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2021-06-20

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Answering the great inflation question of our time

2021-05-13

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Intel: The Empire Strikes Back

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The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?

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and comment!!","listText":"Like and comment!!","text":"Like and comment!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164091154","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133385197","pubTimestamp":1624151969,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133385197?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Answering the great inflation question of our time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133385197","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up","content":"<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”</p>\n<p>The current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?</p>\n<p>Before I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.</p>\n<p>As an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.</p>\n<p>Until now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87f75dfcb98fb5a0e7c3f9d3f8d336e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Used car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.</p>\n<p>To be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)</p>\n<p>But that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&amp;P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.</p>\n<p>Given this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.</p>\n<p>Now I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.</p>\n<p>As for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.</p>\n<p>“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”</p>\n<p>“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.</p>\n<p>COVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.</p>\n<p>A prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.</p>\n<p>Another secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.</p>\n<p><b>Anti-inflation forces</b></p>\n<p>But here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?</p>\n<p>I say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”</p>\n<p>To buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.</p>\n<p>To me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.</p>\n<p>Not only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.</p>\n<p>So technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.</p>\n<p>There is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.</p>\n<p>After World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)</p>\n<p>Like its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.</p>\n<p>The internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.</p>\n<p>So technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.</p>\n<p>COVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.</p>\n<p>How significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.</p>\n<p>More downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”</p>\n<p>And so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”</p>\n<p>I don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Answering the great inflation question of our time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnswering the great inflation question of our time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html><strong>finance.yahoo</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133385197","content_text":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”\nThe current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?\nBefore I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.\nAs an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.\nUntil now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)\n\nUsed car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.\nTo be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)\nBut that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.\nGiven this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.\nNow I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.\nAs for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.\nWhich brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.\n“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”\n“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.\nCOVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.\nA prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.\nAnother secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.\nAnti-inflation forces\nBut here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?\nI say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”\nTo buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.\nTo me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.\nNot only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.\nSo technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.\nThere is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.\nAfter World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)\nLike its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.\nThe internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.\nSo technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.\nCOVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.\nHow significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.\nMore downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”\nAnd so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”\nI don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191433398,"gmtCreate":1620896931314,"gmtModify":1704350070847,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go go go!!!","listText":"Go go go!!!","text":"Go go go!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191433398","repostId":"1106677605","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106677605","pubTimestamp":1620889592,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106677605?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 15:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel: The Empire Strikes Back","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106677605","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryIntel’s historic stumbles over the last years have made it a potential story stock of one of ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Intel’s historic stumbles over the last years have made it a potential story stock of one of the greatest comebacks in U.S. technology history.</li><li>This is confirmed by an equally historic array of events in the last months in the wake of the CEO transition.</li><li>Intel is outsourcing its CPUs, while also building a foundry business itself (licensing its x86 CPUs). Intel has both TSMC and Arm in the crosshairs.</li><li>Intel could be a generational wealth building opportunity for investors. As Pat Gelsinger said, however, this will require execution, execution, and execution to capitalize.</li></ul><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>The quite historic Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)Unleashed event has beencoveredbyseveralotherSeeking Alpha contributors. This article represents my take (including some of the further developments since then).</p><p>For some background, initially I was actually quite \"neutral\" on the CEO transition, which several Twitter followers found quite suspicious at the time. However, the short thesis is that Pat Gelsinger has proven me wrong in a matter of just weeks. Pat's ability to revitalize Intel (on the global semiconductor landscape) in just a few weeks should be considered extremely impressive.</p><p>For a more substantive comment, the headline announcement was obviously the Intel Foundry Services rabbit that Pat Gelsinger pulled out of his hat. If Pat can really pull this off, then he would undoubtedly leave a large mark on Intel's legacy. The \"if\" is quite important, though, as there are obviously some caveats that apply.</p><p><b>Overview</b></p><p>In what is already a year full of landmark evolutions in Intel's history, Pat Gelsinger at the highly anticipated Intel Unleashed event announced Intel's latest salvo of actions towards its quest to regain industry leadership.</p><p>Intel will become a foundry. It will be a fully separate business unit. This time no half-baked Intel Custom Foundry, but Intel instead is putting its money where its mouth is and is building two new fabs at its Arizona campus for the Intel Foundry Services business, worth $20B. Intel announced industry-wide support for this new unit, becoming the third major competitor at the leading edge of the foundry market, including from Qualcomm (QCOM), Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT). If that wasn't enough already, Intel is also putting all of its IP behind the effort, offering customers a range of industry-standard EDA tools as well as IP including Arm, RISC-V and even its very own in-house x86 CPUs and non-CPU IP (including graphics, display, AI, etc.). Intel has both TSMC (TSM) and Arm (NVDA) in the crosshairs with this combined offering. Intel will also readily tell that its industry-leading 2.5D and 3D packaging and chiplet capabilities are another unique, unmatched differentiator.</p><p>Since the CEO transition, most had agreed that any changes that Pat Gelsinger would bring to the table, would take years to develop. Indeed, the 2023 roadmap was already baked (and delayed from 2022), and the Arizona fabs are targeted at 2024.</p><p>However, just a few months in, and Pat is already putting his stamp on the company's future with these blockbuster announcements. For example, Intel will likely already be manufacturing automotive chips by the end of the year (the most impacted segment by the chip shortages).</p><p>Still, a survey of commentaries shows that little has changed: the bears continue to point at Intel's lagging process execution, while the bulls praise Intel for becoming a U.S.- andE.U.-based leading edge semiconductor foundry, and are willing to provide Pat and Intel some credit in their quest to re-establish Intel's dominance. Let's dig deeper.</p><p><b>Seizing the Foundry Opportunity</b></p><p>Intel said it estimates the foundry opportunity to be worth $100B by 2025 (with about half or so of that at leading edge nodes). In the last few years, Intel has liked to talk up its TAM as its largest opportunity ever, so this makes that $300B number even higher. For a full pitch of Intel Foundry Services, see this Intel page:Intel Foundry Services. In short, Intel notes that demand for semiconductors is at all-time highs, and Intel also notes that it has the fab capacity in the E.U. and U.S. to meet those fabless customers' needs.</p><p>As indicated, Intel is building a focused organization around its foundry business, led by a semiconductor veteran. Intel also provided almost two dozen quotes of industry support - which is a bit reminiscent to the numerous support quotes Qualcomm recently put out when it acquired Nuvia. Intel is also investing to build two new fabs (in part) dedicated to this foundry mission, worth $20B.</p><p>One thing in that regard that I haven't seen much discussed is that Intel mentioned a few times the phrase \"committed capacity\". This makes one wonder if Intel has already secured major customer wins. In any case, Pat Gelsinger certainly wasn't shy about name-dropping potential customers, such as the cloud providers as well as possibly Apple (AAPL). During the Q1 call, Intel disclosed already engaging with over 50 potential customers.</p><p>In other words, this truly will be a standalone business unit focused on the full industry - not just a few select customers like back in the Intel Custom Foundry days. (Speaking of which, while Intel's foundry efforts took a major hit due to the 10nm fiasco, this does mean Intel obviously already has vital experience in running a foundry business, so the learning curve shouldn't be large.)</p><p>But Intel is going even further. Besides the fab capacity and dedicated organization under Pat's oversighting, Intel is also putting all of its IP behind this effort to further differentiate its position in the marketplace. This means Intel is offering foundry customers access to industry-standard EDA tools (to overall offer a similar experience as being a TSMC customer), which also includes access to Arm and even RISC-V IP. But even further, Intel also has what certainly must be one of largest portfolios of world-class logic IP, through its own in-house silicon engineering. Intel is also offering this IP to its Intel Foundry Services customers. This means access to things such as Intel's x86 cores, but also other IP such as display, AI, graphics, interconnect, etc.</p><p>As Pat Gelsinger said, this is a really powerful strategy. Since RISC-V is still small, Intel is effectively becoming a competitor to Arm by licensing its x86 cores. All the arguments that have weighed on Intel's stock for years, about the dominance of Arm, suddenly have to be revised.</p><p>For example, if a cloud service provider wanted to take Intel's x86 cores and create their own chips based on these cores, this would be completely possible - in the process effectively sidestepping the Intel client or data center business. This could hence be seen as an alternative to Arm's Neoverse effort. Whether this eventually results in x86-based AWS Graviton instances remains to be seen. But it does provide a clear, perhaps even visionary, response to some of the concerns of those players developing their own (Arm-based) silicon, at least in principle.</p><p>Last but not least, while Intel has been falling behind in process technology (the exact extent of which could be debated), Intel remains at the forefront of the advent of modern 2.5D and 3D packaging. Intel's packaging capabilities such as EMIB and Foveros remain unmatched. Intel for example remains the only company with a true (multi-foundry, inter-company) chiplet ecosystem.</p><p>This provides yet another quite compelling value proposition and could further proliferate Intel's chiplet strategy. For example, while Google(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)just a day ahead of Intel's Unleashed said that the SoC is becoming the new motherboard, Intel effectively said that the SiP (System-in-Package) is becoming the new SoC.</p><p>Intel also notes that geographically, in current times of geopolitical issues, 80% of semiconductor manufacturing occurs in Asian. For some (like government customer), that might be another selling point.</p><p>This only leaves the key question: will Intel Foundry Services succeed? Thebearswill obviously (a priori) say no, for example pointing to Intel lagging TSMC in key areas. However, investors should not be blind sighted to believe that leading edge manufacturing is a binary switch. TSMC, for example, continues to make substantial revenue on N-1 and even N-2 nodes. For a part this is because the process of moving to the leading edge is not a one-off event either. For example, while Apple was TSMC's first 5nm customer in Q3'20, AMD (AMD) likely won't (start to) transition to 5nm until the second half of 2022, a full two years later.