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abelxie
12-09
$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$
abelxie
11-08
$中芯国际(00981)$
abelxie
10-09
$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$
abelxie
06-03
$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$
abelxie
05-28
$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$
abelxie
05-07
$腾讯控股ADR(TCEHY)$
abelxie
04-30
$腾讯控股ADR(TCEHY)$
abelxie
04-27
$腾讯控股ADR(TCEHY)$
abelxie
2023-06-07
$腾讯控股(00700)$
[强]
abelxie
2023-05-09
$腾讯控股(00700)$
[财迷]
abelxie
2023-04-21
$腾讯控股(00700)$
[强]
abelxie
2023-04-19
$理想汽车(LI)$
[财迷]
abelxie
2023-03-01
666
港股早盘持续走高,恒生科技指数大涨4.5%
abelxie
2023-03-01
666
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abelxie
2023-02-01
[强]
理想汽车1月交付新车15141辆,同比增长23.4%
abelxie
2021-07-04
O M G
国家网信办下架“滴滴出行”App,滴滴回应:认真整改
abelxie
2021-05-31
?
恒指公司:京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数
abelxie
2021-05-01
666
喜马拉雅递交赴美上市申请,一季度营收增超65%
abelxie
2021-05-01
666
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abelxie
2021-04-29
666
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11:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股早盘持续走高,恒生科技指数大涨4.5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122898184","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三,港股早盘持续走高,恒生指数涨幅扩大至3%,国企指数涨约3.5%,红筹指数涨超3%。恒生科技指数涨约4.5%。科网股持续走高,网易-S涨超7%,舜宇光学科技涨6.8%,阿里巴巴-SW、哔哩哔哩-W","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三,港股早盘持续走高,恒生指数涨幅扩大至3%,国企指数涨约3.5%,红筹指数涨超3%。恒生科技指数涨约4.5%。</p><p>科网股持续走高,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>涨超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">舜宇光学科技</a>涨6.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-W</a>涨超5%,腾讯涨超4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/054a2d5ba20a86b867d4b02c1023ab62\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6afa6a3b090fa6bf16e88cd4bb4fe0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2835ef40491a72fe43cdc955f5b123e4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" 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class=\"title\">\n港股早盘持续走高,恒生科技指数大涨4.5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-01 11:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周三,港股早盘持续走高,恒生指数涨幅扩大至3%,国企指数涨约3.5%,红筹指数涨超3%。恒生科技指数涨约4.5%。</p><p>科网股持续走高,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>涨超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">舜宇光学科技</a>涨6.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-W</a>涨超5%,腾讯涨超4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/054a2d5ba20a86b867d4b02c1023ab62\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6afa6a3b090fa6bf16e88cd4bb4fe0\" tg-width=\"840\" 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height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09caddfc0c2d2ea28b3db992baa72dbf","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122898184","content_text":"周三,港股早盘持续走高,恒生指数涨幅扩大至3%,国企指数涨约3.5%,红筹指数涨超3%。恒生科技指数涨约4.5%。科网股持续走高,网易-S涨超7%,舜宇光学科技涨6.8%,阿里巴巴-SW、哔哩哔哩-W涨超5%,腾讯涨超4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":624426194,"gmtCreate":1677657205120,"gmtModify":1677657205120,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624426194","repostId":"1194389920","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":622341212,"gmtCreate":1675242650837,"gmtModify":1676538986353,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] 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19:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"国家网信办下架“滴滴出行”App,滴滴回应:认真整改","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155046075","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"滴滴坚决落实国家有关部门的相关要求,已于7月3日暂停新用户注册,滴滴出行App将严格按照有关部门的要求下架整改。已下载滴滴App的用户可正常使用,乘客的出行和司机师傅的接单不受影响。网信中国发布关于下架“滴滴出行”App的通报,根据举报,经检测核实,“滴滴出行”App存在严重违法违规收集使用个人信息问题。","content":"<p><b>滴滴回应被下架和严重违法违规收集使用个人信息</b></p>\n<p>滴滴坚决落实国家有关部门的相关要求,已于7月3日暂停新用户注册,滴滴出行App将严格按照有关部门的要求下架整改。已下载滴滴App的用户可正常使用,乘客的出行和司机师傅的接单不受影响。真诚感谢主管部门指导滴滴排查风险,我们将认真整改,不断提升风险防范意识和技术能力,持续保护用户隐私和数据安全,防范网络安全风险,持续为用户提供安全便捷的服务。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b915e55def9ab7e3d9bc2ac3f9e6696\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>国家网信办:下架“滴滴出行”App</b></p>\n<p>网信中国发布关于下架“滴滴出行”App的通报,根据举报,经检测核实,“滴滴出行”App存在严重违法违规收集使用个人信息问题。国家互联网信息办公室依据《中华人民共和国网络安全法》相关规定,通知应用商店下架“滴滴出行”App,要求滴滴出行科技有限公司严格按照法律要求,参照国家有关标准,认真整改存在的问题,切实保障广大用户个人信息安全。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e196df68ba7072b0b8971a7078b6b3c1\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国家网信办下架“滴滴出行”App,滴滴回应:认真整改</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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class=\"title\">\n国家网信办下架“滴滴出行”App,滴滴回应:认真整改\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-04 19:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>滴滴回应被下架和严重违法违规收集使用个人信息</b></p>\n<p>滴滴坚决落实国家有关部门的相关要求,已于7月3日暂停新用户注册,滴滴出行App将严格按照有关部门的要求下架整改。已下载滴滴App的用户可正常使用,乘客的出行和司机师傅的接单不受影响。真诚感谢主管部门指导滴滴排查风险,我们将认真整改,不断提升风险防范意识和技术能力,持续保护用户隐私和数据安全,防范网络安全风险,持续为用户提供安全便捷的服务。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b915e55def9ab7e3d9bc2ac3f9e6696\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>国家网信办:下架“滴滴出行”App</b></p>\n<p>网信中国发布关于下架“滴滴出行”App的通报,根据举报,经检测核实,“滴滴出行”App存在严重违法违规收集使用个人信息问题。国家互联网信息办公室依据《中华人民共和国网络安全法》相关规定,通知应用商店下架“滴滴出行”App,要求滴滴出行科技有限公司严格按照法律要求,参照国家有关标准,认真整改存在的问题,切实保障广大用户个人信息安全。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e196df68ba7072b0b8971a7078b6b3c1\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90e9b3b1ac56aae7290447c10b3ea865","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155046075","content_text":"滴滴回应被下架和严重违法违规收集使用个人信息\n滴滴坚决落实国家有关部门的相关要求,已于7月3日暂停新用户注册,滴滴出行App将严格按照有关部门的要求下架整改。已下载滴滴App的用户可正常使用,乘客的出行和司机师傅的接单不受影响。真诚感谢主管部门指导滴滴排查风险,我们将认真整改,不断提升风险防范意识和技术能力,持续保护用户隐私和数据安全,防范网络安全风险,持续为用户提供安全便捷的服务。