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追高风

追高风

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2021-08-13

Good

开盘：恒指低开0.84%，李宁绩后开涨超4%

2021-07-21

Yes la

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-19

?

中金海外：美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长

2021-07-13

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$yo....

2021-07-13

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-07-13

Okay

为了芯片！刚刚，1.7万亿美团也出手了！

2021-07-02

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-07-01

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-27

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$hold

2021-06-26

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-20

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-17

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-15

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-14

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-13

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up

2021-06-12

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$up

2021-06-03

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$up please

2021-06-02

Yes

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-01

$SINGAPORE POST LIMITED(S08.SI)$huat ah

2021-05-28

$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06913\">华南职业教育</a>跌2.17%。</p>\n<p>港股碳中和概念股走强，$中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600811\">东方集团</a>(00581)$涨超13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00257\">光大环境</a>涨4.24%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00750\">水发兴业能源</a>涨1.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06865\">福莱特玻璃</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00868\">信义玻璃</a>涨超0.85%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>称因资源供应短缺看好锂行业板块行情。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">李宁</a>涨超4%，上半年净利润增长187%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>跌3.2%，Q2因快手市值调整造成公允价值损失31亿元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01415\">高伟电子</a>跌7.33%，上半年收益同比减少约3.2%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">理想汽车-W</a>港股上市次日跌0.85%，报116港元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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}\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：恒指低开0.84%，李宁绩后开涨超4%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-13 09:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>8月13日，恒生指数开盘下跌221.63点，跌幅0.84%，报26296.19点；国企指数开盘下跌90.68点，跌幅0.96%，报9374.78点；红筹指数开盘下跌10.27点，跌幅0.27%，报3818.03点。</p>\n<p>恒生科技指数跌1.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00780\">同程艺龙</a>跌2.69%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">阿里健康</a>跌2.46%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>跌2.24%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>跌近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">京东健康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>跌约1.7%。</p>\n<p>港股教育股下挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00667\">中国东方教育</a>跌超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">新东方-S</a>跌近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01773\">天立教育</a>跌2.65%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06913\">华南职业教育</a>跌2.17%。</p>\n<p>港股碳中和概念股走强，$中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600811\">东方集团</a>(00581)$涨超13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00257\">光大环境</a>涨4.24%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00750\">水发兴业能源</a>涨1.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06865\">福莱特玻璃</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00868\">信义玻璃</a>涨超0.85%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>称因资源供应短缺看好锂行业板块行情。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">李宁</a>涨超4%，上半年净利润增长187%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>跌3.2%，Q2因快手市值调整造成公允价值损失31亿元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01415\">高伟电子</a>跌7.33%，上半年收益同比减少约3.2%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">理想汽车-W</a>港股上市次日跌0.85%，报116港元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF","02331":"李宁","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196719671","content_text":"8月13日，恒生指数开盘下跌221.63点，跌幅0.84%，报26296.19点；国企指数开盘下跌90.68点，跌幅0.96%，报9374.78点；红筹指数开盘下跌10.27点，跌幅0.27%，报3818.03点。\n恒生科技指数跌1.26%，同程艺龙跌2.69%，阿里健康跌2.46%，腾讯控股跌2.24%，美团-W跌近2%，阿里巴巴-SW与京东健康、网易-S跌约1.7%。\n港股教育股下挫，中国东方教育跌超8%，新东方-S跌近4%，天立教育跌2.65%，华南职业教育跌2.17%。\n港股碳中和概念股走强，$中国东方集团(00581)$涨超13%，光大环境涨4.24%，水发兴业能源涨1.7%，福莱特玻璃与信义玻璃涨超0.85%，国金证券称因资源供应短缺看好锂行业板块行情。\n李宁涨超4%，上半年净利润增长187%。\n百度集团-SW跌3.2%，Q2因快手市值调整造成公允价值损失31亿元。\n高伟电子跌7.33%，上半年收益同比减少约3.2%。\n理想汽车-W港股上市次日跌0.85%，报116港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178260776,"gmtCreate":1626823962995,"gmtModify":1703765755507,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes la","listText":"Yes la","text":"Yes la","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178260776","repostId":"1193178615","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173899862,"gmtCreate":1626651474656,"gmtModify":1703762587598,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173899862","repostId":"1151231853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151231853","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1626604009,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151231853?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-18 18:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中金海外：美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151231853","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角","content":"<p><b>摘要</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。<b>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。</b></p>\n<p>整体情况：二季度增长进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。</p>\n<p>参考Factset一致预期，<b>标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。</b>板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先</b>，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。</p>\n<p>关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。