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5 Picks For A Total Return Compounder Portfolio In 2024
MT17
2022-12-11
[What]
@雷递:康鵬科技遞交上會稿：9個月營收9.7億 爲楊建華家族企業
MT17
2022-05-10
Yes ofc
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... . . , , ,gskm, , ,. . . . ... I'm. . ,","listText":" ... . . , , ,gskm, , ,. . . . ... I'm. . ,","text":"... . . , , ,gskm, , ,. . . . ... I'm. . ,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/266957962850488","repostId":"2402896024","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2402896024","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1704903002,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2402896024?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-01-11 00:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Picks For A Total Return Compounder Portfolio In 2024","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2402896024","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"If I were deploying $10,000 or more of sidelined cash at the moment, this would be my favorite strategy.The picks entail 5 gradients of growth from the beginning of the credit cycle, to hyper growth, ","content":"<html><body><ul><li>If I were deploying $10,000 or more of sidelined cash at the moment, this would be my favorite strategy.</li><li>The picks entail 5 gradients of growth from the beginning of the credit cycle, to hyper growth, to primarily returning capital to shareholders.</li><li>This total return compounder portfolio is based on both growth and income, the goal is to beat the total return of the market over the next decade.</li><li>As the S&P 500 acts as a pulley for all stocks, whether they are value-based or not, I prefer to start indexing at the top of the market.</li></ul><figure><picture> <img height=\"3261px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1072593728/image_1072593728.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1072593728/image_1072593728.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1072593728/image_1072593728.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1072593728/image_1072593728.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1072593728/image_1072593728.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1072593728/image_1072593728.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1072593728/image_1072593728.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1072593728/image_1072593728.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1072593728/image_1072593728.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"5423px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>PM Images</p></figcaption></figure><h2>Rolling into 2024</h2> <p><span>The question of capital allocation in anticipation of retirement normally straddles the line of being heavily geared toward dividends and income. While I don't disagree that stocks that produce ample dividends are a wise investment choice, they are not<span> always the right answer all the time and in every market. I had previously produced an article regarding the low-cost S&P 500 Vanguard Index Fund (</span></span>VOO<span>),</span><span> It's Better To Be Roughly Right Than Precisely Wrong</span><span>, fleshing out indexing strategies for an over-bought market.</span></p> <p>As the S&P 500 (SP500)(SPX) acts as a pulley for all stocks, whether they are value-based or not, I prefer to start indexing at the top of the market when we get very close to all-time highs. As I am an investor who likes to buy and hold, not thinking about what a stock will do<span> in the next few years, I need to choose wisely when allocating new capital.</span></p> <p>As my value list starts to dry up a bit, and individuals begin to get greedy, I like to get out my surfboard for at least half of my new capital being invested. Below is my 5 pick portfolio to ride the wave up, and protect yourself should the tide go out.</p> <h2>The 5 gradients of growth this total return <span>compounder</span> portfolio</h2> <p>The 5 picks are going to follow a gradient that represent high growth to low growth and higher income. These 5 picks have proven to be superior total return compounders over time. The cycle of logic goes from the first stage of business, which is normally private credit, all the way through the economic life of a company until it becomes privatized once again because it has few places to reinvest its cash. This is an equal weighted portfolio as each have shown to be superior compounders in different parts of the market cycle.