ashburn personal page - To The Moon

ashburn

ashburn

No personal profile

9Follow

4Followers

0Topic

0Badge

10-28

$LEN VERTICAL 241115 PUT 165.0/PUT 160.0$ good chance to earn some premium

07-04

Huat ar! Nvdia is over priced

2022-10-10

Waiting for more drop after the CPI is announced this Thursday

CPI Sets the Stage for Fed's November Hike, Banks Report for Q3: What to Know This Week

2022-10-06

Short term volatility but long term should be a good start to DCA to build positions for the next 5 -10 yrs

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-05

Short rally to take some small profits

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-03

Keeping my full position

Alibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?

2022-04-14

Hope it's just fear

Alibaba Group: Unjustifiably Cheap

2021-12-31

Nio

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-09

Nice

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3570794022406987","uuid":"3570794022406987","gmtCreate":1607702123505,"gmtModify":1730094913547,"name":"ashburn","pinyin":"ashburn","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":4,"headSize":9,"tweetSize":12,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"4e86300037264823b9bb00ff44fc0f19-2","templateUuid":"4e86300037264823b9bb00ff44fc0f19","name":"Live trading challenger","description":"for 4 months ","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/555a9001c6de2ba066c0850c80b6475a","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/acd8d1536c6533b9c274771f100401c4","grayImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c254e1fa3d75a472d0f55ebb1dd1ff4","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/stock-contest?adcode=StockContest2023","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.08.03","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":5600},{"badgeId":"23f878ed27704312ae41c7f17e73b319-2","templateUuid":"23f878ed27704312ae41c7f17e73b319","name":"Annualised return","description":"Top 30%","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50461c8139b6ca50fe2dae19aa769b25","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8eef504853d5a517c50d7a88fa5c1e1","grayImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5273727845028b8d9b65556bdcb217b9","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/stock-contest?adcode=StockContest2023","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.05.16","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":5300},{"badgeId":"f00de38e20574ad1abf55a15966547c8-1","templateUuid":"f00de38e20574ad1abf55a15966547c8","name":"Average winning trade","description":"Top 50%","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f53cdecfbff6499d133bad354ae10ff1","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2554f84686bbcccc035b93fe29308e43","grayImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/84c66bc70ac1cf09f4e89b1d4ca9d017","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/stock-contest?adcode=StockContest2023","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.03.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":5200},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.09.08","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.78%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.03","exceedPercentage":"93.81%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":8,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.03.29","exceedPercentage":"80.98%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":3,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":364887271567608,"gmtCreate":1730094141538,"gmtModify":1730094371622,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/LEN 20241115 160.0 PUT SELL 1 | LEN 20241115 165.0 PUT BUY 1\">$LEN VERTICAL 241115 PUT 165.0/PUT 160.0$</a> good chance to earn some premium","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/LEN 20241115 160.0 PUT SELL 1 | LEN 20241115 165.0 PUT BUY 1\">$LEN VERTICAL 241115 PUT 165.0/PUT 160.0$</a> good chance to earn some premium","text":"$LEN VERTICAL 241115 PUT 165.0/PUT 160.0$ good chance to earn some premium","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e887c21af2bc6bbcd7e8ce7b6ed12151","width":"1022","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364887271567608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323826112094264,"gmtCreate":1720065155519,"gmtModify":1720065159092,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat ar! Nvdia is over priced","listText":"Huat ar! Nvdia is over priced","text":"Huat ar! Nvdia is over priced","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323826112094264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914770604,"gmtCreate":1665373152708,"gmtModify":1676537595003,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for more drop after the CPI is announced this Thursday&nbsp;","listText":"Waiting for more drop after the CPI is announced this Thursday&nbsp;","text":"Waiting for more drop after the CPI is announced this Thursday","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914770604","repostId":"2274458895","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2274458895","pubTimestamp":1665355533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274458895?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 06:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CPI Sets the Stage for Fed's November Hike, Banks Report for Q3: What to Know This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274458895","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"An already strained U.S. stock market will be further challenged in the week ahead as the government publishes a key inflation report and megabanks kick off what’slikely to be a murky earnings season.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>An already strained U.S. stock market will be further challenged in the week ahead as the government publishes a key inflation report and megabanks kick off what’s likely to be a murky earnings season.</p><p>The highly-awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) takes top billing in coming days, with third-quarter financials from the country’s largest banks – JPMorgan (JPM), Citi (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) – following suit in the line of importance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f0f37bbff5251cf5a672004561faeef\" tg-width=\"2044\" tg-height=\"1448\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>A fresh CPI reading on Thursday is expected to dictate how much more aggressive the Federal Reserve will get with its interest rate hiking plans, which are already the most combative in decades. The consequential economic release will hold even greater significance after the Labor Department’s September jobs report on Friday suggested officials have further room for increases.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/541f2357db95a28c89672d947882d8dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>JPMorgan President and CEO Jamie Dimon testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 22, 2022. (REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein)</span></p><p>The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs last month, a moderation from the prior print but still a robust hiring figure, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The weaker-than-expected decline in payroll gains dashed investor hopes that FOMC members might shift away from monetary tightening sooner than anticipated.</p><p>That reality sent stocks spiraling on Friday. The S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) plunged 2.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 630 points, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way down at a decline of 3.8%. The major averages managed to end higher for the week after three straight down weeks after retaining some gains from a transient rally the first two trading days of October.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d03327c522e4f944485e66952e5c24a2\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“Persistent strength in hiring and a drop in the unemployment rate, in our view, mean the Fed is unlikely to pivot in the direction of a slower pace of rate hikes until it has more clear evidence that employment growth is slowing,” analysts at Bank of America said in a note on Friday, adding that the institution expects a fourth 75-basis-point rate increase in November.</p><p>And this week’s inflation reading could corroborate such a move next month. According to Bloomberg forecasts, the headline consumer price index for September is expected to show a slight moderation on a year-over-year figure to 8.1% from 8.3% in August, but an increase to 0.2% from 0.1% over the month.</p><p>All eyes will be on the “core” component of the report, which strips out the volatile food and energy categories. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project core CPI rose to 6.5% from 6.3% over the year but moderated to 0.4% monthly from 0.6% in August.</p><p>Marginal fluctuations in the data have not been reassuring enough to Federal Reserve members that they can step away from intervening any time soon. Speaking at an event in New York last week, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly called inflation a “corrosive disease,”and a “toxin that erodes the real purchasing power of people.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a183e6937eab492d9c263c10c4650349\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>A sign for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors is seen at the entrance to the William McChesney Martin Jr. building ahead of a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell on interest rate policy, in Washington, U.S., September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque</span></p><p>Elsewhere in economic releases, investors will also get a gauge of how quickly prices are rising at the wholesale level with the producer price index, or PPI, which measures the change in the prices paid to U.S. producers of goods and services; a reading on how consumer spending is faring amid persistent inflation and slowing economic conditions with the government’s retail sales report; and a consumer sentiment check from the University of Michigan closely watched survey.</p><p>Meanwhile, bank earnings will set the stage for a third-quarter earnings season expected to be ridden with economic warnings from corporate executives about the state of their businesses, slashed earnings per share estimates across Wall Street, and generally milder results as price and rate pressures weighed on companies in the recent three-month period.</p><p>Results from JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley are all on tap for the coming week and will be followed by Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) the following week.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5088c955861b1fd864d4c07b311fec8a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Chief executives of the country&#39;s largest banks are sworn-in at the start of a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing on &#34;Annual Oversight of the Nation&#39;s Largest Banks&#34;, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein</span></p><p>Banks typically benefit from central bank policy tightening, with higher interest rates boosting their net interest income (the bank’s earnings on its lending activities and interest it pays to depositors) and net interest margins (calculated by dividing net interest income by the average income earned from interest-producing assets.) However, challenging market conditions that have dealt a blow to dealmaking activity and general macroeconomic uncertainty are poised to offset higher net interest income.</p><p>Analysts at Bank of America project earnings growth to slow across banks and brokers to 2.0% year-over-year in the third quarter from 5.9% in the second and 7.7% in the third, per bottom-up consensus estimates, per a recent note.</p><p>However, that drop pales in comparison to expectations for sectors outside of financials — with the exception of the energy sector — according to BofA. Earnings growth in those areas “is expected to dip well into the negative territory,” the bank warned in a note, with expectations for growth of -4.2% year-over-year in the third quarter, down from -1.3% in the second quarter.</p><p>—</p><p><b>Economic Calendar</b></p><p><b>Monday:</b> <i>No notable reports scheduled for release.</i></p><p><b>Tuesday:</b> <b><i>NFIB Small Business Optimism</i></b>, September (91.8 expected, 91.8 during prior month); <b><i>Monthly Budget Statement</i></b>, September (-$219.6 billion)</p><p><b>Wednesday</b>: <b><i>MBA Mortgage Applications</i></b>, week ended Oct. 7 (-14.2% during prior week); <b><i>PPI excluding food and energy</i></b>, year-over-year, September (7.3% expected, 7.3% during prior month); <b><i>PPI final demand</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, -0.1% during prior month);<b><i>PPI excluding food and energy</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.3% expected, 0.4% during prior month); <b><i>PPI excluding food, energy, and trade</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.2% during prior month); <b><i>PPI final demand</i></b>, year-over-year, September (8.4% expected, 8.7% during prior month); <b><i>PPI excluding food, energy, and trade</i></b>, year-over-year, September (5.6% during prior month); <b><i>FOMC Meeting Minutes</i></b>, September 21</p><p><b>Thursday:</b> <b><i>Consumer Price Index</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.1% during prior month); <b><i>CPI excluding food and energy</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.4% expected, 0.6% during prior month); <b><i>Consumer Price Index</i></b>, year-over-year, September (8.1% expected, 8.3% during prior month); <b><i>CPI excluding food and energy</i></b>, year-over-year, September (6.5% expected, 6.3% during prior month); <b><i>CPI Index NSA</i></b>, September (296.417 expected, 296.171 during prior month); <b><i>CPI Core Index SA</i></b>, September (296.950 during prior month); <b><i>Initial jobless claims</i></b>, week ended Oct. 8 (225,000 expected, 219,000 during prior week); <b><i>Continuing claims</i></b>, week ended Oct.1 (1.361 during prior week); <b><i>Real Average Weekly Earnings</i></b>, year-over-year, September (-3.4% during prior month)</p><p><b>Friday:</b><b><i>Retail Sales Advance</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.3% during prior month); <b><i>Retail Sales excluding autos</i></b>, month-over-month, September (-0.1% expected, -0.3% during prior month); <b><i>Retail Sales excluding autos and gas</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.3% during prior month); <b><i>Retail Sales Control Group</i></b>, September (0.0% during prior month); <b><i>Import Price Index</i></b>, month-over-month, September (-1.1% expected, -1.0% during prior month); <b><i>Import Price Index excluding petroleum</i></b>, month-over-month, September (-0.2% during prior month);<b><i>Import Price Index</i></b>, year-over-year, September (7.8% during prior month); <b><i>Export Price Index</i></b>, month-over-month, September (-1.2% expected, -1.6% during prior month); <b><i>Export Price Index</i></b>, year-over-year, September (10.8% during prior month); <b><i>Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey</i></b>; <b><i>Business Inventories</i></b>, August (0.9% expected, 0.6% during prior reading); <b><i>University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment</i></b>, October preliminary (58.8 expected, 58.6 during prior month)</p><p>—</p><p><b>Earnings Calendar</b></p><p><b>Monday:</b> <i>No notable reports scheduled for release.</i></p><p><b>Tuesday:</b> <b><i>AZZ</i></b>(AZZ), <b><i>Pinnacle Financial Partners</i></b>(PNFP)</p><p><b>Wednesday:</b> <b><i>PepsiCo</i></b>(PEP), <b><i>Duck Creek Technologies</i></b>(DCT)</p><p><b>Thursday:</b> <b><i>BlackRock</i></b>(BLK), <b><i>Delta Air Lines</i></b>(DAL), <b><i>Progressive</i></b>(PGR), <b><i>Walgreens Boots Alliance</i></b>(WBA), <b><i>Commercial Metals</i></b>(CMC), <b><i>Taiwan Semiconductor</i></b>(TSM)</p><p><b>Friday:</b> <b><i>JPMorgan</i></b>(JPM), <b><i>Citigroup</i></b>(C), <b><i>Morgan Stanley</i></b>(MS), <b><i>PNC</i></b>(PNC), <b><i>U.S. Bancorp</i></b>(USB), <b><i>UnitedHealth</i></b>(UNH), <b><i>Wells Fargo</i></b>(WFC)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab39c81b03db8f153d4fd3ab9b19d463\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI Sets the Stage for Fed's November Hike, Banks Report for Q3: What to Know This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI Sets the Stage for Fed's November Hike, Banks Report for Q3: What to Know This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-10 06:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-week-ahead-september-cpi-bank-earnings-195249849.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>An already strained U.S. stock market will be further challenged in the week ahead as the government publishes a key inflation report and megabanks kick off what’s likely to be a murky earnings season...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-week-ahead-september-cpi-bank-earnings-195249849.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PNC":"PNC金融","UNH":"联合健康","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","DAL":"达美航空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","C":"花旗","BLK":"贝莱德","TSM":"台积电","WFC":"富国银行",".DJI":"道琼斯","PEP":"百事可乐","JPM":"摩根大通","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-week-ahead-september-cpi-bank-earnings-195249849.