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2021-06-27

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Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict

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The Final Verdict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>\n <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p>\n<p><b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p>\n<p>Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p>\n<p><b>Market opportunity</b></p>\n<p>In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p>\n<p>China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p>\n<p>Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p>\n<p>Turning to growth projections.</p>\n<p>With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p>\n<p>Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p>\n<p><b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p>\n<p>Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p>\n<p>Winner here: Ford.</p>\n<p><b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p>\n<p>Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p>\n<p>Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p>\n<p>The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p>\n<p>The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p>\n<p>Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p>\n<p>Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p>\n<p>The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p>\n<p><b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p>\n<p>Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p>\n<p>Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p>\n<p>Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p>\n<p><b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p>\n<p>NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p>\n<p><b>Final verdict</b></p>\n<p>NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p>\n<p>Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p>\n<p>If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 08:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120043860,"gmtCreate":1624289758350,"gmtModify":1703832679510,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice q","listText":"Nice q","text":"Nice q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120043860","repostId":"1127414335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127414335","pubTimestamp":1624288763,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127414335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127414335","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to con","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>After a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</li>\n <li>Amazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).</li>\n <li>The stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.</li>\n <li>Today, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.</p>\n<p>The primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.</p>\n<p>After evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.</p>\n<p><b>The Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation</b></p>\n<p>At BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.</p>\n<p>Here's our extensive research work on Amazon:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Retail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth</li>\n <li>Amazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>\n <li>Digital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86ef0b4ba9477ffe4662dd02b4a4fe56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Now, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450a291ce832606dc4568f5b000a234b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>After rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Why Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?</b></p>\n<p>In Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/484d6ffb34aa711d2460f56878a19b30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>With acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f684da9379808e65eb00bac24f21bd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>As you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1ec1d647bed5d59e91bdaa0535d25e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\"></p>\n<p>Source:&nbsp;Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>Since 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f1ccee71f8675c6cabd16cf4e08733d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>The massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c041f8732f0e9557d632f4bc3444b54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Amazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6b99e2dd54b3885cd7542d213be0429\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p>I believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.</p>\n<p><b>Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p>\n<p>To determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>With massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.</p>\n<p><b>Assumptions:</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82136b2cd82ebf242b95eb6d17e2f4b1\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"538\"></p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a3cb8964e421080c530abc1b3d62bf\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"729\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.</p>\n<p>To calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.</p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb09f1799ac5ea2741e204766b4df3c\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"429\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Furthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.</li>\n <li>Since Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.</li>\n <li>In the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.</li>\n <li>For the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Also, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.</li>\n <li>Amazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.</li>\n <li>The healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</p>\n<p>In the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.</p>\n<p>Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.</p>\n<p>Thanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127414335","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).\nThe stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.\nToday, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.\nThe primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.\nAfter evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.\nThe Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation\nAt BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.\nHere's our extensive research work on Amazon:\n\nRetail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth\nAmazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring\nDigital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS\n\nSource: YCharts\nNow, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAfter rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.\nWhy Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?\nIn Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:\n\nSource:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nWith acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAs you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).\n\nSource: Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nSince 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.\nSource: YCharts\nThe massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAmazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.\n\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nI believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.\nFair Value And Expected Returns\nTo determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nWith massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.\nAssumptions:\n\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.\nTo calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.\nRisks\n\nAmazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.\nFurthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.\nSince Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.\nIn the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.\nFor the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.\nAlso, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.\nAmazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.\nThe healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.\n\nConcluding Thoughts\nAmazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nIn the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.\nThanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167776066,"gmtCreate":1624286569055,"gmtModify":1703832554743,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167776066","repostId":"1136791321","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136791321","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624282996,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136791321?