kairen personal page - To The Moon

kairen

kairen

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2022-04-27

That's one way to lose all yr gains from tsla😂

Why I Sold Tesla And Bought Ford

2022-03-28

To the moonnnn🚀🚀🚀🛸🛸🛸

AMC Stock Surged More Than 13% in Morning Trading

2022-03-24

Lol what a scam and yet people still invest in nikola😂

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-08-19

Undervalued af

Is Tesla Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued? Expect Further Volatility With The NHTSA Probe

2021-02-02

Don't trust cnbc

These two indicators could determine whether the GameStop rally is near its end

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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and Tesla. Yet, business is business, and my intuition and research is telling me to make this change.</li><li>In the following piece, I will expound on why I have decided to take profits on my Tesla position and start a new position in Ford.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924d44c1e072e2ad774acb68c4b49fe9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>What Happened?</b></p><p>Today, I took profits on my long-term position in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and used a portion of the proceeds to start a position in Ford (NYSE:F). In the following sections, I will explain my reasoning for making this move.</p><p><b>You must take profits to make profits</b></p><p>I often quote my father, who was my mentor and an outstanding stockbroker. One of his mantras was &#34;You have to take profits to make profits.&#34; The meaning behind this is the fact it&#39;s all &#34;unrealized&#34; paper gains until you actually sell the security and transfer the proceeds into your checking account and/or into another investment. Further, he was very disciplined regarding when profits should be taken and why. Fortunately, I fell in love with my Tesla position and have held it way longer than my father ever would have, making it one of my most lucrative investments. Nevertheless, I endured several drawdowns over the years. Now, with Musk buying Twitter (TWTR) by pledging an additional $45 billion worth of Tesla shares, I have decided to take profits and sit this one out amongst other reasons. Let me explain.</p><p><b>Musk&#39;s highly leveraged Tesla position increases risk</b></p><p>Elon is buying a majority of Twitter by taking out a $49 billion margin loan against his Tesla shares. He already has pledged a substantial amount of Tesla shares previously, bringing his margin total to $89 billion. Further, Musk is the first lienholder on the Twitter position. He is on the hook for essentially the first $33 billion of Twitter, if by some chance they can&#39;t pay the bills.</p><p>Musk has already stated it&#39;s not about the money to him, so that doesn&#39;t necessarily give me a nice warm fuzzy feeling about the prospects. Further, if for some unforeseen reason Tesla shares fall and Musk gets a margin call, that would be a major debacle. It has happened before. Nearly 10 years ago to the day, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters demoted its founder and chairman, Robert Stiller, and its lead director, William Davis, after the high-flying coffee company&#39;s share-price plunged forced the men into emergency stock sales resulting from margin calls. In fact, many companies have banned the practice at this point. Now, this is definitely a &#34;backburner&#34; type issue as Musk is constantly receiving new shares and options, yet it is there in the back of my mind. Further, I really don&#39;t find the new Cybertruck appealing. I like Ford&#39;s F150 Lightning pickup, which leads me to my next point.</p><p><b>The competition has finally arrived</b></p><p>The Ford F150 Lightning is now officially in production. I have done my research on the truck and I love it. Ford CEO Jim Farley said on Monday:</p><blockquote><i>The company is not joking around by saying the electric F-150 lightning could be as big a product for the automaker as the Model T back in 1908.</i></blockquote><p>I would have to agree. Ford plans to scale production of the F-150 Lightning even faster than competitors, with plans to boost manufacturing of the Lightning at a plant in Dearborn to 150,000 units in the next year, up from an initial target of 40,000 vehicles.</p><p>What&#39;s more, Ford has secured the lithium-ion batteries needed to meet its expected level of production of 150,000 units next year. Moreover, the company plans to prioritize supplies of semiconductor chips toward the F-150 Lightning.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42cd5b5effe20ffbbd01bed01c0e3bc\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Ford F150 Lightning Pickup (Ford website)</span></p><p>The response has been so overwhelming, Ford is no longer taking retail reservations at this time. Additionally, Ford isn&#39;t the only competition. As I&#39;m sure you are aware, there is a plethora of new EV vehicle entrants into the race. The primary reason I&#39;ve chosen to switch from Tesla to Ford is the product. Secondarily, is valuation. Let me explain.</p><p><b>Two completely different animals when it comes to valuation</b></p><p>Tesla trades at 16 times sales while Ford currently trading at 0.47 times sales. Basically, making Ford the Rodney Dangerfield of EV players – “Ford don&#39;t get no respect!” Ha! Now, Tesla may very well deserve its elevated valuation based on its growth rate trajectory and the value of said future cash flows. Nonetheless, under the current Federal Reserve regime, the value of these future cash flows may be diminished greatly by inflation and increased interest rates. I am making a conscious effort to reduce my exposure to &#34;long-duration assets.&#34; Let me explain why Ford presents a better opportunity under current conditions.</p><p><b>Ford significantly undervalued</b></p><p>First of all, Ford is basically trading for a song at the present valuation. Ford&#39;s forward P/E of 6.57 is just over a third of the current S&amp;P 500 Forward P/E of 19.44. The stock is trading for 1.2 times book of $12.14. If ever there was a bargain basement buying opportunity in Ford, this is it.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecd5be52cd449328e56f792ebe9ad27\" tg-width=\"467\" tg-height=\"134\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Ford Fundamentals (Finviz)</span></p><p>On top of this, management has done an excellent job of cleaning up the balance sheet. The company maintains a fortress balance sheet with $11.63 per share in cash alone. This helps me not just sleep well, but sleep like a baby at night. Furthermore, the stock has sold off substantially since the start of the year and appears to me to be at an inflection point.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5faca498ac9117d6d6aebc61f4c22dea\" tg-width=\"278\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Ford 2022 Performance (Finviz)</span></p><p>With the stock trading for rock bottom pricing and having the weak hands thoroughly shaken out over the last few months by the insipid macro environment, I suggest now is an excellent time to start a position heading into earnings. One of my top investing mentors, Sir John Templeton&#39;s quote of &#34;Buy at the point of maximum pessimism&#34; seems quite apropos. The market just experienced a 7 to 1 advance/decline trading day today with 7 stocks down for every 1 stock up. This qualifies as a substantial washout in my book. The baby has definitely been thrown out with the bath water in my book. Furthermore, the Ford CEO Jim Farley is a salesman extraordinaire.</p><p><b>Ford CEO Jim Farley is special</b></p><p>Ford&#39;s CEO Jim Farley has personality for days and is extremely competitive. His statement that the Ford F150 Lightning will be bigger than the model T is the proof in the pudding of what I say. Not to mention the electrifying Ford Mustang Mach-E which definitely lives up to the hype.</p><p>Farley has captured the attention of all, rivaling the likes of P.T. Barnum in some ways, much like his famous cousin Chris Farley of Saturday Night Live, who I absolutely adored. Yet, don&#39;t get me wrong, he has the wherewithal and business acumen to back it up. His career in automobiles was inspired by his grandfather who began working for Ford in 1914. I have faith that Farley will be able to present the best case for the company on the upcoming earnings call. Ford is due to report earnings on April 27th after the close.</p><p><b>Ford Earnings Preview</b></p><p>The following table details Ford&#39;s expected earnings estimates.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5856ccd7559c4442c6cfac6efae3d8\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"242\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>You can see that there have been six downward revisions over the last 90 days. With the stock down significantly going into earnings and expectations diminished, I see the company beating estimates and rising. Even so, the real focus will be on guidance, which has already &#34;quasi&#34; been announced with them revealing they will produce 150,000 F150 Lightning pickups rather than the original 40,000. I am expecting Ford to pop on earnings. This is why I made the move to sell Tesla and buy Ford ahead of the announcement. Nonetheless, I have only bought one-third of the position in order to reduce risk. In these situations where I have a positive outlook on earnings, I will divide the buys into thirds. One-third before earnings to gain a foothold, one-third after earnings, and one-third in reserve to buy on any future potential weakness. I always suggest layering into new positions over time to reduce risk. Now let&#39;s wrap it up.</p><p><b>Wrap up</b></p><p>I love Elon Musk and all that he has done for the country and the world frankly. Even so, adding Twitter to his endeavors in addition to Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, The Boring Company, and any others I may have forgotten, I think he may be reaching his limit. Further, he definitely has maxed out his Tesla margin credit card at this point, which gives me pause. Yet, the primary factor that sealed the deal for me was what I believe is Ford&#39;s superior product, the F150 Lightning, which I plan to buy as soon as available. On top of this, Ford&#39;s conservative valuation was a major selling point as well. The valuation factor is of particular import to me based on the recent change in the Federal Reserve&#39;s regime, from Dove to Hawk. And finally, I made this move in order to cash in and &#34;realize&#34; the substantial gains I had with my long-term Tesla position. I have held it in a tax advantaged account, so the capital gains created were not an issue for me. I bring this up because this transaction is particular to my unique situation. It may not be appropriate for all investors. That is why you should always consult a financial advisor before making any decisions regarding your investments. Thank you for your time and consideration in reading this article. I hope I provided some tidbit of value with this effort.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why I Sold Tesla And Bought Ford</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I Sold Tesla And Bought Ford\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-27 17:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503886-sold-tesla-bought-ford-stock><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTuesday, I sold out of my Tesla position and used a portion of the proceeds to start a position in Ford.Don’t get me wrong, I love Elon Musk and Tesla. Yet, business is business, and my ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503886-sold-tesla-bought-ford-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503886-sold-tesla-bought-ford-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2230432994","content_text":"SummaryTuesday, I sold out of my Tesla position and used a portion of the proceeds to start a position in Ford.Don’t get me wrong, I love Elon Musk and Tesla. Yet, business is business, and my intuition and research is telling me to make this change.In the following piece, I will expound on why I have decided to take profits on my Tesla position and start a new position in Ford.jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWhat Happened?Today, I took profits on my long-term position in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and used a portion of the proceeds to start a position in Ford (NYSE:F). In the following sections, I will explain my reasoning for making this move.You must take profits to make profitsI often quote my father, who was my mentor and an outstanding stockbroker. One of his mantras was \"You have to take profits to make profits.\" The meaning behind this is the fact it's all \"unrealized\" paper gains until you actually sell the security and transfer the proceeds into your checking account and/or into another investment. Further, he was very disciplined regarding when profits should be taken and why. Fortunately, I fell in love with my Tesla position and have held it way longer than my father ever would have, making it one of my most lucrative investments. Nevertheless, I endured several drawdowns over the years. Now, with Musk buying Twitter (TWTR) by pledging an additional $45 billion worth of Tesla shares, I have decided to take profits and sit this one out amongst other reasons. Let me explain.Musk's highly leveraged Tesla position increases riskElon is buying a majority of Twitter by taking out a $49 billion margin loan against his Tesla shares. He already has pledged a substantial amount of Tesla shares previously, bringing his margin total to $89 billion. Further, Musk is the first lienholder on the Twitter position. He is on the hook for essentially the first $33 billion of Twitter, if by some chance they can't pay the bills.Musk has already stated it's not about the money to him, so that doesn't necessarily give me a nice warm fuzzy feeling about the prospects. Further, if for some unforeseen reason Tesla shares fall and Musk gets a margin call, that would be a major debacle. It has happened before. Nearly 10 years ago to the day, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters demoted its founder and chairman, Robert Stiller, and its lead director, William Davis, after the high-flying coffee company's share-price plunged forced the men into emergency stock sales resulting from margin calls. In fact, many companies have banned the practice at this point. Now, this is definitely a \"backburner\" type issue as Musk is constantly receiving new shares and options, yet it is there in the back of my mind. Further, I really don't find the new Cybertruck appealing. I like Ford's F150 Lightning pickup, which leads me to my next point.The competition has finally arrivedThe Ford F150 Lightning is now officially in production. I have done my research on the truck and I love it. Ford CEO Jim Farley said on Monday:The company is not joking around by saying the electric F-150 lightning could be as big a product for the automaker as the Model T back in 1908.I would have to agree. Ford plans to scale production of the F-150 Lightning even faster than competitors, with plans to boost manufacturing of the Lightning at a plant in Dearborn to 150,000 units in the next year, up from an initial target of 40,000 vehicles.What's more, Ford has secured the lithium-ion batteries needed to meet its expected level of production of 150,000 units next year. Moreover, the company plans to prioritize supplies of semiconductor chips toward the F-150 Lightning.Ford F150 Lightning Pickup (Ford website)The response has been so overwhelming, Ford is no longer taking retail reservations at this time. Additionally, Ford isn't the only competition. As I'm sure you are aware, there is a plethora of new EV vehicle entrants into the race. The primary reason I've chosen to switch from Tesla to Ford is the product. Secondarily, is valuation. Let me explain.Two completely different animals when it comes to valuationTesla trades at 16 times sales while Ford currently trading at 0.47 times sales. Basically, making Ford the Rodney Dangerfield of EV players – “Ford don't get no respect!” Ha! Now, Tesla may very well deserve its elevated valuation based on its growth rate trajectory and the value of said future cash flows. Nonetheless, under the current Federal Reserve regime, the value of these future cash flows may be diminished greatly by inflation and increased interest rates. I am making a conscious effort to reduce my exposure to \"long-duration assets.