ChiHong personal page - To The Moon

ChiHong

ChiHong

I am a swing trader

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2023-11-27

$CATHAY PAC AIR(00293)$ buy buy buy.

2023-04-26

$GEELY AUTO(00175)$ False break down in end of Oct 2022. Now forming higher low in weekly chart

2022-01-11

$Intel(INTC)$ potential x 2. Watch out💵

2021-05-28

$JIUTIAN CHEMICAL GROUP LIMITED(C8R.SI)$ undergo weak selling and look for breakout

2021-05-06

Can u spot there is insider buying in this chart?$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$

2021-05-04

$U.S. Steel(X)$gogogo

2021-05-04

Buy

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-13

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ cant touch it. ?

2021-04-08

$Zuora(ZUO)$ going to be 2x

2021-03-26

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ i did the opposite is easier ?

@JiaJun:$NIO Inc.(NIO)$not steady

2021-03-16

Turn

"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point"

2021-01-29

$CleanSpark, Inc.(CLSK)$ going stronger

2021-01-06

$Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$hold for long term. Entry 18.5

2020-12-24

Alibaba in danger

@毕肯证券学院:被反壟斷立案的阿里巴巴，大級別調整來到了嗎？

2020-11-28

wow it is $75 now!!!

@ChiHong:$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.

2020-11-27

$Pershing Square Tontine Holdings(PSTH)$ There are rumours that PSTH will be merging with Stripe.Cut loss : $20Asymmetrical risk and reward in my opinion.

2020-11-17

$Maxar Technologies Ltd.(MAXR)$Going to space is my dream!!A good and debt free company to turnaround in next 6 months. Watch out ?

2020-11-13

$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.

2020-11-12

Finally it took off!!!

