Finvest personal page - To The Moon

Finvest

Finvest

No personal profile

27Follow

0Followers

3Topic

0Badge

2022-12-14

France

2022-12-10

England.

2022-12-05

Croatia

2022-12-01

England!

2022-01-01

[Miser] [OK]

Where Will Nvidia Stock Be By 2025?

2022-01-01

$Li Auto(LI)$[Strong]

2021-12-18

$Sea Ltd(SE)$Is it good time to buy now?

2021-12-17

[Strong]

5 Top Growth Stocks I'm Buying To Kick Off 2022

2021-06-13

Nice

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-12

Wow

How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy

2021-02-28

$100 by end of year.

How High Can Oil Really Go?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3566654636387294,"uuid":"3566654636387294","gmtCreate":1603727501048,"gmtModify":1614482119140,"name":"Finvest","pinyin":"finvest","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","hatId":"ca_profile_frame_Lm11L6","hatName":"","vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":27,"tweetSize":14,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":3,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.24","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.03%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.13","exceedPercentage":"80.06%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9921834917,"gmtCreate":1671023497540,"gmtModify":1676538477007,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"France","listText":"France","text":"France","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921834917","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929127871,"gmtCreate":1670630115193,"gmtModify":1676538406899,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"England.","listText":"England.","text":"England.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929127871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967912427,"gmtCreate":1670248166869,"gmtModify":1676538328774,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Croatia","listText":"Croatia","text":"Croatia","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967912427","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965106292,"gmtCreate":1669905213216,"gmtModify":1676538267209,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"England!","listText":"England!","text":"England!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965106292","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003546736,"gmtCreate":1641020898013,"gmtModify":1676533565753,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003546736","repostId":"1120814298","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120814298","pubTimestamp":1640953096,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120814298?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-31 20:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Nvidia Stock Be By 2025?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120814298","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA's software opportunity may not have been fully understood by bearish investors.Moreove","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>NVIDIA&#39;s software opportunity may not have been fully understood by bearish investors.</li><li>Moreover, it&#39;s so massive that even its CFO couldn&#39;t map out the exact scale of the company&#39;s opportunities.</li><li>We discuss why we think NVIDIA&#39;s software opportunity will be the critical driver for its stock price through 2025.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98932ac47ed24da594e1976f9fb2301a\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1015\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is one of the leading full-stack AI tech companies in our portfolio. Through CEO Jensen Huang&#39;s incredible leadership, the company is a leader in multiple fields. It has also built on its discrete GPU (dGPU) hardware leadership with its software stack through NVIDIA AI Enterprise. The company has also created the leading engine for metaverse developers, as NVIDIA aims to power the future of the next-gen computing platform. Moreover, NVIDIA&#39;s massive leadership in autonomous driving has also made it a critical player powering many leading EV makers and robotaxi operators&#39; autonomous driving platforms.</p><p>Bearish investors have often focused on NVIDIA&#39;s current valuation. NVDA stock&#39;s valuation is undoubtedly premium, trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 59.2x (peers median: 14x). Nevertheless, we think these investors may not have considered the massive market opportunities that NVDA has in the segments we mentioned earlier. Given that NVDA has such a clear and long runway ahead of it, it&#39;s more important to look well ahead into the next five to ten years. It would help us avoid looking at NVDA&#39;s expensive valuation through a narrow lens and deem it significantly overvalued.</p><p>This article will discuss the opportunities ahead for NVIDIA and address its runway to 2025.</p><p><b>Software Opportunities will Create Massive Revenue Streams</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e03db63c6076b22e30bfca05936fd581\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NVIDIA revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p>One of the central arguments against NVIDIA is its slowing revenue growth moving forward. Readers can observe that NVIDIA&#39;s revenue is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 30.1% through FY24. However, its YoY revenue growth is projected to reach 60% this year. Thus, it is a significant slowdown in growth over the next two years. Despite that, NVDA could still gain substantial operating leverage as it scales.</p><p>Notwithstanding the topline growth deceleration, its adjusted EBITDA margin is estimated to reach 41.4% in FY23, against just 33.8% in FY21. Therefore, we think it&#39;s critical for investors not to focus solely on NVDA&#39;s topline growth slowdown. Instead, they should also pay attention to its leverage.</p><p>We believe that its growth opportunities in the metaverse through its software stack will be critical in driving its profitability.Besides the massive TAM increase,the bottom line drivers could have been missed by bearish investors.