\" Let me explain why Ford presents a better opportunity under current conditions.Ford significantly undervaluedFirst of all, Ford is basically trading for a song at the present valuation. Ford's forward P/E of 6.57 is just over a third of the current S&P 500 Forward P/E of 19.44. The stock is trading for 1.2 times book of $12.14. If ever there was a bargain basement buying opportunity in Ford, this is it.Ford Fundamentals (Finviz)On top of this, management has done an excellent job of cleaning up the balance sheet. The company maintains a fortress balance sheet with $11.63 per share in cash alone. This helps me not just sleep well, but sleep like a baby at night. Furthermore, the stock has sold off substantially since the start of the year and appears to me to be at an inflection point.Ford 2022 Performance (Finviz)With the stock trading for rock bottom pricing and having the weak hands thoroughly shaken out over the last few months by the insipid macro environment, I suggest now is an excellent time to start a position heading into earnings. One of my top investing mentors, Sir John Templeton's quote of \"Buy at the point of maximum pessimism\" seems quite apropos. The market just experienced a 7 to 1 advance/decline trading day today with 7 stocks down for every 1 stock up. This qualifies as a substantial washout in my book. The baby has definitely been thrown out with the bath water in my book. Furthermore, the Ford CEO Jim Farley is a salesman extraordinaire.Ford CEO Jim Farley is specialFord's CEO Jim Farley has personality for days and is extremely competitive. His statement that the Ford F150 Lightning will be bigger than the model T is the proof in the pudding of what I say. Not to mention the electrifying Ford Mustang Mach-E which definitely lives up to the hype.Farley has captured the attention of all, rivaling the likes of P.T. Barnum in some ways, much like his famous cousin Chris Farley of Saturday Night Live, who I absolutely adored. Yet, don't get me wrong, he has the wherewithal and business acumen to back it up. His career in automobiles was inspired by his grandfather who began working for Ford in 1914. I have faith that Farley will be able to present the best case for the company on the upcoming earnings call. Ford is due to report earnings on April 27th after the close.Ford Earnings PreviewThe following table details Ford's expected earnings estimates.Seeking AlphaYou can see that there have been six downward revisions over the last 90 days. With the stock down significantly going into earnings and expectations diminished, I see the company beating estimates and rising. Even so, the real focus will be on guidance, which has already \"quasi\" been announced with them revealing they will produce 150,000 F150 Lightning pickups rather than the original 40,000. I am expecting Ford to pop on earnings. This is why I made the move to sell Tesla and buy Ford ahead of the announcement. Nonetheless, I have only bought one-third of the position in order to reduce risk. In these situations where I have a positive outlook on earnings, I will divide the buys into thirds. One-third before earnings to gain a foothold, one-third after earnings, and one-third in reserve to buy on any future potential weakness. I always suggest layering into new positions over time to reduce risk. Now let's wrap it up.Wrap upI love Elon Musk and all that he has done for the country and the world frankly. Even so, adding Twitter to his endeavors in addition to Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, The Boring Company, and any others I may have forgotten, I think he may be reaching his limit. Further, he definitely has maxed out his Tesla margin credit card at this point, which gives me pause. Yet, the primary factor that sealed the deal for me was what I believe is Ford's superior product, the F150 Lightning, which I plan to buy as soon as available. On top of this, Ford's conservative valuation was a major selling point as well. The valuation factor is of particular import to me based on the recent change in the Federal Reserve's regime, from Dove to Hawk. And finally, I made this move in order to cash in and \"realize\" the substantial gains I had with my long-term Tesla position. I have held it in a tax advantaged account, so the capital gains created were not an issue for me. I bring this up because this transaction is particular to my unique situation. It may not be appropriate for all investors. That is why you should always consult a financial advisor before making any decisions regarding your investments. Thank you for your time and consideration in reading this article. I hope I provided some tidbit of value with this effort.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010752065,"gmtCreate":1648476809997,"gmtModify":1676534342741,"author":{"id":"3563100164937908","authorId":"3563100164937908","name":"kairen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9eea2ab527271a7eb39fde522276459","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563100164937908","authorIdStr":"3563100164937908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moonnnn🚀🚀🚀🛸🛸🛸","listText":"To the moonnnn🚀🚀🚀🛸🛸🛸","text":"To the moonnnn🚀🚀🚀🛸🛸🛸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010752065","repostId":"1165236361","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165236361","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648476322,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165236361?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-28 22:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Surged More Than 13% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165236361","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMC stock surged more than 13% in morning trading after the company's CEO Adam Aron discussed potent","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>AMC stock surged more than 13% in morning trading after the company&#39;s CEO Adam Aron discussed potential future investments to capitalize on the interest of retail investors.</p><p>Per a report by Reuters, Aron stated: &#34;I&#39;d like to think there will be more third-party external M&amp;A announcements going forward where AMC can reach for the stars and intriguing investments that have potentially attractive returns&#34;.</p><p>&#34;Transformational M&amp;A is mandatory. Our shareholder base has given us capital to deploy with the clear expectation that we are ... going to do exciting things with the money they entrusted to us,&#34; Aron told Reuters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c4f060728f7f84a82ffc1e0f41ade30\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Surged More Than 13% in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Surged More Than 13% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-28 22:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>AMC stock surged more than 13% in morning trading after the company&#39;s CEO Adam Aron discussed potential future investments to capitalize on the interest of retail investors.</p><p>Per a report by Reuters, Aron stated: &#34;I&#39;d like to think there will be more third-party external M&amp;A announcements going forward where AMC can reach for the stars and intriguing investments that have potentially attractive returns&#34;.</p><p>&#34;Transformational M&amp;A is mandatory. Our shareholder base has given us capital to deploy with the clear expectation that we are ... going to do exciting things with the money they entrusted to us,&#34; Aron told Reuters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c4f060728f7f84a82ffc1e0f41ade30\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165236361","content_text":"AMC stock surged more than 13% in morning trading after the company's CEO Adam Aron discussed potential future investments to capitalize on the interest of retail investors.Per a report by Reuters, Aron stated: \"I'd like to think there will be more third-party external M&A announcements going forward where AMC can reach for the stars and intriguing investments that have potentially attractive returns\".\"Transformational M&A is mandatory. Our shareholder base has given us capital to deploy with the clear expectation that we are ... going to do exciting things with the money they entrusted to us,\" Aron told Reuters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037272308,"gmtCreate":1648129765849,"gmtModify":1676534307419,"author":{"id":"3563100164937908","authorId":"3563100164937908","name":"kairen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9eea2ab527271a7eb39fde522276459","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563100164937908","authorIdStr":"3563100164937908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol what a scam and yet people still invest in nikola😂","listText":"Lol what a scam and yet people still invest in nikola😂","text":"Lol what a scam and yet people still invest in nikola😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037272308","repostId":"1116637975","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838313291,"gmtCreate":1629373383613,"gmtModify":1676530019300,"author":{"id":"3563100164937908","authorId":"3563100164937908","name":"kairen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9eea2ab527271a7eb39fde522276459","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563100164937908","authorIdStr":"3563100164937908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Undervalued af","listText":"Undervalued af","text":"Undervalued af","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838313291","repostId":"1165430007","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165430007","pubTimestamp":1629344293,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165430007?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 11:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Tesla Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued? Expect Further Volatility With The NHTSA Probe","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165430007","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla continues to lead global electric vehicle sales, with more than 386,000 units deliver","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla continues to lead global electric vehicle sales, with more than 386,000 units delivered in the first half of the year.</li>\n <li>With its valuation currently close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined, it is likely Tesla's growth prospects are already priced in.</li>\n <li>Yet, headwinds ranging from supply chain disruptions and production delays to the most recent NHTSA probe on Tesla's autopilot system have put pressure on its valuation time and time again.</li>\n <li>Further volatility is expected in the near term as investors continue to mull on the outcome of the ongoing NHTSA investigation on Tesla's autopilot system, as any regulatory limits on the feature could lead to adverse repercussions to the EV maker's outlook.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d224f361e446270181483dd4b0064fe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Tesla (TSLA) continues to lead global electric vehicle (“EV”) sales this quarter, with record production and deliveries of 206,421 and 201,250 units, respectively, during the second quarter alone. Combined with the 180,338 and 184,800 units produced and delivered during the first quarter, Tesla is steadily progressing towards its current year guidance of growing deliveries by 50% year-over-year, which translates to approximately 750,000 vehicles, following the 36% annual growth observed in 2020. Deliveries during the first half of 2021 were already up by more than 115% from last year, leading to year-to-date profits of more than $1.6 billion already, which is a first in Tesla history.</p>\n<p>While the first profitable year for Tesla in 2020 was scrutinized by investors for being generated primarily from the sale of automotive regulatory credits instead of actual EV sales, the narrative has largely improved in recent quarters with significant expansion of auto gross profit margins excluding the impact from credit sales. Management had attributed the improvements realized to date to better cost optimization across the production line, coupled with strong production and delivery volumes which continue to be a strong indicator of progress towards scale.</p>\n<p>Yet, the industry leader, like many of its peers, has warned of the increasing pressures that the ongoing chip supply shortage is placing on its efforts to address the massive backlog of demand observed across its business, including both EV and energy generation and storage sales. The ongoing delays related to the deployment of its 4680 battery cells have also inadvertently increased uncertainty over the production and delivery timelines pertaining to the Semis and Cybertruck. And most recently, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (“NHTSA”) formal probe into Tesla’s Autopilot system following almost a dozen collisions that have resulted in serious injuries and even fatality has also sent Tesla shares on the&nbsp;largest intraday landslide&nbsp;in more than three months on Monday.</p>\n<p>As Elon Musk had said at the recent earnings call, Tesla continues to benefit from the&nbsp;inflection point of public sentiment towards EVs, and this has been proven through the EV maker’s strength in delivery volumes achieved to date. However, Tesla’s strong financial prospects are likely to have been priced in by investors long ago based on the stock’s sky-high valuation. And what awaits is more volatility in the near term as investors mull for more insight on the ongoing supply chain disruptions and regulatory limits on Tesla’s Autopilot or Full Self-Driving (“FSD”) system, its most prized marketing feature.</p>\n<p><b>A Recap on Tesla’s Financial Prospects</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s second quarter results remain in line with consensus expectations, as well as our base case forecast outlined in our&nbsp;recent coverage&nbsp;on the stock. And further opportunities are in store for Tesla to grow both its top and bottom lines, as global demand for EVs and green energy solutions continue to accelerate as we embark on a decade charged with mandates to combat climate change.</p>\n<p>With the transportation sector currently accounting for one of the largest portions of global greenhouse gas emissions (“GHG”), global EV adoption continues to play a critical role in decarbonizing the economy. And this is reflected through the stringent emissions standards and favorable financial incentives on EV and green energy solution purchases implemented by governments across large economies, including the U.S., China, and Europe, in recent years. Combined with continuous improvements made to battery cell technology to elongate range and lower related manufacturing costs to achieve price parity with traditional ICE vehicles, EVs have become a viable choice for consideration amongst car buyers.</p>\n<p>The change in public sentiment towards EVs has accelerated its adoption by at least five years compared to earlier projections, with global EV sales expected to&nbsp;outpace gasoline engines&nbsp;by the end of the decade. Global EV sales are forecasted to jump from 3.1 million units in 2020 towards&nbsp;14 million units by 2025&nbsp;and up to145 million units by the end of the decade, representing significant additional growth opportunities for Tesla. And&nbsp;China and Europe&nbsp;are expected to lead global EV adoption in the first half of the decade, with the&nbsp;U.S.– Tesla’s strongest market – to pick up and lead in the latter half of the decade.</p>\n<p>Taking into consideration the above industry trends and Tesla’s growth trajectory with continued expansion of its product and service offerings across some of the largest and fastest-growing EV markets, our base case forecast projects total automotive revenues of $41.4 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of approximately 20% towards $158.3 billion by 2030. Service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, as they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services; our base case forecast projects $3.7 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $14.0 billion by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0fd06a72dda831c5075fcebc8f9a94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla has also been experiencing pent-up demand for its energy generation and storage solutions in recent quarters. The&nbsp;Megapack&nbsp;is already sold out until next year, while the&nbsp;Powerwall&nbsp;is already accumulating a backlog of orders. This is consistent with market expectations on the broader growth across the green energy storage sector, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% through to 2030. The storage solutions sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of at least 20% through to 2026. Based on Tesla’s current production capacity on the two leading products in its energy generation and storage solutions business, combined with the market outlook on global demand, our base case forecast projects energy generation and storage solutions revenues of $3.1 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of 9% towards $4.7 billion by the end of the decade. The growth assumption applied is consistent with market trends predicted for both the green energy generation and storage sectors, discounted for the ongoing supply chain impacts related to the global semiconductor shortage, which may require a reallocation of resources to prioritize vehicle production instead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d485578bc99838455b9aa0b4872890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p>Cost of revenues as a percentage of total revenues are expected to improve overtime as well due to cost efficiencies achieved through economies of scale as Tesla’s vehicle and energy generation and storage solutions sales continue to ramp up. Specifically, auto gross profit margins are expected to gradually climb towards 25%, excluding credit sales, in the long run as battery costs continue to lower over time with technological enhancements, and overall production costs improve with scale. Our forecast projects total cost of sales of $37.