</p> <ol> <li>Diversified private credit markets- Ares Capital (ARCC)</li> <li>High growth - Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ)</li> <li>Medium growth- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)</li> <li>Low growth, high income- <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</a> (SCHD)</li> <li>Cash returners: Diversified private U.S. Business holdings- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)(BRK.A)</li> </ol> <h2>Gradient 1: Ares Capital Corporation</h2> <p><span>I am going to consider the first gradient of the portfolio to be </span><strong><span>Ares Capital</span></strong><span>. Credit is the first element to fuel growth. Without private equity formation, venture capital, and M&A, we would never see a lot of the growth companies in existence that we love today. Helping fund multiple processes from the beginning of a business coming into existence to helping small and medium businesses survive, Business development companies play a vital role in the process of helping a company grow and completing several types of business deals.</span></p> <p>BDCs also help save companies in need of financing when no other traditional banking institutions come to the rescue. They can also finance a company through the reorganization process as they consolidate their debts.</p> <p>BDCs offer a higher dividend than most other types of investments as they have to return 90% of earnings to shareholders. Private debt and equity is not cheap and investors in Ares Capital Corporation over time have reaped the benefits of the high cost of capital for middle market, mostly private borrowers.</p> <p><span>Ares has been one of the best BDC portfolio managers with a total return profile that nearly matches the S&P 500 over the last decade. </span>The company has nearly 45% of deals in first lien senior secured positions and about 25% of the portfolio is in software and software services. Not only are these returns competitive with equity and boost the yield of the portfolio, but the returns are contractual rather than implied.</p> <figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/saupload_3a82ead8ffb358cb4bf0f3780b5c04e5.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure><h2>Gradient 2: Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</h2> <p>The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has been one of the best total return ETFs you'll find over the previous decade. This is the highest gradient of equity growth stocks amongst the model portfolio. The fund mimics the Nasdaq 100, and the holdings are nearly 50% weighted to mega-cap tech growth companies:</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"473\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/55355197-17047407571899257.jpg\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure> <h3><strong>Total return QQQ</strong></h3> <figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/saupload_8d6187eef62d4e80f70a255e57eaa1a0.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure><p>This fund is no longer what the index represented circa 1999, where an eyeball or click-to-website ratio was all that could be mustered up for some of these names during that time. Most of these are now the most profitable and fast-growing companies in America.</p> <p>Yes, we pay much higher multiples for this fund and it will be far more volatile than the others on this list. However, dollar cost averaging into QQQ over time can help to boost the return of the overall portfolio.</p> <h2>Gradient 3: The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF</h2> <p>The third gradient, medium growth, contains both growth and mature companies, it is the most widely diversified of the lot. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is becoming more and more like the QQQ ETF all the time as the market cap weighting becomes larger for big tech. That shows that at this point in history, we are in a massive innovation phase and there is nothing wrong with that. On a total return basis, this fund has beaten almost all other diversified ETFs handily:</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"528\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/55355197-17047413682974246.jpg\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure><h3>Total return</h3> <figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/saupload_eeaa5093eadbeb2103c6b3739c2de906.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure><h2>Gradient 4: T<strong>he Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF</strong> </h2> <p>Slowing down in the growth cycle yet still achieving ample free cash flow and return on equity, a company becomes stabilized and starts to increase its return of capital to shareholders. This is well represented by <strong><span>The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF.</span></strong> After having a substandard 2023, this fund could be poised for a snapback as I see one market theme this year as a return to value from chasing growth. Total return wise over the past decade, this fund is right up there with the rest of them having an excellent total return and high dividend growth rate.