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Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343665684287600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330954795303024,"gmtCreate":1721829588814,"gmtModify":1721891821987,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/330954795303024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947053052,"gmtCreate":1682392516376,"gmtModify":1682392519134,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/M44U.SI\">$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/M44U.SI\">$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947053052","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955890564,"gmtCreate":1675311736259,"gmtModify":1676538992040,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>buyyyyyyyyyyyy","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>buyyyyyyyyyyyy","text":"$DJIA(.DJI)$ buyyyyyyyyyyyy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955890564","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959341794,"gmtCreate":1672914952519,"gmtModify":1676538757516,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nicee","listText":"Nicee","text":"Nicee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959341794","repostId":"2301283667","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992577438,"gmtCreate":1661348894928,"gmtModify":1676536500995,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992577438","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992547187,"gmtCreate":1661347883852,"gmtModify":1676536500693,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Weeewerrrr","listText":"Weeewerrrr","text":"Weeewerrrr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992547187","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160119226,"gmtCreate":1623774499365,"gmtModify":1703819154749,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Darn","listText":"Darn","text":"Darn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160119226","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9992547187,"gmtCreate":1661347883852,"gmtModify":1676536500693,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Weeewerrrr","listText":"Weeewerrrr","text":"Weeewerrrr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992547187","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947053052,"gmtCreate":1682392516376,"gmtModify":1682392519134,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/M44U.SI\">$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/M44U.SI\">$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST(M44U.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947053052","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959341794,"gmtCreate":1672914952519,"gmtModify":1676538757516,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nicee","listText":"Nicee","text":"Nicee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959341794","repostId":"2301283667","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2301283667","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1672888266,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2301283667?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-05 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Dividend Growth Stocks I'm Buying In 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2301283667","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Summary2022 was a great year for dividend growth stocks, which collectively out-performed the S&P 50","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>2022 was a great year for dividend growth stocks, which collectively out-performed the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>This collective out-performance might not recur in 2023--mature non-dividend tech could show some strength this year--but dividends should still out-perform unprofitable tech.</li><li>This year I will be buying dividend stocks in the banking and tech sectors.</li></ul><p>2022 was a great year for dividend growth stocks. The whole category out-performed the S&amp;P 500, while energy stocks (a subset of dividend growth stocks) earned a 58% capital gain! The performance between different dividend-paying sectors varied quite a bit, but even financials–among the weaker performing dividend sectors–managed to beat the S&amp;P 500 by about 5%.</p><p>Now, it’s not hard to see why this happened. It’s not really that dividend stocks did all that well as that tech stocks–which mostly don’t pay dividends–did extremely poorly. The <b>Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF</b> (VIG) declined about 11% for the year, or 8.5% after dividends. That’s not exactly an amazing showing, but compared to the NASDAQ-100’s 33% selloff, it’s great.</p><p>Heading into 2023 I expect dividend stocks to keep doing well on average. I’m no longer sure that they will vastly out-perform the indexes, but they have the potential to do well. Banking stocks, for example, performed poorly in 2022 despite net interest income rising. I’d expect them to gain relative to most other stocks this year. Additionally, there is potential for strength in dividend paying technology stocks, as I will explain shortly.</p><p>In investing, nothing is ever 100% certain. But with interest rates continuing to rise, there are good reasons to invest in value stocks and dividend growth stocks. With that in mind, here are my top four dividend growth stocks for 2023.