</p><p>Additionally, investors should also take note of the long list of customer/industry support Intel Foundry Services has received, which includes: Amazon (AMZN), Cisco (CSCO), Ericsson, Google, Qualcomm and others. Sure, these are just PR statements, but Pat's ability to revitalize Intel on the global semiconductor landscape in just a few weeks should be considered extremely impressive. Pat Gelsinger: \"I'm committed to making this [Intel Foundry Services] a huge success for Intel, it's a key piece of our IDM 2.0 strategy.\"</p><p>Ultimately, fact of the matter is that Intel's move comesat a time when semiconductor supply chains have been elevated to even a political matter.</p><p><b>Meteor Lake, 7nm</b></p><p>There was also another update on the 7nm process. This is now targeted at Intel's 2023 roadmap (as known since mid-2020), effectively representing a full one-year delay. Fact is that Meteor Lake was a 2022 product, and this has been shifted by a full year. This can only degrade its competitiveness (but as indicated this is not news anymore).</p><p>Still, this may remind one of the sagas in early 2018 when Intel announced a similar slip of 10nm from 2018 to 2019. Note that summing these two one-year delays really implies a full two-year delay of the roadmap.</p><p>On the flipside,Intel's progresssince mid-2020 should, in all honesty, leave investors with little doubt of Intel being able to deliver on this, delayed, roadmap.</p><p>In any case, the update was that Meteor Lake will tape-in in Q2. Or rather, its compute tile will tape-in, as Intel announced that Meteor Lake will use Intel's 3D stacking Foveros packaging to mix and match IP. In particular, Intel also formally announced that it would outsource the compute tile, so as also expected there should be some products in 2023 based on TSMC-manufactured CPU cores.</p><p>Note that the rumor mill had indicated Intel would leverage 3nm, while AMD's will likely move to 3nm only in 2024. As another reminder, Intel's 7nm in technical capabilities should be seen as about a TSMC 4nm process (somewhere between TSMC's N5 and N3).</p><p>Intel provided quite a revealing explanation for the 7nm saga. Although Intel had initially advertised 7nm to investors as a learning from the 10nm issues, the issue with 7nm seems to be that it, too, was being developed while the outlook on EUV was still quite uncertain. Hence, Intel's initial 7nm seems to have used EUV quite conservatively, in relatively few layers. Intel said the new 7nm process flow (as it has been developed since mid-2020) uses over 100% more EUV. \"We have now fully embraced EUV\", Pat Gelsinger said.</p><p>These are major, but highly welcome changes this late in the development cycle of 7nm.</p><p>Overall, Intel message had been that 7nm was intended to be the culmination of its learnings from the prior delays, with flawless execution. Instead, 7nm itself seems to have had several issues. On the other hand, investors must also recognize theleadership/management changesIntel/Bob Swan announced in mid-2020, and the resulting progress on 7nm since that timeframe (in merely two to three quarters); Intel is building up a mini-track record again at a pace not even the bulls would have expected.</p><p>Intel announced it would provide more details on its process and packaging later this year, perhaps at its upcoming Investor Meeting or Intel On event. With 7nm now being on track for 2023, investor attention should shift towards 5nm. Pat Gelsinger suggested he wanted to see an annual cadence from Technology Development.</p><p><b>IDM 2.0</b></p><p>In the aftermath of the 7nm delay and the outsourcing and other manufacturing questions Intel got, Bob Swan put what he called the \"modern IDM\" on the agenda. This meant a model in which Intel, driven by its modular (disaggregated, chiplet) architecture, has the ability to mix and match IP from various process technologies and foundries into a single product. Additionally, given its various acquisitions, Intel had already been increasingly using foundries anyway.</p><p>Although some struggle with this, it is really quite simple: while Intel continues to clean up the mess it has from its process development, Intel has decided that using the best process technology (which for the time being isn't quite at Intel) could provide additional value for its CPUs. While it may be only for a limited number of CPUs, this should be seen as another tool in the Intel IDM toolbox to maintain the highest possible competitiveness.</p><p>For example, I already mentioned the possible 3nm CPU in 2023 to leapfrog AMD.</p><p>Swan called it \"modern IDM\", Pat Gelsinger now calls it \"IDM 2.0\". Ultimately, investors should recognize that the goal is the product that Intel will sell, not necessarily where and how it is manufactured.(And as discussed, Pat also added a third ingredient: Intel becoming a foundry itself.)</p><p><b>IBM Partnership</b></p><p>First, this is not just some patent licensing agreement. Intel and IBM (IBM) clearly said their engineers would collaborate in New York.</p><p>Secondly, while some may doubt about the value of this partnership, the proof is in the pudding. While IBM has sold its fabs years ago, it stillparticipates in quite fundamental research with regards to process technology. While I continue to believe Intel still has a world-class research organization on its own, some of the proof is nevertheless also here in the pudding of the past years of (lack of) execution.</p><p><b>Financial Update</b></p><p>Intel also used the event to update its financial guidance, asdiscussed here. For example, Intel provided a record capex guidance for $19-20B. While not quite matching TSMC, note that Intel has already been expanding its fabs for several years, already doubling its capacity from 2017 through 2020.</p><p><b>Words of Caution</b></p><p>I initially had a quite elaborate section here discussing the numerous 10nm and 7nm delays, to discuss some of the risks that cannot necessarily be neglected yet. But in short, the main observation is that given all the delays, 7nm Meteor Lake will launch a full four years (late 2019 -&gt; late 2023) after 10nm Ice Lake. That's double the usual Moore's Law cadence (and obviously Ice Lake itself was already delayed by 1-2 years).</p><p>In other words, while Intel was keen to point out that \"Intel is back\",<b>in reality Intel is still very far from back</b>. That is indeed whatPat later confirmed, as he expects it will take several years to truly and fully catch up. (Note that Intel's execution has become so worrisome that both analysts and press had already started to doubt whether Intel will<i>ever</i>be able to catch up.) For a part, though, that is exactly the investment thesis: Intel regaining industry-leadership.</p><p><b>The Empire Strikes Back</b></p><p>One quite interesting illustration of this is Intel capitalizing on TSMC's supply constraints that have caused global shortages, kickstarting the Intel Foundry Services business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ba4edfad5adcf0da83ea5d4d9dc6d1b\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"705\"></p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p>As oft-quoted, thethree-headed dragon that composes Intel's main riskconsists ofAMD,NvidiArmandTSMC.</p><p>That explains why this article is bullish. Intel Foundry Services 'attacks' TSMC, while its licensing of x86 disposes of the Arm threat.</p><p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p>So what does this leave for investors? First, clearly the easy money has already been made on the stock. The bargain was very obvious when Intel was sub-$50. The CEO switch has, however, brought a new wind of energy inside the company, as well as outside towards investors.</p><p>This, secondly, does leave a lot more upside on the table however: the stock rallied to (nearly) multi-year highs simply on investor optimism (driven by the CEO transition), although it has already cooled off a bit since. Still, even after the rally Intel still has a (much) lower market cap than the likes of Nvidia (NVDA) and TSMC (TSM). Hence, I would argue that in case of successful execution, even the current investor optimism doesn't fully bake in the ultimate potential upside.</p><p>In other words, if Pat Gelsinger and his army of tens of thousands of engineers really delivers on the path he and Intel are setting, Intel could be a generational wealth building opportunity for investors (just like other best-of-breed stocks such as Microsoft, etc.), as the rally could carry Intel stock a lot higher still. This may be similar, albeit obviously to a much smaller extent, to AMD when AMD was dirt cheap back in its near-bankruptcy days: the stock gives investors a story of Intel returning to its glory days under the new CEO.</p><p>However, as the 7nm discussion in this article was meant to caution investors, any wealth by investing in Intel won't arise quickly. This is something that will take many years - even decades - to play out. This isn't GameStop (GME). From that view, short term traders might perhaps view the recent rally as an exit point to take profits.</p><p>In the grand scheme of things (i.e. tech history), however, a few years really isn't all that much. Pat Gelsinger is doubling down to return Intel back to its glory days of industry leadership as the golden standard in semiconductors. As a long-time Intel bull, this is laudable, and Intel Foundry Services is the icing on the cake. But it will take execution, execution, execution.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel: The Empire Strikes Back</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel: The Empire Strikes Back\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-13 15:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4427816-intel-the-empire-strikes-back><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIntel’s historic stumbles over the last years have made it a potential story stock of one of the greatest comebacks in U.S. technology history.This is confirmed by an equally historic array of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4427816-intel-the-empire-strikes-back\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4427816-intel-the-empire-strikes-back","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1106677605","content_text":"SummaryIntel’s historic stumbles over the last years have made it a potential story stock of one of the greatest comebacks in U.S. technology history.This is confirmed by an equally historic array of events in the last months in the wake of the CEO transition.Intel is outsourcing its CPUs, while also building a foundry business itself (licensing its x86 CPUs). Intel has both TSMC and Arm in the crosshairs.Intel could be a generational wealth building opportunity for investors. As Pat Gelsinger said, however, this will require execution, execution, and execution to capitalize.Investment ThesisThe quite historic Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)Unleashed event has beencoveredbyseveralotherSeeking Alpha contributors. This article represents my take (including some of the further developments since then).For some background, initially I was actually quite \"neutral\" on the CEO transition, which several Twitter followers found quite suspicious at the time. However, the short thesis is that Pat Gelsinger has proven me wrong in a matter of just weeks. Pat's ability to revitalize Intel (on the global semiconductor landscape) in just a few weeks should be considered extremely impressive.For a more substantive comment, the headline announcement was obviously the Intel Foundry Services rabbit that Pat Gelsinger pulled out of his hat. If Pat can really pull this off, then he would undoubtedly leave a large mark on Intel's legacy. The \"if\" is quite important, though, as there are obviously some caveats that apply.OverviewIn what is already a year full of landmark evolutions in Intel's history, Pat Gelsinger at the highly anticipated Intel Unleashed event announced Intel's latest salvo of actions towards its quest to regain industry leadership.Intel will become a foundry. It will be a fully separate business unit. This time no half-baked Intel Custom Foundry, but Intel instead is putting its money where its mouth is and is building two new fabs at its Arizona campus for the Intel Foundry Services business, worth $20B. Intel announced industry-wide support for this new unit, becoming the third major competitor at the leading edge of the foundry market, including from Qualcomm (QCOM), Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT). If that wasn't enough already, Intel is also putting all of its IP behind the effort, offering customers a range of industry-standard EDA tools as well as IP including Arm, RISC-V and even its very own in-house x86 CPUs and non-CPU IP (including graphics, display, AI, etc.). Intel has both TSMC (TSM) and Arm (NVDA) in the crosshairs with this combined offering. Intel will also readily tell that its industry-leading 2.5D and 3D packaging and chiplet capabilities are another unique, unmatched differentiator.Since the CEO transition, most had agreed that any changes that Pat Gelsinger would bring to the table, would take years to develop. Indeed, the 2023 roadmap was already baked (and delayed from 2022), and the Arizona fabs are targeted at 2024.However, just a few months in, and Pat is already putting his stamp on the company's future with these blockbuster announcements. For example, Intel will likely already be manufacturing automotive chips by the end of the year (the most impacted segment by the chip shortages).Still, a survey of commentaries shows that little has changed: the bears continue to point at Intel's lagging process execution, while the bulls praise Intel for becoming a U.S.- andE.U.