</p><p>NVIDIA&#39;s hardware revenues mainly drive its EBITDA profitability currently. However, we believe that the company is in the early innings of capitalizing on the drivers from its software stack. We highlighted in a previous article that NVIDIA&#39;s software stack could add billions of dollars to its topline. Its AI Enterprise stack opportunity is estimated to be worth $5B. Moreover, we have not included the potential revenue from its metaverse engine, the NVIDIA Omniverse. The exact revenue opportunities from its software are hard to define. And most of them have yet to find their way to the company&#39;s topline. Despite that, we believe that these opportunities are massive, even just from its AI Enterprise stack.</p><p>Importantly, NVIDIA Omniverse is probably an even more significant opportunity. The argument is straightforward. NVIDIA &#34;layers&#34; its Omniverse strategy on top of its hardware stack. Moreover, the metaverse is not just limited to Roblox (RBLX), Apple (AAPL), or Meta Platforms (FB). Cathy Hackl, Chief Metaverse Officer and CEO of Futures Intelligence Group emphasized: &#34;Every brand and company will need a metaverse strategy.&#34; eMarketer reminded us that next year, &#34;tech firms and brands (will) put those plans into action. We&#39;ll get a glimpse into how the metaverse will look and function.&#34;</p><p>Therefore, we think NVDA has astutely positioned its formidable accelerated computing hardware stack to help these companies leverage its Omniverse engine. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted (edited):</p><blockquote>Omniverse is an engine for simulating the virtual world. There&#39;ll be many, many Omniverse worlds. Omniverse is designed to be able to create and simulate those worlds at a very large scale. We&#39;re in the business of technology infrastructure. So Omniverse is the engine, the algorithms, the mathematics, the computer graphics, the computer systems, the hardware, the system software. That&#39;s the focus of Omniverse. (DigiTimes)</blockquote><p>NVIDIA has created a symbiotic relationship with its software strategy by leveraging its hardware stack. When we think of full-stack, it&#39;s imperative that we consider this relationship. NVIDIA&#39;s software stack doesn&#39;t exist in a silo. The success of its hardware business underpins it. And, it&#39;s a highly successful hardware business with tremendous pricing power and adoption. Now, NVIDIA is taking many steps further by ensuring Omniverse becomes the core engine that companies use to develop their virtual worlds. But, why Omniverse? Surely there will be competing technologies with NVIDIA, who are also vying to be &#34;the metaverse engine.&#34;</p><p>It&#39;s also relatively simple. Huang has mentioned it at GTC, but maybe the bears haven&#39;t caught on. NVIDIA Omniverse will be so advanced and profound that it can even help model climate change for the entire Earth. NVIDIA will be building &#34;the world&#39;s most powerful AI supercomputerd edicated to predicting climate change.&#34; Therefore, NVIDIA aims to model a digital twin of the Earth. NVDA has not gotten there yet. But Huang believes that it will cross the line eventually. Huang emphasized (edited):</p><blockquote><i>We’re going to go build that digital twin of the Earth</i>. It’s going to be gigantic.<i>This is going to be the largest AI supercomputer on the planet</i>. All the technologies we’ve invented up to this moment are needed to make Earth-2 possible. I can’t imagine a greater or more important use. The simulation would be so precise it would need meter-level accuracy. If necessary, Nvidia would spend the money to offset the computing power used to run the simulation.<i>And, if we build the digital twin of the Earth, we will get the metaverse for free</i>. (VentureBeat)</blockquote><p>We think Huang aptly summed up the power of NVIDIA&#39;s amazing technology stack. Moreover, readers can imagine the incredible opportunity that NVDA would generate if it could build that digital twin of the Earth. That would give creators the ability to develop their virtual worlds based on NVIDIA&#39;s success in the Omniverse. Imagine the potential ubiquity of Omniverse as the go-to engine for many creators and companies building their virtual worlds. We cannot further underscore the tremendous monetization opportunities from its full-stack (hardware and software). And, we think we cannot easily model the estimates for NVDA&#39;s potential monetization since they are so novel. Even NVDA CFO Colette Kress stressed that she couldn&#39;t accurately forecast how large NVDA&#39;s TAM can become currently. But, she emphasized that &#34;there are big markets out there for us.&#34;</p><p><b>So, is NVDA Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e0425c0c60e18b365f0fdaad3ab279\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NVIDIA EV/Fwd EBITDA. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p>As mentioned earlier, NVIDIA stock is trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 59.2x, well above its 3Y mean of 43.9x. Moreover, its peers&#39; median is just 14x, therefore putting NVDA stock in &#34;significantly overvalued&#34; territory in comparison.</p><p>However, we believe that simply comparing NVDA stock&#39;s valuation against its peers would not have done the company justice. We believe that the current consensus estimates have not meaningfully accounted for its metaverse opportunity. Therefore, we believe the stock could be further re-rated when the revenue runway becomes clearer. With it, NVDA stock&#39;s fair value estimates could be further increased.</p><p>NVDA stock is currently trading above our fair value estimates, but not as significant as some bears have prognosticated. However, if you are more conservative and prefer to wait for a &#34;less risky&#34; entry point, you can.</p><p>But, if you have a firm conviction about CEO Jensen Huang &amp; Co.&#39;s execution and technological roadmap, then adding at the current price level doesn&#39;t seem unreasonable too.