新航起飞 personal page - To The Moon

新航起飞

新航起飞

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07-04

$新电信(Z74.SI)$ yes

2023-10-31

$新电信(Z74.SI)$ 🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱

2023-08-29

$新电信(Z74.SI)$ 🐢🐢🐢😡😡😡😡

2023-08-08

Yes

2023-08-08

Yes

2023-07-05

$新电信(Z74.SI)$ 😡😡

2023-06-12

$新电信(Z74.SI)$ [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血]

2023-06-09

$新电信(Z74.SI)$ 😡😡🤮🤮

2023-06-01

$新电信(Z74.SI)$ 😡😡

2023-05-25

$新电信(Z74.SI)$ 😡😡😤

2023-05-22

$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$ 😭😭😭

2023-03-08

$苹果(AAPL)$ 。。。。

2023-02-21

$新电信(Z74.SI)$ 2. 32 to 2. 38

2023-01-11

$小米集团-W(01810)$ .... U

2023-01-11

$苹果(AAPL)$ ..

2022-12-06

$新电信(Z74.SI)$ yes, back to 2.63

2022-10-21

$新电信(Z74.SI)$2. 39 soon

2022-10-04

$丰益国际(F34.SI)$

2022-10-03

$新电信(Z74.SI)$

2022-09-28

$丰树工业信托(ME8U.SI)$

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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[喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186544919404624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185296025432080,"gmtCreate":1686277827393,"gmtModify":1686277831183,"author":{"id":"3566999773176722","authorId":"3566999773176722","name":"新航起飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70cc82561a181e1c00587b5cbc04e466","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566999773176722","authorIdStr":"3566999773176722"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Z74.SI\">$新电信(Z74.SI)$&nbsp;</a>😡😡🤮🤮","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Z74.SI\">$新电信(Z74.SI)$&nbsp;</a>😡😡🤮🤮","text":"$新电信(Z74.SI)$ 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yes","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3ad08b86ab548ccd1c0ec4155bd43177","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9012670604","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013261623,"gmtCreate":1648735787107,"gmtModify":1676534388335,"author":{"id":"3566999773176722","authorId":"3566999773176722","name":"新航起飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70cc82561a181