+Follow
RyanAng
Profile：Investors :)
4
Follow
0
Followers
0
Topic
0
Badge
Posts
Hot
RyanAng
2021-05-04
ordds
RyanAng
2021-05-03
ok
Sorry, the original content has been removed
RyanAng
2021-04-20
oof lets see
RyanAng
2021-03-09
PLS LIKE MY COMMENT
The Stocks Rotation Ride Is Real, and Violent
RyanAng
2021-02-13
cool
Sorry, the original content has been removed
RyanAng
2021-02-13
Yall YOLOing?
RyanAng
2021-02-13
First Broker just testing out this broker to the moon!
Go to Tiger App to see more news
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3570248476073248,"uuid":"3570248476073248","gmtCreate":1607161860037,"gmtModify":1619661247674,"name":"RyanAng","pinyin":"ryanang","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"Investors :)","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":4,"tweetSize":7,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.09.26","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.77%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":106179677,"gmtCreate":1620097061199,"gmtModify":1704338607204,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ordds","listText":"ordds","text":"ordds","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/106179677","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108924071,"gmtCreate":1619995402193,"gmtModify":1704336961787,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108924071","repostId":"1141258080","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371865481,"gmtCreate":1618927479443,"gmtModify":1704717028154,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oof lets see","listText":"oof lets see","text":"oof lets see","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e98b5cd280c5d6a6b62bb2e228df8bfb","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371865481","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323023477,"gmtCreate":1615291058499,"gmtModify":1704780673363,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"PLS LIKE MY COMMENT ","listText":"PLS LIKE MY COMMENT ","text":"PLS LIKE MY COMMENT","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323023477","repostId":"1142460432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142460432","pubTimestamp":1615283008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142460432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 17:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stocks Rotation Ride Is Real, and Violent","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142460432","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.\nRotation, Rotation, Rotation\nLast No","content":"<p>There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.</p>\n<p><b>Rotation, Rotation, Rotation</b></p>\n<p>Last November, when excellent vaccine test results sparked a surge in stocks that had suffered most from the pandemic lockdown, it was still possible to doubt whether there had been a true market rotation. The initial drama was followed by a month or two of dithering. That doubt is over. The market is unquestionably going through a major shift. The question is how long it will continue.</p>\n<p>Within the stock market, the rotation is most pronounced in the move from “momentum” stocks, which had previously been winning, to “value” companies, which look cheap compared to their fundamentals. That change, by Bloomberg’s measure, is about as violent as any in history:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6386f1bd17b4e321382ee6a26f1e732d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>The underlying driver for stocks is the bond market. The rotation toward higher yields in bonds has slowed a little but not stopped, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield topped 1.6% again in Monday trading. Its trend now appears to be plainly upward:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0ed893e22bdf9d9d36694e66417d87a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>Underlying the move in bonds is a shift in views about the economy, driven in part by the news from Washington that Democrats should be able to push through a $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Meanwhile, there is also excitement over the fight against the pandemic, with the likely reopening date for the economy steadily moving forward. For one dramatic demonstration of this, watch the relative performance since the beginning of last year of Netflix Inc., a pure play on streaming at home, and Walt Disney Co., a bet on streaming content that also comes with a large theme park business. Disney still lags Netflix since the beginning of last year, but has outperformed it by almost 90% since its nadir last July:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403e2b3fa7d95012d5e6269246099190\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>So, a rotation is under way. That raises many questions — far too many to answer here. But here are some of the more important issues.</p>\n<p><b>What’s Bubbling?</b></p>\n<p>The question of whether we are in a stock market bubble persists. A lot depends on how to account for the undoubted prop that the market receives from low bond yields. But to an extent, the point of a bubble is that it goes beyond a point where valuation matters; it is already overvalued and the question is how overvalued it can become. That is a question of mass psychology, which can be revealed in stock charts. This is one of those times when looking at patterns in prices can have some relevance.</p>\n<p>The greatest fear is that we are staging a repeat of the great dot-com bubble that burst almost exactly 21 years ago. Rather than look at the highly speculative dot-coms that went to market without profits or even revenues to their names, this chart compares the Nasdaq-100, a tech-dominated group of large companies, against the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, a measure of the performance of the “average stock.” As can be seen, this was a bubble for the ages:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5d824bd0d01b4953bbda519d9a91ea\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>Over the year to the Nasdaq’s peak, the average stock went nowhere. And barely nine months after that, the index had given up all of its gains over the previous 12 months, and was lagging the average stock. Now, this is the same exercise repeated for the year running up to the Nasdaq-100’s high last month:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555180102d590a989cf61e0477a0ae7a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>Tech stocks became badly overpriced and are now having a correction that probably has further to go. Meanwhile the equal-weighted S&P 500 is barely below its all-time high. At this level the Nasdaq-100, in behavioral terms, isn’t a repeat of 1999-2000.</p>\n<p>However, if we look at the most exciting stock of the moment, the Ark Innovation exchange-traded fund managed by Cathie Wood, we do see a pattern that’s distinctly reminiscent of the internet craze:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/687b2e418468de72b7c3c5fa4c6209ec\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>The stocks held by Ark are potential “disrupters” that are for the most part smaller than members of the Nasdaq-100 (Tesla Inc. is a big exception). Wood herself gave a great interview with Bloomberg TV in which she conceded that the market was “broadening,” which is a positive sign of recovering optimism. She also contended that the stocks faring best — such as banks, energy companies and auto manufacturers — are exactly the kind of businesses that stand to be disrupted in the long run by Ark’s investments. These are all valid arguments; buying Amazon.com Inc. in late 1999 proved to be a superlative 20-year investment, even if you had to wait a decade before you broke even. But at this point, the most exciting speculative stocks do look as though they’ve been partying like it’s 1999.