@ChiHong:$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23

2020-11-09

$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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data-views=\"1\"></v-v> False break down in end of Oct 2022. Now forming higher low in weekly chart","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00175\">$GEELY AUTO(00175)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> False break down in end of Oct 2022. Now forming higher low in weekly chart","text":"$GEELY AUTO(00175)$ False break down in end of Oct 2022. Now forming higher low in weekly chart","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947928142","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006765527,"gmtCreate":1641855247102,"gmtModify":1676533653604,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a>&nbsp;potential x 2. Watch out💵","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a>&nbsp;potential x 2. Watch out💵","text":"$Intel(INTC)$ potential x 2. 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAZR\">$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$</a>","listText":"Can u spot there is insider buying in this chart?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAZR\">$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$</a>","text":"Can u spot there is insider buying in this chart?$Luminar Technologies, 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steady","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b32c6bbee1aee0528d7745eb42cf145","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356190855","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325630671,"gmtCreate":1615892504293,"gmtModify":1704788027064,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Turn","listText":"Turn","text":"Turn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325630671","repostId":"1127134490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127134490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615889741,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127134490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-16 18:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127134490","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower  and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotatio","content":"<p>Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&amp;P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4617081a74b98cbab2c1287942cb9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"357\">Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"<b>we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"</b>adding that \"<b>the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.</b>In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"</p>\n<p>AsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.<b>In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.</b></p>\n<p>“The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “<b>Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"</b></p>\n<p>That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.<b>Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value</b>.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,</b>” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.\n <b>“If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>A rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -<b>have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c176f70232a97f988ba92c84c6836d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"201\">However, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically<b>5-year rates.</b></p>\n<p>Yields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that the<b>Fed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.</b>That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4be02c3e2224fb5edfb0e0ed77bcac\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\"><b>\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"</b>said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.</p>\n<p>And while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,<b>the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.</b>Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148711c8ea3822a0af209f086802c068\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"263\">On the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,<b>the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,</b>said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.</p>\n<p>That said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.</p>\n<p>None of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.</p>\n<p>And with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.</p>\n<p>Taking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.<b>In swaptions,</b><b><u>a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis</u></b><b>.</b></p>\n<p>There is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.</p>\n<p>For Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.</p>\n<p>“All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.<b>“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"</b></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,<b>found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.</b></p>\n<p>In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario where<b>the Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.</b>If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1270022eb5742b2cf2a7c328a5d897\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"380\">Also keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>Finally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&amp;P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.</p>\n<p>So going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.</p>\n<p>“New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.<b>“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”</b></p>\n<p>If all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).\n <b>As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>In short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chair<i><b>doesn't</b></i>do anything, and damned if he&nbsp;<u><b>does</b></u>...</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-16 18:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127134490","content_text":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.\nPicking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"\nAsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.\n“The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"\nThat’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value.\n\n“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.\n “If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”\n\nA rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.\nHowever, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically5-year rates.\nYields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that theFed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.\n\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.\nAnd while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.\nOn the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.\nThat said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.\nNone of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.\nAnd with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.\nTaking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.\nFurthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.In swaptions,a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis.\nThere is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.\nFor Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.\n“All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"\nMeanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.