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2021-05-13

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Muddy Waters Short Lemonade: There are serious security vulnerabilities and should go offline immediately

2021-05-13

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May or the turning point of the whole market: the "natural enemy" of the Federal Reserve is here!

2021-05-13

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Ali dropped nearly 5% intraday, dropping shares to lowest since July last year

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Reminder: A shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual

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The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'

2021-04-26

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U.S. Dallas Fed business activity index hits new high since 2006 in April

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Affected by this news, Lemonade's share price once fell by more than 7% before the market, and then gradually picked up. As of press time at the beginning of the session, Lemonade rose 0.68% to $60.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98446c1f3c305e0b0e624ee8263a4356\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is understood that Muddy Waters is not The first short seller to target Lemonade, with The Friendly Bear also shorting The company late last year.</p><p>A number of investment banks downgraded their ratings on internet insurer Lemonade, affected by a larger-than-market loss per share in the first quarter. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Andrew Kligerman pointed to more-than-expected damage from the Texas storm as a major reason for the stock's losses. The earnings report showed that the 121% gross loss margin in the first quarter included 50% catastrophe impact. While the adjusted EBITDA loss of $41 million was in line with the bank's expectations,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Still give Lemonade an \"underperform\" rating.</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Muddy Waters Short Lemonade: There are serious security vulnerabilities and should go offline immediately</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMuddy Waters Short Lemonade: There are serious security vulnerabilities and should go offline immediately\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 21:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, May 13, Muddy Waters claimed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">Lemonade</a>There is a serious security breach in the website that could expose customer personally identifiable information (PII), requiring the company to take the website offline immediately to fix the breach. Affected by this news, Lemonade's share price once fell by more than 7% before the market, and then gradually picked up. As of press time at the beginning of the session, Lemonade rose 0.68% to $60.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98446c1f3c305e0b0e624ee8263a4356\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is understood that Muddy Waters is not The first short seller to target Lemonade, with The Friendly Bear also shorting The company late last year.</p><p>A number of investment banks downgraded their ratings on internet insurer Lemonade, affected by a larger-than-market loss per share in the first quarter. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Andrew Kligerman pointed to more-than-expected damage from the Texas storm as a major reason for the stock's losses. The earnings report showed that the 121% gross loss margin in the first quarter included 50% catastrophe impact. While the adjusted EBITDA loss of $41 million was in line with the bank's expectations,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Still give Lemonade an \"underperform\" rating.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474595.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21a485199ba4d98518695cb468836114","relate_stocks":{"LMND":"Lemonade, Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474595.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135621359","content_text":"5月13日(周四)，浑水公司(Muddy  Waters)声称，Lemonade网站存在严重安全漏洞，可能会暴露客户个人身份信息(PII)，要求公司立即让网站下线，修复漏洞。受此消息影响，Lemonade盘前股价一度跌逾7%，后逐步回暖，盘初截至发稿，Lemonade涨0.68%，报60.57美元。据了解，浑水并不是第一家瞄准Lemonade的做空者，去年年底，The Friendly Bear也做空该公司。受第一季度每股亏损大于市场预期的影响，多家投行降低了对互联网保险公司Lemonade的评级。其中瑞银分析师Andrew  Kligerman指出，德州风暴造成的超预期的损失是该股亏损的主要原因。财报显示，第一季度121%的毛损率中包含50%的巨灾影响。虽然调整后的EBITDA亏损4100万美元符合该行预期，但瑞银还是给予Lemonade“跑输大市”评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LMND":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198952670,"gmtCreate":1620920597790,"gmtModify":1704350564738,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575590605777204","idStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198952670","repostId":"1129245857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129245857","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1620913695,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129245857?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 21:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"May or the turning point of the whole market: the \"natural enemy\" of the Federal Reserve is here!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129245857","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"通胀爆了，就业萎靡……这叫啥来着？","content":"<p>Author: Le Ming</p><p><b>Primer</b></p><p>At the recent \"pigeon release\" meeting of the Federal Reserve, Powell was asked two embarrassing questions: Now inflation expectations seem to be rising very fiercely. What if inflation reaches the standard before employment? Why are you so confident that inflation won't get out of control this time? Not like in the 1970s?</p><p>For both questions, Powell was not too happy because of the awkward pain points asked.</p><p>Now the pain point begins to appear in the data: at 8: 30 pm on Wednesday, May 12th, the U.S. Department of Labor announced the U.S. CPI in April. The data shows that not only the overall CPI but also the core CPI of the United States, the growth rate in April hit an astonishing record. Among them, the overall CPI of the United States in April increased by 4.2% year-on-year (the market expectation was 3.6%), and the growth rate reached a new high since September 2008; In April, the core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, the largest increase since January 1996.</p><p>The inflation of 5% is not tolerable for the long-term inflation of 2% on average, unless it comes down next month, which means that it is a \"false alarm\", but the possibility of a sharp decline next month seems unlikely at present.</p><p>The market has also conveyed this expectation through prices: the probability of raising interest rates in 2022 has reached 100% after the data was released. This, in turn, means that the QE reduction time, which had just been delayed because the employment data was significantly lower than expected, has been advanced again.</p><p>This feeling of being pulled left and right and not knowing what to do is a bit familiar, and it is also the scene that the Federal Reserve fears most: inflation has exploded, employment is sluggish... What is this called?</p><p><b>Markets are starting to disbelieve the Fed's rhetoric</b></p><p>Long before today's data, markets had already expressed skepticism about the Fed's rhetoric of keeping inflation at 2% over the long term.</p><p>The April consumer survey (the equivalent of the Federal Reserve's \"poll\") released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed: As the economy recovers from the pandemic-induced crisis, the median expectation of U.S. consumers' inflation in the coming year is 3.4%, the highest level since September 2013. Expectations for inflation over the next three years remain unchanged at 3.1%.</p><p>The reason why the Federal Reserve cares so much about inflation \"polls\" is that the most terrible thing about inflation is that it spirals upward after forming a \"public consensus\".</p><p>The expectation of inflation can be roughly divided into three levels: 1. The inflation expectation implied by financial products in the market; 2. The inflation forecast predicted by the so-called \"consensus\" of economists (these two layers are basically consistent with the forecast of the Federal Reserve) 3. The real inflation expectation of the people.</p><p>The third level determines the characteristics of self-actualization of inflation. If after a period of relatively high inflation (most likely above 2%), American workers think that the cost of living has increased and they need to raise wages; If manufacturers think that they need to raise prices to cope with higher wages and various costs, it is not impossible for inflation to eventually rush from 2% + to 5%, or even 10% + in the 1970s.</p><p>In fact, the last time the U.S. CPI was as high as 4.2%, the Fed's interest rate was as high as 20%-it was the stagflation period of the 70s.</p><p><b>Stagflation!?</b></p><p>Stagflation is the Fed's most feared \"natural enemy\"-when stagflation occurs, the Fed's policy will lose its initiative and enter a completely passive state. Because in this case, the Fed's tightening policy can control inflation, but the economy can't stand it; However, if the policy is relaxed to save the economy, inflation will go to heaven-the left and right are not people, and there is no solution; You can only resist it hard and let time digest it slowly, like in the 70s.</p><p>Although the one-month data theoretically only exacerbated market worries, it did not generate panic-after all, the United States was indeed deflationary last April, and what the Fed called the base effect did exist.</p><p>Figure: The U.S. deflated sharply in April last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c80e9218155a4a7d34e31254600a07\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the May data can fall back to about 3%, which is acceptable for the market, then inflation expectations are still \"saved\"; However, if it still remains around 4% next month, the Federal Reserve may need to \"hawk\" quickly and control inflation expectations.</p><p>In addition, in terms of employment, although the non-agricultural data in April is very unsatisfactory (17.5199, -0.26, -1.46%), it is expected to change significantly in May. For details, see: Biden's \"Awakening\"! Can U.S. jobs break a million in May?.</p><p><b>What does it mean</b></p><p>Although this data is shocking, it is still \"one-time\"-it is very normal for the market probability to be adjusted according to the latest situation, and 100% rate hike probability does not mean that it will necessarily happen, because there is still a long time until the end of 2022, and there are still many data in the middle that will change the probability again.</p><p>Still, it would turn the May data into a \"tiebreaker\".</p><p>First of all, in May last year, the U.S. economy got rid of deflation, and its inflation reading is not much different from the rest of 2020. If inflation reaches about 4% again in May, it can no longer be said to be a base problem-at this time, the Federal Reserve needs to \"express its expression\", otherwise inflation is likely to enter the \"self-realization\" channel.</p><p>In addition, whether employment is good or bad in May, it is \"indifferent\": good indicates greater inflationary pressure; A bad indication that stagflation is getting closer-whatever is bad news for the market. That's why the Fed is now repeatedly emphasizing that employment now needs to be pegged to the labor participation rate, because not only is the unemployment rate data \"failing\", but even the non-farm data is not working well now.</p><p>May or the turning point for the whole market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>May or the turning point of the whole market: the \"natural enemy\" of the Federal Reserve is here!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMay or the turning point of the whole market: the \"natural enemy\" of the Federal Reserve is here!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-13 21:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Le Ming</p><p><b>Primer</b></p><p>At the recent \"pigeon release\" meeting of the Federal Reserve, Powell was asked two embarrassing questions: Now inflation expectations seem to be rising very fiercely. What if inflation reaches the standard before employment? Why are you so confident that inflation won't get out of control this time? Not like in the 1970s?</p><p>For both questions, Powell was not too happy because of the awkward pain points asked.</p><p>Now the pain point begins to appear in the data: at 8: 30 pm on Wednesday, May 12th, the U.S. Department of Labor announced the U.S. CPI in April. The data shows that not only the overall CPI but also the core CPI of the United States, the growth rate in April hit an astonishing record. Among them, the overall CPI of the United States in April increased by 4.2% year-on-year (the market expectation was 3.6%), and the growth rate reached a new high since September 2008; In April, the core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, the largest increase since January 1996.</p><p>The inflation of 5% is not tolerable for the long-term inflation of 2% on average, unless it comes down next month, which means that it is a \"false alarm\", but the possibility of a sharp decline next month seems unlikely at present.</p><p>The market has also conveyed this expectation through prices: the probability of raising interest rates in 2022 has reached 100% after the data was released. This, in turn, means that the QE reduction time, which had just been delayed because the employment data was significantly lower than expected, has been advanced again.</p><p>This feeling of being pulled left and right and not knowing what to do is a bit familiar, and it is also the scene that the Federal Reserve fears most: inflation has exploded, employment is sluggish... What is this called?</p><p><b>Markets are starting to disbelieve the Fed's rhetoric</b></p><p>Long before today's data, markets had already expressed skepticism about the Fed's rhetoric of keeping inflation at 2% over the long term.</p><p>The April consumer survey (the equivalent of the Federal Reserve's \"poll\") released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed: As the economy recovers from the pandemic-induced crisis, the median expectation of U.S. consumers' inflation in the coming year is 3.4%, the highest level since September 2013. Expectations for inflation over the next three years remain unchanged at 3.1%.</p><p>The reason why the Federal Reserve cares so much about inflation \"polls\" is that the most terrible thing about inflation is that it spirals upward after forming a \"public consensus\".