希望每天都是美好的 personal page - To The Moon

希望每天都是美好的

希望每天都是美好的

No personal profile

9Follow

5Followers

0Topic

0Badge

希望每天都是美好的

2022-04-21

nice nice nice

希望每天都是美好的

2021-06-23

$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$$0

希望每天都是美好的

2021-06-23

$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$deserves to lose money buying this

希望每天都是美好的

2021-06-23

$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$why people like to buy into nonprofit organisations?

希望每天都是美好的

2021-06-16

wish app is so bad, have you seen the reviews?

Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again

希望每天都是美好的

2021-04-21

You cannot break the laws of thermodynamics

QuantumScape: Why This SPAC Is Under Attack

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3566829975106028","uuid":"3566829975106028","gmtCreate":1603736298667,"gmtModify":1612330761620,"name":"希望每天都是美好的","pinyin":"xwmtdsmhdxiwangmeitiandoushimeihaode","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":9,"tweetSize":9,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.78%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9082188683,"gmtCreate":1650539531353,"gmtModify":1676534747042,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice nice nice","listText":"nice nice nice","text":"nice nice nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082188683","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121025630,"gmtCreate":1624445717320,"gmtModify":1703836891489,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>$0","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>$0","text":"$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$$0","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121025630","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121025059,"gmtCreate":1624445675271,"gmtModify":1703836891002,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>deserves to lose money buying this&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>deserves to lose money buying this&nbsp;","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$deserves to lose money buying this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121025059","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129579659,"gmtCreate":1624379044771,"gmtModify":1703835086165,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>why people like to buy into nonprofit organisations?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>why people like to buy into nonprofit organisations?","text":"$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$why people like to buy into nonprofit organisations?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129579659","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163992086,"gmtCreate":1623855600045,"gmtModify":1703821613465,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wish app is so bad, have you seen the reviews?","listText":"wish app is so bad, have you seen the reviews?","text":"wish app is so bad, have you seen the reviews?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163992086","repostId":"1148768572","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148768572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623822306,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148768572?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148768572","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce tradi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>\n <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>\n <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>\n <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Overview</b></p>\n<p>ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p>\n<p>In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p>\n<p><b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p>\n<p>Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p>\n<p>Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p>\n<p>It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p>\n<p>I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p>\n<p>Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p>\n<p><b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p>\n<p>Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Year</td>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>2019</td>\n   <td>2018</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Revenue</td>\n   <td>$2.54B</td>\n   <td>$1.9B</td>\n   <td>$1.73B</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Gross Profit</td>\n   <td>$1.59B</td>\n   <td>$1.46B</td>\n   <td>$1.45B</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>MAUs</td>\n   <td>107M (+19%)</td>\n   <td><p>90M (+10%)</p></td>\n   <td>82M</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>\n   <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>64M</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>*Growth (Year-over-Year)</p>\n<p>The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p>\n<p>In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p>\n<p><b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p>\n<p>Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p>\n<p>Short Interest - Still High</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p>\n<p>Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p>\n<p>I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 13:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148768572","content_text":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.\nWhile accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.\nI believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.\n\nJuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nOverview\nContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.\nIn this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.\nThe Digital Dollar Tree\nWish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.\nFrankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.\n\nNow, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.\nIt is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.\nSource: Sensor Tower\nI also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.