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2021-06-07
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When investing in A shares, which industry is the most profitable to hold for a long time?
Mr_Bright
2021-06-07
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08:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"When investing in A shares, which industry is the most profitable to hold for a long time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124114752","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"近期股市热度再起，很多人再次燃起股市投资的兴趣。经历了春节后的市场下跌及随后的反转，越来越多的投资者开始体会到市场短期波动的无常和不可测，认识到长期持有的必要性。\nA股投资，既可投资个股，也可投资行业","content":"<p>Recently, the stock market has been hot again, and many people have once again ignited their interest in stock market investment. After the market decline and subsequent reversal after the Spring Festival, more and more investors began to realize the impermanence and unpredictability of short-term market fluctuations, and realized the necessity of long-term holding.</p><p>A-share investment can be invested in individual stocks or industries (industry funds/ETFs). Compared with individual stocks, the volatility of the industry is lower, and there is no risk of value clearance when held for a long time. Based on the current market environment, which industries of A shares are worth holding for a long time?</p><p><b>Which industry has been the most profitable to invest in over the past two decades?</b></p><p>Let's first review the historical performance. Suppose an investor invested in industry indexes since the end of 2000 and held them until the end of 2020. What will happen?</p><p>The good news is that annualized yields are positive across all sectors; The bad news is,<b>Only four industries have an annualized yield of more than 10%, namely food and beverage (15.9%), household appliances (11.3%), pharmaceutical and biological (10.3%) and leisure services (10.2%).</b>If investors choose the wrong industry, such as communications (1.7%), steel (1.7%), public utilities (1.4%), architectural decoration (1.3%), mining (1.1%), textiles and clothing (0.5%), etc., long-term holding may not outperform inflation, or even bank deposits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779e428a60d236481d8add0ea65957ff\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The conclusion seems clear at a glance. If you want to invest for a long time, just choose ETFs or industry funds in food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology, leisure services and other industries. This conclusion is also consistent with the general cognition of investors. The consumer and medical industries have always been fertile ground for bull stocks, such as Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600436\">Pien Tze Huang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>Wait, long-term holding has amazing yields.</p><p>The problem is that it is very misleading to calculate the annualized rate of return at any two points in time. The annualized rate of return of the range has two sources, one is valuation growth and the other is profit growth. Only by distinguishing the source of yield can we better distinguish the yield level of the industry.</p><p>By decomposing the annualized rate of return into profit contribution and P/E contribution, we can<b>It is found that between 2000 and 2020, the P/E contribution of most industries is negative, that is, in the past two decades, A shares as a whole have been in the valuation stage (from 69 times to 23 times), and the profit growth of the industry is largely offset by the shrinking valuation.</b></p><p>If only the profit contribution is considered, there will be a significant difference in the ranking of the industry, with banking (17.8%), food and beverage (15.5%), building materials (15.0%), real estate (14.9%), household appliances (13.2%), non-bank finance (12.3%), pharmaceutical biology (11.9%), electrical equipment (11.8%) and other industries ranking high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6efdda79042234acd08d733d6d1661fb\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Take the banking industry as an example, with an annualized profit contribution of 17.8%, which is worthy of being the most profitable industry, but the annualized rate of return in 20 years is only 7.2%, which is a quite mediocre level. The reason lies in the huge fluctuation of the P/E. At the end of 2000, the banking industry, as a high-growth industry, had a bright future with a profit ratio of 67 times. At the end of 2020, the P/E dropped to 7.2 times, and the sharp shrinking of valuation offset the contribution of earnings growth.</p><p>It also again shows the importance of buying at a reasonable valuation level. Even in industries with high profit growth, if the valuation level is too high when buying, the return of long-term holding will be very mediocre.</p><p><b>Footing in the present: Which industries are worth holding for the long term?</b></p><p>In the past two decades, China's economy has gone through a stage of rapid growth. Almost all industries have been growth industries, and the overall profit growth is considerable. However, in 2021, the economy has entered a new stage of transformation and upgrading, and industries have begun to differentiate. Some industries are no longer growing, some industries have slowed down, and some industries have promising future prospects.</p><p>The changes of the industry environment have made the reference significance of the annualized rate of return of the industry in the past two decades limited. Investment must face the future and explore investment objects from future high-growth industries.</p><p>According to the elimination method, the growth space of banking, building materials, real estate, steel, mining, nonferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries is limited, which can be included in the negative list and not considered at the industry level (individual stock investment is another matter).<b>In consumption upgrading, population aging, product<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Under the main development lines of carbon neutrality and carbon neutrality, food and beverage, non-bank finance (securities insurance), pharmaceutical biology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing, energy conservation, environmental protection, leisure and entertainment and other fields have broad prospects.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, on the premise of promising growth prospects, it is also necessary to evaluate the rationality of industry valuation to avoid high-price buying.</p><p>This paper takes the average P/E of the industry since 2016 as the benchmark P/E, and takes the ratio of the current P/E to the benchmark P/E as the valuation coefficient. The higher the valuation coefficient, the higher the industry valuation level. Take food and beverage as an example. The current P/E (20210531) is 51 times, the benchmark P/E is 33.7 times, and the valuation coefficient is as high as 151%. From the perspective of valuation, it is not a good buying point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9f3b240a5b6c98f701e659ce15542eb\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the valuation coefficient from low to high, the valuation level of machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, communication, media, electronics, non-bank finance, computer and other industries is still lower than the average; In contrast, food and beverage, leisure services and other industries, although long-term profit growth can be expected, the current valuation level is high, so investors need to wait patiently and buy after the valuation falls.