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Milliamwong

Milliamwong

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2022-11-18

2022-08-08

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2022-05-26

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@首席消费官:蘇泊爾：回購股份最高價調整爲56.03元/股

2022-01-21

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2021-12-30

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2022年白酒展望：否极泰来，再迎辉煌？

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a>buy and hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a>buy and hold","text":"$美国超微公司(AMD)$buy and hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904914821","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022501550,"gmtCreate":1653539157370,"gmtModify":1676535301226,"author":{"id":"3564764075723095","authorId":"3564764075723095","name":"Milliamwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ba146db8355a27c50dcb12de7c4cc8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564764075723095","authorIdStr":"3564764075723095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Laters","listText":"Laters","text":"Laters","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022501550","repostId":"614630423","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614630423,"gmtCreate":1653537963465,"gmtModify":1676533150805,"author":{"id":"3472778809742911","authorId":"3472778809742911","name":"首席消费官","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20ea29a21d2a4d13a41a9a44d28e8cc5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472778809742911","authorIdStr":"3472778809742911"},"themes":[],"title":"蘇泊爾：回購股份最高價調整爲56.03元/股","htmlText":"5月26日，蘇泊爾(002032.SZ)發佈公告稱，自2022年5月26日起調整回購方案中回購價格上限，回購股份最高價將由不超過57.96元/股調整爲56.03元/股，因本次預計回購股份數量不低於808.6785萬股(含)且不超過1617.357萬股(含)。按調整後的回購股份最高價不超過56.03元/股計算，用於回購股份的資金總額最高不超過90620.52萬元(含)且不低於45310.26萬元(含)，資金來源爲自有資金。（蘇泊爾公告）","listText":"5月26日，蘇泊爾(002032.SZ)發佈公告稱，自2022年5月26日起調整回購方案中回購價格上限，回購股份最高價將由不超過57.96元/股調整爲56.03元/股，因本次預計回購股份數量不低於808.6785萬股(含)且不超過1617.357萬股(含)。按調整後的回購股份最高價不超過56.03元/股計算，用於回購股份的資金總額最高不超過90620.52萬元(含)且不低於45310.26萬元(含)，資金來源爲自有資金。（蘇泊爾公告）","text":"5月26日，蘇泊爾(002032.SZ)發佈公告稱，自2022年5月26日起調整回購方案中回購價格上限，回購股份最高價將由不超過57.96元/股調整爲56.03元/股，因本次預計回購股份數量不低於808.6785萬股(含)且不超過1617.357萬股(含)。按調整後的回購股份最高價不超過56.03元/股計算，用於回購股份的資金總額最高不超過90620.52萬元(含)且不低於45310.26萬元(含)，資金來源爲自有資金。