</p><p>The expectation of inflation can be roughly divided into three levels: 1. The inflation expectation implied by financial products in the market; 2. The inflation forecast predicted by the so-called \"consensus\" of economists (these two layers are basically consistent with the forecast of the Federal Reserve) 3. The real inflation expectation of the people.</p><p>The third level determines the characteristics of self-actualization of inflation. If after a period of relatively high inflation (most likely above 2%), American workers think that the cost of living has increased and they need to raise wages; If manufacturers think that they need to raise prices to cope with higher wages and various costs, it is not impossible for inflation to eventually rush from 2% + to 5%, or even 10% + in the 1970s.</p><p>In fact, the last time the U.S. CPI was as high as 4.2%, the Fed's interest rate was as high as 20%-it was the stagflation period of the 70s.</p><p><b>Stagflation!?</b></p><p>Stagflation is the Fed's most feared \"natural enemy\"-when stagflation occurs, the Fed's policy will lose its initiative and enter a completely passive state. Because in this case, the Fed's tightening policy can control inflation, but the economy can't stand it; However, if the policy is relaxed to save the economy, inflation will go to heaven-the left and right are not people, and there is no solution; You can only resist it hard and let time digest it slowly, like in the 70s.</p><p>Although the one-month data theoretically only exacerbated market worries, it did not generate panic-after all, the United States was indeed deflationary last April, and what the Fed called the base effect did exist.</p><p>Figure: The U.S. deflated sharply in April last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c80e9218155a4a7d34e31254600a07\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the May data can fall back to about 3%, which is acceptable for the market, then inflation expectations are still \"saved\"; However, if it still remains around 4% next month, the Federal Reserve may need to \"hawk\" quickly and control inflation expectations.</p><p>In addition, in terms of employment, although the non-agricultural data in April is very unsatisfactory (17.5199, -0.26, -1.46%), it is expected to change significantly in May. For details, see: Biden's \"Awakening\"! Can U.S. jobs break a million in May?.</p><p><b>What does it mean</b></p><p>Although this data is shocking, it is still \"one-time\"-it is very normal for the market probability to be adjusted according to the latest situation, and 100% rate hike probability does not mean that it will necessarily happen, because there is still a long time until the end of 2022, and there are still many data in the middle that will change the probability again.</p><p>Still, it would turn the May data into a \"tiebreaker\".</p><p>First of all, in May last year, the U.S. economy got rid of deflation, and its inflation reading is not much different from the rest of 2020. If inflation reaches about 4% again in May, it can no longer be said to be a base problem-at this time, the Federal Reserve needs to \"express its expression\", otherwise inflation is likely to enter the \"self-realization\" channel.</p><p>In addition, whether employment is good or bad in May, it is \"indifferent\": good indicates greater inflationary pressure; A bad indication that stagflation is getting closer-whatever is bad news for the market. That's why the Fed is now repeatedly emphasizing that employment now needs to be pegged to the labor participation rate, because not only is the unemployment rate data \"failing\", but even the non-farm data is not working well now.</p><p>May or the turning point for the whole market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129245857","content_text":"作者：乐鸣引子在刚过去不久的美联储“放鸽子”会上，鲍威尔被问到两个尴尬的问题：现在通胀预期看起来上得很猛，万一通胀比就业先达标了，你咋办？你咋那么有信心这次通胀不会失控？不会像上世纪70年代一样？对于这两个问题，鲍威尔都不太高兴，因为问到了尴尬的痛点。如今痛点开始在数据上显现：5月12日周三晚8点半，美国劳工部公布了美国4月CPI。数据显示，不光是美国的整体CPI还是核心CPI，4月份增速都创出惊人记录。其中，美国4月整体CPI同比大增4.2%（市场预期3.6%），增速创2008年9月以来新高；4月核心CPI同比大增3%，创1996年1月以来最大增长。奔5%的通胀，可不是长期通胀平均2%可以忍受的，除非下个月就下来，表示这是“虚惊一场”，但是下个月大幅下滑的可能性目前看来不大。市场通过价格也传达了这一预期：2022年升息的可能性，在数据公布后已经高达100%。这反过来意味着，刚刚因为就业数据大幅不及预期而推迟的缩减QE时间，又再次被提前。这种被左右拉扯不知如何是好的感觉有点似曾相识，也是美联储最害怕的情景：通胀爆了，就业萎靡……这叫啥来着？市场开始不信美联储的说辞了早在今天数据公布之前，市场已经对美联储所谓长期通胀保持2%的说辞表示出了怀疑态度。纽约联邦储备银行公布的4月消费者调查（相当于美联储的“民调”）显示：随着经济从疫情引发的危机中复苏，美国消费者未来一年通胀的预期中值为3.4%，创2013年9月以来最高水平。对未来三年通胀的预期维持在3.1%不变。之所以美联储这么在乎通胀“民调”，是因为通胀最可怕的一点就是形成“民众共识”后螺旋上升。对于通胀的预期，可以粗略分成三个层次：1． 市场上金融产品所隐含的通胀预期；2．所谓经济学家们“共识”预测的通胀预（这两个层基本上跟美联储的预测是一致的）3． 民众的真实通胀预期。第三个层次决定了通胀自我实现的特点。如果经过了一段时间相对高的通胀（很可能高于2%），让美国工人认为生活成本提高了，需要加工资；让厂商认为需要提价才能应对更高的工资和各种成本，那通胀最终从2%+冲上5%，甚至是70年代的10%+都不是没有可能的。实际上，上一次美国CPI高达4.2%的时候，美联储的利率高达20%——正是70年代的滞胀时期。滞胀！？滞胀是美联储最害怕的“天敌”——在滞胀出现时，美联储政策就会失去主动权，进入完全被动状态。因为在这种情况下，美联储收紧政策，虽然可以控制通胀，但是经济受不了；但是如果放松政策救经济，通胀就上天了——左右不是人，无解；只能硬抗，让时间来慢慢消化，像70年代一样。虽然一个月的数据在理论上只是加剧了市场担心，不至于产生恐慌——毕竟去年4月份的美国确实是通缩状态，美联储所说的基数效应确实存在。图：去年4月美国通缩得厉害如果，五月数据可以回落到让市场可以接受的3%左右，那通胀预期还“有得救”；但如果下个月还维持4%左右，那美联储很可能需要赶紧“放鹰”，控制一下通胀预期。另外，就业方面虽然4月非农数据非常不理想(17.5199,-0.26,-1.46%)，但是有望在5月出现大幅改观，详见：拜登“觉醒”！5月美国就业可以破百万么？。意味着什么本次数据虽然令人震惊，但是仍属于“一次性”的性质——市场概率根据最新情况进行调整是非常正常的，100%加息概率也不代表一定发生，因为距离2022年底还有很长时间，中间还有很多数据会再次更改概率。尽管如此，这仍会让5月份数据变成一个“决胜点”。首先，去年5月份美国经济已经摆脱通缩，其通胀读数跟2020年剩下的月份差距不大，如果5月通胀再次高达4%左右，就不能再说是基数问题了——这时候美联储需要“表示表示”，否则通胀很有可能进入“自我实现”通道。另外，不管5月就业好还是不好，都已经“无所谓”了：好就表明通胀压力更大；不好说明滞胀越来越近了——怎么样对市场而言都是坏消息。这就是为什么美联储现在开始反复强调，就业现在需要盯住劳动参与率，因为不仅失业率数据“失灵了”，就连非农数据现在都不太好使了。5月或是整个市场的转折点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198956083,"gmtCreate":1620920541042,"gmtModify":1704350562955,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575590605777204","idStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198956083","repostId":"1167274875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167274875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620916842,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167274875?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 22:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Google Announces Contract Win to Provide Computing and Networking Resources to SpaceX","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167274875","media":"智通财经","summary":"显然，这笔交易代表着谷歌在云计算市场的一次胜利。","content":"<p>On Thursday, it was reported,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>It announced today that its cloud division has won a contract to provide computing and networking resources to Elon Musk's space exploration technology company SpaceX to help SpaceX provide Internet services through its Starlink satellites.</p><p>According to the cooperation agreement, SpaceX will install ground stations in Google data centers to connect SpaceX's \"Starlink\" satellites, and plans to provide fast Internet services for enterprises in the second half of this year. Obviously, the deal represents a win for Google in the cloud computing market. At present, the cloud computing market is growing rapidly, and Google is trying to move from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Grab the share in your hands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debeb3f13e3f9c15841bd1543c97f5d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google Announces Contract Win to Provide Computing and Networking Resources to SpaceX</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle Announces Contract Win to Provide Computing and Networking Resources to SpaceX\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 22:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, it was reported,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>It announced today that its cloud division has won a contract to provide computing and networking resources to Elon Musk's space exploration technology company SpaceX to help SpaceX provide Internet services through its Starlink satellites.</p><p>According to the cooperation agreement, SpaceX will install ground stations in Google data centers to connect SpaceX's \"Starlink\" satellites, and plans to provide fast Internet services for enterprises in the second half of this year. Obviously, the deal represents a win for Google in the cloud computing market. At present, the cloud computing market is growing rapidly, and Google is trying to move from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Grab the share in your hands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debeb3f13e3f9c15841bd1543c97f5d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474654.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab2a423ce1c2af9697237b229cede72","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474654.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1167274875","content_text":"周四，据报道，谷歌今日宣布，其云部门已赢得一份合同，向埃隆·马斯克旗下太空探索技术公司SpaceX提供计算和网络资源，以帮助SpaceX通过其“星链”（Starlink）卫星提供互联网服务。根据合作协议，SpaceX将在谷歌数据中心安装地面站，连接SpaceX的“星链”卫星，计划在今年下半年为企业提供快速互联网服务。显然，这笔交易代表着谷歌在云计算市场的一次胜利。当前，云计算市场发展迅速，而谷歌正努力从亚马逊和微软手中抢夺份额。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198958520,"gmtCreate":1620920496760,"gmtModify":1704350562311,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575590605777204","idStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"very good","listText":"very good","text":"very good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198958520","repostId":"1124198478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124198478","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620917329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124198478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 22:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ali dropped nearly 5% intraday, dropping shares to lowest since July last year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124198478","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损","content":"<p>On Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell nearly 5% in the session, sending shares as low as $209.50, down more than 30% from the peak set in October last year, and now trading at the lowest price since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news, Alibaba today announced its fourth quarter and full-year financial report of fiscal year 2021. The company's operating loss in the fourth quarter was 7.663 billion, the first quarterly loss since Ali's listing. The company said the losses were mainly affected by fines from antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-off impact, the Company's operating profit was RMB10.565 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Alibaba Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year Report for Fiscal Year 2021</b></a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ali dropped nearly 5% intraday, dropping shares to lowest since July last year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAli dropped nearly 5% intraday, dropping shares to lowest since July last year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-13 22:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell nearly 5% in the session, sending shares as low as $209.50, down more than 30% from the peak set in October last year, and now trading at the lowest price since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news, Alibaba today announced its fourth quarter and full-year financial report of fiscal year 2021. The company's operating loss in the fourth quarter was 7.663 billion, the first quarterly loss since Ali's listing. The company said the losses were mainly affected by fines from antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-off impact, the Company's operating profit was RMB10.565 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Alibaba Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year Report for Fiscal Year 2021</b></a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124198478","content_text":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损76.63亿，为阿里上市以来的首次季度亏损。公司称亏损主要受反垄断调查的罚款影响。剔除该一次性影响，公司的经营利润为人民币105.65亿元，同比增长48%。点击查看：阿里巴巴集团2021财年四季度及全年业绩报告","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109509871,"gmtCreate":1619703336993,"gmtModify":1704728287204,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575590605777204","idStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109509871","repostId":"1170908014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170908014","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618906754,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170908014?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-20 16:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170908014","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，","content":"<p>The May Day holiday is coming soon. It is worth mentioning that this year's May Day Labor Day will continue to take five consecutive days off. Regarding the arrangement of the May Day stock market, it is also the focus of investors' attention. Let's take a look at how many days the May Day stock market will be closed in 2021?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>UK shares:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is the traditional British holiday Bank holiday, and the British stock market is closed for one day</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Australian Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Thursday, April 29 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p>I wish you the most beautiful workers a happy May Day, peace and joy!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-20 16:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The May Day holiday is coming soon. It is worth mentioning that this year's May Day Labor Day will continue to take five consecutive days off. Regarding the arrangement of the May Day stock market, it is also the focus of investors' attention. Let's take a look at how many days the May Day stock market will be closed in 2021?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>UK shares:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is the traditional British holiday Bank holiday, and the British stock market is closed for one day</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Australian Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Thursday, April 29 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p>I wish you the most beautiful workers a happy May Day, peace and joy!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170908014","content_text":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。港股：照常交易。美股：照常交易。英股：5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank holiday，英股休市一日新加坡市场：照常交易。澳大利亚市场：照常交易。沪股通、深股通：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。