</p>\n<p><b>Self-Stabilizers</b></p>\n<p>One point about market rotations is that they come with in-built stabilizers. For example, optimism on growth and fear of inflation leads to higher interest rates, which in turn dampen growth and inflation. This becomes a key question now. Estimates for U.S. growth in 2021 have risen sharply thanks to the success of its vaccine program. Forecasts for many other countries are actively declining due to vaccine disappointment. This means that yields are rising everywhere — but far faster in the U.S. than the rest of the developed world. The following charts from Credit Suisse Group AG demonstrate this nicely:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc0dc20ce12b638eb3d0ffcc8c40b0e\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"852\"></p>\n<p>How does this change things? If lots of foreigners pour into Treasuries to take advantage of the higher yields, then the yields won’t rise so much. This was a point that David Tepper, the hedge fund investor who runs Appaloosa Management, made early Monday, to much excitement. That effect hasn’t happened yet. Alternatively, the higher yields in the U.S. succeed in attracting flows that push the dollar up. A higher dollar tends to damp inflation. Over the last four years, there is a distinct tendency for the currency to follow the path set by the gap between U.S. and German bond yields, with a lag of a couple of months. And that is already happening:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3285dc614eb4b0ededa421f50ffd7d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>The dollar’s rebound has taken many by surprise, and it could change much of the presiding narrative of a big reflation this year. It could also derail investment in emerging markets. Higher Treasury yields have had their customary effect of messing up emerging market carry trades — the practice of borrowing in currencies with low rates and parking in countries with higher rates, pocketing the carry. A promising rebound for emerging carry trades looks as though it has been snuffed out:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d87cf6d8b588ec38ec6fa81561f82b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p><b>Self-Fulfilling Prophecies</b></p>\n<p>Markets don’t just have their own stabilizers. They also have the ability to make a prophecy and know that it will come true. This could be about to happen in the great rotation between value and momentum.</p>\n<p>One popular trade among quants is to combine value and momentum. An objection is that the two will tend to cancel each other out, and much of the time they do. But every so often, there is a moment when value stocks have momentum, and the strategy goes into overdrive. Such a moment appears to be at hand.</p>\n<p>The following chart is from Mike Wilson, head U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, who points out that with the anniversary of the great selloff last March, the stocks that appear to have momentum over the last 12 months will change. Rather than being crowded with tech stocks, quants looking to buy “momentum stocks” will instead start to add banks and energy groups. So a rotation that started with a push from economic fundamentals could receive a second wind from technical factors:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e4658b732782ed964dda7f66eed987\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"654\"></p>\n<p>This isn’t so much a market stabilizer as a market destabilizer, driven by the weight of money wielded by institutions. This powerful effect could become more disruptive.</p>\n<p><b>The Power of Bonds</b></p>\n<p>So exactly how much influence do bonds have over stocks? I’d like to mention two interesting angles on this profound question. First, Deltec Bank & Trust Ltd. makes the interesting point that when yields are at very low levels, bond volatility almost by definition gets that much greater when there is any rise. This is the way Hugo Rogers of Deltec puts it:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a way it is the certainty of ‘low forever’ rates and the unlimited buying potential that is most stimulative. This is reflected in bond volatility. But now that the post COVID recovery has begun, now inflation expectations are justifiably rising, and with fears of another high-teens budget deficit, so is bond market volatility.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>This is a foundation of markets, a key component of financial conditions. As long rates rise, as bond market volatility increases, funding tightens. We have explained some of the link to other markets, but the market beyond bonds themselves, that is most effected are equities priced using zero cost of capital (unicorns).It is no surprise to see companies making no cash flow, priced off blue sky thinking, falling fastest in this market. We expect this to continue.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And indeed, if we look at the performance of Ark Innovation, compared with the MOVE index of bond volatility on an inverted scale, there is a family resemblance. While bond volatility appears under control, speculative tech companies do very well; any rise holds them back:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ffe8c874f6c050157a432719967df81\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>If bond volatility persists, we can expect the difficulties for last year’s leaders to continue too.</p>\n<p>What of the broader question of whether lower bond yields justify higher valuations on stocks? It is time for an entry from Robert Shiller of Yale University, who late last year introduced the concept of the “Excess CAPE Yield” (his measure of the long-term earnings yield on stocks minus the 10-year bond yield). The higher this gauge, the more we can expect stocks to beat bonds in future. Thanks to low bond yields, the ECY is positive at present, suggesting that stocks should indeed beat bonds.</p>\n<p>At the peak of the boom in 2000, the ECY was negative, meaning that earnings yields had dropped below bond yields, so the indicator correctly signaled that stocks were due for a period of terrible relative performance. The ECY is telling us that the current stock market isn’t as wildly overvalued as in 2000. But that is faint praise. Is it telling us that this is a great time to buy stocks?</p>\n<p>Many interpreted it that way. But Shiller wrote a column for the New York Times over the weekend that corrects that impression.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Right now the E.C.Y. is 3.15 percent. That is roughly its average for the last 20 years. It is relatively high, and it predicts that stocks will outperform bonds. Current interest rates for bonds make that a very low hurdle.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Consider that when you factor in inflation, the 10-year Treasury note, yielding around 1.4 percent, will most likely pay back less in real dollars at maturity than your original investment. Stocks may not have the usual high long-run expectations (the CAPE tells us that), but at least there is a positive long-run expected return.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Putting all of this together, I’d say the stock market is high but still in some ways more attractive than the bond market.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Shiller isn’t telling us to fill our boots with stocks, so much as to be very careful about bonds. It’s quite possible for both to fall together. If you find this disappointing, he understands:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The markets may well be dangerously high right now, and I wish my measurements provided clearer guidance, but they don’t. We can’t accurately forecast the moment-by-moment movements of birds, and the stock and bond markets are, unfortunately, much the same.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The bottom line is to continue to be careful out there. We will have to endure plenty more rotation before this is over.</p>\n<p><b>Survival Tips</b></p>\n<p>It has been hard to write this after a day spent largely giving my opinion on the Harry and Meghan interview. Sometimes being a British expat can be a problem. Anyway, on a royal theme, here is a remarkable clip of Prince playing George Harrison's <i>While My Guitar Gently Weeps</i>, in a band that includes Tom Petty and George's own son - who seems thoroughly to enjoy Prince's guitar solo, which comes towards the end of the clip. On a slightly more tenuous royal theme you could sit down and listen to <i>Their Satanic Majesties Request</i> by the Rolling Stones, or <i>Killer Queen</i> by Queen.</p>\n<p>If Harry and Meghan's travails have whetted the appetite for even more Windsors drama then my favorite actress in the part of Elizabeth II to date is Helen Mirren in <i>The Queen</i>. She also did a turn as <i>Elizabeth I</i> a year earlier — a rather more dynamic queen who had real and not figurative blood on her hands. Compare and contrast her with another dame, Judi Dench, in the same role in <i>Shakespeare In Love</i>.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stocks Rotation Ride Is Real, and Violent</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stocks Rotation Ride Is Real, and Violent\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-09 17:43 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-09/the-stocks-rotation-ride-is-real-and-violent?srnd=opinion><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.\nRotation, Rotation, Rotation\nLast November, when excellent vaccine test results sparked a surge in stocks that had suffered most from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-09/the-stocks-rotation-ride-is-real-and-violent?srnd=opinion\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMZN":"亚马逊","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","TSLA":"特斯拉","DIS":"迪士尼",".DJI":"道琼斯","NFLX":"奈飞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-09/the-stocks-rotation-ride-is-real-and-violent?srnd=opinion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142460432","content_text":"There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.