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2023-01-16

[微笑]

@2c0f2a6c:每日收盤總結1月16日

2022-12-11

👍

@钛媒体APP:12月8日新股速遞

2021-08-22

???

See you next week at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting! Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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股，發行價8.22元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.26億元，與擬募資淨額持平。具體股價表現：發行價：8.22元開盤價：9.86元最高價：11.84元最低價：9.86元收盤價：11.84元漲跌幅：+44.04%換手率：3.52%公司市值：154.94億二、晶品科技（股票代碼：688084）12月8日，晶品科技登陸上交所科創板。公司主營業務爲光電偵察設備和軍用機器人的研發、生產和銷售，主要產品包括多個型號系列的無人機光電吊艙、手持光電偵察設備、夜視多功能眼鏡、手持穿牆雷達、排爆機器人、多用途機器人、便攜式偵察機器人等。募資情況：本次IPO，晶品科技擬公開發行股票1900.00萬股，佔此次發行後總股本的25.00%，發行後總股本爲7565.9066萬股，扣除發行費用後擬募資淨額爲6.30億元，擬用於特種機器人南通產業基地（一期）建設項目，研發中心提升項目與補充流動資金。本次實際發行1900.00萬股，實際發行價格60.98元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.67億元，高於擬募資淨額。具體股價表現：發行價：60.98元開盤價：79.90元最高價：101.00元最低價：78.00元收盤價：88.10元漲跌幅：+44.47%換手率：66.82%總市值：66.66億三、光華股份（股票代碼：001333）12月8日，光華股份登陸深交所主板。公司的主營業務是粉末","listText":"一、寧波遠洋（股票代碼：601022）12月8日，寧波遠洋登陸深交所主板。公司的主營業務和服務爲國際、沿海和長江航線的航運業務、船舶代理業務及幹散貨貨運代理業務。募資情況：本次IPO，寧波遠洋擬公開發行股票數量爲1.31億股，佔本次發行後總股本的10%，發行後總股本爲13.09億股。扣除發行費用後擬募資淨額爲10.26億元，擬用於集裝箱船購置項目，散貨船購置項目，10000TEU集裝箱購置項目與補充流動資金項目。本次實際發行股份1.31億股，發行價8.22元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.26億元，與擬募資淨額持平。具體股價表現：發行價：8.22元開盤價：9.86元最高價：11.84元最低價：9.86元收盤價：11.84元漲跌幅：+44.04%換手率：3.52%公司市值：154.94億二、晶品科技（股票代碼：688084）12月8日，晶品科技登陸上交所科創板。公司主營業務爲光電偵察設備和軍用機器人的研發、生產和銷售，主要產品包括多個型號系列的無人機光電吊艙、手持光電偵察設備、夜視多功能眼鏡、手持穿牆雷達、排爆機器人、多用途機器人、便攜式偵察機器人等。募資情況：本次IPO，晶品科技擬公開發行股票1900.00萬股，佔此次發行後總股本的25.00%，發行後總股本爲7565.9066萬股，扣除發行費用後擬募資淨額爲6.30億元，擬用於特種機器人南通產業基地（一期）建設項目，研發中心提升項目與補充流動資金。本次實際發行1900.00萬股，實際發行價格60.98元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.67億元，高於擬募資淨額。具體股價表現：發行價：60.98元開盤價：79.90元最高價：101.00元最低價：78.00元收盤價：88.10元漲跌幅：+44.47%換手率：66.82%總市值：66.66億三、光華股份（股票代碼：001333）12月8日，光華股份登陸深交所主板。公司的主營業務是粉末","text":"一、寧波遠洋（股票代碼：601022）12月8日，寧波遠洋登陸深交所主板。公司的主營業務和服務爲國際、沿海和長江航線的航運業務、船舶代理業務及幹散貨貨運代理業務。募資情況：本次IPO，寧波遠洋擬公開發行股票數量爲1.31億股，佔本次發行後總股本的10%，發行後總股本爲13.09億股。扣除發行費用後擬募資淨額爲10.26億元，擬用於集裝箱船購置項目，散貨船購置項目，10000TEU集裝箱購置項目與補充流動資金項目。本次實際發行股份1.31億股，發行價8.22元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.26億元，與擬募資淨額持平。具體股價表現：發行價：8.22元開盤價：9.86元最高價：11.84元最低價：9.86元收盤價：11.84元漲跌幅：+44.04%換手率：3.52%公司市值：154.94億二、晶品科技（股票代碼：688084）12月8日，晶品科技登陸上交所科創板。公司主營業務爲光電偵察設備和軍用機器人的研發、生產和銷售，主要產品包括多個型號系列的無人機光電吊艙、手持光電偵察設備、夜視多功能眼鏡、手持穿牆雷達、排爆機器人、多用途機器人、便攜式偵察機器人等。募資情況：本次IPO，晶品科技擬公開發行股票1900.00萬股，佔此次發行後總股本的25.00%，發行後總股本爲7565.9066萬股，扣除發行費用後擬募資淨額爲6.30億元，擬用於特種機器人南通產業基地（一期）建設項目，研發中心提升項目與補充流動資金。本次實際發行1900.00萬股，實際發行價格60.98元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.67億元，高於擬募資淨額。具體股價表現：發行價：60.98元開盤價：79.90元最高價：101.00元最低價：78.00元收盤價：88.10元漲跌幅：+44.47%換手率：66.82%總市值：66.66億三、光華股份（股票代碼：001333）12月8日，光華股份登陸深交所主板。公司的主營業務是粉末","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/629620297","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832256565,"gmtCreate":1629643641057,"gmtModify":1676530084809,"author":{"id":"3564115286968963","authorId":"3564115286968963","name":"嗨逛全球","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbea587b8e0dc3d629138926da1bfdb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564115286968963","idStr":"3564115286968963"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832256565","repostId":"2161742158","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2161742158","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629634618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161742158?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-22 20:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"See you next week at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting! Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161742158","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。\n杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全","content":"<p>The annual Jackson Hole Global Central Banks Annual Meeting will be held online from August 26-28, for the second year in a row. The theme of this conference is \"Macroeconomic Policy in an Unbalanced Economy,\" which will feature a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.</p><p>The Jackson Hole annual meeting has always been regarded as a bellwether for the next policy direction of global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, and this year's meeting is as important as ever. It is widely expected that Powell will disclose more details of Taper's roadmap at this meeting.</p><p>However, the repeated epidemic has added variables. Some analysts believe that Powell is more likely to announce Taper's related content at the September interest rate meeting.</p><p><h2><b>Fed Taper Gets Closer</b></h2>The Fed is facing a critical node in when to start supporting the economy with excessively easy monetary policy during the pullback/retracement pandemic. According to past experience, Powell may throw a \"blockbuster\" at this meeting.</p><p>At the FOMC monetary policy meeting in June, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal that surprised the market, sharply raised its economic and inflation expectations this year, hinting at two rate hike in 2023, but did not mention tapering QE. The minutes of the FOMC meeting released in July also showed that the Federal Reserve had indeed started to discuss Taper, but it could not reach a consensus.</p><p>Some Fed officials said that if the pace of recovery of the US economy can be in line with the Fed's expectations, it is appropriate to start scaling back QE this year. However, some Fed officials believe that it is more appropriate to start reducing QE early next year.