国家网信办:下架“滴滴出行”App\n网信中国发布关于下架“滴滴出行”App的通报,根据举报,经检测核实,“滴滴出行”App存在严重违法违规收集使用个人信息问题。国家互联网信息办公室依据《中华人民共和国网络安全法》相关规定,通知应用商店下架“滴滴出行”App,要求滴滴出行科技有限公司严格按照法律要求,参照国家有关标准,认真整改存在的问题,切实保障广大用户个人信息安全。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110219492,"gmtCreate":1622458432516,"gmtModify":1704184693706,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110219492","repostId":"1153796666","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153796666","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622457612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153796666?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-31 18:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恒指公司:京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153796666","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"恒生指数公司将京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数,于2021年6月11日(星期五)起生效。","content":"<p>恒生指数公司将京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数,于2021年6月11日(星期五)起生效。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c794bde75a40b5c6b7e6d5c03ae28201\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"747\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0458f4e41078155a4bd4774921d54d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恒指公司:京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数</title>\n<style 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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c794bde75a40b5c6b7e6d5c03ae28201\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"747\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0458f4e41078155a4bd4774921d54d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25e108e80ab0d5329f36d3b166f67111","relate_stocks":{"02618":"京东物流"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153796666","content_text":"恒生指数公司将京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数,于2021年6月11日(星期五)起生效。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101036993,"gmtCreate":1619829641112,"gmtModify":1704335407981,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101036993","repostId":"1130152241","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130152241","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619805738,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130152241?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-01 02:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"喜马拉雅递交赴美上市申请,一季度营收增超65%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130152241","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"截至2021年第一季度,喜马拉雅全场景月活跃用户已达到2.50亿。","content":"<p>北京时间5月1日,“耳朵经济”第一股喜马拉雅向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了首次公开发行(IPO)申请,计划在纽约证券交易所挂牌上市。据悉,高盛、摩根士丹利、美银和中金为此次IPO联席承销商。招股书显示,2018年到2020年,喜马拉雅的营收分别为人民币14.8亿元,人民币26.8亿元和人民币40.5亿元。2021年第一季度营收为人民币11.6亿元,同比增长超65%。</p><p>截至2021年第一季度,喜马拉雅全场景月活跃用户已达到2.50亿,包括喜马拉雅移动端月活用户1.04亿和IoT及其他第三方开放平台月活用户1.46亿,累积了包含100个品类的2.8亿条音频内容。喜马拉雅移动端用户日均收听时长从2018年的123分钟增长到了2020年的141分钟,用户粘性不断增长。</p><p>招股书显示,目前喜马拉雅已经建立了多元化的变现渠道,包括付费订阅、广告、直播、教育服务以及其他创新产品和服务。其中,2020年付费订阅收入超17亿元人民币,同比增长41.3%。2021年第一季度喜马拉雅移动端用户付费率达到13.3%。2020年广告收入超10亿元人民币,同比增长73.9%。2020年,喜马拉雅活跃内容创作者超过520万人,并帮助超过16.1万名内容创作者及第三方IP版权方实现了约13亿元人民币的分成收入。</p><p>此外,招股书显示,腾讯、阅文、百度、小米、好未来、索尼音乐为喜马拉雅的战略投资者。主要财务投资者包括美国泛大西洋投资集团、挚信资本、高盛、兴旺投资、创世伙伴资本、普华资本、合鲸资本等。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>喜马拉雅递交赴美上市申请,一季度营收增超65%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n喜马拉雅递交赴美上市申请,一季度营收增超65%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-01 02:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>北京时间5月1日,“耳朵经济”第一股喜马拉雅向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了首次公开发行(IPO)申请,计划在纽约证券交易所挂牌上市。据悉,高盛、摩根士丹利、美银和中金为此次IPO联席承销商。招股书显示,2018年到2020年,喜马拉雅的营收分别为人民币14.8亿元,人民币26.8亿元和人民币40.5亿元。2021年第一季度营收为人民币11.6亿元,同比增长超65%。</p><p>截至2021年第一季度,喜马拉雅全场景月活跃用户已达到2.50亿,包括喜马拉雅移动端月活用户1.04亿和IoT及其他第三方开放平台月活用户1.46亿,累积了包含100个品类的2.8亿条音频内容。喜马拉雅移动端用户日均收听时长从2018年的123分钟增长到了2020年的141分钟,用户粘性不断增长。</p><p>招股书显示,目前喜马拉雅已经建立了多元化的变现渠道,包括付费订阅、广告、直播、教育服务以及其他创新产品和服务。其中,2020年付费订阅收入超17亿元人民币,同比增长41.3%。2021年第一季度喜马拉雅移动端用户付费率达到13.3%。2020年广告收入超10亿元人民币,同比增长73.9%。2020年,喜马拉雅活跃内容创作者超过520万人,并帮助超过16.1万名内容创作者及第三方IP版权方实现了约13亿元人民币的分成收入。</p><p>此外,招股书显示,腾讯、阅文、百度、小米、好未来、索尼音乐为喜马拉雅的战略投资者。主要财务投资者包括美国泛大西洋投资集团、挚信资本、高盛、兴旺投资、创世伙伴资本、普华资本、合鲸资本等。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5cc6f9764b402a6bc8d4c594edbc960","relate_stocks":{"XIMA":"喜马拉雅"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130152241","content_text":"北京时间5月1日,“耳朵经济”第一股喜马拉雅向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了首次公开发行(IPO)申请,计划在纽约证券交易所挂牌上市。据悉,高盛、摩根士丹利、美银和中金为此次IPO联席承销商。招股书显示,2018年到2020年,喜马拉雅的营收分别为人民币14.8亿元,人民币26.8亿元和人民币40.5亿元。2021年第一季度营收为人民币11.6亿元,同比增长超65%。截至2021年第一季度,喜马拉雅全场景月活跃用户已达到2.50亿,包括喜马拉雅移动端月活用户1.04亿和IoT及其他第三方开放平台月活用户1.46亿,累积了包含100个品类的2.8亿条音频内容。喜马拉雅移动端用户日均收听时长从2018年的123分钟增长到了2020年的141分钟,用户粘性不断增长。招股书显示,目前喜马拉雅已经建立了多元化的变现渠道,包括付费订阅、广告、直播、教育服务以及其他创新产品和服务。其中,2020年付费订阅收入超17亿元人民币,同比增长41.3%。2021年第一季度喜马拉雅移动端用户付费率达到13.3%。2020年广告收入超10亿元人民币,同比增长73.9%。2020年,喜马拉雅活跃内容创作者超过520万人,并帮助超过16.1万名内容创作者及第三方IP版权方实现了约13亿元人民币的分成收入。此外,招股书显示,腾讯、阅文、百度、小米、好未来、索尼音乐为喜马拉雅的战略投资者。主要财务投资者包括美国泛大西洋投资集团、挚信资本、高盛、兴旺投资、创世伙伴资本、普华资本、合鲸资本等。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101038600,"gmtCreate":1619829624600,"gmtModify":1704335407164,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101038600","repostId":"1141673518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100787280,"gmtCreate":1619651418140,"gmtModify":1704727263890,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100787280","repostId":"1183249581","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":300713703219400,"gmtCreate":1714435828413,"gmtModify":1714440642378,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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","text":"$腾讯控股ADR(TCEHY)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bafa87ba472c06ee1374947867fdf5c4","width":"1086","height":"1713"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/300713703219400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110219492,"gmtCreate":1622458432516,"gmtModify":1704184693706,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110219492","repostId":"1153796666","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153796666","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622457612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153796666?