\nRotation, Rotation, Rotation\nLast November, when excellent vaccine test results sparked a surge in stocks that had suffered most from the pandemic lockdown, it was still possible to doubt whether there had been a true market rotation. The initial drama was followed by a month or two of dithering. That doubt is over. The market is unquestionably going through a major shift. The question is how long it will continue.\nWithin the stock market, the rotation is most pronounced in the move from “momentum” stocks, which had previously been winning, to “value” companies, which look cheap compared to their fundamentals. That change, by Bloomberg’s measure, is about as violent as any in history:\n\nThe underlying driver for stocks is the bond market. The rotation toward higher yields in bonds has slowed a little but not stopped, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield topped 1.6% again in Monday trading. Its trend now appears to be plainly upward:\n\nUnderlying the move in bonds is a shift in views about the economy, driven in part by the news from Washington that Democrats should be able to push through a $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Meanwhile, there is also excitement over the fight against the pandemic, with the likely reopening date for the economy steadily moving forward. For one dramatic demonstration of this, watch the relative performance since the beginning of last year of Netflix Inc., a pure play on streaming at home, and Walt Disney Co., a bet on streaming content that also comes with a large theme park business. Disney still lags Netflix since the beginning of last year, but has outperformed it by almost 90% since its nadir last July:\n\nSo, a rotation is under way. That raises many questions — far too many to answer here. But here are some of the more important issues.\nWhat’s Bubbling?\nThe question of whether we are in a stock market bubble persists. A lot depends on how to account for the undoubted prop that the market receives from low bond yields. But to an extent, the point of a bubble is that it goes beyond a point where valuation matters; it is already overvalued and the question is how overvalued it can become. That is a question of mass psychology, which can be revealed in stock charts. This is one of those times when looking at patterns in prices can have some relevance.\nThe greatest fear is that we are staging a repeat of the great dot-com bubble that burst almost exactly 21 years ago. Rather than look at the highly speculative dot-coms that went to market without profits or even revenues to their names, this chart compares the Nasdaq-100, a tech-dominated group of large companies, against the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, a measure of the performance of the “average stock.” As can be seen, this was a bubble for the ages:\n\nOver the year to the Nasdaq’s peak, the average stock went nowhere. And barely nine months after that, the index had given up all of its gains over the previous 12 months, and was lagging the average stock. Now, this is the same exercise repeated for the year running up to the Nasdaq-100’s high last month:\n\nTech stocks became badly overpriced and are now having a correction that probably has further to go. Meanwhile the equal-weighted S&P 500 is barely below its all-time high. At this level the Nasdaq-100, in behavioral terms, isn’t a repeat of 1999-2000.\nHowever, if we look at the most exciting stock of the moment, the Ark Innovation exchange-traded fund managed by Cathie Wood, we do see a pattern that’s distinctly reminiscent of the internet craze:\n\nThe stocks held by Ark are potential “disrupters” that are for the most part smaller than members of the Nasdaq-100 (Tesla Inc. is a big exception). Wood herself gave a great interview with Bloomberg TV in which she conceded that the market was “broadening,” which is a positive sign of recovering optimism. She also contended that the stocks faring best — such as banks, energy companies and auto manufacturers — are exactly the kind of businesses that stand to be disrupted in the long run by Ark’s investments. These are all valid arguments; buying Amazon.com Inc. in late 1999 proved to be a superlative 20-year investment, even if you had to wait a decade before you broke even. But at this point, the most exciting speculative stocks do look as though they’ve been partying like it’s 1999.\nSelf-Stabilizers\nOne point about market rotations is that they come with in-built stabilizers. For example, optimism on growth and fear of inflation leads to higher interest rates, which in turn dampen growth and inflation. This becomes a key question now. Estimates for U.S. growth in 2021 have risen sharply thanks to the success of its vaccine program. Forecasts for many other countries are actively declining due to vaccine disappointment. This means that yields are rising everywhere — but far faster in the U.S. than the rest of the developed world. The following charts from Credit Suisse Group AG demonstrate this nicely:\n\nHow does this change things? If lots of foreigners pour into Treasuries to take advantage of the higher yields, then the yields won’t rise so much. This was a point that David Tepper, the hedge fund investor who runs Appaloosa Management, made early Monday, to much excitement. That effect hasn’t happened yet. Alternatively, the higher yields in the U.S. succeed in attracting flows that push the dollar up. A higher dollar tends to damp inflation. Over the last four years, there is a distinct tendency for the currency to follow the path set by the gap between U.S. and German bond yields, with a lag of a couple of months. And that is already happening:\n\nThe dollar’s rebound has taken many by surprise, and it could change much of the presiding narrative of a big reflation this year. It could also derail investment in emerging markets. Higher Treasury yields have had their customary effect of messing up emerging market carry trades — the practice of borrowing in currencies with low rates and parking in countries with higher rates, pocketing the carry. A promising rebound for emerging carry trades looks as though it has been snuffed out:\n\nSelf-Fulfilling Prophecies\nMarkets don’t just have their own stabilizers. They also have the ability to make a prophecy and know that it will come true. This could be about to happen in the great rotation between value and momentum.\nOne popular trade among quants is to combine value and momentum. An objection is that the two will tend to cancel each other out, and much of the time they do. But every so often, there is a moment when value stocks have momentum, and the strategy goes into overdrive. Such a moment appears to be at hand.\nThe following chart is from Mike Wilson, head U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, who points out that with the anniversary of the great selloff last March, the stocks that appear to have momentum over the last 12 months will change. Rather than being crowded with tech stocks, quants looking to buy “momentum stocks” will instead start to add banks and energy groups. So a rotation that started with a push from economic fundamentals could receive a second wind from technical factors:\n\nThis isn’t so much a market stabilizer as a market destabilizer, driven by the weight of money wielded by institutions. This powerful effect could become more disruptive.\nThe Power of Bonds\nSo exactly how much influence do bonds have over stocks? I’d like to mention two interesting angles on this profound question. First, Deltec Bank & Trust Ltd. makes the interesting point that when yields are at very low levels, bond volatility almost by definition gets that much greater when there is any rise. This is the way Hugo Rogers of Deltec puts it:\n\nIn a way it is the certainty of ‘low forever’ rates and the unlimited buying potential that is most stimulative. This is reflected in bond volatility. But now that the post COVID recovery has begun, now inflation expectations are justifiably rising, and with fears of another high-teens budget deficit, so is bond market volatility.\n\n\nThis is a foundation of markets, a key component of financial conditions. As long rates rise, as bond market volatility increases, funding tightens. We have explained some of the link to other markets, but the market beyond bonds themselves, that is most effected are equities priced using zero cost of capital (unicorns).It is no surprise to see companies making no cash flow, priced off blue sky thinking, falling fastest in this market. We expect this to continue.