达达K personal page - To The Moon

达达K

达达K

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2022-05-09

Like

@达达jam:AEM ,長期投資,good stock

2022-05-05

k

@蔡生天天:春秋電子：擬0.8億元至1.5億元回購股份春秋電子(603890)5月5日晚間公告，擬以0.8億元-1.5億元回購股份，回購價格不超過13.71元/股。此次回購的股份將全部用於公司員工持股計劃或股權激勵計劃。

2022-04-26

Yes

@股民Oscar:留好子彈，準備反攻利潤都是跌出來的，要想賺錢，總得讓它跌個夠

2022-04-21

Ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-03-02

Good

@达达K:Good to buy

2022-02-26

Like

美国证交会考虑新规：卖空者需每月报告相关活动

2022-01-22

Like

@达达jam:Yes,cary

2021-07-07

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-01

Agree

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-16

Good buy

2021-06-14

Good to buy

2021-06-08

Good to buy

2021-06-05

Good to buy

2021-06-03

?????

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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09:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国证交会考虑新规：卖空者需每月报告相关活动","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165042671","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"新规将适用于持有至少1000万美元空头头寸或相当于总流通股2.5%以上的机构经理。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：粥七</p><p>美东时间2月25日周五，美国证券交易委员会SEC表示其正在考虑一项新规，一些投资者机构或将被要求每月向SEC报告他们与卖空相关的活动，从而使SEC首次向公众提供详细的卖空数据，包括额空头头寸的汇总数据以及每日卖空数据。</p><p>美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler在一份新闻稿中表示：</p><blockquote>SEC一致投票提议制定规则和修正案，扩大投资公众和监管机构可获得卖空相关数据的范围。</blockquote><blockquote>我很高兴支持这项提案，因为如果被采纳，将加强我们市场中一个重要领域的透明度，而这一领域将从更大的可见度和监督中受益。</blockquote><p>Gensler表示，新的规则制定将适用于持有至少1000万美元空头头寸或相当于总流通股2.5%以上的机构经理。</p><blockquote>对公众和委员会来说，更多了解这个重要的市场是很重要的，特别是在压力或波动的时候。拟议的规则将有助于委员会处理未来的市场事件，在透明的需求和价格发现过程之间取得平衡。</blockquote><p>早在2005年SEC就设立名为Regulation SHO的条例限制裸卖空行为，该项条例规定投资者在进行股票卖空时必须要有充分理由确保自己有能力在交易结算前持有要卖空的股票否则就要补仓，不然就算违约Fail to Deliver，如果事后被发现裸卖空者有抛空或狙击股价的嫌疑，则算犯法。</p><p>“裸卖空”是指投资者没有借入股票而直接在市场上卖出根本不存在的股票，在股价进一步下跌时再买回股票获得利润的投资手法。进行“裸卖空”的交易者只要在交割日期前买入股票，交易即获成功。由于“裸卖空”卖出的是不存在的股票，量可能非常大，因此会对股价造成剧烈冲击。</p><p>投资者认为卖空者操纵市场、可能存在欺诈行为以及缺乏卖空交易公开数据的问题依然翠在。此次提议的新规试图通过进一步增强市场透明度以弥补这一问题。</p><p>按照设计，新规定将增加所谓的“买入-回补”的披露，卖空批评人士可能会欢迎这一规定，因为它将旨在进一步遏制所谓的“裸卖空”。2008年全球金融危机爆发后，美国证券交易委员会禁止交易员利用不存在的股票做空上市公司的股票。</p><p>去年年底，SEC提出一项规则，要求向卖空者出借证券的经纪公司和资产管理公司在出借后15分钟内向金融业监管局等监督机构报告每笔贷款的数据。</p><p>SEC表示，鉴于其最新的规则修改建议，其延长了对该规则的公众评论期。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国证交会考虑新规：卖空者需每月报告相关活动</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国证交会考虑新规：卖空者需每月报告相关活动\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-26 09:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652877><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：粥七美东时间2月25日周五，美国证券交易委员会SEC表示其正在考虑一项新规，一些投资者机构或将被要求每月向SEC报告他们与卖空相关的活动，从而使SEC首次向公众提供详细的卖空数据，包括额空头头寸的汇总数据以及每日卖空数据。美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler在一份新闻稿中表示：SEC一致投票提议制定规则和修正案，扩大投资公众和监管机构可获得卖空相关数据的范围。我很高兴支持这项提案，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652877\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b45ea8bb6e8a9c6428f1a279df367be","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652877","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1165042671","content_text":"作者：粥七美东时间2月25日周五，美国证券交易委员会SEC表示其正在考虑一项新规，一些投资者机构或将被要求每月向SEC报告他们与卖空相关的活动，从而使SEC首次向公众提供详细的卖空数据，包括额空头头寸的汇总数据以及每日卖空数据。