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2021-06-13

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How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy

2021-06-13

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Markets await the Fed’s meeting before making the next big move in the week ahead

2021-06-13

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'CryptoPunk' NFT sells for $11.8 million at Sotheby's

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Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare

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Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623452760,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142744202?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142744202","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOi","content":"<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&amp;K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&amp;P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 07:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&amp;K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&amp;P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142744202","content_text":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.\nBut with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.\n\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.\n\"No one can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"\nCompany executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.\nBut there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.\nAs Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"\nPrices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.\nThis chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.\nKeeping up?\nPrices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.\nIEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.\nThe changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment.\nRead:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell\nBut that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.\n\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.\n\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.\n\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.\n\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.\n$100 oil is a mixed blessing\nIt took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.\nRecently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.\nAs a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.\nWhile energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.\n\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.\nStarting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.\nThen, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.\nAmundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182211689,"gmtCreate":1623576778741,"gmtModify":1704206519895,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182211689","repostId":"1124998394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124998394","pubTimestamp":1623468911,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124998394?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Markets await the Fed’s meeting before making the next big move in the week ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124998394","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe Federal Reserve’s June meeting is the big event for markets in the week ahead, thoug","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe Federal Reserve’s June meeting is the big event for markets in the week ahead, though it is not expected to take any action.\nStocks meandered Friday, and traders see the potential for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/markets-await-the-feds-meeting-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Markets await the Fed’s meeting before making the next big move in the week ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarkets await the Fed’s meeting before making the next big move in the week ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 11:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/markets-await-the-feds-meeting-in-the-week-ahead.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe Federal Reserve’s June meeting is the big event for markets in the week ahead, though it is not expected to take any action.\nStocks meandered Friday, and traders see the potential for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/markets-await-the-feds-meeting-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/markets-await-the-feds-meeting-in-the-week-ahead.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1124998394","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe Federal Reserve’s June meeting is the big event for markets in the week ahead, though it is not expected to take any action.\nStocks meandered Friday, and traders see the potential for a sideways move early next week as investors await the outcome of the central bank’s meeting Wednesday afternoon.\nMarket pros are watching to see if the Fed tweaks its forecasts for interest rates or inflation.\n\nStocks could trade sideways as investors await the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting next Wednesday afternoon.\nThe Fed’s two-day meeting is the big event for markets in the week ahead. Although the central bank is not expected to take any action, it could make tweaks to its forecasts for interest rates and inflation that market pros say could be market moving.\nStocks meandered Friday and theS&P 500finished at a new high, garnering a 0.4% gain for the week.\n“Markets have to get past Wednesday before anyone makes huge bets,” said Scott Redler, chief strategic officer at T3Live.com. “It’s really that the Street’s looking at the next big obstacle — which is the Fed.”\nThe market is attuned to any discussion about the central bank’s bond-buying program. The program was initiated during the pandemic to provide liquidity to the markets and keep interest rates low. TheFed is widely expected to acknowledgeit will start tapering back on that so-called quantitative easing program later this year.