\n\nAnd indeed, if we look at the performance of Ark Innovation, compared with the MOVE index of bond volatility on an inverted scale, there is a family resemblance. While bond volatility appears under control, speculative tech companies do very well; any rise holds them back:\n\nIf bond volatility persists, we can expect the difficulties for last year’s leaders to continue too.\nWhat of the broader question of whether lower bond yields justify higher valuations on stocks? It is time for an entry from Robert Shiller of Yale University, who late last year introduced the concept of the “Excess CAPE Yield” (his measure of the long-term earnings yield on stocks minus the 10-year bond yield). The higher this gauge, the more we can expect stocks to beat bonds in future. Thanks to low bond yields, the ECY is positive at present, suggesting that stocks should indeed beat bonds.\nAt the peak of the boom in 2000, the ECY was negative, meaning that earnings yields had dropped below bond yields, so the indicator correctly signaled that stocks were due for a period of terrible relative performance. The ECY is telling us that the current stock market isn’t as wildly overvalued as in 2000. But that is faint praise. Is it telling us that this is a great time to buy stocks?\nMany interpreted it that way. But Shiller wrote a column for the New York Times over the weekend that corrects that impression.\n\nRight now the E.C.Y. is 3.15 percent. That is roughly its average for the last 20 years. It is relatively high, and it predicts that stocks will outperform bonds. Current interest rates for bonds make that a very low hurdle.\n\n\nConsider that when you factor in inflation, the 10-year Treasury note, yielding around 1.4 percent, will most likely pay back less in real dollars at maturity than your original investment. Stocks may not have the usual high long-run expectations (the CAPE tells us that), but at least there is a positive long-run expected return.\n\n\nPutting all of this together, I’d say the stock market is high but still in some ways more attractive than the bond market.\n\nShiller isn’t telling us to fill our boots with stocks, so much as to be very careful about bonds. It’s quite possible for both to fall together. If you find this disappointing, he understands:\n\nThe markets may well be dangerously high right now, and I wish my measurements provided clearer guidance, but they don’t. We can’t accurately forecast the moment-by-moment movements of birds, and the stock and bond markets are, unfortunately, much the same.\n\nThe bottom line is to continue to be careful out there. We will have to endure plenty more rotation before this is over.\nSurvival Tips\nIt has been hard to write this after a day spent largely giving my opinion on the Harry and Meghan interview. Sometimes being a British expat can be a problem. Anyway, on a royal theme, here is a remarkable clip of Prince playing George Harrison's While My Guitar Gently Weeps, in a band that includes Tom Petty and George's own son - who seems thoroughly to enjoy Prince's guitar solo, which comes towards the end of the clip. On a slightly more tenuous royal theme you could sit down and listen to Their Satanic Majesties Request by the Rolling Stones, or Killer Queen by Queen.\nIf Harry and Meghan's travails have whetted the appetite for even more Windsors drama then my favorite actress in the part of Elizabeth II to date is Helen Mirren in The Queen. She also did a turn as Elizabeth I a year earlier — a rather more dynamic queen who had real and not figurative blood on her hands. Compare and contrast her with another dame, Judi Dench, in the same role in Shakespeare In Love.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386594282,"gmtCreate":1613196908746,"gmtModify":1704879395048,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386594282","repostId":"2111648071","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386594167,"gmtCreate":1613196877259,"gmtModify":1704879394559,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yall YOLOing?","listText":"Yall YOLOing?","text":"Yall YOLOing?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647edd1aeb8e4315fbb62eda6ec2f930","width":"1125","height":"3797"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386594167","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386595358,"gmtCreate":1613196658774,"gmtModify":1704879393211,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"First Broker just testing out this broker to the moon!","listText":"First Broker just testing out this broker to the moon!","text":"First Broker just testing out this broker to the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386595358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":108924071,"gmtCreate":1619995402193,"gmtModify":1704336961787,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108924071","repostId":"1141258080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141258080","pubTimestamp":1619794455,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141258080?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-30 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Berkshire's annual meeting is Saturday with Buffett and Munger together again, shares at a record","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141258080","media":"CNBC","summary":"Warren Buffettwill kick offBerkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting this Saturday riding high","content":"<div>\n<p>Warren Buffettwill kick offBerkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting this Saturday riding high, with shares of the conglomerate at a record and its myriad of operating businesses and equity ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/berkshires-annual-meeting-is-saturday-with-buffett-and-munger-together-again-shares-at-a-record.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Berkshire's annual meeting is Saturday with Buffett and Munger together again, shares at a record</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBerkshire's annual meeting is Saturday with Buffett and Munger together again, shares at a record\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 22:54 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/berkshires-annual-meeting-is-saturday-with-buffett-and-munger-together-again-shares-at-a-record.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffettwill kick offBerkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting this Saturday riding high, with shares of the conglomerate at a record and its myriad of operating businesses and equity ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/berkshires-annual-meeting-is-saturday-with-buffett-and-munger-together-again-shares-at-a-record.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/berkshires-annual-meeting-is-saturday-with-buffett-and-munger-together-again-shares-at-a-record.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1141258080","content_text":"Warren Buffettwill kick offBerkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting this Saturday riding high, with shares of the conglomerate at a record and its myriad of operating businesses and equity investments primed to benefit from the U.S. economy reopening from the pandemic.The event will be held virtually without attendees for a second time because of Covid-19. This year, however, the 90-year-old Buffett is taking the meeting to Los Angeles so he can be by 97-year-old Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger’s side once again. Munger resides in Los Angeles and missed the last annual meeting due to travel restrictions. It will be the first time that the annual meeting will take place outside of Omaha, Nebraska.While “Woodstock for Capitalists” will be missing the capitalists once again, the tone of the meeting may more likely resemble the meetings of old with shareholders clamoring for Buffett’s outlook on the world following an unprecedented year and the Oracle more likely to oblige after holding back last year with the country just starting its fight through the deadly and uncertain pandemic.“I hope there would be a pretty sharp contrast in the overall demeanor of the folks at Berkshire,” said Cathy Seifert, a Berkshire analyst at CFRA Research. “Last year, there was a degree of an alarm just because this was an event that was very difficult to price. It was kind of written all over his face. This annual meeting, the tone from an underlying operational perspective should be more relaxed.”