Liting personal page - To The Moon

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08-06

$QQQ 20240816 470.0 CALL$

07-25

$QQQ 20240725 459.0 CALL$

07-25

$QQQ 20240725 459.0 CALL$

07-19

$SPY 20240722 555.0 PUT$

07-19

Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins

Find out more here: Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins Join the Guessing Game , find high-yield Sharers! Win up to 50000 Tiger Coins.

Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins

06-28

$TSLA 20241220 250.0 CALL$

05-31

$SPY 20240603 527.0 PUT$

05-13

$BABA 20240524 80.0 CALL$

2021-05-21

Good

Roku Continues to Stream Profits for Loyal Investors

2021-05-20

[Speechless]

3 Stocks for the Next Bear Market

2021-05-20

[Smile]

3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today

2021-05-19

[Tongue]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-16

[Happy]

Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday

2021-05-16

[Miser]

2021-03-09

Tell me your opinion about this news...

ARK Innovation Rebounds As Cathie Wood Stands Firm on Tech Bets; Tesla Surges

2021-03-09

$$

Spotify Is Rocking And Rolling

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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CALL\">$QQQ 20240725 459.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$QQQ 20240725 459.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f560e97e3442a99d34af0c383b4254a","width":"927","height":"1599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331405794811960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329294786474040,"gmtCreate":1721400144142,"gmtModify":1721400151817,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20240722 555.0 PUT\">$SPY 20240722 555.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20240722 555.0 PUT\">$SPY 20240722 555.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$SPY 20240722 555.0 PUT$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329294786474040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329288554283304,"gmtCreate":1721398383959,"gmtModify":1721398858723,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"title":"Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins","htmlText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2024/trading-guess?inviteId=DJYVDOOA&amp;banner=0&amp;feature=Message&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=087b488194aa974bcb8fc84d7f73883b&amp;invite=EAMUJY&amp;lang=en_US\">Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins</a> Join the Guessing Game , find high-yield Sharers! Win up to 50000 Tiger Coins.","listText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2024/trading-guess?inviteId=DJYVDOOA&amp;banner=0&amp;feature=Message&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=087b488194aa974bcb8fc84d7f73883b&amp;invite=EAMUJY&amp;lang=en_US\">Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins</a> Join the Guessing Game , find high-yield Sharers! Win up to 50000 Tiger Coins.","text":"Find out more here: Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins Join the Guessing Game , find high-yield Sharers! Win up to 50000 Tiger Coins.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b7f90833b0728cadecb5cb81220f1d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329288554283304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":49,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321765898723472,"gmtCreate":1719586754193,"gmtModify":1719588604644,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20241220 250.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20241220 250.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20241220 250.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20241220 250.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$TSLA 20241220 250.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26c11b0eb80fe64566816011543d52a3","width":"927","height":"1599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321765898723472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311734642721080,"gmtCreate":1717132901737,"gmtModify":1717132904611,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20240603 527.0 PUT\">$SPY 20240603 527.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20240603 527.0 PUT\">$SPY 20240603 527.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$SPY 20240603 527.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e546d4bcba2e720c140ed5ef61e1466a","width":"927","height":"1598"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311734642721080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":82,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":305460418576696,"gmtCreate":1715609799509,"gmtModify":1716199371394,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/BABA 20240524 80.0 CALL\">$BABA 20240524 80.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/BABA 20240524 80.0 CALL\">$BABA 20240524 80.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$BABA 20240524 80.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d9fd3691128b89db2bc94e763f6d3bb1","width":"927","height":"1598"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/305460418576696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139877376,"gmtCreate":1621609576495,"gmtModify":1704360557325,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139877376","repostId":"1198772655","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198772655","pubTimestamp":1621609241,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198772655?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roku Continues to Stream Profits for Loyal Investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198772655","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"When the facts change as with SQ stock, you should revise your thesis\nThose who stuck with Roku (NAS","content":"<p>When the facts change as with SQ stock, you should revise your thesis</p>\n<p>Those who stuck with&nbsp;<b>Roku</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<b><u>ROKU</u></b>) stock two years ago received a big payout. I was a skeptic for a long time but that didn’t stop me from trading it bullishly. I could not see how it fit in the migration from traditional to streaming models.</p>\n<p>Regardless as to how, management proved me wrong. The fundamental metrics now are undeniable bullish.</p>\n<p>In the last four years, they quadrupled revenues. They now have more than $100 million of positive net income after years of losses. That point is important because the company is not young and ran red too long.</p>\n<p>But finally the media delivery environment swung their way. Last year, the swarm demand for streaming from the pandemic made for a perfect storm.</p>\n<p>From here, hopefully they can build on the momentum and follow the digitization trend deep. This is a big world so the potential is borderless to a degree. I still don’t quite get why I would need a Roku, so I am not their target audience. In our household we “cut the cord” a while back. But we use our phones and tablets to consume our media without Roku.</p>\n<p><b>ROKU Stock Is in Better Shape Now</b></p>\n<p>Recognizing the improvements is important because the long-term thesis changed for me. This is a streaming stock with no weak asterisks anymore.</p>\n<p>Being profitable does not mean that ROKU stock is now cheap. Experts could point to price-to-earnings ratio to call it expensive. They’d be wrong because for an aggressively growing company P/E is a bad metric. Companies cannot deliver impressive growth on a budget.</p>\n<p>The better gauge to use is the price-to-sales, and at 22 it is reasonable. This is in line with&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) and cheaper than&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<b><u>ZM</u></b>) to use two other growers. ROKU P/S is triple&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<b><u>NFLX</u></b>) and quadruple that of&nbsp;<b>Disney</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>DIS</u></b>). Nevertheless it is not a flagrant reason to sell it. The amount of hope that its investors have in it now is high. But it is not in the clouds so high to drive a crash.</p>\n<p>ROKU stock rallied 740% from the pandemic crash. Then it corrected 44% and now is somewhere in the middle. The altitude is a bit alarming still 90% above last summer’s breakout. This concern is more serious since the markets are also near all-time highs.</p>\n<p>Last week Federal Reserve “taper” fears resurfaced and could be a drag on the all equities. Regardless of how good this story is, it will need the markets to remain strong.</p>\n<p><b>There Is Risk Below</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf9b67c067cf68328fee1f460de2f1e\" tg-width=\"1543\" tg-height=\"826\"><span>Source: Charts by TradingView</span></p>\n<p>If the overall malaise continues, ROKU could fall 30% from here and not change a thing. First, there would be a strong effort to hold the $280 zone. If that fails it would then trigger the rest of the dip. There is a way to profit from this potential now using options. This is also a way to get bullish the stock but leave room for error.</p>\n<p>An investor can sell the January 2022 ROKU $220 put to be bullish the stock. This trade would not even need a rally to win. In fact, the stock can fall almost 40% and they can still break even. If the stock falls below $220 then they could own the shares there.</p>\n<p>Big moves in stocks usually come from dislocations between reality and expectations. I don’t think there is such a scenario here. It’s a momentum stock but not teetering on disaster. I would not go as far as calling it a bargain but value became less of a threat.</p>\n<p>Earlier I admitted that I was ignorant on one front but did not commit the mistake of shorting it. Back then I knew that my bearish bias was a mere opinion with low conviction. In fact&nbsp;I wrote about upside opportunities&nbsp;when I saw some coming.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roku Continues to Stream Profits for Loyal Investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoku Continues to Stream Profits for Loyal Investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/05/roku-stock-continues-to-stream-profits-for-loyal-investors/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>When the facts change as with SQ stock, you should revise your thesis\nThose who stuck with Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) stock two years ago received a big payout. I was a skeptic for a long time but that didn’t...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/05/roku-stock-continues-to-stream-profits-for-loyal-investors/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/05/roku-stock-continues-to-stream-profits-for-loyal-investors/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198772655","content_text":"When the facts change as with SQ stock, you should revise your thesis\nThose who stuck with Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) stock two years ago received a big payout. I was a skeptic for a long time but that didn’t stop me from trading it bullishly. I could not see how it fit in the migration from traditional to streaming models.\nRegardless as to how, management proved me wrong. The fundamental metrics now are undeniable bullish.\nIn the last four years, they quadrupled revenues. They now have more than $100 million of positive net income after years of losses. That point is important because the company is not young and ran red too long.\nBut finally the media delivery environment swung their way. Last year, the swarm demand for streaming from the pandemic made for a perfect storm.\nFrom here, hopefully they can build on the momentum and follow the digitization trend deep. This is a big world so the potential is borderless to a degree. I still don’t quite get why I would need a Roku, so I am not their target audience. In our household we “cut the cord” a while back. But we use our phones and tablets to consume our media without Roku.\nROKU Stock Is in Better Shape Now\nRecognizing the improvements is important because the long-term thesis changed for me. This is a streaming stock with no weak asterisks anymore.\nBeing profitable does not mean that ROKU stock is now cheap. Experts could point to price-to-earnings ratio to call it expensive. They’d be wrong because for an aggressively growing company P/E is a bad metric. Companies cannot deliver impressive growth on a budget.\nThe better gauge to use is the price-to-sales, and at 22 it is reasonable. This is in line with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and cheaper than Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) to use two other growers. ROKU P/S is triple Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and quadruple that of Disney (NYSE:DIS). Nevertheless it is not a flagrant reason to sell it. The amount of hope that its investors have in it now is high. But it is not in the clouds so high to drive a crash.\nROKU stock rallied 740% from the pandemic crash. Then it corrected 44% and now is somewhere in the middle. The altitude is a bit alarming still 90% above last summer’s breakout. This concern is more serious since the markets are also near all-time highs.\nLast week Federal Reserve “taper” fears resurfaced and could be a drag on the all equities. Regardless of how good this story is, it will need the markets to remain strong.\nThere Is Risk Below\nSource: Charts by TradingView\nIf the overall malaise continues, ROKU could fall 30% from here and not change a thing. First, there would be a strong effort to hold the $280 zone. If that fails it would then trigger the rest of the dip. There is a way to profit from this potential now using options. This is also a way to get bullish the stock but leave room for error.\nAn investor can sell the January 2022 ROKU $220 put to be bullish the stock. This trade would not even need a rally to win. In fact, the stock can fall almost 40% and they can still break even. If the stock falls below $220 then they could own the shares there.\nBig moves in stocks usually come from dislocations between reality and expectations. I don’t think there is such a scenario here. It’s a momentum stock but not teetering on disaster. I would not go as far as calling it a bargain but value became less of a threat.\nEarlier I admitted that I was ignorant on one front but did not commit the mistake of shorting it. Back then I knew that my bearish bias was a mere opinion with low conviction. In fact I wrote about upside opportunities when I saw some coming.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197879420,"gmtCreate":1621448629460,"gmtModify":1704357799918,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Speechless]&nbsp;","listText":"[Speechless]&nbsp;","text":"[Speechless]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197879420","repostId":"2136910021","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2136910021","pubTimestamp":1621437633,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2136910021?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks for the Next Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136910021","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A roaring bear market just might be your best chance to buy strong businesses at cheap prices.","content":"<p>Bear markets can be an incredible time to pick up stocks at a bargain. When panic grips Wall Street, even strong businesses with solid balance sheets and tremendous long-term prospects can get taken down with the overall trend. Still, the strongest companies are often the ones that come back the fastest once the bear market passes. That makes it important for you to have a plan in place in advance, so that you know where you want to hunt when deals are available.</p>\n<p>If you follow this strategy, know that you're in good company. Bargain hunting during a bear market is a strategy that Warren Buffett has used successfully throughout his investing career. Indeed, he profited handsomely during the financial crisis of 2008 by having both the cash and the wherewithal to buy strong companies while so many others were panicking. With that in mind, here are three stocks that are certainly worth considering for your potential buy list during the next bear market.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d281366568e2abc4b9b6f19f91018748\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: The Motley Fool.</span></p>\n<h2>1. Buffett's own bargain-hunting powerhouse</h2>\n<p>There's an old saying in business and investing that if you can't beat them, buy them. With that in mind, what better business to look to potentially buy at a bargain price than Buffett's own <b>Berkshire Hathaway </b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)? After all, there is nobody better at bargain hunting than Buffett, and he is likely training his successors at the company to be able to follow in those footsteps as well.</p>\n<p>Although Berkshire Hathaway's fundamental business and balance sheet are likely always going to be strong, there's a good chance that its stock might get knocked down in the next bear market. This is because mark-to-market accounting forces it to record earnings or losses based on the changes in value in its investment portfolio. As a result, if the stocks it owns drop in value, it may have to record an accounting loss, even if the underlying businesses it operates continue to generate cash.</p>\n<p>That could cause Berkshire Hathaway to fall during a general market panic, driven by investors and algorithms that don't look past the headline numbers and into the fundamental health of the company. If that happens, it could very well be the <i>perfect </i>company to buy during a bear market. After all, if it is sweeping up bargains with its cash pile while its own stock is down, then investors who buy its stock could benefit from a rebound when those mark-to-market losses reverse.</p>\n<h2>2. A tech titan whose products people pay a premium to own</h2>\n<p><b>Apple </b>(NASDAQ:AAPL) is well known for being able to charge premium prices for its hardware.&nbsp;That's wonderful news for shareholders in a strong economy, but it also means that consumers feeling the pinch may choose to hold off on upgrading during tougher economic times. That risk means that Apple could see its stock decline a bit more than otherwise might be expected during a bear market.</p>\n<p>Apple has a wonderfully strong balance sheet, with more between cash on hand and receivables than it owes in total debt. That means that it can withstand even a punishing recession and bear market and still have a very strong chance of emerging in good shape.</p>\n<p>The challenge with buying Apple's shares today is that it has a market capitalization over $2 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio above 28. As a result, it is quite possible that much of its future growth may already be priced into its shares.</p>\n<p>Apple is an incredibly solid company, and it's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> that might look mighty tempting at a cheaper valuation. It might take a pretty substantial bear market to get that opportunity. If the upside of a bear market is the chance to buy a great company at a decent price, then the potential longer-term gain just might be worth the short-term pain.</p>\n<h2>3. A Civil War-era infrastructure leader that's still relevant today</h2>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F627670%2Ftrain-on-a-bridge-gettyimages-512683154.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p><b>Union Pacific </b>(NYSE:UNP) was founded in 1862, as the U.S. Civil War was raging.&nbsp;It's a testament to just how critical railroad infrastructure was even back then that the legislation enabling its creation was signed into law as the country was tearing itself apart. That the company has survived over a century and a half showcases how relevant railroads remain today.</p>\n<p>After all, products still need to be transported from where they're made to where they're used, and railroads tend to be a fairly cost-effective way of doing just that. The continued demand for its services makes Union Pacific a company worth considering for a long-term investment. The challenge, though, is that since the value of its infrastructure is well known, thanks to the recent strong market, its shares are not exactly cheap. In fact, those shares trade at more than 23 times the company's anticipated earnings.</p>\n<p>At a price like that, it's hard to justify adding to an investment in Union Pacific, even though the business looks capable of remaining solid well into the future. Still, should a bear market come knocking and take the company's stock down, its long history and strong infrastructure role makes Union Pacific worth considering at a more reasonable price.</p>\n<h2>When a bear market comes roaring, bargains abound</h2>\n<p>It's easy to invest when stocks are rising strongly. When a bear market comes roaring and your investments start to tank, it's a lot harder to keep your head about you. Knowing in advance what strong companies you'd love to buy if their shares got cheaper during a market crash is a great way to keep your wits about you. It can help you take advantage of the bargains that only come around during a panic to help you potentially build some incredible long-term wealth.</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway, Apple, and Union Pacific all stand out as very strong companies that look capable of surviving the next bear market and emerging even stronger on the other side. If you keep an eye out for them to become bargain-priced, during the next bear market you just might find yourself with an opportunity to buy some great businesses at very reasonable prices.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks for the Next Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks for the Next Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/19/3-stocks-for-the-next-bear-market/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bear markets can be an incredible time to pick up stocks at a bargain. When panic grips Wall Street, even strong businesses with solid balance sheets and tremendous long-term prospects can get taken ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/19/3-stocks-for-the-next-bear-market/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","UNP":"联合太平洋","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/19/3-stocks-for-the-next-bear-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2136910021","content_text":"Bear markets can be an incredible time to pick up stocks at a bargain. When panic grips Wall Street, even strong businesses with solid balance sheets and tremendous long-term prospects can get taken down with the overall trend. Still, the strongest companies are often the ones that come back the fastest once the bear market passes. That makes it important for you to have a plan in place in advance, so that you know where you want to hunt when deals are available.\nIf you follow this strategy, know that you're in good company. Bargain hunting during a bear market is a strategy that Warren Buffett has used successfully throughout his investing career. Indeed, he profited handsomely during the financial crisis of 2008 by having both the cash and the wherewithal to buy strong companies while so many others were panicking. With that in mind, here are three stocks that are certainly worth considering for your potential buy list during the next bear market.\nImage source: The Motley Fool.\n1. Buffett's own bargain-hunting powerhouse\nThere's an old saying in business and investing that if you can't beat them, buy them. With that in mind, what better business to look to potentially buy at a bargain price than Buffett's own Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)? After all, there is nobody better at bargain hunting than Buffett, and he is likely training his successors at the company to be able to follow in those footsteps as well.\nAlthough Berkshire Hathaway's fundamental business and balance sheet are likely always going to be strong, there's a good chance that its stock might get knocked down in the next bear market. This is because mark-to-market accounting forces it to record earnings or losses based on the changes in value in its investment portfolio. As a result, if the stocks it owns drop in value, it may have to record an accounting loss, even if the underlying businesses it operates continue to generate cash.