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274458895","content_text":"An already strained U.S. stock market will be further challenged in the week ahead as the government publishes a key inflation report and megabanks kick off what’s likely to be a murky earnings season.The highly-awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) takes top billing in coming days, with third-quarter financials from the country’s largest banks – JPMorgan (JPM), Citi (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) – following suit in the line of importance.A fresh CPI reading on Thursday is expected to dictate how much more aggressive the Federal Reserve will get with its interest rate hiking plans, which are already the most combative in decades. The consequential economic release will hold even greater significance after the Labor Department’s September jobs report on Friday suggested officials have further room for increases.JPMorgan President and CEO Jamie Dimon testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 22, 2022. (REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein)The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs last month, a moderation from the prior print but still a robust hiring figure, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The weaker-than-expected decline in payroll gains dashed investor hopes that FOMC members might shift away from monetary tightening sooner than anticipated.That reality sent stocks spiraling on Friday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) plunged 2.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 630 points, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way down at a decline of 3.8%. The major averages managed to end higher for the week after three straight down weeks after retaining some gains from a transient rally the first two trading days of October.“Persistent strength in hiring and a drop in the unemployment rate, in our view, mean the Fed is unlikely to pivot in the direction of a slower pace of rate hikes until it has more clear evidence that employment growth is slowing,” analysts at Bank of America said in a note on Friday, adding that the institution expects a fourth 75-basis-point rate increase in November.And this week’s inflation reading could corroborate such a move next month. According to Bloomberg forecasts, the headline consumer price index for September is expected to show a slight moderation on a year-over-year figure to 8.1% from 8.3% in August, but an increase to 0.2% from 0.1% over the month.All eyes will be on the “core” component of the report, which strips out the volatile food and energy categories. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project core CPI rose to 6.5% from 6.3% over the year but moderated to 0.4% monthly from 0.6% in August.Marginal fluctuations in the data have not been reassuring enough to Federal Reserve members that they can step away from intervening any time soon. Speaking at an event in New York last week, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly called inflation a “corrosive disease,”and a “toxin that erodes the real purchasing power of people.”A sign for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors is seen at the entrance to the William McChesney Martin Jr. building ahead of a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell on interest rate policy, in Washington, U.S., September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Kevin LamarqueElsewhere in economic releases, investors will also get a gauge of how quickly prices are rising at the wholesale level with the producer price index, or PPI, which measures the change in the prices paid to U.S. producers of goods and services; a reading on how consumer spending is faring amid persistent inflation and slowing economic conditions with the government’s retail sales report; and a consumer sentiment check from the University of Michigan closely watched survey.Meanwhile, bank earnings will set the stage for a third-quarter earnings season expected to be ridden with economic warnings from corporate executives about the state of their businesses, slashed earnings per share estimates across Wall Street, and generally milder results as price and rate pressures weighed on companies in the recent three-month period.Results from JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley are all on tap for the coming week and will be followed by Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) the following week.Chief executives of the country's largest banks are sworn-in at the start of a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing on \"Annual Oversight of the Nation's Largest Banks\", on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Evelyn HocksteinBanks typically benefit from central bank policy tightening, with higher interest rates boosting their net interest income (the bank’s earnings on its lending activities and interest it pays to depositors) and net interest margins (calculated by dividing net interest income by the average income earned from interest-producing assets.) However, challenging market conditions that have dealt a blow to dealmaking activity and general macroeconomic uncertainty are poised to offset higher net interest income.Analysts at Bank of America project earnings growth to slow across banks and brokers to 2.0% year-over-year in the third quarter from 5.9% in the second and 7.7% in the third, per bottom-up consensus estimates, per a recent note.However, that drop pales in comparison to expectations for sectors outside of financials — with the exception of the energy sector — according to BofA. Earnings growth in those areas “is expected to dip well into the negative territory,” the bank warned in a note, with expectations for growth of -4.2% year-over-year in the third quarter, down from -1.3% in the second quarter.—Economic CalendarMonday: No notable reports scheduled for release.Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, September (91.8 expected, 91.8 during prior month); Monthly Budget Statement, September (-$219.6 billion)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Oct. 7 (-14.2% during prior week); PPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, September (7.3% expected, 7.3% during prior month); PPI final demand, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, -0.1% during prior month);PPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, September (0.3% expected, 0.4% during prior month); PPI excluding food, energy, and trade, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.2% during prior month); PPI final demand, year-over-year, September (8.4% expected, 8.7% during prior month); PPI excluding food, energy, and trade, year-over-year, September (5.6% during prior month); FOMC Meeting Minutes, September 21Thursday: Consumer Price Index, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.1% during prior month); CPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, September (0.4% expected, 0.6% during prior month); Consumer Price Index, year-over-year, September (8.1% expected, 8.3% during prior month); CPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, September (6.5% expected, 6.3% during prior month); CPI Index NSA, September (296.417 expected, 296.171 during prior month); CPI Core Index SA, September (296.950 during prior month); Initial jobless claims, week ended Oct. 8 (225,000 expected, 219,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Oct.1 (1.361 during prior week); Real Average Weekly Earnings, year-over-year, September (-3.4% during prior month)Friday:Retail Sales Advance, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.3% during prior month); Retail Sales excluding autos, month-over-month, September (-0.1% expected, -0.3% during prior month); Retail Sales excluding autos and gas, month-over-month, September (0.3% during prior month); Retail Sales Control Group, September (0.0% during prior month); Import Price Index, month-over-month, September (-1.1% expected, -1.0% during prior month); Import Price Index excluding petroleum, month-over-month, September (-0.2% during prior month);Import Price Index, year-over-year, September (7.8% during prior month); Export Price Index, month-over-month, September (-1.2% expected, -1.6% during prior month); Export Price Index, year-over-year, September (10.8% during prior month); Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey; Business Inventories, August (0.9% expected, 0.6% during prior reading); University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, October preliminary (58.8 expected, 58.6 during prior month)—Earnings CalendarMonday: No notable reports scheduled for release.Tuesday: AZZ(AZZ), Pinnacle Financial Partners(PNFP)Wednesday: PepsiCo(PEP), Duck Creek Technologies(DCT)Thursday: BlackRock(BLK), Delta Air Lines(DAL), Progressive(PGR), Walgreens Boots Alliance(WBA), Commercial Metals(CMC), Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM)Friday: JPMorgan(JPM), Citigroup(C), Morgan Stanley(MS), PNC(PNC), U.S. Bancorp(USB), UnitedHealth(UNH), Wells Fargo(WFC)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915243537,"gmtCreate":1665058204029,"gmtModify":1676537550393,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Short term volatility but long term should be a good start to DCA to build positions for the next 5 -10 yrs","listText":"Short term volatility but long term should be a good start to DCA to build positions for the next 5 -10 yrs","text":"Short term volatility but long term should be a good start to DCA to build positions for the next 5 -10 yrs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915243537","repostId":"2273482308","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912766212,"gmtCreate":1664913169336,"gmtModify":1676537526544,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Short rally to take some small profits","listText":"Short rally to take some small profits","text":"Short rally to take some small profits","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912766212","repostId":"1166613217","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061399285,"gmtCreate":1651561748964,"gmtModify":1676534927596,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keeping my full position&nbsp;","listText":"Keeping my full position&nbsp;","text":"Keeping my full position","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061399285","repostId":"2232742796","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2232742796","pubTimestamp":1651547153,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2232742796?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-03 11:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2232742796","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>For investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.</li><li>He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then the position was reduced by about a half according to the recent Daily Journal&#39;s 13F.</li><li>To add to the ambiguity, he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation.</li><li>This article reengineers Munger’s thought process to gain insights into where Alibaba is headed next.</li><li>BABA is another textbook illustration of Munger’s wisdom of buying good businesses on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed its position.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f665544ee7146e737beb7abd9b9596c\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Eric Francis/Getty Images News</span></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>Many investors in Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) probably included Charlie Munger’s actions as part of their investment decision. Indeed, the legendary billionaire doubled down on his BABA position twice in 2021 amid market concerns, and both times created a news splash and large stock price movements. But the most recent filing from the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) reported that his BABA position was reduced by about a half as you can see from the chart below. To add to the ambiguity, he has also announced that he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation, a position held since 1977. Going forward, Munger will remain a director and keep being involved in its securities portfolio.</p><p>This article is my attempt to interpret Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. As his role at DJCO winds down, we can no longer rely on his actions as guidance in our BABA decisions and we will have to rely on our own judgment more. By reengineering Munger’s thoughts, we can gain insights for ourselves not only on BABA but also on other investment opportunities.</p><p>You will see next that my view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 best illustrates Munger’s wisdom of buying good business on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9660e48240f12c06602d9d01717c9f9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: dataroma.com</span></p><p><b>Munger and BABA</b></p><p>The following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancelation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3 and then again in 2021 Q4.</p><p>There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. As mentioned above, the market reacted too quickly based on perception (based on the information available at that time). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth, as elaborated in the next section immediately below.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9aab2ae2ddd5b74d6ef33ed6ea3682\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Yahoo Finance and Author</span></p><p><b>BABA’s core business remains intact</b></p><p>Firstly, my view is that many of the ongoing uncertainties as shown above (the Russian-Ukraine war, COVID interruptions, and the delisting fear) are only temporary and have little long-term relevance to BABA&#39;s existing core retail business. Secondly, the China government has expressed commitment to stabilizing the market and stimulating the economy. And key players like BABA will directly benefit from the government support, as reflected in the large share price rallies shortly after such announcements.</p><p>Under the above background, now let&#39;s look at BABA’s core retail business. BABA reported a total of 1.28 billion Annual Active Consumers Globally for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021. It is an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million (2.6%) and 16 million (about 5%), respectively. Such growth rates may be lower than its faster pace in the past. However, they are still very healthy growth rates at BABA’s scale. And again, the market overaction has compressed its valuation so much so that it is now viewed as a terminally cheap and stagnating business. But the reality is the opposite.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09f58f155de8d774911dedd2de0f281\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>BABA Earnings report</span></p><p>Looking forward, I see the business well-positioned for future growth and the fear overblown for a few key considerations. As aforementioned, upon rational examination, many recent developments are not only temporary but also irrelevant or even positive for BABA. For example, in Sept 2021, BABA made a pledge of 100 billion RMB (or about $15.5B or $3.1B per year) to the Chinese common prosperity fund. To me, this is a positive sign because it shows that the Chinese government is working out a path forward for BABA and hints at what a “new norm” could be for BABA. And also the recent separation of its China retail and international retail is also a positive development in my view. it compartmentalized the regulatory complications and risks for its core business. BABA is now well-positioned to capture the international market. Cainiao continues to expand its global infrastructure by strengthening its end-to-end logistics capabilities, including ehubs, line-haul, sorting centers, and last-mile network.</p><p><b>BABA’s other high-growth opportunities</b></p><p>Besides its core bread-and-butter business, BABA is also well-positioned to capitalize on its investments in other high-growth and high-margin opportunities both domestically and internationally. It is in a key strategic position to capitalize on its local and cross-border supply and global infrastructure in many key areas.</p><p>Its cloud segment is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the highlights. The cloud market in China is projected to grow from RMB 0.2 Trillion in 2020 to RMB 1.0 Trillion in 2025, a 5x growth in 5 years. BABA’s cloud computing revenue grew by 50% year-on-year in its last fiscal year (which ended on 31 March 2021) despite losing a major customer in the March quarter. Since then, its cloud segment grew by another 20% year-over-year to RMB19.5B million (US$3.1B million) in the most recent quarter. At the same time, its cloud revenue is also becoming more diversified. The revenue sources used to be dominated by the internet industry (about 60%). As of the last quarter, the share of the revenue from the internet industry has decreased to about 48%. The solid 20% year-over-year growth reflected robust growth from other key sectors such as the financial and telecommunication industries.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3115a0e3831d1e821d9bf124fb342f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>BABA earnings report</span></p><p><b>Valuation too cheap to ignore</b></p><p>Munger bought BABA shares on the operating table when it was valued as a terminally cheap business. The valuation is still too cheap to ignore. BABA remains deeply undervalued in terms of all the metrics, net earnings, free cash flow, and assets. As seen from the chart below, it’s current valued at about 12x FW PE. And according to consensus estimates, its valuation at the current price will be in the single-digit range starting in 2025 and at about only 6x by 2028.</p><p>At the same time, there is a large cash position on its balance sheet, making the valuation even more compressed than on the surface. Currently, about one-third of its market cap is in its current assets, and more than a half in its current assets, properties, and equity investments. With its China commerce raking in more than $90B of sales per year, the current valuation is equivalent to A) purchasing its equity at book value, B) paying for its China commerce operation at about 1.6x sales (Amazon is valued at about 3.5x sales in contrast), and C) getting all its other operations for free.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e840aa8a60cc3895b5046c5d64b48e23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><b>Conclusions and risks</b></p><p>This article attempts to reengineer Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. My view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 is another textbook illustration of his wisdom of buying good business on the operating table. And I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently. In particular,</p><ul><li>My view is that as his role at DJCO winds down, the trim does not reflect his view anymore. At this point, BABA’s core businesses remain intact and are well-positioned for many high-growth areas especially its cloud computing and CAINIAO logistic infrastructure.