（蘇泊爾公告）","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c2fa12c5911a6e180f5566a86a6f3f","width":"794","height":"527"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614630423","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007097898,"gmtCreate":1642719760497,"gmtModify":1676533738541,"author":{"id":"3564764075723095","authorId":"3564764075723095","name":"Milliamwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ba146db8355a27c50dcb12de7c4cc8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564764075723095","authorIdStr":"3564764075723095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well","listText":"Well","text":"Well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007097898","repostId":"1154863525","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003903189,"gmtCreate":1640835024041,"gmtModify":1676533546522,"author":{"id":"3564764075723095","authorId":"3564764075723095","name":"Milliamwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ba146db8355a27c50dcb12de7c4cc8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564764075723095","authorIdStr":"3564764075723095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003903189","repostId":"1186189945","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186189945","pubTimestamp":1640833036,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186189945?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-30 10:57","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"2022年白酒展望：否极泰来，再迎辉煌？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186189945","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"在A股市场，白酒赛道是很多投资者的心头好。站在当下向前回溯，无论是长期收益还是短期行情，白酒赛道都堪称优秀：看长期收益，2008年末-2021年末的13年间，中证白酒指数年化涨幅高达26%；看短期收益","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在A股市场，白酒赛道是很多投资者的心头好。站在当下向前回溯，无论是长期收益还是短期行情，白酒赛道都堪称优秀：看长期收益，2008年末-2021年末的13年间，中证白酒指数年化涨幅高达26%；看短期收益，自2018年低点至今（20211224），申万白酒指数涨幅达452%。</p><p>但回顾2021年，白酒让很多投资者大失所望，尤其是春节前高点买入的投资者，仍处于亏钱状态。那么，经过了一年的调整，2022年的白酒会更好吗？</p><p><b>2021年板块行情盘点</b></p><p>从年初至12月24日，中证白酒指数累计上涨1.47%，并不理想，跑输了定期存款，也跑输了市场大盘。同期，万得全A指数上涨7.8%，具体来看，中小盘股票表现良好，创业板指上涨11.15%，中证500上涨14.32%；大盘股表现略差，上证指数上涨4.17%，沪深300同期下跌5.56%。</p><p>考虑到不少白酒投资者于去年春节前夕的高点上车，全年的持股体验更差，当前仍处于亏钱状态。</p><p>从个股来看，白酒的全年表现分化很明显。截止2021年12月24日，19家A股白酒上市公司，舍得酒业涨幅最好，高达181%，迎驾贡酒涨幅也达到120%；顺鑫农业表现最差，全年下跌47.3%，几乎腰斩，洋河股份下跌24.9%，表现也不好。就高端白酒赛道中的三家公司来看，茅台上涨10.85%，泸州老窖上涨16.85%，五粮液下跌16.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8905b57e728a5f24e594354fe534616\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>同一个赛道，个股差异很大，因为一旦涉及到个股层面，行业逻辑的影响在短期内会退居次位，股价变动更多地受个股估值、短期业绩、行情催化因素、市场情绪、前景展望等综合影响，失去了可预测性。在这个意义上，对多数投资者而言，如果看好白酒板块，白酒指数基金仍是更好的选择。</p><p><b>中长期视角：中高端白酒前景向好</b></p><p>行业投资应着眼于中长期布局，并基于短期市场波动寻找交易时机。所以，要寻找2022年的布局机会，需要先把握行业中长期的发展前景。</p><p>前几年，随着白酒消费总量的持续缩水，市场中曾有个看衰白酒的逻辑广为流传，即年轻人不喝白酒了，所以白酒产业没有未来。因为时间还不够长，所以还不能说这个逻辑被事实证伪，只不过随着高端白酒市场的回暖，少有人再提而已。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e9222663f41c47082b3b673a5d7db5\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>那么，“年轻人很少喝白酒了，所以白酒产业没有未来”，这个逻辑的问题出在哪里呢？问题在于，年轻人很少喝白酒，并不意味着年轻人变成中年人后不喝白酒。</p><p>从酒精饮料的分类看，啤酒的核心人群是年轻人，代表的是活力和青春；白酒的核心人群是中老年人，对应的是“对酒当歌、人生几何”的情绪释放和“将进酒，杯莫停”的社交应酬。