-based leading edge semiconductor foundry, and are willing to provide Pat and Intel some credit in their quest to re-establish Intel's dominance. Let's dig deeper.Seizing the Foundry OpportunityIntel said it estimates the foundry opportunity to be worth $100B by 2025 (with about half or so of that at leading edge nodes). In the last few years, Intel has liked to talk up its TAM as its largest opportunity ever, so this makes that $300B number even higher. For a full pitch of Intel Foundry Services, see this Intel page:Intel Foundry Services. In short, Intel notes that demand for semiconductors is at all-time highs, and Intel also notes that it has the fab capacity in the E.U. and U.S. to meet those fabless customers' needs.As indicated, Intel is building a focused organization around its foundry business, led by a semiconductor veteran. Intel also provided almost two dozen quotes of industry support - which is a bit reminiscent to the numerous support quotes Qualcomm recently put out when it acquired Nuvia. Intel is also investing to build two new fabs (in part) dedicated to this foundry mission, worth $20B.One thing in that regard that I haven't seen much discussed is that Intel mentioned a few times the phrase \"committed capacity\". This makes one wonder if Intel has already secured major customer wins. In any case, Pat Gelsinger certainly wasn't shy about name-dropping potential customers, such as the cloud providers as well as possibly Apple (AAPL). During the Q1 call, Intel disclosed already engaging with over 50 potential customers.In other words, this truly will be a standalone business unit focused on the full industry - not just a few select customers like back in the Intel Custom Foundry days. (Speaking of which, while Intel's foundry efforts took a major hit due to the 10nm fiasco, this does mean Intel obviously already has vital experience in running a foundry business, so the learning curve shouldn't be large.)But Intel is going even further. Besides the fab capacity and dedicated organization under Pat's oversighting, Intel is also putting all of its IP behind this effort to further differentiate its position in the marketplace. This means Intel is offering foundry customers access to industry-standard EDA tools (to overall offer a similar experience as being a TSMC customer), which also includes access to Arm and even RISC-V IP. But even further, Intel also has what certainly must be one of largest portfolios of world-class logic IP, through its own in-house silicon engineering. Intel is also offering this IP to its Intel Foundry Services customers. This means access to things such as Intel's x86 cores, but also other IP such as display, AI, graphics, interconnect, etc.As Pat Gelsinger said, this is a really powerful strategy. Since RISC-V is still small, Intel is effectively becoming a competitor to Arm by licensing its x86 cores. All the arguments that have weighed on Intel's stock for years, about the dominance of Arm, suddenly have to be revised.For example, if a cloud service provider wanted to take Intel's x86 cores and create their own chips based on these cores, this would be completely possible - in the process effectively sidestepping the Intel client or data center business. This could hence be seen as an alternative to Arm's Neoverse effort. Whether this eventually results in x86-based AWS Graviton instances remains to be seen. But it does provide a clear, perhaps even visionary, response to some of the concerns of those players developing their own (Arm-based) silicon, at least in principle.Last but not least, while Intel has been falling behind in process technology (the exact extent of which could be debated), Intel remains at the forefront of the advent of modern 2.5D and 3D packaging. Intel's packaging capabilities such as EMIB and Foveros remain unmatched. Intel for example remains the only company with a true (multi-foundry, inter-company) chiplet ecosystem.This provides yet another quite compelling value proposition and could further proliferate Intel's chiplet strategy. For example, while Google(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)just a day ahead of Intel's Unleashed said that the SoC is becoming the new motherboard, Intel effectively said that the SiP (System-in-Package) is becoming the new SoC.Intel also notes that geographically, in current times of geopolitical issues, 80% of semiconductor manufacturing occurs in Asian. For some (like government customer), that might be another selling point.This only leaves the key question: will Intel Foundry Services succeed? Thebearswill obviously (a priori) say no, for example pointing to Intel lagging TSMC in key areas. However, investors should not be blind sighted to believe that leading edge manufacturing is a binary switch. TSMC, for example, continues to make substantial revenue on N-1 and even N-2 nodes. For a part this is because the process of moving to the leading edge is not a one-off event either. For example, while Apple was TSMC's first 5nm customer in Q3'20, AMD (AMD) likely won't (start to) transition to 5nm until the second half of 2022, a full two years later.Additionally, investors should also take note of the long list of customer/industry support Intel Foundry Services has received, which includes: Amazon (AMZN), Cisco (CSCO), Ericsson, Google, Qualcomm and others. Sure, these are just PR statements, but Pat's ability to revitalize Intel on the global semiconductor landscape in just a few weeks should be considered extremely impressive. Pat Gelsinger: \"I'm committed to making this [Intel Foundry Services] a huge success for Intel, it's a key piece of our IDM 2.0 strategy.\"Ultimately, fact of the matter is that Intel's move comesat a time when semiconductor supply chains have been elevated to even a political matter.Meteor Lake, 7nmThere was also another update on the 7nm process. This is now targeted at Intel's 2023 roadmap (as known since mid-2020), effectively representing a full one-year delay. Fact is that Meteor Lake was a 2022 product, and this has been shifted by a full year. This can only degrade its competitiveness (but as indicated this is not news anymore).Still, this may remind one of the sagas in early 2018 when Intel announced a similar slip of 10nm from 2018 to 2019. Note that summing these two one-year delays really implies a full two-year delay of the roadmap.On the flipside,Intel's progresssince mid-2020 should, in all honesty, leave investors with little doubt of Intel being able to deliver on this, delayed, roadmap.In any case, the update was that Meteor Lake will tape-in in Q2. Or rather, its compute tile will tape-in, as Intel announced that Meteor Lake will use Intel's 3D stacking Foveros packaging to mix and match IP. In particular, Intel also formally announced that it would outsource the compute tile, so as also expected there should be some products in 2023 based on TSMC-manufactured CPU cores.Note that the rumor mill had indicated Intel would leverage 3nm, while AMD's will likely move to 3nm only in 2024. As another reminder, Intel's 7nm in technical capabilities should be seen as about a TSMC 4nm process (somewhere between TSMC's N5 and N3).Intel provided quite a revealing explanation for the 7nm saga. Although Intel had initially advertised 7nm to investors as a learning from the 10nm issues, the issue with 7nm seems to be that it, too, was being developed while the outlook on EUV was still quite uncertain. Hence, Intel's initial 7nm seems to have used EUV quite conservatively, in relatively few layers. Intel said the new 7nm process flow (as it has been developed since mid-2020) uses over 100% more EUV. \"We have now fully embraced EUV\", Pat Gelsinger said.These are major, but highly welcome changes this late in the development cycle of 7nm.Overall, Intel message had been that 7nm was intended to be the culmination of its learnings from the prior delays, with flawless execution. Instead, 7nm itself seems to have had several issues. On the other hand, investors must also recognize theleadership/management changesIntel/Bob Swan announced in mid-2020, and the resulting progress on 7nm since that timeframe (in merely two to three quarters); Intel is building up a mini-track record again at a pace not even the bulls would have expected.Intel announced it would provide more details on its process and packaging later this year, perhaps at its upcoming Investor Meeting or Intel On event. With 7nm now being on track for 2023, investor attention should shift towards 5nm. Pat Gelsinger suggested he wanted to see an annual cadence from Technology Development.IDM 2.0In the aftermath of the 7nm delay and the outsourcing and other manufacturing questions Intel got, Bob Swan put what he called the \"modern IDM\" on the agenda. This meant a model in which Intel, driven by its modular (disaggregated, chiplet) architecture, has the ability to mix and match IP from various process technologies and foundries into a single product. Additionally, given its various acquisitions, Intel had already been increasingly using foundries anyway.Although some struggle with this, it is really quite simple: while Intel continues to clean up the mess it has from its process development, Intel has decided that using the best process technology (which for the time being isn't quite at Intel) could provide additional value for its CPUs. While it may be only for a limited number of CPUs, this should be seen as another tool in the Intel IDM toolbox to maintain the highest possible competitiveness.For example, I already mentioned the possible 3nm CPU in 2023 to leapfrog AMD.Swan called it \"modern IDM\", Pat Gelsinger now calls it \"IDM 2.0\". Ultimately, investors should recognize that the goal is the product that Intel will sell, not necessarily where and how it is manufactured.(And as discussed, Pat also added a third ingredient: Intel becoming a foundry itself.)IBM PartnershipFirst, this is not just some patent licensing agreement. Intel and IBM (IBM) clearly said their engineers would collaborate in New York.Secondly, while some may doubt about the value of this partnership, the proof is in the pudding. While IBM has sold its fabs years ago, it stillparticipates in quite fundamental research with regards to process technology. While I continue to believe Intel still has a world-class research organization on its own, some of the proof is nevertheless also here in the pudding of the past years of (lack of) execution.Financial UpdateIntel also used the event to update its financial guidance, asdiscussed here. For example, Intel provided a record capex guidance for $19-20B. While not quite matching TSMC, note that Intel has already been expanding its fabs for several years, already doubling its capacity from 2017 through 2020.Words of CautionI initially had a quite elaborate section here discussing the numerous 10nm and 7nm delays, to discuss some of the risks that cannot necessarily be neglected yet. But in short, the main observation is that given all the delays, 7nm Meteor Lake will launch a full four years (late 2019 -> late 2023) after 10nm Ice Lake. That's double the usual Moore's Law cadence (and obviously Ice Lake itself was already delayed by 1-2 years).In other words, while Intel was keen to point out that \"Intel is back\",in reality Intel is still very far from back. That is indeed whatPat later confirmed, as he expects it will take several years to truly and fully catch up. (Note that Intel's execution has become so worrisome that both analysts and press had already started to doubt whether Intel willeverbe able to catch up.) For a part, though, that is exactly the investment thesis: Intel regaining industry-leadership.The Empire Strikes BackOne quite interesting illustration of this is Intel capitalizing on TSMC's supply constraints that have caused global shortages, kickstarting the Intel Foundry Services business.RisksAs oft-quoted, thethree-headed dragon that composes Intel's main riskconsists ofAMD,NvidiArmandTSMC.That explains why this article is bullish. Intel Foundry Services 'attacks' TSMC, while its licensing of x86 disposes of the Arm threat.Investor TakeawaySo what does this leave for investors? First, clearly the easy money has already been made on the stock. The bargain was very obvious when Intel was sub-$50. The CEO switch has, however, brought a new wind of energy inside the company, as well as outside towards investors.This, secondly, does leave a lot more upside on the table however: the stock rallied to (nearly) multi-year highs simply on investor optimism (driven by the CEO transition), although it has already cooled off a bit since. Still, even after the rally Intel still has a (much) lower market cap than the likes of Nvidia (NVDA) and TSMC (TSM). Hence, I would argue that in case of successful execution, even the current investor optimism doesn't fully bake in the ultimate potential upside.In other words, if Pat Gelsinger and his army of tens of thousands of engineers really delivers on the path he and Intel are setting, Intel could be a generational wealth building opportunity for investors (just like other best-of-breed stocks such as Microsoft, etc.), as the rally could carry Intel stock a lot higher still. This may be similar, albeit obviously to a much smaller extent, to AMD when AMD was dirt cheap back in its near-bankruptcy days: the stock gives investors a story of Intel returning to its glory days under the new CEO.However, as the 7nm discussion in this article was meant to caution investors, any wealth by investing in Intel won't arise quickly. This is something that will take many years - even decades - to play out. This isn't GameStop (GME). From that view, short term traders might perhaps view the recent rally as an exit point to take profits.In the grand scheme of things (i.e. tech history), however, a few years really isn't all that much. Pat Gelsinger is doubling down to return Intel back to its glory days of industry leadership as the golden standard in semiconductors. As a long-time Intel bull, this is laudable, and Intel Foundry Services is the icing on the cake. But it will take execution, execution, execution.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191439178,"gmtCreate":1620896833394,"gmtModify":1704350069514,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well done ??????","listText":"Well done ??????","text":"Well done ??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191439178","repostId":"2135588647","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135588647","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1620894746,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135588647?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 16:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan's TSMC says electricity now being supplied as normal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135588647","media":"Reuters","summary":"TAIPEI, May 13 (Reuters) - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd said on Thursday that some faci","content":"<p>TAIPEI, May 13 (Reuters) - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd said on Thursday that some facilities experienced a \"brief power dip\" in the afternoon after an island-wider power outage, but electricity is currently being supplied as normal.</p>\n<p>\"TSMC has taken emergency response measures and prepared generators to minimise potential impact,\" it said in a statement.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f4b8b91374144bf039b6881024a1028\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"494\"></p>\n<p>(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Alex Richardson)</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan's TSMC says electricity now being supplied as normal</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan's TSMC says electricity now being supplied as normal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-13 16:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>TAIPEI, May 13 (Reuters) - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd said on Thursday that some facilities experienced a \"brief power dip\" in the afternoon after an island-wider power outage, but electricity is currently being supplied as normal.</p>\n<p>\"TSMC has taken emergency response measures and prepared generators to minimise potential impact,\" it said in a statement.