</p><p>We believe that NVIDIA has proven its mettle as one of the top AI tech companies globally. Moreover, it&#39;s only just getting started with its metaverse opportunity. While we can&#39;t tell you exactly where the stock will be in 2025, we believe it will continue to outperform the market in the next few years.</p><p>Therefore,<i>we revise our rating on NVDA stock to Buy</i>.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Nvidia Stock Be By 2025?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Nvidia Stock Be By 2025?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-31 20:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477371-nvidia-stock-2025><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNVIDIA's software opportunity may not have been fully understood by bearish investors.Moreover, it's so massive that even its CFO couldn't map out the exact scale of the company's opportunities...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477371-nvidia-stock-2025\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477371-nvidia-stock-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120814298","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA's software opportunity may not have been fully understood by bearish investors.Moreover, it's so massive that even its CFO couldn't map out the exact scale of the company's opportunities.We discuss why we think NVIDIA's software opportunity will be the critical driver for its stock price through 2025.Justin Sullivan/Getty Images NewsInvestment ThesisNVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is one of the leading full-stack AI tech companies in our portfolio. Through CEO Jensen Huang's incredible leadership, the company is a leader in multiple fields. It has also built on its discrete GPU (dGPU) hardware leadership with its software stack through NVIDIA AI Enterprise. The company has also created the leading engine for metaverse developers, as NVIDIA aims to power the future of the next-gen computing platform. Moreover, NVIDIA's massive leadership in autonomous driving has also made it a critical player powering many leading EV makers and robotaxi operators' autonomous driving platforms.Bearish investors have often focused on NVIDIA's current valuation. NVDA stock's valuation is undoubtedly premium, trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 59.2x (peers median: 14x). Nevertheless, we think these investors may not have considered the massive market opportunities that NVDA has in the segments we mentioned earlier. Given that NVDA has such a clear and long runway ahead of it, it's more important to look well ahead into the next five to ten years. It would help us avoid looking at NVDA's expensive valuation through a narrow lens and deem it significantly overvalued.This article will discuss the opportunities ahead for NVIDIA and address its runway to 2025.Software Opportunities will Create Massive Revenue StreamsNVIDIA revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQOne of the central arguments against NVIDIA is its slowing revenue growth moving forward. Readers can observe that NVIDIA's revenue is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 30.1% through FY24. However, its YoY revenue growth is projected to reach 60% this year. Thus, it is a significant slowdown in growth over the next two years. Despite that, NVDA could still gain substantial operating leverage as it scales.Notwithstanding the topline growth deceleration, its adjusted EBITDA margin is estimated to reach 41.4% in FY23, against just 33.8% in FY21. Therefore, we think it's critical for investors not to focus solely on NVDA's topline growth slowdown. Instead, they should also pay attention to its leverage.We believe that its growth opportunities in the metaverse through its software stack will be critical in driving its profitability.Besides the massive TAM increase,the bottom line drivers could have been missed by bearish investors.NVIDIA's hardware revenues mainly drive its EBITDA profitability currently. However, we believe that the company is in the early innings of capitalizing on the drivers from its software stack. We highlighted in a previous article that NVIDIA's software stack could add billions of dollars to its topline. Its AI Enterprise stack opportunity is estimated to be worth $5B. Moreover, we have not included the potential revenue from its metaverse engine, the NVIDIA Omniverse. The exact revenue opportunities from its software are hard to define. And most of them have yet to find their way to the company's topline. Despite that, we believe that these opportunities are massive, even just from its AI Enterprise stack.Importantly, NVIDIA Omniverse is probably an even more significant opportunity. The argument is straightforward. NVIDIA \"layers\" its Omniverse strategy on top of its hardware stack. Moreover, the metaverse is not just limited to Roblox (RBLX), Apple (AAPL), or Meta Platforms (FB). Cathy Hackl, Chief Metaverse Officer and CEO of Futures Intelligence Group emphasized: \"Every brand and company will need a metaverse strategy.\" eMarketer reminded us that next year, \"tech firms and brands (will) put those plans into action. We'll get a glimpse into how the metaverse will look and function.\"Therefore, we think NVDA has astutely positioned its formidable accelerated computing hardware stack to help these companies leverage its Omniverse engine. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted (edited):Omniverse is an engine for simulating the virtual world. There'll be many, many Omniverse worlds. Omniverse is designed to be able to create and simulate those worlds at a very large scale. We're in the business of technology infrastructure. So Omniverse is the engine, the algorithms, the mathematics, the computer graphics, the computer systems, the hardware, the system software. That's the focus of Omniverse. (DigiTimes)NVIDIA has created a symbiotic relationship with its software strategy by leveraging its hardware stack. When we think of full-stack, it's imperative that we consider this relationship. NVIDIA's software stack doesn't exist in a silo. The success of its hardware business underpins it. And, it's a highly successful hardware business with tremendous pricing power and adoption. Now, NVIDIA is taking many steps further by ensuring Omniverse becomes the core engine that companies use to develop their virtual worlds. But, why Omniverse? Surely there will be competing technologies with NVIDIA, who are also vying to be \"the metaverse engine.