e1c00587b5cbc04e466","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566999773176722","authorIdStr":"3566999773176722"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes&nbsp;","listText":"Yes&nbsp;","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013261623","repostId":"1109157751","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109157751","pubTimestamp":1648692694,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109157751?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-31 10:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"油价狂飙下的油神、股神和狼王","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109157751","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"石油还是同样的石油，只是一千个基金经理眼中有一千种投资价值判断。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月31日又一轮油价调整就要来了。</p><p>此前由于原油飙升，国内油价已经五连涨。3月初还只是四连涨的时候，“92号汽油加满，负债满满；95号汽油加满，倾家荡产；98号汽油加满，三代还款！”的段子，还没来得及完成自己在朋友圈刷屏的命运，95号汽油就又在第五轮的上涨里，正式进入了“9元时代”。</p><p>此刻电动车车主们，或许在庆幸早买早享受、不买要加油。但真正赚到了大便宜的，还是押注了油价上涨的对冲基金们。</p><p>美国外汇对冲基金CFM旗下追踪市场信号指数的基金今年以来上涨了15%，押注能源价格上涨为其贡献了收益大头；而伦敦对冲基金 Aspect Capital 旗下的多元投资基金（Diversified fund）今年以来上涨了9%，主要原因也无外乎做多石油及其相关商品价格的上涨。</p><p>这其中，最兴奋不已的莫过于“原油交易之神”皮埃尔·安杜兰（Pierre Andurand）。据《金融时报》透露，他管理的商品自由交易增强基金（Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund）在短短两个月时间里已经赚取了109%的收益。同样押注油价飙升的，还有“股神”巴菲特和“华尔街狼王”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IKAN\">伊坎</a>。这对狭路总相逢的死对头，一个还在对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>的疯狂加仓，后者已经狂赚10亿后抛售离场。</p><p>两年前，WTI5月原油期货价格跌到最低-37.63美元/桶，负油价带来的恐慌还记忆犹新，油价反手已经突破了8年前的高点，超过100美元/桶。</p><p>那么，在这波史诗级的钻石底大反弹里，谁是最敏锐的那一个呢？</p><p><b>01、「油神」安杜兰：大战正酣</b></p><p>这一次，安杜兰又押对了。</p><p>2022年才过去两个多月，“原油交易之神” 皮埃尔·安杜兰（Pierre Andurand）管理的商品自由交易增强基金便因押中油价飙升而上涨了109%。在彭博3月24日的采访中，安杜兰依然看多油价，认为到今年年底甚至会触及200美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f68e42d61df008e14b35612c7ca1d42\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>安杜兰认为原油涨到200美元一桶已经近在眼前，Bloomberg</p><p>此前的2020年，安杜兰已经大显身手。他因为做空“负油价”大赚近3亿美元。在安杜兰大举看空油价的2月份，当时的人们也许怎么样都不会相信55美元的油价会变成负数，但每天花十小时研究病毒资料的安杜兰则坚定地认为，一旦疫情爆发，世界各地将会出现大量封锁区，而这会导致原油的需求量骤减，油价一定会暴跌[3]。