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Fundamental equity investo","content":"<p>Growth stocks have led the market this year despite an economic slowdown. Fundamental equity investors Lawrence Kemp and Phil Ruvinsky look ahead and offer their view: Growth has staying power.</p>\n<p>As growth investors, we are always attuned to disruption and the risks and opportunities it can present. A hallmark of our approach is to identify growth prospects arising from structural change and disruption before it is fully priced by the market.</p>\n<p>There has been no shortage of these opportunities in 2020.</p>\n<p><b>Charging into change</b></p>\n<p>The COVID-19 crisis has been a forceful accelerant of many trends that were already in play pre-pandemic. The quarantine incited a seismic shift in corporate and consumer behavior, fast-tracking the digital transformation across multiple industries.</p>\n<p>E-commerce, telemedicine and entertainment & data usage in the media space were some of the most obvious beneficiaries of a stay-at-home world. Yet these trends were seeded well before the pandemic. We knew, for example, that shopping malls were in danger. We knew that streaming services have been unrelenting opponents of traditional cable companies. Telemedicine, despite slower adoption in recent years, gained momentum for its ease of use in pediatrics and routine care in 2020.</p>\n<p>We also saw less obvious beneficiaries. Among them: digital tours and leasing within real estate, contactless payments and electronic trading within financials, and shifts toward online and away from physical dealerships in the auto space.</p>\n<p><b>Here to stay</b></p>\n<p>Some question whether the changes seen this year are enduring – or was demand simply pulled forward. Can the types of growth companies that prospered during this unique time continue to prevail, or is a slowdown inevitable?</p>\n<p>It’s true that many companies experienced a surge in demand for their products and services amid the pandemic and digital revolution tied to remote working. This will inevitably settle some, but we don’t see it stealing from the future.</p>\n<p>We believe this year brought a sort of forced adoption necessary for future business survival a dynamic likely to continue for companies that want to be competitive in a post-COVID world. That means demand could continue to edge higher for providers of these products and services. One example: Many consumers swapped gym memberships for connected home fitness equipment. The initial demand spike may recede, but many of these consumers will be multi-year subscription payers and likely to become more firmly entrenched in an ecosystem of products offered by a certain company.</p>\n<p>Many of the trends that were supercharged during the pandemic had been solidly in place for years. We believe this gives them staying power. In many ways, the COVID-induced acceleration could be viewed as a way to clear the market of companies that may have been unprepared, unable or unwilling to adapt, thereby creating greater shelf space for ‘survivors’ within these industries.</p>\n<p><b>Beyond the big names</b></p>\n<p>Growth has been a standout performerduring three key market phases in recent years: the multi-year bull market, the pandemic-driven recession earlier this year and the subsequent snapback and market rally. We believe this potency can continue.</p>\n<p>While the pandemic has helped propel many growth firms, some of the best companies in our portfolios have been everyday businesses that have put low-cost technology to work to gain market share against competitors. Child daycare companies, salvage auto, pest control, landscaping supplies — companies in these industries have been important drivers of return for us in recent years.</p>\n<p>To be sure, the market for growth stocks is much broader and more robust than the FAAMG companies (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google) that dominate headlines. These large companies have driven the lion’s share of return in recent years, but the benefits of innovation and disruption have not accrued only to the big names. While market leadership may be narrow, as shown in the chart below, the opportunity is not. We see a much more fertile hunting ground outside of these names than we have in years past – and we believe sourcing the best opportunities will require the skill of anactive manager, who can look through top-heavy indexes to the vast opportunity within.</p>\n<p>Market leadership is narrow; opportunity is not</p>\n<p>Index leaders’ contribution to five-year return, Sept. 2020</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a569a36291369cb71167403709febe8d\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"390\"><span>Source: BlackRock, with data from FactSet as of Sept. 30, 2020. Returns shown are five-year annualized returns. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.</span></p>","source":"lsy1606216425432","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The outlook for growth stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe outlook for growth stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-24 18:50 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/market-minute-growth-stocks?cid=synd:SA:Theoutlookforgrowthstocks><strong>BlackRock</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Growth stocks have led the market this year despite an economic slowdown. Fundamental equity investors Lawrence Kemp and Phil Ruvinsky look ahead and offer their view: Growth has staying power.\nAs ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/market-minute-growth-stocks?cid=synd:SA:Theoutlookforgrowthstocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/market-minute-growth-stocks?cid=synd:SA:Theoutlookforgrowthstocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131781353","content_text":"Growth stocks have led the market this year despite an economic slowdown. Fundamental equity investors Lawrence Kemp and Phil Ruvinsky look ahead and offer their view: Growth has staying power.