</p> <p>The holdings are widely different than either QQQ or VOO and offer quite a bit of extra, non-overlapping diversification:</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"500\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/55355197-17047417999022498.jpg\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>The index referenced in SCHD is the Dow Dividend 100 index:</p> <blockquote><p><em>The Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index is designed to measure the performance of high-dividend-yielding stocks in the U.S. with a record of consistently paying dividends, selected for fundamental strength relative to their peers, based on financial ratios.</em></p></blockquote> <p>This methodology takes into consideration dividend growth over several consecutive years combined with return on equity requirements and free cash flow to total debt ratios. The methodology is a close one to some of the benchmarks of Benjamin Graham. The total return is evidence of the sound logic:</p> <figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/saupload_613516113c5cec14404995e9ff563260.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure><h2>Gradient 5: Berkshire Hathaway</h2> <p>Berkshire Hathaway is a diversified holdings company split almost down the middle between its diversified private business holdings and its publicly listed stock holdings segment. The amount of cash that Berkshire has been able to generate and stuff away in a now relatively high-yielding sack, along with the low amount of debt, makes Berkshire the company with one of the highest net worths of any out there.</p> <p>As amazing cash-flowing/dividend-paying companies get tired of playing the stock market game, many often make their way to the private holdings list of Berkshire Hathaway. Knowing that your money is invested in great businesses without market volatility themselves is unique.</p> <p>The types of companies Berkshire takes private are usually in the most mature phase of the cash-flowing cycle and don't often need the reassurance of raising new equity any longer.</p> <p>Warren Buffett loves such companies <strong>that have few options of where to invest excess cash or \"owner earnings\"</strong>, the proxy term Buffett uses for free cash flow. <strong>Sending lots of cash back to Berkshire</strong> allows the managers to either deploy it into the publicly traded holdings portfolio or build the interest bearing cash position even further. The companies are usually highly regulated and often times require substantial CAPEX, but retaining earnings for growth purposes is on the lowest end of these spectrums.</p> <p>The private businesses that Berkshire Hathaway gives you access to include:</p> <ul> <li>Insurance</li> <li>Railroads</li> <li>Utilities</li> <li>Manufacturing</li> <li>Consumer Products</li> <li>Service</li> <li>Retail</li> </ul> <p>The holdings company is the other, non-income generating segment except for dividends and capital gains which are rarely realized. These companies themselves have amazing earnings but are not reportable unless Berkshire owns a controlling stake. Here are the top 10 holdings:</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"406\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/55355197-17047427756407313.jpg\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Whalewisdom</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>The total return has held up with the best of them. Buffett has said as they grow, they expect to outperform in bad years for the market and underperform in good years for the market. Overall, this is an element I am very happy to own:</p> <figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/saupload_88a6e76e938e31331a3dee2f8b4ab82e.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure><h2>Charted against one another</h2> <figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/saupload_fad7b799d237403cb273b0ad7f78072b.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure><h2>Allocation pie chart</h2> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"423\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/55355197-1704743195514214.jpg\" width=\"577\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>portfoliovisualizer.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2>The backtested results</h2> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"281\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/1/8/55355197-17047433462845824.jpg\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>portfoliovisualizer.