魔王大大 personal page - To The Moon

魔王大大

魔王大大

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2022-12-17

$AMC Entertainment Preferred(APE)$ to the...

2022-12-17

🤜🤜🤜🤜

2022-12-16

Amc fly to the moon

2022-07-06

$AMC院线(AMC)$to the moon

2022-07-05

$Cryptyde Inc(TYDE)$to the moon

2022-07-04

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$6666

2022-07-03

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$sigh...

2022-07-02

$Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF(METV)$666

2022-06-30

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$die

2022-06-29

$AMC院线(AMC)$666

2022-06-28

$AMC院线(AMC)$666

2022-06-27

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$666

2022-06-26

$AMC院线(AMC)$666

2022-06-25

$amc 666

2022-06-22

$AMC院线(AMC)$to the moon

2022-06-21

$amc 666

2022-06-19

@amc 666

2022-06-18

666 Amc

2022-06-17

Amc 666

2022-06-16

@amc 666

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ETF(METV)$666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044942352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178769925,"gmtCreate":1626838059967,"gmtModify":1703766174367,"author":{"id":"3568712936130316","authorId":"3568712936130316","name":"魔王大大","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b117b6c59b23211bc994189df572d82","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568712936130316","idStr":"3568712936130316"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178769925","repostId":"1166715880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166715880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626836270,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166715880?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 10:57","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Performance \"at the bottom\", Zhang Kun admits his mistake","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166715880","media":"投中网","summary":"面对不断下滑的业绩，张坤也在二季报中罕见“认错”\n\n7月20日凌晨，易方达基金公司公布旗下多只基金产品二季报，其中，“公募一哥”张坤及其管理的4只公募基金再度成为关注的焦点。\n在过去的二季度，张坤管理","content":"<p><b>In the face of declining performance, Zhang Kun also rarely \"admitted mistakes\" in the second quarterly report</b>In the early morning of July 20th, E Fund Company announced the second quarterly reports of many of its fund products. Among them, Zhang Kun, the \"first brother of public offering\", and his four public offering of funds once again became the focus of attention.</p><p>In the past second quarter, the stock positions of four funds managed by Zhang Kun, namely, E Fund Blue Chip Selected Mixed, E Fund Small and Medium Cap Mixed, E Fund Asia Selected Stocks and E Fund High-quality Enterprises Three-year Holding Period Mixed, all decreased to varying degrees. Among them, the share position ratio of E Fund Small and Medium Cap decreased by 23 percentage points compared with the first quarter, and plummeted to the lowest stock position at the end of the quarter since Zhang Kun managed E Fund Small and Medium Cap. In addition, Zhang Kun also adjusted the structure in the second quarter, reducing the allocation of food and beverage industries, increasing the allocation of computer industries, and continuing to position heavily in two financial Hong Kong stocks, China Merchants Bank and Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>According to the data, as of the end of the second quarter, the scale of four funds managed by Zhang Kun was 134.478 billion yuan, a slight increase from 133.109 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter. Among them, blue-chip selection, small-and medium-cap mixture and high-quality enterprises' three-year holding period mixture turned losses into profits in the second quarter, with profits of 5.384 billion yuan, 805 million yuan and 1.122 billion yuan respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a751b2749b319a7c6c42ffdd39684c\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Although the fund size has increased and three funds have turned losses into profits, compared with their peers, the performance of funds managed by Zhang Kun in the second quarter is not ideal. Among them, E Fund's Blue Chip Select and E Fund's Small and Medium-sized Cap ranked 2,833 and 3,187 respectively among the same type of funds (3,403 in total) in the second quarter, while E Fund's Asia Select stocks fell to the penultimate among the same type of funds.