港股通：4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109275782,"gmtCreate":1619703250546,"gmtModify":1704728283456,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575590605777204","idStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109275782","repostId":"2131309849","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2131309849","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619676617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2131309849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 14:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131309849","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"事件：美国时间2021年4月28日，美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明，美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、 美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变","content":"<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the April FOMC meeting, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed.</i></p><p><b>1. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is \"unchanged\", which is in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>The February and April statements were more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\". We think this is related to the fact that the economic data in March was significantly better than in February<b>。 2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors.\" Our benchmark calculations show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%. 3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement considered the risk to the economic outlook \"considerable\", but this time it was only understated as the economic risk still exists. This is related to the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination effectiveness in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but it was slightly \"indecisive\", and the market did not buy it</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.<b>2) Inflation:</b>A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.<b>3) Cut QE:</b>When a reporter asked if the Fed was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, that's a fact.</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell's speech mentioned the stock market \"bubble\", the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively.</b>Among them, the Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury decreased from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the the US Dollar Index also decreased.</p><p><b>4. How do you treat the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, for example, has the US economy reached what Powell called the \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and where is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, Powell's current statement remains slightly vague. We believe that at this stage,<b>The Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism,</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" is given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators is given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may start discussing cutting QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We estimate that it may take until around July to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population in the United States. 2) Under the base effect, it is expected that the United States will witness the high point of inflation in April-May. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of monetary and fiscal in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term. If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, in the statement of the April FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy section \"remained unchanged\", which was in line with market expectations.</b>Compared with March, the monetary policy section in the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement \"remained unchanged\", that is, the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining the Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the rhythm of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, continuing to execute repo agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2 More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its representation of the U.S. economic outlook, and it was more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Figure 2):</p><p><b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support\", and emphasizes that the situation in the relatively vulnerable sector has also \"shown improvement\".</p><p><b>2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>In March, the statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors\". Considering that the Federal Reserve generally gets PCE data in advance, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in March, which will be announced on April 30th, is likely to have exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically stated that the public health crisis is putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment and inflation\", but this time it is described only generally as putting pressure on the \"economy\". We believe that this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to a high level. The \"economy\" here mainly refers to economic activities and employment. In addition, in the March statement, the risk to the economic outlook was \"considerable\", but this time the adjective was deleted, and it was only understated that the economic risk still exists.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report \"Thinking about the Next Step of the Federal Reserve\", we pointed out that although it is only one and a half months apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting are significantly different from those of the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is an obvious gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March.</b>Disturbed by extremely cold weather in February, the economic data of the United States was depressed again, while the economic data from March to April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm employment increased greatly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial unemployment claims dropped significantly since April (Chart 4), indicating that the road of economic recovery in the United States is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to appear in March, and the inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) in the United States have risen sharply in March (Chart 5 and Chart 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculation shows that the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%.</b>The inflation measure that the Fed is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index). According to the latest forecast of the Federal Reserve in March (the median year-on-year forecast of PCE for the whole year of 2021 is 2.4%), we estimate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 is 0.185%. Using this as the benchmark path of PCE inflation evolution, it can be predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to usher in a high point, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate, and the recent new price increase factors may further push up US inflation. For example, in March, the US CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the benchmark path, and the market is currently forecasting a 0.3% month-on-month PCE growth in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the U.S. is well under control (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to advance (Chart 9). Compared with March, the economic risk has indeed declined at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3 Powell's speech was slightly \"indecisive\" and the market failed to buy it</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but slightly \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Representation of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labour market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.</p><p><b>2) Statement of inflation:</b>It seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, unlikely to see inflation continue to rise; A temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet the criteria of rate hike. A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.</p><p><b>3) Reply to cut QE:</b>A reporter asked whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE). Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering the scale of bond purchases. Economic activity has just recently picked up, and it will take some time to meet the standard.</p><p><b>4) On financial stability and asset prices.</b>\"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, which is a fact. I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccination and reopening the economy.\"</p><p><b>5) About digital currency.</b>A reporter asked whether China, for example, is launching digital currency and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell replied that the purpose and impact of the implementation of digital currency by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are different, and it is necessary to be extra cautious. \"Being right is more important than being fast\".</p><p><b>After the Fed resolution and Powell's speech, the market \"didn't buy it.\"</b>After the Fed announced its resolution and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly; However, after Powell's speech mentioned the \"bubble\" of the stock market, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term, and finally closed down collectively, with the Dow falling by 0.48%, the S&P falling by 0.08% and the Nasdaq falling by 0.28%. After Powell's one-hour speech, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 1.64% to 1.62%; the US Dollar Index down to around 90.6; The price of gold futures rose, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose first and then fell, with small volatility.</p><p><b>4 What do you think of the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>Before the interest rate meeting in April, the market generally expected that the Fed would still \"stand still\", but hoped that the Fed would give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell calls an \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and what is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's speech this time is still slightly vague and slightly \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>At this stage, the Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" and no \"red line\" of inflation indicators are given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5 Fed May Start Discussions on QE Cuts at June or July Meetings</b></p><p>In the coming period, for the tracking of the Fed's policy trends, we suggest that two sets of data should be observed simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressure.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Fed's decision-making framework, the former is more leading and more helpful for forward-looking judgment. The St. Louis Fed's Bullard said on April 7 that discussions of tapering QE could be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We calculate,<b>It may take until around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population.</b></p><p>Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness the high of inflation in April-May. This also means that in June and July, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to discuss the higher inflation data. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term.<b>If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</b></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the April FOMC meeting, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed.</i></p><p><b>1. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is \"unchanged\", which is in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>The February and April statements were more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\". We think this is related to the fact that the economic data in March was significantly better than in February<b>。 2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors.\" Our benchmark calculations show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%. 3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement considered the risk to the economic outlook \"considerable\", but this time it was only understated as the economic risk still exists. This is related to the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination effectiveness in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but it was slightly \"indecisive\", and the market did not buy it</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.<b>2) Inflation:</b>A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.<b>3) Cut QE:</b>When a reporter asked if the Fed was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, that's a fact.</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell's speech mentioned the stock market \"bubble\", the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively.</b>Among them, the Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury decreased from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the the US Dollar Index also decreased.</p><p><b>4. How do you treat the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, for example, has the US economy reached what Powell called the \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and where is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, Powell's current statement remains slightly vague. We believe that at this stage,<b>The Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism,</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" is given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators is given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may start discussing cutting QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We estimate that it may take until around July to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population in the United States. 2) Under the base effect, it is expected that the United States will witness the high point of inflation in April-May. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of monetary and fiscal in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term. If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, in the statement of the April FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy section \"remained unchanged\", which was in line with market expectations.</b>Compared with March, the monetary policy section in the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement \"remained unchanged\", that is, the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining the Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the rhythm of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, continuing to execute repo agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2 More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its representation of the U.S. economic outlook, and it was more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Figure 2):</p><p><b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support\", and emphasizes that the situation in the relatively vulnerable sector has also \"shown improvement\".