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2021-04-17

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Einhorn: "The Market Is Fractured And In The Process Of Breaking Completely"

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In general, the investment environment – especially from mid-February through the end of the quarter – was favorable as value outperformed growth, and interest rates and inflation expectations rose.\"</p><p>He then asks if the tide has<i><b>finally</b></i>turned from Growth to Value, noting that \"after a very tough decade, we have only just begun a recovery as shown in this 45-year chart from Goldman Sachs research:\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5db342a0e7b68b8405ce6d4041b71a0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Part of the shift from growth to value, Einhorn writes, may be coming from higher inflation and inflation expectations. As measured by the inflation swap market, 10-year inflation expectations fell from 2.9% in September 2012 to 0.8% in March 2020. The only significant intervening bounce came in 2016, when expectations jumped from 1.5% to 2.3% on expectations of a major stimulus deal from the Trump admin (which never materialized). It is hardly a coincidence that that was the only year in the last decade in which value outperformed growth, as the Greenlight head notes. Fast forward to now, when after bottoming in March 2020, inflation expectations have recovered to 2.5%. The trend became clearer in the middle of May, and value started outperforming growth then, and especially since the middle of February. Indeed, aince May 15, the value-heavy Greenlight returned 80% of the S&amp;P 500 index with half the net exposure.</p><p>Einhorn is even more optimistic about the future when it comes to the \"growth to value\" rotation:</p><blockquote><i>When the time comes, we will have to figure out how to perform better in deflationary periods. But for now, we believe inflation is only going one way – higher – and we are optimistic about our prospects. The wind is now at our backs. The economy is in full recovery mode. Household balance sheets are stronger than they have been in a long time and household income growth was up 13% in February compared to last year. And this is before the latest $1.9 trillion – with a “T” – pandemic relief stimulus. Corporate capital spending is booming. There are shortages and bottlenecks everywhere. Last month nearly one million jobs returned. There are signs of an emerging labor shortage.</i></blockquote><p>As for the Fed, the Greenlight boss writes that \"it fundamentally changed its framework last August. It no longer seems to care that monetary policy works with a lag. Actually, it has embraced an asymmetrical inflation policy: The Fed wants to be ahead of the curve on the downside to protect<s>the stock market and corporate bondholders</s>the economy. Behind the curve is fine on the way up no matter how frothy the stock market the recovery is. Now, it says it is only going to react to actual inflation that exceeds its 2% target for a period of time.\"</p><p>The letter then goes on to muse how the Fed will know when it is blowing the next bubble, and to stop:</p><blockquote><i>... the Fed has indicated that it believes any abnormally high inflation will be transitory. We wonder, how will the Fed know?</i> <i><b>Do price increases come with a label that says “transitory”?</b></i> <i>Our sense is that no matter how hot inflation gets in the coming months, the Fed will continue with zero interest rates and large-scale asset purchases. After all, the U.S. Treasury has a lot of debt to sell and it isn’t clear who, other than the Fed, can absorb the supply.</i></blockquote><p>It's not just Powell who is throwing caution to the wind: so are such mainstream econ \"experts\" as John Oliver:</p><blockquote><i>The bipartisan idea that deficits don’t matter has even reached popular culture. John Oliverdedicated an entire episodeof Last Week Tonight to browbeating anyone who is concerned about the growing national debt. His argument boiled down to: (1) nobody knows how much debt is too much; (2) we have a good need to spend money now; and (3) it won’t be a problem until inflation shows up, and we can deal with it then.</i></blockquote><p>To this, Einhorn's response is simple: \"Though one can debate whether the official government statistics are contrived to avoid capturing inflation\" - and as we have repeatedly noted, inflation is now decidedly a political measurement, one which has been gamed for decades to make it appears as low as possible \"shortages and bottlenecks accompanied by rising demand can only be solved through increased capacity and higher prices. We have also reset the baseline income for non-working adults; it will take higher wages to bring those marginally attached to the labor force back to work.\"</p><p>Concluding this part of the letter, Einhorn writes that while the Fed says it has the tools to fight inflation (and according to Bernanke can cut it in<i>15 minutes</i>), \"it remains to be seen if it will have the stomach to use them when the time comes. That<b>is a discussion for another day. Right now, we remain positioned for rising inflation and inflation expectations.</b>\"</p><p>The Greenlight letter then goes on to lay out just how it plans to capture these rising inflation expectations, listing its top positions as follows, and how they performed in the frist quarter:</p><ul><li><b>Brighthouse Financial (BHF, +22%)</b>benefitted from rising interest rates;</li><li><b>Danimer Scientific (DNMR, +61%)</b>began its life as a public company;</li><li><b>Concentrix (CNXC, +52%)</b>benefitted from strong demand and rising estimates;</li><li><b>Resideo Technologies (REZI, +33%)</b>was helped by the strong housing market;</li><li><b>Change Healthcare (CHNG, +18%)</b>agreed to be acquired by UnitedHealthcare;</li><li><b>AerCap Holdings (AER, +29%)</b>agreed to acquire GE Capital’s aircraft leasing business (GECAS) at a discount; and</li><li><b>An undisclosed healthcare short (-41%)</b>fell due to reduced government reimbursement for its product.</li></ul><p><i>(incidentally, at quarter-end, Greenlight's largest disclosed long positions were Atlas Air Worldwide, Brighthouse Financial, Change Healthcare, Danimer Scientific and Green Brick Partners, with a net average exposure of 118% long and 81% short).</i></p><p>Which is not to say that there were no glitches. One was underperformance by homebuilder and land-developer GRBK, the fund's largest position (more on this in the full letter below). The other performance drag was - as usual- Greenlight's \"short basket\" of bubble stocks.</p><p>What follows next is a tour de force from Einhorn lashing out at all the ways the market is broken, and how the Reddit insanity of Q1 exposed it for all to see:</p><blockquote><i>In late January, the market came to focus on companies with large short interests. Despite having a diversified portfolio, a number of our positions fell into this group and experienced sudden, sharp rises. We adjusted to the dynamic by reducing our exposure to single name shorts, both in number and sizing. To mitigate the potentially uncomfortable net long bias that would have resulted, we added macro hedges of market index and index option shorts. While we do not expect this to be a permanent change, we will evaluate and modify as we go.</i> <i><b>The performance of our short portfolio in 2020 and in early 2021 was unacceptable, so change is certainly needed.</b></i> <i>If we swing a little less hard, we should hit more balls. We have also revised our internal analyst incentive structure to fully emphasize alpha creation.Much has been made of the short-squeezes in late January. In fact, Congress held hearings, where it called the leaders of Robinhood, Melvin Capital and Citadel and an individual investor who made a great call on GameStop (GME) to testify. We have a few thoughts about this to share.</i> <i><b>First, it is very healthy for market participants to discuss and debate stocks.</b></i> <i>This is true both privately and publicly. There are rules about fraud and manipulation that need to be followed,</i> <i><b>but investors discussing why they think GME (or any other stock) should go up or down ought to be encouraged. There is no reason to drag anyone before Congress for making a stock pick.</b></i> <i>Second, it is also fine to make bad stock picks.</i> <i><b>If a hedge fund takes a big position in a stock and is wrong, it loses money. Isn’t this how it is supposed to work?</b></i> <i>Third,</i> <i><b>payment for order flow is just disguised commissions.</b></i> <i>We are in a world where consumers, especially young ones, expect internet services to be free, or at least free to them. A quote widely attributed to Richard Serra about commercial TV in 1973 says it best: “You’re not the customer; you’re the product.”</i> <i><b>If you want the broker to work for you, pay a commission.</b></i> <i>Fourth, Robinhood suspended trading in certain stocks because it was undercapitalized. It is possible that it wasn’t following the regulatory requirements. A regulatory sanction is probably appropriate – but as we’ll discuss below, we won’t be holding our breath.</i></blockquote><p>The punchline:<i>Einhorn slamming Chamath and Elon for pouring the \"real jet fuel\" on the GME squeeze:</i></p><blockquote><i>Finally, we note that the real jet fuel on the GME squeeze came from Chamath Palihapitiya and Elon Musk, whose appearances on TV and Twitter, respectively, at a critical moment further destabilized the situation.</i> <i><b>Mr. Palihapitiya controls SoFi, which competes with Robinhood, and left us with the impression that by destabilizing GME he could harm a competitor.</b></i> <i>As for Mr. Musk,</i> <i><b>we are going to defend him, half-heartedly. If regulators wanted Elon Musk to stop manipulating stocks, they should have done so with more than a light slap on the wrist when they accused him of manipulating Tesla’s shares in 2018. The laws don’t apply to him and he can do whatever he wants.</b></i> <i>Many who would never support defunding the police have supported – and for all intents and purposes have succeeded – in almost completely defanging, if not defunding, the regulators. For the most part, quasi-anarchy appears to rule in markets.</i> <i><b>Sure, Dr. Michael Burry, famed for his role in The Big Short, reportedly received a visit from the SEC after tweeting warnings about recent market trends – and decided to stop publicly speaking truth to power. But for the most part, there is no cop on the beat.</b></i> <i>It’s as if there are no financial fraud prosecutors; companies and managements that are emboldened enough to engage in malfeasance have little to fear.</i></blockquote><p>Einhorn then concludes with three anecdotes to demonstrate his argument that this is not only an \"anything goes\" market where crime is rampant, but proving just how broken the market has become.</p><p>First, consider the investigation of Tether by the Office of the Attorney General of New York (OAG). As Einhorn explains, \"tether is a cryptocurrency that is always worth a dollar (the value is “tethered” to the dollar). Tether is one of the largest cryptocurrencies with about $40 billion outstanding, yet it has not been audited or regulated in any serious manner. In theory, Tether is supposed to have $1 of cash backing every Tether issued. Except it didn’t, at least when it was investigated.\" Incidentally, for anyone still confused, Tether is how theChinese launder billions in domestic funds abroad and outside the Chinese firewallas we explained in December, although so far few have the desire to expose this reality. In any case, here is Einhorn's lament:</p><blockquote><i>The OAG conducted a two-year probe and found that Tether deceived clients and the market by overstating reserves and hiding approximately $850 million of losses around the globe. Tether and its sponsor, Bitfinex, “recklessly and unlawfully covered up massive financial losses to keep their scheme going and protect their bottom lines,” said the OAG. Further, “Tether’s claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie.”Did the OAG shut down Tether? Did anyone get arrested or even lose their job? Was the regulatory infrastructure changed to make sure this doesn’t happen again? No, of course not. The OAG assessed an $18.5 million penalty and Tether agreed to discontinue “any trading activity with New Yorkers.” It was as if Bernie Madoff had been told to pay a small fine and stop ripping off New Yorkers, but to go ahead and have fun with the Palm Beach crowd.</i></blockquote><p>Einhorn next highlights one of the stocks most hated by the bearish community: GSX:</p><blockquote>The media is focused on how the banks allowed excessive leverage and poorly (or properly) managed their risks. The real story is how Arch-Egos was able to buy up most of the float of GSX Techedu, <b>causing the stock to soar 400% in the face of unrefuted allegations of massive fraud.</b>The SEC has an ongoing investigation of GSX but appears to not have noticed a single fund (or a small group of funds) essentially cornering the market. A traditionalist could say this was market manipulation and transparently illegal.</blockquote><p>The professional poker player finally points out some of the insane moves observed in pennystocks in Q1, focusing on a tiny deli owner in rural NJ:</p><blockquote><i>Strange things happen to all kinds of stocks. Last year, on one day in June, the stocks of about a dozen bankrupt companies roughly doubled on enormous volume. Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported a boom in penny stocks.Someone pointed us to Hometown International (HWIN), which owns a single deli in rural New Jersey. The deli had $21,772 in sales in 2019 and only $13,976 in 2020, as it was closed due to COVID from March to September.</i> <i><b>HWIN reached a market cap of $113 million on February 8.</b></i> <i>The largest shareholder is also the CEO/CFO/Treasurer and a Director, who also happens to be the wrestling coach of the high school next door to the deli. The pastrami must be amazing. Small investors who get sucked into these situations are likely to be harmed eventually, yet the regulators – who are supposed to be protecting investors – appear to be neither present nor curious.</i></blockquote><p>We don't find it at all surprising that Einhorn's conclusion from his capital markets observations over the past quarter is<i>identical</i>to ours, when we discussed the insane stock moves that dominated much of January and February:</p><blockquote><i><b>\"From a traditional perspective, the market is fractured and possibly in the process of breaking completely.