\nAs growth investors, we are always attuned to disruption and the risks and opportunities it can present. A hallmark of our approach is to identify growth prospects arising from structural change and disruption before it is fully priced by the market.\nThere has been no shortage of these opportunities in 2020.\nCharging into change\nThe COVID-19 crisis has been a forceful accelerant of many trends that were already in play pre-pandemic. The quarantine incited a seismic shift in corporate and consumer behavior, fast-tracking the digital transformation across multiple industries.\nE-commerce, telemedicine and entertainment & data usage in the media space were some of the most obvious beneficiaries of a stay-at-home world. Yet these trends were seeded well before the pandemic. We knew, for example, that shopping malls were in danger. We knew that streaming services have been unrelenting opponents of traditional cable companies. Telemedicine, despite slower adoption in recent years, gained momentum for its ease of use in pediatrics and routine care in 2020.\nWe also saw less obvious beneficiaries. Among them: digital tours and leasing within real estate, contactless payments and electronic trading within financials, and shifts toward online and away from physical dealerships in the auto space.\nHere to stay\nSome question whether the changes seen this year are enduring – or was demand simply pulled forward. Can the types of growth companies that prospered during this unique time continue to prevail, or is a slowdown inevitable?\nIt’s true that many companies experienced a surge in demand for their products and services amid the pandemic and digital revolution tied to remote working. This will inevitably settle some, but we don’t see it stealing from the future.\nWe believe this year brought a sort of forced adoption necessary for future business survival a dynamic likely to continue for companies that want to be competitive in a post-COVID world. That means demand could continue to edge higher for providers of these products and services. One example: Many consumers swapped gym memberships for connected home fitness equipment. The initial demand spike may recede, but many of these consumers will be multi-year subscription payers and likely to become more firmly entrenched in an ecosystem of products offered by a certain company.\nMany of the trends that were supercharged during the pandemic had been solidly in place for years. We believe this gives them staying power. In many ways, the COVID-induced acceleration could be viewed as a way to clear the market of companies that may have been unprepared, unable or unwilling to adapt, thereby creating greater shelf space for ‘survivors’ within these industries.\nBeyond the big names\nGrowth has been a standout performerduring three key market phases in recent years: the multi-year bull market, the pandemic-driven recession earlier this year and the subsequent snapback and market rally. We believe this potency can continue.\nWhile the pandemic has helped propel many growth firms, some of the best companies in our portfolios have been everyday businesses that have put low-cost technology to work to gain market share against competitors. Child daycare companies, salvage auto, pest control, landscaping supplies — companies in these industries have been important drivers of return for us in recent years.\nTo be sure, the market for growth stocks is much broader and more robust than the FAAMG companies (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google) that dominate headlines. These large companies have driven the lion’s share of return in recent years, but the benefits of innovation and disruption have not accrued only to the big names. While market leadership may be narrow, as shown in the chart below, the opportunity is not. We see a much more fertile hunting ground outside of these names than we have in years past – and we believe sourcing the best opportunities will require the skill of anactive manager, who can look through top-heavy indexes to the vast opportunity within.\nMarket leadership is narrow; opportunity is not\nIndex leaders’ contribution to five-year return, Sept. 2020\nSource: BlackRock, with data from FactSet as of Sept. 30, 2020. Returns shown are five-year annualized returns. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":393128684,"gmtCreate":1606263618748,"gmtModify":1704964705585,"author":{"id":"3569355951428539","authorId":"3569355951428539","name":"suny0037","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92598d40a5d949488d733bbb0bf8a529","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569355951428539","authorIdStr":"3569355951428539"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good！","listText":"good！","text":"good！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/393128684","repostId":"1197465337","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197465337","pubTimestamp":1606216208,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197465337?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-24 19:10","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"3 Events Markets Will Be Watching As 2020 Comes To A Close","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197465337","media":"CME Group","summary":"Summary\nThe COVID-19 pandemic is the obvious main concern that is on everyone's mind both on a perso","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<p>The COVID-19 pandemic is the obvious main concern that is on everyone's mind both on a personal and economic basis. Everything hinges on the trajectory of potential vaccines and the measures that have to be taken until the vaccine becomes a reality both in development and distribution.