追高风 personal page - To The Moon

追高风

追高风

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2021-08-13

Good

开盘：恒指低开0.84%，李宁绩后开涨超4%

2021-07-21

Yes la

奈飞二季度EPS和下季指引不佳，盘后一度跌近6%

2021-07-19

?

中金海外：美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长

2021-07-13

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$yo....

2021-07-13

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-07-13

Okay

为了芯片！刚刚，1.7万亿美团也出手了！

2021-07-02

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-07-01

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-27

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$hold

2021-06-26

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-20

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-17

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-15

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-14

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-13

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-12

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$up

2021-06-03

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$up please

2021-06-02

Yes

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-01

$SINGAPORE POST LIMITED(S08.SI)$huat ah

2021-05-28

$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$?

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06913\">华南职业教育</a>跌2.17%。</p>\n<p>港股碳中和概念股走强，$中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600811\">东方集团</a>(00581)$涨超13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00257\">光大环境</a>涨4.24%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00750\">水发兴业能源</a>涨1.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06865\">福莱特玻璃</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00868\">信义玻璃</a>涨超0.85%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>称因资源供应短缺看好锂行业板块行情。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">李宁</a>涨超4%，上半年净利润增长187%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>跌3.2%，Q2因快手市值调整造成公允价值损失31亿元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01415\">高伟电子</a>跌7.33%，上半年收益同比减少约3.2%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">理想汽车-W</a>港股上市次日跌0.85%，报116港元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：恒指低开0.84%，李宁绩后开涨超4%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-13 09:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>8月13日，恒生指数开盘下跌221.63点，跌幅0.84%，报26296.19点；国企指数开盘下跌90.68点，跌幅0.96%，报9374.78点；红筹指数开盘下跌10.27点，跌幅0.27%，报3818.03点。</p>\n<p>恒生科技指数跌1.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00780\">同程艺龙</a>跌2.69%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">阿里健康</a>跌2.46%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>跌2.24%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>跌近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">京东健康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>跌约1.7%。</p>\n<p>港股教育股下挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00667\">中国东方教育</a>跌超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">新东方-S</a>跌近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01773\">天立教育</a>跌2.65%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06913\">华南职业教育</a>跌2.17%。</p>\n<p>港股碳中和概念股走强，$中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600811\">东方集团</a>(00581)$涨超13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00257\">光大环境</a>涨4.24%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00750\">水发兴业能源</a>涨1.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06865\">福莱特玻璃</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00868\">信义玻璃</a>涨超0.85%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>称因资源供应短缺看好锂行业板块行情。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">李宁</a>涨超4%，上半年净利润增长187%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>跌3.2%，Q2因快手市值调整造成公允价值损失31亿元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01415\">高伟电子</a>跌7.33%，上半年收益同比减少约3.2%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">理想汽车-W</a>港股上市次日跌0.85%，报116港元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数","02833":"恒指ETF","02331":"李宁"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196719671","content_text":"8月13日，恒生指数开盘下跌221.63点，跌幅0.84%，报26296.19点；国企指数开盘下跌90.68点，跌幅0.96%，报9374.78点；红筹指数开盘下跌10.27点，跌幅0.27%，报3818.03点。\n恒生科技指数跌1.26%，同程艺龙跌2.69%，阿里健康跌2.46%，腾讯控股跌2.24%，美团-W跌近2%，阿里巴巴-SW与京东健康、网易-S跌约1.7%。\n港股教育股下挫，中国东方教育跌超8%，新东方-S跌近4%，天立教育跌2.65%，华南职业教育跌2.17%。\n港股碳中和概念股走强，$中国东方集团(00581)$涨超13%，光大环境涨4.24%，水发兴业能源涨1.7%，福莱特玻璃与信义玻璃涨超0.85%，国金证券称因资源供应短缺看好锂行业板块行情。\n李宁涨超4%，上半年净利润增长187%。\n百度集团-SW跌3.2%，Q2因快手市值调整造成公允价值损失31亿元。\n高伟电子跌7.33%，上半年收益同比减少约3.2%。\n理想汽车-W港股上市次日跌0.85%，报116港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178260776,"gmtCreate":1626823962995,"gmtModify":1703765755507,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571463119794412","authorIdStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes la","listText":"Yes la","text":"Yes la","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178260776","repostId":"1193178615","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193178615","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626822258,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193178615?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 07:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"奈飞二季度EPS和下季指引不佳，盘后一度跌近6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193178615","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间7月20日周二美股盘后，作为“疫情经济”的受益者，美国视频流媒体巨头奈飞$(NFLX)$发布了备受瞩目的2021财年第二季度财报。\n\n因每股收益EPS这一盈利指标大幅逊于市场预期，CNBC一度","content":"<blockquote>\n 美东时间7月20日周二美股盘后，作为“疫情经济”的受益者，美国视频流媒体巨头奈飞<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$(NFLX)$</a>发布了备受瞩目的2021财年第二季度财报。\n</blockquote>\n<p>因每股收益EPS这一盈利指标大幅逊于市场预期，CNBC一度援引机构数据称新增用户数也不如预期，盘后股价从上涨0.2%迅速转跌，一度跌近6%，随后转涨。</p>\n<p>当日盘初，奈飞一度跌超2%，美股午盘后止跌转涨，日内最高涨0.8%，但最终还是收涨0.2%，报收531.05美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bec16059e1542f39eef989094d521e\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>截至周二收盘，公司今年迄今股价累跌1.8%，跑输同期标普500指数大盘累涨15%的表现。</b>在FAAMNG明星科技股中，奈飞也是唯一今年内累跌的巨头，过去一年的总回报率明显落后。自4月20日公布一季报以来，该股累跌超3%，逊于纳指同期逾1%的涨幅，距今年1月所创新高跌超10%，进入技术性回调区间。</p>\n<p><b>二季度EPS、净新增订户弱于预期，北美订户环比减少，三季度指引也不佳</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b9050c0fe54aa8a5c29fddf33ce491e\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">财报显示，奈飞今年二季度营收73.4亿美元，略高于分析师预期的73.2亿美元，以及公司给出的官方指引73亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>但营收同比增长19.4%，接近15个季度以来最慢增速，</b>远低于一季度的24.2%。此前分析师便预期，随着流媒体市场出现饱和迹象，奈飞的营收增速将放缓。</p>\n<p>奈飞每股收益也大幅弱于预期，当季EPS为2.97美元，分析师预期3.14美元，公司给出的官方指引曾为3.16美元。这代表EPS同比增近87%，而非预期的接近翻倍般“强劲增长”。</p>\n<p>同时，二季度全球流媒体付费用户数净新增154万，高于公司官方指引的新增100万，但弱于FactSet统计的分析师预期增加175万，不过彭博社统计的市场预期为增加112万。公司二季度末的流媒体付费总会员数升至2.092亿。</p>\n<p><b>这代表当季的全球付费订户数量同比增8.4%，接近14个季度以来最慢增速。</b>而在2020年二季度净新增付费用户曾猛涨1006万，为史上第二高，仅次于去年一季度净新增1577万所创的最高纪录。</p>\n<p>季度营业利润率为25.2%，与市场预期一致，略低于官方指引的25.5%，也低于今年一季度录得27.4%的历史最高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ad627950fbea0c2aa07f5342322e9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>另一则坏消息是，二季度奈飞北美（美国和加拿大）付费订阅用户环比减少，</b>较今年一季度下降43万至7395万，市场曾预期环比增加逾5.2万。公司承认当地市场接近饱和，也强调存在典型的季节因素，例如2019年二季度（疫情前可比项）也环比减少10万。</p>\n<p>公司在EMEA（欧洲、中东、非洲）的净新增付费用户量较预期腰斩，但在南美和亚太市场的净增量较预期至少翻倍，其中亚太市场占全球净增量的2/3。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30cbb1966f44892a40be2efc64c809e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>公司提供的官方指引也不尽如人意：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 预计三季度流媒体付费用户数净增350万，弱于分析师预期的增加586万；预计三季度EPS为2.55美元，高于分析师预期的2.17美元；预计三季度营收74.8亿美元，与市场预期一致。同时，维持全年运营利润率在20%不变，弱于分析师预期的20.7%；预计全年自由现金流大约为零，显著低于分析师预期的1.080亿美元。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4492c8b3d863df02b7294cbfa0befc8\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n</blockquote>\n<p>奈飞在致投资者信中解释称：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “新冠疫情在我们的会员增长中造成了一些不稳定因素（2020 年增长更快，今年增长放缓），而这一预期正在逐步实现。 \n <b>公司正处于进军游戏业务的早期阶段，订阅用户在享受游戏服务时不会增加成本。”</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>此前分析指出，在关注财报表现和“全球付费流媒体订阅数”（在财报中为全球流媒体付费会员项）这一关键指标的同时，投资者更聚焦于奈飞未来进军视频游戏的战略。</p>\n<p>同时，公司给出的第三季度订户增量指引也很重要，因为疫情对业绩影响主要体现在去年上半年，下半年的同比对比噪音相对更少。如果奈飞不能暗示下半年新用户增长强劲，股价将继续承压。</p>\n<p>今年一季度，奈飞营收和盈利都高于市场预期，营收同比猛增24%至历史新高，但付费订阅用户增长大幅下滑且降幅度远超预期，盘后股价跳水、迅速下跌13%。公司当时警告称，疫情期间的观众激增红利恐已结束，也令受益于疫情期间居家禁足令的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>等个股齐跌。</p>\n<p><b>“甩锅”疫情异常和重申内容储备充足后，奈飞预计下半年付费订户重新加速增长</b></p>\n<p><b>全球付费流媒体订阅数是衡量奈飞可货币化用户基数的关键指标，因为流媒体会员收入仍占公司营收的大头（即核心业务）。</b>去年末，这一总数曾首度超过2亿，但由于流媒体领域竞争加剧，以及经济重新开放降低了居家娱乐占消费者支出的权重，奈飞的付费订阅用户数增长已显著放缓。</p>\n<p>目前，奈飞在视频流媒体领域正面临来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Apple TV+、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>+、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>Prime Video、电信巨头AT&amp;T旗下的HBO Max等同业的激烈竞争。