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p><strong>10 year results:</strong></p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup><col span=\"5\"/></colgroup> <tr> <td>PORTFOLIO</td> <td>INITIAL BALANCE</td> <td>CAGR</td> <td>MAX DRAWDOWN</td> <td>FINAL BALANCE</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Portfolio 1</td> <td>$10,000</td> <td>14.45%</td> <td>-21.74%</td> <td>$44,140</td> </tr> <tr> <td>SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust</td> <td>$10,000</td> <td>13.64%</td> <td>-23.93%</td> <td>$40,833</td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>Here we can see that this diversified fund portfolio was able to beat the compound annual growth rate of the market by almost 1% per year. Doesn't sound like a ton, but over time, the buy-and-hold investor would reap massive rewards with just an extra percent of Alpha over decades. The max drawdown was also two percentage points lower indicative of lower volatility.</p> <h2>A better dividend than the market to boot</h2> <p>This portfolio also entails a greater dividend yield than broad based S&P 500 index funds due to the inclusion of private credit in Ares and the high yield dividend trust SCHD. This yield is <strong>based on an equal weight allocation:</strong></p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup><col span=\"3\"/></colgroup> <tr> <td>STOCK</td> <td>YIELD</td> <td>5 Year DIVIDEND GROWTH RATE</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BRK.B</td> <td>0.00%</td> <td>0%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>VOO</td> <td>1.48%</td> <td>6.06%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>QQQ</td> <td>0.58%</td> <td>10.55%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>SCHD</td> <td>3.48%</td> <td>13.05%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARCC</td> <td>9.41%</td> <td>4.51%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>AVERAGE</td> <td><strong>2.99%</strong></td> <td><strong>7%</strong></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>With this fund allocation yielding near 3% yet still giving you a strong possibility of a market beating return, this allocation can whet the appetite of the growth and income investor alike.</p> <h2>Risks</h2> <p>Howard Marks has said that private credit, namely companies like Ares Capital, Oaktree (<span>OCSL<span>), Main Street (</span>MAIN<span>), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OBDC\">Blue Owl Capital Corporation</a> (</span>OBDC</span>), and others, should do well as long as the FED rate is in the 2-4% range versus 0-2%. I believe he's right and 0-2% levels should only be reserved for true emergencies. That being said, a tidal wave of commercial real estate and U.S. Treasuries maturing could be a factor that would put the rate under 2%. That being said, Ares has still been able to keep up with the total return of the S&P 500 index despite very unfavorable rate environments during the past 10 years.</p> <p>If we hit a prolonged recession at some point, many analysts have opined that this relatively new publicly traded asset, private credit, will take a hit larger than most. If the manager has sufficiently prepared for the risk, they may even do better in that type of environment under the surface regardless of what the price action entails. Reinvesting the dividend on large-yielding BDCs could buy you low-cost shares with yields near 20% should the market get rough. The large yield on cost of those shares could make up for any regression in total return further down the line if the share price recovers.</p> <p><span>Berkshire Hathaway faces questions about leadership and what might happen should his successor, Gregory Abel take over the company. I believe Warren Buffett has arranged the company for long-term success regardless of whether Buffett is the face of the organization or not. Others would disagree, but I am very comfortable accumulating Berkshire for the long haul. Out of the 5 picks, these are the two that have the greatest risks over general market Beta risk. </span></p> <h2>Ride the wave</h2> <p>Value investors have no idea how long the elevated market multiple will last. The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is now a tad above 20 X. In my opinion, a 10-15% correction would put the market back in line with historical averages as long as earnings continue to grow as expected. While I have a long list of value stocks that I nibble at, I realize that a market correction will take those down a peg as well.</p> <p>I also realize that I have no control over the market sentiment and the market can stay hot longer than the short-seller can remain solvent. With over $6 trillion in cash and money markets on the sideline in a declining rate environment [although the FED hasn't cut we are already seeing organic rate declines in our money market funds], I have no way to predict the madness of men.</p> <p>Some would argue that buying deep value would protect an investor in a market correction. Possibly so in the past. Now that everything has been consolidated into market segment mutual funds and ETFs, the ships usually sink together and single equities have more price variability than diversified funds and diversified fund proxies like Berkshire Hathaway and Ares. If the market corrects hard, the great deals will get even better.