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks fell in morning trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136791321","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 21) EV stocks fell in morning trading.","content":"<p>(June 21)&nbsp;EV stocks fell in morning trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e7cf675e122ca02f2d220cde025a88\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"239\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks fell in morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks fell in morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-21 21:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 21)&nbsp;EV stocks fell in morning trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e7cf675e122ca02f2d220cde025a88\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"239\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136791321","content_text":"(June 21) EV stocks fell in morning trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165384395,"gmtCreate":1624096330417,"gmtModify":1703828761651,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165384395","repostId":"1138062216","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138062216","pubTimestamp":1624029740,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138062216?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Energy stocks roar toward their best year in three decades amid recovery in oil","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138062216","media":"cnbc","summary":"It’s six months into 2021, andenergy stocksare already on pace for their best year in more than thre","content":"<div>\n<p>It’s six months into 2021, andenergy stocksare already on pace for their best year in more than three decades, leading some to believe the run may be due for a pullback.\nThe group pulled back on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/energy-stocks-roar-toward-their-best-year-in-three-decades-amid-recovery-in-oil.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Energy stocks roar toward their best year in three decades amid recovery in oil</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEnergy stocks roar toward their best year in three decades amid recovery in oil\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/energy-stocks-roar-toward-their-best-year-in-three-decades-amid-recovery-in-oil.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s six months into 2021, andenergy stocksare already on pace for their best year in more than three decades, leading some to believe the run may be due for a pullback.\nThe group pulled back on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/energy-stocks-roar-toward-their-best-year-in-three-decades-amid-recovery-in-oil.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EOG":"依欧格资源","FANG":"Diamondback Energy","DVN":"德文能源","MRO":"马拉松石油"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/energy-stocks-roar-toward-their-best-year-in-three-decades-amid-recovery-in-oil.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1138062216","content_text":"It’s six months into 2021, andenergy stocksare already on pace for their best year in more than three decades, leading some to believe the run may be due for a pullback.\nThe group pulled back on Thursday and Friday, but is still up more than 40% for the year. That’s almost double the 23% return for the real estate sector, which is the second-best sector. The S&P 500 is up nearly 12% this year.\nEnergy’s big start to the year means that even if the sector goes nowhere for the rest of 2021, it will still be the best year since 1990 by nearly 10%, according to Bay Crest Partners chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky.\nThe surge in energy stocks comes on the back of a recovery in oil prices, and as investors return to areas of the market that were left out of 2020′s rebound from the pandemic lows. The sector was also starting from a low base. In 2020, the group fell 37.3% for its worst performance since inception in 1989.\nKrinsky is among those saying the upside move is overdone, and his call is to sell crude oil and energy stocks broadly. From a technical standpoint, he noted that the $420 to $450 level acted as support — a floor — for the group during the last decade. But then during the Covid sell-off, the sector plunged below that key level — breaking below $200 — as the pandemic ground economies around the world to a halt.\n\nThe S&P Energy Sector has since recovered and traded as high as $420 on Thursday, inching closer to their prior support level, which now acts as resistance, or where an uptrend could be expected to reverse.\n“Oftentimes when you break a very important support like that, once you come back and test it as resistance, it’s difficult to exceed that — at least on the first try,” Krinsky noted.\nGauging performance from Jan. 1 might seem arbitrary, but he added that the sector’s outperformance is notable from virtually any date. Over the last eight months, the group has returned over 90%, which Krinsky says is more than two times the prior largest such gain over the last three decades.\n“Even on a rolling basis this is somewhat unprecedented,” he said. His bearish call on the sector also stems from other commodities breaking down, including lumber and copper. The latter is now breaking its uptrend, and Krinsky noted that copper was a leading indicator for the 2020 low, hitting a bottom one month ahead of West Texas Intermediate Crude futures.\nTOP-PERFORMING S&P 500 ENERGY STOCKS THIS YEAR\n\n\n\nTICKER\nCOMPANY\nPRICE\n%CHANGE\nYIELD\nPREVIOUS CLOSE\n\n\n\n\nMRO\nMarathon Oil Corp\n12.83\n-0.4655\n12.83\n12.89\n\n\nFANG\nDiamondback Energy Inc\n86.23\n-0.7596\n86.23\n86.89\n\n\nDVN\nDevon Energy Corp\n27.22\n-1.3411\n27.22\n27.59\n\n\nEOG\nEOG Resources Inc\n80.795\n-0.7798\n80.795\n81.43\n\n\n\nWithin the sector,Marathon Oilhas gained nearly 93% this year, making it the top-performing energy stock in the S&P 500.\nDiamondback Energyrose about 80% year to date, andDevon Energyclimbed more than 70%.OccidentalandEOG Resourcesare up more than 60%.\nAmid the outperformance the group remains unloved by Wall Street as factors – including environmental, social and corporate governance investing – prompt investors to shy away from the sector. Bank of America recently noted that the entire sector makes up just 2% of the average long-only portfolio, or less than half the allocation toward Facebook, which sits at 4.2%.\nEnergy still comprises a tiny portion of the S&P 500, but as the sector’s weighting grows, fund managers who shun the space could risk returns.\nMRB Partners on Thursday reiterated its overweight rating on the group, saying the recovery in demand for petroleum products, coupled with ongoing supply constraints, should push oil prices higher, leading to further returns for energy stocks.\n“Strengthening cash flows, leaner cost structures, and better capital discipline position the industry to moderately increase capital returns to shareholders,” strategists led by Salvatore Ruscitti wrote in a note to clients. “Relative performance will benefit from the reflationary backdrop and our expectations for a softer U.S. dollar.”\nWhen it comes to specific stocks, Gilman Hill Asset Management CEO Jenny Harrington owns names includingChevron,OneokandKinder Morgan. She noted on Thursday’s“Halftime Report”that it’s important to look at the whole picture. While oil is at its highest level in nearly two and a half years, it’s trading at about half the level it was just a few years ago. On the flip side, it’s well above where it traded in June of 2020 as the pandemic took hold.\n“They’re all trading at a fraction of the market multiple,” Harrington said of the energy stocks she owns. “They all have hefty dividend yields,” she added, arguing that strong earnings growth means “there’s a lot of room to go here.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168334332,"gmtCreate":1623949816826,"gmtModify":1703824543714,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168334332","repostId":"2144426397","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161808817,"gmtCreate":1623915058039,"gmtModify":1703823392318,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161808817","repostId":"1193159328","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193159328","pubTimestamp":1623913694,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193159328?