\nIn his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario wherethe Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.\nAlso keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&P 500.\nFinally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.\nSo going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.\n“New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”\nIf all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:\n\n \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).\n As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"\n\nIn short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chairdoesn'tdo anything, and damned if he does...","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318247161,"gmtCreate":1611858699053,"gmtModify":1704865003685,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLSK\">$CleanSpark, Inc.(CLSK)$</a>&nbsp;going stronger","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLSK\">$CleanSpark, Inc.(CLSK)$</a>&nbsp;going stronger","text":"$CleanSpark, Inc.(CLSK)$ going stronger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/318247161","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":338877409,"gmtCreate":1609888434701,"gmtModify":1704980621618,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>hold for long term. Entry 18.5","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>hold for long term. Entry 18.5","text":"$Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$hold for long term. Entry 18.5","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/338877409","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3531425677263308","authorId":"3531425677263308","name":"韭菜炒虾皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ebaf0e66e0f6e855a5303ac0e001b5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3531425677263308","authorIdStr":"3531425677263308"},"content":"BBB is a cost-effective retail store for kitchen, home, decoration, storage and finishing products. In 2021, the market is still good.","text":"BBB is a cost-effective retail store for kitchen, home, decoration, storage and finishing products. In 2021, the market is still good.","html":"BBB is a cost-effective retail store for kitchen, home, decoration, storage and finishing products. In 2021, the market is still good."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339107173,"gmtCreate":1608783163192,"gmtModify":1704976477191,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba in danger","listText":"Alibaba in danger","text":"Alibaba in danger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/339107173","repostId":"339358872","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":339358872,"gmtCreate":1608776073496,"gmtModify":1704976430565,"author":{"id":"3568953285250743","authorId":"3568953285250743","name":"毕肯证券学院","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e5d5a312be5a119aed23e589ea95e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568953285250743","authorIdStr":"3568953285250743"},"themes":[],"title":"被反壟斷立案的阿里巴巴 ， 大級別調整來到了嗎？","htmlText":"來源：畢肯證券學院&nbsp;&nbsp;文：小慧 北京—阿里巴巴股價週三在美國股市收盤後下跌，有報道稱中國政府正在對該科技巨頭進行反壟斷調查。 該消息是緊隨**通過監管行動來控制其最大的科技公司而增加的，這在很大程度上是出乎意料的。 1、阿里巴巴被中國國家市場監督管理總局立案調查 新華社週四表示，中國國家市場監督管理總局已就阿里巴巴的壟斷行爲展開調查。該報告指出的主要問題是一種迫使商家選擇兩個平臺之一而不是能夠同時使用兩者的做法。 盤後交易中，在紐約交易的阿里巴巴股價下跌超過3％。 另外，阿里巴巴的附屬螞蟻宣佈週四收到了監管機構的會議通知。上個月，監管機構突然暫停了這家金融科技巨頭的大規模首次公開募股，就在計劃在香港和上海上市的幾天前。 2、阿里內部高管不平靜 除了企業外部的是是非非之外，阿里內部也並不平靜。近日，脈脈有人爆料稱，淘寶天貓總裁蔣凡已卸任所有管理工作，信息的真假暫且不得而知，但從阿里近期的組織變化，的確可以窺視些許端倪 一個月前，淘系電商公佈新一輪組織調整，在這次調整中，原先由蔣凡直接管理的阿里媽媽，被劃歸給劉博（家洛）；天貓商家和行業的運營工作被分給楊光（吹雪）；產品與技術則由湯興（平疇）負責。自此，淘系的三位大將基本明確。 可以很明顯地看出，蔣凡所管轄的業務範圍，被分散成了更小的管理單元。 甚至，在宣佈調整之前，原阿里巴巴副總裁，天貓快速消費品和服飾風尚事業部負責人胡偉雄（古邁）已確認被警方帶走 3、市場上電商企業競爭對手強勁 1）2020年1月以來，阿里巴巴股價上漲幅度超20%，再加上此前幾年積累的漲幅，看起來仍有一線科技股的風采。但如果與市場上其他電商企業對比來看，就會發現事情並不簡單。 2）全球市值最高的電商企業&nbsp;$亞馬遜(AMZN.US)$&nbsp;同一時期股價累計漲幅73.53%，市值總規模來到了1.6萬億美元以上，貝佐斯坐穩了世界","listText":"來源：畢肯證券學院&nbsp;&nbsp;文：小慧 北京—阿里巴巴股價週三在美國股市收盤後下跌，有報道稱中國政府正在對該科技巨頭進行反壟斷調查。 該消息是緊隨**通過監管行動來控制其最大的科技公司而增加的，這在很大程度上是出乎意料的。 1、阿里巴巴被中國國家市場監督管理總局立案調查 新華社週四表示，中國國家市場監督管理總局已就阿里巴巴的壟斷行爲展開調查。該報告指出的主要問題是一種迫使商家選擇兩個平臺之一而不是能夠同時使用兩者的做法。 盤後交易中，在紐約交易的阿里巴巴股價下跌超過3％。 另外，阿里巴巴的附屬螞蟻宣佈週四收到了監管機構的會議通知。上個月，監管機構突然暫停了這家金融科技巨頭的大規模首次公開募股，就在計劃在香港和上海上市的幾天前。 2、阿里內部高管不平靜 除了企業外部的是是非非之外，阿里內部也並不平靜。近日，脈脈有人爆料稱，淘寶天貓總裁蔣凡已卸任所有管理工作，信息的真假暫且不得而知，但從阿里近期的組織變化，的確可以窺視些許端倪 一個月前，淘系電商公佈新一輪組織調整，在這次調整中，原先由蔣凡直接管理的阿里媽媽，被劃歸給劉博（家洛）；天貓商家和行業的運營工作被分給楊光（吹雪）；產品與技術則由湯興（平疇）負責。自此，淘系的三位大將基本明確。 可以很明顯地看出，蔣凡所管轄的業務範圍，被分散成了更小的管理單元。 甚至，在宣佈調整之前，原阿里巴巴副總裁，天貓快速消費品和服飾風尚事業部負責人胡偉雄（古邁）已確認被警方帶走 3、市場上電商企業競爭對手強勁 1）2020年1月以來，阿里巴巴股價上漲幅度超20%，再加上此前幾年積累的漲幅，看起來仍有一線科技股的風采。但如果與市場上其他電商企業對比來看，就會發現事情並不簡單。 2）全球市值最高的電商企業&nbsp;$亞馬遜(AMZN.US)$&nbsp;同一時期股價累計漲幅73.53%，市值總規模來到了1.6萬億美元以上，貝佐斯坐穩了世界","text":"來源：畢肯證券學院 文：小慧 北京—阿里巴巴股價週三在美國股市收盤後下跌，有報道稱中國政府正在對該科技巨頭進行反壟斷調查。 該消息是緊隨**通過監管行動來控制其最大的科技公司而增加的，這在很大程度上是出乎意料的。 1、阿里巴巴被中國國家市場監督管理總局立案調查 新華社週四表示，中國國家市場監督管理總局已就阿里巴巴的壟斷行爲展開調查。該報告指出的主要問題是一種迫使商家選擇兩個平臺之一而不是能夠同時使用兩者的做法。 盤後交易中，在紐約交易的阿里巴巴股價下跌超過3％。 另外，阿里巴巴的附屬螞蟻宣佈週四收到了監管機構的會議通知。上個月，監管機構突然暫停了這家金融科技巨頭的大規模首次公開募股，就在計劃在香港和上海上市的幾天前。 2、阿里內部高管不平靜 除了企業外部的是是非非之外，阿里內部也並不平靜。近日，脈脈有人爆料稱，淘寶天貓總裁蔣凡已卸任所有管理工作，信息的真假暫且不得而知，但從阿里近期的組織變化，的確可以窺視些許端倪 一個月前，淘系電商公佈新一輪組織調整，在這次調整中，原先由蔣凡直接管理的阿里媽媽，被劃歸給劉博（家洛）；天貓商家和行業的運營工作被分給楊光（吹雪）；產品與技術則由湯興（平疇）負責。自此，淘系的三位大將基本明確。 可以很明顯地看出，蔣凡所管轄的業務範圍，被分散成了更小的管理單元。 甚至，在宣佈調整之前，原阿里巴巴副總裁，天貓快速消費品和服飾風尚事業部負責人胡偉雄（古邁）已確認被警方帶走 3、市場上電商企業競爭對手強勁 1）2020年1月以來，阿里巴巴股價上漲幅度超20%，再加上此前幾年積累的漲幅，看起來仍有一線科技股的風采。但如果與市場上其他電商企業對比來看，就會發現事情並不簡單。 2）全球市值最高的電商企業 $亞馬遜(AMZN.US)$ 同一時期股價累計漲幅73.53%，市值總規模來到了1.6萬億美元以上，貝佐斯坐穩了世界","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d2635ff739667d613252b9271ed76fe","width":"1201","height":"649"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ff75a6cd1ab0603becb1bac507d348","width":"1508","height":"707"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef132a8f75bde8391dc34cf1e96cf985","width":"1198","height":"668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/339358872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391145526,"gmtCreate":1606525121665,"gmtModify":1704966060565,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow it is $75 now!!!&nbsp;","listText":"wow it is $75 now!!!&nbsp;","text":"wow it is $75 now!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391145526","repostId":"304423793","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":304423793,"gmtCreate":1605281041112,"gmtModify":1704960078633,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>&nbsp;is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>&nbsp;is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.&nbsp;","text":"$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bdb34f3e1a15a5bd428ac24ea22d4a","width":"1080","height":"1880"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/304423793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391303538,"gmtCreate":1606480432424,"gmtModify":1704965820403,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">$Pershing Square Tontine Holdings(PSTH)$</a>&nbsp;There are rumours that PSTH will be merging with Stripe.Cut loss : $20Asymmetrical risk and reward in my opinion.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">$Pershing Square Tontine Holdings(PSTH)$</a>&nbsp;There are rumours that PSTH will be merging with Stripe.Cut loss : $20Asymmetrical risk and reward in my opinion.&nbsp;","text":"$Pershing Square Tontine Holdings(PSTH)$ There are rumours that PSTH will be merging with Stripe.Cut loss : $20Asymmetrical risk and reward in my opinion.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be7c29a750d483c9a231154941b9044e","width":"1080","height":"1964"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391303538","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":307702358,"gmtCreate":1605628134974,"gmtModify":1704961451683,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAXR\">$Maxar Technologies Ltd.