\nThat could cause Berkshire Hathaway to fall during a general market panic, driven by investors and algorithms that don't look past the headline numbers and into the fundamental health of the company. If that happens, it could very well be the perfect company to buy during a bear market. After all, if it is sweeping up bargains with its cash pile while its own stock is down, then investors who buy its stock could benefit from a rebound when those mark-to-market losses reverse.\n2. A tech titan whose products people pay a premium to own\nApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is well known for being able to charge premium prices for its hardware. That's wonderful news for shareholders in a strong economy, but it also means that consumers feeling the pinch may choose to hold off on upgrading during tougher economic times. That risk means that Apple could see its stock decline a bit more than otherwise might be expected during a bear market.\nApple has a wonderfully strong balance sheet, with more between cash on hand and receivables than it owes in total debt. That means that it can withstand even a punishing recession and bear market and still have a very strong chance of emerging in good shape.\nThe challenge with buying Apple's shares today is that it has a market capitalization over $2 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio above 28. As a result, it is quite possible that much of its future growth may already be priced into its shares.\nApple is an incredibly solid company, and it's one that might look mighty tempting at a cheaper valuation. It might take a pretty substantial bear market to get that opportunity. If the upside of a bear market is the chance to buy a great company at a decent price, then the potential longer-term gain just might be worth the short-term pain.\n3. A Civil War-era infrastructure leader that's still relevant today\nImage source: Getty Images.\nUnion Pacific (NYSE:UNP) was founded in 1862, as the U.S. Civil War was raging. It's a testament to just how critical railroad infrastructure was even back then that the legislation enabling its creation was signed into law as the country was tearing itself apart. That the company has survived over a century and a half showcases how relevant railroads remain today.\nAfter all, products still need to be transported from where they're made to where they're used, and railroads tend to be a fairly cost-effective way of doing just that. The continued demand for its services makes Union Pacific a company worth considering for a long-term investment. The challenge, though, is that since the value of its infrastructure is well known, thanks to the recent strong market, its shares are not exactly cheap. In fact, those shares trade at more than 23 times the company's anticipated earnings.\nAt a price like that, it's hard to justify adding to an investment in Union Pacific, even though the business looks capable of remaining solid well into the future. Still, should a bear market come knocking and take the company's stock down, its long history and strong infrastructure role makes Union Pacific worth considering at a more reasonable price.\nWhen a bear market comes roaring, bargains abound\nIt's easy to invest when stocks are rising strongly. When a bear market comes roaring and your investments start to tank, it's a lot harder to keep your head about you. Knowing in advance what strong companies you'd love to buy if their shares got cheaper during a market crash is a great way to keep your wits about you. It can help you take advantage of the bargains that only come around during a panic to help you potentially build some incredible long-term wealth.\nBerkshire Hathaway, Apple, and Union Pacific all stand out as very strong companies that look capable of surviving the next bear market and emerging even stronger on the other side. If you keep an eye out for them to become bargain-priced, during the next bear market you just might find yourself with an opportunity to buy some great businesses at very reasonable prices.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197879228,"gmtCreate":1621448594264,"gmtModify":1704357799592,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197879228","repostId":"1103552481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103552481","pubTimestamp":1621428667,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103552481?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 20:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103552481","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but inv","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.</p>\n<p>The minutes are due out at 2 p.m. today, and Fed watchers may face a greater challenge than usual in deciphering their significance:&nbsp; A lot has changed in the economy since the April 28-29 meeting. The ensuing weeks have brought a&nbsp;surprisingly weak jobs report&nbsp;and a&nbsp;stronger-than-expected consumer inflation report, for example.</p>\n<p>And unlike&nbsp;last month’s meeting, there wasn’t an attention-grabbing selloff in Treasuries to command officials’ attention. The steep climb in yields abated at the end of March, even as economic data showed and stronger price pressures in April.&nbsp;The 10-year yield has&nbsp;dropped to 1.64%&nbsp;from 1.74% on March 31.</p>\n<p>Yet the document may still provide some clues about the central bank’s views. And officials have provided more perspective on policy since the latest meeting as well. Notably, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida spoke at a conference on Monday and discussed some recent economic data points as well.</p>\n<p>Here’s what strategists expect out of the meeting today, and what Clarida said about the topics:</p>\n<p><b>“Attuned and Attentive” to “Transitory” Inflation?</b></p>\n<p>One popular line among Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has been the assurance that this spring is expected to bring a “transitory” rise in inflation, mostly related to the reopening of the U.S. economy after the pandemic brought a sharp deceleration in activity last year.</p>\n<p>Mizuho economists Steven Ricchiuto and Alex Pelle wrote in a May 18 note that they expect “several mentions of ‘transitory’ price pressures” in the minutes. They also highlighted that many of the steepest increases in consumer prices in April were in sectors where demand had been hit most by the pandemic, such as hotels and airfares. “So far [that] validates the Fed’s thinking,” they added.</p>\n<p>Yet at Monday’s conference, Clarida seemed to be repeating a different type of assurance about inflation:&nbsp; That the central bank would be “attuned and attentive” to any data showing higher price pressures.</p>\n<p>“In the CPI report, [reopening] did clearly put upward pressure on prices. Now our baseline view is that most of this is likely to be transitory, but we have to be attuned and attentive to the incoming data,” he said. “[The] key element of our mandate is price stability and an important component of price stability is well-anchored inflation expectations. If we were to see upward pressure on prices or inflation that threatened to put inflation expectations higher, I have no doubt we would use our tools to address that situation.”</p>\n<p><b>Taper Timeline</b></p>\n<p>Investors will also be looking to see if the central bank provides any additional guidance on when it might start paring back its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. Powell has said the Fed wants to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals of full employment and a long-term average of 2% inflation before it wants to pare down its purchases, but officials haven’t provided much additional guidance.</p>\n<p>Most on Wall Street expect the Fed to discuss longer-term plans to reduce, or taper, its purchases&nbsp;late this summer or during the fall. NatWest Markets said in a Monday note that it expects the Fed to start talking about tapering its purchases in September and actually start to reduce the pace of bond-buying next year.</p>\n<p>So any more detailed discussion in the latest meeting minutes could come as a surprise to investors and potentially matter for markets.</p>\n<p><b>Labor-Market Outlook</b></p>\n<p>One key factor that will determine the outlook for the Fed’s bond buying (and other accommodation) is the recovery in the labor market. And that remains up in the air, after the disappointing April jobs report.</p>\n<p>Still, there is a chance investors could find more context on one of their questions in the minutes:&nbsp; How much improvement will be enough for the Fed to start withdrawing accommodation? In other words, what does “substantial further progress” mean?</p>\n<p>Before the disappointing news on April’s labor market, most of Wall Street expected a strong month for jobs creation, another step toward the “string” of strong months of recovery that Powell had said was needed before the U.S. achieved “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goals. That may have prompted officials to discuss just how far along the recovery would need to go before the central bank could start stepping back.</p>\n<p>Clarida discussed the April employment report on Monday as well.</p>\n<p>“What the April employment report said to me is that the way we bring supply and demand into balance in the labor market, especially in the service sector, may take some time and may produce some upward pressure on prices as workers return to employment, so we have to be attuned and attentive to that data flow,” he said. “Per that April employment report, we have not made substantial further progress, but as the data comes in we as a committee will have to evaluate that, and ultimately make a judgment.”</p>\n<p>Ultimately, the importance of future labor-market data hints at the broader takeaway from the Fed’s meeting minutes:&nbsp; Coming months’ economic data may be the final arbiter of what the Fed does, and its plans to remove accommodation from markets and the economy. And the&nbsp;economic data has been so volatile&nbsp;during the reopening that the picture could change significantly by the time the Fed meets again in June.</p>\n<p>That means investors will have to hold tight for a while longer to get a sense of when the central bank plans to start stepping back.</p>\n<p>“We’re reluctant to call this an equilibrium of any sort – rather it’s much more likely to prove a temporary holding pattern as macro expectations are further refined,” wrote Ian Lyngen, strategist with BMO. “Clearly, we have more questions than answers.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 20:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-and-more-to-watch-for-in-todays-fed-minutes-release-51621421812?mod=hp_LEAD_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.\nThe minutes are due out at 2 p.m. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-and-more-to-watch-for-in-todays-fed-minutes-release-51621421812?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-and-more-to-watch-for-in-todays-fed-minutes-release-51621421812?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103552481","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.\nThe minutes are due out at 2 p.m. today, and Fed watchers may face a greater challenge than usual in deciphering their significance:  A lot has changed in the economy since the April 28-29 meeting. The ensuing weeks have brought a surprisingly weak jobs report and a stronger-than-expected consumer inflation report, for example.\nAnd unlike last month’s meeting, there wasn’t an attention-grabbing selloff in Treasuries to command officials’ attention. The steep climb in yields abated at the end of March, even as economic data showed and stronger price pressures in April. The 10-year yield has dropped to 1.64% from 1.74% on March 31.\nYet the document may still provide some clues about the central bank’s views. And officials have provided more perspective on policy since the latest meeting as well. Notably, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida spoke at a conference on Monday and discussed some recent economic data points as well.\nHere’s what strategists expect out of the meeting today, and what Clarida said about the topics:\n“Attuned and Attentive” to “Transitory” Inflation?\nOne popular line among Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has been the assurance that this spring is expected to bring a “transitory” rise in inflation, mostly related to the reopening of the U.S. economy after the pandemic brought a sharp deceleration in activity last year.\nMizuho economists Steven Ricchiuto and Alex Pelle wrote in a May 18 note that they expect “several mentions of ‘transitory’ price pressures” in the minutes. They also highlighted that many of the steepest increases in consumer prices in April were in sectors where demand had been hit most by the pandemic, such as hotels and airfares. “So far [that] validates the Fed’s thinking,” they added.\nYet at Monday’s conference, Clarida seemed to be repeating a different type of assurance about inflation:  That the central bank would be “attuned and attentive” to any data showing higher price pressures.\n“In the CPI report, [reopening] did clearly put upward pressure on prices. Now our baseline view is that most of this is likely to be transitory, but we have to be attuned and attentive to the incoming data,” he said. “[The] key element of our mandate is price stability and an important component of price stability is well-anchored inflation expectations. If we were to see upward pressure on prices or inflation that threatened to put inflation expectations higher, I have no doubt we would use our tools to address that situation.”\nTaper Timeline\nInvestors will also be looking to see if the central bank provides any additional guidance on when it might start paring back its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. Powell has said the Fed wants to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals of full employment and a long-term average of 2% inflation before it wants to pare down its purchases, but officials haven’t provided much additional guidance.\nMost on Wall Street expect the Fed to discuss longer-term plans to reduce, or taper, its purchases late this summer or during the fall. NatWest Markets said in a Monday note that it expects the Fed to start talking about tapering its purchases in September and actually start to reduce the pace of bond-buying next year.\nSo any more detailed discussion in the latest meeting minutes could come as a surprise to investors and potentially matter for markets.\nLabor-Market Outlook\nOne key factor that will determine the outlook for the Fed’s bond buying (and other accommodation) is the recovery in the labor market. And that remains up in the air, after the disappointing April jobs report.\nStill, there is a chance investors could find more context on one of their questions in the minutes:  How much improvement will be enough for the Fed to start withdrawing accommodation? In other words, what does “substantial further progress” mean?\nBefore the disappointing news on April’s labor market, most of Wall Street expected a strong month for jobs creation, another step toward the “string” of strong months of recovery that Powell had said was needed before the U.S. achieved “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goals. That may have prompted officials to discuss just how far along the recovery would need to go before the central bank could start stepping back.\nClarida discussed the April employment report on Monday as well.\n“What the April employment report said to me is that the way we bring supply and demand into balance in the labor market, especially in the service sector, may take some time and may produce some upward pressure on prices as workers return to employment, so we have to be attuned and attentive to that data flow,” he said. “Per that April employment report, we have not made substantial further progress, but as the data comes in we as a committee will have to evaluate that, and ultimately make a judgment.”\nUltimately, the importance of future labor-market data hints at the broader takeaway from the Fed’s meeting minutes:  Coming months’ economic data may be the final arbiter of what the Fed does, and its plans to remove accommodation from markets and the economy. And the economic data has been so volatile during the reopening that the picture could change significantly by the time the Fed meets again in June.\nThat means investors will have to hold tight for a while longer to get a sense of when the central bank plans to start stepping back.\n“We’re reluctant to call this an equilibrium of any sort – rather it’s much more likely to prove a temporary holding pattern as macro expectations are further refined,” wrote Ian Lyngen, strategist with BMO. “Clearly, we have more questions than answers.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194865118,"gmtCreate":1621354995234,"gmtModify":1704356372455,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Tongue]&nbsp;","listText":"[Tongue]&nbsp;","text":"[Tongue]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194865118","repostId":"2135161248","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196443256,"gmtCreate":1621101531175,"gmtModify":1704352893142,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196443256","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163454382","pubTimestamp":1621004581,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163454382?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163454382","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million. First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinat","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What happened</b></p>\n<p>A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p>\n<p><b>So what</b></p>\n<p>Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p>\n<p>First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p>\n<p>This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p>\n<p><b>Now what</b></p>\n<p>Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p>\n<p>Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-14 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163454382","content_text":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million\nFirst, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.\nThis should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.\nNow what\nLower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.\nVaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196443627,"gmtCreate":1621101502169,"gmtModify":1704352892819,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebdae15d593a5b004bcabfd1d0c3e267","width":"1125","height":"3068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196443627","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323042422,"gmtCreate":1615293519666,"gmtModify":1704780706243,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323042422","repostId":"1115541540","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115541540","pubTimestamp":1615290562,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115541540?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-09 19:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ARK Innovation Rebounds As Cathie Wood Stands Firm on Tech Bets; Tesla Surges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115541540","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Cathie Wood stood in to defend her ARK Innovation ETF late Monday as losses continue to hit the tech","content":"<p>Cathie Wood stood in to defend her ARK Innovation ETF late Monday as losses continue to hit the tech-focused fund amid a broader market rotation into value stocks.</p>\n<p>ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;(<b>ARKK</b>)&nbsp;shares rebounded sharply Tuesday star fund manager Cathie Wood stood firm in defense against the recent slump in her tech-focused holdings.</p>\n<p>Wood told CNBC late Monday that she was becoming \"more optimistic\" about her portfolios amid the ongoing tech sell-off, which has tipped the Nasdaq Composite into correction territory and hived nearly 30% from her flagship ARK Innovation fund since its February 12 closing peak.</p>\n<p>A 'broadening' of the current market rally, Wood argued, will give her both a chance to add to current positions on stocks such as Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>)&nbsp;and Roku&nbsp;(<b>ROKU</b>)&nbsp;at lower levels while simultaneously moving into so-called pure-play stocks whose growth trajectory is more in-line with the U.S. post-pandemic recovery.</p>\n<p>“The bull market was broadening out to incorporate value or more cyclical sectors and I thought that was going to be very good news for our strategies longer run,\" Wood said. \"The worst thing that could have happened to us what another tech and telecom bubble where the market narrowed so that only a few groups won.\"</p>\n<p>Ark Innovation ETF shares were marked 4.6% higher in pre-market trading Tuesday, indicating an opening bell price of $115.34 each, a move that would trim its month-to-date decline to around 25.5%.</p>\n<p>Tesla shares jumped 5.1% in pre-market trading to $591.52 each, while Bitcoin, another key holding in the ARK portfolio, was marked 4.7% higher at just over $54,000.00.</p>\n<p>Short interest in the fund, however, has accelerated amid the recent surge in U.S. Treasury bond yields and the corresponding pullback in tech stocks, particularly Tesla, which has lost nearly $300 billion in market value since its early January peak amid a near 30% decline in its share price.</p>\n<p>Data from S3 Partners indicates around $2.31 billion in currently being bet against the ARK Innovation ETF, a figure that represents around 19.76 million shares, or 10.8% of its outstanding float.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ARK Innovation Rebounds As Cathie Wood Stands Firm on Tech Bets; Tesla Surges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nARK Innovation Rebounds As Cathie Wood Stands Firm on Tech Bets; Tesla Surges\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-09 19:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ark-innovation-rebounds-as-cathie-wood-stands-firm-on-tech-bets><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood stood in to defend her ARK Innovation ETF late Monday as losses continue to hit the tech-focused fund amid a broader market rotation into value stocks.\nARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) shares ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ark-innovation-rebounds-as-cathie-wood-stands-firm-on-tech-bets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ark-innovation-rebounds-as-cathie-wood-stands-firm-on-tech-bets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115541540","content_text":"Cathie Wood stood in to defend her ARK Innovation ETF late Monday as losses continue to hit the tech-focused fund amid a broader market rotation into value stocks.\nARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) shares rebounded sharply Tuesday star fund manager Cathie Wood stood firm in defense against the recent slump in her tech-focused holdings.\nWood told CNBC late Monday that she was becoming \"more optimistic\" about her portfolios amid the ongoing tech sell-off, which has tipped the Nasdaq Composite into correction territory and hived nearly 30% from her flagship ARK Innovation fund since its February 12 closing peak.\nA 'broadening' of the current market rally, Wood argued, will give her both a chance to add to current positions on stocks such as Tesla (TSLA) and Roku (ROKU) at lower levels while simultaneously moving into so-called pure-play stocks whose growth trajectory is more in-line with the U.S. post-pandemic recovery.\n“The bull market was broadening out to incorporate value or more cyclical sectors and I thought that was going to be very good news for our strategies longer run,\" Wood said. \"The worst thing that could have happened to us what another tech and telecom bubble where the market narrowed so that only a few groups won.\"\nArk Innovation ETF shares were marked 4.6% higher in pre-market trading Tuesday, indicating an opening bell price of $115.34 each, a move that would trim its month-to-date decline to around 25.5%.\nTesla shares jumped 5.1% in pre-market trading to $591.52 each, while Bitcoin, another key holding in the ARK portfolio, was marked 4.7% higher at just over $54,000.00.