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-31 18:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恒指公司:京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153796666","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"恒生指数公司将京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数,于2021年6月11日(星期五)起生效。","content":"<p>恒生指数公司将京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数,于2021年6月11日(星期五)起生效。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c794bde75a40b5c6b7e6d5c03ae28201\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"747\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0458f4e41078155a4bd4774921d54d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恒指公司:京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n恒指公司:京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-31 18:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>恒生指数公司将京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数,于2021年6月11日(星期五)起生效。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c794bde75a40b5c6b7e6d5c03ae28201\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"747\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0458f4e41078155a4bd4774921d54d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25e108e80ab0d5329f36d3b166f67111","relate_stocks":{"02618":"京东物流"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153796666","content_text":"恒生指数公司将京东物流获纳入恒生综合指数,于2021年6月11日(星期五)起生效。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100787280,"gmtCreate":1619651418140,"gmtModify":1704727263890,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100787280","repostId":"1183249581","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183249581","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619651060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183249581?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 07:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"炸裂!苹果全线产品销量双位数增长,引爆业绩大增54%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183249581","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间4月28日盘后,苹果发布2021财年二季报,全线产品齐发力,营收和每股收益都远超市场预期;同时,公司将季度分红从每股20.5美分提高至每股22.0美分,并将股票回购计划扩充900亿美元资金。苹果股价盘后一度大涨4%,截至发稿涨幅2.34%。第二财季,苹果毛利率大幅走高至42.5%,远超市场预期的39.8%。","content":"<p>美东时间4月28日盘后,苹果发布2021财年二季报(即2021自然年第一季度业绩),全线产品齐发力,营收和每股收益都远超市场预期;同时,公司将季度分红从每股20.5美分提高至每股22.0美分,并将股票回购计划扩充900亿美元资金。苹果股价盘后一度大涨4%,截至发稿涨幅2.34%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31f124845253ab87b42c25c81950a480\" tg-width=\"1546\" tg-height=\"1354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216194075563445%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>苹果业绩会回放</b></a></p><p>财报显示,苹果一季度营收895.8亿美元,同比增长54%,远超分析师预期773.0亿美元;其中产品收入为726.8亿美元,同比大涨61.6%,比分析师预期631.3亿美元多出近100亿美元;自疫情后需求水涨船高,另苹果服务收入再创历史新高至169.0亿美元,同比增长26.6%,分析师预期为56.5亿美元。</p><p>第二财季,苹果毛利率大幅走高至42.5%,远超市场预期的39.8%。毛利率高的略显异常,通常苹果季度毛利率在38%至39%的区间内。</p><p>第二财季,苹果实现净利润263.3亿美元,分析师预期为165.89亿美元;实现每股收益1.40美元,分析师预期0.99美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/649da4c82805b9707323e71f811a2dbc\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"1102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">分产品看,</p><ul><li>第二财季iPhone的收入479.4亿美元,同比增65.5%,高于分析师预期的414.9亿美元;</li><li>来自iPad收入78.1亿美元,同比增78.9%,高于分析师预期56.5亿美元;</li><li>Mac电脑营收91亿美元,同比增70.1%,高于分析师预期的68亿美元;</li><li>其他可穿戴设备、居家设备等周边产品营收78.4亿美元,同比增25%,高于预期的75.2亿美元。</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b979df9dd3e23140fe98f5c52d032b2\" tg-width=\"1528\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">分地区看,</p><p>第二财季,苹果在美国市场的收入同比大增近35%至343亿美元,而上个季度仅增12%;来自大中华地区的收入同比增长超87%,至177.3亿美元,与上一季度一样呈现大幅增长态势。</p><p>欧洲地区和日本收入同比分别增近56%和49%至222.6亿美元和77.4亿美元;在中日以外的亚太市场收入同比增超94%,至75.4亿美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a02a9240c5b11c70fc6549587433656\" tg-width=\"1522\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">苹果CEO库克称,Apple TV+等新款服务正对业绩增长做出贡献,Apple TV+付费账户在全球范围内呈现两位数增长,总量已超6.6亿。季度购买Apple Watch买家中有75%的新买家。全球所有地理市场分区的iOS安装基数均创历史新高,Mac和iPad的活跃安装基数增幅喜人。iPhone的全球(各地)销售表现是一致的,多个地区市场的季度销量创历史新高。日本市场的iPad销量创历史新高。由于疫情的缘故,本公司没有在财报中提供营收指引,但预计二季度营收将呈现出两位数的增幅。供应链问题恐将对二季度业绩的不利影响为30亿至40亿美元,同期毛利率将介于41.5%-42.5%。预计iPad和Mac产品将出现供应不足问题。</p><p>苹果CFO Luca Maestri称,苹果连续两个季度在所有产品类别的收入上都实现了同比双位数百分比涨幅,连续两季在每个地理市场中收入创纪录,去年末以来大中华区销售额持续大幅反弹。当季总营收创历史同期新高,服务和Mac电脑营收创历史新高,活跃设备安装量刷新历史最高。</p><p>分析指出,苹果每个财年二季度的业绩通常逊于处于购物季的财年一季度,不过最新发布的季度财报非常强劲,既打消了人们对iPhone 12新机能否引发换机“超级周期”的顾虑,也暗示随着更多经济体在后疫情时代重新开放,苹果的强劲涨势可能会延续下去。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>炸裂!苹果全线产品销量双位数增长,引爆业绩大增54%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n炸裂!苹果全线产品销量双位数增长,引爆业绩大增54%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-29 07:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>美东时间4月28日盘后,苹果发布2021财年二季报(即2021自然年第一季度业绩),全线产品齐发力,营收和每股收益都远超市场预期;同时,公司将季度分红从每股20.5美分提高至每股22.0美分,并将股票回购计划扩充900亿美元资金。苹果股价盘后一度大涨4%,截至发稿涨幅2.34%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31f124845253ab87b42c25c81950a480\" tg-width=\"1546\" tg-height=\"1354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216194075563445%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\"><b>苹果业绩会回放</b></a></p><p>财报显示,苹果一季度营收895.8亿美元,同比增长54%,远超分析师预期773.0亿美元;其中产品收入为726.8亿美元,同比大涨61.6%,比分析师预期631.3亿美元多出近100亿美元;自疫情后需求水涨船高,另苹果服务收入再创历史新高至169.0亿美元,同比增长26.6%,分析师预期为56.5亿美元。