</p><p>And the latest release of strong July economic data puts the Fed on the right track to open Taper soon. As inflation in the United States continues to explode and employment improves sharply, the Fed's Taper, which affects the market's nerves, may come faster and more violently than expected.</p><p>Investors have been seeking a clear timing for tapering QE, with Powell previously saying after the July FOMC meeting:</p><p>The Fed will adjust policy when inflation expectations are out of range, slowly steering the market toward Taper. Powell said that the Fed's \"strong policy tools\" have many limitations. In contrast, fiscal or government policy is more robust, and monetary policy cannot bring targeted benefits. This seems to be paving the way for excessively loose monetary policy in pullback/retracement.</p><p><h2><b>Wall Street expects no big move from the Fed</b></h2>For the Federal Reserve, it is easy to \"open the tap\", but it needs to be cautious when \"tightening\", communicate in advance and step by step to avoid causing market turmoil.</p><p>Additionally, the pandemic has kept the Jackson Hole annual meeting low-key: a dramatically reduced guest list, restrictions on local open facilities, masks mandatory for attendees, and the need for vaccinations for both them and their families, among other things. Later, the Fed simply changed the meeting to online.</p><p>Some investors believe that there will be no major policy announcement at this meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Analyst Mark Cabana agrees, saying:</p><p>We don't think this is the time when Powell really wants to have a big fight. We feel that he won't reveal a specific Taper roadmap before the Fed's interest rate meeting in September. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist of TD Ameritrade, believes that the Delta variant virus has put the Fed in a wait-and-see mode, which is not enough to press the open button of official Taper. It is necessary to observe whether the economy and employment can develop at the current rate.</p><p>Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk said Powell should provide the Fed's Taper roadmap, but at the same time warned that the Fed has the ability to take a step back if Covid becomes worse than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Jiasheng Group</a>Joe Perry, a senior analyst, believes that Powell is likely to wait until the Fed's interest rate meeting in September before announcing the reduction of QE, which will give the Fed more time to observe the U.S. non-farm payrolls data in August and pay attention to whether the confirmed cases caused by Delta variant virus are declining. He said:</p><p>At this stage, the Federal Reserve is mainly concerned about two points: first, the non-farm payrolls data in August, and second, the impact of Delta variant virus on economic recovery.<h2>How does Fed Taper affect the market?</h2>Although the market expects the Fed to taper its bond purchases soon, the probability of rate hike in the next year is low. Prices of futures contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark rate show a roughly 50% chance of a rate hike in November 2022 and a 69% chance of a December rate hike.</p><p>In addition, the uncertainty of the U.S. economic outlook is quite high. The Delta variant virus has caused the epidemic to rebound in the United States, which may damage the economic and employment trends, and the continued high inflation in the United States will also affect the specific details of the Fed's announcement of Taper.</p><p>So, will the Fed Taper still trigger a \"shrinking balance sheet panic\" in the market this time?</p><p>Wall Street analysts generally expect that the Federal Reserve has gradually established an effective communication mechanism with the market after years of experience. Each Fed meeting unleashes some perspective on future policies and the economy on the market. The market already has enough psychological expectations for the Fed Taper.</p><p>Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, noted that the Fed's monetary policy tightening may be different this time.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve announced Taper, U.S. stocks may face a correction in a short time, but the simple tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is not enough to constitute the driving factor for the sharp adjustment of U.S. stocks, so investors don't have to panic. Additionally, interest rates are also likely to remain near zero through 2023. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, said:</p><p>At present, the focus of the market is still the economic recovery in the United States and the impact of Delta variant virus. If the U.S. economy maintains a steady recovery and the employment situation continues to improve, then U.S. stocks may continue to rise. John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, also encouraged investors to remain optimistic:</p><p>Not only do I think the S&P 500 is likely to move slightly higher, but I think the S&P 500 is likely to reach 4700 by the end of the year.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>See you next week at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting! Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSee you next week at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting! Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-22 20:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The annual Jackson Hole Global Central Banks Annual Meeting will be held online from August 26-28, for the second year in a row. The theme of this conference is \"Macroeconomic Policy in an Unbalanced Economy,\" which will feature a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.</p><p>The Jackson Hole annual meeting has always been regarded as a bellwether for the next policy direction of global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, and this year's meeting is as important as ever. It is widely expected that Powell will disclose more details of Taper's roadmap at this meeting.</p><p>However, the repeated epidemic has added variables. Some analysts believe that Powell is more likely to announce Taper's related content at the September interest rate meeting.</p><p><h2><b>Fed Taper Gets Closer</b></h2>The Fed is facing a critical node in when to start supporting the economy with excessively easy monetary policy during the pullback/retracement pandemic. According to past experience, Powell may throw a \"blockbuster\" at this meeting.</p><p>At the FOMC monetary policy meeting in June, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal that surprised the market, sharply raised its economic and inflation expectations this year, hinting at two rate hike in 2023, but did not mention tapering QE. The minutes of the FOMC meeting released in July also showed that the Federal Reserve had indeed started to discuss Taper, but it could not reach a consensus.</p><p>Some Fed officials said that if the pace of recovery of the US economy can be in line with the Fed's expectations, it is appropriate to start scaling back QE this year. However, some Fed officials believe that it is more appropriate to start reducing QE early next year.</p><p>And the latest release of strong July economic data puts the Fed on the right track to open Taper soon. As inflation in the United States continues to explode and employment improves sharply, the Fed's Taper, which affects the market's nerves, may come faster and more violently than expected.</p><p>Investors have been seeking a clear timing for tapering QE, with Powell previously saying after the July FOMC meeting:</p><p>The Fed will adjust policy when inflation expectations are out of range, slowly steering the market toward Taper. Powell said that the Fed's \"strong policy tools\" have many limitations. In contrast, fiscal or government policy is more robust, and monetary policy cannot bring targeted benefits. This seems to be paving the way for excessively loose monetary policy in pullback/retracement.</p><p><h2><b>Wall Street expects no big move from the Fed</b></h2>For the Federal Reserve, it is easy to \"open the tap\", but it needs to be cautious when \"tightening\", communicate in advance and step by step to avoid causing market turmoil.</p><p>Additionally, the pandemic has kept the Jackson Hole annual meeting low-key: a dramatically reduced guest list, restrictions on local open facilities, masks mandatory for attendees, and the need for vaccinations for both them and their families, among other things. Later, the Fed simply changed the meeting to online.</p><p>Some investors believe that there will be no major policy announcement at this meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Analyst Mark Cabana agrees, saying:</p><p>We don't think this is the time when Powell really wants to have a big fight. We feel that he won't reveal a specific Taper roadmap before the Fed's interest rate meeting in September. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist of TD Ameritrade, believes that the Delta variant virus has put the Fed in a wait-and-see mode, which is not enough to press the open button of official Taper. It is necessary to observe whether the economy and employment can develop at the current rate.</p><p>Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk said Powell should provide the Fed's Taper roadmap, but at the same time warned that the Fed has the ability to take a step back if Covid becomes worse than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Jiasheng Group</a>Joe Perry, a senior analyst, believes that Powell is likely to wait until the Fed's interest rate meeting in September before announcing the reduction of QE, which will give the Fed more time to observe the U.S. non-farm payrolls data in August and pay attention to whether the confirmed cases caused by Delta variant virus are declining. He said:</p><p>At this stage, the Federal Reserve is mainly concerned about two points: first, the non-farm payrolls data in August, and second, the impact of Delta variant virus on economic recovery.<h2>How does Fed Taper affect the market?</h2>Although the market expects the Fed to taper its bond purchases soon, the probability of rate hike in the next year is low. Prices of futures contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark rate show a roughly 50% chance of a rate hike in November 2022 and a 69% chance of a December rate hike.</p><p>In addition, the uncertainty of the U.S. economic outlook is quite high. The Delta variant virus has caused the epidemic to rebound in the United States, which may damage the economic and employment trends, and the continued high inflation in the United States will also affect the specific details of the Fed's announcement of Taper.</p><p>So, will the Fed Taper still trigger a \"shrinking balance sheet panic\" in the market this time?