\nWish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.\nNegative Sentiment Baked In\nWish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.\n\n\n\nYear\n2020\n2019\n2018\n\n\nRevenue\n$2.54B\n$1.9B\n$1.73B\n\n\nGross Profit\n$1.59B\n$1.46B\n$1.45B\n\n\nSales and Marketing\n$1.71B (+17%)\n$1.46B (-7%)\n$1.57B\n\n\nMAUs\n107M (+19%)\n90M (+10%)\n82M\n\n\nActive Buyers\n64M (+3%)\n62M (-3%)\n64M\n\n\n\n*Growth (Year-over-Year)\nThe largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.\nSource: Wish IR\nIn terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).\nData byYCharts\nEven after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.\nWhat about the Lawsuits?\nPerhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.\nShort Interest - Still High\nSource: Fintel\nWish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.\nThe Bottom Line\nI believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371239981,"gmtCreate":1618937020243,"gmtModify":1704717248787,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You cannot break the laws of thermodynamics&nbsp;","listText":"You cannot break the laws of thermodynamics&nbsp;","text":"You cannot break the laws of thermodynamics","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371239981","repostId":"1193005783","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193005783","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618900703,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193005783?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-20 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QuantumScape: Why This SPAC Is Under Attack","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193005783","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryQS has been targeted by Scorpion Capital in a recent \"short report.\"The report raises some ve","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>QS has been targeted by Scorpion Capital in a recent \"short report.\"</li><li>The report raises some very valid concerns over the claims made by QS.</li><li>Having said this, I don't believe QS is a fraudulent company but will refrain from investing for now.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p>QuantumScape Corporation (QS), has made headlines in recent days due to the sharp decline in the stock price, following a short report from Scorpion Capital. The company’s CEO even went on CNN and threatened legal action against the controversial short report. In this article, I try to give a balanced look at what QS does and what the possible upside/downside is.</p><p>Overall, I think that the short report is mostly accurate but naturally self-serving. Having said this, there is little new information in the report for those that have been following QS for some time. It’s obvious to most investors that QS is a speculative play, but I wouldn’t subscribe to the idea that it is a fraudulent company.</p><p><b>Company Overview</b></p><p>QuantumScape was formed in 2010 by Jagdeep Singh, Tim Holme and Professor Fritz Prinz from Stanford University. The company was formed to address the most prevalent issue in the EV space, battery technology. EVs run on batteries that have limited range and need to be charged. Therefore, if someone were to come up with a battery that charges much faster and lasts much longer, one would expect the inventor of this technology to reap some hefty rewards.</p><p>QS is working on just this, through what is known as solid-state batteries.</p><blockquote>The battery start-up achieves this by replacing the liquid electrolyte that regulates the flow of current with a solid electrolyte. The polymer separator used in conventional lithium-ion batteries is substituted with a solid-state ceramic separator, QuantumScape says. As a result, the less-efficient carbon or carbon-silicon anode is replaced with an anode of pure metallic lithium.</blockquote><p>Source:Forbes</p><p>QS established a partnership with Volkswagen AG ADR (OTCPK:VWAGY) in 2012 through a $100 million investment. The company went public through a SPAC in 2020 and has since received a further $100 million in funding from Volkswagen.</p><p><b>The \"controversial\" short report</b></p><p>Last week, Scorpion Capital released a 188-slide PowerPoint presentation exposing quite a few arguments attacking the credibility of the company and the actual merits of its technology.</p><p>While I am by no means an expert on the matter, I have tried to understandboth sidesto the best of my abilities. The report is mighty long, but I think most of it can be summed up into three key technical points which Scorpion argues QS is being deliberately obscure about:</p><ul><li>Battery performance in low temperatures</li><li>Charge speed</li><li>Scalability</li></ul><p>I point to these as they refer to specific hurdles in the battery segment and there have been claims made by QS in these areas, which, at best, have been exaggerated and don’t reflect the true capabilities of this technology.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc2d626dcc563198839f5417bd8690d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source:Short Report</p><p>The short report actually alludes to QS’s own investor presentation to point out some glaring inconsistencies. For example, here we see the results for a charging test in cold temperature. What is not apparent at first glance is that, while charging the temperature was actually much higher, 30 degrees Celsius.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f90b00e4dc3e67f167fb8bcbe0cc1a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Short Report</p><p>Another claim that seems to be quite conclusively debunked is that these batteries can be charged in 15 minutes. While this may be true, an equally important question would be how many times can the battery be charged in 15 minutes? QS claims its prototype has a charge life of 800 cycles, but this is only true at a regular 1-hour charging rate.</p><p>I think the short report makes a good point in saying that QS makes use of some “trickery” and vagueness to make their tech look better. While I am sure QS achieved all of the results it states, we have to look at the minute details. Overall, it seems that different environments and different batteries were used in different experiments to obtain more favourable results.