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11:55

Most useless stock to invest in. Why bother to monitor this stock! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.

Alibaba: The Steep Sell-Off Doesn't Make Much Sense

11:54

Most useless stock to invest. Just ignore! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.

Alibaba Integrates E-Commerce Platforms into a Single Business Unit

11-20 10:54

The most useless stock!

Alibaba: The 'Value Play' That Keeps On Disappointing

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Why bother to monitor this stock! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.&nbsp;","listText":"Most useless stock to invest in. Why bother to monitor this stock! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.&nbsp;","text":"Most useless stock to invest in. Why bother to monitor this stock! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373587502981376","repostId":"2485414388","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2485414388","pubTimestamp":1732206600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2485414388?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-22 00:30","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Steep Sell-Off Doesn't Make Much Sense","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485414388","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba stock has cratered recently, and buyers fled after the stock hit its peak in October 2024.The early momentum from China's stimulus measures has dissipated. However, has the market taken the sell-off too far?","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Alibaba stock has cratered recently, and buyers fled after the stock hit its peak in October 2024.</li><li>The early momentum from China's stimulus measures has dissipated. However, has the market taken the sell-off too far?</li><li>Alibaba's monetization has improved, and its cloud segment has remained profitable.</li><li>Its international e-commerce business has also performed admirably, demonstrating its ability to rejuvenate growth.</li><li>I argue why investors who didn't chase the previous surge can consider taking advantage of BABA's recent pessimism.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"5304px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"7952px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>maybefalse</p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <h2>Alibaba Stock: Suffering Another Hammering</h2> <p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited (<span>NYSE:BABA</span>) investors have endured a hammering recently, as the stock's upward momentum peaked in early October 2024. As a result, the early euphoria in BABA has given way to rationalization over its<span> growth profile, notwithstanding its relatively attractive valuation. </span>In my previous Alibaba article<span>, I underscored my confidence about why China's massive stimulus package has spurred investors to return to boost BABA. However, the failed breakout above its $120 resistance zone has led to intense profit-taking over the past seven weeks, as earlier investors likely rotated out. As a result, the stock has dropped firmly into a bear market, declining more than 25% through this week's lows.</span></p> <p>In Alibaba's fiscal second-quarter earnings release, the improved monetization in its Taobao and Tmall Group helped to stabilize its core e-commerce growth drivers. As a reminder, the e-commerce leader instituted a 0.6% software service fee, benefiting its customer management revenue. Accordingly, CMR accounted for more than 75% of its China commerce retail revenue, up 2% YoY. Hence, it mitigated the weakness in its retail segment's direct sales component, although overall revenue retail growth was flat.</p> <p>Therefore, I assess that the significant downside observed over the past couple of months in BABA is likely attributed to lowered optimism on Alibaba's e-commerce growth drivers. Although management expressed confidence in stabilizing its take rates following the implementation of the service fee, further increases seem uncertain, given the intense competitive environment in China's e-commerce market. In addition, it remains to be seen whether the improved purchase momentum from China's 11.11 festival could continue through CY2025, as China's economic and consumer spending recovery has remained uneven.</p> <h2>Alibaba: Needs To Diversify Its Earnings Growth Drivers Better</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/21/51630113-17321747164299164.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Alibaba segment performance (Alibaba filings)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>As seen above, concentration risks in Alibaba's TTG business are expected to hold back the market's confidence in its recovery prospects. Accordingly, Alibaba's TTG segment delivered an adjusted EBITA of RMB44.6B in FQ2, over and above its consolidated adjusted EBITA of RMB40.6B (after inter-segment adjustments). Therefore, Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence Group is far from gaining sufficient momentum to help diversify Alibaba's earnings risk profile. Although its international business (AIDC) posted a 29% surge in revenue growth, it remains a loss-making business.</p> <p>Therefore, I assess that while Alibaba's growth initiatives in its ex-China business have delivered solid momentum, investors are expected to remain cautious about the recovery in its domestic e-commerce business prospects. Despite that, there are sufficient reasons to remain optimistic about Alibaba's overall opportunities. The company has invested significantly to bolster its AI-driven strategy, which is expected to enhance its user engagement and optimize purchase frequencies.</p> <p>Hence, it should help stabilize its GMV growth momentum moving ahead. In addition, Alibaba management has telegraphed its confidence in lifting its monetization opportunities while working to scale its international e-commerce business. However, the need for BABA to manage potentially higher execution risks as it continues investing in loss-making businesses outside of its TTG platform could affect near-term investor sentiments. Given the market's tempered optimism on Alibaba's \"D\" growth grade, it's imperative for the company to demonstrate more resolve in lifting its operating efficiencies to drive profitability accretion.</p> <h2>Alibaba: Lowered Estimates Could Intensify Near-Term Volatility</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/21/51630113-17321762005276847.jpg\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Alibaba estimates (TIKR)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Wall Street's revenue estimates on Alibaba have been downgraded, as analysts parsed the momentum from China's stimulus on its domestic economy. Furthermore, the increased tariffs threat from Trump's return has likely weakened investor sentiments. Despite that, I assess that Alibaba's earnings drivers remain well-anchored in its domestic e-commerce segment. Therefore, I assess that the market could have overstated Alibaba's geopolitical risks.</p> <p>In addition, hedge funds have also returned more favorably to holding Chinese equities in their holdings. The relative valuations between the US market and Chinese equities could also drive a market reallocation into leading companies like BABA. Moreover, management indicated that the company still has $22B remaining in its share repurchase authorization, communicating a substantial war chest for significant dip-buying opportunities.</p> <h2>BABA Stock: Solid Momentum Suggests Investors Aren't Unduly Worried</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/21/51630113-17321766174882634.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>BABA Quant Grades (Seeking Alpha)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Consequently, I assess that the market remains relatively optimistic about BABA stock. As seen above, the stock boasts a \"B-\" momentum grade, corroborating my observation. Coupled with its relatively attractive valuation (\"B-\" valuation grade), the recent bear market has significantly improved BABA's appeal.</p> <p>Notwithstanding my optimism, investors are urged to consider potentially more intense geopolitical headwinds between the US and China as Trump returns in January 2025. These uncertainties could weigh on near-term sentiments, although I believe the market has already priced them in.</p> <p>In addition, investors should consider unanticipated headwinds to Alibaba's ex-China growth opportunities if Trump initiates a debilitating trade war. Although the company's core e-commerce growth engine should remain relatively insulated, Alibaba's growth profile could be dampened further, potentially spurring a valuation de-rating. Hence, investors must remain cautious and consider adding progressively to the stock to mitigate unanticipated downside volatility.</p> <h2>Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/21/51630113-17321769685592759.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>BABA price chart (weekly, medium-term, adjusted for dividends) (TradingView)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>BABA's momentum has been battered recently but has not reversed decisively into a structural decline. Although the bear market has likely spooked late buyers who bought close to its October 2024 peak, its price action remains bullish.</p> <p>As seen above, a series of higher-low price structures remain in play, helping to underpin BABA's uptrend continuation thesis. Therefore, the \"vertical\" surge observed in its late September 2024 surge has likely been resolved, affording a potentially more attractive entry point for investors who didn't chase.</p> <p>However, I've not determined a bullish reversal price action yet, suggesting near-term volatility shouldn't be ruled out. Despite that, BABA's constructive upward momentum is consistent with improved sentiments, as indicated earlier. Furthermore, Alibaba's domestically focused e-commerce earnings profile should help mitigate the uncertainties linked to worsened geopolitical challenges between the US and China.</p> <p><em>Rating: Maintain Buy.</em></p> <p><em>Important note: Investors are reminded to do their due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. Consider this article as supplementing your required research. Please always apply independent thinking. Note that the rating is not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified.</em></p> <p><strong>I Want To Hear From You</strong></p> <p>Have constructive commentary to improve our thesis? Spotted a critical gap in our view? Saw something important that we didn't? Agree or disagree? Comment below with the aim of helping everyone in the community to learn better!