美国流媒体市场也日趋饱和，超过80%的美国消费者至少订阅了一项流媒体服务，订阅者平均为四种独立服务付费，代表市场增量空间非常有限。</p>\n<p><b>历史数据显示，从2015财年起，奈飞的全球付费流媒体订阅用户年增长率便呈稳步下降趋势，仅在2018财年和2020财年短暂加速。</b>其中，去年明显受益于疫情的居家禁足令，该指标在2020财年一季度同比增长22.8%，去年二季度的同比增幅进一步加速至27.3%。随后在去年第三、第四季度分别放缓至23.3%和21.9%，今年一季度则进一步显著放缓至13.6%。</p>\n<p>奈飞曾在发布今年一季报时，将用户增长格外疲软归咎于基数效应和疫情影响内容生产。一方面，2020年史无前例的新冠疫情给公司带来史无前例的用户增长，这将拖累今年的同比表现。疫情同时推迟内容生产，令今年上半年新增内容清淡，因此用户增量疲软并非同行竞争的实质影响：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “奈飞称，去年的疫情导致内容制作推迟，因此今年的内容将更集中在下半年推出。下半年将有大批影视剧作回归，比如新一季的《性爱自修室》（Sex Education）、《猎魔人》（The Witcher）、《纸钞屋》（La Casa de Papel）以及原创电影《亲吻亭》（The Kissing Booth）3、盖尔·加朵等主演的《红色通缉令》（Red Notice）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0ONG.UK\">莱昂纳多</a>·迪卡普里奥、凯特·布兰切特等明星主演的《不要抬头》（Don’t Look Up）。奈飞预计，下半年付费用户将重新加快增长。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>未来看什么？奈飞在视频游戏、活动组织和电商卖货等新领域的进展</b></p>\n<p>在核心视频流媒体业务的订户增长趋缓之际，奈飞正在寻求多元化。</p>\n<p>分析指出，<b>华尔街和好莱坞都在关注公司管理层能否在二季报电话会上透露任何新业务规划方向的信号，特别是在视频游戏、线下线下活动组织以及电商卖货等关键领域的进展</b>。</p>\n<p>在二季报发布前，奈飞实则动作频频：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 6月公司开设了一家线上商店，销售《怪奇物语》、《猎魔人》、入围2021年艾美奖剧情类最佳剧集提名的《布里奇顿》（Bridgerton）等周边产品。一周前的消息确认5月底的传闻，奈飞聘请了美国艺电公司和Facebook前高管Mike Verdu来领导向视频游戏领域进军。奈飞还扩大了与知名制片人Shonda Rhimes旗下公司的多年独家协议，将合作关系从电视扩展到电影、游戏、周边商品、虚拟现实和现场活动。\n</blockquote>\n<p>券商Bernstein分析师Todd Juenger上周四发布研报称，金融市场对此的初步反应积极，“奈飞将有超过20种不同的方式来进军电子游戏”。他也不认为奈飞是故意在财报发布前公布这些新战略，借此转移其核心流媒体业务在二、三季度继续疲软的市场注意力。</p>\n<p><b>华尔街多头看好下半年内容供应支持订户加速增长，唱衰者警告北美市场饱和</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>分析师Doug Anmuth此前指出，对全球下载量的分析表明，奈飞今年二季度的全球净新增订户为约200万，高于他此前预期的160万和市场共识预期的150万至175万，主要受到6月下旬新内容陆续发布的强力推动，“但相对超过2亿用户基数来说，这种增量绝对值仍然很小。”</p>\n<p>由于“今年下半年的新内容供应可能是奈飞有史以来六个月最强”，他认为奈飞下半年订户关键指标将大幅改善，预计半年里在全球净新增1425万订户，其中第三季度新增525万，第四季度加速新增900万，均代表同比增长，因此“管理层谈到未来半年的计划将对提振整体信心很重要”。他维持“买入”评级和600美元目标价，代表还有近10%的上行空间。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>分析师Nat Schindler认为，鉴于公司史上第二季度通常展现季节特征，即用户净新增数本身很小（约占总订阅人数的0.5%），预计二季度该指标相较市场预期的变动并不那么重要，第三季度订户新增指引更能反映是否可以重回疫情前每年净新增2500万的总趋势。他也承认，今年下半年热门剧集等大型内容密集发布，将成为明年整体订户增长的驱动力。</p>\n<p>此外，同为看涨奈飞的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>分析师John Hodulik维持“买入”评级和620美元目标价，更看好亚洲业务的强劲势头。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师评级“增持”和650美元目标价，理由也是看好更多内容即将推出，支持2021/22年第四季度的订户净增量提速的预测。</p>\n<p>不过，券商Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter上周重申对奈飞“跑输大盘”的评级和342美元目标价，代表还有深达36%的下行空间。他认为，奈飞确实在视频流媒体领域拥有相当大的先发优势，全球用户接近2.1亿，“然而这个数字掩盖了其在北美市场接近饱和的事实，近7500万订阅会员约占所有家庭数的60%。”</p>\n<p>券商Evercore ISI 分析师Mark Mahaney也警告称，考虑到奈飞的新内容提供仍然相对少、多地区价格上涨的影响，以及 Disney+ 和 HBO 在国际市场上推出的一系列竞品，华尔街对奈飞第三季度全球付费订户净增加600万的估计似乎过于激进。</p>\n<p>上文提到看涨奈飞的大摩分析师Swinburne也承认，经济重新开放后消费者行为的变化，以及2020年内容生产延迟挥之不去的影响表明，华尔街的第二/三季度订户新增共识预期存在风险。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>奈飞二季度EPS和下季指引不佳，盘后一度跌近6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n奈飞二季度EPS和下季指引不佳，盘后一度跌近6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-21 07:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 美东时间7月20日周二美股盘后，作为“疫情经济”的受益者，美国视频流媒体巨头奈飞<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$(NFLX)$</a>发布了备受瞩目的2021财年第二季度财报。\n</blockquote>\n<p>因每股收益EPS这一盈利指标大幅逊于市场预期，CNBC一度援引机构数据称新增用户数也不如预期，盘后股价从上涨0.2%迅速转跌，一度跌近6%，随后转涨。</p>\n<p>当日盘初，奈飞一度跌超2%，美股午盘后止跌转涨，日内最高涨0.8%，但最终还是收涨0.2%，报收531.05美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bec16059e1542f39eef989094d521e\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>截至周二收盘，公司今年迄今股价累跌1.8%，跑输同期标普500指数大盘累涨15%的表现。</b>在FAAMNG明星科技股中，奈飞也是唯一今年内累跌的巨头，过去一年的总回报率明显落后。自4月20日公布一季报以来，该股累跌超3%，逊于纳指同期逾1%的涨幅，距今年1月所创新高跌超10%，进入技术性回调区间。</p>\n<p><b>二季度EPS、净新增订户弱于预期，北美订户环比减少，三季度指引也不佳</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b9050c0fe54aa8a5c29fddf33ce491e\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">财报显示，奈飞今年二季度营收73.4亿美元，略高于分析师预期的73.2亿美元，以及公司给出的官方指引73亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>但营收同比增长19.4%，接近15个季度以来最慢增速，</b>远低于一季度的24.2%。此前分析师便预期，随着流媒体市场出现饱和迹象，奈飞的营收增速将放缓。</p>\n<p>奈飞每股收益也大幅弱于预期，当季EPS为2.97美元，分析师预期3.14美元，公司给出的官方指引曾为3.16美元。这代表EPS同比增近87%，而非预期的接近翻倍般“强劲增长”。</p>\n<p>同时，二季度全球流媒体付费用户数净新增154万，高于公司官方指引的新增100万，但弱于FactSet统计的分析师预期增加175万，不过彭博社统计的市场预期为增加112万。公司二季度末的流媒体付费总会员数升至2.092亿。</p>\n<p><b>这代表当季的全球付费订户数量同比增8.4%，接近14个季度以来最慢增速。</b>而在2020年二季度净新增付费用户曾猛涨1006万，为史上第二高，仅次于去年一季度净新增1577万所创的最高纪录。</p>\n<p>季度营业利润率为25.2%，与市场预期一致，略低于官方指引的25.5%，也低于今年一季度录得27.4%的历史最高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ad627950fbea0c2aa07f5342322e9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>另一则坏消息是，二季度奈飞北美（美国和加拿大）付费订阅用户环比减少，</b>较今年一季度下降43万至7395万，市场曾预期环比增加逾5.2万。公司承认当地市场接近饱和，也强调存在典型的季节因素，例如2019年二季度（疫情前可比项）也环比减少10万。</p>\n<p>公司在EMEA（欧洲、中东、非洲）的净新增付费用户量较预期腰斩，但在南美和亚太市场的净增量较预期至少翻倍，其中亚太市场占全球净增量的2/3。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30cbb1966f44892a40be2efc64c809e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>公司提供的官方指引也不尽如人意：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 预计三季度流媒体付费用户数净增350万，弱于分析师预期的增加586万；预计三季度EPS为2.55美元，高于分析师预期的2.17美元；预计三季度营收74.8亿美元，与市场预期一致。同时，维持全年运营利润率在20%不变，弱于分析师预期的20.7%；预计全年自由现金流大约为零，显著低于分析师预期的1.080亿美元。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4492c8b3d863df02b7294cbfa0befc8\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n</blockquote>\n<p>奈飞在致投资者信中解释称：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “新冠疫情在我们的会员增长中造成了一些不稳定因素（2020 年增长更快，今年增长放缓），而这一预期正在逐步实现。 \n <b>公司正处于进军游戏业务的早期阶段，订阅用户在享受游戏服务时不会增加成本。”</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>此前分析指出，在关注财报表现和“全球付费流媒体订阅数”（在财报中为全球流媒体付费会员项）这一关键指标的同时，投资者更聚焦于奈飞未来进军视频游戏的战略。</p>\n<p>同时，公司给出的第三季度订户增量指引也很重要，因为疫情对业绩影响主要体现在去年上半年，下半年的同比对比噪音相对更少。如果奈飞不能暗示下半年新用户增长强劲，股价将继续承压。</p>\n<p>今年一季度，奈飞营收和盈利都高于市场预期，营收同比猛增24%至历史新高，但付费订阅用户增长大幅下滑且降幅度远超预期，盘后股价跳水、迅速下跌13%。公司当时警告称，疫情期间的观众激增红利恐已结束，也令受益于疫情期间居家禁足令的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>等个股齐跌。</p>\n<p><b>“甩锅”疫情异常和重申内容储备充足后，奈飞预计下半年付费订户重新加速增长</b></p>\n<p><b>全球付费流媒体订阅数是衡量奈飞可货币化用户基数的关键指标，因为流媒体会员收入仍占公司营收的大头（即核心业务）。</b>去年末，这一总数曾首度超过2亿，但由于流媒体领域竞争加剧，以及经济重新开放降低了居家娱乐占消费者支出的权重，奈飞的付费订阅用户数增长已显著放缓。</p>\n<p>目前，奈飞在视频流媒体领域正面临来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Apple TV+、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>+、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>Prime Video、电信巨头AT&amp;T旗下的HBO Max等同业的激烈竞争。美国流媒体市场也日趋饱和，超过80%的美国消费者至少订阅了一项流媒体服务，订阅者平均为四种独立服务付费，代表市场增量空间非常有限。</p>\n<p><b>历史数据显示，从2015财年起，奈飞的全球付费流媒体订阅用户年增长率便呈稳步下降趋势，仅在2018财年和2020财年短暂加速。</b>其中，去年明显受益于疫情的居家禁足令，该指标在2020财年一季度同比增长22.8%，去年二季度的同比增幅进一步加速至27.3%。随后在去年第三、第四季度分别放缓至23.3%和21.9%，今年一季度则进一步显著放缓至13.6%。</p>\n<p>奈飞曾在发布今年一季报时，将用户增长格外疲软归咎于基数效应和疫情影响内容生产。一方面，2020年史无前例的新冠疫情给公司带来史无前例的用户增长，这将拖累今年的同比表现。疫情同时推迟内容生产，令今年上半年新增内容清淡，因此用户增量疲软并非同行竞争的实质影响：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “奈飞称，去年的疫情导致内容制作推迟，因此今年的内容将更集中在下半年推出。下半年将有大批影视剧作回归，比如新一季的《性爱自修室》（Sex Education）、《猎魔人》（The Witcher）、《纸钞屋》（La Casa de Papel）以及原创电影《亲吻亭》（The Kissing Booth）3、盖尔·加朵等主演的《红色通缉令》（Red Notice）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0ONG.UK\">莱昂纳多</a>·迪卡普里奥、凯特·布兰切特等明星主演的《不要抬头》（Don’t Look Up）。奈飞预计，下半年付费用户将重新加快增长。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>未来看什么？奈飞在视频游戏、活动组织和电商卖货等新领域的进展</b></p>\n<p>在核心视频流媒体业务的订户增长趋缓之际，奈飞正在寻求多元化。</p>\n<p>分析指出，<b>华尔街和好莱坞都在关注公司管理层能否在二季报电话会上透露任何新业务规划方向的信号，特别是在视频游戏、线下线下活动组织以及电商卖货等关键领域的进展</b>。</p>\n<p>在二季报发布前，奈飞实则动作频频：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 6月公司开设了一家线上商店，销售《怪奇物语》、《猎魔人》、入围2021年艾美奖剧情类最佳剧集提名的《布里奇顿》（Bridgerton）等周边产品。一周前的消息确认5月底的传闻，奈飞聘请了美国艺电公司和Facebook前高管Mike Verdu来领导向视频游戏领域进军。奈飞还扩大了与知名制片人Shonda Rhimes旗下公司的多年独家协议，将合作关系从电视扩展到电影、游戏、周边商品、虚拟现实和现场活动。\n</blockquote>\n<p>券商Bernstein分析师Todd Juenger上周四发布研报称，金融市场对此的初步反应积极，“奈飞将有超过20种不同的方式来进军电子游戏”。他也不认为奈飞是故意在财报发布前公布这些新战略，借此转移其核心流媒体业务在二、三季度继续疲软的市场注意力。</p>\n<p><b>华尔街多头看好下半年内容供应支持订户加速增长，唱衰者警告北美市场饱和</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>分析师Doug Anmuth此前指出，对全球下载量的分析表明，奈飞今年二季度的全球净新增订户为约200万，高于他此前预期的160万和市场共识预期的150万至175万，主要受到6月下旬新内容陆续发布的强力推动，“但相对超过2亿用户基数来说，这种增量绝对值仍然很小。”</p>\n<p>由于“今年下半年的新内容供应可能是奈飞有史以来六个月最强”，他认为奈飞下半年订户关键指标将大幅改善，预计半年里在全球净新增1425万订户，其中第三季度新增525万，第四季度加速新增900万，均代表同比增长，因此“管理层谈到未来半年的计划将对提振整体信心很重要”。他维持“买入”评级和600美元目标价，代表还有近10%的上行空间。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>分析师Nat Schindler认为，鉴于公司史上第二季度通常展现季节特征，即用户净新增数本身很小（约占总订阅人数的0.5%），预计二季度该指标相较市场预期的变动并不那么重要，第三季度订户新增指引更能反映是否可以重回疫情前每年净新增2500万的总趋势。他也承认，今年下半年热门剧集等大型内容密集发布，将成为明年整体订户增长的驱动力。</p>\n<p>此外，同为看涨奈飞的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>分析师John Hodulik维持“买入”评级和620美元目标价，更看好亚洲业务的强劲势头。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师评级“增持”和650美元目标价，理由也是看好更多内容即将推出，支持2021/22年第四季度的订户净增量提速的预测。</p>\n<p>不过，券商Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter上周重申对奈飞“跑输大盘”的评级和342美元目标价，代表还有深达36%的下行空间。他认为，奈飞确实在视频流媒体领域拥有相当大的先发优势，全球用户接近2.1亿，“然而这个数字掩盖了其在北美市场接近饱和的事实，近7500万订阅会员约占所有家庭数的60%。”</p>\n<p>券商Evercore ISI 分析师Mark Mahaney也警告称，考虑到奈飞的新内容提供仍然相对少、多地区价格上涨的影响，以及 Disney+ 和 HBO 在国际市场上推出的一系列竞品，华尔街对奈飞第三季度全球付费订户净增加600万的估计似乎过于激进。