</li><li>Many current fears (listed below) are overblown or irrelevant to the business fundamentals in the long term. On the opposite, in the nearer term, BABA investment is further protected at this point by its large share repurchase plan and the Chinese government to stabilize the market and its economy. Its $25B share repurchase plan will shrink the share count by almost 9% at its current price. Given its current undervaluation, it will be highly accreditive to boost shareholder returns.</li></ul><p>Finally, BABA investment does involve considerable risks and is definitely not suitable for all investment styles. The key risks as I see are elaborated below.</p><ul><li>First, large price volatilities. its stock price has recently become dominated by market sentiment and disconnected from fundamentals. Its stock prices easily fluctuated 30%+ in a few days or even a single day recently in response to news and sentiments that may or may not have direct relevance to its business fundamentals.</li><li>Second, the VIE structure risk could lead to a 100% loss. The Chinese government could confiscate foreign investments in BABA if they decide foreign investments made in BABA under the VEI structure are illegal according to Chinese law.</li><li>Third, the delisting risk could also lead to a substantial loss. It led to a 20%+ loss following the next few days in the recent DiDi delisting example.</li><li>Lastly, given the above large uncertainties, potential investors may consider a long call option to limit total exposure risks. As detailed in my earlier article, I think the market’s perception of its price variation is too conservative, resulting in a mispricing of its implied volatility.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-03 11:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2232742796","content_text":"SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then the position was reduced by about a half according to the recent Daily Journal's 13F.To add to the ambiguity, he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation.This article reengineers Munger’s thought process to gain insights into where Alibaba is headed next.BABA is another textbook illustration of Munger’s wisdom of buying good businesses on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed its position.Eric Francis/Getty Images NewsThesisMany investors in Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) probably included Charlie Munger’s actions as part of their investment decision. Indeed, the legendary billionaire doubled down on his BABA position twice in 2021 amid market concerns, and both times created a news splash and large stock price movements. But the most recent filing from the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) reported that his BABA position was reduced by about a half as you can see from the chart below. To add to the ambiguity, he has also announced that he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation, a position held since 1977. Going forward, Munger will remain a director and keep being involved in its securities portfolio.This article is my attempt to interpret Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. As his role at DJCO winds down, we can no longer rely on his actions as guidance in our BABA decisions and we will have to rely on our own judgment more. By reengineering Munger’s thoughts, we can gain insights for ourselves not only on BABA but also on other investment opportunities.You will see next that my view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 best illustrates Munger’s wisdom of buying good business on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently.Source: dataroma.comMunger and BABAThe following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancelation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3 and then again in 2021 Q4.There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. As mentioned above, the market reacted too quickly based on perception (based on the information available at that time). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth, as elaborated in the next section immediately below.Yahoo Finance and AuthorBABA’s core business remains intactFirstly, my view is that many of the ongoing uncertainties as shown above (the Russian-Ukraine war, COVID interruptions, and the delisting fear) are only temporary and have little long-term relevance to BABA's existing core retail business. Secondly, the China government has expressed commitment to stabilizing the market and stimulating the economy. And key players like BABA will directly benefit from the government support, as reflected in the large share price rallies shortly after such announcements.Under the above background, now let's look at BABA’s core retail business. BABA reported a total of 1.28 billion Annual Active Consumers Globally for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021. It is an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million (2.6%) and 16 million (about 5%), respectively. Such growth rates may be lower than its faster pace in the past. However, they are still very healthy growth rates at BABA’s scale. And again, the market overaction has compressed its valuation so much so that it is now viewed as a terminally cheap and stagnating business. But the reality is the opposite.BABA Earnings reportLooking forward, I see the business well-positioned for future growth and the fear overblown for a few key considerations. As aforementioned, upon rational examination, many recent developments are not only temporary but also irrelevant or even positive for BABA. For example, in Sept 2021, BABA made a pledge of 100 billion RMB (or about $15.5B or $3.1B per year) to the Chinese common prosperity fund. To me, this is a positive sign because it shows that the Chinese government is working out a path forward for BABA and hints at what a “new norm” could be for BABA. And also the recent separation of its China retail and international retail is also a positive development in my view. it compartmentalized the regulatory complications and risks for its core business. BABA is now well-positioned to capture the international market. Cainiao continues to expand its global infrastructure by strengthening its end-to-end logistics capabilities, including ehubs, line-haul, sorting centers, and last-mile network.BABA’s other high-growth opportunitiesBesides its core bread-and-butter business, BABA is also well-positioned to capitalize on its investments in other high-growth and high-margin opportunities both domestically and internationally. It is in a key strategic position to capitalize on its local and cross-border supply and global infrastructure in many key areas.Its cloud segment is one of the highlights. The cloud market in China is projected to grow from RMB 0.2 Trillion in 2020 to RMB 1.0 Trillion in 2025, a 5x growth in 5 years. BABA’s cloud computing revenue grew by 50% year-on-year in its last fiscal year (which ended on 31 March 2021) despite losing a major customer in the March quarter. Since then, its cloud segment grew by another 20% year-over-year to RMB19.5B million (US$3.1B million) in the most recent quarter. At the same time, its cloud revenue is also becoming more diversified. The revenue sources used to be dominated by the internet industry (about 60%). As of the last quarter, the share of the revenue from the internet industry has decreased to about 48%. The solid 20% year-over-year growth reflected robust growth from other key sectors such as the financial and telecommunication industries.BABA earnings reportValuation too cheap to ignoreMunger bought BABA shares on the operating table when it was valued as a terminally cheap business. The valuation is still too cheap to ignore. BABA remains deeply undervalued in terms of all the metrics, net earnings, free cash flow, and assets. As seen from the chart below, it’s current valued at about 12x FW PE. And according to consensus estimates, its valuation at the current price will be in the single-digit range starting in 2025 and at about only 6x by 2028.At the same time, there is a large cash position on its balance sheet, making the valuation even more compressed than on the surface. Currently, about one-third of its market cap is in its current assets, and more than a half in its current assets, properties, and equity investments. With its China commerce raking in more than $90B of sales per year, the current valuation is equivalent to A) purchasing its equity at book value, B) paying for its China commerce operation at about 1.6x sales (Amazon is valued at about 3.5x sales in contrast), and C) getting all its other operations for free.Seeking AlphaConclusions and risksThis article attempts to reengineer Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. My view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 is another textbook illustration of his wisdom of buying good business on the operating table. And I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently. In particular,My view is that as his role at DJCO winds down, the trim does not reflect his view anymore. At this point, BABA’s core businesses remain intact and are well-positioned for many high-growth areas especially its cloud computing and CAINIAO logistic infrastructure.Many current fears (listed below) are overblown or irrelevant to the business fundamentals in the long term. On the opposite, in the nearer term, BABA investment is further protected at this point by its large share repurchase plan and the Chinese government to stabilize the market and its economy. Its $25B share repurchase plan will shrink the share count by almost 9% at its current price. Given its current undervaluation, it will be highly accreditive to boost shareholder returns.Finally, BABA investment does involve considerable risks and is definitely not suitable for all investment styles. The key risks as I see are elaborated below.First, large price volatilities. its stock price has recently become dominated by market sentiment and disconnected from fundamentals. Its stock prices easily fluctuated 30%+ in a few days or even a single day recently in response to news and sentiments that may or may not have direct relevance to its business fundamentals.Second, the VIE structure risk could lead to a 100% loss. The Chinese government could confiscate foreign investments in BABA if they decide foreign investments made in BABA under the VEI structure are illegal according to Chinese law.Third, the delisting risk could also lead to a substantial loss. It led to a 20%+ loss following the next few days in the recent DiDi delisting example.Lastly, given the above large uncertainties, potential investors may consider a long call option to limit total exposure risks. As detailed in my earlier article, I think the market’s perception of its price variation is too conservative, resulting in a mispricing of its implied volatility.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080428086,"gmtCreate":1649907643393,"gmtModify":1676534604741,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it's just fear","listText":"Hope it's just fear","text":"Hope it's just fear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080428086","repostId":"2227610161","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2227610161","pubTimestamp":1649904118,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227610161?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-14 10:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Group: Unjustifiably Cheap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227610161","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Investment thesisAlibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) stock price has largely bee","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Investment thesis</h2><p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) stock price has largely been news-driven and fear-driven in the past year or so. It has faced quite a few uncertainties: fines, anti-trust regulations, and so on.</p><p>Under the above background, you will see that the thesis here is really simple - the stock price has become disconnected from the business fundamentals. The stock has actually become unjustifiable cheap now according to the so-call Buffett’s 10x pretax rule. As to be detailed later, if you pay 10x pretax and bought a business that stagnates forever, you would have bought a 10% yielding bond and enjoys a 10% annualized return. And if you get a business that offers ANY growth, you will have a large chance of a double-digit return compounding for a long time.</p><p>In BABA’s case:</p><ul><li>It is currently for sale at around 7x pretax earnings when adjusted for its cash positions, and it will not stagnate forever. To the contrary, BABA stands best poised to benefit from our world’s e-commerce movement, particularly in the Asian-Pacific region, the center of the movement.</li><li>The downside is further protected by Beijing’s vows to stabilize the market and its $25B repurchase program. When Beijing announced its support pledges on Mar 16 to stabilize the market and stimulate the economy, BABA stock price rallied by almost 37% during that single day on large trading volume. Also, it just upsized the repurchase program to $25B from $15B, almost 8% of its current market cap. Such a sizable repurchase, at its current undervaluation, will be very effective and accreditive to boosting shareholder returns.</li><li>In the longer term, BABA is well poised to benefit from the world’s unstoppable shift to e-commerce. And the center of the upcoming shift will be centered in the Asia-Pacific region, where BABA is well-poised to benefit.</li></ul><p>Before we dive in, let me also make two quick clarifications:</p><ul><li>All the subsequent analyses are made based on a per ADR basis, and there are 8 ordinary shares in each BABA ADR.</li><li>All the financial data used in the rest of this article are either taken from the most recent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALU\">Value Line</a> reports or from Seeking Alpha.</li></ul><h2>Buffett&#39;s 10x Pretax Rule</h2><p>If you&#39;re a devout Buffett cultist like this author, you must have noticed or heard that the grandmaster paid ~10x pretax earnings for many of his largest and best deals. The list is a really long <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, ranging from Coca-Cola (KO), American Express (AXP), Wells Fargo (WFC), Walmart (WFC), Burlington Northern, and of course the more recent AAPL purchase.</p><p>As detailed in my other earlier writings, it is not a coincidence that most of his best and largest investment success is from buying businesses at 10x pretax earnings, because:</p><blockquote><ul><li><i>Buying an average business that stagnates forever at 10x pretax would already provide a 10% pretax earnings yield, directly comparable to a 10% yield bond.</i></li><li><i>In case you get to buy an above-average business (like BABA here) at 10x pretax, then any growth would be a bonus on top of the 10% yield above, leading to a double-digit return.</i></li></ul></blockquote><p>As seen from the chart below, the market now presents BABA as such an opportunity. The following chart shows the price history of BABA and its 10x pretax earnings plus its cash position (since it has a sizable cash position). Pretax earnings are also referred to as &#34;EBT,&#34; Earnings Before Taxes, in this article.</p><p>As seen, for a business like BABA, the price should be high above 10x EBT, as it has been in the past. But during the recent market overaction, the price now is actually close to the 7x EBT as seen (again correctly for cash)!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bfc77bfc14d10e64ed3130dae7ce72c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p>So, in this case, even if BABA stagnates forever, by paying 7x pretax, the investment would already provide a 14% pretax earnings yield, directly comparable to a 14% yield bond. And to be seen next, BABA has an excellent prospect to grow also.</p><p>As also detailed in my earlier writings, a strong warning is in order here:</p><blockquote><ul><li><i>I am NOT suggesting you go out and start buying every/any stock that is below 10x EBT. As investors, we face many risks. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> of the major risks are A) quality risk or value trap, i.e., paying a bargain price for something of horrible quality, and B) valuation risk, i.e., paying too much for something of superb quality. The 10x pretax rule is mainly to avoid the type B risk AFTER the type A risk has been eliminated already.</i></li><li><i>Then how do we eliminate type A risks? I look for three things primarily. First, the business should have not an existential issue in the long run. However, in the end, this is largely a subjective judgment. Second, the business should have no existential issue in the short run either. This can be quite reliably and objectively evaluated based on the cash flow and debt coverage. And finally, the business should have a decent chance to grow its earnings in the long term (and estimate the so-call perpetual growth rate). This will be a plus. </i></li></ul></blockquote><p>So with this framework, let’s examine BABA more closely.</p><h2>BABA: does it have any existential issue?</h2><p>I really do not see any existential issue for BABA either in the short run or the long run. I will just be brief and go through my thought process here and then move on to focus on the growth perspective.</p><p>Existential issues, in the long run, are largely subjective judgments. If some of us even entertain the possibility that BABA would have trouble surviving, the root of our concern is probably the Chinese government. My judgment is that the Chinese government will not only not let BABA fall, but will also work with BABA to make sure it continues to prosper. I have traveled extensively in China and read extensively about its recent history. The current regulatory shock waves are nothing new historically. They&#39;ve happened before (even at a larger scale and with stronger intensity) and will happen again most likely. As for BABA, it&#39;s reached a status of too big to fail, and also at the same time, too good to fail. It is in the Chinese government&#39;s best interest to keep it alive and thrive - which leads me to the next point.