</p><p>第二财季,苹果毛利率大幅走高至42.5%,远超市场预期的39.8%。毛利率高的略显异常,通常苹果季度毛利率在38%至39%的区间内。</p><p>第二财季,苹果实现净利润263.3亿美元,分析师预期为165.89亿美元;实现每股收益1.40美元,分析师预期0.99美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/649da4c82805b9707323e71f811a2dbc\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"1102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">分产品看,</p><ul><li>第二财季iPhone的收入479.4亿美元,同比增65.5%,高于分析师预期的414.9亿美元;</li><li>来自iPad收入78.1亿美元,同比增78.9%,高于分析师预期56.5亿美元;</li><li>Mac电脑营收91亿美元,同比增70.1%,高于分析师预期的68亿美元;</li><li>其他可穿戴设备、居家设备等周边产品营收78.4亿美元,同比增25%,高于预期的75.2亿美元。</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b979df9dd3e23140fe98f5c52d032b2\" tg-width=\"1528\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">分地区看,</p><p>第二财季,苹果在美国市场的收入同比大增近35%至343亿美元,而上个季度仅增12%;来自大中华地区的收入同比增长超87%,至177.3亿美元,与上一季度一样呈现大幅增长态势。</p><p>欧洲地区和日本收入同比分别增近56%和49%至222.6亿美元和77.4亿美元;在中日以外的亚太市场收入同比增超94%,至75.4亿美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a02a9240c5b11c70fc6549587433656\" tg-width=\"1522\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">苹果CEO库克称,Apple TV+等新款服务正对业绩增长做出贡献,Apple TV+付费账户在全球范围内呈现两位数增长,总量已超6.6亿。季度购买Apple Watch买家中有75%的新买家。全球所有地理市场分区的iOS安装基数均创历史新高,Mac和iPad的活跃安装基数增幅喜人。iPhone的全球(各地)销售表现是一致的,多个地区市场的季度销量创历史新高。日本市场的iPad销量创历史新高。由于疫情的缘故,本公司没有在财报中提供营收指引,但预计二季度营收将呈现出两位数的增幅。供应链问题恐将对二季度业绩的不利影响为30亿至40亿美元,同期毛利率将介于41.5%-42.5%。预计iPad和Mac产品将出现供应不足问题。</p><p>苹果CFO Luca Maestri称,苹果连续两个季度在所有产品类别的收入上都实现了同比双位数百分比涨幅,连续两季在每个地理市场中收入创纪录,去年末以来大中华区销售额持续大幅反弹。当季总营收创历史同期新高,服务和Mac电脑营收创历史新高,活跃设备安装量刷新历史最高。</p><p>分析指出,苹果每个财年二季度的业绩通常逊于处于购物季的财年一季度,不过最新发布的季度财报非常强劲,既打消了人们对iPhone 12新机能否引发换机“超级周期”的顾虑,也暗示随着更多经济体在后疫情时代重新开放,苹果的强劲涨势可能会延续下去。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f80e830abd7c68a4a68947dba917ef0a","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183249581","content_text":"美东时间4月28日盘后,苹果发布2021财年二季报(即2021自然年第一季度业绩),全线产品齐发力,营收和每股收益都远超市场预期;同时,公司将季度分红从每股20.5美分提高至每股22.0美分,并将股票回购计划扩充900亿美元资金。苹果股价盘后一度大涨4%,截至发稿涨幅2.34%。苹果业绩会回放财报显示,苹果一季度营收895.8亿美元,同比增长54%,远超分析师预期773.0亿美元;其中产品收入为726.8亿美元,同比大涨61.6%,比分析师预期631.3亿美元多出近100亿美元;自疫情后需求水涨船高,另苹果服务收入再创历史新高至169.0亿美元,同比增长26.6%,分析师预期为56.5亿美元。第二财季,苹果毛利率大幅走高至42.5%,远超市场预期的39.8%。毛利率高的略显异常,通常苹果季度毛利率在38%至39%的区间内。第二财季,苹果实现净利润263.3亿美元,分析师预期为165.89亿美元;实现每股收益1.40美元,分析师预期0.99美元。分产品看,第二财季iPhone的收入479.4亿美元,同比增65.5%,高于分析师预期的414.9亿美元;来自iPad收入78.1亿美元,同比增78.9%,高于分析师预期56.5亿美元;Mac电脑营收91亿美元,同比增70.1%,高于分析师预期的68亿美元;其他可穿戴设备、居家设备等周边产品营收78.4亿美元,同比增25%,高于预期的75.2亿美元。分地区看,第二财季,苹果在美国市场的收入同比大增近35%至343亿美元,而上个季度仅增12%;来自大中华地区的收入同比增长超87%,至177.3亿美元,与上一季度一样呈现大幅增长态势。欧洲地区和日本收入同比分别增近56%和49%至222.6亿美元和77.4亿美元;在中日以外的亚太市场收入同比增超94%,至75.4亿美元。苹果CEO库克称,Apple TV+等新款服务正对业绩增长做出贡献,Apple TV+付费账户在全球范围内呈现两位数增长,总量已超6.6亿。季度购买Apple Watch买家中有75%的新买家。全球所有地理市场分区的iOS安装基数均创历史新高,Mac和iPad的活跃安装基数增幅喜人。iPhone的全球(各地)销售表现是一致的,多个地区市场的季度销量创历史新高。日本市场的iPad销量创历史新高。由于疫情的缘故,本公司没有在财报中提供营收指引,但预计二季度营收将呈现出两位数的增幅。供应链问题恐将对二季度业绩的不利影响为30亿至40亿美元,同期毛利率将介于41.5%-42.5%。预计iPad和Mac产品将出现供应不足问题。苹果CFO Luca Maestri称,苹果连续两个季度在所有产品类别的收入上都实现了同比双位数百分比涨幅,连续两季在每个地理市场中收入创纪录,去年末以来大中华区销售额持续大幅反弹。当季总营收创历史同期新高,服务和Mac电脑营收创历史新高,活跃设备安装量刷新历史最高。分析指出,苹果每个财年二季度的业绩通常逊于处于购物季的财年一季度,不过最新发布的季度财报非常强劲,既打消了人们对iPhone 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推动物联网产业规模化、集约化发展</b></p><p>工信部部长金壮龙今日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,培育壮大新兴产业。新兴产业是引领未来发展的新支柱新赛道。我们将聚焦5G、人工智能、生物制造、工业互联网、智能网联汽车、绿色低碳等重点领域,不断丰富和拓展新的应用场景。扩大国家制造业创新中心在新兴产业领域的建设布局。实施“机器人+”应用行动,推动物联网产业规模化、集约化发展。</p><p><b>扎实推进新型工业化 加快建设制造强国和网络强国</b></p><p>会上介绍:工信部将全面贯彻落实党的二十大精神,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,贯彻新发展理念,构建新发展格局,推动高质量发展,统筹发展和安全,扎实推进新型工业化,加快建设制造强国和网络强国,不断夯实全面建成社会主义强国的物质技术基础。重点做好6个方面的工作:</p><p>一是促进工业经济稳定增长。认真落实一揽子政策措施,发挥重点行业、重点地区的带动作用。</p><p>二是推动产业体系升级发展。加快改造升级传统产业,巩固优势产业领先地位,培育壮大新兴产业,前瞻布局未来产业。</p><p>三是提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。着力补短板、锻长板、强基础,提升重点产业链供应链自主可控能力,促进全产业链发展。</p><p>四是健全产业科技创新体系。加强关键核心技术攻关,全面激发企业创新活力,促进创新链产业链资金链人才链深度融合。</p><p>五是推动高端化智能化绿色化发展。加强质量品牌建设,深入实施智能制造工程,加快新型信息基础设施建设和应用,积极稳妥推动工业绿色低碳发展。</p><p>六是全面提升企业竞争力。支持龙头企业做强做大,培育更多专精特新中小企业,构建大中小企业融通发展的良好生态。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-01 15:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月1日,今天下午,国新办举行“权威部门话开局”系列主题新闻发布会。工信部副部长辛国斌今日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,要会同有关部门尽快研究明确新能源汽车车购税减免等接续政策,修订发布“双积分”管理办法,稳定市场预期。今日发布会重要内容如下:</p><p><b>将会同有关部门尽快研究明确新能源汽车车购税减免等接续政策</b></p><p>工信部副部长辛国斌今日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,开展公共领域车辆全面电动化先行区试点,我们会同有关部门已经印发了通知,进一步提升公务用车、出租车、邮政快递、环卫等领域车辆的电动化水平。要会同有关部门尽快研究明确新能源汽车车购税减免等接续政策,修订发布“双积分”管理办法,稳定市场预期。</p><p><b>将研究制定未来产业发展行动计划 全面推进6G技术研发</b></p><p>工信部部长金壮龙今日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,前瞻布局未来产业。未来产业是抢抓新一轮科技革命和产业变革的机遇,实现引领发展的重要抓手。我们将研究制定未来产业发展行动计划,加快布局人形机器人、元宇宙、量子科技等前沿领域,全面推进6G技术研发。我们也鼓励地方先行先试,加快布局未来产业。</p><p><b>实施“机器人+”应用行动 推动物联网产业规模化、集约化发展</b></p><p>工信部部长金壮龙今日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,培育壮大新兴产业。新兴产业是引领未来发展的新支柱新赛道。我们将聚焦5G、人工智能、生物制造、工业互联网、智能网联汽车、绿色低碳等重点领域,不断丰富和拓展新的应用场景。扩大国家制造业创新中心在新兴产业领域的建设布局。实施“机器人+”应用行动,推动物联网产业规模化、集约化发展。</p><p><b>扎实推进新型工业化 加快建设制造强国和网络强国</b></p><p>会上介绍:工信部将全面贯彻落实党的二十大精神,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,贯彻新发展理念,构建新发展格局,推动高质量发展,统筹发展和安全,扎实推进新型工业化,加快建设制造强国和网络强国,不断夯实全面建成社会主义强国的物质技术基础。重点做好6个方面的工作:</p><p>一是促进工业经济稳定增长。认真落实一揽子政策措施,发挥重点行业、重点地区的带动作用。</p><p>二是推动产业体系升级发展。加快改造升级传统产业,巩固优势产业领先地位,培育壮大新兴产业,前瞻布局未来产业。</p><p>三是提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。着力补短板、锻长板、强基础,提升重点产业链供应链自主可控能力,促进全产业链发展。</p><p>四是健全产业科技创新体系。加强关键核心技术攻关,全面激发企业创新活力,促进创新链产业链资金链人才链深度融合。</p><p>五是推动高端化智能化绿色化发展。加强质量品牌建设,深入实施智能制造工程,加快新型信息基础设施建设和应用,积极稳妥推动工业绿色低碳发展。</p><p>六是全面提升企业竞争力。支持龙头企业做强做大,培育更多专精特新中小企业,构建大中小企业融通发展的良好生态。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae2bbbf21100a97b333e824b88c56d3","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194389920","content_text":"3月1日,今天下午,国新办举行“权威部门话开局”系列主题新闻发布会。