\nShort interest in the fund, however, has accelerated amid the recent surge in U.S. Treasury bond yields and the corresponding pullback in tech stocks, particularly Tesla, which has lost nearly $300 billion in market value since its early January peak amid a near 30% decline in its share price.\nData from S3 Partners indicates around $2.31 billion in currently being bet against the ARK Innovation ETF, a figure that represents around 19.76 million shares, or 10.8% of its outstanding float.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323042345,"gmtCreate":1615293426687,"gmtModify":1704780705247,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$$","listText":"$$","text":"$$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323042345","repostId":"1123435119","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123435119","pubTimestamp":1615289149,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123435119?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-09 19:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Spotify Is Rocking And Rolling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123435119","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe February 2021 Stream On event explains that Spotify’s future is exciting!\nLike Amazon, ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The February 2021 Stream On event explains that Spotify’s future is exciting!</li>\n <li>Like Amazon, Spotify focuses on growth and FCF as opposed to reported accrual earnings.</li>\n <li>There are now over 60,000 tracks delivered to Spotify every day!</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>My thesis is that Spotify (SPOT) is well-positioned to continue being the leader in audio as the world changes. Co-founder and CEO Daniel Ek is special. Following former CFO Barry McCarthy, current CFO Paul Vogel has big shoes to fill and I think he is up to the challenge.</p>\n<p>Spotify reports their financials in euros. At the time of this writing, $1 equals €0.84.</p>\n<p><b>Stream On</b></p>\n<p>It has been nearly 3 years since Spotify’s March 2018 Investor Day and it was nice to get some updates at Spotify’s February 2021 Stream Onevent.</p>\n<p>Global Co-Head of Music Jeremy Erlich noted that there are now over 60,000 tracks delivered to Spotify every day! The Spotify library contains over 70 million tracks, 4.5 billion playlists and more than 2 million podcasts per Chief R&amp;D Officer Gustav Söderström.</p>\n<p>Chief Content &amp; Advertising Business Officer Dawn Ostroff said there are now over 7,500 artists at Spotify generating more than $100,000 per year. She noted that in the U.S. consumers spend about the same amount of time listening to digital audio as they do watching digital video (over 9 hours per week). She added that digital audio advertising has lagged digital video advertising and that terrestrial and satellite radio are a $30 billion ad industry without the insights of modern advertising.</p>\n<p>Noting that advertisers are flying blind when podcast consumption is based on downloads, she revealed that Spotify’s shift to streaming unlocks missing data. Spotify’s Ad Insertion [SAI] has become one of their most in-demand ad tools as it lets advertisers reach the right audiences and understand the impact of their ads.</p>\n<p>CEO Ek said there were 3 million creators on Spotify 3 years ago and by the end of 2020 it was up to 8 million! He thinks there could be as many as 50 million creators by 2025! He emphasized that Spotify has a head start in audio of more than a decade and that this advantage gives them tremendous data, insights and experiences along with unrivaled size and scale. Spotify’s head start reminds me of what Bill Mesce Jr. said about HBO’s head start over Showtime in his<i>Inside the Rise of HBO</i>book:</p>\n<blockquote>\n It was a head start Showtime never overcame. By the late 1980s, HBO had a brand recognition level in the same league as Coca-Cola, meaning you had to have been living in a cave since 1972 not to know what HBO was. HBO had become so identified in the public mind with cable TV that many cable customers thought HBO and their cable company were the same thing!\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n [Location: 1,307]\n</blockquote>\n<p>The early leader has more advantages than just brand recognition. At the March 2018Investor Daythen CFO Barry McCarthy noted that the older subscription companies have an edge over newer subscription companies because older companies have lower average churn rates such that they can beat newer companies like a drum.</p>\n<p>I believe these updates are very encouraging as they show that Spotify has tremendous momentum. The fact that 60,000 songs are updated daily vs. just 20,000 2 years ago shows that the music industry is changing and the old ways of doing things with the labels are fading quickly. The large number of artists and listeners is a powerful combination and no one wants to be left out of the Spotify ecosystem.</p>\n<p><b>Stream On Investor Discussion</b></p>\n<p>The slides during the investordiscussionat the end of Stream On were very helpful.</p>\n<p>CEO Ek says the mission guides everything they do at Spotify:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4303c60b8f5981ea05099664de42cf1c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>When thinking about the mission, CEO Ek says we should keep their 4 pillars in mind. They are Create, Grow, Engage and Monetize. He says to keep these pillars in mind when thinking about all the Stream On announcements:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04f00cb996e32f33ff48ba72f2f505f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>There are 2 interlocking flywheels and Spotify is the facilitator in the middle. On the Creator side the Owned &amp; Exclusive [O&amp;E] podcast portfolio is becoming more important:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ccd066e55490a8acdd51e0f0d4bfb71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>Spotify shows that they have come a long way since the 2008 launch now that they have 345 million monthly active users [MAUs], 155 million premium subscribers, annual revenue of €7.9 billion and a gross margin of 26%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d78b9d290608d299e3230657b30488\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ff9c728e95d3cb19da3cd33bbdf0baf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"503\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>Spotify is already the leader for music streaming and they want to be the podcast leader as well. It can be dangerous for investors when new companies have rosy projections for the total addressable market [TAM] but we see from the slide above that Spotify is not a new company; they have proven themselves with music streaming and they have credibility with other audio ambitions:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1307809b7284693e1fd2bcee0b23c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>This data in the TAM slides is from a number of sources including a Goldman Sachs research report. Spotify is already at about 40% market share for music streaming. They want to take share in paid audio and podcasting such that they reach a level of 1/3rd to 40% of market share in those spaces. CEO Ek says the overall audio market will be vastly different in 2030:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb1ab14618249fd3cb9f76345ebd534\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"682\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>CEO Ek makes the following observations about the slide above:</p>\n<p>1. Audio is a fast growing market.</p>\n<p>2. Radio is going from a gigantic business to a smaller part of the audio space.</p>\n<p>3. Music streaming, podcasting and paid audio benefit as terrestrial radio is unbundled.</p>\n<p>He goes on to note that by 2030 music streaming should triple from $25 billion in annual revenue to $75 billion. By 2030 paid audio and podcasting should combine to be about $55 billion in annual revenue. As such, Spotify will be vying for a share of $130 billion in annual revenue. They want to have 1/3rd to 40% share so that could be $44 billion to $52 billion in annual revenue from music streaming, paid audio and podcasting. It’s a bit confusing because the slides are in $ but Spotify reports in €. Either way, the opportunity is vast. Speaking of paid audio, the Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) 202010-Kshows free cash flow of $1.7 billion on revenue of $8 billion for a margin of over 20%!</p>\n<p>Spotify CFO Vogel shows that they expect long term revenue growth to be 20%+. He then explains why they decided to increase the upper end of the long term gross margin range from 35% to 40%. In other words, the gross margin range shifted up from 30-35% in the Investor Day slides to 30-40% in the Stream On slides. The operating margin objective is 10%+ where R&amp;D should continue to see heavy investments but leverage should be obtained with sales/marketing and G&amp;A:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a217d0c4cac08a9a3feabd17aea83999\" tg-width=\"438\" tg-height=\"321\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>CFO Vogel reiterated 2021 guidance with respect to the full year:</p>\n<p>Total MAUs: 407 - 427 million</p>\n<p>Total Premium Subs: 172 - 184 million</p>\n<p>Total Revenue: €9.01 - €9.41 billion*</p>\n<p>*Assumes about 370 bps headwind due to foreign exchange</p>\n<p>Gross Margin: 23.7 - 25.7%</p>\n<p>Operating Loss: €(300) - €(200) million</p>\n<p>Showing the last slide, CFO Vogel recapped some of the large Stream On announcements:</p>\n<p>New Markets Expansion</p>\n<p>HiFi</p>\n<p>New Owned &amp; Exclusive (“O&amp;E”) Content</p>\n<p>New Anchor Features</p>\n<p>Spotify Audience Network</p>\n<p>Ad Studio For Podcasting</p>\n<p>SAI Expansion</p>\n<p>Sponsored Recommendation Expansion</p>\n<p>Discovery Mode Early Results</p>\n<p>The first 4 announcements above impact both consumers and creators. The New Markets Expansion means the 85 new markets will bring the global total up to 170+. President Obama and Bruce Springsteen are highlighted with the new O&amp;E content. The New Anchor Features make it easier for WordPress bloggers to become podcasters. Aimed at creators, the last 5 announcements are the right types of tools that are needed as the world changes. Spotify Audience Network, Ad Studio For Podcasting and SAI Expansion are in the advertising category. Sponsored Recommendation Expansion and Discovery Mode Early Results are in the marketplace category.</p>\n<p>These slides left a meaningful impact on me as they show that Spotify is well positioned to be the dominant company in a growing audio world. The foundation is being laid down such that Spotify should have a substantial portion of the $130 billion TAM in 2030.</p>\n<p><b>Stream On Q&amp;A</b></p>\n<p>CEO Ek and CFO Vogel held a helpful Q&amp;A session following the Stream On investor discussion.</p>\n<p>CFO Vogel said they expect “significant growth” in marketplace contribution to gross profit in 2021 and we know this is accretive to gross margin. CEO Ek made encouraging statements with margins as well by saying the #1 question from artists is about things they can do to be heard while the #1 question from consumers is how they can discover more content. This double-sided coin allows Spotify to create more efficient ways for creators and consumers to meet. In forming these relationships Spotify gets compensated in a manner that is accretive to margins.</p>\n<p>Regarding the 2030 revenue opportunity, a question was asked about the potential mix between subscription and advertising. CEO Ek responded by saying advertising will increase from today’s level of 10% vs 90% subscription. Referencing the $130 billion TAM, CEO Ek stated that advertising can be between 20 and 40% of the revenue mix. He also mentioned the transactional or a la carte part.</p>\n<p>A question was asked about getting to 50 million creators. Mentioning the internationalization of audiences, CEO Ek remarked that 80% of Spotify creators have audiences outside of their home countries. He went on to talk about the New Anchor Features announcement which revealed that vloggers can now create podcasts with 1 click.</p>\n<p>Following this Q&amp;A, it’s clear to me that Spotify will have a unique role in the future of audio as there has never been a company in a position to have 50 million artists to go along with hundreds of millions of listeners.</p>\n<p><b>Streaming Is Crucial For The Music Industry</b></p>\n<p>I believe there has been some mendacity in the past with respect to just how much the labels depend on Spotify but that seems to be changing. The 202010-Kfor Warner Music Group (WMG) shows that streaming is more important than ever for the music industry:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5c127e386be593a686957c01755885\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\"><span>Image Source: Warner Music Group 10-K</span></p>\n<p>The Warner Music Group 10-K goes on to show the importance of their relationship with Spotify. The Digital/streaming segment is prodigious and it is still growing! It was 51% of overall revenue or $2.3 billion/$4.5 billion in 2019 and 58% or $2.6 billion/$4.5 billion in 2020.</p>\n<p>The Vivendi (OTCPK:VIVEF) Full Year 2020Resultsshow the importance of streaming for their Universal Music Group subsidiary:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2219ce9b68792547ed18b325902e035a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>Image Source: Vivendi Full Year 2020 Results</span></p>\n<p>The Vivendi Full Year 2020 Results show streaming and subscriptions were 46% of Universal Music Group revenue or €3.3 billion/€7.2 billion in 2019 and 51% or €3.8 billion/€7.4 billion in 2020.</p>\n<p>I’ve seen that analysts have questioned Spotify’s position with the labels but the labels themselves all say that the streaming market is growing and Spotify is the clear leader in this area.</p>\n<p><b>Independent Artists</b></p>\n<p>The Big 3 labels and Merlin are becoming a little less dominant every year as independent artists rise. The SpotifyF-1filing shows that the Big 3 labels and Merlin accounted for about 87% of music streams back in 2017. The 20-F filings and a MIDiAwriteupshow how that has changed since then:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2e736757796fabcbd3880c10b056f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Image Source: MIDiA</span></p>\n<p>The Big 3 labels and Merlin are dropping more noticeably as time goes on, losing 2 percentage points from 2017 to 2018, 3 points from 2018 to 2019 and 4 points from 2019 to 2020.</p>\n<p>GCAsays20,000 tracks were uploaded daily in 2018 and this went up to 40,000 daily in 2019. In the Stream On event Global Co-Head of Music Jeremy Erlich said it is now 60,000 daily! GCA shows that the number of independent artists on Spotify is growing rapidly:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351cbccd1ea0c815c1ac626adc7c0699\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"820\"><span>Image Source: GCA 4Q20 Report</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59977d4d1725c2e9b060afdd2f46e25\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"307\"><span>Image Source: GCA 4Q20 Report.</span></p>\n<p><i>I added red text to the GCA image above to note that Spotify now has 60K tracks updated daily and 22% of their streams are now from non-majors!</i></p>\n<p>It isn’t surprising that we see a higher percentage of independent artists each year as the idea of signing away lifetime royalties continues to be questioned more directly as time passes.</p>\n<p><b>User Growth</b></p>\n<p>Visual Capitalistshowsthat Spotify already has more than twice as many paid subs as either Apple Music (AAPL) or Amazon (AMZN):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58416f1db36b3fd8a8e3e2be84483587\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"930\"><span>Image Source: Visual Capitalist</span></p>\n<p>It isn’t just that Spotify has more paid subs than Apple and Amazon. Spotify users voraciously listen to streams and it is said that Spotify has more engagement per sub than Apple and Amazon.</p>\n<p>The Warner Music Group 10-K says that music streaming is still in the early stages of global adoption and penetration. Spotify was founded in Sweden and about 43% of the people there are paid music subs compared to 27% in the U.S., 18% in Germany and 8% in Japan. At the Stream On event Spotifyannouncedthat they are expanding to 80+ new markets:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3b034aeab1451a814675bcc97a0c2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1445\"><span>Image Source: Spotify newsroom</span></p>\n<p>The Spotify user number that I follow closest on the 202020-Fis the premium subscriber count:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef9dc4c8e8f7cfc1191cb232b43d1c1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"102\"><span>Image Source: 2020 20-F</span></p>\n<p>Their MAUs include both premium subs and ad-supported users. This overall number isn’t quite as important to me as premium subs at this time because the economics for ad-supported users aren’t great right now. I view the ad-supported service as a subsidy program that offsets the costs of new premium subs. MAUs grew from 207 million in 2018 to 271 million in 2019 and then they went up to 345 million in 2020.</p>\n<p>In the 2Q20callCEO Daniel Ek noted that they have a culture of experimentation, upping the number of A/B tests from a few hundred to thousands. He goes on to say that there is still a lot of pent-up demand for Spotify in markets around the world</p>\n<p>Apple’s aversion to advertising is a huge disadvantage in this space. I think Spotify will continue to have a large lead over Apple with respect to paid subs as Spotify can use the ad-based freemium model as a customer acquisition tool for the paid side. It isn’t a good sign for Apple that they stopped disclosing the number of paid subs.Statistashows that we needn’t worry much about competition from Apple Music in places like Brazil and India where iOS share is minimal:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b21e19d936e3c7ddd5070ef2260bf0c\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"399\"><span>Image Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>Amazon Music is disadvantaged in Latin America where MercadoLibre is the dominant online marketplace. Both Amazon and Apple have priorities other than audio whereas Spotify is focused in this area.</p>\n<p><b>Long Term Goal Of Revenue Growth 20%+</b></p>\n<p>Spotify revenue climbed about 29% from $5.26 billion in 2018 to $6.76 billion in 2019. It then went up over 16% in 2020 to $7.88 billion. The Y/Y growth rates for the 2018 to 2019 period and the 2019 to 2020 period are much closer when we view them through a lens that removes the foreign currency effect. In that case Y/Y growth from 2019 to 2020 slowed to 20% after being 26% from 2018 to 2019 per the 4Q20 shareholderletterand the 4Q19 shareholderletter, respectively. A red box has been added below to the Reconciliation of IFRS to Non-IFRS Results table below from the 4Q20 shareholder letter in order to emphasize the adjusted growth rate of 20%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef11b79ac7a694673caef8da4e19bc6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\"><span>Image Source: 4Q20 shareholder letter</span></p>\n<p>The 3Q20 letter and the 4Q20 letter say the depreciation of the USD vs. the euro was the primary driver behind the foreign currency effect.Trading Economicsshows the way the euro increased against the USD in 2020:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/796592a599eeacb95a672653df4a6452\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Image Source: Trading Economics</span></p>\n<p>Other factors explaining the lower revenue growth are the lower growth of premium subs, lower monthly average revenue per user [ARPU] due to things like family plans and lower monthly ARPU in some geographies. Monthly premium ARPU fell from €4.81 in 2018 to €4.72 in 2019 to €4.31 in 2020 but this is part of the market share strategy and they didn’t want to raise prices during the Covid-19 pandemic.</p>\n<p>Management explained during the Stream On event that they expect long term revenue growth to be 20%+ but their 2021 guidance appears to be below this percentage in part due to foreign exchange headwinds . I think they can get back to the 20%+ growth level starting with the 2021 to 2022 period.</p>\n<p><b>Long-Term Goal Of Gross Margin 30-40%</b></p>\n<p>Management put up a slide during the March 2018 Investor Day presentation saying they would eventually like to get to gross margins of 30-35%. Then CFO Barry McCarthy said explained the thought process:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Now if the investments we make in R&amp;D and content improve the overall user experience, and if, as a result of building our two-sided marketplace, we come to own discovery and demand creation for users and artists, then we expect the long-term margin structure of the business to evolve along the lines summarized on this slide.\n</blockquote>\n<p>In the 2Q20callCEO Daniel Ek answered a question about promoted songs saying that promotion/marketing has overtaken distribution as the most expensive cost for labels:</p>\n<blockquote>\n So if labels instead reinvest some of the portion of the marketing spend that they use to promote market artists on this platform natively, the result should be a lot better. You should see better results for consumers because they're getting more of what they actually like. You should see better results for artists and labels as well because they're able to grow their fans a lot better at more efficiently priced -- prices than, say, other advertising marketplaces or billboards that they've traditionally spent them on. And of course, for Spotify, it means a higher gross margin business as well.\n</blockquote>\n<p>This sounds a lot to me like Amazon telling their third-party merchants that they could improve marketplace results by advertising. And what we’ve seen with respect to advertising revenue at Amazon has been mind boggling. A footnote on their 202010-Ksays the “Other” segment that went from $10.1 billion in 2018 to $21.5 billion in 2020 is primarily advertising.</p>\n<p>The 2020 20-F reminds us that Spotify is in the discovery business and this is good for the gross margin:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Spotify is more than an audio streaming service. We are in the discovery business. Every day, fans from around the world trust our brand to guide them to music and entertainment that they would never have discovered on their own. If discovery drives delight, and delight drives engagement, and engagement drives discovery, we believe Spotify wins and so do our users.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The 4Q20 Warner Music Group earningscalltalked about one of the many ways in which Spotify can increase the gross margins. Jessica Ehrlich of BofA Merrill Lynch asked about Spotify’s marketing tools:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Spotify is testing a new discovery mode, which allows artists and labels to influence the songs selected by its algorithm by receiving a lower royalty payout. How does this feature affect your marketing strategy? And how do you think about the importance of marketing within that ecosystem or in DSPs in general versus marketing or promoting music through other channels?\n</blockquote>\n<p>Warner CEO Stephen Cooper answered by saying they experiment with marketing tools regularly. I believe there are many ways that Spotify can provide value in this area over the years and it’s hard to envision a future where this doesn’t work well for all parties involved.</p>\n<p>Ben Swinburne asked about Spotify raising the high end of their gross margin guidance to 40% at the March 2021 Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and TelecomConference. CFO Paul Vogel responded:</p>\n<blockquote>\n I mean for us, it's just the optionality of all the new initiatives and all the investments that we see over the next 3 to 5 years. And so if you think about the opportunity in podcast, and when you think about the opportunities in ad network, right? A couple of years ago, there really wasn't as much of a thought around us being and creating an advertising network. And now we think that's, obviously, something we're developing and building. And we think if it goes really well, there could be upside there to margins in initiatives like that. And there's obviously other things we're working on that we didn't even announce at Stream On in terms of products or innovations.