果不其然，两个月后，油价跌到了-40美元，安杜兰的预言得以验证。</p><p>说起来，上一次这么单吊石油还大获全胜的人，依然还是安杜兰。</p><p>这位全球最大原油对冲基金 Andurand Capital Management 的掌门人，早在2008年的金融危机中，便因精准预测油价暴跌而“一战成名”，那一次，他赚取了210%的收益。</p><p>只不过，那个时候，安杜兰创办的对冲基金还叫 Blue Glod ，而在他真正被封为“油神”之前，也还有一段弯路要走。</p><p>2007年，30岁的安杜兰离开了全球最大石油交易商——维多集团（Vitol），创立了属于自己的对冲基金公司。在维多集团时，他被称为是“最能赚钱的交易员之一”，不过，生性不羁爱自由的安杜兰还是离开了维多，自己给自己当老板。</p><p>创立公司后的第二年安杜兰便开始名声大噪，但开局太顺利，或许不是什么好事。安杜兰的创业之路在2008年一鸣惊人后，开始呈现“高开低走”的颓势，接下来三年多的时间里，他管理的基金一路下跌，收益由正转负，直到2012年4月，毫无起色的 Blue Glod 只好关门谢客。</p><p>失败没有让安杜兰消沉，仅仅过了八个月，他就选择「赌上自己的名字」再来一次。2013年2月，他浮出对冲基金界，创办了 Andurand Capital Management。他毫不掩饰地直接用自己的名字来命名，显示出比上一次更大的决心。</p><p>而安杜兰也没有让再信他一次的投资者失望。2014年，安杜兰押中油价暴跌获得了38%的收益率，2016年，他又因押中油价反弹获得了22%的收益率，把石油这一个品种的波动吃干抹净。</p><p>在原油交易上极具天赋的安杜兰，常常能在油价的剧烈波动中赚得盆满钵满，正因如此，不少人只把他当成一个“时代幸运儿”，一个成也石油、还会败也石油的“大胆狂徒”。毕竟，谁能永远料事如神呢？</p><p>然而安杜兰却不这么认为。他说自己并不是“交易瘾君子”，也从不盲目下重注，每一次“大手笔”都经过了深入的研究和严密的分析。而安杜兰的“抓大放小”，深入原油一个品种的供需矛盾、多空转换，也的确为他的投资者们赚取了丰厚的回报——2008年至今，安杜兰管理的基金累计收益翻了近十倍。</p><p>而这一次对油价飙升的重押，也不过是安杜兰“下赌注式”交易风格的再现，他只是在能力圈里又做了一直以来最擅长的事。</p><p><b>02、「股神」巴菲特：卷土重来</b></p><p>比起安杜兰的信手拈来，巴菲特在石油上的投资就稍显坎坷了。</p><p>资料显示，巴菲特今年3月1日开始重新建仓西方石油，并在3月4日、3月11日连续两次加仓，将西方石油买成了自己的第九大重仓股，买入成本从每股46.76美元到56.60美元不等。截至3月21日，西方石油的股价已经涨到了60.96美元，距巴菲特第一次买入时上涨了30%。</p><p>之所以说「重新建仓」，主要是因为他之前曾经摔过一跤。从巴菲特对西方石油的历史持仓来看，他此前在这只股票上的操作可谓是“卖在了黎明前，买在了涨价后”，到目前为止，巴菲特在西方石油上很难说赚到了大钱。</p><p>早在2019年，西方石油要收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APC\">阿纳达科石油</a>公司（Anadarko Petroleum），便以优先股的形式向巴菲特募资，除了支付8%的年股息，还附带有普通股的认购期权，执行价格为62.5美元。也就是说，西方石油除了要对巴菲特分红派息外还会偿还他一部分的普通股。而从巴菲特2019年的持仓变化中可以看出，他的确对西方石油进行了增持。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bbbc39c687e488620cf82d09e84d818\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>然而，信心十足的巴菲特等来的却是疫情这只黑天鹅，让油价在2020年遭遇了暴跌。彼时的西方石油又因收购阿纳达科石油而陷入财务危机，股价从年初的40多美元一路跌到了一季度末的8.8美元。面对如此状况，巴菲特只好卖掉了西方石油的股票，到2020年二季度，巴菲特的持仓中便已不见西方石油的身影。</p><p>对于这笔失败的投资，巴菲特在接受采访时表示，自己的确是误判了油价走势。</p><p>稍显意外的是，一年多后，巴菲特却又以50美元左右的价格重新买入了当初15美元左右卖出的西方石油，迅速认错。</p><p>向来以价值投资著称、致力于寻找好生意的巴菲特，按理说并不偏好强周期、高beta的能源行业，而西方石油作为典型的周期股，为什么屡次出现在巴菲特的持仓中呢？</p><p>根据其过往的投资经历推断，稳定增值的类消费逻辑或许是巴菲特投资周期股的主要原因[5]。具体放在西方石油身上，是它拥有稳定的竞争格局和较高的股息支付。