工信部副部长辛国斌今日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,要会同有关部门尽快研究明确新能源汽车车购税减免等接续政策,修订发布“双积分”管理办法,稳定市场预期。今日发布会重要内容如下:将会同有关部门尽快研究明确新能源汽车车购税减免等接续政策工信部副部长辛国斌今日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,开展公共领域车辆全面电动化先行区试点,我们会同有关部门已经印发了通知,进一步提升公务用车、出租车、邮政快递、环卫等领域车辆的电动化水平。要会同有关部门尽快研究明确新能源汽车车购税减免等接续政策,修订发布“双积分”管理办法,稳定市场预期。将研究制定未来产业发展行动计划 全面推进6G技术研发工信部部长金壮龙今日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,前瞻布局未来产业。未来产业是抢抓新一轮科技革命和产业变革的机遇,实现引领发展的重要抓手。我们将研究制定未来产业发展行动计划,加快布局人形机器人、元宇宙、量子科技等前沿领域,全面推进6G技术研发。我们也鼓励地方先行先试,加快布局未来产业。实施“机器人+”应用行动 推动物联网产业规模化、集约化发展工信部部长金壮龙今日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,培育壮大新兴产业。新兴产业是引领未来发展的新支柱新赛道。我们将聚焦5G、人工智能、生物制造、工业互联网、智能网联汽车、绿色低碳等重点领域,不断丰富和拓展新的应用场景。扩大国家制造业创新中心在新兴产业领域的建设布局。实施“机器人+”应用行动,推动物联网产业规模化、集约化发展。扎实推进新型工业化 加快建设制造强国和网络强国会上介绍:工信部将全面贯彻落实党的二十大精神,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,贯彻新发展理念,构建新发展格局,推动高质量发展,统筹发展和安全,扎实推进新型工业化,加快建设制造强国和网络强国,不断夯实全面建成社会主义强国的物质技术基础。重点做好6个方面的工作:一是促进工业经济稳定增长。认真落实一揽子政策措施,发挥重点行业、重点地区的带动作用。二是推动产业体系升级发展。加快改造升级传统产业,巩固优势产业领先地位,培育壮大新兴产业,前瞻布局未来产业。三是提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。着力补短板、锻长板、强基础,提升重点产业链供应链自主可控能力,促进全产业链发展。四是健全产业科技创新体系。加强关键核心技术攻关,全面激发企业创新活力,促进创新链产业链资金链人才链深度融合。五是推动高端化智能化绿色化发展。加强质量品牌建设,深入实施智能制造工程,加快新型信息基础设施建设和应用,积极稳妥推动工业绿色低碳发展。六是全面提升企业竞争力。支持龙头企业做强做大,培育更多专精特新中小企业,构建大中小企业融通发展的良好生态。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":622341212,"gmtCreate":1675242650837,"gmtModify":1676538986353,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/622341212","repostId":"1156545321","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":662735118,"gmtCreate":1666758711836,"gmtModify":1676537802006,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go on!","listText":"Go on!","text":"Go on!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/662735118","repostId":"2278467267","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2278467267","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1666756324,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2278467267?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-26 11:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"央行的底气","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2278467267","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要:此次人民币走贬,央行表现定力十足。这与汇市预期稳定有关,而背后则反映了跨境资金流动形势平稳、外债压力较轻、储备充足、企业汇率风险管理水平大幅提升等有利因素。近日,离岸人民币汇率再度走弱,贬值幅度","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要:此次人民币走贬,央行表现定力十足。这与汇市预期稳定有关,而背后则反映了跨境资金流动形势平稳、外债压力较轻、储备充足、企业汇率风险管理水平大幅提升等有利因素。</b></blockquote><p><b>近日,离岸人民币汇率再度走弱,贬值幅度近2%,并带动在岸汇率突破7.3关口。相比2005年汇改以来的两轮贬值,此次人民币走贬,央行表现定力十足,通过出台跨境融资宏观审慎调节系数等调控工具加以应对,外汇储备降幅小于英、日等发达国家。其底气何在?</b></p><p><b>我们认为这与汇市预期稳定有关,而背后则反映了跨境资金流动形势平稳、外债压力较轻、储备充足、企业汇率风险管理水平大幅提升等有利因素。展望未来,在美元强势的背景下,人民币将延续贬值惯性,但中美经济形势的边际变化并不支持持续贬值。对于货币政策而言,“以我为主”仍是四季度坚持的原则,人民币贬值不会改变货币政策的宽松基调,但宽松的方式与节奏可能调整。</b></p><p><b>防止形成人民币贬值的单边预期而非死守固定点位,是经实战验证的成功经验。</b>2005年汇改以来,人民币经历了三次明显的贬值。在2015年的汇率保卫战中,央行付出了近万亿美元的高昂学费;而2018年却凭借出色的预期管理,“四两拨千斤”稳定了市场。吸取经验,央行高度重视汇率预期的形成和引导。</p><p><b>尽管人民币贬值幅度超过之前,但并未形成人民币贬值的单边预期,央行仍牢牢掌握主动权。</b>相比之前的两次贬值,此轮人民币贬值形势值得关注:1)此次贬值在半年时间内,中间价贬值幅度超过10%,而相同贬值幅度下的前两轮汇率走贬则用时16个月,可见势头之猛;2)此次贬值期间,人民币即期汇率收盘价与中间价之间的日均偏差146个基点,远超之前两次(分别为:43与79个基点),可见力道之强。但从预期视角来看,五大汇率预期指标一致显示,市场并未形成人民币贬值的单边预期,这是央行从容调节的底气所在。</p><p><b>五项市场因素不支持人民币持续贬值预期的形成。</b>在央行加强预期引导的同时,市场也结合实际情况形成自己的预期和判断。从跨境资金流动,外债压力,外汇储备,以及企业汇率风险管理水平等因素综合评估,人民币尚不存在持续贬值的基础。此外,“宏观审慎+微观监管”的外汇市场管理框架的建立,也为央行汇率调节留下了“后手”。</p><p><b>人民币被动式贬值特征明显,美元强势背景下仍将延续贬值惯性。</b>汇率点位之所以难以预测,主要源于影响因素众多,需要把握主要矛盾。此次贬值是在美元强势上攻的背景下形成,被动性贬值特征明显,因此预测汇率走势还是要看美元。我们之前在报告中提出,“在美联储结束加息、欧洲能源危机警报解除前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>仍有可能进一步走高”。据此推测,短期内人民币仍将随着美元走强而延续之前的惯性。但影响人民币汇率中长期走势的关键,仍是中美经济增速的相对变化。国内经济的企稳复苏与联储大幅加息可能引发的美国经济衰退,终将缓解人民币贬值压力。</p><p>货币政策方面,外汇市场的日益成熟与人民币汇率双边波动为预期管理与汇率稳定创造了有利条件。当前货币政策的首要目标仍是应对经济内生动力不足,“以我为主”仍是未来一段时期货币政策继续坚持的原则。汇率贬值不会改变货币政策的宽松基调,但宽松的方式与节奏可能调整。</p><p><b>正文</b></p><p>今年以来,美元指数的“突飞猛进”,使得非美货币哀鸿一片。新兴经济体中,除了俄罗斯卢布、墨西哥比索与巴西雷亚尔以外,其它16种新兴市场货币对美元全线贬值;发达经济体中,欧元、英镑、日元等国际储备货币也承受了较大的贬值压力,英、日两国央行甚至放弃了“清洁浮动”的国际声誉,出手救市。</p><p>与之形成鲜明对比的是,人民银行在此过程中保持理性克制。<b>听其言:</b>在人民币跌破7.2这一关键时刻召开的三季度货币政策例会,对人民币汇率着墨不多,相关表述较之前亦无明显变化,说明“稳汇率”仍未上升为货币政策的首要目标;<b>观其行:</b>在G20国家中,我国外汇储备年内降幅与澳大利亚相近,低于英、日、韩等发达国家。9月末,我国外汇储备为3.03万亿美元,较贬值前(3月)减少5.0%。相比之前的两轮人民币贬值(即:2015年8月后的半年内,外汇储备减少11.5%;2018年4月后的半年内,外汇储备减少1.8%),外汇储备降幅适中。</p><p>于是,问题来了。在这一轮美元绞杀战中,人民银行淡定克制的底气何在?从美国经济走势与联储态度来看,联储大幅加息仍将维持一段时间,如果人民币继续走贬,央行能否继续保持战略定力?极端情形下,其应对之策又会是什么?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96536feead2b1b14761369bcbc9056fc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h2><b>一、央行汇率调节段位升级</b></h2><p>2005年汇改以来,人民币汇率共经历了三轮明显的贬值:</p><p><b>第一轮</b>(2015年8月-2016年12月):人民币中间价累计贬值13.6%、即期汇率贬值12.0%,CFETS人民币汇率指数最深跌幅9.8%;</p><p><b>第二轮</b>(2018年4月-2019年8月):人民币中间价累计贬值12.6%、即期汇率贬值14.8%,CFETS人民币汇率指数最深跌幅6.1%;</p><p><b>第三轮</b>(2022年4月至今):人民币中间价贬值达12.4%、即期汇率贬值14.4%,人民币刷新之前的贬值记录,一度触及7.25。</p><p>比较这三轮贬值可以发现,当前人民币贬值形势远超之前:</p><p>一方面,此次贬值在半年时间内,人民币中间价贬值幅度超过10%,而相同贬值幅度下的前两轮汇率走贬则用时16个月,可见势头之猛;另一方面,此次贬值期间,人民币即期汇率收盘价与中间价之间的日均偏差146个基点,远超之前两次(分别为:43与79个基点),可见力道之强。</p><p>由于2005年“7·21”汇改之后,我国开始实行有管理的浮动汇率制度,汇市的异常波动会引起央行的警觉与调控。梳理之前两次汇率贬值期间的应对之策与政策效果可以发现,央行汇率管理的思路与措施明显升级。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0e6e940bed6301dc30ce5c8d403b9e\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1.2015年汇率贬值:央行付出了近万亿美元的高昂学费</b></p><p>2015年的汇率贬值可谓“一波三折”:1)“811”汇改之后,人民币汇率闪崩,人民币中间价与即期汇率在三个交易日内贬值3-4%;2)2015年11月-2016年1月,人民币中间价贬值4%,即期汇率逼近6.6整数关口;3)2016年6月至当年年底,人民币中间价贬值7.6%,即期汇率距7仅一步之遥。当时,市场上充斥着“保汇率or保房价”、“保汇率or 保储备”的激烈讨论,货币超发、国内经济减速、美元走强等因素均被视为导致此轮人民币走贬的主要原因。</p><p><b>市场对“811”汇改政策目的的误判,对当时人民币贬值起到了推波助澜的作用。</b>2014年Q2之后,我国国际收支结束了“双顺差”局面,呈现“经常项目顺差、资本项目逆差”的新格局。在2014Q2-2015Q2的5个季度里,资本项目累计逆差达1813亿美元,资本外流一度成为市场担忧的问题。8月11日,央行突然宣布变更人民币汇率中间价报价机制,中间价当日贬值近2%。由于初期缺乏政策引导,市场误以为央行在有意引导汇率贬值,于是形成了人民币贬值的单边预期。