</p><p>Wall Street analysts generally expect that the Federal Reserve has gradually established an effective communication mechanism with the market after years of experience. Each Fed meeting unleashes some perspective on future policies and the economy on the market. The market already has enough psychological expectations for the Fed Taper.</p><p>Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, noted that the Fed's monetary policy tightening may be different this time.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve announced Taper, U.S. stocks may face a correction in a short time, but the simple tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is not enough to constitute the driving factor for the sharp adjustment of U.S. stocks, so investors don't have to panic. Additionally, interest rates are also likely to remain near zero through 2023. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, said:</p><p>At present, the focus of the market is still the economic recovery in the United States and the impact of Delta variant virus. If the U.S. economy maintains a steady recovery and the employment situation continues to improve, then U.S. stocks may continue to rise. John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, also encouraged investors to remain optimistic:</p><p>Not only do I think the S&P 500 is likely to move slightly higher, but I think the S&P 500 is likely to reach 4700 by the end of the year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638541\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92849ddf94d54bf9e6af60671fe1ef1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638541","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161742158","content_text":"一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。\n杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全球央行尤其是美联储下一阶段政策走向的风向标，今年的会议也一如既往地重要。市场普遍预期，鲍威尔会在本次会议上披露Taper路线图的更多细节。\n不过，疫情的反复增添了变数，有分析师认为，鲍威尔更可能在9月议息会议上宣布Taper的相关内容。\n美联储Taper越来越近\n美联储正面临何时开始回撤疫情期间超量宽松货币政策支持经济的关键节点。按以往经验看，鲍威尔可能会在本次会议上扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n在6月的FOMC货币政策会议上，美联储释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，大幅上调今年经济和通胀预期，暗示2023年会有两次加息，但没有提到缩减QE。7月公布的FOMC会议纪要又显示，美联储确实已经开始讨论Taper事宜，不过无法达成共识。\n部分美联储官员表示，如果美国经济的复苏步伐能与美联储预期一致，那么今年开始缩减QE是合适的。但也有一部分美联储官员认为，明年初开始缩减QE才比较合适。\n而最新公布的强劲的7月经济数据使美联储处于即将开启Taper的正轨之上。随着美国通胀持续爆表，就业大幅改善，牵动市场神经的美联储Taper可能来得比预期更快、更猛烈。\n投资者一直在寻求明确的缩减QE的时间，鲍威尔此前在7月FOMC会议后曾表示：\n\n 美联储将在通胀预期超出范围时调整政策，慢慢引导市场走向Taper。\n\n鲍威尔表示，美联储“强有力的政策工具”存在诸多局限性，相比之下，财政或政府政策更加有力，货币政策无法带来定向的好处。这似乎是在为回撤超量宽松货币政策作铺垫。\n华尔街预期美联储不会有大动作\n对于美联储来说，“打开放水龙头”容易，“拧紧”时却需要谨慎，提前沟通，循序渐进，避免引发市场动荡。\n此外，疫情的肆虐使得杰克逊霍尔年会变得低调：来宾名单大幅缩减、当地开放设施受限制、与会者必须戴口罩，以及他们和家人都需要接种疫苗等。后来，美联储干脆将这次会议改为线上举行。\n部分投资者认为，本次会议不会有重大的政策公布。美国银行分析师Mark Cabana同意这类观点并称：\n\n 我们不认为现在是鲍威尔真正想有大干一场的时候。我们觉得，他不会在9月的美联储利率会议之前透露具体的Taper路线图。\n\nTD Ameritrade首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan认为，Delta变异病毒令美联储处于观望模式，还不足以按下正式Taper的开启键，需要观察经济和就业能否以当前速度发展。\nGrant Thornton首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，鲍威尔应提供美联储Taper路线图，但同时警告称，如果新冠疫情变得比预期更严重，美联储有能力后退一步。\n嘉盛集团资深分析师Joe Perry认为，鲍威尔很有可能等到9月的美联储议息会议才宣布缩减QE，这将给美联储更多的时间，观察8月的美国非农就业数据究竟如何，并关注Delta变异病毒造成的确诊病例是否在下降。他称：\n\n 美联储现阶段主要关注两点：一是8月非农就业数据，二是Delta变异病毒对经济复苏的影响程度。\n\n美联储Taper对市场影响几何？\n尽管市场预计美联储缩减购债规模在即，但是在未来一年内加息的概率较低。与美联储基准利率挂钩的期货合约价格显示，2022年11月加息的可能性约为50%，12月加息的可能性为69%。\n此外，美国经济前景不确定性相当高。Delta变异病毒令美国疫情出现反弹，可能会损害经济和就业趋势，且美国通胀持续高企，也会影响美联储公布Taper的具体细节。\n那么，这次美联储Taper还会引发市场“缩表恐慌”吗？\n华尔街分析师普遍预计，美联储经过多年经验积累，已经与市场逐步建立了有效的沟通机制。每次美联储会议都会对市场释放一些对未来政策和经济的看法。市场对美联储Taper已经有了足够的心理预期。\nSwissquote高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya指出，美联储此次收紧货币政策可能有所不同。\n\n 美联储宣布Taper后，美股短时间内可能会面临回调，但是单纯的美联储收紧货币政策不足以构成美股大幅调整的驱动因素，投资者不必恐慌。此外，利率也可能会在2023年前保持接近零的水平。\n\nIndependent Advisor Alliance首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示：\n\n 目前市场关注的焦点仍是美国经济复苏情况和Delta变异病毒的影响。如果美国经济保持稳步恢复，就业情况持续改善，那么美股或将继续上行。\n\nOppenheimer Asset Management首席投资策略师John Stoltzfus也鼓励投资者保持乐观：\n\n 我不仅认为标普500指数可能会小幅走高，还认为年底前标普500指数可能会达到4700点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SH":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":832256565,"gmtCreate":1629643641057,"gmtModify":1676530084809,"author":{"id":"3564115286968963","authorId":"3564115286968963","name":"嗨逛全球","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbea587b8e0dc3d629138926da1bfdb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564115286968963","idStr":"3564115286968963"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832256565","repostId":"2161742158","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2161742158","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629634618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161742158?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-22 20:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"See you next week at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting! Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161742158","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。\n杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全","content":"<p>The annual Jackson Hole Global Central Banks Annual Meeting will be held online from August 26-28, for the second year in a row. The theme of this conference is \"Macroeconomic Policy in an Unbalanced Economy,\" which will feature a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.</p><p>The Jackson Hole annual meeting has always been regarded as a bellwether for the next policy direction of global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, and this year's meeting is as important as ever. It is widely expected that Powell will disclose more details of Taper's roadmap at this meeting.