</p><p>This is in fact one point also made a while ago byfellow SA Contributor Brian Morin, who pointed out that he expects that, at best, QS will be able to manufacture small solid-state batteries which would be able to power small electronic devices, but not, it seems for the moment, cars.</p><p><b>Counter Arguments</b></p><p>The report is clearly made to discredit QS, and in doing so, Scorpion has actually done much of what it accuses QS of doing. For one, it cites former employees and experts without giving a real source. Secondly, Scorpion itself cherry-picks the information it wants to challenge and even makes assertions about the behaviour of the CEO which are incredibly speculative.</p><p>I don’t think QS is perpetuating a fraud. For starters, its management has a proven track record of experience and even includes a Stanford professor. Furthermore, while it is true that VW has “only” invested $200 million in the company, one must believe they did some amount of due diligence. The company ponied up the second $100 million only a few weeks ago after QS delivered on milestones, so one way or another the company did meet VW’s expectations.</p><p>I also find the idea that QS is being deliberately obscure quite problematic. We are talking about a company that is essentially only worth as much as its intellectual property. It is only natural that QS would be cagey about disclosing certain things, especially since Fisker Inc.(NYSE:FSR)was caughttrying to steal such propertyfrom QS.</p><p>With all this said, I don’t think QS is a fraud, and I do think the company is a leader in its field. As an investment, you are looking at a 10-year time frame, and as mentioned before, much longer before we see these batteries in cars, which is what everyone is hoping for.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>While I have to take the report with a big grain of salt, it does provide some legitimate concerns. At the very best, QS is a gamble, and even at these prices, it seems to be an expensive gamble. I would advise keeping away from this at least until the lock-up expiration ends. If you are willing to do the research though, this is a company that you should keep on your watchlist. Breakthroughs don’t happen every day, but when they do, they change things a lot. QS is capable of delivering such breakthroughs, but at the time I can’t justify an investment in it.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QuantumScape: Why This SPAC Is Under Attack</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuantumScape: Why This SPAC Is Under Attack\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-20 14:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419914-quantumscape-why-this-spac-is-under-attack><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryQS has been targeted by Scorpion Capital in a recent \"short report.\"The report raises some very valid concerns over the claims made by QS.Having said this, I don't believe QS is a fraudulent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419914-quantumscape-why-this-spac-is-under-attack\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419914-quantumscape-why-this-spac-is-under-attack","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1193005783","content_text":"SummaryQS has been targeted by Scorpion Capital in a recent \"short report.\"The report raises some very valid concerns over the claims made by QS.Having said this, I don't believe QS is a fraudulent company but will refrain from investing for now.Thesis SummaryQuantumScape Corporation (QS), has made headlines in recent days due to the sharp decline in the stock price, following a short report from Scorpion Capital. The company’s CEO even went on CNN and threatened legal action against the controversial short report. In this article, I try to give a balanced look at what QS does and what the possible upside/downside is.Overall, I think that the short report is mostly accurate but naturally self-serving. Having said this, there is little new information in the report for those that have been following QS for some time. It’s obvious to most investors that QS is a speculative play, but I wouldn’t subscribe to the idea that it is a fraudulent company.Company OverviewQuantumScape was formed in 2010 by Jagdeep Singh, Tim Holme and Professor Fritz Prinz from Stanford University. The company was formed to address the most prevalent issue in the EV space, battery technology. EVs run on batteries that have limited range and need to be charged. Therefore, if someone were to come up with a battery that charges much faster and lasts much longer, one would expect the inventor of this technology to reap some hefty rewards.QS is working on just this, through what is known as solid-state batteries.The battery start-up achieves this by replacing the liquid electrolyte that regulates the flow of current with a solid electrolyte. The polymer separator used in conventional lithium-ion batteries is substituted with a solid-state ceramic separator, QuantumScape says. As a result, the less-efficient carbon or carbon-silicon anode is replaced with an anode of pure metallic lithium.Source:ForbesQS established a partnership with Volkswagen AG ADR (OTCPK:VWAGY) in 2012 through a $100 million investment. The company went public through a SPAC in 2020 and has since received a further $100 million in funding from Volkswagen.The \"controversial\" short reportLast week, Scorpion Capital released a 188-slide PowerPoint presentation exposing quite a few arguments attacking the credibility of the company and the actual merits of its technology.While I am by no means an expert on the matter, I have tried to understandboth sidesto the best of my abilities. The report is mighty long, but I think most of it can be summed up into three key technical points which Scorpion argues QS is being deliberately obscure about:Battery performance in low temperaturesCharge speedScalabilityI point to these as they refer to specific hurdles in the battery segment and there have been claims made by QS