</p> <div></div> <p>Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Steep Sell-Off Doesn't Make Much Sense</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Steep Sell-Off Doesn't Make Much Sense\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-22 00:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739283-alibaba-the-steep-sell-off-doesnt-make-much-sense><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alibaba stock has cratered recently, and buyers fled after the stock hit its peak in October 2024.The early momentum from China's stimulus measures has dissipated. However, has the market taken the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739283-alibaba-the-steep-sell-off-doesnt-make-much-sense\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU1051768304.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A6","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2226246903.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT4\" (HKD) ACC","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4565":"NFT概念","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0918141705.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1105468828.SGD":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1152091754.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" (HKD) INC","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1282648689.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU1152091168.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" INC","LU0797268264.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1008478684.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (HKD) ACC","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4220":"综合零售","BK4538":"云计算","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BFMHRM44.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL EQUITY MEGATRENDS \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739283-alibaba-the-steep-sell-off-doesnt-make-much-sense","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2485414388","content_text":"Alibaba stock has cratered recently, and buyers fled after the stock hit its peak in October 2024.The early momentum from China's stimulus measures has dissipated. However, has the market taken the sell-off too far?Alibaba's monetization has improved, and its cloud segment has remained profitable.Its international e-commerce business has also performed admirably, demonstrating its ability to rejuvenate growth.I argue why investors who didn't chase the previous surge can consider taking advantage of BABA's recent pessimism.maybefalse  Alibaba Stock: Suffering Another Hammering Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) investors have endured a hammering recently, as the stock's upward momentum peaked in early October 2024. As a result, the early euphoria in BABA has given way to rationalization over its growth profile, notwithstanding its relatively attractive valuation. In my previous Alibaba article, I underscored my confidence about why China's massive stimulus package has spurred investors to return to boost BABA. However, the failed breakout above its $120 resistance zone has led to intense profit-taking over the past seven weeks, as earlier investors likely rotated out. As a result, the stock has dropped firmly into a bear market, declining more than 25% through this week's lows. In Alibaba's fiscal second-quarter earnings release, the improved monetization in its Taobao and Tmall Group helped to stabilize its core e-commerce growth drivers. As a reminder, the e-commerce leader instituted a 0.6% software service fee, benefiting its customer management revenue. Accordingly, CMR accounted for more than 75% of its China commerce retail revenue, up 2% YoY. Hence, it mitigated the weakness in its retail segment's direct sales component, although overall revenue retail growth was flat. Therefore, I assess that the significant downside observed over the past couple of months in BABA is likely attributed to lowered optimism on Alibaba's e-commerce growth drivers. Although management expressed confidence in stabilizing its take rates following the implementation of the service fee, further increases seem uncertain, given the intense competitive environment in China's e-commerce market. In addition, it remains to be seen whether the improved purchase momentum from China's 11.11 festival could continue through CY2025, as China's economic and consumer spending recovery has remained uneven. Alibaba: Needs To Diversify Its Earnings Growth Drivers Better Alibaba segment performance (Alibaba filings) As seen above, concentration risks in Alibaba's TTG business are expected to hold back the market's confidence in its recovery prospects. Accordingly, Alibaba's TTG segment delivered an adjusted EBITA of RMB44.6B in FQ2, over and above its consolidated adjusted EBITA of RMB40.6B (after inter-segment adjustments). Therefore, Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence Group is far from gaining sufficient momentum to help diversify Alibaba's earnings risk profile. Although its international business (AIDC) posted a 29% surge in revenue growth, it remains a loss-making business. Therefore, I assess that while Alibaba's growth initiatives in its ex-China business have delivered solid momentum, investors are expected to remain cautious about the recovery in its domestic e-commerce business prospects. Despite that, there are sufficient reasons to remain optimistic about Alibaba's overall opportunities. The company has invested significantly to bolster its AI-driven strategy, which is expected to enhance its user engagement and optimize purchase frequencies. Hence, it should help stabilize its GMV growth momentum moving ahead. In addition, Alibaba management has telegraphed its confidence in lifting its monetization opportunities while working to scale its international e-commerce business. However, the need for BABA to manage potentially higher execution risks as it continues investing in loss-making businesses outside of its TTG platform could affect near-term investor sentiments. Given the market's tempered optimism on Alibaba's \"D\" growth grade, it's imperative for the company to demonstrate more resolve in lifting its operating efficiencies to drive profitability accretion. Alibaba: Lowered Estimates Could Intensify Near-Term Volatility Alibaba estimates (TIKR) Wall Street's revenue estimates on Alibaba have been downgraded, as analysts parsed the momentum from China's stimulus on its domestic economy. Furthermore, the increased tariffs threat from Trump's return has likely weakened investor sentiments. Despite that, I assess that Alibaba's earnings drivers remain well-anchored in its domestic e-commerce segment. Therefore, I assess that the market could have overstated Alibaba's geopolitical risks. In addition, hedge funds have also returned more favorably to holding Chinese equities in their holdings. The relative valuations between the US market and Chinese equities could also drive a market reallocation into leading companies like BABA. Moreover, management indicated that the company still has $22B remaining in its share repurchase authorization, communicating a substantial war chest for significant dip-buying opportunities. BABA Stock: Solid Momentum Suggests Investors Aren't Unduly Worried BABA Quant Grades (Seeking Alpha) Consequently, I assess that the market remains relatively optimistic about BABA stock. As seen above, the stock boasts a \"B-\" momentum grade, corroborating my observation. Coupled with its relatively attractive valuation (\"B-\" valuation grade), the recent bear market has significantly improved BABA's appeal. Notwithstanding my optimism, investors are urged to consider potentially more intense geopolitical headwinds between the US and China as Trump returns in January 2025. These uncertainties could weigh on near-term sentiments, although I believe the market has already priced them in. In addition, investors should consider unanticipated headwinds to Alibaba's ex-China growth opportunities if Trump initiates a debilitating trade war. Although the company's core e-commerce growth engine should remain relatively insulated, Alibaba's growth profile could be dampened further, potentially spurring a valuation de-rating. Hence, investors must remain cautious and consider adding progressively to the stock to mitigate unanticipated downside volatility. Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold? BABA price chart (weekly, medium-term, adjusted for dividends) (TradingView) BABA's momentum has been battered recently but has not reversed decisively into a structural decline. Although the bear market has likely spooked late buyers who bought close to its October 2024 peak, its price action remains bullish. As seen above, a series of higher-low price structures remain in play, helping to underpin BABA's uptrend continuation thesis. Therefore, the \"vertical\" surge observed in its late September 2024 surge has likely been resolved, affording a potentially more attractive entry point for investors who didn't chase. However, I've not determined a bullish reversal price action yet, suggesting near-term volatility shouldn't be ruled out. Despite that, BABA's constructive upward momentum is consistent with improved sentiments, as indicated earlier. Furthermore, Alibaba's domestically focused e-commerce earnings profile should help mitigate the uncertainties linked to worsened geopolitical challenges between the US and China. Rating: Maintain Buy. Important note: Investors are reminded to do their due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. Consider this article as supplementing your required research. Please always apply independent thinking. Note that the rating is not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified. I Want To Hear From You Have constructive commentary to improve our thesis? Spotted a critical gap in our view? Saw something important that we didn't? Agree or disagree? Comment below with the aim of helping everyone in the community to learn better!  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373587089744016,"gmtCreate":1732247650516,"gmtModify":1732248492525,"author":{"id":"3563927523174345","authorId":"3563927523174345","name":"balim","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563927523174345","authorIdStr":"3563927523174345"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Most useless stock to invest. Just ignore! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.&nbsp;","listText":"Most useless stock to invest. Just ignore! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.&nbsp;","text":"Most useless stock to invest. Just ignore! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373587089744016","repostId":"1177485186","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177485186","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1032215980","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1732182905,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177485186?