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f4b8b91374144bf039b6881024a1028\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"494\"></p>\n<p>(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Alex Richardson)</p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","TSM":"台积电"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135588647","content_text":"TAIPEI, May 13 (Reuters) - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd said on Thursday that some facilities experienced a \"brief power dip\" in the afternoon after an island-wider power outage, but electricity is currently being supplied as normal.\n\"TSMC has taken emergency response measures and prepared generators to minimise potential impact,\" it said in a statement.\n\n(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Alex Richardson)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193501119,"gmtCreate":1620795605431,"gmtModify":1704348542925,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Please continue to treat me well!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Please continue to treat me well!!!","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$Please continue to treat me well!!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71ce31c5219adc681bf0bfc10a5ef74c","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193501119","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199595330,"gmtCreate":1620715393120,"gmtModify":1704347206965,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to enter?","listText":"Time to enter?","text":"Time to enter?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c981d0a1ae68631f5627bd3584a8f69","width":"750","height":"1618"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199595330","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107635376,"gmtCreate":1620479005295,"gmtModify":1704344226120,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cdc349c3c352faece5f2251832a551a","width":"750","height":"1618"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107635376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102972928,"gmtCreate":1620175429564,"gmtModify":1704339692913,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Looking forward!!! ???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Looking forward!!! ???","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$Looking forward!!! ???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd3d561163cb4477cdca543cbba84244","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102972928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352743004,"gmtCreate":1617007931708,"gmtModify":1704800745065,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wah!!! ?","listText":"Wah!!! ?","text":"Wah!!! ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352743004","repostId":"1141616522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141616522","pubTimestamp":1617007481,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141616522?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-29 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Instagram Is Sharing 79% Of Your Personal Data With 3rd Parties","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141616522","media":"zerohedge","summary":"We’ve all experienced this:one second you’re watching a product review on YouTube and the next you s","content":"<p>We’ve all experienced this:<b><i>one second you’re watching a product review on YouTube and the next you see an advert for exactly that product in your Instagram feed.</i></b></p><p>While it still feels like some kind of dark magic is at work there, we’ve pretty much gotten used to this type of thing by now – even though there are instances when it still feels a bit spooky, especially when you’re certain you’ve only talked about a product or mentioned it in a personal message.</p><p>The truth of the matter is,as Statista's Felix Richter notes,<b>the apps and websites we’re using collect vast amounts of data about us, and, in many cases, this data is even passed on to third parties.</b>This of course, shouldn’t happen without permission, which is why we usually have to agree to a long list of terms and conditions before using an app. (And honestly, when is the last time you’ve read these before clicking yes?)</p><p><b>Last year, Apple made it a bit easier for consumers to understand what kind of data apps collect and how that data is being used.</b>The company introduced privacy labels to apps in its App Store, categorizing personal data into 14 categories ranging from user location to purchases, search and browsing history and contact information.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd9cd81d74b948d6b25362b53b7d492\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"1556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>You will find more infographics atStatista</i></p><p>Secure cloud provider&nbsp;pCloud&nbsp;has used this data to analyze a number of popular apps with respect to their collecting and sharing of user data.</p><p>As the chart above shows,<b>Instagram is most likely to share your personal information</b>with third parties for advertising purposes.<b>The popular app shares data from 11 out of 14 categories with third parties, putting it ahead of Facebook,</b>which interestingly shares fewer data with external advertisers.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Instagram Is Sharing 79% Of Your Personal Data With 3rd Parties</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInstagram Is Sharing 79% Of Your Personal Data With 3rd Parties\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-29 16:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/instagram-sharing-79-your-personal-data-3rd-parties><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We’ve all experienced this:one second you’re watching a product review on YouTube and the next you see an advert for exactly that product in your Instagram feed.While it still feels like some kind of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/instagram-sharing-79-your-personal-data-3rd-parties\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e63ded6e0d5b7b10094a5bff1c5585e2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/instagram-sharing-79-your-personal-data-3rd-parties","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141616522","content_text":"We’ve all experienced this:one second you’re watching a product review on YouTube and the next you see an advert for exactly that product in your Instagram feed.While it still feels like some kind of dark magic is at work there, we’ve pretty much gotten used to this type of thing by now – even though there are instances when it still feels a bit spooky, especially when you’re certain you’ve only talked about a product or mentioned it in a personal message.The truth of the matter is,as Statista's Felix Richter notes,the apps and websites we’re using collect vast amounts of data about us, and, in many cases, this data is even passed on to third parties.This of course, shouldn’t happen without permission, which is why we usually have to agree to a long list of terms and conditions before using an app. (And honestly, when is the last time you’ve read these before clicking yes?)Last year, Apple made it a bit easier for consumers to understand what kind of data apps collect and how that data is being used.The company introduced privacy labels to apps in its App Store, categorizing personal data into 14 categories ranging from user location to purchases, search and browsing history and contact information.You will find more infographics atStatistaSecure cloud provider pCloud has used this data to analyze a number of popular apps with respect to their collecting and sharing of user data.As the chart above shows,Instagram is most likely to share your personal informationwith third parties for advertising purposes.The popular app shares data from 11 out of 14 categories with third parties, putting it ahead of Facebook,which interestingly shares fewer data with external advertisers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351474546,"gmtCreate":1616630773785,"gmtModify":1704796595895,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wah!!!","listText":"Wah!!!","text":"Wah!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351474546","repostId":"2121457670","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121457670","pubTimestamp":1616597870,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2121457670?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-24 22:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Dangerous Robinhood Stocks That Could Lose 50% or More, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121457670","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Retail investors could lose a boatload of money from these highly popular stocks.","content":"<p>It's possible that when the curtain closes on 2021, it'll be remembered as the year of the retail investor.</p><p>Since March 2020, we've seen a big uptick in the number of millennials who've put their money to work in the stock market. Online investing app Robinhood, which is known for its commission-free trading platform and gifting of free shares of stock to new users, attracted 3 million new members last year. That's noteworthy given the average age of Robinhood's user base is only 31.</p><p>On one hand, it's great to see young investors who have time as their ally putting money to work in the world's greatest wealth creator. On the other hand, quite a few of these young investors aren't thinking long term. Rather, they're caught up in the recent retail investor-fueled Reddit frenzy and looking to get rich quick.</p><p>The problem with the get-rich-quick strategy is that it rarely works -- and Wall Street knows it.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe3f403b1b970d0e231952ef9c1d01c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p>At the moment, there are four widely held stocks on Robinhood that, according to Wall Street's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year consensus price targets, are expected to lose at least half their value, if not more. If these analyst estimates prove accurate, these dangerous Robinhood stocks could cost unsuspecting retail investors a boatload of money.</p><h2>GameStop: Implied downside of 93%</h2><p>Perhaps it's no surprise that the riskiest Robinhood stock of all is the company that started the Reddit frenzy, <b>GameStop</b> (NYSE:GME). Shares of the video game and accessories company are up nearly 4,700% over the past year, but offer 93% downside, if Wall Street's consensus is correct.</p><p>What made GameStop such a popular company to own among retail investors was its high short interest. Entering January, no public company had a higher percentage of shares held short, relative to its float. Because of this short interest, a flood of buyers were able to execute an epic short squeeze.</p><p>Unfortunately, most of the Reddit rally stocks have poor underlying fundamentals and/or a dubious long-term outlook. When it comes to GameStop, its biggest issue was waiting too long to focus on digital gaming. Even with its renewed focus on e-commerce, total sales for the company declined, once again, during the most recent holiday season. Further, GameStop is almost certainly staring down its fourth consecutive annual loss in 2021.</p><p>If there is some good news here, it's that GameStop isn't a lost cause. Eventually, it'll close enough stores to reduce its expenses to the point where it's profitable again. But there's a big difference between growth with a profit and backpedaling into a profit. GameStop is doing the latter, which is what has Wall Street rightly concerned.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c6cb4d9fcdf85f542f333fc71a2dd58\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>AMC Entertainment: Implied downside of 75%</h2><p>Movie theater chain <b>AMC Entertainment</b> (NYSE:AMC), which has risen in lockstep with GameStop for much of the past two months, is also on Wall Street's naughty list. Putting aside the $0.01 price target recently issued by one analyst, the Wall Street consensus is that AMC will lose three-quarters of its value over the next year.</p><p>AMC's outperformance over the past two months has to do with Reddit traders piling into the company, as well as folks betting on the reopening trade. AMC recently announced that 99% of its theaters would be open by March 26.</p><p>However, this optimism looks highly flawed. Many of the company's theaters are still facing capacity restrictions, and there are no guarantees that the coronavirus pandemic will officially end in 2021. New variants of the disease, along with vaccine holdouts, threaten to push herd immunity and a return to normal further down the road.</p><p>The company's solvency is also a potential concern. Even with more than $1 billion in cash on hand, Wall Street is expecting AMC to lose more than $1.7 billion, total, over the next two years. This implies the need to issue more dilutive stock or more debt.</p><p>As the icing on the cake, AMC is also losing some of its new release exclusivity to streaming service providers. At long last, the movie theater industry is being disrupted -- but that's not a good thing for AMC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91f6037829ea3fb0ae1cae0b95d8d11e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Riot Blockchain: Implied downside of 54%</h2><p>Wall Street also views cryptocurrency mining stock <b>Riot Blockchain</b> (NASDAQ:RIOT) as a dangerous investment. The 76th most-held stock on Robinhood is projected to lose 54% of its value over the next year, according to analysts on Wall Street.</p><p>Riot Blockchain's incredible outperformance in recent months can be tied to the rally in <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC), the world's largest digital currency. As a cryptocurrency miner, Riot uses high-powered computers to validate groups of transactions (known as blocks) on Bitcoin's network. For validating blocks, Riot is given a block reward totaling 6.25 Bitcoin (worth about $365,000). In short, the higher Bitcoin goes, the more these block rewards are worth.</p><p>While this sounds like a pretty straightforward investment, it's not that simple. For example, the asset Riot is \"mining\" has had three separate instances over the past decade where it's lost at least 80% of its value. It's not clear if mining companies could survive such a protracted downtrend in Bitcoin.</p><p>It's equally concerning that Riot Blockchain's future is entirely tethered to the performance of Bitcoin. This is an operating model that's pretty much devoid of innovation and is constantly facing a growing number of competitors. Add on the halving of Bitcoin's block rewards every couple of years, and I believe there's more than enough incentive to stay far away from Riot Blockchain.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5811406aed4001edc942cb25310a21cf\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Sundial Growers: Implied downside of 54%</h2><p>Finally, Wall Street views the fourth most-held Robinhood stock, <b>Sundial Growers</b> (NASDAQ:SNDL), as trouble. Shares of Canadian marijuana stock Sundial are higher by more than 900% since late October.