\"It's also relatively simple. Huang has mentioned it at GTC, but maybe the bears haven't caught on. NVIDIA Omniverse will be so advanced and profound that it can even help model climate change for the entire Earth. NVIDIA will be building \"the world's most powerful AI supercomputerd edicated to predicting climate change.\" Therefore, NVIDIA aims to model a digital twin of the Earth. NVDA has not gotten there yet. But Huang believes that it will cross the line eventually. Huang emphasized (edited):We’re going to go build that digital twin of the Earth. It’s going to be gigantic.This is going to be the largest AI supercomputer on the planet. All the technologies we’ve invented up to this moment are needed to make Earth-2 possible. I can’t imagine a greater or more important use. The simulation would be so precise it would need meter-level accuracy. If necessary, Nvidia would spend the money to offset the computing power used to run the simulation.And, if we build the digital twin of the Earth, we will get the metaverse for free. (VentureBeat)We think Huang aptly summed up the power of NVIDIA's amazing technology stack. Moreover, readers can imagine the incredible opportunity that NVDA would generate if it could build that digital twin of the Earth. That would give creators the ability to develop their virtual worlds based on NVIDIA's success in the Omniverse. Imagine the potential ubiquity of Omniverse as the go-to engine for many creators and companies building their virtual worlds. We cannot further underscore the tremendous monetization opportunities from its full-stack (hardware and software). And, we think we cannot easily model the estimates for NVDA's potential monetization since they are so novel. Even NVDA CFO Colette Kress stressed that she couldn't accurately forecast how large NVDA's TAM can become currently. But, she emphasized that \"there are big markets out there for us.\"So, is NVDA Stock a Buy Now?NVIDIA EV/Fwd EBITDA. Data source: S&P Capital IQAs mentioned earlier, NVIDIA stock is trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 59.2x, well above its 3Y mean of 43.9x. Moreover, its peers' median is just 14x, therefore putting NVDA stock in \"significantly overvalued\" territory in comparison.However, we believe that simply comparing NVDA stock's valuation against its peers would not have done the company justice. We believe that the current consensus estimates have not meaningfully accounted for its metaverse opportunity. Therefore, we believe the stock could be further re-rated when the revenue runway becomes clearer. With it, NVDA stock's fair value estimates could be further increased.NVDA stock is currently trading above our fair value estimates, but not as significant as some bears have prognosticated. However, if you are more conservative and prefer to wait for a \"less risky\" entry point, you can.But, if you have a firm conviction about CEO Jensen Huang & Co.'s execution and technological roadmap, then adding at the current price level doesn't seem unreasonable too.We believe that NVIDIA has proven its mettle as one of the top AI tech companies globally. Moreover, it's only just getting started with its metaverse opportunity. While we can't tell you exactly where the stock will be in 2025, we believe it will continue to outperform the market in the next few years.Therefore,we revise our rating on NVDA stock to Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003548265,"gmtCreate":1641020528582,"gmtModify":1676533565721,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LI\">$Li Auto(LI)$</a>[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LI\">$Li Auto(LI)$</a>[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"$Li Auto(LI)$[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003548265","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000970799,"gmtCreate":1639785218571,"gmtModify":1676533494352,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>Is it good time to buy now?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>Is it good time to buy now?","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$Is it good time to buy now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000970799","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000914733,"gmtCreate":1639723214503,"gmtModify":1676533493148,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000914733","repostId":"2191948858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2191948858","pubTimestamp":1639711307,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2191948858?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 11:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Top Growth Stocks I'm Buying To Kick Off 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191948858","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These five companies are still riding three secular growth trends.","content":"<p>After an incredible showing for growth stocks in 2020 -- in which many names doubled in value or more -- 2021 was unsurprisingly a much tougher go. Lapping massive growth from the first year of the pandemic, companies driving the digital economy forward were due for some pullbacks.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, the stock price is not always reflective of actual business momentum, and 2022 could have much better things in store for growth investors. Here are the top five companies I'm buying to kick off the new year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92b9b0af7623168f23c94f0ae0537293\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications</h2>\n<p>It's now been well over a year since <b>Zoom Video Communications </b>(NASDAQ:ZM) stock reached its all-time high. As of this writing, shares are down nearly 70% since the autumn of 2020.