\nOnce the central bank signals it will cut back on its $120 billion monthly bond purchases, it is basically signaling a major shift in its policy from easing to tightening. The Fed is expected to signal a taper well before it takes any action, and its own forecast for interest rates does not show any increases through 2023.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell briefs journalists after the central bank issues its statement at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. He is expected to sound dovish and assure markets the Fed’s policy will remain easy .\n“Let’s say for some reason Powell intimates tapering could happen late this year, not just talk about it but do it,” said Mike Schumacher, head of rate strategy at Wells Fargo. “That would spook the market, or if we get a big increase in inflation projections that would get the markets a little spooked.”\nEconomic calendar\nThere are a few economic reports worth watching, particularlyTuesday’s retail sales for Mayand theproducer price index— a look at producer level inflation.\nThe Federal Reserve will also release itsindustrial production index data, which measures production and capacity in manufacturing, mining and other industries, on Tuesday.\n“Essentially, I think nominal retail sales might be strong,” said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies. “I just think the only thing that thing the market cares about right now is employment because that’s the only thing that can move the needle on the Fed.”\nThemarkets this past week shrugged off a super hot consumer inflation readingfor May, reported Thursday. Economists said the 5% jump in the consumer price index appears to be a temporary reaction to the reopening economy, supply chain disruptions and pent-up demand. But they also said it will take a few more reports to make sure it is not more persistent than the Fed currently expects.\nThe central bank has said it expects inflation to be high for a short period before falling back down, closer to 2%. The Fed will likely raise its forecast of2.2% for this year, given the jump in recent inflation readings.\nIt also predicts that core inflation, as measured by thepersonal consumption expenditures price index, will be at 2% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023.\nWells Fargo’s Schumacher said he is closely watching that inflation forecast, particularly for 2023. According to the Fed’s interest rate forecast, that is also the first time a group of central bank officials see the potential for an increase in the fed funds target rate.\nSo if inflation is higher in their view, the outlook for interest rates could be as well. That could move forward the forecast for the first rate hike, now forecast by a majority of the Fed in 2024.\n“If that number goes up a tenth, that’s a non-event. If it goes up 0.3, it’s a lot in terms of the way the Fed looks at the world,” Schumacher said. The Fed has said it would tolerate inflation above its 2% target for a period of time before it acts.\nMarkowska of Jefferies doubts the Fed rate forecast will shift. The forecast is presented in a so-called “dot plot” with anonymous entries from central bank officials.\nShe noted in March, Federal Open Market Committee participants weresplit 11 to 7 against a 2023 hike, which means three officials would have to change their mind in order to move the median forecast.\n“My base case is it won’t move,” she said. “I just feel like there hasn’t been enough definitive change in the data to really change the Fed’s forecast. Having said that, you just need three people to change their mind. Even if that median forecast goes up, Powell is just going to downplay it during the press conference.”\nShe pointed to thedisappointing May employment report, which showed 559,000 jobs were added, 100,000 less than expected.\nWatch bonds\nStocks finished the past week mixed, with theDowdown 0.8% at 34,479, and theS&P 500eking out a gain of 0.4% to finish the week at a record 4,247. TheNasdaq,boosted by tech, gained nearly 1.9% to reach 14,069. Meanwhile the small-capRussell 2000outperformed the other indices, increasing by 2.2% for the week and landing at 2,335.\nREITs were the best performing major sector for the week, up 2%, followed by the health care sector’s 1.9% gain. Consumer discretionary stocks rose 1.6%. Tech climbed 1.4%, helped by a decline in interest rates.\nBut the financial sector lost 2.4% as interest rates fell, and it was the worst performing sector this week. Financials fell with other cyclicals, like materials, off 2% for the week and industrials off 1.7%.\nMeme stocks remained in the headlinesand continued to trade with a high level of volatility.GameStophit a high of $344.66 Tuesday and dropped as low as $206.13 Friday before closing at $233.34 per share.\nBesides the wild ride by meme stocks in the past week, the market to watch was Treasurys, as yields took a surprising slide. There was a fairly dramatic move in the rate of the benchmark10-year,watched most closely by investors, as it influences mortgages and other important lending rates.\nThe 10-year Treasury yield dipped under 1.43% on Friday. Yields move opposite price, so the move downward represented a buying surge.\n“I feel like this entire move in Treasurys is technical and has nothing to do with fundamentals,” said Jefferies’ Markowska. She said institutions are finding super low yields in Treasury bills and the overnight rates markets. “There’s just an excess of cash that is spilling out to the longer maturities,” she said. “People are still very short.”\nMarkowska said the weaker than expected May jobs report spurred buying that forced some short investors, who bet on higher yields, to cover those positions as rates fell.\nThe fall in the 10-year yield, which hit a high of 1.75% in late March, has been a positive for stocks. It also hasdrawn some stock investors to tech and growth sectors,which had fallen out of favor.\n“Most people in the market will tell you yields will rise significantly at some point. The question is when,” said Schumacher. Many forecasters expect the 10-year yield to reach 2% by the end of the year.