美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler在一份新闻稿中表示：SEC一致投票提议制定规则和修正案，扩大投资公众和监管机构可获得卖空相关数据的范围。我很高兴支持这项提案，因为如果被采纳，将加强我们市场中一个重要领域的透明度，而这一领域将从更大的可见度和监督中受益。Gensler表示，新的规则制定将适用于持有至少1000万美元空头头寸或相当于总流通股2.5%以上的机构经理。对公众和委员会来说，更多了解这个重要的市场是很重要的，特别是在压力或波动的时候。拟议的规则将有助于委员会处理未来的市场事件，在透明的需求和价格发现过程之间取得平衡。早在2005年SEC就设立名为Regulation SHO的条例限制裸卖空行为，该项条例规定投资者在进行股票卖空时必须要有充分理由确保自己有能力在交易结算前持有要卖空的股票否则就要补仓，不然就算违约Fail to Deliver，如果事后被发现裸卖空者有抛空或狙击股价的嫌疑，则算犯法。“裸卖空”是指投资者没有借入股票而直接在市场上卖出根本不存在的股票，在股价进一步下跌时再买回股票获得利润的投资手法。进行“裸卖空”的交易者只要在交割日期前买入股票，交易即获成功。由于“裸卖空”卖出的是不存在的股票，量可能非常大，因此会对股价造成剧烈冲击。投资者认为卖空者操纵市场、可能存在欺诈行为以及缺乏卖空交易公开数据的问题依然翠在。此次提议的新规试图通过进一步增强市场透明度以弥补这一问题。按照设计，新规定将增加所谓的“买入-回补”的披露，卖空批评人士可能会欢迎这一规定，因为它将旨在进一步遏制所谓的“裸卖空”。2008年全球金融危机爆发后，美国证券交易委员会禁止交易员利用不存在的股票做空上市公司的股票。去年年底，SEC提出一项规则，要求向卖空者出借证券的经纪公司和资产管理公司在出借后15分钟内向金融业监管局等监督机构报告每笔贷款的数据。SEC表示，鉴于其最新的规则修改建议，其延长了对该规则的公众评论期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007634010,"gmtCreate":1642863835945,"gmtModify":1676533753469,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007634010","repostId":"115804487","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":115804487,"gmtCreate":1622966351649,"gmtModify":1704193909590,"author":{"id":"3567242485136825","authorId":"3567242485136825","name":"达达jam","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8a49ecf9fb8dd1d923e4dc63be8734a5","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes,cary","listText":"Yes,cary","text":"Yes,cary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115804487","repostId":"2140446973","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140030471,"gmtCreate":1625618645793,"gmtModify":1703744951428,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140030471","repostId":"1154903802","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151420210,"gmtCreate":1625103164030,"gmtModify":1703736170863,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree&nbsp;","listText":"Agree&nbsp;","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151420210","repostId":"1145558758","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169193508,"gmtCreate":1623820125404,"gmtModify":1703820488864,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good 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to buy&nbsp;","listText":"Good to buy&nbsp;","text":"Good to 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07:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"滴滴上市筹资44亿美元！华尔街：期待下一个增长篇章","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145558758","media":"腾讯网","summary":"腾讯证券7月1日讯，中国叫车服务公司滴滴表示，该公司在美国IPO（首次公开募股）交易中筹集到了44亿美元资金，其IPO发行价位于此前指导区间的上限，并增加了在此次交易中出售的股票数量。\n滴滴以每股14","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>证券7月1日讯，中国叫车服务公司滴滴表示，该公司在美国IPO（首次公开募股）交易中筹集到了44亿美元资金，其IPO发行价位于此前指导区间的上限，并增加了在此次交易中出售的股票数量。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646222c7f7fcc0a6c4114072055815ca\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>滴滴以每股14美元的IPO价格出售了3.168亿股美国存托股票（ADS），高于此前计划的2.88亿股，这将使滴滴在完全稀释的基础上估值约为730亿美元，在非稀释的基础上估值为675亿美元。</p>\n<p>滴滴的股票已经以“DIDI”为代码在纽约证券交易所挂牌交易，开盘价为18美元，与每股14美元的IPO发行价相比上涨近29%。截至发稿，滴滴股价最新报16.5美元，涨幅为接近18%。