</p>\n<p>If you've been adding to your position on the way down like I have, Zoom has been nothing but a falling knife that continues to cut those that try to catch it. But at this point, trading for just 30 times trailing 12-month free cash flow to enterprise value, Zoom looks like an incredible long-term bargain. The company is still growing sales at a double-digit pace, it's wildly profitable, and it has $5.4 billion in cash and short-term investments and zero debt on its balance sheet.</p>\n<p>Cloud-based communications services are still disrupting the status quo in telecom (which is why <b>Twilio</b>&nbsp;is also still <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of my favorites), and sooner or later Zoom and peers will reverse course if they can sustain their business momentum.</p>\n<h2>2. Teladoc Health</h2>\n<p><b>Teladoc Health </b>(NYSE:TDOC) has been another fast-growing business whose stock has been in a free fall for the better part of a year. Share prices are also down nearly 70% from the all-time high reached in January 2021.</p>\n<p>The pioneer of healthcare delivered via video conferencing and phone has been struck by the pandemic unwind. Though it is still expanding and adding new capabilities to its digital healthcare platform (like last year's acquisition of connected-health-monitoring company Livongo Health), investors have grown glum on Teladoc stock. The mighty <b>Amazon </b>entering the space certainly hasn't helped the mood.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, Teladoc enjoys a first-mover advantage here. Management revealed it thinks it will grow revenue an average of 25% to 30% per year through 2024 as its current addressable market in digital healthcare continues to expand from a base of some $260 billion in annual spending in the U.S. alone. By traditional metrics, Teladoc isn't profitable yet (although it is when using adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). But if it pulls off its expectations, shares won't keep tumbling forever. I'm adding now to my holdings in this long-term digital-care winner.</p>\n<h2>3. Block (Square)</h2>\n<p>The company formerly known as Square recently added another dimension to its branding by changing its name to <b>Block </b>(NYSE:SQ). Investors have been unimpressed. The digital payments industry disruptor has fallen some 37% since the late summer.</p>\n<p>Block is a fantastic play on the future of the financial industry. Its payments-solutions segment that helps merchants manage their business in the digital era is still growing at a brisk pace. Inflation expectations for 2022 actually bode well for Block as higher prices mean this toll booth-style operation's fees will rise too (since a fixed percentage of payments are collected from each transaction). Add in Cash App, the consumer-facing business that also allows for <b>Bitcoin </b>and individual stock trading, and this is one fantastic stock to own for the long haul.</p>\n<p>Longer-term, Block and peers (like <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a></b>, another related favorite of mine) should continue to expand if cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology keep picking up steam too. Trading for just 5.5 times trailing 12-month revenue (or just over 11 times 12-month revenue when excluding Bitcoin from the equation), Block stock looks like a timely buy to me right now.</p>\n<h2>4. Upstart</h2>\n<p>It's been a while since I've talked about <b>Upstart Holdings </b>(NASDAQ:UPST), but I wasn't really interested in chasing the massive run-up that took place in its share price this past summer. But now that the company has made a roundtrip ending nowhere (shares are down 60% from all-time highs, nearly back to where they were in early August 2021), I'm ready to start buying again.</p>\n<p>Like Block, I view Upstart and other fintech businesses, like <b>SoFi Technologies, </b>as the future of the financial services industry. Upstart in particular caught fire this year as its AI software for assessing consumer loans has picked up serious momentum among banks. The company raised full-year guidance every single quarter in 2021. In the third quarter, the company said to expect full-year revenue to be in a range of $798 million to $808 million -- up from about $750 million before. That is an incredible earnings beat and raise but was a more modest upgrade than quarters past, thus helping put a pin in the share-price bubble.</p>\n<p>That certainly doesn't mean this growth story is over though. I expect this software firm for banks and lenders to continue expanding for a long time. At about 51 times trailing 12-month free cash flow-to-enterprise value as of this writing, certainly aren't cheap, but Block looks like an ultra-long-term deal as this young tech company is only beginning to crack open the potential of the traditional lending industry.</p>\n<h2>5. Marvell Technology Group</h2>\n<p>Up to this point, you might have noticed my top secular growth themes for 2022: Cloud-based communications (Zoom and Teladoc) and financial technology (Block and Upstart). But I want to add one more secular trend to the mix: Semiconductors, a basic building component of not just technology but of nearly every manufactured good in existence.</p>\n<p>Chips are the enabler of computing technology, which has reached a point where computing power and affordability have made computing a key ingredient in all sorts of things, from household appliances to cars. They're also the driving force behind cloud computing, which is reshaping how organizations in every sector of the economy operate. This is why I think <b>Marvell Technology Group </b>(NASDAQ:MRVL) is an under-the-radar name that deserves more attention.</p>\n<p>After a string of acquisitions, Marvell is a leader in data center and cloud chip design. It's also at the heart of the connected auto movement and is building momentum landing deals among automakers. And of course, there are also 5G mobile networks, which are still early in construction and helping stitch together a lot of the tech movements taking place right now. Marvell designs equipment for all of the above and expects to grow at a robust double-digit percentage pace in 2022.