Tommyng97 personal page - To The Moon

Tommyng97

Tommyng97

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2021-07-26

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2021-07-24

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2021-07-20

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2021-07-19

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2021-07-19

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OPEC + agrees to boost oil production, ending current stalemate

2021-07-18

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2021-07-16

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Foreign media headlines: The Federal Reserve ignores inflation and is hot! The market contains unexpected risks

2021-07-15

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The window of the bull market is closing

2021-07-14

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The time has come to test the Federal Reserve as U.S. inflation fever persists

2021-07-13

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2021-07-13

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How does the Fed take a stand at its July meeting? Follow the CPI Tonight

2021-07-12

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"Buy every earnings season" is afraid of failure! U.S. Stocks Outlook Encounters 4 Hidden Worry Traps

2021-07-11

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Thorpe and Simmons: The Legendary Lives of Two Godfather Investment Magnates

2021-07-10

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Opinions on tapering QE are divided, what is the Fed hesitant about?

2021-07-09

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Wall Street's Big Three Together Bet: Reflation Trading Will Make a Comeback

2021-07-08

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2021-07-08

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2021-07-06

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$1.3 trillion "big transfer", this summer is doomed to not be quiet

2021-07-05

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US Stocks Continue to Set Records, Do Investors Need to Be Alert?

2021-07-05

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OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?