</p>\n<p>If the path of the pandemic continues, by the end of the year there will still be 10 million fewer jobs than there would have been without the pandemic. But growth will accelerate as doses of the vaccine are administered and people will feel more and more comfortable leaving their house as time goes on.</p>\n<p>A particularly important number to watch will be December's University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, which will be released in the second week of December. This will indicate to us what the initial economic path in early 2021 may look like.</p>\n<p><b>At a Glance</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Traders will be watching whether new COVID-19 vaccines stay on their stated schedules, and whether they see any hiccups in distribution.</li>\n <li>The job market and consumer confidence levels will also largely depend on the rollout of COVID vaccines.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Pre-Thanksgiving is typically the time of year when many traders consider paring down positions for the holidays, but 2020 will be markedly different. There is simply too much going on and too much potential opportunity in the market through the end of the year.</p>\n<p>I will focus on three inputs that may determine the course of the market until the end of 2020: the COVID-19 pandemic, jobs and consumer confidence. You can argue that these are all related, but at this point, almost everything is.</p>\n<p><b>The Vaccine Trajectory</b></p>\n<p>The COVID-19 pandemic is the obvious main concern that is on everyone's mind both on a personal and economic basis. Everything hinges on the trajectory of potential vaccines and the measures that have to be taken until the vaccine becomes a reality both in development and distribution.</p>\n<p>There now exists a light at the end of the tunnel that did not exist before November 9. Both Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA) have announced vaccines with 95% efficacy. Pfizer expects to produce 50 million doses by the end of 2020 and another 1.3 billion doses in 2021. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes all closed at record highs on the Pfizer news, while the Dow and S&P again hit new highs after Moderna announced its vaccine effectiveness days later.</p>\n<p>The vaccine itself comes with logistical hurdles that make this project much more daunting than just producing a vaccine. The Pfizer version, for example, must be transported and stored at exceptionally low temperatures. However, the Moderna vaccine can last for up to six months when stored at standard freezer temperatures.</p>\n<p>Much attention in the market will be given to whether these vaccines stay on their stated schedules, and whether they see any hiccups in distribution.</p>\n<p><b>Employment Challenges Ahead</b></p>\n<p>How do we make sure that we don't drive ourselves into financial ruin while waiting for the vaccine? Jobs.</p>\n<p>Prior to the vaccine news, America's economic recovery was exceeding forecasts and surpassing others in the industrialized world. In April, the IMF reported that GDP would shrink by 6% in 2020. It now projects a decline of 4%. The unemployment rate had reached a high point of 14.7% in April. In June, the Federal Reserve had expected it to still be around 9% by the end of the year, yet it went below that threshold only two months later. In October, it stood at 6.9%.</p>\n<p>If the path of the pandemic continues, by the end of the year there will still be 10 million fewer jobs than there would have been without the pandemic. Output will be some $700 billion, or 4%, lower than otherwise, and we cannot expect personal income to reach pre-COVID-19 levels until early 2022.</p>\n<p>But growth will accelerate as doses of the vaccine are administered and people will feel more and more comfortable leaving their house as time goes on. Everything from theaters to public transportation will feel safer, which will further revive the job market. It is estimated that before the pandemic, over a fifth of workers were in jobs involving proximity to others. Those fears should abate as well.</p>\n<p><b>Gaining Confidence</b></p>\n<p>Lastly, let us look at Consumer Confidence. This metric will be the output of all our efforts to get beyond this pandemic. The University of Michigan'sconsumer sentimentdecreased to 77 in November from 81.8 in October and against market expectations of 82, a preliminary estimate showed. It is the lowest reading since August, as consumers judged future economic prospects less favorably (71.3 vs 79.2 in October), while their assessments of current economic conditions remained largely unchanged (85.8 vs. 85.9).</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the upcoming year increased to 2.8% from 2.6% and the 5-year outlook to 2.6% from 2.4%. The outcome of the presidential election as well as the resurgence in COVID-19 infections and deaths were responsible for the early November decline. Interviews conducted following the election recorded a substantial negative shift in Republicans' expectations and no gain among Democrats.</p>\n<p>A particularly important number to watch will be December's UofM Consumer Confidence Index, which will be released in the second week of December. This will indicate to us what the initial economic path in early 2021 may look like. Whatever direction it goes, market participants will be taking notice.