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2021-05-17
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19:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"四大理由支撑，美股或许真的没有泡沫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198822694","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"根据著名的“巴菲特指标”，美股当下的估值已经达到了历史最高点，泡沫的气息已经非常浓烈了，可是市场却依然在持续上涨，丝毫不见泡沫破灭的样子，那么，投资者到底该何去何从？\n\n腾讯证券讯 根据著名的“巴菲特","content":"<blockquote>\n <i>根据著名的“巴菲特指标”，美股当下的估值已经达到了历史最高点，泡沫的气息已经非常浓烈了，可是市场却依然在持续上涨，丝毫不见泡沫破灭的样子，那么，投资者到底该何去何从？</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>证券讯 根据著名的“巴菲特指标”，美股当下的估值已经达到了历史最高点，泡沫的气息已经非常浓烈了，可是市场却依然在持续上涨，丝毫不见泡沫破灭的样子，那么，投资者到底该何去何从？</p>\n<p>所谓巴菲特指标，简而言之就是将威尔夏5000指数（美国已有的最广泛大盘指标）的总市值与国内生产总值进行比较。历史数据显示，股市对GDP比率的长期水平是74%，而现在，这一数字却超过了160%，创下历史最高纪录。关于估值，还有所谓“托宾的Q比率”，由获得诺贝尔经济学奖的大家托宾（James Tobin）提出，即将企业股价与重置成本相比，这一指标12月底时就来到了2.33，同样是史上新高。</p>\n<p><b>旧指标遇到新现实</b></p>\n<p>不过，也有许多市场观察家强调，将这些估值指标的历史平均数字拿来和今日的水平进行对比，本身就是驴唇不对马嘴。退休经济学教授米诺特（Guy Mineault）解释说，这些美股牛派的根据之一就在于，美股市场上的股票总数量其实是呈现持续下滑趋势的，比如1996年时，市场上有股票总计8090只，而到了2019年底，已经减少到了4744只。“假设1996年和现在，投入到美股市场上的资金总量是一致的，但是股票的总数却减少了接近一半，那么依然存在的股票，其价格大致翻一番，其实也是完全说得过去的。”</p>\n<p>还有一些观察家指出，现在许多国家的政府都在强迫企业为自己的员工建立退休基金，而这就意味着每年都会有数量可观的资金持续流入股市，而如前所述，股票的数量还在减少，这就使得其价格更是唯有上涨一个可能的方向。米诺特表示：“许多经济学家甚至认为，股市实际上是被低估了，而非相反。”</p>\n<p><b>疫情的影响</b></p>\n<p>Whitemont Financial Services 总裁萨基里斯（Peter Tsakiris）指出：“我们现在根本不可能根据企业2021年的盈利预期去评估其股票价格，因为疫情改变了一切，2021年的数字已经不可能正常了。因此，投资者其实已经将视线转向了2022年，这将是一个持续增长的全年。换言之，投资者已经将疫情时期划入了括号，不再予以考虑，而是等待着未来的利润。”</p>\n<p>萨基里斯表示，如果大家预计标普500指数2022年的每股盈利为170美元，则相应的市盈率其实也不过是22.3。“这样的一个读数虽然是超过了大约16的历史平均水平，但是这也要看具体情况，比如历史上的大多数时候，利率可都要比现在高得多。”</p>\n<p>事实上，高估值的支持者赋予其合理性的另外一个重要理由正是利率。ddenda Capital副总裁、高级经济学奖德斯诺佛斯（Yanick Desnoyers）指出：“现在，债券收益率的预期是如此之低，而这自然就会导致股票估值高企。”</p>\n<p>魁北克蒙特利尔大学金融学教授瓜伊（Richard Guay）表示：“股票或许称得上昂贵，但是债券高估才更加严重。”他解释道：“如果你现在购买三十年期政府债券，就等于将自己的未来三十年锁定在很低的回报当中。相反，如果你选择股票，除了价格增值的可能性之外，你还可以每年获得3%到4%的股息。正因为如此，许多以前都以债券投资为主的机构投资者，现在都纷纷转向了股票。”</p>\n<p><b>需求旺盛</b></p>\n<p>德斯诺佛斯指出，此外还有两个因素在帮助美股维持着高估值。第一个因素是美国企业的利润，去年第三季度结束时，利润竟然要比疫情爆发前还高，让许多人都大吃一惊。疫情爆发前的美国企业总利润是1.82万亿美元，而疫情爆发后居然来到了2.32万亿美元。</p>\n<p>与此同时，市场还在很大程度上相信，一旦疫情宣告结束，将有一波压抑已久的消费需求爆发出来，而这自然也是企业利润，乃至股价的利好。疫情期间，美国储蓄率上升的经济数据也可以算作是为这种观点做出了一定的背书。</p>\n<p><b>充足的资金</b></p>\n<p>那么，美股现在到底算不算是在泡沫当中呢？