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of 18.4% towards $134.4 billion by 2030, which is consistent with expectations of further margin expansion in the long run.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c020719512f5ba9f58ec93c13cfc9cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p>Operating expenses are also expected to see meaningful decline over the forecasted period, especially selling, general and administrative (“SG&amp;A”) expenses as operations become more efficient with scale, even with additional headcount that may be needed in the long run to support further expansion in the Asia Pacific region like&nbsp;India. Meanwhile, research and development (“R&amp;D”) spending are expected to remain elevated at current levels in proportion to total revenues to support ongoing technological improvements required for sustainable growth across its automotive and energy generation and storage solutions businesses. As a result, total operating expenses of $6.7 billion are projected for 2021, with growth at a CAGR of 18.2% towards $24.7 billion by 2030.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/257781f38934090ec17fe0c9a6741e58\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p>Combined with other nominal expenses related to financing and other ancillary activities, our forecast projects net income of $3.4 billion for 2021, which is approximatelytriple2020’s net income and consistent with Tesla’s strong sales momentum observed in the first half of the year. The bottom line is expected to further grow towards $13.2 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up for both its EVs and energy generation and storage systems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fffa7c8bd115bdc41dfb1ce06c5be8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"217\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p><i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11327582fa264fd0fb4536a9feeda72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p><b>Recurring Volatility Due to Regulatory Probes and Supply Chain Disruptions</b></p>\n<p>Yet, recent headwinds related to ongoing supply chain disruptions, production delays, international expansion woes, and the NHTSA’s formal probe into Tesla’s FSD system have triggered a drop in Tesla’s share price to the sub-$700 level almost immediately following the respective announcements every time. And the trend may indicate that the EV maker’s promising financial outlook from a fundamental point of view had already been priced into its share performance by investors long ago, as its recent price appreciations have been unable to retain momentum, showing almost no resistance to any news.</p>\n<p><b>NHTSA Probe</b></p>\n<p>Musk may have spoken too soon with his recent claim that U.S. regulation is likely not a “fundamental limiter” for Tesla. Following the NHTSA’s announcement of a formal investigation into Tesla’s autopilot system on Monday, the stock immediately retracted by as much as 5.7%. This was the biggest intraday decline&nbsp;since June, when more than 285,000 Tesla’s sold in China were recalled to address safety issue related to the vehicles’ autopilot systems. The NHTSA’s investigation covers about 765,000 Tesla vehicles from model years 2014 to 2021, and could potentially lead to mass recalls. With FSD and autopilot being Tesla’s most-prized features, any&nbsp;formal regulatory limits&nbsp;on them could result in large setbacks for the EV maker.</p>\n<p><b>China Sales Decline</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s shares also&nbsp;plunged by more than 5%&nbsp;in May following reports that vehicle orders in China declined by almost 30% compared to April. The drop in sales of China-made Teslas to the local market continued into July with a&nbsp;69% plunge&nbsp;from June’s sales – only 8,621 Tesla vehicles produced in Shanghai were sold to the local market, while units exported to Europe increased by almost four times to 24,347. Tesla is also starting to feel the heat of competition in the Chinese market, with domestic peers like Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI), NIO(NYSE:NIO), and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV)delivering similar volumes to the domestic market in July, compared to previous months where Tesla’s China sales outperformed by multiple times. In response to the falling sales volumes in the world’s largest and fastest-growing EV market, Tesla China has released a statement indicating hopes to recuperate its lost sales from the first half of the year with the recently launched Model Y, which comes with an affordable price tag to “attract more internal combustion engine car owners to embrace the electric vehicles”. But with the ongoing regulatory crackdown in China and a government that is favoring the growth of home-bred EV makers, combined with the run of negative press ranging from the&nbsp;April protest&nbsp;at the Shanghai Auto Show to the June recall of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China, Tesla may continue to face some headwinds in its second-biggest market outside of the U.S., subjecting the EV maker’s stock to further volatility in the near-term.</p>\n<p><b>Supply Chain Disruptions and Production Delays</b></p>\n<p>The ongoing global chip supply shortage that has sent the shares of every automaker on a plunge-spree following warnings by management at their respective earnings calls may also be coming for Tesla. Although the EV maker has, in previous quarters, been able to manage the supply chain bottleneck and maintain production by diligently updating its software to be compatible with new chips sourced from different suppliers, Musk has warned of more extreme pressures ahead during the second quarter earnings call, and more recently, on Twitter while calling out its suppliers&nbsp;Renesas and Bosch. In addition to&nbsp;price hikes&nbsp;on some Tesla vehicle models announced in May due to the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the energy generation, and storage solutions arm of the business is also starting to experience difficulties in securing the semiconductors needed to manufacture the Powerwall, which is currently accumulating a significant backlog as the company continues to prioritize allocation of available chips to manufacturing cars. The continuous delay in volume production of the 4680 battery cells due to cell supply bottlenecks and engineering problems, which have inadvertently pushed back the production of Tesla Semis and the Cybertruck to at least the end of 2022, has also left a sour taste in investors’ mouths. Some analysts have even lowered their price targets and downgraded ratings on the stock following the delays that have rolled on from one quarter to another.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f4a3a7f437eac9e91a5e7323a60155\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p>\n<p>Our outlook on Tesla remains neutral, with a price target range of $657.60 to $691.45 based on an estimated equity value of $651.0 billion to $684.5 billion. This compares to Tesla’s share price of approximately $651 at the time of writing.</p>\n<p>Our valuation is derived from a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a 10-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections for Tesla as discussed in earlier sections. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in our valuation analysis, which is consistent with the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations, offset by the recent volatility observed on the company’s share performance.</p>\n<p>Our analysis also assumes an EV/EBITDA multiple of 69.3x to 73.2x. As the industry leader in terms of revenues and EV sales, Tesla’s forward-looking EV/EBITDA multiple continues to lead its peers’. However, the EV maker’s valuation has experienced significant volatility in the past year, with the multiple ranging from a&nbsp;low of 39.7x to a high of beyond 100x. The exit multiple used in computing our price target range is based on the average observed in the last three months, which is reflective of Tesla’s recent financial performance, its growth prospects compared to industry peers, as well as the stock’s volatility in response to recent news developments.</p>\n<p><i>i. Valuation Analysis:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07d856bb74f8d9f4b1d3bbee983955cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p>\n<p><i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da9215b39b7df35ddd7a00a7e5d96716\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>With its valuation close to the&nbsp;total size of the most reputable legacy automakers&nbsp;in the U.S. and Europe combined, it is evident that Tesla’s promising prospects related to continued sales growth, global expansion, and the deployment of cutting-edge battery cell and autonomous driving technology have already been priced in. What awaits is whether its current share price of nearly $700 is sustainable in the long run, which depends significantly on materialization of its growth prospects outlined above. But with recent headwinds related to supply chain bottlenecks and regulatory probes, which have caused Tesla’s share price to tumble time and time again, further volatility is expected in the near term. This holds especially true as investors continue to mull on the outcome of the ongoing global chip supply shortage, production delays on the 4680 battery cells and related new vehicle programs, and more recently, the NHTSA’s investigation on Tesla’s autopilot system, which could lead to significant impacts to its EV sales in the U.S. – its largest market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued? Expect Further Volatility With The NHTSA Probe</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued? Expect Further Volatility With The NHTSA Probe\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-19 11:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450426-tesla-stock-overvalued-undervalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla continues to lead global electric vehicle sales, with more than 386,000 units delivered in the first half of the year.\nWith its valuation currently close to the total size of the most ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450426-tesla-stock-overvalued-undervalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450426-tesla-stock-overvalued-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165430007","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla continues to lead global electric vehicle sales, with more than 386,000 units delivered in the first half of the year.\nWith its valuation currently close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined, it is likely Tesla's growth prospects are already priced in.\nYet, headwinds ranging from supply chain disruptions and production delays to the most recent NHTSA probe on Tesla's autopilot system have put pressure on its valuation time and time again.\nFurther volatility is expected in the near term as investors continue to mull on the outcome of the ongoing NHTSA investigation on Tesla's autopilot system, as any regulatory limits on the feature could lead to adverse repercussions to the EV maker's outlook.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nTesla (TSLA) continues to lead global electric vehicle (“EV”) sales this quarter, with record production and deliveries of 206,421 and 201,250 units, respectively, during the second quarter alone. Combined with the 180,338 and 184,800 units produced and delivered during the first quarter, Tesla is steadily progressing towards its current year guidance of growing deliveries by 50% year-over-year, which translates to approximately 750,000 vehicles, following the 36% annual growth observed in 2020. Deliveries during the first half of 2021 were already up by more than 115% from last year, leading to year-to-date profits of more than $1.6 billion already, which is a first in Tesla history.\nWhile the first profitable year for Tesla in 2020 was scrutinized by investors for being generated primarily from the sale of automotive regulatory credits instead of actual EV sales, the narrative has largely improved in recent quarters with significant expansion of auto gross profit margins excluding the impact from credit sales. Management had attributed the improvements realized to date to better cost optimization across the production line, coupled with strong production and delivery volumes which continue to be a strong indicator of progress towards scale.\nYet, the industry leader, like many of its peers, has warned of the increasing pressures that the ongoing chip supply shortage is placing on its efforts to address the massive backlog of demand observed across its business, including both EV and energy generation and storage sales. The ongoing delays related to the deployment of its 4680 battery cells have also inadvertently increased uncertainty over the production and delivery timelines pertaining to the Semis and Cybertruck. And most recently, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (“NHTSA”) formal probe into Tesla’s Autopilot system following almost a dozen collisions that have resulted in serious injuries and even fatality has also sent Tesla shares on the largest intraday landslide in more than three months on Monday.\nAs Elon Musk had said at the recent earnings call, Tesla continues to benefit from the inflection point of public sentiment towards EVs, and this has been proven through the EV maker’s strength in delivery volumes achieved to date. However, Tesla’s strong financial prospects are likely to have been priced in by investors long ago based on the stock’s sky-high valuation. And what awaits is more volatility in the near term as investors mull for more insight on the ongoing supply chain disruptions and regulatory limits on Tesla’s Autopilot or Full Self-Driving (“FSD”) system, its most prized marketing feature.\nA Recap on Tesla’s Financial Prospects\nTesla’s second quarter results remain in line with consensus expectations, as well as our base case forecast outlined in our recent coverage on the stock. And further opportunities are in store for Tesla to grow both its top and bottom lines, as global demand for EVs and green energy solutions continue to accelerate as we embark on a decade charged with mandates to combat climate change.\nWith the transportation sector currently accounting for one of the largest portions of global greenhouse gas emissions (“GHG”), global EV adoption continues to play a critical role in decarbonizing the economy. And this is reflected through the stringent emissions standards and favorable financial incentives on EV and green energy solution purchases implemented by governments across large economies, including the U.S., China, and Europe, in recent years. Combined with continuous improvements made to battery cell technology to elongate range and lower related manufacturing costs to achieve price parity with traditional ICE vehicles, EVs have become a viable choice for consideration amongst car buyers.\nThe change in public sentiment towards EVs has accelerated its adoption by at least five years compared to earlier projections, with global EV sales expected to outpace gasoline engines by the end of the decade. Global EV sales are forecasted to jump from 3.1 million units in 2020 towards 14 million units by 2025 and up to145 million units by the end of the decade, representing significant additional growth opportunities for Tesla. And China and Europe are expected to lead global EV adoption in the first half of the decade, with the U.S.– Tesla’s strongest market – to pick up and lead in the latter half of the decade.\nTaking into consideration the above industry trends and Tesla’s growth trajectory with continued expansion of its product and service offerings across some of the largest and fastest-growing EV markets, our base case forecast projects total automotive revenues of $41.4 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of approximately 20% towards $158.3 billion by 2030. Service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, as they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services; our base case forecast projects $3.7 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $14.0 billion by the end of the decade.