</p><p>西方石油作为美国第四大石油和天然气公司，在经历了美页岩油行业大规模并购重组后，行业竞争格局趋于稳定，同时，西方石油即使在金融危机和页岩革命期间也维持了稳定的股息支付，而当前，伴随着油价上涨，西方石油的财务状况也得以修复，更能为股息支付提供稳定的资金支持。</p><p>其实，巴菲特早就“看中了”西方石油，2019年买入优先股便是最好的证明。只是2020年外部环境的剧烈变化让巴菲特做了一些现在看来并不明智的操作，还止过损。但是2020年亏的只是普通股下跌的钱，而巴菲特仍享受了优先股的分红派息。</p><p>如今油价上涨，巴菲特再次看到了西方石油的买入时机，就算付出比之前更高的成本，“股神”依然愿意卷土重来。</p><p><b>03、「狼王」伊坎：见好就收</b></p><p>就在“股神”巴菲特加仓西方石油之际，另一边，“华尔街狼王”伊坎已全部抛售西方石油剩余股票，赚取了10亿美元。</p><p>1936年出生于纽约皇后区的伊坎，被《财富》称为“这个星球上最成功的投机者”。这位犹太人从纽约大学辍学后便加入了军营，在那里，他是小有名气的扑克牌高手。退伍后，伊坎便成为了一名股票经纪人，开始了他“华尔街之狼”的投资生涯。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/168b96e5d53577b54ee92ffaca60d1a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>伊坎的特写，图片来源：Icahn: The Restless Billionaire，HBO</p><p>从1961年第一次走进证券交易所至今，伊坎主导了无数次“恶意收购”事件，他经常大量买入看好企业的股票，成为该公司的战略股东并干涉公司的管理决策，促使股价在短期内快速上涨。</p><p>某种程度上，伊坎从投资理念的根源上，就是巴菲特的“敌人”。伊坎并不关心企业发展，与其像巴菲特说的那样陪伴企业成长，他只想通过买卖股票获利。</p><p>1985年，看好石油行业的伊坎准备收购菲力浦石油公司，此时，另一家财团开出了更高的收购价格想要“截胡”菲力浦，而势在必得的伊坎也加大马力进行提价，但对方依然不肯放弃，甚至又进一步抬高了价格，对伊坎步步紧逼，就在这样多次来回之后，伊坎猛然将手上的股票全部卖出，在这轮股价“推涨”中赚了上亿美元。</p><p>而他在西方石油这只股票的投资上，也尽显“狼王”本色。</p><p>早在2019年，伊坎和巴菲特罕见地同时都持有了西方石油的股票，但当西方石油想要收购阿纳达科石油公司（Anadarko Petroleum）时，两人却出现了分歧。</p><p>由于收购需要一大笔昂贵的资金（100亿美元）就得进行债务融资，伊坎对此提出了反对意见。西方石油的首席执行官薇姬·霍鲁布（Vicki Hollub）执意要达成这笔交易，最终以优先股的方式向巴菲特募资，承诺8%的年股息并附带股权认购期权。</p><p>对于霍鲁布的这个做法，伊坎十分不满，他认为此举不但“便宜了”巴菲特，对西方石油来说也完全没有好处。</p><p>不久之后的2020年3月，负债累累的西方石油又受到油价暴跌的影响，股价一路下跌，巴菲特清仓了西方石油。此情此景让伊坎愤怒不已，再次翻出旧账——要不是霍鲁布一意孤行，巴菲特“助纣为虐”，西方石油何至于沦落至此？</p><p>生气没用，为了能够罢免霍鲁布，这位“狼王”一路提高自己在西方石油上的话语权，在短短几个月里，就把持股比例从2.5%提升到了10%[14]。虽然他的罢免计划最后以和解协议告终，但客观上伊坎也成功地在股价低位抄底了一大堆筹码。</p><p>如今，西方石油终于迎来股价飙涨，这位“不关心企业发展，只想通过买卖股票获利”的投机派也顺势在近期清仓了这只股票，兑现收益。</p><p>伊坎此时的套利离场，与其说是看空油价，倒不如说是终于报复了西方石油曾经辜负了他。</p><p>清仓后的伊坎，就像那些拉黑你还要通知你的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>网友一样，在3月6日致西方石油董事会的信中表示，我清仓了，而且2020年因为和解协议而安排到董事会里的两位代表，也会辞职离开。</p><p>反正对于伊坎来说，表达他对油价看法的方式也很多。据《华尔街日报》的报道，伊坎目前仍持有约5亿美元价值的西方石油公司认股权证。除此之外，他还拿着其它能源公司的股票，比如液化天然气最大生产商Cheniere能源公司(LNG)，以及炼油商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVI\">CVR能源</a>公司(CVI)。</p><p>总之，两年前想通过持股西方石油干涉该公司战略决策的伊坎并没有如愿以偿，如今好不容易等到股价上涨，“不相为谋”的巴菲特又跑步进场，获利10亿的伊坎决定“揣着胜利的果实”互道一声拜拜，也就在情理之中了。