</p>\n<p>上文提到看涨奈飞的大摩分析师Swinburne也承认，经济重新开放后消费者行为的变化，以及2020年内容生产延迟挥之不去的影响表明，华尔街的第二/三季度订户新增共识预期存在风险。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2224e6b43e75f835dbd8bb6d8c4972c","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","NFLX":"奈飞"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193178615","content_text":"美东时间7月20日周二美股盘后，作为“疫情经济”的受益者，美国视频流媒体巨头奈飞$(NFLX)$发布了备受瞩目的2021财年第二季度财报。\n\n因每股收益EPS这一盈利指标大幅逊于市场预期，CNBC一度援引机构数据称新增用户数也不如预期，盘后股价从上涨0.2%迅速转跌，一度跌近6%，随后转涨。\n当日盘初，奈飞一度跌超2%，美股午盘后止跌转涨，日内最高涨0.8%，但最终还是收涨0.2%，报收531.05美元。截至周二收盘，公司今年迄今股价累跌1.8%，跑输同期标普500指数大盘累涨15%的表现。在FAAMNG明星科技股中，奈飞也是唯一今年内累跌的巨头，过去一年的总回报率明显落后。自4月20日公布一季报以来，该股累跌超3%，逊于纳指同期逾1%的涨幅，距今年1月所创新高跌超10%，进入技术性回调区间。\n二季度EPS、净新增订户弱于预期，北美订户环比减少，三季度指引也不佳财报显示，奈飞今年二季度营收73.4亿美元，略高于分析师预期的73.2亿美元，以及公司给出的官方指引73亿美元。\n但营收同比增长19.4%，接近15个季度以来最慢增速，远低于一季度的24.2%。此前分析师便预期，随着流媒体市场出现饱和迹象，奈飞的营收增速将放缓。\n奈飞每股收益也大幅弱于预期，当季EPS为2.97美元，分析师预期3.14美元，公司给出的官方指引曾为3.16美元。这代表EPS同比增近87%，而非预期的接近翻倍般“强劲增长”。\n同时，二季度全球流媒体付费用户数净新增154万，高于公司官方指引的新增100万，但弱于FactSet统计的分析师预期增加175万，不过彭博社统计的市场预期为增加112万。公司二季度末的流媒体付费总会员数升至2.092亿。\n这代表当季的全球付费订户数量同比增8.4%，接近14个季度以来最慢增速。而在2020年二季度净新增付费用户曾猛涨1006万，为史上第二高，仅次于去年一季度净新增1577万所创的最高纪录。\n季度营业利润率为25.2%，与市场预期一致，略低于官方指引的25.5%，也低于今年一季度录得27.4%的历史最高。\n\n另一则坏消息是，二季度奈飞北美（美国和加拿大）付费订阅用户环比减少，较今年一季度下降43万至7395万，市场曾预期环比增加逾5.2万。公司承认当地市场接近饱和，也强调存在典型的季节因素，例如2019年二季度（疫情前可比项）也环比减少10万。\n公司在EMEA（欧洲、中东、非洲）的净新增付费用户量较预期腰斩，但在南美和亚太市场的净增量较预期至少翻倍，其中亚太市场占全球净增量的2/3。\n\n公司提供的官方指引也不尽如人意：\n\n 预计三季度流媒体付费用户数净增350万，弱于分析师预期的增加586万；预计三季度EPS为2.55美元，高于分析师预期的2.17美元；预计三季度营收74.8亿美元，与市场预期一致。同时，维持全年运营利润率在20%不变，弱于分析师预期的20.7%；预计全年自由现金流大约为零，显著低于分析师预期的1.080亿美元。\n \n\n奈飞在致投资者信中解释称：\n\n “新冠疫情在我们的会员增长中造成了一些不稳定因素（2020 年增长更快，今年增长放缓），而这一预期正在逐步实现。 \n 公司正处于进军游戏业务的早期阶段，订阅用户在享受游戏服务时不会增加成本。”\n\n此前分析指出，在关注财报表现和“全球付费流媒体订阅数”（在财报中为全球流媒体付费会员项）这一关键指标的同时，投资者更聚焦于奈飞未来进军视频游戏的战略。\n同时，公司给出的第三季度订户增量指引也很重要，因为疫情对业绩影响主要体现在去年上半年，下半年的同比对比噪音相对更少。如果奈飞不能暗示下半年新用户增长强劲，股价将继续承压。\n今年一季度，奈飞营收和盈利都高于市场预期，营收同比猛增24%至历史新高，但付费订阅用户增长大幅下滑且降幅度远超预期，盘后股价跳水、迅速下跌13%。公司当时警告称，疫情期间的观众激增红利恐已结束，也令受益于疫情期间居家禁足令的Facebook、Zoom等个股齐跌。\n“甩锅”疫情异常和重申内容储备充足后，奈飞预计下半年付费订户重新加速增长\n全球付费流媒体订阅数是衡量奈飞可货币化用户基数的关键指标，因为流媒体会员收入仍占公司营收的大头（即核心业务）。去年末，这一总数曾首度超过2亿，但由于流媒体领域竞争加剧，以及经济重新开放降低了居家娱乐占消费者支出的权重，奈飞的付费订阅用户数增长已显著放缓。\n目前，奈飞在视频流媒体领域正面临来自苹果Apple TV+、迪士尼+、亚马逊Prime Video、电信巨头AT&T旗下的HBO Max等同业的激烈竞争。美国流媒体市场也日趋饱和，超过80%的美国消费者至少订阅了一项流媒体服务，订阅者平均为四种独立服务付费，代表市场增量空间非常有限。\n历史数据显示，从2015财年起，奈飞的全球付费流媒体订阅用户年增长率便呈稳步下降趋势，仅在2018财年和2020财年短暂加速。其中，去年明显受益于疫情的居家禁足令，该指标在2020财年一季度同比增长22.8%，去年二季度的同比增幅进一步加速至27.3%。随后在去年第三、第四季度分别放缓至23.3%和21.9%，今年一季度则进一步显著放缓至13.6%。\n奈飞曾在发布今年一季报时，将用户增长格外疲软归咎于基数效应和疫情影响内容生产。一方面，2020年史无前例的新冠疫情给公司带来史无前例的用户增长，这将拖累今年的同比表现。疫情同时推迟内容生产，令今年上半年新增内容清淡，因此用户增量疲软并非同行竞争的实质影响：\n\n “奈飞称，去年的疫情导致内容制作推迟，因此今年的内容将更集中在下半年推出。下半年将有大批影视剧作回归，比如新一季的《性爱自修室》（Sex Education）、《猎魔人》（The Witcher）、《纸钞屋》（La Casa de Papel）以及原创电影《亲吻亭》（The Kissing Booth）3、盖尔·加朵等主演的《红色通缉令》（Red Notice）、莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥、凯特·布兰切特等明星主演的《不要抬头》（Don’t Look Up）。奈飞预计，下半年付费用户将重新加快增长。”\n\n未来看什么？奈飞在视频游戏、活动组织和电商卖货等新领域的进展\n在核心视频流媒体业务的订户增长趋缓之际，奈飞正在寻求多元化。\n分析指出，华尔街和好莱坞都在关注公司管理层能否在二季报电话会上透露任何新业务规划方向的信号，特别是在视频游戏、线下线下活动组织以及电商卖货等关键领域的进展。\n在二季报发布前，奈飞实则动作频频：\n\n 6月公司开设了一家线上商店，销售《怪奇物语》、《猎魔人》、入围2021年艾美奖剧情类最佳剧集提名的《布里奇顿》（Bridgerton）等周边产品。一周前的消息确认5月底的传闻，奈飞聘请了美国艺电公司和Facebook前高管Mike Verdu来领导向视频游戏领域进军。奈飞还扩大了与知名制片人Shonda Rhimes旗下公司的多年独家协议，将合作关系从电视扩展到电影、游戏、周边商品、虚拟现实和现场活动。\n\n券商Bernstein分析师Todd Juenger上周四发布研报称，金融市场对此的初步反应积极，“奈飞将有超过20种不同的方式来进军电子游戏”。他也不认为奈飞是故意在财报发布前公布这些新战略，借此转移其核心流媒体业务在二、三季度继续疲软的市场注意力。\n华尔街多头看好下半年内容供应支持订户加速增长，唱衰者警告北美市场饱和\n摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth此前指出，对全球下载量的分析表明，奈飞今年二季度的全球净新增订户为约200万，高于他此前预期的160万和市场共识预期的150万至175万，主要受到6月下旬新内容陆续发布的强力推动，“但相对超过2亿用户基数来说，这种增量绝对值仍然很小。”\n由于“今年下半年的新内容供应可能是奈飞有史以来六个月最强”，他认为奈飞下半年订户关键指标将大幅改善，预计半年里在全球净新增1425万订户，其中第三季度新增525万，第四季度加速新增900万，均代表同比增长，因此“管理层谈到未来半年的计划将对提振整体信心很重要”。他维持“买入”评级和600美元目标价，代表还有近10%的上行空间。\n美国银行分析师Nat Schindler认为，鉴于公司史上第二季度通常展现季节特征，即用户净新增数本身很小（约占总订阅人数的0.5%），预计二季度该指标相较市场预期的变动并不那么重要，第三季度订户新增指引更能反映是否可以重回疫情前每年净新增2500万的总趋势。他也承认，今年下半年热门剧集等大型内容密集发布，将成为明年整体订户增长的驱动力。\n此外，同为看涨奈飞的瑞银分析师John Hodulik维持“买入”评级和620美元目标价，更看好亚洲业务的强劲势头。摩根士丹利分析师评级“增持”和650美元目标价，理由也是看好更多内容即将推出，支持2021/22年第四季度的订户净增量提速的预测。\n不过，券商Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter上周重申对奈飞“跑输大盘”的评级和342美元目标价，代表还有深达36%的下行空间。他认为，奈飞确实在视频流媒体领域拥有相当大的先发优势，全球用户接近2.1亿，“然而这个数字掩盖了其在北美市场接近饱和的事实，近7500万订阅会员约占所有家庭数的60%。”\n券商Evercore ISI 分析师Mark Mahaney也警告称，考虑到奈飞的新内容提供仍然相对少、多地区价格上涨的影响，以及 Disney+ 和 HBO 在国际市场上推出的一系列竞品，华尔街对奈飞第三季度全球付费订户净增加600万的估计似乎过于激进。\n上文提到看涨奈飞的大摩分析师Swinburne也承认，经济重新开放后消费者行为的变化，以及2020年内容生产延迟挥之不去的影响表明，华尔街的第二/三季度订户新增共识预期存在风险。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173899862,"gmtCreate":1626651474656,"gmtModify":1703762587598,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571463119794412","authorIdStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173899862","repostId":"1151231853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151231853","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1626604009,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151231853?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 18:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中金海外：美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151231853","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角","content":"<p><b>摘要</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。<b>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。</b></p>\n<p>整体情况：二季度增长进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。</p>\n<p>参考Factset一致预期，<b>标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。</b>板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先</b>，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。</p>\n<p>关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。</b>因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲</p>\n<p>整体看，二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修，不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。<b>往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。</b></p>\n<p><b>本周焦点：即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何？</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。</p>\n<p>我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀&nbsp;vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到，市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格（例如二手车同比大涨45%，如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平）让市场认为是无法持续的，但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断（《美联储依然不急于退出》），这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。</p>\n<p><i>扣除掉二手车价格后，6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不过，抛开短期一些情绪上的变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心，<b>更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来，美股估值就基本持平，而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量</b>。因此，<b>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观</b>。</p>\n<p>实际上，一季度业绩大超预期（同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%），推动业绩持续上修（《当前美股盈利的八个特征》），当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%，2021年为11%，<b>在这样一个强劲增长下，假设其他条件不变，如果切换到2022年盈利，那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平，进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。</b></p>\n<p><i>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>下半年如果切换到2022年盈利（浅蓝色），那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平（深蓝色）</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%，市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>一、整体情况：二季度进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先</b></p>\n<p>7月中旬开始，美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望：从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析，我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复，<b>美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点</b>。具体来看，参考Factset一致预期，<b>标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。</b></p>\n<p><i>目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%，纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>除净利润外，标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升，纳斯达克略有下滑，但仍处高位</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长</b>；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。<b>从改善幅度来看，相比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显</b>，而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。</p>\n<p><i>耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显，但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>对比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大，零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>二季度以来，能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大，银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</b></p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解</b>。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看，美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平，尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%，距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。