很多时候，不到一定的年龄，体会不到生活的辛辣甜苦，对白酒是没有需求的。</p><p>所以，白酒消费，背后是情感驱动和情绪驱动，并与悠久的文化传统夹杂在一块，早已渗透到每个人的血液之中，到了一定年纪、过了某个时点，这种情感需求自会被激活。因此，年轻人不喝白酒，并非白酒行业的悲歌，年轻人是会变老的。</p><p>此外，受酒精致癌、喝酒伤身等影响，白酒消费总量走下坡路是大势所趋。在此背景下，<b>“少喝酒、喝好酒”成为主导行业前景的中期逻辑，大量低端白酒厂关门倒逼，高端、次高端白酒顺势而起，行业集中度快速提升，龙头酒企强者恒强。</b>事实上，2016年以来，19家上市白酒公司营收总额仍保持着较高的增速，除2020年受疫情因素影响外，其他年份增速均在两位数以上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409af137516de763e8c7ad86b915a801\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>在此背景下，头部酒企的基本面大概率继续稳中向好，而腰部、尾部企业的发展前景不确定增大。拥抱龙头，成为现阶段主流的白酒投资策略。</p><p><b>短期视角：基本面稳定，估值略高</b></p><p>就短期视角来看，要关注两个因素：一是短期业绩，二是估值水平。</p><p>短期业绩波动，取决于供需的结构平衡。供给侧短期变动有限，故需求侧往往成为短期业绩波动的主要牵引力量。就中高端白酒而言，主要消费场景是商务宴请和节日社交，前者取决于经济活动的繁荣度，后者与居民收入水平息息相关。</p><p>2021年前三季度，19家上市白酒企业总营收2309亿元，同比增长19.42%；实现净利润858亿元，同比增长19.5%。应该讲，2021年的基本面表现是不错的，就2022年来看，最大的不确定性因素仍在于新冠疫情能否得到有效控制。结合目前局势来看，只要不出现大的意外，疫情的边际影响会日趋减弱，白酒需求侧继续延续消费升级的趋势，对中高端白酒构成有力支撑。</p><p>从估值水平来看，当前，中证白酒指数的市盈率在48倍左右，全部A股是20倍，沪深300是14.25倍。所以，在A股各个板块中横向对比，白酒板块的估值仍处于相对较高的位置。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53743691d602e80a1ba164645551a270\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>纵向来看，2015年以来，中证白酒指数的市盈率、市净率、市销率的分位值都在90%以上，也就是近6年来的所有交易日中，当前的估值水平处于90%的高位。从指数的涨幅也能看出来。自2008年底以来，中证白酒指数的年化涨幅是26%，而近三年的年化涨幅则高达64%。也说明，最近三年白酒的涨幅高于历史平均水平，按照均值回归原理，未来的涨幅大概率将低于平均水平</p><p>所以，如果结合基本面和估值的因素综合来看，由于基本面的支撑，向下的空间有限，白酒投资依旧安全；但同时由于估值处于历史高位，向上的空间也有限，不必期待太高的收益。</p><p><b>2022年前景展望</b></p><p>多数投资者都认可这样一个共识，即短期市场变动不可预测。其实，不是不可以预测，甚至也不是不能准确预测，而是不能连续做出与事实基本相符的预测。事实上，几乎所有的投资者都在预测市场，也有不少投资者在不少时点准确预测了市场变动，问题在于，没有人能够持续做出准确预测。</p><p>每一种预测对应的都是一个概率，虽然基本面研究越深入，正确预测的概率越高。但概率毕竟只是一种可能性，就不能重复进行的单一事件来说，既便是大概率准确的预测，往往也与现实走势不符。从结果上看，短期市场的预测就无异于掷骰子。</p><p><b>所以，对投资者而言，要想从市场展望和预测中受益，就必须先对预测本身去魅，以避免预测的负面性。预测的价值不在于其结果，更多地在于过程和逻辑。</b>只要逻辑是正确的，在一个较长的时期内，这种逻辑大概率就能自我实现，当然，具体哪个时点实现具有不确定性，这就造成了预测结果的不确定性。正是在这个意义上，预测过程有价值，预测结果却通常不具有可参考性。</p><p>回到白酒赛道，2022年是涨是跌并不重要，因为没人能事前给出确定性结论。对投资者而言，主要关注到三个点就够了：一是高端、次高端白酒中长期前景依旧向好；二是短期基本面来看，需求侧边际好转的概率更大，对行业景气度形成支撑；三是当前板块估值仍处于相对较高的位置。</p><p>关注到这些信息，投资者便可基于自身的投资体系自行做出投资决策，至于结果如何，只有等结果发生后才知道。投资的世界里，从来没有100%的确定。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022年白酒展望：否极泰来，再迎辉煌？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022年白酒展望：否极泰来，再迎辉煌？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-30 10:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTc2MDg0Ng==&mid=2651011137&idx=1&sn=70575bf594b8a7c3d38bf478e7b9549e&chksm=80ad2160b7daa876b2a21f4422675569d1226de6bb2459e82756d19a777b4496922f3a787a86&scene=27#wechat_redirect><strong>苏宁金融研究院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在A股市场，白酒赛道是很多投资者的心头好。站在当下向前回溯，无论是长期收益还是短期行情，白酒赛道都堪称优秀：看长期收益，2008年末-2021年末的13年间，中证白酒指数年化涨幅高达26%；看短期收益，自2018年低点至今（20211224），申万白酒指数涨幅达452%。但回顾2021年，白酒让很多投资者大失所望，尤其是春节前高点买入的投资者，仍处于亏钱状态。