in these areas, which, at best, have been exaggerated and don’t reflect the true capabilities of this technology.Source:Short ReportThe short report actually alludes to QS’s own investor presentation to point out some glaring inconsistencies. For example, here we see the results for a charging test in cold temperature. What is not apparent at first glance is that, while charging the temperature was actually much higher, 30 degrees Celsius.Source: Short ReportAnother claim that seems to be quite conclusively debunked is that these batteries can be charged in 15 minutes. While this may be true, an equally important question would be how many times can the battery be charged in 15 minutes? QS claims its prototype has a charge life of 800 cycles, but this is only true at a regular 1-hour charging rate.I think the short report makes a good point in saying that QS makes use of some “trickery” and vagueness to make their tech look better. While I am sure QS achieved all of the results it states, we have to look at the minute details. Overall, it seems that different environments and different batteries were used in different experiments to obtain more favourable results.This is in fact one point also made a while ago byfellow SA Contributor Brian Morin, who pointed out that he expects that, at best, QS will be able to manufacture small solid-state batteries which would be able to power small electronic devices, but not, it seems for the moment, cars.Counter ArgumentsThe report is clearly made to discredit QS, and in doing so, Scorpion has actually done much of what it accuses QS of doing. For one, it cites former employees and experts without giving a real source. Secondly, Scorpion itself cherry-picks the information it wants to challenge and even makes assertions about the behaviour of the CEO which are incredibly speculative.I don’t think QS is perpetuating a fraud. For starters, its management has a proven track record of experience and even includes a Stanford professor. Furthermore, while it is true that VW has “only” invested $200 million in the company, one must believe they did some amount of due diligence. The company ponied up the second $100 million only a few weeks ago after QS delivered on milestones, so one way or another the company did meet VW’s expectations.I also find the idea that QS is being deliberately obscure quite problematic. We are talking about a company that is essentially only worth as much as its intellectual property. It is only natural that QS would be cagey about disclosing certain things, especially since Fisker Inc.(NYSE:FSR)was caughttrying to steal such propertyfrom QS.With all this said, I don’t think QS is a fraud, and I do think the company is a leader in its field. As an investment, you are looking at a 10-year time frame, and as mentioned before, much longer before we see these batteries in cars, which is what everyone is hoping for.TakeawayWhile I have to take the report with a big grain of salt, it does provide some legitimate concerns. At the very best, QS is a gamble, and even at these prices, it seems to be an expensive gamble. I would advise keeping away from this at least until the lock-up expiration ends. If you are willing to do the research though, this is a company that you should keep on your watchlist. Breakthroughs don’t happen every day, but when they do, they change things a lot. QS is capable of delivering such breakthroughs, but at the time I can’t justify an investment in it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":121025059,"gmtCreate":1624445675271,"gmtModify":1703836891002,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>deserves to lose money buying this&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>deserves to lose money buying this&nbsp;","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$deserves to lose money buying this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121025059","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082188683,"gmtCreate":1650539531353,"gmtModify":1676534747042,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice nice nice","listText":"nice nice nice","text":"nice nice nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082188683","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121025630,"gmtCreate":1624445717320,"gmtModify":1703836891489,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>$0","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>$0","text":"$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$$0","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121025630","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129579659,"gmtCreate":1624379044771,"gmtModify":1703835086165,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>why people like to buy into nonprofit organisations?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>why people like to buy into nonprofit organisations?","text":"$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$why people like to buy into nonprofit organisations?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129579659","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163992086,"gmtCreate":1623855600045,"gmtModify":1703821613465,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wish app is so bad, have you seen the reviews?","listText":"wish app is so bad, have you seen the reviews?","text":"wish app is so bad, have you seen the reviews?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163992086","repostId":"1148768572","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148768572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623822306,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148768572?