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts\nTesla has also been experiencing pent-up demand for its energy generation and storage solutions in recent quarters. The Megapack is already sold out until next year, while the Powerwall is already accumulating a backlog of orders. This is consistent with market expectations on the broader growth across the green energy storage sector, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% through to 2030. The storage solutions sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of at least 20% through to 2026. Based on Tesla’s current production capacity on the two leading products in its energy generation and storage solutions business, combined with the market outlook on global demand, our base case forecast projects energy generation and storage solutions revenues of $3.1 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of 9% towards $4.7 billion by the end of the decade. The growth assumption applied is consistent with market trends predicted for both the green energy generation and storage sectors, discounted for the ongoing supply chain impacts related to the global semiconductor shortage, which may require a reallocation of resources to prioritize vehicle production instead.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nCost of revenues as a percentage of total revenues are expected to improve overtime as well due to cost efficiencies achieved through economies of scale as Tesla’s vehicle and energy generation and storage solutions sales continue to ramp up. Specifically, auto gross profit margins are expected to gradually climb towards 25%, excluding credit sales, in the long run as battery costs continue to lower over time with technological enhancements, and overall production costs improve with scale. Our forecast projects total cost of sales of $37.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of 18.4% towards $134.4 billion by 2030, which is consistent with expectations of further margin expansion in the long run.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nOperating expenses are also expected to see meaningful decline over the forecasted period, especially selling, general and administrative (“SG&A”) expenses as operations become more efficient with scale, even with additional headcount that may be needed in the long run to support further expansion in the Asia Pacific region like India. Meanwhile, research and development (“R&D”) spending are expected to remain elevated at current levels in proportion to total revenues to support ongoing technological improvements required for sustainable growth across its automotive and energy generation and storage solutions businesses. As a result, total operating expenses of $6.7 billion are projected for 2021, with growth at a CAGR of 18.2% towards $24.7 billion by 2030.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nCombined with other nominal expenses related to financing and other ancillary activities, our forecast projects net income of $3.4 billion for 2021, which is approximatelytriple2020’s net income and consistent with Tesla’s strong sales momentum observed in the first half of the year. The bottom line is expected to further grow towards $13.2 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up for both its EVs and energy generation and storage systems.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nRecurring Volatility Due to Regulatory Probes and Supply Chain Disruptions\nYet, recent headwinds related to ongoing supply chain disruptions, production delays, international expansion woes, and the NHTSA’s formal probe into Tesla’s FSD system have triggered a drop in Tesla’s share price to the sub-$700 level almost immediately following the respective announcements every time. And the trend may indicate that the EV maker’s promising financial outlook from a fundamental point of view had already been priced into its share performance by investors long ago, as its recent price appreciations have been unable to retain momentum, showing almost no resistance to any news.\nNHTSA Probe\nMusk may have spoken too soon with his recent claim that U.S. regulation is likely not a “fundamental limiter” for Tesla. Following the NHTSA’s announcement of a formal investigation into Tesla’s autopilot system on Monday, the stock immediately retracted by as much as 5.7%. This was the biggest intraday decline since June, when more than 285,000 Tesla’s sold in China were recalled to address safety issue related to the vehicles’ autopilot systems. The NHTSA’s investigation covers about 765,000 Tesla vehicles from model years 2014 to 2021, and could potentially lead to mass recalls. With FSD and autopilot being Tesla’s most-prized features, any formal regulatory limits on them could result in large setbacks for the EV maker.\nChina Sales Decline\nTesla’s shares also plunged by more than 5% in May following reports that vehicle orders in China declined by almost 30% compared to April. The drop in sales of China-made Teslas to the local market continued into July with a 69% plunge from June’s sales – only 8,621 Tesla vehicles produced in Shanghai were sold to the local market, while units exported to Europe increased by almost four times to 24,347. Tesla is also starting to feel the heat of competition in the Chinese market, with domestic peers like Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI), NIO(NYSE:NIO), and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV)delivering similar volumes to the domestic market in July, compared to previous months where Tesla’s China sales outperformed by multiple times. In response to the falling sales volumes in the world’s largest and fastest-growing EV market, Tesla China has released a statement indicating hopes to recuperate its lost sales from the first half of the year with the recently launched Model Y, which comes with an affordable price tag to “attract more internal combustion engine car owners to embrace the electric vehicles”. But with the ongoing regulatory crackdown in China and a government that is favoring the growth of home-bred EV makers, combined with the run of negative press ranging from the April protest at the Shanghai Auto Show to the June recall of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China, Tesla may continue to face some headwinds in its second-biggest market outside of the U.S., subjecting the EV maker’s stock to further volatility in the near-term.\nSupply Chain Disruptions and Production Delays\nThe ongoing global chip supply shortage that has sent the shares of every automaker on a plunge-spree following warnings by management at their respective earnings calls may also be coming for Tesla. Although the EV maker has, in previous quarters, been able to manage the supply chain bottleneck and maintain production by diligently updating its software to be compatible with new chips sourced from different suppliers, Musk has warned of more extreme pressures ahead during the second quarter earnings call, and more recently, on Twitter while calling out its suppliers Renesas and Bosch. In addition to price hikes on some Tesla vehicle models announced in May due to the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the energy generation, and storage solutions arm of the business is also starting to experience difficulties in securing the semiconductors needed to manufacture the Powerwall, which is currently accumulating a significant backlog as the company continues to prioritize allocation of available chips to manufacturing cars. The continuous delay in volume production of the 4680 battery cells due to cell supply bottlenecks and engineering problems, which have inadvertently pushed back the production of Tesla Semis and the Cybertruck to at least the end of 2022, has also left a sour taste in investors’ mouths. Some analysts have even lowered their price targets and downgraded ratings on the stock following the delays that have rolled on from one quarter to another.\nValuation\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nOur outlook on Tesla remains neutral, with a price target range of $657.60 to $691.45 based on an estimated equity value of $651.0 billion to $684.5 billion. This compares to Tesla’s share price of approximately $651 at the time of writing.\nOur valuation is derived from a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a 10-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections for Tesla as discussed in earlier sections. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in our valuation analysis, which is consistent with the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations, offset by the recent volatility observed on the company’s share performance.\nOur analysis also assumes an EV/EBITDA multiple of 69.3x to 73.2x. As the industry leader in terms of revenues and EV sales, Tesla’s forward-looking EV/EBITDA multiple continues to lead its peers’. However, the EV maker’s valuation has experienced significant volatility in the past year, with the multiple ranging from a low of 39.7x to a high of beyond 100x. The exit multiple used in computing our price target range is based on the average observed in the last three months, which is reflective of Tesla’s recent financial performance, its growth prospects compared to industry peers, as well as the stock’s volatility in response to recent news developments.\ni. Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion\nWith its valuation close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined, it is evident that Tesla’s promising prospects related to continued sales growth, global expansion, and the deployment of cutting-edge battery cell and autonomous driving technology have already been priced in. What awaits is whether its current share price of nearly $700 is sustainable in the long run, which depends significantly on materialization of its growth prospects outlined above. But with recent headwinds related to supply chain bottlenecks and regulatory probes, which have caused Tesla’s share price to tumble time and time again, further volatility is expected in the near term. This holds especially true as investors continue to mull on the outcome of the ongoing global chip supply shortage, production delays on the 4680 battery cells and related new vehicle programs, and more recently, the NHTSA’s investigation on Tesla’s autopilot system, which could lead to significant impacts to its EV sales in the U.S. – its largest market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315633430,"gmtCreate":1612240055520,"gmtModify":1704868602239,"author":{"id":"3563100164937908","authorId":"3563100164937908","name":"kairen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9eea2ab527271a7eb39fde522276459","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563100164937908","authorIdStr":"3563100164937908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don't trust cnbc","listText":"Don't trust cnbc","text":"Don't trust cnbc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315633430","repostId":"1183603122","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183603122","pubTimestamp":1612231847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183603122?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-02 10:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These two indicators could determine whether the GameStop rally is near its end","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183603122","media":"cnbc","summary":"GameStopstock has defied gravity in the past and it could again, but there are some signs its stock ","content":"<div>\n<p>GameStopstock has defied gravity in the past and it could again, but there are some signs its stock may be topping out, some strategists say.\nGameStop was down sharply Monday, off more than 30% at $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/these-two-indicators-could-determine-whether-the-gamestop-rally-is-near-its-end.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These two indicators could determine whether the GameStop rally is near its end</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese two indicators could determine whether the GameStop rally is near its end\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-02 10:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/these-two-indicators-could-determine-whether-the-gamestop-rally-is-near-its-end.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GameStopstock has defied gravity in the past and it could again, but there are some signs its stock may be topping out, some strategists say.\nGameStop was down sharply Monday, off more than 30% at $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/these-two-indicators-could-determine-whether-the-gamestop-rally-is-near-its-end.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e61da95c6d1c4c736e3146c02db8a9","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/these-two-indicators-could-determine-whether-the-gamestop-rally-is-near-its-end.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1183603122","content_text":"GameStopstock has defied gravity in the past and it could again, but there are some signs its stock may be topping out, some strategists say.\nGameStop was down sharply Monday, off more than 30% at $225.\n\nIt has been the poster child of a group of stocks shorted by hedge funds but snapped up by small investors who helped drive share prices higher.\nThe price rises even more when hedge funds are forced to buy the stock to cover short positions.\nGameStop has had a wild ride. It surged to an all time high of $483 last week but appeared to run out of steam Monday, falling well below its Friday close of $325.\nThe stock closed at $17.25 on Jan. 4, the first trading day of 2021.\n2021.\n1. Call options cost trends\nWhen viewing a stock that's had a long speculative run, it's important to look at the call options on the stock when it stops moving higher, said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG.\nCall options, which allow but don't require investors to buy at a certain price, are basically bets the stock will continue to rise. Aggressive buying in those options can help speculative stocks go even higher until the options themselves become too expensive.\n\"The high price of the options themselves are likely to cause the stock to top and then sell-off or at least go sideways and ultimately sell off as the speculative mania moves on to different areas,\" said Emanuel. \"We're seeing this today in silver.\"\nSilver has been the target of aggressive buying and has also caught the interest of traders in the Reddit forum WallStreetBets.iShares Silver Trust ETFjumped 7.1% Monday and call buying continued to surge at record levels in the ETF.\nRetail investors have been very active in options, opening and closing positions in the same day in many speculative stocks. As for GameStop, Emanuel said the calls appear to have become too expensive to remain a source of further upside for the stock.\nFor instance, the at-the-money Feb. 19 call options — that is, an option with a strike price that's identical to the company's current share price — in GameStop at Friday's close cost about 50% of the company's actual share price, Emanuel said.\nTo give that perspective, the S&P 500 Feb. 19 at-the-money options cost just 2.5% of the S&P's value.\n\"It's difficult to maintain a level of speculative interest when it becomes too expensive to buy call options,\" said Emanuel.\n2. Reduced demand\nTwo other factors depressing the stock are the reduction in short interest as investors were forced to cover shorts, and that brokers have restricted buying in GameStop, Emanuel added. That takes away an important source of demand, and speculative investors become less interested, he said.\n\"It seems the Reddit army is moving into a different area,\" said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group. \"The stock is going down and the volatility goes down.\"\n\"Usually when a stock goes down, volatility goes up,\" he said. \"In this instance, as people leave and move into other areas, you're going to see the stock price and volatility go down.\"\nThe 30-day implied volatility in GameStop options on Friday was 430% but it declined to 375% and continues to fall, Murphy said. Implied volatility measures the expected swing in a stock's price.\nThat means investors are now expecting a move as big as 23% in the stock in one day in either direction, down from 27% on Friday.\nOf course, GameStop has also been affected by trading restrictions.\nRobinhood and other online brokers last week limited buying in GameStop, but allowed investors to sell. Brokers raised margin requirements on GameStop and some other stocks.\nIt's very hard to tell whether GameStop was near a top because of restrictions on the stock, said Steve Massocca, managing director with Wedbush Securities.\n\"When you tell people they can't buy but can only sell, of course it usually goes in one direction,\" he said.\nRobinhood on Monday continued to prohibit clientswho own more than 20 shares of GameStop from buying any new shares.