TL28 personal page - To The Moon

TL28

No personal profile

16Follow

4Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2021-03-10

45.10

@Nauyux:$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$u guys buying at what price?

2021-03-02

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming

2021-03-01

Its now or never

2021-03-01

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3574039001940187","uuid":"3574039001940187","gmtCreate":1614091537607,"gmtModify":1614091537607,"name":"TL28","pinyin":"tl28","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":4,"headSize":16,"tweetSize":4,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.02%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.90%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":323415097,"gmtCreate":1615367229519,"gmtModify":1704781714606,"author":{"id":"3574039001940187","authorId":"3574039001940187","name":"TL28","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574039001940187","idStr":"3574039001940187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"45.10","listText":"45.10","text":"45.10","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323415097","repostId":"323411083","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":323411083,"gmtCreate":1615367027442,"gmtModify":1704781709441,"author":{"id":"3571798621910813","authorId":"3571798621910813","name":"Nauyux","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad476e3a868c5fa0a401573883e9c2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571798621910813","idStr":"3571798621910813"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>u guys buying at what price?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>u guys buying at what price?","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$u guys buying at what price?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323411083","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362698846,"gmtCreate":1614616986085,"gmtModify":1704773208608,"author":{"id":"3574039001940187","authorId":"3574039001940187","name":"TL28","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574039001940187","idStr":"3574039001940187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362698846","repostId":"1105841550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105841550","pubTimestamp":1614600153,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105841550?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 20:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105841550","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark ri","content":"<p><u><b>Summary:</b></u></p>\n<blockquote>\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n <b>analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster</b>showing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.\n</blockquote>\n<p>A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.</p>\n<p>This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.</p>\n<p><b>Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology</b></p>\n<p>This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.</p>\n<p>The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.</p>\n<p><i>Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p>\n<p>The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.</p>\n<p><i>Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p>\n<p><u><b>Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier</b></u></p>\n<p>The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"><i>Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group</i></p>\n<p>Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.<b>The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100</b>. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\"><b>If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 20:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKR":"Ark Restaurants Corp","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internation ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105841550","content_text":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.\n\nA little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.\nThis disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.\nArk position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology\nThis week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that she had increased their position in Tesla using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.\nThe tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.\nStocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nThe table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.\nTop positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nCorrelations on the rise and drawdown outlier\nThe best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.\nSource: Bloomberg and Saxo Group\nAnother way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.\nIf outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362196288,"gmtCreate":1614604793144,"gmtModify":1704772944292,"author":{"id":"3574039001940187","authorId":"3574039001940187","name":"TL28","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574039001940187","idStr":"3574039001940187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Its now or never","listText":"Its now or never","text":"Its now or never","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8d77405bb054a7cfd26ddfdb1f4c60","width":"1080","height":"2709"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362196288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362191243,"gmtCreate":1614604611882,"gmtModify":1704772941849,"author":{"id":"3574039001940187","authorId":"3574039001940187","name":"TL28","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574039001940187","idStr":"3574039001940187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362191243","repostId":"1182493843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182493843","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614603192,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182493843?