</p><p>正可谓，此时不走，更待何时？</p><p><b>04、尾声</b></p><p>石油还是同样的石油，只是一千个基金经理眼中有一千种投资价值判断。</p><p>在游戏的上半场，“油神”安杜兰激战正酣，“狼王”伊坎硕果累累，“股神”巴菲特则重回战场。他们一个是屡战屡胜的原油交易大神，另一对则是在西方石油上「积怨已深」的老对手。押注、交易、持有，孰高孰低，恐怕还要再把眼光拉长到下半场。</p><p>毕竟谁能笑到最后，最终不被贝塔反噬，是周期品对所有投资者的终极考验。</p><p>油价还会继续上涨吗？没人知道确定的答案。不过，相比石油，处在相对静止闭环中的人或许更想知道的，菜价还会涨多少？</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>油价狂飙下的油神、股神和狼王</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油价狂飙下的油神、股神和狼王\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-31 10:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AI50006ms1hQjSTCoXTd6w><strong>远川投资评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月31日又一轮油价调整就要来了。此前由于原油飙升，国内油价已经五连涨。3月初还只是四连涨的时候，“92号汽油加满，负债满满；95号汽油加满，倾家荡产；98号汽油加满，三代还款！”的段子，还没来得及完成自己在朋友圈刷屏的命运，95号汽油就又在第五轮的上涨里，正式进入了“9元时代”。此刻电动车车主们，或许在庆幸早买早享受、不买要加油。但真正赚到了大便宜的，还是押注了油价上涨的对冲基金们。美国外汇对冲...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AI50006ms1hQjSTCoXTd6w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AI50006ms1hQjSTCoXTd6w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109157751","content_text":"3月31日又一轮油价调整就要来了。此前由于原油飙升，国内油价已经五连涨。3月初还只是四连涨的时候，“92号汽油加满，负债满满；95号汽油加满，倾家荡产；98号汽油加满，三代还款！”的段子，还没来得及完成自己在朋友圈刷屏的命运，95号汽油就又在第五轮的上涨里，正式进入了“9元时代”。此刻电动车车主们，或许在庆幸早买早享受、不买要加油。但真正赚到了大便宜的，还是押注了油价上涨的对冲基金们。美国外汇对冲基金CFM旗下追踪市场信号指数的基金今年以来上涨了15%，押注能源价格上涨为其贡献了收益大头；而伦敦对冲基金 Aspect Capital 旗下的多元投资基金（Diversified fund）今年以来上涨了9%，主要原因也无外乎做多石油及其相关商品价格的上涨。这其中，最兴奋不已的莫过于“原油交易之神”皮埃尔·安杜兰（Pierre Andurand）。据《金融时报》透露，他管理的商品自由交易增强基金（Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund）在短短两个月时间里已经赚取了109%的收益。同样押注油价飙升的，还有“股神”巴菲特和“华尔街狼王”伊坎。这对狭路总相逢的死对头，一个还在对西方石油的疯狂加仓，后者已经狂赚10亿后抛售离场。两年前，WTI5月原油期货价格跌到最低-37.63美元/桶，负油价带来的恐慌还记忆犹新，油价反手已经突破了8年前的高点，超过100美元/桶。那么，在这波史诗级的钻石底大反弹里，谁是最敏锐的那一个呢？01、「油神」安杜兰：大战正酣这一次，安杜兰又押对了。2022年才过去两个多月，“原油交易之神” 皮埃尔·安杜兰（Pierre Andurand）管理的商品自由交易增强基金便因押中油价飙升而上涨了109%。在彭博3月24日的采访中，安杜兰依然看多油价，认为到今年年底甚至会触及200美元。安杜兰认为原油涨到200美元一桶已经近在眼前，Bloomberg此前的2020年，安杜兰已经大显身手。他因为做空“负油价”大赚近3亿美元。在安杜兰大举看空油价的2月份，当时的人们也许怎么样都不会相信55美元的油价会变成负数，但每天花十小时研究病毒资料的安杜兰则坚定地认为，一旦疫情爆发，世界各地将会出现大量封锁区，而这会导致原油的需求量骤减，油价一定会暴跌[3]。果不其然，两个月后，油价跌到了-40美元，安杜兰的预言得以验证。