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2023-04-14

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瑞银密集下调小鹏、比亚迪评级：涨得有点多了

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15:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞银密集下调小鹏、比亚迪评级：涨得有点多了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104020139","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"过去一段时间，中国造车新势力股价涨势如虹，然而瑞银表示，在这一轮强劲反弹之后，他们近期不那么看多了。瑞银12月3日密集发布研报表示，尽管基本面强劲，但是过去三个月至六个月中国电动车企的股价涨幅超过了100%，基于这个理由他们下调了比亚迪评级至卖出，下调小鹏评级至中性。总体来看，瑞银的偏好顺序依次递减分别是：蔚来、小鹏和比亚迪。","content":"<p>过去一段时间，中国造车新势力股价涨势如虹，然而瑞银表示，在这一轮强劲反弹之后，他们近期不那么看多了。</p>\n<p>瑞银12月3日密集发布研报表示，<b>尽管基本面强劲，但是过去三个月至六个月中国电动车企的股价涨幅超过了100%，基于这个理由他们下调了比亚迪评级至卖出，下调小鹏评级至中性。</b></p>\n<p>不过考虑到成本下降、市场渗透率提高等基本面因素的支持，瑞银提高了三只股票的目标价。总体来看，瑞银的偏好顺序依次递减分别是：蔚来、小鹏和比亚迪。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 维持蔚来汽车评级在中性，同时目标价从16.3美元提高至55美元。小鹏汽车评级从买入下调至中性，但是目标价从25美元提高至59美元。比亚迪评级从中性下调至卖出，但是目标价从55港元提高至144港元。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a620bf4343628434a2d6be257362eccd\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"829\">\n</blockquote>\n<p>瑞银在研报中提到，尽管电池成本的下降可能会给市场带来惊喜，但是市场可能低估了电动车行业日益激烈的竞争，来自特斯拉和大众这些巨头的冲击，让一些现有企业可能面临失去部分市场份额的风险。</p>\n<p>此外，中国电动车企股价在今年强劲反弹，反映出投资者对相关企业风险偏好的上升。确实，好于预期的销售额和盈利都是投资者们兴奋的原因，但是这些公司的股价几乎没有计入任何下行风险。</p>\n<p>最后，即使在最佳情形下，目前这些电动车企的估值也过高了。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 我们还对2025年最佳情形下的估值进行了分析，然而结果表明，即使在最佳情形下，目前的估值也可能处于过高的水平。尽管许多基本面因素存在强劲势头，但市值分析表明，电动车企股票的长期内在价值与目前看涨的市场估值之间存在明显的脱节。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>蔚来：品牌能力是强项但是估值过贵</b></p>\n<p>在三家中国电动车企中，瑞银最看好蔚来，尽管估值略高，但相对而言还是合理的。</p>\n<p>瑞银认为，市场已经消化了蔚来宣布的积极因素，包括销量增长、利润率提高以及未来技术的发展。<b>但是要充分给予肯定的是，蔚来汽车已经在电动车行业树立了品牌优势，尤其是其高端市场的定位可能帮助蔚来从电动车市场的蓬勃发展中受益。</b></p>\n<p>不过，这并不意味着蔚来的前路是平坦的。</p>\n<p>目前特斯拉Model 3与蔚来ES8/ES6/EC6 的直接竞争是有限的，但是2021年初开始Model Y本土化，其价格将从48.8万元人民币降低至30万元人民币，这意味着将影响蔚来汽车SUV的销量。另外特斯拉还有规模优势、成本优势和品牌溢价。</p>\n<p>考虑到以上因素，瑞银对蔚来的估值持谨慎态度。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 我们认为，从商业本质和新能源汽车初创企业的角度，特斯拉是蔚来汽车最好的基准。不过从全球品牌认知度、技术领导力和全球产能这些方面来看，蔚来还不能跟特斯拉相提并论。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>小鹏：自动驾驶能力突出&nbsp;但产品所处赛道更加拥挤</b></p>\n<p>瑞银认为，近期小鹏汽车股价的大幅上涨已经计入了大部分积极因素，当前其估值已经高于其内在估值，但是相对而言还是合理的。