\n</blockquote>\n<p>We haven’t even seen all the ways in which the gross margin will rise as the audio space continues to evolve.</p>\n<p><b>Long-Term Goal Of Operating Margin 10+%</b></p>\n<p>I don’t expect them to get to this level anytime soon given what then CFO Barry McCarthy said at the March 2018 Investor Day:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Growth, of course, has pressured our operating margins. And you should expect us to continue to invest in growth at the expense of operating profit, because we believe growth increases our enterprise value.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Now in some respects, this reminds me of my first 10 years at Netflix, when we transitioned from operating with a negative gross margin to operating with a 35% gross margin as the business scaled. And the point here is that scale can be a great enabler of margin expansion, particularly if you couple it with data insights to drive a better user interface, add a better content experience, and in the process come to own demand creation and the margin that comes with owning demand creation.\n</blockquote>\n<p>In the 4Q20 earningscalla question from Steven Cahall pointed out that the implied 2021 incremental operating margin is about 3%. His question was about meaningful margin expansion in the future. CFO Vogel answered by saying R&amp;D will continue to see heavy investment such that there won’t be much leveraging there. He went on to say that sales and marketing along with G&amp;A could see some leverage:</p>\n<blockquote>\n And then when you look at sort of sales and marketing, I think there are areas over time that we could be more efficient there, potentially on the marketing side we'll see them and also on the sales side as we add more automation into the ecosystem and more self-serve products and those types of things.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n And in the G&amp;A side as well. I mean it's a heavy lift first to go and be prepared to be a public company. And then as you continue to launch more and more markets, what you need to do from an infrastructure standpoint, obviously, there's some build-out there. But you can imagine over time, once we're in more markets where we want to be and where it is sufficient scale, you'll start to see leverage on the G&amp;A side as well.\n</blockquote>\n<p>CEO Ek chimed in during the 4Q20 call as well noting that it is expensive to go after billions of consumers around the world in the audio category. They also have to invest in tools for millions of creators and this hurts the operating margin:</p>\n<blockquote>\n And these are multiyear investments. Plus, of course, adding to the fact that we're producing our own content. We're pursuing exclusives. We're going into categories. We're going into new markets. Those are all the things that you're seeing in the P&amp;L coming through that we are doing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>CEO Ek went on to say that at a mature state, the business will look very different than the growth stage that they’re investing behind now.</p>\n<p>I try not to anchor on the current economics and I believe they can eventually get to 12 to 15% operating margins well into the future after the audio space has changed dramatically.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The midpoint of 2021 revenue guidance is 9.2 billion euros as there are foreign exchange headwinds. Management is aiming for 20%+ revenue growth in the long run. Starting with a base of 9.2 billion euros in 2021, if they can grow revenue at 20% then revenue should be close to 20 billion euros by 2025.</p>\n<p>If Spotify can have a steady-state operating margin of 12 to 15% by that time then operating earnings should be about 2.4 to 3 billion euros and if the company is valued at 25x that amount then we’re talking about a value of around 60 to 75 euros. Right now 1 euro equals $1.21 and if the exchange rate is similar in 2025 then this range will be equivalent to $73 to $91 billion. It’s hard to say what that is worth today but if it is around $55 billion then the 5 year CAGR range could be 6 to 11%.</p>\n<p>The enterprise value is fairly close to the market cap. The 2020 20-F shows 190,212,847 shares and the March 5th share price was $274.98 implying a market cap of $52.3 billion. I think the stock is reasonably priced as the $52.3 billion market cap is less than the $55 billion mentioned above.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Spotify Is Rocking And Rolling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpotify Is Rocking And Rolling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-09 19:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412401-spotify-is-rocking-and-rolling><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe February 2021 Stream On event explains that Spotify’s future is exciting!\nLike Amazon, Spotify focuses on growth and FCF as opposed to reported accrual earnings.\nThere are now over 60,000...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412401-spotify-is-rocking-and-rolling\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412401-spotify-is-rocking-and-rolling","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1123435119","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe February 2021 Stream On event explains that Spotify’s future is exciting!\nLike Amazon, Spotify focuses on growth and FCF as opposed to reported accrual earnings.\nThere are now over 60,000 tracks delivered to Spotify every day!\n\nIntroduction\nMy thesis is that Spotify (SPOT) is well-positioned to continue being the leader in audio as the world changes. Co-founder and CEO Daniel Ek is special. Following former CFO Barry McCarthy, current CFO Paul Vogel has big shoes to fill and I think he is up to the challenge.\nSpotify reports their financials in euros. At the time of this writing, $1 equals €0.84.\nStream On\nIt has been nearly 3 years since Spotify’s March 2018 Investor Day and it was nice to get some updates at Spotify’s February 2021 Stream Onevent.\nGlobal Co-Head of Music Jeremy Erlich noted that there are now over 60,000 tracks delivered to Spotify every day! The Spotify library contains over 70 million tracks, 4.5 billion playlists and more than 2 million podcasts per Chief R&D Officer Gustav Söderström.\nChief Content & Advertising Business Officer Dawn Ostroff said there are now over 7,500 artists at Spotify generating more than $100,000 per year. She noted that in the U.S. consumers spend about the same amount of time listening to digital audio as they do watching digital video (over 9 hours per week). She added that digital audio advertising has lagged digital video advertising and that terrestrial and satellite radio are a $30 billion ad industry without the insights of modern advertising.\nNoting that advertisers are flying blind when podcast consumption is based on downloads, she revealed that Spotify’s shift to streaming unlocks missing data. Spotify’s Ad Insertion [SAI] has become one of their most in-demand ad tools as it lets advertisers reach the right audiences and understand the impact of their ads.\nCEO Ek said there were 3 million creators on Spotify 3 years ago and by the end of 2020 it was up to 8 million! He thinks there could be as many as 50 million creators by 2025! He emphasized that Spotify has a head start in audio of more than a decade and that this advantage gives them tremendous data, insights and experiences along with unrivaled size and scale. Spotify’s head start reminds me of what Bill Mesce Jr. said about HBO’s head start over Showtime in hisInside the Rise of HBObook:\n\n It was a head start Showtime never overcame. By the late 1980s, HBO had a brand recognition level in the same league as Coca-Cola, meaning you had to have been living in a cave since 1972 not to know what HBO was. HBO had become so identified in the public mind with cable TV that many cable customers thought HBO and their cable company were the same thing!\n\n\n [Location: 1,307]\n\nThe early leader has more advantages than just brand recognition. At the March 2018Investor Daythen CFO Barry McCarthy noted that the older subscription companies have an edge over newer subscription companies because older companies have lower average churn rates such that they can beat newer companies like a drum.\nI believe these updates are very encouraging as they show that Spotify has tremendous momentum. The fact that 60,000 songs are updated daily vs. just 20,000 2 years ago shows that the music industry is changing and the old ways of doing things with the labels are fading quickly. The large number of artists and listeners is a powerful combination and no one wants to be left out of the Spotify ecosystem.\nStream On Investor Discussion\nThe slides during the investordiscussionat the end of Stream On were very helpful.\nCEO Ek says the mission guides everything they do at Spotify:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nWhen thinking about the mission, CEO Ek says we should keep their 4 pillars in mind. They are Create, Grow, Engage and Monetize. He says to keep these pillars in mind when thinking about all the Stream On announcements:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nThere are 2 interlocking flywheels and Spotify is the facilitator in the middle. On the Creator side the Owned & Exclusive [O&E] podcast portfolio is becoming more important:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nSpotify shows that they have come a long way since the 2008 launch now that they have 345 million monthly active users [MAUs], 155 million premium subscribers, annual revenue of €7.9 billion and a gross margin of 26%:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nSpotify is already the leader for music streaming and they want to be the podcast leader as well. It can be dangerous for investors when new companies have rosy projections for the total addressable market [TAM] but we see from the slide above that Spotify is not a new company; they have proven themselves with music streaming and they have credibility with other audio ambitions:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nThis data in the TAM slides is from a number of sources including a Goldman Sachs research report. Spotify is already at about 40% market share for music streaming. They want to take share in paid audio and podcasting such that they reach a level of 1/3rd to 40% of market share in those spaces. CEO Ek says the overall audio market will be vastly different in 2030:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nCEO Ek makes the following observations about the slide above:\n1. Audio is a fast growing market.\n2. Radio is going from a gigantic business to a smaller part of the audio space.\n3. Music streaming, podcasting and paid audio benefit as terrestrial radio is unbundled.\nHe goes on to note that by 2030 music streaming should triple from $25 billion in annual revenue to $75 billion. By 2030 paid audio and podcasting should combine to be about $55 billion in annual revenue. As such, Spotify will be vying for a share of $130 billion in annual revenue. They want to have 1/3rd to 40% share so that could be $44 billion to $52 billion in annual revenue from music streaming, paid audio and podcasting. It’s a bit confusing because the slides are in $ but Spotify reports in €. Either way, the opportunity is vast. Speaking of paid audio, the Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) 202010-Kshows free cash flow of $1.7 billion on revenue of $8 billion for a margin of over 20%!\nSpotify CFO Vogel shows that they expect long term revenue growth to be 20%+. He then explains why they decided to increase the upper end of the long term gross margin range from 35% to 40%. In other words, the gross margin range shifted up from 30-35% in the Investor Day slides to 30-40% in the Stream On slides. The operating margin objective is 10%+ where R&D should continue to see heavy investments but leverage should be obtained with sales/marketing and G&A:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nCFO Vogel reiterated 2021 guidance with respect to the full year:\nTotal MAUs: 407 - 427 million\nTotal Premium Subs: 172 - 184 million\nTotal Revenue: €9.01 - €9.41 billion*\n*Assumes about 370 bps headwind due to foreign exchange\nGross Margin: 23.7 - 25.7%\nOperating Loss: €(300) - €(200) million\nShowing the last slide, CFO Vogel recapped some of the large Stream On announcements:\nNew Markets Expansion\nHiFi\nNew Owned & Exclusive (“O&E”) Content\nNew Anchor Features\nSpotify Audience Network\nAd Studio For Podcasting\nSAI Expansion\nSponsored Recommendation Expansion\nDiscovery Mode Early Results\nThe first 4 announcements above impact both consumers and creators. The New Markets Expansion means the 85 new markets will bring the global total up to 170+. President Obama and Bruce Springsteen are highlighted with the new O&E content. The New Anchor Features make it easier for WordPress bloggers to become podcasters. Aimed at creators, the last 5 announcements are the right types of tools that are needed as the world changes. Spotify Audience Network, Ad Studio For Podcasting and SAI Expansion are in the advertising category. Sponsored Recommendation Expansion and Discovery Mode Early Results are in the marketplace category.\nThese slides left a meaningful impact on me as they show that Spotify is well positioned to be the dominant company in a growing audio world. The foundation is being laid down such that Spotify should have a substantial portion of the $130 billion TAM in 2030.\nStream On Q&A\nCEO Ek and CFO Vogel held a helpful Q&A session following the Stream On investor discussion.\nCFO Vogel said they expect “significant growth” in marketplace contribution to gross profit in 2021 and we know this is accretive to gross margin. CEO Ek made encouraging statements with margins as well by saying the #1 question from artists is about things they can do to be heard while the #1 question from consumers is how they can discover more content. This double-sided coin allows Spotify to create more efficient ways for creators and consumers to meet. In forming these relationships Spotify gets compensated in a manner that is accretive to margins.\nRegarding the 2030 revenue opportunity, a question was asked about the potential mix between subscription and advertising. CEO Ek responded by saying advertising will increase from today’s level of 10% vs 90% subscription. Referencing the $130 billion TAM, CEO Ek stated that advertising can be between 20 and 40% of the revenue mix. He also mentioned the transactional or a la carte part.\nA question was asked about getting to 50 million creators. Mentioning the internationalization of audiences, CEO Ek remarked that 80% of Spotify creators have audiences outside of their home countries. He went on to talk about the New Anchor Features announcement which revealed that vloggers can now create podcasts with 1 click.\nFollowing this Q&A, it’s clear to me that Spotify will have a unique role in the future of audio as there has never been a company in a position to have 50 million artists to go along with hundreds of millions of listeners.\nStreaming Is Crucial For The Music Industry\nI believe there has been some mendacity in the past with respect to just how much the labels depend on Spotify but that seems to be changing. The 202010-Kfor Warner Music Group (WMG) shows that streaming is more important than ever for the music industry:\nImage Source: Warner Music Group 10-K\nThe Warner Music Group 10-K goes on to show the importance of their relationship with Spotify. The Digital/streaming segment is prodigious and it is still growing! It was 51% of overall revenue or $2.3 billion/$4.5 billion in 2019 and 58% or $2.6 billion/$4.5 billion in 2020.\nThe Vivendi (OTCPK:VIVEF) Full Year 2020Resultsshow the importance of streaming for their Universal Music Group subsidiary:\nImage Source: Vivendi Full Year 2020 Results\nThe Vivendi Full Year 2020 Results show streaming and subscriptions were 46% of Universal Music Group revenue or €3.3 billion/€7.2 billion in 2019 and 51% or €3.8 billion/€7.4 billion in 2020.\nI’ve seen that analysts have questioned Spotify’s position with the labels but the labels themselves all say that the streaming market is growing and Spotify is the clear leader in this area.\nIndependent Artists\nThe Big 3 labels and Merlin are becoming a little less dominant every year as independent artists rise. The SpotifyF-1filing shows that the Big 3 labels and Merlin accounted for about 87% of music streams back in 2017. The 20-F filings and a MIDiAwriteupshow how that has changed since then:\nImage Source: MIDiA\nThe Big 3 labels and Merlin are dropping more noticeably as time goes on, losing 2 percentage points from 2017 to 2018, 3 points from 2018 to 2019 and 4 points from 2019 to 2020.\nGCAsays20,000 tracks were uploaded daily in 2018 and this went up to 40,000 daily in 2019. In the Stream On event Global Co-Head of Music Jeremy Erlich said it is now 60,000 daily! GCA shows that the number of independent artists on Spotify is growing rapidly:\nImage Source: GCA 4Q20 Report\nImage Source: GCA 4Q20 Report.\nI added red text to the GCA image above to note that Spotify now has 60K tracks updated daily and 22% of their streams are now from non-majors!\nIt isn’t surprising that we see a higher percentage of independent artists each year as the idea of signing away lifetime royalties continues to be questioned more directly as time passes.\nUser Growth\nVisual Capitalistshowsthat Spotify already has more than twice as many paid subs as either Apple Music (AAPL) or Amazon (AMZN):\nImage Source: Visual Capitalist\nIt isn’t just that Spotify has more paid subs than Apple and Amazon. Spotify users voraciously listen to streams and it is said that Spotify has more engagement per sub than Apple and Amazon.\nThe Warner Music Group 10-K says that music streaming is still in the early stages of global adoption and penetration. Spotify was founded in Sweden and about 43% of the people there are paid music subs compared to 27% in the U.S., 18% in Germany and 8% in Japan. At the Stream On event Spotifyannouncedthat they are expanding to 80+ new markets:\nImage Source: Spotify newsroom\nThe Spotify user number that I follow closest on the 202020-Fis the premium subscriber count:\nImage Source: 2020 20-F\nTheir MAUs include both premium subs and ad-supported users. This overall number isn’t quite as important to me as premium subs at this time because the economics for ad-supported users aren’t great right now. I view the ad-supported service as a subsidy program that offsets the costs of new premium subs. MAUs grew from 207 million in 2018 to 271 million in 2019 and then they went up to 345 million in 2020.\nIn the 2Q20callCEO Daniel Ek noted that they have a culture of experimentation, upping the number of A/B tests from a few hundred to thousands. He goes on to say that there is still a lot of pent-up demand for Spotify in markets around the world\nApple’s aversion to advertising is a huge disadvantage in this space. I think Spotify will continue to have a large lead over Apple with respect to paid subs as Spotify can use the ad-based freemium model as a customer acquisition tool for the paid side. It isn’t a good sign for Apple that they stopped disclosing the number of paid subs.Statistashows that we needn’t worry much about competition from Apple Music in places like Brazil and India where iOS share is minimal:\nImage Source: Statista\nAmazon Music is disadvantaged in Latin America where MercadoLibre is the dominant online marketplace. Both Amazon and Apple have priorities other than audio whereas Spotify is focused in this area.\nLong Term Goal Of Revenue Growth 20%+\nSpotify revenue climbed about 29% from $5.26 billion in 2018 to $6.76 billion in 2019. It then went up over 16% in 2020 to $7.88 billion. The Y/Y growth rates for the 2018 to 2019 period and the 2019 to 2020 period are much closer when we view them through a lens that removes the foreign currency effect. In that case Y/Y growth from 2019 to 2020 slowed to 20% after being 26% from 2018 to 2019 per the 4Q20 shareholderletterand the 4Q19 shareholderletter, respectively. A red box has been added below to the Reconciliation of IFRS to Non-IFRS Results table below from the 4Q20 shareholder letter in order to emphasize the adjusted growth rate of 20%:\nImage Source: 4Q20 shareholder letter\nThe 3Q20 letter and the 4Q20 letter say the depreciation of the USD vs. the euro was the primary driver behind the foreign currency effect.Trading Economicsshows the way the euro increased against the USD in 2020:\nImage Source: Trading Economics\nOther factors explaining the lower revenue growth are the lower growth of premium subs, lower monthly average revenue per user [ARPU] due to things like family plans and lower monthly ARPU in some geographies. Monthly premium ARPU fell from €4.81 in 2018 to €4.72 in 2019 to €4.31 in 2020 but this is part of the market share strategy and they didn’t want to raise prices during the Covid-19 pandemic.\nManagement explained during the Stream On event that they expect long term revenue growth to be 20%+ but their 2021 guidance appears to be below this percentage in part due to foreign exchange headwinds . I think they can get back to the 20%+ growth level starting with the 2021 to 2022 period.\nLong-Term Goal Of Gross Margin 30-40%\nManagement put up a slide during the March 2018 Investor Day presentation saying they would eventually like to get to gross margins of 30-35%. Then CFO Barry McCarthy said explained the thought process:\n\n Now if the investments we make in R&D and content improve the overall user experience, and if, as a result of building our two-sided marketplace, we come to own discovery and demand creation for users and artists, then we expect the long-term margin structure of the business to evolve along the lines summarized on this slide.\n\nIn the 2Q20callCEO Daniel Ek answered a question about promoted songs saying that promotion/marketing has overtaken distribution as the most expensive cost for labels:\n\n So if labels instead reinvest some of the portion of the marketing spend that they use to promote market artists on this platform natively, the result should be a lot better. You should see better results for consumers because they're getting more of what they actually like. You should see better results for artists and labels as well because they're able to grow their fans a lot better at more efficiently priced -- prices than, say, other advertising marketplaces or billboards that they've traditionally spent them on. And of course, for Spotify, it means a higher gross margin business as well.\n\nThis sounds a lot to me like Amazon telling their third-party merchants that they could improve marketplace results by advertising. And what we’ve seen with respect to advertising revenue at Amazon has been mind boggling. A footnote on their 202010-Ksays the “Other” segment that went from $10.1 billion in 2018 to $21.5 billion in 2020 is primarily advertising.\nThe 2020 20-F reminds us that Spotify is in the discovery business and this is good for the gross margin:\n\n Spotify is more than an audio streaming service. We are in the discovery business. Every day, fans from around the world trust our brand to guide them to music and entertainment that they would never have discovered on their own. If discovery drives delight, and delight drives engagement, and engagement drives discovery, we believe Spotify wins and so do our users.\n\nThe 4Q20 Warner Music Group earningscalltalked about one of the many ways in which Spotify can increase the gross margins. Jessica Ehrlich of BofA Merrill Lynch asked about Spotify’s marketing tools:\n\n Spotify is testing a new discovery mode, which allows artists and labels to influence the songs selected by its algorithm by receiving a lower royalty payout. How does this feature affect your marketing strategy? And how do you think about the importance of marketing within that ecosystem or in DSPs in general versus marketing or promoting music through other channels?\n\nWarner CEO Stephen Cooper answered by saying they experiment with marketing tools regularly. I believe there are many ways that Spotify can provide value in this area over the years and it’s hard to envision a future where this doesn’t work well for all parties involved.