</p><p>However, the repeated epidemic has added variables. Some analysts believe that Powell is more likely to announce Taper's related content at the September interest rate meeting.</p><p><h2><b>Fed Taper Gets Closer</b></h2>The Fed is facing a critical node in when to start supporting the economy with excessively easy monetary policy during the pullback/retracement pandemic. According to past experience, Powell may throw a \"blockbuster\" at this meeting.</p><p>At the FOMC monetary policy meeting in June, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal that surprised the market, sharply raised its economic and inflation expectations this year, hinting at two rate hike in 2023, but did not mention tapering QE. The minutes of the FOMC meeting released in July also showed that the Federal Reserve had indeed started to discuss Taper, but it could not reach a consensus.</p><p>Some Fed officials said that if the pace of recovery of the US economy can be in line with the Fed's expectations, it is appropriate to start scaling back QE this year. However, some Fed officials believe that it is more appropriate to start reducing QE early next year.</p><p>And the latest release of strong July economic data puts the Fed on the right track to open Taper soon. As inflation in the United States continues to explode and employment improves sharply, the Fed's Taper, which affects the market's nerves, may come faster and more violently than expected.</p><p>Investors have been seeking a clear timing for tapering QE, with Powell previously saying after the July FOMC meeting:</p><p>The Fed will adjust policy when inflation expectations are out of range, slowly steering the market toward Taper. Powell said that the Fed's \"strong policy tools\" have many limitations. In contrast, fiscal or government policy is more robust, and monetary policy cannot bring targeted benefits. This seems to be paving the way for excessively loose monetary policy in pullback/retracement.</p><p><h2><b>Wall Street expects no big move from the Fed</b></h2>For the Federal Reserve, it is easy to \"open the tap\", but it needs to be cautious when \"tightening\", communicate in advance and step by step to avoid causing market turmoil.</p><p>Additionally, the pandemic has kept the Jackson Hole annual meeting low-key: a dramatically reduced guest list, restrictions on local open facilities, masks mandatory for attendees, and the need for vaccinations for both them and their families, among other things. Later, the Fed simply changed the meeting to online.</p><p>Some investors believe that there will be no major policy announcement at this meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Analyst Mark Cabana agrees, saying:</p><p>We don't think this is the time when Powell really wants to have a big fight. We feel that he won't reveal a specific Taper roadmap before the Fed's interest rate meeting in September. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist of TD Ameritrade, believes that the Delta variant virus has put the Fed in a wait-and-see mode, which is not enough to press the open button of official Taper. It is necessary to observe whether the economy and employment can develop at the current rate.</p><p>Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk said Powell should provide the Fed's Taper roadmap, but at the same time warned that the Fed has the ability to take a step back if Covid becomes worse than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Jiasheng Group</a>Joe Perry, a senior analyst, believes that Powell is likely to wait until the Fed's interest rate meeting in September before announcing the reduction of QE, which will give the Fed more time to observe the U.S. non-farm payrolls data in August and pay attention to whether the confirmed cases caused by Delta variant virus are declining. He said:</p><p>At this stage, the Federal Reserve is mainly concerned about two points: first, the non-farm payrolls data in August, and second, the impact of Delta variant virus on economic recovery.<h2>How does Fed Taper affect the market?</h2>Although the market expects the Fed to taper its bond purchases soon, the probability of rate hike in the next year is low. Prices of futures contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark rate show a roughly 50% chance of a rate hike in November 2022 and a 69% chance of a December rate hike.</p><p>In addition, the uncertainty of the U.S. economic outlook is quite high. The Delta variant virus has caused the epidemic to rebound in the United States, which may damage the economic and employment trends, and the continued high inflation in the United States will also affect the specific details of the Fed's announcement of Taper.</p><p>So, will the Fed Taper still trigger a \"shrinking balance sheet panic\" in the market this time?</p><p>Wall Street analysts generally expect that the Federal Reserve has gradually established an effective communication mechanism with the market after years of experience. Each Fed meeting unleashes some perspective on future policies and the economy on the market. The market already has enough psychological expectations for the Fed Taper.</p><p>Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, noted that the Fed's monetary policy tightening may be different this time.