</p><p>Similar to GameStop and AMC, Sundial and its high short interest have benefited from the Reddit frenzy. Investors also appear to be betting on the U.S. legalizing cannabis at the federal level. Doing so would allow Canadian marijuana stocks like Sundial to enter the far more lucrative U.S. weed market.</p><p>But if there's something tenured investors are very familiar with, it's the idea that all next-big-thing investments have losers. Even though marijuana is expected to be one of the fastest-growing industries this decade, Sundial hasn't demonstrated anything from an operational perspective to suggest that it'd be a winner.</p><p>One thing Sundial has done successfully is drown its existing investors in a sea of new shares. In a roughly five-month span, the company issued more than 1.15 billion shares via at-the-market offerings, registered direct offerings, and debt-to-equity swaps. Retail investors are quick to point to Sundial's mountain of new cash raised as a positive, but fail to see how the company's massive share count will cripple its potential for a long time to come.</p><p>With it looking less likely that the U.S. federal government will change its tune on cannabis at the federal level, and Sundial delivering ongoing losses and mediocre sales growth, it qualifies as the No. 1 pot stock worth avoiding.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Dangerous Robinhood Stocks That Could Lose 50% or More, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Dangerous Robinhood Stocks That Could Lose 50% or More, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-24 22:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/24/4-dangerous-robinhood-stocks-lose-50-wall-street/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's possible that when the curtain closes on 2021, it'll be remembered as the year of the retail investor.Since March 2020, we've seen a big uptick in the number of millennials who've put their money...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/24/4-dangerous-robinhood-stocks-lose-50-wall-street/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","RIOT":"Riot Platforms"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/24/4-dangerous-robinhood-stocks-lose-50-wall-street/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121457670","content_text":"It's possible that when the curtain closes on 2021, it'll be remembered as the year of the retail investor.Since March 2020, we've seen a big uptick in the number of millennials who've put their money to work in the stock market. Online investing app Robinhood, which is known for its commission-free trading platform and gifting of free shares of stock to new users, attracted 3 million new members last year. That's noteworthy given the average age of Robinhood's user base is only 31.On one hand, it's great to see young investors who have time as their ally putting money to work in the world's greatest wealth creator. On the other hand, quite a few of these young investors aren't thinking long term. Rather, they're caught up in the recent retail investor-fueled Reddit frenzy and looking to get rich quick.The problem with the get-rich-quick strategy is that it rarely works -- and Wall Street knows it.Image source: Getty Images.At the moment, there are four widely held stocks on Robinhood that, according to Wall Street's one-year consensus price targets, are expected to lose at least half their value, if not more. If these analyst estimates prove accurate, these dangerous Robinhood stocks could cost unsuspecting retail investors a boatload of money.GameStop: Implied downside of 93%Perhaps it's no surprise that the riskiest Robinhood stock of all is the company that started the Reddit frenzy, GameStop (NYSE:GME). Shares of the video game and accessories company are up nearly 4,700% over the past year, but offer 93% downside, if Wall Street's consensus is correct.What made GameStop such a popular company to own among retail investors was its high short interest. Entering January, no public company had a higher percentage of shares held short, relative to its float. Because of this short interest, a flood of buyers were able to execute an epic short squeeze.Unfortunately, most of the Reddit rally stocks have poor underlying fundamentals and/or a dubious long-term outlook. When it comes to GameStop, its biggest issue was waiting too long to focus on digital gaming. Even with its renewed focus on e-commerce, total sales for the company declined, once again, during the most recent holiday season. Further, GameStop is almost certainly staring down its fourth consecutive annual loss in 2021.If there is some good news here, it's that GameStop isn't a lost cause. Eventually, it'll close enough stores to reduce its expenses to the point where it's profitable again. But there's a big difference between growth with a profit and backpedaling into a profit. GameStop is doing the latter, which is what has Wall Street rightly concerned.Image source: Getty Images.AMC Entertainment: Implied downside of 75%Movie theater chain AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), which has risen in lockstep with GameStop for much of the past two months, is also on Wall Street's naughty list. Putting aside the $0.01 price target recently issued by one analyst, the Wall Street consensus is that AMC will lose three-quarters of its value over the next year.AMC's outperformance over the past two months has to do with Reddit traders piling into the company, as well as folks betting on the reopening trade. AMC recently announced that 99% of its theaters would be open by March 26.However, this optimism looks highly flawed. Many of the company's theaters are still facing capacity restrictions, and there are no guarantees that the coronavirus pandemic will officially end in 2021. New variants of the disease, along with vaccine holdouts, threaten to push herd immunity and a return to normal further down the road.The company's solvency is also a potential concern. Even with more than $1 billion in cash on hand, Wall Street is expecting AMC to lose more than $1.7 billion, total, over the next two years. This implies the need to issue more dilutive stock or more debt.As the icing on the cake, AMC is also losing some of its new release exclusivity to streaming service providers. At long last, the movie theater industry is being disrupted -- but that's not a good thing for AMC.Image source: Getty Images.Riot Blockchain: Implied downside of 54%Wall Street also views cryptocurrency mining stock Riot Blockchain (NASDAQ:RIOT) as a dangerous investment. The 76th most-held stock on Robinhood is projected to lose 54% of its value over the next year, according to analysts on Wall Street.Riot Blockchain's incredible outperformance in recent months can be tied to the rally in Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), the world's largest digital currency. As a cryptocurrency miner, Riot uses high-powered computers to validate groups of transactions (known as blocks) on Bitcoin's network. For validating blocks, Riot is given a block reward totaling 6.25 Bitcoin (worth about $365,000). In short, the higher Bitcoin goes, the more these block rewards are worth.While this sounds like a pretty straightforward investment, it's not that simple. For example, the asset Riot is \"mining\" has had three separate instances over the past decade where it's lost at least 80% of its value. It's not clear if mining companies could survive such a protracted downtrend in Bitcoin.It's equally concerning that Riot Blockchain's future is entirely tethered to the performance of Bitcoin. This is an operating model that's pretty much devoid of innovation and is constantly facing a growing number of competitors. Add on the halving of Bitcoin's block rewards every couple of years, and I believe there's more than enough incentive to stay far away from Riot Blockchain.Image source: Getty Images.Sundial Growers: Implied downside of 54%Finally, Wall Street views the fourth most-held Robinhood stock, Sundial Growers (NASDAQ:SNDL), as trouble. Shares of Canadian marijuana stock Sundial are higher by more than 900% since late October.Similar to GameStop and AMC, Sundial and its high short interest have benefited from the Reddit frenzy. Investors also appear to be betting on the U.S. legalizing cannabis at the federal level. Doing so would allow Canadian marijuana stocks like Sundial to enter the far more lucrative U.S. weed market.But if there's something tenured investors are very familiar with, it's the idea that all next-big-thing investments have losers. Even though marijuana is expected to be one of the fastest-growing industries this decade, Sundial hasn't demonstrated anything from an operational perspective to suggest that it'd be a winner.One thing Sundial has done successfully is drown its existing investors in a sea of new shares. In a roughly five-month span, the company issued more than 1.15 billion shares via at-the-market offerings, registered direct offerings, and debt-to-equity swaps. Retail investors are quick to point to Sundial's mountain of new cash raised as a positive, but fail to see how the company's massive share count will cripple its potential for a long time to come.With it looking less likely that the U.S. federal government will change its tune on cannabis at the federal level, and Sundial delivering ongoing losses and mediocre sales growth, it qualifies as the No. 1 pot stock worth avoiding.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351323876,"gmtCreate":1616566658395,"gmtModify":1704795733776,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351323876","repostId":"2121258455","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323931901,"gmtCreate":1615297191903,"gmtModify":1704780753082,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!!!","listText":"Great!!!","text":"Great!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323931901","repostId":"1135057078","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323933340,"gmtCreate":1615297142080,"gmtModify":1704780752273,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323933340","repostId":"1135057078","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329495719,"gmtCreate":1615266016231,"gmtModify":1704780333469,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Go go go!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Go go go!!!","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$Go go go!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329495719","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381904933,"gmtCreate":1612918475022,"gmtModify":1704875981012,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Singapore GO","listText":"Singapore GO","text":"Singapore GO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381904933","repostId":"2110500970","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381028296,"gmtCreate":1612915392615,"gmtModify":1704875923639,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381028296","repostId":"1114166601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114166601","pubTimestamp":1612866163,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114166601?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-09 18:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114166601","media":"Barrons","summary":"After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first t","content":"<p>After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.</p><p>The central concern is that&nbsp;once Treasury yields climb high enough&nbsp;investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries&nbsp;extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark<b>,</b>Wall Street consensus is hard to find:&nbsp;Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.</p><p>Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.</p><p>Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.</p><p>But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.</p><p>Almost 70% of S&amp;P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.</p><p>That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&amp;P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.</p><p>Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&amp;P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.</p><p>Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.</p><p>More important, a 3% return from the S&amp;P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.</p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.</p><p>In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.</p><p>There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:&nbsp; Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.</p><p>Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.</p><p>Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.</p><p>So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-09 18:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114166601","content_text":"After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.The central concern is that once Treasury yields climb high enough investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark,Wall Street consensus is hard to find: Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.Almost 70% of S&P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.More important, a 3% return from the S&P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:  Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":102972928,"gmtCreate":1620175429564,"gmtModify":1704339692913,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Looking forward!!! ???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Looking forward!!! ???","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$Looking forward!!! ???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd3d561163cb4477cdca543cbba84244","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102972928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164091154,"gmtCreate":1624160377778,"gmtModify":1703829809099,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment!!","listText":"Like and comment!!","text":"Like and comment!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164091154","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133385197","pubTimestamp":1624151969,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133385197?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Answering the great inflation question of our time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133385197","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up","content":"<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”</p>\n<p>The current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?</p>\n<p>Before I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.</p>\n<p>As an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.</p>\n<p>Until now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87f75dfcb98fb5a0e7c3f9d3f8d336e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Used car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.