那么，经过了一年的调整，2022年的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTc2MDg0Ng==&mid=2651011137&idx=1&sn=70575bf594b8a7c3d38bf478e7b9549e&chksm=80ad2160b7daa876b2a21f4422675569d1226de6bb2459e82756d19a777b4496922f3a787a86&scene=27#wechat_redirect\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028f21b9e1187158e59b0f369bd94af2","relate_stocks":{"600702":"舍得酒业"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTc2MDg0Ng==&mid=2651011137&idx=1&sn=70575bf594b8a7c3d38bf478e7b9549e&chksm=80ad2160b7daa876b2a21f4422675569d1226de6bb2459e82756d19a777b4496922f3a787a86&scene=27#wechat_redirect","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186189945","content_text":"在A股市场，白酒赛道是很多投资者的心头好。站在当下向前回溯，无论是长期收益还是短期行情，白酒赛道都堪称优秀：看长期收益，2008年末-2021年末的13年间，中证白酒指数年化涨幅高达26%；看短期收益，自2018年低点至今（20211224），申万白酒指数涨幅达452%。但回顾2021年，白酒让很多投资者大失所望，尤其是春节前高点买入的投资者，仍处于亏钱状态。那么，经过了一年的调整，2022年的白酒会更好吗？2021年板块行情盘点从年初至12月24日，中证白酒指数累计上涨1.47%，并不理想，跑输了定期存款，也跑输了市场大盘。同期，万得全A指数上涨7.8%，具体来看，中小盘股票表现良好，创业板指上涨11.15%，中证500上涨14.32%；大盘股表现略差，上证指数上涨4.17%，沪深300同期下跌5.56%。考虑到不少白酒投资者于去年春节前夕的高点上车，全年的持股体验更差，当前仍处于亏钱状态。从个股来看，白酒的全年表现分化很明显。截止2021年12月24日，19家A股白酒上市公司，舍得酒业涨幅最好，高达181%，迎驾贡酒涨幅也达到120%；顺鑫农业表现最差，全年下跌47.3%，几乎腰斩，洋河股份下跌24.9%，表现也不好。就高端白酒赛道中的三家公司来看，茅台上涨10.85%，泸州老窖上涨16.85%，五粮液下跌16.3%。同一个赛道，个股差异很大，因为一旦涉及到个股层面，行业逻辑的影响在短期内会退居次位，股价变动更多地受个股估值、短期业绩、行情催化因素、市场情绪、前景展望等综合影响，失去了可预测性。在这个意义上，对多数投资者而言，如果看好白酒板块，白酒指数基金仍是更好的选择。中长期视角：中高端白酒前景向好行业投资应着眼于中长期布局，并基于短期市场波动寻找交易时机。所以，要寻找2022年的布局机会，需要先把握行业中长期的发展前景。前几年，随着白酒消费总量的持续缩水，市场中曾有个看衰白酒的逻辑广为流传，即年轻人不喝白酒了，所以白酒产业没有未来。因为时间还不够长，所以还不能说这个逻辑被事实证伪，只不过随着高端白酒市场的回暖，少有人再提而已。那么，“年轻人很少喝白酒了，所以白酒产业没有未来”，这个逻辑的问题出在哪里呢？问题在于，年轻人很少喝白酒，并不意味着年轻人变成中年人后不喝白酒。从酒精饮料的分类看，啤酒的核心人群是年轻人，代表的是活力和青春；白酒的核心人群是中老年人，对应的是“对酒当歌、人生几何”的情绪释放和“将进酒，杯莫停”的社交应酬。很多时候，不到一定的年龄，体会不到生活的辛辣甜苦，对白酒是没有需求的。所以，白酒消费，背后是情感驱动和情绪驱动，并与悠久的文化传统夹杂在一块，早已渗透到每个人的血液之中，到了一定年纪、过了某个时点，这种情感需求自会被激活。因此，年轻人不喝白酒，并非白酒行业的悲歌，年轻人是会变老的。此外，受酒精致癌、喝酒伤身等影响，白酒消费总量走下坡路是大势所趋。在此背景下，“少喝酒、喝好酒”成为主导行业前景的中期逻辑，大量低端白酒厂关门倒逼，高端、次高端白酒顺势而起，行业集中度快速提升，龙头酒企强者恒强。事实上，2016年以来，19家上市白酒公司营收总额仍保持着较高的增速，除2020年受疫情因素影响外，其他年份增速均在两位数以上。在此背景下，头部酒企的基本面大概率继续稳中向好，而腰部、尾部企业的发展前景不确定增大。拥抱龙头，成为现阶段主流的白酒投资策略。短期视角：基本面稳定，估值略高就短期视角来看，要关注两个因素：一是短期业绩，二是估值水平。短期业绩波动，取决于供需的结构平衡。供给侧短期变动有限，故需求侧往往成为短期业绩波动的主要牵引力量。就中高端白酒而言，主要消费场景是商务宴请和节日社交，前者取决于经济活动的繁荣度，后者与居民收入水平息息相关。2021年前三季度，19家上市白酒企业总营收2309亿元，同比增长19.42%；实现净利润858亿元，同比增长19.5%。应该讲，2021年的基本面表现是不错的，就2022年来看，最大的不确定性因素仍在于新冠疫情能否得到有效控制。结合目前局势来看，只要不出现大的意外，疫情的边际影响会日趋减弱，白酒需求侧继续延续消费升级的趋势，对中高端白酒构成有力支撑。从估值水平来看，当前，中证白酒指数的市盈率在48倍左右，全部A股是20倍，沪深300是14.25倍。所以，在A股各个板块中横向对比，白酒板块的估值仍处于相对较高的位置。纵向来看，2015年以来，中证白酒指数的市盈率、市净率、市销率的分位值都在90%以上，也就是近6年来的所有交易日中，当前的估值水平处于90%的高位。从指数的涨幅也能看出来。自2008年底以来，中证白酒指数的年化涨幅是26%，而近三年的年化涨幅则高达64%。也说明，最近三年白酒的涨幅高于历史平均水平，按照均值回归原理，未来的涨幅大概率将低于平均水平所以，如果结合基本面和估值的因素综合来看，由于基本面的支撑，向下的空间有限，白酒投资依旧安全；但同时由于估值处于历史高位，向上的空间也有限，不必期待太高的收益。2022年前景展望多数投资者都认可这样一个共识，即短期市场变动不可预测。