#Winning Trades Disclaimer: Here, I am just sharing what I may be doing. this is not an investment or trading advice. I am not responsible for your own trades and investments decisions. Most of us must have heard about VIX as the "fear indicator" for the S&P500 Index. The general understanding is the higher the VIX, the higher the fear. According to wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX), VIX is a volatility index derived from S&P 500 options for the 30 days following the measurement date,[5] with the price of each option representing the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. The resulting VIX index formulation provides a measure of expected market volatility on which expectations of further stock market volatility in the near future mig
phagefish
option sellers by nature but occasional buyer of Options.
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$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
$Apple(AAPL)$
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
Exploiting VIX spikes and crashes using Options
Exploiting VIX spikes and crashes using Options
$VIXW 20240424 16.0 PUT$ managed to buy this vid when Vix spiked up above 16. What goes up needs to come down. I have either to hold till expiration, 12 days for Vix to go down further towards recent 13 support. This is cash settled at expiration. Or if it falls to around $13 before expiration, will just close it.
Core Inflation Rate Disappoints?
CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/09/stock-market-today-live-updates.html) "The consumer price index in March rose faster than economists had estimated, suggesting stubborn inflation and pushing back expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The CPI rose 0.4% for the month and 3.5% year-over-year. Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecasted an increase of 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year on year. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated 0.4% from the previous month while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared to estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively." Focusing on CORE CPI trend over a year, it is a steady downward trend. considering that 3.8% for Feb Core CPI and it is still a 3.8% for Mar, we may be taking a breather. The consensus
Core Inflation Rate Disappoints?
There seems to be a good support at the $800s. I sold a bull put spread at $810/805. Hope that expires OTM. Current rsi is one of the lowest in recent months. Estimate it would fall to below 35rsi if it really falls to below $800. Hope not.
Sadly, this may push up CPI. Hope the Gaza crisis will tuned down to a two party conflict. All the hard work in reducing inflation around the world do not get undone by oil prices spikes. Looking at #URA the uranium energy ETF. Waiting for it to fall. All the best everyone. May we have peace and prosperity for all.
Earning season is round the corner. Options selling galore
Earnings galore coming. Here are some estimated earning dates of some of our favorite stocks: TICKER Earnings/Relevant Options Expiration #TSLA 23Apr/26Apr #GOOG 23Apr/26Apr #MSFT 23Apr/26Apr #META 24Apr/26Apr #AMZN 25Apr/26Apr #AAPL 2May/3May #NVDA 22May/24May Options that expire right after earnings using have their very high Implied Volatilty (IV) before earnings. Regardless of bad or good results after earnings, since the results are known, IV suffers from IV crush. The general trend is that even at the same underlying's price, high IV options (puts or calls) will fetch more premium while low IV options (puts or calls) will fetch lower premium. This trend gives options sellers an edge because if the options are sold before earnings can get nice premium and se
$TSLA 20240517 260.0 CALL$ sold some covered calls for income. Worried that it will be called away.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
$TSLA 20240517 260.0 CALL$ sold some covered calls off my Tsla. My effort to keep lowering my cost basis.
CPI on coming Wed
All the bets are again on the table for CPI print this Wed. Would it be higher than consensus, in line or below? How would the Fed see those numbers? I suspect that the Fed already know at least the preliminary numbers. Bullard came out and spoke out for a base case of 3 rate cuts. Suggestive that we are expecting a lower countertrend CPI print this Wed. I am excited but contemplating on how to trade this CPI Wed. I have set up by buying a VIX put $16 Apr 26th expiration yesterday when VIX was beginning to come down (around $16). I am expecting it to fall even lower to around $13 if CPI print turns out to be bullish. Will close my VIX put when VIX is around $13.50. Good luck everyone..
$Vuzix(VUZI)$ Vuzix Shares Are Trading Higher for the past few days. The Company Announced the Commencement of Online Sales for Its Vuzix Shield Smart Safety Glasses. Hope earnings are fantastic.
$SOFI 20240419 10.0 CALL$ closed my covered calls. Free money. please follow me and like. Thanks. Hoping to be star contributor.
$VIXW 20240424 16.0 PUT$ bought one ATM contract of Vix puts. Expecting VIX to fall back down to 14.
Yes. Absolutely. I will buy puts for my shares that I will want to keep. The puts is a bearish instrument thus it is equivalent to shorting. That is more economical as the total cost is the cost of the puts. There is no borrowing cost arising from shorting.
Always try to sell your covered calls above or at your costs basis. For high IV stocks like TSLA on a downtrend, there is always the fear of selling covered calls at the bottom, and then the rebound take out your covered calls at strike price. What I do is to diversify my calls across different expiration dates and different strikes. The further strikes, the further out is expiration. Good luck.
$ON 20240503 85.0 CALL$ have been selling covered calls, selling cash secured puts and buying and selling LEAPS calls on $ON. current shares cost is $85.50. actual cost is down to $1.68 after 1.5years of hardwork. But very happy. Hoping to keep doing it to be negative costs.
$AI 20240621 37.5 CALL$ have been selling covered calls off my AI shares. Managed to lower my cost at $44 now to $31 over a year period. Stocks is still underwater but it will rebound. Keep selling covered calls.
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