</p>\n<p>据一位熟知内情的消息人士透露，提高交易规模的决定是滴滴在投资者对其股票进行了数倍的超额认购后做出的。此前曾有报道称，滴滴的IPO与最初估值最高可达1000亿美元的目标相比较为保守，该公司在IPO启动前与投资者举行的简报会上削减了这笔交易的规模。报道称，投资者之所以会对1000亿美元的目标犹豫不决，是因为担心该公司未来的增长前景可能会有不确定性。</p>\n<p>滴滴IPO是自2014年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>集团（NYSE:BABA）赴美上市筹集250亿美元资金以来，中国公司在美国规模最大的一次IPO交易。今年，随着企业争先恐后地想要“捕捉”美国股市利润丰厚的估值，IPO活动出现了动荡和创纪录的局面。</p>\n<p><b>估值颇具吸引力</b></p>\n<p>伦敦独立分析师道格拉斯·金（Douglas Kim）在金融科技公司Smartkarma的平台上撰文称：“动荡的IPO环境帮助降低了（滴滴的）IPO价格，其估值看起来颇具吸引力。”</p>\n<p>滴滴原计划在IPO中出售的股票在上周开始询价的第一天就已经提前售罄，投资者的账簿在本周一结账，比原计划提前了一天。滴滴向承销商授予了超额配售选择权，使其可以额外出售4320万股美国存托股票以扩大交易规模。</p>\n<p>滴滴于2012年由前阿里巴巴员工程维联合创立，他目前担任滴滴的首席执行官。另一名联合创始人是前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>银行家柳青，她目前担任滴滴总裁。</p>\n<p>该公司的主要支持者包括软银集团和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a>（NYSE:UBER）等。滴滴以成功将优步赶出中国市场而闻名，此前这家美国公司在价格战中失败，最终将其中国业务出售给滴滴以换取股份，时任优步中国总裁的柳甄是柳青的堂妹。</p>\n<p>滴滴在中国市场上占据着主导地位，不过吉利和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">上汽集团</a>等汽车制造商的叫车服务正在抢占市场份额。在滴滴正在进行业务扩张的欧洲和南美市场上，优步占据了一席之地。</p>\n<p>与大多数叫车公司一样，滴滴在历史上一直都没能实现盈利，直到今年第一季度才报告盈利3000万美元。根据一份监管申报文件，由于疫情期间业务下滑，滴滴去年亏损16亿美元，营收下降8%至216.3亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>两种趋势的象征</b></p>\n<p>据数据提供商Refinitiv的数据显示，2020年里中国公司从美国IPO上市交易中总共筹集了大约120亿美元资金，而2021年到目前为止，中国公司已经筹集了近80亿美元资金，是去年同期的三倍多。与此同时，虽然许多主要的中国科技公司在美国挂牌上市，但最近一大批在华尔街上市的中国公司在香港进行了二次发行，这样一来它们就可以在离本土市场更近的地方建立更加牢固的根基。</p>\n<p>就滴滴而言，该公司可以说是这两种趋势的象征。根据Dealogic的数据，滴滴的IPO交易使其成为过去10年以来在美国上市的前十大公司之一，也是有记录以来第四大中国公司赴美IPO上市交易。但据一位熟知内情的消息人士透露，最近几个月以来，该公司也正在考虑在香港二次上市。</p>\n<p>滴滴在中国拥有3.77亿名年度活跃用户，该公司在2012年成立之后不久就赢得了苹果公司（NASDAQ:AAPL）、软银和阿里巴巴等重量级公司的支持，同时也击退了竞争对手。在2015年，滴滴收购了最大的本土竞争对手快的打车；不久之后，合并后的新公司将其旗舰应用程序更名为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴出行</a>。</p>\n<p>在2016年滴滴收购优步的中国业务之后，曾担任后者首席执行官的特拉维斯·卡兰尼克（Travis Kalanick）承认，滴滴是“一个有力的竞争对手”，并同意让两家公司交换股份。在去年年底，滴滴退出了对优步的持股，而优步则保留了滴滴大约12%的股份。</p>\n<p><b>业务迅速发展</b></p>\n<p>自那以后，滴滴迅速发展，现在该公司提供一整套服务，包括叫车、共享单车、出租车和拼车服务等。滴滴现在自称是世界上最大的移动平台，在中国和包括巴西、墨西哥和俄罗斯在内的其他15个国家都拥有用户。但是，滴滴仍然极度依赖国内市场，其93%以上的销售额都来自中国。</p>\n<p>滴滴正在寻求改变这一点，该公司在提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的一份文件中表示，计划将募集资金的三分之一用于扩大中国以外的业务。</p>\n<p>“我们渴望成为一家真正的全球科技公司。”程维和柳青在致投资者的一封信中写道。</p>\n<p>另外三分之一的资金将用于开发电动汽车和自动驾驶等领域的技术，其余的则将用于开发新产品或服务，或其他战略投资。程维和柳青在信中表示，该公司正在探索在“市内货运、社区团购和送餐”等领域中推出新产品。</p>\n<p>“滴滴是一个出色的、由创始人引领的、行业领先的创新者。”滴滴的投资者之一、投资公司Breyer Capital的创始人及首席执行官吉姆·布雷耶（Jim Breyer）在一封电子邮件中表示。“自从几年前我第一次投资以来，我就有幸观察到他们的领导力，并期待着他们的下一个增长篇章。”（星云）</p>","source":"lsy1571985465872","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n滴滴上市筹资44亿美元！华尔街：期待下一个增长篇章\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 07:59 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/omn/20210701/20210701A00SS700.html><strong>腾讯网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>腾讯证券7月1日讯，中国叫车服务公司滴滴表示，该公司在美国IPO（首次公开募股）交易中筹集到了44亿美元资金，其IPO发行价位于此前指导区间的上限，并增加了在此次交易中出售的股票数量。\n滴滴以每股14美元的IPO价格出售了3.168亿股美国存托股票（ADS），高于此前计划的2.88亿股，这将使滴滴在完全稀释的基础上估值约为730亿美元，在非稀释的基础上估值为675亿美元。\n滴滴的股票已经以“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210701/20210701A00SS700.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646222c7f7fcc0a6c4114072055815ca","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210701/20210701A00SS700.