其实很多专家现在也多少感到困惑。“我认为股价过于昂贵了。”瓜伊表示，“可是，至少到现在，我还不敢说泡沫已经形成。”萨基里斯则认为，一些特定股票如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，现在确实已经出现了泡沫，但是就美股大盘整体而言，目前还谈不到泡沫。“我对于股市的持续上涨，目前依然持乐观的态度，尽管我们也预计会有一些小规模的回挫发生。这里至少有一点可以肯定，那就是市场上到处都是流动性，因此这些回挫正常情况下都会被投资者看作是买入的机会。”</p>\n<p>各国央行超低利率和量化宽松政策注入的海量流动性，其实是个非常关键的元素，其影响将长期存在。“这些印刷出来的钞票无处不在，这就意味着，我们未来迟早会迎头撞上通货膨胀，而到了那时，利率就将被迫上调，达到4%或者5%。这无论对股票还是债券的行情都会造成损害，只不过，这一幕短期之内还不会成为现实。”</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>四大理由支撑，美股或许真的没有泡沫</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n四大理由支撑，美股或许真的没有泡沫\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-18 19:54 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TxgBcyYj3GNceu0MJNzgCw><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>根据著名的“巴菲特指标”，美股当下的估值已经达到了历史最高点，泡沫的气息已经非常浓烈了，可是市场却依然在持续上涨，丝毫不见泡沫破灭的样子，那么，投资者到底该何去何从？\n\n腾讯证券讯 根据著名的“巴菲特指标”，美股当下的估值已经达到了历史最高点，泡沫的气息已经非常浓烈了，可是市场却依然在持续上涨，丝毫不见泡沫破灭的样子，那么，投资者到底该何去何从？\n所谓巴菲特指标，简而言之就是将威尔夏5000指数（...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TxgBcyYj3GNceu0MJNzgCw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TxgBcyYj3GNceu0MJNzgCw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198822694","content_text":"根据著名的“巴菲特指标”，美股当下的估值已经达到了历史最高点，泡沫的气息已经非常浓烈了，可是市场却依然在持续上涨，丝毫不见泡沫破灭的样子，那么，投资者到底该何去何从？\n\n腾讯证券讯 根据著名的“巴菲特指标”，美股当下的估值已经达到了历史最高点，泡沫的气息已经非常浓烈了，可是市场却依然在持续上涨，丝毫不见泡沫破灭的样子，那么，投资者到底该何去何从？\n所谓巴菲特指标，简而言之就是将威尔夏5000指数（美国已有的最广泛大盘指标）的总市值与国内生产总值进行比较。历史数据显示，股市对GDP比率的长期水平是74%，而现在，这一数字却超过了160%，创下历史最高纪录。关于估值，还有所谓“托宾的Q比率”，由获得诺贝尔经济学奖的大家托宾（James Tobin）提出，即将企业股价与重置成本相比，这一指标12月底时就来到了2.33，同样是史上新高。\n旧指标遇到新现实\n不过，也有许多市场观察家强调，将这些估值指标的历史平均数字拿来和今日的水平进行对比，本身就是驴唇不对马嘴。退休经济学教授米诺特（Guy Mineault）解释说，这些美股牛派的根据之一就在于，美股市场上的股票总数量其实是呈现持续下滑趋势的，比如1996年时，市场上有股票总计8090只，而到了2019年底，已经减少到了4744只。“假设1996年和现在，投入到美股市场上的资金总量是一致的，但是股票的总数却减少了接近一半，那么依然存在的股票，其价格大致翻一番，其实也是完全说得过去的。”\n还有一些观察家指出，现在许多国家的政府都在强迫企业为自己的员工建立退休基金，而这就意味着每年都会有数量可观的资金持续流入股市，而如前所述，股票的数量还在减少，这就使得其价格更是唯有上涨一个可能的方向。米诺特表示：“许多经济学家甚至认为，股市实际上是被低估了，而非相反。”\n疫情的影响\nWhitemont Financial Services 总裁萨基里斯（Peter Tsakiris）指出：“我们现在根本不可能根据企业2021年的盈利预期去评估其股票价格，因为疫情改变了一切，2021年的数字已经不可能正常了。因此，投资者其实已经将视线转向了2022年，这将是一个持续增长的全年。换言之，投资者已经将疫情时期划入了括号，不再予以考虑，而是等待着未来的利润。”\n萨基里斯表示，如果大家预计标普500指数2022年的每股盈利为170美元，则相应的市盈率其实也不过是22.3。“这样的一个读数虽然是超过了大约16的历史平均水平，但是这也要看具体情况，比如历史上的大多数时候，利率可都要比现在高得多。”