</p><p><b>Typical Industry Analysis:</b><b>Pharmaceutical Biology</b></p><p>It should be noted that there will also be differentiation within the industry sector. For example, the automobile industry as a whole belongs to a cyclical industry, but the new energy vehicle sub-sector has high growth attributes; For example, the growth of household appliances and traditional household appliances has slowed down, but the smart home electronic sector has a high growth potential, typically such as sweeping the floor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>There is huge room for growth.</p><p>In the current market, the pharmaceutical industry has attracted much attention. This paper briefly analyzes the situation of various sub-industries of pharmaceutical biology for investors' decision-making reference.</p><p>We still decompose the annualized rate of return into P/E contribution and profit contribution, focusing on profit contribution. From the perspective of profit contribution, from 2010 to 2020, the medical service industry performed amazing, with an annualized rate of return as high as 21.1%; Medical devices followed closely at 18.6%; It is followed by the biological products and pharmaceutical commercial sub-segments; In contrast, the performance of traditional Chinese medicine and chemical medicine sectors is very mediocre.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/808c45e3f492c33ea2a18f5fb1cffde8\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Taking stock of 18 medical stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan, the compound growth rate of net profit in the past five and ten years has generally been above 20%, and some can even remain above 40%, which once again shows that profit growth is the soil for producing bull stocks. From the perspective of sub-industry distribution, there are 7 companies in the biological products sub-sector, 5 in the medical service sector, 3 in the medical device sector, 2 in the traditional Chinese medicine sector, and only 1 in the chemical drug sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72997ca352fd1ab42ff9d1437c4d392c\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of profit growth, the sub-sectors of medical services, medical devices and biological products are the first choice. What is the current valuation level of each sector?</p><p>Compared with the average P/E since 2016, the valuation coefficient (current P/E/average P/E) of the medical device sub-sector is only 52%, followed by pharmaceutical commerce (84%), medical services (101%), and biological products (104%). Following, overall, they are at a relatively reasonable level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c670a9882d584a69346483c91ecba1b8\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Enlightenment for Investors</b></p><p>Value investment emphasizes buying and holding for a long time, but listed companies have their own development cycle. Some companies can improve for a long time, but most companies slowly become mediocre, and their end is death. If investors can't tell the difference, long-term holdings can easily fall into the value trap.</p><p>Therefore, selecting companies with growth potential and dynamically evaluating their competitiveness changes constitutes a threshold for long-term shareholding, and many investors are blocked out. Therefore, Buffett suggested that ordinary investors invest in the index, diversify the risks of individual stocks by holding the index, and enjoy the overall growth benefits of listed companies.</p><p>In fact, there is a better way, which is to select industries.</p><p>At present, CSI Index Company has compiled more than 200 A-share sub-industry indexes, many of which have corresponding ETFs and fund products. Based on their own circle of competence, investors choose several long-lived industries with development potential, and buy industry indexes (industry funds or ETFs) at a reasonable level of valuation. Long-term holding has a high probability of outperforming the market.</p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When investing in A shares, which industry is the most profitable to hold for a long time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen investing in A shares, which industry is the most profitable to hold for a long time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">苏宁金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 08:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, the stock market has been hot again, and many people have once again ignited their interest in stock market investment. After the market decline and subsequent reversal after the Spring Festival, more and more investors began to realize the impermanence and unpredictability of short-term market fluctuations, and realized the necessity of long-term holding.</p><p>A-share investment can be invested in individual stocks or industries (industry funds/ETFs). Compared with individual stocks, the volatility of the industry is lower, and there is no risk of value clearance when held for a long time. Based on the current market environment, which industries of A shares are worth holding for a long time?</p><p><b>Which industry has been the most profitable to invest in over the past two decades?</b></p><p>Let's first review the historical performance. Suppose an investor invested in industry indexes since the end of 2000 and held them until the end of 2020. What will happen?</p><p>The good news is that annualized yields are positive across all sectors; The bad news is,<b>Only four industries have an annualized yield of more than 10%, namely food and beverage (15.9%), household appliances (11.3%), pharmaceutical and biological (10.3%) and leisure services (10.2%).</b>If investors choose the wrong industry, such as communications (1.7%), steel (1.7%), public utilities (1.4%), architectural decoration (1.3%), mining (1.1%), textiles and clothing (0.5%), etc., long-term holding may not outperform inflation, or even bank deposits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779e428a60d236481d8add0ea65957ff\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The conclusion seems clear at a glance. If you want to invest for a long time, just choose ETFs or industry funds in food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology, leisure services and other industries. This conclusion is also consistent with the general cognition of investors. The consumer and medical industries have always been fertile ground for bull stocks, such as Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600436\">Pien Tze Huang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>Wait, long-term holding has amazing yields.</p><p>The problem is that it is very misleading to calculate the annualized rate of return at any two points in time. The annualized rate of return of the range has two sources, one is valuation growth and the other is profit growth. Only by distinguishing the source of yield can we better distinguish the yield level of the industry.</p><p>By decomposing the annualized rate of return into profit contribution and P/E contribution, we can<b>It is found that between 2000 and 2020, the P/E contribution of most industries is negative, that is, in the past two decades, A shares as a whole have been in the valuation stage (from 69 times to 23 times), and the profit growth of the industry is largely offset by the shrinking valuation.