</p>\n<p>分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），<b>当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，</b>特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现，从截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面，那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快，例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业；相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。</p>\n<p><i>美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>&nbsp;尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>三、前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲</b></p>\n<p>整体来看，二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修，目前，市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%，2022年EPS同比增长10.9%；纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%，2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调 vs.下调分析师数）<b>二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。</b></p>\n<p>往前看，<b>虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</b>。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%，这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。</p>\n<p><i>二季度以来，盈利调整情绪快速上修，但5月末逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>市场动态：6月通胀超预期上行，零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲；美债利率再创新低多头增加，美元空头大降</b></p>\n<p><b>►资产表现：债&gt;股&gt;大宗；利率再创新低，周期跑输</b></p>\n<p>过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。<b>在经历了超预期的6月通胀</b>（《大超预期的通胀&nbsp;vs.相对淡定的市场》）、<b>依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词</b>（《美联储依然不急于退出》）、<b>超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后，美股市场整体小幅收跌，金融周期跑输</b>，同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%，实际利率回落，但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看，美元计价下，债&gt;股&gt;大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美元计价下，债&gt;股&gt;大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，公用事业、家庭用品领涨；能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps，其中实际利率回落11bps，通胀预期上升4bps</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输，疫情受损少板块相对跑赢</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►情绪仓位：Put/call比例抬升，美元空头大幅减少</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面，美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升；伴随美债利率的进一步回落，10年美债多头仓位大幅增加，2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。</p>\n<p><i>CBOE美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，欧美股市RSI点位均回落，日本及新兴抬升；布油回落</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美元指数多头仓位继续增加，空头仓位大幅减少，净多头大幅抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>►资金流向：货基转为流出，股市加速流入。</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币基金大幅流出；分市场看，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币市场基金转为大幅流出</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►基本面与政策：6月通胀再超预期，零售强势增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>6月美国通胀超预期上行，二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。</b>6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%，均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中，二手车价格环比跳升10.5%，贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一，缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外，机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显，例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。</p>\n<p><b>6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%</b>，高于预期的-0.3%和前值（-1.7%）。分项看，<b>汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累</b>，但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消（7月80.8，低于前值85.5并不及预期（86.5）。与此同时，上周首申人数36.0万人，低于前值（38.6万人）但不及预期的35.0万人。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周经济数据总结</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月CPI再超预期，同比5.4%环比0.9%，二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位，超8000亿美元</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>&nbsp;美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元，较上周抬升明显</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►市场估值：估值略有回落。</b></p>\n<p>伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落，当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长（6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6）和流动性（10年美债利率1.36%）能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落，但处于历史相对高位。</p>\n<p><i>当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍，超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金海外：美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金海外：美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-18 18:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>摘要</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。<b>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。</b></p>\n<p>整体情况：二季度增长进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。</p>\n<p>参考Factset一致预期，<b>标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。</b>板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先</b>，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。</p>\n<p>关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。</b>因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲</p>\n<p>整体看，二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修，不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。<b>往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。</b></p>\n<p><b>本周焦点：即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何？</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。</p>\n<p>我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀&nbsp;vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到，市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格（例如二手车同比大涨45%，如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平）让市场认为是无法持续的，但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断（《美联储依然不急于退出》），这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。</p>\n<p><i>扣除掉二手车价格后，6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不过，抛开短期一些情绪上的变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心，<b>更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来，美股估值就基本持平，而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量</b>。因此，<b>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观</b>。</p>\n<p>实际上，一季度业绩大超预期（同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%），推动业绩持续上修（《当前美股盈利的八个特征》），当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%，2021年为11%，<b>在这样一个强劲增长下，假设其他条件不变，如果切换到2022年盈利，那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平，进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。</b></p>\n<p><i>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>下半年如果切换到2022年盈利（浅蓝色），那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平（深蓝色）</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%，市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>一、整体情况：二季度进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先</b></p>\n<p>7月中旬开始，美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望：从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析，我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复，<b>美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点</b>。具体来看，参考Factset一致预期，<b>标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。</b></p>\n<p><i>目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%，纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>除净利润外，标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升，纳斯达克略有下滑，但仍处高位</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长</b>；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。<b>从改善幅度来看，相比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显</b>，而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。</p>\n<p><i>耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显，但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>对比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大，零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>二季度以来，能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大，银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</b></p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解</b>。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看，美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平，尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%，距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。</p>\n<p>分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），<b>当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，</b>特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现，从截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面，那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快，例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业；相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。