(MAXR)$</a>Going to space is my dream!!A good and debt free company to turnaround in next 6 months. Watch out ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAXR\">$Maxar Technologies Ltd.(MAXR)$</a>Going to space is my dream!!A good and debt free company to turnaround in next 6 months. Watch out ?","text":"$Maxar Technologies Ltd.(MAXR)$Going to space is my dream!!A good and debt free company to turnaround in next 6 months. Watch out ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed388912475483efb69f4b085878d8ad","width":"1080","height":"2587"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/307702358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":304423793,"gmtCreate":1605281041112,"gmtModify":1704960078633,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>&nbsp;is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>&nbsp;is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.&nbsp;","text":"$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bdb34f3e1a15a5bd428ac24ea22d4a","width":"1080","height":"1880"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/304423793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":304805465,"gmtCreate":1605189871057,"gmtModify":1704959491517,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally it took off!!!&nbsp;","listText":"Finally it took off!!!&nbsp;","text":"Finally it took off!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/304805465","repostId":"305102548","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":305102548,"gmtCreate":1604923084284,"gmtModify":1704958048749,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CELH\">$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$</a>&nbsp;high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CELH\">$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$</a>&nbsp;high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","text":"$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/305102548","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":305102548,"gmtCreate":1604923084284,"gmtModify":1704958048749,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CELH\">$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$</a>&nbsp;high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CELH\">$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$</a>&nbsp;high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","text":"$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/305102548","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":105000947,"gmtCreate":1620257436889,"gmtModify":1704340785648,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can u spot there is insider buying in this chart?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAZR\">$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$</a>","listText":"Can u spot there is insider buying in this chart?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAZR\">$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$</a>","text":"Can u spot there is insider buying in this chart?$Luminar Technologies, Inc.(LAZR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532084866bcca7aac75783623cb8b2da","width":"1080","height":"2042"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/105000947","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":304423793,"gmtCreate":1605281041112,"gmtModify":1704960078633,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>&nbsp;is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>&nbsp;is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.&nbsp;","text":"$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bdb34f3e1a15a5bd428ac24ea22d4a","width":"1080","height":"1880"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/304423793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":305102548,"gmtCreate":1604923084284,"gmtModify":1704958048749,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CELH\">$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$</a>&nbsp;high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CELH\">$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$</a>&nbsp;high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","text":"$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/305102548","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356680418,"gmtCreate":1616772029434,"gmtModify":1704798825014,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;i did the opposite is easier ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;i did the opposite is easier ?","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ i did the opposite is easier ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356680418","repostId":"356190855","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":356190855,"gmtCreate":1616762031377,"gmtModify":1704798512548,"author":{"id":"3566003178580137","authorId":"3566003178580137","name":"JiaJun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566003178580137","authorIdStr":"3566003178580137"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>not steady","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>not steady","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$not steady","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b32c6bbee1aee0528d7745eb42cf145","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356190855","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":338877409,"gmtCreate":1609888434701,"gmtModify":1704980621618,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>hold for long term. Entry 18.5","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>hold for long term. Entry 18.5","text":"$Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$hold for long term. Entry 18.5","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/338877409","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3531425677263308","authorId":"3531425677263308","name":"韭菜炒虾皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ebaf0e66e0f6e855a5303ac0e001b5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3531425677263308","authorIdStr":"3531425677263308"},"content":"BBB is a cost-effective retail store for kitchen, home, decoration, storage and finishing products. In 2021, the market is still good.","text":"BBB is a cost-effective retail store for kitchen, home, decoration, storage and finishing products. In 2021, the market is still good.","html":"BBB is a cost-effective retail store for kitchen, home, decoration, storage and finishing products. In 2021, the market is still good."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":308170622,"gmtCreate":1603898584666,"gmtModify":1704954287137,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPWK\">$Upwork Inc.(UPWK)$</a>&nbsp;good chance to buy. Took a small position tonight ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPWK\">$Upwork Inc.(UPWK)$</a>&nbsp;good chance to buy. Took a small position tonight ?","text":"$Upwork Inc.(UPWK)$ good chance to buy. Took a small position tonight ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/308170622","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when your initial post [Bixin] [Bixin] comes, I hope you can have a good time and earn a good time in Tiger Community! If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when your initial post [Bixin] [Bixin] comes, I hope you can have a good time and earn a good time in Tiger Community! If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when your initial post [Bixin] [Bixin] comes, I hope you can have a good time and earn a good time in Tiger Community! If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345541897,"gmtCreate":1618325549119,"gmtModify":1704709245925,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;cant touch it. ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;cant touch it. ?","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ cant touch it. ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e92a1ff15959cd3cdfd65670693eca","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345541897","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318247161,"gmtCreate":1611858699053,"gmtModify":1704865003685,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLSK\">$CleanSpark, Inc.(CLSK)$</a>&nbsp;going stronger","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLSK\">$CleanSpark, Inc.(CLSK)$</a>&nbsp;going stronger","text":"$CleanSpark, Inc.(CLSK)$ going stronger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/318247161","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339107173,"gmtCreate":1608783163192,"gmtModify":1704976477191,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba in danger","listText":"Alibaba in danger","text":"Alibaba in danger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/339107173","repostId":"339358872","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":339358872,"gmtCreate":1608776073496,"gmtModify":1704976430565,"author":{"id":"3568953285250743","authorId":"3568953285250743","name":"毕肯证券学院","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e5d5a312be5a119aed23e589ea95e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568953285250743","authorIdStr":"3568953285250743"},"themes":[],"title":"被反壟斷立案的阿里巴巴 ， 大級別調整來到了嗎？","htmlText":"來源：畢肯證券學院&nbsp;&nbsp;文：小慧 北京—阿里巴巴股價週三在美國股市收盤後下跌，有報道稱中國政府正在對該科技巨頭進行反壟斷調查。 該消息是緊隨**通過監管行動來控制其最大的科技公司而增加的，這在很大程度上是出乎意料的。 1、阿里巴巴被中國國家市場監督管理總局立案調查 新華社週四表示，中國國家市場監督管理總局已就阿里巴巴的壟斷行爲展開調查。該報告指出的主要問題是一種迫使商家選擇兩個平臺之一而不是能夠同時使用兩者的做法。 盤後交易中，在紐約交易的阿里巴巴股價下跌超過3％。 另外，阿里巴巴的附屬螞蟻宣佈週四收到了監管機構的會議通知。上個月，監管機構突然暫停了這家金融科技巨頭的大規模首次公開募股，就在計劃在香港和上海上市的幾天前。 2、阿里內部高管不平靜 除了企業外部的是是非非之外，阿里內部也並不平靜。近日，脈脈有人爆料稱，淘寶天貓總裁蔣凡已卸任所有管理工作，信息的真假暫且不得而知，但從阿里近期的組織變化，的確可以窺視些許端倪 一個月前，淘系電商公佈新一輪組織調整，在這次調整中，原先由蔣凡直接管理的阿里媽媽，被劃歸給劉博（家洛）；天貓商家和行業的運營工作被分給楊光（吹雪）；產品與技術則由湯興（平疇）負責。自此，淘系的三位大將基本明確。 可以很明顯地看出，蔣凡所管轄的業務範圍，被分散成了更小的管理單元。 甚至，在宣佈調整之前，原阿里巴巴副總裁，天貓快速消費品和服飾風尚事業部負責人胡偉雄（古邁）已確認被警方帶走 3、市場上電商企業競爭對手強勁 1）2020年1月以來，阿里巴巴股價上漲幅度超20%，再加上此前幾年積累的漲幅，看起來仍有一線科技股的風采。但如果與市場上其他電商企業對比來看，就會發現事情並不簡單。 2）全球市值最高的電商企業&nbsp;$亞馬遜(AMZN.US)$&nbsp;同一時期股價累計漲幅73.53%，市值總規模來到了1.6萬億美元以上，貝佐斯坐穩了世界","listText":"來源：畢肯證券學院&nbsp;&nbsp;文：小慧 北京—阿里巴巴股價週三在美國股市收盤後下跌，有報道稱中國政府正在對該科技巨頭進行反壟斷調查。 該消息是緊隨**通過監管行動來控制其最大的科技公司而增加的，這在很大程度上是出乎意料的。 1、阿里巴巴被中國國家市場監督管理總局立案調查 新華社週四表示，中國國家市場監督管理總局已就阿里巴巴的壟斷行爲展開調查。該報告指出的主要問題是一種迫使商家選擇兩個平臺之一而不是能夠同時使用兩者的做法。 盤後交易中，在紐約交易的阿里巴巴股價下跌超過3％。 另外，阿里巴巴的附屬螞蟻宣佈週四收到了監管機構的會議通知。上個月，監管機構突然暫停了這家金融科技巨頭的大規模首次公開募股，就在計劃在香港和上海上市的幾天前。 2、阿里內部高管不平靜 除了企業外部的是是非非之外，阿里內部也並不平靜。近日，脈脈有人爆料稱，淘寶天貓總裁蔣凡已卸任所有管理工作，信息的真假暫且不得而知，但從阿里近期的組織變化，的確可以窺視些許端倪 一個月前，淘系電商公佈新一輪組織調整，在這次調整中，原先由蔣凡直接管理的阿里媽媽，被劃歸給劉博（家洛）；天貓商家和行業的運營工作被分給楊光（吹雪）；產品與技術則由湯興（平疇）負責。自此，淘系的三位大將基本明確。 可以很明顯地看出，蔣凡所管轄的業務範圍，被分散成了更小的管理單元。 甚至，在宣佈調整之前，原阿里巴巴副總裁，天貓快速消費品和服飾風尚事業部負責人胡偉雄（古邁）已確認被警方帶走 3、市場上電商企業競爭對手強勁 1）2020年1月以來，阿里巴巴股價上漲幅度超20%，再加上此前幾年積累的漲幅，看起來仍有一線科技股的風采。但如果與市場上其他電商企業對比來看，就會發現事情並不簡單。 2）全球市值最高的電商企業&nbsp;$亞馬遜(AMZN.US)$&nbsp;同一時期股價累計漲幅73.53%，市值總規模來到了1.6萬億美元以上，貝佐斯坐穩了世界","text":"來源：畢肯證券學院 文：小慧 北京—阿里巴巴股價週三在美國股市收盤後下跌，有報道稱中國政府正在對該科技巨頭進行反壟斷調查。 該消息是緊隨**通過監管行動來控制其最大的科技公司而增加的，這在很大程度上是出乎意料的。 1、阿里巴巴被中國國家市場監督管理總局立案調查 新華社週四表示，中國國家市場監督管理總局已就阿里巴巴的壟斷行爲展開調查。該報告指出的主要問題是一種迫使商家選擇兩個平臺之一而不是能夠同時使用兩者的做法。 盤後交易中，在紐約交易的阿里巴巴股價下跌超過3％。 另外，阿里巴巴的附屬螞蟻宣佈週四收到了監管機構的會議通知。上個月，監管機構突然暫停了這家金融科技巨頭的大規模首次公開募股，就在計劃在香港和上海上市的幾天前。 2、阿里內部高管不平靜 除了企業外部的是是非非之外，阿里內部也並不平靜。近日，脈脈有人爆料稱，淘寶天貓總裁蔣凡已卸任所有管理工作，信息的真假暫且不得而知，但從阿里近期的組織變化，的確可以窺視些許端倪 一個月前，淘系電商公佈新一輪組織調整，在這次調整中，原先由蔣凡直接管理的阿里媽媽，被劃歸給劉博（家洛）；天貓商家和行業的運營工作被分給楊光（吹雪）；產品與技術則由湯興（平疇）負責。自此，淘系的三位大將基本明確。 可以很明顯地看出，蔣凡所管轄的業務範圍，被分散成了更小的管理單元。 甚至，在宣佈調整之前，原阿里巴巴副總裁，天貓快速消費品和服飾風尚事業部負責人胡偉雄（古邁）已確認被警方帶走 3、市場上電商企業競爭對手強勁 1）2020年1月以來，阿里巴巴股價上漲幅度超20%，再加上此前幾年積累的漲幅，看起來仍有一線科技股的風采。但如果與市場上其他電商企業對比來看，就會發現事情並不簡單。 2）全球市值最高的電商企業 $亞馬遜(AMZN.US)$ 同一時期股價累計漲幅73.53%，市值總規模來到了1.6萬億美元以上，貝佐斯坐穩了世界","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d2635ff739667d613252b9271ed76fe","width":"1201","height":"649"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ff75a6cd1ab0603becb1bac507d348","width":"1508","height":"707"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef132a8f75bde8391dc34cf1e96cf985","width":"1198","height":"668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/339358872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391303538,"gmtCreate":1606480432424,"gmtModify":1704965820403,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">$Pershing Square Tontine Holdings(PSTH)$</a>&nbsp;There are rumours that PSTH will be merging with Stripe.Cut loss : $20Asymmetrical risk and reward in my opinion.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">$Pershing Square Tontine Holdings(PSTH)$</a>&nbsp;There are rumours that PSTH will be merging with Stripe.Cut loss : $20Asymmetrical risk and reward in my opinion.&nbsp;","text":"$Pershing Square Tontine Holdings(PSTH)$ There are rumours that PSTH will be merging with Stripe.Cut loss : $20Asymmetrical risk and reward in my opinion.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be7c29a750d483c9a231154941b9044e","width":"1080","height":"1964"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391303538","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":307702358,"gmtCreate":1605628134974,"gmtModify":1704961451683,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAXR\">$Maxar Technologies Ltd.(MAXR)$</a>Going to space is my dream!!A good and debt free company to turnaround in next 6 months. Watch out ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAXR\">$Maxar Technologies Ltd.(MAXR)$</a>Going to space is my dream!!A good and debt free company to turnaround in next 6 months. Watch out ?","text":"$Maxar Technologies Ltd.(MAXR)$Going to space is my dream!!A good and debt free company to turnaround in next 6 months. Watch out ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed388912475483efb69f4b085878d8ad","width":"1080","height":"2587"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/307702358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006765527,"gmtCreate":1641855247102,"gmtModify":1676533653604,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a>&nbsp;potential x 2. Watch out💵","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a>&nbsp;potential x 2. Watch out💵","text":"$Intel(INTC)$ potential x 2. Watch out💵","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/173e0e8181fc00c38aa4c849bd5331f8","width":"1080","height":"2199"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006765527","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106482215,"gmtCreate":1620139466537,"gmtModify":1704339225111,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">$U.S. Steel(X)$</a>gogogo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">$U.S. Steel(X)$</a>gogogo","text":"$U.S. Steel(X)$gogogo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e0c2ffba42ae9a163f3b7ab5cafe6f8","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/106482215","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135253793,"gmtCreate":1622166281212,"gmtModify":1704180698770,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C8R.SI\">$JIUTIAN CHEMICAL GROUP LIMITED(C8R.SI)$</a>&nbsp;undergo weak selling and look for breakout&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C8R.SI\">$JIUTIAN CHEMICAL GROUP LIMITED(C8R.SI)$</a>&nbsp;undergo weak selling and look for breakout&nbsp;","text":"$JIUTIAN CHEMICAL GROUP LIMITED(C8R.SI)$ undergo weak selling and look for breakout","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52685ec006e9e3a439aad1a1d270db96","width":"1080","height":"1958"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135253793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":304805465,"gmtCreate":1605189871057,"gmtModify":1704959491517,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally it took off!!!