</p><p>And I interpret the following recent developments as supporting evidence to my above view:</p><ul><li>I view the announcement back in Sept 2021, that BABA will invest RMB100 billion (about $15.5B) in the Chinese Common Prosperity fund as a key positive step. To me, this announcement shows convincingly that a path forward is being worked out for BABA - and it is a peaceful path that is nothing like what the market has feared.</li><li>Then, in 2021, Charlie Munger doubled his position twice, which also seems to support my above view. With Munger&#39;s long track record as a disciplined and long-term investor, he must have no doubt at all about the long-term staying power of BABA.</li><li>Finally, more recently, on March 16 this year, Beijing announced its support pledges to stabilize the market and stimulate the economy. BABA stock price rallied by almost 37% during that single day on large trading volumes. Furthermore, the progress made by the Chinese and U.S. on their audit dispute provides another potential catalyst. To me, it is a no brainer that both sides recognize effective and sustainable cooperation is in the best interests of the capital markets of both countries and also global investors.</li></ul><p>Short-term existential issues are a lot easier. This can be quite reliably and objectively evaluated based on the cash flow and debt coverage. And BABA certainly does not have any of these issues at all.</p><p>Just take a look at the following snapshot of its capital allocations in the recent year. The picture is really simple here: BABA earns a load of cash organically from its operations – even considering its fines, commitment to the common prosperity fund, and potential tax rate raises. And it does not need to spend much. Just take a look at its finances in recent years. It generates more than $30B of operating income per year in recent years. BABA is effective debt-free (its debt interest expenses are merely $0.5B).</p><p>BABA does not pay a dividend. And its CapEx is only about $6.4B, about 20% of its operating income. When we expand our horizon a bit wider and examine its capital allocation over the past a few years, the picture does not change that much, as shown in the next chart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a637c746ef348d145d928b0e224e6d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</p><h2>BABA: what is its growth potential?</h2><p>It is an unstopped trend that our world is moving toward e-commerce. Even though many of us are already impressed by the success of e-commerce giants like BABA and Amazon, the movement toward e-commerce has just actually gotten started and the bulk of the growth is yet to come.</p><p>As you can see from the following chart, the global e-commerce penetration has been in steady and rapid increase. The e-commerce penetration has almost doubled from its 10.5% level in 2016 to the current level of 20.2% in merely 4 years, a CAGR of nearly 19%.</p><p>However, the current e-commerce rate is still ONLY at about 20%. Meaning 80% of the commerce is still currently conducted off-line. Global retail e-commerce sales have reached $4.2 trillion in 2020. And they are projected to almost double by 2026, reaching $7.4 trillion of revenues to the retail e-commerce business. The e-commerce movement is just getting started and the bulk of the growth opportunity is yet to come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e271c687c95ab08e5cf7556e5b89eff6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Digital Commerce 360</p><p>And the center of the remaining movement will be in the Asia-Pacific region, where BABA is well-poised to benefit. In a nutshell, even by as early as 2023 – in about 2 years time, that is - retail e-commerce sales in Asia-Pacific are projected to be greater than the rest of the world combined.</p><p>As shown in the next chart below, the total retail e-commerce in the Asia-Pacific region should reach $1.4 trillion US dollars by 2023. In contrast, the total retail e-commerce by the rest of the world would be about $1.3 trillion only. In relative terms, by 2023, the Western continents will contribute 16% of the total B2B e-commerce volume, while the remaining 84% would come from the non-Western world.</p><p>The secular trends driving such distribution include: (1) the dominant portion of the world population residing in the Asia-Pacific regions; (2) the rapid urbanization and technological advancements in those regions; (3) more than 85% of new middle-class growth residing in the Asian-Pacific region; and (4) lastly, the incentive from the government and also the initiatives from the private sector (such as in China and Indian) to accelerate the transition to e-commerce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1486d07c6db80e8162346142a6238b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Shopify.</p><h2>A reality check shows asymmetric return/risk profiles</h2><p>Finally, what I always like to do is a reality check as shown in the chart below. It is essentially a back of the envelope calculation to estimate what is the growth rate and valuation required to deliver a target ROI over the next few years, say, 5 or 10 years. And see if such growth rate and valuation can pass a common-sense test.</p><p>As an example to provide a tutorial to read this chart, if we require a 10% annual ROI, represented by the black horizontal line (10% annual return translates to 160% total return in 10 years because 1.1^10=260%), the growth rate will have to be about exactly 10% if the valuation ratio does not change from its current level (i.e., 7x EBT) – something we all know already. And if the valuation contracts to 5x EBT as shown by the green line, the growth rate would have to be about 13.5% to deliver the required 10% ROI.</p><p>With the above background, we can see that the current valuation easily passes the reality check. In particular, investment here enjoys a large margin of safety from several factors:</p><p>1. A large gap between market perception and fundamentals. As seen, under the current valuation, we are very likely to enjoy double-digit returns even if growth is not double-digit. To put things into perspective, BABA&#39;s recent “slowed” growth rate is still 20%+. And the secular trend can easily support a double-digit e-commerce growth in the next decade.</p><p>2. A very compressed valuation. If you pay 10x pretax and bought a business that stagnates forever, you would have bought a 10% yielding bond already. At BABA’s current 7x pretax valuation, even when growth slows all the way to 6% AND valuation further contracts (say to 5x EBT, the lowest point historically), the investment still won’t lose money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a236fffc1bad448c896bef258eff2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author.</p><h2>Risks</h2><p>First, there&#39;s always the risk that the Chinese government could confiscate foreign investments in BABA if they decide those investments under the VIE structure are illegal. This is very unlikely to me for so many reasons. </p><p>Second, the ongoing Chinese-U.S. negotiations on the audit disputes still face uncertain outcomes. I am optimistic that eventually an agreement will be reached; however, the path may be long and tortuous. However, in case it fails, there is a chance that BABA could be delisted from the US stock market. Delisting Chinese stocks has just happened recently (the DIDI case, for example). Although, even if BABA stock indeed ended up delisted, that would not necessarily lead to a total loss of capital (again, see the DIDI case as an example).</p><h2>Conclusion and final thoughts</h2><p>The recent market overreaction presents an opportunity to buy a great company that is having temporary trouble while it is still on the operating table – as Buffett and Munger have done so masterfully in the past. The thesis of this article is, therefore, really simple – companies like BABA should never be priced below 10x EBT as it is now.</p><p>The current pricing is such that BABA is valued significantly below 10x pretax earnings. And as a result,</p><ul><li>Even buying an average business that stagnates forever at such a valuation would already provide a doubt-digit return.</li><li>Yet, BABA is anything but an average business that will stagnate forever. BABA stands best poised to benefit from the world’s movement towards e-commerce and especially the Asian-Pacific momentum. To put things into perspective, BABA&#39;s recent “slowed” growth rate is still 20%+ YoY. And the global secular trend, especially in the Asian Pacific region, can easily support a double-digit e-commerce growth in the next decade.</li><li>The margin of safety is so thick here that even when growth slows all the way to 6% AND valuation further contracts to 5x EBT (the lowest level historically), the investment would still make a small profit and won’t lose money.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Group: Unjustifiably Cheap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Group: Unjustifiably Cheap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-14 10:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501278-alibaba-group-unjustifiably-cheap><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investment thesisAlibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) stock price has largely been news-driven and fear-driven in the past year or so. It has faced quite a few uncertainties: fines,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501278-alibaba-group-unjustifiably-cheap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","WFC":"富国银行","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4177":"软饮料","BK4531":"中概回港概念","KO":"可口可乐","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4558":"双十一","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4502":"阿里概念","BABAF":"Alibaba Group Holding Limited","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","AXP":"美国运通","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4565":"NFT概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501278-alibaba-group-unjustifiably-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2227610161","content_text":"Investment thesisAlibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) stock price has largely been news-driven and fear-driven in the past year or so. It has faced quite a few uncertainties: fines, anti-trust regulations, and so on.Under the above background, you will see that the thesis here is really simple - the stock price has become disconnected from the business fundamentals. The stock has actually become unjustifiable cheap now according to the so-call Buffett’s 10x pretax rule. As to be detailed later, if you pay 10x pretax and bought a business that stagnates forever, you would have bought a 10% yielding bond and enjoys a 10% annualized return. And if you get a business that offers ANY growth, you will have a large chance of a double-digit return compounding for a long time.In BABA’s case:It is currently for sale at around 7x pretax earnings when adjusted for its cash positions, and it will not stagnate forever. To the contrary, BABA stands best poised to benefit from our world’s e-commerce movement, particularly in the Asian-Pacific region, the center of the movement.The downside is further protected by Beijing’s vows to stabilize the market and its $25B repurchase program. When Beijing announced its support pledges on Mar 16 to stabilize the market and stimulate the economy, BABA stock price rallied by almost 37% during that single day on large trading volume. Also, it just upsized the repurchase program to $25B from $15B, almost 8% of its current market cap. Such a sizable repurchase, at its current undervaluation, will be very effective and accreditive to boosting shareholder returns.In the longer term, BABA is well poised to benefit from the world’s unstoppable shift to e-commerce. And the center of the upcoming shift will be centered in the Asia-Pacific region, where BABA is well-poised to benefit.Before we dive in, let me also make two quick clarifications:All the subsequent analyses are made based on a per ADR basis, and there are 8 ordinary shares in each BABA ADR.All the financial data used in the rest of this article are either taken from the most recent Value Line reports or from Seeking Alpha.Buffett's 10x Pretax RuleIf you're a devout Buffett cultist like this author, you must have noticed or heard that the grandmaster paid ~10x pretax earnings for many of his largest and best deals. The list is a really long one, ranging from Coca-Cola (KO), American Express (AXP), Wells Fargo (WFC), Walmart (WFC), Burlington Northern, and of course the more recent AAPL purchase.As detailed in my other earlier writings, it is not a coincidence that most of his best and largest investment success is from buying businesses at 10x pretax earnings, because:Buying an average business that stagnates forever at 10x pretax would already provide a 10% pretax earnings yield, directly comparable to a 10% yield bond.In case you get to buy an above-average business (like BABA here) at 10x pretax, then any growth would be a bonus on top of the 10% yield above, leading to a double-digit return.As seen from the chart below, the market now presents BABA as such an opportunity. The following chart shows the price history of BABA and its 10x pretax earnings plus its cash position (since it has a sizable cash position). Pretax earnings are also referred to as \"EBT,\" Earnings Before Taxes, in this article.As seen, for a business like BABA, the price should be high above 10x EBT, as it has been in the past. But during the recent market overaction, the price now is actually close to the 7x EBT as seen (again correctly for cash)!Source: author based on Seeking Alpha dataSo, in this case, even if BABA stagnates forever, by paying 7x pretax, the investment would already provide a 14% pretax earnings yield, directly comparable to a 14% yield bond. And to be seen next, BABA has an excellent prospect to grow also.As also detailed in my earlier writings, a strong warning is in order here:I am NOT suggesting you go out and start buying every/any stock that is below 10x EBT. As investors, we face many risks. Two of the major risks are A) quality risk or value trap, i.e., paying a bargain price for something of horrible quality, and B) valuation risk, i.e., paying too much for something of superb quality. The 10x pretax rule is mainly to avoid the type B risk AFTER the type A risk has been eliminated already.Then how do we eliminate type A risks? I look for three things primarily. First, the business should have not an existential issue in the long run. However, in the end, this is largely a subjective judgment. Second, the business should have no existential issue in the short run either. This can be quite reliably and objectively evaluated based on the cash flow and debt coverage. And finally, the business should have a decent chance to grow its earnings in the long term (and estimate the so-call perpetual growth rate). This will be a plus. So with this framework, let’s examine BABA more closely.BABA: does it have any existential issue?I really do not see any existential issue for BABA either in the short run or the long run. I will just be brief and go through my thought process here and then move on to focus on the growth perspective.Existential issues, in the long run, are largely subjective judgments. If some of us even entertain the possibility that BABA would have trouble surviving, the root of our concern is probably the Chinese government. My judgment is that the Chinese government will not only not let BABA fall, but will also work with BABA to make sure it continues to prosper. I have traveled extensively in China and read extensively about its recent history. The current regulatory shock waves are nothing new historically. They've happened before (even at a larger scale and with stronger intensity) and will happen again most likely. As for BABA, it's reached a status of too big to fail, and also at the same time, too good to fail. It is in the Chinese government's best interest to keep it alive and thrive - which leads me to the next point.And I interpret the following recent developments as supporting evidence to my above view:I view the announcement back in Sept 2021, that BABA will invest RMB100 billion (about $15.5B) in the Chinese Common Prosperity fund as a key positive step. To me, this announcement shows convincingly that a path forward is being worked out for BABA - and it is a peaceful path that is nothing like what the market has feared.Then, in 2021, Charlie Munger doubled his position twice, which also seems to support my above view. With Munger's long track record as a disciplined and long-term investor, he must have no doubt at all about the long-term staying power of BABA.Finally, more recently, on March 16 this year, Beijing announced its support pledges to stabilize the market and stimulate the economy. BABA stock price rallied by almost 37% during that single day on large trading volumes. Furthermore, the progress made by the Chinese and U.S. on their audit dispute provides another potential catalyst. To me, it is a no brainer that both sides recognize effective and sustainable cooperation is in the best interests of the capital markets of both countries and also global investors.Short-term existential issues are a lot easier. This can be quite reliably and objectively evaluated based on the cash flow and debt coverage. And BABA certainly does not have any of these issues at all.Just take a look at the following snapshot of its capital allocations in the recent year. The picture is really simple here: BABA earns a load of cash organically from its operations – even considering its fines, commitment to the common prosperity fund, and potential tax rate raises. And it does not need to spend much. Just take a look at its finances in recent years. It generates more than $30B of operating income per year in recent years. BABA is effective debt-free (its debt interest expenses are merely $0.5B).BABA does not pay a dividend. And its CapEx is