</p><p><b>2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>In March, the statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors\". Considering that the Federal Reserve generally gets PCE data in advance, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in March, which will be announced on April 30th, is likely to have exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically stated that the public health crisis is putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment and inflation\", but this time it is described only generally as putting pressure on the \"economy\". We believe that this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to a high level. The \"economy\" here mainly refers to economic activities and employment. In addition, in the March statement, the risk to the economic outlook was \"considerable\", but this time the adjective was deleted, and it was only understated that the economic risk still exists.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report \"Thinking about the Next Step of the Federal Reserve\", we pointed out that although it is only one and a half months apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting are significantly different from those of the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is an obvious gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March.</b>Disturbed by extremely cold weather in February, the economic data of the United States was depressed again, while the economic data from March to April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm employment increased greatly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial unemployment claims dropped significantly since April (Chart 4), indicating that the road of economic recovery in the United States is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to appear in March, and the inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) in the United States have risen sharply in March (Chart 5 and Chart 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculation shows that the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%.</b>The inflation measure that the Fed is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index). According to the latest forecast of the Federal Reserve in March (the median year-on-year forecast of PCE for the whole year of 2021 is 2.4%), we estimate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 is 0.185%. Using this as the benchmark path of PCE inflation evolution, it can be predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to usher in a high point, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate, and the recent new price increase factors may further push up US inflation. For example, in March, the US CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the benchmark path, and the market is currently forecasting a 0.3% month-on-month PCE growth in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the U.S. is well under control (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to advance (Chart 9). Compared with March, the economic risk has indeed declined at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3 Powell's speech was slightly \"indecisive\" and the market failed to buy it</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but slightly \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Representation of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labour market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.</p><p><b>2) Statement of inflation:</b>It seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, unlikely to see inflation continue to rise; A temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet the criteria of rate hike. A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.</p><p><b>3) Reply to cut QE:</b>A reporter asked whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE). Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering the scale of bond purchases. Economic activity has just recently picked up, and it will take some time to meet the standard.</p><p><b>4) On financial stability and asset prices.</b>\"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, which is a fact. I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccination and reopening the economy.\"</p><p><b>5) About digital currency.</b>A reporter asked whether China, for example, is launching digital currency and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell replied that the purpose and impact of the implementation of digital currency by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are different, and it is necessary to be extra cautious. \"Being right is more important than being fast\".</p><p><b>After the Fed resolution and Powell's speech, the market \"didn't buy it.\"</b>After the Fed announced its resolution and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly; However, after Powell's speech mentioned the \"bubble\" of the stock market, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term, and finally closed down collectively, with the Dow falling by 0.48%, the S&P falling by 0.08% and the Nasdaq falling by 0.28%. After Powell's one-hour speech, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 1.64% to 1.62%; the US Dollar Index down to around 90.6; The price of gold futures rose, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose first and then fell, with small volatility.</p><p><b>4 What do you think of the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>Before the interest rate meeting in April, the market generally expected that the Fed would still \"stand still\", but hoped that the Fed would give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell calls an \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and what is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's speech this time is still slightly vague and slightly \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>At this stage, the Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" and no \"red line\" of inflation indicators are given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5 Fed May Start Discussions on QE Cuts at June or July Meetings</b></p><p>In the coming period, for the tracking of the Fed's policy trends, we suggest that two sets of data should be observed simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressure.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Fed's decision-making framework, the former is more leading and more helpful for forward-looking judgment. The St. Louis Fed's Bullard said on April 7 that discussions of tapering QE could be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We calculate,<b>It may take until around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population.</b></p><p>Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness the high of inflation in April-May. This also means that in June and July, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to discuss the higher inflation data. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term.<b>If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463413.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 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我们的基准测算显示，由于基数效应，美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。3）对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”（considerable），而本次仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。这与美国疫情防控和疫苗接种效果有关。3、 鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派，但略显“优柔寡断”，市场并不买账。1）经济：有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思，鲍威尔说，一是部分经济数据很好（very good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）通胀：有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能不能达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）削减QE：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering，鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候。4）资产价格：“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，美股三大股指集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%，美元指数亦下行。4、 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？市场期待美联储给出更多明确的态度和信号，例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，鲍威尔的本次发言仍然略显含糊。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5、 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE。建议重点观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。1）圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。2）基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。1 货币政策不变2021年4月28日，美联储公布的4月FOMC会议声明中，货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。与3月相比，2021年4月FOMC会议声明中的货币政策部分“只字未改”，即主要货币政策维持不变，包括：维持法定和超额准备金利率（0.10%），维持联邦基金利率（0-0.25%），维持资产购买节奏（每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元MBS），继续购买CMBS，继续执行回购协议操作等（图表1）。2 对经济前景更加乐观4月声明对美国经济前景的表述有所变化，整体更显乐观。具体有三方面变化（图表2）：1）强调了经济和就业指标的改善。3月声明中对于经济和就业指标的描述是“复苏步伐缓慢”后的“回升”，而本次描述为“疫苗和强有力政策支持”下的“加强”（strengthened），且强调了相较脆弱的部门的情况也已经“显示出改善”。2）明显调整有关通胀的表述，或暗示3月PCE同比已超2%。3月声明说“通胀继续保持在2%以下”，而本次声明删去了这一表述，改为“通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”。考虑到美联储一般提前得到PCE数据，预计4月30日将公布的3月PCE同比增速很可能已经超过2%。3）对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明具体指出，公共卫生危机对“经济活动、就业和通胀”三个方面造成压力，但本次仅笼统地描述为对“经济”造成压力。我们认为，这主要跟通胀已经恢复高位有关，这里的“经济”主要指代经济活动和就业两个方面。此外，3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”（considerable），而本次删去了形容词，仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。如何理解上述变化？我们在前期报告《思考美联储的下一步》中指出，虽然仅相隔一个半月，但4月议息会议所处的阶段和背景，与3月会议有显著区别。第一，美国2月和3月的经济数据差距明显。2月受极寒天气扰动，美国经济数据再度低迷，而3-4月经济数据普遍乐观，例如3月非农就业大增（图表3），4月以来初请失业金人数显著下降（图表4），表现美国经济复苏之路重回正轨。第二，3月开始基数效应显现，美国3月通胀指标（CPI和PPI）已经大幅抬头（图表5、图表6）。我们的基准测算显示，美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。美联储最为关注的通胀指标是PCE（个人消费支出指数）。根据美联储3月的最新预测（2021年全年PCE同比预测中值为2.4%），我们测算，2021年美国PCE月环比平均为0.185%，以此作为PCE通胀演化的基准路径，可预测今年3月以后PCE同比增速均保持2%以上，其中4月和5月可能迎来高点，分别达到2.75%和2.77%（图表7）。需注意，这仅为保守估计，近期新涨价因素有可能进一步推高美国通胀，例如3月美国CPI同比和环比分别为2.6%和0.6%。因此，即将公布的3月PCE数据很有可能高于基准路径，目前市场预测3月PCE环比增长0.3%。第三，美国疫情控制情况良好（图表8），疫苗接种持续推进（图表9）。相较3月，现阶段经济风险确实已经有所下降。3 鲍威尔发言略显“优柔寡断”，市场未能买账鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派，但略显“优柔寡断”。重点内容包括：1）对经济的表述：复苏仍然不平衡、不完整，劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企。有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思，鲍威尔说，一是部分经济数据很好（very good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）对通胀的表述：我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升，且在劳动力市场仍然疲软的情况下，不太可能看到通胀持续上升；今年通胀暂时上升不符合加息的标准。有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能否达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）对削减QE的回复：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering（缩减QE），鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候，经济活动最近刚刚回升，要达到标准还需要一段时间。4）关于金融稳定和资产价格。“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”5）关于数字货币。有记者问如中国等正在推出数字货币、美联储是不是落后了。鲍威尔回答，美联储与其他国家央行推行数字货币的目的以及造成的影响是不一样的，需要格外谨慎。“正确比快速更加重要”。美联储决议以及鲍威尔讲话后，市场“并不买账”。美联储公布决议后、鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指小幅上涨；但鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，三大股指短线下跌，最终集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。鲍威尔1小时的讲话后，10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%；美元指数下行至90.6左右；黄金期货价格转涨、WTI和布伦特原油期货价格先涨后跌、波幅较小。4 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？4月议息会议前，市场普遍预计美联储仍然“按兵不动”，但希望美联储给出更为明确的态度和信号。例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，很明显，鲍威尔本次的发言仍然略显含糊，略显“优柔寡断”。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE未来一段时间，对于美联储政策动向的跟踪，我们建议重点应同步观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。疫苗进展与就业市场恢复强相关，虽然后者更加明确出现在美联储决策框架中，但前者的领先性更强、更有助于前瞻性判断。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。这也意味着，6、7月美联储很可能需要就通胀数据的走高进行讨论。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374268973,"gmtCreate":1619449121492,"gmtModify":1704724119329,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575590605777204","idStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374268973","repostId":"1117870906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117870906","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619448210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117870906?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 22:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Dallas Fed business activity index hits new high since 2006 in April","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117870906","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"得州工厂活动在4月份强劲增长。","content":"<p>US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index:<b>37.3，</b>It is a new high since January 1, 2006. Expected: 30, Previous: 28.9</p><p>Dallas Fed: Texas factory activity grew strongly in April, according to corporate executives interviewed. A key measure of the state of manufacturing, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Output Index in April, fell 14 points to 34.0, still well above average, indicating strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also showed strong economic growth this month, with demand, labour, prices and wage indices all hitting record highs.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Dallas Fed business activity index hits new high since 2006 in April</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Dallas Fed business activity index hits new high since 2006 in April\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-26 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index:<b>37.3，</b>It is a new high since January 1, 2006. Expected: 30, Previous: 28.9</p><p>Dallas Fed: Texas factory activity grew strongly in April, according to corporate executives interviewed. A key measure of the state of manufacturing, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Output Index in April, fell 14 points to 34.0, still well above average, indicating strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also showed strong economic growth this month, with demand, labour, prices and wage indices all hitting record highs.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3943713662845b492791ee924661e81d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117870906","content_text":"美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数：37.3，为2006年1月1日以来新高。预期：30，前值：28.9\n达拉斯联储：受访企业高管表示，得州工厂活动在4月份强劲增长。衡量制造业状况的关键指标，即4月达拉斯联储制造业产出指数下跌14点，至34.0，仍远高于平均水平，表明产出增长强劲。其它衡量制造业活动的指标也显示，本月经济增长强劲，需求、劳动力、价格和工资指数均创下历史新高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":198956083,"gmtCreate":1620920541042,"gmtModify":1704350562955,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198956083","repostId":"1167274875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167274875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620916842,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167274875?