\"</b></i></blockquote><p>Einhorn's full letter is below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519bd51d93865787f487bbfdc930c706\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"496\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1691d37b71b28794a2bc900aaf5b313e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"687\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d1e93a00a6d64936e9c09b9b940dbf\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"719\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c11ad8e34545a98ba8ee9c4fa8a78d9\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"477\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc8253cd105c8e2727495e1d34c6769b\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"719\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e120ac355802479930a1b1e84bf46e3e\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"528\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28989c8e07df2deede3e092055e09e70\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"564\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d526b287d859e129d81853c0be2ace0\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"559\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8599ce79c9573aed1ca3b1266bd3400a\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"534\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae554a242066a92e4095f35260ce325\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"639\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df45fd1c31a9a0b5a376ec0fe6037598\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"522\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72d0f63d22768ed27882dca1e9f6048\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"420\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf93a682ea1bc652b5107e7ecf902b84\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"456\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0326abf9ee7f93425e7d4cb20e1f375\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"657\"></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Einhorn: \"The Market Is Fractured And In The Process Of Breaking Completely\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEinhorn: \"The Market Is Fractured And In The Process Of Breaking Completely\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-16 16:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einhorn-market-fractured-and-process-breaking-completely><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In many ways, David Einhorn's Greenlight appears to be back to its \"new normal\" - in a letter sent to investors, Einhorn writes that Greenlight again underperformed the market and returned -0.1% in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einhorn-market-fractured-and-process-breaking-completely\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einhorn-market-fractured-and-process-breaking-completely","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156411249","content_text":"In many ways, David Einhorn's Greenlight appears to be back to its \"new normal\" - in a letter sent to investors, Einhorn writes that Greenlight again underperformed the market and returned -0.1% in the first quarter, badly underperforming the 6.2% return for the S&P 500 index, before proceeding to bash the Fed, broken markets, Chamath and Elon, the basket of short stocks and much more.That said, even though as Einhorn writes Greenlight made only a handful of portfolio changes and essentially broke even, \"a lot happened. In general, the investment environment – especially from mid-February through the end of the quarter – was favorable as value outperformed growth, and interest rates and inflation expectations rose.\"He then asks if the tide hasfinallyturned from Growth to Value, noting that \"after a very tough decade, we have only just begun a recovery as shown in this 45-year chart from Goldman Sachs research:\"Part of the shift from growth to value, Einhorn writes, may be coming from higher inflation and inflation expectations. As measured by the inflation swap market, 10-year inflation expectations fell from 2.9% in September 2012 to 0.8% in March 2020. The only significant intervening bounce came in 2016, when expectations jumped from 1.5% to 2.3% on expectations of a major stimulus deal from the Trump admin (which never materialized). It is hardly a coincidence that that was the only year in the last decade in which value outperformed growth, as the Greenlight head notes. Fast forward to now, when after bottoming in March 2020, inflation expectations have recovered to 2.5%. The trend became clearer in the middle of May, and value started outperforming growth then, and especially since the middle of February. Indeed, aince May 15, the value-heavy Greenlight returned 80% of the S&P 500 index with half the net exposure.Einhorn is even more optimistic about the future when it comes to the \"growth to value\" rotation:When the time comes, we will have to figure out how to perform better in deflationary periods. But for now, we believe inflation is only going one way – higher – and we are optimistic about our prospects. The wind is now at our backs. The economy is in full recovery mode. Household balance sheets are stronger than they have been in a long time and household income growth was up 13% in February compared to last year. And this is before the latest $1.9 trillion – with a “T” – pandemic relief stimulus. Corporate capital spending is booming. There are shortages and bottlenecks everywhere. Last month nearly one million jobs returned. There are signs of an emerging labor shortage.As for the Fed, the Greenlight boss writes that \"it fundamentally changed its framework last August. It no longer seems to care that monetary policy works with a lag. Actually, it has embraced an asymmetrical inflation policy: The Fed wants to be ahead of the curve on the downside to protectthe stock market and corporate bondholdersthe economy. Behind the curve is fine on the way up no matter how frothy the stock market the recovery is. Now, it says it is only going to react to actual inflation that exceeds its 2% target for a period of time.\"The letter then goes on to muse how the Fed will know when it is blowing the next bubble, and to stop:... the Fed has indicated that it believes any abnormally high inflation will be transitory. We wonder, how will the Fed know? Do price increases come with a label that says “transitory”? Our sense is that no matter how hot inflation gets in the coming months, the Fed will continue with zero interest rates and large-scale asset purchases. After all, the U.S. Treasury has a lot of debt to sell and it isn’t clear who, other than the Fed, can absorb the supply.It's not just Powell who is throwing caution to the wind: so are such mainstream econ \"experts\" as John Oliver:The bipartisan idea that deficits don’t matter has even reached popular culture. John Oliverdedicated an entire episodeof Last Week Tonight to browbeating anyone who is concerned about the growing national debt. His argument boiled down to: (1) nobody knows how much debt is too much; (2) we have a good need to spend money now; and (3) it won’t be a problem until inflation shows up, and we can deal with it then.To this, Einhorn's response is simple: \"Though one can debate whether the official government statistics are contrived to avoid capturing inflation\" - and as we have repeatedly noted, inflation is now decidedly a political measurement, one which has been gamed for decades to make it appears as low as possible \"shortages and bottlenecks accompanied by rising demand can only be solved through increased capacity and higher prices. We have also reset the baseline income for non-working adults; it will take higher wages to bring those marginally attached to the labor force back to work.\"Concluding this part of the letter, Einhorn writes that while the Fed says it has the tools to fight inflation (and according to Bernanke can cut it in15 minutes), \"it remains to be seen if it will have the stomach to use them when the time comes. Thatis a discussion for another day. Right now, we remain positioned for rising inflation and inflation expectations.\"The Greenlight letter then goes on to lay out just how it plans to capture these rising inflation expectations, listing its top positions as follows, and how they performed in the frist quarter:Brighthouse Financial (BHF, +22%)benefitted from rising interest rates;Danimer Scientific (DNMR, +61%)began its life as a public company;Concentrix (CNXC, +52%)benefitted from strong demand and rising estimates;Resideo Technologies (REZI, +33%)was helped by the strong housing market;Change Healthcare (CHNG, +18%)agreed to be acquired by UnitedHealthcare;AerCap Holdings (AER, +29%)agreed to acquire GE Capital’s aircraft leasing business (GECAS) at a discount; andAn undisclosed healthcare short (-41%)fell due to reduced government reimbursement for its product.(incidentally, at quarter-end, Greenlight's largest disclosed long positions were Atlas Air Worldwide, Brighthouse Financial, Change Healthcare, Danimer Scientific and Green Brick Partners, with a net average exposure of 118% long and 81% short).Which is not to say that there were no glitches. One was underperformance by homebuilder and land-developer GRBK, the fund's largest position (more on this in the full letter below). The other performance drag was - as usual- Greenlight's \"short basket\" of bubble stocks.What follows next is a tour de force from Einhorn lashing out at all the ways the market is broken, and how the Reddit insanity of Q1 exposed it for all to see:In late January, the market came to focus on companies with large short interests. Despite having a diversified portfolio, a number of our positions fell into this group and experienced sudden, sharp rises. We adjusted to the dynamic by reducing our exposure to single name shorts, both in number and sizing. To mitigate the potentially uncomfortable net long bias that would have resulted, we added macro hedges of market index and index option shorts. While we do not expect this to be a permanent change, we will evaluate and modify as we go. The performance of our short portfolio in 2020 and in early 2021 was unacceptable, so change is certainly needed. If we swing a little less hard, we should hit more balls. We have also revised our internal analyst incentive structure to fully emphasize alpha creation.Much has been made of the short-squeezes in late January. In fact, Congress held hearings, where it called the leaders of Robinhood, Melvin Capital and Citadel and an individual investor who made a great call on GameStop (GME) to testify. We have a few thoughts about this to share. First, it is very healthy for market participants to discuss and debate stocks. This is true both privately and publicly. There are rules about fraud and manipulation that need to be followed, but investors discussing why they think GME (or any other stock) should go up or down ought to be encouraged. There is no reason to drag anyone before Congress for making a stock pick. Second, it is also fine to make bad stock picks. If a hedge fund takes a big position in a stock and is wrong, it loses money. Isn’t this how it is supposed to work? Third, payment for order flow is just disguised commissions. We are in a world where consumers, especially young ones, expect internet services to be free, or at least free to them. A quote widely attributed to Richard Serra about commercial TV in 1973 says it best: “You’re not the customer; you’re the product.” If you want the broker to work for you, pay a commission. Fourth, Robinhood suspended trading in certain stocks because it was undercapitalized. It is possible that it wasn’t following the regulatory requirements. A regulatory sanction is probably appropriate – but as we’ll discuss below, we won’t be holding our breath.The punchline:Einhorn slamming Chamath and Elon for pouring the \"real jet fuel\" on the GME squeeze:Finally, we note that the real jet fuel on the GME squeeze came from Chamath Palihapitiya and Elon Musk, whose appearances on TV and Twitter, respectively, at a critical moment further destabilized the situation. Mr. Palihapitiya controls SoFi, which competes with Robinhood, and left us with the impression that by destabilizing GME he could harm a competitor. As for Mr. Musk, we are going to defend him, half-heartedly. If regulators wanted Elon Musk to stop manipulating stocks, they should have done so with more than a light slap on the wrist when they accused him of manipulating Tesla’s shares in 2018. The laws don’t apply to him and he can do whatever he wants. Many who would never support defunding the police have supported – and for all intents and purposes have succeeded – in almost completely defanging, if not defunding, the regulators. For the most part, quasi-anarchy appears to rule in markets. Sure, Dr. Michael Burry, famed for his role in The Big Short, reportedly received a visit from the SEC after tweeting warnings about recent market trends – and decided to stop publicly speaking truth to power. But for the most part, there is no cop on the beat. It’s as if there are no financial fraud prosecutors; companies and managements that are emboldened enough to engage in malfeasance have little to fear.Einhorn then concludes with three anecdotes to demonstrate his argument that this is not only an \"anything goes\" market where crime is rampant, but proving just how broken the market has become.First, consider the investigation of Tether by the Office of the Attorney General of New York (OAG). As Einhorn explains, \"tether is a cryptocurrency that is always worth a dollar (the value is “tethered” to the dollar). Tether is one of the largest cryptocurrencies with about $40 billion outstanding, yet it has not been audited or regulated in any serious manner. In theory, Tether is supposed to have $1 of cash backing every Tether issued. Except it didn’t, at least when it was investigated.\" Incidentally, for anyone still confused, Tether is how theChinese launder billions in domestic funds abroad and outside the Chinese firewallas we explained in December, although so far few have the desire to expose this reality. In any case, here is Einhorn's lament:The OAG conducted a two-year probe and found that Tether deceived clients and the market by overstating reserves and hiding approximately $850 million of losses around the globe. Tether and its sponsor, Bitfinex, “recklessly and unlawfully covered up massive financial losses to keep their scheme going and protect their bottom lines,” said the OAG. Further, “Tether’s claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie.”Did the OAG shut down Tether? Did anyone get arrested or even lose their job? Was the regulatory infrastructure changed to make sure this doesn’t happen again? No, of course not. The OAG assessed an $18.5 million penalty and Tether agreed to discontinue “any trading activity with New Yorkers.” It was as if Bernie Madoff had been told to pay a small fine and stop ripping off New Yorkers, but to go ahead and have fun with the Palm Beach crowd.Einhorn next highlights one of the stocks most hated by the bearish community: GSX:The media is focused on how the banks allowed excessive leverage and poorly (or properly) managed their risks. The real story is how Arch-Egos was able to buy up most of the float of GSX Techedu, causing the stock to soar 400% in the face of unrefuted allegations of massive fraud.The SEC has an ongoing investigation of GSX but appears to not have noticed a single fund (or a small group of funds) essentially cornering the market. A traditionalist could say this was market manipulation and transparently illegal.The professional poker player finally points out some of the insane moves observed in pennystocks in Q1, focusing on a tiny deli owner in rural NJ:Strange things happen to all kinds of stocks. Last year, on one day in June, the stocks of about a dozen bankrupt companies roughly doubled on enormous volume. Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported a boom in penny stocks.Someone pointed us to Hometown International (HWIN), which owns a single deli in rural New Jersey. The deli had $21,772 in sales in 2019 and only $13,976 in 2020, as it was closed due to COVID from March to September. HWIN reached a market cap of $113 million on February 8. The largest shareholder is also the CEO/CFO/Treasurer and a Director, who also happens to be the wrestling coach of the high school next door to the deli. The pastrami must be amazing. Small investors who get sucked into these situations are likely to be harmed eventually, yet the regulators – who are supposed to be protecting investors – appear to be neither present nor curious.We don't find it at all surprising that Einhorn's conclusion from his capital markets observations over the past quarter isidenticalto ours, when we discussed the insane stock moves that dominated much of January and February:\"From a traditional perspective, the market is fractured and possibly in the process of breaking completely.\"Einhorn's full letter is below:","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344795087,"gmtCreate":1618442214349,"gmtModify":1704710811513,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Glance]&nbsp;","listText":"[Glance]&nbsp;","text":"[Glance]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344795087","repostId":"1186838018","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186838018","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618413882,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186838018?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-14 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Electric vehicle stocks were down","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186838018","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(April 14) Electric vehicle stocks were down. Shares of Nio was down  6.62% to $33.13 and Nio was 3.","content":"<p>(April 14)&nbsp;Electric vehicle stocks were down.&nbsp;Shares of Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;down&nbsp;&nbsp;6.62%&nbsp;to&nbsp;$33.13&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;3.14% lower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4dccabfcd5d058051278d972adbce18\" tg-width=\"294\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Xpeng Motors launched the P5 on Wednesday, a sedan with new self-driving features.&nbsp;The P5 is equipped with so-called Lidar to aid Xpeng’s driverless system called XPILOT.&nbsp;Xpeng is hoping to close to gap with Tesla as well as race ahead of other rivals such as Nio and Li Auto.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Electric vehicle stocks were down</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElectric vehicle stocks were down\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-14 23:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 14)&nbsp;Electric vehicle stocks were down.&nbsp;Shares of Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;down&nbsp;&nbsp;6.62%&nbsp;to&nbsp;$33.13&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nio&nbsp;was&nbsp;3.14% lower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4dccabfcd5d058051278d972adbce18\" tg-width=\"294\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Xpeng Motors launched the P5 on Wednesday, a sedan with new self-driving features.&nbsp;The P5 is equipped with so-called Lidar to aid Xpeng’s driverless system called XPILOT.&nbsp;Xpeng is hoping to close to gap with Tesla as well as race ahead of other rivals such as Nio and Li Auto.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186838018","content_text":"(April 14) Electric vehicle stocks were down. Shares of Nio was down  6.62% to $33.13 and Nio was 3.14% lower.Xpeng Motors launched the P5 on Wednesday, a sedan with new self-driving features. The P5 is equipped with so-called Lidar to aid Xpeng’s driverless system called XPILOT. Xpeng is hoping to close to gap with Tesla as well as race ahead of other rivals such as Nio and Li Auto.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345795725,"gmtCreate":1618350973567,"gmtModify":1704709426428,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Lovely]&nbsp;","listText":"[Lovely]&nbsp;","text":"[Lovely]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345795725","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194635432","pubTimestamp":1618236146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194635432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194635432","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Coinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.</li><li>With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.</li><li>Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.</li><li>Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.</li></ul><p>I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?</p><p>At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory Landscape</b></p><p>The US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.</p><p>Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings</p><p>Coin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.</p><p>Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at &gt;20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.</p><p>SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)</p><p>In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.</p><p>XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.</p><p>Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.</p><p>Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf68da62452a794c5daaa60ac989840\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCap</p><p><b>Other Regulatory Risks</b></p><p>Regulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.</p><p>Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.</p><p>Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All Market</b></p><p>There are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.</p><p>Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.</p><p>On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.</p><p>In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).</p><p>Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.</p><p>In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01ca6dafd2b567bd920c5e9f8edc8fbb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>The tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.</p><p>Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8396c363230e04130e43f63d653956\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2327ad800bd3524a3aaa57e3a0b17f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 5:Coinbase's Historical Valuations<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1fd86395ee1b0e38f1f6fd472f84bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Verdict</b></p><p>In my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.</p><p>The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 22:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194635432","content_text":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory LandscapeThe US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listingsCoin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at >20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCapOther Regulatory RisksRegulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All MarketThere are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.Source:BusinessofAppsValuationThe tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 5:Coinbase's Historical ValuationsSource:BusinessofAppsVerdictIn my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345016666,"gmtCreate":1618264018255,"gmtModify":1704708215654,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345016666","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194635432","pubTimestamp":1618236146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194635432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194635432","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Coinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.</li><li>With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.</li><li>Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.</li><li>Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.</li></ul><p>I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?</p><p>At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory Landscape</b></p><p>The US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.</p><p>Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings</p><p>Coin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.</p><p>Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at &gt;20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.</p><p>SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)</p><p>In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.</p><p>XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.</p><p>Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.</p><p>Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf68da62452a794c5daaa60ac989840\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCap</p><p><b>Other Regulatory Risks</b></p><p>Regulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.</p><p>Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.</p><p>Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All Market</b></p><p>There are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.</p><p>Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.</p><p>On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.</p><p>In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).</p><p>Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.</p><p>In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01ca6dafd2b567bd920c5e9f8edc8fbb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>The tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.</p><p>Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8396c363230e04130e43f63d653956\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2327ad800bd3524a3aaa57e3a0b17f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 5:Coinbase's Historical Valuations<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1fd86395ee1b0e38f1f6fd472f84bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Verdict</b></p><p>In my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.</p><p>The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 22:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194635432","content_text":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory LandscapeThe US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listingsCoin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at >20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCapOther Regulatory RisksRegulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All MarketThere are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.Source:BusinessofAppsValuationThe tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 5:Coinbase's Historical ValuationsSource:BusinessofAppsVerdictIn my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566864959466445","authorId":"3566864959466445","name":"TWJ84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d62371dc219f84f4803649d52e3f8109","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"comment bsck pls","text":"comment bsck pls","html":"comment bsck pls"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342114219,"gmtCreate":1618190419431,"gmtModify":1704707256430,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342114219","repostId":"1137529737","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137529737","pubTimestamp":1618184239,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137529737?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 07:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Chase, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, Coinbase, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137529737","media":"Barrons","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of ","content":"<p>First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of the largest U.S. banks. Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo report on Wednesday, followed&nbsp;by Bank of&nbsp;America and Citigroup on Thursday and Morgan Stanley on Friday.</p><p>Other notable companies reporting this week include industrial&nbsp;supplier&nbsp;Fastenalon Tuesday.Delta Air Lines,PepsiCo,and&nbsp;UnitedHealth Group&nbsp;publish results on Thursday. And&nbsp;Kansas City Southern&nbsp;reports on Friday.&nbsp; A total of 22&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;companies report this week, followed by 64 next week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac3c413681d3a9e134223c4d1a02d883\" tg-width=\"1410\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It’s also a busy week for economic data. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for March and the National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Then on Thursday, the Census Bureau reports retail sales data for March. And on Friday, the University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April.</p><p>Housing-market data out this week include the National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April on Thursday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for March on Friday.</p><p><b>Monday 4/12</b></p><p>Nvidia&nbsp;hosts its 2021 investor day in conjunction with its GPU Technology conference. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will give the keynote address.</p><p><b>Tuesday 4/13</b></p><p>Fastenal reports quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports the consumer price index for March. Economists forecast a 0.4% monthly increase, matching the February data. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2%, after edging up 0.1% in February.</p><p><b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 98 reading, higher than February’s 95.8.</p><p><b>Wednesday 4/14</b></p><p><b>Earnings season begins</b>&nbsp;in earnest with some of the largest money-center and investment banks reporting. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs Group release first-quarter results before the market open.</p><p>First Republic Bankreleases earnings.</p><p><b>Coinbase Global</b>&nbsp;is set to&nbsp;make its Wall Street debut&nbsp;on Wednesday through a direct listing of its shares on the Nasdaq.</p><p><b>The BLS reports</b>&nbsp;export and import price data for March. Expectations are for a 1% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.8%. This compares with gains of 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively, in February.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases the beige book for the second of eight times this year. The beige book gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions from the 12 Fed districts.</p><p><b>Thursday 4/15</b></p><p>Bank of America,BlackRock,Charles Schwab,Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo,PPG Industries,Truist Financial,U.S. Bancorp,and UnitedHealth Group report quarterly results.</p><p><b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April. Economists forecast an 84.5 reading, greater than the March data. Any reading above 50 indicates that home builders are bullish on the housing market for the next six months.</p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports retail sales data for March. The consensus call is for consumer spending to rise 1.3% month over month, after declining 3% in February.