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 20:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182493843","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 1) U.S. stock futures traded higher in early pre-market trade after the House of Representati","content":"<p>(March 1) U.S. stock futures traded higher in early pre-market trade&nbsp;after the House of Representatives voted early Saturday morning to approve&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion Coronavirus relief package.</p><p>Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up more than 200 points,&nbsp;or 0.91%, while S&amp;P 500 futures gained nearly 1%, Nasdaq-100 futures gained&nbsp;more than 1%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury note yield dipped to 1.386% early&nbsp;in Sunday trading, then slowly regained ground, last at 1.412%. Bond prices&nbsp;move inversely to yields.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c031cdca3de539303c5ef6505815a4d6\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Broker, EST 07:46</span></p><p>The House passed the $1.9 trillion Biden stimulus plan Saturday,&nbsp;including $1,400 stimulus checks for many Americans. It also has a $15 minimum&nbsp;wage that can't be included under Senate rules for a budget reconciliation&nbsp;bill. A couple of moderate Democratic Senators will play a key role in how&nbsp;large the stimulus plan ultimately is.</p><p>The Caixin China manufacturing index fell 0.5 point in February to&nbsp;50.9. Earlier, China's official manufacturing index fell from 51.3 in January&nbsp;to 50.6 in February. The services sector gauge fell 1 point to 51.4. Readings&nbsp;above 50 indicate growth.</p><p><b>Bitcoin Price</b></p><p>The Bitcoin price traded below $47,000 Monday morning, off Sunday's&nbsp;lows. The cryptocurrency had trended lower since topping $58,000 on Sunday,&nbsp;Feb. 21. It's still above the sub-$40,000 level when Tesla disclosed it had&nbsp;bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin.</p><p>Bitcoin and some related plays, such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust(GBTC), has been falling toward their 50-day lines. That could be a key level&nbsp;of support.</p><p>Ethereum also has fallen sharply in the past week, as speculative&nbsp;investing sours. Dogecoin, which Elon Musk has personally invested in, also has&nbsp;sold off.</p><p><b>US Market Last week</b></p><p>Last week, the Dow lost 1.8%, the S&amp;P 500 fell 2.5%, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite slid 4.9%. That marked the Nasdaq's biggest slide since the&nbsp;week ended Oct. 30, according to FactSet data. February was still a winning&nbsp;month for equites though, with the Dow up 3.2%, the S&amp;P 500 rising 2.6%,&nbsp;and the Nasdaq inching up 0.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab38a3d6bc5469598c787baea5b80d0c\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Latest News</b></p><p>1) AstraZeneca(AZN) – The drugmakersold its stakein&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a> for more than $1 billion, according to the London Times. The paper said the sale occurred after Moderna shares soared following approval of its Covid-19 vaccine, although the exact timing was unclear. Moderna shares rose 1.8% in premarket trading.</p><p>2) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a> – J&amp;J rose 2.1% in the premarket after its Covid-19 vaccinereceived emergency use authorizationfrom the Food and Drug Administration over the weekend, followed by an endorsementfrom the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Administration officials say deliveries of the vaccine should begin Tuesday.</p><p>3) Saudi Arabian Airlines plans to order 70 airliners from Boeing&nbsp;and Airbus, according to Saudi news outlet Maaal; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a>  up&nbsp;2% in&nbsp;the&nbsp;pre-market.</p><p>4) The group of \"meme\" stocks, led by videogame retailer&nbsp;GameStop Corp.that have been volatile in recent weeks as investors on a Reddit&nbsp;subgroup have egged each other on, were active again in premarket trade Monday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>  shares were up 5% pre-market, while shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> &nbsp;the world's biggest cinema chain, were up 12%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">BlackBerry</a> &nbsp;was up 3.8%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">Naked Brand</a>  was up 9.5%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Koss</a>&nbsp;a maker of headphones, was up 2.9%.</p><p>5)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.B\">Berkshire Hathaway</a> – Berkshire reported a 23% increase in fourth-quarter profit to $35.8 billion, helped by a surge in the value of Berkshire’s stock market holdings. Berkshire alsobought back nearly $25 billion in stockduring 2020, with CEO Warren Buffett explaining in his annual letter that the move increased shareholder value while still leaving ample cash for other opportunities that might arise. Berkshire Class B shares rose 2.1% premarket.</p><p>6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>– Twitter rose 1% in premarket trading after it announced its intention to sell $1.25 billion in convertible notes due in 2026, subject to market conditions.</p><p>7)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Wal-Mart</a> – The retailer dropped its $35 minimum charge for its two-hour express delivery service. However, the $35 minimum will still apply for regularly delivery, curbside pickup and Walmart+ delivery services. Walmart shares rose 1% in the premarket.</p><p>8)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> – Citigroup shares rose 2.1% in premarket trading as Jane Fraser takes over as Chief Executive Officer of the bank today, becoming the first woman to run a major U.S. bank.</p><p>9)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HGV\">Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.</a>  – The timeshare company posted a wider-than-expected loss for its latest quarter, while revenue was also below Wall Street forecasts. Hilton Grand Vacations said the pandemic has created a challenging environment but said 85% of its properties are now open and operating. Its shares fell 2.3% in premarket trading.