</p> <div></div> <p>In this instance, I am going back to riding the wave and protecting my downside. These 5 picks are ones I am confident, I will never regret. Only when the tide goes out during a correction or a crash do I enjoy looking for blue chips on the ocean floor. If I were deploying $10,000 to $1 million in cash that has been idle on the sidelines, this portfolio would help me sleep well at night. These 5 gradients serve different purposes at different times and cycles of the market, but all will contribute to the circle of commerce that binds it.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Picks For A Total Return Compounder Portfolio In 2024</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Picks For A Total Return Compounder Portfolio In 2024\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-11 00:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4662157-5-picks-for-a-total-return-compounder-portfolio-in-2024><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If I were deploying $10,000 or more of sidelined cash at the moment, this would be my favorite strategy.The picks entail 5 gradients of growth from the beginning of the credit cycle, to hyper growth, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4662157-5-picks-for-a-total-return-compounder-portfolio-in-2024\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1072593728/image_1072593728.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4593":"纳斯达克ETF","TSS":"Total System Services","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","ARCC":"阿瑞斯","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","SCHD":"Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","BK4588":"碎股","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","BK4176":"多领域控股","MAIN":"Main Street Capital","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","OBDC":"Blue Owl Capital Corporation","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","SH":"标普500反向ETF","OCSL":"Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4662157-5-picks-for-a-total-return-compounder-portfolio-in-2024","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2402896024","content_text":"If I were deploying $10,000 or more of sidelined cash at the moment, this would be my favorite strategy.The picks entail 5 gradients of growth from the beginning of the credit cycle, to hyper growth, to primarily returning capital to shareholders.This total return compounder portfolio is based on both growth and income, the goal is to beat the total return of the market over the next decade.As the S&P 500 acts as a pulley for all stocks, whether they are value-based or not, I prefer to start indexing at the top of the market. PM ImagesRolling into 2024 The question of capital allocation in anticipation of retirement normally straddles the line of being heavily geared toward dividends and income. While I don't disagree that stocks that produce ample dividends are a wise investment choice, they are not always the right answer all the time and in every market. I had previously produced an article regarding the low-cost S&P 500 Vanguard Index Fund (VOO), It's Better To Be Roughly Right Than Precisely Wrong, fleshing out indexing strategies for an over-bought market. As the S&P 500 (SP500)(SPX) acts as a pulley for all stocks, whether they are value-based or not, I prefer to start indexing at the top of the market when we get very close to all-time highs. As I am an investor who likes to buy and hold, not thinking about what a stock will do in the next few years, I need to choose wisely when allocating new capital. As my value list starts to dry up a bit, and individuals begin to get greedy, I like to get out my surfboard for at least half of my new capital being invested. Below is my 5 pick portfolio to ride the wave up, and protect yourself should the tide go out. The 5 gradients of growth this total return compounder portfolio The 5 picks are going to follow a gradient that represent high growth to low growth and higher income. These 5 picks have proven to be superior total return compounders over time. The cycle of logic goes from the first stage of business, which is normally private credit, all the way through the economic life of a company until it becomes privatized once again because it has few places to reinvest its cash. This is an equal weighted portfolio as each have shown to be superior compounders in different parts of the market cycle. Diversified private credit markets- Ares Capital (ARCC) High growth - Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) Medium growth- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) Low growth, high income- Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) Cash returners: Diversified private U.S. Business holdings- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)(BRK.A) Gradient 1: Ares Capital Corporation I am going to consider the first gradient of the