(You can view last year’s annual meeting and the others at theWarren Buffett Archive.)Berkshire’s other vice chairmen, Ajit Jain and Greg Abel, will be on hand to answer the three-and-a-half hours of questions as well.Berkshire’s B shareswere up more than 1% on the week, bringing their return in the last 12 months to more than 47%.Among the big topics shareholders will want answers on:Airlines:His thoughts on the industry after revealing at last year’s meeting he sold his entire stake (with the shares then subsequently roaring back).Deploying the $138 billion cash pile:Why he’s been buying back a record amount of Berkshire’s stock instead of making one large acquisition and what his plan is going forward.Market outlook:His thought’s on the stock market’s overall valuation following the pandemic comebackBubbles?:Cryptocurrencies and the other possible market manias that have popped up amid the huge rush of retail investors into marketsLife after Buffett and Munger:Berkshire’s succession planDumped airlinesAt the last annual meeting, Buffett revealed that Berkshiresold the entirety of its equity positionin the U.S. airline industry, includingstakes in United, American, Southwest and Delta Air Lines, worth north of $4 billion.“The world has changed for the airlines. And I don’t know how it’s changed and I hope it corrects itself in a reasonably prompt way,” Buffett said at the time. “I don’t know if Americans have now changed their habits or will change their habits because of the extended period.”The sale conveyed a pessimistic view on the industry from the legendary buy-and-hold investor. Many Buffett watchers were left disappointed, however, as shares of those carriers soon embarked on an epic rebound, rallying triple digits from 2020 lows. Even president Donald Trump weighed in on the trade back then, saying that Buffett has been right “his whole life,” butmade a mistake selling airlines.“He might acknowledge that the velocity of this recovery was greater than anticipated,” said Seifert. “The airline disposal may have been a function of their belief that what’s going on in the airline industry may be secular and not cyclical. That’s the one fine distinction that investors may want him to make.”While airline stocks have rebounded drastically over the past year, many argue that the industry may have indeed changed fundamentally due to the economic fallout and the road to a full recovery remains bumpy.United Airlines said this month thatbusiness and international travel recovery is still far off even as the economy continues to reopen.“He may still be right about the airline industry with travel coming back slowly and there being too many planes,” said James Shanahan, a Berkshire analyst at Edward Jones. “Arguably he could still be right about that, but he’s certainly wrong on the stocks.”New stock movesBerkshire bought back arecord of $24.7 billion in its own shares last year, while Buffett also did some bargain-hunting amid the market comeback with sizable positions in big dividend payers ChevronandVerizon.Applewas still the conglomerate’s biggest common stock investment as of the end of 2020. Buffett’s conglomerate also appeared to dial back its exposure to financials. Berkshire exited itsJPMorganandPNC positionat the end of last year, while cutting theWells Fargostake was cut by nearly 60%.“When you think about the legacy of Berkshire Hathaway and all the operating businesses, including railroads, manufacturing, retail, utilities, it’s all old economy type companies,” Shanahan said. “The way the portfolio is comprised now after the selling of airline stocks and selling of the financial stocks, together with huge performance in Apple, it looks a lot more new economy now.”Shanahan estimated that Berkshire bought back another $5 billion of its own shares in the first quarter according to proxy filings.‘Elephant-sized’ deal?The conglomerate was still sitting on a huge cash war chest with more than $138 billion at the end of 2020. Buffett has yet to make the “elephant-sized acquisition” he’s been touting for years. At last year’s meeting, the legendary investor gave a simple reason for his inaction.“We have not done anything because we haven’t seen anything that attractive,” Buffett said. “We are not doing anything big, obviously. We are willing to do something very big. I mean you could come to me on Monday morning with something that involved $30, or $40 billion or $50 billion. And if we really like what we are seeing, we would do it.”The deal-making environment has only become all the more competitive over the past year with the meteoric rise of SPACs, or special purpose acquisition companies. More than 500 blank-check deals with over $138 billion funds are seeking their target companies currently, according to SPAC Research.“This is a significant company with a significant cash position. Investors have the right to know what they intend to deploy the cash,” Seifert said. “They are entitled to have more than just an excuse. Investors are going to start to grow a bit weary if it’s just the same old story. But the stock has recovered nicely, so they are not going to be grumbling too much.”SuccessionWhen it comes to a concrete succession plan, shareholders might not get much more from Buffett and Munger even though they are now both nonagenarians.Abel, vice chairman of noninsurance operations at Berkshire, is seen as a top contender as Buffett’s successor.“I do not expect him to talk about succession in any more detail than he already had,” Shanahan said. “Elevating the status of Abel and Jain to the roles of vice chairmen and having them available and participating in annual meeting speaks volume. I don’t think he necessarily has to say more than that.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386594282,"gmtCreate":1613196908746,"gmtModify":1704879395048,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386594282","repostId":"2111648071","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323023477,"gmtCreate":1615291058499,"gmtModify":1704780673363,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"PLS LIKE MY COMMENT ","listText":"PLS LIKE MY COMMENT ","text":"PLS LIKE MY COMMENT","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323023477","repostId":"1142460432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142460432","pubTimestamp":1615283008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142460432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 17:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stocks Rotation Ride Is Real, and Violent","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142460432","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.\nRotation, Rotation, Rotation\nLast No","content":"<p>There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.</p>\n<p><b>Rotation, Rotation, Rotation</b></p>\n<p>Last November, when excellent vaccine test results sparked a surge in stocks that had suffered most from the pandemic lockdown, it was still possible to doubt whether there had been a true market rotation. The initial drama was followed by a month or two of dithering. That doubt is over. The market is unquestionably going through a major shift. The question is how long it will continue.</p>\n<p>Within the stock market, the rotation is most pronounced in the move from “momentum” stocks, which had previously been winning, to “value” companies, which look cheap compared to their fundamentals. That change, by Bloomberg’s measure, is about as violent as any in history:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6386f1bd17b4e321382ee6a26f1e732d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>The underlying driver for stocks is the bond market. The rotation toward higher yields in bonds has slowed a little but not stopped, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield topped 1.6% again in Monday trading. Its trend now appears to be plainly upward:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0ed893e22bdf9d9d36694e66417d87a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>Underlying the move in bonds is a shift in views about the economy, driven in part by the news from Washington that Democrats should be able to push through a $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Meanwhile, there is also excitement over the fight against the pandemic, with the likely reopening date for the economy steadily moving forward. For one dramatic demonstration of this, watch the relative performance since the beginning of last year of Netflix Inc., a pure play on streaming at home, and Walt Disney Co., a bet on streaming content that also comes with a large theme park business. Disney still lags Netflix since the beginning of last year, but has outperformed it by almost 90% since its nadir last July:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403e2b3fa7d95012d5e6269246099190\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>So, a rotation is under way. That raises many questions — far too many to answer here. But here are some of the more important issues.</p>\n<p><b>What’s Bubbling?</b></p>\n<p>The question of whether we are in a stock market bubble persists. A lot depends on how to account for the undoubted prop that the market receives from low bond yields. But to an extent, the point of a bubble is that it goes beyond a point where valuation matters; it is already overvalued and the question is how overvalued it can become. That is a question of mass psychology, which can be revealed in stock charts. This is one of those times when looking at patterns in prices can have some relevance.