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-21 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Integrates E-Commerce Platforms into a Single Business Unit","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177485186","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI, Nov 21  - Alibaba Group will integrate all of its e-commerce platforms into a single business unit to be called the Alibaba E-commerce Business Group, it said in a stock exchange filing on Thursday.It marks the first time the group's domestic Chinese e-commerce group and its international e-commerce platforms will be integrated.Alibaba shares turned positive in premarket trading.The new group brings together the Taobao and Tmall Group and the Alibaba International Digital Commerce  Gro","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>SHANGHAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Alibaba Group will integrate all of its e-commerce platforms into a single business unit to be called the Alibaba E-commerce Business Group, it said in a stock exchange filing on Thursday.</p><p>It marks the first time the group&#39;s domestic Chinese e-commerce group and its international e-commerce platforms will be integrated.</p><p>Alibaba shares turned positive in premarket trading.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5477bc0266154e2ee3c0b865333db34\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"627\"/></p><p>The new group brings together the Taobao and Tmall Group and the Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC) Group - which operated platforms including cross-border player AliExpress and wholesale B2B site Alibaba.com, in addition to second-hand platform Xianyu.</p><p>AIDC chief Jiang Fan, a former head of Tmall who was demoted in 2020 following an online scandal, has been tapped to lead the new unit. He will report to Alibaba Group CEO Eddie Wu.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Integrates E-Commerce Platforms into a Single Business Unit</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Integrates E-Commerce Platforms into a Single Business Unit\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-21 17:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>SHANGHAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Alibaba Group will integrate all of its e-commerce platforms into a single business unit to be called the Alibaba E-commerce Business Group, it said in a stock exchange filing on Thursday.</p><p>It marks the first time the group&#39;s domestic Chinese e-commerce group and its international e-commerce platforms will be integrated.</p><p>Alibaba shares turned positive in premarket trading.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5477bc0266154e2ee3c0b865333db34\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"627\"/></p><p>The new group brings together the Taobao and Tmall Group and the Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC) Group - which operated platforms including cross-border player AliExpress and wholesale B2B site Alibaba.com, in addition to second-hand platform Xianyu.</p><p>AIDC chief Jiang Fan, a former head of Tmall who was demoted in 2020 following an online scandal, has been tapped to lead the new unit. He will report to Alibaba Group CEO Eddie Wu.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177485186","content_text":"SHANGHAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Alibaba Group will integrate all of its e-commerce platforms into a single business unit to be called the Alibaba E-commerce Business Group, it said in a stock exchange filing on Thursday.It marks the first time the group's domestic Chinese e-commerce group and its international e-commerce platforms will be integrated.Alibaba shares turned positive in premarket trading.The new group brings together the Taobao and Tmall Group and the Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC) Group - which operated platforms including cross-border player AliExpress and wholesale B2B site Alibaba.com, in addition to second-hand platform Xianyu.AIDC chief Jiang Fan, a former head of Tmall who was demoted in 2020 following an online scandal, has been tapped to lead the new unit. He will report to Alibaba Group CEO Eddie Wu.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372853221626088,"gmtCreate":1732071288354,"gmtModify":1732071432642,"author":{"id":"3563927523174345","authorId":"3563927523174345","name":"balim","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563927523174345","authorIdStr":"3563927523174345"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The most useless stock!","listText":"The most useless stock!","text":"The most useless stock!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372853221626088","repostId":"2484753619","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2484753619","pubTimestamp":1732038028,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2484753619?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-20 01:40","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The 'Value Play' That Keeps On Disappointing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2484753619","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba's 2QFY25 revenue miss highlights ongoing challenges amid China's value-seeking consumption and rising competition from low-cost rivals and live-streaming platforms.BABA's focus on user growth ","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Alibaba's 2QFY25 revenue miss highlights ongoing challenges amid China's value-seeking consumption and rising competition from low-cost rivals and live-streaming platforms.</li><li>BABA's focus on user growth and retention underscores churn pressure, with users migrating to value platforms like PDD, exacerbating share price and investment sentiment.</li><li>Despite trading at 10x forward earnings, BABA is a value trap due to macro, structural, and competitive challenges, making it less attractive than PDD.</li><li>BABA's global growth lags behind peers like Temu, with slower revenue and earnings growth, justifying a preference for PDD with higher growth potential.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"4413px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"5316px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>xefstock</p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <p>Alibaba’s (<span>NYSE:BABA</span>) 2QFY25 revenue miss reinforces the fact that the company’s turnaround remains challenging amid China’s value-seeking consumption environment and increasing competition from low-cost competitors and live-streaming platforms.</p> <p>Management’s ongoing focus on user growth and retention illustrates that<span> BABA continues to face churn pressure as users migrate to money-for-value platforms such as PDD (</span>PDD<span>) and this trend seems unlikely to abate in the near term. (See: </span>PDD Holdings: Brand Migration Driving Long-Term GMV Growth)</p> <p>The lack of consumption-driven stimulus from the policymakers exacerbates BABA’s share price outlook and investment sentiment toward the stock. We note that the share price has increased by ~30% since the September 24<sup>th</sup> stimulus announcement but has given up most of the gains since early October.</p> <p>With the stock trading at 10x forward earnings, BABA is a value trap rather than a value play and better be avoided as its core Taobao and Tmall Group continue to face a number of macro, structural, and competitive challenges that will unlikely to be addressed in the foreseeable future.</p> <p>Our thesis on China’s internet sector is that population growth is no longer the key driver for industry growth and that Chinese internet companies need to shift their volume/user-based model to a value-based model through innovation so they can compete with other internet companies on a global scale. So far, Bytedance has done exceptionally well given its global coverage, followed by PDD (see: PDD: Shop Until You Drop). Ctrip (TCOM) has done well with its expansion into Southeast Asia, while Meituan is starting to expand its overseas presence in emerging markets (see: Meituan: Riding On Keeta To Drive Overseas Growth).</p> <p>Although BABA had the early mover advantage with its AliExpress, Lazada, and Trendyol assets, the company never capitalized on the global e-commerce growth opportunity. We note that AliExpress, one of the earlier cross-border shipping platforms that was accessible to US and European users, lost its competitive edge to PDD and Shein, while the recent resurgence in Sea’s (SE) Shopee and TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia is making BABA to rethink its Lazada strategy.</p> <p>Given the multiple challenges faced by BABA, we expect the share price to pull back to the level before the surge in late September and trade between 8x – 10x P/E until there are visible signs of revenue reacceleration in Taobao and Tmall Group. Without it, BABA’s share will likely be a value-trap, as this was the case for most of the calendar year 2024 and investors are better off avoiding this stock and sticking with PDD that is capitalizing on China’s soft macro backdrop with the global growth optionality in Temu.</p> <h2><strong>The core business continues to face macro and competitive headwinds</strong></h2> <p>BABA’s Taobao and Tmall revenue of RMB 98.99bn was largely in line with consensus, but worth flagging that the stabilization in the take-rate was partially helped by the introduction of 0.6% software service fee onto the Taobao merchants during the quarter. Without this extra fee, the CMR take rate would have been weaker, since BABA historically does not charge a commission from the Taobao merchants.</p> <p>Although the 0.6% software service fee is widely seen across the industry, the current e-commerce competition has resulted in platforms lowering various fees for merchants as part of their merchant retention strategy. We note that PDD has been lowering software service fees for merchants along with other fees covering logistics, marketing, use-now-pay-later, etc. When BABA’s key competitor is waiving these fees to retain merchants, we question whether BABA’s take rate has hit a trough and that we believe a prolonged soft consumption environment could add further downside risk to BABA’s take rate and revenue trajectory.</p> <p>Additionally, another concerning issue lies in the Adjusted EBITA of RMB 44.59bn, which fell short of the consensus RMB 45.14bn as BABA continues to invest in user experience and retention through aggressive marketing and promotions. Management guided that EBITA is likely to fluctuate in the coming quarters as Taobao and Tmall remain in the investment phase. In short, BABA is fighting an uphill battle, making large investments without clear visibility on when the investments will pay off. Hence, we are skeptical at a near-term turnaround in the business profile and prefer to avoid this stock until greater stability on its core commerce units.