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9037272308,"gmtCreate":1648129765849,"gmtModify":1676534307419,"author":{"id":"3563100164937908","authorId":"3563100164937908","name":"kairen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9eea2ab527271a7eb39fde522276459","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563100164937908","authorIdStr":"3563100164937908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol what a scam and yet people still invest in nikola😂","listText":"Lol what a scam and yet people still invest in nikola😂","text":"Lol what a scam and yet people still invest in nikola😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037272308","repostId":"1116637975","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116637975","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648129337,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116637975?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-24 21:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nikola Surged Nearly 14% in Morning Trading after Confirming Production of Electric Truck","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116637975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nikola surged nearly 14% in morning trading after confirming production of electric truck.Nikola con","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nikola surged nearly 14% in morning trading after confirming production of electric truck.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175e695cf86efe8b6a24aedb130039ac\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nikola confirmed it started production of its electric commercial truck, the Tre, last week at its Coolidge, Ariz., factory.</p><p>The EV maker had aimed for that when it reported fourth-quarter earnings last month &#34;We are laser-focused on delivering vehicles and generating revenue as the global leader in zero-emission transportation and energy infrastructure solutions,&#34; a spokesperson said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nikola Surged Nearly 14% in Morning Trading after Confirming Production of Electric Truck </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNikola Surged Nearly 14% in Morning Trading after Confirming Production of Electric Truck \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-24 21:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nikola surged nearly 14% in morning trading after confirming production of electric truck.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175e695cf86efe8b6a24aedb130039ac\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nikola confirmed it started production of its electric commercial truck, the Tre, last week at its Coolidge, Ariz., factory.</p><p>The EV maker had aimed for that when it reported fourth-quarter earnings last month &#34;We are laser-focused on delivering vehicles and generating revenue as the global leader in zero-emission transportation and energy infrastructure solutions,&#34; a spokesperson said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKLA":"Nikola Corporation"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116637975","content_text":"Nikola surged nearly 14% in morning trading after confirming production of electric truck.Nikola confirmed it started production of its electric commercial truck, the Tre, last week at its Coolidge, Ariz., factory.The EV maker had aimed for that when it reported fourth-quarter earnings last month \"We are laser-focused on delivering vehicles and generating revenue as the global leader in zero-emission transportation and energy infrastructure solutions,\" a spokesperson said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010752065,"gmtCreate":1648476809997,"gmtModify":1676534342741,"author":{"id":"3563100164937908","authorId":"3563100164937908","name":"kairen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9eea2ab527271a7eb39fde522276459","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563100164937908","authorIdStr":"3563100164937908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moonnnn🚀🚀🚀🛸🛸🛸","listText":"To the moonnnn🚀🚀🚀🛸🛸🛸","text":"To the moonnnn🚀🚀🚀🛸🛸🛸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010752065","repostId":"1165236361","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315633430,"gmtCreate":1612240055520,"gmtModify":1704868602239,"author":{"id":"3563100164937908","authorId":"3563100164937908","name":"kairen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9eea2ab527271a7eb39fde522276459","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563100164937908","authorIdStr":"3563100164937908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don't trust cnbc","listText":"Don't trust cnbc","text":"Don't trust cnbc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315633430","repostId":"1183603122","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183603122","pubTimestamp":1612231847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183603122?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-02 10:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These two indicators could determine whether the GameStop rally is near its end","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183603122","media":"cnbc","summary":"GameStopstock has defied gravity in the past and it could again, but there are some signs its stock ","content":"<div>\n<p>GameStopstock has defied gravity in the past and it could again, but there are some signs its stock may be topping out, some strategists say.\nGameStop was down sharply Monday, off more than 30% at $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/these-two-indicators-could-determine-whether-the-gamestop-rally-is-near-its-end.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These two indicators could determine whether the GameStop rally is near its end</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese two indicators could determine whether the GameStop rally is near its end\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-02 10:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/these-two-indicators-could-determine-whether-the-gamestop-rally-is-near-its-end.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GameStopstock has defied gravity in the past and it could again, but there are some signs its stock may be topping out, some strategists say.\nGameStop was down sharply Monday, off more than 30% at $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/these-two-indicators-could-determine-whether-the-gamestop-rally-is-near-its-end.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e61da95c6d1c4c736e3146c02db8a9","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/these-two-indicators-could-determine-whether-the-gamestop-rally-is-near-its-end.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1183603122","content_text":"GameStopstock has defied gravity in the past and it could again, but there are some signs its stock may be topping out, some strategists say.\nGameStop was down sharply Monday, off more than 30% at $225.\n\nIt has been the poster child of a group of stocks shorted by hedge funds but snapped up by small investors who helped drive share prices higher.\nThe price rises even more when hedge funds are forced to buy the stock to cover short positions.\nGameStop has had a wild ride. It surged to an all time high of $483 last week but appeared to run out of steam Monday, falling well below its Friday close of $325.\nThe stock closed at $17.25 on Jan. 4, the first trading day of 2021.\n2021.\n1. Call options cost trends\nWhen viewing a stock that's had a long speculative run, it's important to look at the call options on the stock when it stops moving higher, said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG.\nCall options, which allow but don't require investors to buy at a certain price, are basically bets the stock will continue to rise. Aggressive buying in those options can help speculative stocks go even higher until the options themselves become too expensive.\n\"The high price of the options themselves are likely to cause the stock to top and then sell-off or at least go sideways and ultimately sell off as the speculative mania moves on to different areas,\" said Emanuel. \"We're seeing this today in silver.\"\nSilver has been the target of aggressive buying and has also caught the interest of traders in the Reddit forum WallStreetBets.iShares Silver Trust ETFjumped 7.1% Monday and call buying continued to surge at record levels in the ETF.\nRetail investors have been very active in options, opening and closing positions in the same day in many speculative stocks. As for GameStop, Emanuel said the calls appear to have become too expensive to remain a source of further upside for the stock.\nFor instance, the at-the-money Feb. 19 call options — that is, an option with a strike price that's identical to the company's current share price — in GameStop at Friday's close cost about 50% of the company's actual share price, Emanuel said.\nTo give that perspective, the S&P 500 Feb. 19 at-the-money options cost just 2.5% of the S&P's value.\n\"It's difficult to maintain a level of speculative interest when it becomes too expensive to buy call options,\" said Emanuel.\n2. Reduced demand\nTwo other factors depressing the stock are the reduction in short interest as investors were forced to cover shorts, and that brokers have restricted buying in GameStop, Emanuel added. That takes away an important source of demand, and speculative investors become less interested, he said.\n\"It seems the Reddit army is moving into a different area,\" said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group. \"The stock is going down and the volatility goes down.\"\n\"Usually when a stock goes down, volatility goes up,\" he said. \"In this instance, as people leave and move into other areas, you're going to see the stock price and volatility go down.\"\nThe 30-day implied volatility in GameStop options on Friday was 430% but it declined to 375% and continues to fall, Murphy said. Implied volatility measures the expected swing in a stock's price.\nThat means investors are now expecting a move as big as 23% in the stock in one day in either direction, down from 27% on Friday.\nOf course, GameStop has also been affected by trading restrictions.\nRobinhood and other online brokers last week limited buying in GameStop, but allowed investors to sell. Brokers raised margin requirements on GameStop and some other stocks.\nIt's very hard to tell whether GameStop was near a top because of restrictions on the stock, said Steve Massocca, managing director with Wedbush Securities.\n\"When you tell people they can't buy but can only sell, of course it usually goes in one direction,\" he said.\nRobinhood on Monday continued to prohibit clientswho own more than 20 shares of GameStop from buying any new shares.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838313291,"gmtCreate":1629373383613,"gmtModify":1676530019300,"author":{"id":"3563100164937908","authorId":"3563100164937908","name":"kairen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9eea2ab527271a7eb39fde522276459","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563100164937908","authorIdStr":"3563100164937908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Undervalued af","listText":"Undervalued af","text":"Undervalued af","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838313291","repostId":"1165430007","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165430007","pubTimestamp":1629344293,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165430007?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 11:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Tesla Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued? Expect Further Volatility With The NHTSA Probe","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165430007","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla continues to lead global electric vehicle sales, with more than 386,000 units deliver","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla continues to lead global electric vehicle sales, with more than 386,000 units delivered in the first half of the year.</li>\n <li>With its valuation currently close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined, it is likely Tesla's growth prospects are already priced in.</li>\n <li>Yet, headwinds ranging from supply chain disruptions and production delays to the most recent NHTSA probe on Tesla's autopilot system have put pressure on its valuation time and time again.</li>\n <li>Further volatility is expected in the near term as investors continue to mull on the outcome of the ongoing NHTSA investigation on Tesla's autopilot system, as any regulatory limits on the feature could lead to adverse repercussions to the EV maker's outlook.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d224f361e446270181483dd4b0064fe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Tesla (TSLA) continues to lead global electric vehicle (“EV”) sales this quarter, with record production and deliveries of 206,421 and 201,250 units, respectively, during the second quarter alone. Combined with the 180,338 and 184,800 units produced and delivered during the first quarter, Tesla is steadily progressing towards its current year guidance of growing deliveries by 50% year-over-year, which translates to approximately 750,000 vehicles, following the 36% annual growth observed in 2020. Deliveries during the first half of 2021 were already up by more than 115% from last year, leading to year-to-date profits of more than $1.6 billion already, which is a first in Tesla history.</p>\n<p>While the first profitable year for Tesla in 2020 was scrutinized by investors for being generated primarily from the sale of automotive regulatory credits instead of actual EV sales, the narrative has largely improved in recent quarters with significant expansion of auto gross profit margins excluding the impact from credit sales. Management had attributed the improvements realized to date to better cost optimization across the production line, coupled with strong production and delivery volumes which continue to be a strong indicator of progress towards scale.</p>\n<p>Yet, the industry leader, like many of its peers, has warned of the increasing pressures that the ongoing chip supply shortage is placing on its efforts to address the massive backlog of demand observed across its business, including both EV and energy generation and storage sales. The ongoing delays related to the deployment of its 4680 battery cells have also inadvertently increased uncertainty over the production and delivery timelines pertaining to the Semis and Cybertruck. And most recently, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (“NHTSA”) formal probe into Tesla’s Autopilot system following almost a dozen collisions that have resulted in serious injuries and even fatality has also sent Tesla shares on the&nbsp;largest intraday landslide&nbsp;in more than three months on Monday.</p>\n<p>As Elon Musk had said at the recent earnings call, Tesla continues to benefit from the&nbsp;inflection point of public sentiment towards EVs, and this has been proven through the EV maker’s strength in delivery volumes achieved to date. However, Tesla’s strong financial prospects are likely to have been priced in by investors long ago based on the stock’s sky-high valuation. And what awaits is more volatility in the near term as investors mull for more insight on the ongoing supply chain disruptions and regulatory limits on Tesla’s Autopilot or Full Self-Driving (“FSD”) system, its most prized marketing feature.</p>\n<p><b>A Recap on Tesla’s Financial Prospects</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s second quarter results remain in line with consensus expectations, as well as our base case forecast outlined in our&nbsp;recent coverage&nbsp;on the stock. And further opportunities are in store for Tesla to grow both its top and bottom lines, as global demand for EVs and green energy solutions continue to accelerate as we embark on a decade charged with mandates to combat climate change.</p>\n<p>With the transportation sector currently accounting for one of the largest portions of global greenhouse gas emissions (“GHG”), global EV adoption continues to play a critical role in decarbonizing the economy. And this is reflected through the stringent emissions standards and favorable financial incentives on EV and green energy solution purchases implemented by governments across large economies, including the U.S., China, and Europe, in recent years. Combined with continuous improvements made to battery cell technology to elongate range and lower related manufacturing costs to achieve price parity with traditional ICE vehicles, EVs have become a viable choice for consideration amongst car buyers.</p>\n<p>The change in public sentiment towards EVs has accelerated its adoption by at least five years compared to earlier projections, with global EV sales expected to&nbsp;outpace gasoline engines&nbsp;by the end of the decade. Global EV sales are forecasted to jump from 3.1 million units in 2020 towards&nbsp;14 million units by 2025&nbsp;and up to145 million units by the end of the decade, representing significant additional growth opportunities for Tesla. And&nbsp;China and Europe&nbsp;are expected to lead global EV adoption in the first half of the decade, with the&nbsp;U.S.