</p><p><b>Friday 4/16</b></p><p>Bank of New York Mellon,Citizens Financial Group,Kansas City Southern, Morgan Stanley,PNC Financial Services Group,and&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;hold conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p><b>The University of Michigan</b>&nbsp;releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April. Expectations are for an 88 reading. March’s 84.9 figure was the highest since a year earlier.</p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports new residential construction data for March. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.61 million housing starts, a 13% month-over-month increase.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Chase, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, Coinbase, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Chase, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, Coinbase, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 07:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-nvidia-goldman-sachs-delta-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51618167609?mod=hp_LEAD_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of the largest U.S. banks. Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo report on Wednesday, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-nvidia-goldman-sachs-delta-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51618167609?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利","JPM":"摩根大通",".DJI":"道琼斯","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达","GS":"高盛",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","WFC":"富国银行",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-nvidia-goldman-sachs-delta-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51618167609?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137529737","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of the largest U.S. banks. Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo report on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America and Citigroup on Thursday and Morgan Stanley on Friday.Other notable companies reporting this week include industrial supplier Fastenalon Tuesday.Delta Air Lines,PepsiCo,and UnitedHealth Group publish results on Thursday. And Kansas City Southern reports on Friday.  A total of 22 S&P 500 companies report this week, followed by 64 next week.It’s also a busy week for economic data. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for March and the National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Then on Thursday, the Census Bureau reports retail sales data for March. And on Friday, the University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April.Housing-market data out this week include the National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April on Thursday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for March on Friday.Monday 4/12Nvidia hosts its 2021 investor day in conjunction with its GPU Technology conference. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will give the keynote address.Tuesday 4/13Fastenal reports quarterly results.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for March. Economists forecast a 0.4% monthly increase, matching the February data. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2%, after edging up 0.1% in February.The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 98 reading, higher than February’s 95.8.Wednesday 4/14Earnings season begins in earnest with some of the largest money-center and investment banks reporting. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs Group release first-quarter results before the market open.First Republic Bankreleases earnings.Coinbase Global is set to make its Wall Street debut on Wednesday through a direct listing of its shares on the Nasdaq.The BLS reports export and import price data for March. Expectations are for a 1% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.8%. This compares with gains of 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively, in February.The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the second of eight times this year. The beige book gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions from the 12 Fed districts.Thursday 4/15Bank of America,BlackRock,Charles Schwab,Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo,PPG Industries,Truist Financial,U.S. Bancorp,and UnitedHealth Group report quarterly results.The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April. Economists forecast an 84.5 reading, greater than the March data. Any reading above 50 indicates that home builders are bullish on the housing market for the next six months.The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for March. The consensus call is for consumer spending to rise 1.3% month over month, after declining 3% in February.Friday 4/16Bank of New York Mellon,Citizens Financial Group,Kansas City Southern, Morgan Stanley,PNC Financial Services Group,and State Street hold conference calls to discuss earnings.The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April. Expectations are for an 88 reading. March’s 84.9 figure was the highest since a year earlier.The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for March. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.61 million housing starts, a 13% month-over-month increase.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342012455,"gmtCreate":1618126616977,"gmtModify":1704706848952,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342012455","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142324412","pubTimestamp":1617982207,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142324412?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142324412","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.Feared chip shortage  was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese go","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.</li>\n <li>Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.</li>\n <li>Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.</li>\n <li>Feared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e0f3343d69719839f9b8f1d337c3984\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The stock price of&nbsp;XPEV&nbsp;has been converging with the performance of the S&amp;P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.</p>\n<p><i>The frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&amp;P 500 more closely</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f04001d604ecc7892ef3a76c498578b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><i>XPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68446a741f9f97afc10f2149c4e13e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA</span></p>\n<p><b>Industry and commercial positives</b></p>\n<p>Optimism on EVs and&nbsp;strong industry growth&nbsp;rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Deliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.</b>While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked&nbsp;in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered&nbsp;20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.</li>\n <li><b>Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.</b>XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.</li>\n <li><b>Listing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.</b>Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and&nbsp;LI&nbsp;intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of note, in late March, XPEV held an&nbsp;autonomous driving expedition&nbsp;covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the&nbsp;competitive landscape&nbsp;against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results&nbsp;performed better&nbsp;than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.</p>\n<p><b>XPEV's improving financials</b></p>\n<p>Now that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.</p>\n<p>Another point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities &amp; equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.</p>\n<p><i>XPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8258dce0cc10e8118a23afce7655bed\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"737\"><span>*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><b>XPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa975ce545e950a20f809bcc7f698ef6\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"594\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Conclusion and Risks</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.</p>\n<p>Competition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.</p>\n<p>Much feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.</p>\n<p>On a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Inc.: A Reawakening\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1142324412","content_text":"Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.\nFeared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.\n\nPhoto by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nThe stock price of XPEV has been converging with the performance of the S&P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.\nThe frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&P 500 more closely\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV\nSource: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA\nIndustry and commercial positives\nOptimism on EVs and strong industry growth rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):\n\nDeliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered 20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.\nGovernment support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.\nListing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and LI intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.\n\nOf note, in late March, XPEV held an autonomous driving expedition covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the competitive landscape against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results performed better than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.\nXPEV's improving financials\nNow that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.\nAnother point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.\nMeanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities & equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.\nXPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation\n*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle\nXPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nConclusion and Risks\nXPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.\nCompetition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.\nMuch feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.\nOn a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342012351,"gmtCreate":1618126589573,"gmtModify":1704706847977,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342012351","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142324412","pubTimestamp":1617982207,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142324412?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142324412","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.Feared chip shortage  was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese go","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.</li>\n <li>Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.</li>\n <li>Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.</li>\n <li>Feared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e0f3343d69719839f9b8f1d337c3984\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The stock price of&nbsp;XPEV&nbsp;has been converging with the performance of the S&amp;P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.</p>\n<p><i>The frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&amp;P 500 more closely</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f04001d604ecc7892ef3a76c498578b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><i>XPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68446a741f9f97afc10f2149c4e13e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA</span></p>\n<p><b>Industry and commercial positives</b></p>\n<p>Optimism on EVs and&nbsp;strong industry growth&nbsp;rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Deliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.</b>While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked&nbsp;in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered&nbsp;20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.</li>\n <li><b>Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.</b>XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.</li>\n <li><b>Listing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.</b>Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and&nbsp;LI&nbsp;intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of note, in late March, XPEV held an&nbsp;autonomous driving expedition&nbsp;covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the&nbsp;competitive landscape&nbsp;against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results&nbsp;performed better&nbsp;than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.</p>\n<p><b>XPEV's improving financials</b></p>\n<p>Now that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.</p>\n<p>Another point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities &amp; equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.</p>\n<p><i>XPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8258dce0cc10e8118a23afce7655bed\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"737\"><span>*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><b>XPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa975ce545e950a20f809bcc7f698ef6\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"594\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Conclusion and Risks</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.</p>\n<p>Competition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.</p>\n<p>Much feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.</p>\n<p>On a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Inc.: A Reawakening\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1142324412","content_text":"Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.\nFeared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.\n\nPhoto by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nThe stock price of XPEV has been converging with the performance of the S&P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.\nThe frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&P 500 more closely\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV\nSource: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA\nIndustry and commercial positives\nOptimism on EVs and strong industry growth rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):\n\nDeliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered 20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.\nGovernment support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.\nListing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and LI intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.\n\nOf note, in late March, XPEV held an autonomous driving expedition covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the competitive landscape against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results performed better than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.