</p><p>Faced with the declining performance, Zhang Kun also rarely \"admitted his mistakes\" in the second quarterly report, saying that looking back at his past judgments, he found many mistakes. In addition, Zhang Kun also emphasized that from the current judgment, a decline in expected returns in the next few years may be difficult to avoid.</p><p><b>Stock Position Qi Lower, Reduce Wuliangye Maotai</b></p><p>First of all, let's take a look at the changes in the positions of four funds in Q2 2021.</p><p>According to the report, the stock positions of Zhang Kun's four products all declined to varying degrees in the second quarter. Among them, E Fund's small and medium-sized cap has the largest reduction, and its stock position plummeted from 93.93% at the end of the first quarter to 70.36%. This is the lowest level of the fund since Zhang Kun became the fund manager on September 28, 2012, and it is also the second time that the stock position has dropped below 80% after the third quarter of 2017.</p><p>At the same time, the stock positions of the other three funds have been slightly lowered: the share of stock positions of E Fund's blue-chip selection has dropped from 93.61% to 90.17%; The stock position of E Fund Quality Enterprises decreased from 94.57% to 89.24%; E Fund Asia Select's stock position decreased from 93.17% to 86.45%.</p><p>Specific to the direction of position adjustment, the four funds are different in structural adjustment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1683ff0f2a10d195121cffc0e4f458b6\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Top 10 E Fund Blue Chip Select Positions in Q2 2021</p><p>Compared with the first quarter, E Fund Blue Chip Selection reduced the allocation of computer and other industries and increased the allocation of electronics and other industries in the second quarter. Among the top ten Awkwardness stocks, as in Q1 2021, Blue Chip Select still holds 4 liquor stocks, but their positions have increased and decreased. Among them, Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai decreased to 9.88% and 9.75% from 10.05% and 9.86% in Q1 2021, while the holdings of Luzhou Old Cellar and Yanghe increased from 7.62% and 4.68% to 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively.</p><p>At the same time, Zhang Kun also increased his holdings of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, China Merchants Bank and Tencent Holdings in the second quarter, and reduced his holdings of Meituan. By the end of the second quarter, Hong Kong Stock Exchange has replaced Wuliangye as the largest weight stock in E Fund's blue-chip selection. In addition, Ping An Bank, which accounted for 3.25% of its positions in Q1, fell out of the top ten and was replaced by Aier Ophthalmology. It is worth mentioning that in Q4 2020, Aier Ophthalmology also appeared in the list of the top ten heavyweight stocks selected by E Fund Blue Chip.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf129f55b2095a3ab6cabbe0638cf11a\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Top Ten Small and Medium Cap Positions of E Fund in Q2 2021</p><p>In the second quarter of 2021, E Fund's small and medium-sized caps increased the allocation of computers and other industries while reducing the allocation of food and beverage industries. Specifically, compared with the first quarter, the top ten heavyweight stocks of E Fund's small and medium-sized stocks remained unchanged, but they focused on increasing their holdings of Hang Seng Electronics and Hualan Bio, and reducing their holdings of Tongce Medical and Kweichow Moutai.</p><p>Among them, Wuliangye was greatly reduced by Zhang Kun, falling from the second largest holding stock in Q1 2021 to the seventh largest holding stock, and Meinian Health's holding stock also decreased. In addition, the stock price fell during the reporting period, and it has fallen from the original first holding stock to the sixth largest holding stock.