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148768572","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce tradi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>\n <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>\n <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>\n <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Overview</b></p>\n<p>ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p>\n<p>In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p>\n<p><b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p>\n<p>Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p>\n<p>Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p>\n<p>It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p>\n<p>I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p>\n<p>Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p>\n<p><b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p>\n<p>Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Year</td>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>2019</td>\n   <td>2018</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Revenue</td>\n   <td>$2.54B</td>\n   <td>$1.9B</td>\n   <td>$1.73B</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Gross Profit</td>\n   <td>$1.59B</td>\n   <td>$1.46B</td>\n   <td>$1.45B</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>MAUs</td>\n   <td>107M (+19%)</td>\n   <td><p>90M (+10%)</p></td>\n   <td>82M</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>\n   <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>64M</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>*Growth (Year-over-Year)</p>\n<p>The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p>\n<p>In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p>\n<p><b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p>\n<p>Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p>\n<p>Short Interest - Still High</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p>\n<p>Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p>\n<p>I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 13:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148768572","content_text":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.\nWhile accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.\nI believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.\n\nJuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nOverview\nContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.\nIn this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.\nThe Digital Dollar Tree\nWish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.\nFrankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.\n\nNow, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.\nIt is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.\nSource: Sensor Tower\nI also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.\nWish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.\nNegative Sentiment Baked In\nWish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.\n\n\n\nYear\n2020\n2019\n2018\n\n\nRevenue\n$2.54B\n$1.9B\n$1.73B\n\n\nGross Profit\n$1.59B\n$1.46B\n$1.45B\n\n\nSales and Marketing\n$1.71B (+17%)\n$1.46B (-7%)\n$1.57B\n\n\nMAUs\n107M (+19%)\n90M (+10%)\n82M\n\n\nActive Buyers\n64M (+3%)\n62M (-3%)\n64M\n\n\n\n*Growth (Year-over-Year)\nThe largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.\nSource: Wish IR\nIn terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).\nData byYCharts\nEven after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.\nWhat about the Lawsuits?\nPerhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.\nShort Interest - Still High\nSource: Fintel\nWish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.\nThe Bottom Line\nI believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371239981,"gmtCreate":1618937020243,"gmtModify":1704717248787,"author":{"id":"3566829975106028","authorId":"3566829975106028","name":"希望每天都是美好的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b843b1d115e0bd4d43d8f300c985dca9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566829975106028","authorIdStr":"3566829975106028"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You cannot break the laws of thermodynamics&nbsp;","listText":"You cannot break the laws of thermodynamics&nbsp;","text":"You cannot break the laws of thermodynamics","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371239981","repostId":"1193005783","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193005783","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618900703,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193005783?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-20 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QuantumScape: Why This SPAC Is Under Attack","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193005783","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryQS has been targeted by Scorpion Capital in a recent \"short report.\"The report raises some ve","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>QS has been targeted by Scorpion Capital in a recent \"short report.\"</li><li>The report raises some very valid concerns over the claims made by QS.</li><li>Having said this, I don't believe QS is a fraudulent company but will refrain from investing for now.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p>QuantumScape Corporation (QS), has made headlines in recent days due to the sharp decline in the stock price, following a short report from Scorpion Capital. The company’s CEO even went on CNN and threatened legal action against the controversial short report. In this article, I try to give a balanced look at what QS does and what the possible upside/downside is.</p><p>Overall, I think that the short report is mostly accurate but naturally self-serving. Having said this, there is little new information in the report for those that have been following QS for some time. It’s obvious to most investors that QS is a speculative play, but I wouldn’t subscribe to the idea that it is a fraudulent company.</p><p><b>Company Overview</b></p><p>QuantumScape was formed in 2010 by Jagdeep Singh, Tim Holme and Professor Fritz Prinz from Stanford University. The company was formed to address the most prevalent issue in the EV space, battery technology. EVs run on batteries that have limited range and need to be charged. Therefore, if someone were to come up with a battery that charges much faster and lasts much longer, one would expect the inventor of this technology to reap some hefty rewards.</p><p>QS is working on just this, through what is known as solid-state batteries.