如此一来,央行便陷入了两难境地:不干预汇市,人民币贬值会加剧市场恐慌情绪,巩固贬值预期;入市干预,不仅会耗费外汇储备,而且阻碍市场出清,干预政策难以持久。事实证明,在此轮贬值期间,央行共耗费了6400亿的外汇储备,甚至击穿了“3万亿储备”的心理防线。</p><p>为了扭转汇率贬值预期、稳定汇市,央行除了投入“真金白银”下场维稳外,还通过发布人民币汇率指数,来增强中间价报价的透明度和稳定性;通过设立外汇市场自律机制,加强跨境资金流动的统计监测;通过在中间价形成机制中引入逆周期因子,缓解外汇市场的顺周期性问题。事后证明,上述措施有效引导了外汇市场的预期,对稳定人民币汇率起到关键作用。</p><p><b>2.2018年汇率贬值:央行预期管理取得“四两拨千金”的巨大成功</b></p><p>2018年,在国内经济下行、中美贸易摩擦与美元指数升值的复杂背景下,人民币汇率于4月快速走贬,10月突破“811”汇改的贬值高峰,再次逼近“7”这一整数关口;11月-2019年3月间,“美联储政策转鸽+美国对华贸易关系缓和”促进人民币汇率反弹,但于2019年4月-9月再度走贬,并一举破7,创下新的贬值点位:7.18。</p><p>不同于第一轮贬值,面对此次人民币走贬,央行的容忍度明显提升。贬值初期(2018年4月-7月),央行恪守汇率政策中性原则,避免下场干预。8月初,美方宣布第二批进口商品加税清单,我国出台反制措施,中美贸易摩擦进入“白热化”。为缓解贸易摩擦对汇率预期的不利影响,央行于8月相继重启外汇风险准备金与逆周期因子,并通过在香港市场发行央票、启用外汇市场自律机制,以及提高QFII额度等措施稳定汇市。</p><p>从政策效果来看,尽管人民币汇率于2019年“破7”,但跨境资金流动形势总体平稳,2018年非储备性质的金融账户实现顺差1306亿美元,并未出现明显的资本外流;央行外汇储备在整个贬值期间仅减少了356亿,较2015年大幅减少,央行新的汇率调节策略宣告成功。</p><p><b>对比央行“救市”的两种策略不难发现,防止市场出现人民币贬值单边预期,而非“死守”关键点位是经实践验证的的成功经验。基于此,尽管当前汇率贬值幅度与之前相近,并刷新了之前的记录,但只要市场单边预期没有形成,央行就掌握着汇率调节的主动权。</b></p><h2><b>二、当前尚未形成人民币贬值的单边预期</b></h2><p>截至10月25日,人民币中间价较年初贬值12.4%,即期汇率突破7.3,刷新历史记录。但从预期的视角来看,人民币持续贬值的一致预期尚未形成,人民币汇率双向波动仍是常态。</p><p>观察人民币贬值预期的常用指标主要有两个:1)一年期无本金交割远期(NDF)溢价,2)银行代客远期结售汇签约差额。前者,今年4月以来,NDF隐含的人民币汇率贬值预期仅为0.3%,远低于前两轮汇率贬值期间的2.8%与0.8%;后者,4月以来银行代客远期净结汇由正转负,4-8月累计规模-357亿美元,明显少于2015年同期水平(但较2018年同期增多),说明贬值预期形势较为可控。</p><p>此外,外管局观察汇率预期的常用指标-结汇率与售汇率也反映了同样的状况。此轮贬值期间(4月-8月),衡量结汇意愿的结汇率月均69.8%,超过往年同期3个百分点,较2018年贬值初期提升0.6个百分点,表明当前市场结汇意愿较强;衡量售汇意愿的售汇率月均67.9%,低于往年同期1.8个百分点,但高出2018年贬值初期近3个百分点,说明市场主体购汇意愿总体稳定。</p><p>除了常用指标以外,银行代客即期结售汇数据中也隐藏着人民币汇率的预期信息。从即期结售汇中剔除远期结售汇履约后,即期结售汇当月发生额主要反映市场主体当期结售汇的实际状况。今年4月人民币贬值周期开启后,即期结售汇发生额顺差明显增多,3、4月两月合计顺差为188.7亿元,而过去两年同期均为逆差。</p><p>为什么会出现“人民币贬值+结汇量增加”的反常现象?答案或与预期有关。此轮贬值前,人民币与美元曾罕见的同时升值,人民币被高估的预期逐渐积累,企业也出现了“压汇”现象;贬值后,市场预期人民币贬值难以持续,于是选择集中结汇,从而推动贬值前后的银行代客结售汇顺差放量,与汇率走势形成背离。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ca92392d4c8cfa63353fb9261a4802\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h2><b>三、“人无贬基”的五大基石</b></h2><p>人民币汇率预期的稳定,与央行高度重视预期引导密不可分。早在去年11月美联储FOMC会议提出Taper方案以来,央行即在《货币政策执行报告》(2021Q3)中提示发达经济体货币政策调整可能产生的溢出风险;今年,央行在4月与8月汇率快速贬值期间,两度下调外汇存款准备金率,释放汇市维稳信号。9月初的国务院政策吹风会上,刘国强行长强调“汇率双向波动是一种常态,不会出现‘单边市’”;月末召开的全国外汇市场自律机制会议更是重申“不要赌人民币汇率单边升值或贬值,久赌必输”。这些举措对于防止市场恐慌、规避单边预期形成起到一定作用。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cebb8801e32fdc34dedde19794ad0c3c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"1035\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>当然,市场在观察央行一举一动的同时,也会根据实际情况形成自己的判断。从跨境资金流动、外债压力等五个方面来看,当前人民币汇率的确不存在持续走贬的基础。</p><p><b>(一)跨境资金持续净流入,基础性国际收支“底盘”坚实</b></p><p>跨境资金流动对汇率波动具有直接影响。如上文所述,2014年后,我国跨境资金流动总体格局的变化(由“双顺差”→“经常项目顺差、资本项目逆差”),推动了人民币贬值预期的形成,以及随后的大幅波动。因此,预测汇率走势会首先关注跨境资金流动形势的变化。</p><p>上半年,跨境资金整体呈净流入态势。其中,经常账户实现顺差约1664亿美元,同比增长43%;非储备性质的金融账户转为逆差,但规模仅为1007亿美元。结构方面,基础性国际收支(即:经常账户+直接投资)实现顺差2400亿美元,与上年同期基本持平、远超2018年同期,说明跨境资金流动基本盘仍然坚实;跨境资本流动(即:非储备性质金融账户+遗漏项)逆差约1460亿美元。其中,证券投资项下净流出1586亿美元,而2018年同期净流入712亿美元,主要反映中美利差“倒挂”导致的债市资本外流;净误差与遗漏项净流出450亿美元,较2018年同期减少45%,说明通过地下渠道外流的资本规模相对有限。</p><p>由于国际收支数据更新较慢,我们用银行代客涉外收付款来观察8月以来的跨境资金流动情况。8月,银行代客涉外收付款顺差112.8亿美元,其中,基础性跨境收支净流入257.5亿美元,显著高于过去三年历史同期;金融项下资金净流出176.3亿美元,其中证券项下资金流出占该项目的75%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d570c15812a244919da52395a5e320\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(二)外债压力总体可控</b></p><p>金融全球化进程下,大量国际资本流入新兴市场经济体,形成外债规模。无论是98年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">亚洲金融</a>危机,还是2015年人民币贬值经验均表明,外债压力较大时,汇率波动容易在外汇市场产生恐慌,进行加剧本币贬值预期。</p><p>截至今年6月末,我国全口径外债余额合计2.6万亿,较贬值前(2021年末)减少4%;增速于2021年6月回落,并出现2017年以来首次转负。观察外债三大风险指标(即:偿债率、负债率与债务率),2021年全面回落,低于国际公认的安全水平。</p><p>结构方面,当前整体情况好于2018年,风险可控。从外债币种来看,本币外债占比44%,较2018年同期高出10个百分点;外币负债中,美元占比85%,与2018年同期基本持平。从外债期限来看,中长期外债占比46%,较2018年同期高出10个百分点;剔除贸易信贷以外的短期外债占比降至33.5%,较2018年同期下降6个百分点。从债务工具来看,刚性外债(即:贷款+债务)占比46%,较2018年同期上升1个百分点,但处于近三年来的低位。外债结构中,负债主体结构较之前有所恶化,其中企业负债(含直接投资:公司间贷款)占比较2018年提高了10个百分点,反映出近年来房地产外债规模的迅速膨胀。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/724acb3dc5fc1f3b712cf2fc411a2be0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f950bf07ae7d4577ece736ce2bab9a\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(三)外汇储备保持充足</b></p><p>外汇储备与外债压力是一体两面。根据IMF的定义口径,储备资产是由货币当局控制,可供随时满足国际收支资金需求,并用以干预汇兑市场来影响货币汇率的对外资产。作为储备资产的核心组成,外汇储备的最初功能即是调节国际收支,维护汇率稳定。2015年的汇率保卫战对我国外汇储备消耗巨大,以致于有市场观点认为,我国实际储备只有6000亿美元。那么,我国外汇储备是否充足,能否应对此轮汇率贬值带来的汇兑冲击?这对市场预期具有重要影响。</p><p>常用的两个衡量外汇储备充足性指标是:外汇储备/进口规模,短期外债/外汇储备。前者反映的是出口收入停止的情况下,外汇储备能满足多长时间的进口需求;后者则反映外汇储备对短期债务的偿还能力。</p><p>2020年疫情以来,外汇储备/进口规模的比重逐渐下滑,原因可能包括:1)出口高度增长削弱了外汇储备保障进口支付的必要性,2)国际通胀抬高了进口金额,因此比值下滑。即便如此,今年前八个月,该指标平均为13.9,说明在出口收入停止的极端情形下,外汇储备仍能满足14个月进口需求,远远超出3-4个月的国际安全水平。外债方面,由于2015年调整了短期外债的统计口径,叠加外贸规模不断扩大,金融开放程度加深,短期外债规模总体呈上升态势,占外汇储备比重从27.6%升至2022年中的46.6%,但仍远低于100%的国际警戒线。</p><p>除了官方的外汇储备以外,藏汇于民策略使得近两年民间持有的外汇资产迅速增多。疫情以后,我国进出口贸易与结售汇持续较大顺差,但央行外汇储备并未明显增加(增幅仅为0.4%),相比之下银行国外资产大幅增长22.8%,说明顺差项下流入的外汇大部分由企业和银行持有,这将为应对资本外流形成缓冲。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/def48b9aba0452c105634faa70fddd25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(四)企业汇率风险管理水平显著提升</b></p><p>除了宏观指标健康以外,企业微观行为也会对贬值预期产生影响。近年来我国企业汇率风险管理水平明显提升,而本币结算则有效降低了外汇敞口的风险。</p><p>疫情爆发以来,国家强调做好“六稳”“六保”工作。对此,外管局通过完善外汇市场产品体系、加大外汇政策供给、加强外汇避险宣传,以及降低中小微企业外汇套保综合成本等方式,提高企业汇率风险管理意识与能力。从效果来看,企业汇率风险管理水平明显提升。今年前八个月,企业利用外汇衍生产品(包括:外汇远期、掉期与期权等)管理汇率风险的规模合计约1万亿美元,同比增长28%;企业套保率25.4%,较上年提高3.8个百分点;汇率避险首办户超过2.3万家,中小微企业使用衍生品的比例进一步上升。</p><p>人民币国际化加快推进,本币结算可最大程度减少企业汇率风险。2018年以来,人民币国际化开始以“市场驱动、企业自主选择”原则稳慎推进,为企业跨境交易与结算提供支撑。从《人民币国际化报告(2022)》编制的人民币国际化指数来看,2020年以来,人民币国际化迅速程度提升。今年一季度,该指数为2.86,紧随美、欧、英、日货币之后。环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)数据显示,8月人民币在国际支付中的份额为2.3%,跻身全球第四大支付货币。人民币国际化程度的提高,有利于企业进出口使用本币结算。上半年,我国货物贸易中跨境人民币结算占比提高到16.6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f9c29f629b4bd97932363bb59b51c8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(五)央行汇率政策工具仍然充裕</b></p><p>除了上述市场因素外,央行“稳汇率”的意愿和能力无疑对预期至关重要。2018年汇率保卫战的完胜,充分证明央行在外汇市场上的力量。