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like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173195653","repostId":"1160796593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160796593","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626606185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160796593?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 19:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"OPEC + agrees to boost oil production, ending current stalemate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160796593","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月18日，在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后，欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示，该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日，直到所有闲置的产能都恢复，根据协议，阿联酋、伊拉克和","content":"<p>On July 18, OPEC and its allies agreed to gradually increase oil supplies to the market after Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved a dispute that blocked a deal. The organization will increase production by up to 400,000 bpd per month until all spare capacity is restored, according to the agreement, with the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait receiving higher production quotas from May 2022. The agreement will ease the imminent supply crunch and reduce the risk of higher oil prices. It also capped a stalemate that unnerved traders.</p><p>OPEC + agreed a new baseline of 3.5 million barrels per day for crude oil production cuts in the UAE, which will take effect from May 2022.</p><p>In addition to the UAE, other OPEC + members are also expected to receive new benchmarks for production cuts, with Iraq and Kuwait raising their production baselines by 150,000 bpd each.</p><p>OPEC + agreed to adjust benchmark Saudi and Russian oil production to 11.5 million barrels per day from the previous 11 million barrels per day starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has also agreed to further ease production cuts from August, with a new crude oil cut benchmark coming into effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has reached an agreement on crude oil production, and the next OPEC + meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the agreement to cut production until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement shows that OPEC + plans to fully cancel the 5.8 million bpd production cut by September 2022, when market conditions allow.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC + agrees to boost oil production, ending current stalemate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC + agrees to boost oil production, ending current stalemate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 19:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 18, OPEC and its allies agreed to gradually increase oil supplies to the market after Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved a dispute that blocked a deal. The organization will increase production by up to 400,000 bpd per month until all spare capacity is restored, according to the agreement, with the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait receiving higher production quotas from May 2022. The agreement will ease the imminent supply crunch and reduce the risk of higher oil prices. It also capped a stalemate that unnerved traders.</p><p>OPEC + agreed a new baseline of 3.5 million barrels per day for crude oil production cuts in the UAE, which will take effect from May 2022.</p><p>In addition to the UAE, other OPEC + members are also expected to receive new benchmarks for production cuts, with Iraq and Kuwait raising their production baselines by 150,000 bpd each.</p><p>OPEC + agreed to adjust benchmark Saudi and Russian oil production to 11.5 million barrels per day from the previous 11 million barrels per day starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has also agreed to further ease production cuts from August, with a new crude oil cut benchmark coming into effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has reached an agreement on crude oil production, and the next OPEC + meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the agreement to cut production until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement shows that OPEC + plans to fully cancel the 5.8 million bpd production cut by September 2022, when market conditions allow.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0e918dfd4ec815c4f78fc4cfc3ea3e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160796593","content_text":"7月18日，在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后，欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示，该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日，直到所有闲置的产能都恢复，根据协议，阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张，并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。\nOPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日，将于2022年5月开始生效。\n除了阿联酋，其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准，伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。\n欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始，将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。\nOPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产，新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。\n欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议，下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行，同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。\n欧佩克草案声明显示，欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前，在市场条件允许的情况下，全面取消580万桶/日的减产。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179244800,"gmtCreate":1626540410500,"gmtModify":1703761588666,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179244800","repostId":"1130243635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170187109,"gmtCreate":1626412770401,"gmtModify":1703759678064,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170187109","repostId":"2151575910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151575910","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626384989,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151575910?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 05:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines: The Federal Reserve ignores inflation and is hot! The market contains unexpected risks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151575910","media":"新浪财经","summary":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、鲍威尔再次被追问通胀问题 称美联储正关注风险\n\n\n2、El-Erian：美联储无视通胀火爆 将面临政策失误或市场意外风险\n\n\n3、央行数字货币或对","content":"<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Powell was pressed about inflation again, saying that the Federal Reserve was paying attention to risks</b><b>2. El-Erian: The Fed will face policy mistakes or market surprises if it ignores hot inflation</b><b>3. Central bank digital currency or competition for cryptocurrency Bitcoin accelerated its decline amid this concern</b><b>4. The decline of residential sales in the United States leads to the scarcity of market stock due to the scramble of buyers</b><b>5. Evans of the Federal Reserve: More progress needs to be made in employment before cutting down</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn Ark Fund to repeat dot-com bubble-era 'bull trap'</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839101c234b07aa0606aef304368acf7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Powell Pressed Again About Inflation Says Fed Is Looking at Risk</b></p><p>For the second day in a row, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell defended his stance of keeping policy loose despite troubling levels of inflation.</p><p>\"This shock to the system has to do with the restart of the economy and pushing inflation well above 2%, and we are certainly upset about that,\" he told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.</p><p>Powell called the current price rise a \"unique\" phenomenon in history and said the Fed is watching closely to see if its expectations of temporarily high inflation are correct and whether inflation is likely to last longer.</p><p>\"So we're trying to understand the basics and the risks,\" he said.</p><p>Powell said prices have soared so far mainly in limited areas such as used cars, reiterating that he expects those increases to be temporary.</p><p>\"It's temporary, and there's no point in reacting to it from that perspective,\" he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034fc45bd0cb53c1c7b4b56d452cc8a7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>El-Erian: The Fed risks policy mistakes or market surprises by ignoring hot inflation</b></p><p>El-Erian, the chief economic adviser of Allianz, published an op-ed saying that it is a serious fact that the U.S. CPI and PPI are both higher. It shows that the rate of inflation that is actually occurring is accompanied by additional inflation in the making. This goes against the Fed's repeated view that inflation is temporary, especially as the base effect has largely faded.</p><p>A big event this week was Fed Chair Powell's congressional hearing on Wednesday, when he acknowledged that inflation has been higher than the Fed expected and has been going on for longer. However, when it comes to policy implications, he immediately returns to the oft-repeated \"temporary\" mantra in favor of unchanged policy positions. New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams delivered a similar message on Monday, confirming that two of the three most influential Fed officials- -and the policymakers the markets are paying the most attention to- -remain inclined to maintain hyper-stimulatory policies despite repeated underestimates of economic growth and inflation.</p><p>El-Erian believes that the longer the Fed's current policy allocation lasts, the greater the risk of monetary policy errors. And the longer the economic-policy disconnect lasts, the more risk-taking behavior in the market will be, and the greater the risk of unexpected occurrences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0aeb4f41704121f0f395f77be2e94e0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Central bank digital currencies may compete with cryptocurrencies Bitcoin accelerates decline amid such concerns</b></p><p>Cryptocurrency and central bank digital currency (CBDC) prospects are again in the spotlight. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stressed at this week's hearing that it needs to be done the right way. Meanwhile, the ECB has taken a major step towards digital currencies by approving the digital euro project to enter the \"investigative phase\", which could finally bring the digital euro to the ground around the middle of 2021-2030.</p><p>\"As all over the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Exploring the idea of a digital currency, investors realized there was a lot of competition in the space. This could dilute the valuation of some digital assets currently in use, \"said Brian Vendig, president of MJP Wealth Advisors. \"Investors are weighing a lot, and digital assets may lose some of their shine due to their volatility.\"</p><p>The prospect of central banks developing digital currencies could put pressure on cryptocurrencies, a view echoed by others. Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: \"Crypto's loss of advantage comes amid growing speculation about the impact of digital currency launches by various central banks.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ae005dad5c04b425766f93266c60b9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. Residential Sales Slip Buyers Scramble to Scarce Market Stock</b></p><p>In the most competitive housing market in U.S. history, sales are starting to stall.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDFN\">Redfin Corp</a>U.S. real estate transactions fell 1.2% month-on-month in June, the largest monthly decline over the same period since records began in 2012, according to seasonally adjusted data from. Inventory reached an all-time low, selling on average within 14 days of listing, the fastest speed ever.</p><p>Remote work, combined with extremely low mortgage rates, has sent buyers flocking to American suburbs and affordable cities. The median home price rose 25% in June from a year earlier to a record $386,888.</p><p>\"We are entering a new phase in the housing market,\" Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in an announcement. \"Price increases are beyond what many buyers can afford.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d5a82b4786c64628f5a7379187ad40\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fed's Evans: More Progress on Jobs Before Cutdown</b></p><p>Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said Thursday that U.S. job growth was slower than he expected and that the job market needs more improvement before the Federal Reserve starts to reduce its support for the economy.</p><p>Evans said: \"Given that employment growth has been lower than I expected in recent months, I would say that we need to do more to reach the threshold of 'substantial further progress' in adjusting our monetary policy stance.\"</p><p>Evans said it would take \"more than a few months\" to determine the right timing for the downsizing.</p><p>On inflation, Evans said he was confident enough that high inflation would be temporary. If inflation looks more persistent, then the Fed may need to adjust its stance earlier.</p><p>Evans believes the U.S. will see substantial further progress by the end of the year, still believing the Fed will raise interest rates in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deb2be8133054345917ff3f2e7aca29e\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn Ark Fund to repeat dot-com bubble-era 'bull trap'</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Shawn Quigg of Cathie Wood's flagship ETF is showing a lot of bubbly nature, similar to the growth stock fund of 2000, and investors should consider shorting it through options.</p><p>The derivatives strategist believes a rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in the second half of the year could trigger<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>(symbol ARKK) fell. The fund has gained about 19% since mid-May.</p><p>\"Into a bull trap reversal,\" Quigg wrote in a client note Thursday. \"The potential yield rise could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK's decline, coupled with the large conventional tech stocks continuing to outperform disruptive tech stocks, driving ARKK into a selloff phase.\"</p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has already fallen more than 40 basis points from its recent high at the end of March to around 1.32%, helping to fuel ARKK's rally. Quigg believes this is a technical market that will reverse as the economy reopens trading to regain its footing for the rest of the year.</p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines: The Federal Reserve ignores inflation and is hot! The market contains unexpected risks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines: The Federal Reserve ignores inflation and is hot! The market contains unexpected risks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-16 05:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Powell was pressed about inflation again, saying that the Federal Reserve was paying attention to risks</b><b>2. El-Erian: The Fed will face policy mistakes or market surprises if it ignores hot inflation</b><b>3. Central bank digital currency or competition for cryptocurrency Bitcoin accelerated its decline amid this concern</b><b>4. The decline of residential sales in the United States leads to the scarcity of market stock due to the scramble of buyers</b><b>5. Evans of the Federal Reserve: More progress needs to be made in employment before cutting down</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn Ark Fund to repeat dot-com bubble-era 'bull trap'</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839101c234b07aa0606aef304368acf7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Powell Pressed Again About Inflation Says Fed Is Looking at Risk</b></p><p>For the second day in a row, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell defended his stance of keeping policy loose despite troubling levels of inflation.</p><p>\"This shock to the system has to do with the restart of the economy and pushing inflation well above 2%, and we are certainly upset about that,\" he told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.</p><p>Powell called the current price rise a \"unique\" phenomenon in history and said the Fed is watching closely to see if its expectations of temporarily high inflation are correct and whether inflation is likely to last longer.</p><p>\"So we're trying to understand the basics and the risks,\" he said.</p><p>Powell said prices have soared so far mainly in limited areas such as used cars, reiterating that he expects those increases to be temporary.</p><p>\"It's temporary, and there's no point in reacting to it from that perspective,\" he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034fc45bd0cb53c1c7b4b56d452cc8a7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>El-Erian: The Fed risks policy mistakes or market surprises by ignoring hot inflation</b></p><p>El-Erian, the chief economic adviser of Allianz, published an op-ed saying that it is a serious fact that the U.S. CPI and PPI are both higher. It shows that the rate of inflation that is actually occurring is accompanied by additional inflation in the making. This goes against the Fed's repeated view that inflation is temporary, especially as the base effect has largely faded.</p><p>A big event this week was Fed Chair Powell's congressional hearing on Wednesday, when he acknowledged that inflation has been higher than the Fed expected and has been going on for longer. However, when it comes to policy implications, he immediately returns to the oft-repeated \"temporary\" mantra in favor of unchanged policy positions. New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams delivered a similar message on Monday, confirming that two of the three most influential Fed officials- -and the policymakers the markets are paying the most attention to- -remain inclined to maintain hyper-stimulatory policies despite repeated underestimates of economic growth and inflation.</p><p>El-Erian believes that the longer the Fed's current policy allocation lasts, the greater the risk of monetary policy errors. And the longer the economic-policy disconnect lasts, the more risk-taking behavior in the market will be, and the greater the risk of unexpected occurrences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0aeb4f41704121f0f395f77be2e94e0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Central bank digital currencies may compete with cryptocurrencies Bitcoin accelerates decline amid such concerns</b></p><p>Cryptocurrency and central bank digital currency (CBDC) prospects are again in the spotlight. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stressed at this week's hearing that it needs to be done the right way. Meanwhile, the ECB has taken a major step towards digital currencies by approving the digital euro project to enter the \"investigative phase\", which could finally bring the digital euro to the ground around the middle of 2021-2030.</p><p>\"As all over the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Exploring the idea of a digital currency, investors realized there was a lot of competition in the space. This could dilute the valuation of some digital assets currently in use, \"said Brian Vendig, president of MJP Wealth Advisors. \"Investors are weighing a lot, and digital assets may lose some of their shine due to their volatility.\"</p><p>The prospect of central banks developing digital currencies could put pressure on cryptocurrencies, a view echoed by others. Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: \"Crypto's loss of advantage comes amid growing speculation about the impact of digital currency launches by various central banks.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ae005dad5c04b425766f93266c60b9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. Residential Sales Slip Buyers Scramble to Scarce Market Stock</b></p><p>In the most competitive housing market in U.S. history, sales are starting to stall.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDFN\">Redfin Corp</a>U.S. real estate transactions fell 1.2% month-on-month in June, the largest monthly decline over the same period since records began in 2012, according to seasonally adjusted data from. Inventory reached an all-time low, selling on average within 14 days of listing, the fastest speed ever.</p><p>Remote work, combined with extremely low mortgage rates, has sent buyers flocking to American suburbs and affordable cities. The median home price rose 25% in June from a year earlier to a record $386,888.</p><p>\"We are entering a new phase in the housing market,\" Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in an announcement. \"Price increases are beyond what many buyers can afford.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d5a82b4786c64628f5a7379187ad40\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fed's Evans: More Progress on Jobs Before Cutdown</b></p><p>Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said Thursday that U.S. job growth was slower than he expected and that the job market needs more improvement before the Federal Reserve starts to reduce its support for the economy.</p><p>Evans said: \"Given that employment growth has been lower than I expected in recent months, I would say that we need to do more to reach the threshold of 'substantial further progress' in adjusting our monetary policy stance.\"</p><p>Evans said it would take \"more than a few months\" to determine the right timing for the downsizing.</p><p>On inflation, Evans said he was confident enough that high inflation would be temporary. If inflation looks more persistent, then the Fed may need to adjust its stance earlier.</p><p>Evans believes the U.S. will see substantial further progress by the end of the year, still believing the Fed will raise interest rates in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deb2be8133054345917ff3f2e7aca29e\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn Ark Fund to repeat dot-com bubble-era 'bull trap'</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Shawn Quigg of Cathie Wood's flagship ETF is showing a lot of bubbly nature, similar to the growth stock fund of 2000, and investors should consider shorting it through options.</p><p>The derivatives strategist believes a rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in the second half of the year could trigger<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>(symbol ARKK) fell. The fund has gained about 19% since mid-May.</p><p>\"Into a bull trap reversal,\" Quigg wrote in a client note Thursday. \"The potential yield rise could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK's decline, coupled with the large conventional tech stocks continuing to outperform disruptive tech stocks, driving ARKK into a selloff phase.\"</p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has already fallen more than 40 basis points from its recent high at the end of March to around 1.32%, helping to fuel ARKK's rally. Quigg believes this is a technical market that will reverse as the economy reopens trading to regain its footing for the rest of the year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-07-16/doc-ikqciyzk5721733.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-07-16/doc-ikqciyzk5721733.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151575910","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、鲍威尔再次被追问通胀问题 称美联储正关注风险\n\n\n2、El-Erian：美联储无视通胀火爆 将面临政策失误或市场意外风险\n\n\n3、央行数字货币或对加密货币构成竞争 比特币在这种担忧中加速下跌\n\n\n4、美国住宅销量下滑 买家争抢导致市场存量稀缺\n\n\n5、美联储埃文斯：在减码之前需在就业方面取得更多进展\n\n\n6、摩根大通策略师警告Ark Fund重蹈网络泡沫时代的“牛市陷阱”\n\n\n鲍威尔再次被追问通胀问题 称美联储正关注风险\n尽管通胀达到令人不安的水平，美联储主席鲍威尔还是连续第二天为保持政策宽松的立场辩护。\n他于周四对参议院银行业委员会表示：“系统经受的这个冲击与经济重启有关，并使通胀率远超2%，当然我们对此感到不安。”\n鲍威尔将当前价格上涨称为史上“独特”现象，并表示美联储正密切观察其关于通胀暂时高企的预期是否正确，通胀是否可能持续更久。\n“所以我们正努力了解基本情形及风险，”他表示。\n鲍威尔表示，迄今为止价格飙升的主要是二手车等有限领域，重申他预计这些上涨是暂时的。\n“这是暂时的，就这个角度而言，对此作出反应没有意义，”他说道。\n\nEl-Erian：美联储无视通胀火爆 将面临政策失误或市场意外风险\n安联首席经济顾问El-Erian发表专栏文章称，美国CPI和PPI双双走高是严重的事实。它表明，实际发生的通胀率正伴随着酝酿中的额外通胀率。这有悖于美联储一再认为通胀是暂时的观点，尤其是在基数效应已经基本淡出的情况下。\n本周的一个重要事件是美联储主席鲍威尔周三的国会听证会，当时他承认通胀一直高于美联储预期，并且持续时间更长。然而，在谈到政策影响时，他立即回到了经常重复的“暂时性”口头禅，以支持政策立场不变。纽约联邦储备银行行长John Williams周一传递了类似的信息，证实了三位最有影响力美联储官员中的两位--这也是市场最为关注的决策者--仍然倾向于维持超刺激性政策，尽管经济增速和通胀一再被低估。\nEl-Erian认为，美联储当前政策配置持续的时间越长，货币政策出现失误的风险就越大。而经济-政策脱节持续的时间越长，市场中的冒险行为就会越多，出现意外的风险也就越大。\n\n央行数字货币或对加密货币构成竞争 比特币在这种担忧中加速下跌\n加密货币和央行数字货币（CBDC）前景再度成为关注焦点。美联储主席鲍威尔在本周听证会上强调，需要以正确方式做这件事。与此同时，欧洲央行向数字货币迈出重大一步，批准数字欧元项目进入“调查阶段”，这可能最终使数字欧元在2021-2030年中期左右落地。\n“随着世界各地中央银行探讨数字货币的想法，投资者意识到该领域存在很多竞争。这可能会稀释目前使用的一些数字资产的估值，”MJP Wealth Advisors总裁 Brian Vendig表示。“投资者正在权衡很多因素，数字资产可能因其不稳定性而失去一些光芒。”\n央行开发数字货币的前景可能给加密货币带来压力，这个观点得到了其他人赞同。Hargreaves Lansdown高级投资和市场分析师 Susannah Streeter表示：“加密货币失去优势正值人们对各央行推出数字货币的影响抱有越来越多猜测。”\n\n美国住宅销量下滑 买家争抢导致市场存量稀缺\n在美国历史上竞争最激烈的房地产市场，销售开始停滞。\nRedfin Corp．的季节性因素调整后数据显示，美国6月份房产交易量环比下降1.2%，是2012年有记录以来最大同期月度降幅。库存达到历史最低，平均挂牌14天即售出，是有史以来最快速度。\n远程工作加上极低的抵押贷款利率，令大量买家涌向美国郊区和房价实惠的城市。6月房价中值较上年同期上涨25%，达到创纪录的386，888美元。\n“我们进入了房地产市场的新阶段，”Redfin首席经济学家Daryl Fairweather在一份公告中说。“价格上涨超出了许多买家的承受能力。”\n\n美联储埃文斯：在减码之前需在就业方面取得更多进展\n芝加哥联邦储备银行行长查尔斯-埃文斯（Charles Evans）周四表示，美国就业增长低于他的预期，在美联储开始减少对经济的支持之前，就业市场还需要更多的改善。\n埃文斯称：“鉴于最近几个月就业增长低于我的预期，我要说的是，我们还需要做更多的事情，才能达到调整货币政策立场的‘实质性的进一步进展’的门槛。”\n埃文斯表示，需要“几个月多”的时间来确定减码的合适时机。\n在通胀问题上，埃文斯表示，他有足够的信心，认为高通胀将是暂时的。如果通胀看起来更持久，那么美联储可能需要早些调整立场。\n埃文斯认为，美国将在年底前看到实质性的进一步进展，仍认为美联储将于2024年加息。\n\n摩根大通策略师警告Ark Fund重蹈网络泡沫时代的“牛市陷阱”\n摩根大通的Shawn Quigg认为，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF正在显示出很多泡沫性质，类似于2000年的增长股基金，投资者应考虑通过期权做空它。\n这位衍生品策略师认为，美国国债收益率下半年的上升可能会触发ARK Innovation ETF（代码ARKK）下跌。该基金自5月中旬以来已上涨约19%。\n“进入牛市陷阱逆转，”Quigg在周四的客户报告中写道。“潜在的收益率上升可能是加速ARKK下跌的催化剂，加上大型常规性科技股继续跑赢破坏性科技股，促使ARKK进入抛售阶段。”\n美国10年期国债收益率已经从3月底的近期高点下跌逾40个基点，至1.32%左右，帮助推动了ARKK的反弹。Quigg认为这是一个技术性行情，随着经济重开交易在今年余下时间里重新立足，上述行情将逆转。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147870589,"gmtCreate":1626353164641,"gmtModify":1703758460728,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147870589","repostId":"2151217519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151217519","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626315521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151217519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 10:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The window of the bull market is closing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151217519","media":"格隆汇","summary":"且行且珍惜","content":"<p>The chairman of the Federal Reserve has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>Economic data is constantly betting on the other side, though.</p><p>On July 13th, local time, the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in June increased by 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both greatly exceeding the market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, and at the same time setting the highest record since November 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even considering the low base caused by last year's pandemic, the deterioration in inflation data is still visible to the naked eye, with core CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices rising as much as 4.5% year-on-year. However, through the previous foreshadowing, the reaction of the capital market has become more and more flat. Last night, the three major US stock indexes only dropped slightly by about 0.3%, and the US debt and gold did not change much.</p><p>Whether markets continue to believe Powell's rhetoric or not, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing to stimulate the economy is increasingly fierce for the Fed.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>While it's too early to talk about rate hike, it's fitting to start talking about tapering.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>When will Taper, who has been shouting for months, come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at \"expectation adjustment\", and it releases signals to the market from time to time. Hawkish and dovish, and the wind can be released for a full year, giving investors enough time to prevent and hedge. After repeating it several times, more than half of the people gambling with policies have fallen, and the Fed's turn has been much smoother.</p><p>Since the U.S. CPI crossed the safe boundary of 2% in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will Taper its bond purchases or even rate hike within the year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, and short-term inflation can be tolerated until these two goals are completed, it is not ruled out that persistent excessive inflation will change the attitude of the FED.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Fed's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this. Whether it is necessary to take immediate action no longer depends on how big the inflationary pressure is, but how the Fed judges.</p><p>According to the monetary policy report released by the Federal Reserve on July 9th, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, and the surge in labor demand exceeds the recovery of labor supply; Supply chain bottlenecks have eased, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories suggest that supply chain pressures are still not small.</p><p>Regardless of the position of Fed officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four kinds. The inflation data for four consecutive months has constantly moved the expected turning point of the market forward. If the PPI data released next also greatly exceeds expectations, and the pressure on the production side continues to be transmitted to the consumer side, it will further deepen the market's worries, and the expectation of the withdrawal action will continue to advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the more accepted view is that the Fed will throw a taper signal at the annual symposium at Jackson Hole in August. It is expected that it will be mainly hinted and released. When will it land, the forecasts of Fed officials and institutions will be concentrated at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Before that, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is sure that the inflection point of global liquidity will eventually come.</p><p><b>At this juncture, the domestic central bank unexpectedly cut the RRR again, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trend, the reason makes sense.</b></p><p>Due to the large recovery poor in various countries in last year's epidemic, China's rapid recovery, and its huge and perfect manufacturing supply capacity, it received a wave of foreign trade dividends, and its rapid economic growth was due to a large number of overseas export orders. However, now, with the epidemic control and the improvement of vaccination rate in developed countries in the United States and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to flow back, and the foreign trade demand for China will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months show that while the global manufacturing PMI boom has strengthened, China's new export orders have dropped significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this background, the downward pressure on China's economy has become the consensus of all parties, and the currency has been loosened again, just to hedge this impact in advance.</p><p>However, in the past 10 years, the average interest rate spread between China and the United States was 133BP. In September last year, the interest rate spread between China and the United States was 235BP, but now it is only 155 BP. From this perspective, the space for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States starts to collect water, the flexibility space of monetary policy will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nowadays, the mismatch of monetary policies between China and the United States has caused new concerns in the market. How much room do we have to maneuver and deploy?</p><p>However, yesterday, Sun Guofeng, director of the monetary policy department of the central bank, expressed his views,<b>He believes that the discussion on the Fed's monetary policy shift will have less impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Ten years of pursuit of monetary independence, has it come true?</b></h3>We might as well look back at what has happened over the past 20 years.</p><p>After joining the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence between China and the United States has deepened, and everything seems to be developing in a bright direction. China's GDP growth rate has exceeded 10% year after year, becoming a veritable world's factory, and the United States has been able to continue to play finance and real estate.</p><p>But, in 2008, it all came to an abrupt end.</p><p>A severe financial crisis broke out in the United States, and it quickly swept the world. China also suffered deeply from it, and rushed to launch a \"four trillion\" rescue plan. This has triggered a \"crack\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what has gone wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>The United States believes that after China's accession to the WTO, it has removed its own manufacturing industry more recklessly, and the emptiness of the real economy has led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially finance, which is the root cause of the crisis. Therefore, Obama shouted the banner of the return of manufacturing industry.</p><p>China, on the other hand, has a more subtle attitude. The United States relies too much on the status of the US dollar, debt expansion and other ways to develop its economy, which determines that the cyclical fluctuation of the US dollar will be severe. However, the United States can use the world to hedge the fluctuation of the US dollar, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those deeply bound to the United States. The monetary policy can only be passively followed, and it has a good life when the US dollar expands, but when the US dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a violent economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed the WTO dividend for many years, and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy\". With the coming of the economic crisis, the demand in Europe and America declined rapidly, and the foreign trade plunged. Accompanied by the closure of a large number of export manufacturing industries and the rapid expansion of the unemployed population, this is the embodiment.</p><p><b>In a country as large and populous as China, stability is more important than anything else.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China has also started a series of adjustments, the most important of which is to go its own way. To put it more bluntly, it is to find a way to pull away from the lessons learned by over-binding the United States.</p><p>As for the specific practices, the belt and road initiative is one, infrastructure + real estate is one, and the shift from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is also one, and<b>The adjustment of monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to try to do foreign trade with some neighboring countries, directly using people's settlement, which promoted the rapid increase of international use of RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan. In 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, with the \"811 Exchange Reform\", RMB changed from a single peg to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving them corresponding weights, and forming a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, the changes of RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, so as to maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and form a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it is a shift from \"single anchor\" to \"multiple anchor\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a lot of prices. For example, after the \"811 exchange reform\", the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly, and coupled with the loopholes in foreign exchange control, countless enterprises took advantage of this loophole to constantly arbitrage and export overseas, and China lost 900 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the whole, the results are still great. At least, China has gradually shown its independence in the choice of monetary policy. This might be the confidence that Secretary Sun was talking about.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What does the mismatch of currencies between China and the United States bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered the rate hike cycle, and emerging economies were almost wiped out, and some countries were particularly tragic. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa and Turkey all dropped to record lows, and Brazil's GDP dropped the largest in history.</p><p><b>As the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the opportunity and took the initiative to defend, the depreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar remained at a low level in emerging markets, avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the United States and Europe tended to synchronize; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the rhythm of the People's Bank of China divorced from that of the United States and Europe, and it was one step ahead of the withdrawal and release of water.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held 9 joint rate hike, and the Federal Funds rate increased to 2.25%-2.50%. At this time, China is cutting interest rates. On March 1st, May 11th, June 28th and August 26th, 2015, the benchmark interest rate of one-year loans was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the benchmark interest rate of one-year deposits was also lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75% many times. The benchmark interest rates of other grades of loans and deposits and the interest rates of individual housing provident fund deposits and loans will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>During the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve once again released water, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches are not deliberate pursuits, but more decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it was necessary to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, through rapid epidemic prevention and control, export dividends replaced the old road of purely relying on monetary stimulus. This RRR cut also has the meaning of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely ignoring the Federal Reserve. After all, the locomotive of the global economy is still the United States, and it is precisely that we want to balance the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with problems such as RMB depreciation pressure and capital outflow if the Federal Reserve tightens the liquidity rhythm greatly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressure.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expected. Externally, facing the risk of export reduction, the monetary aspect needs to worry about the pressure brought by the Fed's currency inflection point, and the window of relatively loose liquidity is limited; Internally, the investment motivation is insufficient, and the effect of the internal circular economy driven by consumption with high hopes is not remarkable enough. Once the funds are tightened, many small and medium-sized enterprises will face the shortage of demand and funds like last year.</p><p>Under the combined action of internal and external pressures, the next action that the central bank is more likely to take on monetary policy may not be to relax liquidity or join the ranks of obvious tightening, but more likely to be total amount control, structural adjustment, directional guidance, strict control of the idling of supervision funds, and truly guide liquidity to where it really should go, such as small and medium-sized micro, people's livelihood economy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovation and Technology</a>Green economy, etc.</p><p>Now the state has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and people's consumption economy, and its kinetic energy is also very strong. From this, we can also imagine that any obstacles that affect the realization of this goal will continue to be suppressed and cleaned up, such as real estate speculation, antitrust, education, medical care and so on.</p><p>However, in either case, it may not be a very optimistic situation for the capital market.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>This thing of stock price depends on the industry in the long term, fundamentals in the medium term and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to now, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and Big A has also changed from general rise to differentiation.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the figure below-differentiation is happening. If the next currency is really tight, then the fourth quadrant-the capital market with mourning will probably repeat itself, but the extent is a question.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When investing, we should decide to stay or go with the worst expectations, and listen to the thunder in a silent place.</p><p>As for investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunity may not be running out.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The window of the bull market is closing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe window of the bull market is closing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 10:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The chairman of the Federal Reserve has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>Economic data is constantly betting on the other side, though.</p><p>On July 13th, local time, the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in June increased by 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both greatly exceeding the market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, and at the same time setting the highest record since November 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even considering the low base caused by last year's pandemic, the deterioration in inflation data is still visible to the naked eye, with core CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices rising as much as 4.5% year-on-year. However, through the previous foreshadowing, the reaction of the capital market has become more and more flat. Last night, the three major US stock indexes only dropped slightly by about 0.3%, and the US debt and gold did not change much.</p><p>Whether markets continue to believe Powell's rhetoric or not, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing to stimulate the economy is increasingly fierce for the Fed.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>While it's too early to talk about rate hike, it's fitting to start talking about tapering.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>When will Taper, who has been shouting for months, come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at \"expectation adjustment\", and it releases signals to the market from time to time. Hawkish and dovish, and the wind can be released for a full year, giving investors enough time to prevent and hedge. After repeating it several times, more than half of the people gambling with policies have fallen, and the Fed's turn has been much smoother.</p><p>Since the U.S. CPI crossed the safe boundary of 2% in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will Taper its bond purchases or even rate hike within the year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, and short-term inflation can be tolerated until these two goals are completed, it is not ruled out that persistent excessive inflation will change the attitude of the FED.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Fed's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this. Whether it is necessary to take immediate action no longer depends on how big the inflationary pressure is, but how the Fed judges.</p><p>According to the monetary policy report released by the Federal Reserve on July 9th, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, and the surge in labor demand exceeds the recovery of labor supply; Supply chain bottlenecks have eased, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories suggest that supply chain pressures are still not small.</p><p>Regardless of the position of Fed officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four kinds. The inflation data for four consecutive months has constantly moved the expected turning point of the market forward. If the PPI data released next also greatly exceeds expectations, and the pressure on the production side continues to be transmitted to the consumer side, it will further deepen the market's worries, and the expectation of the withdrawal action will continue to advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the more accepted view is that the Fed will throw a taper signal at the annual symposium at Jackson Hole in August. It is expected that it will be mainly hinted and released. When will it land, the forecasts of Fed officials and institutions will be concentrated at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Before that, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is sure that the inflection point of global liquidity will eventually come.</p><p><b>At this juncture, the domestic central bank unexpectedly cut the RRR again, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trend, the reason makes sense.</b></p><p>Due to the large recovery poor in various countries in last year's epidemic, China's rapid recovery, and its huge and perfect manufacturing supply capacity, it received a wave of foreign trade dividends, and its rapid economic growth was due to a large number of overseas export orders. However, now, with the epidemic control and the improvement of vaccination rate in developed countries in the United States and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to flow back, and the foreign trade demand for China will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months show that while the global manufacturing PMI boom has strengthened, China's new export orders have dropped significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this background, the downward pressure on China's economy has become the consensus of all parties, and the currency has been loosened again, just to hedge this impact in advance.</p><p>However, in the past 10 years, the average interest rate spread between China and the United States was 133BP. In September last year, the interest rate spread between China and the United States was 235BP, but now it is only 155 BP. From this perspective, the space for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States starts to collect water, the flexibility space of monetary policy will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nowadays, the mismatch of monetary policies between China and the United States has caused new concerns in the market. How much room do we have to maneuver and deploy?</p><p>However, yesterday, Sun Guofeng, director of the monetary policy department of the central bank, expressed his views,<b>He believes that the discussion on the Fed's monetary policy shift will have less impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Ten years of pursuit of monetary independence, has it come true?</b></h3>We might as well look back at what has happened over the past 20 years.</p><p>After joining the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence between China and the United States has deepened, and everything seems to be developing in a bright direction. China's GDP growth rate has exceeded 10% year after year, becoming a veritable world's factory, and the United States has been able to continue to play finance and real estate.</p><p>But, in 2008, it all came to an abrupt end.</p><p>A severe financial crisis broke out in the United States, and it quickly swept the world. China also suffered deeply from it, and rushed to launch a \"four trillion\" rescue plan. This has triggered a \"crack\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what has gone wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>The United States believes that after China's accession to the WTO, it has removed its own manufacturing industry more recklessly, and the emptiness of the real economy has led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially finance, which is the root cause of the crisis. Therefore, Obama shouted the banner of the return of manufacturing industry.</p><p>China, on the other hand, has a more subtle attitude. The United States relies too much on the status of the US dollar, debt expansion and other ways to develop its economy, which determines that the cyclical fluctuation of the US dollar will be severe. However, the United States can use the world to hedge the fluctuation of the US dollar, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those deeply bound to the United States. The monetary policy can only be passively followed, and it has a good life when the US dollar expands, but when the US dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a violent economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed the WTO dividend for many years, and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy\". With the coming of the economic crisis, the demand in Europe and America declined rapidly, and the foreign trade plunged. Accompanied by the closure of a large number of export manufacturing industries and the rapid expansion of the unemployed population, this is the embodiment.</p><p><b>In a country as large and populous as China, stability is more important than anything else.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China has also started a series of adjustments, the most important of which is to go its own way. To put it more bluntly, it is to find a way to pull away from the lessons learned by over-binding the United States.</p><p>As for the specific practices, the belt and road initiative is one, infrastructure + real estate is one, and the shift from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is also one, and<b>The adjustment of monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to try to do foreign trade with some neighboring countries, directly using people's settlement, which promoted the rapid increase of international use of RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan. In 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, with the \"811 Exchange Reform\", RMB changed from a single peg to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving them corresponding weights, and forming a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, the changes of RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, so as to maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and form a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it is a shift from \"single anchor\" to \"multiple anchor\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a lot of prices. For example, after the \"811 exchange reform\", the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly, and coupled with the loopholes in foreign exchange control, countless enterprises took advantage of this loophole to constantly arbitrage and export overseas, and China lost 900 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the whole, the results are still great. At least, China has gradually shown its independence in the choice of monetary policy. This might be the confidence that Secretary Sun was talking about.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What does the mismatch of currencies between China and the United States bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered the rate hike cycle, and emerging economies were almost wiped out, and some countries were particularly tragic. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa and Turkey all dropped to record lows, and Brazil's GDP dropped the largest in history.</p><p><b>As the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the opportunity and took the initiative to defend, the depreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar remained at a low level in emerging markets, avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the United States and Europe tended to synchronize; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the rhythm of the People's Bank of China divorced from that of the United States and Europe, and it was one step ahead of the withdrawal and release of water.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held 9 joint rate hike, and the Federal Funds rate increased to 2.25%-2.50%. At this time, China is cutting interest rates. On March 1st, May 11th, June 28th and August 26th, 2015, the benchmark interest rate of one-year loans was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the benchmark interest rate of one-year deposits was also lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75% many times. The benchmark interest rates of other grades of loans and deposits and the interest rates of individual housing provident fund deposits and loans will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>During the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve once again released water, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches are not deliberate pursuits, but more decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it was necessary to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, through rapid epidemic prevention and control, export dividends replaced the old road of purely relying on monetary stimulus. This RRR cut also has the meaning of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely ignoring the Federal Reserve. After all, the locomotive of the global economy is still the United States, and it is precisely that we want to balance the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with problems such as RMB depreciation pressure and capital outflow if the Federal Reserve tightens the liquidity rhythm greatly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressure.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expected. Externally, facing the risk of export reduction, the monetary aspect needs to worry about the pressure brought by the Fed's currency inflection point, and the window of relatively loose liquidity is limited; Internally, the investment motivation is insufficient, and the effect of the internal circular economy driven by consumption with high hopes is not remarkable enough. Once the funds are tightened, many small and medium-sized enterprises will face the shortage of demand and funds like last year.</p><p>Under the combined action of internal and external pressures, the next action that the central bank is more likely to take on monetary policy may not be to relax liquidity or join the ranks of obvious tightening, but more likely to be total amount control, structural adjustment, directional guidance, strict control of the idling of supervision funds, and truly guide liquidity to where it really should go, such as small and medium-sized micro, people's livelihood economy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovation and Technology</a>Green economy, etc.</p><p>Now the state has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and people's consumption economy, and its kinetic energy is also very strong. From this, we can also imagine that any obstacles that affect the realization of this goal will continue to be suppressed and cleaned up, such as real estate speculation, antitrust, education, medical care and so on.</p><p>However, in either case, it may not be a very optimistic situation for the capital market.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>This thing of stock price depends on the industry in the long term, fundamentals in the medium term and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to now, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and Big A has also changed from general rise to differentiation.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the figure below-differentiation is happening. If the next currency is really tight, then the fourth quadrant-the capital market with mourning will probably repeat itself, but the extent is a question.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When investing, we should decide to stay or go with the worst expectations, and listen to the thunder in a silent place.</p><p>As for investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunity may not be running out.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a97a16afe8e75d415a74db18ceb0a4c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2151217519","content_text":"美联储主席不止一次地告诉世界，通胀是暂时的。\n不过，经济数据正在不断押注另一边。\n当地时间7月13日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，6月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长5.4%，环比上涨0.9%，均大幅超出市场预期的5%、0.5%，同时创下1991年11月以来最高记录。\n\n即便考虑到去年疫情导致的低基数，通胀数据的恶化依然肉眼可见，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比涨幅高达4.5%。但是，通过前几次的铺垫，资本市场的反应越来越平淡，昨晚美股三大指数只微跌0.3%左右，美债、黄金异动都不大。\n无论市场是否继续相信鲍威尔的论调，对美联储来说，通胀压力和货币宽松刺激经济的矛盾日益激烈。\n正如联储官员戴利所说，虽然现在谈论加息还为时过早，但开始谈论缩减购债是合适的。\n\n\n1\n喊了几个月的Taper，啥时候来？\n\n\n美联储很擅长做“预期调节”这件事，不定时地向市场释放信号，鹰派的、鸽派的，放风可以放足一年，给投资者充足的时间做预防和对冲。反复几次下来，和政策对赌的人少了一大半，美联储的拐弯就平滑了许多。\n从3月份美国CPI跨过2%的安全边界之后，押注美联储在年内将缩减购债规模（Taper）甚至加息的投资者越来越多。虽然鲍威尔的货币政策框架锚定的是经济和就业，这两个目标未完成前，短期通胀是可以被容忍的，但不排除持续过高的通胀改变FED的态度。\n不过，短期内马上改变美联储货币政策显然不太现实，毕竟事态已经这样了，需不需要立即采取行动就不再取决于通胀压力有多大，而是美联储如何判断。\n根据7月9日美联储发布的货币政策报告，美国经济正在强劲复苏，但是劳动力市场存在结构性问题，劳动力需求的激增超过了劳动力供应的复苏；供应链瓶颈有所缓解，但历史高位的订单积压和历史低位的客户库存表明供应链压力依然不小。\n无论美联储官员的表态如何，市场的预期不外乎以下4种。连续4个月的通胀数据，不断将市场的预期拐点向前移。如果接下来公布的PPI数据同样大超预期，生产端的压力继续向消费端传导，将会进一步加深市场的担忧，退出动作的预期也会继续提前。\n\n当前，比较受认可的观点是，美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔年度专题研讨会上抛出缩减购债信号。预期会先以暗示、放风为主，具体何时落地，联储官员和机构的预测集中在今年年底和明年年初。在此之前，7月底的FOMC会议或许会透露出一些关键信息。\n短期上或许还存在诸多不确定性，但远期上，所有人都确信，全球流动性拐点终将到来。\n在这个节骨眼上，国内央行却意外地再度降准，释放出约1万亿的流动性，但再看看目前的经济数据趋势，理由是很能说得通的。\n由于去年的疫情中各国存在较大的恢复差，中国的快速恢复，且庞大而完善的制造业供应能力，吃到一波外贸红利，经济快速增长正是得益于大量的海外出口订单。但如今，随着美欧发达国家疫情控制、疫苗接种率的提升，经济社会恢复正常，订单开始回流，对中国的外贸需求将出现明显的下降，近几个月的经济数据显示，全球制造业PMI景气走强的同时，中国新出口订单明显回落。\n\n在这个背景下，中国经济下行压力加大已成各方共识，货币重新偏向宽松，正是为了提前对冲这种影响。\n但过去10年，中美平均利差为133BP，去年9月中美利差为235BP，而现在只有155个BP，从这个角度看，宽松的空间已经大大缩减，一旦美国开始收水，货币政策的弹性空间就会变得狭窄很多。\n\n如今，中美货币政策的错配，又引发市场新的担忧，我们还有多大腾挪调配的空间？\n不过，昨日央行货币政策司司长孙国峰发表观点，他认为关于美联储货币政策转向的讨论对中国货币政策、金融市场的影响较小。\n这个底气从何而来？\n2\n十年货币独立性追求，成真了吗？\n我们不妨回顾一下过去20年发生的事情。\n2001加入世贸之后，中国和美国经济相互依存度加深，一切貌似都朝着美好的方向发展，中国GDP增速连年超过10%，成了名副其实的世界工厂，美国也得以继续玩金融，玩地产。\n但是，2008年，一切戛然而止。\n美国爆发了严重的金融危机，并且迅速席卷全球，中国也深受其害，急冲冲启动“四万亿”的救市计划。由此引发的，是中美双方合作关系的“裂痕”，其实双方都在反思，过去8年到底出了什么问题。\n美国认为中国加入世贸后，自己因为更肆无忌惮地移走自家的制造业，实体经济的空虚，导致虚拟经济，尤其是金融的过度膨胀，是危机的根源，所以奥巴马才喊出制造业回归的旗号。\n而中国，态度则更加微妙。美国过分依赖美元地位、债务扩张等方式发展经济，决定了美元的周期波动会比较剧烈，但美国能够利用全球去对冲美元的波动，其他国家则没有这个实力，尤其是深度跟美国绑定的国家，货币政策只能被动跟随，在美元扩张时日子过得不错，但是美元收缩时，常常伴随着剧烈的经济下行。金融危机前，中国享受了多年的世贸红利，并演变为引以为傲的“出口导向型经济”，经济危机来临，欧美需求快速下滑，外贸重挫，伴随而来的是大量出口制造业倒闭，失业人口迅速膨胀，正是这种体现。\n中国这样体型庞大、人口众多的国家，稳定比什么都重要。\n所以，在稳住经济形势之后，中国也开始了一系列的调整，其中最重要的一条，就是走自己的路，说得再直白一点，就是想办法从过度绑定美国的前车之鉴中抽身。\n至于具体的做法，一带一路算一个，基建+地产算一个，由出口依赖转向刺激内需也算一个，还有货币政策的调整。\n2009年，中国开始尝试跟周边一些国家做对外贸易上，直接使用人民结算，推动人民币的国际使用量迅速增加。2009年，人民币的外贸结算量只有几十亿元，2015年，首次突破10万亿元。\n2015年，“811汇改”，人民币从单一盯住美元，改为选择若干种主要货币，赋予相应的权重，组成一个货币篮子，同时，以市场供求为基础，参考一篮子货币计算人民币多边汇率指数的变化，维护人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基础稳定，形成有管理的浮动汇率制。\n简而言之，就是从“单锚”转向了“多锚”。\n在这个过程中，中国付出了不少代价，如“811汇改”后，人民币汇率快速贬值，加上外汇管制上的漏洞，无数企业利用这种漏洞，不断地套汇输出海外，中国损失了9000亿美元外汇储备。\n\n但总体上，收效还是很大的，起码，中国在货币政策的选择上，逐渐体现出了自主的独立性。这可能就是孙司长所言的底气。\n3\n中美货币的错配，带来什么？\n2015年下半年，美联储进入加息周期，新兴经济体几乎全军覆没，部分国家更是格外惨烈，巴西、南非和土耳其货币均贬至纪录低位，巴西 GDP 创史上最大降幅。\n由于“811”汇改抢占先机、主动防御，人民币兑美元汇率的贬值幅度在新兴市场中居于低位，避免了系统性风险的爆发。在货币政策上，中国也表现出了比以往更多的独立性。2008年之前，中美欧货币政策趋于同步；金融危机爆发后，中国央行的节奏脱离美欧的步伐，收放水都领先一步。\n如美联储从2015年12月到2018年12月，美联储共同加息9次，联邦基金利率加至2.25%-2.50%。而此时的中国，却在降息，2015年3月1日、5月11日、6月28日、8月26日，一年期贷款基准利率下调均下调0.25个百分点，由5.6%将至4.6%，一年期存款基准利率也多次下调0.25个百分点，至1.75%；其他各档次贷款及存款基准利率、个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。\n2020年的新冠疫情，美联储再次大放水，但中美两国的经济周期和货币政策再次出现错配。\n\n两次的配错，并非刻意追求，更多的是中国出于自身的实际情况做出的决策，如2015年需要解决地方债务到期问题、房地产高库存问题，2020年则是通过快速的疫情防控，用出口红利代替了纯粹依靠货币刺激的老路。这次降准，也颇有2015年时的意思。\n不过，这种独立性并不等于完全不顾美联储，毕竟全球经济的火车头还是美国，恰恰是我们想在美联储和自身国情中取平衡。当然，中国接下来需要面对的是，如果美联储因为通胀压力大幅提前收紧流动性的节奏，人民币贬值压力和资本外流等问题上，该如何应对。\n下半年或许比我们预期要艰难许多，对外，面临出口缩减风险，货币方面又需要担心美联储货币拐点带来的压力，流动性相对宽松的窗口有限；对内，投资动力不足，寄与厚望的消费拉动的内循环经济成效还不够显著，一旦资金面收紧，很多中小微企业又会面临去年那样需求与资金面紧缺的局面。\n内外压力联合作用下，接下来央行对货币政策比较可能采取的操作可能不是放松流动性，或加入明显收紧行列，而更可能是总量控制，结构调整，定向引导，严控监管资金空转，真正把流动性引导至真正应该去的地方，比如中小微，民生经济，创新科技、绿色经济等方面。\n国家现在对提振国内企业活力、民众消费经济的目标很明确，动能也很强烈。由此，我们也可以想象得到，但凡对这个目标实现构成影响的阻碍，都会继续被压制和清理，比如炒房、反垄断、教育、医疗等等。\n但无论哪一种情况，对于资本市场面来说，可能都不会是一个很乐观的局面。\n4\n结语\n股价这个东西，长期看行业，中期看基本面，短期看流动性。\n去年3月到现在，我们经历了一波典型的从“经济向好，货币宽松”到“经济向好，货币收紧”的过程，大A也从普涨转变为分化抱团。\n下图第三象限所发生的事情--分化正在发生，如果接下来的货币真的向紧，那么第四象限--哀鸿遍野的资本市场也大概率会重演，只是程度有多大的问题。\n\n做投资，我们要不吝以最差的预期决定去留，于无声处听惊雷。\n至于那些上半年没能赚到钱的投资者，时间和机会可能并不多了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UCmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"CYB":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144339062,"gmtCreate":1626266815256,"gmtModify":1703756653274,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144339062","repostId":"2151593458","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151593458","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626228999,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151593458?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 10:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The time has come to test the Federal Reserve as U.S. inflation fever persists","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151593458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国6月物价再度爆表，美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚，以及货币政策将如何作出应对，成为市场关注的焦点。北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示，美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值，多项数据创新高。今年以来，美国通胀节节走高，但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”，随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求，通胀将消退。当地时间周三和周四，美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。","content":"<p>In June, prices in the United States exploded again. Whether the Federal Reserve's \"temporary inflation theory\" can still stand and how monetary policy will respond has become the focus of market attention.</p><p>According to the data released on Tuesday evening, Beijing time, the CPI and core CPI in the United States in June were higher than expected and previous values month-on-month and year-on-year, and many data reached record highs. Among them, CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, the highest increase since August 2008, well above the 5% increase in May and the 4.9% increase previously predicted by economists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c1b19fafe4fccf8df811ab9531e0be\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p>Industries directly affected by the pandemic saw the biggest price increases, with travel-related expenses such as airfares soaring, and semiconductor shortages also causing used used car prices to soar. Used car prices rose 10.5% month-over-month in June, contributing a third of last month's CPI jump, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p><p>After the data was released, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's rate hike rose sharply, the yield of U.S. bonds jumped intraday, and the yield curve flattened. Under the threat of inflation, the US dollar further strengthened, approaching a three-month high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e83a31c11d1be5a229daf643f2d3ae\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Challenges for the Fed</h2>U.S. inflation has been steadily higher this year, but the Federal Reserve has insisted that price increases are only \"temporary\" and that inflation will subside as pandemic lockdowns ease further and supply catches up with pent-up demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce1f249aafa91beb78c3bda811d915d\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed predicted that its favored core measure of inflation would rise 3% this year and fall back to 2.1% in 2022.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve last month released a hawkish signal that surprised the market, hinting at two rate hike in 2023. The minutes of the meeting show that the Fed has started to discuss Taper matter internally, but no consensus can be reached, and the discussion will continue in the future.</p><p>But Tuesday's unexpectedly high inflation data could put pressure on the Fed to consider reducing asset purchases at a faster pace than previously anticipated, slowing monetary stimulus.</p><p>Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Tuesday that with the U.S. economy growing at a 7% rate and the pandemic getting better and better contained, it is now time to remove the Fed's stimulus measures. Bullard has long been known as a \"dovish\", and his hawkish remarks have attracted high attention in the market.</p><p>But President of the New York Fed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>On Monday, the U.S. economy has not yet met the conditions for the Federal Reserve to reduce the size of asset purchases. San Francisco Fed President Daly also warned last Friday that due to the continued spread of the Delta variant, exiting the stimulus plan too early will pose great risks.</p><p>On Wednesday and Thursday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be questioned by members of Congress. Investors will pay close attention to whether Powell will release a signal to start discussing tapering asset purchases at the July Fed meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Netherlands International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist at Group (ING), said there appears to be no reason for the Fed to proceed with its quantitative easing plan to buy $120 billion in assets a month, and we will look for hints about the impending taper from Powell's testimony, as well as from the Jackson Hole meeting in August.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>If the Fed sticks to its average inflation target, making the timing of rate hike exceed market expectations, it could mean increased interest rate volatility in the future, analysts wrote in a note Tuesday.</p><p>Wells Fargo analysts pointed out that the Fed will face more challenges in communication in the future. On the one hand, it hopes to continue to be patient; on the other hand, the market does not seem to \"buy\" the Fed's new strategy of treating inflation. These contradictions should aggravate the future volatility of the macro market.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The time has come to test the Federal Reserve as U.S. inflation fever persists</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe time has come to test the Federal Reserve as U.S. inflation fever persists\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In June, prices in the United States exploded again. Whether the Federal Reserve's \"temporary inflation theory\" can still stand and how monetary policy will respond has become the focus of market attention.</p><p>According to the data released on Tuesday evening, Beijing time, the CPI and core CPI in the United States in June were higher than expected and previous values month-on-month and year-on-year, and many data reached record highs. Among them, CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, the highest increase since August 2008, well above the 5% increase in May and the 4.9% increase previously predicted by economists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c1b19fafe4fccf8df811ab9531e0be\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p>Industries directly affected by the pandemic saw the biggest price increases, with travel-related expenses such as airfares soaring, and semiconductor shortages also causing used used car prices to soar. Used car prices rose 10.5% month-over-month in June, contributing a third of last month's CPI jump, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p><p>After the data was released, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's rate hike rose sharply, the yield of U.S. bonds jumped intraday, and the yield curve flattened. Under the threat of inflation, the US dollar further strengthened, approaching a three-month high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e83a31c11d1be5a229daf643f2d3ae\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Challenges for the Fed</h2>U.S. inflation has been steadily higher this year, but the Federal Reserve has insisted that price increases are only \"temporary\" and that inflation will subside as pandemic lockdowns ease further and supply catches up with pent-up demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce1f249aafa91beb78c3bda811d915d\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed predicted that its favored core measure of inflation would rise 3% this year and fall back to 2.1% in 2022.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve last month released a hawkish signal that surprised the market, hinting at two rate hike in 2023. The minutes of the meeting show that the Fed has started to discuss Taper matter internally, but no consensus can be reached, and the discussion will continue in the future.</p><p>But Tuesday's unexpectedly high inflation data could put pressure on the Fed to consider reducing asset purchases at a faster pace than previously anticipated, slowing monetary stimulus.</p><p>Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Tuesday that with the U.S. economy growing at a 7% rate and the pandemic getting better and better contained, it is now time to remove the Fed's stimulus measures. Bullard has long been known as a \"dovish\", and his hawkish remarks have attracted high attention in the market.</p><p>But President of the New York Fed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>On Monday, the U.S. economy has not yet met the conditions for the Federal Reserve to reduce the size of asset purchases. San Francisco Fed President Daly also warned last Friday that due to the continued spread of the Delta variant, exiting the stimulus plan too early will pose great risks.</p><p>On Wednesday and Thursday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be questioned by members of Congress. Investors will pay close attention to whether Powell will release a signal to start discussing tapering asset purchases at the July Fed meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Netherlands International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist at Group (ING), said there appears to be no reason for the Fed to proceed with its quantitative easing plan to buy $120 billion in assets a month, and we will look for hints about the impending taper from Powell's testimony, as well as from the Jackson Hole meeting in August.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>If the Fed sticks to its average inflation target, making the timing of rate hike exceed market expectations, it could mean increased interest rate volatility in the future, analysts wrote in a note Tuesday.</p><p>Wells Fargo analysts pointed out that the Fed will face more challenges in communication in the future. On the one hand, it hopes to continue to be patient; on the other hand, the market does not seem to \"buy\" the Fed's new strategy of treating inflation. These contradictions should aggravate the future volatility of the macro market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635336\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd1549a90968778a7afdc56cd660b1b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635336","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151593458","content_text":"美国6月物价再度爆表，美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚，以及货币政策将如何作出应对，成为市场关注的焦点。\n北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示，美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值，多项数据创新高。其中CPI同比上涨5.4%，创下2008年8月以来的最高涨幅，远高于5月份的5%和经济学家此前预测的4.9%的涨幅。\n\n（图片来源：Zerohedge）\n受疫情直接影响的行业的价格涨幅最大，机票等差旅相关费用飙升，半导体短缺也导致二手车价格飙升。美国劳工统计局的数据显示，6月二手车价格环比上涨了10.5%，贡献了上个月CPI上涨的三分之一涨幅。\n数据公布后，市场对美联储加息预期陡升，美债收益率盘中跃升，收益率曲线趋平。通胀威胁下，美元进一步走强，逼近三个月来高位。\n\n（图片来源：Zerohedge）\n美联储面临的挑战\n今年以来，美国通胀节节走高，但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”，随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求，通胀将消退。\n\n在6月的FOMC会议上，美联储预测，其青睐的核心通胀指标今年将上升3%，2022年将回落至2.1%。\n货币政策方面，美联储上月释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，暗示2023年会有两次加息。会议纪要显示，美联储内部已经开始讨论Taper事宜，不过无法达成共识，未来将继续讨论。\n但周二意外高企的通胀数据可能会给美联储带来压力，迫使其考虑以比此前预期更快的速度减少资产购买，从而放缓货币刺激。\n美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德周二表示，随着美国经济以7%的速度增长，以及疫情得到越来越好的控制，现在是取消美联储的刺激措施了。布拉德一直以来以“鸽派”著称，他的鹰派言论引发了市场高度关注。\n但纽约联储行长威廉姆斯周一称，美国经济尚未达到美联储减少资产购买规模的条件。旧金山联储总裁戴利也在上周五警告，由于Delta变种毒株持续蔓延，过早退出刺激计划将造成极大的风险。\n当地时间周三和周四，美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。投资者将密切关注鲍威尔会否释放在7月美联储会议上开始讨论缩减资产购买规模的信号。\n荷兰国际集团(ING)首席国际经济学家James Knightley表示，美联储似乎没有理由继续每月购买1200亿美元资产的量化宽松计划，我们将从鲍威尔的证词以及8月杰克逊霍尔会议上寻找有关即将缩减规模的暗示。\n富国银行分析们在周二的一份报告中写道，如果美联储坚守平均通胀目标，使得加息的时点超过市场预期，那么这可能意味着未来利率波动将加剧。\n富国分析师们指出，未来美联储在沟通方面将面临更多挑战，一方面它希望能够继续保持耐心，另一方面市场对美联储对待通胀的新策略似乎并不“买账”，这些矛盾应该会加剧宏观市场未来的波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142725901,"gmtCreate":1626179065903,"gmtModify":1703754875255,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142725901","repostId":"1170101093","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142722861,"gmtCreate":1626179038653,"gmtModify":1703754873789,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142722861","repostId":"1126789765","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126789765","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1626133747,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126789765?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 07:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How does the Fed take a stand at its July meeting? Follow the CPI Tonight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126789765","media":"Wind万得","summary":"今晚美国公布的CPI数据至关重要，这个数据在一定程度上将显示近期的价格大幅上涨是一个暂时现象，还是通胀压力会更持久。如果今晚通胀超市场预期，那么美联储提前收紧预期可能又会卷土重来；反之市场对美联储收紧的恐慌会继续减弱。市场预计6月份CPI环比增幅将从5月份的0.6%和4月份的0.8%降至0.5%，并预计CPI年率将从5月份的5%降至4.9%。美联储的通胀目标是基于美国商务部的个人消费支出价格指数，该指数往往略低于CPI。","content":"<p>The CPI data released tonight in the United States is crucial. This data will show to some extent whether the recent sharp price increase is a temporary phenomenon or whether inflationary pressures will be more persistent. If inflation exceeds market expectations tonight, then the Fed's early tightening expectations may come back again; On the contrary, the market's panic about the Fed's tightening will continue to wane.</p><p>The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) has nearly tripled in the past six months, rising from 1.7% in January to 5% in May. Core inflation rose to 3.8% from 1.4%. The market expects the month-over-month CPI increase to fall to 0.5% in June from 0.6% in May and 0.8% in April, and expects the annual CPI rate to fall to 4.9% from 5% in May.</p><p>The Fed has successfully reduced market sensitivity to inflation over the past few months. The effort began last September when the Fed adopted an average inflation rate for future policy guidance and insisted that the current surge was temporary. But there is an important and unresolved question, how much inflation will the economic problems caused by the pandemic create? The answer to this question may be difficult to tell until the base effect completely disappears in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Markets Some economists believe a strong post-pandemic economic recovery will drive prices up quickly for some time. They argue that markets should brace themselves for the highest levels of inflation in decades. If economists' forecasts are correct, Fed officials may have to raise interest rates earlier or more than they expected to control inflation.</p><p>Some surveys show that economists believe that inflation will grow at an average annual rate of 2.58% from 2021 to 2023, which will reach 1993 levels. \"We are now in a transition phase,\" said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics LLC. \"We are transitioning to a period where inflation and interest rates have been higher than in the past 20 years.\"</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said: \"Expect inflation to spike longer than the Fed previously anticipated.\"\"The Fed is now likely to raise interest rates in the first half of 2023, although some Fed officials will act as soon as possible.\"</p><p>Some analysts also worry that the Fed may be moving too slowly. \"The danger is that monetary authorities are not keeping up,\" said KevinSwift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council. \"I'm not saying hyperinflation is coming, just that a lot happened last year and the overall price growth trend is faster than it has been in the past five or 10 years.\"</p><p>As the economic recovery accelerated, the last U.S. consumer price index released in May continued to rise rapidly, surging 5% from a year earlier to record the highest annual inflation rate in nearly 13 years, also reflecting surging demand and labor and material shortages.</p><p>The price increases reflect strong consumer demand as widespread vaccinations, easing business restrictions, trillions of dollars in federal pandemic relief packages and ample household savings fuel. Seasonally adjusted, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.4% on an annualized basis in the first quarter. Economists expect the U.S. economy to grow at an annual rate of 8.1 percent in the second quarter, the best year since the early 1980s.