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve announced Taper, U.S. stocks may face a correction in a short time, but the simple tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is not enough to constitute the driving factor for the sharp adjustment of U.S. stocks, so investors don't have to panic. Additionally, interest rates are also likely to remain near zero through 2023. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, said:</p><p>At present, the focus of the market is still the economic recovery in the United States and the impact of Delta variant virus. If the U.S. economy maintains a steady recovery and the employment situation continues to improve, then U.S. stocks may continue to rise. John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, also encouraged investors to remain optimistic:</p><p>Not only do I think the S&P 500 is likely to move slightly higher, but I think the S&P 500 is likely to reach 4700 by the end of the year.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>See you next week at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting! Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSee you next week at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting! Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-22 20:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The annual Jackson Hole Global Central Banks Annual Meeting will be held online from August 26-28, for the second year in a row. The theme of this conference is \"Macroeconomic Policy in an Unbalanced Economy,\" which will feature a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.</p><p>The Jackson Hole annual meeting has always been regarded as a bellwether for the next policy direction of global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, and this year's meeting is as important as ever. It is widely expected that Powell will disclose more details of Taper's roadmap at this meeting.</p><p>However, the repeated epidemic has added variables. Some analysts believe that Powell is more likely to announce Taper's related content at the September interest rate meeting.</p><p><h2><b>Fed Taper Gets Closer</b></h2>The Fed is facing a critical node in when to start supporting the economy with excessively easy monetary policy during the pullback/retracement pandemic. According to past experience, Powell may throw a \"blockbuster\" at this meeting.</p><p>At the FOMC monetary policy meeting in June, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal that surprised the market, sharply raised its economic and inflation expectations this year, hinting at two rate hike in 2023, but did not mention tapering QE. The minutes of the FOMC meeting released in July also showed that the Federal Reserve had indeed started to discuss Taper, but it could not reach a consensus.</p><p>Some Fed officials said that if the pace of recovery of the US economy can be in line with the Fed's expectations, it is appropriate to start scaling back QE this year. However, some Fed officials believe that it is more appropriate to start reducing QE early next year.</p><p>And the latest release of strong July economic data puts the Fed on the right track to open Taper soon. As inflation in the United States continues to explode and employment improves sharply, the Fed's Taper, which affects the market's nerves, may come faster and more violently than expected.</p><p>Investors have been seeking a clear timing for tapering QE, with Powell previously saying after the July FOMC meeting:</p><p>The Fed will adjust policy when inflation expectations are out of range, slowly steering the market toward Taper. Powell said that the Fed's \"strong policy tools\" have many limitations. In contrast, fiscal or government policy is more robust, and monetary policy cannot bring targeted benefits. This seems to be paving the way for excessively loose monetary policy in pullback/retracement.</p><p><h2><b>Wall Street expects no big move from the Fed</b></h2>For the Federal Reserve, it is easy to \"open the tap\", but it needs to be cautious when \"tightening\", communicate in advance and step by step to avoid causing market turmoil.</p><p>Additionally, the pandemic has kept the Jackson Hole annual meeting low-key: a dramatically reduced guest list, restrictions on local open facilities, masks mandatory for attendees, and the need for vaccinations for both them and their families, among other things. Later, the Fed simply changed the meeting to online.</p><p>Some investors believe that there will be no major policy announcement at this meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Analyst Mark Cabana agrees, saying:</p><p>We don't think this is the time when Powell really wants to have a big fight. We feel that he won't reveal a specific Taper roadmap before the Fed's interest rate meeting in September. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist of TD Ameritrade, believes that the Delta variant virus has put the Fed in a wait-and-see mode, which is not enough to press the open button of official Taper. It is necessary to observe whether the economy and employment can develop at the current rate.</p><p>Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk said Powell should provide the Fed's Taper roadmap, but at the same time warned that the Fed has the ability to take a step back if Covid becomes worse than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Jiasheng Group</a>Joe Perry, a senior analyst, believes that Powell is likely to wait until the Fed's interest rate meeting in September before announcing the reduction of QE, which will give the Fed more time to observe the U.S. non-farm payrolls data in August and pay attention to whether the confirmed cases caused by Delta variant virus are declining. He said:</p><p>At this stage, the Federal Reserve is mainly concerned about two points: first, the non-farm payrolls data in August, and second, the impact of Delta variant virus on economic recovery.