only about $6.4B, about 20% of its operating income. When we expand our horizon a bit wider and examine its capital allocation over the past a few years, the picture does not change that much, as shown in the next chart.Source: author and Seeking Alpha.BABA: what is its growth potential?It is an unstopped trend that our world is moving toward e-commerce. Even though many of us are already impressed by the success of e-commerce giants like BABA and Amazon, the movement toward e-commerce has just actually gotten started and the bulk of the growth is yet to come.As you can see from the following chart, the global e-commerce penetration has been in steady and rapid increase. The e-commerce penetration has almost doubled from its 10.5% level in 2016 to the current level of 20.2% in merely 4 years, a CAGR of nearly 19%.However, the current e-commerce rate is still ONLY at about 20%. Meaning 80% of the commerce is still currently conducted off-line. Global retail e-commerce sales have reached $4.2 trillion in 2020. And they are projected to almost double by 2026, reaching $7.4 trillion of revenues to the retail e-commerce business. The e-commerce movement is just getting started and the bulk of the growth opportunity is yet to come.Source: Digital Commerce 360And the center of the remaining movement will be in the Asia-Pacific region, where BABA is well-poised to benefit. In a nutshell, even by as early as 2023 – in about 2 years time, that is - retail e-commerce sales in Asia-Pacific are projected to be greater than the rest of the world combined.As shown in the next chart below, the total retail e-commerce in the Asia-Pacific region should reach $1.4 trillion US dollars by 2023. In contrast, the total retail e-commerce by the rest of the world would be about $1.3 trillion only. In relative terms, by 2023, the Western continents will contribute 16% of the total B2B e-commerce volume, while the remaining 84% would come from the non-Western world.The secular trends driving such distribution include: (1) the dominant portion of the world population residing in the Asia-Pacific regions; (2) the rapid urbanization and technological advancements in those regions; (3) more than 85% of new middle-class growth residing in the Asian-Pacific region; and (4) lastly, the incentive from the government and also the initiatives from the private sector (such as in China and Indian) to accelerate the transition to e-commerce.Source: Shopify.A reality check shows asymmetric return/risk profilesFinally, what I always like to do is a reality check as shown in the chart below. It is essentially a back of the envelope calculation to estimate what is the growth rate and valuation required to deliver a target ROI over the next few years, say, 5 or 10 years. And see if such growth rate and valuation can pass a common-sense test.As an example to provide a tutorial to read this chart, if we require a 10% annual ROI, represented by the black horizontal line (10% annual return translates to 160% total return in 10 years because 1.1^10=260%), the growth rate will have to be about exactly 10% if the valuation ratio does not change from its current level (i.e., 7x EBT) – something we all know already. And if the valuation contracts to 5x EBT as shown by the green line, the growth rate would have to be about 13.5% to deliver the required 10% ROI.With the above background, we can see that the current valuation easily passes the reality check. In particular, investment here enjoys a large margin of safety from several factors:1. A large gap between market perception and fundamentals. As seen, under the current valuation, we are very likely to enjoy double-digit returns even if growth is not double-digit. To put things into perspective, BABA's recent “slowed” growth rate is still 20%+. And the secular trend can easily support a double-digit e-commerce growth in the next decade.2. A very compressed valuation. If you pay 10x pretax and bought a business that stagnates forever, you would have bought a 10% yielding bond already. At BABA’s current 7x pretax valuation, even when growth slows all the way to 6% AND valuation further contracts (say to 5x EBT, the lowest point historically), the investment still won’t lose money.Source: author.RisksFirst, there's always the risk that the Chinese government could confiscate foreign investments in BABA if they decide those investments under the VIE structure are illegal. This is very unlikely to me for so many reasons. Second, the ongoing Chinese-U.S. negotiations on the audit disputes still face uncertain outcomes. I am optimistic that eventually an agreement will be reached; however, the path may be long and tortuous. However, in case it fails, there is a chance that BABA could be delisted from the US stock market. Delisting Chinese stocks has just happened recently (the DIDI case, for example). Although, even if BABA stock indeed ended up delisted, that would not necessarily lead to a total loss of capital (again, see the DIDI case as an example).Conclusion and final thoughtsThe recent market overreaction presents an opportunity to buy a great company that is having temporary trouble while it is still on the operating table – as Buffett and Munger have done so masterfully in the past. The thesis of this article is, therefore, really simple – companies like BABA should never be priced below 10x EBT as it is now.The current pricing is such that BABA is valued significantly below 10x pretax earnings. And as a result,Even buying an average business that stagnates forever at such a valuation would already provide a doubt-digit return.Yet, BABA is anything but an average business that will stagnate forever. BABA stands best poised to benefit from the world’s movement towards e-commerce and especially the Asian-Pacific momentum. To put things into perspective, BABA's recent “slowed” growth rate is still 20%+ YoY. And the global secular trend, especially in the Asian Pacific region, can easily support a double-digit e-commerce growth in the next decade.The margin of safety is so thick here that even when growth slows all the way to 6% AND valuation further contracts to 5x EBT (the lowest level historically), the investment would still make a small profit and won’t lose money.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003323526,"gmtCreate":1640881982381,"gmtModify":1676533550976,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio&nbsp;","listText":"Nio&nbsp;","text":"Nio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003323526","repostId":"1139674064","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141008324,"gmtCreate":1625821607968,"gmtModify":1703749245812,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141008324","repostId":"2150323705","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9914770604,"gmtCreate":1665373152708,"gmtModify":1676537595003,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for more drop after the CPI is announced this Thursday&nbsp;","listText":"Waiting for more drop after the CPI is announced this Thursday&nbsp;","text":"Waiting for more drop after the CPI is announced this Thursday","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914770604","repostId":"2274458895","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2274458895","pubTimestamp":1665355533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274458895?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 06:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CPI Sets the Stage for Fed's November Hike, Banks Report for Q3: What to Know This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274458895","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"An already strained U.S. stock market will be further challenged in the week ahead as the government publishes a key inflation report and megabanks kick off what’slikely to be a murky earnings season.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>An already strained U.S. stock market will be further challenged in the week ahead as the government publishes a key inflation report and megabanks kick off what’s likely to be a murky earnings season.</p><p>The highly-awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) takes top billing in coming days, with third-quarter financials from the country’s largest banks – JPMorgan (JPM), Citi (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) – following suit in the line of importance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f0f37bbff5251cf5a672004561faeef\" tg-width=\"2044\" tg-height=\"1448\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>A fresh CPI reading on Thursday is expected to dictate how much more aggressive the Federal Reserve will get with its interest rate hiking plans, which are already the most combative in decades. The consequential economic release will hold even greater significance after the Labor Department’s September jobs report on Friday suggested officials have further room for increases.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/541f2357db95a28c89672d947882d8dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>JPMorgan President and CEO Jamie Dimon testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 22, 2022. (REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein)</span></p><p>The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs last month, a moderation from the prior print but still a robust hiring figure, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The weaker-than-expected decline in payroll gains dashed investor hopes that FOMC members might shift away from monetary tightening sooner than anticipated.</p><p>That reality sent stocks spiraling on Friday. The S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) plunged 2.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 630 points, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way down at a decline of 3.8%. The major averages managed to end higher for the week after three straight down weeks after retaining some gains from a transient rally the first two trading days of October.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d03327c522e4f944485e66952e5c24a2\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“Persistent strength in hiring and a drop in the unemployment rate, in our view, mean the Fed is unlikely to pivot in the direction of a slower pace of rate hikes until it has more clear evidence that employment growth is slowing,” analysts at Bank of America said in a note on Friday, adding that the institution expects a fourth 75-basis-point rate increase in November.</p><p>And this week’s inflation reading could corroborate such a move next month. According to Bloomberg forecasts, the headline consumer price index for September is expected to show a slight moderation on a year-over-year figure to 8.1% from 8.3% in August, but an increase to 0.2% from 0.1% over the month.</p><p>All eyes will be on the “core” component of the report, which strips out the volatile food and energy categories. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project core CPI rose to 6.5% from 6.3% over the year but moderated to 0.4% monthly from 0.6% in August.</p><p>Marginal fluctuations in the data have not been reassuring enough to Federal Reserve members that they can step away from intervening any time soon. Speaking at an event in New York last week, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly called inflation a “corrosive disease,”and a “toxin that erodes the real purchasing power of people.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a183e6937eab492d9c263c10c4650349\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>A sign for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors is seen at the entrance to the William McChesney Martin Jr. building ahead of a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell on interest rate policy, in Washington, U.S., September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque</span></p><p>Elsewhere in economic releases, investors will also get a gauge of how quickly prices are rising at the wholesale level with the producer price index, or PPI, which measures the change in the prices paid to U.S. producers of goods and services; a reading on how consumer spending is faring amid persistent inflation and slowing economic conditions with the government’s retail sales report; and a consumer sentiment check from the University of Michigan closely watched survey.</p><p>Meanwhile, bank earnings will set the stage for a third-quarter earnings season expected to be ridden with economic warnings from corporate executives about the state of their businesses, slashed earnings per share estimates across Wall Street, and generally milder results as price and rate pressures weighed on companies in the recent three-month period.</p><p>Results from JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley are all on tap for the coming week and will be followed by Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) the following week.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5088c955861b1fd864d4c07b311fec8a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Chief executives of the country&#39;s largest banks are sworn-in at the start of a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing on &#34;Annual Oversight of the Nation&#39;s Largest Banks&#34;, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein</span></p><p>Banks typically benefit from central bank policy tightening, with higher interest rates boosting their net interest income (the bank’s earnings on its lending activities and interest it pays to depositors) and net interest margins (calculated by dividing net interest income by the average income earned from interest-producing assets.) However, challenging market conditions that have dealt a blow to dealmaking activity and general macroeconomic uncertainty are poised to offset higher net interest income.</p><p>Analysts at Bank of America project earnings growth to slow across banks and brokers to 2.0% year-over-year in the third quarter from 5.9% in the second and 7.7% in the third, per bottom-up consensus estimates, per a recent note.</p><p>However, that drop pales in comparison to expectations for sectors outside of financials — with the exception of the energy sector — according to BofA. Earnings growth in those areas “is expected to dip well into the negative territory,” the bank warned in a note, with expectations for growth of -4.2% year-over-year in the third quarter, down from -1.3% in the second quarter.</p><p>—</p><p><b>Economic Calendar</b></p><p><b>Monday:</b> <i>No notable reports scheduled for release.</i></p><p><b>Tuesday:</b> <b><i>NFIB Small Business Optimism</i></b>, September (91.8 expected, 91.8 during prior month); <b><i>Monthly Budget Statement</i></b>, September (-$219.6 billion)</p><p><b>Wednesday</b>: <b><i>MBA Mortgage Applications</i></b>, week ended Oct. 7 (-14.2% during prior week); <b><i>PPI excluding food and energy</i></b>, year-over-year, September (7.3% expected, 7.3% during prior month); <b><i>PPI final demand</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, -0.1% during prior month);<b><i>PPI excluding food and energy</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.3% expected, 0.4% during prior month); <b><i>PPI excluding food, energy, and trade</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.2% during prior month); <b><i>PPI final demand</i></b>, year-over-year, September (8.4% expected, 8.7% during prior month); <b><i>PPI excluding food, energy, and trade</i></b>, year-over-year, September (5.6% during prior month); <b><i>FOMC Meeting Minutes</i></b>, September 21</p><p><b>Thursday:</b> <b><i>Consumer Price Index</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.1% during prior month); <b><i>CPI excluding food and energy</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.4% expected, 0.6% during prior month); <b><i>Consumer Price Index</i></b>, year-over-year, September (8.1% expected, 8.3% during prior month); <b><i>CPI excluding food and energy</i></b>, year-over-year, September (6.5% expected, 6.3% during prior month); <b><i>CPI Index NSA</i></b>, September (296.417 expected, 296.171 during prior month); <b><i>CPI Core Index SA</i></b>, September (296.950 during prior month); <b><i>Initial jobless claims</i></b>, week ended Oct. 8 (225,000 expected, 219,000 during prior week); <b><i>Continuing claims</i></b>, week ended Oct.1 (1.361 during prior week); <b><i>Real Average Weekly Earnings</i></b>, year-over-year, September (-3.4% during prior month)</p><p><b>Friday:</b><b><i>Retail Sales Advance</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.3% during prior month); <b><i>Retail Sales excluding autos</i></b>, month-over-month, September (-0.1% expected, -0.3% during prior month); <b><i>Retail Sales excluding autos and gas</i></b>, month-over-month, September (0.3% during prior month); <b><i>Retail Sales Control Group</i></b>, September (0.0% during prior month); <b><i>Import Price Index</i></b>, month-over-month, September (-1.1% expected, -1.0% during prior month); <b><i>Import Price Index excluding petroleum</i></b>, month-over-month, September (-0.2% during prior month);<b><i>Import Price Index</i></b>, year-over-year, September (7.8% during prior month); <b><i>Export Price Index</i></b>, month-over-month, September (-1.2% expected, -1.6% during prior month); <b><i>Export Price Index</i></b>, year-over-year, September (10.8% during prior month); <b><i>Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey</i></b>; <b><i>Business Inventories</i></b>, August (0.9% expected, 0.6% during prior reading); <b><i>University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment</i></b>, October preliminary (58.8 expected, 58.6 during prior month)</p><p>—</p><p><b>Earnings Calendar</b></p><p><b>Monday:</b> <i>No notable reports scheduled for release.