</p>\n<p><i>美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>&nbsp;尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>三、前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲</b></p>\n<p>整体来看，二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修，目前，市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%，2022年EPS同比增长10.9%；纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%，2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调 vs.下调分析师数）<b>二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。</b></p>\n<p>往前看，<b>虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</b>。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%，这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。</p>\n<p><i>二季度以来，盈利调整情绪快速上修，但5月末逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>市场动态：6月通胀超预期上行，零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲；美债利率再创新低多头增加，美元空头大降</b></p>\n<p><b>►资产表现：债&gt;股&gt;大宗；利率再创新低，周期跑输</b></p>\n<p>过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。<b>在经历了超预期的6月通胀</b>（《大超预期的通胀&nbsp;vs.相对淡定的市场》）、<b>依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词</b>（《美联储依然不急于退出》）、<b>超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后，美股市场整体小幅收跌，金融周期跑输</b>，同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%，实际利率回落，但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看，美元计价下，债&gt;股&gt;大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美元计价下，债&gt;股&gt;大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，公用事业、家庭用品领涨；能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps，其中实际利率回落11bps，通胀预期上升4bps</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输，疫情受损少板块相对跑赢</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►情绪仓位：Put/call比例抬升，美元空头大幅减少</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面，美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升；伴随美债利率的进一步回落，10年美债多头仓位大幅增加，2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。</p>\n<p><i>CBOE美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，欧美股市RSI点位均回落，日本及新兴抬升；布油回落</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美元指数多头仓位继续增加，空头仓位大幅减少，净多头大幅抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>►资金流向：货基转为流出，股市加速流入。</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币基金大幅流出；分市场看，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币市场基金转为大幅流出</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►基本面与政策：6月通胀再超预期，零售强势增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>6月美国通胀超预期上行，二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。</b>6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%，均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中，二手车价格环比跳升10.5%，贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一，缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外，机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显，例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。</p>\n<p><b>6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%</b>，高于预期的-0.3%和前值（-1.7%）。分项看，<b>汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累</b>，但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消（7月80.8，低于前值85.5并不及预期（86.5）。与此同时，上周首申人数36.0万人，低于前值（38.6万人）但不及预期的35.0万人。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周经济数据总结</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月CPI再超预期，同比5.4%环比0.9%，二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位，超8000亿美元</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>&nbsp;美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元，较上周抬升明显</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►市场估值：估值略有回落。</b></p>\n<p>伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落，当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长（6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6）和流动性（10年美债利率1.36%）能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落，但处于历史相对高位。</p>\n<p><i>当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍，超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151231853","content_text":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n整体情况：二季度增长进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。\n参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。\n关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体看，二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修，不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。\n本周焦点：即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何？\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。\n我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到，市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格（例如二手车同比大涨45%，如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平）让市场认为是无法持续的，但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断（《美联储依然不急于退出》），这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。\n扣除掉二手车价格后，6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平\n\n不过，抛开短期一些情绪上的变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心，更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来，美股估值就基本持平，而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量。因此，从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n实际上，一季度业绩大超预期（同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%），推动业绩持续上修（《当前美股盈利的八个特征》），当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%，2021年为11%，在这样一个强劲增长下，假设其他条件不变，如果切换到2022年盈利，那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平，进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。\n从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观\n\n美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平\n\n下半年如果切换到2022年盈利（浅蓝色），那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平（深蓝色）\n\n标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%，市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%\n\n一、整体情况：二季度进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先\n7月中旬开始，美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望：从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析，我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复，美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点。具体来看，参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。\n目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%，纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%\n\n除净利润外，标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升，纳斯达克略有下滑，但仍处高位\n\n板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。从改善幅度来看，相比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显，而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。\n耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显，但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后\n\n这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致\n\n对比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大，零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑\n\n二季度以来，能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大，银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著\n\n二、关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看，美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平，尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%，距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。\n分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现，从截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面，那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快，例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业；相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。\n美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平\n\n 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%\n\n汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低\n\n特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高\n\n截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面\n\n三、前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体来看，二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修，目前，市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%，2022年EPS同比增长10.9%；纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%，2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调 vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。\n往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%，这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。\n二季度以来，盈利调整情绪快速上修，但5月末逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去\n\n我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放\n\n市场动态：6月通胀超预期上行，零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲；美债利率再创新低多头增加，美元空头大降\n►资产表现：债>股>大宗；利率再创新低，周期跑输\n过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。在经历了超预期的6月通胀（《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》）、依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词（《美联储依然不急于退出》）、超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后，美股市场整体小幅收跌，金融周期跑输，同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%，实际利率回落，但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。