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 22:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Google Announces Contract Win to Provide Computing and Networking Resources to SpaceX","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167274875","media":"智通财经","summary":"显然，这笔交易代表着谷歌在云计算市场的一次胜利。","content":"<p>On Thursday, it was reported,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>It announced today that its cloud division has won a contract to provide computing and networking resources to Elon Musk's space exploration technology company SpaceX to help SpaceX provide Internet services through its Starlink satellites.</p><p>According to the cooperation agreement, SpaceX will install ground stations in Google data centers to connect SpaceX's \"Starlink\" satellites, and plans to provide fast Internet services for enterprises in the second half of this year. Obviously, the deal represents a win for Google in the cloud computing market. At present, the cloud computing market is growing rapidly, and Google is trying to move from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Grab the share in your hands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debeb3f13e3f9c15841bd1543c97f5d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google Announces Contract Win to Provide Computing and Networking Resources to SpaceX</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle Announces Contract Win to Provide Computing and Networking Resources to SpaceX\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 22:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, it was reported,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>It announced today that its cloud division has won a contract to provide computing and networking resources to Elon Musk's space exploration technology company SpaceX to help SpaceX provide Internet services through its Starlink satellites.</p><p>According to the cooperation agreement, SpaceX will install ground stations in Google data centers to connect SpaceX's \"Starlink\" satellites, and plans to provide fast Internet services for enterprises in the second half of this year. Obviously, the deal represents a win for Google in the cloud computing market. At present, the cloud computing market is growing rapidly, and Google is trying to move from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Grab the share in your hands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/debeb3f13e3f9c15841bd1543c97f5d3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474654.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab2a423ce1c2af9697237b229cede72","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474654.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1167274875","content_text":"周四，据报道，谷歌今日宣布，其云部门已赢得一份合同，向埃隆·马斯克旗下太空探索技术公司SpaceX提供计算和网络资源，以帮助SpaceX通过其“星链”（Starlink）卫星提供互联网服务。根据合作协议，SpaceX将在谷歌数据中心安装地面站，连接SpaceX的“星链”卫星，计划在今年下半年为企业提供快速互联网服务。显然，这笔交易代表着谷歌在云计算市场的一次胜利。当前，云计算市场发展迅速，而谷歌正努力从亚马逊和微软手中抢夺份额。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198958520,"gmtCreate":1620920496760,"gmtModify":1704350562311,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"very good","listText":"very good","text":"very good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198958520","repostId":"1124198478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124198478","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620917329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124198478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 22:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ali dropped nearly 5% intraday, dropping shares to lowest since July last year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124198478","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损","content":"<p>On Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell nearly 5% in the session, sending shares as low as $209.50, down more than 30% from the peak set in October last year, and now trading at the lowest price since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news, Alibaba today announced its fourth quarter and full-year financial report of fiscal year 2021. The company's operating loss in the fourth quarter was 7.663 billion, the first quarterly loss since Ali's listing. The company said the losses were mainly affected by fines from antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-off impact, the Company's operating profit was RMB10.565 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Alibaba Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year Report for Fiscal Year 2021</b></a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ali dropped nearly 5% intraday, dropping shares to lowest since July last year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAli dropped nearly 5% intraday, dropping shares to lowest since July last year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-13 22:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell nearly 5% in the session, sending shares as low as $209.50, down more than 30% from the peak set in October last year, and now trading at the lowest price since July last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300acd6dc2868d9f4b9814b67022715\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news, Alibaba today announced its fourth quarter and full-year financial report of fiscal year 2021. The company's operating loss in the fourth quarter was 7.663 billion, the first quarterly loss since Ali's listing. The company said the losses were mainly affected by fines from antitrust investigations. Excluding this one-off impact, the Company's operating profit was RMB10.565 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%.</p><p><b>Click to view:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195138527\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Alibaba Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year Report for Fiscal Year 2021</b></a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124198478","content_text":"周四，阿里巴巴盘中跌近5%，股价低见209.50美元，较去年10月创下的峰值下跌了30％以上，目前股价为去年7月份以来最低。消息面上，阿里巴巴今日公布了2021财年四季度及全年财报。公司四季度经营亏损76.63亿，为阿里上市以来的首次季度亏损。公司称亏损主要受反垄断调查的罚款影响。剔除该一次性影响，公司的经营利润为人民币105.65亿元，同比增长48%。点击查看：阿里巴巴集团2021财年四季度及全年业绩报告","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109275782,"gmtCreate":1619703250546,"gmtModify":1704728283456,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109275782","repostId":"2131309849","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2131309849","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619676617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2131309849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 14:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131309849","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"事件：美国时间2021年4月28日，美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明，美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、 美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变","content":"<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the April FOMC meeting, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed.</i></p><p><b>1. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is \"unchanged\", which is in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>The February and April statements were more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\". We think this is related to the fact that the economic data in March was significantly better than in February<b>。 2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors.\" Our benchmark calculations show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%. 3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement considered the risk to the economic outlook \"considerable\", but this time it was only understated as the economic risk still exists. This is related to the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination effectiveness in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but it was slightly \"indecisive\", and the market did not buy it</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.<b>2) Inflation:</b>A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.<b>3) Cut QE:</b>When a reporter asked if the Fed was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, that's a fact.</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell's speech mentioned the stock market \"bubble\", the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively.</b>Among them, the Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury decreased from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the the US Dollar Index also decreased.</p><p><b>4. How do you treat the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, for example, has the US economy reached what Powell called the \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and where is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, Powell's current statement remains slightly vague. We believe that at this stage,<b>The Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism,</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" is given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators is given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may start discussing cutting QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We estimate that it may take until around July to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population in the United States. 2) Under the base effect, it is expected that the United States will witness the high point of inflation in April-May. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of monetary and fiscal in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term. If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, in the statement of the April FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy section \"remained unchanged\", which was in line with market expectations.</b>Compared with March, the monetary policy section in the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement \"remained unchanged\", that is, the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining the Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the rhythm of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, continuing to execute repo agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2 More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its representation of the U.S. economic outlook, and it was more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Figure 2):</p><p><b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support\", and emphasizes that the situation in the relatively vulnerable sector has also \"shown improvement\".</p><p><b>2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>In March, the statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors\". Considering that the Federal Reserve generally gets PCE data in advance, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in March, which will be announced on April 30th, is likely to have exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically stated that the public health crisis is putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment and inflation\", but this time it is described only generally as putting pressure on the \"economy\". We believe that this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to a high level. The \"economy\" here mainly refers to economic activities and employment. In addition, in the March statement, the risk to the economic outlook was \"considerable\", but this time the adjective was deleted, and it was only understated that the economic risk still exists.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report \"Thinking about the Next Step of the Federal Reserve\", we pointed out that although it is only one and a half months apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting are significantly different from those of the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is an obvious gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March.</b>Disturbed by extremely cold weather in February, the economic data of the United States was depressed again, while the economic data from March to April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm employment increased greatly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial unemployment claims dropped significantly since April (Chart 4), indicating that the road of economic recovery in the United States is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to appear in March, and the inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) in the United States have risen sharply in March (Chart 5 and Chart 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculation shows that the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%.</b>The inflation measure that the Fed is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index). According to the latest forecast of the Federal Reserve in March (the median year-on-year forecast of PCE for the whole year of 2021 is 2.4%), we estimate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 is 0.185%. Using this as the benchmark path of PCE inflation evolution, it can be predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to usher in a high point, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate, and the recent new price increase factors may further push up US inflation. For example, in March, the US CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the benchmark path, and the market is currently forecasting a 0.3% month-on-month PCE growth in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the U.S. is well under control (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to advance (Chart 9). Compared with March, the economic risk has indeed declined at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3 Powell's speech was slightly \"indecisive\" and the market failed to buy it</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but slightly \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Representation of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labour market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.</p><p><b>2) Statement of inflation:</b>It seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, unlikely to see inflation continue to rise; A temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet the criteria of rate hike. A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.</p><p><b>3) Reply to cut QE:</b>A reporter asked whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE). Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering the scale of bond purchases. Economic activity has just recently picked up, and it will take some time to meet the standard.</p><p><b>4) On financial stability and asset prices.