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2021-08-04
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Alphabet wants to make its own smartphone chips — what in the world is the company thinking?
Alexyeo
2021-08-02
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Apple did something similar and had a difficult transition\n(Photo credit","content":"<p>It’s a big, and risky, bet. Apple did something similar and had a difficult transition</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729798ae4b174d85419678e03af11d00\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"699\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Photo credit should read Alain Jocard/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>Alphabet said Monday it will take its silicon building in-house when it launches a new flagship line of Google Pixel phones.</p>\n<p>The company’s move creates as many questions as it does answers. Perhaps the first being,with only about 2% of the U.S. smartphone market and no real sign of that changing, does a bet like this make sense?</p>\n<p>While much of the analysis of this news pointed to it as a positive step for AlphabetGOOG,+0.21%,I interpreted it as a desperate attempt for the company to make headlines about its poor-performing line of mobile devices and to do so by taking a risk that even AppleAAPL,+1.26%isn’t yet willing to take when it comes to its vertical integration into semiconductors.</p>\n<p><b>Apple’s foreshadowing</b></p>\n<p>Apple made headlines over the past few years with its departure from Intel and the introduction of its M1 architecture. This transition from Intel to homegrown processors built on the increasingly popular Arm architecture was done methodically over several years to ensure that the change would go smoothly. For the most part, the M1 launched without significant incident, but its critics would be the first to point out that the transition was anything but flawless.</p>\n<p>It’s also worth pointing out that Apple, while it has incorporated a number of its cores to handle capabilities like image sensing and graphics, has left the modem and radio, oft-referred to as RFFE, to Qualcomm,due to the complexity of building a modem-RF system for 5G, which is incredibly complicated and proper function is imperative to get devices certified by different carriers like Verizon,AT&T,T-Mobile and others.</p>\n<p>For some reason that I simply cannot understand, Alphabet wants to abandon not only the Qualcomm Snapdragon, which most simply can be considered the full set of systems to power all the phones features, and ditch it for its own set of cores, but allegedly also abandon Qualcomm’s proven modem-RF system to use (rumored) Samsung’s Exynos, which has almost zero market penetration and has run into issues with power management and carrier certification. Even Samsung uses Qualcomm’s modem-RF system for large portions of its flagship devices, including its U.S. flagship devices. Apple does as well.</p>\n<p>Returning us to the question: What in the world is Alphabet doing here, and does it make any sense?</p>\n<p><b>Vertical integration</b></p>\n<p>The short answer is yes, and no, but mostly no. At least for Alphabet.</p>\n<p>The argument to favor this change comes down to profitability and control for Alphabet. Apple has proven that deeper vertical integration can be lucrative, and its Bionic chips have continued to improve with each generation. Alphabet, which has built a very limited set of custom ASICs (application specific integrated circuits) for artificial intelligence (AI), wants the market to see it as every bit as capable of this type of move as Apple.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, we have seen Amazon’s AWS and Alibaba build Arm-based solutions for their cloud offerings, and Microsoft has also been touted to be following suit. For the data center, this seems to make sense, with AWS, for instance, seeing success from its Graviton line of CPUs and Trainium series of ML chips. No one would be surprised to see Alphabet significantly increase its efforts to launch or further enhance custom silicon development for its cloud and AI offerings. But servers, and even notebooks, aren’t mobile devices.</p>\n<p>To launch the M1, Apple spent years on R&D and made several key acquisitions, including Dialog Semiconductor in 2018 for $600 million to add to its internal chipmaking and systems capabilities. It even acquired the remnants of Intel’s mobile modem business upon deciding to move away from Intel on the horizon of 5G. But, with all of that IP, and investment in tow, and even a multi-year legal feud with Qualcomm, Apple still recognized there were some things better left to be done by Qualcomm.</p>\n<p>Perhaps Alphabet figures with almost no market share and no notoriety around its Pixel smartphone lineup that it doesn’t matter if the Pixel 6 series is a disaster.</p>\n<p>And perhaps Google will surprise the world by using its cores plus a lesser-quality modem-RF system to somehow put out a device that will outperform Apple, Samsung and dozens of other handset makers that have entrusted Qualcomm to provide the guts of their devices.</p>\n<p>I doubt it, though, and if nearly a decade of insignificant market penetration with their mobile devices serves as an indicator of how well this move will go for Alphabet, I think it’s safe to chalk this up in the L column.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet wants to make its own smartphone chips — what in the world is the company thinking?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet wants to make its own smartphone chips — what in the world is the company thinking?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-04 14:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabet-wants-to-make-its-own-smartphone-chips-what-in-the-world-is-the-company-thinking-11628003771?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s a big, and risky, bet. Apple did something similar and had a difficult transition\n(Photo credit should read Alain Jocard/AFP via Getty Images)\nAlphabet said Monday it will take its silicon ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabet-wants-to-make-its-own-smartphone-chips-what-in-the-world-is-the-company-thinking-11628003771?