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 15:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Palantir's Future Looks Bright","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193159328","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Despite volatility in its stock, the data aggregation specialist looks poised for ongoing success.","content":"<p>The past several months have been a roller coaster for investors in data science software company&nbsp;<b>Palantir Technologies</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:PLTR). Palantir excited investors when it went public in September, but market sentiment toward the stock has cooled since then. Still, once you peel back the layers of Palantir's business, you'll find three reasons why this innovative and exciting company seems bound for brighter days ahead.</p>\n<p><b>1. Data is growing exponentially</b></p>\n<p>According to&nbsp;<b>IBM,</b>90% of the entire world's data has been generated just in the past two years. As the various parts of the world currently without the internet continue to go digital, they'll create even more data with every email, text, website, or app.</p>\n<p>However, these massive volumes of data are fragmented, coming from many and various sources. Imagine being given a puzzle with a<i>trillion</i>pieces and being asked to put it together. Companies may capture and store all this data, but they're just now realizing that they also need tools to manage it all.</p>\n<p>Palantir offers those companies cutting-edge help. Its software formats an organization's data into a single, easily understood language that people can use to make decisions and instantly track their impact.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb66b53826e481bff065d169ae26683c\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1250\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<p><b>2. The US government has proven Palantir's value</b></p>\n<p>The US government was the first organization to back Palantir in the early 2000s. While details about Palantir's government work are sparse, Palantir has helped the Department of Defense combat terrorism, and it was recently deployed to track the distribution of COVID-19 vaccinations in the US.</p>\n<p>Investors should know the controversy that Palantir brings to the table. The company has placed itself into \"sticky\" public relations situations; its own employees have criticized the company for its work with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Striking a balance between the desires of your employees and your largest customer can be a delicate balancing act.</p>\n<p>Palantir CEO Alex Karp has publicly sided with the government -- and that loyalty has helped Palantir land additional government projects. In the company's recent Q1 business update, management disclosed that government business had grown 83% year over year.</p>\n<p>A handful of government contract wins have illustrated this growth in recent months:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>$110 million from US Special Operations Command</li>\n <li>$33 million from the US Space Force</li>\n <li>$90 million from the National Nuclear Safety Administration</li>\n <li>A potential $250 million from the US Army</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The government is a tight-knit community where relationships and word of mouth make a difference. Palantir's years of proximity to the government have helped it win multiple contracts, strengthening its potential for future gains.&nbsp;Palantir derives 56% of its revenue from government clients -- its single largest customer. Losing that business could expose the company to devastating consequences.</p>\n<p>However, as Palantir penetrates various branches of government, its business becomes more \"sticky\" and difficult to displace. While some companies have similar capabilities in managing data, such as&nbsp;<b>Snowflake</b>,<b>C3.ai</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Alteryx</b>, none currently can do it in a manner that is as integrated and seamless as Palantir. Palantir's Gotham platform can connect various government departments, enabling data from one to aid another. The company's 2020 annual report stated that Palantir wants to be the \"default operating system\" for all mission-critical data across the US government.</p>\n<p><b>3. The private sector's long runway</b></p>\n<p>The ability of Palantir's technology to simplify and provide insights into massive data pools is trickling into the private sector:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Pharmaceutical companies are using Palantir to help them find new drugs.</li>\n <li>Bankers and insurers turn to Palantir to detect laundering and fraud.</li>\n <li>Automotive manufacturers are using Palantir to trace quality defects to their origin in the factory.</li>\n <li>Aviation companies are using Palantir to simplify supply chains, saving costs and time.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>As companies save time and money through data management, competitors will seek similar tools to catch up (or maintain) a competitive edge.</p>\n<p>Right now, Palantir's customer base is concentrated-just 149 customers, the top 20 of whom contributed roughly half of Palantir's total $1.2 billion of revenue in 2020. The private sector currently represents just 44% of Palantir's business. As industries continue to lean on technology (especially with 5G dramatically increasing connectivity), more companies will need to manage their data.</p>\n<p>Palantir works with just a tiny fraction of the<i>Fortune</i>500 (just 24 companies in the Global 300). But if Palantir can provide the same level of value in its software to businesses that it has to the government, we are looking at a massive runway for expansion over the years ahead.</p>\n<p><b>Why Palantir has long-term upside</b></p>\n<p>Palantir's share price has gone up and down lately&nbsp;for no specific reason. Volatility is typical for newly public stocks, and it often doesn't reflect on the business itself. Management is guiding revenue growth at a 30%+ average growth rate over the next four years -- and with a virtually untapped private sector and government revenue accelerating, that target looks achievable.</p>\n<p>Earnings-based metrics such as the P/E ratio (price to earnings) won't tell you the whole story for&nbsp;tech growth stocks&nbsp;like Palantir, because right now, it's spending heavily to drive revenue growth. Instead, try weighing the company's enterprise value -- its market cap, plus all its cash, minus its debt -- against its annual sales. The company has pulled back from over 40x EV/sales in February to 29x EV/sales today.</p>\n<p>However, as Palantir grows, its revenues begin to expand faster than its expenses -- fattening its profits. In Q1 2021, 49% year-over-year revenue growth helped to push adjusted operating income from last year's $16 million loss to a $117 million gain. In the year-ago period, Palantir burned $290 million in cash; thanks to growing sales, it posted $151 million in free cash flow in Q1. Palantir's expected to be profitable this year for the first time.</p>\n<p>Far from a company in decline, Palantir is just getting started. Keep an eye on the company to make sure it continues to deliver new contracts and revenue growth in the quarters to come.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Palantir's Future Looks Bright</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Palantir's Future Looks Bright\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 15:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/3-reasons-palantirs-future-looks-bright/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The past several months have been a roller coaster for investors in data science software company Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR). Palantir excited investors when it went public in September, but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/3-reasons-palantirs-future-looks-bright/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/3-reasons-palantirs-future-looks-bright/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193159328","content_text":"The past several months have been a roller coaster for investors in data science software company Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR). Palantir excited investors when it went public in September, but market sentiment toward the stock has cooled since then. Still, once you peel back the layers of Palantir's business, you'll find three reasons why this innovative and exciting company seems bound for brighter days ahead.\n1. Data is growing exponentially\nAccording to IBM,90% of the entire world's data has been generated just in the past two years. As the various parts of the world currently without the internet continue to go digital, they'll create even more data with every email, text, website, or app.\nHowever, these massive volumes of data are fragmented, coming from many and various sources. Imagine being given a puzzle with atrillionpieces and being asked to put it together. Companies may capture and store all this data, but they're just now realizing that they also need tools to manage it all.\nPalantir offers those companies cutting-edge help. Its software formats an organization's data into a single, easily understood language that people can use to make decisions and instantly track their impact.