\n过去一周，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌\n\n过去一周，公用事业、家庭用品领涨；能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌\n\n过去一周，10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps，其中实际利率回落11bps，通胀预期上升4bps\n\n过去一周，疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输，疫情受损少板块相对跑赢\n\n►情绪仓位：Put/call比例抬升，美元空头大幅减少\n过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面，美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升；伴随美债利率的进一步回落，10年美债多头仓位大幅增加，2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。\nCBOE美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差\n\n过去一周，欧美股市RSI点位均回落，日本及新兴抬升；布油回落\n\n过去一周，美元指数多头仓位继续增加，空头仓位大幅减少，净多头大幅抬升\n\n►资金流向：货基转为流出，股市加速流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币基金大幅流出；分市场看，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币市场基金转为大幅流出\n\n过去一周，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入\n\n►基本面与政策：6月通胀再超预期，零售强势增长。\n6月美国通胀超预期上行，二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%，均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中，二手车价格环比跳升10.5%，贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一，缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外，机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显，例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。\n6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%和前值（-1.7%）。分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累，但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消（7月80.8，低于前值85.5并不及预期（86.5）。与此同时，上周首申人数36.0万人，低于前值（38.6万人）但不及预期的35.0万人。\n过去一周经济数据总结\n\n美国6月CPI再超预期，同比5.4%环比0.9%，二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献\n\n美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%\n\n分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升\n\n过去一周，美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位，超8000亿美元\n\n 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元，较上周抬升明显\n\n►市场估值：估值略有回落。\n伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落，当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长（6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6）和流动性（10年美债利率1.36%）能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落，但处于历史相对高位。\n当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍，超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差\n\n当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142518512,"gmtCreate":1626160771436,"gmtModify":1703754543706,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571463119794412","authorIdStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>yo....","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>yo....","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$yo....","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2001bc80be5cf8e5f21cb04bd375255b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142518512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142614762,"gmtCreate":1626145780256,"gmtModify":1703754264006,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571463119794412","authorIdStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>up","listText":"<a 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Inc.(COIN)$up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00338dc69005fe8ac6362b1b53728083","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142614762","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142132694,"gmtCreate":1626135818118,"gmtModify":1703753957542,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571463119794412","authorIdStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142132694","repostId":"1153344848","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153344848","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b66b3e97274759989352a7b9f80611"},"pubTimestamp":1626135503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153344848?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 08:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"为了芯片！刚刚，1.7万亿美团也出手了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153344848","media":"中国基金报","summary":"半导体板块已成为今年最火爆的概念，A股来看，半导体指数自3月底以来，便暴涨近57%，不少个股沾上“半导体”概念都大涨。\n\n最新消息，王兴也出手了！美团旗下及关联公司双双入股半导体公司！\n王兴出手\n投资","content":"<div>\n<p>半导体板块已成为今年最火爆的概念，A股来看，半导体指数自3月底以来，便暴涨近57%，不少个股沾上“半导体”概念都大涨。\n\n最新消息，王兴也出手了！美团旗下及关联公司双双入股半导体公司！\n王兴出手\n投资半导体企业\n天眼查显示，近日，上海智砹芯半导体科技有限公司进行了B轮融资，美团关联公司酷讯科技、美团产业基金美团龙珠均在投资方上出现。\n此外，投资方还有旺泰恒辉投资基金、天创资本、耀途资本GGV纪源...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为了芯片！刚刚，1.7万亿美团也出手了！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为了芯片！刚刚，1.7万亿美团也出手了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-07-13 08:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>中国基金报</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>半导体板块已成为今年最火爆的概念，A股来看，半导体指数自3月底以来，便暴涨近57%，不少个股沾上“半导体”概念都大涨。\n\n最新消息，王兴也出手了！美团旗下及关联公司双双入股半导体公司！\n王兴出手\n投资半导体企业\n天眼查显示，近日，上海智砹芯半导体科技有限公司进行了B轮融资，美团关联公司酷讯科技、美团产业基金美团龙珠均在投资方上出现。\n此外，投资方还有旺泰恒辉投资基金、天创资本、耀途资本GGV纪源...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1238455e09ac8d1135014cb37eb0f4d","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","03690":"美团-W","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153344848","content_text":"半导体板块已成为今年最火爆的概念，A股来看，半导体指数自3月底以来，便暴涨近57%，不少个股沾上“半导体”概念都大涨。\n\n最新消息，王兴也出手了！美团旗下及关联公司双双入股半导体公司！\n王兴出手\n投资半导体企业\n天眼查显示，近日，上海智砹芯半导体科技有限公司进行了B轮融资，美团关联公司酷讯科技、美团产业基金美团龙珠均在投资方上出现。\n此外，投资方还有旺泰恒辉投资基金、天创资本、耀途资本GGV纪源资本、冯源资本。\n\n酷讯科技、美团龙珠均为美团旗下或者关联企业。北京酷讯科技有限公司由Xigua Limited全资持股，美团联合创始人穆荣均任执行董事。\n同时，上海智砹芯半导体科技发生工商变更，新增美团关联公司北京酷讯科技有限公司等为股东，同时公司注册资本由约1.75亿人民币增至约2.05亿人民币。\n\n资料显示，爱芯科技致力于高性能、低功耗人工智能处理器芯片研发，基于算法、芯片、产品的垂直整合，为合作伙伴提供全栈式解决方案，帮助客户实现最新技术快速落地。爱芯自主研发面向推理加速的神经网络处理器IP，集强大算力与超低功耗于一体，可支持物体检测、人脸识别等多种视觉任务开发，广泛应用于智慧城市，智慧零售、智能社区、智能家居、物联网设备等多个领域。\n此前投出喜茶、理想等爆款项目\n又完成了50亿元第二期基金募资\n据悉，目前，龙珠投资、美团战投以及王兴的个人投资，已经成为美团投资的“三驾马车”。此外，王兴还通过“上海汉创投资管理有限公司”和源码资本两条路径，成为辰海资本一家投资主体的最终受益人。从收益的角度看，投资业务也能赋能整个美团生态。\n其中，本次出现在爱芯科技的龙珠投资，资料显示，龙珠是美团首次发起设立美团产业基金。 美团产业基金的另一大特色是设立专业的战略顾问团队和投后管理，由王兴带队，同时包括王慧文等美团的核心管理团队。\n首期基金于 2018 年募集 20 亿元，出资人有美团、腾讯、招商资本局母基金等。\n据悉，首期基金将重点投资大消费领域C轮以前的项目投资，投资方向包括to B及to C，具体包括餐饮、零售、及酒店旅游、休闲娱乐等本地生活服务领域，单个项目的投资金额会在3000万人民币到1亿人民币之间。\n据悉，首期基金，美团龙珠资本与高瓴资本联合领投蜜雪冰城；独家投资喜茶的 B 轮融资；参与了理想汽车的 C 轮融资。现在理想汽车已经美股上市，市值 238 亿美元；蜜雪冰城也被传将于今年登陆 A 股，目前估值超 200 亿元；据多名投资人透露，目前还没有明确上市计划的喜茶，估值已达到 330 亿元。新茶饮品牌古茗奶茶，美团龙珠资本也是最大外部投资人。\n除了上述项目之外，美团龙珠资本还投资了谊品生鲜、Swiggy（印度外卖平台）、乐禾食品和幸福西饼等品牌。\n\n第二期基金近50亿元的融资在3月份举行，基石投资者中包括美团和腾讯。在完成第二期募资的同时，美团龙珠投资委员会迎来一位新的合伙人于红，成为美团龙珠投资委员会的第四位成员。\n于红先后任职于华兴资本、 GGV 纪源资本，其领域偏向科技互联网行业。在纪源资本任执行董事期间，她的投资成果包括作业帮、Musical.ly 和火花思维。\n据了解，第二期的 50 亿元除了用于继续深耕大消费的同时，将往物流等领域拓展。此前，外界曾将美团龙珠资本称为 “美团战投二部”，但在增加新的投资方向后，二者的区别会更明显。\n而王兴执掌的美团，最新市值为1.74万亿港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156277654,"gmtCreate":1625228094378,"gmtModify":1703738833041,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571463119794412","authorIdStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>up","listText":"<a 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no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136294429","repostId":"1104707088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104707088","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622016179,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104707088?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 16:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"RLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104707088","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"RLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading.\nThere is a report on the health hazards of smoking in ","content":"<p>RLX&nbsp;shares tumbled&nbsp;16% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37db14bc96219e50b02e0e2556e80f56\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"613\">There&nbsp;is&nbsp;a report on the health hazards of smoking in China was released, stating that \"there is sufficient evidence that e-cigarettes are unsafe.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>RLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-26 16:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>RLX&nbsp;shares tumbled&nbsp;16% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37db14bc96219e50b02e0e2556e80f56\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"613\">There&nbsp;is&nbsp;a report on the health hazards of smoking in China was released, stating that \"there is sufficient evidence that e-cigarettes are unsafe.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RLX":"雾芯科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104707088","content_text":"RLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading.\nThere is a report on the health hazards of smoking in China was released, stating that \"there is sufficient evidence that e-cigarettes are unsafe.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107176011,"gmtCreate":1620458476833,"gmtModify":1704344046547,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571463119794412","authorIdStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107176011","repostId":"1160802774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160802774","pubTimestamp":1620442206,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160802774?