</p>\n<p>小鹏汽车最大优势是来自其自动驾驶方面的能力。比如，今年10月，小鹏汽车展示了其新一代的XPilot 3.0； 11月的广州国际车展上，该公司还宣布将在2021年推出首款搭载激光雷达的量产智能汽车。</p>\n<p>尽管如此，股价大涨200%之后，投资者或多或少都已经意识到上述这些因素。瑞银认为，小鹏的潜在上行/下行趋势已经处于平衡了。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 小鹏处于一个高度竞争的领域。尽管我们认为P7是一款高质量产品，但是它处于特斯拉Model 3和比亚迪“汉”之间。随着大众MEB产品的推出，我们预计15万至30万售价区间将在2021年变得更加拥挤。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>比亚迪：供应链有优势，但是高销量能否持续仍存疑</b></p>\n<p>相比前两家电动车企业中性评级，瑞银把比亚迪的评级从中性降至卖出，认为比亚迪最近的股价涨幅已经远超出其公允价值。</p>\n<p>从好的方面来看，比亚迪“汉”的销量持续创下新高，今年8月至10月，销量分别为4000/5600/7500辆。另一方面，比亚迪刀片电池已经在“汉”上证明了自己的表现。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 看涨的投资者是把比亚迪的电动车业务参照电动车初创企业估值，把比亚迪的电池业务参照宁德时代进行估值。如果比亚迪能够向外部出售刀片电池，那么可能会加速剥离，释放价值。\n</blockquote>\n<p>但是需要注意的是，“汉”的销量是否能具有持续性。</p>\n<p>历史上，比亚迪电动车销量通常是快速上升，但是生命周期相对较短。尽管“汉”相对比亚迪之前的车型更具竞争力，但是它同样面临着更激烈的市场环境。尤其要注意的是一个关键时间点可能是春节后，通常此时行业进入淡季。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银密集下调小鹏、比亚迪评级：涨得有点多了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞银密集下调小鹏、比亚迪评级：涨得有点多了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-04 15:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3612470><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去一段时间，中国造车新势力股价涨势如虹，然而瑞银表示，在这一轮强劲反弹之后，他们近期不那么看多了。\n瑞银12月3日密集发布研报表示，尽管基本面强劲，但是过去三个月至六个月中国电动车企的股价涨幅超过了100%，基于这个理由他们下调了比亚迪评级至卖出，下调小鹏评级至中性。\n不过考虑到成本下降、市场渗透率提高等基本面因素的支持，瑞银提高了三只股票的目标价。总体来看，瑞银的偏好顺序依次递减分别是：蔚来、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3612470\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a7cf240033f083a329240e6179df017","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","002594":"比亚迪"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3612470","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1104020139","content_text":"过去一段时间，中国造车新势力股价涨势如虹，然而瑞银表示，在这一轮强劲反弹之后，他们近期不那么看多了。\n瑞银12月3日密集发布研报表示，尽管基本面强劲，但是过去三个月至六个月中国电动车企的股价涨幅超过了100%，基于这个理由他们下调了比亚迪评级至卖出，下调小鹏评级至中性。\n不过考虑到成本下降、市场渗透率提高等基本面因素的支持，瑞银提高了三只股票的目标价。总体来看，瑞银的偏好顺序依次递减分别是：蔚来、小鹏和比亚迪。\n\n 维持蔚来汽车评级在中性，同时目标价从16.3美元提高至55美元。小鹏汽车评级从买入下调至中性，但是目标价从25美元提高至59美元。比亚迪评级从中性下调至卖出，但是目标价从55港元提高至144港元。\n \n\n瑞银在研报中提到，尽管电池成本的下降可能会给市场带来惊喜，但是市场可能低估了电动车行业日益激烈的竞争，来自特斯拉和大众这些巨头的冲击，让一些现有企业可能面临失去部分市场份额的风险。