</p><blockquote>The battery start-up achieves this by replacing the liquid electrolyte that regulates the flow of current with a solid electrolyte. The polymer separator used in conventional lithium-ion batteries is substituted with a solid-state ceramic separator, QuantumScape says. As a result, the less-efficient carbon or carbon-silicon anode is replaced with an anode of pure metallic lithium.</blockquote><p>Source:Forbes</p><p>QS established a partnership with Volkswagen AG ADR (OTCPK:VWAGY) in 2012 through a $100 million investment. The company went public through a SPAC in 2020 and has since received a further $100 million in funding from Volkswagen.</p><p><b>The \"controversial\" short report</b></p><p>Last week, Scorpion Capital released a 188-slide PowerPoint presentation exposing quite a few arguments attacking the credibility of the company and the actual merits of its technology.</p><p>While I am by no means an expert on the matter, I have tried to understandboth sidesto the best of my abilities. The report is mighty long, but I think most of it can be summed up into three key technical points which Scorpion argues QS is being deliberately obscure about:</p><ul><li>Battery performance in low temperatures</li><li>Charge speed</li><li>Scalability</li></ul><p>I point to these as they refer to specific hurdles in the battery segment and there have been claims made by QS in these areas, which, at best, have been exaggerated and don’t reflect the true capabilities of this technology.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc2d626dcc563198839f5417bd8690d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source:Short Report</p><p>The short report actually alludes to QS’s own investor presentation to point out some glaring inconsistencies. For example, here we see the results for a charging test in cold temperature. What is not apparent at first glance is that, while charging the temperature was actually much higher, 30 degrees Celsius.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f90b00e4dc3e67f167fb8bcbe0cc1a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Short Report</p><p>Another claim that seems to be quite conclusively debunked is that these batteries can be charged in 15 minutes. While this may be true, an equally important question would be how many times can the battery be charged in 15 minutes? QS claims its prototype has a charge life of 800 cycles, but this is only true at a regular 1-hour charging rate.</p><p>I think the short report makes a good point in saying that QS makes use of some “trickery” and vagueness to make their tech look better. While I am sure QS achieved all of the results it states, we have to look at the minute details. Overall, it seems that different environments and different batteries were used in different experiments to obtain more favourable results.</p><p>This is in fact one point also made a while ago byfellow SA Contributor Brian Morin, who pointed out that he expects that, at best, QS will be able to manufacture small solid-state batteries which would be able to power small electronic devices, but not, it seems for the moment, cars.</p><p><b>Counter Arguments</b></p><p>The report is clearly made to discredit QS, and in doing so, Scorpion has actually done much of what it accuses QS of doing. For one, it cites former employees and experts without giving a real source. Secondly, Scorpion itself cherry-picks the information it wants to challenge and even makes assertions about the behaviour of the CEO which are incredibly speculative.</p><p>I don’t think QS is perpetuating a fraud. For starters, its management has a proven track record of experience and even includes a Stanford professor. Furthermore, while it is true that VW has “only” invested $200 million in the company, one must believe they did some amount of due diligence. The company ponied up the second $100 million only a few weeks ago after QS delivered on milestones, so one way or another the company did meet VW’s expectations.</p><p>I also find the idea that QS is being deliberately obscure quite problematic. We are talking about a company that is essentially only worth as much as its intellectual property. It is only natural that QS would be cagey about disclosing certain things, especially since Fisker Inc.(NYSE:FSR)was caughttrying to steal such propertyfrom QS.</p><p>With all this said, I don’t think QS is a fraud, and I do think the company is a leader in its field. As an investment, you are looking at a 10-year time frame, and as mentioned before, much longer before we see these batteries in cars, which is what everyone is hoping for.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>While I have to take the report with a big grain of salt, it does provide some legitimate concerns. At the very best, QS is a gamble, and even at these prices, it seems to be an expensive gamble. I would advise keeping away from this at least until the lock-up expiration ends. If you are willing to do the research though, this is a company that you should keep on your watchlist. Breakthroughs don’t happen every day, but when they do, they change things a lot. QS is capable of delivering such breakthroughs, but at the time I can’t justify an investment in it.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QuantumScape: Why This SPAC Is Under Attack</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuantumScape: Why This SPAC Is Under Attack\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-20 14:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419914-quantumscape-why-this-spac-is-under-attack><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryQS has been targeted by Scorpion Capital in a recent \"short report.\"The report raises some very valid concerns over the claims made by QS.Having said this, I don't believe QS is a fraudulent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419914-quantumscape-why-this-spac-is-under-attack\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419914-quantumscape-why-this-spac-is-under-attack","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1193005783","content_text":"SummaryQS has been targeted by Scorpion Capital in a recent \"short report.