</b>\"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, which is a fact. I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccination and reopening the economy.\"</p><p><b>5) About digital currency.</b>A reporter asked whether China, for example, is launching digital currency and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell replied that the purpose and impact of the implementation of digital currency by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are different, and it is necessary to be extra cautious. \"Being right is more important than being fast\".</p><p><b>After the Fed resolution and Powell's speech, the market \"didn't buy it.\"</b>After the Fed announced its resolution and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly; However, after Powell's speech mentioned the \"bubble\" of the stock market, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term, and finally closed down collectively, with the Dow falling by 0.48%, the S&P falling by 0.08% and the Nasdaq falling by 0.28%. After Powell's one-hour speech, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 1.64% to 1.62%; the US Dollar Index down to around 90.6; The price of gold futures rose, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose first and then fell, with small volatility.</p><p><b>4 What do you think of the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>Before the interest rate meeting in April, the market generally expected that the Fed would still \"stand still\", but hoped that the Fed would give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell calls an \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and what is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's speech this time is still slightly vague and slightly \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>At this stage, the Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" and no \"red line\" of inflation indicators are given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5 Fed May Start Discussions on QE Cuts at June or July Meetings</b></p><p>In the coming period, for the tracking of the Fed's policy trends, we suggest that two sets of data should be observed simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressure.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Fed's decision-making framework, the former is more leading and more helpful for forward-looking judgment. The St. Louis Fed's Bullard said on April 7 that discussions of tapering QE could be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We calculate,<b>It may take until around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population.</b></p><p>Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness the high of inflation in April-May. This also means that in June and July, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to discuss the higher inflation data. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term.<b>If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</b></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the April FOMC meeting, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed.</i></p><p><b>1. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is \"unchanged\", which is in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>The February and April statements were more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\". We think this is related to the fact that the economic data in March was significantly better than in February<b>。 2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors.\" Our benchmark calculations show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%. 3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement considered the risk to the economic outlook \"considerable\", but this time it was only understated as the economic risk still exists. This is related to the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination effectiveness in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but it was slightly \"indecisive\", and the market did not buy it</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.<b>2) Inflation:</b>A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.<b>3) Cut QE:</b>When a reporter asked if the Fed was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, that's a fact.</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell's speech mentioned the stock market \"bubble\", the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively.</b>Among them, the Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury decreased from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the the US Dollar Index also decreased.</p><p><b>4. How do you treat the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, for example, has the US economy reached what Powell called the \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and where is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, Powell's current statement remains slightly vague. We believe that at this stage,<b>The Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism,</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" is given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators is given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may start discussing cutting QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We estimate that it may take until around July to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population in the United States. 2) Under the base effect, it is expected that the United States will witness the high point of inflation in April-May. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of monetary and fiscal in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term. If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, in the statement of the April FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy section \"remained unchanged\", which was in line with market expectations.</b>Compared with March, the monetary policy section in the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement \"remained unchanged\", that is, the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining the Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the rhythm of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, continuing to execute repo agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2 More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its representation of the U.S. economic outlook, and it was more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Figure 2):</p><p><b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support\", and emphasizes that the situation in the relatively vulnerable sector has also \"shown improvement\".</p><p><b>2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>In March, the statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors\". Considering that the Federal Reserve generally gets PCE data in advance, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in March, which will be announced on April 30th, is likely to have exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically stated that the public health crisis is putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment and inflation\", but this time it is described only generally as putting pressure on the \"economy\". We believe that this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to a high level. The \"economy\" here mainly refers to economic activities and employment. In addition, in the March statement, the risk to the economic outlook was \"considerable\", but this time the adjective was deleted, and it was only understated that the economic risk still exists.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report \"Thinking about the Next Step of the Federal Reserve\", we pointed out that although it is only one and a half months apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting are significantly different from those of the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is an obvious gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March.</b>Disturbed by extremely cold weather in February, the economic data of the United States was depressed again, while the economic data from March to April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm employment increased greatly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial unemployment claims dropped significantly since April (Chart 4), indicating that the road of economic recovery in the United States is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to appear in March, and the inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) in the United States have risen sharply in March (Chart 5 and Chart 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculation shows that the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%.</b>The inflation measure that the Fed is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index). According to the latest forecast of the Federal Reserve in March (the median year-on-year forecast of PCE for the whole year of 2021 is 2.4%), we estimate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 is 0.185%. Using this as the benchmark path of PCE inflation evolution, it can be predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to usher in a high point, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate, and the recent new price increase factors may further push up US inflation. For example, in March, the US CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the benchmark path, and the market is currently forecasting a 0.3% month-on-month PCE growth in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the U.S. is well under control (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to advance (Chart 9). Compared with March, the economic risk has indeed declined at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3 Powell's speech was slightly \"indecisive\" and the market failed to buy it</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but slightly \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Representation of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labour market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.</p><p><b>2) Statement of inflation:</b>It seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, unlikely to see inflation continue to rise; A temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet the criteria of rate hike. A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.</p><p><b>3) Reply to cut QE:</b>A reporter asked whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE). Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering the scale of bond purchases. Economic activity has just recently picked up, and it will take some time to meet the standard.</p><p><b>4) On financial stability and asset prices.</b>\"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, which is a fact. I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccination and reopening the economy.\"</p><p><b>5) About digital currency.</b>A reporter asked whether China, for example, is launching digital currency and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell replied that the purpose and impact of the implementation of digital currency by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are different, and it is necessary to be extra cautious. \"Being right is more important than being fast\".</p><p><b>After the Fed resolution and Powell's speech, the market \"didn't buy it.\"</b>After the Fed announced its resolution and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly; However, after Powell's speech mentioned the \"bubble\" of the stock market, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term, and finally closed down collectively, with the Dow falling by 0.48%, the S&P falling by 0.08% and the Nasdaq falling by 0.28%. After Powell's one-hour speech, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 1.64% to 1.62%; the US Dollar Index down to around 90.6; The price of gold futures rose, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose first and then fell, with small volatility.</p><p><b>4 What do you think of the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>Before the interest rate meeting in April, the market generally expected that the Fed would still \"stand still\", but hoped that the Fed would give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell calls an \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and what is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's speech this time is still slightly vague and slightly \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>At this stage, the Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" and no \"red line\" of inflation indicators are given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5 Fed May Start Discussions on QE Cuts at June or July Meetings</b></p><p>In the coming period, for the tracking of the Fed's policy trends, we suggest that two sets of data should be observed simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressure.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Fed's decision-making framework, the former is more leading and more helpful for forward-looking judgment. The St. Louis Fed's Bullard said on April 7 that discussions of tapering QE could be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We calculate,<b>It may take until around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population.</b></p><p>Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness the high of inflation in April-May. This also means that in June and July, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to discuss the higher inflation data. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term.<b>If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463413.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463413.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2131309849","content_text":"事件：美国时间2021年4月28日，美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明，美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、 美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变化：1）强调了经济和就业指标的改善。3月声明中对于经济和就业指标的描述是“复苏步伐缓慢”后的“回升”，而本次描述为“疫苗和强有力政策支持”下的“加强”（strengthened）。我们认为这与3月经济数据显著好于2月有关。2）明显调整有关通胀的表述，或暗示3月PCE同比已超2%。3月声明说“通胀继续保持在2%以下”，而本次声明删去了这一表述，改为“通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素。” 我们的基准测算显示，由于基数效应，美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。3）对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”（considerable），而本次仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。这与美国疫情防控和疫苗接种效果有关。3、 鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派，但略显“优柔寡断”，市场并不买账。1）经济：有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思，鲍威尔说，一是部分经济数据很好（very good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）通胀：有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能不能达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）削减QE：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering，鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候。