\nFinally, investors will also be watching headlines from President Joe Biden’s trip to the U.K. and Europe, where he is attending the G-7 and a meeting with NATO allies. He willhold a summitwith Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday in Geneva.\nWeek ahead calendar\nTuesday\nThe Federal Open Market Committee begins two-day meeting\nEarnings:Oracle,La-Z-Boy, H&R Block\n8:30 a.m. Retail sales\n8:30 a.m. PPI\n9:15 a.m. Empire State manufacturing\n10:00 a.m. Industrial production\n10:00 a.m. Business inventories\n10:00 a.m. NAHB survey\n4:00 p.m. TIC data\nWednesday\nEarnings:Lennar,The Honest Company\n8:30 a.m. Housing starts\n8:30 a.m. Import prices\n8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey\n2:00 p.m. FOMC statement\n2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing\nThursday\nEarnings:Adobe,Kroger,Jabil,Commercial Metals, Smith and Wesson\n8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims\n8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182211952,"gmtCreate":1623576730776,"gmtModify":1704206518753,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182211952","repostId":"1102961449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182219467,"gmtCreate":1623576643759,"gmtModify":1704206517772,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182219467","repostId":"2143788705","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143788705","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623530160,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143788705?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 04:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'CryptoPunk' NFT sells for $11.8 million at Sotheby's","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143788705","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareh","content":"<blockquote>\n Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Who says the NFT bubble has popped ?</b></p>\n<p>A non-fungible token (NFT) of a digital artwork called a CryptoPunk defied expectations and just sold for $11.8 million at Sotheby's on Thursday this week.</p>\n<p>\"CryptoPunks are a set of 10,000 pixel-art characters made by Larva Labs in 2017\" and the mega bucks <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> that sold-- CryptoPunk #7523 -- is \"of the sought-after Alien variety with blue-green skin, and wearing a medical mask,\" according to Reuters . It was bought with bitcoin and no physical artwork changes hands.</p>\n<p>Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DKNG\">$(DKNG)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"We are excited to continue to explore new and interesting ways in presenting these cutting-edge works,\" Michael Bouhanna, a contemporary art specialist at Sotheby's, told Reuters.</p>\n<p>This week the famous \"Doge\" NFT also sold at another auction for $4 million.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'CryptoPunk' NFT sells for $11.8 million at Sotheby's</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'CryptoPunk' NFT sells for $11.8 million at Sotheby's\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-13 04:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Who says the NFT bubble has popped ?</b></p>\n<p>A non-fungible token (NFT) of a digital artwork called a CryptoPunk defied expectations and just sold for $11.8 million at Sotheby's on Thursday this week.</p>\n<p>\"CryptoPunks are a set of 10,000 pixel-art characters made by Larva Labs in 2017\" and the mega bucks <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> that sold-- CryptoPunk #7523 -- is \"of the sought-after Alien variety with blue-green skin, and wearing a medical mask,\" according to Reuters . It was bought with bitcoin and no physical artwork changes hands.</p>\n<p>Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DKNG\">$(DKNG)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"We are excited to continue to explore new and interesting ways in presenting these cutting-edge works,\" Michael Bouhanna, a contemporary art specialist at Sotheby's, told Reuters.</p>\n<p>This week the famous \"Doge\" NFT also sold at another auction for $4 million.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DKNG":"DraftKings Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143788705","content_text":"Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings.\n\nWho says the NFT bubble has popped ?\nA non-fungible token (NFT) of a digital artwork called a CryptoPunk defied expectations and just sold for $11.8 million at Sotheby's on Thursday this week.\n\"CryptoPunks are a set of 10,000 pixel-art characters made by Larva Labs in 2017\" and the mega bucks one that sold-- CryptoPunk #7523 -- is \"of the sought-after Alien variety with blue-green skin, and wearing a medical mask,\" according to Reuters . It was bought with bitcoin and no physical artwork changes hands.\nSotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings $(DKNG)$.\n\"We are excited to continue to explore new and interesting ways in presenting these cutting-edge works,\" Michael Bouhanna, a contemporary art specialist at Sotheby's, told Reuters.\nThis week the famous \"Doge\" NFT also sold at another auction for $4 million.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182235467,"gmtCreate":1623576293659,"gmtModify":1704206513202,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182235467","repostId":"1118102755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118102755","pubTimestamp":1623469189,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118102755?