portfolio to be Ares Capital. Credit is the first element to fuel growth. Without private equity formation, venture capital, and M&A, we would never see a lot of the growth companies in existence that we love today. Helping fund multiple processes from the beginning of a business coming into existence to helping small and medium businesses survive, Business development companies play a vital role in the process of helping a company grow and completing several types of business deals. BDCs also help save companies in need of financing when no other traditional banking institutions come to the rescue. They can also finance a company through the reorganization process as they consolidate their debts. BDCs offer a higher dividend than most other types of investments as they have to return 90% of earnings to shareholders. Private debt and equity is not cheap and investors in Ares Capital Corporation over time have reaped the benefits of the high cost of capital for middle market, mostly private borrowers. Ares has been one of the best BDC portfolio managers with a total return profile that nearly matches the S&P 500 over the last decade. The company has nearly 45% of deals in first lien senior secured positions and about 25% of the portfolio is in software and software services. Not only are these returns competitive with equity and boost the yield of the portfolio, but the returns are contractual rather than implied. Data by YChartsGradient 2: Invesco QQQ Trust ETF The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has been one of the best total return ETFs you'll find over the previous decade. This is the highest gradient of equity growth stocks amongst the model portfolio. The fund mimics the Nasdaq 100, and the holdings are nearly 50% weighted to mega-cap tech growth companies: Seeking Alpha Total return QQQ Data by YChartsThis fund is no longer what the index represented circa 1999, where an eyeball or click-to-website ratio was all that could be mustered up for some of these names during that time. Most of these are now the most profitable and fast-growing companies in America. Yes, we pay much higher multiples for this fund and it will be far more volatile than the others on this list. However, dollar cost averaging into QQQ over time can help to boost the return of the overall portfolio. Gradient 3: The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF The third gradient, medium growth, contains both growth and mature companies, it is the most widely diversified of the lot. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is becoming more and more like the QQQ ETF all the time as the market cap weighting becomes larger for big tech. That shows that at this point in history, we are in a massive innovation phase and there is nothing wrong with that. On a total return basis, this fund has beaten almost all other diversified ETFs handily: Seeking AlphaTotal return Data by YChartsGradient 4: The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF Slowing down in the growth cycle yet still achieving ample free cash flow and return on equity, a company becomes stabilized and starts to increase its return of capital to shareholders. This is well represented by The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF. After having a substandard 2023, this fund could be poised for a snapback as I see one market theme this year as a return to value from chasing growth. Total return wise over the past decade, this fund is right up there with the rest of them having an excellent total return and high dividend growth rate. The holdings are widely different than either QQQ or VOO and offer quite a bit of extra, non-overlapping diversification: Seeking AlphaThe index referenced in SCHD is the Dow Dividend 100 index: The Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index is designed to measure the performance of high-dividend-yielding stocks in the U.S. with a record of consistently paying dividends, selected for fundamental strength relative to their peers, based on financial ratios. This methodology takes into consideration dividend growth over several consecutive years combined with return on equity requirements and free cash flow to total debt ratios. The methodology is a close one to some of the benchmarks of Benjamin Graham. The total return is evidence of the sound logic: Data by YChartsGradient 5: Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway is a diversified holdings company split almost down the middle between its diversified private business holdings and its publicly listed stock holdings segment. The amount of cash that Berkshire has been able to generate and stuff away in a now relatively high-yielding sack, along with the low amount of debt, makes Berkshire the company with one of the highest net worths of any out there. As amazing cash-flowing/dividend-paying companies get tired of playing the stock market game, many often