</i></p><p><b>Tuesday:</b> <b><i>AZZ</i></b>(AZZ), <b><i>Pinnacle Financial Partners</i></b>(PNFP)</p><p><b>Wednesday:</b> <b><i>PepsiCo</i></b>(PEP), <b><i>Duck Creek Technologies</i></b>(DCT)</p><p><b>Thursday:</b> <b><i>BlackRock</i></b>(BLK), <b><i>Delta Air Lines</i></b>(DAL), <b><i>Progressive</i></b>(PGR), <b><i>Walgreens Boots Alliance</i></b>(WBA), <b><i>Commercial Metals</i></b>(CMC), <b><i>Taiwan Semiconductor</i></b>(TSM)</p><p><b>Friday:</b> <b><i>JPMorgan</i></b>(JPM), <b><i>Citigroup</i></b>(C), <b><i>Morgan Stanley</i></b>(MS), <b><i>PNC</i></b>(PNC), <b><i>U.S. Bancorp</i></b>(USB), <b><i>UnitedHealth</i></b>(UNH), <b><i>Wells Fargo</i></b>(WFC)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab39c81b03db8f153d4fd3ab9b19d463\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI Sets the Stage for Fed's November Hike, Banks Report for Q3: What to Know This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI Sets the Stage for Fed's November Hike, Banks Report for Q3: What to Know This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-10 06:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-week-ahead-september-cpi-bank-earnings-195249849.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>An already strained U.S. stock market will be further challenged in the week ahead as the government publishes a key inflation report and megabanks kick off what’s likely to be a murky earnings season...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-week-ahead-september-cpi-bank-earnings-195249849.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PNC":"PNC金融","UNH":"联合健康","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","DAL":"达美航空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","C":"花旗","BLK":"贝莱德","TSM":"台积电","WFC":"富国银行",".DJI":"道琼斯","PEP":"百事可乐","JPM":"摩根大通","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-week-ahead-september-cpi-bank-earnings-195249849.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274458895","content_text":"An already strained U.S. stock market will be further challenged in the week ahead as the government publishes a key inflation report and megabanks kick off what’s likely to be a murky earnings season.The highly-awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) takes top billing in coming days, with third-quarter financials from the country’s largest banks – JPMorgan (JPM), Citi (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) – following suit in the line of importance.A fresh CPI reading on Thursday is expected to dictate how much more aggressive the Federal Reserve will get with its interest rate hiking plans, which are already the most combative in decades. The consequential economic release will hold even greater significance after the Labor Department’s September jobs report on Friday suggested officials have further room for increases.JPMorgan President and CEO Jamie Dimon testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 22, 2022. (REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein)The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs last month, a moderation from the prior print but still a robust hiring figure, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The weaker-than-expected decline in payroll gains dashed investor hopes that FOMC members might shift away from monetary tightening sooner than anticipated.That reality sent stocks spiraling on Friday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) plunged 2.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed 630 points, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way down at a decline of 3.8%. The major averages managed to end higher for the week after three straight down weeks after retaining some gains from a transient rally the first two trading days of October.“Persistent strength in hiring and a drop in the unemployment rate, in our view, mean the Fed is unlikely to pivot in the direction of a slower pace of rate hikes until it has more clear evidence that employment growth is slowing,” analysts at Bank of America said in a note on Friday, adding that the institution expects a fourth 75-basis-point rate increase in November.And this week’s inflation reading could corroborate such a move next month. According to Bloomberg forecasts, the headline consumer price index for September is expected to show a slight moderation on a year-over-year figure to 8.1% from 8.3% in August, but an increase to 0.2% from 0.1% over the month.All eyes will be on the “core” component of the report, which strips out the volatile food and energy categories. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project core CPI rose to 6.5% from 6.3% over the year but moderated to 0.4% monthly from 0.6% in August.Marginal fluctuations in the data have not been reassuring enough to Federal Reserve members that they can step away from intervening any time soon. Speaking at an event in New York last week, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly called inflation a “corrosive disease,”and a “toxin that erodes the real purchasing power of people.”A sign for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors is seen at the entrance to the William McChesney Martin Jr. building ahead of a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell on interest rate policy, in Washington, U.S., September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Kevin LamarqueElsewhere in economic releases, investors will also get a gauge of how quickly prices are rising at the wholesale level with the producer price index, or PPI, which measures the change in the prices paid to U.S. producers of goods and services; a reading on how consumer spending is faring amid persistent inflation and slowing economic conditions with the government’s retail sales report; and a consumer sentiment check from the University of Michigan closely watched survey.Meanwhile, bank earnings will set the stage for a third-quarter earnings season expected to be ridden with economic warnings from corporate executives about the state of their businesses, slashed earnings per share estimates across Wall Street, and generally milder results as price and rate pressures weighed on companies in the recent three-month period.Results from JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley are all on tap for the coming week and will be followed by Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) the following week.Chief executives of the country's largest banks are sworn-in at the start of a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing on \"Annual Oversight of the Nation's Largest Banks\", on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Evelyn HocksteinBanks typically benefit from central bank policy tightening, with higher interest rates boosting their net interest income (the bank’s earnings on its lending activities and interest it pays to depositors) and net interest margins (calculated by dividing net interest income by the average income earned from interest-producing assets.) However, challenging market conditions that have dealt a blow to dealmaking activity and general macroeconomic uncertainty are poised to offset higher net interest income.Analysts at Bank of America project earnings growth to slow across banks and brokers to 2.0% year-over-year in the third quarter from 5.9% in the second and 7.7% in the third, per bottom-up consensus estimates, per a recent note.However, that drop pales in comparison to expectations for sectors outside of financials — with the exception of the energy sector — according to BofA. Earnings growth in those areas “is expected to dip well into the negative territory,” the bank warned in a note, with expectations for growth of -4.2% year-over-year in the third quarter, down from -1.3% in the second quarter.—Economic CalendarMonday: No notable reports scheduled for release.Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, September (91.8 expected, 91.8 during prior month); Monthly Budget Statement, September (-$219.6 billion)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Oct. 7 (-14.2% during prior week); PPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, September (7.3% expected, 7.3% during prior month); PPI final demand, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, -0.1% during prior month);PPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, September (0.3% expected, 0.4% during prior month); PPI excluding food, energy, and trade, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.2% during prior month); PPI final demand, year-over-year, September (8.4% expected, 8.7% during prior month); PPI excluding food, energy, and trade, year-over-year, September (5.6% during prior month); FOMC Meeting Minutes, September 21Thursday: Consumer Price Index, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.1% during prior month); CPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, September (0.4% expected, 0.6% during prior month); Consumer Price Index, year-over-year, September (8.1% expected, 8.3% during prior month); CPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, September (6.5% expected, 6.3% during prior month); CPI Index NSA, September (296.417 expected, 296.171 during prior month); CPI Core Index SA, September (296.950 during prior month); Initial jobless claims, week ended Oct. 8 (225,000 expected, 219,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Oct.1 (1.361 during prior week); Real Average Weekly Earnings, year-over-year, September (-3.4% during prior month)Friday:Retail Sales Advance, month-over-month, September (0.2% expected, 0.3% during prior month); Retail Sales excluding autos, month-over-month, September (-0.1% expected, -0.3% during prior month); Retail Sales excluding autos and gas, month-over-month, September (0.3% during prior month); Retail Sales Control Group, September (0.0% during prior month); Import Price Index, month-over-month, September (-1.1% expected, -1.0% during prior month); Import Price Index excluding petroleum, month-over-month, September (-0.2% during prior month);Import Price Index, year-over-year, September (7.8% during prior month); Export Price Index, month-over-month, September (-1.2% expected, -1.6% during prior month); Export Price Index, year-over-year, September (10.8% during prior month); Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey; Business Inventories, August (0.9% expected, 0.6% during prior reading); University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, October preliminary (58.8 expected, 58.6 during prior month)—Earnings CalendarMonday: No notable reports scheduled for release.Tuesday: AZZ(AZZ), Pinnacle Financial Partners(PNFP)Wednesday: PepsiCo(PEP), Duck Creek Technologies(DCT)Thursday: BlackRock(BLK), Delta Air Lines(DAL), Progressive(PGR), Walgreens Boots Alliance(WBA), Commercial Metals(CMC), Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM)Friday: JPMorgan(JPM), Citigroup(C), Morgan Stanley(MS), PNC(PNC), U.S. Bancorp(USB), UnitedHealth(UNH), Wells Fargo(WFC)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912766212,"gmtCreate":1664913169336,"gmtModify":1676537526544,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Short rally to take some small profits","listText":"Short rally to take some small profits","text":"Short rally to take some small profits","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912766212","repostId":"1166613217","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166613217","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664893712,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166613217?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-04 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Major Semiconductor Stocks Cheered up in Morning Trading, With ASML Gaining Over 6% and NVIDIA Gaining Over 4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166613217","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Major semiconductor stocks cheered up in morning trading, with ASML Holding NV gaining over 6% and N","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Major semiconductor stocks cheered up in morning trading, with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML Holding NV</a> gaining over 6% and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a> gaining over 4%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee7b215353d1ab8a3ba8e2c76cc0f633\" tg-width=\"272\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Major Semiconductor Stocks Cheered up in Morning Trading, With ASML Gaining Over 6% and NVIDIA Gaining Over 4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMajor Semiconductor Stocks Cheered up in Morning Trading, With ASML Gaining Over 6% and NVIDIA Gaining Over 4%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-04 22:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Major semiconductor stocks cheered up in morning trading, with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML Holding NV</a> gaining over 6% and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a> gaining over 4%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee7b215353d1ab8a3ba8e2c76cc0f633\" tg-width=\"272\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166613217","content_text":"Major semiconductor stocks cheered up in morning trading, with ASML Holding NV gaining over 6% and NVIDIA Corp gaining over 4%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003323526,"gmtCreate":1640881982381,"gmtModify":1676533550976,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio&nbsp;","listText":"Nio&nbsp;","text":"Nio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003323526","repostId":"1139674064","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139674064","pubTimestamp":1640878484,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139674064?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139674064","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and gre","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.</li><li>Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.</li><li>NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe01e445aec1bb67f1b8d810f551603\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>The EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we&#39;ll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we&#39;ll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.</p><p><b>Lucid And NIO In The EV Market</b></p><p>The global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.</p><p>The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.</p><p><b>LCID Vs. NIO&#39;s Past Quarterly Performance</b></p><p>As noted above, NIO&#39;s sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a6e7cb1b1485f32cc25ade9f387a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Over the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO&#39;s case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian&#39;s (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid&#39;s stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1d0939d657b284e25d8447ccb211b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Shares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO&#39;s underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can&#39;t be said about Lucid.</p><p><b>Lucid Vs. NIO Key Metrics</b></p><p>Let&#39;s take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO&#39;s ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid&#39;s ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive Air<i>Dream</i>version first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.</p><p>NIO&#39;s battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully &#34;recharge&#34; in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn&#39;t employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid&#39;s architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO&#39;s solution, as well as Lucid&#39;s solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.</p><p>NIO&#39;s and Lucid&#39;s tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf92a9709beceb826f2e86b3bc25dd6\" tg-width=\"1502\" tg-height=\"829\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Lucid presentation</span></p><p>A smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.</p><p>NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39530a306d0b27d76d36bccec0e147d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: NIO</span></p><p>With 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO&#39;s sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO&#39;s sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO&#39;s offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO&#39;s self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn&#39;t be a very difficult task. Lucid&#39;s self-driving tech, even though it doesn&#39;t get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO&#39;s Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).</p><p>Strong tech alone doesn&#39;t make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles&#39; quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid&#39;s ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.</p><p>With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.</p><p>For Lucid, regulation doesn&#39;t seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as &#34;Production Hell&#34;. The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It&#39;s not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID&#39;s high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year&#39;s expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.</p><p><b>Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?</b></p><p>Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.</p><p>In NIO&#39;s case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year&#39;s expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year&#39;s sales.