</p> <h3><strong>Falling behind peers in global growth</strong></h3> <p>AIDC revenue growth of 29% y/y was largely driven by cross-border e-commerce, AE Choice. Although AE Choice covers over 200 countries globally, its GMV is still relatively small compared with Temu which is generating roughly $350mn - $400mn weekly GMV run-rate, per YipitData.</p> <p>User experience, rather than geographic coverage, is a key determinant of e-commerce success rate. Temu has been actively shortening the cross-border shipping time to the US, as well as working with the semi-managed model to onboard new merchants and expand its SKU selection to compete against larger incumbents such as Amazon (AMZN).</p> <p>Anecdotal evidence indicates that AE Choice’s shipping time continues to underwhelm, while Temu has been able to narrow down the delivery window to around two weeks.</p> <p>The longer BABA takes to bring a comparable user experience in terms of product selection and delivery time, the wider the gap BABA has with its biggest competitor and the farther back it will trail in terms of customer experience.</p> <h4><strong>Valuation likely to remain depressed in the near term</strong></h4> <p>In the context of valuation, BABA’s 9x 2025E consensus earnings may appear to be a value play given that the current forward multiple is trading at a 10-year low and well below its historical average.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/17/967275-17318714899842544.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Capital IQ, Astrada Advisors</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>However, we feel that it is more of a value trap given its soft near-term growth trajectory. We note that the current consensus is looking at 7.5% revenue growth and 6.5% earnings growth for 2025E, which is significantly below that of PDD which is growing at 6x faster revenue and earnings growth while trading at 1 turn below that of BABA on a forward P/E basis.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/17/967275-17318714899907985.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Capital IQ, Astrada Advisors</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <p>With a slower growth profile, we simply do not believe that BABA’s current valuation is justified, even when it is trading at a historically low single-digit forward P/E. As such, we believe investors are better off with PDD, given its higher global growth potential and its position as a market share gainer in China’s e-commerce space.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The 'Value Play' That Keeps On Disappointing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The 'Value Play' That Keeps On Disappointing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-20 01:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738720-alibaba-the-value-play-that-keeps-on-disappointing><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alibaba's 2QFY25 revenue miss highlights ongoing challenges amid China's value-seeking consumption and rising competition from low-cost rivals and live-streaming platforms.BABA's focus on user growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738720-alibaba-the-value-play-that-keeps-on-disappointing\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738720-alibaba-the-value-play-that-keeps-on-disappointing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2484753619","content_text":"Alibaba's 2QFY25 revenue miss highlights ongoing challenges amid China's value-seeking consumption and rising competition from low-cost rivals and live-streaming platforms.BABA's focus on user growth and retention underscores churn pressure, with users migrating to value platforms like PDD, exacerbating share price and investment sentiment.Despite trading at 10x forward earnings, BABA is a value trap due to macro, structural, and competitive challenges, making it less attractive than PDD.BABA's global growth lags behind peers like Temu, with slower revenue and earnings growth, justifying a preference for PDD with higher growth potential.   xefstock  Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) 2QFY25 revenue miss reinforces the fact that the company’s turnaround remains challenging amid China’s value-seeking consumption environment and increasing competition from low-cost competitors and live-streaming platforms. Management’s ongoing focus on user growth and retention illustrates that BABA continues to face churn pressure as users migrate to money-for-value platforms such as PDD (PDD) and this trend seems unlikely to abate in the near term. (See: PDD Holdings: Brand Migration Driving Long-Term GMV Growth) The lack of consumption-driven stimulus from the policymakers exacerbates BABA’s share price outlook and investment sentiment toward the stock. We note that the share price has increased by ~30% since the September 24th stimulus announcement but has given up most of the gains since early October. With the stock trading at 10x forward earnings, BABA is a value trap rather than a value play and better be avoided as its core Taobao and Tmall Group continue to face a number of macro, structural, and competitive challenges that will unlikely to be addressed in the foreseeable future. Our thesis on China’s internet sector is that population growth is no longer the key driver for industry growth and that Chinese internet companies need to shift their volume/user-based model to a value-based model through innovation so they can compete with other internet companies on a global scale. So far, Bytedance has done exceptionally well given its global coverage, followed by PDD (see: PDD: Shop Until You Drop). Ctrip (TCOM) has done well with its expansion into Southeast Asia, while Meituan is starting to expand its overseas presence in emerging markets (see: Meituan: Riding On Keeta To Drive Overseas Growth). Although BABA had the early mover advantage with its AliExpress, Lazada, and Trendyol assets, the company never capitalized on the global e-commerce growth opportunity. We note that AliExpress, one of the earlier cross-border shipping platforms that was accessible to US and European users, lost its competitive edge to PDD and Shein, while the recent resurgence in Sea’s (SE) Shopee and TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia is making BABA to rethink its Lazada strategy. Given the multiple challenges faced by BABA, we expect the share price to pull back to the level before the surge in late September and trade between 8x – 10x P/E until there are visible signs of revenue reacceleration in Taobao and Tmall Group. Without it, BABA’s share will likely be a value-trap, as this was the case for most of the calendar year 2024 and investors are better off avoiding this stock and sticking with PDD that is capitalizing on China’s soft macro backdrop with the global growth optionality in Temu. The core business continues to face macro and competitive headwinds BABA’s Taobao and Tmall revenue of RMB 98.99bn was largely in line with consensus, but worth flagging that the stabilization in the take-rate was partially helped by the introduction of 0.6% software service fee onto the Taobao merchants during the quarter. Without this extra fee, the CMR take rate would have been weaker, since BABA historically does not charge a commission from the Taobao merchants. Although the 0.6% software service fee is widely seen across the industry, the current e-commerce competition has resulted in platforms lowering various fees for merchants as part of their merchant retention strategy. We note that PDD has been lowering software service fees for merchants along with other fees covering logistics, marketing, use-now-pay-later, etc. When BABA’s key competitor is waiving these fees to retain merchants, we question whether BABA’s take rate has hit a trough and that we believe a prolonged soft consumption environment could add further downside risk to BABA’s take rate and revenue trajectory. Additionally, another concerning issue lies in the Adjusted EBITA of RMB 44.59bn, which fell short of the consensus RMB 45.14bn as BABA continues to invest in user experience and retention through aggressive marketing and promotions. Management guided that EBITA is likely to fluctuate in the coming quarters as Taobao and Tmall remain in the investment phase. In short, BABA is fighting an uphill battle, making large investments without clear visibility on when the investments will pay off. Hence, we are skeptical at a near-term turnaround in the business profile and prefer to avoid this stock until greater stability on its core commerce units. Falling behind peers in global growth AIDC revenue growth of 29% y/y was largely driven by cross-border e-commerce, AE Choice. Although AE Choice covers over 200 countries globally, its GMV is still relatively small compared with Temu which is generating roughly $350mn - $400mn weekly GMV run-rate, per YipitData. User experience, rather than geographic coverage, is a key determinant of e-commerce success rate. Temu has been actively shortening the cross-border shipping time to the US, as well as working with the semi-managed model to onboard new merchants and expand its SKU selection to compete against larger incumbents such as Amazon (AMZN). Anecdotal evidence indicates that AE Choice’s shipping time continues to underwhelm, while Temu has been able to narrow down the delivery window to around two weeks. The longer BABA takes to bring a comparable user experience in terms of product selection and delivery time, the wider the gap BABA has with its biggest competitor and the farther back it will trail in terms of customer experience. Valuation likely to remain depressed in the near term In the context of valuation, BABA’s 9x 2025E consensus earnings may appear to be a value play given that the current forward multiple is trading at a 10-year low and well below its historical average.   Capital IQ, Astrada Advisors However, we feel that it is more of a value trap given its soft near-term growth trajectory. We note that the current consensus is looking at 7.5% revenue growth and 6.5% earnings growth for 2025E, which is significantly below that of PDD which is growing at 6x faster revenue and earnings growth while trading at 1 turn below that of BABA on a forward P/E basis.   Capital IQ, Astrada Advisors  With a slower growth profile, we simply do not believe that BABA’s current valuation is justified, even when it is trading at a historically low single-digit forward P/E. As such, we believe investors are better off with PDD, given its higher global growth potential and its position as a market share gainer in China’s e-commerce space.