</b>因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲</p>\n<p>整体看，二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修，不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。<b>往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。</b></p>\n<p><b>本周焦点：即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何？</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。</p>\n<p>我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀&nbsp;vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到，市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格（例如二手车同比大涨45%，如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平）让市场认为是无法持续的，但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断（《美联储依然不急于退出》），这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。</p>\n<p><i>扣除掉二手车价格后，6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不过，抛开短期一些情绪上的变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心，<b>更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来，美股估值就基本持平，而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量</b>。因此，<b>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观</b>。</p>\n<p>实际上，一季度业绩大超预期（同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%），推动业绩持续上修（《当前美股盈利的八个特征》），当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%，2021年为11%，<b>在这样一个强劲增长下，假设其他条件不变，如果切换到2022年盈利，那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平，进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。</b></p>\n<p><i>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>下半年如果切换到2022年盈利（浅蓝色），那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平（深蓝色）</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%，市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>一、整体情况：二季度进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先</b></p>\n<p>7月中旬开始，美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望：从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析，我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复，<b>美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点</b>。具体来看，参考Factset一致预期，<b>标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。</b></p>\n<p><i>目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%，纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>除净利润外，标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升，纳斯达克略有下滑，但仍处高位</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长</b>；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。<b>从改善幅度来看，相比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显</b>，而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。</p>\n<p><i>耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显，但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>对比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大，零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>二季度以来，能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大，银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</b></p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解</b>。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看，美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平，尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%，距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。</p>\n<p>分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），<b>当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，</b>特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现，从截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面，那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快，例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业；相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。</p>\n<p><i>美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>&nbsp;尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>三、前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲</b></p>\n<p>整体来看，二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修，目前，市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%，2022年EPS同比增长10.9%；纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%，2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调 vs.下调分析师数）<b>二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。</b></p>\n<p>往前看，<b>虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</b>。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%，这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。</p>\n<p><i>二季度以来，盈利调整情绪快速上修，但5月末逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>市场动态：6月通胀超预期上行，零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲；美债利率再创新低多头增加，美元空头大降</b></p>\n<p><b>►资产表现：债&gt;股&gt;大宗；利率再创新低，周期跑输</b></p>\n<p>过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。<b>在经历了超预期的6月通胀</b>（《大超预期的通胀&nbsp;vs.相对淡定的市场》）、<b>依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词</b>（《美联储依然不急于退出》）、<b>超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后，美股市场整体小幅收跌，金融周期跑输</b>，同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%，实际利率回落，但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看，美元计价下，债&gt;股&gt;大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美元计价下，债&gt;股&gt;大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，公用事业、家庭用品领涨；能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps，其中实际利率回落11bps，通胀预期上升4bps</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输，疫情受损少板块相对跑赢</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►情绪仓位：Put/call比例抬升，美元空头大幅减少</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面，美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升；伴随美债利率的进一步回落，10年美债多头仓位大幅增加，2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。</p>\n<p><i>CBOE美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，欧美股市RSI点位均回落，日本及新兴抬升；布油回落</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美元指数多头仓位继续增加，空头仓位大幅减少，净多头大幅抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>►资金流向：货基转为流出，股市加速流入。</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币基金大幅流出；分市场看，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币市场基金转为大幅流出</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►基本面与政策：6月通胀再超预期，零售强势增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>6月美国通胀超预期上行，二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。