\n此外，中国电动车企股价在今年强劲反弹，反映出投资者对相关企业风险偏好的上升。确实，好于预期的销售额和盈利都是投资者们兴奋的原因，但是这些公司的股价几乎没有计入任何下行风险。\n最后，即使在最佳情形下，目前这些电动车企的估值也过高了。\n\n 我们还对2025年最佳情形下的估值进行了分析，然而结果表明，即使在最佳情形下，目前的估值也可能处于过高的水平。尽管许多基本面因素存在强劲势头，但市值分析表明，电动车企股票的长期内在价值与目前看涨的市场估值之间存在明显的脱节。\n\n蔚来：品牌能力是强项但是估值过贵\n在三家中国电动车企中，瑞银最看好蔚来，尽管估值略高，但相对而言还是合理的。\n瑞银认为，市场已经消化了蔚来宣布的积极因素，包括销量增长、利润率提高以及未来技术的发展。但是要充分给予肯定的是，蔚来汽车已经在电动车行业树立了品牌优势，尤其是其高端市场的定位可能帮助蔚来从电动车市场的蓬勃发展中受益。\n不过，这并不意味着蔚来的前路是平坦的。\n目前特斯拉Model 3与蔚来ES8/ES6/EC6 的直接竞争是有限的，但是2021年初开始Model Y本土化，其价格将从48.8万元人民币降低至30万元人民币，这意味着将影响蔚来汽车SUV的销量。另外特斯拉还有规模优势、成本优势和品牌溢价。\n考虑到以上因素，瑞银对蔚来的估值持谨慎态度。\n\n 我们认为，从商业本质和新能源汽车初创企业的角度，特斯拉是蔚来汽车最好的基准。不过从全球品牌认知度、技术领导力和全球产能这些方面来看，蔚来还不能跟特斯拉相提并论。\n\n小鹏：自动驾驶能力突出 但产品所处赛道更加拥挤\n瑞银认为，近期小鹏汽车股价的大幅上涨已经计入了大部分积极因素，当前其估值已经高于其内在估值，但是相对而言还是合理的。\n小鹏汽车最大优势是来自其自动驾驶方面的能力。比如，今年10月，小鹏汽车展示了其新一代的XPilot 3.0； 11月的广州国际车展上，该公司还宣布将在2021年推出首款搭载激光雷达的量产智能汽车。\n尽管如此，股价大涨200%之后，投资者或多或少都已经意识到上述这些因素。瑞银认为，小鹏的潜在上行/下行趋势已经处于平衡了。\n\n 小鹏处于一个高度竞争的领域。尽管我们认为P7是一款高质量产品，但是它处于特斯拉Model 3和比亚迪“汉”之间。随着大众MEB产品的推出，我们预计15万至30万售价区间将在2021年变得更加拥挤。\n\n比亚迪：供应链有优势，但是高销量能否持续仍存疑\n相比前两家电动车企业中性评级，瑞银把比亚迪的评级从中性降至卖出，认为比亚迪最近的股价涨幅已经远超出其公允价值。\n从好的方面来看，比亚迪“汉”的销量持续创下新高，今年8月至10月，销量分别为4000/5600/7500辆。另一方面，比亚迪刀片电池已经在“汉”上证明了自己的表现。\n\n 看涨的投资者是把比亚迪的电动车业务参照电动车初创企业估值，把比亚迪的电池业务参照宁德时代进行估值。如果比亚迪能够向外部出售刀片电池，那么可能会加速剥离，释放价值。\n\n但是需要注意的是，“汉”的销量是否能具有持续性。\n历史上，比亚迪电动车销量通常是快速上升，但是生命周期相对较短。尽管“汉”相对比亚迪之前的车型更具竞争力，但是它同样面临着更激烈的市场环境。尤其要注意的是一个关键时间点可能是春节后，通常此时行业进入淡季。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":197462046,"gmtCreate":1621479752985,"gmtModify":1704358288900,"author":{"id":"3569548060329512","authorId":"3569548060329512","name":"米米西谷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd365b2bcfa2b18bab19f50df08c03b6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197462046","repostId":"1164754304","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192065089,"gmtCreate":1621131188441,"gmtModify":1704353127300,"author":{"id":"3569548060329512","authorId":"3569548060329512","name":"米米西谷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd365b2bcfa2b18bab19f50df08c03b6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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