4）资产价格：“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，美股三大股指集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%，美元指数亦下行。4、 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？市场期待美联储给出更多明确的态度和信号，例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，鲍威尔的本次发言仍然略显含糊。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5、 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE。建议重点观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。1）圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。2）基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。1 货币政策不变2021年4月28日，美联储公布的4月FOMC会议声明中，货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。与3月相比，2021年4月FOMC会议声明中的货币政策部分“只字未改”，即主要货币政策维持不变，包括：维持法定和超额准备金利率（0.10%），维持联邦基金利率（0-0.25%），维持资产购买节奏（每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元MBS），继续购买CMBS，继续执行回购协议操作等（图表1）。2 对经济前景更加乐观4月声明对美国经济前景的表述有所变化，整体更显乐观。具体有三方面变化（图表2）：1）强调了经济和就业指标的改善。3月声明中对于经济和就业指标的描述是“复苏步伐缓慢”后的“回升”，而本次描述为“疫苗和强有力政策支持”下的“加强”（strengthened），且强调了相较脆弱的部门的情况也已经“显示出改善”。2）明显调整有关通胀的表述，或暗示3月PCE同比已超2%。3月声明说“通胀继续保持在2%以下”，而本次声明删去了这一表述，改为“通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”。考虑到美联储一般提前得到PCE数据，预计4月30日将公布的3月PCE同比增速很可能已经超过2%。3）对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明具体指出，公共卫生危机对“经济活动、就业和通胀”三个方面造成压力，但本次仅笼统地描述为对“经济”造成压力。我们认为，这主要跟通胀已经恢复高位有关，这里的“经济”主要指代经济活动和就业两个方面。此外，3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”（considerable），而本次删去了形容词，仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。如何理解上述变化？我们在前期报告《思考美联储的下一步》中指出，虽然仅相隔一个半月，但4月议息会议所处的阶段和背景，与3月会议有显著区别。第一，美国2月和3月的经济数据差距明显。2月受极寒天气扰动，美国经济数据再度低迷，而3-4月经济数据普遍乐观，例如3月非农就业大增（图表3），4月以来初请失业金人数显著下降（图表4），表现美国经济复苏之路重回正轨。第二，3月开始基数效应显现，美国3月通胀指标（CPI和PPI）已经大幅抬头（图表5、图表6）。我们的基准测算显示，美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。美联储最为关注的通胀指标是PCE（个人消费支出指数）。根据美联储3月的最新预测（2021年全年PCE同比预测中值为2.4%），我们测算，2021年美国PCE月环比平均为0.185%，以此作为PCE通胀演化的基准路径，可预测今年3月以后PCE同比增速均保持2%以上，其中4月和5月可能迎来高点，分别达到2.75%和2.77%（图表7）。需注意，这仅为保守估计，近期新涨价因素有可能进一步推高美国通胀，例如3月美国CPI同比和环比分别为2.6%和0.6%。因此，即将公布的3月PCE数据很有可能高于基准路径，目前市场预测3月PCE环比增长0.3%。第三，美国疫情控制情况良好（图表8），疫苗接种持续推进（图表9）。相较3月，现阶段经济风险确实已经有所下降。3 鲍威尔发言略显“优柔寡断”，市场未能买账鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派，但略显“优柔寡断”。重点内容包括：1）对经济的表述：复苏仍然不平衡、不完整，劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企。有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思，鲍威尔说，一是部分经济数据很好（very good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）对通胀的表述：我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升，且在劳动力市场仍然疲软的情况下，不太可能看到通胀持续上升；今年通胀暂时上升不符合加息的标准。有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能否达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）对削减QE的回复：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering（缩减QE），鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候，经济活动最近刚刚回升，要达到标准还需要一段时间。4）关于金融稳定和资产价格。“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”5）关于数字货币。有记者问如中国等正在推出数字货币、美联储是不是落后了。鲍威尔回答，美联储与其他国家央行推行数字货币的目的以及造成的影响是不一样的，需要格外谨慎。“正确比快速更加重要”。美联储决议以及鲍威尔讲话后，市场“并不买账”。美联储公布决议后、鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指小幅上涨；但鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，三大股指短线下跌，最终集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。鲍威尔1小时的讲话后，10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%；美元指数下行至90.6左右；黄金期货价格转涨、WTI和布伦特原油期货价格先涨后跌、波幅较小。4 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？4月议息会议前，市场普遍预计美联储仍然“按兵不动”，但希望美联储给出更为明确的态度和信号。例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，很明显，鲍威尔本次的发言仍然略显含糊，略显“优柔寡断”。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE未来一段时间，对于美联储政策动向的跟踪，我们建议重点应同步观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。疫苗进展与就业市场恢复强相关，虽然后者更加明确出现在美联储决策框架中，但前者的领先性更强、更有助于前瞻性判断。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。这也意味着，6、7月美联储很可能需要就通胀数据的走高进行讨论。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198955855,"gmtCreate":1620920620877,"gmtModify":1704350566201,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198955855","repostId":"2135621359","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135621359","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620912742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135621359?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 21:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Muddy Waters Short Lemonade: There are serious security vulnerabilities and should go offline immediately","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135621359","media":"智通财经","summary":"可能会暴露客户个人身份信息，要求公司立即让网站下线，修复漏洞。","content":"<p>On Thursday, May 13, Muddy Waters claimed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">Lemonade</a>There is a serious security breach in the website that could expose customer personally identifiable information (PII), requiring the company to take the website offline immediately to fix the breach. Affected by this news, Lemonade's share price once fell by more than 7% before the market, and then gradually picked up. As of press time at the beginning of the session, Lemonade rose 0.68% to $60.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98446c1f3c305e0b0e624ee8263a4356\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is understood that Muddy Waters is not The first short seller to target Lemonade, with The Friendly Bear also shorting The company late last year.</p><p>A number of investment banks downgraded their ratings on internet insurer Lemonade, affected by a larger-than-market loss per share in the first quarter. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Andrew Kligerman pointed to more-than-expected damage from the Texas storm as a major reason for the stock's losses. The earnings report showed that the 121% gross loss margin in the first quarter included 50% catastrophe impact. While the adjusted EBITDA loss of $41 million was in line with the bank's expectations,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Still give Lemonade an \"underperform\" rating.</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Muddy Waters Short Lemonade: There are serious security vulnerabilities and should go offline immediately</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMuddy Waters Short Lemonade: There are serious security vulnerabilities and should go offline immediately\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 21:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, May 13, Muddy Waters claimed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">Lemonade</a>There is a serious security breach in the website that could expose customer personally identifiable information (PII), requiring the company to take the website offline immediately to fix the breach. Affected by this news, Lemonade's share price once fell by more than 7% before the market, and then gradually picked up. As of press time at the beginning of the session, Lemonade rose 0.68% to $60.57.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98446c1f3c305e0b0e624ee8263a4356\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is understood that Muddy Waters is not The first short seller to target Lemonade, with The Friendly Bear also shorting The company late last year.</p><p>A number of investment banks downgraded their ratings on internet insurer Lemonade, affected by a larger-than-market loss per share in the first quarter. among<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Andrew Kligerman pointed to more-than-expected damage from the Texas storm as a major reason for the stock's losses. The earnings report showed that the 121% gross loss margin in the first quarter included 50% catastrophe impact. While the adjusted EBITDA loss of $41 million was in line with the bank's expectations,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Still give Lemonade an \"underperform\" rating.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474595.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21a485199ba4d98518695cb468836114","relate_stocks":{"LMND":"Lemonade, Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/474595.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135621359","content_text":"5月13日(周四)，浑水公司(Muddy  Waters)声称，Lemonade网站存在严重安全漏洞，可能会暴露客户个人身份信息(PII)，要求公司立即让网站下线，修复漏洞。受此消息影响，Lemonade盘前股价一度跌逾7%，后逐步回暖，盘初截至发稿，Lemonade涨0.68%，报60.57美元。据了解，浑水并不是第一家瞄准Lemonade的做空者，去年年底，The Friendly Bear也做空该公司。受第一季度每股亏损大于市场预期的影响，多家投行降低了对互联网保险公司Lemonade的评级。其中瑞银分析师Andrew  Kligerman指出，德州风暴造成的超预期的损失是该股亏损的主要原因。财报显示，第一季度121%的毛损率中包含50%的巨灾影响。虽然调整后的EBITDA亏损4100万美元符合该行预期，但瑞银还是给予Lemonade“跑输大市”评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LMND":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198952670,"gmtCreate":1620920597790,"gmtModify":1704350564738,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198952670","repostId":"1129245857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129245857","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1620913695,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129245857?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 21:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"May or the turning point of the whole market: the \"natural enemy\" of the Federal Reserve is here!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129245857","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"通胀爆了，就业萎靡……这叫啥来着？","content":"<p>Author: Le Ming</p><p><b>Primer</b></p><p>At the recent \"pigeon release\" meeting of the Federal Reserve, Powell was asked two embarrassing questions: Now inflation expectations seem to be rising very fiercely. What if inflation reaches the standard before employment? Why are you so confident that inflation won't get out of control this time? Not like in the 1970s?</p><p>For both questions, Powell was not too happy because of the awkward pain points asked.</p><p>Now the pain point begins to appear in the data: at 8: 30 pm on Wednesday, May 12th, the U.S. Department of Labor announced the U.S. CPI in April. The data shows that not only the overall CPI but also the core CPI of the United States, the growth rate in April hit an astonishing record. Among them, the overall CPI of the United States in April increased by 4.2% year-on-year (the market expectation was 3.6%), and the growth rate reached a new high since September 2008; In April, the core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, the largest increase since January 1996.</p><p>The inflation of 5% is not tolerable for the long-term inflation of 2% on average, unless it comes down next month, which means that it is a \"false alarm\", but the possibility of a sharp decline next month seems unlikely at present.</p><p>The market has also conveyed this expectation through prices: the probability of raising interest rates in 2022 has reached 100% after the data was released. This, in turn, means that the QE reduction time, which had just been delayed because the employment data was significantly lower than expected, has been advanced again.</p><p>This feeling of being pulled left and right and not knowing what to do is a bit familiar, and it is also the scene that the Federal Reserve fears most: inflation has exploded, employment is sluggish... What is this called?</p><p><b>Markets are starting to disbelieve the Fed's rhetoric</b></p><p>Long before today's data, markets had already expressed skepticism about the Fed's rhetoric of keeping inflation at 2% over the long term.</p><p>The April consumer survey (the equivalent of the Federal Reserve's \"poll\") released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed: As the economy recovers from the pandemic-induced crisis, the median expectation of U.S. consumers' inflation in the coming year is 3.4%, the highest level since September 2013. Expectations for inflation over the next three years remain unchanged at 3.1%.</p><p>The reason why the Federal Reserve cares so much about inflation \"polls\" is that the most terrible thing about inflation is that it spirals upward after forming a \"public consensus\".</p><p>The expectation of inflation can be roughly divided into three levels: 1. The inflation expectation implied by financial products in the market; 2. The inflation forecast predicted by the so-called \"consensus\" of economists (these two layers are basically consistent with the forecast of the Federal Reserve) 3. The real inflation expectation of the people.</p><p>The third level determines the characteristics of self-actualization of inflation. If after a period of relatively high inflation (most likely above 2%), American workers think that the cost of living has increased and they need to raise wages; If manufacturers think that they need to raise prices to cope with higher wages and various costs, it is not impossible for inflation to eventually rush from 2% + to 5%, or even 10% + in the 1970s.</p><p>In fact, the last time the U.S. CPI was as high as 4.2%, the Fed's interest rate was as high as 20%-it was the stagflation period of the 70s.</p><p><b>Stagflation!?</b></p><p>Stagflation is the Fed's most feared \"natural enemy\"-when stagflation occurs, the Fed's policy will lose its initiative and enter a completely passive state. Because in this case, the Fed's tightening policy can control inflation, but the economy can't stand it; However, if the policy is relaxed to save the economy, inflation will go to heaven-the left and right are not people, and there is no solution; You can only resist it hard and let time digest it slowly, like in the 70s.</p><p>Although the one-month data theoretically only exacerbated market worries, it did not generate panic-after all, the United States was indeed deflationary last April, and what the Fed called the base effect did exist.</p><p>Figure: The U.S. deflated sharply in April last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c80e9218155a4a7d34e31254600a07\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the May data can fall back to about 3%, which is acceptable for the market, then inflation expectations are still \"saved\"; However, if it still remains around 4% next month, the Federal Reserve may need to \"hawk\" quickly and control inflation expectations.</p><p>In addition, in terms of employment, although the non-agricultural data in April is very unsatisfactory (17.5199, -0.26, -1.46%), it is expected to change significantly in May. For details, see: Biden's \"Awakening\"! Can U.S. jobs break a million in May?.</p><p><b>What does it mean</b></p><p>Although this data is shocking, it is still \"one-time\"-it is very normal for the market probability to be adjusted according to the latest situation, and 100% rate hike probability does not mean that it will necessarily happen, because there is still a long time until the end of 2022, and there are still many data in the middle that will change the probability again.</p><p>Still, it would turn the May data into a \"tiebreaker\".