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabet-wants-to-make-its-own-smartphone-chips-what-in-the-world-is-the-company-thinking-11628003771?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135713978","content_text":"It’s a big, and risky, bet. Apple did something similar and had a difficult transition\n(Photo credit should read Alain Jocard/AFP via Getty Images)\nAlphabet said Monday it will take its silicon building in-house when it launches a new flagship line of Google Pixel phones.\nThe company’s move creates as many questions as it does answers. Perhaps the first being,with only about 2% of the U.S. smartphone market and no real sign of that changing, does a bet like this make sense?\nWhile much of the analysis of this news pointed to it as a positive step for AlphabetGOOG,+0.21%,I interpreted it as a desperate attempt for the company to make headlines about its poor-performing line of mobile devices and to do so by taking a risk that even AppleAAPL,+1.26%isn’t yet willing to take when it comes to its vertical integration into semiconductors.\nApple’s foreshadowing\nApple made headlines over the past few years with its departure from Intel and the introduction of its M1 architecture. This transition from Intel to homegrown processors built on the increasingly popular Arm architecture was done methodically over several years to ensure that the change would go smoothly. For the most part, the M1 launched without significant incident, but its critics would be the first to point out that the transition was anything but flawless.\nIt’s also worth pointing out that Apple, while it has incorporated a number of its cores to handle capabilities like image sensing and graphics, has left the modem and radio, oft-referred to as RFFE, to Qualcomm,due to the complexity of building a modem-RF system for 5G, which is incredibly complicated and proper function is imperative to get devices certified by different carriers like Verizon,AT&T,T-Mobile and others.\nFor some reason that I simply cannot understand, Alphabet wants to abandon not only the Qualcomm Snapdragon, which most simply can be considered the full set of systems to power all the phones features, and ditch it for its own set of cores, but allegedly also abandon Qualcomm’s proven modem-RF system to use (rumored) Samsung’s Exynos, which has almost zero market penetration and has run into issues with power management and carrier certification. Even Samsung uses Qualcomm’s modem-RF system for large portions of its flagship devices, including its U.S. flagship devices. Apple does as well.\nReturning us to the question: What in the world is Alphabet doing here, and does it make any sense?\nVertical integration\nThe short answer is yes, and no, but mostly no. At least for Alphabet.\nThe argument to favor this change comes down to profitability and control for Alphabet. Apple has proven that deeper vertical integration can be lucrative, and its Bionic chips have continued to improve with each generation. Alphabet, which has built a very limited set of custom ASICs (application specific integrated circuits) for artificial intelligence (AI), wants the market to see it as every bit as capable of this type of move as Apple.\nFurthermore, we have seen Amazon’s AWS and Alibaba build Arm-based solutions for their cloud offerings, and Microsoft has also been touted to be following suit. For the data center, this seems to make sense, with AWS, for instance, seeing success from its Graviton line of CPUs and Trainium series of ML chips. No one would be surprised to see Alphabet significantly increase its efforts to launch or further enhance custom silicon development for its cloud and AI offerings. But servers, and even notebooks, aren’t mobile devices.\nTo launch the M1, Apple spent years on R&D and made several key acquisitions, including Dialog Semiconductor in 2018 for $600 million to add to its internal chipmaking and systems capabilities. It even acquired the remnants of Intel’s mobile modem business upon deciding to move away from Intel on the horizon of 5G. But, with all of that IP, and investment in tow, and even a multi-year legal feud with Qualcomm, Apple still recognized there were some things better left to be done by Qualcomm.\nPerhaps Alphabet figures with almost no market share and no notoriety around its Pixel smartphone lineup that it doesn’t matter if the Pixel 6 series is a disaster.\nAnd perhaps Google will surprise the world by using its cores plus a lesser-quality modem-RF system to somehow put out a device that will outperform Apple, Samsung and dozens of other handset makers that have entrusted Qualcomm to provide the guts of their devices.\nI doubt it, though, and if nearly a decade of insignificant market penetration with their mobile devices serves as an indicator of how well this move will go for Alphabet, I think it’s safe to chalk this up in the L column.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805819698,"gmtCreate":1627869437114,"gmtModify":1703496845352,"author":{"id":"3574917385549292","authorId":"3574917385549292","name":"Alexyeo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574917385549292","authorIdStr":"3574917385549292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A","listText":"A","text":"A","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805819698","repostId":"1130492644","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":890995561,"gmtCreate":1628073673553,"gmtModify":1703500690125,"author":{"id":"3574917385549292","authorId":"3574917385549292","name":"Alexyeo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574917385549292","idStr":"3574917385549292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890995561","repostId":"1135713978","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805819698,"gmtCreate":1627869437114,"gmtModify":1703496845352,"author":{"id":"3574917385549292","authorId":"3574917385549292","name":"Alexyeo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574917385549292","idStr":"3574917385549292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A","listText":"A","text":"A","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805819698","repostId":"1130492644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130492644","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627867792,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130492644?