&nbsp;","listText":"Finally it took off!!!&nbsp;","text":"Finally it took off!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/304805465","repostId":"305102548","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":305102548,"gmtCreate":1604923084284,"gmtModify":1704958048749,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CELH\">$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$</a>&nbsp;high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CELH\">$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$</a>&nbsp;high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","text":"$Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ high growth stock! Keep accumulating $23","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/305102548","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391145526,"gmtCreate":1606525121665,"gmtModify":1704966060565,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow it is $75 now!!!&nbsp;","listText":"wow it is $75 now!!!&nbsp;","text":"wow it is $75 now!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391145526","repostId":"304423793","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":304423793,"gmtCreate":1605281041112,"gmtModify":1704960078633,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>&nbsp;is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a>&nbsp;is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.&nbsp;","text":"$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ is a game changer in Insurance industry! With recent quarter revenue increasing, I accumulate more at this $56 level.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6bdb34f3e1a15a5bd428ac24ea22d4a","width":"1080","height":"1880"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/304423793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":245966163251352,"gmtCreate":1701074243839,"gmtModify":1701074246259,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00293\">$CATHAY PAC AIR(00293)$ </a>&nbsp;buy buy buy.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00293\">$CATHAY PAC AIR(00293)$ </a>&nbsp;buy buy buy.&nbsp;","text":"$CATHAY PAC AIR(00293)$ buy buy buy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/245966163251352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947928142,"gmtCreate":1682487368187,"gmtModify":1682487371071,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00175\">$GEELY AUTO(00175)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> False break down in end of Oct 2022. Now forming higher low in weekly chart","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00175\">$GEELY AUTO(00175)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> False break down in end of Oct 2022. Now forming higher low in weekly chart","text":"$GEELY AUTO(00175)$ False break down in end of Oct 2022. Now forming higher low in weekly chart","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947928142","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106228825,"gmtCreate":1620126230167,"gmtModify":1704338983182,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/106228825","repostId":"1119027537","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119027537","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620113950,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119027537?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-04 15:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Alibaba Stock Be In 5 Years?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119027537","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba Group's financial statements are beautiful to look at.The market doesn't give Alibaba credit for its growth and earning power due to fears over corporate governance and politics. These fears are reasonable but likely overblown.If you take its growth at face value, Alibaba stock should more than double in the next 5 years.I generally trust Alibaba's accounting, but the corporate governance issue is thorny. The research I've done over the years has indicated to me that GDP growth has littl","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba Group's financial statements are beautiful to look at.</li>\n <li>The market doesn't give Alibaba credit for its growth and earning power due to fears over corporate governance and politics. These fears are reasonable but likely overblown.</li>\n <li>If you take its growth at face value, Alibaba stock should more than double in the next 5 years.</li>\n <li>An ETF option for investors looking to play Chinese internet stocks.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell?</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f077216824ec4b1eb4a4dfcb3a1b5a42\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\">Alibaba Group(NYSE:BABA)has all the makings of a great story stock. The company has a charismatic billionaire founder, business operations focused on China's rapidly growing internet economy, and strong and growing cash flow. Yet amidst this, Alibaba has fallen from its peak of over $300 per share to under $240 per share as of my writing this. When you look at Alibaba's financial statements, the valuation immediately seems low compared to its explosive growth of revenue, earnings, and cash flow. Something has to give with the valuation, which in my mind offers up a couple of hypotheses regarding Alibaba.</p>\n<p><b>Hypothesis 1:Alibaba stock is extremely undervalued.</b>If you take Alibaba'sincome statementat face value, the growth in earnings is simply incredible. Then if you look at Alibaba'searnings estimatesfor the next couple of years, you see a stock that trades for around 21x current fiscal years' earnings and has earnings growth estimates of close to 20 percent annually. All else being equal, this implies a total return of nearly 25 percent annually for BABA shareholders. The market typically doesn't offer up softball pitches like this, especially in the current bull market, which forces us to consider hypothesis 2.</p>\n<p><b>Hypothesis 2: Alibaba's accounting and/or corporate governance cannot be trusted and the stock is not undervalued.</b>Chinese stocks in general have a poor reputation for accounting quality. A simple look at CCP statistics like GDP numbers or coronavirus case statistics tells you that their numbers are often implausible. This doesn't necessarily mean that Alibaba's books are problematic per se, but it does help explain the discount to Alibaba's apparent fair value. A two-sided discussion on Alibaba's accounting can be found inJulian Lin's recent Alibaba articleand in the comment section for said article.</p>\n<p>I generally trust Alibaba's accounting, but the corporate governance issue is thorny. The research I've done over the years has indicated to me that GDP growth has little to no correlation with stock market returns for any given country. Thestrongest correlation I could findwas the correlation between rule of law, property rights, and corporate governance on one hand and stock market returns on the other. For this reason, I do not recommend any investors to put money in emerging market ETFs as they consistently fail to hold up to my qualitative and quantitative tests. There are often great value plays to be found abroad, but buying indices tend to offer poor risk/reward. International high dividend yield funds like Vanguard's (VYMI) are another nice shortcut to find companies with good corporate governance. Cash payments are hard to fake, after all!