其实，不是不可以预测，甚至也不是不能准确预测，而是不能连续做出与事实基本相符的预测。事实上，几乎所有的投资者都在预测市场，也有不少投资者在不少时点准确预测了市场变动，问题在于，没有人能够持续做出准确预测。每一种预测对应的都是一个概率，虽然基本面研究越深入，正确预测的概率越高。但概率毕竟只是一种可能性，就不能重复进行的单一事件来说，既便是大概率准确的预测，往往也与现实走势不符。从结果上看，短期市场的预测就无异于掷骰子。所以，对投资者而言，要想从市场展望和预测中受益，就必须先对预测本身去魅，以避免预测的负面性。预测的价值不在于其结果，更多地在于过程和逻辑。只要逻辑是正确的，在一个较长的时期内，这种逻辑大概率就能自我实现，当然，具体哪个时点实现具有不确定性，这就造成了预测结果的不确定性。正是在这个意义上，预测过程有价值，预测结果却通常不具有可参考性。回到白酒赛道，2022年是涨是跌并不重要，因为没人能事前给出确定性结论。对投资者而言，主要关注到三个点就够了：一是高端、次高端白酒中长期前景依旧向好；二是短期基本面来看，需求侧边际好转的概率更大，对行业景气度形成支撑；三是当前板块估值仍处于相对较高的位置。关注到这些信息，投资者便可基于自身的投资体系自行做出投资决策，至于结果如何，只有等结果发生后才知道。投资的世界里，从来没有100%的确定。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9003903189,"gmtCreate":1640835024041,"gmtModify":1676533546522,"author":{"id":"3564764075723095","authorId":"3564764075723095","name":"Milliamwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ba146db8355a27c50dcb12de7c4cc8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564764075723095","authorIdStr":"3564764075723095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003903189","repostId":"1186189945","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961097716,"gmtCreate":1668781323036,"gmtModify":1676538112976,"author":{"id":"3564764075723095","authorId":"3564764075723095","name":"Milliamwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ba146db8355a27c50dcb12de7c4cc8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564764075723095","authorIdStr":"3564764075723095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20221125 155.0 PUT\">$TSLA 202</a>2","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20221125 155.0 PUT\">$TSLA 202</a>2","text":"$TSLA 2022","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bfd0b8f4fa8f676ae2b172fff3c261d6","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961097716","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904914821,"gmtCreate":1659973343366,"gmtModify":1703476535437,"author":{"id":"3564764075723095","authorId":"3564764075723095","name":"Milliamwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ba146db8355a27c50dcb12de7c4cc8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564764075723095","authorIdStr":"3564764075723095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a>buy and hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a>buy and hold","text":"$美国超微公司(AMD)$buy and hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904914821","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022501550,"gmtCreate":1653539157370,"gmtModify":1676535301226,"author":{"id":"3564764075723095","authorId":"3564764075723095","name":"Milliamwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ba146db8355a27c50dcb12de7c4cc8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564764075723095","authorIdStr":"