<h2>How does Fed Taper affect the market?</h2>Although the market expects the Fed to taper its bond purchases soon, the probability of rate hike in the next year is low. Prices of futures contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark rate show a roughly 50% chance of a rate hike in November 2022 and a 69% chance of a December rate hike.</p><p>In addition, the uncertainty of the U.S. economic outlook is quite high. The Delta variant virus has caused the epidemic to rebound in the United States, which may damage the economic and employment trends, and the continued high inflation in the United States will also affect the specific details of the Fed's announcement of Taper.</p><p>So, will the Fed Taper still trigger a \"shrinking balance sheet panic\" in the market this time?</p><p>Wall Street analysts generally expect that the Federal Reserve has gradually established an effective communication mechanism with the market after years of experience. Each Fed meeting unleashes some perspective on future policies and the economy on the market. The market already has enough psychological expectations for the Fed Taper.</p><p>Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, noted that the Fed's monetary policy tightening may be different this time.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve announced Taper, U.S. stocks may face a correction in a short time, but the simple tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is not enough to constitute the driving factor for the sharp adjustment of U.S. stocks, so investors don't have to panic. Additionally, interest rates are also likely to remain near zero through 2023. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, said:</p><p>At present, the focus of the market is still the economic recovery in the United States and the impact of Delta variant virus. If the U.S. economy maintains a steady recovery and the employment situation continues to improve, then U.S. stocks may continue to rise. John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, also encouraged investors to remain optimistic:</p><p>Not only do I think the S&P 500 is likely to move slightly higher, but I think the S&P 500 is likely to reach 4700 by the end of the year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638541\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92849ddf94d54bf9e6af60671fe1ef1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638541","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161742158","content_text":"一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。\n杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全球央行尤其是美联储下一阶段政策走向的风向标，今年的会议也一如既往地重要。市场普遍预期，鲍威尔会在本次会议上披露Taper路线图的更多细节。\n不过，疫情的反复增添了变数，有分析师认为，鲍威尔更可能在9月议息会议上宣布Taper的相关内容。\n美联储Taper越来越近\n美联储正面临何时开始回撤疫情期间超量宽松货币政策支持经济的关键节点。按以往经验看，鲍威尔可能会在本次会议上扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n在6月的FOMC货币政策会议上，美联储释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，大幅上调今年经济和通胀预期，暗示2023年会有两次加息，但没有提到缩减QE。7月公布的FOMC会议纪要又显示，美联储确实已经开始讨论Taper事宜，不过无法达成共识。\n部分美联储官员表示，如果美国经济的复苏步伐能与美联储预期一致，那么今年开始缩减QE是合适的。但也有一部分美联储官员认为，明年初开始缩减QE才比较合适。\n而最新公布的强劲的7月经济数据使美联储处于即将开启Taper的正轨之上。随着美国通胀持续爆表，就业大幅改善，牵动市场神经的美联储Taper可能来得比预期更快、更猛烈。\n投资者一直在寻求明确的缩减QE的时间，鲍威尔此前在7月FOMC会议后曾表示：\n\n 美联储将在通胀预期超出范围时调整政策，慢慢引导市场走向Taper。\n\n鲍威尔表示，美联储“强有力的政策工具”存在诸多局限性，相比之下，财政或政府政策更加有力，货币政策无法带来定向的好处。这似乎是在为回撤超量宽松货币政策作铺垫。\n华尔街预期美联储不会有大动作\n对于美联储来说，“打开放水龙头”容易，“拧紧”时却需要谨慎，提前沟通，循序渐进，避免引发市场动荡。\n此外，疫情的肆虐使得杰克逊霍尔年会变得低调：来宾名单大幅缩减、当地开放设施受限制、与会者必须戴口罩，以及他们和家人都需要接种疫苗等。后来，美联储干脆将这次会议改为线上举行。\n部分投资者认为，本次会议不会有重大的政策公布。美国银行分析师Mark Cabana同意这类观点并称：\n\n 我们不认为现在是鲍威尔真正想有大干一场的时候。我们觉得，他不会在9月的美联储利率会议之前透露具体的Taper路线图。\n\nTD Ameritrade首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan认为，Delta变异病毒令美联储处于观望模式，还不足以按下正式Taper的开启键，需要观察经济和就业能否以当前速度发展。\nGrant Thornton首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，鲍威尔应提供美联储Taper路线图，但同时警告称，如果新冠疫情变得比预期更严重，美联储有能力后退一步。\n嘉盛集团资深分析师Joe Perry认为，鲍威尔很有可能等到9月的美联储议息会议才宣布缩减QE，这将给美联储更多的时间，观察8月的美国非农就业数据究竟如何，并关注Delta变异病毒造成的确诊病例是否在下降。他称：\n\n 美联储现阶段主要关注两点：一是8月非农就业数据，二是Delta变异病毒对经济复苏的影响程度。\n\n美联储Taper对市场影响几何？\n尽管市场预计美联储缩减购债规模在即，但是在未来一年内加息的概率较低。与美联储基准利率挂钩的期货合约价格显示，2022年11月加息的可能性约为50%，12月加息的可能性为69%。\n此外，美国经济前景不确定性相当高。Delta变异病毒令美国疫情出现反弹，可能会损害经济和就业趋势，且美国通胀持续高企，也会影响美联储公布Taper的具体细节。\n那么，这次美联储Taper还会引发市场“缩表恐慌”吗？\n华尔街分析师普遍预计，美联储经过多年经验积累，已经与市场逐步建立了有效的沟通机制。每次美联储会议都会对市场释放一些对未来政策和经济的看法。市场对美联储Taper已经有了足够的心理预期。\nSwissquote高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya指出，美联储此次收紧货币政策可能有所不同。\n\n 美联储宣布Taper后，美股短时间内可能会面临回调，但是单纯的美联储收紧货币政策不足以构成美股大幅调整的驱动因素，投资者不必恐慌。此外，利率也可能会在2023年前保持接近零的水平。\n\nIndependent Advisor Alliance首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示：\n\n 目前市场关注的焦点仍是美国经济复苏情况和Delta变异病毒的影响。如果美国经济保持稳步恢复，就业情况持续改善，那么美股或将继续上行。