\nXPEV's improving financials\nNow that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.\nAnother point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.\nMeanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities & equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.\nXPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation\n*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle\nXPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nConclusion and Risks\nXPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.\nCompetition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.\nMuch feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.\nOn a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":345016666,"gmtCreate":1618264018255,"gmtModify":1704708215654,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345016666","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194635432","pubTimestamp":1618236146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194635432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194635432","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Coinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.</li><li>With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.</li><li>Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.</li><li>Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.</li></ul><p>I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?</p><p>At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory Landscape</b></p><p>The US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.</p><p>Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings</p><p>Coin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.</p><p>Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at &gt;20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.</p><p>SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)</p><p>In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.</p><p>XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.</p><p>Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.</p><p>Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf68da62452a794c5daaa60ac989840\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCap</p><p><b>Other Regulatory Risks</b></p><p>Regulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.</p><p>Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.</p><p>Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All Market</b></p><p>There are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.</p><p>Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.</p><p>On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.</p><p>In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).</p><p>Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.</p><p>In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01ca6dafd2b567bd920c5e9f8edc8fbb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>The tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.</p><p>Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8396c363230e04130e43f63d653956\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2327ad800bd3524a3aaa57e3a0b17f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 5:Coinbase's Historical Valuations<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1fd86395ee1b0e38f1f6fd472f84bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Verdict</b></p><p>In my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.</p><p>The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 22:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194635432","content_text":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory LandscapeThe US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listingsCoin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at >20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCapOther Regulatory RisksRegulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All MarketThere are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.Source:BusinessofAppsValuationThe tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 5:Coinbase's Historical ValuationsSource:BusinessofAppsVerdictIn my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566864959466445","authorId":"3566864959466445","name":"TWJ84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d62371dc219f84f4803649d52e3f8109","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"comment bsck pls","text":"comment bsck pls","html":"comment bsck pls"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342114219,"gmtCreate":1618190419431,"gmtModify":1704707256430,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342114219","repostId":"1137529737","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137529737","pubTimestamp":1618184239,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137529737?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 07:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Chase, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, Coinbase, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137529737","media":"Barrons","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of ","content":"<p>First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of the largest U.S. banks. Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo report on Wednesday, followed&nbsp;by Bank of&nbsp;America and Citigroup on Thursday and Morgan Stanley on Friday.</p><p>Other notable companies reporting this week include industrial&nbsp;supplier&nbsp;Fastenalon Tuesday.Delta Air Lines,PepsiCo,and&nbsp;UnitedHealth Group&nbsp;publish results on Thursday. And&nbsp;Kansas City Southern&nbsp;reports on Friday.&nbsp; A total of 22&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;companies report this week, followed by 64 next week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac3c413681d3a9e134223c4d1a02d883\" tg-width=\"1410\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It’s also a busy week for economic data. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for March and the National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Then on Thursday, the Census Bureau reports retail sales data for March. And on Friday, the University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April.</p><p>Housing-market data out this week include the National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April on Thursday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for March on Friday.</p><p><b>Monday 4/12</b></p><p>Nvidia&nbsp;hosts its 2021 investor day in conjunction with its GPU Technology conference. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will give the keynote address.</p><p><b>Tuesday 4/13</b></p><p>Fastenal reports quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports the consumer price index for March. Economists forecast a 0.4% monthly increase, matching the February data. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2%, after edging up 0.1% in February.</p><p><b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 98 reading, higher than February’s 95.8.</p><p><b>Wednesday 4/14</b></p><p><b>Earnings season begins</b>&nbsp;in earnest with some of the largest money-center and investment banks reporting. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs Group release first-quarter results before the market open.</p><p>First Republic Bankreleases earnings.</p><p><b>Coinbase Global</b>&nbsp;is set to&nbsp;make its Wall Street debut&nbsp;on Wednesday through a direct listing of its shares on the Nasdaq.</p><p><b>The BLS reports</b>&nbsp;export and import price data for March. Expectations are for a 1% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.8%. This compares with gains of 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively, in February.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases the beige book for the second of eight times this year. The beige book gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions from the 12 Fed districts.</p><p><b>Thursday 4/15</b></p><p>Bank of America,BlackRock,Charles Schwab,Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo,PPG Industries,Truist Financial,U.S. Bancorp,and UnitedHealth Group report quarterly results.</p><p><b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April. Economists forecast an 84.5 reading, greater than the March data. Any reading above 50 indicates that home builders are bullish on the housing market for the next six months.</p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports retail sales data for March. The consensus call is for consumer spending to rise 1.3% month over month, after declining 3% in February.</p><p><b>Friday 4/16</b></p><p>Bank of New York Mellon,Citizens Financial Group,Kansas City Southern, Morgan Stanley,PNC Financial Services Group,and&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;hold conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p><b>The University of Michigan</b>&nbsp;releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April. Expectations are for an 88 reading. March’s 84.9 figure was the highest since a year earlier.</p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports new residential construction data for March. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.61 million housing starts, a 13% month-over-month increase.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Chase, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, Coinbase, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Chase, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, Coinbase, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 07:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-nvidia-goldman-sachs-delta-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51618167609?mod=hp_LEAD_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of the largest U.S. banks. Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo report on Wednesday, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-nvidia-goldman-sachs-delta-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51618167609?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利","JPM":"摩根大通",".DJI":"道琼斯","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达","GS":"高盛",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","WFC":"富国银行",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-chase-nvidia-goldman-sachs-delta-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51618167609?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137529737","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, beginning as always with results from several of the largest U.S. banks. Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo report on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America and Citigroup on Thursday and Morgan Stanley on Friday.Other notable companies reporting this week include industrial supplier Fastenalon Tuesday.Delta Air Lines,PepsiCo,and UnitedHealth Group publish results on Thursday. And Kansas City Southern reports on Friday.  A total of 22 S&P 500 companies report this week, followed by 64 next week.It’s also a busy week for economic data. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for March and the National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Then on Thursday, the Census Bureau reports retail sales data for March. And on Friday, the University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April.Housing-market data out this week include the National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April on Thursday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for March on Friday.Monday 4/12Nvidia hosts its 2021 investor day in conjunction with its GPU Technology conference. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will give the keynote address.Tuesday 4/13Fastenal reports quarterly results.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the consumer price index for March. Economists forecast a 0.4% monthly increase, matching the February data. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2%, after edging up 0.1% in February.The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 98 reading, higher than February’s 95.8.Wednesday 4/14Earnings season begins in earnest with some of the largest money-center and investment banks reporting. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs Group release first-quarter results before the market open.First Republic Bankreleases earnings.Coinbase Global is set to make its Wall Street debut on Wednesday through a direct listing of its shares on the Nasdaq.The BLS reports export and import price data for March. Expectations are for a 1% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.8%. This compares with gains of 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively, in February.The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the second of eight times this year. The beige book gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions from the 12 Fed districts.Thursday 4/15Bank of America,BlackRock,Charles Schwab,Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo,PPG Industries,Truist Financial,U.S. Bancorp,and UnitedHealth Group report quarterly results.The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for April. Economists forecast an 84.5 reading, greater than the March data. Any reading above 50 indicates that home builders are bullish on the housing market for the next six months.The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for March. The consensus call is for consumer spending to rise 1.3% month over month, after declining 3% in February.Friday 4/16Bank of New York Mellon,Citizens Financial Group,Kansas City Southern, Morgan Stanley,PNC Financial Services Group,and State Street hold conference calls to discuss earnings.The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April. Expectations are for an 88 reading. March’s 84.9 figure was the highest since a year earlier.The Census Bureau reports new residential construction data for March. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.61 million housing starts, a 13% month-over-month increase.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379083193,"gmtCreate":1618637881212,"gmtModify":1704713717753,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/379083193","repostId":"1156411249","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156411249","pubTimestamp":1618562497,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156411249?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 16:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Einhorn: \"The Market Is Fractured And In The Process Of Breaking Completely\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156411249","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In many ways, David Einhorn's Greenlight appears to be back to its \"new normal\" - in a letter sent t","content":"<p>In many ways, David Einhorn's Greenlight appears to be back to its \"new normal\" - in a letter sent to investors, Einhorn writes that Greenlight again underperformed the market and returned -0.1% in the first quarter, badly underperforming the 6.2% return for the S&amp;P 500 index, before proceeding to bash the Fed, broken markets, Chamath and Elon, the basket of short stocks and much more.