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n2. The US government has proven Palantir's value\nThe US government was the first organization to back Palantir in the early 2000s. While details about Palantir's government work are sparse, Palantir has helped the Department of Defense combat terrorism, and it was recently deployed to track the distribution of COVID-19 vaccinations in the US.\nInvestors should know the controversy that Palantir brings to the table. The company has placed itself into \"sticky\" public relations situations; its own employees have criticized the company for its work with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Striking a balance between the desires of your employees and your largest customer can be a delicate balancing act.\nPalantir CEO Alex Karp has publicly sided with the government -- and that loyalty has helped Palantir land additional government projects. In the company's recent Q1 business update, management disclosed that government business had grown 83% year over year.\nA handful of government contract wins have illustrated this growth in recent months:\n\n$110 million from US Special Operations Command\n$33 million from the US Space Force\n$90 million from the National Nuclear Safety Administration\nA potential $250 million from the US Army\n\nThe government is a tight-knit community where relationships and word of mouth make a difference. Palantir's years of proximity to the government have helped it win multiple contracts, strengthening its potential for future gains. Palantir derives 56% of its revenue from government clients -- its single largest customer. Losing that business could expose the company to devastating consequences.\nHowever, as Palantir penetrates various branches of government, its business becomes more \"sticky\" and difficult to displace. While some companies have similar capabilities in managing data, such as Snowflake,C3.ai, and Alteryx, none currently can do it in a manner that is as integrated and seamless as Palantir. Palantir's Gotham platform can connect various government departments, enabling data from one to aid another. The company's 2020 annual report stated that Palantir wants to be the \"default operating system\" for all mission-critical data across the US government.\n3. The private sector's long runway\nThe ability of Palantir's technology to simplify and provide insights into massive data pools is trickling into the private sector:\n\nPharmaceutical companies are using Palantir to help them find new drugs.\nBankers and insurers turn to Palantir to detect laundering and fraud.\nAutomotive manufacturers are using Palantir to trace quality defects to their origin in the factory.\nAviation companies are using Palantir to simplify supply chains, saving costs and time.\n\nAs companies save time and money through data management, competitors will seek similar tools to catch up (or maintain) a competitive edge.\nRight now, Palantir's customer base is concentrated-just 149 customers, the top 20 of whom contributed roughly half of Palantir's total $1.2 billion of revenue in 2020. The private sector currently represents just 44% of Palantir's business. As industries continue to lean on technology (especially with 5G dramatically increasing connectivity), more companies will need to manage their data.\nPalantir works with just a tiny fraction of theFortune500 (just 24 companies in the Global 300). But if Palantir can provide the same level of value in its software to businesses that it has to the government, we are looking at a massive runway for expansion over the years ahead.\nWhy Palantir has long-term upside\nPalantir's share price has gone up and down lately for no specific reason. Volatility is typical for newly public stocks, and it often doesn't reflect on the business itself. Management is guiding revenue growth at a 30%+ average growth rate over the next four years -- and with a virtually untapped private sector and government revenue accelerating, that target looks achievable.\nEarnings-based metrics such as the P/E ratio (price to earnings) won't tell you the whole story for tech growth stocks like Palantir, because right now, it's spending heavily to drive revenue growth. Instead, try weighing the company's enterprise value -- its market cap, plus all its cash, minus its debt -- against its annual sales. The company has pulled back from over 40x EV/sales in February to 29x EV/sales today.\nHowever, as Palantir grows, its revenues begin to expand faster than its expenses -- fattening its profits. In Q1 2021, 49% year-over-year revenue growth helped to push adjusted operating income from last year's $16 million loss to a $117 million gain. In the year-ago period, Palantir burned $290 million in cash; thanks to growing sales, it posted $151 million in free cash flow in Q1. Palantir's expected to be profitable this year for the first time.\nFar from a company in decline, Palantir is just getting started. Keep an eye on the company to make sure it continues to deliver new contracts and revenue growth in the quarters to come.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169582623,"gmtCreate":1623843219762,"gmtModify":1703821094761,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169582623","repostId":"1115897866","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115897866","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623821941,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115897866?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 13:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia’s closing of $40 bln Arm deal could hinge on Europe","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115897866","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 15 (Reuters) - Nvidia Corp may not be able to meet a March 2022 deadline for closing its $40 bi","content":"<p>June 15 (Reuters) - Nvidia Corp&nbsp;may not be able to meet a March 2022 deadline for closing its $40 billion acquisition of British chip technology firm Arm Ltd due to European regulators’ reluctance to consider the case until after the summer holidays, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.</p>\n<p>Nvidia announced the Arm deal last year, sparking an immediate backlash in the semiconductor industry, where Arm has long been a neutral player licensing key intellectual property to customers who are otherwise intense rivals, including Qualcomm Inc, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd&nbsp;and Apple Inc.</p>\n<p>The company needs regulatory approval from U.S., European and Chinese authorities, all of which are expected to scrutinize the transaction closely. While Nvidia told investors last year that it plans to close the deal by March 2022, the purchase agreement gives the two companies the option to extend the deadline to September 2022. But at that point, either party has the option to walk away if the deal does not receive government approval.</p>\n<p>Nvidia has not yet filed an application to clear the deal with the European Commission. Officials there have made it clear to the company that they need until September to gather enough information to accept Nvidia's formal application for approval, according to three people familiar with the matter.</p>\n<p>That could make it difficult for Nvidia to close the deal by March of next year as planned, these people said. Technology news publication The Information earlier on Tuesday&nbsp;reported the possibility of a delayed filing&nbsp;in Europe.</p>\n<p>The U.S. Federal Trade Commission has been gathering information about the deal, people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Nvidia has filed for approval of the deal in China, the Financial Times reported last week.</p>\n<p>In a statement, Nvidia said that “many jurisdictions have a pre-notification period, where the parties have a detailed and ongoing dialogue with regulators. Our discussions with regulators have been thorough and constructive. We’ll continue to work throughout the summer, as we anticipated all along, and expect to close in early 2022.”</p>\n<p>By the letter of the law in Europe, Nvidia can file its application at any time. But in practice, regulatory attorneys said, most companies wait until receiving an informal go-ahead from regulators before formally filing.</p>\n<p>One regulatory attorney who has worked on European deals said a move to file before regulators have signaled they are ready to act on the application would be \"suicidal\" for Nvidia's good relations with European regulators.</p>\n<p>\"After nine months, the commission still feels there are very serious concerns,\" the attorney said. \"They are not ready to take this filing. If Nvidia goes down this road, it's a very confrontational strategy with a very powerful agency.\"</p>\n<p>The Nvidia-Arm deal also faces headwinds in the United Kingdom, which has said it will conduct a national security review of the deal. Headquartered in Cambridge, England, Arm is considered a crown jewel of the country's tech industry, and British regulators required it to set UK headcount targets before allowing it to be sold to Japan's SoftBank Group Corp(9984.T)in 2016.