</p>\n<p>I like lots of other chip stocks out there too, but I've begun taking a larger stake in Marvell than the small position I started late in 2020. This is the only stock on this list not down big from all-time highs (the company reported a fantastic Q3 financial update), and at 16 times trailing 12-month sales, it isn't cheap either. But with the global chip shortage looking likely to last into 2023, I think Marvell will do well next year.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Top Growth Stocks I'm Buying To Kick Off 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Top Growth Stocks I'm Buying To Kick Off 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-17 11:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/16/5-top-growth-stocks-im-buying-to-kick-off-2022/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After an incredible showing for growth stocks in 2020 -- in which many names doubled in value or more -- 2021 was unsurprisingly a much tougher go. Lapping massive growth from the first year of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/16/5-top-growth-stocks-im-buying-to-kick-off-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","ZM":"Zoom","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4167":"医疗保健技术","BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","SQ":"Block","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4515":"5G概念"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/16/5-top-growth-stocks-im-buying-to-kick-off-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191948858","content_text":"After an incredible showing for growth stocks in 2020 -- in which many names doubled in value or more -- 2021 was unsurprisingly a much tougher go. Lapping massive growth from the first year of the pandemic, companies driving the digital economy forward were due for some pullbacks.\nNevertheless, the stock price is not always reflective of actual business momentum, and 2022 could have much better things in store for growth investors. Here are the top five companies I'm buying to kick off the new year.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n1. Zoom Video Communications\nIt's now been well over a year since Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) stock reached its all-time high. As of this writing, shares are down nearly 70% since the autumn of 2020.\nIf you've been adding to your position on the way down like I have, Zoom has been nothing but a falling knife that continues to cut those that try to catch it. But at this point, trading for just 30 times trailing 12-month free cash flow to enterprise value, Zoom looks like an incredible long-term bargain. The company is still growing sales at a double-digit pace, it's wildly profitable, and it has $5.4 billion in cash and short-term investments and zero debt on its balance sheet.\nCloud-based communications services are still disrupting the status quo in telecom (which is why Twilio is also still one of my favorites), and sooner or later Zoom and peers will reverse course if they can sustain their business momentum.\n2. Teladoc Health\nTeladoc Health (NYSE:TDOC) has been another fast-growing business whose stock has been in a free fall for the better part of a year. Share prices are also down nearly 70% from the all-time high reached in January 2021.\nThe pioneer of healthcare delivered via video conferencing and phone has been struck by the pandemic unwind. Though it is still expanding and adding new capabilities to its digital healthcare platform (like last year's acquisition of connected-health-monitoring company Livongo Health), investors have grown glum on Teladoc stock. The mighty Amazon entering the space certainly hasn't helped the mood.\nNevertheless, Teladoc enjoys a first-mover advantage here. Management revealed it thinks it will grow revenue an average of 25% to 30% per year through 2024 as its current addressable market in digital healthcare continues to expand from a base of some $260 billion in annual spending in the U.S. alone. By traditional metrics, Teladoc isn't profitable yet (although it is when using adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). But if it pulls off its expectations, shares won't keep tumbling forever. I'm adding now to my holdings in this long-term digital-care winner.\n3. Block (Square)\nThe company formerly known as Square recently added another dimension to its branding by changing its name to Block (NYSE:SQ). Investors have been unimpressed. The digital payments industry disruptor has fallen some 37% since the late summer.\nBlock is a fantastic play on the future of the financial industry. Its payments-solutions segment that helps merchants manage their business in the digital era is still growing at a brisk pace. Inflation expectations for 2022 actually bode well for Block as higher prices mean this toll booth-style operation's fees will rise too (since a fixed percentage of payments are collected from each transaction). Add in Cash App, the consumer-facing business that also allows for Bitcoin and individual stock trading, and this is one fantastic stock to own for the long haul.\nLonger-term, Block and peers (like PayPal, another related favorite of mine) should continue to expand if cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology keep picking up steam too. Trading for just 5.5 times trailing 12-month revenue (or just over 11 times 12-month revenue when excluding Bitcoin from the equation), Block stock looks like a timely buy to me right now.\n4. Upstart\nIt's been a while since I've talked about Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST), but I wasn't really interested in chasing the massive run-up that took place in its share price this past summer. But now that the company has made a roundtrip ending nowhere (shares are down 60% from all-time highs, nearly back to where they were in early August 2021), I'm ready to start buying again.