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118102755","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p>\n<p>The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p>\n<p>The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p>\n<p>What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p>\n<p><b>Rising yields</b></p>\n<p>Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p>\n<p>“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p>\n<p>That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p>\n<p><b>Fed tapering</b></p>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p>\n<p>“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p>\n<p>“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p>\n<p>He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p>\n<p>As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p>\n<p><b>How to prepare</b></p>\n<p>When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p>\n<p>The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p>\n<p>Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p>\n<p>“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p>\n<p>Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p>\n<p><b>Your five-point game plan</b></p>\n<p><b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p>\n<p>When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p>\n<p>“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p>\n<p><b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p>\n<p>Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p>\n<p>I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p>\n<p>If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p>\n<p>“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p>\n<p>Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p>\n<p><b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p>\n<p>Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p>\n<p><b>5. Go with financials</b></p>\n<p>Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p>\n<p>The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 11:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118102755","content_text":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.\nThe reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.\nThe government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.\nWhat should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.\nRising yields\nRemember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.\n“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.\nThat’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.\nFed tapering\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.\n“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.\n“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.\nHe thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.\nAs we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&P 500 SPX,+0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04% and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.\nHow to prepare\nWhen considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.\nThe consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.\nYes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.\n“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”\nLooking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.\nYour five-point game plan\n1. Do not go to “defensives”\nWhen people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.\n“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”\n2. Go with companies that benefit from growth\nSince rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.\nI first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17% and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54% and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.\n3. Do not get out of stocks\nIf you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.\n“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”\nMarket timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.\n4. Do not own bonds\nBond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.\n5. Go with financials\nStrong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.\nThe strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07% and Bank of America BAC,+0.41% are up over twice as much as the S&P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361985921,"gmtCreate":1614185724563,"gmtModify":1704889347672,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meh","listText":"Meh","text":"Meh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/361985921","repostId":"1129467108","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129467108","pubTimestamp":1614164417,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129467108?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129467108","media":"Barrons","summary":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullie","content":"<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.</p><p>Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.</p><p>TheS&amp;P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p>Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”</p><p>As President Joe Biden’s administration&nbsp;champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move&nbsp;that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.</p><p>Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.</p><p>To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls&nbsp;with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.</p><p>The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.</p><p>Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.</p><p>Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.</p><p>For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.</p><p>Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&amp;P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-24 19:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129467108","content_text":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.TheS&P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”As President Joe Biden’s administration champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369819689,"gmtCreate":1614016821141,"gmtModify":1704887025670,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QBAN\">$Telco Cuba, Inc.(QBAN)$</a>gogogo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QBAN\">$Telco Cuba, Inc.(QBAN)$</a>gogogo","text":"$Telco Cuba, Inc.(QBAN)$gogogo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ee8f39ddba9fdff9a93118c0642ad","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369819689","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":184986211,"gmtCreate":1623680980634,"gmtModify":1704208576177,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184986211","repostId":"2143784913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182219467,"gmtCreate":1623576643759,"gmtModify":1704206517772,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182219467","repostId":"2143788705","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143788705","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623530160,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143788705?