\n事实上，高估值的支持者赋予其合理性的另外一个重要理由正是利率。ddenda Capital副总裁、高级经济学奖德斯诺佛斯（Yanick Desnoyers）指出：“现在，债券收益率的预期是如此之低，而这自然就会导致股票估值高企。”\n魁北克蒙特利尔大学金融学教授瓜伊（Richard Guay）表示：“股票或许称得上昂贵，但是债券高估才更加严重。”他解释道：“如果你现在购买三十年期政府债券，就等于将自己的未来三十年锁定在很低的回报当中。相反，如果你选择股票，除了价格增值的可能性之外，你还可以每年获得3%到4%的股息。正因为如此，许多以前都以债券投资为主的机构投资者，现在都纷纷转向了股票。”\n需求旺盛\n德斯诺佛斯指出，此外还有两个因素在帮助美股维持着高估值。第一个因素是美国企业的利润，去年第三季度结束时，利润竟然要比疫情爆发前还高，让许多人都大吃一惊。疫情爆发前的美国企业总利润是1.82万亿美元，而疫情爆发后居然来到了2.32万亿美元。\n与此同时，市场还在很大程度上相信，一旦疫情宣告结束，将有一波压抑已久的消费需求爆发出来，而这自然也是企业利润，乃至股价的利好。疫情期间，美国储蓄率上升的经济数据也可以算作是为这种观点做出了一定的背书。\n充足的资金\n那么，美股现在到底算不算是在泡沫当中呢？其实很多专家现在也多少感到困惑。“我认为股价过于昂贵了。”瓜伊表示，“可是，至少到现在，我还不敢说泡沫已经形成。”萨基里斯则认为，一些特定股票如Zoom和特斯拉，现在确实已经出现了泡沫，但是就美股大盘整体而言，目前还谈不到泡沫。“我对于股市的持续上涨，目前依然持乐观的态度，尽管我们也预计会有一些小规模的回挫发生。这里至少有一点可以肯定，那就是市场上到处都是流动性，因此这些回挫正常情况下都会被投资者看作是买入的机会。”\n各国央行超低利率和量化宽松政策注入的海量流动性，其实是个非常关键的元素，其影响将长期存在。“这些印刷出来的钞票无处不在，这就意味着，我们未来迟早会迎头撞上通货膨胀，而到了那时，利率就将被迫上调，达到4%或者5%。这无论对股票还是债券的行情都会造成损害，只不过，这一幕短期之内还不会成为现实。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195199987,"gmtCreate":1621260680549,"gmtModify":1704354819217,"author":{"id":"3575537075359506","authorId":"3575537075359506","name":"A_LIUYINGJIA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853af30823e76e3e215b467c7f375993","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oops","listText":"Oops","text":"Oops","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/195199987","repostId":"1193073364","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106411409,"gmtCreate":1620138763001,"gmtModify":1704339209000,"author":{"id":"3575537075359506","authorId":"3575537075359506","name":"A_LIUYINGJIA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853af30823e76e3e215b467c7f375993","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa","listText":"Wa","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/106411409","repostId":"1131932104","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103516491,"gmtCreate":1619793087413,"gmtModify":1704272483334,"author":{"id":"3575537075359506","authorId":"3575537075359506","name":"A_LIUYINGJIA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853af30823e76e3e215b467c7f375993","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103516491","repostId":"1144793561","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