</p>\n<p>The greatest fear is that we are staging a repeat of the great dot-com bubble that burst almost exactly 21 years ago. Rather than look at the highly speculative dot-coms that went to market without profits or even revenues to their names, this chart compares the Nasdaq-100, a tech-dominated group of large companies, against the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, a measure of the performance of the “average stock.” As can be seen, this was a bubble for the ages:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5d824bd0d01b4953bbda519d9a91ea\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>Over the year to the Nasdaq’s peak, the average stock went nowhere. And barely nine months after that, the index had given up all of its gains over the previous 12 months, and was lagging the average stock. Now, this is the same exercise repeated for the year running up to the Nasdaq-100’s high last month:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555180102d590a989cf61e0477a0ae7a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>Tech stocks became badly overpriced and are now having a correction that probably has further to go. Meanwhile the equal-weighted S&P 500 is barely below its all-time high. At this level the Nasdaq-100, in behavioral terms, isn’t a repeat of 1999-2000.</p>\n<p>However, if we look at the most exciting stock of the moment, the Ark Innovation exchange-traded fund managed by Cathie Wood, we do see a pattern that’s distinctly reminiscent of the internet craze:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/687b2e418468de72b7c3c5fa4c6209ec\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>The stocks held by Ark are potential “disrupters” that are for the most part smaller than members of the Nasdaq-100 (Tesla Inc. is a big exception). Wood herself gave a great interview with Bloomberg TV in which she conceded that the market was “broadening,” which is a positive sign of recovering optimism. She also contended that the stocks faring best — such as banks, energy companies and auto manufacturers — are exactly the kind of businesses that stand to be disrupted in the long run by Ark’s investments. These are all valid arguments; buying Amazon.com Inc. in late 1999 proved to be a superlative 20-year investment, even if you had to wait a decade before you broke even. But at this point, the most exciting speculative stocks do look as though they’ve been partying like it’s 1999.</p>\n<p><b>Self-Stabilizers</b></p>\n<p>One point about market rotations is that they come with in-built stabilizers. For example, optimism on growth and fear of inflation leads to higher interest rates, which in turn dampen growth and inflation. This becomes a key question now. Estimates for U.S. growth in 2021 have risen sharply thanks to the success of its vaccine program. Forecasts for many other countries are actively declining due to vaccine disappointment. This means that yields are rising everywhere — but far faster in the U.S. than the rest of the developed world. The following charts from Credit Suisse Group AG demonstrate this nicely:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc0dc20ce12b638eb3d0ffcc8c40b0e\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"852\"></p>\n<p>How does this change things? If lots of foreigners pour into Treasuries to take advantage of the higher yields, then the yields won’t rise so much. This was a point that David Tepper, the hedge fund investor who runs Appaloosa Management, made early Monday, to much excitement. That effect hasn’t happened yet. Alternatively, the higher yields in the U.S. succeed in attracting flows that push the dollar up. A higher dollar tends to damp inflation. Over the last four years, there is a distinct tendency for the currency to follow the path set by the gap between U.S. and German bond yields, with a lag of a couple of months. And that is already happening:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3285dc614eb4b0ededa421f50ffd7d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>The dollar’s rebound has taken many by surprise, and it could change much of the presiding narrative of a big reflation this year. It could also derail investment in emerging markets. Higher Treasury yields have had their customary effect of messing up emerging market carry trades — the practice of borrowing in currencies with low rates and parking in countries with higher rates, pocketing the carry. A promising rebound for emerging carry trades looks as though it has been snuffed out:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d87cf6d8b588ec38ec6fa81561f82b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p><b>Self-Fulfilling Prophecies</b></p>\n<p>Markets don’t just have their own stabilizers. They also have the ability to make a prophecy and know that it will come true. This could be about to happen in the great rotation between value and momentum.</p>\n<p>One popular trade among quants is to combine value and momentum. An objection is that the two will tend to cancel each other out, and much of the time they do. But every so often, there is a moment when value stocks have momentum, and the strategy goes into overdrive. Such a moment appears to be at hand.</p>\n<p>The following chart is from Mike Wilson, head U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, who points out that with the anniversary of the great selloff last March, the stocks that appear to have momentum over the last 12 months will change. Rather than being crowded with tech stocks, quants looking to buy “momentum stocks” will instead start to add banks and energy groups. So a rotation that started with a push from economic fundamentals could receive a second wind from technical factors:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e4658b732782ed964dda7f66eed987\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"654\"></p>\n<p>This isn’t so much a market stabilizer as a market destabilizer, driven by the weight of money wielded by institutions. This powerful effect could become more disruptive.</p>\n<p><b>The Power of Bonds</b></p>\n<p>So exactly how much influence do bonds have over stocks? I’d like to mention two interesting angles on this profound question. First, Deltec Bank & Trust Ltd. makes the interesting point that when yields are at very low levels, bond volatility almost by definition gets that much greater when there is any rise. This is the way Hugo Rogers of Deltec puts it:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a way it is the certainty of ‘low forever’ rates and the unlimited buying potential that is most stimulative. This is reflected in bond volatility. But now that the post COVID recovery has begun, now inflation expectations are justifiably rising, and with fears of another high-teens budget deficit, so is bond market volatility.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>This is a foundation of markets, a key component of financial conditions. As long rates rise, as bond market volatility increases, funding tightens. We have explained some of the link to other markets, but the market beyond bonds themselves, that is most effected are equities priced using zero cost of capital (unicorns).It is no surprise to see companies making no cash flow, priced off blue sky thinking, falling fastest in this market. We expect this to continue.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And indeed, if we look at the performance of Ark Innovation, compared with the MOVE index of bond volatility on an inverted scale, there is a family resemblance. While bond volatility appears under control, speculative tech companies do very well; any rise holds them back:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ffe8c874f6c050157a432719967df81\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>If bond volatility persists, we can expect the difficulties for last year’s leaders to continue too.</p>\n<p>What of the broader question of whether lower bond yields justify higher valuations on stocks? It is time for an entry from Robert Shiller of Yale University, who late last year introduced the concept of the “Excess CAPE Yield” (his measure of the long-term earnings yield on stocks minus the 10-year bond yield). The higher this gauge, the more we can expect stocks to beat bonds in future. Thanks to low bond yields, the ECY is positive at present, suggesting that stocks should indeed beat bonds.</p>\n<p>At the peak of the boom in 2000, the ECY was negative, meaning that earnings yields had dropped below bond yields, so the indicator correctly signaled that stocks were due for a period of terrible relative performance. The ECY is telling us that the current stock market isn’t as wildly overvalued as in 2000. But that is faint praise. Is it telling us that this is a great time to buy stocks?