</p>\n<p>Nvidia's stock has risen 37% this year, versus a 12% rise in the Nasdaq composite.</p>\n<p>The fear among chip firms is that Nvidia will give itself early access to Arm's innovations rather than distributing them to the entire industry on an equal basis. Nvidia and Arm officials have told Reuters they intend to keep \"firewalls\" in place at the combined company to prevent that from happening.</p>\n<p>Questions on how Nvidia will run Arm took on new urgency in April when Nvidia said it will make anArm-based central processor chipfor data centers, its first major Arm effort and the centerpiece of its strategy to challenge rivals Intel Corp&nbsp;and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia’s closing of $40 bln Arm deal could hinge on Europe</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia’s closing of $40 bln Arm deal could hinge on Europe\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-16 13:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 15 (Reuters) - Nvidia Corp&nbsp;may not be able to meet a March 2022 deadline for closing its $40 billion acquisition of British chip technology firm Arm Ltd due to European regulators’ reluctance to consider the case until after the summer holidays, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.</p>\n<p>Nvidia announced the Arm deal last year, sparking an immediate backlash in the semiconductor industry, where Arm has long been a neutral player licensing key intellectual property to customers who are otherwise intense rivals, including Qualcomm Inc, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd&nbsp;and Apple Inc.</p>\n<p>The company needs regulatory approval from U.S., European and Chinese authorities, all of which are expected to scrutinize the transaction closely. While Nvidia told investors last year that it plans to close the deal by March 2022, the purchase agreement gives the two companies the option to extend the deadline to September 2022. But at that point, either party has the option to walk away if the deal does not receive government approval.</p>\n<p>Nvidia has not yet filed an application to clear the deal with the European Commission. Officials there have made it clear to the company that they need until September to gather enough information to accept Nvidia's formal application for approval, according to three people familiar with the matter.</p>\n<p>That could make it difficult for Nvidia to close the deal by March of next year as planned, these people said. Technology news publication The Information earlier on Tuesday&nbsp;reported the possibility of a delayed filing&nbsp;in Europe.</p>\n<p>The U.S. Federal Trade Commission has been gathering information about the deal, people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Nvidia has filed for approval of the deal in China, the Financial Times reported last week.</p>\n<p>In a statement, Nvidia said that “many jurisdictions have a pre-notification period, where the parties have a detailed and ongoing dialogue with regulators. Our discussions with regulators have been thorough and constructive. We’ll continue to work throughout the summer, as we anticipated all along, and expect to close in early 2022.”</p>\n<p>By the letter of the law in Europe, Nvidia can file its application at any time. But in practice, regulatory attorneys said, most companies wait until receiving an informal go-ahead from regulators before formally filing.</p>\n<p>One regulatory attorney who has worked on European deals said a move to file before regulators have signaled they are ready to act on the application would be \"suicidal\" for Nvidia's good relations with European regulators.</p>\n<p>\"After nine months, the commission still feels there are very serious concerns,\" the attorney said. \"They are not ready to take this filing. If Nvidia goes down this road, it's a very confrontational strategy with a very powerful agency.\"</p>\n<p>The Nvidia-Arm deal also faces headwinds in the United Kingdom, which has said it will conduct a national security review of the deal. Headquartered in Cambridge, England, Arm is considered a crown jewel of the country's tech industry, and British regulators required it to set UK headcount targets before allowing it to be sold to Japan's SoftBank Group Corp(9984.T)in 2016.</p>\n<p>Nvidia's stock has risen 37% this year, versus a 12% rise in the Nasdaq composite.</p>\n<p>The fear among chip firms is that Nvidia will give itself early access to Arm's innovations rather than distributing them to the entire industry on an equal basis. Nvidia and Arm officials have told Reuters they intend to keep \"firewalls\" in place at the combined company to prevent that from happening.</p>\n<p>Questions on how Nvidia will run Arm took on new urgency in April when Nvidia said it will make anArm-based central processor chipfor data centers, its first major Arm effort and the centerpiece of its strategy to challenge rivals Intel Corp&nbsp;and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115897866","content_text":"June 15 (Reuters) - Nvidia Corp may not be able to meet a March 2022 deadline for closing its $40 billion acquisition of British chip technology firm Arm Ltd due to European regulators’ reluctance to consider the case until after the summer holidays, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\nNvidia announced the Arm deal last year, sparking an immediate backlash in the semiconductor industry, where Arm has long been a neutral player licensing key intellectual property to customers who are otherwise intense rivals, including Qualcomm Inc, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and Apple Inc.\nThe company needs regulatory approval from U.S., European and Chinese authorities, all of which are expected to scrutinize the transaction closely. While Nvidia told investors last year that it plans to close the deal by March 2022, the purchase agreement gives the two companies the option to extend the deadline to September 2022. But at that point, either party has the option to walk away if the deal does not receive government approval.\nNvidia has not yet filed an application to clear the deal with the European Commission. Officials there have made it clear to the company that they need until September to gather enough information to accept Nvidia's formal application for approval, according to three people familiar with the matter.\nThat could make it difficult for Nvidia to close the deal by March of next year as planned, these people said. Technology news publication The Information earlier on Tuesday reported the possibility of a delayed filing in Europe.\nThe U.S. Federal Trade Commission has been gathering information about the deal, people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Nvidia has filed for approval of the deal in China, the Financial Times reported last week.\nIn a statement, Nvidia said that “many jurisdictions have a pre-notification period, where the parties have a detailed and ongoing dialogue with regulators. Our discussions with regulators have been thorough and constructive. We’ll continue to work throughout the summer, as we anticipated all along, and expect to close in early 2022.”\nBy the letter of the law in Europe, Nvidia can file its application at any time. But in practice, regulatory attorneys said, most companies wait until receiving an informal go-ahead from regulators before formally filing.\nOne regulatory attorney who has worked on European deals said a move to file before regulators have signaled they are ready to act on the application would be \"suicidal\" for Nvidia's good relations with European regulators.\n\"After nine months, the commission still feels there are very serious concerns,\" the attorney said. \"They are not ready to take this filing. If Nvidia goes down this road, it's a very confrontational strategy with a very powerful agency.\"\nThe Nvidia-Arm deal also faces headwinds in the United Kingdom, which has said it will conduct a national security review of the deal. Headquartered in Cambridge, England, Arm is considered a crown jewel of the country's tech industry, and British regulators required it to set UK headcount targets before allowing it to be sold to Japan's SoftBank Group Corp(9984.T)in 2016.\nNvidia's stock has risen 37% this year, versus a 12% rise in the Nasdaq composite.\nThe fear among chip firms is that Nvidia will give itself early access to Arm's innovations rather than distributing them to the entire industry on an equal basis. Nvidia and Arm officials have told Reuters they intend to keep \"firewalls\" in place at the combined company to prevent that from happening.