说起来，上一次这么单吊石油还大获全胜的人，依然还是安杜兰。这位全球最大原油对冲基金 Andurand Capital Management 的掌门人，早在2008年的金融危机中，便因精准预测油价暴跌而“一战成名”，那一次，他赚取了210%的收益。只不过，那个时候，安杜兰创办的对冲基金还叫 Blue Glod ，而在他真正被封为“油神”之前，也还有一段弯路要走。2007年，30岁的安杜兰离开了全球最大石油交易商——维多集团（Vitol），创立了属于自己的对冲基金公司。在维多集团时，他被称为是“最能赚钱的交易员之一”，不过，生性不羁爱自由的安杜兰还是离开了维多，自己给自己当老板。创立公司后的第二年安杜兰便开始名声大噪，但开局太顺利，或许不是什么好事。安杜兰的创业之路在2008年一鸣惊人后，开始呈现“高开低走”的颓势，接下来三年多的时间里，他管理的基金一路下跌，收益由正转负，直到2012年4月，毫无起色的 Blue Glod 只好关门谢客。失败没有让安杜兰消沉，仅仅过了八个月，他就选择「赌上自己的名字」再来一次。2013年2月，他浮出对冲基金界，创办了 Andurand Capital Management。他毫不掩饰地直接用自己的名字来命名，显示出比上一次更大的决心。而安杜兰也没有让再信他一次的投资者失望。2014年，安杜兰押中油价暴跌获得了38%的收益率，2016年，他又因押中油价反弹获得了22%的收益率，把石油这一个品种的波动吃干抹净。在原油交易上极具天赋的安杜兰，常常能在油价的剧烈波动中赚得盆满钵满，正因如此，不少人只把他当成一个“时代幸运儿”，一个成也石油、还会败也石油的“大胆狂徒”。毕竟，谁能永远料事如神呢？然而安杜兰却不这么认为。他说自己并不是“交易瘾君子”，也从不盲目下重注，每一次“大手笔”都经过了深入的研究和严密的分析。而安杜兰的“抓大放小”，深入原油一个品种的供需矛盾、多空转换，也的确为他的投资者们赚取了丰厚的回报——2008年至今，安杜兰管理的基金累计收益翻了近十倍。而这一次对油价飙升的重押，也不过是安杜兰“下赌注式”交易风格的再现，他只是在能力圈里又做了一直以来最擅长的事。02、「股神」巴菲特：卷土重来比起安杜兰的信手拈来，巴菲特在石油上的投资就稍显坎坷了。资料显示，巴菲特今年3月1日开始重新建仓西方石油，并在3月4日、3月11日连续两次加仓，将西方石油买成了自己的第九大重仓股，买入成本从每股46.76美元到56.60美元不等。截至3月21日，西方石油的股价已经涨到了60.96美元，距巴菲特第一次买入时上涨了30%。之所以说「重新建仓」，主要是因为他之前曾经摔过一跤。从巴菲特对西方石油的历史持仓来看，他此前在这只股票上的操作可谓是“卖在了黎明前，买在了涨价后”，到目前为止，巴菲特在西方石油上很难说赚到了大钱。早在2019年，西方石油要收购阿纳达科石油公司（Anadarko Petroleum），便以优先股的形式向巴菲特募资，除了支付8%的年股息，还附带有普通股的认购期权，执行价格为62.5美元。也就是说，西方石油除了要对巴菲特分红派息外还会偿还他一部分的普通股。而从巴菲特2019年的持仓变化中可以看出，他的确对西方石油进行了增持。然而，信心十足的巴菲特等来的却是疫情这只黑天鹅，让油价在2020年遭遇了暴跌。彼时的西方石油又因收购阿纳达科石油而陷入财务危机，股价从年初的40多美元一路跌到了一季度末的8.8美元。面对如此状况，巴菲特只好卖掉了西方石油的股票，到2020年二季度，巴菲特的持仓中便已不见西方石油的身影。对于这笔失败的投资，巴菲特在接受采访时表示，自己的确是误判了油价走势。稍显意外的是，一年多后，巴菲特却又以50美元左右的价格重新买入了当初15美元左右卖出的西方石油，迅速认错。向来以价值投资著称、致力于寻找好生意的巴菲特，按理说并不偏好强周期、高beta的能源行业，而西方石油作为典型的周期股，为什么屡次出现在巴菲特的持仓中呢？根据其过往的投资经历推断，稳定增值的类消费逻辑或许是巴菲特投资周期股的主要原因[5]。具体放在西方石油身上，是它拥有稳定的竞争格局和较高的股息支付。西方石油作为美国第四大石油和天然气公司，在经历了美页岩油行业大规模并购重组后，行业竞争格局趋于稳定，同时，西方石油即使在金融危机和页岩革命期间也维持了稳定的股息支付，而当前，伴随着油价上涨，西方石油的财务状况也得以修复，更能为股息支付提供稳定的资金支持。其实，巴菲特早就“看中了”西方石油，2019年买入优先股便是最好的证明。只是2020年外部环境的剧烈变化让巴菲特做了一些现在看来并不明智的操作，还止过损。但是2020年亏的只是普通股下跌的钱，而巴菲特仍享受了优先股的分红派息。如今油价上涨，巴菲特再次看到了西方石油的买入时机，就算付出比之前更高的成本，“股神”依然愿意卷土重来。03、「狼王」伊坎：见好就收就在“股神”巴菲特加仓西方石油之际，另一边，“华尔街狼王”伊坎已全部抛售西方石油剩余股票，赚取了10亿美元。