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2021-07-04

Nice hindsight, thanks.

Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It

2021-06-28

Interesting

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2021-06-28

Nice

NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation

2021-06-27

Awright

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2021-06-24

Lol

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2021-06-23

Yeah, obesity promotion!

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2021-06-18

Interesting

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Taiwan Semiconductor  . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections,","content":"<blockquote>\n <i>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.</p>\n<p>The range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.</p>\n<p><b>This Week</b></p>\n<p>It was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).</p>\n<p>Early this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.</p>\n<p>Just a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.</p>\n<p>As an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.</p>\n<p><b>Wall Street</b></p>\n<p>Of those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.</p>\n<p><b>The Chart</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c41db815e4b2cbbc0f31979123e544\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Readers will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.</p>\n<p><b>The Plan</b></p>\n<p>Regular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</p>\n<p>I am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.</p>\n<p>I am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.</p>\n<p>I think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).</p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-03 09:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\n\nThinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","AMAT":"应用材料","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","MU":"美光科技","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104835932","content_text":"I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\n\nThinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.\nThe range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.\nThis Week\nIt was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).\nEarly this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.\nJust a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.\nAs an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.\nWall Street\nOf those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.\nThe Chart\n\nReaders will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.\nThe Plan\nRegular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\nI am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.\nI am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.\nI think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRKS":0.9,"MRVL":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"MU":0.9,"AMAT":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127750462,"gmtCreate":1624870608856,"gmtModify":1703846662601,"author":{"id":"3572938859732841","authorId":"3572938859732841","name":"KypChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1444bd0e2e7fbbe20b1f93ee9af3700","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572938859732841","idStr":"3572938859732841"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127750462","repostId":"2146002845","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127724031,"gmtCreate":1624870445623,"gmtModify":1703846658098,"author":{"id":"3572938859732841","authorId":"3572938859732841","name":"KypChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1444bd0e2e7fbbe20b1f93ee9af3700","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572938859732841","idStr":"3572938859732841"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127724031","repostId":"1124372919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124372919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624869783,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124372919?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 16:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124372919","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\". Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven,","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.</li>\n <li>However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.</li>\n <li>We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cdcfe41a4b886c29dad01d4512e84e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Lintao Zhang/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Similar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piece<i>Palantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</i>, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:</p>\n<p><b>#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future</b></p>\n<p>NIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>NIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.</p>\n<p>For example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its&nbsp;recent partnership&nbsp;with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.</p>\n<p>Given that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.</p>\n<p><b>#2. Autonomous Mobility &amp; AI Technology</b></p>\n<p>NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"</p>\n<p>Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.</p>\n<p><b>#3. Government Support</b></p>\n<p>Another big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.</p>\n<p>This principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.</p>\n<p>For example, the&nbsp;government recently gave&nbsp;NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.</p>\n<p>Additionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media&nbsp;recently successfully harmed&nbsp;the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.</p>\n<p><b>#4. Global Expansion</b></p>\n<p>NIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.</p>\n<p><b>#5. Crunching The Numbers</b></p>\n<p>Electric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00cdeb70c618caeddbbd16df936194ad\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"572\"></p>\n<p>In fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance&nbsp;expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.</p>\n<p>If NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.</p>\n<p>NIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.</p>\n<p>If the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated&nbsp;that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.</p>\n<p>Combining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p>While the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.</p>\n<p>Of course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a&nbsp;partnership&nbsp;with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.</p>\n<p>On that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)&nbsp;could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.</p>\n<p>Of course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.</p>\n<p>Last, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.</p>\n<p>While not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 16:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124372919","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.\n\nLintao Zhang/Getty Images News\nSimilar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piecePalantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:\n#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future\nNIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.\nNIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.\nFor example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its recent partnership with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.\nGiven that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.\n#2. Autonomous Mobility & AI Technology\nNIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"\nGiven that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.\n#3. Government Support\nAnother big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.\nThis principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.\nFor example, the government recently gave NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.\nAdditionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.\nPerhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media recently successfully harmed the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.\nFurthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.\n#4. Global Expansion\nNIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.\n#5. Crunching The Numbers\nElectric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.\n\nIn fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.\nIf NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.\nNIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.\nIf NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.\nIf the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.\nMeanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.\nMeanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.\nCombining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.\nRisk Analysis\nWhile the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.\nFirst and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.\nOf course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a partnership with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.\nOn that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA) could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.\nFurthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.\nOf course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.\nLast, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.\nInvestor Takeaway\nNIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.\nWhile not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124369989,"gmtCreate":1624744314341,"gmtModify":1703844235399,"author":{"id":"3572938859732841","authorId":"3572938859732841","name":"KypChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1444bd0e2e7fbbe20b1f93ee9af3700","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572938859732841","idStr":"3572938859732841"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awright","listText":"Awright","text":"Awright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124369989","repostId":"1175794606","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128699963,"gmtCreate":1624512452952,"gmtModify":1703838929352,"author":{"id":"3572938859732841","authorId":"3572938859732841","name":"KypChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1444bd0e2e7fbbe20b1f93ee9af3700","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572938859732841","idStr":"3572938859732841"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128699963","repostId":"1197939027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129766737,"gmtCreate":1624397967929,"gmtModify":1703835315150,"author":{"id":"3572938859732841","authorId":"3572938859732841","name":"KypChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1444bd0e2e7fbbe20b1f93ee9af3700","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572938859732841","idStr":"3572938859732841"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah, obesity promotion!","listText":"Yeah, obesity promotion!","text":"Yeah, obesity 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obesity promotion!","listText":"Yeah, obesity promotion!","text":"Yeah, obesity promotion!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129766737","repostId":"1163964594","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166349134,"gmtCreate":1623993548828,"gmtModify":1703826007156,"author":{"id":"3572938859732841","authorId":"3572938859732841","name":"KypChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1444bd0e2e7fbbe20b1f93ee9af3700","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572938859732841","authorIdStr":"3572938859732841"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166349134","repostId":"2144742925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155852983,"gmtCreate":1625404436942,"gmtModify":1703741351743,"author":{"id":"3572938859732841","authorId":"3572938859732841","name":"KypChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1444bd0e2e7fbbe20b1f93ee9af3700","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572938859732841","authorIdStr":"3572938859732841"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice hindsight, thanks.","listText":"Nice hindsight, thanks.","text":"Nice hindsight, thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155852983","repostId":"1104835932","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104835932","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276444,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104835932?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104835932","media":"The Street","summary":"I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor  . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections,","content":"<blockquote>\n <i>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Thinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.</p>\n<p>The range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.</p>\n<p><b>This Week</b></p>\n<p>It was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).</p>\n<p>Early this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.</p>\n<p>Just a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.</p>\n<p>As an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.</p>\n<p><b>Wall Street</b></p>\n<p>Of those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.</p>\n<p><b>The Chart</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c41db815e4b2cbbc0f31979123e544\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Readers will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.</p>\n<p><b>The Plan</b></p>\n<p>Regular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.</p>\n<p>I am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.</p>\n<p>I am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.</p>\n<p>I think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).</p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Is Ripe for Entry: Here's How I'm Playing It\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-03 09:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\n\nThinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","AMAT":"应用材料","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","MU":"美光科技","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/taiwan-semiconductor-is-ripe-for-entry-here-s-how-i-m-playing-it-15702133?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104835932","content_text":"I've been hot for the semis for a good while now because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\n\nThinking about... Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Taiwan Semiconductor reports Q2 financial performance in two weeks, on July 16th. Currently, Wall Street is looking for EPS of $0.93, without much divergence in opinion. This name is not as highly followed across the community of analysts. I can only find four analysts that have gone as far as to make quarterly projections, six that have made annual projections, and just two that have really stuck their necks out and stated a price target at any point in the past six months.\nThe range of EPS expectations for Q2 EPS for TSM, across those four analysts is just $0.91 to $0.95. Wall Street is looking for approximately $13.2 billion in revenue generation for the quarter, which would be year over year sales growth of about 27%. This would be an acceleration in sales growth for a second consecutive quarter.\nThis Week\nIt was Tuesday. DigiTimes reports that Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to record record revenues for June, due to shipments of iPhones showing up in the data. Apparently, reduced purchases by client Bitmain, as China bans Bitcoin mining had not taken the toll on TSM sales as some had expected. Demand for 5nm and 7nm processors had offset the loss of that mining business as the firm shipped chips for Apple's (AAPL) smartphones in time to appear in June's numbers. The expectation is that the firm stays on course for 20% sales growth for the fiscal year, and that June could be flat from May (which is a good thing).\nEarly this (Friday) morning, news broke that Apple and Intel (INTC) will be the first customers to test TSM's 3nm production technology, which if all goes well, deploys toward the back half of 2022. Nikkei Asia reports that Intel is planning at least two projects to design CPUs for notebooks and data centers around the new 3nm chips.\nJust a quick tutorial. TSM's 5nm chips are the most advanced chips available and if you have an iPhone 12, you have one of these chips. TSM is indicating that the new 3nm chips will offer a 10% to 15% boost to computing performance compared to the current 5nm product, while also reducing power consumption by 25% to 30%.\nAs an aside, Intel announced the delay of the Sapphire Rapids data center processor earlier this week. While this is seen around Wall Street as yet another chance for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and even Nvidia (NVDA) , to tackle even more market share away from the lumbering giant, but also makes at least this investor wonder just how Intel thinks they are going to get to a point anytime soon where they can compete with the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor as a global foundry to other chip designers.\nWall Street\nOf those few analysts that I mentioned who actually cover the name, only one reacted to this news. Susquehanna's five star (rated at TipRanks) analyst Mehdi Hosseini upgraded the name from \"Negative\" to \"Neutral\", while upping his target price from $85 to $105. The only other analyst with a recent target price is Jim Kelleher of Argus Research (also five stars). Kelleher initiated the name a week earlier as a \"Buy\" with a $150 target.