</p>\n<p>This is historically an issue when investing in Asian markets, as stock market returns have badly lagged GDP growth. Japanese companies are a good example of this issue, historically they paid little to no dividends and hoarded cash on their balance sheet. The companies often were run to benefit their employees and management rather than to benefit shareholders. This, combined with a very high starting valuation explained 30 years of sideways returns for the Nikkei. Things are changing in Japan, however, and Warren Buffett has made several large investments there. China has had similar growing pains with corporate governance but is getting better over time. Chinese companies arepaying out more of their earnings in dividends, which is an encouraging sign. I still wouldn't broadly invest in Chinese stocks, but there is value to be had if you're willing to dig. Chinese internet stocks are seeing rapid growth and strong profitability, which is a different tune than many commodity-driven emerging markets.</p>\n<p>If Alibaba traded for 40x earnings I could easily point to the risks and say to toss the stock. What makes Alibaba so interesting is that it trades for a lower valuation than the average S&amp;P 500 stock, but has Amazon-like revenue and earnings upside. BABA stock has thus been successful since being listed on US exchanges.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/760b578df32c2882c749f17696fa561d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\">Data byYCharts</p>\n<p>With this in mind, let's look at Alibaba's fundamentals and put a forecast on the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Alibaba Stock Forecast</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba is a very complex business. Unlike Amazon, which is basically one brand, Alibaba has a spiderweb of subsidiaries (a good starting point to get a handle on their subsidiaries is theirlatest earnings presentation). Having this level of complexity in a business makes it hard to analyze, but there is some good stuff in there. Cloud computing with 50 percent year over year revenue growth immediately stands out to me as something that could move the needle on Alibaba's overall results. I'll be completely honest, Alibaba's business is more complex than I have the ability to fully analyze. The issues with the Ant Group IPO and various antitrust issues with the CCP are also out of my core area of expertise.</p>\n<p>What I can do in the absence of any special expertise is to build a simple model using analyst consensus earnings estimates to put a price target on the stock. This gives us a yardstick that we can use. I can't necessarily quantify the political risk to Alibaba, but what I can quantify is the compensation that the share price is giving you for all known and unknown risks to the business. This, for Alibaba and any stock, is the earnings yield. If I have a stock I own like Altria (MO) that trades for about 10x earnings, then I know if I hold the stock for a year, the business is going to earn me 1/10th of my investment back. In Altria's case, most of this will be paid as a dividend, which is great. This earnings yield is the engine that drives successful investing in value stocks, which over the long run tend to outperform the market. In the case of a company like Tesla, you're paying over 150x earnings for the business, so you will need everything to go right at the business over the next 10 years to see a good return. Over the next year, anything can happen to the share price, but over a 5-10 year period, business fundamentals drive a greater and greater percentage of stock returns. This gets us to Alibaba.</p>\n<p>Alibaba trades for a little less than 21x earnings. This means if you hold Alibaba for 1 year you earn about 4.8 percent of your investment in earnings. If Alibaba paid a dividend, they could write you a check for this. Alibaba does not pay a dividend however but reinvests the money for more growth. This leads us to the second part of the model, which adjusts for earnings growth. One way to put a price target on the stock is to take the earnings estimates for 5 years out (if they exist), and then use the current price to earnings multiple on the stock. Only a few analysts have earnings estimates for Alibaba for 5 years out, but the average earnings estimate for the fiscal year ending in March 2026 is $24.48 per share. Put a 21x multiple on this and you get a price target of $514 per share. In this case, you'd make 2.2x your money in Alibaba stock. Alibaba has a history of beating analyst estimates quite handily as well, so it's possible that these estimates are too low and you'd see Alibaba earning $30+ per share, which could triple your money.</p>\n<p>The question that you need to ask yourself is whether Alibaba's valuation is low enough to compensate for the main risks we see in the stock, which are antitrust issues, corporate governance, accounting, etc. At first glance, I think that there is enough compensation here for Alibaba shareholders. Since I personally lack expertise in China though, I bought the dip in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB). The standard deviation on KWEB is about a third lower than it is on BABA stock, and I think the upside is similar. It's not a big holding for me, but the dip in Chinese internet stocks intrigues me, so I bought in. If you recall, I'm not a fan of emerging market stocks as part of an asset allocation plan, instead, this trade comes from my opinion on Chinese internet stocks being undervalued compared to the analyst consensus of what their earnings can be over the next 3-5 years.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Alibaba Stock Be In 5 Years?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Alibaba Stock Be In 5 Years?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-04 15:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423834-alibaba-stock-in-5-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba Group's financial statements are beautiful to look at.\nThe market doesn't give Alibaba credit for its growth and earning power due to fears over corporate governance and politics. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423834-alibaba-stock-in-5-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423834-alibaba-stock-in-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1119027537","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba Group's financial statements are beautiful to look at.\nThe market doesn't give Alibaba credit for its growth and earning power due to fears over corporate governance and politics. These fears are reasonable but likely overblown.\nIf you take its growth at face value, Alibaba stock should more than double in the next 5 years.\nAn ETF option for investors looking to play Chinese internet stocks.\n\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell?\nAlibaba Group(NYSE:BABA)has all the makings of a great story stock. The company has a charismatic billionaire founder, business operations focused on China's rapidly growing internet economy, and strong and growing cash flow. Yet amidst this, Alibaba has fallen from its peak of over $300 per share to under $240 per share as of my writing this. When you look at Alibaba's financial statements, the valuation immediately seems low compared to its explosive growth of revenue, earnings, and cash flow. Something has to give with the valuation, which in my mind offers up a couple of hypotheses regarding Alibaba.\nHypothesis 1:Alibaba stock is extremely undervalued.If you take Alibaba'sincome statementat face value, the growth in earnings is simply incredible. Then if you look at Alibaba'searnings estimatesfor the next couple of years, you see a stock that trades for around 21x current fiscal years' earnings and has earnings growth estimates of close to 20 percent annually. All else being equal, this implies a total return of nearly 25 percent annually for BABA shareholders. The market typically doesn't offer up softball pitches like this, especially in the current bull market, which forces us to consider hypothesis 2.