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":373587502981376,"gmtCreate":1732247754143,"gmtModify":1732248492405,"author":{"id":"3563927523174345","authorId":"3563927523174345","name":"balim","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563927523174345","authorIdStr":"3563927523174345"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Most useless stock to invest in. Why bother to monitor this stock! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.&nbsp;","listText":"Most useless stock to invest in. Why bother to monitor this stock! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.&nbsp;","text":"Most useless stock to invest in. Why bother to monitor this stock! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373587502981376","repostId":"2485414388","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2485414388","pubTimestamp":1732206600,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2485414388?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-22 00:30","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Steep Sell-Off Doesn't Make Much Sense","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485414388","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba stock has cratered recently, and buyers fled after the stock hit its peak in October 2024.The early momentum from China's stimulus measures has dissipated. However, has the market taken the sell-off too far?","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Alibaba stock has cratered recently, and buyers fled after the stock hit its peak in October 2024.</li><li>The early momentum from China's stimulus measures has dissipated. However, has the market taken the sell-off too far?</li><li>Alibaba's monetization has improved, and its cloud segment has remained profitable.</li><li>Its international e-commerce business has also performed admirably, demonstrating its ability to rejuvenate growth.</li><li>I argue why investors who didn't chase the previous surge can consider taking advantage of BABA's recent pessimism.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"5304px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"7952px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>maybefalse</p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <h2>Alibaba Stock: Suffering Another Hammering</h2> <p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited (<span>NYSE:BABA</span>) investors have endured a hammering recently, as the stock's upward momentum peaked in early October 2024. As a result, the early euphoria in BABA has given way to rationalization over its<span> growth profile, notwithstanding its relatively attractive valuation. </span>In my previous Alibaba article<span>, I underscored my confidence about why China's massive stimulus package has spurred investors to return to boost BABA. However, the failed breakout above its $120 resistance zone has led to intense profit-taking over the past seven weeks, as earlier investors likely rotated out. As a result, the stock has dropped firmly into a bear market, declining more than 25% through this week's lows.</span></p> <p>In Alibaba's fiscal second-quarter earnings release, the improved monetization in its Taobao and Tmall Group helped to stabilize its core e-commerce growth drivers. As a reminder, the e-commerce leader instituted a 0.6% software service fee, benefiting its customer management revenue. Accordingly, CMR accounted for more than 75% of its China commerce retail revenue, up 2% YoY. Hence, it mitigated the weakness in its retail segment's direct sales component, although overall revenue retail growth was flat.</p> <p>Therefore, I assess that the significant downside observed over the past couple of months in BABA is likely attributed to lowered optimism on Alibaba's e-commerce growth drivers. Although management expressed confidence in stabilizing its take rates following the implementation of the service fee, further increases seem uncertain, given the intense competitive environment in China's e-commerce market. In addition, it remains to be seen whether the improved purchase momentum from China's 11.11 festival could continue through CY2025, as China's economic and consumer spending recovery has remained uneven.</p> <h2>Alibaba: Needs To Diversify Its Earnings Growth Drivers Better</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/21/51630113-17321747164299164.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Alibaba segment performance (Alibaba filings)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>As seen above, concentration risks in Alibaba's TTG business are expected to hold back the market's confidence in its recovery prospects. Accordingly, Alibaba's TTG segment delivered an adjusted EBITA of RMB44.6B in FQ2, over and above its consolidated adjusted EBITA of RMB40.6B (after inter-segment adjustments). Therefore, Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence Group is far from gaining sufficient momentum to help diversify Alibaba's earnings risk profile. Although its international business (AIDC) posted a 29% surge in revenue growth, it remains a loss-making business.</p> <p>Therefore, I assess that while Alibaba's growth initiatives in its ex-China business have delivered solid momentum, investors are expected to remain cautious about the recovery in its domestic e-commerce business prospects. Despite that, there are sufficient reasons to remain optimistic about Alibaba's overall opportunities. The company has invested significantly to bolster its AI-driven strategy, which is expected to enhance its user engagement and optimize purchase frequencies.</p> <p>Hence, it should help stabilize its GMV growth momentum moving ahead. In addition, Alibaba management has telegraphed its confidence in lifting its monetization opportunities while working to scale its international e-commerce business. However, the need for BABA to manage potentially higher execution risks as it continues investing in loss-making businesses outside of its TTG platform could affect near-term investor sentiments. Given the market's tempered optimism on Alibaba's \"D\" growth grade, it's imperative for the company to demonstrate more resolve in lifting its operating efficiencies to drive profitability accretion.</p> <h2>Alibaba: Lowered Estimates Could Intensify Near-Term Volatility</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/21/51630113-17321762005276847.jpg\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>Alibaba estimates (TIKR)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Wall Street's revenue estimates on Alibaba have been downgraded, as analysts parsed the momentum from China's stimulus on its domestic economy. Furthermore, the increased tariffs threat from Trump's return has likely weakened investor sentiments. Despite that, I assess that Alibaba's earnings drivers remain well-anchored in its domestic e-commerce segment. Therefore, I assess that the market could have overstated Alibaba's geopolitical risks.</p> <p>In addition, hedge funds have also returned more favorably to holding Chinese equities in their holdings. The relative valuations between the US market and Chinese equities could also drive a market reallocation into leading companies like BABA. Moreover, management indicated that the company still has $22B remaining in its share repurchase authorization, communicating a substantial war chest for significant dip-buying opportunities.</p> <h2>BABA Stock: Solid Momentum Suggests Investors Aren't Unduly Worried</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/21/51630113-17321766174882634.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>BABA Quant Grades (Seeking Alpha)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Consequently, I assess that the market remains relatively optimistic about BABA stock. As seen above, the stock boasts a \"B-\" momentum grade, corroborating my observation. Coupled with its relatively attractive valuation (\"B-\" valuation grade), the recent bear market has significantly improved BABA's appeal.</p> <p>Notwithstanding my optimism, investors are urged to consider potentially more intense geopolitical headwinds between the US and China as Trump returns in January 2025. These uncertainties could weigh on near-term sentiments, although I believe the market has already priced them in.</p> <p>In addition, investors should consider unanticipated headwinds to Alibaba's ex-China growth opportunities if Trump initiates a debilitating trade war. Although the company's core e-commerce growth engine should remain relatively insulated, Alibaba's growth profile could be dampened further, potentially spurring a valuation de-rating. Hence, investors must remain cautious and consider adding progressively to the stock to mitigate unanticipated downside volatility.</p> <h2>Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/21/51630113-17321769685592759.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>BABA price chart (weekly, medium-term, adjusted for dividends) (TradingView)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>BABA's momentum has been battered recently but has not reversed decisively into a structural decline. Although the bear market has likely spooked late buyers who bought close to its October 2024 peak, its price action remains bullish.</p> <p>As seen above, a series of higher-low price structures remain in play, helping to underpin BABA's uptrend continuation thesis. Therefore, the \"vertical\" surge observed in its late September 2024 surge has likely been resolved, affording a potentially more attractive entry point for investors who didn't chase.</p> <p>However, I've not determined a bullish reversal price action yet, suggesting near-term volatility shouldn't be ruled out. Despite that, BABA's constructive upward momentum is consistent with improved sentiments, as indicated earlier. Furthermore, Alibaba's domestically focused e-commerce earnings profile should help mitigate the uncertainties linked to worsened geopolitical challenges between the US and China.</p> <p><em>Rating: Maintain Buy.</em></p> <p><em>Important note: Investors are reminded to do their due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. Consider this article as supplementing your required research. Please always apply independent thinking. Note that the rating is not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified.</em></p> <p><strong>I Want To Hear From You</strong></p> <p>Have constructive commentary to improve our thesis? Spotted a critical gap in our view? Saw something important that we didn't? Agree or disagree? Comment below with the aim of helping everyone in the community to learn better!