</p><p>Policymakers are also paying close attention to recent inflation figures. Price pressures were very weak during a year at the height of the pandemic. Whether the rise in inflation is only temporary is a key question for the U.S. economy and financial markets as the Federal Reserve and other policymakers continue to take fiscal and monetary policy measures to support the economy.</p><p>The Fed still expects inflation to rise temporarily this year. A sustained sharp rise in inflation could force the central bank to tighten its easy monetary policy early or to respond more aggressively later in order to meet its 2% average inflation target.</p><p>The Fed's inflation target is based on the U.S. Commerce Department's Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, which tends to be slightly below the CPI. The Fed has said it will keep interest rates near zero until personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation reaches an average of 2% and full employment is achieved.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How does the Fed take a stand at its July meeting? Follow the CPI Tonight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow does the Fed take a stand at its July meeting? Follow the CPI Tonight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-13 07:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The CPI data released tonight in the United States is crucial. This data will show to some extent whether the recent sharp price increase is a temporary phenomenon or whether inflationary pressures will be more persistent. If inflation exceeds market expectations tonight, then the Fed's early tightening expectations may come back again; On the contrary, the market's panic about the Fed's tightening will continue to wane.</p><p>The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) has nearly tripled in the past six months, rising from 1.7% in January to 5% in May. Core inflation rose to 3.8% from 1.4%. The market expects the month-over-month CPI increase to fall to 0.5% in June from 0.6% in May and 0.8% in April, and expects the annual CPI rate to fall to 4.9% from 5% in May.</p><p>The Fed has successfully reduced market sensitivity to inflation over the past few months. The effort began last September when the Fed adopted an average inflation rate for future policy guidance and insisted that the current surge was temporary. But there is an important and unresolved question, how much inflation will the economic problems caused by the pandemic create? The answer to this question may be difficult to tell until the base effect completely disappears in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Markets Some economists believe a strong post-pandemic economic recovery will drive prices up quickly for some time. They argue that markets should brace themselves for the highest levels of inflation in decades. If economists' forecasts are correct, Fed officials may have to raise interest rates earlier or more than they expected to control inflation.</p><p>Some surveys show that economists believe that inflation will grow at an average annual rate of 2.58% from 2021 to 2023, which will reach 1993 levels. \"We are now in a transition phase,\" said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics LLC. \"We are transitioning to a period where inflation and interest rates have been higher than in the past 20 years.\"</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said: \"Expect inflation to spike longer than the Fed previously anticipated.\"\"The Fed is now likely to raise interest rates in the first half of 2023, although some Fed officials will act as soon as possible.\"</p><p>Some analysts also worry that the Fed may be moving too slowly. \"The danger is that monetary authorities are not keeping up,\" said KevinSwift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council. \"I'm not saying hyperinflation is coming, just that a lot happened last year and the overall price growth trend is faster than it has been in the past five or 10 years.\"</p><p>As the economic recovery accelerated, the last U.S. consumer price index released in May continued to rise rapidly, surging 5% from a year earlier to record the highest annual inflation rate in nearly 13 years, also reflecting surging demand and labor and material shortages.</p><p>The price increases reflect strong consumer demand as widespread vaccinations, easing business restrictions, trillions of dollars in federal pandemic relief packages and ample household savings fuel. Seasonally adjusted, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.4% on an annualized basis in the first quarter. Economists expect the U.S. economy to grow at an annual rate of 8.1 percent in the second quarter, the best year since the early 1980s.</p><p>Policymakers are also paying close attention to recent inflation figures. Price pressures were very weak during a year at the height of the pandemic. Whether the rise in inflation is only temporary is a key question for the U.S. economy and financial markets as the Federal Reserve and other policymakers continue to take fiscal and monetary policy measures to support the economy.</p><p>The Fed still expects inflation to rise temporarily this year. A sustained sharp rise in inflation could force the central bank to tighten its easy monetary policy early or to respond more aggressively later in order to meet its 2% average inflation target.</p><p>The Fed's inflation target is based on the U.S. Commerce Department's Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, which tends to be slightly below the CPI. The Fed has said it will keep interest rates near zero until personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation reaches an average of 2% and full employment is achieved.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126789765","content_text":"今晚美国公布的CPI数据至关重要，这个数据在一定程度上将显示近期的价格大幅上涨是一个暂时现象，还是通胀压力会更持久。如果今晚通胀超市场预期，那么美联储提前收紧预期可能又会卷土重来；反之市场对美联储收紧的恐慌会继续减弱。\n在过去的六个月里，美国消费者价格指数(CPI)几乎翻了三倍，从一月份的1.7%上升到五月份的5%。核心通胀从1.4%上升到3.8%。市场预计6月份CPI环比增幅将从5月份的0.6%和4月份的0.8%降至0.5%，并预计CPI年率将从5月份的5%降至4.9%。\n过去几个月，美联储成功地降低了市场对通胀的敏感性。这一努力始于去年9月美联储对未来政策引导采用了平均通胀率，并坚持认为当前的飙升是暂时的。但是有一个重要且尚未解决的问题是，疫情导致的经济问题造成会造成多少通胀?这个问题的答案在第四季度基数效应完全消失之前也许很难判断。\n市场一些经济学家认为疫情后强劲的经济复苏将在一段时间内推动物价快速上涨。他们认为，市场应该做好准备，迎接几十年来最高的通胀水平。如果经济学家的预测是正确的，美联储官员可能不得不提前或超过他们预期的上调利率，以控制通胀。\n一些调查显示经济学家认为从2021年到2023年通胀平均年增长率为2.58%，这个水平将达到1993年的水平。\"我们现在正处于一个过渡阶段，\" Naroff Economics LLC首席经济学家Joel Naroff说，\"我们正过渡到通胀率和利率高于过去20年的时期。\"\nGrant Thornton首席经济学家黛安•斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示:“预计通胀飙升的时间会比美联储此前预计的更长。”“美联储现在可能会在2023年上半年加息，尽管一些美联储官员会尽快采取行动。”\n一些分析师也担心美联储的行动可能过于缓慢。American Chemistry Council首席经济学家凯文•斯威夫特(KevinSwift)表示:“危险在于，货币当局跟不上形势。”“我并不是说恶性通货膨胀即将到来，只是说去年发生了很多事情，整体价格的增长趋势比过去5年或10年更快。”\n随着经济复苏的加快，上次公布的美国5月份消费者价格指数继续快速上涨，较上年同期飙升5%，创下近13年来的最高年通胀率，也反映出需求激增以及劳动力和材料短缺。\n价格上涨反映出，随着广泛接种疫苗、放宽商业限制、数万亿美元的联邦大流行救援计划和充足的家庭储蓄推动了强劲的消费者需求。经季节性因素调整后，美国第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算增长6.4%。经济学家预计，第二季度美国经济折合成年率将增长8.1%，这将是上世纪80年代初以来经济增长最好的一年。\n政策制定者也非常关注最近的通胀数据。在疫情最严重时期的一年里，价格压力非常疲弱。随着美联储和其它一些政策制定者继续采取财政和货币政策措施支持经济后，通胀上升是否只是暂时的，是美国经济和金融市场的一个关键问题。\n美联储预计目前还是预计今年通货膨胀率将暂时上升。通货膨胀率的持续大幅上升可能迫使央行提前收紧其宽松货币政策，或者晚些时候采取更激进的应对措施，以实现2%的平均通货膨胀目标。\n美联储的通胀目标是基于美国商务部的个人消费支出价格指数，该指数往往略低于CPI。美联储曾表示，在个人消费支出(PCE)通胀率达到平均2%并实现充分就业之前，它将把利率维持在接近于零的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146492060,"gmtCreate":1626095497250,"gmtModify":1703753227580,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146492060","repostId":"2150658399","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150658399","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626059187,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150658399?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-12 11:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Buy every earnings season\" is afraid of failure! U.S. Stocks Outlook Encounters 4 Hidden Worry Traps","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150658399","media":"FX168","summary":"美国股市的财报季在本周拉开序幕，将由摩根大通等银行股率先起跑。尽管美股三大指数都在上周末前创新高，而且上市企业获利预计将增长60%，但投资者目前更聚焦于4大隐忧陷阱，分别是企业获利增长攀峰、经济增长可","content":"<p>Earnings season for U.S. stocks kicked off this week and will be led by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Wait for bank stocks to take the lead. Although the three major U.S. stock indexes all reached record highs before last weekend, and the profits of listed companies are expected to increase by 60%, investors are currently more focused on four hidden worries, namely, the peak of corporate profit growth, the possible slowdown of economic growth, the raging variant strains and the Fed's tendency to reduce the scale of easing. Since last year, the iron law of buying every earnings season may fail, and investment institutions have begun to increase the proportion of cash.</p><p>JPMorgan vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The earnings report of the last quarter will be announced on the 13th, symbolizing the start of the earnings season of U.S. stocks. According to Fact Set data, analysts predict that profits of S&P 500 companies will surge by 64% in the second quarter of this year compared with the same period last year, the highest in more than 10 years. With U.S. stock prices already high and consumer prices rising simultaneously, investors will pay attention to executives' views on profit prospects and profits, and how to solve the current shortage of labor.</p><p>Let's first take a look at what Bloomberg Intelligence points out. During the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. stock investors are winners as long as they buy when the earnings season comes. Earlier, in the six weeks after the start of earnings season, the S&P 500 rose an average of 4.6%. However, analysts mentioned that the economic expansion cycle has reached its peak, which may lead to the peak of corporate profit growth. Investors are therefore worried that the 15-month policy bull market may be discouraged. Historical experience shows that when corporate profits reach their peak, the stock market will also underperform.</p><p>The semi-annual report of the US economy submitted by the Federal Reserve to Congress shows that some raw material shortages and labor shortages are hindering this year's strong economic rebound and prompting temporary inflation. The report also mentioned that progress in vaccination has allowed the economy to recover and grow strongly, but the shortage of raw material input and labor shortage continue to inhibit the restart of many commercial activities.</p><p>The report also revealed the next signal of Fed officials' recent economic development decisions. The Federal Reserve has consistently set interest rates near zero since the COVID pandemic took off in the U.S. in March 2020. The Federal Reserve has indicated that it expects interest rates to remain unchanged until it determines that the inflation rate can be maintained within the 2% target and the labor market returns to the so-called \"full employment\".</p><p>According to the report released by the Federal Reserve, the process of U.S. economic recovery may face obstacles in the coming months, and transient inflation will still be the focus of investors' attention. Growth is likely to slow, and the most obvious signal of the weakening is that the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States has continued to decline in recent weeks, prompting banks to lose their original attractiveness, and growth stocks such as technology stocks are expected to gain popularity again.</p><p>After the end of the second quarter financial report, analysts expect that the profit growth of enterprises will slow down in the next three quarters, and it is expected that the profit growth rate will not reach 5% at the beginning of next year. In view of the weakening of the policy support of the US government, the low base period effect last year will also come to an end.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. stock strategist, said that at present, the average P/E ratio of U.S. stocks has reached the highest point since the dot-com bubble, and its tolerance for negative news is very weak. Coupled with the fact that the U.S. President Biden administration is preparing to raise the corporate tax rate, and the rising wages and raw material costs, the impact on the net profit of enterprises is not small.</p><p>In a statement in May, the U.S. Treasury Department mentioned that it was working with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Group of Twenty (G20) to propose a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15% at the meeting of international tax negotiations to end competition to attract companies through the lowest tax rate, which ultimately erodes government gains. The proposal brings the U.S. closer to the 12.5 percent minimum tax rate discussed by the OECD before the U.S. re-engages in negotiations.</p><p>Tobias Levkovich added that at present, the US stock market is too complacent. Many investors believe that the stock market will smoothly shift from policy to performance, but this is still uncertain. Declining corporate profits, rising inflation worries, the withdrawal of the Federal Reserve, government tax increases and many other negative things will continue to follow.</p><p>Investors will also keep an eye on the June U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to be released on July 14th, and is expected to rise 5% annually. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also attend the hearing on the same day to release the report of the first half of monetary policy, and his speech on inflation and economic outlook will also be the driving factor.</p><p>Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, mentioned that the S&P 500 index has risen far faster than the growth rate of corporate earnings. Since the beginning of this year, the index has risen by nearly 16%, while the estimated profit growth rates of enterprises this year and next year are 14% and 10% respectively. He believes that the surplus needs to grow 14% in 2022, lowering the estimated P/E ratio to 18 times for U.S. stocks to be reasonable.</p><p>In terms of the COVID-19 epidemic, the United States has encountered a new wave of variant strains, especially the Delta variant strain originally discovered in India. The Centers for Disease Control and Control (CDC) said it has listed the Delta variant as the dominant virus in the United States, accounting for more than 50% of confirmed cases. American Pharmaceuticals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(Pfizer) and its German partner BioNTech announced that they plan to apply to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for authorization to receive an additional third dose of vaccine in August, saying that receiving the third dose of vaccine within 12 months can greatly improve immunity, and It can also help to fight the highly contagious Indian Delta variant strain.</p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Buy every earnings season\" is afraid of failure! U.S. Stocks Outlook Encounters 4 Hidden Worry Traps</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Buy every earnings season\" is afraid of failure! U.S. Stocks Outlook Encounters 4 Hidden Worry Traps\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earnings season for U.S. stocks kicked off this week and will be led by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Wait for bank stocks to take the lead. Although the three major U.S. stock indexes all reached record highs before last weekend, and the profits of listed companies are expected to increase by 60%, investors are currently more focused on four hidden worries, namely, the peak of corporate profit growth, the possible slowdown of economic growth, the raging variant strains and the Fed's tendency to reduce the scale of easing. Since last year, the iron law of buying every earnings season may fail, and investment institutions have begun to increase the proportion of cash.</p><p>JPMorgan vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The earnings report of the last quarter will be announced on the 13th, symbolizing the start of the earnings season of U.S. stocks. According to Fact Set data, analysts predict that profits of S&P 500 companies will surge by 64% in the second quarter of this year compared with the same period last year, the highest in more than 10 years. With U.S. stock prices already high and consumer prices rising simultaneously, investors will pay attention to executives' views on profit prospects and profits, and how to solve the current shortage of labor.</p><p>Let's first take a look at what Bloomberg Intelligence points out. During the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. stock investors are winners as long as they buy when the earnings season comes. Earlier, in the six weeks after the start of earnings season, the S&P 500 rose an average of 4.6%. However, analysts mentioned that the economic expansion cycle has reached its peak, which may lead to the peak of corporate profit growth. Investors are therefore worried that the 15-month policy bull market may be discouraged. Historical experience shows that when corporate profits reach their peak, the stock market will also underperform.</p><p>The semi-annual report of the US economy submitted by the Federal Reserve to Congress shows that some raw material shortages and labor shortages are hindering this year's strong economic rebound and prompting temporary inflation. The report also mentioned that progress in vaccination has allowed the economy to recover and grow strongly, but the shortage of raw material input and labor shortage continue to inhibit the restart of many commercial activities.</p><p>The report also revealed the next signal of Fed officials' recent economic development decisions. The Federal Reserve has consistently set interest rates near zero since the COVID pandemic took off in the U.S. in March 2020. The Federal Reserve has indicated that it expects interest rates to remain unchanged until it determines that the inflation rate can be maintained within the 2% target and the labor market returns to the so-called \"full employment\".</p><p>According to the report released by the Federal Reserve, the process of U.S. economic recovery may face obstacles in the coming months, and transient inflation will still be the focus of investors' attention. Growth is likely to slow, and the most obvious signal of the weakening is that the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States has continued to decline in recent weeks, prompting banks to lose their original attractiveness, and growth stocks such as technology stocks are expected to gain popularity again.</p><p>After the end of the second quarter financial report, analysts expect that the profit growth of enterprises will slow down in the next three quarters, and it is expected that the profit growth rate will not reach 5% at the beginning of next year. In view of the weakening of the policy support of the US government, the low base period effect last year will also come to an end.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. stock strategist, said that at present, the average P/E ratio of U.S. stocks has reached the highest point since the dot-com bubble, and its tolerance for negative news is very weak. Coupled with the fact that the U.S. President Biden administration is preparing to raise the corporate tax rate, and the rising wages and raw material costs, the impact on the net profit of enterprises is not small.</p><p>In a statement in May, the U.S. Treasury Department mentioned that it was working with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Group of Twenty (G20) to propose a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15% at the meeting of international tax negotiations to end competition to attract companies through the lowest tax rate, which ultimately erodes government gains. The proposal brings the U.S. closer to the 12.5 percent minimum tax rate discussed by the OECD before the U.S. re-engages in negotiations.</p><p>Tobias Levkovich added that at present, the US stock market is too complacent. Many investors believe that the stock market will smoothly shift from policy to performance, but this is still uncertain. Declining corporate profits, rising inflation worries, the withdrawal of the Federal Reserve, government tax increases and many other negative things will continue to follow.</p><p>Investors will also keep an eye on the June U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to be released on July 14th, and is expected to rise 5% annually. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also attend the hearing on the same day to release the report of the first half of monetary policy, and his speech on inflation and economic outlook will also be the driving factor.</p><p>Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, mentioned that the S&P 500 index has risen far faster than the growth rate of corporate earnings. Since the beginning of this year, the index has risen by nearly 16%, while the estimated profit growth rates of enterprises this year and next year are 14% and 10% respectively. He believes that the surplus needs to grow 14% in 2022, lowering the estimated P/E ratio to 18 times for U.S. stocks to be reasonable.</p><p>In terms of the COVID-19 epidemic, the United States has encountered a new wave of variant strains, especially the Delta variant strain originally discovered in India. The Centers for Disease Control and Control (CDC) said it has listed the Delta variant as the dominant virus in the United States, accounting for more than 50% of confirmed cases. American Pharmaceuticals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(Pfizer) and its German partner BioNTech announced that they plan to apply to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for authorization to receive an additional third dose of vaccine in August, saying that receiving the third dose of vaccine within 12 months can greatly improve immunity, and It can also help to fight the highly contagious Indian Delta variant strain.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.fx168.com/usstock/2107/5185033.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0da219c302a7bbcc8785c7a4851f3ad7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168.com/usstock/2107/5185033.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150658399","content_text":"美国股市的财报季在本周拉开序幕，将由摩根大通等银行股率先起跑。尽管美股三大指数都在上周末前创新高，而且上市企业获利预计将增长60%，但投资者目前更聚焦于4大隐忧陷阱，分别是企业获利增长攀峰、经济增长可能减缓、变种毒株肆虐和美联储倾向缩减宽松规模。去年以来每逢财报季就买进的操作铁律恐怕将失灵，投资机构已经开始提高现金比重。\n摩根大通与高盛将在13日公布上季财报，象征着美股财报季的启动。根据Fact Set数据显示，分析师预测标准普尔500指数成分企业，在今年第二季的获利将比去年同期激增64%，是10多年以来的最高纪录。在美股价格已高、消费者物价也同步走扬的情况下，投资者将关注主管对获利前景和利润的看法，以及如何解决目前缺工的问题。\n先来看看彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)所指，在新冠肺炎疫情期间，美股投资者只要在财报季来临时买进都是赢家。早前在财报季开始后的6周内，标准普尔500指数平均上涨幅度达到4.6%。但分析师提到，经济扩张周期已经到顶，连带可能使得企业获利增长攀升高峰。投资者因此担忧，历经15个月的政策大牛市将可能泄气。历史经验显示，在企业获利增长到顶峰时，股市表现也将欠佳。\n美联储向国会呈交的美国经济半年报告中显示出，部分原物料短缺和缺工问题，正阻碍着今年强劲的经济反弹，并促使暂时性通胀出现。报告还提到，疫苗接种方面的进展已经使得经济复苏且强劲增长，但原物料投入短缺和缺工，持续抑制着许多商业活动的重新启动。\n报告也透露，美联储官员接下来对近期经济发展决策的信号。自2020年3月新冠疫情在美国掀起浪潮以来，美联储持续将利率定在接近于零的水平。美联储曾表明，在确定通胀率能维持在2%的目标内，劳动力市场恢复至所谓“充分就业”之前，预计利率都将维持在该水平不变。\n根据美联储所发布的报告反映出，美国经济复苏的进程有可能在未来几个月内面临障碍，短暂性通胀问题仍然会是投资者关注的焦点。经济增长可能放缓，而景气转弱的最明显信号，就是近几周美国10年期国债收益率持续下降，促使银行股失去其原有的吸引力，科技股等成长型股票预计将再次获得欢迎。\n在第二季财报结束后，分析师预计未来三季企业获利增长都将减缓，预计明年初时获利增长率将无法达到5%，鉴于美国政府的政策支持力道将减弱，而且去年的低基期效应也将宣告结束。\n花旗首席美股策略师Tobias Levkovich表示，目前美股平均本益比达到网络泡沫以来的最高点，对利空的承受能力非常弱。再加上美国总统拜登政府准备提高企业税率，而且工资与原料成本上升，对企业净利的影响不小。\n美国财政部5月份在声明中提到，与经济合作与发展组织(OECD)和二十国集团(G20)合作，针对在国际税收谈判的会议中提出15%的全球最低公司税率，以结束通过最低税率吸引公司的竞争，因为这种竞争最终会侵蚀政府收益。这项提议让美国的立场更贴近，经合组织在美重新参与谈判前所讨论的12.5%最低税率水平。\nTobias Levkovich补充道，目前美股市场过于自满，许多投资者都相信，股市将从政策行情顺利转向业绩行情，但这都还无法确定。企业利润降低、通胀担忧升高，美联储退场、政府加税等诸多利空，都将持续接踵而至。\n投资者也将紧盯预计在7月14日发布的6月份美国消费者物价指数(CPI)，预计年涨5%。美联储主席鲍威尔也将在同日出席听证会，发布货币政策上半年度的报告，而他对通胀与经济展望的讲话也将成为驱动因素。\nDataTrek共同创始人Nicholas Colas提到，标准普尔500指数涨势远比企业盈余增长速度快，今年初以来该指数已经涨近16%，而今年和明年的企业预估获利增长率分别为14%和10%。他认为，2022年盈余需要增长14%，使得预估本益比降低至18倍，美股才算是合理。\n而在新冠疫情方面，美国遭遇新一波变种毒株的来袭，特别是最初在印度发现的Delta变种毒株。美国疾病控制与中心(CDC)表示，已经将Delta变异株列为美国主要病毒，占据超过50%的确诊病例。美国制药公司辉瑞(Pfizer)和其德国合作伙伴BioNTech宣布，计划8月向美国食品药品管理局(FDA)申请授权追加接种第三剂疫苗，表示12个月内接种第三剂疫苗能大幅度提高免疫力，而且也能有助于借此来对抗高传染力的印度Delta变种毒株。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148207723,"gmtCreate":1625975891762,"gmtModify":1703751520457,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148207723","repostId":"1124741749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124741749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625910991,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124741749?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 17:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Thorpe and Simmons: The Legendary Lives of Two Godfather Investment Magnates","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124741749","media":"SMARTMATRIX","summary":"他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校。","content":"<p>A Man for All Markets is the personal biography of Edward Thorp. The Chinese translation is \"The Man Who Beat All Markets\". Judging from Thorp's experience, from beating casinos to entering Wall Street, OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives are All dabbled in, which is worthy of the name All Markets. Taleb says in the preface that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and The godfather of quantitative investment, he pioneered The introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial transactions, which influenced countless Quant bosses in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including The famous James Simons, whose Renaissance technology company created The myth of The rate of return in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography The Man Who Solved The Market details The ups and downs of him and his team's conquest of The financial Market. Although it was compiled by a Wall Street Journal writer based on interviews, many of them have never been revealed before.</p><p><b>Academic Source</b></p><p>When culture flourishes, people are outstanding. The so-called outstanding people, such as the Hunan School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. In academic circles, there is a similar phenomenon. A careful study of the backgrounds of the two big bosses will find a lot in common. They were both born in the 1930s, gifted since childhood, in the academic circle, but both are devoted to money, and have two alma maters in common: University of California, Berkeley and MIT. The academics of both schools reached their peak after the war. One of the main reasons was the large-scale military scientific research activities spawned by World War II (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory and modern computers). Both Thorp and Simons happened to catch up with this wave of academic dividends. In the 1950s, Thorp became obsessed with studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons remained submerged in theoretical mathematics, which also led to his academic achievements (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>The talked-about story today is that Thorp used the law of large numbers and Kelly's formula to defeat the casino, and he became the first person in history to be \"blacked out\" by a Las Vegas casino. By contrast, PNP (Princeton Newport Partners), the hedge fund he founded, has a much dimmer profile. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1%, respectively, and the average annual growth rate of the S&P index was 10.2% during the same period. In the past 19 years, after two oil crises in 1970s and the stock market crash in 1987, the two funds have never suffered a single-quarter loss, let alone an annual loss. In the world's largest casino, its performance is the best, and its investment model is 20 years ahead of the broad customers who have filed into Wall Street since then.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to shut down because it was implicated in the case of Milken, the king of junk bonds. It was in this year that Simons set up the Medal Fund. He is over fifty years old, and he can be described as a late bloomer. He has been exploring for 10 years to find a successful investment model, and has been swinging between subjective and quantitative. Although the outside world has always regarded Simons as a master of quantitative investment, in fact, his role is completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to dig all kinds of scientists from the academic circle to help the company develop quantitative models, and as a spiritual leader to shape the company's corporate culture. As a world-class mathematician + excellent sales, he can deal well with different people, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>Quantitative path</b></p><p>As a pioneer of quantitative trading, Thorp is good at hedging arbitrage of various derivatives. The bear market and volatility in the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and sense of market smell, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factors models — early prototypes of quant. The risk under this model is theoretically infinite, especially the upper limit of losses of shorting those overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. Since then, LTCM adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked a risk control strategy like Thorp and was defeated by Black Swan. In order to improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs, and once again became the pioneer of Algorithm Trading.</p><p>Simons, by contrast, wasn't so lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading to continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data including data cleaning, signaling mechanisms and back-testing. In 1986, the model framework for identifying hidden price trends was used-in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading-in 1992, only a single model was used (critical breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities with speech recognition), and the model went through a long process of iterative improvement. Finally, the important core ability of the model was developed: identifying the \"value of transactions\", including: the certainty of price trend, the weight trade-off between trading signals, and the judgment of the impact of trading according to signals on the market. This ability is particularly important for high-frequency full-variety trading.</p><p><b>Winning Systems: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, gambling and investing are both games based on probability and statistics, and the amount of bets is allocated according to the winning rate (money management based on Kelly's rule). The first major breakthrough of the Medallion Fund also came from the application of Kelly's rule and the shortening of the transaction frequency to make its transactions more reflect the law of large numbers. The Medallion's system makes money as long as the winning percentage is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of every sale. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the negligence and mistakes of other traders (market invalidity). Human behavior under high pressure is highly predictable, and they instinctively exhibit panic. Modeling is based on the premise that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros used reflexive philosophical theory to model human behavior, while Simons' team used data and algorithms to model human behavior, so as to confirm the theory of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investment, which simplifies the market to a Mr. Market, the experience of quantitative investment is that there are far more factors and variables affecting financial markets and investment than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market inefficiency can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp spares no effort to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors struggle to find the most basic drivers, but what is missing is perhaps a whole dimension of information. The Medallion Fund cannot explain the logic behind every law of profit, just as humans cannot understand Alpha Go, perhaps at higher latitudes.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not panacea. When data and desire conflict, even a rational scientist cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention is to create an algorithm-driven automatic trading system, which completely shields human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he can't help but intervene manually, reduce his dependence on signals, and actively reduce his trading position. The intervention result is not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said: \"<b>Never put too much trust in trading models. The basic mistake of long-term capital management is to think that the model is the truth. We never believe that our model can reflect the whole truth, it only reflects a part of the truth</b>。”</p><p><b>Kuan Ke Life</b></p><p>In fact, the intersection of many big bosses far exceeds our imagination. For example, Thorp and Buffett played tricks at the bridge table. After confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, he decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people think that Xueba may not necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of school. However, Thorp practiced the way of thinking of applying abstract thinking to real life, and truly interpreted that \"a tough life doesn't need explanation\". Academics, wealth and family are complete, and he realized very early that life itself is higher than making money. Compared to Thorp's brilliant life, Simons had too many twists and turns. He was divorced, his two sons suffered misfortune one after another, and he was betrayed by his partners. But in the end, I choose to make peace with life and devote myself to charity. From academic career to wide guest life, I explore the true meaning of fate in the ups and downs, and experience itself is the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the end is often less important, and the journey itself and the experience along the way are more precious.<b>No body can take away the dance you have danced.</b></p>","source":"lsy1625911325017","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Thorpe and Simmons: The Legendary Lives of Two Godfather Investment Magnates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThorpe and Simmons: The Legendary Lives of Two Godfather Investment Magnates\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">SMARTMATRIX</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 17:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A Man for All Markets is the personal biography of Edward Thorp. The Chinese translation is \"The Man Who Beat All Markets\". Judging from Thorp's experience, from beating casinos to entering Wall Street, OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives are All dabbled in, which is worthy of the name All Markets. Taleb says in the preface that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and The godfather of quantitative investment, he pioneered The introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial transactions, which influenced countless Quant bosses in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including The famous James Simons, whose Renaissance technology company created The myth of The rate of return in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography The Man Who Solved The Market details The ups and downs of him and his team's conquest of The financial Market. Although it was compiled by a Wall Street Journal writer based on interviews, many of them have never been revealed before.</p><p><b>Academic Source</b></p><p>When culture flourishes, people are outstanding. The so-called outstanding people, such as the Hunan School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. In academic circles, there is a similar phenomenon. A careful study of the backgrounds of the two big bosses will find a lot in common. They were both born in the 1930s, gifted since childhood, in the academic circle, but both are devoted to money, and have two alma maters in common: University of California, Berkeley and MIT. The academics of both schools reached their peak after the war. One of the main reasons was the large-scale military scientific research activities spawned by World War II (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory and modern computers). Both Thorp and Simons happened to catch up with this wave of academic dividends. In the 1950s, Thorp became obsessed with studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons remained submerged in theoretical mathematics, which also led to his academic achievements (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>The talked-about story today is that Thorp used the law of large numbers and Kelly's formula to defeat the casino, and he became the first person in history to be \"blacked out\" by a Las Vegas casino. By contrast, PNP (Princeton Newport Partners), the hedge fund he founded, has a much dimmer profile. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1%, respectively, and the average annual growth rate of the S&P index was 10.2% during the same period. In the past 19 years, after two oil crises in 1970s and the stock market crash in 1987, the two funds have never suffered a single-quarter loss, let alone an annual loss. In the world's largest casino, its performance is the best, and its investment model is 20 years ahead of the broad customers who have filed into Wall Street since then.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to shut down because it was implicated in the case of Milken, the king of junk bonds. It was in this year that Simons set up the Medal Fund. He is over fifty years old, and he can be described as a late bloomer. He has been exploring for 10 years to find a successful investment model, and has been swinging between subjective and quantitative. Although the outside world has always regarded Simons as a master of quantitative investment, in fact, his role is completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to dig all kinds of scientists from the academic circle to help the company develop quantitative models, and as a spiritual leader to shape the company's corporate culture. As a world-class mathematician + excellent sales, he can deal well with different people, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>Quantitative path</b></p><p>As a pioneer of quantitative trading, Thorp is good at hedging arbitrage of various derivatives. The bear market and volatility in the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and sense of market smell, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factors models — early prototypes of quant. The risk under this model is theoretically infinite, especially the upper limit of losses of shorting those overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. Since then, LTCM adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked a risk control strategy like Thorp and was defeated by Black Swan. In order to improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs, and once again became the pioneer of Algorithm Trading.