</p><p>That said, even though as Einhorn writes Greenlight made only a handful of portfolio changes and essentially broke even, \"a lot happened. In general, the investment environment – especially from mid-February through the end of the quarter – was favorable as value outperformed growth, and interest rates and inflation expectations rose.\"</p><p>He then asks if the tide has<i><b>finally</b></i>turned from Growth to Value, noting that \"after a very tough decade, we have only just begun a recovery as shown in this 45-year chart from Goldman Sachs research:\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5db342a0e7b68b8405ce6d4041b71a0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Part of the shift from growth to value, Einhorn writes, may be coming from higher inflation and inflation expectations. As measured by the inflation swap market, 10-year inflation expectations fell from 2.9% in September 2012 to 0.8% in March 2020. The only significant intervening bounce came in 2016, when expectations jumped from 1.5% to 2.3% on expectations of a major stimulus deal from the Trump admin (which never materialized). It is hardly a coincidence that that was the only year in the last decade in which value outperformed growth, as the Greenlight head notes. Fast forward to now, when after bottoming in March 2020, inflation expectations have recovered to 2.5%. The trend became clearer in the middle of May, and value started outperforming growth then, and especially since the middle of February. Indeed, aince May 15, the value-heavy Greenlight returned 80% of the S&amp;P 500 index with half the net exposure.</p><p>Einhorn is even more optimistic about the future when it comes to the \"growth to value\" rotation:</p><blockquote><i>When the time comes, we will have to figure out how to perform better in deflationary periods. But for now, we believe inflation is only going one way – higher – and we are optimistic about our prospects. The wind is now at our backs. The economy is in full recovery mode. Household balance sheets are stronger than they have been in a long time and household income growth was up 13% in February compared to last year. And this is before the latest $1.9 trillion – with a “T” – pandemic relief stimulus. Corporate capital spending is booming. There are shortages and bottlenecks everywhere. Last month nearly one million jobs returned. There are signs of an emerging labor shortage.</i></blockquote><p>As for the Fed, the Greenlight boss writes that \"it fundamentally changed its framework last August. It no longer seems to care that monetary policy works with a lag. Actually, it has embraced an asymmetrical inflation policy: The Fed wants to be ahead of the curve on the downside to protect<s>the stock market and corporate bondholders</s>the economy. Behind the curve is fine on the way up no matter how frothy the stock market the recovery is. Now, it says it is only going to react to actual inflation that exceeds its 2% target for a period of time.\"</p><p>The letter then goes on to muse how the Fed will know when it is blowing the next bubble, and to stop:</p><blockquote><i>... the Fed has indicated that it believes any abnormally high inflation will be transitory. We wonder, how will the Fed know?</i> <i><b>Do price increases come with a label that says “transitory”?</b></i> <i>Our sense is that no matter how hot inflation gets in the coming months, the Fed will continue with zero interest rates and large-scale asset purchases. After all, the U.S. Treasury has a lot of debt to sell and it isn’t clear who, other than the Fed, can absorb the supply.</i></blockquote><p>It's not just Powell who is throwing caution to the wind: so are such mainstream econ \"experts\" as John Oliver:</p><blockquote><i>The bipartisan idea that deficits don’t matter has even reached popular culture. John Oliverdedicated an entire episodeof Last Week Tonight to browbeating anyone who is concerned about the growing national debt. His argument boiled down to: (1) nobody knows how much debt is too much; (2) we have a good need to spend money now; and (3) it won’t be a problem until inflation shows up, and we can deal with it then.</i></blockquote><p>To this, Einhorn's response is simple: \"Though one can debate whether the official government statistics are contrived to avoid capturing inflation\" - and as we have repeatedly noted, inflation is now decidedly a political measurement, one which has been gamed for decades to make it appears as low as possible \"shortages and bottlenecks accompanied by rising demand can only be solved through increased capacity and higher prices. We have also reset the baseline income for non-working adults; it will take higher wages to bring those marginally attached to the labor force back to work.\"</p><p>Concluding this part of the letter, Einhorn writes that while the Fed says it has the tools to fight inflation (and according to Bernanke can cut it in<i>15 minutes</i>), \"it remains to be seen if it will have the stomach to use them when the time comes. That<b>is a discussion for another day. Right now, we remain positioned for rising inflation and inflation expectations.</b>\"</p><p>The Greenlight letter then goes on to lay out just how it plans to capture these rising inflation expectations, listing its top positions as follows, and how they performed in the frist quarter:</p><ul><li><b>Brighthouse Financial (BHF, +22%)</b>benefitted from rising interest rates;</li><li><b>Danimer Scientific (DNMR, +61%)</b>began its life as a public company;</li><li><b>Concentrix (CNXC, +52%)</b>benefitted from strong demand and rising estimates;</li><li><b>Resideo Technologies (REZI, +33%)</b>was helped by the strong housing market;</li><li><b>Change Healthcare (CHNG, +18%)</b>agreed to be acquired by UnitedHealthcare;</li><li><b>AerCap Holdings (AER, +29%)</b>agreed to acquire GE Capital’s aircraft leasing business (GECAS) at a discount; and</li><li><b>An undisclosed healthcare short (-41%)</b>fell due to reduced government reimbursement for its product.</li></ul><p><i>(incidentally, at quarter-end, Greenlight's largest disclosed long positions were Atlas Air Worldwide, Brighthouse Financial, Change Healthcare, Danimer Scientific and Green Brick Partners, with a net average exposure of 118% long and 81% short).</i></p><p>Which is not to say that there were no glitches. One was underperformance by homebuilder and land-developer GRBK, the fund's largest position (more on this in the full letter below). The other performance drag was - as usual- Greenlight's \"short basket\" of bubble stocks.</p><p>What follows next is a tour de force from Einhorn lashing out at all the ways the market is broken, and how the Reddit insanity of Q1 exposed it for all to see:</p><blockquote><i>In late January, the market came to focus on companies with large short interests. Despite having a diversified portfolio, a number of our positions fell into this group and experienced sudden, sharp rises. We adjusted to the dynamic by reducing our exposure to single name shorts, both in number and sizing. To mitigate the potentially uncomfortable net long bias that would have resulted, we added macro hedges of market index and index option shorts. While we do not expect this to be a permanent change, we will evaluate and modify as we go.</i> <i><b>The performance of our short portfolio in 2020 and in early 2021 was unacceptable, so change is certainly needed.</b></i> <i>If we swing a little less hard, we should hit more balls. We have also revised our internal analyst incentive structure to fully emphasize alpha creation.Much has been made of the short-squeezes in late January. In fact, Congress held hearings, where it called the leaders of Robinhood, Melvin Capital and Citadel and an individual investor who made a great call on GameStop (GME) to testify. We have a few thoughts about this to share.</i> <i><b>First, it is very healthy for market participants to discuss and debate stocks.</b></i> <i>This is true both privately and publicly. There are rules about fraud and manipulation that need to be followed,</i> <i><b>but investors discussing why they think GME (or any other stock) should go up or down ought to be encouraged. There is no reason to drag anyone before Congress for making a stock pick.</b></i> <i>Second, it is also fine to make bad stock picks.</i> <i><b>If a hedge fund takes a big position in a stock and is wrong, it loses money. Isn’t this how it is supposed to work?</b></i> <i>Third,</i> <i><b>payment for order flow is just disguised commissions.</b></i> <i>We are in a world where consumers, especially young ones, expect internet services to be free, or at least free to them. A quote widely attributed to Richard Serra about commercial TV in 1973 says it best: “You’re not the customer; you’re the product.”</i> <i><b>If you want the broker to work for you, pay a commission.</b></i> <i>Fourth, Robinhood suspended trading in certain stocks because it was undercapitalized. It is possible that it wasn’t following the regulatory requirements. A regulatory sanction is probably appropriate – but as we’ll discuss below, we won’t be holding our breath.</i></blockquote><p>The punchline:<i>Einhorn slamming Chamath and Elon for pouring the \"real jet fuel\" on the GME squeeze:</i></p><blockquote><i>Finally, we note that the real jet fuel on the GME squeeze came from Chamath Palihapitiya and Elon Musk, whose appearances on TV and Twitter, respectively, at a critical moment further destabilized the situation.</i> <i><b>Mr. Palihapitiya controls SoFi, which competes with Robinhood, and left us with the impression that by destabilizing GME he could harm a competitor.</b></i> <i>As for Mr. Musk,</i> <i><b>we are going to defend him, half-heartedly. If regulators wanted Elon Musk to stop manipulating stocks, they should have done so with more than a light slap on the wrist when they accused him of manipulating Tesla’s shares in 2018. The laws don’t apply to him and he can do whatever he wants.</b></i> <i>Many who would never support defunding the police have supported – and for all intents and purposes have succeeded – in almost completely defanging, if not defunding, the regulators. For the most part, quasi-anarchy appears to rule in markets.</i> <i><b>Sure, Dr. Michael Burry, famed for his role in The Big Short, reportedly received a visit from the SEC after tweeting warnings about recent market trends – and decided to stop publicly speaking truth to power. But for the most part, there is no cop on the beat.</b></i> <i>It’s as if there are no financial fraud prosecutors; companies and managements that are emboldened enough to engage in malfeasance have little to fear.</i></blockquote><p>Einhorn then concludes with three anecdotes to demonstrate his argument that this is not only an \"anything goes\" market where crime is rampant, but proving just how broken the market has become.</p><p>First, consider the investigation of Tether by the Office of the Attorney General of New York (OAG). As Einhorn explains, \"tether is a cryptocurrency that is always worth a dollar (the value is “tethered” to the dollar). Tether is one of the largest cryptocurrencies with about $40 billion outstanding, yet it has not been audited or regulated in any serious manner. In theory, Tether is supposed to have $1 of cash backing every Tether issued. Except it didn’t, at least when it was investigated.\" Incidentally, for anyone still confused, Tether is how theChinese launder billions in domestic funds abroad and outside the Chinese firewallas we explained in December, although so far few have the desire to expose this reality. In any case, here is Einhorn's lament:</p><blockquote><i>The OAG conducted a two-year probe and found that Tether deceived clients and the market by overstating reserves and hiding approximately $850 million of losses around the globe. Tether and its sponsor, Bitfinex, “recklessly and unlawfully covered up massive financial losses to keep their scheme going and protect their bottom lines,” said the OAG. Further, “Tether’s claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie.”Did the OAG shut down Tether? Did anyone get arrested or even lose their job? Was the regulatory infrastructure changed to make sure this doesn’t happen again? No, of course not. The OAG assessed an $18.5 million penalty and Tether agreed to discontinue “any trading activity with New Yorkers.” It was as if Bernie Madoff had been told to pay a small fine and stop ripping off New Yorkers, but to go ahead and have fun with the Palm Beach crowd.</i></blockquote><p>Einhorn next highlights one of the stocks most hated by the bearish community: GSX:</p><blockquote>The media is focused on how the banks allowed excessive leverage and poorly (or properly) managed their risks. The real story is how Arch-Egos was able to buy up most of the float of GSX Techedu, <b>causing the stock to soar 400% in the face of unrefuted allegations of massive fraud.</b>The SEC has an ongoing investigation of GSX but appears to not have noticed a single fund (or a small group of funds) essentially cornering the market. A traditionalist could say this was market manipulation and transparently illegal.</blockquote><p>The professional poker player finally points out some of the insane moves observed in pennystocks in Q1, focusing on a tiny deli owner in rural NJ:</p><blockquote><i>Strange things happen to all kinds of stocks. Last year, on one day in June, the stocks of about a dozen bankrupt companies roughly doubled on enormous volume. Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported a boom in penny stocks.Someone pointed us to Hometown International (HWIN), which owns a single deli in rural New Jersey. The deli had $21,772 in sales in 2019 and only $13,976 in 2020, as it was closed due to COVID from March to September.</i> <i><b>HWIN reached a market cap of $113 million on February 8.</b></i> <i>The largest shareholder is also the CEO/CFO/Treasurer and a Director, who also happens to be the wrestling coach of the high school next door to the deli. The pastrami must be amazing. Small investors who get sucked into these situations are likely to be harmed eventually, yet the regulators – who are supposed to be protecting investors – appear to be neither present nor curious.</i></blockquote><p>We don't find it at all surprising that Einhorn's conclusion from his capital markets observations over the past quarter is<i>identical</i>to ours, when we discussed the insane stock moves that dominated much of January and February:</p><blockquote><i><b>\"From a traditional perspective, the market is fractured and possibly in the process of breaking completely.