make their way to the private holdings list of Berkshire Hathaway. Knowing that your money is invested in great businesses without market volatility themselves is unique. The types of companies Berkshire takes private are usually in the most mature phase of the cash-flowing cycle and don't often need the reassurance of raising new equity any longer. Warren Buffett loves such companies that have few options of where to invest excess cash or \"owner earnings\", the proxy term Buffett uses for free cash flow. Sending lots of cash back to Berkshire allows the managers to either deploy it into the publicly traded holdings portfolio or build the interest bearing cash position even further. The companies are usually highly regulated and often times require substantial CAPEX, but retaining earnings for growth purposes is on the lowest end of these spectrums. The private businesses that Berkshire Hathaway gives you access to include: Insurance Railroads Utilities Manufacturing Consumer Products Service Retail The holdings company is the other, non-income generating segment except for dividends and capital gains which are rarely realized. These companies themselves have amazing earnings but are not reportable unless Berkshire owns a controlling stake. Here are the top 10 holdings: WhalewisdomThe total return has held up with the best of them. Buffett has said as they grow, they expect to outperform in bad years for the market and underperform in good years for the market. Overall, this is an element I am very happy to own: Data by YChartsCharted against one another Data by YChartsAllocation pie chart portfoliovisualizer.comThe backtested results portfoliovisualizer.com10 year results: PORTFOLIO INITIAL BALANCE CAGR MAX DRAWDOWN FINAL BALANCE Portfolio 1 $10,000 14.45% -21.74% $44,140 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust $10,000 13.64% -23.93% $40,833 Click to enlarge Here we can see that this diversified fund portfolio was able to beat the compound annual growth rate of the market by almost 1% per year. Doesn't sound like a ton, but over time, the buy-and-hold investor would reap massive rewards with just an extra percent of Alpha over decades. The max drawdown was also two percentage points lower indicative of lower volatility. A better dividend than the market to boot This portfolio also entails a greater dividend yield than broad based S&P 500 index funds due to the inclusion of private credit in Ares and the high yield dividend trust SCHD. This yield is based on an equal weight allocation: STOCK YIELD 5 Year DIVIDEND GROWTH RATE BRK.B 0.00% 0% VOO 1.48% 6.06% QQQ 0.58% 10.55% SCHD 3.48% 13.05% ARCC 9.41% 4.51% AVERAGE 2.99% 7% Click to enlarge With this fund allocation yielding near 3% yet still giving you a strong possibility of a market beating return, this allocation can whet the appetite of the growth and income investor alike. Risks Howard Marks has said that private credit, namely companies like Ares Capital, Oaktree (OCSL), Main Street (MAIN), Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC), and others, should do well as long as the FED rate is in the 2-4% range versus 0-2%. I believe he's right and 0-2% levels should only be reserved for true emergencies. That being said, a tidal wave of commercial real estate and U.S. Treasuries maturing could be a factor that would put the rate under 2%. That being said, Ares has still been able to keep up with the total return of the S&P 500 index despite very unfavorable rate environments during the past 10 years. If we hit a prolonged recession at some point, many analysts have opined that this relatively new publicly traded asset, private credit, will take a hit larger than most. If the manager has sufficiently prepared for the risk, they may even do better in that type of environment under the surface regardless of what the price action entails. Reinvesting the dividend on large-yielding BDCs could buy you low-cost shares with yields near 20% should the market get rough. The large yield on cost of those shares could make up for any regression in total return further down the line if the share price recovers. Berkshire Hathaway faces questions about leadership and what might happen should his successor, Gregory Abel take over the company. I believe Warren Buffett has arranged the company for long-term success regardless of whether Buffett is the face of the organization or not. Others would disagree, but I am very comfortable accumulating Berkshire for the long haul. Out of the 5 picks, these are the two that have the greatest risks over general market Beta risk. Ride the wave Value investors have no idea how long the elevated market multiple will last. The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is now a tad above 20 X. In my opinion, a 10-15% correction would put the market back in line with historical averages as long as earnings continue to grow as expected. While I