</p> <div></div> <p>Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Steep Sell-Off Doesn't Make Much Sense</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Steep Sell-Off Doesn't Make Much Sense\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-22 00:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739283-alibaba-the-steep-sell-off-doesnt-make-much-sense><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alibaba stock has cratered recently, and buyers fled after the stock hit its peak in October 2024.The early momentum from China's stimulus measures has dissipated. However, has the market taken the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739283-alibaba-the-steep-sell-off-doesnt-make-much-sense\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1020075066/image_1020075066.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU1051768304.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A6","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2226246903.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT4\" (HKD) ACC","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4565":"NFT概念","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0918141705.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1105468828.SGD":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1152091754.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" (HKD) INC","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1282648689.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU1152091168.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" INC","LU0797268264.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1008478684.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (HKD) ACC","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4220":"综合零售","BK4538":"云计算","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BFMHRM44.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL EQUITY MEGATRENDS \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739283-alibaba-the-steep-sell-off-doesnt-make-much-sense","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2485414388","content_text":"Alibaba stock has cratered recently, and buyers fled after the stock hit its peak in October 2024.The early momentum from China's stimulus measures has dissipated. However, has the market taken the sell-off too far?Alibaba's monetization has improved, and its cloud segment has remained profitable.Its international e-commerce business has also performed admirably, demonstrating its ability to rejuvenate growth.I argue why investors who didn't chase the previous surge can consider taking advantage of BABA's recent pessimism.maybefalse  Alibaba Stock: Suffering Another Hammering Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) investors have endured a hammering recently, as the stock's upward momentum peaked in early October 2024. As a result, the early euphoria in BABA has given way to rationalization over its growth profile, notwithstanding its relatively attractive valuation. In my previous Alibaba article, I underscored my confidence about why China's massive stimulus package has spurred investors to return to boost BABA. However, the failed breakout above its $120 resistance zone has led to intense profit-taking over the past seven weeks, as earlier investors likely rotated out. As a result, the stock has dropped firmly into a bear market, declining more than 25% through this week's lows. In Alibaba's fiscal second-quarter earnings release, the improved monetization in its Taobao and Tmall Group helped to stabilize its core e-commerce growth drivers. As a reminder, the e-commerce leader instituted a 0.6% software service fee, benefiting its customer management revenue. Accordingly, CMR accounted for more than 75% of its China commerce retail revenue, up 2% YoY. Hence, it mitigated the weakness in its retail segment's direct sales component, although overall revenue retail growth was flat. Therefore, I assess that the significant downside observed over the past couple of months in BABA is likely attributed to lowered optimism on Alibaba's e-commerce growth drivers. Although management expressed confidence in stabilizing its take rates following the implementation of the service fee, further increases seem uncertain, given the intense competitive environment in China's e-commerce market. In addition, it remains to be seen whether the improved purchase momentum from China's 11.11 festival could continue through CY2025, as China's economic and consumer spending recovery has remained uneven. Alibaba: Needs To Diversify Its Earnings Growth Drivers Better Alibaba segment performance (Alibaba filings) As seen above, concentration risks in Alibaba's TTG business are expected to hold back the market's confidence in its recovery prospects. Accordingly, Alibaba's TTG segment delivered an adjusted EBITA of RMB44.6B in FQ2, over and above its consolidated adjusted EBITA of RMB40.6B (after inter-segment adjustments). Therefore, Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence Group is far from gaining sufficient momentum to help diversify Alibaba's earnings risk profile. Although its international business (AIDC) posted a 29% surge in revenue growth, it remains a loss-making business. Therefore, I assess that while Alibaba's growth initiatives in its ex-China business have delivered solid momentum, investors are expected to remain cautious about the recovery in its domestic e-commerce business prospects. Despite that, there are sufficient reasons to remain optimistic about Alibaba's overall opportunities. The company has invested significantly to bolster its AI-driven strategy, which is expected to enhance its user engagement and optimize purchase frequencies. Hence, it should help stabilize its GMV growth momentum moving ahead. In addition, Alibaba management has telegraphed its confidence in lifting its monetization opportunities while working to scale its international e-commerce business. However, the need for BABA to manage potentially higher execution risks as it continues investing in loss-making businesses outside of its TTG platform could affect near-term investor sentiments. Given the market's tempered optimism on Alibaba's \"D\" growth grade, it's imperative for the company to demonstrate more resolve in lifting its operating efficiencies to drive profitability accretion. Alibaba: Lowered Estimates Could Intensify Near-Term Volatility Alibaba estimates (TIKR) Wall Street's revenue estimates on Alibaba have been downgraded, as analysts parsed the momentum from China's stimulus on its domestic economy. Furthermore, the increased tariffs threat from Trump's return has likely weakened investor sentiments. Despite that, I assess that Alibaba's earnings drivers remain well-anchored in its domestic e-commerce segment. Therefore, I assess that the market could have overstated Alibaba's geopolitical risks. In addition, hedge funds have also returned more favorably to holding Chinese equities in their holdings. The relative valuations between the US market and Chinese equities could also drive a market reallocation into leading companies like BABA. Moreover, management indicated that the company still has $22B remaining in its share repurchase authorization, communicating a substantial war chest for significant dip-buying opportunities. BABA Stock: Solid Momentum Suggests Investors Aren't Unduly Worried BABA Quant Grades (Seeking Alpha) Consequently, I assess that the market remains relatively optimistic about BABA stock. As seen above, the stock boasts a \"B-\" momentum grade, corroborating my observation. Coupled with its relatively attractive valuation (\"B-\" valuation grade), the recent bear market has significantly improved BABA's appeal. Notwithstanding my optimism, investors are urged to consider potentially more intense geopolitical headwinds between the US and China as Trump returns in January 2025. These uncertainties could weigh on near-term sentiments, although I believe the market has already priced them in. In addition, investors should consider unanticipated headwinds to Alibaba's ex-China growth opportunities if Trump initiates a debilitating trade war. Although the company's core e-commerce growth engine should remain relatively insulated, Alibaba's growth profile could be dampened further, potentially spurring a valuation de-rating. Hence, investors must remain cautious and consider adding progressively to the stock to mitigate unanticipated downside volatility. Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold? BABA price chart (weekly, medium-term, adjusted for dividends) (TradingView) BABA's momentum has been battered recently but has not reversed decisively into a structural decline. Although the bear market has likely spooked late buyers who bought close to its October 2024 peak, its price action remains bullish. As seen above, a series of higher-low price structures remain in play, helping to underpin BABA's uptrend continuation thesis. Therefore, the \"vertical\" surge observed in its late September 2024 surge has likely been resolved, affording a potentially more attractive entry point for investors who didn't chase. However, I've not determined a bullish reversal price action yet, suggesting near-term volatility shouldn't be ruled out. Despite that, BABA's constructive upward momentum is consistent with improved sentiments, as indicated earlier. Furthermore, Alibaba's domestically focused e-commerce earnings profile should help mitigate the uncertainties linked to worsened geopolitical challenges between the US and China. Rating: Maintain Buy. Important note: Investors are reminded to do their due diligence and not rely on the information provided as financial advice. Consider this article as supplementing your required research. Please always apply independent thinking. Note that the rating is not intended to time a specific entry/exit at the point of writing unless otherwise specified. I Want To Hear From You Have constructive commentary to improve our thesis? Spotted a critical gap in our view? Saw something important that we didn't? Agree or disagree? Comment below with the aim of helping everyone in the community to learn better!  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373587089744016,"gmtCreate":1732247650516,"gmtModify":1732248492525,"author":{"id":"3563927523174345","authorId":"3563927523174345","name":"balim","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563927523174345","authorIdStr":"3563927523174345"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Most useless stock to invest. Just ignore! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.&nbsp;","listText":"Most useless stock to invest. Just ignore! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.&nbsp;","text":"Most useless stock to invest. Just ignore! There are many many other excellent stocks to invest in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373587089744016","repostId":"1177485186","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177485186","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1032215980","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1732182905,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177485186?