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130492644","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Dividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.</li>\n <li>Apple’s current high growth is temporary.</li>\n <li>Apple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e45c69c559fb64f9cda12fb93f34c0d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Christopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Investors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.</p>\n<p>Apple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.</p>\n<p><b>Why Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory</b></p>\n<p>Dividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a469d363e933b84759428285f957590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alphadividend yield</span></p>\n<p>Here we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.</p>\n<p>The reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991e5d3137bf5ac3c9bc4aaf26c01581\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018</span></p>\n<p>That is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.</p>\n<p><b>This Time Is not different</b></p>\n<p>I know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.</p>\n<p>It is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae87be3f096ac0a13d2e38634b8c34c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*</span></p>\n<p>As we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home & Accessories.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef98109e802b72a60990d870e23814d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"114\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Again the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b71f026725256789694ea1ff46574c4a\" tg-width=\"393\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author</span></p>\n<p>The pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a62395de39d598a2d5fb553eca56086d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2017 10-K</span></p>\n<p>Here we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e63c1a8fd16ae504ee3794c0eff4198\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple2020 10-K</span></p>\n<p>Again it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.</p>\n<p>When we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3954b0d588d038dc2dd5e88c39c5ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Patterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.</p>\n<p>The iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.</p>\n<p><b>Apple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow</b></p>\n<p>Investors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.</p>\n<p>At the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Growth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.</li>\n <li>An expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%</li>\n <li>Apple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>All of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.</p>\n<p>Apple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.</p>\n<p><b>Risk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase</b></p>\n<p>Based on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.</p>\n<p>The expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/153079186d84770e064411e34a42745e\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"74\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement</span></p>\n<p>Lastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Sell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Take Your Profits Now, Come Back Later\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 09:29 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443676-apple-take-your-profits-before-its-too-late><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.\nApple’s current high growth is temporary.\nApple is on its way to becoming a dividend ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443676-apple-take-your-profits-before-its-too-late\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4443676-apple-take-your-profits-before-its-too-late","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130492644","content_text":"Summary\n\nDividend Yield Theory is a great indicator of overvalued and undervalued shares for healthy companies.\nApple’s current high growth is temporary.\nApple is on its way to becoming a dividend aristocrat.\n\nChristopher Jue/Getty Images Entertainment\nInvestment Thesis\nInvestors are treating Apple (AAPL) as if it has found a second growth spurt. In reality Apple is now a fully grown cash cow, not a young budding calf. The pandemic made many companies transition to the internet faster than they wanted to. That is good for Apple but because it was already a mature business prior to the pandemic it will revert to its normal pre-pandemic growth rates.\nApple’s 5 year average dividend yield from 2016 to 2020 is 1.46% currently the dividend yield on Apple is 0.68%. Apple has been paying a dividend for almost 10 years and the average is also pointing to a yield of ~1.4%. In order for Apple to offer such a yield, share prices would have to move down toward range of $75-$85. Now is the time to take your Apple profits before it reverts to the mean.\nWhy Apple Is Overvalued, Dividend Yield Theory\nDividend Yield Theory was popularized by Investment Quality Trends founder Geraldine Weiss through a book titled Dividends Don’t Lie. The essence of Dividend Yield Theory is that high quality companies tend to have a “normal” yield and as the market falls in love or out of love with the company the dividend yield fluctuates to create buy and sell opportunities.\nSource: Seeking Alphadividend yield\nHere we have Apple’s Dividend Yield History. Looking at the average yield column you can see that Apple’s current average yield is the lowest since Apple first started paying a dividend. This indicates Apple is a screaming sell. On the flip side, the last time Apple’s average yield was above 2% was in 2016. At that time Apple was a screaming buy. Coincidentally that was the same year Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) began buying Apple shares.