\n\nOppenheimer Asset Management首席投资策略师John Stoltzfus也鼓励投资者保持乐观：\n\n 我不仅认为标普500指数可能会小幅走高，还认为年底前标普500指数可能会达到4700点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SH":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626355244,"gmtCreate":1673859316590,"gmtModify":1676538895419,"author":{"id":"3564115286968963","authorId":"3564115286968963","name":"嗨逛全球","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbea587b8e0dc3d629138926da1bfdb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564115286968963","idStr":"3564115286968963"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/626355244","repostId":"626352286","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":626352286,"gmtCreate":1673858772747,"gmtModify":1676538895351,"author":{"id":"4131858891646490","authorId":"4131858891646490","name":"2c0f2a6c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4131858891646490","idStr":"4131858891646490"},"themes":[],"title":"每日收盤總結1月16日","htmlText":"收盤點評今日市場全天震盪走高延續反彈之勢，滬指時隔1年重新站上年線重返3200點，金融股再度走強，湘財股份、山西證券、民生控股、弘業期貨等漲停。醫藥股展開反彈，CRO方向領漲，博騰股份漲超10%，凱萊英漲停，恆瑞醫藥一度漲停。數字經濟概念股盤中活躍，數據安全方向領漲，挖金客漲超10%，智微智能、久其軟件等漲停。芯片股震盪走高，英集芯、芯朋微漲超10%，韋爾股份一度觸及漲停。下跌方面，部分前期高位股繼續調整，電子城、麥趣爾跌停。板塊方面，CRO、證券、數據安全、養雞等板塊漲幅居前，旅遊、汽車整車、傳媒、煤炭等板塊跌幅居前。主要指數中，上證50漲1.68%，滬深300漲1.56%，中證500漲1.13%，中證1000漲1.14%；截至收盤，滬指漲1.01%，報收3227點；深成指漲1.58%，報收11785點；創業板指漲1.86%，報收2539點。市場策略兩市延續漲勢，成交量放大，上漲個股超過3700只，我上週說過，低位不敢買的，怕風險的，現在想買，追高吧！持股，這波行情最差都2月底，耐心持股","listText":"收盤點評今日市場全天震盪走高延續反彈之勢，滬指時隔1年重新站上年線重返3200點，金融股再度走強，湘財股份、山西證券、民生控股、弘業期貨等漲停。醫藥股展開反彈，CRO方向領漲，博騰股份漲超10%，凱萊英漲停，恆瑞醫藥一度漲停。數字經濟概念股盤中活躍，數據安全方向領漲，挖金客漲超10%，智微智能、久其軟件等漲停。芯片股震盪走高，英集芯、芯朋微漲超10%，韋爾股份一度觸及漲停。下跌方面，部分前期高位股繼續調整，電子城、麥趣爾跌停。板塊方面，CRO、證券、數據安全、養雞等板塊漲幅居前，旅遊、汽車整車、傳媒、煤炭等板塊跌幅居前。主要指數中，上證50漲1.68%，滬深300漲1.56%，中證500漲1.13%，中證1000漲1.14%；截至收盤，滬指漲1.01%，報收3227點；深成指漲1.58%，報收11785點；創業板指漲1.86%，報收2539點。市場策略兩市延續漲勢，成交量放大，上漲個股超過3700只，我上週說過，低位不敢買的，怕風險的，現在想買，追高吧！持股，這波行情最差都2月底，耐心持股","text":"收盤點評今日市場全天震盪走高延續反彈之勢，滬指時隔1年重新站上年線重返3200點，金融股再度走強，湘財股份、山西證券、民生控股、弘業期貨等漲停。醫藥股展開反彈，CRO方向領漲，博騰股份漲超10%，凱萊英漲停，恆瑞醫藥一度漲停。數字經濟概念股盤中活躍，數據安全方向領漲，挖金客漲超10%，智微智能、久其軟件等漲停。芯片股震盪走高，英集芯、芯朋微漲超10%，韋爾股份一度觸及漲停。下跌方面，部分前期高位股繼續調整，電子城、麥趣爾跌停。板塊方面，CRO、證券、數據安全、養雞等板塊漲幅居前，旅遊、汽車整車、傳媒、煤炭等板塊跌幅居前。主要指數中，上證50漲1.68%，滬深300漲1.56%，中證500漲1.13%，中證1000漲1.14%；截至收盤，滬指漲1.01%，報收3227點；深成指漲1.58%，報收11785點；創業板指漲1.86%，報收2539點。市場策略兩市延續漲勢，成交量放大，上漲個股超過3700只，我上週說過，低位不敢買的，怕風險的，現在想買，追高吧！持股，這波行情最差都2月底，耐心持股","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786edbfb9bbd88a29a8f6250e2ba56a6","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/626352286","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":629434126,"gmtCreate":1670750229467,"gmtModify":1676538427914,"author":{"id":"3564115286968963","authorId":"3564115286968963","name":"嗨逛全球","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbea587b8e0dc3d629138926da1bfdb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564115286968963","idStr":"3564115286968963"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/629434126","repostId":"629620297","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":629620297,"gmtCreate":1670487085021,"gmtModify":1676538378624,"author":{"id":"3574917796328560","authorId":"3574917796328560","name":"钛媒体APP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574917796328560","idStr":"3574917796328560"},"themes":[],"title":"12月8日新股速遞","htmlText":"一、寧波遠洋（股票代碼：601022）12月8日，寧波遠洋登陸深交所主板。公司的主營業務和服務爲國際、沿海和長江航線的航運業務、船舶代理業務及幹散貨貨運代理業務。募資情況：本次IPO，寧波遠洋擬公開發行股票數量爲1.31億股，佔本次發行後總股本的10%，發行後總股本爲13.09億股。扣除發行費用後擬募資淨額爲10.26億元，擬用於集裝箱船購置項目，散貨船購置項目，10000TEU集裝箱購置項目與補充流動資金項目。本次實際發行股份1.31億股，發行價8.22元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.26億元，與擬募資淨額持平。具體股價表現：發行價：8.22元開盤價：9.86元最高價：11.84元最低價：9.86元收盤價：11.84元漲跌幅：+44.04%換手率：3.52%公司市值：154.94億二、晶品科技（股票代碼：688084）12月8日，晶品科技登陸上交所科創板。公司主營業務爲光電偵察設備和軍用機器人的研發、生產和銷售，主要產品包括多個型號系列的無人機光電吊艙、手持光電偵察設備、夜視多功能眼鏡、手持穿牆雷達、排爆機器人、多用途機器人、便攜式偵察機器人等。募資情況：本次IPO，晶品科技擬公開發行股票1900.00萬股，佔此次發行後總股本的25.00%，發行後總股本爲7565.9066萬股，扣除發行費用後擬募資淨額爲6.30億元，擬用於特種機器人南通產業基地（一期）建設項目，研發中心提升項目與補充流動資金。本次實際發行1900.00萬股，實際發行價格60.98元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.67億元，高於擬募資淨額。具體股價表現：發行價：60.98元開盤價：79.90元最高價：101.00元最低價：78.00元收盤價：88.10元漲跌幅：+44.47%換手率：66.82%總市值：66.66億三、光華股份（股票代碼：001333）12月8日，光華股份登陸深交所主板。公司的主營業務是粉末","listText":"一、寧波遠洋（股票代碼：601022）12月8日，寧波遠洋登陸深交所主板。公司的主營業務和服務爲國際、沿海和長江航線的航運業務、船舶代理業務及幹散貨貨運代理業務。募資情況：本次IPO，寧波遠洋擬公開發行股票數量爲1.31億股，佔本次發行後總股本的10%，發行後總股本爲13.09億股。扣除發行費用後擬募資淨額爲10.26億元，擬用於集裝箱船購置項目，散貨船購置項目，10000TEU集裝箱購置項目與補充流動資金項目。本次實際發行股份1.31億股，發行價8.22元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.26億元，與擬募資淨額持平。具體股價表現：發行價：8.22元開盤價：9.86元最高價：11.84元最低價：9.86元收盤價：11.84元漲跌幅：+44.04%換手率：3.52%公司市值：154.94億二、晶品科技（股票代碼：688084）12月8日，晶品科技登陸上交所科創板。公司主營業務爲光電偵察設備和軍用機器人的研發、生產和銷售，主要產品包括多個型號系列的無人機光電吊艙、手持光電偵察設備、夜視多功能眼鏡、手持穿牆雷達、排爆機器人、多用途機器人、便攜式偵察機器人等。募資情況：本次IPO，晶品科技擬公開發行股票1900.00萬股，佔此次發行後總股本的25.00%，發行後總股本爲7565.9066萬股，扣除發行費用後擬募資淨額爲6.30億元，擬用於特種機器人南通產業基地（一期）建設項目，研發中心提升項目與補充流動資金。本次實際發行1900.00萬股，實際發行價格60.98元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.67億元，高於擬募資淨額。具體股價表現：發行價：60.98元開盤價：79.90元最高價：101.00元最低價：78.00元收盤價：88.10元漲跌幅：+44.47%換手率：66.82%總市值：66.66億三、光華股份（股票代碼：001333）12月8日，光華股份登陸深交所主板。公司的主營業務是粉末","text":"一、寧波遠洋（股票代碼：601022）12月8日，寧波遠洋登陸深交所主板。公司的主營業務和服務爲國際、沿海和長江航線的航運業務、船舶代理業務及幹散貨貨運代理業務。募資情況：本次IPO，寧波遠洋擬公開發行股票數量爲1.31億股，佔本次發行後總股本的10%，發行後總股本爲13.09億股。扣除發行費用後擬募資淨額爲10.26億元，擬用於集裝箱船購置項目，散貨船購置項目，10000TEU集裝箱購置項目與補充流動資金項目。本次實際發行股份1.31億股，發行價8.22元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.26億元，與擬募資淨額持平。具體股價表現：發行價：8.22元開盤價：9.86元最高價：11.84元最低價：9.86元收盤價：11.84元漲跌幅：+44.04%換手率：3.52%公司市值：154.94億二、晶品科技（股票代碼：688084）12月8日，晶品科技登陸上交所科創板。公司主營業務爲光電偵察設備和軍用機器人的研發、生產和銷售，主要產品包括多個型號系列的無人機光電吊艙、手持光電偵察設備、夜視多功能眼鏡、手持穿牆雷達、排爆機器人、多用途機器人、便攜式偵察機器人等。募資情況：本次IPO，晶品科技擬公開發行股票1900.00萬股，佔此次發行後總股本的25.00%，發行後總股本爲7565.9066萬股，扣除發行費用後擬募資淨額爲6.30億元，擬用於特種機器人南通產業基地（一期）建設項目，研發中心提升項目與補充流動資金。本次實際發行1900.00萬股，實際發行價格60.98元/股，實際募集資金淨額爲10.67億元，高於擬募資淨額。具體股價表現：發行價：60.98元開盤價：79.90元最高價：101.00元最低價：78.00元收盤價：88.10元漲跌幅：+44.47%換手率：66.82%總市值：66.66億三、光華股份（股票代碼：001333）12月8日，光華股份登陸深交所主板。公司的主營業務是粉末","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/629620297","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}