\"</b></i></blockquote><p>Einhorn's full letter is below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519bd51d93865787f487bbfdc930c706\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"496\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1691d37b71b28794a2bc900aaf5b313e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"687\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d1e93a00a6d64936e9c09b9b940dbf\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"719\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c11ad8e34545a98ba8ee9c4fa8a78d9\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"477\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc8253cd105c8e2727495e1d34c6769b\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"719\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e120ac355802479930a1b1e84bf46e3e\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"528\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28989c8e07df2deede3e092055e09e70\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"564\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d526b287d859e129d81853c0be2ace0\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"559\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8599ce79c9573aed1ca3b1266bd3400a\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"534\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae554a242066a92e4095f35260ce325\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"639\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df45fd1c31a9a0b5a376ec0fe6037598\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"522\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72d0f63d22768ed27882dca1e9f6048\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"420\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf93a682ea1bc652b5107e7ecf902b84\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"456\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0326abf9ee7f93425e7d4cb20e1f375\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"657\"></p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEinhorn: \"The Market Is Fractured And In The Process Of Breaking Completely\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-16 16:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einhorn-market-fractured-and-process-breaking-completely><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In many ways, David Einhorn's Greenlight appears to be back to its \"new normal\" - in a letter sent to investors, Einhorn writes that Greenlight again underperformed the market and returned -0.1% in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einhorn-market-fractured-and-process-breaking-completely\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einhorn-market-fractured-and-process-breaking-completely","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156411249","content_text":"In many ways, David Einhorn's Greenlight appears to be back to its \"new normal\" - in a letter sent to investors, Einhorn writes that Greenlight again underperformed the market and returned -0.1% in the first quarter, badly underperforming the 6.2% return for the S&P 500 index, before proceeding to bash the Fed, broken markets, Chamath and Elon, the basket of short stocks and much more.That said, even though as Einhorn writes Greenlight made only a handful of portfolio changes and essentially broke even, \"a lot happened. In general, the investment environment – especially from mid-February through the end of the quarter – was favorable as value outperformed growth, and interest rates and inflation expectations rose.\"He then asks if the tide hasfinallyturned from Growth to Value, noting that \"after a very tough decade, we have only just begun a recovery as shown in this 45-year chart from Goldman Sachs research:\"Part of the shift from growth to value, Einhorn writes, may be coming from higher inflation and inflation expectations. As measured by the inflation swap market, 10-year inflation expectations fell from 2.9% in September 2012 to 0.8% in March 2020. The only significant intervening bounce came in 2016, when expectations jumped from 1.5% to 2.3% on expectations of a major stimulus deal from the Trump admin (which never materialized). It is hardly a coincidence that that was the only year in the last decade in which value outperformed growth, as the Greenlight head notes. Fast forward to now, when after bottoming in March 2020, inflation expectations have recovered to 2.5%. The trend became clearer in the middle of May, and value started outperforming growth then, and especially since the middle of February. Indeed, aince May 15, the value-heavy Greenlight returned 80% of the S&P 500 index with half the net exposure.Einhorn is even more optimistic about the future when it comes to the \"growth to value\" rotation:When the time comes, we will have to figure out how to perform better in deflationary periods. But for now, we believe inflation is only going one way – higher – and we are optimistic about our prospects. The wind is now at our backs. The economy is in full recovery mode. Household balance sheets are stronger than they have been in a long time and household income growth was up 13% in February compared to last year. And this is before the latest $1.9 trillion – with a “T” – pandemic relief stimulus. Corporate capital spending is booming. There are shortages and bottlenecks everywhere. Last month nearly one million jobs returned. There are signs of an emerging labor shortage.As for the Fed, the Greenlight boss writes that \"it fundamentally changed its framework last August. It no longer seems to care that monetary policy works with a lag. Actually, it has embraced an asymmetrical inflation policy: The Fed wants to be ahead of the curve on the downside to protectthe stock market and corporate bondholdersthe economy. Behind the curve is fine on the way up no matter how frothy the stock market the recovery is. Now, it says it is only going to react to actual inflation that exceeds its 2% target for a period of time.\"The letter then goes on to muse how the Fed will know when it is blowing the next bubble, and to stop:... the Fed has indicated that it believes any abnormally high inflation will be transitory. We wonder, how will the Fed know? Do price increases come with a label that says “transitory”? Our sense is that no matter how hot inflation gets in the coming months, the Fed will continue with zero interest rates and large-scale asset purchases. After all, the U.S. Treasury has a lot of debt to sell and it isn’t clear who, other than the Fed, can absorb the supply.It's not just Powell who is throwing caution to the wind: so are such mainstream econ \"experts\" as John Oliver:The bipartisan idea that deficits don’t matter has even reached popular culture. John Oliverdedicated an entire episodeof Last Week Tonight to browbeating anyone who is concerned about the growing national debt. His argument boiled down to: (1) nobody knows how much debt is too much; (2) we have a good need to spend money now; and (3) it won’t be a problem until inflation shows up, and we can deal with it then.To this, Einhorn's response is simple: \"Though one can debate whether the official government statistics are contrived to avoid capturing inflation\" - and as we have repeatedly noted, inflation is now decidedly a political measurement, one which has been gamed for decades to make it appears as low as possible \"shortages and bottlenecks accompanied by rising demand can only be solved through increased capacity and higher prices. We have also reset the baseline income for non-working adults; it will take higher wages to bring those marginally attached to the labor force back to work.\"Concluding this part of the letter, Einhorn writes that while the Fed says it has the tools to fight inflation (and according to Bernanke can cut it in15 minutes), \"it remains to be seen if it will have the stomach to use them when the time comes. Thatis a discussion for another day. Right now, we remain positioned for rising inflation and inflation expectations.\"The Greenlight letter then goes on to lay out just how it plans to capture these rising inflation expectations, listing its top positions as follows, and how they performed in the frist quarter:Brighthouse Financial (BHF, +22%)benefitted from rising interest rates;Danimer Scientific (DNMR, +61%)began its life as a public company;Concentrix (CNXC, +52%)benefitted from strong demand and rising estimates;Resideo Technologies (REZI, +33%)was helped by the strong housing market;Change Healthcare (CHNG, +18%)agreed to be acquired by UnitedHealthcare;AerCap Holdings (AER, +29%)agreed to acquire GE Capital’s aircraft leasing business (GECAS) at a discount; andAn undisclosed healthcare short (-41%)fell due to reduced government reimbursement for its product.(incidentally, at quarter-end, Greenlight's largest disclosed long positions were Atlas Air Worldwide, Brighthouse Financial, Change Healthcare, Danimer Scientific and Green Brick Partners, with a net average exposure of 118% long and 81% short).Which is not to say that there were no glitches. One was underperformance by homebuilder and land-developer GRBK, the fund's largest position (more on this in the full letter below). The other performance drag was - as usual- Greenlight's \"short basket\" of bubble stocks.What follows next is a tour de force from Einhorn lashing out at all the ways the market is broken, and how the Reddit insanity of Q1 exposed it for all to see:In late January, the market came to focus on companies with large short interests. Despite having a diversified portfolio, a number of our positions fell into this group and experienced sudden, sharp rises. We adjusted to the dynamic by reducing our exposure to single name shorts, both in number and sizing. To mitigate the potentially uncomfortable net long bias that would have resulted, we added macro hedges of market index and index option shorts. While we do not expect this to be a permanent change, we will evaluate and modify as we go. The performance of our short portfolio in 2020 and in early 2021 was unacceptable, so change is certainly needed. If we swing a little less hard, we should hit more balls. We have also revised our internal analyst incentive structure to fully emphasize alpha creation.Much has been made of the short-squeezes in late January. In fact, Congress held hearings, where it called the leaders of Robinhood, Melvin Capital and Citadel and an individual investor who made a great call on GameStop (GME) to testify. We have a few thoughts about this to share. First, it is very healthy for market participants to discuss and debate stocks. This is true both privately and publicly. There are rules about fraud and manipulation that need to be followed, but investors discussing why they think GME (or any other stock) should go up or down ought to be encouraged. There is no reason to drag anyone before Congress for making a stock pick. Second, it is also fine to make bad stock picks. If a hedge fund takes a big position in a stock and is wrong, it loses money. Isn’t this how it is supposed to work? Third, payment for order flow is just disguised commissions. We are in a world where consumers, especially young ones, expect internet services to be free, or at least free to them. A quote widely attributed to Richard Serra about commercial TV in 1973 says it best: “You’re not the customer; you’re the product.” If you want the broker to work for you, pay a commission. Fourth, Robinhood suspended trading in certain stocks because it was undercapitalized. It is possible that it wasn’t following the regulatory requirements. A regulatory sanction is probably appropriate – but as we’ll discuss below, we won’t be holding our breath.The punchline:Einhorn slamming Chamath and Elon for pouring the \"real jet fuel\" on the GME squeeze:Finally, we note that the real jet fuel on the GME squeeze came from Chamath Palihapitiya and Elon Musk, whose appearances on TV and Twitter, respectively, at a critical moment further destabilized the situation. Mr. Palihapitiya controls SoFi, which competes with Robinhood, and left us with the impression that by destabilizing GME he could harm a competitor. As for Mr. Musk, we are going to defend him, half-heartedly. If regulators wanted Elon Musk to stop manipulating stocks, they should have done so with more than a light slap on the wrist when they accused him of manipulating Tesla’s shares in 2018. The laws don’t apply to him and he can do whatever he wants. Many who would never support defunding the police have supported – and for all intents and purposes have succeeded – in almost completely defanging, if not defunding, the regulators. For the most part, quasi-anarchy appears to rule in markets. Sure, Dr. Michael Burry, famed for his role in The Big Short, reportedly received a visit from the SEC after tweeting warnings about recent market trends – and decided to stop publicly speaking truth to power. But for the most part, there is no cop on the beat. It’s as if there are no financial fraud prosecutors; companies and managements that are emboldened enough to engage in malfeasance have little to fear.Einhorn then concludes with three anecdotes to demonstrate his argument that this is not only an \"anything goes\" market where crime is rampant, but proving just how broken the market has become.First, consider the investigation of Tether by the Office of the Attorney General of New York (OAG). As Einhorn explains, \"tether is a cryptocurrency that is always worth a dollar (the value is “tethered” to the dollar). Tether is one of the largest cryptocurrencies with about $40 billion outstanding, yet it has not been audited or regulated in any serious manner. In theory, Tether is supposed to have $1 of cash backing every Tether issued. Except it didn’t, at least when it was investigated.\" Incidentally, for anyone still confused, Tether is how theChinese launder billions in domestic funds abroad and outside the Chinese firewallas we explained in December, although so far few have the desire to expose this reality. In any case, here is Einhorn's lament:The OAG conducted a two-year probe and found that Tether deceived clients and the market by overstating reserves and hiding approximately $850 million of losses around the globe. Tether and its sponsor, Bitfinex, “recklessly and unlawfully covered up massive financial losses to keep their scheme going and protect their bottom lines,” said the OAG. Further, “Tether’s claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie.”Did the OAG shut down Tether? Did anyone get arrested or even lose their job? Was the regulatory infrastructure changed to make sure this doesn’t happen again? No, of course not. The OAG assessed an $18.5 million penalty and Tether agreed to discontinue “any trading activity with New Yorkers.” It was as if Bernie Madoff had been told to pay a small fine and stop ripping off New Yorkers, but to go ahead and have fun with the Palm Beach crowd.Einhorn next highlights one of the stocks most hated by the bearish community: GSX:The media is focused on how the banks allowed excessive leverage and poorly (or properly) managed their risks. The real story is how Arch-Egos was able to buy up most of the float of GSX Techedu, causing the stock to soar 400% in the face of unrefuted allegations of massive fraud.The SEC has an ongoing investigation of GSX but appears to not have noticed a single fund (or a small group of funds) essentially cornering the market. A traditionalist could say this was market manipulation and transparently illegal.The professional poker player finally points out some of the insane moves observed in pennystocks in Q1, focusing on a tiny deli owner in rural NJ:Strange things happen to all kinds of stocks. Last year, on one day in June, the stocks of about a dozen bankrupt companies roughly doubled on enormous volume. Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported a boom in penny stocks.Someone pointed us to Hometown International (HWIN), which owns a single deli in rural New Jersey. The deli had $21,772 in sales in 2019 and only $13,976 in 2020, as it was closed due to COVID from March to September. HWIN reached a market cap of $113 million on February 8. The largest shareholder is also the CEO/CFO/Treasurer and a Director, who also happens to be the wrestling coach of the high school next door to the deli. The pastrami must be amazing. Small investors who get sucked into these situations are likely to be harmed eventually, yet the regulators – who are supposed to be protecting investors – appear to be neither present nor curious.We don't find it at all surprising that Einhorn's conclusion from his capital markets observations over the past quarter isidenticalto ours, when we discussed the insane stock moves that dominated much of January and February:\"From a traditional perspective, the market is fractured and possibly in the process of breaking completely.\"Einhorn's full letter is below:","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345795725,"gmtCreate":1618350973567,"gmtModify":1704709426428,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Lovely]&nbsp;","listText":"[Lovely]&nbsp;","text":"[Lovely]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345795725","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194635432","pubTimestamp":1618236146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194635432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194635432","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Coinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.</li><li>With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.</li><li>Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.</li><li>Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.</li></ul><p>I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?</p><p>At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory Landscape</b></p><p>The US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.</p><p>Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings</p><p>Coin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.</p><p>Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at &gt;20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.</p><p>SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)</p><p>In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.</p><p>XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.</p><p>Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.</p><p>Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf68da62452a794c5daaa60ac989840\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCap</p><p><b>Other Regulatory Risks</b></p><p>Regulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.</p><p>Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.</p><p>Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All Market</b></p><p>There are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.</p><p>Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.</p><p>On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.</p><p>In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).</p><p>Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.</p><p>In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01ca6dafd2b567bd920c5e9f8edc8fbb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>The tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.</p><p>Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8396c363230e04130e43f63d653956\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2327ad800bd3524a3aaa57e3a0b17f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 5:Coinbase's Historical Valuations<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1fd86395ee1b0e38f1f6fd472f84bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Verdict</b></p><p>In my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.</p><p>The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 22:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194635432","content_text":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory LandscapeThe US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listingsCoin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at >20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCapOther Regulatory RisksRegulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All MarketThere are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.Source:BusinessofAppsValuationThe tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 5:Coinbase's Historical ValuationsSource:BusinessofAppsVerdictIn my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344795087,"gmtCreate":1618442214349,"gmtModify":1704710811513,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Glance]&nbsp;","listText":"[Glance]&nbsp;","text":"[Glance]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344795087","repostId":"1186838018","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342012455,"gmtCreate":1618126616977,"gmtModify":1704706848952,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342012455","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142324412","pubTimestamp":1617982207,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142324412?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142324412","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.Feared chip shortage  was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese go","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.</li>\n <li>Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.</li>\n <li>Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.</li>\n <li>Feared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e0f3343d69719839f9b8f1d337c3984\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The stock price of&nbsp;XPEV&nbsp;has been converging with the performance of the S&amp;P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.</p>\n<p><i>The frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&amp;P 500 more closely</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f04001d604ecc7892ef3a76c498578b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><i>XPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68446a741f9f97afc10f2149c4e13e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA</span></p>\n<p><b>Industry and commercial positives</b></p>\n<p>Optimism on EVs and&nbsp;strong industry growth&nbsp;rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Deliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.</b>While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked&nbsp;in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered&nbsp;20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.</li>\n <li><b>Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.</b>XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.</li>\n <li><b>Listing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.</b>Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and&nbsp;LI&nbsp;intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of note, in late March, XPEV held an&nbsp;autonomous driving expedition&nbsp;covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the&nbsp;competitive landscape&nbsp;against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results&nbsp;performed better&nbsp;than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.</p>\n<p><b>XPEV's improving financials</b></p>\n<p>Now that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.</p>\n<p>Another point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities &amp; equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.</p>\n<p><i>XPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8258dce0cc10e8118a23afce7655bed\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"737\"><span>*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><b>XPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa975ce545e950a20f809bcc7f698ef6\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"594\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Conclusion and Risks</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.</p>\n<p>Competition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.</p>\n<p>Much feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.</p>\n<p>On a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Inc.: A Reawakening\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1142324412","content_text":"Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.\nFeared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.\n\nPhoto by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nThe stock price of XPEV has been converging with the performance of the S&P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.\nThe frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&P 500 more closely\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV\nSource: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA\nIndustry and commercial positives\nOptimism on EVs and strong industry growth rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):\n\nDeliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered 20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.\nGovernment support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.\nListing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and LI intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.\n\nOf note, in late March, XPEV held an autonomous driving expedition covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the competitive landscape against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results performed better than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.\nXPEV's improving financials\nNow that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.\nAnother point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.\nMeanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities & equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.\nXPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation\n*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle\nXPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nConclusion and Risks\nXPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.\nCompetition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.\nMuch feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.\nOn a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342012351,"gmtCreate":1618126589573,"gmtModify":1704706847977,"author":{"id":"3567126812170317","authorId":"3567126812170317","name":"Rogue444","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342012351","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142324412","pubTimestamp":1617982207,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142324412?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142324412","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.Feared chip shortage  was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese go","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.</li>\n <li>Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.</li>\n <li>Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.</li>\n <li>Feared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e0f3343d69719839f9b8f1d337c3984\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The stock price of&nbsp;XPEV&nbsp;has been converging with the performance of the S&amp;P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.</p>\n<p><i>The frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&amp;P 500 more closely</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f04001d604ecc7892ef3a76c498578b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><i>XPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68446a741f9f97afc10f2149c4e13e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA</span></p>\n<p><b>Industry and commercial positives</b></p>\n<p>Optimism on EVs and&nbsp;strong industry growth&nbsp;rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Deliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.</b>While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked&nbsp;in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered&nbsp;20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.</li>\n <li><b>Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.</b>XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.</li>\n <li><b>Listing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.</b>Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and&nbsp;LI&nbsp;intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of note, in late March, XPEV held an&nbsp;autonomous driving expedition&nbsp;covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the&nbsp;competitive landscape&nbsp;against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results&nbsp;performed better&nbsp;than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.</p>\n<p><b>XPEV's improving financials</b></p>\n<p>Now that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.</p>\n<p>Another point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities &amp; equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.</p>\n<p><i>XPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8258dce0cc10e8118a23afce7655bed\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"737\"><span>*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><b>XPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa975ce545e950a20f809bcc7f698ef6\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"594\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Conclusion and Risks</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.</p>\n<p>Competition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.</p>\n<p>Much feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.</p>\n<p>On a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Inc.: A Reawakening\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1142324412","content_text":"Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.\nFeared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.\n\nPhoto by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nThe stock price of XPEV has been converging with the performance of the S&P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.\nThe frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&P 500 more closely\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV\nSource: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA\nIndustry and commercial positives\nOptimism on EVs and strong industry growth rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):\n\nDeliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered 20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.\nGovernment support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.\nListing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and LI intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.\n\nOf note, in late March, XPEV held an autonomous driving expedition covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the competitive landscape against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results performed better than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.\nXPEV's improving financials\nNow that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.\nAnother point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.\nMeanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities & equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.\nXPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation\n*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle\nXPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nConclusion and Risks\nXPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.\nCompetition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.\nMuch feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.\nOn a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}