\nHypothesis 2: Alibaba's accounting and/or corporate governance cannot be trusted and the stock is not undervalued.Chinese stocks in general have a poor reputation for accounting quality. A simple look at CCP statistics like GDP numbers or coronavirus case statistics tells you that their numbers are often implausible. This doesn't necessarily mean that Alibaba's books are problematic per se, but it does help explain the discount to Alibaba's apparent fair value. A two-sided discussion on Alibaba's accounting can be found inJulian Lin's recent Alibaba articleand in the comment section for said article.\nI generally trust Alibaba's accounting, but the corporate governance issue is thorny. The research I've done over the years has indicated to me that GDP growth has little to no correlation with stock market returns for any given country. Thestrongest correlation I could findwas the correlation between rule of law, property rights, and corporate governance on one hand and stock market returns on the other. For this reason, I do not recommend any investors to put money in emerging market ETFs as they consistently fail to hold up to my qualitative and quantitative tests. There are often great value plays to be found abroad, but buying indices tend to offer poor risk/reward. International high dividend yield funds like Vanguard's (VYMI) are another nice shortcut to find companies with good corporate governance. Cash payments are hard to fake, after all!\nThis is historically an issue when investing in Asian markets, as stock market returns have badly lagged GDP growth. Japanese companies are a good example of this issue, historically they paid little to no dividends and hoarded cash on their balance sheet. The companies often were run to benefit their employees and management rather than to benefit shareholders. This, combined with a very high starting valuation explained 30 years of sideways returns for the Nikkei. Things are changing in Japan, however, and Warren Buffett has made several large investments there. China has had similar growing pains with corporate governance but is getting better over time. Chinese companies arepaying out more of their earnings in dividends, which is an encouraging sign. I still wouldn't broadly invest in Chinese stocks, but there is value to be had if you're willing to dig. Chinese internet stocks are seeing rapid growth and strong profitability, which is a different tune than many commodity-driven emerging markets.\nIf Alibaba traded for 40x earnings I could easily point to the risks and say to toss the stock. What makes Alibaba so interesting is that it trades for a lower valuation than the average S&P 500 stock, but has Amazon-like revenue and earnings upside. BABA stock has thus been successful since being listed on US exchanges.\nData byYCharts\nWith this in mind, let's look at Alibaba's fundamentals and put a forecast on the stock.\nAlibaba Stock Forecast\nAlibaba is a very complex business. Unlike Amazon, which is basically one brand, Alibaba has a spiderweb of subsidiaries (a good starting point to get a handle on their subsidiaries is theirlatest earnings presentation). Having this level of complexity in a business makes it hard to analyze, but there is some good stuff in there. Cloud computing with 50 percent year over year revenue growth immediately stands out to me as something that could move the needle on Alibaba's overall results. I'll be completely honest, Alibaba's business is more complex than I have the ability to fully analyze. The issues with the Ant Group IPO and various antitrust issues with the CCP are also out of my core area of expertise.\nWhat I can do in the absence of any special expertise is to build a simple model using analyst consensus earnings estimates to put a price target on the stock. This gives us a yardstick that we can use. I can't necessarily quantify the political risk to Alibaba, but what I can quantify is the compensation that the share price is giving you for all known and unknown risks to the business. This, for Alibaba and any stock, is the earnings yield. If I have a stock I own like Altria (MO) that trades for about 10x earnings, then I know if I hold the stock for a year, the business is going to earn me 1/10th of my investment back. In Altria's case, most of this will be paid as a dividend, which is great. This earnings yield is the engine that drives successful investing in value stocks, which over the long run tend to outperform the market. In the case of a company like Tesla, you're paying over 150x earnings for the business, so you will need everything to go right at the business over the next 10 years to see a good return. Over the next year, anything can happen to the share price, but over a 5-10 year period, business fundamentals drive a greater and greater percentage of stock returns. This gets us to Alibaba.\nAlibaba trades for a little less than 21x earnings. This means if you hold Alibaba for 1 year you earn about 4.8 percent of your investment in earnings. If Alibaba paid a dividend, they could write you a check for this. Alibaba does not pay a dividend however but reinvests the money for more growth. This leads us to the second part of the model, which adjusts for earnings growth. One way to put a price target on the stock is to take the earnings estimates for 5 years out (if they exist), and then use the current price to earnings multiple on the stock. Only a few analysts have earnings estimates for Alibaba for 5 years out, but the average earnings estimate for the fiscal year ending in March 2026 is $24.48 per share. Put a 21x multiple on this and you get a price target of $514 per share. In this case, you'd make 2.2x your money in Alibaba stock. Alibaba has a history of beating analyst estimates quite handily as well, so it's possible that these estimates are too low and you'd see Alibaba earning $30+ per share, which could triple your money.\nThe question that you need to ask yourself is whether Alibaba's valuation is low enough to compensate for the main risks we see in the stock, which are antitrust issues, corporate governance, accounting, etc. At first glance, I think that there is enough compensation here for Alibaba shareholders. Since I personally lack expertise in China though, I bought the dip in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB). The standard deviation on KWEB is about a third lower than it is on BABA stock, and I think the upside is similar. It's not a big holding for me, but the dip in Chinese internet stocks intrigues me, so I bought in. If you recall, I'm not a fan of emerging market stocks as part of an asset allocation plan, instead, this trade comes from my opinion on Chinese internet stocks being undervalued compared to the analyst consensus of what their earnings can be over the next 3-5 years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348358713,"gmtCreate":1617890360532,"gmtModify":1704704454723,"author":{"id":"3565397597836068","authorId":"3565397597836068","name":"ChiHong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/53cd4e00dc76e256ea790672d34678b5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565397597836068","authorIdStr":"3565397597836068"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZUO\">$Zuora(ZUO)$</a>&nbsp;going to be 2x&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZUO\">$Zuora(ZUO)$</a>&nbsp;going to be 2x&nbsp;","text":"$Zuora(ZUO)$ going to be 2x","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af96e7fa171c78f3604880ece1902d64","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348358713","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}