\nThe reason this works is because the dividend yield is a product of the share price. Looking at the chart above you can see the dividend yield shrank from 2016 through 2018 which indicates the share price of Apple increased.\nSource: Yahoo Finance, Apple Share price from 01/01/2016 - 12/31/2018\nThat is exactly what happened. At the peak of 2018 Apple’s dividend yield was 1.28%. At this time, Apple’s 5-year yield average was 1.86%. When 2018 ended Apple’s dividend yield was 1.97%. As you can now see, a company’s dividend yield can be a good proxy for value.\nThis Time Is not different\nI know some of you at this point are thinking, well, Dividend Yield Theory is nice and all but thanks to Covid this time is different. I don’t believe this time is different for Apple and the reason is because of Apple’s maturity as a business prior to the pandemic.\nIt is true that Apple and many other tech companies are benefiting from the pandemic, but Apple has a significant difference from a Shopify, a Zoom, and a Disney Plus. Namely Apple had already largely penetrated its total addressable market. Prior to the pandemic, most of us had never heard of Zoom. We started working from home and needed a solution for remote communication, and bam Zoom capitalizes. Prior to the pandemic, the iPhone was still the smartphone to beat, the smartphone with tens of millions of users, the must-have status symbol in places as far away as China. I spent a semester abroad in China in 2012. During that time, my professors told us how important status symbols are to the Chinese. Students of all ages would not go to school until their parents had bought them an iPhone because without it they would lose “face”. Many could not afford the phone plans and I and my friends witnessed many people having an iPhone just for show. That was in 2012, 8 years before the pandemic.\nSource: Apple Q3 2021*covers Apr – Jun 2021*\nAs we can see, the majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products. Further down products are identified as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home & Accessories.\n\nAgain the iPhone makes up the majority. The high growth rate in iPhone sales also backs up the theory that this round of growth is due to the Apple super cycle which seems to take place once every 3 years.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Financials, compiled by author\nThe pattern for the last 10 years has been 1 year of stellar growth followed by 2 years of much slower growth. As you can see this results in a 10-year CAGR of ~10% - 13% depending on where we are in the cycle.\nSource: Apple2017 10-K\nHere we see the 2015 super cycle followed by the growth declines in 2016 and 2017.\nSource: Apple2020 10-K\nAgain it happened in the more recent super cycle of 2018 followed by declines in growth for years 2019 and 2020.\nWhen we look into the revenue by product for these periods, we can see that iPhone sales decline and the other categories are unable to make up for the loss of revenue the next year. In the following year, 2017 and 2020, other sources of revenue increased enough for Apple’s total revenue to increase.\n\nPatterns are likely to repeat until something happens to change them. I don't see such a catalyst on the horizon, and currently iPhone sales are again carrying Apple’s revenue to record levels. iPhone sales seem to be selling so well because of the coming transition to 5G and many iPhone owners have a device that is at least 3 years old.\nThe iPhone 12 was unveiled and released in October 2020. This means the super cycle is expected to end with the iPhone 13 which is expected to come out in September or October. I believe this indicates FY 2022 will be a rough year for Apple shareholders.\nApple’s Third And Final Act - A Cash Cow\nInvestors need to pay attention to Apple’s future as a dividend aristocrat. Apple is transitioning toward more service based revenues. This is a higher margin business but there is less explosive innovation, meaning growth will decline.\nAt the current share price, investors are “locking in” a targeted return of 9% over the next 10 years based on some optimistic assumptions.\n\nGrowth of 19.3% for the first 5 years followed by 12% growth for the second five years.\nAn expected dividend growth rate of 17.5%\nApple reverts to their historic P/E of 21.\n\nAll of that together means Apple’s share price in 10 years will be $293.47 and the dividend will be at $4.43 a share giving existing shareholders a yield of 1.5% which is much closer to their current 5-year average yield.\nApple’s dividend payout ratio is currently 15.86%. Other companies in the IT sector like Texas Instruments (TXN), and Intuit (INTU) have a payout ratio of 51% and 25% respectively which shows Apple’s dividends will be much higher in the coming years. With a projected EPS of $14 in 2031 a 51% payout would mean a dividend of $7/sh.\nRisk and Opportunity, The Dividend increase\nBased on the 5 year average dividend yield and the current rate of dividend increases, it is likely the dividend will be increased to $1.03-$1.14. In order for Apple to maintain its historic yield at the projected future dividend, Apple shares would have to trade around $80. it is possible that Apple pays up and raises their dividend to $1.89. Apple spent $14 billion on their dividend in 2020 and raising it to $1.89 will increase the price tag to $31 billion. This would increase their payout ratio to 34% which is a typical payout ratio for cash cow companies.\nThe expected dividend I project is based on the percentage of operating cash flow the dividend takes up. Over the last 3 years, it has ranged from 15% to 18%. I used an estimated $100.15 billion for operating cash flows and at 19% you get the $1.14 dividend.\nSource: Seeking AlphaCash Flow Statement\nLastly it is possible that a dividend yield of less than 1% becomes the norm for Apple. If the current 2021 yield average of 0.63% becomes the new normal, Apple’s share price should rise to $163.49 - $180.95 based on my projected dividend increase.\nConclusion\nSell Apple, take your profits now. The super cycle will end. Come back later and buy Apple at a discount when the dividend yield is higher.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