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145558758","content_text":"腾讯证券7月1日讯，中国叫车服务公司滴滴表示，该公司在美国IPO（首次公开募股）交易中筹集到了44亿美元资金，其IPO发行价位于此前指导区间的上限，并增加了在此次交易中出售的股票数量。\n滴滴以每股14美元的IPO价格出售了3.168亿股美国存托股票（ADS），高于此前计划的2.88亿股，这将使滴滴在完全稀释的基础上估值约为730亿美元，在非稀释的基础上估值为675亿美元。\n滴滴的股票已经以“DIDI”为代码在纽约证券交易所挂牌交易，开盘价为18美元，与每股14美元的IPO发行价相比上涨近29%。截至发稿，滴滴股价最新报16.5美元，涨幅为接近18%。\n据一位熟知内情的消息人士透露，提高交易规模的决定是滴滴在投资者对其股票进行了数倍的超额认购后做出的。此前曾有报道称，滴滴的IPO与最初估值最高可达1000亿美元的目标相比较为保守，该公司在IPO启动前与投资者举行的简报会上削减了这笔交易的规模。报道称，投资者之所以会对1000亿美元的目标犹豫不决，是因为担心该公司未来的增长前景可能会有不确定性。\n滴滴IPO是自2014年阿里巴巴集团（NYSE:BABA）赴美上市筹集250亿美元资金以来，中国公司在美国规模最大的一次IPO交易。今年，随着企业争先恐后地想要“捕捉”美国股市利润丰厚的估值，IPO活动出现了动荡和创纪录的局面。\n估值颇具吸引力\n伦敦独立分析师道格拉斯·金（Douglas Kim）在金融科技公司Smartkarma的平台上撰文称：“动荡的IPO环境帮助降低了（滴滴的）IPO价格，其估值看起来颇具吸引力。”\n滴滴原计划在IPO中出售的股票在上周开始询价的第一天就已经提前售罄，投资者的账簿在本周一结账，比原计划提前了一天。滴滴向承销商授予了超额配售选择权，使其可以额外出售4320万股美国存托股票以扩大交易规模。\n滴滴于2012年由前阿里巴巴员工程维联合创立，他目前担任滴滴的首席执行官。另一名联合创始人是前高盛银行家柳青，她目前担任滴滴总裁。\n该公司的主要支持者包括软银集团和优步（NYSE:UBER）等。滴滴以成功将优步赶出中国市场而闻名，此前这家美国公司在价格战中失败，最终将其中国业务出售给滴滴以换取股份，时任优步中国总裁的柳甄是柳青的堂妹。\n滴滴在中国市场上占据着主导地位，不过吉利和上汽集团等汽车制造商的叫车服务正在抢占市场份额。在滴滴正在进行业务扩张的欧洲和南美市场上，优步占据了一席之地。\n与大多数叫车公司一样，滴滴在历史上一直都没能实现盈利，直到今年第一季度才报告盈利3000万美元。根据一份监管申报文件，由于疫情期间业务下滑，滴滴去年亏损16亿美元，营收下降8%至216.3亿美元。\n两种趋势的象征\n据数据提供商Refinitiv的数据显示，2020年里中国公司从美国IPO上市交易中总共筹集了大约120亿美元资金，而2021年到目前为止，中国公司已经筹集了近80亿美元资金，是去年同期的三倍多。与此同时，虽然许多主要的中国科技公司在美国挂牌上市，但最近一大批在华尔街上市的中国公司在香港进行了二次发行，这样一来它们就可以在离本土市场更近的地方建立更加牢固的根基。\n就滴滴而言，该公司可以说是这两种趋势的象征。根据Dealogic的数据，滴滴的IPO交易使其成为过去10年以来在美国上市的前十大公司之一，也是有记录以来第四大中国公司赴美IPO上市交易。但据一位熟知内情的消息人士透露，最近几个月以来，该公司也正在考虑在香港二次上市。\n滴滴在中国拥有3.77亿名年度活跃用户，该公司在2012年成立之后不久就赢得了苹果公司（NASDAQ:AAPL）、软银和阿里巴巴等重量级公司的支持，同时也击退了竞争对手。在2015年，滴滴收购了最大的本土竞争对手快的打车；不久之后，合并后的新公司将其旗舰应用程序更名为滴滴出行。\n在2016年滴滴收购优步的中国业务之后，曾担任后者首席执行官的特拉维斯·卡兰尼克（Travis Kalanick）承认，滴滴是“一个有力的竞争对手”，并同意让两家公司交换股份。在去年年底，滴滴退出了对优步的持股，而优步则保留了滴滴大约12%的股份。\n业务迅速发展\n自那以后，滴滴迅速发展，现在该公司提供一整套服务，包括叫车、共享单车、出租车和拼车服务等。滴滴现在自称是世界上最大的移动平台，在中国和包括巴西、墨西哥和俄罗斯在内的其他15个国家都拥有用户。但是，滴滴仍然极度依赖国内市场，其93%以上的销售额都来自中国。\n滴滴正在寻求改变这一点，该公司在提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的一份文件中表示，计划将募集资金的三分之一用于扩大中国以外的业务。\n“我们渴望成为一家真正的全球科技公司。”程维和柳青在致投资者的一封信中写道。\n另外三分之一的资金将用于开发电动汽车和自动驾驶等领域的技术，其余的则将用于开发新产品或服务，或其他战略投资。程维和柳青在信中表示，该公司正在探索在“市内货运、社区团购和送餐”等领域中推出新产品。\n“滴滴是一个出色的、由创始人引领的、行业领先的创新者。”滴滴的投资者之一、投资公司Breyer Capital的创始人及首席执行官吉姆·布雷耶（Jim Breyer）在一封电子邮件中表示。“自从几年前我第一次投资以来，我就有幸观察到他们的领导力，并期待着他们的下一个增长篇章。”（星云）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033158122,"gmtCreate":1646226486955,"gmtModify":1676534105685,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033158122","repostId":"185154127","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":185154127,"gmtCreate":1623638155269,"gmtModify":1704207525506,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to buy&nbsp;","listText":"Good to buy&nbsp;","text":"Good to buy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bee96a2986fbd544d66aab9603ab0bb","width":"1080","height":"2101"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185154127","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180055354,"gmtCreate":1623165746378,"gmtModify":1704197564833,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to buy","listText":"Good to buy","text":"Good