\nLike Block, I view Upstart and other fintech businesses, like SoFi Technologies, as the future of the financial services industry. Upstart in particular caught fire this year as its AI software for assessing consumer loans has picked up serious momentum among banks. The company raised full-year guidance every single quarter in 2021. In the third quarter, the company said to expect full-year revenue to be in a range of $798 million to $808 million -- up from about $750 million before. That is an incredible earnings beat and raise but was a more modest upgrade than quarters past, thus helping put a pin in the share-price bubble.\nThat certainly doesn't mean this growth story is over though. I expect this software firm for banks and lenders to continue expanding for a long time. At about 51 times trailing 12-month free cash flow-to-enterprise value as of this writing, certainly aren't cheap, but Block looks like an ultra-long-term deal as this young tech company is only beginning to crack open the potential of the traditional lending industry.\n5. Marvell Technology Group\nUp to this point, you might have noticed my top secular growth themes for 2022: Cloud-based communications (Zoom and Teladoc) and financial technology (Block and Upstart). But I want to add one more secular trend to the mix: Semiconductors, a basic building component of not just technology but of nearly every manufactured good in existence.\nChips are the enabler of computing technology, which has reached a point where computing power and affordability have made computing a key ingredient in all sorts of things, from household appliances to cars. They're also the driving force behind cloud computing, which is reshaping how organizations in every sector of the economy operate. This is why I think Marvell Technology Group (NASDAQ:MRVL) is an under-the-radar name that deserves more attention.\nAfter a string of acquisitions, Marvell is a leader in data center and cloud chip design. It's also at the heart of the connected auto movement and is building momentum landing deals among automakers. And of course, there are also 5G mobile networks, which are still early in construction and helping stitch together a lot of the tech movements taking place right now. Marvell designs equipment for all of the above and expects to grow at a robust double-digit percentage pace in 2022.\nI like lots of other chip stocks out there too, but I've begun taking a larger stake in Marvell than the small position I started late in 2020. This is the only stock on this list not down big from all-time highs (the company reported a fantastic Q3 financial update), and at 16 times trailing 12-month sales, it isn't cheap either. But with the global chip shortage looking likely to last into 2023, I think Marvell will do well next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182960855,"gmtCreate":1623550827477,"gmtModify":1704205874101,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182960855","repostId":"1138970454","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186820819,"gmtCreate":1623485676731,"gmtModify":1704204943908,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186820819","repostId":"2142744202","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142744202","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623452760,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142744202?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 07:06","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142744202","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOi","content":"<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&amp;K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&amp;P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 07:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&amp;K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&amp;P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142744202","content_text":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.\nBut with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.\n\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.\n\"No one can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"\nCompany executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.\nBut there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.\nAs Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"\nPrices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.\nThis chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.\nKeeping up?\nPrices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.\nIEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.\nThe changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment.\nRead:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell\nBut that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.\n\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.\n\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.\n\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.\n\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.\n$100 oil is a mixed blessing\nIt took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.\nRecently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.\nAs a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.\nWhile energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.\n\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.\nStarting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.\nThen, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.\nAmundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366649687,"gmtCreate":1614479113449,"gmtModify":1704771967633,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$100 by end of year.","listText":"$100 by end of year.","text":"$100 by end of year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366649687","repostId":"1137629357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"<p>Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.</p>\n<p>Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.</p>\n<p>Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.</p>\n<p>Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.