</p>\n<p>Many interpreted it that way. But Shiller wrote a column for the New York Times over the weekend that corrects that impression.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Right now the E.C.Y. is 3.15 percent. That is roughly its average for the last 20 years. It is relatively high, and it predicts that stocks will outperform bonds. Current interest rates for bonds make that a very low hurdle.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Consider that when you factor in inflation, the 10-year Treasury note, yielding around 1.4 percent, will most likely pay back less in real dollars at maturity than your original investment. Stocks may not have the usual high long-run expectations (the CAPE tells us that), but at least there is a positive long-run expected return.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Putting all of this together, I’d say the stock market is high but still in some ways more attractive than the bond market.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Shiller isn’t telling us to fill our boots with stocks, so much as to be very careful about bonds. It’s quite possible for both to fall together. If you find this disappointing, he understands:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The markets may well be dangerously high right now, and I wish my measurements provided clearer guidance, but they don’t. We can’t accurately forecast the moment-by-moment movements of birds, and the stock and bond markets are, unfortunately, much the same.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The bottom line is to continue to be careful out there. We will have to endure plenty more rotation before this is over.</p>\n<p><b>Survival Tips</b></p>\n<p>It has been hard to write this after a day spent largely giving my opinion on the Harry and Meghan interview. Sometimes being a British expat can be a problem. Anyway, on a royal theme, here is a remarkable clip of Prince playing George Harrison's <i>While My Guitar Gently Weeps</i>, in a band that includes Tom Petty and George's own son - who seems thoroughly to enjoy Prince's guitar solo, which comes towards the end of the clip. On a slightly more tenuous royal theme you could sit down and listen to <i>Their Satanic Majesties Request</i> by the Rolling Stones, or <i>Killer Queen</i> by Queen.</p>\n<p>If Harry and Meghan's travails have whetted the appetite for even more Windsors drama then my favorite actress in the part of Elizabeth II to date is Helen Mirren in <i>The Queen</i>. She also did a turn as <i>Elizabeth I</i> a year earlier — a rather more dynamic queen who had real and not figurative blood on her hands. Compare and contrast her with another dame, Judi Dench, in the same role in <i>Shakespeare In Love</i>.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stocks Rotation Ride Is Real, and Violent</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stocks Rotation Ride Is Real, and Violent\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-09 17:43 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-09/the-stocks-rotation-ride-is-real-and-violent?srnd=opinion><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.\nRotation, Rotation, Rotation\nLast November, when excellent vaccine test results sparked a surge in stocks that had suffered most from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-09/the-stocks-rotation-ride-is-real-and-violent?srnd=opinion\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMZN":"亚马逊","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","TSLA":"特斯拉","DIS":"迪士尼",".DJI":"道琼斯","NFLX":"奈飞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-09/the-stocks-rotation-ride-is-real-and-violent?srnd=opinion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142460432","content_text":"There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.\nRotation, Rotation, Rotation\nLast November, when excellent vaccine test results sparked a surge in stocks that had suffered most from the pandemic lockdown, it was still possible to doubt whether there had been a true market rotation. The initial drama was followed by a month or two of dithering. That doubt is over. The market is unquestionably going through a major shift. The question is how long it will continue.\nWithin the stock market, the rotation is most pronounced in the move from “momentum” stocks, which had previously been winning, to “value” companies, which look cheap compared to their fundamentals. That change, by Bloomberg’s measure, is about as violent as any in history:\n\nThe underlying driver for stocks is the bond market. The rotation toward higher yields in bonds has slowed a little but not stopped, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield topped 1.6% again in Monday trading. Its trend now appears to be plainly upward:\n\nUnderlying the move in bonds is a shift in views about the economy, driven in part by the news from Washington that Democrats should be able to push through a $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Meanwhile, there is also excitement over the fight against the pandemic, with the likely reopening date for the economy steadily moving forward. For one dramatic demonstration of this, watch the relative performance since the beginning of last year of Netflix Inc., a pure play on streaming at home, and Walt Disney Co., a bet on streaming content that also comes with a large theme park business. Disney still lags Netflix since the beginning of last year, but has outperformed it by almost 90% since its nadir last July:\n\nSo, a rotation is under way. That raises many questions — far too many to answer here. But here are some of the more important issues.\nWhat’s Bubbling?\nThe question of whether we are in a stock market bubble persists. A lot depends on how to account for the undoubted prop that the market receives from low bond yields. But to an extent, the point of a bubble is that it goes beyond a point where valuation matters; it is already overvalued and the question is how overvalued it can become. That is a question of mass psychology, which can be revealed in stock charts. This is one of those times when looking at patterns in prices can have some relevance.\nThe greatest fear is that we are staging a repeat of the great dot-com bubble that burst almost exactly 21 years ago. Rather than look at the highly speculative dot-coms that went to market without profits or even revenues to their names, this chart compares the Nasdaq-100, a tech-dominated group of large companies, against the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, a measure of the performance of the “average stock.” As can be seen, this was a bubble for the ages:\n\nOver the year to the Nasdaq’s peak, the average stock went nowhere. And barely nine months after that, the index had given up all of its gains over the previous 12 months, and was lagging the average stock. Now, this is the same exercise repeated for the year running up to the Nasdaq-100’s high last month:\n\nTech stocks became badly overpriced and are now having a correction that probably has further to go. Meanwhile the equal-weighted S&P 500 is barely below its all-time high. At this level the Nasdaq-100, in behavioral terms, isn’t a repeat of 1999-2000.\nHowever, if we look at the most exciting stock of the moment, the Ark Innovation exchange-traded fund managed by Cathie Wood, we do see a pattern that’s distinctly reminiscent of the internet craze:\n\nThe stocks held by Ark are potential “disrupters” that are for the most part smaller than members of the Nasdaq-100 (Tesla Inc. is a big exception). Wood herself gave a great interview with Bloomberg TV in which she conceded that the market was “broadening,” which is a positive sign of recovering optimism. She also contended that the stocks faring best — such as banks, energy companies and auto manufacturers — are exactly the kind of businesses that stand to be disrupted in the long run by Ark’s investments. These are all valid arguments; buying Amazon.com Inc. in late 1999 proved to be a superlative 20-year investment, even if you had to wait a decade before you broke even. But at this point, the most exciting speculative stocks do look as though they’ve been partying like it’s 1999.