to buy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6c4c368f2479a57b4032b685c2a303","width":"1080","height":"2010"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180055354","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9068673739,"gmtCreate":1651766367821,"gmtModify":1676534965785,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068673739","repostId":"616657153","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":616657153,"gmtCreate":1651749841672,"gmtModify":1676533064740,"author":{"id":"3554694448881017","authorId":"3554694448881017","name":"蔡生天天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f6dcda0441500494135ed4ba4b9a45","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"春秋電子：擬0.8億元至1.5億元回購股份春秋電子(603890)5月5日晚間公告，擬以0.8億元-1.5億元回購股份，回購價格不超過13.71元/股。此次回購的股份將全部用於公司員工持股計劃或股權激勵計劃。","listText":"春秋電子：擬0.8億元至1.5億元回購股份春秋電子(603890)5月5日晚間公告，擬以0.8億元-1.5億元回購股份，回購價格不超過13.71元/股。此次回購的股份將全部用於公司員工持股計劃或股權激勵計劃。","text":"春秋電子：擬0.8億元至1.5億元回購股份春秋電子(603890)5月5日晚間公告，擬以0.8億元-1.5億元回購股份，回購價格不超過13.71元/股。此次回購的股份將全部用於公司員工持股計劃或股權激勵計劃。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/616657153","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082631271,"gmtCreate":1650556719327,"gmtModify":1676534751635,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082631271","repostId":"2229970689","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2229970689","pubTimestamp":1650523697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2229970689?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-21 14:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"俄乌冲突下的两只灰犀牛，会让我们重回1970年代吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229970689","media":"格隆汇","summary":"货币紧缩与俄乌冲突交织，联储“走钢丝”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>今天我想和大家分享三部分的内容：第一是对年初以来全球市场主线的回顾，第二是俄乌冲突后我们在全球金融体系里看到的两只灰犀牛，第三是在这样的外部环境下，中国受到的影响和应对。</p><h3>一、全球金融市场：货币紧缩与俄乌冲突交织，联储“走钢丝”</h3><p>从全球金融市场的表现来看，年初至2月中下旬前市场股债双杀，体现联储收紧的冲击；俄乌战争爆发后，市场开始反映短期避险的升温和中期滞胀的担忧；3月中下旬以来，俄乌局势进入焦灼状态后，市场重新关注联储快速紧缩的影响。考虑到俄乌问题对全球经济和金融体系的影响可能较为延续——我们之后会进一步讨论——后期这两条主线预期还会交织影响市场。</p><p>就联储政策而言，如果不考虑俄乌后续带来的额外突发冲击，美国核心通胀近期应已出现同比增速见顶迹象，核心PCE预期在年底逐步回落至3%附近。但即便如此，这仍然显著高于联储通胀目标。</p><p>越往后看，联储可能越会处于一个走钢丝的状态：一方面，当前市场对美国经济乐观的重要原因是基于美国尚且健康的居民资产负债表——这与此前美股的牛市密不可分，如果货币收紧引发美国持续动荡进而冲击居民净资产，则来自需求端下行压力将加大；另一方面，如前所述，通胀预期及实际通胀水平仍然处在高位。所以在未来的一个阶段，联储政策可能需要在“稳股市”和“控通胀”这两者间找一个脆弱的平衡：整体政策的边际调整，很大程度上取决于其对市场的反应，整体货币政策的空间相对前期而言是明显收窄的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da00c449c8c74fec4a398395e6212ada\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h3><b>二、俄乌冲突下的第一只灰犀牛：商品</b></h3><p><b>近期，俄乌冲突带来的能源供应短缺，已经开始通过通胀影响美欧的民意，进而体现在美欧国内政治走势上。</b>拜登政府对内政策在2021年三季度明确转向控通胀并对联储施压，这与民众对价格上涨的不满、进而导致其支持率下滑密切相关。俄乌冲突爆发后，法国极右翼候选人勒庞与马克龙的支持率缺口快速收窄，也体现了，欧洲民众的关注点开始从支持乌克兰转移到国内生活成本抬高上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c1a78a5c9eac2be9dc9134648bb27a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>实际上，俄乌问题冲突下的供应冲击并不仅限于能源，影响更为深远的可能是粮食。</b>俄罗斯和乌克兰是世界上重要的粮食和化肥出口国：以小麦为例，全球接近50个经济体全球至少 30%的小麦进口来自俄乌，其中东欧、南亚、北西非、南美对其的依赖尤为突出，由于战争及制裁导致的粮食和化肥供应中断，使得局部粮食危机频发的风险显著抬升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e5b57f936cef2a655fce4270a79d509\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>进一步来看，粮食和能源可能还会成为地缘政治上的博弈筹码，加剧逆全球化。