</b></p><p>If only the profit contribution is considered, there will be a significant difference in the ranking of the industry, with banking (17.8%), food and beverage (15.5%), building materials (15.0%), real estate (14.9%), household appliances (13.2%), non-bank finance (12.3%), pharmaceutical biology (11.9%), electrical equipment (11.8%) and other industries ranking high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6efdda79042234acd08d733d6d1661fb\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Take the banking industry as an example, with an annualized profit contribution of 17.8%, which is worthy of being the most profitable industry, but the annualized rate of return in 20 years is only 7.2%, which is a quite mediocre level. The reason lies in the huge fluctuation of the P/E. At the end of 2000, the banking industry, as a high-growth industry, had a bright future with a profit ratio of 67 times. At the end of 2020, the P/E dropped to 7.2 times, and the sharp shrinking of valuation offset the contribution of earnings growth.</p><p>It also again shows the importance of buying at a reasonable valuation level. Even in industries with high profit growth, if the valuation level is too high when buying, the return of long-term holding will be very mediocre.</p><p><b>Footing in the present: Which industries are worth holding for the long term?</b></p><p>In the past two decades, China's economy has gone through a stage of rapid growth. Almost all industries have been growth industries, and the overall profit growth is considerable. However, in 2021, the economy has entered a new stage of transformation and upgrading, and industries have begun to differentiate. Some industries are no longer growing, some industries have slowed down, and some industries have promising future prospects.</p><p>The changes of the industry environment have made the reference significance of the annualized rate of return of the industry in the past two decades limited. Investment must face the future and explore investment objects from future high-growth industries.</p><p>According to the elimination method, the growth space of banking, building materials, real estate, steel, mining, nonferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries is limited, which can be included in the negative list and not considered at the industry level (individual stock investment is another matter).<b>In consumption upgrading, population aging, product<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Under the main development lines of carbon neutrality and carbon neutrality, food and beverage, non-bank finance (securities insurance), pharmaceutical biology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing, energy conservation, environmental protection, leisure and entertainment and other fields have broad prospects.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, on the premise of promising growth prospects, it is also necessary to evaluate the rationality of industry valuation to avoid high-price buying.</p><p>This paper takes the average P/E of the industry since 2016 as the benchmark P/E, and takes the ratio of the current P/E to the benchmark P/E as the valuation coefficient. The higher the valuation coefficient, the higher the industry valuation level. Take food and beverage as an example. The current P/E (20210531) is 51 times, the benchmark P/E is 33.7 times, and the valuation coefficient is as high as 151%. From the perspective of valuation, it is not a good buying point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9f3b240a5b6c98f701e659ce15542eb\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the valuation coefficient from low to high, the valuation level of machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, communication, media, electronics, non-bank finance, computer and other industries is still lower than the average; In contrast, food and beverage, leisure services and other industries, although long-term profit growth can be expected, the current valuation level is high, so investors need to wait patiently and buy after the valuation falls.</p><p><b>Typical Industry Analysis:</b><b>Pharmaceutical Biology</b></p><p>It should be noted that there will also be differentiation within the industry sector. For example, the automobile industry as a whole belongs to a cyclical industry, but the new energy vehicle sub-sector has high growth attributes; For example, the growth of household appliances and traditional household appliances has slowed down, but the smart home electronic sector has a high growth potential, typically such as sweeping the floor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>There is huge room for growth.</p><p>In the current market, the pharmaceutical industry has attracted much attention. This paper briefly analyzes the situation of various sub-industries of pharmaceutical biology for investors' decision-making reference.</p><p>We still decompose the annualized rate of return into P/E contribution and profit contribution, focusing on profit contribution. From the perspective of profit contribution, from 2010 to 2020, the medical service industry performed amazing, with an annualized rate of return as high as 21.1%; Medical devices followed closely at 18.6%; It is followed by the biological products and pharmaceutical commercial sub-segments; In contrast, the performance of traditional Chinese medicine and chemical medicine sectors is very mediocre.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/808c45e3f492c33ea2a18f5fb1cffde8\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Taking stock of 18 medical stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan, the compound growth rate of net profit in the past five and ten years has generally been above 20%, and some can even remain above 40%, which once again shows that profit growth is the soil for producing bull stocks. From the perspective of sub-industry distribution, there are 7 companies in the biological products sub-sector, 5 in the medical service sector, 3 in the medical device sector, 2 in the traditional Chinese medicine sector, and only 1 in the chemical drug sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72997ca352fd1ab42ff9d1437c4d392c\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of profit growth, the sub-sectors of medical services, medical devices and biological products are the first choice. What is the current valuation level of each sector?</p><p>Compared with the average P/E since 2016, the valuation coefficient (current P/E/average P/E) of the medical device sub-sector is only 52%, followed by pharmaceutical commerce (84%), medical services (101%), and biological products (104%). Following, overall, they are at a relatively reasonable level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c670a9882d584a69346483c91ecba1b8\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Enlightenment for Investors</b></p><p>Value investment emphasizes buying and holding for a long time, but listed companies have their own development cycle. Some companies can improve for a long time, but most companies slowly become mediocre, and their end is death. If investors can't tell the difference, long-term holdings can easily fall into the value trap.</p><p>Therefore, selecting companies with growth potential and dynamically evaluating their competitiveness changes constitutes a threshold for long-term shareholding, and many investors are blocked out. Therefore, Buffett suggested that ordinary investors invest in the index, diversify the risks of individual stocks by holding the index, and enjoy the overall growth benefits of listed companies.