\nSelf-Stabilizers\nOne point about market rotations is that they come with in-built stabilizers. For example, optimism on growth and fear of inflation leads to higher interest rates, which in turn dampen growth and inflation. This becomes a key question now. Estimates for U.S. growth in 2021 have risen sharply thanks to the success of its vaccine program. Forecasts for many other countries are actively declining due to vaccine disappointment. This means that yields are rising everywhere — but far faster in the U.S. than the rest of the developed world. The following charts from Credit Suisse Group AG demonstrate this nicely:\n\nHow does this change things? If lots of foreigners pour into Treasuries to take advantage of the higher yields, then the yields won’t rise so much. This was a point that David Tepper, the hedge fund investor who runs Appaloosa Management, made early Monday, to much excitement. That effect hasn’t happened yet. Alternatively, the higher yields in the U.S. succeed in attracting flows that push the dollar up. A higher dollar tends to damp inflation. Over the last four years, there is a distinct tendency for the currency to follow the path set by the gap between U.S. and German bond yields, with a lag of a couple of months. And that is already happening:\n\nThe dollar’s rebound has taken many by surprise, and it could change much of the presiding narrative of a big reflation this year. It could also derail investment in emerging markets. Higher Treasury yields have had their customary effect of messing up emerging market carry trades — the practice of borrowing in currencies with low rates and parking in countries with higher rates, pocketing the carry. A promising rebound for emerging carry trades looks as though it has been snuffed out:\n\nSelf-Fulfilling Prophecies\nMarkets don’t just have their own stabilizers. They also have the ability to make a prophecy and know that it will come true. This could be about to happen in the great rotation between value and momentum.\nOne popular trade among quants is to combine value and momentum. An objection is that the two will tend to cancel each other out, and much of the time they do. But every so often, there is a moment when value stocks have momentum, and the strategy goes into overdrive. Such a moment appears to be at hand.\nThe following chart is from Mike Wilson, head U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, who points out that with the anniversary of the great selloff last March, the stocks that appear to have momentum over the last 12 months will change. Rather than being crowded with tech stocks, quants looking to buy “momentum stocks” will instead start to add banks and energy groups. So a rotation that started with a push from economic fundamentals could receive a second wind from technical factors:\n\nThis isn’t so much a market stabilizer as a market destabilizer, driven by the weight of money wielded by institutions. This powerful effect could become more disruptive.\nThe Power of Bonds\nSo exactly how much influence do bonds have over stocks? I’d like to mention two interesting angles on this profound question. First, Deltec Bank & Trust Ltd. makes the interesting point that when yields are at very low levels, bond volatility almost by definition gets that much greater when there is any rise. This is the way Hugo Rogers of Deltec puts it:\n\nIn a way it is the certainty of ‘low forever’ rates and the unlimited buying potential that is most stimulative. This is reflected in bond volatility. But now that the post COVID recovery has begun, now inflation expectations are justifiably rising, and with fears of another high-teens budget deficit, so is bond market volatility.\n\n\nThis is a foundation of markets, a key component of financial conditions. As long rates rise, as bond market volatility increases, funding tightens. We have explained some of the link to other markets, but the market beyond bonds themselves, that is most effected are equities priced using zero cost of capital (unicorns).It is no surprise to see companies making no cash flow, priced off blue sky thinking, falling fastest in this market. We expect this to continue.\n\nAnd indeed, if we look at the performance of Ark Innovation, compared with the MOVE index of bond volatility on an inverted scale, there is a family resemblance. While bond volatility appears under control, speculative tech companies do very well; any rise holds them back:\n\nIf bond volatility persists, we can expect the difficulties for last year’s leaders to continue too.\nWhat of the broader question of whether lower bond yields justify higher valuations on stocks? It is time for an entry from Robert Shiller of Yale University, who late last year introduced the concept of the “Excess CAPE Yield” (his measure of the long-term earnings yield on stocks minus the 10-year bond yield). The higher this gauge, the more we can expect stocks to beat bonds in future. Thanks to low bond yields, the ECY is positive at present, suggesting that stocks should indeed beat bonds.\nAt the peak of the boom in 2000, the ECY was negative, meaning that earnings yields had dropped below bond yields, so the indicator correctly signaled that stocks were due for a period of terrible relative performance. The ECY is telling us that the current stock market isn’t as wildly overvalued as in 2000. But that is faint praise. Is it telling us that this is a great time to buy stocks?\nMany interpreted it that way. But Shiller wrote a column for the New York Times over the weekend that corrects that impression.\n\nRight now the E.C.Y. is 3.15 percent. That is roughly its average for the last 20 years. It is relatively high, and it predicts that stocks will outperform bonds. Current interest rates for bonds make that a very low hurdle.\n\n\nConsider that when you factor in inflation, the 10-year Treasury note, yielding around 1.4 percent, will most likely pay back less in real dollars at maturity than your original investment. Stocks may not have the usual high long-run expectations (the CAPE tells us that), but at least there is a positive long-run expected return.\n\n\nPutting all of this together, I’d say the stock market is high but still in some ways more attractive than the bond market.\n\nShiller isn’t telling us to fill our boots with stocks, so much as to be very careful about bonds. It’s quite possible for both to fall together. If you find this disappointing, he understands:\n\nThe markets may well be dangerously high right now, and I wish my measurements provided clearer guidance, but they don’t. We can’t accurately forecast the moment-by-moment movements of birds, and the stock and bond markets are, unfortunately, much the same.\n\nThe bottom line is to continue to be careful out there. We will have to endure plenty more rotation before this is over.\nSurvival Tips\nIt has been hard to write this after a day spent largely giving my opinion on the Harry and Meghan interview. Sometimes being a British expat can be a problem. Anyway, on a royal theme, here is a remarkable clip of Prince playing George Harrison's While My Guitar Gently Weeps, in a band that includes Tom Petty and George's own son - who seems thoroughly to enjoy Prince's guitar solo, which comes towards the end of the clip. On a slightly more tenuous royal theme you could sit down and listen to Their Satanic Majesties Request by the Rolling Stones, or Killer Queen by Queen.\nIf Harry and Meghan's travails have whetted the appetite for even more Windsors drama then my favorite actress in the part of Elizabeth II to date is Helen Mirren in The Queen. She also did a turn as Elizabeth I a year earlier — a rather more dynamic queen who had real and not figurative blood on her hands. Compare and contrast her with another dame, Judi Dench, in the same role in Shakespeare In Love.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106179677,"gmtCreate":1620097061199,"gmtModify":1704338607204,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ordds","listText":"ordds","text":"ordds","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/106179677","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371865481,"gmtCreate":1618927479443,"gmtModify":1704717028154,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oof lets see","listText":"oof lets see","text":"oof lets see","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e98b5cd280c5d6a6b62bb2e228df8bfb","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371865481","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386594167,"gmtCreate":1613196877259,"gmtModify":1704879394559,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yall YOLOing?","listText":"Yall YOLOing?","text":"Yall YOLOing?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647edd1aeb8e4315fbb62eda6ec2f930","width":"1125","height":"3797"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386594167","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386595358,"gmtCreate":1613196658774,"gmtModify":1704879393211,"author":{"id":"3570248476073248","authorId":"3570248476073248","name":"RyanAng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551afe9704f49bd8a6ae03f67d5ff9e2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"First Broker just testing out this broker to the moon!","listText":"First Broker just testing out this broker to the moon!","text":"First Broker just testing out this broker to the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386595358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