</p><p>Let's look at the mixed three-year holding period of E Fund's high-quality enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75b188fe04c08b16db4160afe2f8ebb0\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Top Ten Mixed Positions of E Fund High-Quality Enterprises with Three-Year Holding Period in Q1 2021</p><p>Similar to the similar operation of E Fund's blue chip selection, the fund reduced the allocation of computer and other industries in the second quarter, and also increased the positions of Luzhou Old Cellar and Yanghe shares, and lightened the positions of Wuliangye. But the difference is that the three-year holding period of E Fund's high-quality enterprises has increased the allocation of pharmaceutical, banking and other industries in this period.</p><p>In addition, the fund also increased its holdings of Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Tencent Holdings in the second quarter, and lightened its positions in Hikvision and Meituan. At present, Luzhou Old Cellar has become the largest holding stock of E Fund's high-quality enterprises in the three-year holding period with a holding ratio of 9.76%. At the same time, Hualan Bio and Jinxin Reproductive fell out of the top ten Awkwardness stocks, and Aier Ophthalmology and Ping An Bank became the new top ten Awkwardness stocks.</p><p>Finally, let's talk about the relatively small scale and E Fund Asia Select.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ad95bd85c15dec4396047e297b788c\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Compared with Q1 this year, Zhang Kun reduced the allocation of consumption and education industries and increased the allocation of banking, real estate and other industries in E Fund Asia Select Fund. In the previous quarter, TAL, New Oriental and STAAR Surgical Co, which were heavily positioned, withdrew from the top ten heavyweight stocks, while Postal Savings Bank of China, China Overseas Land & Investment Co., Ltd. and Vipshop became the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the past second quarter, the profit of E Fund's Asia Select Stock in this period was-316 million yuan, which was still at a loss, and its yield ranked second from the bottom among the same type of funds.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Kun specifically mentioned in the quarterly report that in the second quarter, the stock prices of education and training enterprises fell greatly due to policy expectations, which had a certain negative impact on the net value of the fund. This also made him reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework, hoping to further improve them.</p><p><b>Performance \"at the bottom\", Zhang Kun rarely \"admits mistakes\"</b></p><p>In fact, except E Fund Asia Select, the performance of the other three funds held by Zhang Kun in the second quarter was also unsatisfactory, far behind other similar fund products.</p><p>According to the data, in the past three months, the best performance among similar funds is the flexible allocation mix of Qianhai Open Source New Economy, with a yield of more than 50%, while the yields of E Fund High-quality Enterprises under Zhang Kun with three-year holding period mix, E Fund Blue Chip Selection and E Fund Small and Medium Cap in the second quarter are 10.62%, 5.94% and 2.51% respectively, ranking 2,103, 2,833 and 3,187 respectively among the same type of funds (3,403 in total).</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Kun rarely \"admitted his mistakes\" in the second quarterly report, saying that looking back at his past judgment, he \"found many mistakes\". At the same time, Zhang Kun also expressed his views on the future market in the quarterly report.</p><p>Zhang Kun said that after the epidemic, with the relaxation of global liquidity, global stock markets have risen significantly. For some high-quality companies in industries (technology, medicine, consumption, new energy) that are recognized by the market as having room for long-term growth, in addition to the driving force of performance growth, the valuation has also been significantly improved. In the face of higher and higher levels of P/E, the valuation methods of enterprises are increasingly using forward (such as 2025 or even 2030) market value discounted back to the current year. It seems that only then can investors obtain an acceptable level of return.