1936年出生于纽约皇后区的伊坎，被《财富》称为“这个星球上最成功的投机者”。这位犹太人从纽约大学辍学后便加入了军营，在那里，他是小有名气的扑克牌高手。退伍后，伊坎便成为了一名股票经纪人，开始了他“华尔街之狼”的投资生涯。伊坎的特写，图片来源：Icahn: The Restless Billionaire，HBO从1961年第一次走进证券交易所至今，伊坎主导了无数次“恶意收购”事件，他经常大量买入看好企业的股票，成为该公司的战略股东并干涉公司的管理决策，促使股价在短期内快速上涨。某种程度上，伊坎从投资理念的根源上，就是巴菲特的“敌人”。伊坎并不关心企业发展，与其像巴菲特说的那样陪伴企业成长，他只想通过买卖股票获利。1985年，看好石油行业的伊坎准备收购菲力浦石油公司，此时，另一家财团开出了更高的收购价格想要“截胡”菲力浦，而势在必得的伊坎也加大马力进行提价，但对方依然不肯放弃，甚至又进一步抬高了价格，对伊坎步步紧逼，就在这样多次来回之后，伊坎猛然将手上的股票全部卖出，在这轮股价“推涨”中赚了上亿美元。而他在西方石油这只股票的投资上，也尽显“狼王”本色。早在2019年，伊坎和巴菲特罕见地同时都持有了西方石油的股票，但当西方石油想要收购阿纳达科石油公司（Anadarko Petroleum）时，两人却出现了分歧。由于收购需要一大笔昂贵的资金（100亿美元）就得进行债务融资，伊坎对此提出了反对意见。西方石油的首席执行官薇姬·霍鲁布（Vicki Hollub）执意要达成这笔交易，最终以优先股的方式向巴菲特募资，承诺8%的年股息并附带股权认购期权。对于霍鲁布的这个做法，伊坎十分不满，他认为此举不但“便宜了”巴菲特，对西方石油来说也完全没有好处。不久之后的2020年3月，负债累累的西方石油又受到油价暴跌的影响，股价一路下跌，巴菲特清仓了西方石油。此情此景让伊坎愤怒不已，再次翻出旧账——要不是霍鲁布一意孤行，巴菲特“助纣为虐”，西方石油何至于沦落至此？生气没用，为了能够罢免霍鲁布，这位“狼王”一路提高自己在西方石油上的话语权，在短短几个月里，就把持股比例从2.5%提升到了10%[14]。虽然他的罢免计划最后以和解协议告终，但客观上伊坎也成功地在股价低位抄底了一大堆筹码。如今，西方石油终于迎来股价飙涨，这位“不关心企业发展，只想通过买卖股票获利”的投机派也顺势在近期清仓了这只股票，兑现收益。伊坎此时的套利离场，与其说是看空油价，倒不如说是终于报复了西方石油曾经辜负了他。清仓后的伊坎，就像那些拉黑你还要通知你的微博网友一样，在3月6日致西方石油董事会的信中表示，我清仓了，而且2020年因为和解协议而安排到董事会里的两位代表，也会辞职离开。反正对于伊坎来说，表达他对油价看法的方式也很多。据《华尔街日报》的报道，伊坎目前仍持有约5亿美元价值的西方石油公司认股权证。除此之外，他还拿着其它能源公司的股票，比如液化天然气最大生产商Cheniere能源公司(LNG)，以及炼油商CVR能源公司(CVI)。总之，两年前想通过持股西方石油干涉该公司战略决策的伊坎并没有如愿以偿，如今好不容易等到股价上涨，“不相为谋”的巴菲特又跑步进场，获利10亿的伊坎决定“揣着胜利的果实”互道一声拜拜，也就在情理之中了。正可谓，此时不走，更待何时？04、尾声石油还是同样的石油，只是一千个基金经理眼中有一千种投资价值判断。在游戏的上半场，“油神”安杜兰激战正酣，“狼王”伊坎硕果累累，“股神”巴菲特则重回战场。他们一个是屡战屡胜的原油交易大神，另一对则是在西方石油上「积怨已深」的老对手。押注、交易、持有，孰高孰低，恐怕还要再把眼光拉长到下半场。毕竟谁能笑到最后，最终不被贝塔反噬，是周期品对所有投资者的终极考验。油价还会继续上涨吗？没人知道确定的答案。不过，相比石油，处在相对静止闭环中的人或许更想知道的，菜价还会涨多少？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030064731,"gmtCreate":1645581801174,"gmtModify":1676534042570,"author":{"id":"3566999773176722","authorId":"3566999773176722","name":"新航起飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70cc82561a181e1c00587b5cbc04e466","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566999773176722","authorIdStr":"3566999773176722"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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