– Tesla’s strongest market – to pick up and lead in the latter half of the decade.</p>\n<p>Taking into consideration the above industry trends and Tesla’s growth trajectory with continued expansion of its product and service offerings across some of the largest and fastest-growing EV markets, our base case forecast projects total automotive revenues of $41.4 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of approximately 20% towards $158.3 billion by 2030. Service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, as they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services; our base case forecast projects $3.7 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $14.0 billion by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0fd06a72dda831c5075fcebc8f9a94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla has also been experiencing pent-up demand for its energy generation and storage solutions in recent quarters. The&nbsp;Megapack&nbsp;is already sold out until next year, while the&nbsp;Powerwall&nbsp;is already accumulating a backlog of orders. This is consistent with market expectations on the broader growth across the green energy storage sector, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% through to 2030. The storage solutions sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of at least 20% through to 2026. Based on Tesla’s current production capacity on the two leading products in its energy generation and storage solutions business, combined with the market outlook on global demand, our base case forecast projects energy generation and storage solutions revenues of $3.1 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of 9% towards $4.7 billion by the end of the decade. The growth assumption applied is consistent with market trends predicted for both the green energy generation and storage sectors, discounted for the ongoing supply chain impacts related to the global semiconductor shortage, which may require a reallocation of resources to prioritize vehicle production instead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d485578bc99838455b9aa0b4872890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p>Cost of revenues as a percentage of total revenues are expected to improve overtime as well due to cost efficiencies achieved through economies of scale as Tesla’s vehicle and energy generation and storage solutions sales continue to ramp up. Specifically, auto gross profit margins are expected to gradually climb towards 25%, excluding credit sales, in the long run as battery costs continue to lower over time with technological enhancements, and overall production costs improve with scale. Our forecast projects total cost of sales of $37.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of 18.4% towards $134.4 billion by 2030, which is consistent with expectations of further margin expansion in the long run.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c020719512f5ba9f58ec93c13cfc9cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p>Operating expenses are also expected to see meaningful decline over the forecasted period, especially selling, general and administrative (“SG&amp;A”) expenses as operations become more efficient with scale, even with additional headcount that may be needed in the long run to support further expansion in the Asia Pacific region like&nbsp;India. Meanwhile, research and development (“R&amp;D”) spending are expected to remain elevated at current levels in proportion to total revenues to support ongoing technological improvements required for sustainable growth across its automotive and energy generation and storage solutions businesses. As a result, total operating expenses of $6.7 billion are projected for 2021, with growth at a CAGR of 18.2% towards $24.7 billion by 2030.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/257781f38934090ec17fe0c9a6741e58\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p>Combined with other nominal expenses related to financing and other ancillary activities, our forecast projects net income of $3.4 billion for 2021, which is approximatelytriple2020’s net income and consistent with Tesla’s strong sales momentum observed in the first half of the year. The bottom line is expected to further grow towards $13.2 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up for both its EVs and energy generation and storage systems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fffa7c8bd115bdc41dfb1ce06c5be8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"217\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p><i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11327582fa264fd0fb4536a9feeda72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p>\n<p><b>Recurring Volatility Due to Regulatory Probes and Supply Chain Disruptions</b></p>\n<p>Yet, recent headwinds related to ongoing supply chain disruptions, production delays, international expansion woes, and the NHTSA’s formal probe into Tesla’s FSD system have triggered a drop in Tesla’s share price to the sub-$700 level almost immediately following the respective announcements every time. And the trend may indicate that the EV maker’s promising financial outlook from a fundamental point of view had already been priced into its share performance by investors long ago, as its recent price appreciations have been unable to retain momentum, showing almost no resistance to any news.</p>\n<p><b>NHTSA Probe</b></p>\n<p>Musk may have spoken too soon with his recent claim that U.S. regulation is likely not a “fundamental limiter” for Tesla. Following the NHTSA’s announcement of a formal investigation into Tesla’s autopilot system on Monday, the stock immediately retracted by as much as 5.7%. This was the biggest intraday decline&nbsp;since June, when more than 285,000 Tesla’s sold in China were recalled to address safety issue related to the vehicles’ autopilot systems. The NHTSA’s investigation covers about 765,000 Tesla vehicles from model years 2014 to 2021, and could potentially lead to mass recalls. With FSD and autopilot being Tesla’s most-prized features, any&nbsp;formal regulatory limits&nbsp;on them could result in large setbacks for the EV maker.</p>\n<p><b>China Sales Decline</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s shares also&nbsp;plunged by more than 5%&nbsp;in May following reports that vehicle orders in China declined by almost 30% compared to April. The drop in sales of China-made Teslas to the local market continued into July with a&nbsp;69% plunge&nbsp;from June’s sales – only 8,621 Tesla vehicles produced in Shanghai were sold to the local market, while units exported to Europe increased by almost four times to 24,347. Tesla is also starting to feel the heat of competition in the Chinese market, with domestic peers like Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI), NIO(NYSE:NIO), and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV)delivering similar volumes to the domestic market in July, compared to previous months where Tesla’s China sales outperformed by multiple times. In response to the falling sales volumes in the world’s largest and fastest-growing EV market, Tesla China has released a statement indicating hopes to recuperate its lost sales from the first half of the year with the recently launched Model Y, which comes with an affordable price tag to “attract more internal combustion engine car owners to embrace the electric vehicles”. But with the ongoing regulatory crackdown in China and a government that is favoring the growth of home-bred EV makers, combined with the run of negative press ranging from the&nbsp;April protest&nbsp;at the Shanghai Auto Show to the June recall of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China, Tesla may continue to face some headwinds in its second-biggest market outside of the U.S., subjecting the EV maker’s stock to further volatility in the near-term.</p>\n<p><b>Supply Chain Disruptions and Production Delays</b></p>\n<p>The ongoing global chip supply shortage that has sent the shares of every automaker on a plunge-spree following warnings by management at their respective earnings calls may also be coming for Tesla. Although the EV maker has, in previous quarters, been able to manage the supply chain bottleneck and maintain production by diligently updating its software to be compatible with new chips sourced from different suppliers, Musk has warned of more extreme pressures ahead during the second quarter earnings call, and more recently, on Twitter while calling out its suppliers&nbsp;Renesas and Bosch. In addition to&nbsp;price hikes&nbsp;on some Tesla vehicle models announced in May due to the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the energy generation, and storage solutions arm of the business is also starting to experience difficulties in securing the semiconductors needed to manufacture the Powerwall, which is currently accumulating a significant backlog as the company continues to prioritize allocation of available chips to manufacturing cars. The continuous delay in volume production of the 4680 battery cells due to cell supply bottlenecks and engineering problems, which have inadvertently pushed back the production of Tesla Semis and the Cybertruck to at least the end of 2022, has also left a sour taste in investors’ mouths. Some analysts have even lowered their price targets and downgraded ratings on the stock following the delays that have rolled on from one quarter to another.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f4a3a7f437eac9e91a5e7323a60155\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p>\n<p>Our outlook on Tesla remains neutral, with a price target range of $657.60 to $691.45 based on an estimated equity value of $651.0 billion to $684.5 billion. This compares to Tesla’s share price of approximately $651 at the time of writing.</p>\n<p>Our valuation is derived from a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a 10-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections for Tesla as discussed in earlier sections. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in our valuation analysis, which is consistent with the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations, offset by the recent volatility observed on the company’s share performance.</p>\n<p>Our analysis also assumes an EV/EBITDA multiple of 69.3x to 73.2x. As the industry leader in terms of revenues and EV sales, Tesla’s forward-looking EV/EBITDA multiple continues to lead its peers’. However, the EV maker’s valuation has experienced significant volatility in the past year, with the multiple ranging from a&nbsp;low of 39.7x to a high of beyond 100x. The exit multiple used in computing our price target range is based on the average observed in the last three months, which is reflective of Tesla’s recent financial performance, its growth prospects compared to industry peers, as well as the stock’s volatility in response to recent news developments.</p>\n<p><i>i. Valuation Analysis:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07d856bb74f8d9f4b1d3bbee983955cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p>\n<p><i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da9215b39b7df35ddd7a00a7e5d96716\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>With its valuation close to the&nbsp;total size of the most reputable legacy automakers&nbsp;in the U.S. and Europe combined, it is evident that Tesla’s promising prospects related to continued sales growth, global expansion, and the deployment of cutting-edge battery cell and autonomous driving technology have already been priced in. What awaits is whether its current share price of nearly $700 is sustainable in the long run, which depends significantly on materialization of its growth prospects outlined above. But with recent headwinds related to supply chain bottlenecks and regulatory probes, which have caused Tesla’s share price to tumble time and time again, further volatility is expected in the near term. This holds especially true as investors continue to mull on the outcome of the ongoing global chip supply shortage, production delays on the 4680 battery cells and related new vehicle programs, and more recently, the NHTSA’s investigation on Tesla’s autopilot system, which could lead to significant impacts to its EV sales in the U.S. – its largest market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued? Expect Further Volatility With The NHTSA Probe</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued? Expect Further Volatility With The NHTSA Probe\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-19 11:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450426-tesla-stock-overvalued-undervalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla continues to lead global electric vehicle sales, with more than 386,000 units delivered in the first half of the year.\nWith its valuation currently close to the total size of the most ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450426-tesla-stock-overvalued-undervalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450426-tesla-stock-overvalued-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165430007","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla continues to lead global electric vehicle sales, with more than 386,000 units delivered in the first half of the year.\nWith its valuation currently close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined, it is likely Tesla's growth prospects are already priced in.\nYet, headwinds ranging from supply chain disruptions and production delays to the most recent NHTSA probe on Tesla's autopilot system have put pressure on its valuation time and time again.\nFurther volatility is expected in the near term as investors continue to mull on the outcome of the ongoing NHTSA investigation on Tesla's autopilot system, as any regulatory limits on the feature could lead to adverse repercussions to the EV maker's outlook.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nTesla (TSLA) continues to lead global electric vehicle (“EV”) sales this quarter, with record production and deliveries of 206,421 and 201,250 units, respectively, during the second quarter alone. Combined with the 180,338 and 184,800 units produced and delivered during the first quarter, Tesla is steadily progressing towards its current year guidance of growing deliveries by 50% year-over-year, which translates to approximately 750,000 vehicles, following the 36% annual growth observed in 2020. Deliveries during the first half of 2021 were already up by more than 115% from last year, leading to year-to-date profits of more than $1.6 billion already, which is a first in Tesla history.\nWhile the first profitable year for Tesla in 2020 was scrutinized by investors for being generated primarily from the sale of automotive regulatory credits instead of actual EV sales, the narrative has largely improved in recent quarters with significant expansion of auto gross profit margins excluding the impact from credit sales. Management had attributed the improvements realized to date to better cost optimization across the production line, coupled with strong production and delivery volumes which continue to be a strong indicator of progress towards scale.\nYet, the industry leader, like many of its peers, has warned of the increasing pressures that the ongoing chip supply shortage is placing on its efforts to address the massive backlog of demand observed across its business, including both EV and energy generation and storage sales. The ongoing delays related to the deployment of its 4680 battery cells have also inadvertently increased uncertainty over the production and delivery timelines pertaining to the Semis and Cybertruck. And most recently, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (“NHTSA”) formal probe into Tesla’s Autopilot system following almost a dozen collisions that have resulted in serious injuries and even fatality has also sent Tesla shares on the largest intraday landslide in more than three months on Monday.\nAs Elon Musk had said at the recent earnings call, Tesla continues to benefit from the inflection point of public sentiment towards EVs, and this has been proven through the EV maker’s strength in delivery volumes achieved to date. However, Tesla’s strong financial prospects are likely to have been priced in by investors long ago based on the stock’s sky-high valuation. And what awaits is more volatility in the near term as investors mull for more insight on the ongoing supply chain disruptions and regulatory limits on Tesla’s Autopilot or Full Self-Driving (“FSD”) system, its most prized marketing feature.\nA Recap on Tesla’s Financial Prospects\nTesla’s second quarter results remain in line with consensus expectations, as well as our base case forecast outlined in our recent coverage on the stock. And further opportunities are in store for Tesla to grow both its top and bottom lines, as global demand for EVs and green energy solutions continue to accelerate as we embark on a decade charged with mandates to combat climate change.