\nQuestions on how Nvidia will run Arm took on new urgency in April when Nvidia said it will make anArm-based central processor chipfor data centers, its first major Arm effort and the centerpiece of its strategy to challenge rivals Intel Corp and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184032026,"gmtCreate":1623677656165,"gmtModify":1704208413853,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184032026","repostId":"1108874297","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108874297","pubTimestamp":1623648201,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108874297?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Looking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108874297","media":"Motley Fool ","summary":"These tech leaders are seeing business trends pick up and they trade at reasonable valuations.","content":"<p>The&nbsp;<b>NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector</b>&nbsp;index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has led to higher volatility for many tech names that outperformed in 2020.</p>\n<p>Two stocks that are bucking that trend are&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Dell Technologies</b>(NYSE:DELL). Here's why these stocks could have more upside in 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d661948bdc8e3c30fae86266abb43f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<p><b>1. Alphabet</b></p>\n<p>Alphabet's stock price has trounced the broader market, up 42% year to date. The online tech titan initially reported sluggish growth in 2020&nbsp;as the pandemic slowed digital ad spending, which drives the bulk of Google search and YouTube revenue. But ad spending has been recovering strongly over the last few quarters.</p>\n<p>In the first quarter, revenue grew 34% year over year, on top of 15% in the year-ago quarter.&nbsp;More people are relying on search to find vaccine information and look for jobs, which is boosting Google's advertising revenue in the search business. YouTube ad spending is also picking up as more people are turning to the video platform to watch reviews and shop for products.</p>\n<p>During the Q1 earnings call, Alphabet's Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, \"We've seen great momentum in TrueView for Action ads, with a number of advertisers using the format doubling over the past year.\"</p>\n<p>Alphabet is also a leader in the booming cloud services market, where Google Cloud revenue surged 46% year over year. What's notable about this performance is that Google Cloud grew faster than the cloud market overall.&nbsp;This is an important market share gain for Google, which continues to trail the leaders,<b>Microsoft</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>.</p>\n<p>Overall, Alphabet has a wide&nbsp;competitive moat, with a massive base of users who rely on Gmail, Google Maps, search, and YouTube every day.</p>\n<p>Of course, government regulation is a long-term threat here. Alphabet just reached a settlement with regulators in France, where it will pay $270 million in fines over an antitrust dispute. But this regulatory risk seems to already be reflected in the stock's valuation.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect this&nbsp;FAANG stock&nbsp;to grow earnings per share at an annualized rate of 21% over the next five years, which is more than enough to support a forward P/E of 28.7 at the stock's current price.</p>\n<p><b>2. Dell Technologies</b></p>\n<p>Many investors remember Dell from the glory days of the PC boom a few decades ago. While the company benefited from a healthy PC market in the first quarter,&nbsp;the reason investors should consider buying shares is the momentum Dell is experiencing with its information technology business, along with other catalysts on the horizon.</p>\n<p>After posting a 1% decline in revenue through the first half of fiscal 2021, Dell has seen revenue accelerate to 9% in fiscal Q4 2021 and 12% in fiscal Q1 2022.</p>\n<p>\"There has been a substantial acceleration in digital transformation across the globe and you can see it in our results with record first-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion,\" Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings report.</p>\n<p>The stock has doubled off its lows from a year ago, reflecting the company's improving outlook coming out of the pandemic.&nbsp;But it could still head higher, for a few reasons.</p>\n<p>First, Dell is rapidly paying down its debt, which stood at $37.9 billion at the end of April, down from $41.6 billion at the end of January.&nbsp;Debt reduction not only lowers financial risk for Dell, but it also boosts earnings growth, since lower debt also means lower interest expense.&nbsp;The recent reduction in debt lowered interest expense by approximately $162 million last quarter and contributed to a 59% jump in net profit.</p>\n<p>Dell is also spinning off its 81%&nbsp;interest in&nbsp;<b>VMware</b>, which will provide proceeds of $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion to accelerate the reduction in debt.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, valuation is what counts. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 times forward earnings estimates.&nbsp;A combination of improving business growth, lower debt, and a cheap P/E make this a top tech stock to consider buying right now.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Looking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLooking for Tech Stocks? These 2 Are Great Buys\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 13:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/looking-for-tech-stocks-these-2-are-great-buys/><strong>Motley Fool </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/looking-for-tech-stocks-these-2-are-great-buys/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A","DELL":"戴尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/13/looking-for-tech-stocks-these-2-are-great-buys/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108874297","content_text":"The NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector index has had a remarkable run over the last five years, delivering a return of 237%. But year to date, the rotation from expensive growth stocks to value stocks has led to higher volatility for many tech names that outperformed in 2020.\nTwo stocks that are bucking that trend are Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Dell Technologies(NYSE:DELL). Here's why these stocks could have more upside in 2021.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Alphabet\nAlphabet's stock price has trounced the broader market, up 42% year to date. The online tech titan initially reported sluggish growth in 2020 as the pandemic slowed digital ad spending, which drives the bulk of Google search and YouTube revenue. But ad spending has been recovering strongly over the last few quarters.\nIn the first quarter, revenue grew 34% year over year, on top of 15% in the year-ago quarter. More people are relying on search to find vaccine information and look for jobs, which is boosting Google's advertising revenue in the search business. YouTube ad spending is also picking up as more people are turning to the video platform to watch reviews and shop for products.\nDuring the Q1 earnings call, Alphabet's Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said, \"We've seen great momentum in TrueView for Action ads, with a number of advertisers using the format doubling over the past year.\"\nAlphabet is also a leader in the booming cloud services market, where Google Cloud revenue surged 46% year over year. What's notable about this performance is that Google Cloud grew faster than the cloud market overall. This is an important market share gain for Google, which continues to trail the leaders,Microsoft and Amazon.\nOverall, Alphabet has a wide competitive moat, with a massive base of users who rely on Gmail, Google Maps, search, and YouTube every day.\nOf course, government regulation is a long-term threat here. Alphabet just reached a settlement with regulators in France, where it will pay $270 million in fines over an antitrust dispute. But this regulatory risk seems to already be reflected in the stock's valuation.\nAnalysts expect this FAANG stock to grow earnings per share at an annualized rate of 21% over the next five years, which is more than enough to support a forward P/E of 28.7 at the stock's current price.\n2. Dell Technologies\nMany investors remember Dell from the glory days of the PC boom a few decades ago. While the company benefited from a healthy PC market in the first quarter, the reason investors should consider buying shares is the momentum Dell is experiencing with its information technology business, along with other catalysts on the horizon.\nAfter posting a 1% decline in revenue through the first half of fiscal 2021, Dell has seen revenue accelerate to 9% in fiscal Q4 2021 and 12% in fiscal Q1 2022.\n\"There has been a substantial acceleration in digital transformation across the globe and you can see it in our results with record first-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion,\" Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in the earnings report.