</p><p>In fact, there is a better way, which is to select industries.</p><p>At present, CSI Index Company has compiled more than 200 A-share sub-industry indexes, many of which have corresponding ETFs and fund products. Based on their own circle of competence, investors choose several long-lived industries with development potential, and buy industry indexes (industry funds or ETFs) at a reasonable level of valuation. Long-term holding has a high probability of outperforming the market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-I7-UVkVIAHNs4H19twnQA\">苏宁金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718d9d0cee89dacb8ae3664167fe24e6","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-I7-UVkVIAHNs4H19twnQA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124114752","content_text":"近期股市热度再起，很多人再次燃起股市投资的兴趣。经历了春节后的市场下跌及随后的反转，越来越多的投资者开始体会到市场短期波动的无常和不可测，认识到长期持有的必要性。\nA股投资，既可投资个股，也可投资行业（行业基金/ETF）。相比个股，行业的波动性更低，且长期持有没有价值清零风险。立足当下市场环境，A股哪些行业值得长期持有呢？\n过去二十年，投资哪个行业最赚钱？\n我们先来回顾下历史表现。假定一个投资者自2000年末开始投资行业指数，持有至2020年末，结果会怎样呢？\n好消息是，所有行业的年化收益率均为正值；坏消息是，仅有四个行业的年化收益率超过10%，分别是食品饮料（15.9%）、家用电器（11.3%）、医药生物（10.3%）和休闲服务（10.2%）。若投资者选错了行业，如通信（1.7%）、钢铁（1.7%）、公用事业（1.4%）、建筑装饰（1.3%）、采掘（1.1%）、纺织服装（0.5%）等，长期持有未必能跑赢通胀，甚至跑不赢银行存款。\n\n结论似乎一目了然，若要长期投资，选择食品饮料、家用电器、医药生物、休闲服务等行业的ETF或行业基金就好了。这个结论与投资者的普遍认知也是相符的，消费、医疗行业一向是产生牛股的沃土，典型如茅台、五粮液、片仔癀、恒瑞医药等，长期拿着都有惊人的收益率。\n问题是，任意拿两个时点来计算年化收益率，具有很大的误导性。区间的年化收益率有两个来源，一是估值增长，一是盈利增长。只有区分收益率来源，才能更好地辨别行业的收益率水平。\n通过把年化收益率分解为盈利贡献和市盈率贡献，可以发现2000-2020年间，绝大多数行业的市盈率贡献都是负的，即过去二十年A股整体处于杀估值阶段（从69倍降至23倍），行业的盈利增长很大程度上被估值缩水对冲掉了。\n若仅考虑盈利贡献，行业排名位次会出现显著差异，银行（17.8%）、食品饮料（15.5%）、建筑材料（15.0%）、房地产（14.9%）、家用电器（13.2%）、非银金融（12.3%）、医药生物（11.9%）、电气设备（11.8%）等行业排名靠前。\n\n以银行业为例，年化盈利贡献高达17.8%，不愧为最赚钱的行业，但二十年里年化收益率仅为7.2%，是一个相当平庸的水平。原因在于市盈率的巨大波动，2000年末，银行业作为高增长行业，前景光明，盈率高达67倍，2020年末，市盈率降至7.2倍，估值的大幅缩水抵消了盈利增长的贡献。\n这也再次表明以合理估值水平买入的重要性。即便是盈利高增长的行业，若买入时估值水平太高，长期持有的回报也会非常平庸。\n立足当下：哪些行业值得长期持有？\n过去二十年，中国经济走过高速增长阶段，几乎所有行业都曾是成长性行业，整体盈利增长相当可观。但步入2021年，经济步入转型升级的新阶段，行业开始分化，有些行业不再增长，有些行业增长放缓，也有些行业未来前景可期。\n行业大环境的变化，让行业过去二十年的年化收益率参考意义有限，投资必须面向未来，从未来的高增长行业中发掘投资对象。\n用排除法来看，银行、建筑材料、地产、钢铁、采掘、有色、农林牧渔等行业增长空间有限，可纳入负面清单，在行业层面不予考虑（个股投资是另一回事）。在消费升级、人口老龄化、产品智能化、碳中和等发展主线下，食品饮料、非银金融（券商保险）、医药生物、智能制造、节能环保、休闲娱乐等领域前景广阔。\n如前所述，在增长前景看好的前提下，还要评估行业估值的合理性，以避免高价买入。\n本文以2016年以来的行业平均市盈率为基准市盈率，取当前市盈率与基准市盈率的比值为估值系数，估值系数越高，代表行业估值水平越高。以食品饮料为例，当前市盈率（20210531）为51倍，基准市盈率为33.7倍，估值系数高达151%，从估值的角度看，并非好的买点。\n\n按照估值系数从低到高排序，机械设备、国防军工、通信、传媒、电子、非银金融、计算机等行业估值水平仍低于平均值；相比之下，食品饮料、休闲服务等行业，虽然长期盈利增长可期，但当前估值水平较高，投资者需耐心等待，估值回落后再行买入。\n典型行业分析：医药生物\n需要注意的是，行业板块内部也会存在分化。比如汽车行业，整体属于周期性行业，但新能源汽车子板块则具有高成长属性；比如家用电器，传统家电增长放缓，但智能家电子板块则有很高的成长性，典型如扫地机器人，成长空间巨大。\n在当前市场中，医药行业备受关注，本文简单剖析下医药生物各个子行业的情况，供投资者决策参考。\n我们依旧把年化收益率分解为市盈率贡献和盈利贡献，着重看盈利贡献。站在盈利贡献的视角，2010-2020年间，医疗服务业表现惊艳，年化收益率高达21.1%；医疗器械紧跟其后，为18.6%；其后是生物制品、医药商业子板块；相比之下，中药、化学药板块表现非常平庸。\n\n盘点千亿市值以上的18只医疗股，过去五年、十年净利润复合增速普遍在20%以上，有些甚至能保持在40%以上，再次表明盈利增长才是产生牛股的土壤。从子行业分布看，生物制品子板块7家公司，医疗服务板块5家，医疗器械板块3家，中药2家，化学药仅1家上榜。\n\n从盈利增长的角度看，医疗服务、医疗器械、生物制品子板块是首选，那当前各板块的估值水平如何呢？\n与2016年以来平均市盈率相比，医疗器械子板块估值系数（当前市盈率/平均市盈率）仅为52%，医药商业（84%）、医疗服务（101%）、生物制品（104%）紧随其后，整体而言，都处于相对合理的水平。\n\n给投资者的启示\n价值投资强调买入并长期持有，但上市公司有自身的发展周期，有些公司能长期向好，但多数公司都慢慢变得平庸，其终局便是走向死亡。投资者若不能加以分辨，长期持股很容易陷入价值陷阱。\n所以，挑选有成长潜力的公司并动态评估其竞争力变化，便构成了长期持股的一道门槛，很多投资者被挡在门外。于是，巴菲特建议普通投资者定投指数，通过持有指数来分散个股风险，享受上市公司整体增长的收益。\n其实，还有一个更好的办法，就是精选行业。\n当前，中证指数公司已编制了200多个A股细分行业指数，很多指数都有对应的ETF和基金产品，投资者基于自己的能力圈，挑选几个有发展潜力的长寿行业，在估值合理的水平买入行业指数（行业基金或ETF），长期持有大概率能够跑赢市场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115791969,"gmtCreate":1623029682851,"gmtModify":1704194574544,"author":{"id":"3565953554482189","authorId":"3565953554482189","name":"Mr_Bright","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565953554482189","idStr":"3565953554482189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115791969","repostId":"1199098634","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372174523,"gmtCreate":1619188403862,"gmtModify":1704721040293,"author":{"id":"3565953554482189","authorId":"3565953554482189","name":"Mr_Bright","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565953554482189","idStr":"3565953554482189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gd","listText":"Gd","text":"Gd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372174523","repostId":"1182095018","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":115791969,"gmtCreate":1623029682851,"gmtModify":1704194574544,"author":{"id":"3565953554482189","authorId":"3565953554482189","name":"Mr_Bright","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565953554482189","authorIdStr":"3565953554482189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115791969","repostId":"1199098634","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199098634","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623028817,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199098634?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 09:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Opening: Hang Seng Index opens up 0.23%, Hang Seng Tech Index rises 0.13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199098634","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月7日，恒生指数开盘上涨67.5点，涨幅0.23%，报28985.6点；国企指数开盘上涨26.34点，涨幅0.24%，报10831.98点；红筹指数开盘上涨12.41点，涨幅0.3%，报4113.2","content":"<p>On June 7th, the Hang Seng Index opened up 67.5 points, or 0.23%, to 28,985.6 points; The State-owned Enterprises Index opened up 26.34 points, or 0.24%, to 10,831.98 points; The red-chip index opened up 12.41 points, or 0.3%, to 4113.27 points; The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.13%.</p><p>Big tech stocks are mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-SW</a>Opened 3.03% higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Opened 1.68% higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>Small gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD Group-SW</a>down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">Netease-S</a>Down;</p><p>Pharmaceutical stocks and biotechnology stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03692\">Hansen Pharma</a>up 4.34%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06185\">CanSino Bio-B</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02359\">WuXi AppTec</a>up 1.76%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01177\">China Biopharmaceuticals</a>up 1.16%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00968\">Xinyi Light Energy</a>up 2.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD Shares</a>up 1.09%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">Country Garden Services</a>It rose 0.6%, and was officially included in the Hang Seng Index today;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02158\">Yidu Technology</a>up 2.12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02160\">Xintong Medical-B</a>up 1.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">NovoHealth-B</a>Slightly dropped, the transfer into Hong Kong Stock Connect took effect today;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00288\">WH GROUP</a>Over 10%, the company plans to repurchase 1.9 billion shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01134\">Hengfa Optics</a>Open nearly 15% higher and propose to place up to 50 million shares at a premium of 29.03%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: Hang Seng Index opens up 0.23%, Hang Seng Tech Index rises 0.13%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: Hang Seng Index opens up 0.23%, Hang Seng Tech Index rises 0.13%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-07 09:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 7th, the Hang Seng Index opened up 67.5 points, or 0.23%, to 28,985.6 points; The State-owned Enterprises Index opened up 26.34 points, or 0.24%, to 10,831.98 points; The red-chip index opened up 12.41 points, or 0.3%, to 4113.27 points; The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.13%.