</p>\n<p>To be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)</p>\n<p>But that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&amp;P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.</p>\n<p>Given this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.</p>\n<p>Now I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.</p>\n<p>As for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.</p>\n<p>“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”</p>\n<p>“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.</p>\n<p>COVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.</p>\n<p>A prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.</p>\n<p>Another secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.</p>\n<p><b>Anti-inflation forces</b></p>\n<p>But here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?</p>\n<p>I say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”</p>\n<p>To buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.</p>\n<p>To me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.</p>\n<p>Not only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.</p>\n<p>So technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.</p>\n<p>There is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.</p>\n<p>After World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)</p>\n<p>Like its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.</p>\n<p>The internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.</p>\n<p>So technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.</p>\n<p>COVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.</p>\n<p>How significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.</p>\n<p>More downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”</p>\n<p>And so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”</p>\n<p>I don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Answering the great inflation question of our time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnswering the great inflation question of our time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html><strong>finance.yahoo</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133385197","content_text":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”\nThe current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?\nBefore I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.\nAs an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.\nUntil now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)\n\nUsed car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.\nTo be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)\nBut that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.\nGiven this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.\nNow I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.\nAs for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.\nWhich brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.\n“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”\n“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.\nCOVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.\nA prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.\nAnother secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.\nAnti-inflation forces\nBut here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?\nI say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”\nTo buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.\nTo me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.\nNot only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.\nSo technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.\nThere is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.\nAfter World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)\nLike its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.\nThe internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.\nSo technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.\nCOVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.\nHow significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.\nMore downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”\nAnd so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”\nI don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193501119,"gmtCreate":1620795605431,"gmtModify":1704348542925,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Please continue to treat me well!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Please continue to treat me well!!!","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$Please continue to treat me well!!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71ce31c5219adc681bf0bfc10a5ef74c","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193501119","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323931901,"gmtCreate":1615297191903,"gmtModify":1704780753082,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!!!","listText":"Great!!!","text":"Great!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323931901","repostId":"1135057078","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135057078","pubTimestamp":1615296628,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135057078?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-09 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 24 Best-Loved Stocks on Wall Street and Why That Matters","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135057078","media":"Barrons","summary":"One way to navigate the choppiness is to look for Wall Street’s best-loved stocks. They are the ones, presumably, that analysts have the most confidence in and will be able to weather whatever 2021 throws at them.A good definition of best-loved is stocks that are nearly universally rated Buy by the analysts covering them.Barron’s looked at the Russell 3000 Index to find a couple dozen that fit the bill. To be included on our list, the stocks had to meet three benchmarks. For starters, at least 1","content":"<p>Stocks are looking a little more sketchy lately—or a least a little more complicated.Inflation, a rotation out of&nbsp;growth&nbsp;into value,memes, vaccines and government&nbsp;stimulus&nbsp;are causing investors to reassess what’s next for the market.</p>\n<p>One way&nbsp;to navigate the choppiness is to look for Wall Street’s best-loved stocks. They are the ones, presumably, that analysts have the most confidence in and will be able to weather whatever 2021 throws at them.</p>\n<p>A good definition of best-loved is stocks that are nearly universally rated Buy by the analysts covering them.<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;looked at the&nbsp;Russell 3000 Index&nbsp;to find a couple dozen that fit the bill. To be included on our list, the stocks had to meet three benchmarks. For starters, at least 10 analysts have to cover the stock. There isn’t much use in declaring a stock well-loved if only one analyst rates it Buy. The companies also have to have no Sell ratings and market capitalizations greater than a few billion dollars.</p>\n<p>We also excluded biotech stocks. There are well-loved biotech stocks, but buying one or two can be a dangerous strategy for many investors. Biotech stocks can jump—up or down, depending on the outcome of medical data. It can be better to simply hold a basket of biotech stocks instead of looking only at analyst ratings, which can lead investors to implicitly bet on one or two drug programs.</p>\n<p>The Russell 3000’s best-loved 24 large companies, in descending order of market capitalization:Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN), Google parent&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL),Conoco&nbsp;Phillips(COP), software providers&nbsp;Twilo(TWLO) and&nbsp;Ring&nbsp;Central(RING),Cheniere Energy(LNG), property owner,VICI Properties(VICI), auto lender&nbsp;Ally Financial(ALLY),GoDaddy(GDDY), sales tax manager&nbsp;Avalara(AVLR), drug development services provider&nbsp;PPD(PPD), material distributor&nbsp;Builders FirstSource(BLDR), footwear maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), lenderOneMain(ONF), optical products maker&nbsp;Lumentum(LITE), energy firm&nbsp;Chart Industries(GTLS), government and defense contractor&nbsp;Science Applications International(SAIC), software provider&nbsp;Medallia(MDLA),New Residential Investment(NRZ), software providerRapid7(RPD),Agree Realty(ADC), software providerTenable(TENB) and solar power company&nbsp;Sunnova Energy International(NOVA).</p>\n<p><b>Favorites of Analysts</b></p>\n<p>These stocks have among the highest buy-rating ratios</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57a8da85765b4f9013b5ad629fd52b5d\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"801\"></p>\n<p>It’s quite a list covering many industries. The largest tech giants are in there as well as little-known software providers, shoe companies and drywall distributors. The companies are connected by analysts’ love for their stocks.</p>\n<p>There are 490 ratings on the two dozen; 469 of the ratings are Buy—about 96%. Cheniere, Ally, GoDaddy, Builders FirstSource, OneMain, Science Applications, New Residential and Sunnova are perfect. Every analyst covering those stocks rates shares Buy. The lowest Buy-rating ratio is Microsoft, with 93%.</p>\n<p>Still, that’s pretty good. The&nbsp;average&nbsp;Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;is 60%.</p>\n<p>The price-to-earnings ratio for the group falls around 25 times estimated earnings for the coming 12 months. That’s a little higher than the comparable PE ratio of the&nbsp;S &amp; P 500.But that hasn’t hindered the 24 stocks. Shares are up about 55% on average over the past year. What’s more, only three of the 24 are down over that period.</p>\n<p>The average expected gain, based on&nbsp;analyst target prices, from current levels is about 27%. Typically, analyst target prices represent where analysts expect a stock to trade over the coming 12 months. The Sunnova average analyst target price is about $58 a share, almost 60% higher than recent levels. The Conoco target, on the other hand, is right where the stock is trading, but oil prices are moving up, which can help any oil producer stock.</p>\n<p>There is no guarantee that analysts are right. But there are no guarantees in the stock market. What the high Buy-rating ratio does represent, however, is dozens of different analysts from many brokers have all arrived at the same conclusion. These are solid bets.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 24 Best-Loved Stocks on Wall Street and Why That Matters</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 24 Best-Loved Stocks on Wall Street and Why That Matters\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-09 21:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-wall-streets-24-best-loved-stocks-can-help-tell-whats-ahead-51615250420?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks are looking a little more sketchy lately—or a least a little more complicated.Inflation, a rotation out of growth into value,memes, vaccines and government stimulus are causing investors to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-wall-streets-24-best-loved-stocks-can-help-tell-whats-ahead-51615250420?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","TENB":"Tenable Holdings Inc.","GDDY":"Godaddy Inc.","VICI":"Vici Properties","PPD":"PPD, Inc.","TWLO":"Twilio Inc","RING":"iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF","DECK":"Deckers Outdoor Corporation","SAIC":"Science Applications Internation","LNG":"Cheniere Energy Inc","COP":"康菲石油","ALLY":"Ally Financial Inc.","GOOGL":"谷歌A","MDLA":"Medallia, Inc.","RPD":"Rapid7, Inc.","LITE":"Lumentum Holdings Inc.","MSFT":"微软","GTLS":"查特工业","BLDR":"Builders FirstSource","AVLR":"Avalara Inc","ADC":"艾格里房产","NOVA":"Sunnova Energy International Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-wall-streets-24-best-loved-stocks-can-help-tell-whats-ahead-51615250420?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135057078","content_text":"Stocks are looking a little more sketchy lately—or a least a little more complicated.Inflation, a rotation out of growth into value,memes, vaccines and government stimulus are causing investors to reassess what’s next for the market.\nOne way to navigate the choppiness is to look for Wall Street’s best-loved stocks. They are the ones, presumably, that analysts have the most confidence in and will be able to weather whatever 2021 throws at them.\nA good definition of best-loved is stocks that are nearly universally rated Buy by the analysts covering them.Barron’s looked at the Russell 3000 Index to find a couple dozen that fit the bill. To be included on our list, the stocks had to meet three benchmarks. For starters, at least 10 analysts have to cover the stock. There isn’t much use in declaring a stock well-loved if only one analyst rates it Buy. The companies also have to have no Sell ratings and market capitalizations greater than a few billion dollars.\nWe also excluded biotech stocks. There are well-loved biotech stocks, but buying one or two can be a dangerous strategy for many investors. Biotech stocks can jump—up or down, depending on the outcome of medical data. It can be better to simply hold a basket of biotech stocks instead of looking only at analyst ratings, which can lead investors to implicitly bet on one or two drug programs.\nThe Russell 3000’s best-loved 24 large companies, in descending order of market capitalization:Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN), Google parent Alphabet(GOOGL),Conoco Phillips(COP), software providers Twilo(TWLO) and Ring Central(RING),Cheniere Energy(LNG), property owner,VICI Properties(VICI), auto lender Ally Financial(ALLY),GoDaddy(GDDY), sales tax manager Avalara(AVLR), drug development services provider PPD(PPD), material distributor Builders FirstSource(BLDR), footwear maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), lenderOneMain(ONF), optical products maker Lumentum(LITE), energy firm Chart Industries(GTLS), government and defense contractor Science Applications International(SAIC), software provider Medallia(MDLA),New Residential Investment(NRZ), software providerRapid7(RPD),Agree Realty(ADC), software providerTenable(TENB) and solar power company Sunnova Energy International(NOVA).\nFavorites of Analysts\nThese stocks have among the highest buy-rating ratios\n\nIt’s quite a list covering many industries. The largest tech giants are in there as well as little-known software providers, shoe companies and drywall distributors. The companies are connected by analysts’ love for their stocks.\nThere are 490 ratings on the two dozen; 469 of the ratings are Buy—about 96%. Cheniere, Ally, GoDaddy, Builders FirstSource, OneMain, Science Applications, New Residential and Sunnova are perfect. Every analyst covering those stocks rates shares Buy. The lowest Buy-rating ratio is Microsoft, with 93%.\nStill, that’s pretty good. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 60%.