</p><p>10)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NRG\">NRG Energy Inc</a> – The energy provider reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and also said the financial impact of the extreme weather in Texas is expected to be within NRG’s current guidance range. The company’s shares jumped 5.5% in the premarket.</p><p>11)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PRGO\">Perrigo Co PLC</a> – Perrigo shares initially jumped 4.1% in premarket action after the drugmaker announced a deal to sell its Generic Rx Pharmaceuticals business to private-equity firm Altaris Capital for $1.55 billion in cash and other considerations. The gains disappeared, however, after Perrigo reported lower-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter as sales fell.</p><p>12)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LHX\">L3Harris Technologies, Inc.</a> – The defense contractor struck a deal to sell its military training division to Canadian aerospace companyCAE(CAE) for $1.05 billion. The deal will enhance CAE’s defense business.</p><p>13)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LOGI\">Logitech International SA</a>  – Logitech shares fell 1.5% premarket after it saidoperating income for fiscal 2022 would be between $750 million and $800 million, down from the $1.1 billion it expects to report for fiscal 2021. Logitech had seen a boom in demand for devices like computer mice and keyboards due to the pandemic, with more people working and attending school from home.</p><p>14)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWLO\">Twilio</a> – Twilio is in talks to invest up to $750 million in messaging company Syniverse Technologies, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. They said that the expected investment by the cloud communications company would value Syniverse – currently owned by private-equity firmCarlyle Group(CG) – at $2 billion to $3 billion. Twilio rose 2.3% in premarket action.</p><p>15)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VACQ\">Vector Acquisition Corp</a> – The special purpose acquisition company will take space transportation startup Rocket Lab publicthrough a merger dealthat values Rocket Lab at $4.1 billion. The deal is expected to be completed during the second quarter. Vector shares surged 17.1% in premarket trading.</p><p>16)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a> – The home goods retailer’s shares rose 2.1% in the premarket after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold,” saying it sees an improved picture for long-term profitability and a faster growth trajectory.</p><p>17)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTLT\">Catalent</a> – The pharmaceutical technology company has been struggling with vaccine production problems, according to a report in the Financial Times. Catalent fills vaccine vials for both Johnson &amp; Johnson and Moderna, and the report said issues with automation technology have meant that vials have had to be checked by hand.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-01 20:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 1) U.S. stock futures traded higher in early pre-market trade&nbsp;after the House of Representatives voted early Saturday morning to approve&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion Coronavirus relief package.</p><p>Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up more than 200 points,&nbsp;or 0.91%, while S&amp;P 500 futures gained nearly 1%, Nasdaq-100 futures gained&nbsp;more than 1%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury note yield dipped to 1.386% early&nbsp;in Sunday trading, then slowly regained ground, last at 1.412%. Bond prices&nbsp;move inversely to yields.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c031cdca3de539303c5ef6505815a4d6\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Broker, EST 07:46</span></p><p>The House passed the $1.9 trillion Biden stimulus plan Saturday,&nbsp;including $1,400 stimulus checks for many Americans. It also has a $15 minimum&nbsp;wage that can't be included under Senate rules for a budget reconciliation&nbsp;bill. A couple of moderate Democratic Senators will play a key role in how&nbsp;large the stimulus plan ultimately is.</p><p>The Caixin China manufacturing index fell 0.5 point in February to&nbsp;50.9. Earlier, China's official manufacturing index fell from 51.3 in January&nbsp;to 50.6 in February. The services sector gauge fell 1 point to 51.4. Readings&nbsp;above 50 indicate growth.</p><p><b>Bitcoin Price</b></p><p>The Bitcoin price traded below $47,000 Monday morning, off Sunday's&nbsp;lows. The cryptocurrency had trended lower since topping $58,000 on Sunday,&nbsp;Feb. 21. It's still above the sub-$40,000 level when Tesla disclosed it had&nbsp;bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin.</p><p>Bitcoin and some related plays, such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust(GBTC), has been falling toward their 50-day lines. That could be a key level&nbsp;of support.</p><p>Ethereum also has fallen sharply in the past week, as speculative&nbsp;investing sours. Dogecoin, which Elon Musk has personally invested in, also has&nbsp;sold off.</p><p><b>US Market Last week</b></p><p>Last week, the Dow lost 1.8%, the S&amp;P 500 fell 2.5%, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite slid 4.9%. That marked the Nasdaq's biggest slide since the&nbsp;week ended Oct. 30, according to FactSet data. February was still a winning&nbsp;month for equites though, with the Dow up 3.2%, the S&amp;P 500 rising 2.6%,&nbsp;and the Nasdaq inching up 0.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab38a3d6bc5469598c787baea5b80d0c\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Latest News</b></p><p>1) AstraZeneca(AZN) – The drugmakersold its stakein&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a> for more than $1 billion, according to the London Times. The paper said the sale occurred after Moderna shares soared following approval of its Covid-19 vaccine, although the exact timing was unclear. Moderna shares rose 1.8% in premarket trading.