</p>\n<p>The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. The<i>Wall Street Journal</i>&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.</p>\n<p>In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p>\n<p>Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.</p>\n<p>“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.</p>\n<p>Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.</p>\n<p>Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.</p>\n<p>This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.</p>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-26 11:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html><strong>Oilprice</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9921834917,"gmtCreate":1671023497540,"gmtModify":1676538477007,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"France","listText":"France","text":"France","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921834917","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003546736,"gmtCreate":1641020898013,"gmtModify":1676533565753,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003546736","repostId":"1120814298","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182960855,"gmtCreate":1623550827477,"gmtModify":1704205874101,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182960855","repostId":"1138970454","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366649687,"gmtCreate":1614479113449,"gmtModify":1704771967633,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$100 by end of year.","listText":"$100 by end of year.","text":"$100 by end of year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366649687","repostId":"1137629357","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929127871,"gmtCreate":1670630115193,"gmtModify":1676538406899,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"England.","listText":"England.","text":"England.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929127871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967912427,"gmtCreate":1670248166869,"gmtModify":1676538328774,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Croatia","listText":"Croatia","text":"Croatia","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967912427","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965106292,"gmtCreate":1669905213216,"gmtModify":1676538267209,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"England!","listText":"England!","text":"England!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965106292","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003548265,"gmtCreate":1641020528582,"gmtModify":1676533565721,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LI\">$Li Auto(LI)$</a>[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LI\">$Li Auto(LI)$</a>[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"$Li Auto(LI)$[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003548265","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000970799,"gmtCreate":1639785218571,"gmtModify":1676533494352,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>Is it good time to buy now?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>Is it good time to buy now?","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$Is it good time to buy now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000970799","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000914733,"gmtCreate":1639723214503,"gmtModify":1676533493148,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000914733","repostId":"2191948858","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186820819,"gmtCreate":1623485676731,"gmtModify":1704204943908,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186820819","repostId":"2142744202","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142744202","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623452760,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142744202?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 07:06","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142744202","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOi","content":"<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&amp;K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&amp;P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 07:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&amp;K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&amp;P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142744202","content_text":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.\nBut with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.\n\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.\n\"No one can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"\nCompany executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.\nBut there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.\nAs Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"\nPrices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.\nThis chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.\nKeeping up?\nPrices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.\nIEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.\nThe changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment.\nRead:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell\nBut that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.\n\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.\n\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.\n\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.\n\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.\n$100 oil is a mixed blessing\nIt took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.\nRecently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.\nAs a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.\nWhile energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.\n\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.\nStarting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.\nThen, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.\nAmundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}