\nThe price-to-earnings ratio for the group falls around 25 times estimated earnings for the coming 12 months. That’s a little higher than the comparable PE ratio of the S & P 500.But that hasn’t hindered the 24 stocks. Shares are up about 55% on average over the past year. What’s more, only three of the 24 are down over that period.\nThe average expected gain, based on analyst target prices, from current levels is about 27%. Typically, analyst target prices represent where analysts expect a stock to trade over the coming 12 months. The Sunnova average analyst target price is about $58 a share, almost 60% higher than recent levels. The Conoco target, on the other hand, is right where the stock is trading, but oil prices are moving up, which can help any oil producer stock.\nThere is no guarantee that analysts are right. But there are no guarantees in the stock market. What the high Buy-rating ratio does represent, however, is dozens of different analysts from many brokers have all arrived at the same conclusion. These are solid bets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329495719,"gmtCreate":1615266016231,"gmtModify":1704780333469,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Go go go!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>Go go go!!!","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$Go go go!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329495719","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191433398,"gmtCreate":1620896931314,"gmtModify":1704350070847,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go go go!!!","listText":"Go go go!!!","text":"Go go go!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191433398","repostId":"1106677605","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191439178,"gmtCreate":1620896833394,"gmtModify":1704350069514,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well done ??????","listText":"Well done ??????","text":"Well done ??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191439178","repostId":"2135588647","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351323876,"gmtCreate":1616566658395,"gmtModify":1704795733776,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351323876","repostId":"2121258455","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121258455","pubTimestamp":1616566405,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2121258455?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-24 14:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Global Auto Plants Now Idle as Chip Supplies Dry Up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121258455","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Many of the world’s biggest automakers are suspending operations at their factories i","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Many of the world’s biggest automakers are suspending operations at their factories in Asia, Europe and North America due to a persistent shortage of semiconductors that was exacerbated by a fire at a key chip-producing plant over the weekend.</p>\n<p>Ford Motor Co., Toyota Motor Corp., Volkswagen AG and Honda Motor Co. are among those affected by problems with the supply of semiconductors, which are used in vehicles to manage and monitor everything from engine and driving performance to air-conditioning and entertainment systems.</p>\n<p>“Production is really vulnerable right now,” Bloomberg Intelligence auto-industry analyst Tatsuo Yoshida said. “Any kind of abnormal occurrence causes parts to run out.”</p>\n<p>The shortage initially came about as rising demand for cars coincided with a boom in the market for devices such as laptops, webcams and gaming systems as people spent longer at home due to the pandemic. That diverted chips away from the auto industry, which had earlier slashed orders after Covid-19 caused their sales to collapse. Winter storms in the U.S. also affected semiconductor supplies, and then the situation worsened this week after a fire damaged a plant run by Renesas Electronics Corp., a top provider of automotive chips.</p>\n<p>Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> Securities Co. already estimated in January that the shortage would reduce global vehicle production by 1.5 million units, with Japanese automakers accounting for roughly a third of that total.</p>\n<p>Here are some of the latest stoppages by automakers:</p>\n<p>Hyundai Motor Co. is suspending extra work on the weekend to adjust production of brands including Kona, Avante, Grandeur and Sonata, the Seoul Economic Daily reported.Honda is suspending production at six factories in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, citing the chip shortage as well as congestion at ports and cold weather.Volvo AB is implementing stop days across global truck manufacturing operations, saying it sees a “substantial impact” from the global semiconductor shortage.Ford has halted production at a factory in Ohio and dropped <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> shift at another in Kentucky, both until March 29. It said F-150 trucks and Edge SUVs will be assembled in North America without certain parts and shipped to dealers once electronic modules that contain chips are available.Nissan Motor Co. is adjusting production across its operations in the U.S. and Mexico.Operations at Toyota’s Kolin plant in the Czech Republic, which makes the compact car Aygo for the European market, have been suspended for two weeks from March 22 after cold weather in the U.S. disrupted chip production.Volkswagen is halting production at a plant in Portugal from March 22-28.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMTOY\">Mitsubishi Motors</a> Corp. is reducing domestic output of vehicles by 4,000-5,000 units in March and reviewing production plans for April.</p>\n<p>With the exception of Volkswagen, the share prices of all of those automakers have fallen this week, tracking declines in the S&amp;P Supercomposite Auto Parts &amp; Equipment Index, which is down 10% from a March 17 peak.</p>\n<p>The Renesas fire will halt a production line for 300mm wafers for at least a month and probably have a big impact on the car industry, Chief Executive Officer Hidetoshi Shibata said during an online news conference Sunday. Underscoring the severity of the outage, Toyota and Nissan dispatched workers to help in recovery efforts.</p>\n<p>“The automotive industry is key in Japan, therefore any incident that impacts it has a broad effect on the economy,” said Roman Schorr, a director at Fitch Ratings. With the added variable of a chip crunch, “it’s certainly striking that so much right now hinges on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> factory,” he said.</p>\n<p>Shibata will join executives from Tokyo Electron Ltd. and Kioxia Holdings Corp., as well as representatives from the auto sector, at meeting with Japan’s economy ministry later Wednesday.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Global Auto Plants Now Idle as Chip Supplies Dry Up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Global Auto Plants Now Idle as Chip Supplies Dry Up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-24 14:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-auto-plants-now-idle-052537589.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Many of the world’s biggest automakers are suspending operations at their factories in Asia, Europe and North America due to a persistent shortage of semiconductors that was exacerbated...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-auto-plants-now-idle-052537589.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e8aba7de194dc92d26747c1cfec057","relate_stocks":{"TM":"丰田汽车","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-auto-plants-now-idle-052537589.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2121258455","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Many of the world’s biggest automakers are suspending operations at their factories in Asia, Europe and North America due to a persistent shortage of semiconductors that was exacerbated by a fire at a key chip-producing plant over the weekend.\nFord Motor Co., Toyota Motor Corp., Volkswagen AG and Honda Motor Co. are among those affected by problems with the supply of semiconductors, which are used in vehicles to manage and monitor everything from engine and driving performance to air-conditioning and entertainment systems.\n“Production is really vulnerable right now,” Bloomberg Intelligence auto-industry analyst Tatsuo Yoshida said. “Any kind of abnormal occurrence causes parts to run out.”\nThe shortage initially came about as rising demand for cars coincided with a boom in the market for devices such as laptops, webcams and gaming systems as people spent longer at home due to the pandemic. That diverted chips away from the auto industry, which had earlier slashed orders after Covid-19 caused their sales to collapse. Winter storms in the U.S. also affected semiconductor supplies, and then the situation worsened this week after a fire damaged a plant run by Renesas Electronics Corp., a top provider of automotive chips.\nAnalysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. already estimated in January that the shortage would reduce global vehicle production by 1.5 million units, with Japanese automakers accounting for roughly a third of that total.\nHere are some of the latest stoppages by automakers:\nHyundai Motor Co. is suspending extra work on the weekend to adjust production of brands including Kona, Avante, Grandeur and Sonata, the Seoul Economic Daily reported.Honda is suspending production at six factories in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, citing the chip shortage as well as congestion at ports and cold weather.Volvo AB is implementing stop days across global truck manufacturing operations, saying it sees a “substantial impact” from the global semiconductor shortage.Ford has halted production at a factory in Ohio and dropped one shift at another in Kentucky, both until March 29. It said F-150 trucks and Edge SUVs will be assembled in North America without certain parts and shipped to dealers once electronic modules that contain chips are available.Nissan Motor Co. is adjusting production across its operations in the U.S. and Mexico.Operations at Toyota’s Kolin plant in the Czech Republic, which makes the compact car Aygo for the European market, have been suspended for two weeks from March 22 after cold weather in the U.S. disrupted chip production.Volkswagen is halting production at a plant in Portugal from March 22-28.Mitsubishi Motors Corp. is reducing domestic output of vehicles by 4,000-5,000 units in March and reviewing production plans for April.\nWith the exception of Volkswagen, the share prices of all of those automakers have fallen this week, tracking declines in the S&P Supercomposite Auto Parts & Equipment Index, which is down 10% from a March 17 peak.\nThe Renesas fire will halt a production line for 300mm wafers for at least a month and probably have a big impact on the car industry, Chief Executive Officer Hidetoshi Shibata said during an online news conference Sunday. Underscoring the severity of the outage, Toyota and Nissan dispatched workers to help in recovery efforts.\n“The automotive industry is key in Japan, therefore any incident that impacts it has a broad effect on the economy,” said Roman Schorr, a director at Fitch Ratings. With the added variable of a chip crunch, “it’s certainly striking that so much right now hinges on one factory,” he said.\nShibata will join executives from Tokyo Electron Ltd. and Kioxia Holdings Corp., as well as representatives from the auto sector, at meeting with Japan’s economy ministry later Wednesday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107635376,"gmtCreate":1620479005295,"gmtModify":1704344226120,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cdc349c3c352faece5f2251832a551a","width":"750","height":"1618"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107635376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351474546,"gmtCreate":1616630773785,"gmtModify":1704796595895,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wah!!!","listText":"Wah!!!","text":"Wah!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351474546","repostId":"2121457670","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121457670","pubTimestamp":1616597870,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2121457670?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-24 22:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Dangerous Robinhood Stocks That Could Lose 50% or More, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121457670","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Retail investors could lose a boatload of money from these highly popular stocks.","content":"<p>It's possible that when the curtain closes on 2021, it'll be remembered as the year of the retail investor.</p><p>Since March 2020, we've seen a big uptick in the number of millennials who've put their money to work in the stock market. Online investing app Robinhood, which is known for its commission-free trading platform and gifting of free shares of stock to new users, attracted 3 million new members last year. That's noteworthy given the average age of Robinhood's user base is only 31.</p><p>On one hand, it's great to see young investors who have time as their ally putting money to work in the world's greatest wealth creator. On the other hand, quite a few of these young investors aren't thinking long term. Rather, they're caught up in the recent retail investor-fueled Reddit frenzy and looking to get rich quick.</p><p>The problem with the get-rich-quick strategy is that it rarely works -- and Wall Street knows it.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe3f403b1b970d0e231952ef9c1d01c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p>At the moment, there are four widely held stocks on Robinhood that, according to Wall Street's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year consensus price targets, are expected to lose at least half their value, if not more. If these analyst estimates prove accurate, these dangerous Robinhood stocks could cost unsuspecting retail investors a boatload of money.</p><h2>GameStop: Implied downside of 93%</h2><p>Perhaps it's no surprise that the riskiest Robinhood stock of all is the company that started the Reddit frenzy, <b>GameStop</b> (NYSE:GME). Shares of the video game and accessories company are up nearly 4,700% over the past year, but offer 93% downside, if Wall Street's consensus is correct.</p><p>What made GameStop such a popular company to own among retail investors was its high short interest. Entering January, no public company had a higher percentage of shares held short, relative to its float. Because of this short interest, a flood of buyers were able to execute an epic short squeeze.</p><p>Unfortunately, most of the Reddit rally stocks have poor underlying fundamentals and/or a dubious long-term outlook. When it comes to GameStop, its biggest issue was waiting too long to focus on digital gaming. Even with its renewed focus on e-commerce, total sales for the company declined, once again, during the most recent holiday season. Further, GameStop is almost certainly staring down its fourth consecutive annual loss in 2021.