\nBen Swinburne asked about Spotify raising the high end of their gross margin guidance to 40% at the March 2021 Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and TelecomConference. CFO Paul Vogel responded:\n\n I mean for us, it's just the optionality of all the new initiatives and all the investments that we see over the next 3 to 5 years. And so if you think about the opportunity in podcast, and when you think about the opportunities in ad network, right? A couple of years ago, there really wasn't as much of a thought around us being and creating an advertising network. And now we think that's, obviously, something we're developing and building. And we think if it goes really well, there could be upside there to margins in initiatives like that. And there's obviously other things we're working on that we didn't even announce at Stream On in terms of products or innovations.\n\nWe haven’t even seen all the ways in which the gross margin will rise as the audio space continues to evolve.\nLong-Term Goal Of Operating Margin 10+%\nI don’t expect them to get to this level anytime soon given what then CFO Barry McCarthy said at the March 2018 Investor Day:\n\n Growth, of course, has pressured our operating margins. And you should expect us to continue to invest in growth at the expense of operating profit, because we believe growth increases our enterprise value.\n\n\n Now in some respects, this reminds me of my first 10 years at Netflix, when we transitioned from operating with a negative gross margin to operating with a 35% gross margin as the business scaled. And the point here is that scale can be a great enabler of margin expansion, particularly if you couple it with data insights to drive a better user interface, add a better content experience, and in the process come to own demand creation and the margin that comes with owning demand creation.\n\nIn the 4Q20 earningscalla question from Steven Cahall pointed out that the implied 2021 incremental operating margin is about 3%. His question was about meaningful margin expansion in the future. CFO Vogel answered by saying R&D will continue to see heavy investment such that there won’t be much leveraging there. He went on to say that sales and marketing along with G&A could see some leverage:\n\n And then when you look at sort of sales and marketing, I think there are areas over time that we could be more efficient there, potentially on the marketing side we'll see them and also on the sales side as we add more automation into the ecosystem and more self-serve products and those types of things.\n\n\n And in the G&A side as well. I mean it's a heavy lift first to go and be prepared to be a public company. And then as you continue to launch more and more markets, what you need to do from an infrastructure standpoint, obviously, there's some build-out there. But you can imagine over time, once we're in more markets where we want to be and where it is sufficient scale, you'll start to see leverage on the G&A side as well.\n\nCEO Ek chimed in during the 4Q20 call as well noting that it is expensive to go after billions of consumers around the world in the audio category. They also have to invest in tools for millions of creators and this hurts the operating margin:\n\n And these are multiyear investments. Plus, of course, adding to the fact that we're producing our own content. We're pursuing exclusives. We're going into categories. We're going into new markets. Those are all the things that you're seeing in the P&L coming through that we are doing.\n\nCEO Ek went on to say that at a mature state, the business will look very different than the growth stage that they’re investing behind now.\nI try not to anchor on the current economics and I believe they can eventually get to 12 to 15% operating margins well into the future after the audio space has changed dramatically.\nValuation\nThe midpoint of 2021 revenue guidance is 9.2 billion euros as there are foreign exchange headwinds. Management is aiming for 20%+ revenue growth in the long run. Starting with a base of 9.2 billion euros in 2021, if they can grow revenue at 20% then revenue should be close to 20 billion euros by 2025.\nIf Spotify can have a steady-state operating margin of 12 to 15% by that time then operating earnings should be about 2.4 to 3 billion euros and if the company is valued at 25x that amount then we’re talking about a value of around 60 to 75 euros. Right now 1 euro equals $1.21 and if the exchange rate is similar in 2025 then this range will be equivalent to $73 to $91 billion. It’s hard to say what that is worth today but if it is around $55 billion then the 5 year CAGR range could be 6 to 11%.\nThe enterprise value is fairly close to the market cap. The 2020 20-F shows 190,212,847 shares and the March 5th share price was $274.98 implying a market cap of $52.3 billion. I think the stock is reasonably priced as the $52.3 billion market cap is less than the $55 billion mentioned above.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":305460418576696,"gmtCreate":1715609799509,"gmtModify":1716199371394,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/BABA 20240524 80.0 CALL\">$BABA 20240524 80.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/BABA 20240524 80.0 CALL\">$BABA 20240524 80.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$BABA 20240524 80.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d9fd3691128b89db2bc94e763f6d3bb1","width":"927","height":"1598"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/305460418576696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139877376,"gmtCreate":1621609576495,"gmtModify":1704360557325,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139877376","repostId":"1198772655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194865118,"gmtCreate":1621354995234,"gmtModify":1704356372455,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Tongue]&nbsp;","listText":"[Tongue]&nbsp;","text":"[Tongue]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194865118","repostId":"2135161248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135161248","pubTimestamp":1621343169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135161248?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-18 21:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JD.com to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135161248","media":"Zacks","summary":"JD.com, Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.\nFor the first quarter, the","content":"<p><b>JD.com, Inc.</b>&nbsp;is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.</p>\n<p>For the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $29.9 billion, indicating an improvement of 44.9% from the year-ago reported figure.</p>\n<p>Further, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, indicating a 39.3% rise from the previous-year reported figure.</p>\n<p>Notably, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.6% in the last reported quarter.</p>\n<p><b>JD.com, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1fed1c36f6a8ce20878c0d2e594f77c\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>JD.com, Inc. price-eps-surprise | JD.com, Inc. Quote</span></p>\n<p><b>Key Factors to Note</b></p>\n<p>The company’s JD Retail segment, comprising the e-commerce business, is expected to have been the key catalyst in the first quarter.</p>\n<p>The launch of flagship stores of popular fashion and luxury brands like John Lobb, Stefano Ricci, Vivienne Westwoodon and Anya Hindmarch, among others, on JD.com is likely to have driven customer momentum, which in turn is expected to have aided the performance of JD Retail during the quarter-to-be-reported.</p>\n<p>JD retail’s omni-channel initiatives are anticipated to have contributed well to top-line growth of the segment in the first quarter.</p>\n<p>Moreover, the company’s collaboration with Italian luxury brands Prada and MiuMiu, which bolstered its omni-channel efforts, might have been a positive.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, growing momentum of JD health that offers free online medical consultation and online pharmacy retail services is likely to get reflected in the company’s to-be-reported quarter’s results.</p>\n<p>Growing investments in research and development are also likely to have been encouraging for the company in the quarter under review.</p>\n<p>Additionally, the new businesses segment comprising technology, supply chain and logistics services is expected to have helped it in gaining traction across lower-tier cities in the first quarter.</p>\n<p>Moreover, the well-performing Jingxi Business Group is expected to have aided JD.com’s performance in the lower-tier cities.</p>\n<p>However, increasing fulfilment, marketing, and research and development expenses are likely to have been major risks to the company’s profitability in the quarter under review.</p>\n<p>Moreover, increasing competitive pressure from Alibaba in the e-commerce market might be reflected in first-quarter results.</p>\n<p><b>What Our Model Says</b></p>\n<p>Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for JD.com this time around. The combination of a positiveEarnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with ourEarnings ESP Filter.</p>\n<p>JD.com has an Earnings ESP of -14.83% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), at present.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD.com to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD.com to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-18 21:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1541348/jdcom-jd-to-report-q1-earnings-whats-in-the-cards?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID02-txt-1541348><strong>Zacks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>JD.com, Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.\nFor the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $29.9 billion, indicating an improvement of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1541348/jdcom-jd-to-report-q1-earnings-whats-in-the-cards?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID02-txt-1541348\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1541348/jdcom-jd-to-report-q1-earnings-whats-in-the-cards?art_rec=quote-stock_overview-zacks_news-ID02-txt-1541348","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135161248","content_text":"JD.com, Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 19.\nFor the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $29.9 billion, indicating an improvement of 44.9% from the year-ago reported figure.\nFurther, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, indicating a 39.3% rise from the previous-year reported figure.\nNotably, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.6% in the last reported quarter.\nJD.com, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise\nJD.com, Inc. price-eps-surprise | JD.com, Inc. Quote\nKey Factors to Note\nThe company’s JD Retail segment, comprising the e-commerce business, is expected to have been the key catalyst in the first quarter.\nThe launch of flagship stores of popular fashion and luxury brands like John Lobb, Stefano Ricci, Vivienne Westwoodon and Anya Hindmarch, among others, on JD.com is likely to have driven customer momentum, which in turn is expected to have aided the performance of JD Retail during the quarter-to-be-reported.\nJD retail’s omni-channel initiatives are anticipated to have contributed well to top-line growth of the segment in the first quarter.\nMoreover, the company’s collaboration with Italian luxury brands Prada and MiuMiu, which bolstered its omni-channel efforts, might have been a positive.\nFurthermore, growing momentum of JD health that offers free online medical consultation and online pharmacy retail services is likely to get reflected in the company’s to-be-reported quarter’s results.\nGrowing investments in research and development are also likely to have been encouraging for the company in the quarter under review.\nAdditionally, the new businesses segment comprising technology, supply chain and logistics services is expected to have helped it in gaining traction across lower-tier cities in the first quarter.\nMoreover, the well-performing Jingxi Business Group is expected to have aided JD.com’s performance in the lower-tier cities.\nHowever, increasing fulfilment, marketing, and research and development expenses are likely to have been major risks to the company’s profitability in the quarter under review.\nMoreover, increasing competitive pressure from Alibaba in the e-commerce market might be reflected in first-quarter results.\nWhat Our Model Says\nOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for JD.com this time around. The combination of a positiveEarnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with ourEarnings ESP Filter.\nJD.com has an Earnings ESP of -14.83% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), at present.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323042422,"gmtCreate":1615293519666,"gmtModify":1704780706243,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323042422","repostId":"1115541540","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321765898723472,"gmtCreate":1719586754193,"gmtModify":1719588604644,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20241220 250.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20241220 250.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20241220 250.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20241220 250.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$TSLA 20241220 250.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26c11b0eb80fe64566816011543d52a3","width":"927","height":"1599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321765898723472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197879228,"gmtCreate":1621448594264,"gmtModify":1704357799592,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197879228","repostId":"1103552481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103552481","pubTimestamp":1621428667,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103552481?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 20:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103552481","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but inv","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.</p>\n<p>The minutes are due out at 2 p.m. today, and Fed watchers may face a greater challenge than usual in deciphering their significance:&nbsp; A lot has changed in the economy since the April 28-29 meeting. The ensuing weeks have brought a&nbsp;surprisingly weak jobs report&nbsp;and a&nbsp;stronger-than-expected consumer inflation report, for example.</p>\n<p>And unlike&nbsp;last month’s meeting, there wasn’t an attention-grabbing selloff in Treasuries to command officials’ attention. The steep climb in yields abated at the end of March, even as economic data showed and stronger price pressures in April.&nbsp;The 10-year yield has&nbsp;dropped to 1.64%&nbsp;from 1.74% on March 31.</p>\n<p>Yet the document may still provide some clues about the central bank’s views. And officials have provided more perspective on policy since the latest meeting as well. Notably, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida spoke at a conference on Monday and discussed some recent economic data points as well.</p>\n<p>Here’s what strategists expect out of the meeting today, and what Clarida said about the topics:</p>\n<p><b>“Attuned and Attentive” to “Transitory” Inflation?</b></p>\n<p>One popular line among Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has been the assurance that this spring is expected to bring a “transitory” rise in inflation, mostly related to the reopening of the U.S. economy after the pandemic brought a sharp deceleration in activity last year.</p>\n<p>Mizuho economists Steven Ricchiuto and Alex Pelle wrote in a May 18 note that they expect “several mentions of ‘transitory’ price pressures” in the minutes. They also highlighted that many of the steepest increases in consumer prices in April were in sectors where demand had been hit most by the pandemic, such as hotels and airfares. “So far [that] validates the Fed’s thinking,” they added.</p>\n<p>Yet at Monday’s conference, Clarida seemed to be repeating a different type of assurance about inflation:&nbsp; That the central bank would be “attuned and attentive” to any data showing higher price pressures.</p>\n<p>“In the CPI report, [reopening] did clearly put upward pressure on prices. Now our baseline view is that most of this is likely to be transitory, but we have to be attuned and attentive to the incoming data,” he said. “[The] key element of our mandate is price stability and an important component of price stability is well-anchored inflation expectations. If we were to see upward pressure on prices or inflation that threatened to put inflation expectations higher, I have no doubt we would use our tools to address that situation.”</p>\n<p><b>Taper Timeline</b></p>\n<p>Investors will also be looking to see if the central bank provides any additional guidance on when it might start paring back its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. Powell has said the Fed wants to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals of full employment and a long-term average of 2% inflation before it wants to pare down its purchases, but officials haven’t provided much additional guidance.</p>\n<p>Most on Wall Street expect the Fed to discuss longer-term plans to reduce, or taper, its purchases&nbsp;late this summer or during the fall. NatWest Markets said in a Monday note that it expects the Fed to start talking about tapering its purchases in September and actually start to reduce the pace of bond-buying next year.</p>\n<p>So any more detailed discussion in the latest meeting minutes could come as a surprise to investors and potentially matter for markets.</p>\n<p><b>Labor-Market Outlook</b></p>\n<p>One key factor that will determine the outlook for the Fed’s bond buying (and other accommodation) is the recovery in the labor market. And that remains up in the air, after the disappointing April jobs report.</p>\n<p>Still, there is a chance investors could find more context on one of their questions in the minutes:&nbsp; How much improvement will be enough for the Fed to start withdrawing accommodation? In other words, what does “substantial further progress” mean?</p>\n<p>Before the disappointing news on April’s labor market, most of Wall Street expected a strong month for jobs creation, another step toward the “string” of strong months of recovery that Powell had said was needed before the U.S. achieved “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goals. That may have prompted officials to discuss just how far along the recovery would need to go before the central bank could start stepping back.</p>\n<p>Clarida discussed the April employment report on Monday as well.</p>\n<p>“What the April employment report said to me is that the way we bring supply and demand into balance in the labor market, especially in the service sector, may take some time and may produce some upward pressure on prices as workers return to employment, so we have to be attuned and attentive to that data flow,” he said. “Per that April employment report, we have not made substantial further progress, but as the data comes in we as a committee will have to evaluate that, and ultimately make a judgment.”</p>\n<p>Ultimately, the importance of future labor-market data hints at the broader takeaway from the Fed’s meeting minutes:&nbsp; Coming months’ economic data may be the final arbiter of what the Fed does, and its plans to remove accommodation from markets and the economy. And the&nbsp;economic data has been so volatile&nbsp;during the reopening that the picture could change significantly by the time the Fed meets again in June.</p>\n<p>That means investors will have to hold tight for a while longer to get a sense of when the central bank plans to start stepping back.</p>\n<p>“We’re reluctant to call this an equilibrium of any sort – rather it’s much more likely to prove a temporary holding pattern as macro expectations are further refined,” wrote Ian Lyngen, strategist with BMO. “Clearly, we have more questions than answers.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 20:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-and-more-to-watch-for-in-todays-fed-minutes-release-51621421812?mod=hp_LEAD_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.\nThe minutes are due out at 2 p.m. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-and-more-to-watch-for-in-todays-fed-minutes-release-51621421812?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-and-more-to-watch-for-in-todays-fed-minutes-release-51621421812?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103552481","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.\nThe minutes are due out at 2 p.m. today, and Fed watchers may face a greater challenge than usual in deciphering their significance:  A lot has changed in the economy since the April 28-29 meeting. The ensuing weeks have brought a surprisingly weak jobs report and a stronger-than-expected consumer inflation report, for example.\nAnd unlike last month’s meeting, there wasn’t an attention-grabbing selloff in Treasuries to command officials’ attention. The steep climb in yields abated at the end of March, even as economic data showed and stronger price pressures in April. The 10-year yield has dropped to 1.64% from 1.74% on March 31.\nYet the document may still provide some clues about the central bank’s views. And officials have provided more perspective on policy since the latest meeting as well. Notably, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida spoke at a conference on Monday and discussed some recent economic data points as well.\nHere’s what strategists expect out of the meeting today, and what Clarida said about the topics:\n“Attuned and Attentive” to “Transitory” Inflation?\nOne popular line among Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has been the assurance that this spring is expected to bring a “transitory” rise in inflation, mostly related to the reopening of the U.S. economy after the pandemic brought a sharp deceleration in activity last year.\nMizuho economists Steven Ricchiuto and Alex Pelle wrote in a May 18 note that they expect “several mentions of ‘transitory’ price pressures” in the minutes. They also highlighted that many of the steepest increases in consumer prices in April were in sectors where demand had been hit most by the pandemic, such as hotels and airfares. “So far [that] validates the Fed’s thinking,” they added.\nYet at Monday’s conference, Clarida seemed to be repeating a different type of assurance about inflation:  That the central bank would be “attuned and attentive” to any data showing higher price pressures.\n“In the CPI report, [reopening] did clearly put upward pressure on prices. Now our baseline view is that most of this is likely to be transitory, but we have to be attuned and attentive to the incoming data,” he said. “[The] key element of our mandate is price stability and an important component of price stability is well-anchored inflation expectations. If we were to see upward pressure on prices or inflation that threatened to put inflation expectations higher, I have no doubt we would use our tools to address that situation.”\nTaper Timeline\nInvestors will also be looking to see if the central bank provides any additional guidance on when it might start paring back its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. Powell has said the Fed wants to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals of full employment and a long-term average of 2% inflation before it wants to pare down its purchases, but officials haven’t provided much additional guidance.\nMost on Wall Street expect the Fed to discuss longer-term plans to reduce, or taper, its purchases late this summer or during the fall. NatWest Markets said in a Monday note that it expects the Fed to start talking about tapering its purchases in September and actually start to reduce the pace of bond-buying next year.\nSo any more detailed discussion in the latest meeting minutes could come as a surprise to investors and potentially matter for markets.\nLabor-Market Outlook\nOne key factor that will determine the outlook for the Fed’s bond buying (and other accommodation) is the recovery in the labor market. And that remains up in the air, after the disappointing April jobs report.