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-21 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Integrates E-Commerce Platforms into a Single Business Unit","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177485186","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI, Nov 21  - Alibaba Group will integrate all of its e-commerce platforms into a single business unit to be called the Alibaba E-commerce Business Group, it said in a stock exchange filing on Thursday.It marks the first time the group's domestic Chinese e-commerce group and its international e-commerce platforms will be integrated.Alibaba shares turned positive in premarket trading.The new group brings together the Taobao and Tmall Group and the Alibaba International Digital Commerce  Gro","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>SHANGHAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Alibaba Group will integrate all of its e-commerce platforms into a single business unit to be called the Alibaba E-commerce Business Group, it said in a stock exchange filing on Thursday.</p><p>It marks the first time the group&#39;s domestic Chinese e-commerce group and its international e-commerce platforms will be integrated.</p><p>Alibaba shares turned positive in premarket trading.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5477bc0266154e2ee3c0b865333db34\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"627\"/></p><p>The new group brings together the Taobao and Tmall Group and the Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC) Group - which operated platforms including cross-border player AliExpress and wholesale B2B site Alibaba.com, in addition to second-hand platform Xianyu.</p><p>AIDC chief Jiang Fan, a former head of Tmall who was demoted in 2020 following an online scandal, has been tapped to lead the new unit. He will report to Alibaba Group CEO Eddie Wu.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Integrates E-Commerce Platforms into a Single Business Unit</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Integrates E-Commerce Platforms into a Single Business Unit\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-21 17:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>SHANGHAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Alibaba Group will integrate all of its e-commerce platforms into a single business unit to be called the Alibaba E-commerce Business Group, it said in a stock exchange filing on Thursday.</p><p>It marks the first time the group&#39;s domestic Chinese e-commerce group and its international e-commerce platforms will be integrated.</p><p>Alibaba shares turned positive in premarket trading.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5477bc0266154e2ee3c0b865333db34\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"627\"/></p><p>The new group brings together the Taobao and Tmall Group and the Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC) Group - which operated platforms including cross-border player AliExpress and wholesale B2B site Alibaba.com, in addition to second-hand platform Xianyu.</p><p>AIDC chief Jiang Fan, a former head of Tmall who was demoted in 2020 following an online scandal, has been tapped to lead the new unit. He will report to Alibaba Group CEO Eddie Wu.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177485186","content_text":"SHANGHAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Alibaba Group will integrate all of its e-commerce platforms into a single business unit to be called the Alibaba E-commerce Business Group, it said in a stock exchange filing on Thursday.It marks the first time the group's domestic Chinese e-commerce group and its international e-commerce platforms will be integrated.Alibaba shares turned positive in premarket trading.The new group brings together the Taobao and Tmall Group and the Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC) Group - which operated platforms including cross-border player AliExpress and wholesale B2B site Alibaba.com, in addition to second-hand platform Xianyu.AIDC chief Jiang Fan, a former head of Tmall who was demoted in 2020 following an online scandal, has been tapped to lead the new unit. He will report to Alibaba Group CEO Eddie Wu.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372853221626088,"gmtCreate":1732071288354,"gmtModify":1732071432642,"author":{"id":"3563927523174345","authorId":"3563927523174345","name":"balim","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563927523174345","authorIdStr":"3563927523174345"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The most useless stock!","listText":"The most useless stock!","text":"The most useless stock!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372853221626088","repostId":"2484753619","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2484753619","pubTimestamp":1732038028,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2484753619?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-20 01:40","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The 'Value Play' That Keeps On Disappointing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2484753619","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba's 2QFY25 revenue miss highlights ongoing challenges amid China's value-seeking consumption and rising competition from low-cost rivals and live-streaming platforms.BABA's focus on user growth ","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Alibaba's 2QFY25 revenue miss highlights ongoing challenges amid China's value-seeking consumption and rising competition from low-cost rivals and live-streaming platforms.</li><li>BABA's focus on user growth and retention underscores churn pressure, with users migrating to value platforms like PDD, exacerbating share price and investment sentiment.</li><li>Despite trading at 10x forward earnings, BABA is a value trap due to macro, structural, and competitive challenges, making it less attractive than PDD.</li><li>BABA's global growth lags behind peers like Temu, with slower revenue and earnings growth, justifying a preference for PDD with higher growth potential.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"4413px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"5316px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>xefstock</p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <p>Alibaba’s (<span>NYSE:BABA</span>) 2QFY25 revenue miss reinforces the fact that the company’s turnaround remains challenging amid China’s value-seeking consumption environment and increasing competition from low-cost competitors and live-streaming platforms.</p> <p>Management’s ongoing focus on user growth and retention illustrates that<span> BABA continues to face churn pressure as users migrate to money-for-value platforms such as PDD (</span>PDD<span>) and this trend seems unlikely to abate in the near term. (See: </span>PDD Holdings: Brand Migration Driving Long-Term GMV Growth)</p> <p>The lack of consumption-driven stimulus from the policymakers exacerbates BABA’s share price outlook and investment sentiment toward the stock. We note that the share price has increased by ~30% since the September 24<sup>th</sup> stimulus announcement but has given up most of the gains since early October.</p> <p>With the stock trading at 10x forward earnings, BABA is a value trap rather than a value play and better be avoided as its core Taobao and Tmall Group continue to face a number of macro, structural, and competitive challenges that will unlikely to be addressed in the foreseeable future.</p> <p>Our thesis on China’s internet sector is that population growth is no longer the key driver for industry growth and that Chinese internet companies need to shift their volume/user-based model to a value-based model through innovation so they can compete with other internet companies on a global scale. So far, Bytedance has done exceptionally well given its global coverage, followed by PDD (see: PDD: Shop Until You Drop). Ctrip (TCOM) has done well with its expansion into Southeast Asia, while Meituan is starting to expand its overseas presence in emerging markets (see: Meituan: Riding On Keeta To Drive Overseas Growth).</p> <p>Although BABA had the early mover advantage with its AliExpress, Lazada, and Trendyol assets, the company never capitalized on the global e-commerce growth opportunity. We note that AliExpress, one of the earlier cross-border shipping platforms that was accessible to US and European users, lost its competitive edge to PDD and Shein, while the recent resurgence in Sea’s (SE) Shopee and TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia is making BABA to rethink its Lazada strategy.</p> <p>Given the multiple challenges faced by BABA, we expect the share price to pull back to the level before the surge in late September and trade between 8x – 10x P/E until there are visible signs of revenue reacceleration in Taobao and Tmall Group. Without it, BABA’s share will likely be a value-trap, as this was the case for most of the calendar year 2024 and investors are better off avoiding this stock and sticking with PDD that is capitalizing on China’s soft macro backdrop with the global growth optionality in Temu.</p> <h2><strong>The core business continues to face macro and competitive headwinds</strong></h2> <p>BABA’s Taobao and Tmall revenue of RMB 98.99bn was largely in line with consensus, but worth flagging that the stabilization in the take-rate was partially helped by the introduction of 0.6% software service fee onto the Taobao merchants during the quarter. Without this extra fee, the CMR take rate would have been weaker, since BABA historically does not charge a commission from the Taobao merchants.</p> <p>Although the 0.6% software service fee is widely seen across the industry, the current e-commerce competition has resulted in platforms lowering various fees for merchants as part of their merchant retention strategy. We note that PDD has been lowering software service fees for merchants along with other fees covering logistics, marketing, use-now-pay-later, etc. When BABA’s key competitor is waiving these fees to retain merchants, we question whether BABA’s take rate has hit a trough and that we believe a prolonged soft consumption environment could add further downside risk to BABA’s take rate and revenue trajectory.</p> <p>Additionally, another concerning issue lies in the Adjusted EBITA of RMB 44.59bn, which fell short of the consensus RMB 45.14bn as BABA continues to invest in user experience and retention through aggressive marketing and promotions. Management guided that EBITA is likely to fluctuate in the coming quarters as Taobao and Tmall remain in the investment phase. In short, BABA is fighting an uphill battle, making large investments without clear visibility on when the investments will pay off. Hence, we are skeptical at a near-term turnaround in the business profile and prefer to avoid this stock until greater stability on its core commerce units.