</b>6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%，均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中，二手车价格环比跳升10.5%，贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一，缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外，机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显，例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。</p>\n<p><b>6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%</b>，高于预期的-0.3%和前值（-1.7%）。分项看，<b>汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累</b>，但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消（7月80.8，低于前值85.5并不及预期（86.5）。与此同时，上周首申人数36.0万人，低于前值（38.6万人）但不及预期的35.0万人。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周经济数据总结</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月CPI再超预期，同比5.4%环比0.9%，二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位，超8000亿美元</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>&nbsp;美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元，较上周抬升明显</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►市场估值：估值略有回落。</b></p>\n<p>伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落，当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长（6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6）和流动性（10年美债利率1.36%）能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落，但处于历史相对高位。</p>\n<p><i>当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍，超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金海外：美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金海外：美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-18 18:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>摘要</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。<b>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。</b></p>\n<p>整体情况：二季度增长进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。</p>\n<p>参考Factset一致预期，<b>标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。</b>板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先</b>，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。</p>\n<p>关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。</b>因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲</p>\n<p>整体看，二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修，不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。<b>往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。</b></p>\n<p><b>本周焦点：即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何？</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。</p>\n<p>我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀&nbsp;vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到，市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格（例如二手车同比大涨45%，如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平）让市场认为是无法持续的，但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断（《美联储依然不急于退出》），这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。</p>\n<p><i>扣除掉二手车价格后，6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不过，抛开短期一些情绪上的变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心，<b>更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来，美股估值就基本持平，而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量</b>。因此，<b>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观</b>。</p>\n<p>实际上，一季度业绩大超预期（同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%），推动业绩持续上修（《当前美股盈利的八个特征》），当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%，2021年为11%，<b>在这样一个强劲增长下，假设其他条件不变，如果切换到2022年盈利，那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平，进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。</b></p>\n<p><i>从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>下半年如果切换到2022年盈利（浅蓝色），那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平（深蓝色）</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%，市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>一、整体情况：二季度进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先</b></p>\n<p>7月中旬开始，美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望：从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析，我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复，<b>美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点</b>。具体来看，参考Factset一致预期，<b>标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。</b></p>\n<p><i>目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%，纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>除净利润外，标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升，纳斯达克略有下滑，但仍处高位</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长</b>；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。<b>从改善幅度来看，相比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显</b>，而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。</p>\n<p><i>耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显，但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>对比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大，零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>二季度以来，能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大，银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</b></p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解</b>。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看，美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平，尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%，距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。</p>\n<p>分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），<b>当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，</b>特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现，从截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面，那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快，例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业；相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。</p>\n<p><i>美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>&nbsp;尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>三、前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲</b></p>\n<p>整体来看，二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修，目前，市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%，2022年EPS同比增长10.9%；纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%，2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调 vs.