\nWith the transportation sector currently accounting for one of the largest portions of global greenhouse gas emissions (“GHG”), global EV adoption continues to play a critical role in decarbonizing the economy. And this is reflected through the stringent emissions standards and favorable financial incentives on EV and green energy solution purchases implemented by governments across large economies, including the U.S., China, and Europe, in recent years. Combined with continuous improvements made to battery cell technology to elongate range and lower related manufacturing costs to achieve price parity with traditional ICE vehicles, EVs have become a viable choice for consideration amongst car buyers.\nThe change in public sentiment towards EVs has accelerated its adoption by at least five years compared to earlier projections, with global EV sales expected to outpace gasoline engines by the end of the decade. Global EV sales are forecasted to jump from 3.1 million units in 2020 towards 14 million units by 2025 and up to145 million units by the end of the decade, representing significant additional growth opportunities for Tesla. And China and Europe are expected to lead global EV adoption in the first half of the decade, with the U.S.– Tesla’s strongest market – to pick up and lead in the latter half of the decade.\nTaking into consideration the above industry trends and Tesla’s growth trajectory with continued expansion of its product and service offerings across some of the largest and fastest-growing EV markets, our base case forecast projects total automotive revenues of $41.4 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of approximately 20% towards $158.3 billion by 2030. Service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, as they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services; our base case forecast projects $3.7 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $14.0 billion by the end of the decade.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts\nTesla has also been experiencing pent-up demand for its energy generation and storage solutions in recent quarters. The Megapack is already sold out until next year, while the Powerwall is already accumulating a backlog of orders. This is consistent with market expectations on the broader growth across the green energy storage sector, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% through to 2030. The storage solutions sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of at least 20% through to 2026. Based on Tesla’s current production capacity on the two leading products in its energy generation and storage solutions business, combined with the market outlook on global demand, our base case forecast projects energy generation and storage solutions revenues of $3.1 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of 9% towards $4.7 billion by the end of the decade. The growth assumption applied is consistent with market trends predicted for both the green energy generation and storage sectors, discounted for the ongoing supply chain impacts related to the global semiconductor shortage, which may require a reallocation of resources to prioritize vehicle production instead.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nCost of revenues as a percentage of total revenues are expected to improve overtime as well due to cost efficiencies achieved through economies of scale as Tesla’s vehicle and energy generation and storage solutions sales continue to ramp up. Specifically, auto gross profit margins are expected to gradually climb towards 25%, excluding credit sales, in the long run as battery costs continue to lower over time with technological enhancements, and overall production costs improve with scale. Our forecast projects total cost of sales of $37.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth at a CAGR of 18.4% towards $134.4 billion by 2030, which is consistent with expectations of further margin expansion in the long run.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nOperating expenses are also expected to see meaningful decline over the forecasted period, especially selling, general and administrative (“SG&A”) expenses as operations become more efficient with scale, even with additional headcount that may be needed in the long run to support further expansion in the Asia Pacific region like India. Meanwhile, research and development (“R&D”) spending are expected to remain elevated at current levels in proportion to total revenues to support ongoing technological improvements required for sustainable growth across its automotive and energy generation and storage solutions businesses. As a result, total operating expenses of $6.7 billion are projected for 2021, with growth at a CAGR of 18.2% towards $24.7 billion by 2030.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nCombined with other nominal expenses related to financing and other ancillary activities, our forecast projects net income of $3.4 billion for 2021, which is approximatelytriple2020’s net income and consistent with Tesla’s strong sales momentum observed in the first half of the year. The bottom line is expected to further grow towards $13.2 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up for both its EVs and energy generation and storage systems.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nRecurring Volatility Due to Regulatory Probes and Supply Chain Disruptions\nYet, recent headwinds related to ongoing supply chain disruptions, production delays, international expansion woes, and the NHTSA’s formal probe into Tesla’s FSD system have triggered a drop in Tesla’s share price to the sub-$700 level almost immediately following the respective announcements every time. And the trend may indicate that the EV maker’s promising financial outlook from a fundamental point of view had already been priced into its share performance by investors long ago, as its recent price appreciations have been unable to retain momentum, showing almost no resistance to any news.\nNHTSA Probe\nMusk may have spoken too soon with his recent claim that U.S. regulation is likely not a “fundamental limiter” for Tesla. Following the NHTSA’s announcement of a formal investigation into Tesla’s autopilot system on Monday, the stock immediately retracted by as much as 5.7%. This was the biggest intraday decline since June, when more than 285,000 Tesla’s sold in China were recalled to address safety issue related to the vehicles’ autopilot systems. The NHTSA’s investigation covers about 765,000 Tesla vehicles from model years 2014 to 2021, and could potentially lead to mass recalls. With FSD and autopilot being Tesla’s most-prized features, any formal regulatory limits on them could result in large setbacks for the EV maker.\nChina Sales Decline\nTesla’s shares also plunged by more than 5% in May following reports that vehicle orders in China declined by almost 30% compared to April. The drop in sales of China-made Teslas to the local market continued into July with a 69% plunge from June’s sales – only 8,621 Tesla vehicles produced in Shanghai were sold to the local market, while units exported to Europe increased by almost four times to 24,347. Tesla is also starting to feel the heat of competition in the Chinese market, with domestic peers like Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI), NIO(NYSE:NIO), and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV)delivering similar volumes to the domestic market in July, compared to previous months where Tesla’s China sales outperformed by multiple times. In response to the falling sales volumes in the world’s largest and fastest-growing EV market, Tesla China has released a statement indicating hopes to recuperate its lost sales from the first half of the year with the recently launched Model Y, which comes with an affordable price tag to “attract more internal combustion engine car owners to embrace the electric vehicles”. But with the ongoing regulatory crackdown in China and a government that is favoring the growth of home-bred EV makers, combined with the run of negative press ranging from the April protest at the Shanghai Auto Show to the June recall of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China, Tesla may continue to face some headwinds in its second-biggest market outside of the U.S., subjecting the EV maker’s stock to further volatility in the near-term.\nSupply Chain Disruptions and Production Delays\nThe ongoing global chip supply shortage that has sent the shares of every automaker on a plunge-spree following warnings by management at their respective earnings calls may also be coming for Tesla. Although the EV maker has, in previous quarters, been able to manage the supply chain bottleneck and maintain production by diligently updating its software to be compatible with new chips sourced from different suppliers, Musk has warned of more extreme pressures ahead during the second quarter earnings call, and more recently, on Twitter while calling out its suppliers Renesas and Bosch. In addition to price hikes on some Tesla vehicle models announced in May due to the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the energy generation, and storage solutions arm of the business is also starting to experience difficulties in securing the semiconductors needed to manufacture the Powerwall, which is currently accumulating a significant backlog as the company continues to prioritize allocation of available chips to manufacturing cars. The continuous delay in volume production of the 4680 battery cells due to cell supply bottlenecks and engineering problems, which have inadvertently pushed back the production of Tesla Semis and the Cybertruck to at least the end of 2022, has also left a sour taste in investors’ mouths. Some analysts have even lowered their price targets and downgraded ratings on the stock following the delays that have rolled on from one quarter to another.\nValuation\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nOur outlook on Tesla remains neutral, with a price target range of $657.60 to $691.45 based on an estimated equity value of $651.0 billion to $684.5 billion. This compares to Tesla’s share price of approximately $651 at the time of writing.\nOur valuation is derived from a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a 10-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections for Tesla as discussed in earlier sections. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in our valuation analysis, which is consistent with the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations, offset by the recent volatility observed on the company’s share performance.\nOur analysis also assumes an EV/EBITDA multiple of 69.3x to 73.2x. As the industry leader in terms of revenues and EV sales, Tesla’s forward-looking EV/EBITDA multiple continues to lead its peers’. However, the EV maker’s valuation has experienced significant volatility in the past year, with the multiple ranging from a low of 39.7x to a high of beyond 100x. The exit multiple used in computing our price target range is based on the average observed in the last three months, which is reflective of Tesla’s recent financial performance, its growth prospects compared to industry peers, as well as the stock’s volatility in response to recent news developments.\ni. Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion\nWith its valuation close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined, it is evident that Tesla’s promising prospects related to continued sales growth, global expansion, and the deployment of cutting-edge battery cell and autonomous driving technology have already been priced in. What awaits is whether its current share price of nearly $700 is sustainable in the long run, which depends significantly on materialization of its growth prospects outlined above. But with recent headwinds related to supply chain bottlenecks and regulatory probes, which have caused Tesla’s share price to tumble time and time again, further volatility is expected in the near term. This holds especially true as investors continue to mull on the outcome of the ongoing global chip supply shortage, production delays on the 4680 battery cells and related new vehicle programs, and more recently, the NHTSA’s investigation on Tesla’s autopilot system, which could lead to significant impacts to its EV sales in the U.S. – its largest market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060028561,"gmtCreate":1651072296616,"gmtModify":1676534844833,"author":{"id":"3563100164937908","authorId":"3563100164937908","name":"kairen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9eea2ab527271a7eb39fde522276459","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563100164937908","authorIdStr":"3563100164937908"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That's one way to lose all yr gains from tsla😂","listText":"That's one way to lose all yr gains from tsla😂","text":"That's one way to lose all yr gains from tsla😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060028561","repostId":"2230432994","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2230432994","pubTimestamp":1651050041,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2230432994?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-27 17:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why I Sold Tesla And Bought Ford","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2230432994","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryTuesday, I sold out of my Tesla position and used a portion of the proceeds to start a positi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tuesday, I sold out of my Tesla position and used a portion of the proceeds to start a position in Ford.</li><li>Don’t get me wrong, I love Elon Musk and Tesla. Yet, business is business, and my intuition and research is telling me to make this change.</li><li>In the following piece, I will expound on why I have decided to take profits on my Tesla position and start a new position in Ford.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/924d44c1e072e2ad774acb68c4b49fe9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>What Happened?</b></p><p>Today, I took profits on my long-term position in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and used a portion of the proceeds to start a position in Ford (NYSE:F). In the following sections, I will explain my reasoning for making this move.</p><p><b>You must take profits to make profits</b></p><p>I often quote my father, who was my mentor and an outstanding stockbroker. One of his mantras was &#34;You have to take profits to make profits.&#34; The meaning behind this is the fact it&#39;s all &#34;unrealized&#34; paper gains until you actually sell the security and transfer the proceeds into your checking account and/or into another investment. Further, he was very disciplined regarding when profits should be taken and why. Fortunately, I fell in love with my Tesla position and have held it way longer than my father ever would have, making it one of my most lucrative investments. Nevertheless, I endured several drawdowns over the years. Now, with Musk buying Twitter (TWTR) by pledging an additional $45 billion worth of Tesla shares, I have decided to take profits and sit this one out amongst other reasons. Let me explain.</p><p><b>Musk&#39;s highly leveraged Tesla position increases risk</b></p><p>Elon is buying a majority of Twitter by taking out a $49 billion margin loan against his Tesla shares. He already has pledged a substantial amount of Tesla shares previously, bringing his margin total to $89 billion. Further, Musk is the first lienholder on the Twitter position. He is on the hook for essentially the first $33 billion of Twitter, if by some chance they can&#39;t pay the bills.</p><p>Musk has already stated it&#39;s not about the money to him, so that doesn&#39;t necessarily give me a nice warm fuzzy feeling about the prospects. Further, if for some unforeseen reason Tesla shares fall and Musk gets a margin call, that would be a major debacle. It has happened before. Nearly 10 years ago to the day, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters demoted its founder and chairman, Robert Stiller, and its lead director, William Davis, after the high-flying coffee company&#39;s share-price plunged forced the men into emergency stock sales resulting from margin calls. In fact, many companies have banned the practice at this point. Now, this is definitely a &#34;backburner&#34; type issue as Musk is constantly receiving new shares and options, yet it is there in the back of my mind. Further, I really don&#39;t find the new Cybertruck appealing. I like Ford&#39;s F150 Lightning pickup, which leads me to my next point.</p><p><b>The competition has finally arrived</b></p><p>The Ford F150 Lightning is now officially in production. I have done my research on the truck and I love it. Ford CEO Jim Farley said on Monday:</p><blockquote><i>The company is not joking around by saying the electric F-150 lightning could be as big a product for the automaker as the Model T back in 1908.