</p><h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing </a></h3><p>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is a Taiwanese technology company that, as the name implies, manufactures semiconductors (aka computer chips). It is a semiconductor foundry, which means that it takes blueprints from other companies and uses them to assemble completed chips. This is a lucrative business model because semiconductor manufacturing is, in itself, a very profitable business. Even if you’re using someone else’s blueprints, the physical manufacturing of chips is very capital intensive, requiring lithography machines that cost hundreds of millions of dollars and can only be operated by very skilled technicians.</p><p>Because of the complexity of its operations, TSM enjoys an economic moat. It makes 65% of the world’s semiconductors and near 90% of extremely advanced chips. It’s an impressive market share, yet the company’s stock is still cheap, trading at:</p><ul><li><p>12.65 times earnings.</p></li><li><p>5.8 times sales.</p></li><li><p>4.4 times book value.</p></li><li><p>A 0.24 PEG ratio.</p></li><li><p>Eight times cash flow.</p></li></ul><p>This company looks super cheap. Of course, the low PEG ratio will be called into question if the growth slows down but it was growing revenue at 36% last quarter when other semi companies’ growth had already turned negative, so there’s clearly some resilience here.</p><h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TD\">TD Bank </a></h3><p>TD Bank is a dividend stock I’ve held for a long time now. I have written about it in several Seeking Alpha articles. It has a 4.5% yield at today’s prices, it hiked the dividend by 8% after the most recent quarterly release.</p><p>What does TD have going for it this year?</p><p>Like most banks, it benefits from rising credit card spending, which has been reported by <b>Mastercard</b> (MA) and others. Also like most banks, it stands to gain if the expected 2023 recession is mild rather than severe, as its 22% price decline (from all-time highs) appears to price in much more than just “mild” economic turbulence. The two points just mentioned apply to most North American banks. Why, then, do I single out TD in a list of just a handful of stocks?</p><p>It comes down to catalysts.</p><p>TD has two big acquisitions on the horizon, both of which could take earnings higher.</p><p>First, there’s the <b>First Horizon</b> (FHN) deal. TD has a deal in the works to buy FHN for $13.4 billion. FHN has $861 million in ttm net income. Its most recent quarter’s earnings would produce $10.76 billion in earnings if repeated for the next three quarters. So, TD could add about $1.076 billion in earnings by closing the FHN deal. The deal is facing some regulatory scrutiny, so closing isn’t a sure thing, but if it does close, then TD will get a quick earnings boost.</p><p>Next up, there’s <b>Cowen</b> (NASDAQ:COWN). That company does $128 million in annual earnings. As an investment bank, it’s not doing great this year: its earnings are declining. However, those declining earnings are why TD was able to buy it at a slight discount to its all-time high. The FHN deal was criticized on valuation grounds, it’s hard to say the same thing about the Cowen deal which, should it close, will push TD’s 2023 deal-related earnings over $1.1 billion.</p><h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America </a></h3><p>Bank of America is a stock I bought all year long last year, and have been very excited about in general. A few of the points I mentioned about TD apply here too; namely, rising credit card spend and a possible positive reaction to a merely-mild recession. However, Bank of America scores a little better than TD on one specific factor:</p><p><i>Mortgage risk.</i></p><p>Banks issue mortgages, and mortgage defaults are a major source of bank risk during recessions. When people lose their jobs, they tend to default on their mortgages. It’s a big risk for banks. Bank of America is less exposed to it than TD is.</p><p>Bank of America does almost all of its lending in the U.S., TD does 60% of its lending in Canada. This is a risk for TD because the average Canadian house is far more expensive than the average U.S. house. At the height of Canada’s housing bubble, Canadian homes cost nearly twice as much as U.S. homes, or 1.6 times more in nominal terms. Today, the gap is narrower, but Canadian houses are still more expensive. According to The Zebra, a U.S. house costs $348,000 on average. According to the CBC, the average Canadian house costs C$632,000. The current CAD/USD exchange rate is 0.74, so the average Canadian house costs $464,000 in PPP terms. Americans have slightly more after-tax income than Canadians do, so it would appear that Americans are less at risk of mortgage defaults this year compared to Canadians. This factor helps Bank of America, relatively speaking, as it does much more U.S. lending than TD does.</p><p>Beyond that, Bank of America stock is cheap, trading at 10.5 times earnings, 2.98 times sales, and 1.12 times book value. Overall, it’s a great dividend growth stock.</p><h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></h3><p>Last but not least, we have Apple Inc. This is a stock I’ve covered extensively in past articles. Unlike Bank of America and TD, Apple fell compared to where it was when I last covered it, so naturally, I got more interested.</p><p>Apple stock is not exactly bursting with yield. At today’s prices, it yields just 0.53%, which isn’t much. However, it has a 9 year dividend growth streak. To be honest, even if a company raises its dividend every single year, it will take some time to get a hefty yield when it’s starting from 0.53%. However, dividend growth is in itself a good signal. A company can pay an unsustainable dividend for a while, it takes real strength to keep paying dividends for decades. In this light, Apple’s dividend growth track record speaks for itself.</p><p>What else does Apple have going for it?