</p><p>Simons, by contrast, wasn't so lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading to continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data including data cleaning, signaling mechanisms and back-testing. In 1986, the model framework for identifying hidden price trends was used-in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading-in 1992, only a single model was used (critical breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities with speech recognition), and the model went through a long process of iterative improvement. Finally, the important core ability of the model was developed: identifying the \"value of transactions\", including: the certainty of price trend, the weight trade-off between trading signals, and the judgment of the impact of trading according to signals on the market. This ability is particularly important for high-frequency full-variety trading.</p><p><b>Winning Systems: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, gambling and investing are both games based on probability and statistics, and the amount of bets is allocated according to the winning rate (money management based on Kelly's rule). The first major breakthrough of the Medallion Fund also came from the application of Kelly's rule and the shortening of the transaction frequency to make its transactions more reflect the law of large numbers. The Medallion's system makes money as long as the winning percentage is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of every sale. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the negligence and mistakes of other traders (market invalidity). Human behavior under high pressure is highly predictable, and they instinctively exhibit panic. Modeling is based on the premise that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros used reflexive philosophical theory to model human behavior, while Simons' team used data and algorithms to model human behavior, so as to confirm the theory of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investment, which simplifies the market to a Mr. Market, the experience of quantitative investment is that there are far more factors and variables affecting financial markets and investment than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market inefficiency can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp spares no effort to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors struggle to find the most basic drivers, but what is missing is perhaps a whole dimension of information. The Medallion Fund cannot explain the logic behind every law of profit, just as humans cannot understand Alpha Go, perhaps at higher latitudes.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not panacea. When data and desire conflict, even a rational scientist cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention is to create an algorithm-driven automatic trading system, which completely shields human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he can't help but intervene manually, reduce his dependence on signals, and actively reduce his trading position. The intervention result is not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said: \"<b>Never put too much trust in trading models. The basic mistake of long-term capital management is to think that the model is the truth. We never believe that our model can reflect the whole truth, it only reflects a part of the truth</b>。”</p><p><b>Kuan Ke Life</b></p><p>In fact, the intersection of many big bosses far exceeds our imagination. For example, Thorp and Buffett played tricks at the bridge table. After confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, he decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people think that Xueba may not necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of school. However, Thorp practiced the way of thinking of applying abstract thinking to real life, and truly interpreted that \"a tough life doesn't need explanation\". Academics, wealth and family are complete, and he realized very early that life itself is higher than making money. Compared to Thorp's brilliant life, Simons had too many twists and turns. He was divorced, his two sons suffered misfortune one after another, and he was betrayed by his partners. But in the end, I choose to make peace with life and devote myself to charity. From academic career to wide guest life, I explore the true meaning of fate in the ups and downs, and experience itself is the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the end is often less important, and the journey itself and the experience along the way are more precious.<b>No body can take away the dance you have danced.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw\">SMARTMATRIX</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388d882133df2db2363aa871ff756c47","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124741749","content_text":"A Man for All Markets是Edward Thorp的个人传记，中文翻译《战胜一切市场的人》，从Thorp的经历来看，从打败赌场到进入华尔街，OTC期权、可转债、股票、期货等衍生品，全部涉猎，名副其实的All Markets。塔勒布在序言里说，他的回忆录读起来像一部惊悚小说。\n作为一个数学天才、量化投资教父级人物，他开创性的将概率论、信息论、计算机编程引入金融交易，影响了后世无数Quant大佬：Bill Gross、David Shaw、Ken Griffin...其中也包括大名鼎鼎的James Simons，后者的文艺复兴科技公司创造了金融史上的回报率神话，同样，讲述Simons的传记The Man Who Solved The Market，详细记录了他和他的团队征服金融市场的起起落落，虽是一位华尔街日报作家根据采访汇编而成，但其中不少以前从未披露过的精彩故事。\n学术源流\n文化兴，则人杰出，所谓的人杰地灵，比如中国明末以来的湖湘学派让湖南成为革命党人的摇篮。在学术圈，也有类似的现象。仔细研究两位大佬的背景，会发现很多共通点，他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校：加州大学伯克利分校和MIT。两校的学术在战后都达到了巅峰，主要一个原因就是二战催生的大规军事科研活动（著名的曼哈顿计划、密码学、信息论和现代计算机），Thorp和Simons都恰好赶上了这波学术红利。50年代，Thorp醉心于和香农一起研究轮盘赌，而Simons仍埋头于理论数学问题，这也使得其在学术上的成就更高（Chern-Simons Theroy）。60年代，MIT成为计算机革命的中心，而数学和计算机正是通向华尔街的两把钥匙，Thorp正是手握这两把钥匙的幸运儿。\n赌场vs华尔街\n如今为人津津乐道的故事是Thorp利用大数定律和凯利公式打败了赌场，他也成了历史上第一个被拉斯维加斯赌场“拉黑”的人。相比之下，他创设的对冲基金PNP（Princeton Newport Partners）知名度黯淡不少。实际上，从1969年到1988年，PNP两支基金的年化收益率分别达到19.1%和15.1%，同期标普指数年均增长率为10.2%。19年间历经70年代两次石油危机、87年股灾，两只基金从未发生单季亏损，更没有年度亏损。在世间最大的赌场，其业绩冠绝其时，其投资模式，领先此后鱼贯进入华尔街的宽客们20年。\n1988年，Thorp的基金因为受到垃圾债券之王米尔肯一案的牵连被迫关闭。正是在这一年，Simons成立大奖章基金，已年过半百的他，可谓大器晚成，在此前为了寻找成功的投资模型已经摸索了10年之久，一直在主观和量化之间摇摆。尽管外界一直都把Simons视作量化投资大师，但实际上他点角色和Thorp完全不同，他的主要工作并不是开发量化模型，而是从学术圈挖掘各类科学家来帮助公司开发量化模型，并且作为精神领袖塑造公司企业文化。作为一名世界级的数学家+卓越的销售，他与不同的人都能融洽的打交道，这是一种罕见的能力。\n量化之路\n作为量化交易的先驱，Thorp擅长各种衍生品的对冲套利，70年代的熊市和波动率让这种策略运行的非常完美。依靠自己的数学天赋和市场嗅觉发现了新的蓝海：统计套利（Statistical Arbitrage）和因子模型（factors model）——早期的quant原型。这种模式下的风险理论上是无穷的，尤其是做空那些价格高估的股票的损失上限是无穷大，Thorp主要风控策略是分散化投资。此后的LTCM采用类似的套利模式，但缺少Thorp这样的风控策略，被黑天鹅击败。为了提升投资效率，Thorp将投资策略变成程序，再次成为程序化交易（Algorithm Trading）的先驱。\n相比之下，Simons就没那么幸运了。从早期尝试直觉投资到基于趋势的动量交易、反转交易再到持续收集挖掘海量数据包括数据清洗、信号机制和回溯测试。1986年使用识别隐藏价格趋势的模型框架——1989年利用异常交易信号进行短期高频交易——1992年改为只用单一模型（关键性突破），而后语音识别专家帮助进行各种技术突破（金融模型与语音识别有相似之处），模型经历了漫长迭代改进的过程。最终练就了模型重要核心能力：识别出“交易的价值”，包括：价格趋势的确定性大小、交易信号之间的权重取舍、根据信号进行交易对市场造成的影响的判断。这项能力对于高频全品种交易尤为重要。\n取胜系统：概率思考&对人类行为建模\n对Thorp来说，赌博和投资都是以概率统计为基础的游戏，根据胜率的大小来分配下注金额的大小（基于凯利法则的资金管理），而大奖章基金的第一次重大突破也来自于对凯利法则的运用以及缩短交易频率使其交易更体现大数定律。大奖章的系统只要胜率略高于50%就能赚钱，而不在乎每一笔买卖的盈亏。本质上，是在利用其他交易者的疏忽和错误赚钱（市场无效）。人类在高压下的行为具有很高的可预测性，他们会本能地表现出恐慌。建模的前提是人类会不断重复过去的行为。索罗斯曾以反身性的哲学理论对人类行为建模，而Simons的团队利用数据和算法对人类行为建模，以此印证行为金融学的理论。\n与传统的价值投资把市场面简化成一位市场先生不同，量化投资的经验是，影响金融市场和投资的因素和变量远远比大多数人意识到的更多，导致市场无效的因素甚至可以说是加密的（Thorp在书中对有效市场假说也不遗余力的进行驳斥）。投资者努力寻找最基本的推动因素，但是遗漏的也许是一整个维度的信息。大奖章基金无法对每一条盈利的规律背后的逻辑进行解释，就如同人类无法理解阿尔法围棋一样，也许是更高纬度的存在。\n模型是对世界的抽象和简化，但模型并不是万能的。当数据和欲望相冲突，即便是理性的科学家，也无法做到完全理性。Simons的初心是创建的算法驱动的自动交易系统，完全屏蔽人类的主观判断，但每一次危机，他仍忍不住会手动干预，减少对信号的依赖，主动缩减交易头寸，可干预的结果并不十分理想。他的同事帕特森也说：”永远不要对交易模型过于信任。长期资本管理公司的基本错误是认为模型就是事实真相，我们从未相信我们的模型能够反映全部事实，它只反映事实的一部分。”\n宽客人生\n其实很多大佬的交集，远远超过我们想象。比如Thorp和巴菲特在桥牌桌上过过招，在确认巴菲特最终会成为全美最富有的人之后，果断投资了BRK的股票。很多人以为，学霸不一定会拥有好人生，毕竟，book smart和street smart之间的有极大的鸿沟，现实世界的规则比学校要复杂太多，但Thorp践行了将抽象思维运用到现实生活中的思维方式，真正诠释了“彪悍的人生不需要解释”，学术、财富、家庭圆满，很早就意识到在生活本身高于赚钱。相比较Thorp精彩纷呈的人生，Simons的人生曲折太多，离过婚，他的两个儿子先后遭受不幸，还遭遇过伙伴背叛。但最终还是选择和生活讲和，并投身慈善事业，从学术生涯到宽客人生，在跌宕起伏中探寻命运的真谛，而经历本身就是意义所在。就像Thorp在自传末尾所说：生活像是读一本小说或者跑一场马拉松，到达终点往往不是那么重要，旅途本身和沿途的体验更为珍贵。No body can take away the dance you have danced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141758662,"gmtCreate":1625893928556,"gmtModify":1703750631140,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls&nbsp; likr and comment","listText":"Pls&nbsp; likr and comment","text":"Pls likr and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141758662","repostId":"2150322325","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150322325","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625805180,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150322325?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 12:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opinions on tapering QE are divided, what is the Fed hesitant about?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150322325","media":"北京商报","summary":"虽然两大阵营意见不一，但最新释出的会议纪要表明，对于缩减QE的计划，美联储依然“稳坐泰山”。“保持耐心”“只是暂时”……在“放水”和通胀的压力高企之下，美联储放的鸽或许还要再飞一会儿。\n\n两派分歧\n在","content":"<p><div>Although the two camps have different opinions, the latest meeting minutes show that the Fed is still \"sitting firmly on Mount Tai\" for the plan to reduce QE. \"Be patient\" and \"just temporarily\"... Under the high pressure of \"releasing water\" and inflation, the pigeons released by the Federal Reserve may have to fly for a while. Differences between the two factions After more than a year of loose monetary policy, when the Federal Reserve will pivot has become something that global investors have to pay attention to. On July 7th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting. However, the Fed still has not reached an agreement on reducing QE. This Minute shows that in light of US inflation and...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.bbtnews.com.cn/2021/0709/402103.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"BJSB","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinions on tapering QE are divided, what is the Fed hesitant about?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinions on tapering QE are divided, what is the Fed hesitant about?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">北京商报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 12:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Although the two camps have different opinions, the latest meeting minutes show that the Fed is still \"sitting firmly on Mount Tai\" for the plan to reduce QE. \"Be patient\" and \"just temporarily\"... Under the high pressure of \"releasing water\" and inflation, the pigeons released by the Federal Reserve may have to fly for a while. Differences between the two factions After more than a year of loose monetary policy, when the Federal Reserve will pivot has become something that global investors have to pay attention to. On July 7th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting. However, the Fed still has not reached an agreement on reducing QE. This Minute shows that in light of US inflation and...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.bbtnews.com.cn/2021/0709/402103.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.bbtnews.com.cn/2021/0709/402103.shtml\">北京商报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df4d9cdd3363ecd53a0135c21f5fab8","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.bbtnews.com.cn/2021/0709/402103.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150322325","content_text":"虽然两大阵营意见不一，但最新释出的会议纪要表明，对于缩减QE的计划，美联储依然“稳坐泰山”。“保持耐心”“只是暂时”……在“放水”和通胀的压力高企之下，美联储放的鸽或许还要再飞一会儿。\n\n两派分歧\n在一年多宽松的货币政策后，美联储何时转向，成为全球投资者不得不关注的内容。当地时间7月7日，美联储公布了6月货币政策会议纪要。\n不过，对于缩减QE，美联储依然没有达成一致。这份纪要显示，鉴于美国通胀和就业前景存在不确定性，美联储官员对于缩减资产购买计划存在分歧。\n一些美联储官员认为，经济复苏的速度快于预期，同时伴随着通胀的大幅上升，美联储应该要采取行动，缩减资产购买计划的条件会比之前预期的更早达到；但另一些官员认为，仅凭当前经济数据不足以明确研判美国潜在经济增长势头，几个月后才能更好评估就业市场和通胀走势。\n除了对缩减计划的开始时间有争议，会议纪要还显示，美联储官员对于如何缩减资产购买计划也存在分歧。数名官员认为，考虑到当前美国房地产市场过热，相比削减购买美国国债，应更快或更早削减购买机构抵押贷款支持证券；但其他几名官员倾向于同等比例削减购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券。\n虽然美联储内部出现了两种说法，但会议的主基调仍是在收紧货币政策方面需要“保持耐心”。中国社会科学院美国研究所助理研究员杨水清对北京商报记者表示，总体来说，这份会议纪要没有什么超过市场预期的东西。总结起来就是：“美联储知道有风险，但现在不是行动的时候。”\nOanda高级市场策略师EdwardMoya也认为，美联储会议纪要整体偏鸽，明确排除7月宣布缩减QE的可能性。但关于经济数据的辩论正在升温，美联储显然仍处于观望状态。\n美联储的“按兵不动”，也让市场信心大增。7月7日，美国股市三大指数集体收涨，纳指与标普500指数创历史新高。\n截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨104.42点，涨幅0.3%，报34681.79点；纳斯达克指数涨1.42点，涨幅0.01%，报14665.06点；标普500指数涨14.59点，涨幅0.34%，报4358.13点。\n“通胀只是暂时的”\n整体来看，此次会议纪要的分歧多于共识。不过，有一项取得了主要共识，那就是通胀水平。\n此前公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI环比上涨0.6%，同比增长达5%，创下2008年8月以来最大同比增幅；PPI则同比上升6.6%，为2010年11月有可比数据以来最高水平。\n如此大的涨幅下，美联储成员上调了对经济增长和通胀的预期，他们普遍的看法是，尽管今年通胀会飙升至3.4%，但压力会在未来几个月得到缓解。哪怕不乏有人认为价格上行压力会持续到明年，但纪要特别强调了“通胀只是暂时的”。\n除了美联储，白宫也称美国通胀上升是暂时现象。美国白宫经济顾问委员会主席塞西莉亚·劳斯6日表示，近期美国通胀上升主要是由新冠疫情引发的供应链中断和经济重启后消费需求激增造成，一旦供需趋于平衡，通胀将会回落。\n劳斯指出，美国最近3轮通胀（1973-1982年、1989-1991年和2008年）很大程度上都是受油价飙升影响，但当前美国物价上涨并非主要由油价驱动，而且美国已成为净石油出口国，油价对美国经济的影响与过去不同。\n当然，美联储官员们并不讳言今年通胀上行的幅度有些令人意外。不过，会议纪要透露出他们对通胀未来的路径莫衷一是，这可能也是暂时保持政策耐心的原因之一。\n但值得注意的是，随着通胀的持续，一个“隐藏风险”已被触发——通胀永久性上涨的风险提高了。高盛首席经济学家JanHatzius表示，自危机以来，美国低收入人群的工资已上涨6%，而底层工资的强劲增长，正是推动通胀永久性上涨的风险点之一。\n不过，与会官员也总体上都同意，一旦通胀失控或出现其他风险，美联储必须采取行动。正是为了应对高通胀风险，如今已经有俄罗斯、巴西、土耳其等6国先于美国一步宣布加息。\n何时缩减\n短时间内货币政策不会收紧，再加上此前大规模“放水”的财政政策，美国早已水漫金山。就在一周前，美国还通过了一项基建法案，计划投入7150亿美元，发展交通、水利等基建计划。\n杨水清指出，美联储不收紧货币政策，其实是他们认为经济风险仍然存在，比如就业不够充分、疫情仍未远去等。有与会者表示，美国经济远远没有实现就业目标。虽然最近就业增长强劲，仍比预期的要弱，同时劳动力市场的复苏在不同的族裔和收入群体以及不同的部门之间仍然是不平衡的。\n在疫情方面，根据美国疾病控制与预防中心发布的最新数据，Delta病毒株是美国新冠感染的主要毒株，超过了Alpha变种。数据显示，在截至7月3日的两周内，美国感染Delta变异毒株的新冠肺炎病例数占新增病例数的51.7%。\n但每个月美联储的会议，总让何时缩减QE的猜测纷纷。经济学家普遍预计，美联储将在今年8月或9月宣布缩减资产购买的策略，并在年底前或明年初开始正式启动削减购债规模。\n美国银行经济学家Michelle Meyer表示，自美联储上次会议以来，大多数美联储决策者都对经济表达了更为普遍乐观也相对鹰派的看法。一些决策者暗示，他们认为最近的就业增长和通胀超标意味着朝着美联储就业最大化和稳定物价的目标取得“实质性进一步进展”，这种情况将允许他们开始缩减资产购买，甚至在明年底前就启动加息。\n至于退场的过程，杨水清表示可以用上一次货币政策调整的7个月时间作为参考。这要追溯到2013年，当年的5月，美联储会议纪要和时任主席伯南克首次公开讨论退出；9月，美联储开始列举QE退出理由和运用何种方法缩减QE规模；到了12月，美联储开始明确并实质性削减QE。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143421091,"gmtCreate":1625811026213,"gmtModify":1703749037312,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143421091","repostId":"2150322214","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150322214","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625801499,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150322214?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 11:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street's Big Three Together Bet: Reflation Trading Will Make a Comeback","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150322214","media":"智通财经","summary":"一些全球最大的基金管理公司正押注：此前遭受重创的通货再膨胀交易将迅速卷土重来。","content":"<p>Some of the world's biggest fund managers are betting that previously battered reflation trading will make a quick comeback.</p><p>Wall Street's Big Three<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>With a total of about $12 trillion in assets, the Big Three recently said that the rise of the bond market has caused the yield to drop suddenly. There is no need to panic too much. This is only a temporary episode. The fact is that the global economic recovery is still on the right track.</p><p>Mike Bell, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said: \"The bond market rally has gone too far. It does not reflect the strong fundamentals of the economic outlook. Economic growth will be very strong. We don't think the market will react enough to the future rate hike.\"</p><p>The reasons for this optimism are multifaceted, with JPMorgan mentioning that there is plenty of evidence that the economic recovery is expanding and creating record jobs. Of course, the growth and liquidity of risk assets may be closer to the peak of this cycle than a few months ago, but this still leaves ample room for the market outlook to run.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a25837a6581f4b196edd2bcf9d7c4\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That view stands in stark contrast to the anxiety of the bond market. U.S. stocks fell as much as 1.6% on Thursday amid some data showing a slower-than-expected rebound from the Covid-19 disaster that broke market trading strategies, such as after hedge funds aggressively bet on value stocks, and a steepening yield curve in trades.</p><p>Signs of volatility in the US Treasury Bond are clear, with the 10-year Treasury Bond yield falling below 1.25% for the first time since February on Thursday, while the real yield, which strips out inflation expectations, has fallen further into negative territory, a typical indicator of a stalled economic recovery. The 10-year inflation break-even ratio, the market's forecast of price expectations over the next decade, fell to its lowest level since March.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The group is not cold in the face of a sharp drop in yields, which the bank said will continue to support risky assets. It will continue to \"underweight\" bonds and \"overweight\" stocks over three and 12-month terms</b>。</p><p>\"I have not given up on reflation at all,\" said Christian Mueller Glissmann, managing director of portfolio strategy and asset allocation at the bank in London. \"Just an increase in liquidity does not mean an immediate return to long-term stagnation. The market may still last for a year, and the economy is still in a high growth trend.\"</p><p>While Goldman Sachs strategists are bullish on the stock market, they warn that returns could move lower.</p><p>Mueller Glissmann said that their selection of value stocks has also become more restrictive, and their holdings in less cyclically sensitive sectors such as healthcare and staple foods have increased.</p><p><b>JPMorgan's core forecast is that the economic recovery trend growth will continue into 2022, which in turn continues to push stocks higher and ultimately bond yields higher.</b></p><p>The fund manager attributed the recent decline in yields to a range of factors, from concerns about the new coronavirus variant to a short squeeze in bond positions, and buying related to pension funds.</p><p><b>BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has $9 trillion in assets under management and is also in risk prevention mode. The agency remains underweight in developed-market government bonds, preferring equities over credit markets, and expects inflation to rise in the medium term, with the Fed and other central banks reacting more moderately than in the past.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4f72e12b810866ef4309e72a74c247\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The bond market has long been seen as a bellwether of economic growth. When yields fall, it means investors are either looking for safety or not seeing enough inflation risk.</p><p>Padhraic Garvey, head of global debt and interest rate strategy at ING Financial Markets, said, \"The fact that severe negative real interest rates have not dampened growth at all, we remain optimistic, but we cannot ignore that severe negative real yields will become less negative as the economic recovery gradually matures.\"</p><p>Additionally, New York-based chief investment officer Shalett wrote in a note this week that the company remains optimistic that growth and inflation will continue to unexpectedly upward, and that the yield curve will steepen, and believes the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield recovered to 1.75% in the quarter.</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street's Big Three Together Bet: Reflation Trading Will Make a Comeback</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street's Big Three Together Bet: Reflation Trading Will Make a Comeback\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the world's biggest fund managers are betting that previously battered reflation trading will make a quick comeback.</p><p>Wall Street's Big Three<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>With a total of about $12 trillion in assets, the Big Three recently said that the rise of the bond market has caused the yield to drop suddenly. There is no need to panic too much. This is only a temporary episode. The fact is that the global economic recovery is still on the right track.</p><p>Mike Bell, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said: \"The bond market rally has gone too far. It does not reflect the strong fundamentals of the economic outlook. Economic growth will be very strong. We don't think the market will react enough to the future rate hike.\"</p><p>The reasons for this optimism are multifaceted, with JPMorgan mentioning that there is plenty of evidence that the economic recovery is expanding and creating record jobs. Of course, the growth and liquidity of risk assets may be closer to the peak of this cycle than a few months ago, but this still leaves ample room for the market outlook to run.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a25837a6581f4b196edd2bcf9d7c4\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That view stands in stark contrast to the anxiety of the bond market. U.S. stocks fell as much as 1.6% on Thursday amid some data showing a slower-than-expected rebound from the Covid-19 disaster that broke market trading strategies, such as after hedge funds aggressively bet on value stocks, and a steepening yield curve in trades.</p><p>Signs of volatility in the US Treasury Bond are clear, with the 10-year Treasury Bond yield falling below 1.25% for the first time since February on Thursday, while the real yield, which strips out inflation expectations, has fallen further into negative territory, a typical indicator of a stalled economic recovery. The 10-year inflation break-even ratio, the market's forecast of price expectations over the next decade, fell to its lowest level since March.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The group is not cold in the face of a sharp drop in yields, which the bank said will continue to support risky assets. It will continue to \"underweight\" bonds and \"overweight\" stocks over three and 12-month terms</b>。</p><p>\"I have not given up on reflation at all,\" said Christian Mueller Glissmann, managing director of portfolio strategy and asset allocation at the bank in London. \"Just an increase in liquidity does not mean an immediate return to long-term stagnation. The market may still last for a year, and the economy is still in a high growth trend.\"</p><p>While Goldman Sachs strategists are bullish on the stock market, they warn that returns could move lower.</p><p>Mueller Glissmann said that their selection of value stocks has also become more restrictive, and their holdings in less cyclically sensitive sectors such as healthcare and staple foods have increased.</p><p><b>JPMorgan's core forecast is that the economic recovery trend growth will continue into 2022, which in turn continues to push stocks higher and ultimately bond yields higher.</b></p><p>The fund manager attributed the recent decline in yields to a range of factors, from concerns about the new coronavirus variant to a short squeeze in bond positions, and buying related to pension funds.</p><p><b>BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has $9 trillion in assets under management and is also in risk prevention mode. The agency remains underweight in developed-market government bonds, preferring equities over credit markets, and expects inflation to rise in the medium term, with the Fed and other central banks reacting more moderately than in the past.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4f72e12b810866ef4309e72a74c247\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The bond market has long been seen as a bellwether of economic growth. When yields fall, it means investors are either looking for safety or not seeing enough inflation risk.</p><p>Padhraic Garvey, head of global debt and interest rate strategy at ING Financial Markets, said, \"The fact that severe negative real interest rates have not dampened growth at all, we remain optimistic, but we cannot ignore that severe negative real yields will become less negative as the economic recovery gradually matures.\"</p><p>Additionally, New York-based chief investment officer Shalett wrote in a note this week that the company remains optimistic that growth and inflation will continue to unexpectedly upward, and that the yield curve will steepen, and believes the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield recovered to 1.75% in the quarter.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/510517.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/510517.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150322214","content_text":"一些全球最大的基金管理公司正押注：此前遭受重创的通货再膨胀交易将迅速卷土重来。\n华尔街三巨头摩根大通、贝莱德和摩根士丹利共拥有约12万亿美元的资产，近日三巨头表示，债券市场的上涨已使收益率骤然下滑，大家不用过度恐慌，这只是一个暂时的小插曲，事实是全球经济复苏仍在正轨上。\n摩根大通资产管理部门驻伦敦的全球市场策略师迈克•贝尔(Mike Bell)表示：“债券市场的反弹已经走得太远了，它没有反映出经济前景的基本面强劲，经济增长将非常强劲，我们认为市场对未来的加息反应不够。”\n这种乐观的原因是多方面的，摩根大通提到有大量证据表明，经济复苏正在扩大，并创造了创纪录的就业机会。当然，风险资产的增长和流动性可能比几个月前更接近本轮周期的峰值，但这仍给后市留下了充足的运行空间。\n\n该观点与债券市场的焦虑形成鲜明对比。周四美国股市下跌高达1.6%，一些数据显示，从Covid-19灾难中反弹的速度慢于预期，导致市场交易策略被打破，例如此前对冲基金积极押注价值股、以及收益率曲线变陡交易。\n美国国债波动的迹象十分明显，周四，10年期国债收益率自2月份以来首次跌至1.25%以下，而剔除通胀预期的实际收益率已进一步跌至负区间，这是经济复苏停滞的典型指标。十年期通胀盈亏平衡率(市场对未来十年物价预期的预测)跌至3月份以来的最低水平。\n值得一提的是，高盛集团面对收益率大跌也并不感冒，该行称较低的收益率将继续支撑风险资产。在3个月和12个月的期限内，它将继续“减持”债券、同时“增持”股票。\n“我根本没有放弃通货再膨胀，”该行驻伦敦投资组合策略和资产配置董事总经理克里斯蒂安•穆勒•格利斯曼(Christian Mueller Glissmann)表示，“仅仅流动性增加并不意味着必须立即回到长期停滞。市场仍可能持续一年的时间，经济仍处于高速增长趋势。”\n尽管高盛策略师看好股市，但他们警告称，回报率可能走低。\nMueller Glissmann称，他们对价值股的选择也变得更为严格，对周期性不太敏感的行业(如医疗保健和主食)持仓有所增加。\n摩根大通的核心预测是，经济复苏趋势性增长将持续到2022年，进而持续推动股市走高，并最终推高债券收益率。\n这位基金经理将近期收益率下降归因于一系列因素，从对新冠状病毒变种的担忧到债券仓位的空头挤压，以及与养老基金相关的买入。\n全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德管理着9万亿美元的资产，目前也处于风险防范模式。该机构仍然减持发达市场政府债券，偏好股票而非信贷市场，并预计中期通胀率将上升，美联储和其他央行的反应将比过去更加温和。\n\n长期以来，债券市场一直被视为经济增长的风向标。当收益率下跌时，这意味着投资者要么寻求安全，要么没有看到足够的通胀风险。\nING金融市场全球债务和利率策略主管帕德拉伊克·加维(Padhraic Garvey)表示，“事实上，严重的负实际利率根本没有抑制经济增长，我们仍然乐观，但也不能忽视严重的负实际收益率。随着经济复苏的逐步成熟，负面影响会越来越小”\n此外，总部位于纽约的首席投资官沙利特(Shalett)在本周的一份报告中写道，该公司仍然乐观地认为，经济增长和通胀将继续意外上行，收益率曲线将变陡，并相信10年期美国国债收益率在本季度回升至1.75%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143003920,"gmtCreate":1625751448260,"gmtModify":1703747793945,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gao","listText":"Gao","text":"Gao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143003920","repostId":"2149475793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149774137,"gmtCreate":1625751339329,"gmtModify":1703747788767,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149774137","repostId":"1165245102","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157630054,"gmtCreate":1625579745378,"gmtModify":1703744249974,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"plslike","listText":"plslike","text":"plslike","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157630054","repostId":"2149353355","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149353355","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625546456,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149353355?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 12:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"$1.3 trillion \"big transfer\", this summer is doomed to not be quiet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149353355","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年夏天美国货币市场将重新“洗牌”，会有大量资金易手，规模达上万亿美元。","content":"<p>The inflation alert in the United States seems to have been lifted, and the financial market binge continues under the appeasement of the Federal Reserve. Everything still seems to be in peace, but in an unnoticed corner of Wall Street, a storm is brewing.</p><p>Zoltan Pozsar smelled the crisis. The 42-year-old, Hungarian-born<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Analyst, known for accurately predicting the movement of the reverse repo market.</p><p>Pozsar's warning came weeks before the big turmoil in U.S. currency markets in 2019, which earned him the nicknames \"the oracle of market plumbing\" and \"RepoLegend\".</p><p><b>This time, Pozsar expects that a large amount of money will change hands in the U.S. money market this summer, with a scale of trillions of dollars. \"If you think of bank reserves as a deck of cards, then this deck will be reshuffled.\" In Pozsar's view, such a large-scale money rotation is likely to trigger a market turmoil that is underestimated by most people.</b></p><p>Prior to joining Credit Suisse in 2015, Pozsar worked for the U.S. Treasury Department and the New York Fed. During the 2008 financial crisis, he helped senior White House officials and the U.S. Treasury department unblock the asset-backed bond market through the Term asset-backed Loan Facility. The vehicle allows investors to use money borrowed from the Federal Reserve to buy bonds tied to consumer and corporate debt.</p><p>All along, the reverse repo market in the United States has not received so much attention, but in recent months, it has frequently made headlines, becoming a microcosm of excess liquidity after the unprecedented release of water in the United States.</p><p><h2>Funds with nowhere to put</h2>According to the data released by the New York Fed, on Wednesday, June 30th, Eastern Time, the Fed's overnight reverse repo consumption approached $1 trillion for the first time in history, and a total of 90 counterparties deposited $991.9 billion in the Fed's overnight fixed rate reverse repo tool.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85ed06c515b3021ba7bef75e9e2af90\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While moving toward the key psychological integer digit of $1 trillion, this is also the 10 consecutive trading days that the number has exceeded $700 billion and the three consecutive trading days that it has exceeded $800 billion. The number of 90 counterparties on that day was also the highest since 2016.</p><p>Contrary to the open market operations of the People's Bank of China, the Fed releases liquidity through positive repurchases and recovers liquidity through reverse repurchases. Overnight reverse repurchase has the function of withdrawing liquidity. Qualified counterparties such as money market funds and banks deposit cash in the Federal Reserve in exchange for high-quality collateral such as U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier,<b>The sharp surge in reverse repo balances reflects the current situation of excess liquidity in U.S. dollars in financial markets, in other words, overnight reverse repo is a market funding shelter during periods of excess liquidity:</b></p><p>When there is excess liquidity, in order to pursue safe assets, market funds often choose to buy U.S. Treasury Bond. When a large amount of funds buy U.S. bonds, the yield of U.S. bonds will continue to decline, and may even fall into the negative interest rate range. At this time, the overnight reverse repo agreement becomes a safe shelter for market funds, because the overnight reverse repo rate acts as the lower limit of the Fed's Interest Rate Corridor. Since the Fed does not want to fall into a negative interest rate, even in the post-epidemic zero interest rate environment, the overnight reverse repo rate level is 0%. Previously, the interest rate ON RRP of the overnight reverse repo vehicle, despite being only zero, still attracted a lot of money. This represents that money chasing short-term yields simply has nowhere to go but to the Fed without interest.</p><p>Two weeks ago, ON June 16th, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced that it would raise both the excess reserve rate (IOER) as the upper end of the Federal Funds rate range and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) as the lower end by 5 basis points, raising the ON RRP to 0.05%.</p><p><b>Subsequently, the use of the Fed's reverse repurchase tool further soared.</b></p><p><h2>A big rotation of funds</h2>Pozsar has been closely monitoring the movements in the reverse repo market.</p><p>He currently publishes Global Money Dispatch at least twice a week, which has become a must-read report for many traders, investment bankers and policymakers.</p><p>The Fed's monetary easing has distorted investor incentives, with ultra-low interest rates and central bank bond purchases keeping the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond hovering around 1.5%, below inflation, Pozsar said in a recent Dispatch:</p><p>Financial firms are willing to accept the Fed's negligible interest rates because the Fed's massive stimulus package has brought them a lot of money that has driven rates down to very low levels with few other places to put them. He believes that this may ultimately mean that bank deposits and reserves deposited in short-term Treasury Bond will flow back to the Federal Reserve through reverse repo instruments, and this shift may trigger unexpected fluctuations in unusual places.</p><p><b>\"We are talking about a massive rotation where a significant amount of money will flow from short-term Treasury Bond to reverse repo vehicles,\" Pozsa said.</b></p><p>In Pozsar's view, a rise in reverse repo rates should weaken demand for short-term US Treasury Bond from money market funds and foreign central banks. These deposits and the bank's reserves will eventually flow into the Fed, a process he calls a \"write-off.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2bc61dc127a8e37c4e601737f5b3c38\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But he doesn't see a big rise in short-term yields. He expects a gradual flow of reserves from banks to reverse repo vehicles as money managers allow short-term U.S. Treasury Bond to expire. He said Wall Street's careless approach to the shift underestimates its uncertain consequences, which could include unexpected swings.</p><p><b>Pozsar predicts that as short-term U.S. debt held by financial institutions such as money funds expires at the end of August, up to $1.3 trillion will be further poured into reverse repo tools:</b></p><p>As of May 31, large money funds held nearly $1 trillion in short-term debt, and the short-term debt held by these money funds will mature on August 31 — a large amount in a very short period of time. Moreover, this does not include the $300 billion in short-term debt held by smaller money funds. That said, by the end of August, we will see $1.3 trillion of money flowing from short-term debt into reverse repo!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3008099054a9c0e46f21c9586e4f7bd\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><h2>A faucet that won't close</h2>The ongoing flood of liquidity has unnerved many analysts.</p><p>According to the Wall Street Journal,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Joshua Younger, head of interest rate derivatives strategy, notes that excess cash in reverse repo vehicles could signal trouble ahead:</p><p>Worryingly, this is just the tip of the iceberg and we can't see the rest of it. The more money that ends up returning to the facility, the greater the overall surplus, and the greater the risk that this surplus will be used in ways that destabilize. But there are also analysts who are more optimistic. They believe that the hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into the Fed's instrument suggest that excess cash is not flowing into more speculative bets such as GameStop or Bitcoin, and there is no harm in money flowing back and forth between the Fed, through the financial system and back to the central bank.</p><p>Gordon Shannon, portfolio manager at Twenty-Four Asset Management, said the huge dollar amounts involved could trigger temporary volatility as the money moves, but \"further growth in reverse repo use is not necessarily a dangerous sign.\"</p><p>But Pozsar is concerned.</p><p>In the short term, the withdrawal of large amounts of money from the short-term U.S. Treasury Bond may not have serious consequences. The U.S. debt ceiling will take effect at the end of July, putting pressure on the Treasury to reduce short-term debt issuance. Short-term investors are keen to snap up these Treasury Bond in anticipation of supply shortages in Treasury Bond.</p><p>But the Fed's ongoing quantitative easing is also injecting liquidity into the market.<b>Pozsar expects $250 billion of funds to pour into the market through QE in the next two months, bringing the scale of funds that need to be absorbed to $400 billion.</b></p><p>Pozsar said the \"write-off\" of $400 billion is a lot of money, and it could lead to market anomalies as banks restructure their balance sheets.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$1.3 trillion \"big transfer\", this summer is doomed to not be quiet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$1.3 trillion \"big transfer\", this summer is doomed to not be quiet\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-06 12:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The inflation alert in the United States seems to have been lifted, and the financial market binge continues under the appeasement of the Federal Reserve. Everything still seems to be in peace, but in an unnoticed corner of Wall Street, a storm is brewing.</p><p>Zoltan Pozsar smelled the crisis. The 42-year-old, Hungarian-born<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Analyst, known for accurately predicting the movement of the reverse repo market.</p><p>Pozsar's warning came weeks before the big turmoil in U.S. currency markets in 2019, which earned him the nicknames \"the oracle of market plumbing\" and \"RepoLegend\".</p><p><b>This time, Pozsar expects that a large amount of money will change hands in the U.S. money market this summer, with a scale of trillions of dollars. \"If you think of bank reserves as a deck of cards, then this deck will be reshuffled.\" In Pozsar's view, such a large-scale money rotation is likely to trigger a market turmoil that is underestimated by most people.</b></p><p>Prior to joining Credit Suisse in 2015, Pozsar worked for the U.S. Treasury Department and the New York Fed. During the 2008 financial crisis, he helped senior White House officials and the U.S. Treasury department unblock the asset-backed bond market through the Term asset-backed Loan Facility. The vehicle allows investors to use money borrowed from the Federal Reserve to buy bonds tied to consumer and corporate debt.</p><p>All along, the reverse repo market in the United States has not received so much attention, but in recent months, it has frequently made headlines, becoming a microcosm of excess liquidity after the unprecedented release of water in the United States.</p><p><h2>Funds with nowhere to put</h2>According to the data released by the New York Fed, on Wednesday, June 30th, Eastern Time, the Fed's overnight reverse repo consumption approached $1 trillion for the first time in history, and a total of 90 counterparties deposited $991.9 billion in the Fed's overnight fixed rate reverse repo tool.