</p><p>Big tech stocks are mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-SW</a>Opened 3.03% higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Opened 1.68% higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>Small gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD Group-SW</a>down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">Netease-S</a>Down;</p><p>Pharmaceutical stocks and biotechnology stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03692\">Hansen Pharma</a>up 4.34%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06185\">CanSino Bio-B</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02359\">WuXi AppTec</a>up 1.76%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01177\">China Biopharmaceuticals</a>up 1.16%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00968\">Xinyi Light Energy</a>up 2.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD Shares</a>up 1.09%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">Country Garden Services</a>It rose 0.6%, and was officially included in the Hang Seng Index today;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02158\">Yidu Technology</a>up 2.12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02160\">Xintong Medical-B</a>up 1.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">NovoHealth-B</a>Slightly dropped, the transfer into Hong Kong Stock Connect took effect today;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00288\">WH GROUP</a>Over 10%, the company plans to repurchase 1.9 billion shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01134\">Hengfa Optics</a>Open nearly 15% higher and propose to place up to 50 million shares at a premium of 29.03%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSCCI":"红筹指数","02359":"药明康德","06185":"康希诺生物","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02160":"微创心通-B","HSCEI":"国企指数","02833":"恒指ETF","06606":"诺辉健康","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199098634","content_text":"6月7日，恒生指数开盘上涨67.5点，涨幅0.23%，报28985.6点；国企指数开盘上涨26.34点，涨幅0.24%，报10831.98点；红筹指数开盘上涨12.41点，涨幅0.3%，报4113.27点；恒生科技指数涨0.13%。大型科技股涨跌不一，哔哩哔哩-SW高开3.03%，百度集团-SW高开1.68%，阿里巴巴-SW、小米集团-W小幅上涨，京东集团-SW跌1.69%，快手-W、网易-S下跌；医药股与生物技术股拉升，翰森制药涨4.34%，康希诺生物-B涨超4%，药明康德涨1.76%，中国生物制药涨1.16%；信义光能涨2.9%，比亚迪股份涨1.09%，碧桂园服务涨0.6%，今日起正式被纳入恒生指数；医渡科技涨2.12%、心通医疗-B涨1.36%、诺辉健康-B微跌，调入港股通今日生效；万洲国际涨超10%，公司拟回购19亿股股份。恒发光学高开近15% 拟溢价29.03%配售最多5000万股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"06185":0.9,"02160":0.9,"06606":0.9,"02833":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"02359":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"HSImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115798611,"gmtCreate":1623029725833,"gmtModify":1704194576351,"author":{"id":"3565953554482189","authorId":"3565953554482189","name":"Mr_Bright","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565953554482189","authorIdStr":"3565953554482189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115798611","repostId":"1124114752","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124114752","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623024479,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124114752?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 08:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"When investing in A shares, which industry is the most profitable to hold for a long time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124114752","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"近期股市热度再起，很多人再次燃起股市投资的兴趣。经历了春节后的市场下跌及随后的反转，越来越多的投资者开始体会到市场短期波动的无常和不可测，认识到长期持有的必要性。\nA股投资，既可投资个股，也可投资行业","content":"<p>Recently, the stock market has been hot again, and many people have once again ignited their interest in stock market investment. After the market decline and subsequent reversal after the Spring Festival, more and more investors began to realize the impermanence and unpredictability of short-term market fluctuations, and realized the necessity of long-term holding.</p><p>A-share investment can be invested in individual stocks or industries (industry funds/ETFs). Compared with individual stocks, the volatility of the industry is lower, and there is no risk of value clearance when held for a long time. Based on the current market environment, which industries of A shares are worth holding for a long time?</p><p><b>Which industry has been the most profitable to invest in over the past two decades?</b></p><p>Let's first review the historical performance. Suppose an investor invested in industry indexes since the end of 2000 and held them until the end of 2020. What will happen?</p><p>The good news is that annualized yields are positive across all sectors; The bad news is,<b>Only four industries have an annualized yield of more than 10%, namely food and beverage (15.9%), household appliances (11.3%), pharmaceutical and biological (10.3%) and leisure services (10.2%).</b>If investors choose the wrong industry, such as communications (1.7%), steel (1.7%), public utilities (1.4%), architectural decoration (1.3%), mining (1.1%), textiles and clothing (0.5%), etc., long-term holding may not outperform inflation, or even bank deposits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779e428a60d236481d8add0ea65957ff\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The conclusion seems clear at a glance. If you want to invest for a long time, just choose ETFs or industry funds in food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology, leisure services and other industries. This conclusion is also consistent with the general cognition of investors. The consumer and medical industries have always been fertile ground for bull stocks, such as Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600436\">Pien Tze Huang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>Wait, long-term holding has amazing yields.</p><p>The problem is that it is very misleading to calculate the annualized rate of return at any two points in time. The annualized rate of return of the range has two sources, one is valuation growth and the other is profit growth. Only by distinguishing the source of yield can we better distinguish the yield level of the industry.</p><p>By decomposing the annualized rate of return into profit contribution and P/E contribution, we can<b>It is found that between 2000 and 2020, the P/E contribution of most industries is negative, that is, in the past two decades, A shares as a whole have been in the valuation stage (from 69 times to 23 times), and the profit growth of the industry is largely offset by the shrinking valuation.