</p><p>2) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a> – J&amp;J rose 2.1% in the premarket after its Covid-19 vaccinereceived emergency use authorizationfrom the Food and Drug Administration over the weekend, followed by an endorsementfrom the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Administration officials say deliveries of the vaccine should begin Tuesday.</p><p>3) Saudi Arabian Airlines plans to order 70 airliners from Boeing&nbsp;and Airbus, according to Saudi news outlet Maaal; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a>  up&nbsp;2% in&nbsp;the&nbsp;pre-market.</p><p>4) The group of \"meme\" stocks, led by videogame retailer&nbsp;GameStop Corp.that have been volatile in recent weeks as investors on a Reddit&nbsp;subgroup have egged each other on, were active again in premarket trade Monday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>  shares were up 5% pre-market, while shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> &nbsp;the world's biggest cinema chain, were up 12%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">BlackBerry</a> &nbsp;was up 3.8%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">Naked Brand</a>  was up 9.5%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Koss</a>&nbsp;a maker of headphones, was up 2.9%.</p><p>5)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.B\">Berkshire Hathaway</a> – Berkshire reported a 23% increase in fourth-quarter profit to $35.8 billion, helped by a surge in the value of Berkshire’s stock market holdings. Berkshire alsobought back nearly $25 billion in stockduring 2020, with CEO Warren Buffett explaining in his annual letter that the move increased shareholder value while still leaving ample cash for other opportunities that might arise. Berkshire Class B shares rose 2.1% premarket.</p><p>6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>– Twitter rose 1% in premarket trading after it announced its intention to sell $1.25 billion in convertible notes due in 2026, subject to market conditions.</p><p>7)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Wal-Mart</a> – The retailer dropped its $35 minimum charge for its two-hour express delivery service. However, the $35 minimum will still apply for regularly delivery, curbside pickup and Walmart+ delivery services. Walmart shares rose 1% in the premarket.</p><p>8)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> – Citigroup shares rose 2.1% in premarket trading as Jane Fraser takes over as Chief Executive Officer of the bank today, becoming the first woman to run a major U.S. bank.</p><p>9)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HGV\">Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.</a>  – The timeshare company posted a wider-than-expected loss for its latest quarter, while revenue was also below Wall Street forecasts. Hilton Grand Vacations said the pandemic has created a challenging environment but said 85% of its properties are now open and operating. Its shares fell 2.3% in premarket trading.</p><p>10)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NRG\">NRG Energy Inc</a> – The energy provider reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and also said the financial impact of the extreme weather in Texas is expected to be within NRG’s current guidance range. The company’s shares jumped 5.5% in the premarket.</p><p>11)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PRGO\">Perrigo Co PLC</a> – Perrigo shares initially jumped 4.1% in premarket action after the drugmaker announced a deal to sell its Generic Rx Pharmaceuticals business to private-equity firm Altaris Capital for $1.55 billion in cash and other considerations. The gains disappeared, however, after Perrigo reported lower-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter as sales fell.</p><p>12)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LHX\">L3Harris Technologies, Inc.</a> – The defense contractor struck a deal to sell its military training division to Canadian aerospace companyCAE(CAE) for $1.05 billion. The deal will enhance CAE’s defense business.</p><p>13)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LOGI\">Logitech International SA</a>  – Logitech shares fell 1.5% premarket after it saidoperating income for fiscal 2022 would be between $750 million and $800 million, down from the $1.1 billion it expects to report for fiscal 2021. Logitech had seen a boom in demand for devices like computer mice and keyboards due to the pandemic, with more people working and attending school from home.</p><p>14)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWLO\">Twilio</a> – Twilio is in talks to invest up to $750 million in messaging company Syniverse Technologies, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. They said that the expected investment by the cloud communications company would value Syniverse – currently owned by private-equity firmCarlyle Group(CG) – at $2 billion to $3 billion. Twilio rose 2.3% in premarket action.</p><p>15)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VACQ\">Vector Acquisition Corp</a> – The special purpose acquisition company will take space transportation startup Rocket Lab publicthrough a merger dealthat values Rocket Lab at $4.1 billion. The deal is expected to be completed during the second quarter. Vector shares surged 17.1% in premarket trading.</p><p>16)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a> – The home goods retailer’s shares rose 2.1% in the premarket after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold,” saying it sees an improved picture for long-term profitability and a faster growth trajectory.</p><p>17)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTLT\">Catalent</a> – The pharmaceutical technology company has been struggling with vaccine production problems, according to a report in the Financial Times. Catalent fills vaccine vials for both Johnson &amp; Johnson and Moderna, and the report said issues with automation technology have meant that vials have had to be checked by hand.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182493843","content_text":"(March 1) U.S. stock futures traded higher in early pre-market trade after the House of Representatives voted early Saturday morning to approve President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion Coronavirus relief package.Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up more than 200 points, or 0.91%, while S&P 500 futures gained nearly 1%, Nasdaq-100 futures gained more than 1%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury note yield dipped to 1.386% early in Sunday trading, then slowly regained ground, last at 1.412%. Bond prices move inversely to yields.*Source From Tiger Broker, EST 07:46The House passed the $1.9 trillion Biden stimulus plan Saturday, including $1,400 stimulus checks for many Americans. It also has a $15 minimum wage that can't be included under Senate rules for a budget reconciliation bill. A couple of moderate Democratic Senators will play a key role in how large the stimulus plan ultimately is.The Caixin China manufacturing index fell 0.5 point in February to 50.9. Earlier, China's official manufacturing index fell from 51.3 in January to 50.6 in February. The services sector gauge fell 1 point to 51.4. Readings above 50 indicate growth.Bitcoin PriceThe Bitcoin price traded below $47,000 Monday morning, off Sunday's lows. The cryptocurrency had trended lower since topping $58,000 on Sunday, Feb. 21. It's still above the sub-$40,000 level when Tesla disclosed it had bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin.Bitcoin and some related plays, such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust(GBTC), has been falling toward their 50-day lines. That could be a key level of support.Ethereum also has fallen sharply in the past week, as speculative investing sours. Dogecoin, which Elon Musk has personally invested in, also has sold off.US Market Last weekLast week, the Dow lost 1.8%, the S&P 500 fell 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 4.9%. That marked the Nasdaq's biggest slide since the week ended Oct. 30, according to FactSet data. February was still a winning month for equites though, with the Dow up 3.2%, the S&P 500 rising 2.6%, and the Nasdaq inching up 0.9%.Latest News1) AstraZeneca(AZN) – The drugmakersold its stakein Moderna, Inc. for more than $1 billion, according to the London Times. The paper said the sale occurred after Moderna shares soared following approval of its Covid-19 vaccine, although the exact timing was unclear. Moderna shares rose 1.8% in premarket trading.2) Johnson & Johnson – J&J rose 2.1% in the premarket after its Covid-19 vaccinereceived emergency use authorizationfrom the Food and Drug Administration over the weekend, followed by an endorsementfrom the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Administration officials say deliveries of the vaccine should begin Tuesday.3) Saudi Arabian Airlines plans to order 70 airliners from Boeing and Airbus, according to Saudi news outlet Maaal; Boeing  up 2% in the pre-market.4) The group of \"meme\" stocks, led by videogame retailer GameStop Corp.that have been volatile in recent weeks as investors on a Reddit subgroup have egged each other on, were active again in premarket trade Monday.GameStop  shares were up 5% pre-market, while shares of AMC Entertainment  the world's biggest cinema chain, were up 12%. BlackBerry  was up 3.8%, and Naked Brand  was up 9.5%. Koss a maker of headphones, was up 2.9%.5) Berkshire Hathaway – Berkshire reported a 23% increase in fourth-quarter profit to $35.8 billion, helped by a surge in the value of Berkshire’s stock market holdings. Berkshire alsobought back nearly $25 billion in stockduring 2020, with CEO Warren Buffett explaining in his annual letter that the move increased shareholder value while still leaving ample cash for other opportunities that might arise. Berkshire Class B shares rose 2.1% premarket.6) Twitter– Twitter rose 1% in premarket trading after it announced its intention to sell $1.25 billion in convertible notes due in 2026, subject to market conditions.7) Wal-Mart – The retailer dropped its $35 minimum charge for its two-hour express delivery service. However, the $35 minimum will still apply for regularly delivery, curbside pickup and Walmart+ delivery services. Walmart shares rose 1% in the premarket.8) Citigroup – Citigroup shares rose 2.1% in premarket trading as Jane Fraser takes over as Chief Executive Officer of the bank today, becoming the first woman to run a major U.S. bank.9) Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.  – The timeshare company posted a wider-than-expected loss for its latest quarter, while revenue was also below Wall Street forecasts. Hilton Grand Vacations said the pandemic has created a challenging environment but said 85% of its properties are now open and operating. Its shares fell 2.3% in premarket trading.10) NRG Energy Inc – The energy provider reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and also said the financial impact of the extreme weather in Texas is expected to be within NRG’s current guidance range. The company’s shares jumped 5.5% in the premarket.11) Perrigo Co PLC – Perrigo shares initially jumped 4.1% in premarket action after the drugmaker announced a deal to sell its Generic Rx Pharmaceuticals business to private-equity firm Altaris Capital for $1.55 billion in cash and other considerations. The gains disappeared, however, after Perrigo reported lower-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter as sales fell.12) L3Harris Technologies, Inc. – The defense contractor struck a deal to sell its military training division to Canadian aerospace companyCAE(CAE) for $1.05 billion. The deal will enhance CAE’s defense business.13) Logitech International SA  – Logitech shares fell 1.5% premarket after it saidoperating income for fiscal 2022 would be between $750 million and $800 million, down from the $1.1 billion it expects to report for fiscal 2021. Logitech had seen a boom in demand for devices like computer mice and keyboards due to the pandemic, with more people working and attending school from home.14) Twilio – Twilio is in talks to invest up to $750 million in messaging company Syniverse Technologies, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. They said that the expected investment by the cloud communications company would value Syniverse – currently owned