\nStill, there is a chance investors could find more context on one of their questions in the minutes:  How much improvement will be enough for the Fed to start withdrawing accommodation? In other words, what does “substantial further progress” mean?\nBefore the disappointing news on April’s labor market, most of Wall Street expected a strong month for jobs creation, another step toward the “string” of strong months of recovery that Powell had said was needed before the U.S. achieved “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goals. That may have prompted officials to discuss just how far along the recovery would need to go before the central bank could start stepping back.\nClarida discussed the April employment report on Monday as well.\n“What the April employment report said to me is that the way we bring supply and demand into balance in the labor market, especially in the service sector, may take some time and may produce some upward pressure on prices as workers return to employment, so we have to be attuned and attentive to that data flow,” he said. “Per that April employment report, we have not made substantial further progress, but as the data comes in we as a committee will have to evaluate that, and ultimately make a judgment.”\nUltimately, the importance of future labor-market data hints at the broader takeaway from the Fed’s meeting minutes:  Coming months’ economic data may be the final arbiter of what the Fed does, and its plans to remove accommodation from markets and the economy. And the economic data has been so volatile during the reopening that the picture could change significantly by the time the Fed meets again in June.\nThat means investors will have to hold tight for a while longer to get a sense of when the central bank plans to start stepping back.\n“We’re reluctant to call this an equilibrium of any sort – rather it’s much more likely to prove a temporary holding pattern as macro expectations are further refined,” wrote Ian Lyngen, strategist with BMO. “Clearly, we have more questions than answers.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196443256,"gmtCreate":1621101531175,"gmtModify":1704352893142,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196443256","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163454382","pubTimestamp":1621004581,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163454382?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163454382","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million. First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinat","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What happened</b></p>\n<p>A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p>\n<p><b>So what</b></p>\n<p>Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p>\n<p>First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p>\n<p>This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p>\n<p><b>Now what</b></p>\n<p>Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p>\n<p>Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-14 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163454382","content_text":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million\nFirst, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.\nThis should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.\nNow what\nLower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.\nVaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335522393285032,"gmtCreate":1722953114220,"gmtModify":1722953724194,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/QQQ 20240816 470.0 CALL\">$QQQ 20240816 470.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/QQQ 20240816 470.0 CALL\">$QQQ 20240816 470.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$QQQ 20240816 470.0 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20240722 555.0 PUT\">$SPY 20240722 555.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$SPY 20240722 555.0 PUT$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329294786474040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329288554283304,"gmtCreate":1721398383959,"gmtModify":1721398858723,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"title":"Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins","htmlText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2024/trading-guess?inviteId=DJYVDOOA&amp;banner=0&amp;feature=Message&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=087b488194aa974bcb8fc84d7f73883b&amp;invite=EAMUJY&amp;lang=en_US\">Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins</a> Join the Guessing Game , find high-yield Sharers! 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Win up to 50000 Tiger Coins.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b7f90833b0728cadecb5cb81220f1d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329288554283304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":49,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311734642721080,"gmtCreate":1717132901737,"gmtModify":1717132904611,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20240603 527.0 PUT\">$SPY 20240603 527.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SPY 20240603 527.0 PUT\">$SPY 20240603 527.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$SPY 20240603 527.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e546d4bcba2e720c140ed5ef61e1466a","width":"927","height":"1598"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311734642721080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":82,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197879420,"gmtCreate":1621448629460,"gmtModify":1704357799918,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Speechless]&nbsp;","listText":"[Speechless]&nbsp;","text":"[Speechless]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197879420","repostId":"2136910021","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2136910021","pubTimestamp":1621437633,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2136910021?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks for the Next Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136910021","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A roaring bear market just might be your best chance to buy strong businesses at cheap prices.","content":"<p>Bear markets can be an incredible time to pick up stocks at a bargain. When panic grips Wall Street, even strong businesses with solid balance sheets and tremendous long-term prospects can get taken down with the overall trend. Still, the strongest companies are often the ones that come back the fastest once the bear market passes. That makes it important for you to have a plan in place in advance, so that you know where you want to hunt when deals are available.</p>\n<p>If you follow this strategy, know that you're in good company. Bargain hunting during a bear market is a strategy that Warren Buffett has used successfully throughout his investing career. Indeed, he profited handsomely during the financial crisis of 2008 by having both the cash and the wherewithal to buy strong companies while so many others were panicking. With that in mind, here are three stocks that are certainly worth considering for your potential buy list during the next bear market.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d281366568e2abc4b9b6f19f91018748\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: The Motley Fool.</span></p>\n<h2>1. Buffett's own bargain-hunting powerhouse</h2>\n<p>There's an old saying in business and investing that if you can't beat them, buy them. With that in mind, what better business to look to potentially buy at a bargain price than Buffett's own <b>Berkshire Hathaway </b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)? After all, there is nobody better at bargain hunting than Buffett, and he is likely training his successors at the company to be able to follow in those footsteps as well.</p>\n<p>Although Berkshire Hathaway's fundamental business and balance sheet are likely always going to be strong, there's a good chance that its stock might get knocked down in the next bear market. This is because mark-to-market accounting forces it to record earnings or losses based on the changes in value in its investment portfolio. As a result, if the stocks it owns drop in value, it may have to record an accounting loss, even if the underlying businesses it operates continue to generate cash.</p>\n<p>That could cause Berkshire Hathaway to fall during a general market panic, driven by investors and algorithms that don't look past the headline numbers and into the fundamental health of the company. If that happens, it could very well be the <i>perfect </i>company to buy during a bear market. After all, if it is sweeping up bargains with its cash pile while its own stock is down, then investors who buy its stock could benefit from a rebound when those mark-to-market losses reverse.</p>\n<h2>2. A tech titan whose products people pay a premium to own</h2>\n<p><b>Apple </b>(NASDAQ:AAPL) is well known for being able to charge premium prices for its hardware.&nbsp;That's wonderful news for shareholders in a strong economy, but it also means that consumers feeling the pinch may choose to hold off on upgrading during tougher economic times. That risk means that Apple could see its stock decline a bit more than otherwise might be expected during a bear market.</p>\n<p>Apple has a wonderfully strong balance sheet, with more between cash on hand and receivables than it owes in total debt. That means that it can withstand even a punishing recession and bear market and still have a very strong chance of emerging in good shape.</p>\n<p>The challenge with buying Apple's shares today is that it has a market capitalization over $2 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio above 28. As a result, it is quite possible that much of its future growth may already be priced into its shares.</p>\n<p>Apple is an incredibly solid company, and it's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> that might look mighty tempting at a cheaper valuation. It might take a pretty substantial bear market to get that opportunity. If the upside of a bear market is the chance to buy a great company at a decent price, then the potential longer-term gain just might be worth the short-term pain.</p>\n<h2>3. A Civil War-era infrastructure leader that's still relevant today</h2>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F627670%2Ftrain-on-a-bridge-gettyimages-512683154.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p><b>Union Pacific </b>(NYSE:UNP) was founded in 1862, as the U.S. Civil War was raging.&nbsp;It's a testament to just how critical railroad infrastructure was even back then that the legislation enabling its creation was signed into law as the country was tearing itself apart. That the company has survived over a century and a half showcases how relevant railroads remain today.</p>\n<p>After all, products still need to be transported from where they're made to where they're used, and railroads tend to be a fairly cost-effective way of doing just that. The continued demand for its services makes Union Pacific a company worth considering for a long-term investment. The challenge, though, is that since the value of its infrastructure is well known, thanks to the recent strong market, its shares are not exactly cheap. In fact, those shares trade at more than 23 times the company's anticipated earnings.</p>\n<p>At a price like that, it's hard to justify adding to an investment in Union Pacific, even though the business looks capable of remaining solid well into the future. Still, should a bear market come knocking and take the company's stock down, its long history and strong infrastructure role makes Union Pacific worth considering at a more reasonable price.</p>\n<h2>When a bear market comes roaring, bargains abound</h2>\n<p>It's easy to invest when stocks are rising strongly. When a bear market comes roaring and your investments start to tank, it's a lot harder to keep your head about you. Knowing in advance what strong companies you'd love to buy if their shares got cheaper during a market crash is a great way to keep your wits about you. It can help you take advantage of the bargains that only come around during a panic to help you potentially build some incredible long-term wealth.</p>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway, Apple, and Union Pacific all stand out as very strong companies that look capable of surviving the next bear market and emerging even stronger on the other side. If you keep an eye out for them to become bargain-priced, during the next bear market you just might find yourself with an opportunity to buy some great businesses at very reasonable prices.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks for the Next Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks for the Next Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-19 23:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/19/3-stocks-for-the-next-bear-market/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bear markets can be an incredible time to pick up stocks at a bargain. When panic grips Wall Street, even strong businesses with solid balance sheets and tremendous long-term prospects can get taken ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/19/3-stocks-for-the-next-bear-market/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","UNP":"联合太平洋","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/19/3-stocks-for-the-next-bear-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2136910021","content_text":"Bear markets can be an incredible time to pick up stocks at a bargain. When panic grips Wall Street, even strong businesses with solid balance sheets and tremendous long-term prospects can get taken down with the overall trend. Still, the strongest companies are often the ones that come back the fastest once the bear market passes. That makes it important for you to have a plan in place in advance, so that you know where you want to hunt when deals are available.\nIf you follow this strategy, know that you're in good company. Bargain hunting during a bear market is a strategy that Warren Buffett has used successfully throughout his investing career. Indeed, he profited handsomely during the financial crisis of 2008 by having both the cash and the wherewithal to buy strong companies while so many others were panicking. With that in mind, here are three stocks that are certainly worth considering for your potential buy list during the next bear market.\nImage source: The Motley Fool.\n1. Buffett's own bargain-hunting powerhouse\nThere's an old saying in business and investing that if you can't beat them, buy them. With that in mind, what better business to look to potentially buy at a bargain price than Buffett's own Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)? After all, there is nobody better at bargain hunting than Buffett, and he is likely training his successors at the company to be able to follow in those footsteps as well.\nAlthough Berkshire Hathaway's fundamental business and balance sheet are likely always going to be strong, there's a good chance that its stock might get knocked down in the next bear market. This is because mark-to-market accounting forces it to record earnings or losses based on the changes in value in its investment portfolio. As a result, if the stocks it owns drop in value, it may have to record an accounting loss, even if the underlying businesses it operates continue to generate cash.\nThat could cause Berkshire Hathaway to fall during a general market panic, driven by investors and algorithms that don't look past the headline numbers and into the fundamental health of the company. If that happens, it could very well be the perfect company to buy during a bear market. After all, if it is sweeping up bargains with its cash pile while its own stock is down, then investors who buy its stock could benefit from a rebound when those mark-to-market losses reverse.\n2. A tech titan whose products people pay a premium to own\nApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is well known for being able to charge premium prices for its hardware. That's wonderful news for shareholders in a strong economy, but it also means that consumers feeling the pinch may choose to hold off on upgrading during tougher economic times. That risk means that Apple could see its stock decline a bit more than otherwise might be expected during a bear market.\nApple has a wonderfully strong balance sheet, with more between cash on hand and receivables than it owes in total debt. That means that it can withstand even a punishing recession and bear market and still have a very strong chance of emerging in good shape.\nThe challenge with buying Apple's shares today is that it has a market capitalization over $2 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio above 28. As a result, it is quite possible that much of its future growth may already be priced into its shares.\nApple is an incredibly solid company, and it's one that might look mighty tempting at a cheaper valuation. It might take a pretty substantial bear market to get that opportunity. If the upside of a bear market is the chance to buy a great company at a decent price, then the potential longer-term gain just might be worth the short-term pain.\n3. A Civil War-era infrastructure leader that's still relevant today\nImage source: Getty Images.\nUnion Pacific (NYSE:UNP) was founded in 1862, as the U.S. Civil War was raging. It's a testament to just how critical railroad infrastructure was even back then that the legislation enabling its creation was signed into law as the country was tearing itself apart. That the company has survived over a century and a half showcases how relevant railroads remain today.\nAfter all, products still need to be transported from where they're made to where they're used, and railroads tend to be a fairly cost-effective way of doing just that. The continued demand for its services makes Union Pacific a company worth considering for a long-term investment. The challenge, though, is that since the value of its infrastructure is well known, thanks to the recent strong market, its shares are not exactly cheap. In fact, those shares trade at more than 23 times the company's anticipated earnings.\nAt a price like that, it's hard to justify adding to an investment in Union Pacific, even though the business looks capable of remaining solid well into the future. Still, should a bear market come knocking and take the company's stock down, its long history and strong infrastructure role makes Union Pacific worth considering at a more reasonable price.\nWhen a bear market comes roaring, bargains abound\nIt's easy to invest when stocks are rising strongly. When a bear market comes roaring and your investments start to tank, it's a lot harder to keep your head about you. Knowing in advance what strong companies you'd love to buy if their shares got cheaper during a market crash is a great way to keep your wits about you. It can help you take advantage of the bargains that only come around during a panic to help you potentially build some incredible long-term wealth.\nBerkshire Hathaway, Apple, and Union Pacific all stand out as very strong companies that look capable of surviving the next bear market and emerging even stronger on the other side. If you keep an eye out for them to become bargain-priced, during the next bear market you just might find yourself with an opportunity to buy some great businesses at very reasonable prices.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196443627,"gmtCreate":1621101502169,"gmtModify":1704352892819,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebdae15d593a5b004bcabfd1d0c3e267","width":"1125","height":"3068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196443627","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323042345,"gmtCreate":1615293426687,"gmtModify":1704780705247,"author":{"id":"3571720342866771","authorId":"3571720342866771","name":"Liting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2a223b61fe40fef0583579fd70026","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571720342866771","authorIdStr":"3571720342866771"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$$","listText":"$$","text":"$$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323042345","repostId":"1123435119","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123435119","pubTimestamp":1615289149,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123435119?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-09 19:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Spotify Is Rocking And Rolling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123435119","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe February 2021 Stream On event explains that Spotify’s future is exciting!\nLike Amazon, ","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The February 2021 Stream On event explains that Spotify’s future is exciting!</li>\n <li>Like Amazon, Spotify focuses on growth and FCF as opposed to reported accrual earnings.</li>\n <li>There are now over 60,000 tracks delivered to Spotify every day!</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>My thesis is that Spotify (SPOT) is well-positioned to continue being the leader in audio as the world changes. Co-founder and CEO Daniel Ek is special. Following former CFO Barry McCarthy, current CFO Paul Vogel has big shoes to fill and I think he is up to the challenge.</p>\n<p>Spotify reports their financials in euros. At the time of this writing, $1 equals €0.84.</p>\n<p><b>Stream On</b></p>\n<p>It has been nearly 3 years since Spotify’s March 2018 Investor Day and it was nice to get some updates at Spotify’s February 2021 Stream Onevent.</p>\n<p>Global Co-Head of Music Jeremy Erlich noted that there are now over 60,000 tracks delivered to Spotify every day! The Spotify library contains over 70 million tracks, 4.5 billion playlists and more than 2 million podcasts per Chief R&amp;D Officer Gustav Söderström.</p>\n<p>Chief Content &amp; Advertising Business Officer Dawn Ostroff said there are now over 7,500 artists at Spotify generating more than $100,000 per year. She noted that in the U.S. consumers spend about the same amount of time listening to digital audio as they do watching digital video (over 9 hours per week). She added that digital audio advertising has lagged digital video advertising and that terrestrial and satellite radio are a $30 billion ad industry without the insights of modern advertising.</p>\n<p>Noting that advertisers are flying blind when podcast consumption is based on downloads, she revealed that Spotify’s shift to streaming unlocks missing data. Spotify’s Ad Insertion [SAI] has become one of their most in-demand ad tools as it lets advertisers reach the right audiences and understand the impact of their ads.</p>\n<p>CEO Ek said there were 3 million creators on Spotify 3 years ago and by the end of 2020 it was up to 8 million! He thinks there could be as many as 50 million creators by 2025! He emphasized that Spotify has a head start in audio of more than a decade and that this advantage gives them tremendous data, insights and experiences along with unrivaled size and scale. Spotify’s head start reminds me of what Bill Mesce Jr. said about HBO’s head start over Showtime in his<i>Inside the Rise of HBO</i>book:</p>\n<blockquote>\n It was a head start Showtime never overcame. By the late 1980s, HBO had a brand recognition level in the same league as Coca-Cola, meaning you had to have been living in a cave since 1972 not to know what HBO was. HBO had become so identified in the public mind with cable TV that many cable customers thought HBO and their cable company were the same thing!\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n [Location: 1,307]\n</blockquote>\n<p>The early leader has more advantages than just brand recognition. At the March 2018Investor Daythen CFO Barry McCarthy noted that the older subscription companies have an edge over newer subscription companies because older companies have lower average churn rates such that they can beat newer companies like a drum.</p>\n<p>I believe these updates are very encouraging as they show that Spotify has tremendous momentum. The fact that 60,000 songs are updated daily vs. just 20,000 2 years ago shows that the music industry is changing and the old ways of doing things with the labels are fading quickly. The large number of artists and listeners is a powerful combination and no one wants to be left out of the Spotify ecosystem.