</p><p>If there is some good news here, it's that GameStop isn't a lost cause. Eventually, it'll close enough stores to reduce its expenses to the point where it's profitable again. But there's a big difference between growth with a profit and backpedaling into a profit. GameStop is doing the latter, which is what has Wall Street rightly concerned.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c6cb4d9fcdf85f542f333fc71a2dd58\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>AMC Entertainment: Implied downside of 75%</h2><p>Movie theater chain <b>AMC Entertainment</b> (NYSE:AMC), which has risen in lockstep with GameStop for much of the past two months, is also on Wall Street's naughty list. Putting aside the $0.01 price target recently issued by one analyst, the Wall Street consensus is that AMC will lose three-quarters of its value over the next year.</p><p>AMC's outperformance over the past two months has to do with Reddit traders piling into the company, as well as folks betting on the reopening trade. AMC recently announced that 99% of its theaters would be open by March 26.</p><p>However, this optimism looks highly flawed. Many of the company's theaters are still facing capacity restrictions, and there are no guarantees that the coronavirus pandemic will officially end in 2021. New variants of the disease, along with vaccine holdouts, threaten to push herd immunity and a return to normal further down the road.</p><p>The company's solvency is also a potential concern. Even with more than $1 billion in cash on hand, Wall Street is expecting AMC to lose more than $1.7 billion, total, over the next two years. This implies the need to issue more dilutive stock or more debt.</p><p>As the icing on the cake, AMC is also losing some of its new release exclusivity to streaming service providers. At long last, the movie theater industry is being disrupted -- but that's not a good thing for AMC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91f6037829ea3fb0ae1cae0b95d8d11e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Riot Blockchain: Implied downside of 54%</h2><p>Wall Street also views cryptocurrency mining stock <b>Riot Blockchain</b> (NASDAQ:RIOT) as a dangerous investment. The 76th most-held stock on Robinhood is projected to lose 54% of its value over the next year, according to analysts on Wall Street.</p><p>Riot Blockchain's incredible outperformance in recent months can be tied to the rally in <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC), the world's largest digital currency. As a cryptocurrency miner, Riot uses high-powered computers to validate groups of transactions (known as blocks) on Bitcoin's network. For validating blocks, Riot is given a block reward totaling 6.25 Bitcoin (worth about $365,000). In short, the higher Bitcoin goes, the more these block rewards are worth.</p><p>While this sounds like a pretty straightforward investment, it's not that simple. For example, the asset Riot is \"mining\" has had three separate instances over the past decade where it's lost at least 80% of its value. It's not clear if mining companies could survive such a protracted downtrend in Bitcoin.</p><p>It's equally concerning that Riot Blockchain's future is entirely tethered to the performance of Bitcoin. This is an operating model that's pretty much devoid of innovation and is constantly facing a growing number of competitors. Add on the halving of Bitcoin's block rewards every couple of years, and I believe there's more than enough incentive to stay far away from Riot Blockchain.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5811406aed4001edc942cb25310a21cf\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Sundial Growers: Implied downside of 54%</h2><p>Finally, Wall Street views the fourth most-held Robinhood stock, <b>Sundial Growers</b> (NASDAQ:SNDL), as trouble. Shares of Canadian marijuana stock Sundial are higher by more than 900% since late October.</p><p>Similar to GameStop and AMC, Sundial and its high short interest have benefited from the Reddit frenzy. Investors also appear to be betting on the U.S. legalizing cannabis at the federal level. Doing so would allow Canadian marijuana stocks like Sundial to enter the far more lucrative U.S. weed market.</p><p>But if there's something tenured investors are very familiar with, it's the idea that all next-big-thing investments have losers. Even though marijuana is expected to be one of the fastest-growing industries this decade, Sundial hasn't demonstrated anything from an operational perspective to suggest that it'd be a winner.</p><p>One thing Sundial has done successfully is drown its existing investors in a sea of new shares. In a roughly five-month span, the company issued more than 1.15 billion shares via at-the-market offerings, registered direct offerings, and debt-to-equity swaps. Retail investors are quick to point to Sundial's mountain of new cash raised as a positive, but fail to see how the company's massive share count will cripple its potential for a long time to come.</p><p>With it looking less likely that the U.S. federal government will change its tune on cannabis at the federal level, and Sundial delivering ongoing losses and mediocre sales growth, it qualifies as the No. 1 pot stock worth avoiding.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Dangerous Robinhood Stocks That Could Lose 50% or More, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Dangerous Robinhood Stocks That Could Lose 50% or More, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-24 22:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/24/4-dangerous-robinhood-stocks-lose-50-wall-street/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's possible that when the curtain closes on 2021, it'll be remembered as the year of the retail investor.Since March 2020, we've seen a big uptick in the number of millennials who've put their money...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/24/4-dangerous-robinhood-stocks-lose-50-wall-street/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","RIOT":"Riot Platforms"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/24/4-dangerous-robinhood-stocks-lose-50-wall-street/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121457670","content_text":"It's possible that when the curtain closes on 2021, it'll be remembered as the year of the retail investor.Since March 2020, we've seen a big uptick in the number of millennials who've put their money to work in the stock market. Online investing app Robinhood, which is known for its commission-free trading platform and gifting of free shares of stock to new users, attracted 3 million new members last year. That's noteworthy given the average age of Robinhood's user base is only 31.On one hand, it's great to see young investors who have time as their ally putting money to work in the world's greatest wealth creator. On the other hand, quite a few of these young investors aren't thinking long term. Rather, they're caught up in the recent retail investor-fueled Reddit frenzy and looking to get rich quick.The problem with the get-rich-quick strategy is that it rarely works -- and Wall Street knows it.Image source: Getty Images.At the moment, there are four widely held stocks on Robinhood that, according to Wall Street's one-year consensus price targets, are expected to lose at least half their value, if not more. If these analyst estimates prove accurate, these dangerous Robinhood stocks could cost unsuspecting retail investors a boatload of money.GameStop: Implied downside of 93%Perhaps it's no surprise that the riskiest Robinhood stock of all is the company that started the Reddit frenzy, GameStop (NYSE:GME). Shares of the video game and accessories company are up nearly 4,700% over the past year, but offer 93% downside, if Wall Street's consensus is correct.What made GameStop such a popular company to own among retail investors was its high short interest. Entering January, no public company had a higher percentage of shares held short, relative to its float. Because of this short interest, a flood of buyers were able to execute an epic short squeeze.Unfortunately, most of the Reddit rally stocks have poor underlying fundamentals and/or a dubious long-term outlook. When it comes to GameStop, its biggest issue was waiting too long to focus on digital gaming. Even with its renewed focus on e-commerce, total sales for the company declined, once again, during the most recent holiday season. Further, GameStop is almost certainly staring down its fourth consecutive annual loss in 2021.If there is some good news here, it's that GameStop isn't a lost cause. Eventually, it'll close enough stores to reduce its expenses to the point where it's profitable again. But there's a big difference between growth with a profit and backpedaling into a profit. GameStop is doing the latter, which is what has Wall Street rightly concerned.Image source: Getty Images.AMC Entertainment: Implied downside of 75%Movie theater chain AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), which has risen in lockstep with GameStop for much of the past two months, is also on Wall Street's naughty list. Putting aside the $0.01 price target recently issued by one analyst, the Wall Street consensus is that AMC will lose three-quarters of its value over the next year.AMC's outperformance over the past two months has to do with Reddit traders piling into the company, as well as folks betting on the reopening trade. AMC recently announced that 99% of its theaters would be open by March 26.However, this optimism looks highly flawed. Many of the company's theaters are still facing capacity restrictions, and there are no guarantees that the coronavirus pandemic will officially end in 2021. New variants of the disease, along with vaccine holdouts, threaten to push herd immunity and a return to normal further down the road.The company's solvency is also a potential concern. Even with more than $1 billion in cash on hand, Wall Street is expecting AMC to lose more than $1.7 billion, total, over the next two years. This implies the need to issue more dilutive stock or more debt.As the icing on the cake, AMC is also losing some of its new release exclusivity to streaming service providers. At long last, the movie theater industry is being disrupted -- but that's not a good thing for AMC.Image source: Getty Images.Riot Blockchain: Implied downside of 54%Wall Street also views cryptocurrency mining stock Riot Blockchain (NASDAQ:RIOT) as a dangerous investment. The 76th most-held stock on Robinhood is projected to lose 54% of its value over the next year, according to analysts on Wall Street.Riot Blockchain's incredible outperformance in recent months can be tied to the rally in Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), the world's largest digital currency. As a cryptocurrency miner, Riot uses high-powered computers to validate groups of transactions (known as blocks) on Bitcoin's network. For validating blocks, Riot is given a block reward totaling 6.25 Bitcoin (worth about $365,000). In short, the higher Bitcoin goes, the more these block rewards are worth.While this sounds like a pretty straightforward investment, it's not that simple. For example, the asset Riot is \"mining\" has had three separate instances over the past decade where it's lost at least 80% of its value. It's not clear if mining companies could survive such a protracted downtrend in Bitcoin.It's equally concerning that Riot Blockchain's future is entirely tethered to the performance of Bitcoin. This is an operating model that's pretty much devoid of innovation and is constantly facing a growing number of competitors. Add on the halving of Bitcoin's block rewards every couple of years, and I believe there's more than enough incentive to stay far away from Riot Blockchain.Image source: Getty Images.Sundial Growers: Implied downside of 54%Finally, Wall Street views the fourth most-held Robinhood stock, Sundial Growers (NASDAQ:SNDL), as trouble. Shares of Canadian marijuana stock Sundial are higher by more than 900% since late October.Similar to GameStop and AMC, Sundial and its high short interest have benefited from the Reddit frenzy. Investors also appear to be betting on the U.S. legalizing cannabis at the federal level. Doing so would allow Canadian marijuana stocks like Sundial to enter the far more lucrative U.S. weed market.But if there's something tenured investors are very familiar with, it's the idea that all next-big-thing investments have losers. Even though marijuana is expected to be one of the fastest-growing industries this decade, Sundial hasn't demonstrated anything from an operational perspective to suggest that it'd be a winner.One thing Sundial has done successfully is drown its existing investors in a sea of new shares. In a roughly five-month span, the company issued more than 1.15 billion shares via at-the-market offerings, registered direct offerings, and debt-to-equity swaps. Retail investors are quick to point to Sundial's mountain of new cash raised as a positive, but fail to see how the company's massive share count will cripple its potential for a long time to come.With it looking less likely that the U.S. federal government will change its tune on cannabis at the federal level, and Sundial delivering ongoing losses and mediocre sales growth, it qualifies as the No. 1 pot stock worth avoiding.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381904933,"gmtCreate":1612918475022,"gmtModify":1704875981012,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Singapore GO","listText":"Singapore GO","text":"Singapore GO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381904933","repostId":"2110500970","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199595330,"gmtCreate":1620715393120,"gmtModify":1704347206965,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to enter?","listText":"Time to enter?","text":"Time to enter?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c981d0a1ae68631f5627bd3584a8f69","width":"750","height":"1618"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199595330","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352743004,"gmtCreate":1617007931708,"gmtModify":1704800745065,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wah!!! ?","listText":"Wah!!! ?","text":"Wah!!! ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352743004","repostId":"1141616522","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323933340,"gmtCreate":1615297142080,"gmtModify":1704780752273,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323933340","repostId":"1135057078","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381028296,"gmtCreate":1612915392615,"gmtModify":1704875923639,"author":{"id":"3565591873040890","authorId":"3565591873040890","name":"Alexy78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc520beb679e22e41b60fdc4c7d6b6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565591873040890","authorIdStr":"3565591873040890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381028296","repostId":"1114166601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}