3564764075723095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Laters","listText":"Laters","text":"Laters","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022501550","repostId":"614630423","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614630423,"gmtCreate":1653537963465,"gmtModify":1676533150805,"author":{"id":"3472778809742911","authorId":"3472778809742911","name":"首席消费官","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20ea29a21d2a4d13a41a9a44d28e8cc5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472778809742911","authorIdStr":"3472778809742911"},"themes":[],"title":"蘇泊爾：回購股份最高價調整爲56.03元/股","htmlText":"5月26日，蘇泊爾(002032.SZ)發佈公告稱，自2022年5月26日起調整回購方案中回購價格上限，回購股份最高價將由不超過57.96元/股調整爲56.03元/股，因本次預計回購股份數量不低於808.6785萬股(含)且不超過1617.357萬股(含)。按調整後的回購股份最高價不超過56.03元/股計算，用於回購股份的資金總額最高不超過90620.52萬元(含)且不低於45310.26萬元(含)，資金來源爲自有資金。（蘇泊爾公告）","listText":"5月26日，蘇泊爾(002032.SZ)發佈公告稱，自2022年5月26日起調整回購方案中回購價格上限，回購股份最高價將由不超過57.96元/股調整爲56.03元/股，因本次預計回購股份數量不低於808.6785萬股(含)且不超過1617.357萬股(含)。按調整後的回購股份最高價不超過56.03元/股計算，用於回購股份的資金總額最高不超過90620.52萬元(含)且不低於45310.26萬元(含)，資金來源爲自有資金。（蘇泊爾公告）","text":"5月26日，蘇泊爾(002032.SZ)發佈公告稱，自2022年5月26日起調整回購方案中回購價格上限，回購股份最高價將由不超過57.96元/股調整爲56.03元/股，因本次預計回購股份數量不低於808.6785萬股(含)且不超過1617.357萬股(含)。按調整後的回購股份最高價不超過56.03元/股計算，用於回購股份的資金總額最高不超過90620.52萬元(含)且不低於45310.26萬元(含)，資金來源爲自有資金。（蘇泊爾公告）","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c2fa12c5911a6e180f5566a86a6f3f","width":"794","height":"527"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614630423","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007097898,"gmtCreate":1642719760497,"gmtModify":1676533738541,"author":{"id":"3564764075723095","authorId":"3564764075723095","name":"Milliamwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ba146db8355a27c50dcb12de7c4cc8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564764075723095","authorIdStr":"3564764075723095"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well","listText":"Well","text":"Well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007097898","repostId":"1154863525","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154863525","pubTimestamp":1642691996,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154863525?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-20 23:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Meta拟进军400亿美元的NFT市场，允许用户创建和推广NFT","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154863525","media":"新浪科技","summary":"目前，Meta的这些努力还处于早期阶段，将来可能生变。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>北京时间1月20日晚间消息，据报道，知情人士今日称，面对数字收藏热潮，Facebook母公司Meta正在制定计划，拟允许客户创建和推广NFT（非同质化代币）。</p><p>据悉，Facebook和Instagram团队正在开发一项特征，可以让客户在他们的社交媒体个人资料上展示其NFT。此外，这些团队还在开发一个原型，旨在帮助客户创建可收藏的代币。</p><p>两位知情人士称，Meta还计划推出一个市场，供客户购买和推广NFT，即一种“代表无法复制的艺术品或图像的”数字资产。