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 04:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'CryptoPunk' NFT sells for $11.8 million at Sotheby's","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143788705","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareh","content":"<blockquote>\n Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Who says the NFT bubble has popped ?</b></p>\n<p>A non-fungible token (NFT) of a digital artwork called a CryptoPunk defied expectations and just sold for $11.8 million at Sotheby's on Thursday this week.</p>\n<p>\"CryptoPunks are a set of 10,000 pixel-art characters made by Larva Labs in 2017\" and the mega bucks <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> that sold-- CryptoPunk #7523 -- is \"of the sought-after Alien variety with blue-green skin, and wearing a medical mask,\" according to Reuters . It was bought with bitcoin and no physical artwork changes hands.</p>\n<p>Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DKNG\">$(DKNG)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"We are excited to continue to explore new and interesting ways in presenting these cutting-edge works,\" Michael Bouhanna, a contemporary art specialist at Sotheby's, told Reuters.</p>\n<p>This week the famous \"Doge\" NFT also sold at another auction for $4 million.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'CryptoPunk' NFT sells for $11.8 million at Sotheby's</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'CryptoPunk' NFT sells for $11.8 million at Sotheby's\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-13 04:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Who says the NFT bubble has popped ?</b></p>\n<p>A non-fungible token (NFT) of a digital artwork called a CryptoPunk defied expectations and just sold for $11.8 million at Sotheby's on Thursday this week.</p>\n<p>\"CryptoPunks are a set of 10,000 pixel-art characters made by Larva Labs in 2017\" and the mega bucks <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> that sold-- CryptoPunk #7523 -- is \"of the sought-after Alien variety with blue-green skin, and wearing a medical mask,\" according to Reuters . It was bought with bitcoin and no physical artwork changes hands.</p>\n<p>Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DKNG\">$(DKNG)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"We are excited to continue to explore new and interesting ways in presenting these cutting-edge works,\" Michael Bouhanna, a contemporary art specialist at Sotheby's, told Reuters.</p>\n<p>This week the famous \"Doge\" NFT also sold at another auction for $4 million.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DKNG":"DraftKings Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143788705","content_text":"Sotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings.\n\nWho says the NFT bubble has popped ?\nA non-fungible token (NFT) of a digital artwork called a CryptoPunk defied expectations and just sold for $11.8 million at Sotheby's on Thursday this week.\n\"CryptoPunks are a set of 10,000 pixel-art characters made by Larva Labs in 2017\" and the mega bucks one that sold-- CryptoPunk #7523 -- is \"of the sought-after Alien variety with blue-green skin, and wearing a medical mask,\" according to Reuters . It was bought with bitcoin and no physical artwork changes hands.\nSotheby's announced the work was bought by Israeli entrepreneur Shalom Meckenzie, the largest shareholder of digital sports company DraftKings $(DKNG)$.\n\"We are excited to continue to explore new and interesting ways in presenting these cutting-edge works,\" Michael Bouhanna, a contemporary art specialist at Sotheby's, told Reuters.\nThis week the famous \"Doge\" NFT also sold at another auction for $4 million.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182211689,"gmtCreate":1623576778741,"gmtModify":1704206519895,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182211689","repostId":"1124998394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182211464,"gmtCreate":1623576815758,"gmtModify":1704206520547,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182211464","repostId":"2142744202","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142744202","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623452760,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142744202?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142744202","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOi","content":"<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&amp;K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&amp;P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 07:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&amp;K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&amp;P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142744202","content_text":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.\nBut with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.\n\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.\n\"No one can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"\nCompany executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.\nBut there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.\nAs Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"\nPrices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.\nThis chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.\nKeeping up?\nPrices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.\nIEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.\nThe changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment.\nRead:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell\nBut that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.\n\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.