by private-equity firmCarlyle Group(CG) – at $2 billion to $3 billion. Twilio rose 2.3% in premarket action.15) Vector Acquisition Corp – The special purpose acquisition company will take space transportation startup Rocket Lab publicthrough a merger dealthat values Rocket Lab at $4.1 billion. The deal is expected to be completed during the second quarter. Vector shares surged 17.1% in premarket trading.16) Wayfair – The home goods retailer’s shares rose 2.1% in the premarket after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to “buy” from “hold,” saying it sees an improved picture for long-term profitability and a faster growth trajectory.17) Catalent – The pharmaceutical technology company has been struggling with vaccine production problems, according to a report in the Financial Times. Catalent fills vaccine vials for both Johnson & Johnson and Moderna, and the report said issues with automation technology have meant that vials have had to be checked by hand.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":323415097,"gmtCreate":1615367229519,"gmtModify":1704781714606,"author":{"id":"3574039001940187","authorId":"3574039001940187","name":"TL28","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574039001940187","idStr":"3574039001940187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"45.10","listText":"45.10","text":"45.10","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323415097","repostId":"323411083","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":323411083,"gmtCreate":1615367027442,"gmtModify":1704781709441,"author":{"id":"3571798621910813","authorId":"3571798621910813","name":"Nauyux","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad476e3a868c5fa0a401573883e9c2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571798621910813","idStr":"3571798621910813"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>u guys buying at what price?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>u guys buying at what price?","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$u guys buying at what price?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323411083","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362698846,"gmtCreate":1614616986085,"gmtModify":1704773208608,"author":{"id":"3574039001940187","authorId":"3574039001940187","name":"TL28","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574039001940187","idStr":"3574039001940187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362698846","repostId":"1105841550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105841550","pubTimestamp":1614600153,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105841550?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 20:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105841550","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark ri","content":"<p><u><b>Summary:</b></u></p>\n<blockquote>\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n <b>analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster</b>showing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.\n</blockquote>\n<p>A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.</p>\n<p>This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.</p>\n<p><b>Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology</b></p>\n<p>This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.</p>\n<p>The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.</p>\n<p><i>Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p>\n<p>The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.</p>\n<p><i>Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p>\n<p><u><b>Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier</b></u></p>\n<p>The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"><i>Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group</i></p>\n<p>Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.<b>The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100</b>. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\"><b>If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 20:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKR":"Ark Restaurants Corp","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internation ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105841550","content_text":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.\n\nA little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.\nThis disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.\nArk position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology\nThis week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that she had increased their position in Tesla using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.\nThe tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.\nStocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nThe table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.\nTop positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nCorrelations on the rise and drawdown outlier\nThe best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.\nSource: Bloomberg and Saxo Group\nAnother way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.\nIf outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362196288,"gmtCreate":1614604793144,"gmtModify":1704772944292,"author":{"id":"3574039001940187","authorId":"3574039001940187","name":"TL28","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574039001940187","idStr":"3574039001940187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Its now or never","listText":"Its now or never","text":"Its now or never","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8d77405bb054a7cfd26ddfdb1f4c60","width":"1080","height":"2709"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362196288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362191243,"gmtCreate":1614604611882,"gmtModify":1704772941849,"author":{"id":"3574039001940187","authorId":"3574039001940187","name":"TL28","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574039001940187","idStr":"3574039001940187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362191243","repostId":"1182493843","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}