</p><p>当前,央行维护汇率稳定,立场鲜明,关键是看实力。细数央行外汇政策工具箱,可以将现有工具归为以下几类:一是价格型工具,主要是运用逆周期因子影响中间价的形成;二是数量型工具,通过调节外汇市场美元与人民币供求来影响市场汇率,包括外汇存款准备金、外汇风险准备金,以及发行离岸央票;三是基于外汇市场“宏观审慎+微观监管”两位一体管理框架,监测并调节跨境资金流动形势。</p><p>在4月与8月的贬值期间,央行动用了逆周期因子、外汇存款准备金、外汇风险准备金,离岸央票等一系列工具。如果美元指数拉升导致人民币再度走贬,除加强上述工具力度以外,“宏观审慎+微观监管”的跨境资金流动调节工具将会登场。事实上,央行已加强了外汇市场的微观监管力度:9月27日,央行召开全国外汇市场自律机制电视会议,强调“银行自身要基于风险中性原则合理开展自营交易,向市场提供真实流动性”,“(央行将)加强监督管理和监测分析,加强预期管理,遏制投机炒作”;9月29日与10月11日,两次发布《外汇违规案例通报》,对逃汇等违规行为进行处罚警示。</p><p>25日,央行和外管局上调跨境融资宏观审慎调节系数,将其从1调至1.25,此举有望缓解人民币贬值压力。根据人民银行《关于全口径跨境融资宏观审慎管理有关事宜的通知》,境内机构(包括企业与27家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>)从非居民融入本、外币资金(即:跨境融资)实行余额上限管理,境内机构开展跨境融资需保证跨境融资风险加权余额≤跨境融资风险加权余额上限。公式如下:</p><p>跨境融资风险加权余额上限 = 资本或净资产 * 跨境融资杠杆率 * 宏观审慎调节系数</p><p>跨境融资风险加权余额 = ∑本外币跨境融资余额 * 期限风险转换因子 * 类别风险转换因子 + ∑外币跨境融资余额 * 汇率风险折算因子</p><p>根据该政策,央行上调跨境融资宏观审慎调节系数,预示境内主体跨境融资额度增加,银行结汇量加大,从而起到促进人民币升值作用。从实际效果来看,2020年3月该系数从1上调至1.25。调整后,企业跨境融资风险加权余额上限由原来净资产的2倍提高到2.5倍,跨境融资规模空间较之前扩大了25%,预计对企业支持力度可能达到几百亿美元的规模。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7651e94d67871e411032918ba600aa8a\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>四、后市展望</b></p><p>美联储前主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)曾经感叹:“在努力预测汇率超过半个世纪后,终于明白对汇率问题要树立强烈的谦卑心态。”预测汇率点位之所以令人望洋兴叹,原因在于其影响因素众多,因此需要把握主要矛盾。</p><p>不同于之前的两轮人民币走贬,此次贬值是在美元强势上攻的背景下形成,被动性贬值特征明显,因此未来影响汇率的核心因素还是要看美元。我们在报告—《缓和人民币汇率贬值斜率》里曾提出,“在美联储结束加息、欧洲能源危机警报解除前,美元指数仍有可能进一步走高,预计今年底到明年初见顶”。据此推测,短期内人民币仍将随着美元走强而延续之前的惯性。但这并不意味人民币存在持续贬值的基础,因为最终决定人民币汇率的关键,还是中美经济增速的相对变动,而四季度国内经济的企稳复苏与大幅加息可能引发的美国经济衰退,终将缓解人民币贬值压力。</p><p>对于央行而言,外汇市场的日益成熟与人民币汇率双边波动为其预期管理创造了有利条件。当前货币政策的首要目标仍是应对金融下行周期产生的内生动力不足,“稳字当头”与“以我为主”仍是未来一段时期货币政策继续坚持的原则。因此,汇率贬值不会改变货币政策的宽松基调,但宽松的方式与节奏可能调整。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n央行的底气\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-26 11:52 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673276><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要:此次人民币走贬,央行表现定力十足。这与汇市预期稳定有关,而背后则反映了跨境资金流动形势平稳、外债压力较轻、储备充足、企业汇率风险管理水平大幅提升等有利因素。近日,离岸人民币汇率再度走弱,贬值幅度近2%,并带动在岸汇率突破7.3关口。相比2005年汇改以来的两轮贬值,此次人民币走贬,央行表现定力十足,通过出台跨境融资宏观审慎调节系数等调控工具加以应对,外汇储备降幅小于英、日等发达国家。其底气...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673276\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107b097b5a78709b311d304356ffc5ee","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673276","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278467267","content_text":"摘要:此次人民币走贬,央行表现定力十足。这与汇市预期稳定有关,而背后则反映了跨境资金流动形势平稳、外债压力较轻、储备充足、企业汇率风险管理水平大幅提升等有利因素。近日,离岸人民币汇率再度走弱,贬值幅度近2%,并带动在岸汇率突破7.3关口。相比2005年汇改以来的两轮贬值,此次人民币走贬,央行表现定力十足,通过出台跨境融资宏观审慎调节系数等调控工具加以应对,外汇储备降幅小于英、日等发达国家。其底气何在?我们认为这与汇市预期稳定有关,而背后则反映了跨境资金流动形势平稳、外债压力较轻、储备充足、企业汇率风险管理水平大幅提升等有利因素。展望未来,在美元强势的背景下,人民币将延续贬值惯性,但中美经济形势的边际变化并不支持持续贬值。对于货币政策而言,“以我为主”仍是四季度坚持的原则,人民币贬值不会改变货币政策的宽松基调,但宽松的方式与节奏可能调整。防止形成人民币贬值的单边预期而非死守固定点位,是经实战验证的成功经验。2005年汇改以来,人民币经历了三次明显的贬值。在2015年的汇率保卫战中,央行付出了近万亿美元的高昂学费;而2018年却凭借出色的预期管理,“四两拨千斤”稳定了市场。吸取经验,央行高度重视汇率预期的形成和引导。尽管人民币贬值幅度超过之前,但并未形成人民币贬值的单边预期,央行仍牢牢掌握主动权。相比之前的两次贬值,此轮人民币贬值形势值得关注:1)此次贬值在半年时间内,中间价贬值幅度超过10%,而相同贬值幅度下的前两轮汇率走贬则用时16个月,可见势头之猛;2)此次贬值期间,人民币即期汇率收盘价与中间价之间的日均偏差146个基点,远超之前两次(分别为:43与79个基点),可见力道之强。但从预期视角来看,五大汇率预期指标一致显示,市场并未形成人民币贬值的单边预期,这是央行从容调节的底气所在。五项市场因素不支持人民币持续贬值预期的形成。在央行加强预期引导的同时,市场也结合实际情况形成自己的预期和判断。从跨境资金流动,外债压力,外汇储备,以及企业汇率风险管理水平等因素综合评估,人民币尚不存在持续贬值的基础。此外,“宏观审慎+微观监管”的外汇市场管理框架的建立,也为央行汇率调节留下了“后手”。人民币被动式贬值特征明显,美元强势背景下仍将延续贬值惯性。汇率点位之所以难以预测,主要源于影响因素众多,需要把握主要矛盾。此次贬值是在美元强势上攻的背景下形成,被动性贬值特征明显,因此预测汇率走势还是要看美元。我们之前在报告中提出,“在美联储结束加息、欧洲能源危机警报解除前,美元指数仍有可能进一步走高”。据此推测,短期内人民币仍将随着美元走强而延续之前的惯性。但影响人民币汇率中长期走势的关键,仍是中美经济增速的相对变化。国内经济的企稳复苏与联储大幅加息可能引发的美国经济衰退,终将缓解人民币贬值压力。货币政策方面,外汇市场的日益成熟与人民币汇率双边波动为预期管理与汇率稳定创造了有利条件。当前货币政策的首要目标仍是应对经济内生动力不足,“以我为主”仍是未来一段时期货币政策继续坚持的原则。汇率贬值不会改变货币政策的宽松基调,但宽松的方式与节奏可能调整。正文今年以来,美元指数的“突飞猛进”,使得非美货币哀鸿一片。新兴经济体中,除了俄罗斯卢布、墨西哥比索与巴西雷亚尔以外,其它16种新兴市场货币对美元全线贬值;发达经济体中,欧元、英镑、日元等国际储备货币也承受了较大的贬值压力,英、日两国央行甚至放弃了“清洁浮动”的国际声誉,出手救市。与之形成鲜明对比的是,人民银行在此过程中保持理性克制。听其言:在人民币跌破7.2这一关键时刻召开的三季度货币政策例会,对人民币汇率着墨不多,相关表述较之前亦无明显变化,说明“稳汇率”仍未上升为货币政策的首要目标;观其行:在G20国家中,我国外汇储备年内降幅与澳大利亚相近,低于英、日、韩等发达国家。9月末,我国外汇储备为3.03万亿美元,较贬值前(3月)减少5.0%。相比之前的两轮人民币贬值(即:2015年8月后的半年内,外汇储备减少11.5%;2018年4月后的半年内,外汇储备减少1.8%),外汇储备降幅适中。于是,问题来了。在这一轮美元绞杀战中,人民银行淡定克制的底气何在?从美国经济走势与联储态度来看,联储大幅加息仍将维持一段时间,如果人民币继续走贬,央行能否继续保持战略定力?极端情形下,其应对之策又会是什么?一、央行汇率调节段位升级2005年汇改以来,人民币汇率共经历了三轮明显的贬值:第一轮(2015年8月-2016年12月):人民币中间价累计贬值13.6%、即期汇率贬值12.0%,CFETS人民币汇率指数最深跌幅9.8%;第二轮(2018年4月-2019年8月):人民币中间价累计贬值12.6%、即期汇率贬值14.8%,CFETS人民币汇率指数最深跌幅6.1%;第三轮(2022年4月至今):人民币中间价贬值达12.4%、即期汇率贬值14.4%,人民币刷新之前的贬值记录,一度触及7.25。比较这三轮贬值可以发现,当前人民币贬值形势远超之前:一方面,此次贬值在半年时间内,人民币中间价贬值幅度超过10%,而相同贬值幅度下的前两轮汇率走贬则用时16个月,可见势头之猛;另一方面,此次贬值期间,人民币即期汇率收盘价与中间价之间的日均偏差146个基点,远超之前两次(分别为:43与79个基点),可见力道之强。由于2005年“7·21”汇改之后,我国开始实行有管理的浮动汇率制度,汇市的异常波动会引起央行的警觉与调控。梳理之前两次汇率贬值期间的应对之策与政策效果可以发现,央行汇率管理的思路与措施明显升级。1.2015年汇率贬值:央行付出了近万亿美元的高昂学费2015年的汇率贬值可谓“一波三折”:1)“811”汇改之后,人民币汇率闪崩,人民币中间价与即期汇率在三个交易日内贬值3-4%;2)2015年11月-2016年1月,人民币中间价贬值4%,即期汇率逼近6.6整数关口;3)2016年6月至当年年底,人民币中间价贬值7.6%,即期汇率距7仅一步之遥。当时,市场上充斥着“保汇率or保房价”、“保汇率or 保储备”的激烈讨论,货币超发、国内经济减速、美元走强等因素均被视为导致此轮人民币走贬的主要原因。市场对“811”汇改政策目的的误判,对当时人民币贬值起到了推波助澜的作用。2014年Q2之后,我国国际收支结束了“双顺差”局面,呈现“经常项目顺差、资本项目逆差”的新格局。在2014Q2-2015Q2的5个季度里,资本项目累计逆差达1813亿美元,资本外流一度成为市场担忧的问题。8月11日,央行突然宣布变更人民币汇率中间价报价机制,中间价当日贬值近2%。由于初期缺乏政策引导,市场误以为央行在有意引导汇率贬值,于是形成了人民币贬值的单边预期。如此一来,央行便陷入了两难境地:不干预汇市,人民币贬值会加剧市场恐慌情绪,巩固贬值预期;入市干预,不仅会耗费外汇储备,而且阻碍市场出清,干预政策难以持久。事实证明,在此轮贬值期间,央行共耗费了6400亿的外汇储备,甚至击穿了“3万亿储备”的心理防线。为了扭转汇率贬值预期、稳定汇市,央行除了投入“真金白银”下场维稳外,还通过发布人民币汇率指数,来增强中间价报价的透明度和稳定性;通过设立外汇市场自律机制,加强跨境资金流动的统计监测;通过在中间价形成机制中引入逆周期因子,缓解外汇市场的顺周期性问题。事后证明,上述措施有效引导了外汇市场的预期,对稳定人民币汇率起到关键作用。2.2018年汇率贬值:央行预期管理取得“四两拨千金”的巨大成功2018年,在国内经济下行、中美贸易摩擦与美元指数升值的复杂背景下,人民币汇率于4月快速走贬,10月突破“811”汇改的贬值高峰,再次逼近“7”这一整数关口;11月-2019年3月间,“美联储政策转鸽+美国对华贸易关系缓和”促进人民币汇率反弹,但于2019年4月-9月再度走贬,并一举破7,创下新的贬值点位:7.18。不同于第一轮贬值,面对此次人民币走贬,央行的容忍度明显提升。贬值初期(2018年4月-7月),央行恪守汇率政策中性原则,避免下场干预。8月初,美方宣布第二批进口商品加税清单,我国出台反制措施,中美贸易摩擦进入“白热化”。为缓解贸易摩擦对汇率预期的不利影响,央行于8月相继重启外汇风险准备金与逆周期因子,并通过在香港市场发行央票、启用外汇市场自律机制,以及提高QFII额度等措施稳定汇市。