</p> <h3><strong>Falling behind peers in global growth</strong></h3> <p>AIDC revenue growth of 29% y/y was largely driven by cross-border e-commerce, AE Choice. Although AE Choice covers over 200 countries globally, its GMV is still relatively small compared with Temu which is generating roughly $350mn - $400mn weekly GMV run-rate, per YipitData.</p> <p>User experience, rather than geographic coverage, is a key determinant of e-commerce success rate. Temu has been actively shortening the cross-border shipping time to the US, as well as working with the semi-managed model to onboard new merchants and expand its SKU selection to compete against larger incumbents such as Amazon (AMZN).</p> <p>Anecdotal evidence indicates that AE Choice’s shipping time continues to underwhelm, while Temu has been able to narrow down the delivery window to around two weeks.</p> <p>The longer BABA takes to bring a comparable user experience in terms of product selection and delivery time, the wider the gap BABA has with its biggest competitor and the farther back it will trail in terms of customer experience.</p> <h4><strong>Valuation likely to remain depressed in the near term</strong></h4> <p>In the context of valuation, BABA’s 9x 2025E consensus earnings may appear to be a value play given that the current forward multiple is trading at a 10-year low and well below its historical average.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/17/967275-17318714899842544.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Capital IQ, Astrada Advisors</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>However, we feel that it is more of a value trap given its soft near-term growth trajectory. We note that the current consensus is looking at 7.5% revenue growth and 6.5% earnings growth for 2025E, which is significantly below that of PDD which is growing at 6x faster revenue and earnings growth while trading at 1 turn below that of BABA on a forward P/E basis.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/17/967275-17318714899907985.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Capital IQ, Astrada Advisors</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <p>With a slower growth profile, we simply do not believe that BABA’s current valuation is justified, even when it is trading at a historically low single-digit forward P/E. As such, we believe investors are better off with PDD, given its higher global growth potential and its position as a market share gainer in China’s e-commerce space.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The 'Value Play' That Keeps On Disappointing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The 'Value Play' That Keeps On Disappointing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-20 01:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738720-alibaba-the-value-play-that-keeps-on-disappointing><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alibaba's 2QFY25 revenue miss highlights ongoing challenges amid China's value-seeking consumption and rising competition from low-cost rivals and live-streaming platforms.BABA's focus on user growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738720-alibaba-the-value-play-that-keeps-on-disappointing\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/181900539/image_181900539.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4738720-alibaba-the-value-play-that-keeps-on-disappointing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2484753619","content_text":"Alibaba's 2QFY25 revenue miss highlights ongoing challenges amid China's value-seeking consumption and rising competition from low-cost rivals and live-streaming platforms.BABA's focus on user growth and retention underscores churn pressure, with users migrating to value platforms like PDD, exacerbating share price and investment sentiment.Despite trading at 10x forward earnings, BABA is a value trap due to macro, structural, and competitive challenges, making it less attractive than PDD.BABA's global growth lags behind peers like Temu, with slower revenue and earnings growth, justifying a preference for PDD with higher growth potential.   xefstock  Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) 2QFY25 revenue miss reinforces the fact that the company’s turnaround remains challenging amid China’s value-seeking consumption environment and increasing competition from low-cost competitors and live-streaming platforms. Management’s ongoing focus on user growth and retention illustrates that BABA continues to face churn pressure as users migrate to money-for-value platforms such as PDD (PDD) and this trend seems unlikely to abate in the near term. (See: PDD Holdings: Brand Migration Driving Long-Term GMV Growth) The lack of consumption-driven stimulus from the policymakers exacerbates BABA’s share price outlook and investment sentiment toward the stock. We note that the share price has increased by ~30% since the September 24th stimulus announcement but has given up most of the gains since early October. With the stock trading at 10x forward earnings, BABA is a value trap rather than a value play and better be avoided as its core Taobao and Tmall Group continue to face a number of macro, structural, and competitive challenges that will unlikely to be addressed in the foreseeable future. Our thesis on China’s internet sector is that population growth is no longer the key driver for industry growth and that Chinese internet companies need to shift their volume/user-based model to a value-based model through innovation so they can compete with other internet companies on a global scale. So far, Bytedance has done exceptionally well given its global coverage, followed by PDD (see: PDD: Shop Until You Drop). Ctrip (TCOM) has done well with its expansion into Southeast Asia, while Meituan is starting to expand its overseas presence in emerging markets (see: Meituan: Riding On Keeta To Drive Overseas Growth). Although BABA had the early mover advantage with its AliExpress, Lazada, and Trendyol assets, the company never capitalized on the global e-commerce growth opportunity. We note that AliExpress, one of the earlier cross-border shipping platforms that was accessible to US and European users, lost its competitive edge to PDD and Shein, while the recent resurgence in Sea’s (SE) Shopee and TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia is making BABA to rethink its Lazada strategy. Given the multiple challenges faced by BABA, we expect the share price to pull back to the level before the surge in late September and trade between 8x – 10x P/E until there are visible signs of revenue reacceleration in Taobao and Tmall Group. Without it, BABA’s share will likely be a value-trap, as this was the case for most of the calendar year 2024 and investors are better off avoiding this stock and sticking with PDD that is capitalizing on China’s soft macro backdrop with the global growth optionality in Temu. The core business continues to face macro and competitive headwinds BABA’s Taobao and Tmall revenue of RMB 98.99bn was largely in line with consensus, but worth flagging that the stabilization in the take-rate was partially helped by the introduction of 0.6% software service fee onto the Taobao merchants during the quarter. Without this extra fee, the CMR take rate would have been weaker, since BABA historically does not charge a commission from the Taobao merchants. Although the 0.6% software service fee is widely seen across the industry, the current e-commerce competition has resulted in platforms lowering various fees for merchants as part of their merchant retention strategy. We note that PDD has been lowering software service fees for merchants along with other fees covering logistics, marketing, use-now-pay-later, etc. When BABA’s key competitor is waiving these fees to retain merchants, we question whether BABA’s take rate has hit a trough and that we believe a prolonged soft consumption environment could add further downside risk to BABA’s take rate and revenue trajectory. Additionally, another concerning issue lies in the Adjusted EBITA of RMB 44.59bn, which fell short of the consensus RMB 45.14bn as BABA continues to invest in user experience and retention through aggressive marketing and promotions. Management guided that EBITA is likely to fluctuate in the coming quarters as Taobao and Tmall remain in the investment phase. In short, BABA is fighting an uphill battle, making large investments without clear visibility on when the investments will pay off. Hence, we are skeptical at a near-term turnaround in the business profile and prefer to avoid this stock until greater stability on its core commerce units. Falling behind peers in global growth AIDC revenue growth of 29% y/y was largely driven by cross-border e-commerce, AE Choice. Although AE Choice covers over 200 countries globally, its GMV is still relatively small compared with Temu which is generating roughly $350mn - $400mn weekly GMV run-rate, per YipitData. User experience, rather than geographic coverage, is a key determinant of e-commerce success rate. Temu has been actively shortening the cross-border shipping time to the US, as well as working with the semi-managed model to onboard new merchants and expand its SKU selection to compete against larger incumbents such as Amazon (AMZN). Anecdotal evidence indicates that AE Choice’s shipping time continues to underwhelm, while Temu has been able to narrow down the delivery window to around two weeks. The longer BABA takes to bring a comparable user experience in terms of product selection and delivery time, the wider the gap BABA has with its biggest competitor and the farther back it will trail in terms of customer experience. Valuation likely to remain depressed in the near term In the context of valuation, BABA’s 9x 2025E consensus earnings may appear to be a value play given that the current forward multiple is trading at a 10-year low and well below its historical average.   Capital IQ, Astrada Advisors However, we feel that it is more of a value trap given its soft near-term growth trajectory. We note that the current consensus is looking at 7.5% revenue growth and 6.5% earnings growth for 2025E, which is significantly below that of PDD which is growing at 6x faster revenue and earnings growth while trading at 1 turn below that of BABA on a forward P/E basis.   Capital IQ, Astrada Advisors  With a slower growth profile, we simply do not believe that BABA’s current valuation is justified, even when it is trading at a historically low single-digit forward P/E. As such, we believe investors are better off with PDD, given its higher global growth potential and its position as a market share gainer in China’s e-commerce space.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}