</b>从4月7日联合国对暂停俄罗斯在人权理事会成员资格的投票结果来看，赞成93票vs反对及弃权82票，体现出比较典型的二元分化，这背后除了有既有政治立场之外，也有粮食、化肥、能源等市场上俄罗斯的影响力因素。如果未来供应持续短缺，则不排除相关经济体的外交表态和国内政局可能也会受到扰动——尤其考虑美国也是全球主要的能源和粮食的出口国，这可能会成为政治博弈层面讨价还价的筹码，近期在秘鲁、巴西等南美洲经济体发生的政治动荡，可能都映射了这一点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10f2d211bb719327bd3611340c168be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>近期部分新兴市场的市场走势，体现俄乌问题的溢出效应可能已经在发生</b>，包括南美主要经济体CDS明显回升，拉美新兴市场股市近期显著回调，这都提示我们需要关注新兴市场潜在脆弱性。一方面，是传统意义上对联储收紧的防御能力，包括其国内股债对外资的依赖度、外债占比及偿付能力等。另一方面，如果后续对俄制裁延续，与美国地缘关系较为亲近的经济体或尚能通过向美国购买粮食和能源短期缓解俄罗斯供应短缺，但与美国国际关系相对不那么紧密的经济体，美国可能乐见其经济陷入窘境，我觉得这是第一个我们需要关注的问题。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cd043df655e5eaf53e0fd3635e689f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>综合来说，俄乌战争对商品市场的溢出效应，其影响范围可能会波及多个经济体的内部政治和外交战略。而从全球化的角度来说，相关必需品成为外交中的重要筹码，又可能会导致全球经贸体系进一步的撕裂，这是需要注意的第一只灰犀牛。</p><h3>三、俄乌冲突下的第二只灰犀牛：国际货币金融体系</h3><p><b>我们需要密切跟踪“制裁”与“反制裁”举措对全球金融货币体系的影响。</b>今年年初以来美联储一直在进行货币政策的收紧，但美元广义名义有效汇率的升值幅度是远低于美元指数的。也就是说，美元今年的升值相对于日本、欧洲这经济体更明显，而对于更广义的包括新兴市场在内的全球主要的经济体来讲，升值幅度并不明显。历史上来看，当美联储货币政策收紧时，我们往往更加担心美联储的货币政策收紧所导致的新兴市场的资金流出的冲击。这次为什么不一样？我们认为背后可能的原因，就是美欧对于俄罗斯的制裁开始引发很多经济体、央行、投资者开始重新去思考美元体系安全性的问题。</p><p>不论是SWIFT制裁还是其他贸易金融和个人制裁，以及俄罗斯近期在金融方面的反制裁，都使得大家开始思考美元资产的安全性。在地缘冲突来临之时，投资者发现原本的金融规则可以一夜之间不复存在。这种担忧，可能已经开始动摇投资者对于当前以美元为主的全球金融体系的信心。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89a2ec7d4ef5fe940c84ce4dc87753d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>需关注两只灰犀牛共振的影响——重演1970年代经济金融动荡的风险在上升。</b>很多人把70年代的滞胀归结于能源供应问题下的石油危机，但是能源危机之前，1971年美元和黄金的脱钩可能是更重要的背景。尼克松冲击后，货币定价的锚消失了，导致以纸币定价的大量实物商品价格上升，叠加石油危机的冲击，才形成了70年代的大通胀。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ec56032830c41b0a01dcd5deac1c203\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>围绕俄乌冲突的制裁与反制裁，引发市场对美元、日元等主要发达经济体货币体系的忧虑。在此基础上，俄乌冲突导致的能源粮食——这都是必需品——的短缺，是否会使我们再次进入到一个非常动荡的环境，是当前需要关注的灰犀牛。当然之所以它叫灰犀牛，就是这些犀牛它不一定会冲过来，但是如果这两个问题同时发生叠加共振的话，对于金融市场和经济的冲击可能是非常巨大的。</p><h3>四、对中国的影响：直接冲击不大，关注次生影响</h3><p><b>首先直接冲击来讲的话，粮食的问题对于中国来说影响不大。</b>三大主粮里面，中国大米供给充足，库存量高；小麦来看，俄罗斯是小麦的第一大出口国，中国小麦的进口压力不大且还有库存；玉米有一定程度的缺口，而且有50%的供应是来自于乌克兰，但玉米的可替代性高。所以整体的来讲的话，主粮层面上俄乌冲突对中国的直接影响不大，这一点也是受益于过去很多年中央一直说的“中国人的饭碗要端在自己手里”的政策。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4845d3e9bddc107c8fed6b158f5825\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>但是我们更需要关注的是俄乌冲突的次生影响，也就是两只灰犀牛叠加的情况下，全球贸易体系可能会更加碎片化。</b>因此，无论是美国还是俄罗斯，可能都会很大程度上把粮食、能源、化肥这些必需品作为地缘政治上站队的一个讨价还价的“筹码”，这可能会意味着中国所面临的逆全球化加剧。</p><h3><b>五、更严峻的外部形势下，中国的应对</b></h3><p><b>此前中国经济受益于全球经贸一体化，因此如果未来逆全球化进程加速，中国出口将面临较大的潜在不确定性。除了终端需求收缩外，美国对华的经贸打压也是需要关注的风险。</b>今年2月美国新一版的供应链报告中，不仅讨论了“卡脖子”的产业，也讨论了对俄乌争端相关的产业，涉及我国信息技术、能源、国防、食品等多个行业。之前，美国对于中国供应链的政策主要围绕“卡脖子”的信息技术上，那么现在，美国可能会出台针对能源、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>的产业政策来进一步打压中国。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25c929359ec4352004739defcf2b2b47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>所以往后看，中国将面临更严峻的外部形势，我们认为中国的应对思路主要是两条主线。</b></p><p>第一、中国将更强调做好自己的事。在外循环面临众多不确定性的冲击下，中国巨大市场的潜能是中国经济最重要的基本盘。</p><p>第二、中国将更强调稳定、加强与周边经济体的经贸关系，构建一个安全垫。</p><p>俄乌问题爆发在欧洲，而在最近联合国发起的各种针对俄罗斯的议案中，中国周边的经济体--包括东南亚、南亚等--不是投了反对票，就是弃权票。显然，体现了这些经济体希望和平、不希望事态扩大--更不希望冲突蔓延到亚洲的态度。