下调分析师数）<b>二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。</b></p>\n<p>往前看，<b>虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</b>。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%，这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。</p>\n<p><i>二季度以来，盈利调整情绪快速上修，但5月末逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>市场动态：6月通胀超预期上行，零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲；美债利率再创新低多头增加，美元空头大降</b></p>\n<p><b>►资产表现：债&gt;股&gt;大宗；利率再创新低，周期跑输</b></p>\n<p>过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。<b>在经历了超预期的6月通胀</b>（《大超预期的通胀&nbsp;vs.相对淡定的市场》）、<b>依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词</b>（《美联储依然不急于退出》）、<b>超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后，美股市场整体小幅收跌，金融周期跑输</b>，同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%，实际利率回落，但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看，美元计价下，债&gt;股&gt;大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美元计价下，债&gt;股&gt;大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，公用事业、家庭用品领涨；能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps，其中实际利率回落11bps，通胀预期上升4bps</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输，疫情受损少板块相对跑赢</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►情绪仓位：Put/call比例抬升，美元空头大幅减少</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面，美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升；伴随美债利率的进一步回落，10年美债多头仓位大幅增加，2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。</p>\n<p><i>CBOE美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，欧美股市RSI点位均回落，日本及新兴抬升；布油回落</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美元指数多头仓位继续增加，空头仓位大幅减少，净多头大幅抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>►资金流向：货基转为流出，股市加速流入。</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币基金大幅流出；分市场看，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币市场基金转为大幅流出</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►基本面与政策：6月通胀再超预期，零售强势增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>6月美国通胀超预期上行，二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。</b>6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%，均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中，二手车价格环比跳升10.5%，贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一，缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外，机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显，例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。</p>\n<p><b>6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%</b>，高于预期的-0.3%和前值（-1.7%）。分项看，<b>汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累</b>，但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消（7月80.8，低于前值85.5并不及预期（86.5）。与此同时，上周首申人数36.0万人，低于前值（38.6万人）但不及预期的35.0万人。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周经济数据总结</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月CPI再超预期，同比5.4%环比0.9%，二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周，美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位，超8000亿美元</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>&nbsp;美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元，较上周抬升明显</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►市场估值：估值略有回落。</b></p>\n<p>伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落，当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长（6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6）和流动性（10年美债利率1.36%）能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落，但处于历史相对高位。</p>\n<p><i>当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍，超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151231853","content_text":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n整体情况：二季度增长进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。\n参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。\n关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体看，二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修，不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。\n本周焦点：即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何？\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。\n我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到，市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格（例如二手车同比大涨45%，如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平）让市场认为是无法持续的，但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断（《美联储依然不急于退出》），这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。\n扣除掉二手车价格后，6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平\n\n不过，抛开短期一些情绪上的变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心，更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来，美股估值就基本持平，而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量。因此，从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n实际上，一季度业绩大超预期（同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%），推动业绩持续上修（《当前美股盈利的八个特征》），当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%，2021年为11%，在这样一个强劲增长下，假设其他条件不变，如果切换到2022年盈利，那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平，进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。\n从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观\n\n美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平\n\n下半年如果切换到2022年盈利（浅蓝色），那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平（深蓝色）\n\n标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%，市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%\n\n一、整体情况：二季度进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先\n7月中旬开始，美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望：从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析，我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复，美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点。具体来看，参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。\n目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%，纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%\n\n除净利润外，标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升，纳斯达克略有下滑，但仍处高位\n\n板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。从改善幅度来看，相比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显，而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。