</p><p>I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-30 23:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139674064","content_text":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisThe EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we'll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we'll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.Lucid And NIO In The EV MarketThe global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.LCID Vs. NIO's Past Quarterly PerformanceAs noted above, NIO's sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:Data by YChartsOver the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO's case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian's (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid's stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:Data by YChartsShares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO's underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can't be said about Lucid.Lucid Vs. NIO Key MetricsLet's take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO's ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid's ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive AirDreamversion first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.NIO's battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully \"recharge\" in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn't employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid's architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO's solution, as well as Lucid's solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.NIO's and Lucid's tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:Source: Lucid presentationA smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:Source: NIOWith 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO's sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO's sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO's offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO's self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn't be a very difficult task. Lucid's self-driving tech, even though it doesn't get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO's Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).Strong tech alone doesn't make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles' quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid's ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.For Lucid, regulation doesn't seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as \"Production Hell\". The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It's not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID's high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year's expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.In NIO's case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year's expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year's sales.I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061399285,"gmtCreate":1651561748964,"gmtModify":1676534927596,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keeping my full position&nbsp;","listText":"Keeping my full position&nbsp;","text":"Keeping my full position","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061399285","repostId":"2232742796","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2232742796","pubTimestamp":1651547153,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2232742796?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-03 11:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2232742796","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>For investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.</li><li>He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then the position was reduced by about a half according to the recent Daily Journal&#39;s 13F.</li><li>To add to the ambiguity, he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation.</li><li>This article reengineers Munger’s thought process to gain insights into where Alibaba is headed next.</li><li>BABA is another textbook illustration of Munger’s wisdom of buying good businesses on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed its position.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f665544ee7146e737beb7abd9b9596c\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Eric Francis/Getty Images News</span></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>Many investors in Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) probably included Charlie Munger’s actions as part of their investment decision. Indeed, the legendary billionaire doubled down on his BABA position twice in 2021 amid market concerns, and both times created a news splash and large stock price movements. But the most recent filing from the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) reported that his BABA position was reduced by about a half as you can see from the chart below. To add to the ambiguity, he has also announced that he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation, a position held since 1977. Going forward, Munger will remain a director and keep being involved in its securities portfolio.</p><p>This article is my attempt to interpret Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. As his role at DJCO winds down, we can no longer rely on his actions as guidance in our BABA decisions and we will have to rely on our own judgment more. By reengineering Munger’s thoughts, we can gain insights for ourselves not only on BABA but also on other investment opportunities.</p><p>You will see next that my view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 best illustrates Munger’s wisdom of buying good business on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9660e48240f12c06602d9d01717c9f9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: dataroma.com</span></p><p><b>Munger and BABA</b></p><p>The following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancelation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3 and then again in 2021 Q4.</p><p>There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. As mentioned above, the market reacted too quickly based on perception (based on the information available at that time). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth, as elaborated in the next section immediately below.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9aab2ae2ddd5b74d6ef33ed6ea3682\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Yahoo Finance and Author</span></p><p><b>BABA’s core business remains intact</b></p><p>Firstly, my view is that many of the ongoing uncertainties as shown above (the Russian-Ukraine war, COVID interruptions, and the delisting fear) are only temporary and have little long-term relevance to BABA&#39;s existing core retail business. Secondly, the China government has expressed commitment to stabilizing the market and stimulating the economy. And key players like BABA will directly benefit from the government support, as reflected in the large share price rallies shortly after such announcements.</p><p>Under the above background, now let&#39;s look at BABA’s core retail business. BABA reported a total of 1.28 billion Annual Active Consumers Globally for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021. It is an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million (2.6%) and 16 million (about 5%), respectively. Such growth rates may be lower than its faster pace in the past. However, they are still very healthy growth rates at BABA’s scale. And again, the market overaction has compressed its valuation so much so that it is now viewed as a terminally cheap and stagnating business. But the reality is the opposite.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09f58f155de8d774911dedd2de0f281\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>BABA Earnings report</span></p><p>Looking forward, I see the business well-positioned for future growth and the fear overblown for a few key considerations. As aforementioned, upon rational examination, many recent developments are not only temporary but also irrelevant or even positive for BABA. For example, in Sept 2021, BABA made a pledge of 100 billion RMB (or about $15.5B or $3.1B per year) to the Chinese common prosperity fund. To me, this is a positive sign because it shows that the Chinese government is working out a path forward for BABA and hints at what a “new norm” could be for BABA. And also the recent separation of its China retail and international retail is also a positive development in my view. it compartmentalized the regulatory complications and risks for its core business. BABA is now well-positioned to capture the international market. Cainiao continues to expand its global infrastructure by strengthening its end-to-end logistics capabilities, including ehubs, line-haul, sorting centers, and last-mile network.</p><p><b>BABA’s other high-growth opportunities</b></p><p>Besides its core bread-and-butter business, BABA is also well-positioned to capitalize on its investments in other high-growth and high-margin opportunities both domestically and internationally. It is in a key strategic position to capitalize on its local and cross-border supply and global infrastructure in many key areas.</p><p>Its cloud segment is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the highlights. The cloud market in China is projected to grow from RMB 0.2 Trillion in 2020 to RMB 1.0 Trillion in 2025, a 5x growth in 5 years. BABA’s cloud computing revenue grew by 50% year-on-year in its last fiscal year (which ended on 31 March 2021) despite losing a major customer in the March quarter. Since then, its cloud segment grew by another 20% year-over-year to RMB19.5B million (US$3.1B million) in the most recent quarter. At the same time, its cloud revenue is also becoming more diversified. The revenue sources used to be dominated by the internet industry (about 60%). As of the last quarter, the share of the revenue from the internet industry has decreased to about 48%. The solid 20% year-over-year growth reflected robust growth from other key sectors such as the financial and telecommunication industries.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3115a0e3831d1e821d9bf124fb342f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>BABA earnings report</span></p><p><b>Valuation too cheap to ignore</b></p><p>Munger bought BABA shares on the operating table when it was valued as a terminally cheap business. The valuation is still too cheap to ignore. BABA remains deeply undervalued in terms of all the metrics, net earnings, free cash flow, and assets. As seen from the chart below, it’s current valued at about 12x FW PE. And according to consensus estimates, its valuation at the current price will be in the single-digit range starting in 2025 and at about only 6x by 2028.</p><p>At the same time, there is a large cash position on its balance sheet, making the valuation even more compressed than on the surface. Currently, about one-third of its market cap is in its current assets, and more than a half in its current assets, properties, and equity investments. With its China commerce raking in more than $90B of sales per year, the current valuation is equivalent to A) purchasing its equity at book value, B) paying for its China commerce operation at about 1.6x sales (Amazon is valued at about 3.5x sales in contrast), and C) getting all its other operations for free.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e840aa8a60cc3895b5046c5d64b48e23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><b>Conclusions and risks</b></p><p>This article attempts to reengineer Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. My view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 is another textbook illustration of his wisdom of buying good business on the operating table. And I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently. In particular,</p><ul><li>My view is that as his role at DJCO winds down, the trim does not reflect his view anymore. At this point, BABA’s core businesses remain intact and are well-positioned for many high-growth areas especially its cloud computing and CAINIAO logistic infrastructure.</li><li>Many current fears (listed below) are overblown or irrelevant to the business fundamentals in the long term. On the opposite, in the nearer term, BABA investment is further protected at this point by its large share repurchase plan and the Chinese government to stabilize the market and its economy. Its $25B share repurchase plan will shrink the share count by almost 9% at its current price. Given its current undervaluation, it will be highly accreditive to boost shareholder returns.</li></ul><p>Finally, BABA investment does involve considerable risks and is definitely not suitable for all investment styles. The key risks as I see are elaborated below.</p><ul><li>First, large price volatilities. its stock price has recently become dominated by market sentiment and disconnected from fundamentals. Its stock prices easily fluctuated 30%+ in a few days or even a single day recently in response to news and sentiments that may or may not have direct relevance to its business fundamentals.</li><li>Second, the VIE structure risk could lead to a 100% loss. The Chinese government could confiscate foreign investments in BABA if they decide foreign investments made in BABA under the VEI structure are illegal according to Chinese law.</li><li>Third, the delisting risk could also lead to a substantial loss. It led to a 20%+ loss following the next few days in the recent DiDi delisting example.</li><li>Lastly, given the above large uncertainties, potential investors may consider a long call option to limit total exposure risks. As detailed in my earlier article, I think the market’s perception of its price variation is too conservative, resulting in a mispricing of its implied volatility.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-03 11:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2232742796","content_text":"SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then the position was reduced by about a half according to the recent Daily Journal's 13F.To add to the ambiguity, he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation.This article reengineers Munger’s thought process to gain insights into where Alibaba is headed next.BABA is another textbook illustration of Munger’s wisdom of buying good businesses on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed its position.Eric Francis/Getty Images NewsThesisMany investors in Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) probably included Charlie Munger’s actions as part of their investment decision. Indeed, the legendary billionaire doubled down on his BABA position twice in 2021 amid market concerns, and both times created a news splash and large stock price movements. But the most recent filing from the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) reported that his BABA position was reduced by about a half as you can see from the chart below. To add to the ambiguity, he has also announced that he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation, a position held since 1977. Going forward, Munger will remain a director and keep being involved in its securities portfolio.This article is my attempt to interpret Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. As his role at DJCO winds down, we can no longer rely on his actions as guidance in our BABA decisions and we will have to rely on our own judgment more. By reengineering Munger’s thoughts, we can gain insights for ourselves not only on BABA but also on other investment opportunities.You will see next that my view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 best illustrates Munger’s wisdom of buying good business on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently.Source: dataroma.comMunger and BABAThe following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancelation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3 and then again in 2021 Q4.There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. As mentioned above, the market reacted too quickly based on perception (based on the information available at that time). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth, as elaborated in the next section immediately below.Yahoo Finance and AuthorBABA’s core business remains intactFirstly, my view is that many of the ongoing uncertainties as shown above (the Russian-Ukraine war, COVID interruptions, and the delisting fear) are only temporary and have little long-term relevance to BABA's existing core retail business. Secondly, the China government has expressed commitment to stabilizing the market and stimulating the economy. And key players like BABA will directly benefit from the government support, as reflected in the large share price rallies shortly after such announcements.Under the above background, now let's look at BABA’s core retail business. BABA reported a total of 1.28 billion Annual Active Consumers Globally for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021. It is an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million (2.6%) and 16 million (about 5%), respectively. Such growth rates may be lower than its faster pace in the past. However, they are still very healthy growth rates at BABA’s scale. And again, the market overaction has compressed its valuation so much so that it is now viewed as a terminally cheap and stagnating business. But the reality is the opposite.BABA Earnings reportLooking forward, I see the business well-positioned for future growth and the fear overblown for a few key considerations. As aforementioned, upon rational examination, many recent developments are not only temporary but also irrelevant or even positive for BABA. For example, in Sept 2021, BABA made a pledge of 100 billion RMB (or about $15.5B or $3.1B per year) to the Chinese common prosperity fund. To me, this is a positive sign because it shows that the Chinese government is working out a path forward for BABA and hints at what a “new norm” could be for BABA. And also the recent separation of its China retail and international retail is also a positive development in my view. it compartmentalized the regulatory complications and risks for its core business. BABA is now well-positioned to capture the international market. Cainiao continues to expand its global infrastructure by strengthening its end-to-end logistics capabilities, including ehubs, line-haul, sorting centers, and last-mile network.BABA’s other high-growth opportunitiesBesides its core bread-and-butter business, BABA is also well-positioned to capitalize on its investments in other high-growth and high-margin opportunities both domestically and internationally. It is in a key strategic position to capitalize on its local and cross-border supply and global infrastructure in many key areas.Its cloud segment is one of the highlights. The cloud market in China is projected to grow from RMB 0.2 Trillion in 2020 to RMB 1.0 Trillion in 2025, a 5x growth in 5 years. BABA’s cloud computing revenue grew by 50% year-on-year in its last fiscal year (which ended on 31 March 2021) despite losing a major customer in the March quarter. Since then, its cloud segment grew by another 20% year-over-year to RMB19.5B million (US$3.1B million) in