</p><p>He mentioned that for some companies, when all kinds of assumptions are fulfilled, they may be able to earn a discount rate or a yield slightly higher than the discount rate in the next five years, but once they make a mistake, they may face a 30% or even 50% share price drop. In an environment where liquidity is abundant and capital is anxious to find high-return areas,<b>In the next few years, the level of competition faced by many industries is probably more intense than in the past five years.</b></p><p>Zhang Kun believes that,<b>I'm afraid the difficulty of judging the competition pattern of the industry in the next five years will only increase.</b>\"On the whole, if you are correct, you may only get a mediocre rate of return, but once you are wrong, you will face not small losses. Under such an odds distribution, it is obviously a difficult action for investment. In this case, either conduct in-depth research in popular industries to try to get higher probability confidence, or in less crowded industries, sacrifice some probability a little, take on a little more uncertainty and get better odds returns.<b>From the current judgment, a decline in expected returns over the next few years may be difficult to avoid.</b>”</p>","source":"tzw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Performance \"at the bottom\", Zhang Kun admits his mistake</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPerformance \"at the bottom\", Zhang Kun admits his mistake\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投中网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-21 10:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>In the face of declining performance, Zhang Kun also rarely \"admitted mistakes\" in the second quarterly report</b>In the early morning of July 20th, E Fund Company announced the second quarterly reports of many of its fund products. Among them, Zhang Kun, the \"first brother of public offering\", and his four public offering of funds once again became the focus of attention.</p><p>In the past second quarter, the stock positions of four funds managed by Zhang Kun, namely, E Fund Blue Chip Selected Mixed, E Fund Small and Medium Cap Mixed, E Fund Asia Selected Stocks and E Fund High-quality Enterprises Three-year Holding Period Mixed, all decreased to varying degrees. Among them, the share position ratio of E Fund Small and Medium Cap decreased by 23 percentage points compared with the first quarter, and plummeted to the lowest stock position at the end of the quarter since Zhang Kun managed E Fund Small and Medium Cap. In addition, Zhang Kun also adjusted the structure in the second quarter, reducing the allocation of food and beverage industries, increasing the allocation of computer industries, and continuing to position heavily in two financial Hong Kong stocks, China Merchants Bank and Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>According to the data, as of the end of the second quarter, the scale of four funds managed by Zhang Kun was 134.478 billion yuan, a slight increase from 133.109 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter. Among them, blue-chip selection, small-and medium-cap mixture and high-quality enterprises' three-year holding period mixture turned losses into profits in the second quarter, with profits of 5.384 billion yuan, 805 million yuan and 1.122 billion yuan respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a751b2749b319a7c6c42ffdd39684c\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Although the fund size has increased and three funds have turned losses into profits, compared with their peers, the performance of funds managed by Zhang Kun in the second quarter is not ideal. Among them, E Fund's Blue Chip Select and E Fund's Small and Medium-sized Cap ranked 2,833 and 3,187 respectively among the same type of funds (3,403 in total) in the second quarter, while E Fund's Asia Select stocks fell to the penultimate among the same type of funds.</p><p>Faced with the declining performance, Zhang Kun also rarely \"admitted his mistakes\" in the second quarterly report, saying that looking back at his past judgments, he found many mistakes. In addition, Zhang Kun also emphasized that from the current judgment, a decline in expected returns in the next few years may be difficult to avoid.