中国周边有我们的第一大贸易伙伴欧盟，南亚又有除中国外最大的人口国家印度，同时中国与东亚各国的经贸关系也极为密切，如果能够稳定并加强相关经济体的经贸关系，将有助于形成中国经济的“缓冲垫”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8d7fd23a8f20bb6fe19f794e17038f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h3>六、动荡的全球金融体系中的人民币：谈谈中美利差倒挂的问题</h3><p>过去中美利差收窄时，市场会担心大规模的资金流出压力，但这次中美利差的转负并没有引起预期中的资金流出。甚至，在今年2到3月间俄乌问题爆发、美联储收紧时，人民币对美元一直保持强势。这可能意味着投资者对现有全球金融体系担忧程度上升背景下，人民币资产成为投资者对冲风险的一个重要选择。如果考虑到：1）此前投资者对人民币金融资产配置比例较低；2）未来全球经贸体系“二元化”的背景，则人民币相对美元走强其实具有一定的合理性。如果“对冲”成为汇率市场的主线，则利差是否倒挂也就不足以影响汇率的走势了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1124e2b8a76f2202167c2c418ac6f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h3><b>七、总结</b></h3><p>首先，俄乌冲突在商品供给端的溢出效应，意味着未来一阶段，全球会呈现局部粮食危机高发的状态，而粮食和能源也将成为地缘政治博弈中的重要筹码，进一步对全球化产生负面影响。</p><p>其次，围绕美欧俄的制裁与反制裁，使得投资者对于全球货币金融体系的担忧程度上升。</p><p>最重要的是，上述两只灰犀牛的共振，在1970年代引发了全球经济、金融市场大动荡，也影响了后续几十年的全球格局。因此，当前外部环境严峻时，我们需要持续去关注美元和商品共振所造成的影响。</p><p><b>风险提示：美欧滞胀风险超预期，新兴市场债务风险超预期，地缘政治风险超预期。</b></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>俄乌冲突下的两只灰犀牛，会让我们重回1970年代吗？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n俄乌冲突下的两只灰犀牛，会让我们重回1970年代吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-21 14:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/522627><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天我想和大家分享三部分的内容：第一是对年初以来全球市场主线的回顾，第二是俄乌冲突后我们在全球金融体系里看到的两只灰犀牛，第三是在这样的外部环境下，中国受到的影响和应对。一、全球金融市场：货币紧缩与俄乌冲突交织，联储“走钢丝”从全球金融市场的表现来看，年初至2月中下旬前市场股债双杀，体现联储收紧的冲击；俄乌战争爆发后，市场开始反映短期避险的升温和中期滞胀的担忧；3月中下旬以来，俄乌局势进入焦灼状态...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/522627\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c82cf7967acddafade766f6f5c3a53","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/522627","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2229970689","content_text":"今天我想和大家分享三部分的内容：第一是对年初以来全球市场主线的回顾，第二是俄乌冲突后我们在全球金融体系里看到的两只灰犀牛，第三是在这样的外部环境下，中国受到的影响和应对。一、全球金融市场：货币紧缩与俄乌冲突交织，联储“走钢丝”从全球金融市场的表现来看，年初至2月中下旬前市场股债双杀，体现联储收紧的冲击；俄乌战争爆发后，市场开始反映短期避险的升温和中期滞胀的担忧；3月中下旬以来，俄乌局势进入焦灼状态后，市场重新关注联储快速紧缩的影响。考虑到俄乌问题对全球经济和金融体系的影响可能较为延续——我们之后会进一步讨论——后期这两条主线预期还会交织影响市场。就联储政策而言，如果不考虑俄乌后续带来的额外突发冲击，美国核心通胀近期应已出现同比增速见顶迹象，核心PCE预期在年底逐步回落至3%附近。但即便如此，这仍然显著高于联储通胀目标。越往后看，联储可能越会处于一个走钢丝的状态：一方面，当前市场对美国经济乐观的重要原因是基于美国尚且健康的居民资产负债表——这与此前美股的牛市密不可分，如果货币收紧引发美国持续动荡进而冲击居民净资产，则来自需求端下行压力将加大；另一方面，如前所述，通胀预期及实际通胀水平仍然处在高位。所以在未来的一个阶段，联储政策可能需要在“稳股市”和“控通胀”这两者间找一个脆弱的平衡：整体政策的边际调整，很大程度上取决于其对市场的反应，整体货币政策的空间相对前期而言是明显收窄的。二、俄乌冲突下的第一只灰犀牛：商品近期，俄乌冲突带来的能源供应短缺，已经开始通过通胀影响美欧的民意，进而体现在美欧国内政治走势上。拜登政府对内政策在2021年三季度明确转向控通胀并对联储施压，这与民众对价格上涨的不满、进而导致其支持率下滑密切相关。俄乌冲突爆发后，法国极右翼候选人勒庞与马克龙的支持率缺口快速收窄，也体现了，欧洲民众的关注点开始从支持乌克兰转移到国内生活成本抬高上。实际上，俄乌问题冲突下的供应冲击并不仅限于能源，影响更为深远的可能是粮食。俄罗斯和乌克兰是世界上重要的粮食和化肥出口国：以小麦为例，全球接近50个经济体全球至少 30%的小麦进口来自俄乌，其中东欧、南亚、北西非、南美对其的依赖尤为突出，由于战争及制裁导致的粮食和化肥供应中断，使得局部粮食危机频发的风险显著抬升。进一步来看，粮食和能源可能还会成为地缘政治上的博弈筹码，加剧逆全球化。从4月7日联合国对暂停俄罗斯在人权理事会成员资格的投票结果来看，赞成93票vs反对及弃权82票，体现出比较典型的二元分化，这背后除了有既有政治立场之外，也有粮食、化肥、能源等市场上俄罗斯的影响力因素。如果未来供应持续短缺，则不排除相关经济体的外交表态和国内政局可能也会受到扰动——尤其考虑美国也是全球主要的能源和粮食的出口国，这可能会成为政治博弈层面讨价还价的筹码，近期在秘鲁、巴西等南美洲经济体发生的政治动荡，可能都映射了这一点。近期部分新兴市场的市场走势，体现俄乌问题的溢出效应可能已经在发生，包括南美主要经济体CDS明显回升，拉美新兴市场股市近期显著回调，这都提示我们需要关注新兴市场潜在脆弱性。一方面，是传统意义上对联储收紧的防御能力，包括其国内股债对外资的依赖度、外债占比及偿付能力等。另一方面，如果后续对俄制裁延续，与美国地缘关系较为亲近的经济体或尚能通过向美国购买粮食和能源短期缓解俄罗斯供应短缺，但与美国国际关系相对不那么紧密的经济体，美国可能乐见其经济陷入窘境，我觉得这是第一个我们需要关注的问题。