\nThe Chart\n\nReaders will see that in late April, these shares managed to turn a descending triangle (which is a bearish pattern) into a flat basing pattern without ever allowing the triangle to close. Since bottoming, TSM has retaken both the 21 day EMA and the 50 day SMA, using the former as support on weakness just yesterday.\nThe Plan\nRegular followers well know that I have been hot for the semis for a good while now, in spite of, or rather because of the widely covered shortages that are creating significant pricing power.\nI am already long AMD, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) , both of whom have been solid investments. I am long Micron (MU) , which looked good until this week. I am long Nvidia which has simply been epic.\nI am also long semiconductor equipment names... Applied Materials (AMAT) , and Brooks Automation (BRKS) , two names that have been good, and meh, respectively. I probably have room for a large foundry that will probably make short work of Intel (my opinion) once Intel tries to move in on their business.\nI think TSM is ripe for entry, perhaps to the tune of 1/8 of intended position size. I would expect to add a second tranche of 1/8 at either a test of the 21 day EMA or a retaking of the $122 level, which is our pivot. Our target price upon taking that pivot will be $144, while for now (after purchasing these shares), I will go with a panic point of $110 (8% discount to initial entry).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRKS":0.9,"MRVL":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"MU":0.9,"AMAT":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127724031,"gmtCreate":1624870445623,"gmtModify":1703846658098,"author":{"id":"3572938859732841","authorId":"3572938859732841","name":"KypChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1444bd0e2e7fbbe20b1f93ee9af3700","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572938859732841","authorIdStr":"3572938859732841"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127724031","repostId":"1124372919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124372919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624869783,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124372919?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 16:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124372919","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\". Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven,","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.</li>\n <li>However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.</li>\n <li>We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cdcfe41a4b886c29dad01d4512e84e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Lintao Zhang/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Similar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piece<i>Palantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</i>, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:</p>\n<p><b>#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future</b></p>\n<p>NIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>NIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.</p>\n<p>For example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its&nbsp;recent partnership&nbsp;with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.</p>\n<p>Given that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.</p>\n<p><b>#2. Autonomous Mobility &amp; AI Technology</b></p>\n<p>NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"</p>\n<p>Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.</p>\n<p><b>#3. Government Support</b></p>\n<p>Another big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.</p>\n<p>This principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.</p>\n<p>For example, the&nbsp;government recently gave&nbsp;NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.</p>\n<p>Additionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media&nbsp;recently successfully harmed&nbsp;the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.</p>\n<p><b>#4. Global Expansion</b></p>\n<p>NIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.</p>\n<p><b>#5. Crunching The Numbers</b></p>\n<p>Electric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00cdeb70c618caeddbbd16df936194ad\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"572\"></p>\n<p>In fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance&nbsp;expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.</p>\n<p>If NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.</p>\n<p>NIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.</p>\n<p>If the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated&nbsp;that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.</p>\n<p>Combining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p>While the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.</p>\n<p>Of course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a&nbsp;partnership&nbsp;with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.</p>\n<p>On that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)&nbsp;could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.</p>\n<p>Of course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.</p>\n<p>Last, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.</p>\n<p>While not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 16:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124372919","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.\n\nLintao Zhang/Getty Images News\nSimilar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piecePalantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:\n#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future\nNIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.\nNIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.\nFor example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its recent partnership with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.\nGiven that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.\n#2. Autonomous Mobility & AI Technology\nNIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"\nGiven that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.\n#3. Government Support\nAnother big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.\nThis principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.\nFor example, the government recently gave NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.\nAdditionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.\nPerhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media recently successfully harmed the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.\nFurthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.\n#4. Global Expansion\nNIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.\n#5. Crunching The Numbers\nElectric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.\n\nIn fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.\nIf NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.\nNIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.\nIf NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.\nIf the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.\nMeanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.\nMeanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.\nCombining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.\nRisk Analysis\nWhile the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.\nFirst and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.\nOf course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a partnership with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.\nOn that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA) could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.\nFurthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.\nOf course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.\nLast, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.\nInvestor Takeaway\nNIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.\nWhile not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124369989,"gmtCreate":1624744314341,"gmtModify":1703844235399,"author":{"id":"3572938859732841","authorId":"3572938859732841","name":"KypChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1444bd0e2e7fbbe20b1f93ee9af3700","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572938859732841","authorIdStr":"3572938859732841"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awright","listText":"Awright","text":"Awright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124369989","repostId":"1175794606","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127750462,"gmtCreate":1624870608856,"gmtModify":1703846662601,"author":{"id":"3572938859732841","authorId":"3572938859732841","name":"KypChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1444bd0e2e7fbbe20b1f93ee9af3700","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572938859732841","authorIdStr":"3572938859732841"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127750462","repostId":"2146002845","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}