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 10:50","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160802774","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue Un","content":"<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-08 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160802774","content_text":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin ,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn cheers and jeers.Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge, tweeting back on April 1 that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin and Ethereum ,the two largest cryptos in the world.Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:1. Bitcoin: -2002. Dogecoin: +6003. FIELD: +4504. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term Dogecoin bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained about over 6% so far this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108582002,"gmtCreate":1620041595306,"gmtModify":1704337736252,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571463119794412","authorIdStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha, r u serious","listText":"Haha, r u serious","text":"Haha, r u serious","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108582002","repostId":"2132438598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132438598","pubTimestamp":1620006729,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132438598?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 09:52","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Stock market peak? 'Easy money' has been made but room for more gains, strategists say","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132438598","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors need to be more focused on finding companies that can clear a higher bar on earnings: Nuve","content":"<p>Investors need to be more focused on finding companies that can clear a higher bar on earnings: Nuveen’s Malik</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854503dc809e899a55b7f361e8ef7951\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Room to climb? SEVEN SUMMIT TREKS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>Another week of booming U.S. economic data and strong corporate earnings, including blowouts by some of the world’s largest technology companies, is in the books, yet stocks still managed only a mixed performance, feeding fears that market participants have already priced in a post-pandemic economic boom.</p>\n<p>“The way the markets are behaving has to do with investor concerns over whether the easy money has been made,” Saira Malik, chief investment officer for Nuveen’s $420 billion global equity division, told MarketWatch in an interview.</p>\n<p>Those concerns aren’t necessarily misplaced. “A lot of easy money has been made,” Malik said, but there is still scope for gains. Investors, however, will need to be more selective, focusing on companies and sectors more likely to top rising earnings expectations, she said.</p>\n<p>The past week was hardly a disaster. The S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;both traded in record territory, but no breakouts were to be had. The Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;ended the week down 0.5%, while the S&amp;P 500 was virtually flat and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p>\n<p>Monthly performance was nothing to sneeze at, with the S&amp;P 500 rising 5.2% in April for its strongest month since Novembe. The Nasdaq’s 5.4% rise for the month was the strongest since December. The Dow rose 2.7% in April.</p>\n<p>The week ended with data that showed&nbsp;a 21.1% rise in personal income&nbsp;in March, fueled by fiscal stimulus checks, and accompanied by a 4.2% jump in personal spending. It followed an estimate of gross domestic product data that showed the U.S. economy&nbsp;grew at a rapid 6.4% annual pace&nbsp;in the first quarter.</p>\n<p>And the strong economic readings are almost certain to continue in the week ahead, with the Institute for Supply Management set to release its manufacturing index for April on Monday and its April services sector gauge on Wednesday. Friday will bring the May jobs report, with some economists seeing the potential for nonfarm payrolls to rise by more than 1 million.</p>\n<p>Questions about whether this is “as good as it gets” are understandable, given that booming data, particularly for purchasing managers indexes, often herald monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve that lead to a slowdown, said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial, which has $1.721 trillion in assets under management.</p>\n<p>But the Fed remains committed to&nbsp;allowing the economy to run hot, she noted.</p>\n<p>Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday reiterated that it remains too early to even consider talking about pulling back on the central bank’s extraordinary monetary stimulus measures, arguing that signs of inflationary pressures remain “transitory.” And while some employers are complaining about labor shortages, the jobs market is still far from tight as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic, he said.</p>\n<p>A Fed on hold bodes well for interest rate-sensitive stocks, particularly those tied to the consumer as the economy continues to reopen, Krosby told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>Travel and leisure stocks and some other consumer-oriented parts of the market “can still do extremely well,” she said. Add in President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending proposals and there’s room for industrials as well as clean energy names, which have already done well, to benefit, Krosby said.</p>\n<p>Malik is also upbeat on consumer-oriented companies, while industrials are set to benefit from continued economic growth and infrastructure spending. Financial firms should be poised to beat earnings expectations and should benefit from higher interest rates as inflation pressures push yields higher, she said.</p>\n<p>Malik is also bullish on small-cap stocks. While the small-cap Russell 2000&nbsp;has outperformed the large-cap Russell 1000&nbsp;by more than 2 percentage points in the year to date, the small-cap index still looks undervalued, she said.</p>\n<p>The 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the Russell 2000 stood at an 18-year low versus the Russell 1000 at the end of March, Malik noted, and record inflows into equity funds over the past five months have gone almost solely to large-cap stocks while small-caps have seen marginal outflows.</p>\n<p>Over the past month, small-caps have underperformed thanks to the rising number of COVID-19 cases around the globe, especially in Asia, and questions over whether the economic reopening has been priced in, she said. But small-caps should be able to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation.</p>\n<p>And then there’s politics. Stocks wobbled on April 22 after a news report highlighted Biden’s plan to propose a near-doubling of the capital-gains tax rate on investors making more than $1 million a year to 39.4%. But those losses&nbsp;were soon erased.</p>\n<p>Investors overall seem unfazed by Biden’s call for personal income tax hikes on the wealthy and a rise in the corporate tax rate. Stock market performance over Biden’s first 100 days in office, which ran through Thursday, was among the best of any presidency.</p>\n<p>In part, that’s because market participants expect pushback by some Senate Democrats, where the party has a razor-thin majority, to water down the proposals, analysts said. Also, the economy-boosting spending proposals are also expected to provide a lift to the economy and earnings, particularly for companies that stand to benefit from infrastructure spending and other programs.</p>\n<p>But tax hikes and the prospect of increased regulatory scrutiny will add to a more selective environment more favorable to stock- and sector-picking, analysts said.</p>\n<p>Those factors and the fading of other “systemic tailwinds,” such as falling interest rates will contribute to a transition away from a backdrop that saw “everything being favorable from a Wall Street perspective” to an environment with more differentiation, said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, in an interview.</p>\n<p>The market, meanwhile, could be due for a pullback, analysts said.