\n耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显，但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后\n\n这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致\n\n对比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大，零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑\n\n二季度以来，能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大，银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著\n\n二、关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看，美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平，尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%，距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。\n分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现，从截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面，那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快，例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业；相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。\n美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平\n\n 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%\n\n汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低\n\n特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高\n\n截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面\n\n三、前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体来看，二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修，目前，市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%，2022年EPS同比增长10.9%；纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%，2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调 vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。\n往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%，这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。\n二季度以来，盈利调整情绪快速上修，但5月末逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去\n\n我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放\n\n市场动态：6月通胀超预期上行，零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲；美债利率再创新低多头增加，美元空头大降\n►资产表现：债>股>大宗；利率再创新低，周期跑输\n过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。在经历了超预期的6月通胀（《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》）、依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词（《美联储依然不急于退出》）、超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后，美股市场整体小幅收跌，金融周期跑输，同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%，实际利率回落，但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。\n过去一周，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌\n\n过去一周，公用事业、家庭用品领涨；能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌\n\n过去一周，10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps，其中实际利率回落11bps，通胀预期上升4bps\n\n过去一周，疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输，疫情受损少板块相对跑赢\n\n►情绪仓位：Put/call比例抬升，美元空头大幅减少\n过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面，美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升；伴随美债利率的进一步回落，10年美债多头仓位大幅增加，2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。\nCBOE美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差\n\n过去一周，欧美股市RSI点位均回落，日本及新兴抬升；布油回落\n\n过去一周，美元指数多头仓位继续增加，空头仓位大幅减少，净多头大幅抬升\n\n►资金流向：货基转为流出，股市加速流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币基金大幅流出；分市场看，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币市场基金转为大幅流出\n\n过去一周，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入\n\n►基本面与政策：6月通胀再超预期，零售强势增长。\n6月美国通胀超预期上行，二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%，均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中，二手车价格环比跳升10.5%，贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一，缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外，机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显，例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。\n6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%和前值（-1.7%）。分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累，但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消（7月80.8，低于前值85.5并不及预期（86.5）。与此同时，上周首申人数36.0万人，低于前值（38.6万人）但不及预期的35.0万人。\n过去一周经济数据总结\n\n美国6月CPI再超预期，同比5.4%环比0.9%，二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献\n\n美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%\n\n分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升\n\n过去一周，美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位，超8000亿美元\n\n 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元，较上周抬升明显\n\n►市场估值：估值略有回落。\n伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落，当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长（6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6）和流动性（10年美债利率1.36%）能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落，但处于历史相对高位。\n当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍，超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差\n\n当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142518512,"gmtCreate":1626160771436,"gmtModify":1703754543706,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>yo....","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>yo....","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$yo....","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2001bc80be5cf8e5f21cb04bd375255b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142518512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142614762,"gmtCreate":1626145780256,"gmtModify":1703754264006,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>up","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00338dc69005fe8ac6362b1b53728083","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142614762","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142132694,"gmtCreate":1626135818118,"gmtModify":1703753957542,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142132694","repostId":"1153344848","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153344848","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b66b3e97274759989352a7b9f80611"},"pubTimestamp":1626135503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153344848?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 08:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"为了芯片！刚刚，1.7万亿美团也出手了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153344848","media":"中国基金报","summary":"半导体板块已成为今年最火爆的概念，A股来看，半导体指数自3月底以来，便暴涨近57%，不少个股沾上“半导体”概念都大涨。\n\n最新消息，王兴也出手了！美团旗下及关联公司双双入股半导体公司！\n王兴出手\n投资","content":"<div>\n<p>半导体板块已成为今年最火爆的概念，A股来看，半导体指数自3月底以来，便暴涨近57%，不少个股沾上“半导体”概念都大涨。