</p><p>First of all, in May last year, the U.S. economy got rid of deflation, and its inflation reading is not much different from the rest of 2020. If inflation reaches about 4% again in May, it can no longer be said to be a base problem-at this time, the Federal Reserve needs to \"express its expression\", otherwise inflation is likely to enter the \"self-realization\" channel.</p><p>In addition, whether employment is good or bad in May, it is \"indifferent\": good indicates greater inflationary pressure; A bad indication that stagflation is getting closer-whatever is bad news for the market. That's why the Fed is now repeatedly emphasizing that employment now needs to be pegged to the labor participation rate, because not only is the unemployment rate data \"failing\", but even the non-farm data is not working well now.</p><p>May or the turning point for the whole market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>May or the turning point of the whole market: the \"natural enemy\" of the Federal Reserve is here!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMay or the turning point of the whole market: the \"natural enemy\" of the Federal Reserve is here!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-13 21:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Le Ming</p><p><b>Primer</b></p><p>At the recent \"pigeon release\" meeting of the Federal Reserve, Powell was asked two embarrassing questions: Now inflation expectations seem to be rising very fiercely. What if inflation reaches the standard before employment? Why are you so confident that inflation won't get out of control this time? Not like in the 1970s?</p><p>For both questions, Powell was not too happy because of the awkward pain points asked.</p><p>Now the pain point begins to appear in the data: at 8: 30 pm on Wednesday, May 12th, the U.S. Department of Labor announced the U.S. CPI in April. The data shows that not only the overall CPI but also the core CPI of the United States, the growth rate in April hit an astonishing record. Among them, the overall CPI of the United States in April increased by 4.2% year-on-year (the market expectation was 3.6%), and the growth rate reached a new high since September 2008; In April, the core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, the largest increase since January 1996.</p><p>The inflation of 5% is not tolerable for the long-term inflation of 2% on average, unless it comes down next month, which means that it is a \"false alarm\", but the possibility of a sharp decline next month seems unlikely at present.</p><p>The market has also conveyed this expectation through prices: the probability of raising interest rates in 2022 has reached 100% after the data was released. This, in turn, means that the QE reduction time, which had just been delayed because the employment data was significantly lower than expected, has been advanced again.</p><p>This feeling of being pulled left and right and not knowing what to do is a bit familiar, and it is also the scene that the Federal Reserve fears most: inflation has exploded, employment is sluggish... What is this called?</p><p><b>Markets are starting to disbelieve the Fed's rhetoric</b></p><p>Long before today's data, markets had already expressed skepticism about the Fed's rhetoric of keeping inflation at 2% over the long term.</p><p>The April consumer survey (the equivalent of the Federal Reserve's \"poll\") released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed: As the economy recovers from the pandemic-induced crisis, the median expectation of U.S. consumers' inflation in the coming year is 3.4%, the highest level since September 2013. Expectations for inflation over the next three years remain unchanged at 3.1%.</p><p>The reason why the Federal Reserve cares so much about inflation \"polls\" is that the most terrible thing about inflation is that it spirals upward after forming a \"public consensus\".</p><p>The expectation of inflation can be roughly divided into three levels: 1. The inflation expectation implied by financial products in the market; 2. The inflation forecast predicted by the so-called \"consensus\" of economists (these two layers are basically consistent with the forecast of the Federal Reserve) 3. The real inflation expectation of the people.</p><p>The third level determines the characteristics of self-actualization of inflation. If after a period of relatively high inflation (most likely above 2%), American workers think that the cost of living has increased and they need to raise wages; If manufacturers think that they need to raise prices to cope with higher wages and various costs, it is not impossible for inflation to eventually rush from 2% + to 5%, or even 10% + in the 1970s.</p><p>In fact, the last time the U.S. CPI was as high as 4.2%, the Fed's interest rate was as high as 20%-it was the stagflation period of the 70s.</p><p><b>Stagflation!?</b></p><p>Stagflation is the Fed's most feared \"natural enemy\"-when stagflation occurs, the Fed's policy will lose its initiative and enter a completely passive state. Because in this case, the Fed's tightening policy can control inflation, but the economy can't stand it; However, if the policy is relaxed to save the economy, inflation will go to heaven-the left and right are not people, and there is no solution; You can only resist it hard and let time digest it slowly, like in the 70s.</p><p>Although the one-month data theoretically only exacerbated market worries, it did not generate panic-after all, the United States was indeed deflationary last April, and what the Fed called the base effect did exist.</p><p>Figure: The U.S. deflated sharply in April last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c80e9218155a4a7d34e31254600a07\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the May data can fall back to about 3%, which is acceptable for the market, then inflation expectations are still \"saved\"; However, if it still remains around 4% next month, the Federal Reserve may need to \"hawk\" quickly and control inflation expectations.</p><p>In addition, in terms of employment, although the non-agricultural data in April is very unsatisfactory (17.5199, -0.26, -1.46%), it is expected to change significantly in May. For details, see: Biden's \"Awakening\"! Can U.S. jobs break a million in May?.</p><p><b>What does it mean</b></p><p>Although this data is shocking, it is still \"one-time\"-it is very normal for the market probability to be adjusted according to the latest situation, and 100% rate hike probability does not mean that it will necessarily happen, because there is still a long time until the end of 2022, and there are still many data in the middle that will change the probability again.</p><p>Still, it would turn the May data into a \"tiebreaker\".</p><p>First of all, in May last year, the U.S. economy got rid of deflation, and its inflation reading is not much different from the rest of 2020. If inflation reaches about 4% again in May, it can no longer be said to be a base problem-at this time, the Federal Reserve needs to \"express its expression\", otherwise inflation is likely to enter the \"self-realization\" channel.</p><p>In addition, whether employment is good or bad in May, it is \"indifferent\": good indicates greater inflationary pressure; A bad indication that stagflation is getting closer-whatever is bad news for the market. That's why the Fed is now repeatedly emphasizing that employment now needs to be pegged to the labor participation rate, because not only is the unemployment rate data \"failing\", but even the non-farm data is not working well now.</p><p>May or the turning point for the whole market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129245857","content_text":"作者：乐鸣引子在刚过去不久的美联储“放鸽子”会上，鲍威尔被问到两个尴尬的问题：现在通胀预期看起来上得很猛，万一通胀比就业先达标了，你咋办？你咋那么有信心这次通胀不会失控？不会像上世纪70年代一样？对于这两个问题，鲍威尔都不太高兴，因为问到了尴尬的痛点。如今痛点开始在数据上显现：5月12日周三晚8点半，美国劳工部公布了美国4月CPI。数据显示，不光是美国的整体CPI还是核心CPI，4月份增速都创出惊人记录。其中，美国4月整体CPI同比大增4.2%（市场预期3.6%），增速创2008年9月以来新高；4月核心CPI同比大增3%，创1996年1月以来最大增长。奔5%的通胀，可不是长期通胀平均2%可以忍受的，除非下个月就下来，表示这是“虚惊一场”，但是下个月大幅下滑的可能性目前看来不大。市场通过价格也传达了这一预期：2022年升息的可能性，在数据公布后已经高达100%。这反过来意味着，刚刚因为就业数据大幅不及预期而推迟的缩减QE时间，又再次被提前。这种被左右拉扯不知如何是好的感觉有点似曾相识，也是美联储最害怕的情景：通胀爆了，就业萎靡……这叫啥来着？市场开始不信美联储的说辞了早在今天数据公布之前，市场已经对美联储所谓长期通胀保持2%的说辞表示出了怀疑态度。纽约联邦储备银行公布的4月消费者调查（相当于美联储的“民调”）显示：随着经济从疫情引发的危机中复苏，美国消费者未来一年通胀的预期中值为3.4%，创2013年9月以来最高水平。对未来三年通胀的预期维持在3.1%不变。之所以美联储这么在乎通胀“民调”，是因为通胀最可怕的一点就是形成“民众共识”后螺旋上升。对于通胀的预期，可以粗略分成三个层次：1． 市场上金融产品所隐含的通胀预期；2．所谓经济学家们“共识”预测的通胀预（这两个层基本上跟美联储的预测是一致的）3． 民众的真实通胀预期。第三个层次决定了通胀自我实现的特点。如果经过了一段时间相对高的通胀（很可能高于2%），让美国工人认为生活成本提高了，需要加工资；让厂商认为需要提价才能应对更高的工资和各种成本，那通胀最终从2%+冲上5%，甚至是70年代的10%+都不是没有可能的。实际上，上一次美国CPI高达4.2%的时候，美联储的利率高达20%——正是70年代的滞胀时期。滞胀！？滞胀是美联储最害怕的“天敌”——在滞胀出现时，美联储政策就会失去主动权，进入完全被动状态。因为在这种情况下，美联储收紧政策，虽然可以控制通胀，但是经济受不了；但是如果放松政策救经济，通胀就上天了——左右不是人，无解；只能硬抗，让时间来慢慢消化，像70年代一样。虽然一个月的数据在理论上只是加剧了市场担心，不至于产生恐慌——毕竟去年4月份的美国确实是通缩状态，美联储所说的基数效应确实存在。图：去年4月美国通缩得厉害如果，五月数据可以回落到让市场可以接受的3%左右，那通胀预期还“有得救”；但如果下个月还维持4%左右，那美联储很可能需要赶紧“放鹰”，控制一下通胀预期。另外，就业方面虽然4月非农数据非常不理想(17.5199,-0.26,-1.46%)，但是有望在5月出现大幅改观，详见：拜登“觉醒”！5月美国就业可以破百万么？。意味着什么本次数据虽然令人震惊，但是仍属于“一次性”的性质——市场概率根据最新情况进行调整是非常正常的，100%加息概率也不代表一定发生，因为距离2022年底还有很长时间，中间还有很多数据会再次更改概率。尽管如此，这仍会让5月份数据变成一个“决胜点”。首先，去年5月份美国经济已经摆脱通缩，其通胀读数跟2020年剩下的月份差距不大，如果5月通胀再次高达4%左右，就不能再说是基数问题了——这时候美联储需要“表示表示”，否则通胀很有可能进入“自我实现”通道。另外，不管5月就业好还是不好，都已经“无所谓”了：好就表明通胀压力更大；不好说明滞胀越来越近了——怎么样对市场而言都是坏消息。这就是为什么美联储现在开始反复强调，就业现在需要盯住劳动参与率，因为不仅失业率数据“失灵了”，就连非农数据现在都不太好使了。5月或是整个市场的转折点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109509871,"gmtCreate":1619703336993,"gmtModify":1704728287204,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109509871","repostId":"1170908014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170908014","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618906754,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170908014?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-20 16:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170908014","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，","content":"<p>The May Day holiday is coming soon. It is worth mentioning that this year's May Day Labor Day will continue to take five consecutive days off. Regarding the arrangement of the May Day stock market, it is also the focus of investors' attention. Let's take a look at how many days the May Day stock market will be closed in 2021?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>UK shares:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is the traditional British holiday Bank holiday, and the British stock market is closed for one day</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Australian Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Thursday, April 29 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p>I wish you the most beautiful workers a happy May Day, peace and joy!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-20 16:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The May Day holiday is coming soon. It is worth mentioning that this year's May Day Labor Day will continue to take five consecutive days off. Regarding the arrangement of the May Day stock market, it is also the focus of investors' attention. Let's take a look at how many days the May Day stock market will be closed in 2021?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>UK shares:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is the traditional British holiday Bank holiday, and the British stock market is closed for one day</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Australian Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Thursday, April 29 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p>I wish you the most beautiful workers a happy May Day, peace and joy!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170908014","content_text":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。港股：照常交易。美股：照常交易。英股：5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank holiday，英股休市一日新加坡市场：照常交易。澳大利亚市场：照常交易。沪股通、深股通：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。港股通：4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374268973,"gmtCreate":1619449121492,"gmtModify":1704724119329,"author":{"id":"3575590605777204","authorId":"3575590605777204","name":"ReO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c1f810ba185e2f2242f8e458e6734b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575590605777204","authorIdStr":"3575590605777204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374268973","repostId":"1117870906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117870906","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619448210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117870906?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 22:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Dallas Fed business activity index hits new high since 2006 in April","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117870906","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"得州工厂活动在4月份强劲增长。","content":"<p>US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index:<b>37.3，</b>It is a new high since January 1, 2006. Expected: 30, Previous: 28.9</p><p>Dallas Fed: Texas factory activity grew strongly in April, according to corporate executives interviewed. A key measure of the state of manufacturing, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Output Index in April, fell 14 points to 34.0, still well above average, indicating strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also showed strong economic growth this month, with demand, labour, prices and wage indices all hitting record highs.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Dallas Fed business activity index hits new high since 2006 in April</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Dallas Fed business activity index hits new high since 2006 in April\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-26 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index:<b>37.3，</b>It is a new high since January 1, 2006. Expected: 30, Previous: 28.9</p><p>Dallas Fed: Texas factory activity grew strongly in April, according to corporate executives interviewed. A key measure of the state of manufacturing, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Output Index in April, fell 14 points to 34.0, still well above average, indicating strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also showed strong economic growth this month, with demand, labour, prices and wage indices all hitting record highs.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3943713662845b492791ee924661e81d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117870906","content_text":"美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数：37.3，为2006年1月1日以来新高。预期：30，前值：28.9\n达拉斯联储：受访企业高管表示，得州工厂活动在4月份强劲增长。衡量制造业状况的关键指标，即4月达拉斯联储制造业产出指数下跌14点，至34.0，仍远高于平均水平，表明产出增长强劲。其它衡量制造业活动的指标也显示，本月经济增长强劲，需求、劳动力、价格和工资指数均创下历史新高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}