</b></p><p>If only the profit contribution is considered, there will be a significant difference in the ranking of the industry, with banking (17.8%), food and beverage (15.5%), building materials (15.0%), real estate (14.9%), household appliances (13.2%), non-bank finance (12.3%), pharmaceutical biology (11.9%), electrical equipment (11.8%) and other industries ranking high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6efdda79042234acd08d733d6d1661fb\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Take the banking industry as an example, with an annualized profit contribution of 17.8%, which is worthy of being the most profitable industry, but the annualized rate of return in 20 years is only 7.2%, which is a quite mediocre level. The reason lies in the huge fluctuation of the P/E. At the end of 2000, the banking industry, as a high-growth industry, had a bright future with a profit ratio of 67 times. At the end of 2020, the P/E dropped to 7.2 times, and the sharp shrinking of valuation offset the contribution of earnings growth.</p><p>It also again shows the importance of buying at a reasonable valuation level. Even in industries with high profit growth, if the valuation level is too high when buying, the return of long-term holding will be very mediocre.</p><p><b>Footing in the present: Which industries are worth holding for the long term?</b></p><p>In the past two decades, China's economy has gone through a stage of rapid growth. Almost all industries have been growth industries, and the overall profit growth is considerable. However, in 2021, the economy has entered a new stage of transformation and upgrading, and industries have begun to differentiate. Some industries are no longer growing, some industries have slowed down, and some industries have promising future prospects.</p><p>The changes of the industry environment have made the reference significance of the annualized rate of return of the industry in the past two decades limited. Investment must face the future and explore investment objects from future high-growth industries.</p><p>According to the elimination method, the growth space of banking, building materials, real estate, steel, mining, nonferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries is limited, which can be included in the negative list and not considered at the industry level (individual stock investment is another matter).<b>In consumption upgrading, population aging, product<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Under the main development lines of carbon neutrality and carbon neutrality, food and beverage, non-bank finance (securities insurance), pharmaceutical biology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing, energy conservation, environmental protection, leisure and entertainment and other fields have broad prospects.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, on the premise of promising growth prospects, it is also necessary to evaluate the rationality of industry valuation to avoid high-price buying.</p><p>This paper takes the average P/E of the industry since 2016 as the benchmark P/E, and takes the ratio of the current P/E to the benchmark P/E as the valuation coefficient. The higher the valuation coefficient, the higher the industry valuation level. Take food and beverage as an example. The current P/E (20210531) is 51 times, the benchmark P/E is 33.7 times, and the valuation coefficient is as high as 151%. From the perspective of valuation, it is not a good buying point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9f3b240a5b6c98f701e659ce15542eb\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the valuation coefficient from low to high, the valuation level of machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, communication, media, electronics, non-bank finance, computer and other industries is still lower than the average; In contrast, food and beverage, leisure services and other industries, although long-term profit growth can be expected, the current valuation level is high, so investors need to wait patiently and buy after the valuation falls.</p><p><b>Typical Industry Analysis:</b><b>Pharmaceutical Biology</b></p><p>It should be noted that there will also be differentiation within the industry sector. For example, the automobile industry as a whole belongs to a cyclical industry, but the new energy vehicle sub-sector has high growth attributes; For example, the growth of household appliances and traditional household appliances has slowed down, but the smart home electronic sector has a high growth potential, typically such as sweeping the floor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>There is huge room for growth.</p><p>In the current market, the pharmaceutical industry has attracted much attention. This paper briefly analyzes the situation of various sub-industries of pharmaceutical biology for investors' decision-making reference.</p><p>We still decompose the annualized rate of return into P/E contribution and profit contribution, focusing on profit contribution. From the perspective of profit contribution, from 2010 to 2020, the medical service industry performed amazing, with an annualized rate of return as high as 21.1%; Medical devices followed closely at 18.6%; It is followed by the biological products and pharmaceutical commercial sub-segments; In contrast, the performance of traditional Chinese medicine and chemical medicine sectors is very mediocre.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/808c45e3f492c33ea2a18f5fb1cffde8\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Taking stock of 18 medical stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan, the compound growth rate of net profit in the past five and ten years has generally been above 20%, and some can even remain above 40%, which once again shows that profit growth is the soil for producing bull stocks. From the perspective of sub-industry distribution, there are 7 companies in the biological products sub-sector, 5 in the medical service sector, 3 in the medical device sector, 2 in the traditional Chinese medicine sector, and only 1 in the chemical drug sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72997ca352fd1ab42ff9d1437c4d392c\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of profit growth, the sub-sectors of medical services, medical devices and biological products are the first choice. What is the current valuation level of each sector?</p><p>Compared with the average P/E since 2016, the valuation coefficient (current P/E/average P/E) of the medical device sub-sector is only 52%, followed by pharmaceutical commerce (84%), medical services (101%), and biological products (104%). Following, overall, they are at a relatively reasonable level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c670a9882d584a69346483c91ecba1b8\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Enlightenment for Investors</b></p><p>Value investment emphasizes buying and holding for a long time, but listed companies have their own development cycle. Some companies can improve for a long time, but most companies slowly become mediocre, and their end is death. If investors can't tell the difference, long-term holdings can easily fall into the value trap.</p><p>Therefore, selecting companies with growth potential and dynamically evaluating their competitiveness changes constitutes a threshold for long-term shareholding, and many investors are blocked out. Therefore, Buffett suggested that ordinary investors invest in the index, diversify the risks of individual stocks by holding the index, and enjoy the overall growth benefits of listed companies.</p><p>In fact, there is a better way, which is to select industries.</p><p>At present, CSI Index Company has compiled more than 200 A-share sub-industry indexes, many of which have corresponding ETFs and fund products. Based on their own circle of competence, investors choose several long-lived industries with development potential, and buy industry indexes (industry funds or ETFs) at a reasonable level of valuation. Long-term holding has a high probability of outperforming the market.