\n\n最新消息，王兴也出手了！美团旗下及关联公司双双入股半导体公司！\n王兴出手\n投资半导体企业\n天眼查显示，近日，上海智砹芯半导体科技有限公司进行了B轮融资，美团关联公司酷讯科技、美团产业基金美团龙珠均在投资方上出现。\n此外，投资方还有旺泰恒辉投资基金、天创资本、耀途资本GGV纪源...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为了芯片！刚刚，1.7万亿美团也出手了！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为了芯片！刚刚，1.7万亿美团也出手了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-07-13 08:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>中国基金报</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>半导体板块已成为今年最火爆的概念，A股来看，半导体指数自3月底以来，便暴涨近57%，不少个股沾上“半导体”概念都大涨。\n\n最新消息，王兴也出手了！美团旗下及关联公司双双入股半导体公司！\n王兴出手\n投资半导体企业\n天眼查显示，近日，上海智砹芯半导体科技有限公司进行了B轮融资，美团关联公司酷讯科技、美团产业基金美团龙珠均在投资方上出现。\n此外，投资方还有旺泰恒辉投资基金、天创资本、耀途资本GGV纪源...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1238455e09ac8d1135014cb37eb0f4d","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03690":"美团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153344848","content_text":"半导体板块已成为今年最火爆的概念，A股来看，半导体指数自3月底以来，便暴涨近57%，不少个股沾上“半导体”概念都大涨。\n\n最新消息，王兴也出手了！美团旗下及关联公司双双入股半导体公司！\n王兴出手\n投资半导体企业\n天眼查显示，近日，上海智砹芯半导体科技有限公司进行了B轮融资，美团关联公司酷讯科技、美团产业基金美团龙珠均在投资方上出现。\n此外，投资方还有旺泰恒辉投资基金、天创资本、耀途资本GGV纪源资本、冯源资本。\n\n酷讯科技、美团龙珠均为美团旗下或者关联企业。北京酷讯科技有限公司由Xigua Limited全资持股，美团联合创始人穆荣均任执行董事。\n同时，上海智砹芯半导体科技发生工商变更，新增美团关联公司北京酷讯科技有限公司等为股东，同时公司注册资本由约1.75亿人民币增至约2.05亿人民币。\n\n资料显示，爱芯科技致力于高性能、低功耗人工智能处理器芯片研发，基于算法、芯片、产品的垂直整合，为合作伙伴提供全栈式解决方案，帮助客户实现最新技术快速落地。爱芯自主研发面向推理加速的神经网络处理器IP，集强大算力与超低功耗于一体，可支持物体检测、人脸识别等多种视觉任务开发，广泛应用于智慧城市，智慧零售、智能社区、智能家居、物联网设备等多个领域。\n此前投出喜茶、理想等爆款项目\n又完成了50亿元第二期基金募资\n据悉，目前，龙珠投资、美团战投以及王兴的个人投资，已经成为美团投资的“三驾马车”。此外，王兴还通过“上海汉创投资管理有限公司”和源码资本两条路径，成为辰海资本一家投资主体的最终受益人。从收益的角度看，投资业务也能赋能整个美团生态。\n其中，本次出现在爱芯科技的龙珠投资，资料显示，龙珠是美团首次发起设立美团产业基金。 美团产业基金的另一大特色是设立专业的战略顾问团队和投后管理，由王兴带队，同时包括王慧文等美团的核心管理团队。\n首期基金于 2018 年募集 20 亿元，出资人有美团、腾讯、招商资本局母基金等。\n据悉，首期基金将重点投资大消费领域C轮以前的项目投资，投资方向包括to B及to C，具体包括餐饮、零售、及酒店旅游、休闲娱乐等本地生活服务领域，单个项目的投资金额会在3000万人民币到1亿人民币之间。\n据悉，首期基金，美团龙珠资本与高瓴资本联合领投蜜雪冰城；独家投资喜茶的 B 轮融资；参与了理想汽车的 C 轮融资。现在理想汽车已经美股上市，市值 238 亿美元；蜜雪冰城也被传将于今年登陆 A 股，目前估值超 200 亿元；据多名投资人透露，目前还没有明确上市计划的喜茶，估值已达到 330 亿元。新茶饮品牌古茗奶茶，美团龙珠资本也是最大外部投资人。\n除了上述项目之外，美团龙珠资本还投资了谊品生鲜、Swiggy（印度外卖平台）、乐禾食品和幸福西饼等品牌。\n\n第二期基金近50亿元的融资在3月份举行，基石投资者中包括美团和腾讯。在完成第二期募资的同时，美团龙珠投资委员会迎来一位新的合伙人于红，成为美团龙珠投资委员会的第四位成员。\n于红先后任职于华兴资本、 GGV 纪源资本，其领域偏向科技互联网行业。在纪源资本任执行董事期间，她的投资成果包括作业帮、Musical.ly 和火花思维。\n据了解，第二期的 50 亿元除了用于继续深耕大消费的同时，将往物流等领域拓展。此前，外界曾将美团龙珠资本称为 “美团战投二部”，但在增加新的投资方向后，二者的区别会更明显。\n而王兴执掌的美团，最新市值为1.74万亿港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156277654,"gmtCreate":1625228094378,"gmtModify":1703738833041,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>up","text":"$Coinbase 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unsafe.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>RLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-26 16:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>RLX&nbsp;shares tumbled&nbsp;16% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37db14bc96219e50b02e0e2556e80f56\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"613\">There&nbsp;is&nbsp;a report on the health hazards of smoking in China was released, stating that \"there is sufficient evidence that e-cigarettes are unsafe.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RLX":"雾芯科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104707088","content_text":"RLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading.\nThere is a report on the health hazards of smoking in China was released, stating that \"there is sufficient evidence that e-cigarettes are unsafe.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107176011,"gmtCreate":1620458476833,"gmtModify":1704344046547,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107176011","repostId":"1160802774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160802774","pubTimestamp":1620442206,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160802774?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 10:50","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160802774","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue Un","content":"<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-08 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160802774","content_text":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin ,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn cheers and jeers.Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge, tweeting back on April 1 that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin and Ethereum ,the two largest cryptos in the world.Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:1. Bitcoin: -2002. Dogecoin: +6003. FIELD: +4504. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term Dogecoin bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained about over 6% so far this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108582002,"gmtCreate":1620041595306,"gmtModify":1704337736252,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha, r u serious","listText":"Haha, r u serious","text":"Haha, r u serious","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108582002","repostId":"2132438598","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387165776,"gmtCreate":1613728681095,"gmtModify":1704884224987,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>yolo..","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>yolo..","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$yolo..","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88c1f92619c2f78d1764b9aa8a46ef4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/387165776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336307094,"gmtCreate":1610022499618,"gmtModify":1704981572071,"author":{"id":"3571463119794412","authorId":"3571463119794412","name":"追高风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa72a321bdf13eb9d23dc6dbab1ad618","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>oh no.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>oh no.","text":"$Pfizer(PFE)$oh no.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336307094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}