</p><p><b>Stock Position Qi Lower, Reduce Wuliangye Maotai</b></p><p>First of all, let's take a look at the changes in the positions of four funds in Q2 2021.</p><p>According to the report, the stock positions of Zhang Kun's four products all declined to varying degrees in the second quarter. Among them, E Fund's small and medium-sized cap has the largest reduction, and its stock position plummeted from 93.93% at the end of the first quarter to 70.36%. This is the lowest level of the fund since Zhang Kun became the fund manager on September 28, 2012, and it is also the second time that the stock position has dropped below 80% after the third quarter of 2017.</p><p>At the same time, the stock positions of the other three funds have been slightly lowered: the share of stock positions of E Fund's blue-chip selection has dropped from 93.61% to 90.17%; The stock position of E Fund Quality Enterprises decreased from 94.57% to 89.24%; E Fund Asia Select's stock position decreased from 93.17% to 86.45%.</p><p>Specific to the direction of position adjustment, the four funds are different in structural adjustment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1683ff0f2a10d195121cffc0e4f458b6\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Top 10 E Fund Blue Chip Select Positions in Q2 2021</p><p>Compared with the first quarter, E Fund Blue Chip Selection reduced the allocation of computer and other industries and increased the allocation of electronics and other industries in the second quarter. Among the top ten Awkwardness stocks, as in Q1 2021, Blue Chip Select still holds 4 liquor stocks, but their positions have increased and decreased. Among them, Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai decreased to 9.88% and 9.75% from 10.05% and 9.86% in Q1 2021, while the holdings of Luzhou Old Cellar and Yanghe increased from 7.62% and 4.68% to 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively.</p><p>At the same time, Zhang Kun also increased his holdings of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, China Merchants Bank and Tencent Holdings in the second quarter, and reduced his holdings of Meituan. By the end of the second quarter, Hong Kong Stock Exchange has replaced Wuliangye as the largest weight stock in E Fund's blue-chip selection. In addition, Ping An Bank, which accounted for 3.25% of its positions in Q1, fell out of the top ten and was replaced by Aier Ophthalmology. It is worth mentioning that in Q4 2020, Aier Ophthalmology also appeared in the list of the top ten heavyweight stocks selected by E Fund Blue Chip.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf129f55b2095a3ab6cabbe0638cf11a\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Top Ten Small and Medium Cap Positions of E Fund in Q2 2021</p><p>In the second quarter of 2021, E Fund's small and medium-sized caps increased the allocation of computers and other industries while reducing the allocation of food and beverage industries. Specifically, compared with the first quarter, the top ten heavyweight stocks of E Fund's small and medium-sized stocks remained unchanged, but they focused on increasing their holdings of Hang Seng Electronics and Hualan Bio, and reducing their holdings of Tongce Medical and Kweichow Moutai.</p><p>Among them, Wuliangye was greatly reduced by Zhang Kun, falling from the second largest holding stock in Q1 2021 to the seventh largest holding stock, and Meinian Health's holding stock also decreased. In addition, the stock price fell during the reporting period, and it has fallen from the original first holding stock to the sixth largest holding stock.</p><p>Let's look at the mixed three-year holding period of E Fund's high-quality enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75b188fe04c08b16db4160afe2f8ebb0\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Top Ten Mixed Positions of E Fund High-Quality Enterprises with Three-Year Holding Period in Q1 2021</p><p>Similar to the similar operation of E Fund's blue chip selection, the fund reduced the allocation of computer and other industries in the second quarter, and also increased the positions of Luzhou Old Cellar and Yanghe shares, and lightened the positions of Wuliangye. But the difference is that the three-year holding period of E Fund's high-quality enterprises has increased the allocation of pharmaceutical, banking and other industries in this period.