the most recent quarter. At the same time, its cloud revenue is also becoming more diversified. The revenue sources used to be dominated by the internet industry (about 60%). As of the last quarter, the share of the revenue from the internet industry has decreased to about 48%. The solid 20% year-over-year growth reflected robust growth from other key sectors such as the financial and telecommunication industries.BABA earnings reportValuation too cheap to ignoreMunger bought BABA shares on the operating table when it was valued as a terminally cheap business. The valuation is still too cheap to ignore. BABA remains deeply undervalued in terms of all the metrics, net earnings, free cash flow, and assets. As seen from the chart below, it’s current valued at about 12x FW PE. And according to consensus estimates, its valuation at the current price will be in the single-digit range starting in 2025 and at about only 6x by 2028.At the same time, there is a large cash position on its balance sheet, making the valuation even more compressed than on the surface. Currently, about one-third of its market cap is in its current assets, and more than a half in its current assets, properties, and equity investments. With its China commerce raking in more than $90B of sales per year, the current valuation is equivalent to A) purchasing its equity at book value, B) paying for its China commerce operation at about 1.6x sales (Amazon is valued at about 3.5x sales in contrast), and C) getting all its other operations for free.Seeking AlphaConclusions and risksThis article attempts to reengineer Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. My view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 is another textbook illustration of his wisdom of buying good business on the operating table. And I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently. In particular,My view is that as his role at DJCO winds down, the trim does not reflect his view anymore. At this point, BABA’s core businesses remain intact and are well-positioned for many high-growth areas especially its cloud computing and CAINIAO logistic infrastructure.Many current fears (listed below) are overblown or irrelevant to the business fundamentals in the long term. On the opposite, in the nearer term, BABA investment is further protected at this point by its large share repurchase plan and the Chinese government to stabilize the market and its economy. Its $25B share repurchase plan will shrink the share count by almost 9% at its current price. Given its current undervaluation, it will be highly accreditive to boost shareholder returns.Finally, BABA investment does involve considerable risks and is definitely not suitable for all investment styles. The key risks as I see are elaborated below.First, large price volatilities. its stock price has recently become dominated by market sentiment and disconnected from fundamentals. Its stock prices easily fluctuated 30%+ in a few days or even a single day recently in response to news and sentiments that may or may not have direct relevance to its business fundamentals.Second, the VIE structure risk could lead to a 100% loss. The Chinese government could confiscate foreign investments in BABA if they decide foreign investments made in BABA under the VEI structure are illegal according to Chinese law.Third, the delisting risk could also lead to a substantial loss. It led to a 20%+ loss following the next few days in the recent DiDi delisting example.Lastly, given the above large uncertainties, potential investors may consider a long call option to limit total exposure risks. As detailed in my earlier article, I think the market’s perception of its price variation is too conservative, resulting in a mispricing of its implied volatility.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080428086,"gmtCreate":1649907643393,"gmtModify":1676534604741,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it's just fear","listText":"Hope it's just fear","text":"Hope it's just fear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080428086","repostId":"2227610161","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141008324,"gmtCreate":1625821607968,"gmtModify":1703749245812,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141008324","repostId":"2150323705","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2150323705","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1625763332,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150323705?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 00:55","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Facebook's Engineering VP Tom Alison To Be New Head Of Facebook App - Spokesperson","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150323705","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"Facebook Inc :Facebook'S Engineering Vice President Tom Alison To Be New Head Of Facebook App - Spok","content":"<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc <fb.o>:Facebook'S Engineering Vice President Tom Alison To Be New Head Of Facebook App - Spokesperson.Further Company Coverage: Fb.O. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</fb.o></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook's Engineering VP Tom Alison To Be New Head Of Facebook App - Spokesperson</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook's Engineering VP Tom Alison To Be New Head Of Facebook App - Spokesperson\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-09 00:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc <fb.o>:Facebook'S Engineering Vice President Tom Alison To Be New Head Of Facebook App - Spokesperson.Further Company Coverage: Fb.O. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</fb.o></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VP..UK":"VP","02383":"TOM集团","NGD":"New Gold"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150323705","content_text":"Facebook Inc :Facebook'S Engineering Vice President Tom Alison To Be New Head Of Facebook App - Spokesperson.Further Company Coverage: Fb.O. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364887271567608,"gmtCreate":1730094141538,"gmtModify":1730094371622,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/LEN 20241115 160.0 PUT SELL 1 | LEN 20241115 165.0 PUT BUY 1\">$LEN VERTICAL 241115 PUT 165.0/PUT 160.0$</a> good chance to earn some premium","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/LEN 20241115 160.0 PUT SELL 1 | LEN 20241115 165.0 PUT BUY 1\">$LEN VERTICAL 241115 PUT 165.0/PUT 160.0$</a> good chance to earn some premium","text":"$LEN VERTICAL 241115 PUT 165.0/PUT 160.0$ good chance to earn some premium","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e887c21af2bc6bbcd7e8ce7b6ed12151","width":"1022","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364887271567608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323826112094264,"gmtCreate":1720065155519,"gmtModify":1720065159092,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat ar! Nvdia is over priced","listText":"Huat ar! Nvdia is over priced","text":"Huat ar! Nvdia is over priced","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323826112094264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915243537,"gmtCreate":1665058204029,"gmtModify":1676537550393,"author":{"id":"3570794022406987","authorId":"3570794022406987","name":"ashburn","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e72a7160ccb4956bc9eaa784c81b72ec","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570794022406987","authorIdStr":"3570794022406987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Short term volatility but long term should be a good start to DCA to build positions for the next 5 -10 yrs","listText":"Short term volatility but long term should be a good start to DCA to build positions for the next 5 -10 yrs","text":"Short term volatility but long term should be a good start to DCA to build positions for the next 5 -10 yrs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915243537","repostId":"2273482308","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273482308","pubTimestamp":1665045143,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273482308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-06 16:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why a 2-Day Stock Market Rally Hasn't Killed the Bear Yet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273482308","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It takes patience for long-term investors to find success.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>KEY POINTS</h2><ul><li>The two-day rally in the stock market has been impressive.</li><li>However, Wednesday seemed to bring more pessimism back into the market.</li><li>Investors will need to learn to deal with ups and downs even if things improve.</li></ul><p>Investors have finally seen the stock market behave better over the past couple of days. After having to deal with a horrible September that sent the <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b> into bear-market territory along with the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> and <b>Nasdaq Composite</b>, the first two trading sessions of October have been remarkable.</p><p>Yet as Wednesday morning dawned, investors appeared likely to have to prepare for a pause in the fourth-quarter celebration. With contracts on stock index futures down around 1%, it&#39;s clear that long-term investors will have to have patience in order to benefit from the recovery when it comes. Moreover, the next several weeks will likely bring a lot more uncertainty into the mix, making it more important than ever to have conviction in your views of the companies in which you&#39;ve invested.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/228b6b7ee41d3954798ec71cbeb65fca\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Hope springs eternal</h2><p>Investors have had to deal with a lot over the past several years. The economic disruptions from a global pandemic forced central banks and national governments to take unprecedented actions. Changes in behavior made businesses pivot sharply, both to keep themselves in operation and to respond to the changing needs of their customers. Even as the influence of the pandemic waned and people strived to return to their former lives, the pace of recovery in various places was out of alignment with others, causing more disruptions that kept businesses from reaching optimal efficiency and capacity.</p><p>Central banks always intended the emergency measures they took to be temporary, but market participants had learned to look at such comments with a cynical eye. Even after the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 gave way to a decade-long expansion, for instance, Federal Reserve officials were reluctant to reverse the flow of liquidity they had added to the financial system in the wake of the Great Recession.</p><p>In that context, the current Fed&#39;s insistence on raising interest rates sharply to prevent inflationary pressures from becoming entrenched in the U.S. economy stood out as a different sort of response from the central bank. In large part, the current bear market stems from investors&#39; disbelief that the Fed would hold the line even in the face of heavy criticism not just from financial markets but also from politicians and the public at large.</p><h2>Will the Fed flinch?</h2><p>Movements in the broader financial markets reflected the new belief that the Fed will indeed have to reverse the sharp course of its monetary tightening moves. The abrupt reversal of government policy in the U.K. showed that foreign countries were still paying close attention to what market participants had to say about their actions. The most obvious sign that investors hoped the same would happen in the U.S. came from the big decline in bond yields, which in some ways was even more remarkable than the two-day stock market rally investors have seen.</p><p>Yet it&#39;s far from clear that the Fed will reverse course. Having staked its credibility on fighting inflation until the bitter end, even a conciliatory slowdown in its future course of interest rate increases could damage its reputation.</p><p>Meanwhile, markets will get huge amounts of information in the coming weeks about what&#39;s happening in the economy. Hundreds of companies will release their third-quarter financial reports, with many of them probably emphasizing the impacts of inflation, a strong U.S. dollar, higher interest rates, and ongoing business disruptions as factors that have held back short-term growth. Yet what investors will likely focus on is whether those companies see better times ahead.</p><p>Similarly, economic data will shed light on how entrenched inflation has already become. If falling gasoline prices send costs of other goods and services down along with them, then the Fed might not need to be as aggressive.</p><p>Investors need to prepare for continued volatility. Even if the market is beginning a longer-term recovery, it won&#39;t be obvious immediately -- and you shouldn&#39;t expect to see the market keep soaring day after day.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why a 2-Day Stock Market Rally Hasn't Killed the Bear Yet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy a 2-Day Stock Market Rally Hasn't Killed the Bear Yet\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-06 16:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/05/2-day-stock-market-rally-hasnt-killed-bear-market/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe two-day rally in the stock market has been impressive.However, Wednesday seemed to bring more pessimism back into the market.Investors will need to learn to deal with ups and downs even ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/05/2-day-stock-market-rally-hasnt-killed-bear-market/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/05/2-day-stock-market-rally-hasnt-killed-bear-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273482308","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe two-day rally in the stock market has been impressive.However, Wednesday seemed to bring more pessimism back into the market.Investors will need to learn to deal with ups and downs even if things improve.Investors have finally seen the stock market behave better over the past couple of days. After having to deal with a horrible September that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average into bear-market territory along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, the first two trading sessions of October have been remarkable.Yet as Wednesday morning dawned, investors appeared likely to have to prepare for a pause in the fourth-quarter celebration. With contracts on stock index futures down around 1%, it's clear that long-term investors will have to have patience in order to benefit from the recovery when it comes. Moreover, the next several weeks will likely bring a lot more uncertainty into the mix, making it more important than ever to have conviction in your views of the companies in which you've invested.Image source: Getty Images.Hope springs eternalInvestors have had to deal with a lot over the past several years. The economic disruptions from a global pandemic forced central banks and national governments to take unprecedented actions. Changes in behavior made businesses pivot sharply, both to keep themselves in operation and to respond to the changing needs of their customers. Even as the influence of the pandemic waned and people strived to return to their former lives, the pace of recovery in various places was out of alignment with others, causing more disruptions that kept businesses from reaching optimal efficiency and capacity.Central banks always intended the emergency measures they took to be temporary, but market participants had learned to look at such comments with a cynical eye. Even after the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 gave way to a decade-long expansion, for instance, Federal Reserve officials were reluctant to reverse the flow of liquidity they had added to the financial system in the wake of the Great Recession.In that context, the current Fed's insistence on raising interest rates sharply to prevent inflationary pressures from becoming entrenched in the U.S. economy stood out as a different sort of response from the central bank. In large part, the current bear market stems from investors' disbelief that the Fed would hold the line even in the face of heavy criticism not just from financial markets but also from politicians and the public at large.Will the Fed flinch?Movements in the broader financial markets reflected the new belief that the Fed will indeed have to reverse the sharp course of its monetary tightening moves. The abrupt reversal of government policy in the U.K. showed that foreign countries were still paying close attention to what market participants had to say about their actions. The most obvious sign that investors hoped the same would happen in the U.S. came from the big decline in bond yields, which in some ways was even more remarkable than the two-day stock market rally investors have seen.Yet it's far from clear that the Fed will reverse course. Having staked its credibility on fighting inflation until the bitter end, even a conciliatory slowdown in its future course of interest rate increases could damage its reputation.Meanwhile, markets will get huge amounts of information in the coming weeks about what's happening in the economy. Hundreds of companies will release their third-quarter financial reports, with many of them probably emphasizing the impacts of inflation, a strong U.S. dollar, higher interest rates, and ongoing business disruptions as factors that have held back short-term growth. Yet what investors will likely focus on is whether those companies see better times ahead.Similarly, economic data will shed light on how entrenched inflation has already become. If falling gasoline prices send costs of other goods and services down along with them, then the Fed might not need to be as aggressive.Investors need to prepare for continued volatility. Even if the market is beginning a longer-term recovery, it won't be obvious immediately -- and you shouldn't expect to see the market keep soaring day after day.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}