\"The report raises some very valid concerns over the claims made by QS.Having said this, I don't believe QS is a fraudulent company but will refrain from investing for now.Thesis SummaryQuantumScape Corporation (QS), has made headlines in recent days due to the sharp decline in the stock price, following a short report from Scorpion Capital. The company’s CEO even went on CNN and threatened legal action against the controversial short report. In this article, I try to give a balanced look at what QS does and what the possible upside/downside is.Overall, I think that the short report is mostly accurate but naturally self-serving. Having said this, there is little new information in the report for those that have been following QS for some time. It’s obvious to most investors that QS is a speculative play, but I wouldn’t subscribe to the idea that it is a fraudulent company.Company OverviewQuantumScape was formed in 2010 by Jagdeep Singh, Tim Holme and Professor Fritz Prinz from Stanford University. The company was formed to address the most prevalent issue in the EV space, battery technology. EVs run on batteries that have limited range and need to be charged. Therefore, if someone were to come up with a battery that charges much faster and lasts much longer, one would expect the inventor of this technology to reap some hefty rewards.QS is working on just this, through what is known as solid-state batteries.The battery start-up achieves this by replacing the liquid electrolyte that regulates the flow of current with a solid electrolyte. The polymer separator used in conventional lithium-ion batteries is substituted with a solid-state ceramic separator, QuantumScape says. As a result, the less-efficient carbon or carbon-silicon anode is replaced with an anode of pure metallic lithium.Source:ForbesQS established a partnership with Volkswagen AG ADR (OTCPK:VWAGY) in 2012 through a $100 million investment. The company went public through a SPAC in 2020 and has since received a further $100 million in funding from Volkswagen.The \"controversial\" short reportLast week, Scorpion Capital released a 188-slide PowerPoint presentation exposing quite a few arguments attacking the credibility of the company and the actual merits of its technology.While I am by no means an expert on the matter, I have tried to understandboth sidesto the best of my abilities. The report is mighty long, but I think most of it can be summed up into three key technical points which Scorpion argues QS is being deliberately obscure about:Battery performance in low temperaturesCharge speedScalabilityI point to these as they refer to specific hurdles in the battery segment and there have been claims made by QS in these areas, which, at best, have been exaggerated and don’t reflect the true capabilities of this technology.Source:Short ReportThe short report actually alludes to QS’s own investor presentation to point out some glaring inconsistencies. For example, here we see the results for a charging test in cold temperature. What is not apparent at first glance is that, while charging the temperature was actually much higher, 30 degrees Celsius.Source: Short ReportAnother claim that seems to be quite conclusively debunked is that these batteries can be charged in 15 minutes. While this may be true, an equally important question would be how many times can the battery be charged in 15 minutes? QS claims its prototype has a charge life of 800 cycles, but this is only true at a regular 1-hour charging rate.I think the short report makes a good point in saying that QS makes use of some “trickery” and vagueness to make their tech look better. While I am sure QS achieved all of the results it states, we have to look at the minute details. Overall, it seems that different environments and different batteries were used in different experiments to obtain more favourable results.This is in fact one point also made a while ago byfellow SA Contributor Brian Morin, who pointed out that he expects that, at best, QS will be able to manufacture small solid-state batteries which would be able to power small electronic devices, but not, it seems for the moment, cars.Counter ArgumentsThe report is clearly made to discredit QS, and in doing so, Scorpion has actually done much of what it accuses QS of doing. For one, it cites former employees and experts without giving a real source. Secondly, Scorpion itself cherry-picks the information it wants to challenge and even makes assertions about the behaviour of the CEO which are incredibly speculative.I don’t think QS is perpetuating a fraud. For starters, its management has a proven track record of experience and even includes a Stanford professor. Furthermore, while it is true that VW has “only” invested $200 million in the company, one must believe they did some amount of due diligence. The company ponied up the second $100 million only a few weeks ago after QS delivered on milestones, so one way or another the company did meet VW’s expectations.I also find the idea that QS is being deliberately obscure quite problematic. We are talking about a company that is essentially only worth as much as its intellectual property. It is only natural that QS would be cagey about disclosing certain things, especially since Fisker Inc.(NYSE:FSR)was caughttrying to steal such propertyfrom QS.With all this said, I don’t think QS is a fraud, and I do think the company is a leader in its field. As an investment, you are looking at a 10-year time frame, and as mentioned before, much longer before we see these batteries in cars, which is what everyone is hoping for.TakeawayWhile I have to take the report with a big grain of salt, it does provide some legitimate concerns. At the very best, QS is a gamble, and even at these prices, it seems to be an expensive gamble. I would advise keeping away from this at least until the lock-up expiration ends. If you are willing to do the research though, this is a company that you should keep on your watchlist. Breakthroughs don’t happen every day, but when they do, they change things a lot. QS is capable of delivering such breakthroughs, but at the time I can’t justify an investment in it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}