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85ed06c515b3021ba7bef75e9e2af90\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While moving toward the key psychological integer digit of $1 trillion, this is also the 10 consecutive trading days that the number has exceeded $700 billion and the three consecutive trading days that it has exceeded $800 billion. The number of 90 counterparties on that day was also the highest since 2016.</p><p>Contrary to the open market operations of the People's Bank of China, the Fed releases liquidity through positive repurchases and recovers liquidity through reverse repurchases. Overnight reverse repurchase has the function of withdrawing liquidity. Qualified counterparties such as money market funds and banks deposit cash in the Federal Reserve in exchange for high-quality collateral such as U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier,<b>The sharp surge in reverse repo balances reflects the current situation of excess liquidity in U.S. dollars in financial markets, in other words, overnight reverse repo is a market funding shelter during periods of excess liquidity:</b></p><p>When there is excess liquidity, in order to pursue safe assets, market funds often choose to buy U.S. Treasury Bond. When a large amount of funds buy U.S. bonds, the yield of U.S. bonds will continue to decline, and may even fall into the negative interest rate range. At this time, the overnight reverse repo agreement becomes a safe shelter for market funds, because the overnight reverse repo rate acts as the lower limit of the Fed's Interest Rate Corridor. Since the Fed does not want to fall into a negative interest rate, even in the post-epidemic zero interest rate environment, the overnight reverse repo rate level is 0%. Previously, the interest rate ON RRP of the overnight reverse repo vehicle, despite being only zero, still attracted a lot of money. This represents that money chasing short-term yields simply has nowhere to go but to the Fed without interest.</p><p>Two weeks ago, ON June 16th, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced that it would raise both the excess reserve rate (IOER) as the upper end of the Federal Funds rate range and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) as the lower end by 5 basis points, raising the ON RRP to 0.05%.</p><p><b>Subsequently, the use of the Fed's reverse repurchase tool further soared.</b></p><p><h2>A big rotation of funds</h2>Pozsar has been closely monitoring the movements in the reverse repo market.</p><p>He currently publishes Global Money Dispatch at least twice a week, which has become a must-read report for many traders, investment bankers and policymakers.</p><p>The Fed's monetary easing has distorted investor incentives, with ultra-low interest rates and central bank bond purchases keeping the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond hovering around 1.5%, below inflation, Pozsar said in a recent Dispatch:</p><p>Financial firms are willing to accept the Fed's negligible interest rates because the Fed's massive stimulus package has brought them a lot of money that has driven rates down to very low levels with few other places to put them. He believes that this may ultimately mean that bank deposits and reserves deposited in short-term Treasury Bond will flow back to the Federal Reserve through reverse repo instruments, and this shift may trigger unexpected fluctuations in unusual places.</p><p><b>\"We are talking about a massive rotation where a significant amount of money will flow from short-term Treasury Bond to reverse repo vehicles,\" Pozsa said.</b></p><p>In Pozsar's view, a rise in reverse repo rates should weaken demand for short-term US Treasury Bond from money market funds and foreign central banks. These deposits and the bank's reserves will eventually flow into the Fed, a process he calls a \"write-off.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2bc61dc127a8e37c4e601737f5b3c38\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But he doesn't see a big rise in short-term yields. He expects a gradual flow of reserves from banks to reverse repo vehicles as money managers allow short-term U.S. Treasury Bond to expire. He said Wall Street's careless approach to the shift underestimates its uncertain consequences, which could include unexpected swings.</p><p><b>Pozsar predicts that as short-term U.S. debt held by financial institutions such as money funds expires at the end of August, up to $1.3 trillion will be further poured into reverse repo tools:</b></p><p>As of May 31, large money funds held nearly $1 trillion in short-term debt, and the short-term debt held by these money funds will mature on August 31 — a large amount in a very short period of time. Moreover, this does not include the $300 billion in short-term debt held by smaller money funds. That said, by the end of August, we will see $1.3 trillion of money flowing from short-term debt into reverse repo!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3008099054a9c0e46f21c9586e4f7bd\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><h2>A faucet that won't close</h2>The ongoing flood of liquidity has unnerved many analysts.</p><p>According to the Wall Street Journal,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Joshua Younger, head of interest rate derivatives strategy, notes that excess cash in reverse repo vehicles could signal trouble ahead:</p><p>Worryingly, this is just the tip of the iceberg and we can't see the rest of it. The more money that ends up returning to the facility, the greater the overall surplus, and the greater the risk that this surplus will be used in ways that destabilize. But there are also analysts who are more optimistic. They believe that the hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into the Fed's instrument suggest that excess cash is not flowing into more speculative bets such as GameStop or Bitcoin, and there is no harm in money flowing back and forth between the Fed, through the financial system and back to the central bank.</p><p>Gordon Shannon, portfolio manager at Twenty-Four Asset Management, said the huge dollar amounts involved could trigger temporary volatility as the money moves, but \"further growth in reverse repo use is not necessarily a dangerous sign.\"</p><p>But Pozsar is concerned.</p><p>In the short term, the withdrawal of large amounts of money from the short-term U.S. Treasury Bond may not have serious consequences. The U.S. debt ceiling will take effect at the end of July, putting pressure on the Treasury to reduce short-term debt issuance. Short-term investors are keen to snap up these Treasury Bond in anticipation of supply shortages in Treasury Bond.</p><p>But the Fed's ongoing quantitative easing is also injecting liquidity into the market.<b>Pozsar expects $250 billion of funds to pour into the market through QE in the next two months, bringing the scale of funds that need to be absorbed to $400 billion.</b></p><p>Pozsar said the \"write-off\" of $400 billion is a lot of money, and it could lead to market anomalies as banks restructure their balance sheets.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634679\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de9cc40ad0d5fa6a8446c9f7e5823b3","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634679","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149353355","content_text":"美国通胀警报似乎已经解除，在美联储的安抚之下，金融市场狂欢继续，一切看起来都似乎都还是一派歌舞升平的样子，但在华尔街一个不受关注的角落里，一场风暴正在酝酿。\nZoltan Pozsar嗅觉到了危机。这位42岁、出生于匈牙利的瑞士信贷分析师，以准确预测逆回购市场走势而闻名。\n2019年美国货币市场那场大动荡发生几周前，Pozsar就发出了警告， 这也为他赢得了“市场波动先知”（the oracle of market plumbing）和“回购传奇人物”（RepoLegend）的昵称。\n这一次，Pozsar预计，今年夏天美国货币市场将有大量资金易手，规模达上万亿美元，“如果你将银行储备视为一副牌，那么这副牌将被重新洗牌。”在Pozsar看来，这样一场大规模的资金轮换，很有可能引发一场被大多数人低估的市场动荡。\n在2015年加入瑞信信贷之前，Pozsar曾在美国财政部和纽约联储工作。在2008年金融危机期间，他曾协助白宫高级官员和美国财政部通过定期资产支持贷款工具(Term asset-backed Loan Facility)，疏通了资产支持债券市场。该工具允许投资者用从美联储借来的钱购买与消费者和企业债务相关的债券。\n一直以来，美国逆回购市场并不那么受关注，但最近几个月来，却频频登上新闻头条，成为美国史无前例大放水之后，流动性过剩的一个缩影。\n无处安放的资金\n据纽约联储公布的数据，美东时间6月30日周三，美联储的隔夜逆回购用量史上首次逼近1万亿美元，共有90名对手方在美联储的隔夜固定利率逆回购工具中存放了9919亿美元。\n\n在迈向1万亿美元的关键心理整数位的同时，这也是该数字连续10个交易日超过7000亿美元、连续三个交易日超过8000亿美元。当日90名交易对手的数量也创下2016年以来最多。\n与中国央行的公开市场操作相反，美联储通过正回购释放流动性、逆回购回收流动性。隔夜逆回购具有回笼流动性的功能，货币市场基金和银行等合格交易对手方将现金存入美联储，进而换取美国国债等高质量抵押品。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，逆回购余额的大幅飙升反映的是美国金融市场美元流动性过剩的现状，换句话说，隔夜逆回购是流动性过剩时期的市场资金庇护所：\n\n 当流动性过剩时，为追求安全资产，市场资金往往会选择购买美国国债，当大量资金购买美债时，美债收益率会不断下行，甚至可能跌入负利率区间。此时，隔夜逆回购协议就成为市场资金的安全庇护所，因为隔夜逆回购利率充当着美联储利率走廊下限的作用，由于美联储并不希望落入负利率，因此即便在疫情后0利率的环境下，隔夜逆回购利率水平也在0%。\n\n此前，隔夜逆回购工具的利率ON RRP尽管只有零，仍然吸引了大批资金。这代表追逐短期收益率的资金根本无处可去，只能无息放入美联储。\n两周前的6月16日，美联储FOMC宣布将作为联邦基金利率区间上限的超额准备金利率（IOER）和下限的隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）都上调5个基点，ON RRP提升至0.05%。\n随后，美联储逆回购工具的用量进一步暴增。\n一场资金大轮换\nPozsar一直在密切关注着逆回购市场的动向。\n他目前每周至少发布两期《全球货币快报》(Global Money Dispatch)，这已经成为许多交易员、投行家和政策制定者的必读报告。\nPozsar在近期的快报中表示，美联储的货币宽松政策扭曲了投资者的动机，超低利率和央行债券购买使10年期美国国债的收益率一直徘徊在1.5%左右，低于通胀率：\n\n 金融公司愿意接受美联储微不足道的利率，是因为美联储的大规模刺激计划给他们带来了大量资金，这些资金把利率压低到了非常低的水平，几乎没有其他地方可以放。\n\n他认为，这可能最终意味着，存放于短期国债的银行存款和准备金将通过逆回购工具，回流到美联储，这种转变可能会在不寻常的地方引发意外的波动。\nPozsa表示：“我们正在讨论一场大规模的轮换，大量资金将从短期国债流向逆回购工具。”\n在Pozsar看来，逆回购利率提高后，应该会削弱货币市场基金和外国央行对短期美国国债的需求。这些存款和银行的准备金最终将流入美联储，这一过程被他称为“冲销”。\n\n但他不认为短期收益率会出现大幅上升。他预计，随着资金管理公司允许短期美国国债到期，资金储备将逐渐从银行流向逆回购工具。他表示，华尔街对这一转变的漫不经心态度低估了其不确定的后果，其中可能包括意外的波动。\nPozsar预计，随着货币基金等金融机构持有的短期美债在8月底到期，将有高达1.3万亿美元的资金进一步涌入逆回购工具：\n\n 截至5月31日，大型货币基金持有将近1万亿美元的短债，这些货币基金持有的短债券将在8月31日到期——在很短的时间内，这是一个很大的数目。此外，这还不包括较小规模货币基金持有的3000亿美元短债。也就是说，到8月底，我们将看到1.3万亿美元的资金从短债流入逆回购！\n \n\n关不上的水龙头\n持续泛滥的流动性令不少分析师感到不安。\n据华尔街日报，摩根大通利率衍生品策略主管Joshua Younger指出，逆回购工具中的过剩现金可能预示着未来的麻烦：\n\n 令人担忧的是，这只是冰山一角，我们无法看到其他部分。最终回到该设施的资金越多，总体过剩资金就越大，这些过剩资金被用于破坏稳定的方式的风险也就越大。\n\n但也有分析师比较乐观， 他们认为，流入美联储这一工具的数千亿美元表明，过剩现金没有流入GameStop或比特币等更具投机性的押注中，货币在美联储之间来回流动，通过金融系统再回到央行，没有什么坏处。\nTwenty-Four Asset Management的投资组合经理Gordon Shannon表示，随着资金的转移，所涉及的巨额美元可能会引发暂时的波动，但“逆回购使用的进一步增长不一定是一个危险的迹象。”\n但Pozsar感到担忧。\n短期来看，大量资金从美国短期国债中撤离或许并不会造成严重后果。美国债务上限将在7月底生效，这给财政部带来压力，减少短债发行。由于预期国债供应将出现短缺，短期投资者热衷于抢购这些国债。\n但美联储持续的量化宽松还在向市场注入流动性。Pozsar预计，未来两个月将有2500亿美元资金通过QE涌入市场，使得需要被吸收的资金规模达到4000亿美元。\nPozsar表示，“冲销”掉4000亿美元是一笔不小的数目，随着银行重组资产负债表，这可能导致市场出现异常。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"BND":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154169230,"gmtCreate":1625490118620,"gmtModify":1703742601506,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154169230","repostId":"1172687898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172687898","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625458052,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172687898?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-05 12:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US Stocks Continue to Set Records, Do Investors Need to Be Alert?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172687898","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"在纳斯达克 指数和标普500 指数不断创新高之际，世界顶级基金经理仍在不断传递牛市信号——习惯它，并称下半年股市将继续上涨。贝莱德公司、道富环球市场、瑞银资产管理和摩根大通资产管理等公司预计下半年股市","content":"<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">NASDAQ</a>Exponential and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&P 500</a>The index continues to hit new highs as the world's top fund managers continue to send bull signals-get used to it and say stocks will continue to rise in the second half of the year. Companies such as BlackRock Inc., State Street Global Markets, UBS Asset Management and JPMorgan Asset Management expect stock markets to continue to rise in the second half of the year, though, a growing number of investors will seek opportunities to bring more returns in markets outside the U.S.</p><p>While the MSCI Global Index has risen 12% this year to a record high, the appeal of stocks has proven irresistible amid a sustained economic rebound. While some market participants are cautious about downside risks given strong valuations, a sharp rebound in corporate earnings and strong central bank support are expected to keep the rally alive.</p><p>Esty Dwek, head of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers, said: \"Global vaccinations are accelerating, major central banks remain very accommodative, fiscal support remains, and corporate earnings continue to recover. In such an environment, it's hard to imagine a very negative scenario for the stock market.\"</p><p>Of course, pitfalls abound. Here are some of the factors that keep investors hooked on stocks despite the risks:</p><p>One reason behind the stock market rally is that government bond yields in developed markets have remained subdued and credit spreads have narrowed to their lowest levels in more than a decade, and the appeal of stocks is highlighted in contrast.</p><p>Second, as the global economy redevelops, a large amount of pent-up demand explodes in a concentrated manner. Goldman Sachs strategists said recently that the surge in U.S. money market fund assets to a record $5.5 trillion during the pandemic indicated that there was a lot of cash on the sidelines.</p><p>Carsten Roemheld, strategist at Fidelity International Capital Markets, said: \"Many indicators suggest that there is still overwhelming liquidity in the system that is looking for homes.\" Roemheld added that money will continue to flow into equities given the strong support of central banks around the world, but expectations for returns from now on should be much lower.</p><p>Looking ahead, investors overall prefer cyclical and value stocks, which will benefit the most from the rebound in economic growth. On the regional front, many institutional investors say they prefer Europe.</p><p><b>Relatively loose liquidity</b></p><p>While markets worried last month that the Fed would tighten liquidity sooner than expected, investors still don't think the central bank will be rate hike anytime soon, or at least not too soon.</p><p>Overall, market participants expect central bank policy to remain accommodative to support an economy emerging from the pandemic.</p><p>\"For now, global monetary and fiscal policy remains accommodative, and it will actually be a while before interest rates start to rise,\" said Ben Lofthouse, head of global equity income at Janus Henderson Investors.</p><p><b>Corporate Earnings Recovery</b></p><p>Many investors believe the return to earnings growth is key to driving the stock market up. Globally, profit estimates have recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with nearly 50% of S&P 500 components raising their full-year outlook in the past three months, the highest percentage since 2010.</p><p>\"Better advice going forward alone will no longer work and investors will need some real evidence of growth or free cash flow,\" said Max Anderl, a portfolio manager at UBS Asset Management in London.</p><p><b>Vaccination advances in an orderly manner</b></p><p>While the emergence of more transmissible variants of the virus is a big risk, progress on vaccination programs in developed countries has kept investors calm.</p><p>\"We continue to see success in vaccination and economic reopening as key drivers for improving economic and earnings outlook and ultimately stock market gains,\" said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets.</p><p>Given that reopening optimism has largely been priced in, though, generating stock returns could be more difficult. Seema, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Global Investors</p><p>Shah said investors need to be more careful about choosing the region, industry and style they choose.</p><p>\"On the equity side, cyclical and value stocks will continue to benefit from a possible surge in consumer spending, but investors should also consider stocks with long-term growth, such as large-cap tech stocks,\"</p><p>Shah said in the email, adding that the companies would benefit from enterprise migration to cloud computing and reliance on technology.</p><p><i>(This article was translated from bloomberg, link to the original article: https: / /www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-04/investors-don-t-see-end-to-record-breaking-equity-rally-just-yet? srnd = markets-vp)</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Stocks Continue to Set Records, Do Investors Need to Be Alert?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Stocks Continue to Set Records, Do Investors Need to Be Alert?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-05 12:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">NASDAQ</a>Exponential and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&P 500</a>The index continues to hit new highs as the world's top fund managers continue to send bull signals-get used to it and say stocks will continue to rise in the second half of the year. Companies such as BlackRock Inc., State Street Global Markets, UBS Asset Management and JPMorgan Asset Management expect stock markets to continue to rise in the second half of the year, though, a growing number of investors will seek opportunities to bring more returns in markets outside the U.S.</p><p>While the MSCI Global Index has risen 12% this year to a record high, the appeal of stocks has proven irresistible amid a sustained economic rebound. While some market participants are cautious about downside risks given strong valuations, a sharp rebound in corporate earnings and strong central bank support are expected to keep the rally alive.</p><p>Esty Dwek, head of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers, said: \"Global vaccinations are accelerating, major central banks remain very accommodative, fiscal support remains, and corporate earnings continue to recover. In such an environment, it's hard to imagine a very negative scenario for the stock market.\"</p><p>Of course, pitfalls abound. Here are some of the factors that keep investors hooked on stocks despite the risks:</p><p>One reason behind the stock market rally is that government bond yields in developed markets have remained subdued and credit spreads have narrowed to their lowest levels in more than a decade, and the appeal of stocks is highlighted in contrast.</p><p>Second, as the global economy redevelops, a large amount of pent-up demand explodes in a concentrated manner. Goldman Sachs strategists said recently that the surge in U.S. money market fund assets to a record $5.5 trillion during the pandemic indicated that there was a lot of cash on the sidelines.</p><p>Carsten Roemheld, strategist at Fidelity International Capital Markets, said: \"Many indicators suggest that there is still overwhelming liquidity in the system that is looking for homes.\" Roemheld added that money will continue to flow into equities given the strong support of central banks around the world, but expectations for returns from now on should be much lower.</p><p>Looking ahead, investors overall prefer cyclical and value stocks, which will benefit the most from the rebound in economic growth. On the regional front, many institutional investors say they prefer Europe.</p><p><b>Relatively loose liquidity</b></p><p>While markets worried last month that the Fed would tighten liquidity sooner than expected, investors still don't think the central bank will be rate hike anytime soon, or at least not too soon.</p><p>Overall, market participants expect central bank policy to remain accommodative to support an economy emerging from the pandemic.</p><p>\"For now, global monetary and fiscal policy remains accommodative, and it will actually be a while before interest rates start to rise,\" said Ben Lofthouse, head of global equity income at Janus Henderson Investors.</p><p><b>Corporate Earnings Recovery</b></p><p>Many investors believe the return to earnings growth is key to driving the stock market up. Globally, profit estimates have recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with nearly 50% of S&P 500 components raising their full-year outlook in the past three months, the highest percentage since 2010.</p><p>\"Better advice going forward alone will no longer work and investors will need some real evidence of growth or free cash flow,\" said Max Anderl, a portfolio manager at UBS Asset Management in London.</p><p><b>Vaccination advances in an orderly manner</b></p><p>While the emergence of more transmissible variants of the virus is a big risk, progress on vaccination programs in developed countries has kept investors calm.</p><p>\"We continue to see success in vaccination and economic reopening as key drivers for improving economic and earnings outlook and ultimately stock market gains,\" said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets.</p><p>Given that reopening optimism has largely been priced in, though, generating stock returns could be more difficult. Seema, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Global Investors</p><p>Shah said investors need to be more careful about choosing the region, industry and style they choose.</p><p>\"On the equity side, cyclical and value stocks will continue to benefit from a possible surge in consumer spending, but investors should also consider stocks with long-term growth, such as large-cap tech stocks,\"</p><p>Shah said in the email, adding that the companies would benefit from enterprise migration to cloud computing and reliance on technology.</p><p><i>(This article was translated from bloomberg, link to the original article: https: / /www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-04/investors-don-t-see-end-to-record-breaking-equity-rally-just-yet? srnd = markets-vp)</i></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4761e48f6528ce5e469e86fff3365b4","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172687898","content_text":"在纳斯达克 指数和标普500 指数不断创新高之际，世界顶级基金经理仍在不断传递牛市信号——习惯它，并称下半年股市将继续上涨。贝莱德公司、道富环球市场、瑞银资产管理和摩根大通资产管理等公司预计下半年股市将继续上涨，不过，越来越多的投资者将在美国以外的市场寻求带来更多回报的机会。\n尽管 MSCI全球指数今年已经上涨了 12%，创下历史新高，但事实证明，在经济持续反弹的情况下，股票的吸引力仍然难以抗拒。虽然鉴于强劲的估值，一些市场参与者对下跌风险持谨慎态度，但预计企业盈利的大幅反弹和央行的强劲支持将使涨势保持活力。\nNatixis Investment Managers全球市场策略主管 Esty Dwek表示：“全球疫苗接种正在加速，主要央行仍然非常宽松，财政支持仍然存在，企业盈利继续复苏。在这样的环境下，很难想象股市会出现非常负面的情况。”\n当然，陷阱比比皆是。以下是一些尽管存在风险，但仍使投资者对股票着迷的因素：\n股市上涨背后的一个原因是，发达市场的政府债券收益率仍然低迷且信用利差收窄至十多年来的最低水平，对比之下，股票的吸引力就凸显出来了。\n其次，随着全球经济重新开发，大量被压抑的需求集中爆发。高盛策略师近日表示，疫情期间，美国货币市场基金资产激增至创纪录的 5.5万亿美元，表明有大量现金处于观望状态。\n富达国际资本市场策略师 Carsten Roemheld表示：“许多指标表明，正在寻找房屋的系统中仍然存在压倒性的流动性。”Roemheld补充说，鉴于全球央行的大力支持，资金将继续流入股市，但从现在开始的回报预期应该会低得多。\n展望未来，投资者整体偏好周期股和价值股，这两类股票将从经济增长的反弹中受益最大。在地区方面，许多机构投资者表示更喜欢欧洲。\n流动性相对宽松\n尽管上个月市场担心美联储将比预期更快地收紧流动性，但投资者仍然认为央行不会很快加息，或者至少不会太快。\n总体而言，市场参与者预计央行政策将保持宽松，以支持摆脱被疫情重创的经济。\n“就目前而言，全球货币政策和财政政策仍然宽松，实际上，利率开始上升还需要一段时间，”Janus Henderson Investors全球股票收益主管本·洛夫特豪斯 (Ben Lofthouse)表示。\n企业盈利恢复\n许多投资者认为，盈利恢复增长是推动股市上涨的关键。在全球范围内，利润预期已回升至大流行前水平，近 50%的标准普尔 500成分股在过去三个月中上调了全年展望，这是自 2010年以来，最高比例的上调。\n瑞银资产管理驻伦敦的投资组合经理 Max Anderl表示：“仅凭未来更好的建议将不再奏效，投资者将需要一些增长或自由现金流的真实证据。”\n疫苗接种有序推进\n虽然出现更高传播性的病毒变种是一个很大的风险，但发达国家在疫苗接种计划方面取得的进展让投资者保持冷静。\n“我们仍将疫苗接种和经济重新开放方面的成功视为改善经济和盈利前景以及最终股市上涨的关键推动力，”道富环球市场高级多元资产策略师Marija Veitmane表示。\n不过，考虑到重新开放的乐观情绪在很大程度上已被消化，产生股票回报可能会更加困难。 Principal Global Investors的首席全球策略师 Seema\nShah表示，投资者需要更加谨慎地选择他们选择的地区、行业和风格。\n“在股票方面，周期股和价值股将继续受益于消费者支出可能激增，但投资者也应考虑长期增长的股票，例如大型科技股，”\nShah在电子邮件中表示，并补充说这些公司将受益于企业向云计算的迁移和对技术的依赖。\n（本文翻译自彭博社，原文链接：https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-04/investors-don-t-see-end-to-record-breaking-equity-rally-just-yet?srnd=markets-vp）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155670550,"gmtCreate":1625426341470,"gmtModify":1703741511489,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155670550","repostId":"2148804970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148804970","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625283118,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148804970?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 11:31","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148804970","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减","content":"<p>OPEC + suspended its meeting for the second day in a row on Friday as the stalemate continued.</p><p>Previously, OPEC + had reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and reach a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the duration of the overall OPEC + agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE \"turned its face\" at the last minute and demanded an increase in the crude oil baseline on which the country was based when cutting production. The new change will allow it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. The dramatic reversal caused OPEC + to have to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that the UAE is not opposed to increasing production, but hopes that the new agreement will recognize that its production reduction begins with a higher production benchmark.</p><p>The UAE said it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure in good faith, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger\", and that the UAE would lose even more if the cut agreement did not end as planned in April 2022. So it wants to raise its production benchmark to 3.84 million barrels per day from the current 3.168 million barrels per day,<b>Higher benchmarks mean lower real production cuts, that is, the UAE wants to ramp up production itself to speed up.</b></p><p>The UAE has long laid out ambitious plans to ramp up production and has invested billions in increasing capacity, with the OPEC + cut deal leaving about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Nigeria, among others, have requested and raised production benchmarks since the cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. Late last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that in terms of data, other oil-producing countries all experienced a decline in production between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's requirement to adjust the production benchmark would create market chaos and invalidate \"the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market\", which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly oppose the requirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market welcomed the initial agreement of OPEC + as a whole. At present, the market generally expects that the demand for crude oil will increase by 6 million barrels per day compared with the same period of last year, and OPEC +' s current production increase plan will not bring inventory disturbance.</p><p>Due to the uncertain prospect of negotiations, the crude oil market is basically on the wait-and-see attitude at present. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the requirements of the UAE,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to open<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC + countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Considering that there is no progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement at present, the decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement to 2022 will boost the rise of crude oil prices.</p><p>But Croft warned that a breakdown in talks would upend the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing Covid pandemic.</p><p>There are also certain differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil producers of OPEC +.</p><p>In the run-up to this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as higher oil prices are encouraging growth in shale production from rival U.S. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, on the grounds that COVID-19 and its variants bring great uncertainty, and there should be no rush to increase production substantially before evidence of a real recovery in demand is released.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production scale and Russia's eagerness to reach an agreement to increase production are not impossible for the OPEC + production reduction agreement to completely collapse. At that time, all countries can increase production at will, and OPEC + will enter an era of doing its own thing.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC + Production Increase Talks Frozen, What Does It Mean for Oil Prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OPEC + suspended its meeting for the second day in a row on Friday as the stalemate continued.</p><p>Previously, OPEC + had reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, and reach a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the duration of the overall OPEC + agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE \"turned its face\" at the last minute and demanded an increase in the crude oil baseline on which the country was based when cutting production. The new change will allow it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. The dramatic reversal caused OPEC + to have to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that the UAE is not opposed to increasing production, but hopes that the new agreement will recognize that its production reduction begins with a higher production benchmark.</p><p>The UAE said it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure in good faith, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger\", and that the UAE would lose even more if the cut agreement did not end as planned in April 2022. So it wants to raise its production benchmark to 3.84 million barrels per day from the current 3.168 million barrels per day,<b>Higher benchmarks mean lower real production cuts, that is, the UAE wants to ramp up production itself to speed up.</b></p><p>The UAE has long laid out ambitious plans to ramp up production and has invested billions in increasing capacity, with the OPEC + cut deal leaving about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Nigeria, among others, have requested and raised production benchmarks since the cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. Late last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that in terms of data, other oil-producing countries all experienced a decline in production between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's requirement to adjust the production benchmark would create market chaos and invalidate \"the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market\", which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly oppose the requirement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market welcomed the initial agreement of OPEC + as a whole. At present, the market generally expects that the demand for crude oil will increase by 6 million barrels per day compared with the same period of last year, and OPEC +' s current production increase plan will not bring inventory disturbance.</p><p>Due to the uncertain prospect of negotiations, the crude oil market is basically on the wait-and-see attitude at present. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the requirements of the UAE,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to open<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC + countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Considering that there is no progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement at present, the decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement to 2022 will boost the rise of crude oil prices.</p><p>But Croft warned that a breakdown in talks would upend the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing Covid pandemic.</p><p>There are also certain differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil producers of OPEC +.</p><p>In the run-up to this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as higher oil prices are encouraging growth in shale production from rival U.S. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, on the grounds that COVID-19 and its variants bring great uncertainty, and there should be no rush to increase production substantially before evidence of a real recovery in demand is released.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production scale and Russia's eagerness to reach an agreement to increase production are not impossible for the OPEC + production reduction agreement to completely collapse. At that time, all countries can increase production at will, and OPEC + will enter an era of doing its own thing.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01e4b782ba393cb7794f7764a5d7d90","relate_stocks":{"DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148804970","content_text":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减产的最终期限延长至2022年12月。\n但阿联酋在最后一刻“翻脸”，要求上调该国减产时依据的原油基线，新的变动将允许其额外生产70万桶/日。这一戏剧性反转导致OPEC+不得不推迟全体会议以解决内部纠纷。\n阿联酋要什么？\n华尔街见闻此前提及，阿联酋并不反对增产，但希望新协议承认其减产开始时依据的产量基准更高。\n阿联酋称该国此前出于善意同意了一个非常低的基准数字，令其减产规模“不成比例地更大”，如果减产协议不能按计划在2022年4月结束，阿联酋的损失将更大。因此它希望将产量基准从当前的316.8万桶/日上调至384万桶/日，较高的基准意味着较低的实际减产量，即阿联酋希望自己增产提速。\n阿联酋早就制定了雄心勃勃的增产计划，并已投资数十亿美元提高产能，OPEC+减产协议使其约30%的产能闲置。阿联酋认为，阿塞拜疆、科威特、哈萨克斯坦和尼日利亚等自去年减产协议达成以来，已经要求并提高了产量基准，自己的请求也应被允许。去年底，阿联酋曾威胁退出OPEC。\n独立石油分析师 Anas Alhajji 解释称，在数据方面，其他产油国在2018年10月至2020年4月期间都经历了产量下降，阿联酋调整产量基准的要求会造成市场混乱，使“创造原油市场稳定和清晰的目标无效”，这也是沙特和俄罗斯极力反对该要求的原因。\n\n这对油价会产生什么影响？\n市场对于OPEC+的最初协议整体持欢迎态度。目前市场普遍预期原油需求较去年同期将增长600万桶/日，OPEC+目前的增产计划不会带来库存方面的扰动。\n由于谈判前景不明，目前原油市场基本持观望态度。布伦特原油及WTI原油周五均小幅震荡。\n\n对于阿联酋的要求，瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo指出，任何调整生产配额的请求都像是打开了潘多拉魔盒 ，其他OPEC+国家也可能要求进行类似调整。\n加拿大皇家银行分析师Helima Croft认为，阿联酋的问题可能会通过沙特和阿联酋的高层会谈解决。考虑目前美伊核协议目前暂无进展，将OPEC+协议的期限延长至2022年的决定将对原油价格上涨起到助推作用。\n但Croft警告称，考虑到新冠疫情仍在持续，谈判破裂将颠覆油价目前的上涨势头。\nOPEC+两大产油国沙特及俄罗斯也存在一定分歧。\n在本周会议的筹备过程中，俄罗斯坚持向市场释放更多石油，因为油价上涨正鼓励竞争对手美国页岩油产量的增长。而沙特希望更谨慎增产，理由是新冠病毒及变种带来很大的不确定性，在需求切实复苏的证据出炉前不应急着大幅增产。\n阿联酋坚决要求扩大自身增产规模，以及俄罗斯迫切希望达成增产协议等多重因素，令OPEC+减产协议完全破裂也不无可能，那时所有国家都可以随心所欲地增产，OPEC+将进入各行其是的时代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDG":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":120045728,"gmtCreate":1624289997264,"gmtModify":1703832686394,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120045728","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"content":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stock.","text":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stock.","html":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stock."},{"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"content":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stoc","text":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stoc","html":"When it comes to trading, the decision of when to buy a stock can sometimes be easier than knowing when is the appropriate time to sell a stoc"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144339062,"gmtCreate":1626266815256,"gmtModify":1703756653274,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144339062","repostId":"2151593458","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151593458","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626228999,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151593458?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 10:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The time has come to test the Federal Reserve as U.S. inflation fever persists","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151593458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国6月物价再度爆表，美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚，以及货币政策将如何作出应对，成为市场关注的焦点。北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示，美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值，多项数据创新高。今年以来，美国通胀节节走高，但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”，随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求，通胀将消退。当地时间周三和周四，美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。","content":"<p>In June, prices in the United States exploded again. Whether the Federal Reserve's \"temporary inflation theory\" can still stand and how monetary policy will respond has become the focus of market attention.</p><p>According to the data released on Tuesday evening, Beijing time, the CPI and core CPI in the United States in June were higher than expected and previous values month-on-month and year-on-year, and many data reached record highs. Among them, CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, the highest increase since August 2008, well above the 5% increase in May and the 4.9% increase previously predicted by economists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c1b19fafe4fccf8df811ab9531e0be\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p>Industries directly affected by the pandemic saw the biggest price increases, with travel-related expenses such as airfares soaring, and semiconductor shortages also causing used used car prices to soar. Used car prices rose 10.5% month-over-month in June, contributing a third of last month's CPI jump, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p><p>After the data was released, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's rate hike rose sharply, the yield of U.S. bonds jumped intraday, and the yield curve flattened. Under the threat of inflation, the US dollar further strengthened, approaching a three-month high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e83a31c11d1be5a229daf643f2d3ae\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Challenges for the Fed</h2>U.S. inflation has been steadily higher this year, but the Federal Reserve has insisted that price increases are only \"temporary\" and that inflation will subside as pandemic lockdowns ease further and supply catches up with pent-up demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce1f249aafa91beb78c3bda811d915d\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed predicted that its favored core measure of inflation would rise 3% this year and fall back to 2.1% in 2022.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve last month released a hawkish signal that surprised the market, hinting at two rate hike in 2023. The minutes of the meeting show that the Fed has started to discuss Taper matter internally, but no consensus can be reached, and the discussion will continue in the future.</p><p>But Tuesday's unexpectedly high inflation data could put pressure on the Fed to consider reducing asset purchases at a faster pace than previously anticipated, slowing monetary stimulus.</p><p>Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Tuesday that with the U.S. economy growing at a 7% rate and the pandemic getting better and better contained, it is now time to remove the Fed's stimulus measures. Bullard has long been known as a \"dovish\", and his hawkish remarks have attracted high attention in the market.</p><p>But President of the New York Fed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>On Monday, the U.S. economy has not yet met the conditions for the Federal Reserve to reduce the size of asset purchases. San Francisco Fed President Daly also warned last Friday that due to the continued spread of the Delta variant, exiting the stimulus plan too early will pose great risks.</p><p>On Wednesday and Thursday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be questioned by members of Congress. Investors will pay close attention to whether Powell will release a signal to start discussing tapering asset purchases at the July Fed meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Netherlands International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist at Group (ING), said there appears to be no reason for the Fed to proceed with its quantitative easing plan to buy $120 billion in assets a month, and we will look for hints about the impending taper from Powell's testimony, as well as from the Jackson Hole meeting in August.