</p>\n<p><b>Stream On Investor Discussion</b></p>\n<p>The slides during the investordiscussionat the end of Stream On were very helpful.</p>\n<p>CEO Ek says the mission guides everything they do at Spotify:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4303c60b8f5981ea05099664de42cf1c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>When thinking about the mission, CEO Ek says we should keep their 4 pillars in mind. They are Create, Grow, Engage and Monetize. He says to keep these pillars in mind when thinking about all the Stream On announcements:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04f00cb996e32f33ff48ba72f2f505f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>There are 2 interlocking flywheels and Spotify is the facilitator in the middle. On the Creator side the Owned &amp; Exclusive [O&amp;E] podcast portfolio is becoming more important:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ccd066e55490a8acdd51e0f0d4bfb71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>Spotify shows that they have come a long way since the 2008 launch now that they have 345 million monthly active users [MAUs], 155 million premium subscribers, annual revenue of €7.9 billion and a gross margin of 26%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d78b9d290608d299e3230657b30488\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ff9c728e95d3cb19da3cd33bbdf0baf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"503\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>Spotify is already the leader for music streaming and they want to be the podcast leader as well. It can be dangerous for investors when new companies have rosy projections for the total addressable market [TAM] but we see from the slide above that Spotify is not a new company; they have proven themselves with music streaming and they have credibility with other audio ambitions:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1307809b7284693e1fd2bcee0b23c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>This data in the TAM slides is from a number of sources including a Goldman Sachs research report. Spotify is already at about 40% market share for music streaming. They want to take share in paid audio and podcasting such that they reach a level of 1/3rd to 40% of market share in those spaces. CEO Ek says the overall audio market will be vastly different in 2030:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb1ab14618249fd3cb9f76345ebd534\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"682\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>CEO Ek makes the following observations about the slide above:</p>\n<p>1. Audio is a fast growing market.</p>\n<p>2. Radio is going from a gigantic business to a smaller part of the audio space.</p>\n<p>3. Music streaming, podcasting and paid audio benefit as terrestrial radio is unbundled.</p>\n<p>He goes on to note that by 2030 music streaming should triple from $25 billion in annual revenue to $75 billion. By 2030 paid audio and podcasting should combine to be about $55 billion in annual revenue. As such, Spotify will be vying for a share of $130 billion in annual revenue. They want to have 1/3rd to 40% share so that could be $44 billion to $52 billion in annual revenue from music streaming, paid audio and podcasting. It’s a bit confusing because the slides are in $ but Spotify reports in €. Either way, the opportunity is vast. Speaking of paid audio, the Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) 202010-Kshows free cash flow of $1.7 billion on revenue of $8 billion for a margin of over 20%!</p>\n<p>Spotify CFO Vogel shows that they expect long term revenue growth to be 20%+. He then explains why they decided to increase the upper end of the long term gross margin range from 35% to 40%. In other words, the gross margin range shifted up from 30-35% in the Investor Day slides to 30-40% in the Stream On slides. The operating margin objective is 10%+ where R&amp;D should continue to see heavy investments but leverage should be obtained with sales/marketing and G&amp;A:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a217d0c4cac08a9a3feabd17aea83999\" tg-width=\"438\" tg-height=\"321\"><span>Image Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion</span></p>\n<p>CFO Vogel reiterated 2021 guidance with respect to the full year:</p>\n<p>Total MAUs: 407 - 427 million</p>\n<p>Total Premium Subs: 172 - 184 million</p>\n<p>Total Revenue: €9.01 - €9.41 billion*</p>\n<p>*Assumes about 370 bps headwind due to foreign exchange</p>\n<p>Gross Margin: 23.7 - 25.7%</p>\n<p>Operating Loss: €(300) - €(200) million</p>\n<p>Showing the last slide, CFO Vogel recapped some of the large Stream On announcements:</p>\n<p>New Markets Expansion</p>\n<p>HiFi</p>\n<p>New Owned &amp; Exclusive (“O&amp;E”) Content</p>\n<p>New Anchor Features</p>\n<p>Spotify Audience Network</p>\n<p>Ad Studio For Podcasting</p>\n<p>SAI Expansion</p>\n<p>Sponsored Recommendation Expansion</p>\n<p>Discovery Mode Early Results</p>\n<p>The first 4 announcements above impact both consumers and creators. The New Markets Expansion means the 85 new markets will bring the global total up to 170+. President Obama and Bruce Springsteen are highlighted with the new O&amp;E content. The New Anchor Features make it easier for WordPress bloggers to become podcasters. Aimed at creators, the last 5 announcements are the right types of tools that are needed as the world changes. Spotify Audience Network, Ad Studio For Podcasting and SAI Expansion are in the advertising category. Sponsored Recommendation Expansion and Discovery Mode Early Results are in the marketplace category.</p>\n<p>These slides left a meaningful impact on me as they show that Spotify is well positioned to be the dominant company in a growing audio world. The foundation is being laid down such that Spotify should have a substantial portion of the $130 billion TAM in 2030.</p>\n<p><b>Stream On Q&amp;A</b></p>\n<p>CEO Ek and CFO Vogel held a helpful Q&amp;A session following the Stream On investor discussion.</p>\n<p>CFO Vogel said they expect “significant growth” in marketplace contribution to gross profit in 2021 and we know this is accretive to gross margin. CEO Ek made encouraging statements with margins as well by saying the #1 question from artists is about things they can do to be heard while the #1 question from consumers is how they can discover more content. This double-sided coin allows Spotify to create more efficient ways for creators and consumers to meet. In forming these relationships Spotify gets compensated in a manner that is accretive to margins.</p>\n<p>Regarding the 2030 revenue opportunity, a question was asked about the potential mix between subscription and advertising. CEO Ek responded by saying advertising will increase from today’s level of 10% vs 90% subscription. Referencing the $130 billion TAM, CEO Ek stated that advertising can be between 20 and 40% of the revenue mix. He also mentioned the transactional or a la carte part.</p>\n<p>A question was asked about getting to 50 million creators. Mentioning the internationalization of audiences, CEO Ek remarked that 80% of Spotify creators have audiences outside of their home countries. He went on to talk about the New Anchor Features announcement which revealed that vloggers can now create podcasts with 1 click.</p>\n<p>Following this Q&amp;A, it’s clear to me that Spotify will have a unique role in the future of audio as there has never been a company in a position to have 50 million artists to go along with hundreds of millions of listeners.</p>\n<p><b>Streaming Is Crucial For The Music Industry</b></p>\n<p>I believe there has been some mendacity in the past with respect to just how much the labels depend on Spotify but that seems to be changing. The 202010-Kfor Warner Music Group (WMG) shows that streaming is more important than ever for the music industry:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f5c127e386be593a686957c01755885\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\"><span>Image Source: Warner Music Group 10-K</span></p>\n<p>The Warner Music Group 10-K goes on to show the importance of their relationship with Spotify. The Digital/streaming segment is prodigious and it is still growing! It was 51% of overall revenue or $2.3 billion/$4.5 billion in 2019 and 58% or $2.6 billion/$4.5 billion in 2020.</p>\n<p>The Vivendi (OTCPK:VIVEF) Full Year 2020Resultsshow the importance of streaming for their Universal Music Group subsidiary:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2219ce9b68792547ed18b325902e035a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>Image Source: Vivendi Full Year 2020 Results</span></p>\n<p>The Vivendi Full Year 2020 Results show streaming and subscriptions were 46% of Universal Music Group revenue or €3.3 billion/€7.2 billion in 2019 and 51% or €3.8 billion/€7.4 billion in 2020.</p>\n<p>I’ve seen that analysts have questioned Spotify’s position with the labels but the labels themselves all say that the streaming market is growing and Spotify is the clear leader in this area.</p>\n<p><b>Independent Artists</b></p>\n<p>The Big 3 labels and Merlin are becoming a little less dominant every year as independent artists rise. The SpotifyF-1filing shows that the Big 3 labels and Merlin accounted for about 87% of music streams back in 2017. The 20-F filings and a MIDiAwriteupshow how that has changed since then:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2e736757796fabcbd3880c10b056f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Image Source: MIDiA</span></p>\n<p>The Big 3 labels and Merlin are dropping more noticeably as time goes on, losing 2 percentage points from 2017 to 2018, 3 points from 2018 to 2019 and 4 points from 2019 to 2020.</p>\n<p>GCAsays20,000 tracks were uploaded daily in 2018 and this went up to 40,000 daily in 2019. In the Stream On event Global Co-Head of Music Jeremy Erlich said it is now 60,000 daily! GCA shows that the number of independent artists on Spotify is growing rapidly:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351cbccd1ea0c815c1ac626adc7c0699\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"820\"><span>Image Source: GCA 4Q20 Report</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59977d4d1725c2e9b060afdd2f46e25\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"307\"><span>Image Source: GCA 4Q20 Report.</span></p>\n<p><i>I added red text to the GCA image above to note that Spotify now has 60K tracks updated daily and 22% of their streams are now from non-majors!</i></p>\n<p>It isn’t surprising that we see a higher percentage of independent artists each year as the idea of signing away lifetime royalties continues to be questioned more directly as time passes.</p>\n<p><b>User Growth</b></p>\n<p>Visual Capitalistshowsthat Spotify already has more than twice as many paid subs as either Apple Music (AAPL) or Amazon (AMZN):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58416f1db36b3fd8a8e3e2be84483587\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"930\"><span>Image Source: Visual Capitalist</span></p>\n<p>It isn’t just that Spotify has more paid subs than Apple and Amazon. Spotify users voraciously listen to streams and it is said that Spotify has more engagement per sub than Apple and Amazon.</p>\n<p>The Warner Music Group 10-K says that music streaming is still in the early stages of global adoption and penetration. Spotify was founded in Sweden and about 43% of the people there are paid music subs compared to 27% in the U.S., 18% in Germany and 8% in Japan. At the Stream On event Spotifyannouncedthat they are expanding to 80+ new markets:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3b034aeab1451a814675bcc97a0c2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1445\"><span>Image Source: Spotify newsroom</span></p>\n<p>The Spotify user number that I follow closest on the 202020-Fis the premium subscriber count:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef9dc4c8e8f7cfc1191cb232b43d1c1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"102\"><span>Image Source: 2020 20-F</span></p>\n<p>Their MAUs include both premium subs and ad-supported users. This overall number isn’t quite as important to me as premium subs at this time because the economics for ad-supported users aren’t great right now. I view the ad-supported service as a subsidy program that offsets the costs of new premium subs. MAUs grew from 207 million in 2018 to 271 million in 2019 and then they went up to 345 million in 2020.</p>\n<p>In the 2Q20callCEO Daniel Ek noted that they have a culture of experimentation, upping the number of A/B tests from a few hundred to thousands. He goes on to say that there is still a lot of pent-up demand for Spotify in markets around the world</p>\n<p>Apple’s aversion to advertising is a huge disadvantage in this space. I think Spotify will continue to have a large lead over Apple with respect to paid subs as Spotify can use the ad-based freemium model as a customer acquisition tool for the paid side. It isn’t a good sign for Apple that they stopped disclosing the number of paid subs.Statistashows that we needn’t worry much about competition from Apple Music in places like Brazil and India where iOS share is minimal:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b21e19d936e3c7ddd5070ef2260bf0c\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"399\"><span>Image Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>Amazon Music is disadvantaged in Latin America where MercadoLibre is the dominant online marketplace. Both Amazon and Apple have priorities other than audio whereas Spotify is focused in this area.</p>\n<p><b>Long Term Goal Of Revenue Growth 20%+</b></p>\n<p>Spotify revenue climbed about 29% from $5.26 billion in 2018 to $6.76 billion in 2019. It then went up over 16% in 2020 to $7.88 billion. The Y/Y growth rates for the 2018 to 2019 period and the 2019 to 2020 period are much closer when we view them through a lens that removes the foreign currency effect. In that case Y/Y growth from 2019 to 2020 slowed to 20% after being 26% from 2018 to 2019 per the 4Q20 shareholderletterand the 4Q19 shareholderletter, respectively. A red box has been added below to the Reconciliation of IFRS to Non-IFRS Results table below from the 4Q20 shareholder letter in order to emphasize the adjusted growth rate of 20%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef11b79ac7a694673caef8da4e19bc6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\"><span>Image Source: 4Q20 shareholder letter</span></p>\n<p>The 3Q20 letter and the 4Q20 letter say the depreciation of the USD vs. the euro was the primary driver behind the foreign currency effect.Trading Economicsshows the way the euro increased against the USD in 2020:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/796592a599eeacb95a672653df4a6452\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Image Source: Trading Economics</span></p>\n<p>Other factors explaining the lower revenue growth are the lower growth of premium subs, lower monthly average revenue per user [ARPU] due to things like family plans and lower monthly ARPU in some geographies. Monthly premium ARPU fell from €4.81 in 2018 to €4.72 in 2019 to €4.31 in 2020 but this is part of the market share strategy and they didn’t want to raise prices during the Covid-19 pandemic.</p>\n<p>Management explained during the Stream On event that they expect long term revenue growth to be 20%+ but their 2021 guidance appears to be below this percentage in part due to foreign exchange headwinds . I think they can get back to the 20%+ growth level starting with the 2021 to 2022 period.</p>\n<p><b>Long-Term Goal Of Gross Margin 30-40%</b></p>\n<p>Management put up a slide during the March 2018 Investor Day presentation saying they would eventually like to get to gross margins of 30-35%. Then CFO Barry McCarthy said explained the thought process:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Now if the investments we make in R&amp;D and content improve the overall user experience, and if, as a result of building our two-sided marketplace, we come to own discovery and demand creation for users and artists, then we expect the long-term margin structure of the business to evolve along the lines summarized on this slide.\n</blockquote>\n<p>In the 2Q20callCEO Daniel Ek answered a question about promoted songs saying that promotion/marketing has overtaken distribution as the most expensive cost for labels:</p>\n<blockquote>\n So if labels instead reinvest some of the portion of the marketing spend that they use to promote market artists on this platform natively, the result should be a lot better. You should see better results for consumers because they're getting more of what they actually like. You should see better results for artists and labels as well because they're able to grow their fans a lot better at more efficiently priced -- prices than, say, other advertising marketplaces or billboards that they've traditionally spent them on. And of course, for Spotify, it means a higher gross margin business as well.\n</blockquote>\n<p>This sounds a lot to me like Amazon telling their third-party merchants that they could improve marketplace results by advertising. And what we’ve seen with respect to advertising revenue at Amazon has been mind boggling. A footnote on their 202010-Ksays the “Other” segment that went from $10.1 billion in 2018 to $21.5 billion in 2020 is primarily advertising.</p>\n<p>The 2020 20-F reminds us that Spotify is in the discovery business and this is good for the gross margin:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Spotify is more than an audio streaming service. We are in the discovery business. Every day, fans from around the world trust our brand to guide them to music and entertainment that they would never have discovered on their own. If discovery drives delight, and delight drives engagement, and engagement drives discovery, we believe Spotify wins and so do our users.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The 4Q20 Warner Music Group earningscalltalked about one of the many ways in which Spotify can increase the gross margins. Jessica Ehrlich of BofA Merrill Lynch asked about Spotify’s marketing tools:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Spotify is testing a new discovery mode, which allows artists and labels to influence the songs selected by its algorithm by receiving a lower royalty payout. How does this feature affect your marketing strategy? And how do you think about the importance of marketing within that ecosystem or in DSPs in general versus marketing or promoting music through other channels?\n</blockquote>\n<p>Warner CEO Stephen Cooper answered by saying they experiment with marketing tools regularly. I believe there are many ways that Spotify can provide value in this area over the years and it’s hard to envision a future where this doesn’t work well for all parties involved.</p>\n<p>Ben Swinburne asked about Spotify raising the high end of their gross margin guidance to 40% at the March 2021 Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and TelecomConference. CFO Paul Vogel responded:</p>\n<blockquote>\n I mean for us, it's just the optionality of all the new initiatives and all the investments that we see over the next 3 to 5 years. And so if you think about the opportunity in podcast, and when you think about the opportunities in ad network, right? A couple of years ago, there really wasn't as much of a thought around us being and creating an advertising network. And now we think that's, obviously, something we're developing and building. And we think if it goes really well, there could be upside there to margins in initiatives like that. And there's obviously other things we're working on that we didn't even announce at Stream On in terms of products or innovations.\n</blockquote>\n<p>We haven’t even seen all the ways in which the gross margin will rise as the audio space continues to evolve.</p>\n<p><b>Long-Term Goal Of Operating Margin 10+%</b></p>\n<p>I don’t expect them to get to this level anytime soon given what then CFO Barry McCarthy said at the March 2018 Investor Day:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Growth, of course, has pressured our operating margins. And you should expect us to continue to invest in growth at the expense of operating profit, because we believe growth increases our enterprise value.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Now in some respects, this reminds me of my first 10 years at Netflix, when we transitioned from operating with a negative gross margin to operating with a 35% gross margin as the business scaled. And the point here is that scale can be a great enabler of margin expansion, particularly if you couple it with data insights to drive a better user interface, add a better content experience, and in the process come to own demand creation and the margin that comes with owning demand creation.\n</blockquote>\n<p>In the 4Q20 earningscalla question from Steven Cahall pointed out that the implied 2021 incremental operating margin is about 3%. His question was about meaningful margin expansion in the future. CFO Vogel answered by saying R&amp;D will continue to see heavy investment such that there won’t be much leveraging there. He went on to say that sales and marketing along with G&amp;A could see some leverage:</p>\n<blockquote>\n And then when you look at sort of sales and marketing, I think there are areas over time that we could be more efficient there, potentially on the marketing side we'll see them and also on the sales side as we add more automation into the ecosystem and more self-serve products and those types of things.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n And in the G&amp;A side as well. I mean it's a heavy lift first to go and be prepared to be a public company. And then as you continue to launch more and more markets, what you need to do from an infrastructure standpoint, obviously, there's some build-out there. But you can imagine over time, once we're in more markets where we want to be and where it is sufficient scale, you'll start to see leverage on the G&amp;A side as well.\n</blockquote>\n<p>CEO Ek chimed in during the 4Q20 call as well noting that it is expensive to go after billions of consumers around the world in the audio category. They also have to invest in tools for millions of creators and this hurts the operating margin:</p>\n<blockquote>\n And these are multiyear investments. Plus, of course, adding to the fact that we're producing our own content. We're pursuing exclusives. We're going into categories. We're going into new markets. Those are all the things that you're seeing in the P&amp;L coming through that we are doing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>CEO Ek went on to say that at a mature state, the business will look very different than the growth stage that they’re investing behind now.</p>\n<p>I try not to anchor on the current economics and I believe they can eventually get to 12 to 15% operating margins well into the future after the audio space has changed dramatically.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The midpoint of 2021 revenue guidance is 9.2 billion euros as there are foreign exchange headwinds. Management is aiming for 20%+ revenue growth in the long run. Starting with a base of 9.2 billion euros in 2021, if they can grow revenue at 20% then revenue should be close to 20 billion euros by 2025.</p>\n<p>If Spotify can have a steady-state operating margin of 12 to 15% by that time then operating earnings should be about 2.4 to 3 billion euros and if the company is valued at 25x that amount then we’re talking about a value of around 60 to 75 euros. Right now 1 euro equals $1.21 and if the exchange rate is similar in 2025 then this range will be equivalent to $73 to $91 billion. It’s hard to say what that is worth today but if it is around $55 billion then the 5 year CAGR range could be 6 to 11%.</p>\n<p>The enterprise value is fairly close to the market cap. The 2020 20-F shows 190,212,847 shares and the March 5th share price was $274.98 implying a market cap of $52.3 billion. I think the stock is reasonably priced as the $52.3 billion market cap is less than the $55 billion mentioned above.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Spotify Is Rocking And Rolling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpotify Is Rocking And Rolling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-09 19:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412401-spotify-is-rocking-and-rolling><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe February 2021 Stream On event explains that Spotify’s future is exciting!