</p><p>Unlike a few other stocks on this list, it’s not exactly a value play. Trading at 20 times earnings and 39 times book value, it’s far and away the most expensive stock I own. What Apple does have going for it is its competitive position. It has the world’s most valuable brand, and an inter-connected ecosystem of software and hardware offerings that incentivizes buying multiple products instead of just one. As a result of its ecosystem, Apple collects a high level of revenue per user. Definitely a great company.</p><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>The bottom line on dividend growth stocks is that they’re some of the best assets you can buy. Like all dividend stocks, they offer income, but unlike certain high-yield names, they tend to have very strong business performance. Personally, I’m going to be buying a lot of dividend growth stocks this year. If you’re interested in doing the same, any one of the four names above would be a great place to start.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Dividend Growth Stocks I'm Buying In 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Dividend Growth Stocks I'm Buying In 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-05 11:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567909-4-dividend-growth-stocks-im-buying-2023><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary2022 was a great year for dividend growth stocks, which collectively out-performed the S&P 500.This collective out-performance might not recur in 2023--mature non-dividend tech could show some ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567909-4-dividend-growth-stocks-im-buying-2023\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","TD":"道明银行","BAC":"美国银行","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567909-4-dividend-growth-stocks-im-buying-2023","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2301283667","content_text":"Summary2022 was a great year for dividend growth stocks, which collectively out-performed the S&P 500.This collective out-performance might not recur in 2023--mature non-dividend tech could show some strength this year--but dividends should still out-perform unprofitable tech.This year I will be buying dividend stocks in the banking and tech sectors.2022 was a great year for dividend growth stocks. The whole category out-performed the S&P 500, while energy stocks (a subset of dividend growth stocks) earned a 58% capital gain! The performance between different dividend-paying sectors varied quite a bit, but even financials–among the weaker performing dividend sectors–managed to beat the S&P 500 by about 5%.Now, it’s not hard to see why this happened. It’s not really that dividend stocks did all that well as that tech stocks–which mostly don’t pay dividends–did extremely poorly. The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) declined about 11% for the year, or 8.5% after dividends. That’s not exactly an amazing showing, but compared to the NASDAQ-100’s 33% selloff, it’s great.Heading into 2023 I expect dividend stocks to keep doing well on average. I’m no longer sure that they will vastly out-perform the indexes, but they have the potential to do well. Banking stocks, for example, performed poorly in 2022 despite net interest income rising. I’d expect them to gain relative to most other stocks this year. Additionally, there is potential for strength in dividend paying technology stocks, as I will explain shortly.In investing, nothing is ever 100% certain. But with interest rates continuing to rise, there are good reasons to invest in value stocks and dividend growth stocks. With that in mind, here are my top four dividend growth stocks for 2023.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is a Taiwanese technology company that, as the name implies, manufactures semiconductors (aka computer chips). It is a semiconductor foundry, which means that it takes blueprints from other companies and uses them to assemble completed chips. This is a lucrative business model because semiconductor manufacturing is, in itself, a very profitable business. Even if you’re using someone else’s blueprints, the physical manufacturing of chips is very capital intensive, requiring lithography machines that cost hundreds of millions of dollars and can only be operated by very skilled technicians.Because of the complexity of its operations, TSM enjoys an economic moat. It makes 65% of the world’s semiconductors and near 90% of extremely advanced chips. It’s an impressive market share, yet the company’s stock is still cheap, trading at:12.65 times earnings.5.8 times sales.4.4 times book value.A 0.24 PEG ratio.Eight times cash flow.This company looks super cheap. Of course, the low PEG ratio will be called into question if the growth slows down but it was growing revenue at 36% last quarter when other semi companies’ growth had already turned negative, so there’s clearly some resilience here.TD Bank TD Bank is a dividend stock I’ve held for a long time now. I have written about it in several Seeking Alpha articles. It has a 4.5% yield at today’s prices, it hiked the dividend by 8% after the most recent quarterly release.What does TD have going for it this year?Like most banks, it benefits from rising credit card spending, which has been reported by Mastercard (MA) and others. Also like most banks, it stands to gain if the expected 2023 recession is mild rather than severe, as its 22% price decline (from all-time highs) appears to price in much more than just “mild” economic turbulence. The two points just mentioned apply to most North American banks. Why, then, do I single out TD in a list of just a handful of stocks?It comes down to catalysts.TD has two big acquisitions on the horizon, both of which could take earnings higher.First, there’s