\nThe stock has doubled off its lows from a year ago, reflecting the company's improving outlook coming out of the pandemic. But it could still head higher, for a few reasons.\nFirst, Dell is rapidly paying down its debt, which stood at $37.9 billion at the end of April, down from $41.6 billion at the end of January. Debt reduction not only lowers financial risk for Dell, but it also boosts earnings growth, since lower debt also means lower interest expense. The recent reduction in debt lowered interest expense by approximately $162 million last quarter and contributed to a 59% jump in net profit.\nDell is also spinning off its 81% interest in VMware, which will provide proceeds of $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion to accelerate the reduction in debt.\nUltimately, valuation is what counts. The stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12 times forward earnings estimates. A combination of improving business growth, lower debt, and a cheap P/E make this a top tech stock to consider buying right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":124780693,"gmtCreate":1624792116212,"gmtModify":1703845210376,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124780693","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137119316?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>\n <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p>\n<p><b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p>\n<p>Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p>\n<p><b>Market opportunity</b></p>\n<p>In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p>\n<p>China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p>\n<p>Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p>\n<p>Turning to growth projections.</p>\n<p>With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p>\n<p>Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p>\n<p><b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p>\n<p>Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p>\n<p>Winner here: Ford.</p>\n<p><b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p>\n<p>Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p>\n<p>Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p>\n<p>The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p>\n<p>The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p>\n<p>Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p>\n<p>Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p>\n<p>The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p>\n<p><b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p>\n<p>Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p>\n<p>Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p>\n<p>Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p>\n<p><b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p>\n<p>NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p>\n<p><b>Final verdict</b></p>\n<p>NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p>\n<p>Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p>\n<p>If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 08:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165384395,"gmtCreate":1624096330417,"gmtModify":1703828761651,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165384395","repostId":"1138062216","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138062216","pubTimestamp":1624029740,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138062216?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Energy stocks roar toward their best year in three decades amid recovery in oil","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138062216","media":"cnbc","summary":"It’s six months into 2021, andenergy stocksare already on pace for their best year in more than thre","content":"<div>\n<p>It’s six months into 2021, andenergy stocksare already on pace for their best year in more than three decades, leading some to believe the run may be due for a pullback.\nThe group pulled back on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/energy-stocks-roar-toward-their-best-year-in-three-decades-amid-recovery-in-oil.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Energy stocks roar toward their best year in three decades amid recovery in oil</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEnergy stocks roar toward their best year in three decades amid recovery in oil\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/energy-stocks-roar-toward-their-best-year-in-three-decades-amid-recovery-in-oil.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s six months into 2021, andenergy stocksare already on pace for their best year in more than three decades, leading some to believe the run may be due for a pullback.\nThe group pulled back on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/energy-stocks-roar-toward-their-best-year-in-three-decades-amid-recovery-in-oil.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EOG":"依欧格资源","FANG":"Diamondback Energy","DVN":"德文能源","MRO":"马拉松石油"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/energy-stocks-roar-toward-their-best-year-in-three-decades-amid-recovery-in-oil.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1138062216","content_text":"It’s six months into 2021, andenergy stocksare already on pace for their best year in more than three decades, leading some to believe the run may be due for a pullback.\nThe group pulled back on Thursday and Friday, but is still up more than 40% for the year. That’s almost double the 23% return for the real estate sector, which is the second-best sector. The S&P 500 is up nearly 12% this year.\nEnergy’s big start to the year means that even if the sector goes nowhere for the rest of 2021, it will still be the best year since 1990 by nearly 10%, according to Bay Crest Partners chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky.\nThe surge in energy stocks comes on the back of a recovery in oil prices, and as investors return to areas of the market that were left out of 2020′s rebound from the pandemic lows. The sector was also starting from a low base. In 2020, the group fell 37.3% for its worst performance since inception in 1989.\nKrinsky is among those saying the upside move is overdone, and his call is to sell crude oil and energy stocks broadly. From a technical standpoint, he noted that the $420 to $450 level acted as support — a floor — for the group during the last decade. But then during the Covid sell-off, the sector plunged below that key level — breaking below $200 — as the pandemic ground economies around the world to a halt.\n\nThe S&P Energy Sector has since recovered and traded as high as $420 on Thursday, inching closer to their prior support level, which now acts as resistance, or where an uptrend could be expected to reverse.\n“Oftentimes when you break a very important support like that, once you come back and test it as resistance, it’s difficult to exceed that — at least on the first try,” Krinsky noted.\nGauging performance from Jan. 1 might seem arbitrary, but he added that the sector’s outperformance is notable from virtually any date. Over the last eight months, the group has returned over 90%, which Krinsky says is more than two times the prior largest such gain over the last three decades.\n“Even on a rolling basis this is somewhat unprecedented,” he said. His bearish call on the sector also stems from other commodities breaking down, including lumber and copper. The latter is now breaking its uptrend, and Krinsky noted that copper was a leading indicator for the 2020 low, hitting a bottom one month ahead of West Texas Intermediate Crude futures.\nTOP-PERFORMING S&P 500 ENERGY STOCKS THIS YEAR\n\n\n\nTICKER\nCOMPANY\nPRICE\n%CHANGE\nYIELD\nPREVIOUS CLOSE\n\n\n\n\nMRO\nMarathon Oil Corp\n12.83\n-0.4655\n12.83\n12.89\n\n\nFANG\nDiamondback Energy Inc\n86.23\n-0.7596\n86.23\n86.89\n\n\nDVN\nDevon Energy Corp\n27.22\n-1.3411\n27.22\n27.59\n\n\nEOG\nEOG Resources Inc\n80.795\n-0.7798\n80.795\n81.43\n\n\n\nWithin the sector,Marathon Oilhas gained nearly 93% this year, making it the top-performing energy stock in the S&P 500.\nDiamondback Energyrose about 80% year to date, andDevon Energyclimbed more than 70%.OccidentalandEOG Resourcesare up more than 60%.\nAmid the outperformance the group remains unloved by Wall Street as factors – including environmental, social and corporate governance investing – prompt investors to shy away from the sector. Bank of America recently noted that the entire sector makes up just 2% of the average long-only portfolio, or less than half the allocation toward Facebook, which sits at 4.2%.\nEnergy still comprises a tiny portion of the S&P 500, but as the sector’s weighting grows, fund managers who shun the space could risk returns.\nMRB Partners on Thursday reiterated its overweight rating on the group, saying the recovery in demand for petroleum products, coupled with ongoing supply constraints, should push oil prices higher, leading to further returns for energy stocks.