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>If the Fed sticks to its average inflation target, making the timing of rate hike exceed market expectations, it could mean increased interest rate volatility in the future, analysts wrote in a note Tuesday.</p><p>Wells Fargo analysts pointed out that the Fed will face more challenges in communication in the future. On the one hand, it hopes to continue to be patient; on the other hand, the market does not seem to \"buy\" the Fed's new strategy of treating inflation. These contradictions should aggravate the future volatility of the macro market.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The time has come to test the Federal Reserve as U.S. inflation fever persists</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe time has come to test the Federal Reserve as U.S. inflation fever persists\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In June, prices in the United States exploded again. Whether the Federal Reserve's \"temporary inflation theory\" can still stand and how monetary policy will respond has become the focus of market attention.</p><p>According to the data released on Tuesday evening, Beijing time, the CPI and core CPI in the United States in June were higher than expected and previous values month-on-month and year-on-year, and many data reached record highs. Among them, CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, the highest increase since August 2008, well above the 5% increase in May and the 4.9% increase previously predicted by economists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c1b19fafe4fccf8df811ab9531e0be\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p>Industries directly affected by the pandemic saw the biggest price increases, with travel-related expenses such as airfares soaring, and semiconductor shortages also causing used used car prices to soar. Used car prices rose 10.5% month-over-month in June, contributing a third of last month's CPI jump, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p><p>After the data was released, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's rate hike rose sharply, the yield of U.S. bonds jumped intraday, and the yield curve flattened. Under the threat of inflation, the US dollar further strengthened, approaching a three-month high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e83a31c11d1be5a229daf643f2d3ae\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Challenges for the Fed</h2>U.S. inflation has been steadily higher this year, but the Federal Reserve has insisted that price increases are only \"temporary\" and that inflation will subside as pandemic lockdowns ease further and supply catches up with pent-up demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce1f249aafa91beb78c3bda811d915d\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed predicted that its favored core measure of inflation would rise 3% this year and fall back to 2.1% in 2022.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve last month released a hawkish signal that surprised the market, hinting at two rate hike in 2023. The minutes of the meeting show that the Fed has started to discuss Taper matter internally, but no consensus can be reached, and the discussion will continue in the future.</p><p>But Tuesday's unexpectedly high inflation data could put pressure on the Fed to consider reducing asset purchases at a faster pace than previously anticipated, slowing monetary stimulus.</p><p>Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Tuesday that with the U.S. economy growing at a 7% rate and the pandemic getting better and better contained, it is now time to remove the Fed's stimulus measures. Bullard has long been known as a \"dovish\", and his hawkish remarks have attracted high attention in the market.</p><p>But President of the New York Fed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>On Monday, the U.S. economy has not yet met the conditions for the Federal Reserve to reduce the size of asset purchases. San Francisco Fed President Daly also warned last Friday that due to the continued spread of the Delta variant, exiting the stimulus plan too early will pose great risks.</p><p>On Wednesday and Thursday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be questioned by members of Congress. Investors will pay close attention to whether Powell will release a signal to start discussing tapering asset purchases at the July Fed meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Netherlands International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist at Group (ING), said there appears to be no reason for the Fed to proceed with its quantitative easing plan to buy $120 billion in assets a month, and we will look for hints about the impending taper from Powell's testimony, as well as from the Jackson Hole meeting in August.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>If the Fed sticks to its average inflation target, making the timing of rate hike exceed market expectations, it could mean increased interest rate volatility in the future, analysts wrote in a note Tuesday.</p><p>Wells Fargo analysts pointed out that the Fed will face more challenges in communication in the future. On the one hand, it hopes to continue to be patient; on the other hand, the market does not seem to \"buy\" the Fed's new strategy of treating inflation. These contradictions should aggravate the future volatility of the macro market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635336\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd1549a90968778a7afdc56cd660b1b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635336","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151593458","content_text":"美国6月物价再度爆表，美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚，以及货币政策将如何作出应对，成为市场关注的焦点。\n北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示，美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值，多项数据创新高。其中CPI同比上涨5.4%，创下2008年8月以来的最高涨幅，远高于5月份的5%和经济学家此前预测的4.9%的涨幅。\n\n（图片来源：Zerohedge）\n受疫情直接影响的行业的价格涨幅最大，机票等差旅相关费用飙升，半导体短缺也导致二手车价格飙升。美国劳工统计局的数据显示，6月二手车价格环比上涨了10.5%，贡献了上个月CPI上涨的三分之一涨幅。\n数据公布后，市场对美联储加息预期陡升，美债收益率盘中跃升，收益率曲线趋平。通胀威胁下，美元进一步走强，逼近三个月来高位。\n\n（图片来源：Zerohedge）\n美联储面临的挑战\n今年以来，美国通胀节节走高，但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”，随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求，通胀将消退。\n\n在6月的FOMC会议上，美联储预测，其青睐的核心通胀指标今年将上升3%，2022年将回落至2.1%。\n货币政策方面，美联储上月释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，暗示2023年会有两次加息。会议纪要显示，美联储内部已经开始讨论Taper事宜，不过无法达成共识，未来将继续讨论。\n但周二意外高企的通胀数据可能会给美联储带来压力，迫使其考虑以比此前预期更快的速度减少资产购买，从而放缓货币刺激。\n美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德周二表示，随着美国经济以7%的速度增长，以及疫情得到越来越好的控制，现在是取消美联储的刺激措施了。布拉德一直以来以“鸽派”著称，他的鹰派言论引发了市场高度关注。\n但纽约联储行长威廉姆斯周一称，美国经济尚未达到美联储减少资产购买规模的条件。旧金山联储总裁戴利也在上周五警告，由于Delta变种毒株持续蔓延，过早退出刺激计划将造成极大的风险。\n当地时间周三和周四，美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。投资者将密切关注鲍威尔会否释放在7月美联储会议上开始讨论缩减资产购买规模的信号。\n荷兰国际集团(ING)首席国际经济学家James Knightley表示，美联储似乎没有理由继续每月购买1200亿美元资产的量化宽松计划，我们将从鲍威尔的证词以及8月杰克逊霍尔会议上寻找有关即将缩减规模的暗示。\n富国银行分析们在周二的一份报告中写道，如果美联储坚守平均通胀目标，使得加息的时点超过市场预期，那么这可能意味着未来利率波动将加剧。\n富国分析师们指出，未来美联储在沟通方面将面临更多挑战，一方面它希望能够继续保持耐心，另一方面市场对美联储对待通胀的新策略似乎并不“买账”，这些矛盾应该会加剧宏观市场未来的波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150796024,"gmtCreate":1624926937768,"gmtModify":1703848017571,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Plw like amd comment","listText":"Plw like amd comment","text":"Plw like amd comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150796024","repostId":"1140002900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111087931,"gmtCreate":1622644620523,"gmtModify":1704187993872,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/111087931","repostId":"1188552613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188552613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622627641,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188552613?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-02 17:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188552613","media":"Barrons","summary":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, th","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;and&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;into speculative territory.</p>\n<p>But it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.</p>\n<p>Shares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office.&nbsp;Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Even if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.</p>\n<p>AMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.</p>\n<p>So, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.</p>\n<p>Back then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.</p>\n<p>The upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.</p>\n<p>In those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.</p>\n<p>Maybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.</p>\n<p>If AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.</p>\n<p>Then, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&amp;P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.</p>\n<p>There are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.</p>\n<p>Also, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.</p>\n<p>AMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.</p>\n<p>There is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.</p>\n<p>AMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.</p>\n<p>Wall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.</p>\n<p>Analysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.</p>\n<p>And that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 17:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of GameStop and BlackBerry into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188552613","content_text":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of GameStop and BlackBerry into speculative territory.\nBut it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.\nShares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office. Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.\nEven if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.\nAMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.\nSo, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.\nBack then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.\nThe upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.\nIn those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.\nMaybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.\nIf AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.\nThen, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.\nThere are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.\nAlso, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.\nAMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.\nThere is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.\nAMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.\nWall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.\nAnalysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.\nAnd that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178180866,"gmtCreate":1626791740555,"gmtModify":1703765330922,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178180866","repostId":"1168215370","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147870589,"gmtCreate":1626353164641,"gmtModify":1703758460728,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147870589","repostId":"2151217519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151217519","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626315521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151217519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 10:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The window of the bull market is closing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151217519","media":"格隆汇","summary":"且行且珍惜","content":"<p>The chairman of the Federal Reserve has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>Economic data is constantly betting on the other side, though.</p><p>On July 13th, local time, the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in June increased by 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both greatly exceeding the market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, and at the same time setting the highest record since November 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even considering the low base caused by last year's pandemic, the deterioration in inflation data is still visible to the naked eye, with core CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices rising as much as 4.5% year-on-year. However, through the previous foreshadowing, the reaction of the capital market has become more and more flat. Last night, the three major US stock indexes only dropped slightly by about 0.3%, and the US debt and gold did not change much.</p><p>Whether markets continue to believe Powell's rhetoric or not, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing to stimulate the economy is increasingly fierce for the Fed.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>While it's too early to talk about rate hike, it's fitting to start talking about tapering.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>When will Taper, who has been shouting for months, come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at \"expectation adjustment\", and it releases signals to the market from time to time. Hawkish and dovish, and the wind can be released for a full year, giving investors enough time to prevent and hedge. After repeating it several times, more than half of the people gambling with policies have fallen, and the Fed's turn has been much smoother.</p><p>Since the U.S. CPI crossed the safe boundary of 2% in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will Taper its bond purchases or even rate hike within the year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, and short-term inflation can be tolerated until these two goals are completed, it is not ruled out that persistent excessive inflation will change the attitude of the FED.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Fed's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this. Whether it is necessary to take immediate action no longer depends on how big the inflationary pressure is, but how the Fed judges.</p><p>According to the monetary policy report released by the Federal Reserve on July 9th, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, and the surge in labor demand exceeds the recovery of labor supply; Supply chain bottlenecks have eased, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories suggest that supply chain pressures are still not small.</p><p>Regardless of the position of Fed officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four kinds. The inflation data for four consecutive months has constantly moved the expected turning point of the market forward. If the PPI data released next also greatly exceeds expectations, and the pressure on the production side continues to be transmitted to the consumer side, it will further deepen the market's worries, and the expectation of the withdrawal action will continue to advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the more accepted view is that the Fed will throw a taper signal at the annual symposium at Jackson Hole in August. It is expected that it will be mainly hinted and released. When will it land, the forecasts of Fed officials and institutions will be concentrated at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Before that, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is sure that the inflection point of global liquidity will eventually come.</p><p><b>At this juncture, the domestic central bank unexpectedly cut the RRR again, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trend, the reason makes sense.</b></p><p>Due to the large recovery poor in various countries in last year's epidemic, China's rapid recovery, and its huge and perfect manufacturing supply capacity, it received a wave of foreign trade dividends, and its rapid economic growth was due to a large number of overseas export orders. However, now, with the epidemic control and the improvement of vaccination rate in developed countries in the United States and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to flow back, and the foreign trade demand for China will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months show that while the global manufacturing PMI boom has strengthened, China's new export orders have dropped significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this background, the downward pressure on China's economy has become the consensus of all parties, and the currency has been loosened again, just to hedge this impact in advance.</p><p>However, in the past 10 years, the average interest rate spread between China and the United States was 133BP. In September last year, the interest rate spread between China and the United States was 235BP, but now it is only 155 BP. From this perspective, the space for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States starts to collect water, the flexibility space of monetary policy will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nowadays, the mismatch of monetary policies between China and the United States has caused new concerns in the market. How much room do we have to maneuver and deploy?</p><p>However, yesterday, Sun Guofeng, director of the monetary policy department of the central bank, expressed his views,<b>He believes that the discussion on the Fed's monetary policy shift will have less impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Ten years of pursuit of monetary independence, has it come true?</b></h3>We might as well look back at what has happened over the past 20 years.</p><p>After joining the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence between China and the United States has deepened, and everything seems to be developing in a bright direction. China's GDP growth rate has exceeded 10% year after year, becoming a veritable world's factory, and the United States has been able to continue to play finance and real estate.</p><p>But, in 2008, it all came to an abrupt end.</p><p>A severe financial crisis broke out in the United States, and it quickly swept the world. China also suffered deeply from it, and rushed to launch a \"four trillion\" rescue plan. This has triggered a \"crack\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what has gone wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>The United States believes that after China's accession to the WTO, it has removed its own manufacturing industry more recklessly, and the emptiness of the real economy has led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially finance, which is the root cause of the crisis. Therefore, Obama shouted the banner of the return of manufacturing industry.</p><p>China, on the other hand, has a more subtle attitude. The United States relies too much on the status of the US dollar, debt expansion and other ways to develop its economy, which determines that the cyclical fluctuation of the US dollar will be severe. However, the United States can use the world to hedge the fluctuation of the US dollar, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those deeply bound to the United States. The monetary policy can only be passively followed, and it has a good life when the US dollar expands, but when the US dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a violent economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed the WTO dividend for many years, and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy\". With the coming of the economic crisis, the demand in Europe and America declined rapidly, and the foreign trade plunged. Accompanied by the closure of a large number of export manufacturing industries and the rapid expansion of the unemployed population, this is the embodiment.</p><p><b>In a country as large and populous as China, stability is more important than anything else.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China has also started a series of adjustments, the most important of which is to go its own way. To put it more bluntly, it is to find a way to pull away from the lessons learned by over-binding the United States.</p><p>As for the specific practices, the belt and road initiative is one, infrastructure + real estate is one, and the shift from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is also one, and<b>The adjustment of monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to try to do foreign trade with some neighboring countries, directly using people's settlement, which promoted the rapid increase of international use of RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan. In 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, with the \"811 Exchange Reform\", RMB changed from a single peg to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving them corresponding weights, and forming a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, the changes of RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, so as to maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and form a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it is a shift from \"single anchor\" to \"multiple anchor\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a lot of prices. For example, after the \"811 exchange reform\", the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly, and coupled with the loopholes in foreign exchange control, countless enterprises took advantage of this loophole to constantly arbitrage and export overseas, and China lost 900 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the whole, the results are still great. At least, China has gradually shown its independence in the choice of monetary policy. This might be the confidence that Secretary Sun was talking about.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What does the mismatch of currencies between China and the United States bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered the rate hike cycle, and emerging economies were almost wiped out, and some countries were particularly tragic. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa and Turkey all dropped to record lows, and Brazil's GDP dropped the largest in history.</p><p><b>As the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the opportunity and took the initiative to defend, the depreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar remained at a low level in emerging markets, avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the United States and Europe tended to synchronize; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the rhythm of the People's Bank of China divorced from that of the United States and Europe, and it was one step ahead of the withdrawal and release of water.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held 9 joint rate hike, and the Federal Funds rate increased to 2.25%-2.50%. At this time, China is cutting interest rates. On March 1st, May 11th, June 28th and August 26th, 2015, the benchmark interest rate of one-year loans was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the benchmark interest rate of one-year deposits was also lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75% many times. The benchmark interest rates of other grades of loans and deposits and the interest rates of individual housing provident fund deposits and loans will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>During the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve once again released water, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches are not deliberate pursuits, but more decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it was necessary to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, through rapid epidemic prevention and control, export dividends replaced the old road of purely relying on monetary stimulus. This RRR cut also has the meaning of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely ignoring the Federal Reserve. After all, the locomotive of the global economy is still the United States, and it is precisely that we want to balance the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with problems such as RMB depreciation pressure and capital outflow if the Federal Reserve tightens the liquidity rhythm greatly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressure.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expected. Externally, facing the risk of export reduction, the monetary aspect needs to worry about the pressure brought by the Fed's currency inflection point, and the window of relatively loose liquidity is limited; Internally, the investment motivation is insufficient, and the effect of the internal circular economy driven by consumption with high hopes is not remarkable enough. Once the funds are tightened, many small and medium-sized enterprises will face the shortage of demand and funds like last year.</p><p>Under the combined action of internal and external pressures, the next action that the central bank is more likely to take on monetary policy may not be to relax liquidity or join the ranks of obvious tightening, but more likely to be total amount control, structural adjustment, directional guidance, strict control of the idling of supervision funds, and truly guide liquidity to where it really should go, such as small and medium-sized micro, people's livelihood economy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovation and Technology</a>Green economy, etc.</p><p>Now the state has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and people's consumption economy, and its kinetic energy is also very strong. From this, we can also imagine that any obstacles that affect the realization of this goal will continue to be suppressed and cleaned up, such as real estate speculation, antitrust, education, medical care and so on.</p><p>However, in either case, it may not be a very optimistic situation for the capital market.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>This thing of stock price depends on the industry in the long term, fundamentals in the medium term and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to now, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and Big A has also changed from general rise to differentiation.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the figure below-differentiation is happening. If the next currency is really tight, then the fourth quadrant-the capital market with mourning will probably repeat itself, but the extent is a question.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When investing, we should decide to stay or go with the worst expectations, and listen to the thunder in a silent place.</p><p>As for investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunity may not be running out.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The window of the bull market is closing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe window of the bull market is closing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 10:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The chairman of the Federal Reserve has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>Economic data is constantly betting on the other side, though.</p><p>On July 13th, local time, the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in June increased by 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both greatly exceeding the market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, and at the same time setting the highest record since November 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even considering the low base caused by last year's pandemic, the deterioration in inflation data is still visible to the naked eye, with core CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices rising as much as 4.5% year-on-year. However, through the previous foreshadowing, the reaction of the capital market has become more and more flat. Last night, the three major US stock indexes only dropped slightly by about 0.3%, and the US debt and gold did not change much.</p><p>Whether markets continue to believe Powell's rhetoric or not, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing to stimulate the economy is increasingly fierce for the Fed.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>While it's too early to talk about rate hike, it's fitting to start talking about tapering.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>When will Taper, who has been shouting for months, come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at \"expectation adjustment\", and it releases signals to the market from time to time. Hawkish and dovish, and the wind can be released for a full year, giving investors enough time to prevent and hedge. After repeating it several times, more than half of the people gambling with policies have fallen, and the Fed's turn has been much smoother.</p><p>Since the U.S. CPI crossed the safe boundary of 2% in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will Taper its bond purchases or even rate hike within the year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, and short-term inflation can be tolerated until these two goals are completed, it is not ruled out that persistent excessive inflation will change the attitude of the FED.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Fed's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this. Whether it is necessary to take immediate action no longer depends on how big the inflationary pressure is, but how the Fed judges.</p><p>According to the monetary policy report released by the Federal Reserve on July 9th, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, and the surge in labor demand exceeds the recovery of labor supply; Supply chain bottlenecks have eased, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories suggest that supply chain pressures are still not small.</p><p>Regardless of the position of Fed officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four kinds. The inflation data for four consecutive months has constantly moved the expected turning point of the market forward. If the PPI data released next also greatly exceeds expectations, and the pressure on the production side continues to be transmitted to the consumer side, it will further deepen the market's worries, and the expectation of the withdrawal action will continue to advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the more accepted view is that the Fed will throw a taper signal at the annual symposium at Jackson Hole in August. It is expected that it will be mainly hinted and released. When will it land, the forecasts of Fed officials and institutions will be concentrated at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Before that, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is sure that the inflection point of global liquidity will eventually come.</p><p><b>At this juncture, the domestic central bank unexpectedly cut the RRR again, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trend, the reason makes sense.</b></p><p>Due to the large recovery poor in various countries in last year's epidemic, China's rapid recovery, and its huge and perfect manufacturing supply capacity, it received a wave of foreign trade dividends, and its rapid economic growth was due to a large number of overseas export orders. However, now, with the epidemic control and the improvement of vaccination rate in developed countries in the United States and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to flow back, and the foreign trade demand for China will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months show that while the global manufacturing PMI boom has strengthened, China's new export orders have dropped significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this background, the downward pressure on China's economy has become the consensus of all parties, and the currency has been loosened again, just to hedge this impact in advance.</p><p>However, in the past 10 years, the average interest rate spread between China and the United States was 133BP. In September last year, the interest rate spread between China and the United States was 235BP, but now it is only 155 BP. From this perspective, the space for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States starts to collect water, the flexibility space of monetary policy will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nowadays, the mismatch of monetary policies between China and the United States has caused new concerns in the market. How much room do we have to maneuver and deploy?</p><p>However, yesterday, Sun Guofeng, director of the monetary policy department of the central bank, expressed his views,<b>He believes that the discussion on the Fed's monetary policy shift will have less impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Ten years of pursuit of monetary independence, has it come true?</b></h3>We might as well look back at what has happened over the past 20 years.</p><p>After joining the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence between China and the United States has deepened, and everything seems to be developing in a bright direction. China's GDP growth rate has exceeded 10% year after year, becoming a veritable world's factory, and the United States has been able to continue to play finance and real estate.</p><p>But, in 2008, it all came to an abrupt end.</p><p>A severe financial crisis broke out in the United States, and it quickly swept the world. China also suffered deeply from it, and rushed to launch a \"four trillion\" rescue plan. This has triggered a \"crack\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what has gone wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>The United States believes that after China's accession to the WTO, it has removed its own manufacturing industry more recklessly, and the emptiness of the real economy has led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially finance, which is the root cause of the crisis. Therefore, Obama shouted the banner of the return of manufacturing industry.</p><p>China, on the other hand, has a more subtle attitude. The United States relies too much on the status of the US dollar, debt expansion and other ways to develop its economy, which determines that the cyclical fluctuation of the US dollar will be severe. However, the United States can use the world to hedge the fluctuation of the US dollar, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those deeply bound to the United States. The monetary policy can only be passively followed, and it has a good life when the US dollar expands, but when the US dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a violent economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed the WTO dividend for many years, and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy\". With the coming of the economic crisis, the demand in Europe and America declined rapidly, and the foreign trade plunged. Accompanied by the closure of a large number of export manufacturing industries and the rapid expansion of the unemployed population, this is the embodiment.</p><p><b>In a country as large and populous as China, stability is more important than anything else.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China has also started a series of adjustments, the most important of which is to go its own way. To put it more bluntly, it is to find a way to pull away from the lessons learned by over-binding the United States.</p><p>As for the specific practices, the belt and road initiative is one, infrastructure + real estate is one, and the shift from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is also one, and<b>The adjustment of monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to try to do foreign trade with some neighboring countries, directly using people's settlement, which promoted the rapid increase of international use of RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan. In 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, with the \"811 Exchange Reform\", RMB changed from a single peg to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving them corresponding weights, and forming a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, the changes of RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, so as to maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and form a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it is a shift from \"single anchor\" to \"multiple anchor\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a lot of prices. For example, after the \"811 exchange reform\", the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly, and coupled with the loopholes in foreign exchange control, countless enterprises took advantage of this loophole to constantly arbitrage and export overseas, and China lost 900 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the whole, the results are still great. At least, China has gradually shown its independence in the choice of monetary policy. This might be the confidence that Secretary Sun was talking about.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What does the mismatch of currencies between China and the United States bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered the rate hike cycle, and emerging economies were almost wiped out, and some countries were particularly tragic. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa and Turkey all dropped to record lows, and Brazil's GDP dropped the largest in history.</p><p><b>As the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the opportunity and took the initiative to defend, the depreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar remained at a low level in emerging markets, avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the United States and Europe tended to synchronize; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the rhythm of the People's Bank of China divorced from that of the United States and Europe, and it was one step ahead of the withdrawal and release of water.