the First Horizon (FHN) deal. TD has a deal in the works to buy FHN for $13.4 billion. FHN has $861 million in ttm net income. Its most recent quarter’s earnings would produce $10.76 billion in earnings if repeated for the next three quarters. So, TD could add about $1.076 billion in earnings by closing the FHN deal. The deal is facing some regulatory scrutiny, so closing isn’t a sure thing, but if it does close, then TD will get a quick earnings boost.Next up, there’s Cowen (NASDAQ:COWN). That company does $128 million in annual earnings. As an investment bank, it’s not doing great this year: its earnings are declining. However, those declining earnings are why TD was able to buy it at a slight discount to its all-time high. The FHN deal was criticized on valuation grounds, it’s hard to say the same thing about the Cowen deal which, should it close, will push TD’s 2023 deal-related earnings over $1.1 billion.Bank of America Bank of America is a stock I bought all year long last year, and have been very excited about in general. A few of the points I mentioned about TD apply here too; namely, rising credit card spend and a possible positive reaction to a merely-mild recession. However, Bank of America scores a little better than TD on one specific factor:Mortgage risk.Banks issue mortgages, and mortgage defaults are a major source of bank risk during recessions. When people lose their jobs, they tend to default on their mortgages. It’s a big risk for banks. Bank of America is less exposed to it than TD is.Bank of America does almost all of its lending in the U.S., TD does 60% of its lending in Canada. This is a risk for TD because the average Canadian house is far more expensive than the average U.S. house. At the height of Canada’s housing bubble, Canadian homes cost nearly twice as much as U.S. homes, or 1.6 times more in nominal terms. Today, the gap is narrower, but Canadian houses are still more expensive. According to The Zebra, a U.S. house costs $348,000 on average. According to the CBC, the average Canadian house costs C$632,000. The current CAD/USD exchange rate is 0.74, so the average Canadian house costs $464,000 in PPP terms. Americans have slightly more after-tax income than Canadians do, so it would appear that Americans are less at risk of mortgage defaults this year compared to Canadians. This factor helps Bank of America, relatively speaking, as it does much more U.S. lending than TD does.Beyond that, Bank of America stock is cheap, trading at 10.5 times earnings, 2.98 times sales, and 1.12 times book value. Overall, it’s a great dividend growth stock.AppleLast but not least, we have Apple Inc. This is a stock I’ve covered extensively in past articles. Unlike Bank of America and TD, Apple fell compared to where it was when I last covered it, so naturally, I got more interested.Apple stock is not exactly bursting with yield. At today’s prices, it yields just 0.53%, which isn’t much. However, it has a 9 year dividend growth streak. To be honest, even if a company raises its dividend every single year, it will take some time to get a hefty yield when it’s starting from 0.53%. However, dividend growth is in itself a good signal. A company can pay an unsustainable dividend for a while, it takes real strength to keep paying dividends for decades. In this light, Apple’s dividend growth track record speaks for itself.What else does Apple have going for it?Unlike a few other stocks on this list, it’s not exactly a value play. Trading at 20 times earnings and 39 times book value, it’s far and away the most expensive stock I own. What Apple does have going for it is its competitive position. It has the world’s most valuable brand, and an inter-connected ecosystem of software and hardware offerings that incentivizes buying multiple products instead of just one. As a result of its ecosystem, Apple collects a high level of revenue per user. Definitely a great company.The Bottom LineThe bottom line on dividend growth stocks is that they’re some of the best assets you can buy. Like all dividend stocks, they offer income, but unlike certain high-yield names, they tend to have very strong business performance. Personally, I’m going to be buying a lot of dividend growth stocks this year. If you’re interested in doing the same, any one of the four names above would be a great place to start.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343665684287600,"gmtCreate":1724943234861,"gmtModify":1725417653036,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343665684287600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330954795303024,"gmtCreate":1721829588814,"gmtModify":1721891821987,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/330954795303024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955890564,"gmtCreate":1675311736259,"gmtModify":1676538992040,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>buyyyyyyyyyyyy","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>buyyyyyyyyyyyy","text":"$DJIA(.DJI)$ buyyyyyyyyyyyy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955890564","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992577438,"gmtCreate":1661348894928,"gmtModify":1676536500995,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992577438","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160119226,"gmtCreate":1623774499365,"gmtModify":1703819154749,"author":{"id":"3571374753654047","authorId":"3571374753654047","name":"Jynsy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571374753654047","authorIdStr":"3571374753654047"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Darn","listText":"Darn","text":"Darn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160119226","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}