</p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When investing in A shares, which industry is the most profitable to hold for a long time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen investing in A shares, which industry is the most profitable to hold for a long time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">苏宁金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 08:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, the stock market has been hot again, and many people have once again ignited their interest in stock market investment. After the market decline and subsequent reversal after the Spring Festival, more and more investors began to realize the impermanence and unpredictability of short-term market fluctuations, and realized the necessity of long-term holding.</p><p>A-share investment can be invested in individual stocks or industries (industry funds/ETFs). Compared with individual stocks, the volatility of the industry is lower, and there is no risk of value clearance when held for a long time. Based on the current market environment, which industries of A shares are worth holding for a long time?</p><p><b>Which industry has been the most profitable to invest in over the past two decades?</b></p><p>Let's first review the historical performance. Suppose an investor invested in industry indexes since the end of 2000 and held them until the end of 2020. What will happen?</p><p>The good news is that annualized yields are positive across all sectors; The bad news is,<b>Only four industries have an annualized yield of more than 10%, namely food and beverage (15.9%), household appliances (11.3%), pharmaceutical and biological (10.3%) and leisure services (10.2%).</b>If investors choose the wrong industry, such as communications (1.7%), steel (1.7%), public utilities (1.4%), architectural decoration (1.3%), mining (1.1%), textiles and clothing (0.5%), etc., long-term holding may not outperform inflation, or even bank deposits.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779e428a60d236481d8add0ea65957ff\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The conclusion seems clear at a glance. If you want to invest for a long time, just choose ETFs or industry funds in food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology, leisure services and other industries. This conclusion is also consistent with the general cognition of investors. The consumer and medical industries have always been fertile ground for bull stocks, such as Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600436\">Pien Tze Huang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">Hengrui Medicine</a>Wait, long-term holding has amazing yields.</p><p>The problem is that it is very misleading to calculate the annualized rate of return at any two points in time. The annualized rate of return of the range has two sources, one is valuation growth and the other is profit growth. Only by distinguishing the source of yield can we better distinguish the yield level of the industry.</p><p>By decomposing the annualized rate of return into profit contribution and P/E contribution, we can<b>It is found that between 2000 and 2020, the P/E contribution of most industries is negative, that is, in the past two decades, A shares as a whole have been in the valuation stage (from 69 times to 23 times), and the profit growth of the industry is largely offset by the shrinking valuation.</b></p><p>If only the profit contribution is considered, there will be a significant difference in the ranking of the industry, with banking (17.8%), food and beverage (15.5%), building materials (15.0%), real estate (14.9%), household appliances (13.2%), non-bank finance (12.3%), pharmaceutical biology (11.9%), electrical equipment (11.8%) and other industries ranking high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6efdda79042234acd08d733d6d1661fb\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Take the banking industry as an example, with an annualized profit contribution of 17.8%, which is worthy of being the most profitable industry, but the annualized rate of return in 20 years is only 7.2%, which is a quite mediocre level. The reason lies in the huge fluctuation of the P/E. At the end of 2000, the banking industry, as a high-growth industry, had a bright future with a profit ratio of 67 times. At the end of 2020, the P/E dropped to 7.2 times, and the sharp shrinking of valuation offset the contribution of earnings growth.</p><p>It also again shows the importance of buying at a reasonable valuation level. Even in industries with high profit growth, if the valuation level is too high when buying, the return of long-term holding will be very mediocre.</p><p><b>Footing in the present: Which industries are worth holding for the long term?</b></p><p>In the past two decades, China's economy has gone through a stage of rapid growth. Almost all industries have been growth industries, and the overall profit growth is considerable. However, in 2021, the economy has entered a new stage of transformation and upgrading, and industries have begun to differentiate. Some industries are no longer growing, some industries have slowed down, and some industries have promising future prospects.</p><p>The changes of the industry environment have made the reference significance of the annualized rate of return of the industry in the past two decades limited. Investment must face the future and explore investment objects from future high-growth industries.</p><p>According to the elimination method, the growth space of banking, building materials, real estate, steel, mining, nonferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries is limited, which can be included in the negative list and not considered at the industry level (individual stock investment is another matter).<b>In consumption upgrading, population aging, product<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Under the main development lines of carbon neutrality and carbon neutrality, food and beverage, non-bank finance (securities insurance), pharmaceutical biology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing, energy conservation, environmental protection, leisure and entertainment and other fields have broad prospects.</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, on the premise of promising growth prospects, it is also necessary to evaluate the rationality of industry valuation to avoid high-price buying.</p><p>This paper takes the average P/E of the industry since 2016 as the benchmark P/E, and takes the ratio of the current P/E to the benchmark P/E as the valuation coefficient. The higher the valuation coefficient, the higher the industry valuation level. Take food and beverage as an example. The current P/E (20210531) is 51 times, the benchmark P/E is 33.7 times, and the valuation coefficient is as high as 151%. From the perspective of valuation, it is not a good buying point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9f3b240a5b6c98f701e659ce15542eb\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the valuation coefficient from low to high, the valuation level of machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, communication, media, electronics, non-bank finance, computer and other industries is still lower than the average; In contrast, food and beverage, leisure services and other industries, although long-term profit growth can be expected, the current valuation level is high, so investors need to wait patiently and buy after the valuation falls.