\n“Strengthening cash flows, leaner cost structures, and better capital discipline position the industry to moderately increase capital returns to shareholders,” strategists led by Salvatore Ruscitti wrote in a note to clients. “Relative performance will benefit from the reflationary backdrop and our expectations for a softer U.S. dollar.”\nWhen it comes to specific stocks, Gilman Hill Asset Management CEO Jenny Harrington owns names includingChevron,OneokandKinder Morgan. She noted on Thursday’s“Halftime Report”that it’s important to look at the whole picture. While oil is at its highest level in nearly two and a half years, it’s trading at about half the level it was just a few years ago. On the flip side, it’s well above where it traded in June of 2020 as the pandemic took hold.\n“They’re all trading at a fraction of the market multiple,” Harrington said of the energy stocks she owns. “They all have hefty dividend yields,” she added, arguing that strong earnings growth means “there’s a lot of room to go here.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120043860,"gmtCreate":1624289758350,"gmtModify":1703832679510,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice q","listText":"Nice q","text":"Nice q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120043860","repostId":"1127414335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127414335","pubTimestamp":1624288763,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127414335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127414335","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to con","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>After a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</li>\n <li>Amazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).</li>\n <li>The stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.</li>\n <li>Today, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.</p>\n<p>The primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.</p>\n<p>After evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.</p>\n<p><b>The Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation</b></p>\n<p>At BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.</p>\n<p>Here's our extensive research work on Amazon:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Retail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth</li>\n <li>Amazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>\n <li>Digital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86ef0b4ba9477ffe4662dd02b4a4fe56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Now, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450a291ce832606dc4568f5b000a234b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>After rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Why Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?</b></p>\n<p>In Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/484d6ffb34aa711d2460f56878a19b30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>With acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f684da9379808e65eb00bac24f21bd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>As you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1ec1d647bed5d59e91bdaa0535d25e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\"></p>\n<p>Source:&nbsp;Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>Since 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f1ccee71f8675c6cabd16cf4e08733d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>The massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c041f8732f0e9557d632f4bc3444b54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Amazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6b99e2dd54b3885cd7542d213be0429\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p>I believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.</p>\n<p><b>Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p>\n<p>To determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>With massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.</p>\n<p><b>Assumptions:</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82136b2cd82ebf242b95eb6d17e2f4b1\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"538\"></p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a3cb8964e421080c530abc1b3d62bf\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"729\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.</p>\n<p>To calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.</p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb09f1799ac5ea2741e204766b4df3c\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"429\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Furthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.</li>\n <li>Since Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.</li>\n <li>In the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.</li>\n <li>For the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Also, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.</li>\n <li>Amazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.</li>\n <li>The healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</p>\n<p>In the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.</p>\n<p>Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.</p>\n<p>Thanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127414335","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).\nThe stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.\nToday, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.\nThe primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.\nAfter evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.\nThe Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation\nAt BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.\nHere's our extensive research work on Amazon:\n\nRetail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth\nAmazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring\nDigital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS\n\nSource: YCharts\nNow, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAfter rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.\nWhy Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?\nIn Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:\n\nSource:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nWith acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAs you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).\n\nSource: Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nSince 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.\nSource: YCharts\nThe massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAmazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.\n\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nI believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.\nFair Value And Expected Returns\nTo determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nWith massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.\nAssumptions:\n\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.\nTo calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.\nRisks\n\nAmazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.\nFurthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.\nSince Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.\nIn the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.\nFor the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.\nAlso, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.\nAmazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.\nThe healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.\n\nConcluding Thoughts\nAmazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nIn the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.\nThanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167776066,"gmtCreate":1624286569055,"gmtModify":1703832554743,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167776066","repostId":"1136791321","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161808817,"gmtCreate":1623915058039,"gmtModify":1703823392318,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161808817","repostId":"1193159328","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168334332,"gmtCreate":1623949816826,"gmtModify":1703824543714,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168334332","repostId":"2144426397","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169582623,"gmtCreate":1623843219762,"gmtModify":1703821094761,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169582623","repostId":"1115897866","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184032026,"gmtCreate":1623677656165,"gmtModify":1704208413853,"author":{"id":"3572864464954492","authorId":"3572864464954492","name":"Nick26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74d90e053272b31be39ad141117de79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572864464954492","idStr":"3572864464954492"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184032026","repostId":"1108874297","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}