</p>","source":"lsy1606216183286","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Events Markets Will Be Watching As 2020 Comes To A Close</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Events Markets Will Be Watching As 2020 Comes To A Close\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-24 19:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/finance/2020/three-events-markets-will-be-watching-as-2020-comes-to-close.html?source=rss><strong>CME Group</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\nThe COVID-19 pandemic is the obvious main concern that is on everyone's mind both on a personal and economic basis. Everything hinges on the trajectory of potential vaccines and the measures ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/finance/2020/three-events-markets-will-be-watching-as-2020-comes-to-close.html?source=rss\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/finance/2020/three-events-markets-will-be-watching-as-2020-comes-to-close.html?source=rss","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197465337","content_text":"Summary\nThe COVID-19 pandemic is the obvious main concern that is on everyone's mind both on a personal and economic basis. Everything hinges on the trajectory of potential vaccines and the measures that have to be taken until the vaccine becomes a reality both in development and distribution.\nIf the path of the pandemic continues, by the end of the year there will still be 10 million fewer jobs than there would have been without the pandemic. But growth will accelerate as doses of the vaccine are administered and people will feel more and more comfortable leaving their house as time goes on.\nA particularly important number to watch will be December's University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, which will be released in the second week of December. This will indicate to us what the initial economic path in early 2021 may look like.\nAt a Glance\n\nTraders will be watching whether new COVID-19 vaccines stay on their stated schedules, and whether they see any hiccups in distribution.\nThe job market and consumer confidence levels will also largely depend on the rollout of COVID vaccines.\n\nPre-Thanksgiving is typically the time of year when many traders consider paring down positions for the holidays, but 2020 will be markedly different. There is simply too much going on and too much potential opportunity in the market through the end of the year.\nI will focus on three inputs that may determine the course of the market until the end of 2020: the COVID-19 pandemic, jobs and consumer confidence. You can argue that these are all related, but at this point, almost everything is.\nThe Vaccine Trajectory\nThe COVID-19 pandemic is the obvious main concern that is on everyone's mind both on a personal and economic basis. Everything hinges on the trajectory of potential vaccines and the measures that have to be taken until the vaccine becomes a reality both in development and distribution.\nThere now exists a light at the end of the tunnel that did not exist before November 9. Both Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA) have announced vaccines with 95% efficacy. Pfizer expects to produce 50 million doses by the end of 2020 and another 1.3 billion doses in 2021. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes all closed at record highs on the Pfizer news, while the Dow and S&P again hit new highs after Moderna announced its vaccine effectiveness days later.\nThe vaccine itself comes with logistical hurdles that make this project much more daunting than just producing a vaccine. The Pfizer version, for example, must be transported and stored at exceptionally low temperatures. However, the Moderna vaccine can last for up to six months when stored at standard freezer temperatures.\nMuch attention in the market will be given to whether these vaccines stay on their stated schedules, and whether they see any hiccups in distribution.\nEmployment Challenges Ahead\nHow do we make sure that we don't drive ourselves into financial ruin while waiting for the vaccine? Jobs.\nPrior to the vaccine news, America's economic recovery was exceeding forecasts and surpassing others in the industrialized world. In April, the IMF reported that GDP would shrink by 6% in 2020. It now projects a decline of 4%. The unemployment rate had reached a high point of 14.7% in April. In June, the Federal Reserve had expected it to still be around 9% by the end of the year, yet it went below that threshold only two months later. In October, it stood at 6.9%.\nIf the path of the pandemic continues, by the end of the year there will still be 10 million fewer jobs than there would have been without the pandemic. Output will be some $700 billion, or 4%, lower than otherwise, and we cannot expect personal income to reach pre-COVID-19 levels until early 2022.\nBut growth will accelerate as doses of the vaccine are administered and people will feel more and more comfortable leaving their house as time goes on. Everything from theaters to public transportation will feel safer, which will further revive the job market. It is estimated that before the pandemic, over a fifth of workers were in jobs involving proximity to others. Those fears should abate as well.\nGaining Confidence\nLastly, let us look at Consumer Confidence. This metric will be the output of all our efforts to get beyond this pandemic. The University of Michigan'sconsumer sentimentdecreased to 77 in November from 81.8 in October and against market expectations of 82, a preliminary estimate showed. It is the lowest reading since August, as consumers judged future economic prospects less favorably (71.3 vs 79.2 in October), while their assessments of current economic conditions remained largely unchanged (85.8 vs. 85.9).\nMeanwhile, inflation expectations for the upcoming year increased to 2.8% from 2.6% and the 5-year outlook to 2.6% from 2.4%. The outcome of the presidential election as well as the resurgence in COVID-19 infections and deaths were responsible for the early November decline. Interviews conducted following the election recorded a substantial negative shift in Republicans' expectations and no gain among Democrats.\nA particularly important number to watch will be December's UofM Consumer Confidence Index, which will be released in the second week of December. This will indicate to us what the initial economic path in early 2021 may look like. Whatever direction it goes, market participants will be taking notice.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