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held 9 joint rate hike, and the Federal Funds rate increased to 2.25%-2.50%. At this time, China is cutting interest rates. On March 1st, May 11th, June 28th and August 26th, 2015, the benchmark interest rate of one-year loans was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the benchmark interest rate of one-year deposits was also lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75% many times. The benchmark interest rates of other grades of loans and deposits and the interest rates of individual housing provident fund deposits and loans will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>During the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve once again released water, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches are not deliberate pursuits, but more decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it was necessary to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, through rapid epidemic prevention and control, export dividends replaced the old road of purely relying on monetary stimulus. This RRR cut also has the meaning of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely ignoring the Federal Reserve. After all, the locomotive of the global economy is still the United States, and it is precisely that we want to balance the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with problems such as RMB depreciation pressure and capital outflow if the Federal Reserve tightens the liquidity rhythm greatly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressure.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expected. Externally, facing the risk of export reduction, the monetary aspect needs to worry about the pressure brought by the Fed's currency inflection point, and the window of relatively loose liquidity is limited; Internally, the investment motivation is insufficient, and the effect of the internal circular economy driven by consumption with high hopes is not remarkable enough. Once the funds are tightened, many small and medium-sized enterprises will face the shortage of demand and funds like last year.</p><p>Under the combined action of internal and external pressures, the next action that the central bank is more likely to take on monetary policy may not be to relax liquidity or join the ranks of obvious tightening, but more likely to be total amount control, structural adjustment, directional guidance, strict control of the idling of supervision funds, and truly guide liquidity to where it really should go, such as small and medium-sized micro, people's livelihood economy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovation and Technology</a>Green economy, etc.</p><p>Now the state has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and people's consumption economy, and its kinetic energy is also very strong. From this, we can also imagine that any obstacles that affect the realization of this goal will continue to be suppressed and cleaned up, such as real estate speculation, antitrust, education, medical care and so on.</p><p>However, in either case, it may not be a very optimistic situation for the capital market.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>This thing of stock price depends on the industry in the long term, fundamentals in the medium term and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to now, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and Big A has also changed from general rise to differentiation.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the figure below-differentiation is happening. If the next currency is really tight, then the fourth quadrant-the capital market with mourning will probably repeat itself, but the extent is a question.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When investing, we should decide to stay or go with the worst expectations, and listen to the thunder in a silent place.</p><p>As for investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunity may not be running out.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a97a16afe8e75d415a74db18ceb0a4c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2151217519","content_text":"美联储主席不止一次地告诉世界，通胀是暂时的。\n不过，经济数据正在不断押注另一边。\n当地时间7月13日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，6月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长5.4%，环比上涨0.9%，均大幅超出市场预期的5%、0.5%，同时创下1991年11月以来最高记录。\n\n即便考虑到去年疫情导致的低基数，通胀数据的恶化依然肉眼可见，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比涨幅高达4.5%。但是，通过前几次的铺垫，资本市场的反应越来越平淡，昨晚美股三大指数只微跌0.3%左右，美债、黄金异动都不大。\n无论市场是否继续相信鲍威尔的论调，对美联储来说，通胀压力和货币宽松刺激经济的矛盾日益激烈。\n正如联储官员戴利所说，虽然现在谈论加息还为时过早，但开始谈论缩减购债是合适的。\n\n\n1\n喊了几个月的Taper，啥时候来？\n\n\n美联储很擅长做“预期调节”这件事，不定时地向市场释放信号，鹰派的、鸽派的，放风可以放足一年，给投资者充足的时间做预防和对冲。反复几次下来，和政策对赌的人少了一大半，美联储的拐弯就平滑了许多。\n从3月份美国CPI跨过2%的安全边界之后，押注美联储在年内将缩减购债规模（Taper）甚至加息的投资者越来越多。虽然鲍威尔的货币政策框架锚定的是经济和就业，这两个目标未完成前，短期通胀是可以被容忍的，但不排除持续过高的通胀改变FED的态度。\n不过，短期内马上改变美联储货币政策显然不太现实，毕竟事态已经这样了，需不需要立即采取行动就不再取决于通胀压力有多大，而是美联储如何判断。\n根据7月9日美联储发布的货币政策报告，美国经济正在强劲复苏，但是劳动力市场存在结构性问题，劳动力需求的激增超过了劳动力供应的复苏；供应链瓶颈有所缓解，但历史高位的订单积压和历史低位的客户库存表明供应链压力依然不小。\n无论美联储官员的表态如何，市场的预期不外乎以下4种。连续4个月的通胀数据，不断将市场的预期拐点向前移。如果接下来公布的PPI数据同样大超预期，生产端的压力继续向消费端传导，将会进一步加深市场的担忧，退出动作的预期也会继续提前。\n\n当前，比较受认可的观点是，美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔年度专题研讨会上抛出缩减购债信号。预期会先以暗示、放风为主，具体何时落地，联储官员和机构的预测集中在今年年底和明年年初。在此之前，7月底的FOMC会议或许会透露出一些关键信息。\n短期上或许还存在诸多不确定性，但远期上，所有人都确信，全球流动性拐点终将到来。\n在这个节骨眼上，国内央行却意外地再度降准，释放出约1万亿的流动性，但再看看目前的经济数据趋势，理由是很能说得通的。\n由于去年的疫情中各国存在较大的恢复差，中国的快速恢复，且庞大而完善的制造业供应能力，吃到一波外贸红利，经济快速增长正是得益于大量的海外出口订单。但如今，随着美欧发达国家疫情控制、疫苗接种率的提升，经济社会恢复正常，订单开始回流，对中国的外贸需求将出现明显的下降，近几个月的经济数据显示，全球制造业PMI景气走强的同时，中国新出口订单明显回落。\n\n在这个背景下，中国经济下行压力加大已成各方共识，货币重新偏向宽松，正是为了提前对冲这种影响。\n但过去10年，中美平均利差为133BP，去年9月中美利差为235BP，而现在只有155个BP，从这个角度看，宽松的空间已经大大缩减，一旦美国开始收水，货币政策的弹性空间就会变得狭窄很多。\n\n如今，中美货币政策的错配，又引发市场新的担忧，我们还有多大腾挪调配的空间？\n不过，昨日央行货币政策司司长孙国峰发表观点，他认为关于美联储货币政策转向的讨论对中国货币政策、金融市场的影响较小。\n这个底气从何而来？\n2\n十年货币独立性追求，成真了吗？\n我们不妨回顾一下过去20年发生的事情。\n2001加入世贸之后，中国和美国经济相互依存度加深，一切貌似都朝着美好的方向发展，中国GDP增速连年超过10%，成了名副其实的世界工厂，美国也得以继续玩金融，玩地产。\n但是，2008年，一切戛然而止。\n美国爆发了严重的金融危机，并且迅速席卷全球，中国也深受其害，急冲冲启动“四万亿”的救市计划。由此引发的，是中美双方合作关系的“裂痕”，其实双方都在反思，过去8年到底出了什么问题。\n美国认为中国加入世贸后，自己因为更肆无忌惮地移走自家的制造业，实体经济的空虚，导致虚拟经济，尤其是金融的过度膨胀，是危机的根源，所以奥巴马才喊出制造业回归的旗号。\n而中国，态度则更加微妙。美国过分依赖美元地位、债务扩张等方式发展经济，决定了美元的周期波动会比较剧烈，但美国能够利用全球去对冲美元的波动，其他国家则没有这个实力，尤其是深度跟美国绑定的国家，货币政策只能被动跟随，在美元扩张时日子过得不错，但是美元收缩时，常常伴随着剧烈的经济下行。金融危机前，中国享受了多年的世贸红利，并演变为引以为傲的“出口导向型经济”，经济危机来临，欧美需求快速下滑，外贸重挫，伴随而来的是大量出口制造业倒闭，失业人口迅速膨胀，正是这种体现。\n中国这样体型庞大、人口众多的国家，稳定比什么都重要。\n所以，在稳住经济形势之后，中国也开始了一系列的调整，其中最重要的一条，就是走自己的路，说得再直白一点，就是想办法从过度绑定美国的前车之鉴中抽身。\n至于具体的做法，一带一路算一个，基建+地产算一个，由出口依赖转向刺激内需也算一个，还有货币政策的调整。\n2009年，中国开始尝试跟周边一些国家做对外贸易上，直接使用人民结算，推动人民币的国际使用量迅速增加。2009年，人民币的外贸结算量只有几十亿元，2015年，首次突破10万亿元。\n2015年，“811汇改”，人民币从单一盯住美元，改为选择若干种主要货币，赋予相应的权重，组成一个货币篮子，同时，以市场供求为基础，参考一篮子货币计算人民币多边汇率指数的变化，维护人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基础稳定，形成有管理的浮动汇率制。\n简而言之，就是从“单锚”转向了“多锚”。\n在这个过程中，中国付出了不少代价，如“811汇改”后，人民币汇率快速贬值，加上外汇管制上的漏洞，无数企业利用这种漏洞，不断地套汇输出海外，中国损失了9000亿美元外汇储备。\n\n但总体上，收效还是很大的，起码，中国在货币政策的选择上，逐渐体现出了自主的独立性。这可能就是孙司长所言的底气。\n3\n中美货币的错配，带来什么？\n2015年下半年，美联储进入加息周期，新兴经济体几乎全军覆没，部分国家更是格外惨烈，巴西、南非和土耳其货币均贬至纪录低位，巴西 GDP 创史上最大降幅。\n由于“811”汇改抢占先机、主动防御，人民币兑美元汇率的贬值幅度在新兴市场中居于低位，避免了系统性风险的爆发。在货币政策上，中国也表现出了比以往更多的独立性。2008年之前，中美欧货币政策趋于同步；金融危机爆发后，中国央行的节奏脱离美欧的步伐，收放水都领先一步。\n如美联储从2015年12月到2018年12月，美联储共同加息9次，联邦基金利率加至2.25%-2.50%。而此时的中国，却在降息，2015年3月1日、5月11日、6月28日、8月26日，一年期贷款基准利率下调均下调0.25个百分点，由5.6%将至4.6%，一年期存款基准利率也多次下调0.25个百分点，至1.75%；其他各档次贷款及存款基准利率、个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。\n2020年的新冠疫情，美联储再次大放水，但中美两国的经济周期和货币政策再次出现错配。\n\n两次的配错，并非刻意追求，更多的是中国出于自身的实际情况做出的决策，如2015年需要解决地方债务到期问题、房地产高库存问题，2020年则是通过快速的疫情防控，用出口红利代替了纯粹依靠货币刺激的老路。这次降准，也颇有2015年时的意思。\n不过，这种独立性并不等于完全不顾美联储，毕竟全球经济的火车头还是美国，恰恰是我们想在美联储和自身国情中取平衡。当然，中国接下来需要面对的是，如果美联储因为通胀压力大幅提前收紧流动性的节奏，人民币贬值压力和资本外流等问题上，该如何应对。\n下半年或许比我们预期要艰难许多，对外，面临出口缩减风险，货币方面又需要担心美联储货币拐点带来的压力，流动性相对宽松的窗口有限；对内，投资动力不足，寄与厚望的消费拉动的内循环经济成效还不够显著，一旦资金面收紧，很多中小微企业又会面临去年那样需求与资金面紧缺的局面。\n内外压力联合作用下，接下来央行对货币政策比较可能采取的操作可能不是放松流动性，或加入明显收紧行列，而更可能是总量控制，结构调整，定向引导，严控监管资金空转，真正把流动性引导至真正应该去的地方，比如中小微，民生经济，创新科技、绿色经济等方面。\n国家现在对提振国内企业活力、民众消费经济的目标很明确，动能也很强烈。由此，我们也可以想象得到，但凡对这个目标实现构成影响的阻碍，都会继续被压制和清理，比如炒房、反垄断、教育、医疗等等。\n但无论哪一种情况，对于资本市场面来说，可能都不会是一个很乐观的局面。\n4\n结语\n股价这个东西，长期看行业，中期看基本面，短期看流动性。\n去年3月到现在，我们经历了一波典型的从“经济向好，货币宽松”到“经济向好，货币收紧”的过程，大A也从普涨转变为分化抱团。\n下图第三象限所发生的事情--分化正在发生，如果接下来的货币真的向紧，那么第四象限--哀鸿遍野的资本市场也大概率会重演，只是程度有多大的问题。\n\n做投资，我们要不吝以最差的预期决定去留，于无声处听惊雷。\n至于那些上半年没能赚到钱的投资者，时间和机会可能并不多了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UCmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"CYB":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162195550,"gmtCreate":1624039171070,"gmtModify":1703827459504,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls comment and like","listText":"Pls comment and like","text":"Pls comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162195550","repostId":"2144774740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144774740","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1624030096,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144774740?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144774740","media":"Investors","summary":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.","content":"<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p>\n<p>\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p>\n<p>The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p>\n<h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2>\n<p>At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p>\n<p>\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p>\n<p>On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p>\n<p>However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 23:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p>\n<p>\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p>\n<p>The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p>\n<h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2>\n<p>At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p>\n<p>\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p>\n<p>On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p>\n<p>However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171018226,"gmtCreate":1626695489265,"gmtModify":1703763477173,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"haiz","listText":"haiz","text":"haiz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171018226","repostId":"1148982205","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173195653,"gmtCreate":1626630536272,"gmtModify":1703762459567,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173195653","repostId":"1160796593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160796593","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626606185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160796593?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 19:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"OPEC + agrees to boost oil production, ending current stalemate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160796593","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月18日，在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后，欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示，该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日，直到所有闲置的产能都恢复，根据协议，阿联酋、伊拉克和","content":"<p>On July 18, OPEC and its allies agreed to gradually increase oil supplies to the market after Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved a dispute that blocked a deal. The organization will increase production by up to 400,000 bpd per month until all spare capacity is restored, according to the agreement, with the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait receiving higher production quotas from May 2022. The agreement will ease the imminent supply crunch and reduce the risk of higher oil prices. It also capped a stalemate that unnerved traders.</p><p>OPEC + agreed a new baseline of 3.5 million barrels per day for crude oil production cuts in the UAE, which will take effect from May 2022.</p><p>In addition to the UAE, other OPEC + members are also expected to receive new benchmarks for production cuts, with Iraq and Kuwait raising their production baselines by 150,000 bpd each.</p><p>OPEC + agreed to adjust benchmark Saudi and Russian oil production to 11.5 million barrels per day from the previous 11 million barrels per day starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has also agreed to further ease production cuts from August, with a new crude oil cut benchmark coming into effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has reached an agreement on crude oil production, and the next OPEC + meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the agreement to cut production until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement shows that OPEC + plans to fully cancel the 5.8 million bpd production cut by September 2022, when market conditions allow.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC + agrees to boost oil production, ending current stalemate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC + agrees to boost oil production, ending current stalemate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 19:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 18, OPEC and its allies agreed to gradually increase oil supplies to the market after Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved a dispute that blocked a deal. The organization will increase production by up to 400,000 bpd per month until all spare capacity is restored, according to the agreement, with the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait receiving higher production quotas from May 2022. The agreement will ease the imminent supply crunch and reduce the risk of higher oil prices. It also capped a stalemate that unnerved traders.</p><p>OPEC + agreed a new baseline of 3.5 million barrels per day for crude oil production cuts in the UAE, which will take effect from May 2022.</p><p>In addition to the UAE, other OPEC + members are also expected to receive new benchmarks for production cuts, with Iraq and Kuwait raising their production baselines by 150,000 bpd each.</p><p>OPEC + agreed to adjust benchmark Saudi and Russian oil production to 11.5 million barrels per day from the previous 11 million barrels per day starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has also agreed to further ease production cuts from August, with a new crude oil cut benchmark coming into effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has reached an agreement on crude oil production, and the next OPEC + meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the agreement to cut production until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement shows that OPEC + plans to fully cancel the 5.8 million bpd production cut by September 2022, when market conditions allow.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0e918dfd4ec815c4f78fc4cfc3ea3e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160796593","content_text":"7月18日，在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后，欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示，该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日，直到所有闲置的产能都恢复，根据协议，阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张，并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。\nOPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日，将于2022年5月开始生效。\n除了阿联酋，其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准，伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。\n欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始，将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。\nOPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产，新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。\n欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议，下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行，同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。\n欧佩克草案声明显示，欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前，在市场条件允许的情况下，全面取消580万桶/日的减产。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148207723,"gmtCreate":1625975891762,"gmtModify":1703751520457,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148207723","repostId":"1124741749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124741749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625910991,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124741749?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 17:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Thorpe and Simmons: The Legendary Lives of Two Godfather Investment Magnates","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124741749","media":"SMARTMATRIX","summary":"他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校。","content":"<p>A Man for All Markets is the personal biography of Edward Thorp. The Chinese translation is \"The Man Who Beat All Markets\". Judging from Thorp's experience, from beating casinos to entering Wall Street, OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives are All dabbled in, which is worthy of the name All Markets. Taleb says in the preface that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and The godfather of quantitative investment, he pioneered The introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial transactions, which influenced countless Quant bosses in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including The famous James Simons, whose Renaissance technology company created The myth of The rate of return in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography The Man Who Solved The Market details The ups and downs of him and his team's conquest of The financial Market. Although it was compiled by a Wall Street Journal writer based on interviews, many of them have never been revealed before.</p><p><b>Academic Source</b></p><p>When culture flourishes, people are outstanding. The so-called outstanding people, such as the Hunan School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. In academic circles, there is a similar phenomenon. A careful study of the backgrounds of the two big bosses will find a lot in common. They were both born in the 1930s, gifted since childhood, in the academic circle, but both are devoted to money, and have two alma maters in common: University of California, Berkeley and MIT. The academics of both schools reached their peak after the war. One of the main reasons was the large-scale military scientific research activities spawned by World War II (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory and modern computers). Both Thorp and Simons happened to catch up with this wave of academic dividends. In the 1950s, Thorp became obsessed with studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons remained submerged in theoretical mathematics, which also led to his academic achievements (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>The talked-about story today is that Thorp used the law of large numbers and Kelly's formula to defeat the casino, and he became the first person in history to be \"blacked out\" by a Las Vegas casino. By contrast, PNP (Princeton Newport Partners), the hedge fund he founded, has a much dimmer profile. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1%, respectively, and the average annual growth rate of the S&P index was 10.2% during the same period. In the past 19 years, after two oil crises in 1970s and the stock market crash in 1987, the two funds have never suffered a single-quarter loss, let alone an annual loss. In the world's largest casino, its performance is the best, and its investment model is 20 years ahead of the broad customers who have filed into Wall Street since then.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to shut down because it was implicated in the case of Milken, the king of junk bonds. It was in this year that Simons set up the Medal Fund. He is over fifty years old, and he can be described as a late bloomer. He has been exploring for 10 years to find a successful investment model, and has been swinging between subjective and quantitative. Although the outside world has always regarded Simons as a master of quantitative investment, in fact, his role is completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to dig all kinds of scientists from the academic circle to help the company develop quantitative models, and as a spiritual leader to shape the company's corporate culture. As a world-class mathematician + excellent sales, he can deal well with different people, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>Quantitative path</b></p><p>As a pioneer of quantitative trading, Thorp is good at hedging arbitrage of various derivatives. The bear market and volatility in the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and sense of market smell, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factors models — early prototypes of quant. The risk under this model is theoretically infinite, especially the upper limit of losses of shorting those overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. Since then, LTCM adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked a risk control strategy like Thorp and was defeated by Black Swan. In order to improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs, and once again became the pioneer of Algorithm Trading.</p><p>Simons, by contrast, wasn't so lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading to continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data including data cleaning, signaling mechanisms and back-testing. In 1986, the model framework for identifying hidden price trends was used-in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading-in 1992, only a single model was used (critical breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities with speech recognition), and the model went through a long process of iterative improvement. Finally, the important core ability of the model was developed: identifying the \"value of transactions\", including: the certainty of price trend, the weight trade-off between trading signals, and the judgment of the impact of trading according to signals on the market. This ability is particularly important for high-frequency full-variety trading.</p><p><b>Winning Systems: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, gambling and investing are both games based on probability and statistics, and the amount of bets is allocated according to the winning rate (money management based on Kelly's rule). The first major breakthrough of the Medallion Fund also came from the application of Kelly's rule and the shortening of the transaction frequency to make its transactions more reflect the law of large numbers. The Medallion's system makes money as long as the winning percentage is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of every sale. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the negligence and mistakes of other traders (market invalidity). Human behavior under high pressure is highly predictable, and they instinctively exhibit panic. Modeling is based on the premise that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros used reflexive philosophical theory to model human behavior, while Simons' team used data and algorithms to model human behavior, so as to confirm the theory of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investment, which simplifies the market to a Mr. Market, the experience of quantitative investment is that there are far more factors and variables affecting financial markets and investment than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market inefficiency can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp spares no effort to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors struggle to find the most basic drivers, but what is missing is perhaps a whole dimension of information. The Medallion Fund cannot explain the logic behind every law of profit, just as humans cannot understand Alpha Go, perhaps at higher latitudes.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not panacea. When data and desire conflict, even a rational scientist cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention is to create an algorithm-driven automatic trading system, which completely shields human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he can't help but intervene manually, reduce his dependence on signals, and actively reduce his trading position. The intervention result is not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said: \"<b>Never put too much trust in trading models. The basic mistake of long-term capital management is to think that the model is the truth. We never believe that our model can reflect the whole truth, it only reflects a part of the truth</b>。”</p><p><b>Kuan Ke Life</b></p><p>In fact, the intersection of many big bosses far exceeds our imagination. For example, Thorp and Buffett played tricks at the bridge table. After confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, he decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people think that Xueba may not necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of school. However, Thorp practiced the way of thinking of applying abstract thinking to real life, and truly interpreted that \"a tough life doesn't need explanation\". Academics, wealth and family are complete, and he realized very early that life itself is higher than making money. Compared to Thorp's brilliant life, Simons had too many twists and turns. He was divorced, his two sons suffered misfortune one after another, and he was betrayed by his partners. But in the end, I choose to make peace with life and devote myself to charity. From academic career to wide guest life, I explore the true meaning of fate in the ups and downs, and experience itself is the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the end is often less important, and the journey itself and the experience along the way are more precious.<b>No body can take away the dance you have danced.</b></p>","source":"lsy1625911325017","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Thorpe and Simmons: The Legendary Lives of Two Godfather Investment Magnates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThorpe and Simmons: The Legendary Lives of Two Godfather Investment Magnates\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">SMARTMATRIX</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 17:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A Man for All Markets is the personal biography of Edward Thorp. The Chinese translation is \"The Man Who Beat All Markets\". Judging from Thorp's experience, from beating casinos to entering Wall Street, OTC options, convertible bonds, stocks, futures and other derivatives are All dabbled in, which is worthy of the name All Markets. Taleb says in the preface that his memoir reads like a thriller.</p><p>As a mathematical genius and The godfather of quantitative investment, he pioneered The introduction of probability theory, information theory, and computer programming into financial transactions, which influenced countless Quant bosses in later generations: Bill Gross, David Shaw, Ken Griffin... including The famous James Simons, whose Renaissance technology company created The myth of The rate of return in financial history. Similarly, Simons' biography The Man Who Solved The Market details The ups and downs of him and his team's conquest of The financial Market. Although it was compiled by a Wall Street Journal writer based on interviews, many of them have never been revealed before.</p><p><b>Academic Source</b></p><p>When culture flourishes, people are outstanding. The so-called outstanding people, such as the Hunan School since the late Ming Dynasty in China, made Hunan the cradle of revolutionaries. In academic circles, there is a similar phenomenon. A careful study of the backgrounds of the two big bosses will find a lot in common. They were both born in the 1930s, gifted since childhood, in the academic circle, but both are devoted to money, and have two alma maters in common: University of California, Berkeley and MIT. The academics of both schools reached their peak after the war. One of the main reasons was the large-scale military scientific research activities spawned by World War II (the famous Manhattan Project, cryptography, information theory and modern computers). Both Thorp and Simons happened to catch up with this wave of academic dividends. In the 1950s, Thorp became obsessed with studying roulette with Shannon, while Simons remained submerged in theoretical mathematics, which also led to his academic achievements (Chern-Simons Theroy). In the 1960s, MIT became the center of the computer revolution, and mathematics and computers were the two keys to Wall Street, and Thorp was the lucky one to hold these two keys.</p><p><b>Casinos vs Wall Street</b></p><p>The talked-about story today is that Thorp used the law of large numbers and Kelly's formula to defeat the casino, and he became the first person in history to be \"blacked out\" by a Las Vegas casino. By contrast, PNP (Princeton Newport Partners), the hedge fund he founded, has a much dimmer profile. In fact, from 1969 to 1988, the annualized returns of the two PNP funds reached 19.1% and 15.1%, respectively, and the average annual growth rate of the S&P index was 10.2% during the same period. In the past 19 years, after two oil crises in 1970s and the stock market crash in 1987, the two funds have never suffered a single-quarter loss, let alone an annual loss. In the world's largest casino, its performance is the best, and its investment model is 20 years ahead of the broad customers who have filed into Wall Street since then.</p><p>In 1988, Thorp's fund was forced to shut down because it was implicated in the case of Milken, the king of junk bonds. It was in this year that Simons set up the Medal Fund. He is over fifty years old, and he can be described as a late bloomer. He has been exploring for 10 years to find a successful investment model, and has been swinging between subjective and quantitative. Although the outside world has always regarded Simons as a master of quantitative investment, in fact, his role is completely different from Thorp's. His main job is not to develop quantitative models, but to dig all kinds of scientists from the academic circle to help the company develop quantitative models, and as a spiritual leader to shape the company's corporate culture. As a world-class mathematician + excellent sales, he can deal well with different people, which is a rare ability.</p><p><b>Quantitative path</b></p><p>As a pioneer of quantitative trading, Thorp is good at hedging arbitrage of various derivatives. The bear market and volatility in the 1970s made this strategy work perfectly. Relying on his mathematical talent and sense of market smell, he discovered new blue oceans: Statistical Arbitrage and factors models — early prototypes of quant. The risk under this model is theoretically infinite, especially the upper limit of losses of shorting those overvalued stocks is infinite. Thorp's main risk control strategy is diversified investment. Since then, LTCM adopted a similar arbitrage model, but lacked a risk control strategy like Thorp and was defeated by Black Swan. In order to improve investment efficiency, Thorp turned investment strategies into programs, and once again became the pioneer of Algorithm Trading.</p><p>Simons, by contrast, wasn't so lucky. From early attempts at intuitive investing to trend-based momentum trading, reversal trading to continuous collection and mining of massive amounts of data including data cleaning, signaling mechanisms and back-testing. In 1986, the model framework for identifying hidden price trends was used-in 1989, abnormal trading signals were used for short-term high-frequency trading-in 1992, only a single model was used (critical breakthrough), and then speech recognition experts helped make various technological breakthroughs (financial models have similarities with speech recognition), and the model went through a long process of iterative improvement. Finally, the important core ability of the model was developed: identifying the \"value of transactions\", including: the certainty of price trend, the weight trade-off between trading signals, and the judgment of the impact of trading according to signals on the market. This ability is particularly important for high-frequency full-variety trading.</p><p><b>Winning Systems: Probabilistic Thinking & Modeling Human Behavior</b></p><p>For Thorp, gambling and investing are both games based on probability and statistics, and the amount of bets is allocated according to the winning rate (money management based on Kelly's rule). The first major breakthrough of the Medallion Fund also came from the application of Kelly's rule and the shortening of the transaction frequency to make its transactions more reflect the law of large numbers. The Medallion's system makes money as long as the winning percentage is slightly above 50%, regardless of the profit or loss of every sale. Essentially, it is making money by taking advantage of the negligence and mistakes of other traders (market invalidity). Human behavior under high pressure is highly predictable, and they instinctively exhibit panic. Modeling is based on the premise that humans will constantly repeat past behaviors. Soros used reflexive philosophical theory to model human behavior, while Simons' team used data and algorithms to model human behavior, so as to confirm the theory of behavioral finance.</p><p>Unlike traditional value investment, which simplifies the market to a Mr. Market, the experience of quantitative investment is that there are far more factors and variables affecting financial markets and investment than most people realize, and the factors that lead to market inefficiency can even be said to be encrypted (Thorp spares no effort to refute the efficient market hypothesis in his book). Investors struggle to find the most basic drivers, but what is missing is perhaps a whole dimension of information. The Medallion Fund cannot explain the logic behind every law of profit, just as humans cannot understand Alpha Go, perhaps at higher latitudes.</p><p>Models are abstractions and simplifications of the world, but models are not panacea. When data and desire conflict, even a rational scientist cannot be completely rational. Simons' original intention is to create an algorithm-driven automatic trading system, which completely shields human subjective judgment. However, in every crisis, he can't help but intervene manually, reduce his dependence on signals, and actively reduce his trading position. The intervention result is not very ideal. His colleague Patterson also said: \"<b>Never put too much trust in trading models. The basic mistake of long-term capital management is to think that the model is the truth. We never believe that our model can reflect the whole truth, it only reflects a part of the truth</b>。”</p><p><b>Kuan Ke Life</b></p><p>In fact, the intersection of many big bosses far exceeds our imagination. For example, Thorp and Buffett played tricks at the bridge table. After confirming that Buffett would eventually become the richest man in the United States, he decisively invested in BRK stock. Many people think that Xueba may not necessarily have a good life. After all, there is a huge gap between book smart and street smart, and the rules of the real world are much more complicated than those of school. However, Thorp practiced the way of thinking of applying abstract thinking to real life, and truly interpreted that \"a tough life doesn't need explanation\". Academics, wealth and family are complete, and he realized very early that life itself is higher than making money. Compared to Thorp's brilliant life, Simons had too many twists and turns. He was divorced, his two sons suffered misfortune one after another, and he was betrayed by his partners. But in the end, I choose to make peace with life and devote myself to charity. From academic career to wide guest life, I explore the true meaning of fate in the ups and downs, and experience itself is the meaning. As Thorp said at the end of his autobiography: Life is like reading a novel or running a marathon. Reaching the end is often less important, and the journey itself and the experience along the way are more precious.<b>No body can take away the dance you have danced.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw\">SMARTMATRIX</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388d882133df2db2363aa871ff756c47","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g5Zdx-uS3wl9QbsHZm1DVw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124741749","content_text":"A Man for All Markets是Edward Thorp的个人传记，中文翻译《战胜一切市场的人》，从Thorp的经历来看，从打败赌场到进入华尔街，OTC期权、可转债、股票、期货等衍生品，全部涉猎，名副其实的All Markets。塔勒布在序言里说，他的回忆录读起来像一部惊悚小说。\n作为一个数学天才、量化投资教父级人物，他开创性的将概率论、信息论、计算机编程引入金融交易，影响了后世无数Quant大佬：Bill Gross、David Shaw、Ken Griffin...其中也包括大名鼎鼎的James Simons，后者的文艺复兴科技公司创造了金融史上的回报率神话，同样，讲述Simons的传记The Man Who Solved The Market，详细记录了他和他的团队征服金融市场的起起落落，虽是一位华尔街日报作家根据采访汇编而成，但其中不少以前从未披露过的精彩故事。\n学术源流\n文化兴，则人杰出，所谓的人杰地灵，比如中国明末以来的湖湘学派让湖南成为革命党人的摇篮。在学术圈，也有类似的现象。仔细研究两位大佬的背景，会发现很多共通点，他们都出生于30年代，自幼天赋异禀、身在学术圈但都一心向钱，有两个共同的母校：加州大学伯克利分校和MIT。两校的学术在战后都达到了巅峰，主要一个原因就是二战催生的大规军事科研活动（著名的曼哈顿计划、密码学、信息论和现代计算机），Thorp和Simons都恰好赶上了这波学术红利。50年代，Thorp醉心于和香农一起研究轮盘赌，而Simons仍埋头于理论数学问题，这也使得其在学术上的成就更高（Chern-Simons Theroy）。60年代，MIT成为计算机革命的中心，而数学和计算机正是通向华尔街的两把钥匙，Thorp正是手握这两把钥匙的幸运儿。\n赌场vs华尔街\n如今为人津津乐道的故事是Thorp利用大数定律和凯利公式打败了赌场，他也成了历史上第一个被拉斯维加斯赌场“拉黑”的人。相比之下，他创设的对冲基金PNP（Princeton Newport Partners）知名度黯淡不少。实际上，从1969年到1988年，PNP两支基金的年化收益率分别达到19.1%和15.1%，同期标普指数年均增长率为10.2%。19年间历经70年代两次石油危机、87年股灾，两只基金从未发生单季亏损，更没有年度亏损。在世间最大的赌场，其业绩冠绝其时，其投资模式，领先此后鱼贯进入华尔街的宽客们20年。\n1988年，Thorp的基金因为受到垃圾债券之王米尔肯一案的牵连被迫关闭。正是在这一年，Simons成立大奖章基金，已年过半百的他，可谓大器晚成，在此前为了寻找成功的投资模型已经摸索了10年之久，一直在主观和量化之间摇摆。尽管外界一直都把Simons视作量化投资大师，但实际上他点角色和Thorp完全不同，他的主要工作并不是开发量化模型，而是从学术圈挖掘各类科学家来帮助公司开发量化模型，并且作为精神领袖塑造公司企业文化。作为一名世界级的数学家+卓越的销售，他与不同的人都能融洽的打交道，这是一种罕见的能力。\n量化之路\n作为量化交易的先驱，Thorp擅长各种衍生品的对冲套利，70年代的熊市和波动率让这种策略运行的非常完美。依靠自己的数学天赋和市场嗅觉发现了新的蓝海：统计套利（Statistical Arbitrage）和因子模型（factors model）——早期的quant原型。这种模式下的风险理论上是无穷的，尤其是做空那些价格高估的股票的损失上限是无穷大，Thorp主要风控策略是分散化投资。此后的LTCM采用类似的套利模式，但缺少Thorp这样的风控策略，被黑天鹅击败。为了提升投资效率，Thorp将投资策略变成程序，再次成为程序化交易（Algorithm Trading）的先驱。\n相比之下，Simons就没那么幸运了。从早期尝试直觉投资到基于趋势的动量交易、反转交易再到持续收集挖掘海量数据包括数据清洗、信号机制和回溯测试。1986年使用识别隐藏价格趋势的模型框架——1989年利用异常交易信号进行短期高频交易——1992年改为只用单一模型（关键性突破），而后语音识别专家帮助进行各种技术突破（金融模型与语音识别有相似之处），模型经历了漫长迭代改进的过程。最终练就了模型重要核心能力：识别出“交易的价值”，包括：价格趋势的确定性大小、交易信号之间的权重取舍、根据信号进行交易对市场造成的影响的判断。这项能力对于高频全品种交易尤为重要。\n取胜系统：概率思考&对人类行为建模\n对Thorp来说，赌博和投资都是以概率统计为基础的游戏，根据胜率的大小来分配下注金额的大小（基于凯利法则的资金管理），而大奖章基金的第一次重大突破也来自于对凯利法则的运用以及缩短交易频率使其交易更体现大数定律。大奖章的系统只要胜率略高于50%就能赚钱，而不在乎每一笔买卖的盈亏。本质上，是在利用其他交易者的疏忽和错误赚钱（市场无效）。人类在高压下的行为具有很高的可预测性，他们会本能地表现出恐慌。建模的前提是人类会不断重复过去的行为。索罗斯曾以反身性的哲学理论对人类行为建模，而Simons的团队利用数据和算法对人类行为建模，以此印证行为金融学的理论。\n与传统的价值投资把市场面简化成一位市场先生不同，量化投资的经验是，影响金融市场和投资的因素和变量远远比大多数人意识到的更多，导致市场无效的因素甚至可以说是加密的（Thorp在书中对有效市场假说也不遗余力的进行驳斥）。投资者努力寻找最基本的推动因素，但是遗漏的也许是一整个维度的信息。大奖章基金无法对每一条盈利的规律背后的逻辑进行解释，就如同人类无法理解阿尔法围棋一样，也许是更高纬度的存在。\n模型是对世界的抽象和简化，但模型并不是万能的。当数据和欲望相冲突，即便是理性的科学家，也无法做到完全理性。Simons的初心是创建的算法驱动的自动交易系统，完全屏蔽人类的主观判断，但每一次危机，他仍忍不住会手动干预，减少对信号的依赖，主动缩减交易头寸，可干预的结果并不十分理想。他的同事帕特森也说：”永远不要对交易模型过于信任。长期资本管理公司的基本错误是认为模型就是事实真相，我们从未相信我们的模型能够反映全部事实，它只反映事实的一部分。”\n宽客人生\n其实很多大佬的交集，远远超过我们想象。比如Thorp和巴菲特在桥牌桌上过过招，在确认巴菲特最终会成为全美最富有的人之后，果断投资了BRK的股票。很多人以为，学霸不一定会拥有好人生，毕竟，book smart和street smart之间的有极大的鸿沟，现实世界的规则比学校要复杂太多，但Thorp践行了将抽象思维运用到现实生活中的思维方式，真正诠释了“彪悍的人生不需要解释”，学术、财富、家庭圆满，很早就意识到在生活本身高于赚钱。相比较Thorp精彩纷呈的人生，Simons的人生曲折太多，离过婚，他的两个儿子先后遭受不幸，还遭遇过伙伴背叛。但最终还是选择和生活讲和，并投身慈善事业，从学术生涯到宽客人生，在跌宕起伏中探寻命运的真谛，而经历本身就是意义所在。就像Thorp在自传末尾所说：生活像是读一本小说或者跑一场马拉松，到达终点往往不是那么重要，旅途本身和沿途的体验更为珍贵。No body can take away the dance you have danced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}