</p><p>目前，Meta的这些努力还处于早期阶段，将来可能生变。但是，这些计划意味着，Meta首次试图从NFT世界中获利，如今该市场的规模已达到约400亿美值。</p><p>最初，NFT市场几乎是由炒作或赌注所推动。批评人士将其称为“随心所欲”的行业，是一个充满欺诈和市场操纵的投机泡沫。</p><p>本月早些时候，球最大的NFT交易平台OpenSea融资3亿美元，估值达到了130亿美元。就在6个月前，该公司刚刚融资1亿美元，估值仅15亿美元。</p><p>美国主要的数字加密货币交易平台Coinbase正在准备推出一个NFT市场，向OpenSea发起挑战。此外，Meta竞争对手Twitter正在测试NFT展示功能，而Reddit也推出了自己的NFT平台。</p><p>在此之前，Meta CEO马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）曾表示，有一天NFT可能被用于“元宇宙”中。分析人士称，Meta的计划甚至可以帮助艺术家将他们的数字艺术品货币化。</p><p>Instagram负责人亚当·莫塞里（Adam Mosseri）去年12月曾表示，该公司正在“积极探索NFT”，但没有透露具体细节。知情人士今日称，Instagram现在正在内部测试其NFT展示的特征。</p><p>知情人士还称，Instagram的NFT计划最初是由Instagram产品和创作者总监克里斯汀·乔治（Kristin George），和去年12月离职的Facebook数字加密货币部门前负责人大卫·马库斯（David Marcus）提出的。</p><p>知情人士称，Facebook的数字钱包Novi在去年10月份作为试点推出，对这些计划可能是至关重要的。</p><p>对此，Meta拒绝发表评论。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1635144614083","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta拟进军400亿美元的NFT市场，允许用户创建和推广NFT</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta拟进军400亿美元的NFT市场，允许用户创建和推广NFT\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-20 23:19 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2022-01-20/doc-ikyamrmz6453934.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间1月20日晚间消息，据报道，知情人士今日称，面对数字收藏热潮，Facebook母公司Meta正在制定计划，拟允许客户创建和推广NFT（非同质化代币）。据悉，Facebook和Instagram团队正在开发一项特征，可以让客户在他们的社交媒体个人资料上展示其NFT。此外，这些团队还在开发一个原型，旨在帮助客户创建可收藏的代币。两位知情人士称，Meta还计划推出一个市场，供客户购买和推广NFT...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2022-01-20/doc-ikyamrmz6453934.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/849562fd979ebd0487ef6331598e60ad","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2022-01-20/doc-ikyamrmz6453934.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154863525","content_text":"北京时间1月20日晚间消息，据报道，知情人士今日称，面对数字收藏热潮，Facebook母公司Meta正在制定计划，拟允许客户创建和推广NFT（非同质化代币）。据悉，Facebook和Instagram团队正在开发一项特征，可以让客户在他们的社交媒体个人资料上展示其NFT。此外，这些团队还在开发一个原型，旨在帮助客户创建可收藏的代币。两位知情人士称，Meta还计划推出一个市场，供客户购买和推广NFT，即一种“代表无法复制的艺术品或图像的”数字资产。目前，Meta的这些努力还处于早期阶段，将来可能生变。但是，这些计划意味着，Meta首次试图从NFT世界中获利，如今该市场的规模已达到约400亿美值。最初，NFT市场几乎是由炒作或赌注所推动。批评人士将其称为“随心所欲”的行业，是一个充满欺诈和市场操纵的投机泡沫。本月早些时候，球最大的NFT交易平台OpenSea融资3亿美元，估值达到了130亿美元。就在6个月前，该公司刚刚融资1亿美元，估值仅15亿美元。美国主要的数字加密货币交易平台Coinbase正在准备推出一个NFT市场，向OpenSea发起挑战。此外，Meta竞争对手Twitter正在测试NFT展示功能，而Reddit也推出了自己的NFT平台。在此之前，Meta CEO马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）曾表示，有一天NFT可能被用于“元宇宙”中。分析人士称，Meta的计划甚至可以帮助艺术家将他们的数字艺术品货币化。Instagram负责人亚当·莫塞里（Adam Mosseri）去年12月曾表示，该公司正在“积极探索NFT”，但没有透露具体细节。知情人士今日称，Instagram现在正在内部测试其NFT展示的特征。知情人士还称，Instagram的NFT计划最初是由Instagram产品和创作者总监克里斯汀·乔治（Kristin George），和去年12月离职的Facebook数字加密货币部门前负责人大卫·马库斯（David Marcus）提出的。知情人士称，Facebook的数字钱包Novi在去年10月份作为试点推出，对这些计划可能是至关重要的。对此，Meta拒绝发表评论。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}