</p><p><b>Typical Industry Analysis:</b><b>Pharmaceutical Biology</b></p><p>It should be noted that there will also be differentiation within the industry sector. For example, the automobile industry as a whole belongs to a cyclical industry, but the new energy vehicle sub-sector has high growth attributes; For example, the growth of household appliances and traditional household appliances has slowed down, but the smart home electronic sector has a high growth potential, typically such as sweeping the floor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>There is huge room for growth.</p><p>In the current market, the pharmaceutical industry has attracted much attention. This paper briefly analyzes the situation of various sub-industries of pharmaceutical biology for investors' decision-making reference.</p><p>We still decompose the annualized rate of return into P/E contribution and profit contribution, focusing on profit contribution. From the perspective of profit contribution, from 2010 to 2020, the medical service industry performed amazing, with an annualized rate of return as high as 21.1%; Medical devices followed closely at 18.6%; It is followed by the biological products and pharmaceutical commercial sub-segments; In contrast, the performance of traditional Chinese medicine and chemical medicine sectors is very mediocre.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/808c45e3f492c33ea2a18f5fb1cffde8\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Taking stock of 18 medical stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan, the compound growth rate of net profit in the past five and ten years has generally been above 20%, and some can even remain above 40%, which once again shows that profit growth is the soil for producing bull stocks. From the perspective of sub-industry distribution, there are 7 companies in the biological products sub-sector, 5 in the medical service sector, 3 in the medical device sector, 2 in the traditional Chinese medicine sector, and only 1 in the chemical drug sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72997ca352fd1ab42ff9d1437c4d392c\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the perspective of profit growth, the sub-sectors of medical services, medical devices and biological products are the first choice. What is the current valuation level of each sector?</p><p>Compared with the average P/E since 2016, the valuation coefficient (current P/E/average P/E) of the medical device sub-sector is only 52%, followed by pharmaceutical commerce (84%), medical services (101%), and biological products (104%). Following, overall, they are at a relatively reasonable level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c670a9882d584a69346483c91ecba1b8\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Enlightenment for Investors</b></p><p>Value investment emphasizes buying and holding for a long time, but listed companies have their own development cycle. Some companies can improve for a long time, but most companies slowly become mediocre, and their end is death. If investors can't tell the difference, long-term holdings can easily fall into the value trap.</p><p>Therefore, selecting companies with growth potential and dynamically evaluating their competitiveness changes constitutes a threshold for long-term shareholding, and many investors are blocked out. Therefore, Buffett suggested that ordinary investors invest in the index, diversify the risks of individual stocks by holding the index, and enjoy the overall growth benefits of listed companies.</p><p>In fact, there is a better way, which is to select industries.</p><p>At present, CSI Index Company has compiled more than 200 A-share sub-industry indexes, many of which have corresponding ETFs and fund products. Based on their own circle of competence, investors choose several long-lived industries with development potential, and buy industry indexes (industry funds or ETFs) at a reasonable level of valuation. Long-term holding has a high probability of outperforming the market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-I7-UVkVIAHNs4H19twnQA\">苏宁金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718d9d0cee89dacb8ae3664167fe24e6","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-I7-UVkVIAHNs4H19twnQA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124114752","content_text":"近期股市热度再起，很多人再次燃起股市投资的兴趣。经历了春节后的市场下跌及随后的反转，越来越多的投资者开始体会到市场短期波动的无常和不可测，认识到长期持有的必要性。\nA股投资，既可投资个股，也可投资行业（行业基金/ETF）。相比个股，行业的波动性更低，且长期持有没有价值清零风险。立足当下市场环境，A股哪些行业值得长期持有呢？\n过去二十年，投资哪个行业最赚钱？\n我们先来回顾下历史表现。假定一个投资者自2000年末开始投资行业指数，持有至2020年末，结果会怎样呢？\n好消息是，所有行业的年化收益率均为正值；坏消息是，仅有四个行业的年化收益率超过10%，分别是食品饮料（15.9%）、家用电器（11.3%）、医药生物（10.3%）和休闲服务（10.2%）。若投资者选错了行业，如通信（1.7%）、钢铁（1.7%）、公用事业（1.4%）、建筑装饰（1.3%）、采掘（1.1%）、纺织服装（0.5%）等，长期持有未必能跑赢通胀，甚至跑不赢银行存款。\n\n结论似乎一目了然，若要长期投资，选择食品饮料、家用电器、医药生物、休闲服务等行业的ETF或行业基金就好了。这个结论与投资者的普遍认知也是相符的，消费、医疗行业一向是产生牛股的沃土，典型如茅台、五粮液、片仔癀、恒瑞医药等，长期拿着都有惊人的收益率。\n问题是，任意拿两个时点来计算年化收益率，具有很大的误导性。区间的年化收益率有两个来源，一是估值增长，一是盈利增长。只有区分收益率来源，才能更好地辨别行业的收益率水平。\n通过把年化收益率分解为盈利贡献和市盈率贡献，可以发现2000-2020年间，绝大多数行业的市盈率贡献都是负的，即过去二十年A股整体处于杀估值阶段（从69倍降至23倍），行业的盈利增长很大程度上被估值缩水对冲掉了。\n若仅考虑盈利贡献，行业排名位次会出现显著差异，银行（17.8%）、食品饮料（15.5%）、建筑材料（15.0%）、房地产（14.9%）、家用电器（13.2%）、非银金融（12.3%）、医药生物（11.9%）、电气设备（11.8%）等行业排名靠前。\n\n以银行业为例，年化盈利贡献高达17.8%，不愧为最赚钱的行业，但二十年里年化收益率仅为7.2%，是一个相当平庸的水平。原因在于市盈率的巨大波动，2000年末，银行业作为高增长行业，前景光明，盈率高达67倍，2020年末，市盈率降至7.2倍，估值的大幅缩水抵消了盈利增长的贡献。\n这也再次表明以合理估值水平买入的重要性。即便是盈利高增长的行业，若买入时估值水平太高，长期持有的回报也会非常平庸。\n立足当下：哪些行业值得长期持有？\n过去二十年，中国经济走过高速增长阶段，几乎所有行业都曾是成长性行业，整体盈利增长相当可观。但步入2021年，经济步入转型升级的新阶段，行业开始分化，有些行业不再增长，有些行业增长放缓，也有些行业未来前景可期。\n行业大环境的变化，让行业过去二十年的年化收益率参考意义有限，投资必须面向未来，从未来的高增长行业中发掘投资对象。\n用排除法来看，银行、建筑材料、地产、钢铁、采掘、有色、农林牧渔等行业增长空间有限，可纳入负面清单，在行业层面不予考虑（个股投资是另一回事）。在消费升级、人口老龄化、产品智能化、碳中和等发展主线下，食品饮料、非银金融（券商保险）、医药生物、智能制造、节能环保、休闲娱乐等领域前景广阔。\n如前所述，在增长前景看好的前提下，还要评估行业估值的合理性，以避免高价买入。\n本文以2016年以来的行业平均市盈率为基准市盈率，取当前市盈率与基准市盈率的比值为估值系数，估值系数越高，代表行业估值水平越高。以食品饮料为例，当前市盈率（20210531）为51倍，基准市盈率为33.7倍，估值系数高达151%，从估值的角度看，并非好的买点。\n\n按照估值系数从低到高排序，机械设备、国防军工、通信、传媒、电子、非银金融、计算机等行业估值水平仍低于平均值；相比之下，食品饮料、休闲服务等行业，虽然长期盈利增长可期，但当前估值水平较高，投资者需耐心等待，估值回落后再行买入。\n典型行业分析：医药生物\n需要注意的是，行业板块内部也会存在分化。比如汽车行业，整体属于周期性行业，但新能源汽车子板块则具有高成长属性；比如家用电器，传统家电增长放缓，但智能家电子板块则有很高的成长性，典型如扫地机器人，成长空间巨大。\n在当前市场中，医药行业备受关注，本文简单剖析下医药生物各个子行业的情况，供投资者决策参考。\n我们依旧把年化收益率分解为市盈率贡献和盈利贡献，着重看盈利贡献。站在盈利贡献的视角，2010-2020年间，医疗服务业表现惊艳，年化收益率高达21.1%；医疗器械紧跟其后，为18.6%；其后是生物制品、医药商业子板块；相比之下，中药、化学药板块表现非常平庸。\n\n盘点千亿市值以上的18只医疗股，过去五年、十年净利润复合增速普遍在20%以上，有些甚至能保持在40%以上，再次表明盈利增长才是产生牛股的土壤。从子行业分布看，生物制品子板块7家公司，医疗服务板块5家，医疗器械板块3家，中药2家，化学药仅1家上榜。\n\n从盈利增长的角度看，医疗服务、医疗器械、生物制品子板块是首选，那当前各板块的估值水平如何呢？\n与2016年以来平均市盈率相比，医疗器械子板块估值系数（当前市盈率/平均市盈率）仅为52%，医药商业（84%）、医疗服务（101%）、生物制品（104%）紧随其后，整体而言，都处于相对合理的水平。\n\n给投资者的启示\n价值投资强调买入并长期持有，但上市公司有自身的发展周期，有些公司能长期向好，但多数公司都慢慢变得平庸，其终局便是走向死亡。投资者若不能加以分辨，长期持股很容易陷入价值陷阱。\n所以，挑选有成长潜力的公司并动态评估其竞争力变化，便构成了长期持股的一道门槛，很多投资者被挡在门外。于是，巴菲特建议普通投资者定投指数，通过持有指数来分散个股风险，享受上市公司整体增长的收益。\n其实，还有一个更好的办法，就是精选行业。\n当前，中证指数公司已编制了200多个A股细分行业指数，很多指数都有对应的ETF和基金产品，投资者基于自己的能力圈，挑选几个有发展潜力的长寿行业，在估值合理的水平买入行业指数（行业基金或ETF），长期持有大概率能够跑赢市场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372174523,"gmtCreate":1619188403862,"gmtModify":1704721040293,"author":{"id":"3565953554482189","authorId":"3565953554482189","name":"Mr_Bright","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565953554482189","authorIdStr":"3565953554482189"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gd","listText":"Gd","text":"Gd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372174523","repostId":"1182095018","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