</i></blockquote><p>I would have to agree. Ford plans to scale production of the F-150 Lightning even faster than competitors, with plans to boost manufacturing of the Lightning at a plant in Dearborn to 150,000 units in the next year, up from an initial target of 40,000 vehicles.</p><p>What&#39;s more, Ford has secured the lithium-ion batteries needed to meet its expected level of production of 150,000 units next year. Moreover, the company plans to prioritize supplies of semiconductor chips toward the F-150 Lightning.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42cd5b5effe20ffbbd01bed01c0e3bc\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Ford F150 Lightning Pickup (Ford website)</span></p><p>The response has been so overwhelming, Ford is no longer taking retail reservations at this time. Additionally, Ford isn&#39;t the only competition. As I&#39;m sure you are aware, there is a plethora of new EV vehicle entrants into the race. The primary reason I&#39;ve chosen to switch from Tesla to Ford is the product. Secondarily, is valuation. Let me explain.</p><p><b>Two completely different animals when it comes to valuation</b></p><p>Tesla trades at 16 times sales while Ford currently trading at 0.47 times sales. Basically, making Ford the Rodney Dangerfield of EV players – “Ford don&#39;t get no respect!” Ha! Now, Tesla may very well deserve its elevated valuation based on its growth rate trajectory and the value of said future cash flows. Nonetheless, under the current Federal Reserve regime, the value of these future cash flows may be diminished greatly by inflation and increased interest rates. I am making a conscious effort to reduce my exposure to &#34;long-duration assets.&#34; Let me explain why Ford presents a better opportunity under current conditions.</p><p><b>Ford significantly undervalued</b></p><p>First of all, Ford is basically trading for a song at the present valuation. Ford&#39;s forward P/E of 6.57 is just over a third of the current S&amp;P 500 Forward P/E of 19.44. The stock is trading for 1.2 times book of $12.14. If ever there was a bargain basement buying opportunity in Ford, this is it.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecd5be52cd449328e56f792ebe9ad27\" tg-width=\"467\" tg-height=\"134\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Ford Fundamentals (Finviz)</span></p><p>On top of this, management has done an excellent job of cleaning up the balance sheet. The company maintains a fortress balance sheet with $11.63 per share in cash alone. This helps me not just sleep well, but sleep like a baby at night. Furthermore, the stock has sold off substantially since the start of the year and appears to me to be at an inflection point.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5faca498ac9117d6d6aebc61f4c22dea\" tg-width=\"278\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Ford 2022 Performance (Finviz)</span></p><p>With the stock trading for rock bottom pricing and having the weak hands thoroughly shaken out over the last few months by the insipid macro environment, I suggest now is an excellent time to start a position heading into earnings. One of my top investing mentors, Sir John Templeton&#39;s quote of &#34;Buy at the point of maximum pessimism&#34; seems quite apropos. The market just experienced a 7 to 1 advance/decline trading day today with 7 stocks down for every 1 stock up. This qualifies as a substantial washout in my book. The baby has definitely been thrown out with the bath water in my book. Furthermore, the Ford CEO Jim Farley is a salesman extraordinaire.</p><p><b>Ford CEO Jim Farley is special</b></p><p>Ford&#39;s CEO Jim Farley has personality for days and is extremely competitive. His statement that the Ford F150 Lightning will be bigger than the model T is the proof in the pudding of what I say. Not to mention the electrifying Ford Mustang Mach-E which definitely lives up to the hype.</p><p>Farley has captured the attention of all, rivaling the likes of P.T. Barnum in some ways, much like his famous cousin Chris Farley of Saturday Night Live, who I absolutely adored. Yet, don&#39;t get me wrong, he has the wherewithal and business acumen to back it up. His career in automobiles was inspired by his grandfather who began working for Ford in 1914. I have faith that Farley will be able to present the best case for the company on the upcoming earnings call. Ford is due to report earnings on April 27th after the close.</p><p><b>Ford Earnings Preview</b></p><p>The following table details Ford&#39;s expected earnings estimates.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5856ccd7559c4442c6cfac6efae3d8\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"242\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>You can see that there have been six downward revisions over the last 90 days. With the stock down significantly going into earnings and expectations diminished, I see the company beating estimates and rising. Even so, the real focus will be on guidance, which has already &#34;quasi&#34; been announced with them revealing they will produce 150,000 F150 Lightning pickups rather than the original 40,000. I am expecting Ford to pop on earnings. This is why I made the move to sell Tesla and buy Ford ahead of the announcement. Nonetheless, I have only bought one-third of the position in order to reduce risk. In these situations where I have a positive outlook on earnings, I will divide the buys into thirds. One-third before earnings to gain a foothold, one-third after earnings, and one-third in reserve to buy on any future potential weakness. I always suggest layering into new positions over time to reduce risk. Now let&#39;s wrap it up.</p><p><b>Wrap up</b></p><p>I love Elon Musk and all that he has done for the country and the world frankly. Even so, adding Twitter to his endeavors in addition to Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, The Boring Company, and any others I may have forgotten, I think he may be reaching his limit. Further, he definitely has maxed out his Tesla margin credit card at this point, which gives me pause. Yet, the primary factor that sealed the deal for me was what I believe is Ford&#39;s superior product, the F150 Lightning, which I plan to buy as soon as available. On top of this, Ford&#39;s conservative valuation was a major selling point as well. The valuation factor is of particular import to me based on the recent change in the Federal Reserve&#39;s regime, from Dove to Hawk. And finally, I made this move in order to cash in and &#34;realize&#34; the substantial gains I had with my long-term Tesla position. I have held it in a tax advantaged account, so the capital gains created were not an issue for me. I bring this up because this transaction is particular to my unique situation. It may not be appropriate for all investors. That is why you should always consult a financial advisor before making any decisions regarding your investments. Thank you for your time and consideration in reading this article. I hope I provided some tidbit of value with this effort.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why I Sold Tesla And Bought Ford</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I Sold Tesla And Bought Ford\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-27 17:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503886-sold-tesla-bought-ford-stock><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTuesday, I sold out of my Tesla position and used a portion of the proceeds to start a position in Ford.Don’t get me wrong, I love Elon Musk and Tesla. Yet, business is business, and my ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503886-sold-tesla-bought-ford-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503886-sold-tesla-bought-ford-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2230432994","content_text":"SummaryTuesday, I sold out of my Tesla position and used a portion of the proceeds to start a position in Ford.Don’t get me wrong, I love Elon Musk and Tesla. Yet, business is business, and my intuition and research is telling me to make this change.In the following piece, I will expound on why I have decided to take profits on my Tesla position and start a new position in Ford.jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWhat Happened?Today, I took profits on my long-term position in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and used a portion of the proceeds to start a position in Ford (NYSE:F). In the following sections, I will explain my reasoning for making this move.You must take profits to make profitsI often quote my father, who was my mentor and an outstanding stockbroker. One of his mantras was \"You have to take profits to make profits.\" The meaning behind this is the fact it's all \"unrealized\" paper gains until you actually sell the security and transfer the proceeds into your checking account and/or into another investment. Further, he was very disciplined regarding when profits should be taken and why. Fortunately, I fell in love with my Tesla position and have held it way longer than my father ever would have, making it one of my most lucrative investments. Nevertheless, I endured several drawdowns over the years. Now, with Musk buying Twitter (TWTR) by pledging an additional $45 billion worth of Tesla shares, I have decided to take profits and sit this one out amongst other reasons. Let me explain.Musk's highly leveraged Tesla position increases riskElon is buying a majority of Twitter by taking out a $49 billion margin loan against his Tesla shares. He already has pledged a substantial amount of Tesla shares previously, bringing his margin total to $89 billion. Further, Musk is the first lienholder on the Twitter position. He is on the hook for essentially the first $33 billion of Twitter, if by some chance they can't pay the bills.Musk has already stated it's not about the money to him, so that doesn't necessarily give me a nice warm fuzzy feeling about the prospects. Further, if for some unforeseen reason Tesla shares fall and Musk gets a margin call, that would be a major debacle. It has happened before. Nearly 10 years ago to the day, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters demoted its founder and chairman, Robert Stiller, and its lead director, William Davis, after the high-flying coffee company's share-price plunged forced the men into emergency stock sales resulting from margin calls. In fact, many companies have banned the practice at this point. Now, this is definitely a \"backburner\" type issue as Musk is constantly receiving new shares and options, yet it is there in the back of my mind. Further, I really don't find the new Cybertruck appealing. I like Ford's F150 Lightning pickup, which leads me to my next point.The competition has finally arrivedThe Ford F150 Lightning is now officially in production. I have done my research on the truck and I love it. Ford CEO Jim Farley said on Monday:The company is not joking around by saying the electric F-150 lightning could be as big a product for the automaker as the Model T back in 1908.I would have to agree. Ford plans to scale production of the F-150 Lightning even faster than competitors, with plans to boost manufacturing of the Lightning at a plant in Dearborn to 150,000 units in the next year, up from an initial target of 40,000 vehicles.What's more, Ford has secured the lithium-ion batteries needed to meet its expected level of production of 150,000 units next year. Moreover, the company plans to prioritize supplies of semiconductor chips toward the F-150 Lightning.Ford F150 Lightning Pickup (Ford website)The response has been so overwhelming, Ford is no longer taking retail reservations at this time. Additionally, Ford isn't the only competition. As I'm sure you are aware, there is a plethora of new EV vehicle entrants into the race. The primary reason I've chosen to switch from Tesla to Ford is the product. Secondarily, is valuation. Let me explain.Two completely different animals when it comes to valuationTesla trades at 16 times sales while Ford currently trading at 0.47 times sales. Basically, making Ford the Rodney Dangerfield of EV players – “Ford don't get no respect!” Ha! Now, Tesla may very well deserve its elevated valuation based on its growth rate trajectory and the value of said future cash flows. Nonetheless, under the current Federal Reserve regime, the value of these future cash flows may be diminished greatly by inflation and increased interest rates. I am making a conscious effort to reduce my exposure to \"long-duration assets.\" Let me explain why Ford presents a better opportunity under current conditions.Ford significantly undervaluedFirst of all, Ford is basically trading for a song at the present valuation. Ford's forward P/E of 6.57 is just over a third of the current S&P 500 Forward P/E of 19.44. The stock is trading for 1.2 times book of $12.14. If ever there was a bargain basement buying opportunity in Ford, this is it.Ford Fundamentals (Finviz)On top of this, management has done an excellent job of cleaning up the balance sheet. The company maintains a fortress balance sheet with $11.63 per share in cash alone. This helps me not just sleep well, but sleep like a baby at night. Furthermore, the stock has sold off substantially since the start of the year and appears to me to be at an inflection point.Ford 2022 Performance (Finviz)With the stock trading for rock bottom pricing and having the weak hands thoroughly shaken out over the last few months by the insipid macro environment, I suggest now is an excellent time to start a position heading into earnings. One of my top investing mentors, Sir John Templeton's quote of \"Buy at the point of maximum pessimism\" seems quite apropos. The market just experienced a 7 to 1 advance/decline trading day today with 7 stocks down for every 1 stock up. This qualifies as a substantial washout in my book. The baby has definitely been thrown out with the bath water in my book. Furthermore, the Ford CEO Jim Farley is a salesman extraordinaire.Ford CEO Jim Farley is specialFord's CEO Jim Farley has personality for days and is extremely competitive. His statement that the Ford F150 Lightning will be bigger than the model T is the proof in the pudding of what I say. Not to mention the electrifying Ford Mustang Mach-E which definitely lives up to the hype.Farley has captured the attention of all, rivaling the likes of P.T. Barnum in some ways, much like his famous cousin Chris Farley of Saturday Night Live, who I absolutely adored. Yet, don't get me wrong, he has the wherewithal and business acumen to back it up. His career in automobiles was inspired by his grandfather who began working for Ford in 1914. I have faith that Farley will be able to present the best case for the company on the upcoming earnings call. Ford is due to report earnings on April 27th after the close.Ford Earnings PreviewThe following table details Ford's expected earnings estimates.Seeking AlphaYou can see that there have been six downward revisions over the last 90 days. With the stock down significantly going into earnings and expectations diminished, I see the company beating estimates and rising. Even so, the real focus will be on guidance, which has already \"quasi\" been announced with them revealing they will produce 150,000 F150 Lightning pickups rather than the original 40,000. I am expecting Ford to pop on earnings. This is why I made the move to sell Tesla and buy Ford ahead of the announcement. Nonetheless, I have only bought one-third of the position in order to reduce risk. In these situations where I have a positive outlook on earnings, I will divide the buys into thirds. One-third before earnings to gain a foothold, one-third after earnings, and one-third in reserve to buy on any future potential weakness. I always suggest layering into new positions over time to reduce risk. Now let's wrap it up.Wrap upI love Elon Musk and all that he has done for the country and the world frankly. Even so, adding Twitter to his endeavors in addition to Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, The Boring Company, and any others I may have forgotten, I think he may be reaching his limit. Further, he definitely has maxed out his Tesla margin credit card at this point, which gives me pause. Yet, the primary factor that sealed the deal for me was what I believe is Ford's superior product, the F150 Lightning, which I plan to buy as soon as available. On top of this, Ford's conservative valuation was a major selling point as well. The valuation factor is of particular import to me based on the recent change in the Federal Reserve's regime, from Dove to Hawk. And finally, I made this move in order to cash in and \"realize\" the substantial gains I had with my long-term Tesla position. I have held it in a tax advantaged account, so the capital gains created were not an issue for me. I bring this up because this transaction is particular to my unique situation. It may not be appropriate for all investors. That is why you should always consult a financial advisor before making any decisions regarding your investments. Thank you for your time and consideration in reading this article. I hope I provided some tidbit of value with this effort.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}