</p>\n<p>Given the scope of gains, it wouldn’t be a shock to see investors get spooked by any near-term, negative surprises on the tax front or talk around when the Fed will begin to taper its bond purchases, Krosby said, but added that at this point “all pullbacks are healthy.”</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock market peak? 'Easy money' has been made but room for more gains, strategists say</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock market peak? 'Easy money' has been made but room for more gains, strategists say\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 09:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-peak-easy-money-has-been-made-but-room-for-more-gains-strategists-say-11619835288?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors need to be more focused on finding companies that can clear a higher bar on earnings: Nuveen’s Malik\nRoom to climb? SEVEN SUMMIT TREKS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nAnother week of booming U.S. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-peak-easy-money-has-been-made-but-room-for-more-gains-strategists-say-11619835288?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-peak-easy-money-has-been-made-but-room-for-more-gains-strategists-say-11619835288?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2132438598","content_text":"Investors need to be more focused on finding companies that can clear a higher bar on earnings: Nuveen’s Malik\nRoom to climb? SEVEN SUMMIT TREKS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES\nAnother week of booming U.S. economic data and strong corporate earnings, including blowouts by some of the world’s largest technology companies, is in the books, yet stocks still managed only a mixed performance, feeding fears that market participants have already priced in a post-pandemic economic boom.\n“The way the markets are behaving has to do with investor concerns over whether the easy money has been made,” Saira Malik, chief investment officer for Nuveen’s $420 billion global equity division, told MarketWatch in an interview.\nThose concerns aren’t necessarily misplaced. “A lot of easy money has been made,” Malik said, but there is still scope for gains. Investors, however, will need to be more selective, focusing on companies and sectors more likely to top rising earnings expectations, she said.\nThe past week was hardly a disaster. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite both traded in record territory, but no breakouts were to be had. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week down 0.5%, while the S&P 500 was virtually flat and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.\nMonthly performance was nothing to sneeze at, with the S&P 500 rising 5.2% in April for its strongest month since Novembe. The Nasdaq’s 5.4% rise for the month was the strongest since December. The Dow rose 2.7% in April.\nThe week ended with data that showed a 21.1% rise in personal income in March, fueled by fiscal stimulus checks, and accompanied by a 4.2% jump in personal spending. It followed an estimate of gross domestic product data that showed the U.S. economy grew at a rapid 6.4% annual pace in the first quarter.\nAnd the strong economic readings are almost certain to continue in the week ahead, with the Institute for Supply Management set to release its manufacturing index for April on Monday and its April services sector gauge on Wednesday. Friday will bring the May jobs report, with some economists seeing the potential for nonfarm payrolls to rise by more than 1 million.\nQuestions about whether this is “as good as it gets” are understandable, given that booming data, particularly for purchasing managers indexes, often herald monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve that lead to a slowdown, said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial, which has $1.721 trillion in assets under management.\nBut the Fed remains committed to allowing the economy to run hot, she noted.\nChairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday reiterated that it remains too early to even consider talking about pulling back on the central bank’s extraordinary monetary stimulus measures, arguing that signs of inflationary pressures remain “transitory.” And while some employers are complaining about labor shortages, the jobs market is still far from tight as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic, he said.\nA Fed on hold bodes well for interest rate-sensitive stocks, particularly those tied to the consumer as the economy continues to reopen, Krosby told MarketWatch.\nTravel and leisure stocks and some other consumer-oriented parts of the market “can still do extremely well,” she said. Add in President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending proposals and there’s room for industrials as well as clean energy names, which have already done well, to benefit, Krosby said.\nMalik is also upbeat on consumer-oriented companies, while industrials are set to benefit from continued economic growth and infrastructure spending. Financial firms should be poised to beat earnings expectations and should benefit from higher interest rates as inflation pressures push yields higher, she said.\nMalik is also bullish on small-cap stocks. While the small-cap Russell 2000 has outperformed the large-cap Russell 1000 by more than 2 percentage points in the year to date, the small-cap index still looks undervalued, she said.\nThe 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the Russell 2000 stood at an 18-year low versus the Russell 1000 at the end of March, Malik noted, and record inflows into equity funds over the past five months have gone almost solely to large-cap stocks while small-caps have seen marginal outflows.\nOver the past month, small-caps have underperformed thanks to the rising number of COVID-19 cases around the globe, especially in Asia, and questions over whether the economic reopening has been priced in, she said. But small-caps should be able to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation.\nAnd then there’s politics. Stocks wobbled on April 22 after a news report highlighted Biden’s plan to propose a near-doubling of the capital-gains tax rate on investors making more than $1 million a year to 39.4%. But those losses were soon erased.\nInvestors overall seem unfazed by Biden’s call for personal income tax hikes on the wealthy and a rise in the corporate tax rate. Stock market performance over Biden’s first 100 days in office, which ran through Thursday, was among the best of any presidency.\nIn part, that’s because market participants expect pushback by some Senate Democrats, where the party has a razor-thin majority, to water down the proposals, analysts said. Also, the economy-boosting spending proposals are also expected to provide a lift to the economy and earnings, particularly for companies that stand to benefit from infrastructure spending and other programs.\nBut tax hikes and the prospect of increased regulatory scrutiny will add to a more selective environment more favorable to stock- and sector-picking, analysts said.\nThose factors and the fading of other “systemic tailwinds,” such as falling interest rates will contribute to a transition away from a backdrop that saw “everything being favorable from a Wall Street perspective” to an environment with more differentiation, said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, in an interview.\nThe market, meanwhile, could be due for a pullback, analysts said.\nGiven the scope of gains, it wouldn’t be a shock to see investors get spooked by any near-term, negative surprises on the tax front or talk around when the Fed will begin to taper its bond purchases, Krosby said, but added that at this point “all pullbacks are healthy.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387165776,"gmtCreate":1613728681095,"gmtModify":1704884224987,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571463119794412","authorIdStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>yolo..","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>yolo..","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$yolo..","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88c1f92619c2f78d1764b9aa8a46ef4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/387165776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336307094,"gmtCreate":1610022499618,"gmtModify":1704981572071,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571463119794412","authorIdStr":"3571463119794412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>oh no.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>oh no.","text":"$Pfizer(PFE)$oh no.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336307094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}