have a long list of value stocks that I nibble at, I realize that a market correction will take those down a peg as well. I also realize that I have no control over the market sentiment and the market can stay hot longer than the short-seller can remain solvent. With over $6 trillion in cash and money markets on the sideline in a declining rate environment [although the FED hasn't cut we are already seeing organic rate declines in our money market funds], I have no way to predict the madness of men. Some would argue that buying deep value would protect an investor in a market correction. Possibly so in the past. Now that everything has been consolidated into market segment mutual funds and ETFs, the ships usually sink together and single equities have more price variability than diversified funds and diversified fund proxies like Berkshire Hathaway and Ares. If the market corrects hard, the great deals will get even better. In this instance, I am going back to riding the wave and protecting my downside. These 5 picks are ones I am confident, I will never regret. Only when the tide goes out during a correction or a crash do I enjoy looking for blue chips on the ocean floor. If I were deploying $10,000 to $1 million in cash that has been idle on the sidelines, this portfolio would help me sleep well at night. These 5 gradients serve different purposes at different times and cycles of the market, but all will contribute to the circle of commerce that binds it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929783175,"gmtCreate":1670731620097,"gmtModify":1676538425141,"author":{"id":"3574672033798806","authorId":"3574672033798806","name":"MT17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e85145d26207a74edd9033899c7f4d34","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574672033798806","authorIdStr":"3574672033798806"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[What]","listText":"[What]","text":"[What]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929783175","repostId":"629494362","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":629494362,"gmtCreate":1670730886858,"gmtModify":1676538425020,"author":{"id":"3520120256277227","authorId":"3520120256277227","name":"雷递","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d76d196de1b078825d97644631d0f1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3520120256277227","authorIdStr":"3520120256277227"},"themes":[],"title":"康鵬科技遞交上會稿：9個月營收9.7億 爲楊建華家族企業","htmlText":"雷遞網 雷建平 12月11日上海康鵬科技股份有限公司（簡稱：“康鵬科技”）日前遞交上會稿，準備在科創板上市。康鵬科技計劃募資10億元，其中，8億元用於蘭州康鵬新能源科技有限公司2.55萬噸/年電池材料項目（一期）一階段，2億元用於補充流動資金。9個月營收9.7億康鵬科技是一家深耕於精細化工領域的技術驅動型企業，主要從事精細化學品的研發、生產和銷售。產品主要爲新材料及醫藥和農藥化學品，新材料產品主要覆蓋顯示材料、新能源電池材料及電子化學品、有機硅材料等領域，向下遊銷售定製的醫藥和農藥化學品屬於CDMO業務。招股書顯示，康鵬科技2019年、2020年、2021年營收分別爲6.87億元、6.29億元、10億元；淨利分別爲1.43億元、9260.78萬元、1.38億元；扣非後淨利分別爲1.2億元、8160萬元、1.61億元。康鵬科技2022年上半年營收爲6.22億元，淨利爲9677萬元，扣非後淨利爲8919.74萬元。招股書顯示，康鵬科技2022年前9個月營收爲9.7億元，較上年同期的7億元增長37.69%；淨利爲1.43億元，較上年同期的1.33億元增長8%；扣非後淨利爲1.36億元，較上年同期的1.23億元增長10.91%。康鵬科技預計2022年營收11.8億到12.3億，同比增長17.41%-22.39%；歸屬於母公司所有者的淨利潤爲1.78億到1.83億元，同比增長28.99%到32.61%;扣非後淨利潤爲1.62億到1.68億元，同比增長0.62%-4.35%。楊建華家族爲實控人康鵬科技的實際控制人曾在境外搭建紅籌架構，並以Chemspec International爲境外上市主體於2009年6月在紐交所上市，康鵬科技爲Chemspec International間接持股100%股權的中國境內公司。2011年，Chemspec International完成私有化並從紐交","listText":"雷遞網 雷建平 12月11日上海康鵬科技股份有限公司（簡稱：“康鵬科技”）日前遞交上會稿，準備在科創板上市。康鵬科技計劃募資10億元，其中，8億元用於蘭州康鵬新能源科技有限公司2.55萬噸/年電池材料項目（一期）一階段，2億元用於補充流動資金。9個月營收9.7億康鵬科技是一家深耕於精細化工領域的技術驅動型企業，主要從事精細化學品的研發、生產和銷售。產品主要爲新材料及醫藥和農藥化學品，新材料產品主要覆蓋顯示材料、新能源電池材料及電子化學品、有機硅材料等領域，向下遊銷售定製的醫藥和農藥化學品屬於CDMO業務。招股書顯示，康鵬科技2019年、2020年、2021年營收分別爲6.87億元、6.29億元、10億元；淨利分別爲1.43億元、9260.78萬元、1.38億元；扣非後淨利分別爲1.2億元、8160萬元、1.61億元。康鵬科技2022年上半年營收爲6.22億元，淨利爲9677萬元，扣非後淨利爲8919.74萬元。招股書顯示，康鵬科技2022年前9個月營收爲9.7億元，較上年同期的7億元增長37.69%；淨利爲1.43億元，較上年同期的1.33億元增長8%；扣非後淨利爲1.36億元，較上年同期的1.23億元增長10.91%。康鵬科技預計2022年營收11.8億到12.3億，同比增長17.41%-22.39%；歸屬於母公司所有者的淨利潤爲1.78億到1.83億元，同比增長28.99%到32.61%;扣非後淨利潤爲1.62億到1.68億元，同比增長0.62%-4.35%。楊建華家族爲實控人康鵬科技的實際控制人曾在境外搭建紅籌架構，並以Chemspec International爲境外上市主體於2009年6月在紐交所上市，康鵬科技爲Chemspec International間接持股100%股權的中國境內公司。2011年，Chemspec International完成私有化並從紐交","text":"雷遞網 雷建平 12月11日上海康鵬科技股份有限公司（簡稱：“康鵬科技”）日前遞交上會稿，準備在科創板上市。康鵬科技計劃募資10億元，其中，8億元用於蘭州康鵬新能源科技有限公司2.55萬噸/年電池材料項目（一期）一階段，2億元用於補充流動資金。9個月營收9.7億康鵬科技是一家深耕於精細化工領域的技術驅動型企業，主要從事精細化學品的研發、生產和銷售。產品主要爲新材料及醫藥和農藥化學品，新材料產品主要覆蓋顯示材料、新能源電池材料及電子化學品、有機硅材料等領域，向下遊銷售定製的醫藥和農藥化學品屬於CDMO業務。招股書顯示，康鵬科技2019年、2020年、2021年營收分別爲6.87億元、6.29億元、10億元；淨利分別爲1.43億元、9260.78萬元、1.38億元；扣非後淨利分別爲1.2億元、8160萬元、1.61億元。康鵬科技2022年上半年營收爲6.22億元，淨利爲9677萬元，扣非後淨利爲8919.74萬元。招股書顯示，康鵬科技2022年前9個月營收爲9.7億元，較上年同期的7億元增長37.69%；淨利爲1.43億元，較上年同期的1.33億元增長8%；扣非後淨利爲1.36億元，較上年同期的1.23億元增長10.91%。康鵬科技預計2022年營收11.8億到12.3億，同比增長17.41%-22.39%；歸屬於母公司所有者的淨利潤爲1.78億到1.83億元，同比增長28.99%到32.61%;扣非後淨利潤爲1.62億到1.68億元，同比增長0.62%-4.35%。楊建華家族爲實控人康鵬科技的實際控制人曾在境外搭建紅籌架構，並以Chemspec International爲境外上市主體於2009年6月在紐交所上市，康鵬科技爲Chemspec International間接持股100%股權的中國境內公司。2011年，Chemspec 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