</p><p>In addition, the fund also increased its holdings of Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Tencent Holdings in the second quarter, and lightened its positions in Hikvision and Meituan. At present, Luzhou Old Cellar has become the largest holding stock of E Fund's high-quality enterprises in the three-year holding period with a holding ratio of 9.76%. At the same time, Hualan Bio and Jinxin Reproductive fell out of the top ten Awkwardness stocks, and Aier Ophthalmology and Ping An Bank became the new top ten Awkwardness stocks.</p><p>Finally, let's talk about the relatively small scale and E Fund Asia Select.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ad95bd85c15dec4396047e297b788c\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Compared with Q1 this year, Zhang Kun reduced the allocation of consumption and education industries and increased the allocation of banking, real estate and other industries in E Fund Asia Select Fund. In the previous quarter, TAL, New Oriental and STAAR Surgical Co, which were heavily positioned, withdrew from the top ten heavyweight stocks, while Postal Savings Bank of China, China Overseas Land & Investment Co., Ltd. and Vipshop became the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the past second quarter, the profit of E Fund's Asia Select Stock in this period was-316 million yuan, which was still at a loss, and its yield ranked second from the bottom among the same type of funds.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Kun specifically mentioned in the quarterly report that in the second quarter, the stock prices of education and training enterprises fell greatly due to policy expectations, which had a certain negative impact on the net value of the fund. This also made him reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework, hoping to further improve them.</p><p><b>Performance \"at the bottom\", Zhang Kun rarely \"admits mistakes\"</b></p><p>In fact, except E Fund Asia Select, the performance of the other three funds held by Zhang Kun in the second quarter was also unsatisfactory, far behind other similar fund products.</p><p>According to the data, in the past three months, the best performance among similar funds is the flexible allocation mix of Qianhai Open Source New Economy, with a yield of more than 50%, while the yields of E Fund High-quality Enterprises under Zhang Kun with three-year holding period mix, E Fund Blue Chip Selection and E Fund Small and Medium Cap in the second quarter are 10.62%, 5.94% and 2.51% respectively, ranking 2,103, 2,833 and 3,187 respectively among the same type of funds (3,403 in total).</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Kun rarely \"admitted his mistakes\" in the second quarterly report, saying that looking back at his past judgment, he \"found many mistakes\". At the same time, Zhang Kun also expressed his views on the future market in the quarterly report.</p><p>Zhang Kun said that after the epidemic, with the relaxation of global liquidity, global stock markets have risen significantly. For some high-quality companies in industries (technology, medicine, consumption, new energy) that are recognized by the market as having room for long-term growth, in addition to the driving force of performance growth, the valuation has also been significantly improved. In the face of higher and higher levels of P/E, the valuation methods of enterprises are increasingly using forward (such as 2025 or even 2030) market value discounted back to the current year. It seems that only then can investors obtain an acceptable level of return.</p><p>He mentioned that for some companies, when all kinds of assumptions are fulfilled, they may be able to earn a discount rate or a yield slightly higher than the discount rate in the next five years, but once they make a mistake, they may face a 30% or even 50% share price drop. In an environment where liquidity is abundant and capital is anxious to find high-return areas,<b>In the next few years, the level of competition faced by many industries is probably more intense than in the past five years.</b></p><p>Zhang Kun believes that,<b>I'm afraid the difficulty of judging the competition pattern of the industry in the next five years will only increase.