综合来说，俄乌战争对商品市场的溢出效应，其影响范围可能会波及多个经济体的内部政治和外交战略。而从全球化的角度来说，相关必需品成为外交中的重要筹码，又可能会导致全球经贸体系进一步的撕裂，这是需要注意的第一只灰犀牛。三、俄乌冲突下的第二只灰犀牛：国际货币金融体系我们需要密切跟踪“制裁”与“反制裁”举措对全球金融货币体系的影响。今年年初以来美联储一直在进行货币政策的收紧，但美元广义名义有效汇率的升值幅度是远低于美元指数的。也就是说，美元今年的升值相对于日本、欧洲这经济体更明显，而对于更广义的包括新兴市场在内的全球主要的经济体来讲，升值幅度并不明显。历史上来看，当美联储货币政策收紧时，我们往往更加担心美联储的货币政策收紧所导致的新兴市场的资金流出的冲击。这次为什么不一样？我们认为背后可能的原因，就是美欧对于俄罗斯的制裁开始引发很多经济体、央行、投资者开始重新去思考美元体系安全性的问题。不论是SWIFT制裁还是其他贸易金融和个人制裁，以及俄罗斯近期在金融方面的反制裁，都使得大家开始思考美元资产的安全性。在地缘冲突来临之时，投资者发现原本的金融规则可以一夜之间不复存在。这种担忧，可能已经开始动摇投资者对于当前以美元为主的全球金融体系的信心。需关注两只灰犀牛共振的影响——重演1970年代经济金融动荡的风险在上升。很多人把70年代的滞胀归结于能源供应问题下的石油危机，但是能源危机之前，1971年美元和黄金的脱钩可能是更重要的背景。尼克松冲击后，货币定价的锚消失了，导致以纸币定价的大量实物商品价格上升，叠加石油危机的冲击，才形成了70年代的大通胀。围绕俄乌冲突的制裁与反制裁，引发市场对美元、日元等主要发达经济体货币体系的忧虑。在此基础上，俄乌冲突导致的能源粮食——这都是必需品——的短缺，是否会使我们再次进入到一个非常动荡的环境，是当前需要关注的灰犀牛。当然之所以它叫灰犀牛，就是这些犀牛它不一定会冲过来，但是如果这两个问题同时发生叠加共振的话，对于金融市场和经济的冲击可能是非常巨大的。四、对中国的影响：直接冲击不大，关注次生影响首先直接冲击来讲的话，粮食的问题对于中国来说影响不大。三大主粮里面，中国大米供给充足，库存量高；小麦来看，俄罗斯是小麦的第一大出口国，中国小麦的进口压力不大且还有库存；玉米有一定程度的缺口，而且有50%的供应是来自于乌克兰，但玉米的可替代性高。所以整体的来讲的话，主粮层面上俄乌冲突对中国的直接影响不大，这一点也是受益于过去很多年中央一直说的“中国人的饭碗要端在自己手里”的政策。但是我们更需要关注的是俄乌冲突的次生影响，也就是两只灰犀牛叠加的情况下，全球贸易体系可能会更加碎片化。因此，无论是美国还是俄罗斯，可能都会很大程度上把粮食、能源、化肥这些必需品作为地缘政治上站队的一个讨价还价的“筹码”，这可能会意味着中国所面临的逆全球化加剧。五、更严峻的外部形势下，中国的应对此前中国经济受益于全球经贸一体化，因此如果未来逆全球化进程加速，中国出口将面临较大的潜在不确定性。除了终端需求收缩外，美国对华的经贸打压也是需要关注的风险。今年2月美国新一版的供应链报告中，不仅讨论了“卡脖子”的产业，也讨论了对俄乌争端相关的产业，涉及我国信息技术、能源、国防、食品等多个行业。之前，美国对于中国供应链的政策主要围绕“卡脖子”的信息技术上，那么现在，美国可能会出台针对能源、农产品的产业政策来进一步打压中国。所以往后看，中国将面临更严峻的外部形势，我们认为中国的应对思路主要是两条主线。第一、中国将更强调做好自己的事。在外循环面临众多不确定性的冲击下，中国巨大市场的潜能是中国经济最重要的基本盘。第二、中国将更强调稳定、加强与周边经济体的经贸关系，构建一个安全垫。俄乌问题爆发在欧洲，而在最近联合国发起的各种针对俄罗斯的议案中，中国周边的经济体--包括东南亚、南亚等--不是投了反对票，就是弃权票。显然，体现了这些经济体希望和平、不希望事态扩大--更不希望冲突蔓延到亚洲的态度。中国周边有我们的第一大贸易伙伴欧盟，南亚又有除中国外最大的人口国家印度，同时中国与东亚各国的经贸关系也极为密切，如果能够稳定并加强相关经济体的经贸关系，将有助于形成中国经济的“缓冲垫”。六、动荡的全球金融体系中的人民币：谈谈中美利差倒挂的问题过去中美利差收窄时，市场会担心大规模的资金流出压力，但这次中美利差的转负并没有引起预期中的资金流出。甚至，在今年2到3月间俄乌问题爆发、美联储收紧时，人民币对美元一直保持强势。这可能意味着投资者对现有全球金融体系担忧程度上升背景下，人民币资产成为投资者对冲风险的一个重要选择。如果考虑到：1）此前投资者对人民币金融资产配置比例较低；2）未来全球经贸体系“二元化”的背景，则人民币相对美元走强其实具有一定的合理性。如果“对冲”成为汇率市场的主线，则利差是否倒挂也就不足以影响汇率的走势了。七、总结首先，俄乌冲突在商品供给端的溢出效应，意味着未来一阶段，全球会呈现局部粮食危机高发的状态，而粮食和能源也将成为地缘政治博弈中的重要筹码，进一步对全球化产生负面影响。其次，围绕美欧俄的制裁与反制裁，使得投资者对于全球货币金融体系的担忧程度上升。最重要的是，上述两只灰犀牛的共振，在1970年代引发了全球经济、金融市场大动荡，也影响了后续几十年的全球格局。因此，当前外部环境严峻时，我们需要持续去关注美元和商品共振所造成的影响。风险提示：美欧滞胀风险超预期，新兴市场债务风险超预期，地缘政治风险超预期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140030471,"gmtCreate":1625618645793,"gmtModify":1703744951428,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140030471","repostId":"1154903802","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062743608,"gmtCreate":1652111437304,"gmtModify":1676535032076,"author":{"id":"3571103870473964","authorId":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062743608","repostId":"142690052","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":142690052,"gmtCreate":1626144040676,"gmtModify":1703754222260,"author":{"id":"3567242485136825","authorId":"3567242485136825","name":"达达jam","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8a49ecf9fb8dd1d923e4dc63be8734a5","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AEM 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