从政策效果来看,尽管人民币汇率于2019年“破7”,但跨境资金流动形势总体平稳,2018年非储备性质的金融账户实现顺差1306亿美元,并未出现明显的资本外流;央行外汇储备在整个贬值期间仅减少了356亿,较2015年大幅减少,央行新的汇率调节策略宣告成功。对比央行“救市”的两种策略不难发现,防止市场出现人民币贬值单边预期,而非“死守”关键点位是经实践验证的的成功经验。基于此,尽管当前汇率贬值幅度与之前相近,并刷新了之前的记录,但只要市场单边预期没有形成,央行就掌握着汇率调节的主动权。二、当前尚未形成人民币贬值的单边预期截至10月25日,人民币中间价较年初贬值12.4%,即期汇率突破7.3,刷新历史记录。但从预期的视角来看,人民币持续贬值的一致预期尚未形成,人民币汇率双向波动仍是常态。观察人民币贬值预期的常用指标主要有两个:1)一年期无本金交割远期(NDF)溢价,2)银行代客远期结售汇签约差额。前者,今年4月以来,NDF隐含的人民币汇率贬值预期仅为0.3%,远低于前两轮汇率贬值期间的2.8%与0.8%;后者,4月以来银行代客远期净结汇由正转负,4-8月累计规模-357亿美元,明显少于2015年同期水平(但较2018年同期增多),说明贬值预期形势较为可控。此外,外管局观察汇率预期的常用指标-结汇率与售汇率也反映了同样的状况。此轮贬值期间(4月-8月),衡量结汇意愿的结汇率月均69.8%,超过往年同期3个百分点,较2018年贬值初期提升0.6个百分点,表明当前市场结汇意愿较强;衡量售汇意愿的售汇率月均67.9%,低于往年同期1.8个百分点,但高出2018年贬值初期近3个百分点,说明市场主体购汇意愿总体稳定。除了常用指标以外,银行代客即期结售汇数据中也隐藏着人民币汇率的预期信息。从即期结售汇中剔除远期结售汇履约后,即期结售汇当月发生额主要反映市场主体当期结售汇的实际状况。今年4月人民币贬值周期开启后,即期结售汇发生额顺差明显增多,3、4月两月合计顺差为188.7亿元,而过去两年同期均为逆差。为什么会出现“人民币贬值+结汇量增加”的反常现象?答案或与预期有关。此轮贬值前,人民币与美元曾罕见的同时升值,人民币被高估的预期逐渐积累,企业也出现了“压汇”现象;贬值后,市场预期人民币贬值难以持续,于是选择集中结汇,从而推动贬值前后的银行代客结售汇顺差放量,与汇率走势形成背离。三、“人无贬基”的五大基石人民币汇率预期的稳定,与央行高度重视预期引导密不可分。早在去年11月美联储FOMC会议提出Taper方案以来,央行即在《货币政策执行报告》(2021Q3)中提示发达经济体货币政策调整可能产生的溢出风险;今年,央行在4月与8月汇率快速贬值期间,两度下调外汇存款准备金率,释放汇市维稳信号。9月初的国务院政策吹风会上,刘国强行长强调“汇率双向波动是一种常态,不会出现‘单边市’”;月末召开的全国外汇市场自律机制会议更是重申“不要赌人民币汇率单边升值或贬值,久赌必输”。这些举措对于防止市场恐慌、规避单边预期形成起到一定作用。当然,市场在观察央行一举一动的同时,也会根据实际情况形成自己的判断。从跨境资金流动、外债压力等五个方面来看,当前人民币汇率的确不存在持续走贬的基础。(一)跨境资金持续净流入,基础性国际收支“底盘”坚实跨境资金流动对汇率波动具有直接影响。如上文所述,2014年后,我国跨境资金流动总体格局的变化(由“双顺差”→“经常项目顺差、资本项目逆差”),推动了人民币贬值预期的形成,以及随后的大幅波动。因此,预测汇率走势会首先关注跨境资金流动形势的变化。上半年,跨境资金整体呈净流入态势。其中,经常账户实现顺差约1664亿美元,同比增长43%;非储备性质的金融账户转为逆差,但规模仅为1007亿美元。结构方面,基础性国际收支(即:经常账户+直接投资)实现顺差2400亿美元,与上年同期基本持平、远超2018年同期,说明跨境资金流动基本盘仍然坚实;跨境资本流动(即:非储备性质金融账户+遗漏项)逆差约1460亿美元。其中,证券投资项下净流出1586亿美元,而2018年同期净流入712亿美元,主要反映中美利差“倒挂”导致的债市资本外流;净误差与遗漏项净流出450亿美元,较2018年同期减少45%,说明通过地下渠道外流的资本规模相对有限。由于国际收支数据更新较慢,我们用银行代客涉外收付款来观察8月以来的跨境资金流动情况。8月,银行代客涉外收付款顺差112.8亿美元,其中,基础性跨境收支净流入257.5亿美元,显著高于过去三年历史同期;金融项下资金净流出176.3亿美元,其中证券项下资金流出占该项目的75%。(二)外债压力总体可控金融全球化进程下,大量国际资本流入新兴市场经济体,形成外债规模。无论是98年亚洲金融危机,还是2015年人民币贬值经验均表明,外债压力较大时,汇率波动容易在外汇市场产生恐慌,进行加剧本币贬值预期。截至今年6月末,我国全口径外债余额合计2.6万亿,较贬值前(2021年末)减少4%;增速于2021年6月回落,并出现2017年以来首次转负。观察外债三大风险指标(即:偿债率、负债率与债务率),2021年全面回落,低于国际公认的安全水平。结构方面,当前整体情况好于2018年,风险可控。从外债币种来看,本币外债占比44%,较2018年同期高出10个百分点;外币负债中,美元占比85%,与2018年同期基本持平。从外债期限来看,中长期外债占比46%,较2018年同期高出10个百分点;剔除贸易信贷以外的短期外债占比降至33.5%,较2018年同期下降6个百分点。从债务工具来看,刚性外债(即:贷款+债务)占比46%,较2018年同期上升1个百分点,但处于近三年来的低位。外债结构中,负债主体结构较之前有所恶化,其中企业负债(含直接投资:公司间贷款)占比较2018年提高了10个百分点,反映出近年来房地产外债规模的迅速膨胀。(三)外汇储备保持充足外汇储备与外债压力是一体两面。根据IMF的定义口径,储备资产是由货币当局控制,可供随时满足国际收支资金需求,并用以干预汇兑市场来影响货币汇率的对外资产。作为储备资产的核心组成,外汇储备的最初功能即是调节国际收支,维护汇率稳定。2015年的汇率保卫战对我国外汇储备消耗巨大,以致于有市场观点认为,我国实际储备只有6000亿美元。那么,我国外汇储备是否充足,能否应对此轮汇率贬值带来的汇兑冲击?这对市场预期具有重要影响。常用的两个衡量外汇储备充足性指标是:外汇储备/进口规模,短期外债/外汇储备。前者反映的是出口收入停止的情况下,外汇储备能满足多长时间的进口需求;后者则反映外汇储备对短期债务的偿还能力。2020年疫情以来,外汇储备/进口规模的比重逐渐下滑,原因可能包括:1)出口高度增长削弱了外汇储备保障进口支付的必要性,2)国际通胀抬高了进口金额,因此比值下滑。即便如此,今年前八个月,该指标平均为13.9,说明在出口收入停止的极端情形下,外汇储备仍能满足14个月进口需求,远远超出3-4个月的国际安全水平。外债方面,由于2015年调整了短期外债的统计口径,叠加外贸规模不断扩大,金融开放程度加深,短期外债规模总体呈上升态势,占外汇储备比重从27.6%升至2022年中的46.6%,但仍远低于100%的国际警戒线。除了官方的外汇储备以外,藏汇于民策略使得近两年民间持有的外汇资产迅速增多。疫情以后,我国进出口贸易与结售汇持续较大顺差,但央行外汇储备并未明显增加(增幅仅为0.4%),相比之下银行国外资产大幅增长22.8%,说明顺差项下流入的外汇大部分由企业和银行持有,这将为应对资本外流形成缓冲。(四)企业汇率风险管理水平显著提升除了宏观指标健康以外,企业微观行为也会对贬值预期产生影响。近年来我国企业汇率风险管理水平明显提升,而本币结算则有效降低了外汇敞口的风险。疫情爆发以来,国家强调做好“六稳”“六保”工作。对此,外管局通过完善外汇市场产品体系、加大外汇政策供给、加强外汇避险宣传,以及降低中小微企业外汇套保综合成本等方式,提高企业汇率风险管理意识与能力。从效果来看,企业汇率风险管理水平明显提升。今年前八个月,企业利用外汇衍生产品(包括:外汇远期、掉期与期权等)管理汇率风险的规模合计约1万亿美元,同比增长28%;企业套保率25.4%,较上年提高3.8个百分点;汇率避险首办户超过2.3万家,中小微企业使用衍生品的比例进一步上升。人民币国际化加快推进,本币结算可最大程度减少企业汇率风险。2018年以来,人民币国际化开始以“市场驱动、企业自主选择”原则稳慎推进,为企业跨境交易与结算提供支撑。从《人民币国际化报告(2022)》编制的人民币国际化指数来看,2020年以来,人民币国际化迅速程度提升。今年一季度,该指数为2.86,紧随美、欧、英、日货币之后。环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)数据显示,8月人民币在国际支付中的份额为2.3%,跻身全球第四大支付货币。人民币国际化程度的提高,有利于企业进出口使用本币结算。上半年,我国货物贸易中跨境人民币结算占比提高到16.6%。(五)央行汇率政策工具仍然充裕除了上述市场因素外,央行“稳汇率”的意愿和能力无疑对预期至关重要。2018年汇率保卫战的完胜,充分证明央行在外汇市场上的力量。当前,央行维护汇率稳定,立场鲜明,关键是看实力。细数央行外汇政策工具箱,可以将现有工具归为以下几类:一是价格型工具,主要是运用逆周期因子影响中间价的形成;二是数量型工具,通过调节外汇市场美元与人民币供求来影响市场汇率,包括外汇存款准备金、外汇风险准备金,以及发行离岸央票;三是基于外汇市场“宏观审慎+微观监管”两位一体管理框架,监测并调节跨境资金流动形势。在4月与8月的贬值期间,央行动用了逆周期因子、外汇存款准备金、外汇风险准备金,离岸央票等一系列工具。如果美元指数拉升导致人民币再度走贬,除加强上述工具力度以外,“宏观审慎+微观监管”的跨境资金流动调节工具将会登场。事实上,央行已加强了外汇市场的微观监管力度:9月27日,央行召开全国外汇市场自律机制电视会议,强调“银行自身要基于风险中性原则合理开展自营交易,向市场提供真实流动性”,“(央行将)加强监督管理和监测分析,加强预期管理,遏制投机炒作”;9月29日与10月11日,两次发布《外汇违规案例通报》,对逃汇等违规行为进行处罚警示。25日,央行和外管局上调跨境融资宏观审慎调节系数,将其从1调至1.25,此举有望缓解人民币贬值压力。根据人民银行《关于全口径跨境融资宏观审慎管理有关事宜的通知》,境内机构(包括企业与27家金融机构)从非居民融入本、外币资金(即:跨境融资)实行余额上限管理,境内机构开展跨境融资需保证跨境融资风险加权余额≤跨境融资风险加权余额上限。公式如下:跨境融资风险加权余额上限 = 资本或净资产 * 跨境融资杠杆率 * 宏观审慎调节系数跨境融资风险加权余额 = ∑本外币跨境融资余额 * 期限风险转换因子 * 类别风险转换因子 + ∑外币跨境融资余额 * 汇率风险折算因子根据该政策,央行上调跨境融资宏观审慎调节系数,预示境内主体跨境融资额度增加,银行结汇量加大,从而起到促进人民币升值作用。从实际效果来看,2020年3月该系数从1上调至1.25。调整后,企业跨境融资风险加权余额上限由原来净资产的2倍提高到2.5倍,跨境融资规模空间较之前扩大了25%,预计对企业支持力度可能达到几百亿美元的规模。四、后市展望美联储前主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)曾经感叹:“在努力预测汇率超过半个世纪后,终于明白对汇率问题要树立强烈的谦卑心态。”预测汇率点位之所以令人望洋兴叹,原因在于其影响因素众多,因此需要把握主要矛盾。不同于之前的两轮人民币走贬,此次贬值是在美元强势上攻的背景下形成,被动性贬值特征明显,因此未来影响汇率的核心因素还是要看美元。我们在报告—《缓和人民币汇率贬值斜率》里曾提出,“在美联储结束加息、欧洲能源危机警报解除前,美元指数仍有可能进一步走高,预计今年底到明年初见顶”。据此推测,短期内人民币仍将随着美元走强而延续之前的惯性。但这并不意味人民币存在持续贬值的基础,因为最终决定人民币汇率的关键,还是中美经济增速的相对变动,而四季度国内经济的企稳复苏与大幅加息可能引发的美国经济衰退,终将缓解人民币贬值压力。对于央行而言,外汇市场的日益成熟与人民币汇率双边波动为其预期管理创造了有利条件。当前货币政策的首要目标仍是应对金融下行周期产生的内生动力不足,“稳字当头”与“以我为主”仍是未来一段时期货币政策继续坚持的原则。因此,汇率贬值不会改变货币政策的宽松基调,但宽松的方式与节奏可能调整。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":662263087,"gmtCreate":1666597191051,"gmtModify":1676537775035,"author":{"id":"3574060007850313","authorId":"3574060007850313","name":"abelxie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe62a369a447d1cfd54a6c78bada087","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574060007850313","authorIdStr":"3574060007850313"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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