</b>\"On the whole, if you are correct, you may only get a mediocre rate of return, but once you are wrong, you will face not small losses. Under such an odds distribution, it is obviously a difficult action for investment. In this case, either conduct in-depth research in popular industries to try to get higher probability confidence, or in less crowded industries, sacrifice some probability a little, take on a little more uncertainty and get better odds returns.<b>From the current judgment, a decline in expected returns over the next few years may be difficult to avoid.</b>”</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RWe2BmpaFEW6ZVcIMvHsmQ\">投中网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2092a73a2e90156199add4191d62cc13","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RWe2BmpaFEW6ZVcIMvHsmQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166715880","content_text":"面对不断下滑的业绩，张坤也在二季报中罕见“认错”\n\n7月20日凌晨，易方达基金公司公布旗下多只基金产品二季报，其中，“公募一哥”张坤及其管理的4只公募基金再度成为关注的焦点。\n在过去的二季度，张坤管理的易方达蓝筹精选混合、易方达中小盘混合、易方达亚洲精选股票和易方达优质企业三年持有期混合4只基金的股票仓位均有不同程度的下降，其中易方达中小盘的股票仓位比例相比一季度下降23个百分点，骤降至张坤管理易方达中小盘以来季末股票仓位最低。此外，张坤在二季度也对结构进行了调整，降低了食品饮料等行业的配置，增加了计算机等行业的配置，并继续重仓招商银行、港交所两只金融类港股。\n数据显示，截至二季度末，张坤管理的4只基金的规模为1344.78亿元，较上一季度末的1331.09亿元略有增加。其中，蓝筹精选、中小盘混合以及优质企业三年持有期混合二季度扭亏为盈，本期利润分别为53.84亿元、8.05亿元、11.22亿元。\n\n虽然基金规模增加，3只基金扭亏为盈，但与同行对比，张坤管理的基金二季度表现并不理想。其中，易方达蓝筹精选、易方达中小盘二季度在同类型基金（共计3403只）中排名分别为2833名、3187名，而易方达亚洲精选股票更是跌落到同类型基金中的倒数第二位。\n面对不断下滑的业绩，张坤也在二季报中罕见“认错”，称回首自己以往的判断，发现有不少错误。此外，张坤还强调，从目前的判断来看，未来几年预期回报率下降可能是难以避免的。\n股票仓位齐下调，减持五粮液茅台\n首先来看一下4只基金在2021年Q2的持仓变化情况。\n根据报告显示，张坤旗下4只产品的股票仓位在二季度均有不同程度的下降。其中，易方达中小盘的减仓幅度最大，股票仓位从一季度末的93.93%骤降至70.36%。这是该基金自张坤2012年9月28日担任基金经理以来的最低水平，也是继2017年三季度后，股票仓位第二次降至八成以下。\n与此同时，另外3只基金的股票仓位均略有下调：易方达蓝筹精选的股票仓位比例从93.61%下降至90.17%；易方达优质企业的股票仓位从94.57%下降至89.24%；易方达亚洲精选的股票仓位从93.17%下降至86.45%。\n具体到调仓方向上，4只基金在结构调整上各有不同。\n\n2021年Q2易方达蓝筹精选持仓前十\n与一季度相比，易方达蓝筹精选在二季度降低了计算机等行业的配置，增加了电子等行业的配置。在前十大重仓股中，与2021年Q1一样，蓝筹精选依然持有4只白酒股，但持仓有增有减。其中，五粮液和贵州茅台从2021年Q1的10.05%和9.86%，降至9.88%和9.75%，而泸州老窖和洋河股份的持仓比例曾分别从7.62%、4.68%%增至9.71%和9.68%。\n同时，张坤还在二季度对香港交易所、招商银行以及腾讯控股进行了增持，并减持了美团。截至二季度末，香港交易所已取代五粮液成为易方达蓝筹精选的第一大重仓股。此外，Q1持仓占比为3.25%的平安银行跌出前十，被爱尔眼科取代。值得一提的是，在2020年Q4时，爱尔眼科也出现在了易方达蓝筹精选的前十大重仓股列表中。\n\n2021年Q2易方达中小盘持仓前十\n2021年第二季度，易方达中小盘则是在降低食品饮料等行业配置的同时，增加了计算机等行业的配置。具体来看个股，与一季度相比，易方达中小盘的十大重仓股保持不变，但重点增持了恒生电子、华兰生物，并减持了通策医疗和贵州茅台。\n其中，五粮液遭到张坤大幅减持，从2021年Q1的第二大重仓股掉落到第七大重仓股，美年健康的持仓也有所减少，加之报告期内股价下跌，已从原本的第一大重仓股掉落成第六大重仓股。\n再来看易方达优质企业三年持有期混合。\n\n2021年Q1易方达优质企业三年持有期混合持仓前十\n同易方达蓝筹精选类似的操作类似，该基金在二季度降低了计算机等行业的配置，并同样加仓了泸州老窖和洋河股份，减仓了五粮液。但不同的是，易方达优质企业三年持有期混合在本期增加了医药、银行等行业的配置。\n此外，该基金还在二季度增持了香港交易所、腾讯控股这两只港股标的，并减仓了海康威视和美团。目前，泸州老窖以9.76%的持仓占比成为易方达优质企业三年持有期混合的第一大重仓股。与此同时，华兰生物和锦欣生殖跌出前十大重仓股，爱尔眼科、平安银行成为新晋前十大重仓股。\n最后说一下规模相对较小的和易方达亚洲精选。\n\n与今年Q1相比，张坤在易方达亚洲精选基金上降低了消费、教育行业的配置，增加了银行、地产等行业的配置。此前一季度重仓的好未来、新东方、STAAR Surgical Co退出前十大重仓股，中国邮政储蓄银行、中国海外发展有限公司、唯品会成为新晋前十大重仓股。\n值得一提的是，在刚刚过去的二季度，易方达亚洲精选股票本期利润为-3.16亿元，仍处于亏损状态，收益率在同类型基金中排名倒数第二。\n对此，张坤在季报中特别提到，二季度，教培企业受政策预期影响股价跌幅较大，对基金净值产生了一定的负面影响，这也使他反思长期投资框架中的一些假设，希望能够将其进一步完善。\n业绩“垫底”，张坤罕见“认错”\n事实上，除易方达亚洲精选外，张坤持有的另外三只基金在二季度的业绩表现同样不尽人意，远落后于其他同类基金产品。\n数据显示，在过去的3个月中，同类基金中业绩表现最好的为前海开源新经济灵活配置混合，收益率超过50%，而张坤旗下的易方达优质企业三年持有期混合、易方达蓝筹精选、易方达中小盘二季度的收益率分别为10.62%、5.94%和2.51%，在同类型基金（共计3403只）中排名分别为2103名、2833名和3187名。\n对此，张坤在二季报中罕见“认错”，表示回首自己以往的判断，“发现有不少错误”。同时，张坤也在季报中表达了自己对未来市场的看法。\n张坤表示，疫情后，随着全球流动性的放松，全球股市都有了显著上涨。对于一些市场公认长期有成长空间行业（科技、医药、消费、新能源）中的优质公司，除了业绩增长的驱动，估值也得到了显著的提升。面对越来越高的市盈率水平，对企业的估值方法也越来越多采用远期（如2025年甚至2030年）市值贴现回当年，似乎只有这样，投资者才能获得一个可以接受的回报率水平。\n他提到，对于一些公司，在各种假设都兑现的情况下，可能未来5年能赚取贴现率或者比贴现率略高的收益率水平，但是一旦错误，可能就要面临30%甚至50%的股价下跌。在一个流动性宽裕、资本焦虑地寻找高回报率领域的环境下，未来几年，不少行业面临的竞争程度恐怕比过去5年更为激烈。\n张坤认为，对于未来5年行业竞争格局的判断难度恐怕只增不减。“综合来看，如果正确，可能只获得一个平庸的回报率，但一旦错误，却面临不小的损失。在这样的赔率分布下，对于投资来说显然是高难度动作。在这种情况下，要么在热门行业进行深入研究，试图获得更高的概率确信度，要么在不那么拥挤的行业，稍微牺牲一些概率，承担多一点不确定性，获得更佳的赔率回报。从目前的判断来看，未来几年预期回报率下降可能是难以避免的。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070651954,"gmtCreate":1657064093078,"gmtModify":1676535940675,"author":{"id":"3568712936130316","authorId":"3568712936130316","name":"魔王大大","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b117b6c59b23211bc994189df572d82","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568712936130316","idStr":"3568712936130316"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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