\nLike Amazon, Spotify focuses on growth and FCF as opposed to reported accrual earnings.\nThere are now over 60,000...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412401-spotify-is-rocking-and-rolling\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412401-spotify-is-rocking-and-rolling","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1123435119","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe February 2021 Stream On event explains that Spotify’s future is exciting!\nLike Amazon, Spotify focuses on growth and FCF as opposed to reported accrual earnings.\nThere are now over 60,000 tracks delivered to Spotify every day!\n\nIntroduction\nMy thesis is that Spotify (SPOT) is well-positioned to continue being the leader in audio as the world changes. Co-founder and CEO Daniel Ek is special. Following former CFO Barry McCarthy, current CFO Paul Vogel has big shoes to fill and I think he is up to the challenge.\nSpotify reports their financials in euros. At the time of this writing, $1 equals €0.84.\nStream On\nIt has been nearly 3 years since Spotify’s March 2018 Investor Day and it was nice to get some updates at Spotify’s February 2021 Stream Onevent.\nGlobal Co-Head of Music Jeremy Erlich noted that there are now over 60,000 tracks delivered to Spotify every day! The Spotify library contains over 70 million tracks, 4.5 billion playlists and more than 2 million podcasts per Chief R&D Officer Gustav Söderström.\nChief Content & Advertising Business Officer Dawn Ostroff said there are now over 7,500 artists at Spotify generating more than $100,000 per year. She noted that in the U.S. consumers spend about the same amount of time listening to digital audio as they do watching digital video (over 9 hours per week). She added that digital audio advertising has lagged digital video advertising and that terrestrial and satellite radio are a $30 billion ad industry without the insights of modern advertising.\nNoting that advertisers are flying blind when podcast consumption is based on downloads, she revealed that Spotify’s shift to streaming unlocks missing data. Spotify’s Ad Insertion [SAI] has become one of their most in-demand ad tools as it lets advertisers reach the right audiences and understand the impact of their ads.\nCEO Ek said there were 3 million creators on Spotify 3 years ago and by the end of 2020 it was up to 8 million! He thinks there could be as many as 50 million creators by 2025! He emphasized that Spotify has a head start in audio of more than a decade and that this advantage gives them tremendous data, insights and experiences along with unrivaled size and scale. Spotify’s head start reminds me of what Bill Mesce Jr. said about HBO’s head start over Showtime in hisInside the Rise of HBObook:\n\n It was a head start Showtime never overcame. By the late 1980s, HBO had a brand recognition level in the same league as Coca-Cola, meaning you had to have been living in a cave since 1972 not to know what HBO was. HBO had become so identified in the public mind with cable TV that many cable customers thought HBO and their cable company were the same thing!\n\n\n [Location: 1,307]\n\nThe early leader has more advantages than just brand recognition. At the March 2018Investor Daythen CFO Barry McCarthy noted that the older subscription companies have an edge over newer subscription companies because older companies have lower average churn rates such that they can beat newer companies like a drum.\nI believe these updates are very encouraging as they show that Spotify has tremendous momentum. The fact that 60,000 songs are updated daily vs. just 20,000 2 years ago shows that the music industry is changing and the old ways of doing things with the labels are fading quickly. The large number of artists and listeners is a powerful combination and no one wants to be left out of the Spotify ecosystem.\nStream On Investor Discussion\nThe slides during the investordiscussionat the end of Stream On were very helpful.\nCEO Ek says the mission guides everything they do at Spotify:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nWhen thinking about the mission, CEO Ek says we should keep their 4 pillars in mind. They are Create, Grow, Engage and Monetize. He says to keep these pillars in mind when thinking about all the Stream On announcements:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nThere are 2 interlocking flywheels and Spotify is the facilitator in the middle. On the Creator side the Owned & Exclusive [O&E] podcast portfolio is becoming more important:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nSpotify shows that they have come a long way since the 2008 launch now that they have 345 million monthly active users [MAUs], 155 million premium subscribers, annual revenue of €7.9 billion and a gross margin of 26%:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nSpotify is already the leader for music streaming and they want to be the podcast leader as well. It can be dangerous for investors when new companies have rosy projections for the total addressable market [TAM] but we see from the slide above that Spotify is not a new company; they have proven themselves with music streaming and they have credibility with other audio ambitions:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nThis data in the TAM slides is from a number of sources including a Goldman Sachs research report. Spotify is already at about 40% market share for music streaming. They want to take share in paid audio and podcasting such that they reach a level of 1/3rd to 40% of market share in those spaces. CEO Ek says the overall audio market will be vastly different in 2030:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nCEO Ek makes the following observations about the slide above:\n1. Audio is a fast growing market.\n2. Radio is going from a gigantic business to a smaller part of the audio space.\n3. Music streaming, podcasting and paid audio benefit as terrestrial radio is unbundled.\nHe goes on to note that by 2030 music streaming should triple from $25 billion in annual revenue to $75 billion. By 2030 paid audio and podcasting should combine to be about $55 billion in annual revenue. As such, Spotify will be vying for a share of $130 billion in annual revenue. They want to have 1/3rd to 40% share so that could be $44 billion to $52 billion in annual revenue from music streaming, paid audio and podcasting. It’s a bit confusing because the slides are in $ but Spotify reports in €. Either way, the opportunity is vast. Speaking of paid audio, the Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) 202010-Kshows free cash flow of $1.7 billion on revenue of $8 billion for a margin of over 20%!\nSpotify CFO Vogel shows that they expect long term revenue growth to be 20%+. He then explains why they decided to increase the upper end of the long term gross margin range from 35% to 40%. In other words, the gross margin range shifted up from 30-35% in the Investor Day slides to 30-40% in the Stream On slides. The operating margin objective is 10%+ where R&D should continue to see heavy investments but leverage should be obtained with sales/marketing and G&A:\nImage Source: Spotify February 2021 Stream On Investor Discussion\nCFO Vogel reiterated 2021 guidance with respect to the full year:\nTotal MAUs: 407 - 427 million\nTotal Premium Subs: 172 - 184 million\nTotal Revenue: €9.01 - €9.41 billion*\n*Assumes about 370 bps headwind due to foreign exchange\nGross Margin: 23.7 - 25.7%\nOperating Loss: €(300) - €(200) million\nShowing the last slide, CFO Vogel recapped some of the large Stream On announcements:\nNew Markets Expansion\nHiFi\nNew Owned & Exclusive (“O&E”) Content\nNew Anchor Features\nSpotify Audience Network\nAd Studio For Podcasting\nSAI Expansion\nSponsored Recommendation Expansion\nDiscovery Mode Early Results\nThe first 4 announcements above impact both consumers and creators. The New Markets Expansion means the 85 new markets will bring the global total up to 170+. President Obama and Bruce Springsteen are highlighted with the new O&E content. The New Anchor Features make it easier for WordPress bloggers to become podcasters. Aimed at creators, the last 5 announcements are the right types of tools that are needed as the world changes. Spotify Audience Network, Ad Studio For Podcasting and SAI Expansion are in the advertising category. Sponsored Recommendation Expansion and Discovery Mode Early Results are in the marketplace category.\nThese slides left a meaningful impact on me as they show that Spotify is well positioned to be the dominant company in a growing audio world. The foundation is being laid down such that Spotify should have a substantial portion of the $130 billion TAM in 2030.\nStream On Q&A\nCEO Ek and CFO Vogel held a helpful Q&A session following the Stream On investor discussion.\nCFO Vogel said they expect “significant growth” in marketplace contribution to gross profit in 2021 and we know this is accretive to gross margin. CEO Ek made encouraging statements with margins as well by saying the #1 question from artists is about things they can do to be heard while the #1 question from consumers is how they can discover more content. This double-sided coin allows Spotify to create more efficient ways for creators and consumers to meet. In forming these relationships Spotify gets compensated in a manner that is accretive to margins.\nRegarding the 2030 revenue opportunity, a question was asked about the potential mix between subscription and advertising. CEO Ek responded by saying advertising will increase from today’s level of 10% vs 90% subscription. Referencing the $130 billion TAM, CEO Ek stated that advertising can be between 20 and 40% of the revenue mix. He also mentioned the transactional or a la carte part.\nA question was asked about getting to 50 million creators. Mentioning the internationalization of audiences, CEO Ek remarked that 80% of Spotify creators have audiences outside of their home countries. He went on to talk about the New Anchor Features announcement which revealed that vloggers can now create podcasts with 1 click.\nFollowing this Q&A, it’s clear to me that Spotify will have a unique role in the future of audio as there has never been a company in a position to have 50 million artists to go along with hundreds of millions of listeners.\nStreaming Is Crucial For The Music Industry\nI believe there has been some mendacity in the past with respect to just how much the labels depend on Spotify but that seems to be changing. The 202010-Kfor Warner Music Group (WMG) shows that streaming is more important than ever for the music industry:\nImage Source: Warner Music Group 10-K\nThe Warner Music Group 10-K goes on to show the importance of their relationship with Spotify. The Digital/streaming segment is prodigious and it is still growing! It was 51% of overall revenue or $2.3 billion/$4.5 billion in 2019 and 58% or $2.6 billion/$4.5 billion in 2020.\nThe Vivendi (OTCPK:VIVEF) Full Year 2020Resultsshow the importance of streaming for their Universal Music Group subsidiary:\nImage Source: Vivendi Full Year 2020 Results\nThe Vivendi Full Year 2020 Results show streaming and subscriptions were 46% of Universal Music Group revenue or €3.3 billion/€7.2 billion in 2019 and 51% or €3.8 billion/€7.4 billion in 2020.\nI’ve seen that analysts have questioned Spotify’s position with the labels but the labels themselves all say that the streaming market is growing and Spotify is the clear leader in this area.\nIndependent Artists\nThe Big 3 labels and Merlin are becoming a little less dominant every year as independent artists rise. The SpotifyF-1filing shows that the Big 3 labels and Merlin accounted for about 87% of music streams back in 2017. The 20-F filings and a MIDiAwriteupshow how that has changed since then:\nImage Source: MIDiA\nThe Big 3 labels and Merlin are dropping more noticeably as time goes on, losing 2 percentage points from 2017 to 2018, 3 points from 2018 to 2019 and 4 points from 2019 to 2020.\nGCAsays20,000 tracks were uploaded daily in 2018 and this went up to 40,000 daily in 2019. In the Stream On event Global Co-Head of Music Jeremy Erlich said it is now 60,000 daily! GCA shows that the number of independent artists on Spotify is growing rapidly:\nImage Source: GCA 4Q20 Report\nImage Source: GCA 4Q20 Report.\nI added red text to the GCA image above to note that Spotify now has 60K tracks updated daily and 22% of their streams are now from non-majors!\nIt isn’t surprising that we see a higher percentage of independent artists each year as the idea of signing away lifetime royalties continues to be questioned more directly as time passes.\nUser Growth\nVisual Capitalistshowsthat Spotify already has more than twice as many paid subs as either Apple Music (AAPL) or Amazon (AMZN):\nImage Source: Visual Capitalist\nIt isn’t just that Spotify has more paid subs than Apple and Amazon. Spotify users voraciously listen to streams and it is said that Spotify has more engagement per sub than Apple and Amazon.\nThe Warner Music Group 10-K says that music streaming is still in the early stages of global adoption and penetration. Spotify was founded in Sweden and about 43% of the people there are paid music subs compared to 27% in the U.S., 18% in Germany and 8% in Japan. At the Stream On event Spotifyannouncedthat they are expanding to 80+ new markets:\nImage Source: Spotify newsroom\nThe Spotify user number that I follow closest on the 202020-Fis the premium subscriber count:\nImage Source: 2020 20-F\nTheir MAUs include both premium subs and ad-supported users. This overall number isn’t quite as important to me as premium subs at this time because the economics for ad-supported users aren’t great right now. I view the ad-supported service as a subsidy program that offsets the costs of new premium subs. MAUs grew from 207 million in 2018 to 271 million in 2019 and then they went up to 345 million in 2020.\nIn the 2Q20callCEO Daniel Ek noted that they have a culture of experimentation, upping the number of A/B tests from a few hundred to thousands. He goes on to say that there is still a lot of pent-up demand for Spotify in markets around the world\nApple’s aversion to advertising is a huge disadvantage in this space. I think Spotify will continue to have a large lead over Apple with respect to paid subs as Spotify can use the ad-based freemium model as a customer acquisition tool for the paid side. It isn’t a good sign for Apple that they stopped disclosing the number of paid subs.Statistashows that we needn’t worry much about competition from Apple Music in places like Brazil and India where iOS share is minimal:\nImage Source: Statista\nAmazon Music is disadvantaged in Latin America where MercadoLibre is the dominant online marketplace. Both Amazon and Apple have priorities other than audio whereas Spotify is focused in this area.\nLong Term Goal Of Revenue Growth 20%+\nSpotify revenue climbed about 29% from $5.26 billion in 2018 to $6.76 billion in 2019. It then went up over 16% in 2020 to $7.88 billion. The Y/Y growth rates for the 2018 to 2019 period and the 2019 to 2020 period are much closer when we view them through a lens that removes the foreign currency effect. In that case Y/Y growth from 2019 to 2020 slowed to 20% after being 26% from 2018 to 2019 per the 4Q20 shareholderletterand the 4Q19 shareholderletter, respectively. A red box has been added below to the Reconciliation of IFRS to Non-IFRS Results table below from the 4Q20 shareholder letter in order to emphasize the adjusted growth rate of 20%:\nImage Source: 4Q20 shareholder letter\nThe 3Q20 letter and the 4Q20 letter say the depreciation of the USD vs. the euro was the primary driver behind the foreign currency effect.Trading Economicsshows the way the euro increased against the USD in 2020:\nImage Source: Trading Economics\nOther factors explaining the lower revenue growth are the lower growth of premium subs, lower monthly average revenue per user [ARPU] due to things like family plans and lower monthly ARPU in some geographies. Monthly premium ARPU fell from €4.81 in 2018 to €4.72 in 2019 to €4.31 in 2020 but this is part of the market share strategy and they didn’t want to raise prices during the Covid-19 pandemic.\nManagement explained during the Stream On event that they expect long term revenue growth to be 20%+ but their 2021 guidance appears to be below this percentage in part due to foreign exchange headwinds . I think they can get back to the 20%+ growth level starting with the 2021 to 2022 period.\nLong-Term Goal Of Gross Margin 30-40%\nManagement put up a slide during the March 2018 Investor Day presentation saying they would eventually like to get to gross margins of 30-35%. Then CFO Barry McCarthy said explained the thought process:\n\n Now if the investments we make in R&D and content improve the overall user experience, and if, as a result of building our two-sided marketplace, we come to own discovery and demand creation for users and artists, then we expect the long-term margin structure of the business to evolve along the lines summarized on this slide.\n\nIn the 2Q20callCEO Daniel Ek answered a question about promoted songs saying that promotion/marketing has overtaken distribution as the most expensive cost for labels:\n\n So if labels instead reinvest some of the portion of the marketing spend that they use to promote market artists on this platform natively, the result should be a lot better. You should see better results for consumers because they're getting more of what they actually like. You should see better results for artists and labels as well because they're able to grow their fans a lot better at more efficiently priced -- prices than, say, other advertising marketplaces or billboards that they've traditionally spent them on. And of course, for Spotify, it means a higher gross margin business as well.\n\nThis sounds a lot to me like Amazon telling their third-party merchants that they could improve marketplace results by advertising. And what we’ve seen with respect to advertising revenue at Amazon has been mind boggling. A footnote on their 202010-Ksays the “Other” segment that went from $10.1 billion in 2018 to $21.5 billion in 2020 is primarily advertising.\nThe 2020 20-F reminds us that Spotify is in the discovery business and this is good for the gross margin:\n\n Spotify is more than an audio streaming service. We are in the discovery business. Every day, fans from around the world trust our brand to guide them to music and entertainment that they would never have discovered on their own. If discovery drives delight, and delight drives engagement, and engagement drives discovery, we believe Spotify wins and so do our users.\n\nThe 4Q20 Warner Music Group earningscalltalked about one of the many ways in which Spotify can increase the gross margins. Jessica Ehrlich of BofA Merrill Lynch asked about Spotify’s marketing tools:\n\n Spotify is testing a new discovery mode, which allows artists and labels to influence the songs selected by its algorithm by receiving a lower royalty payout. How does this feature affect your marketing strategy? And how do you think about the importance of marketing within that ecosystem or in DSPs in general versus marketing or promoting music through other channels?\n\nWarner CEO Stephen Cooper answered by saying they experiment with marketing tools regularly. I believe there are many ways that Spotify can provide value in this area over the years and it’s hard to envision a future where this doesn’t work well for all parties involved.\nBen Swinburne asked about Spotify raising the high end of their gross margin guidance to 40% at the March 2021 Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and TelecomConference. CFO Paul Vogel responded:\n\n I mean for us, it's just the optionality of all the new initiatives and all the investments that we see over the next 3 to 5 years. And so if you think about the opportunity in podcast, and when you think about the opportunities in ad network, right? A couple of years ago, there really wasn't as much of a thought around us being and creating an advertising network. And now we think that's, obviously, something we're developing and building. And we think if it goes really well, there could be upside there to margins in initiatives like that. And there's obviously other things we're working on that we didn't even announce at Stream On in terms of products or innovations.\n\nWe haven’t even seen all the ways in which the gross margin will rise as the audio space continues to evolve.\nLong-Term Goal Of Operating Margin 10+%\nI don’t expect them to get to this level anytime soon given what then CFO Barry McCarthy said at the March 2018 Investor Day:\n\n Growth, of course, has pressured our operating margins. And you should expect us to continue to invest in growth at the expense of operating profit, because we believe growth increases our enterprise value.\n\n\n Now in some respects, this reminds me of my first 10 years at Netflix, when we transitioned from operating with a negative gross margin to operating with a 35% gross margin as the business scaled. And the point here is that scale can be a great enabler of margin expansion, particularly if you couple it with data insights to drive a better user interface, add a better content experience, and in the process come to own demand creation and the margin that comes with owning demand creation.\n\nIn the 4Q20 earningscalla question from Steven Cahall pointed out that the implied 2021 incremental operating margin is about 3%. His question was about meaningful margin expansion in the future. CFO Vogel answered by saying R&D will continue to see heavy investment such that there won’t be much leveraging there. He went on to say that sales and marketing along with G&A could see some leverage:\n\n And then when you look at sort of sales and marketing, I think there are areas over time that we could be more efficient there, potentially on the marketing side we'll see them and also on the sales side as we add more automation into the ecosystem and more self-serve products and those types of things.\n\n\n And in the G&A side as well. I mean it's a heavy lift first to go and be prepared to be a public company. And then as you continue to launch more and more markets, what you need to do from an infrastructure standpoint, obviously, there's some build-out there. But you can imagine over time, once we're in more markets where we want to be and where it is sufficient scale, you'll start to see leverage on the G&A side as well.\n\nCEO Ek chimed in during the 4Q20 call as well noting that it is expensive to go after billions of consumers around the world in the audio category. They also have to invest in tools for millions of creators and this hurts the operating margin:\n\n And these are multiyear investments. Plus, of course, adding to the fact that we're producing our own content. We're pursuing exclusives. We're going into categories. We're going into new markets. Those are all the things that you're seeing in the P&L coming through that we are doing.\n\nCEO Ek went on to say that at a mature state, the business will look very different than the growth stage that they’re investing behind now.\nI try not to anchor on the current economics and I believe they can eventually get to 12 to 15% operating margins well into the future after the audio space has changed dramatically.\nValuation\nThe midpoint of 2021 revenue guidance is 9.2 billion euros as there are foreign exchange headwinds. Management is aiming for 20%+ revenue growth in the long run. Starting with a base of 9.2 billion euros in 2021, if they can grow revenue at 20% then revenue should be close to 20 billion euros by 2025.\nIf Spotify can have a steady-state operating margin of 12 to 15% by that time then operating earnings should be about 2.4 to 3 billion euros and if the company is valued at 25x that amount then we’re talking about a value of around 60 to 75 euros. Right now 1 euro equals $1.21 and if the exchange rate is similar in 2025 then this range will be equivalent to $73 to $91 billion. It’s hard to say what that is worth today but if it is around $55 billion then the 5 year CAGR range could be 6 to 11%.\nThe enterprise value is fairly close to the market cap. The 2020 20-F shows 190,212,847 shares and the March 5th share price was $274.98 implying a market cap of $52.3 billion. I think the stock is reasonably priced as the $52.3 billion market cap is less than the $55 billion mentioned above.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}