\n\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.\n\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.\n\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.\n$100 oil is a mixed blessing\nIt took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.\nRecently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.\nAs a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.\nWhile energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.\n\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.\nStarting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.\nThen, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.\nAmundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182211952,"gmtCreate":1623576730776,"gmtModify":1704206518753,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182211952","repostId":"1102961449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102961449","pubTimestamp":1623469034,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102961449?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jim Cramer: Be patient with bitcoin, approach the S&P with caution","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102961449","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer reviewed chart analysis to gauge a bottom in bitcoin and peak in the S","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer reviewed chart analysis to gauge a bottom in bitcoin and peak in the S&P 500.\n“The charts, as interpreted by Tom DeMark, suggest that Bitcoin might take another month to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/jim-cramer-be-patient-with-bitcoin-approach-the-sp-with-caution.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jim Cramer: Be patient with bitcoin, approach the S&P with caution</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJim Cramer: Be patient with bitcoin, approach the S&P with caution\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 11:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/jim-cramer-be-patient-with-bitcoin-approach-the-sp-with-caution.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer reviewed chart analysis to gauge a bottom in bitcoin and peak in the S&P 500.\n“The charts, as interpreted by Tom DeMark, suggest that Bitcoin might take another month to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/jim-cramer-be-patient-with-bitcoin-approach-the-sp-with-caution.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/jim-cramer-be-patient-with-bitcoin-approach-the-sp-with-caution.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1102961449","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer reviewed chart analysis to gauge a bottom in bitcoin and peak in the S&P 500.\n“The charts, as interpreted by Tom DeMark, suggest that Bitcoin might take another month to bottom, while the S&P 500 could peak as soon as next week,” he said on “Mad Money.′\n“Considering Tom’s track record, that’s a good reason to be patient with bitcoin and approach the S&P with some caution,” he said.\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer is advising that investors who are searching for entry and exit points keep a close eye on both stock and cryptocurrency trades in the coming weeks.\nThe “Mad Money” host on Friday reviewed chart analysis from Tom DeMark, the founder and head of DeMark Analytics.\n“The charts, as interpreted by Tom DeMark, suggest thatbitcoinmight take another month to bottom, while the S&P 500 could peak as soon as next week,” he said. “Considering Tom’s track record, that’s a good reason to be patient with bitcoin and approach the S&P with some caution.”\nDeMark invented the DeMark Indicator, which some traders use to time the market. The methodology, which follows patterns to project when a trend could change course, is popular among crypto traders to spot highs and lows, Cramer said.\nCramer reviewed the daily chart action for bitcoin, which peaked at around $65,000 in mid-April. The digital coin is now trading above $37,300 as of Friday after falling to $30,000 in mid-May.\nDeMark, who said the drop in bitcoin resembles the crash of 1987, projected that the decline could bring the token’s value to a floor of $32,000 — or $24,000 in the worst case. He now thinks that bitcoin will generally hold above the May 19th low, Cramer said.\nIn what’s known as “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 20% on Oct. 19, 1987. It was the bookend of a 36% decline in the blue-chip index from August that year.\n“If DeMark’s right, you could get a chance to buy bitcoin in the not-too-distant future, and I might take it,” Cramer said. “I think this ’87 analogy is good news. After the crash of ’87, the stock market bounced back fast.”\nAs for the S&P 500, which closed at a record for the second-straight day, DeMark’s indicator suggests the index could be close to a top, Cramer said. DeMark has price targets of $4,335 and $4,344, about 2% higher than Friday’s finish.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182235467,"gmtCreate":1623576293659,"gmtModify":1704206513202,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182235467","repostId":"1118102755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118102755","pubTimestamp":1623469189,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118102755?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118102755","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Don’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.</p>\n<p>The reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.</p>\n<p>The government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.</p>\n<p>What should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.</p>\n<p><b>Rising yields</b></p>\n<p>Remember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452%&nbsp;moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.</p>\n<p>“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.</p>\n<p>That’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.</p>\n<p><b>Fed tapering</b></p>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee&nbsp;(FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.</p>\n<p>“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.</p>\n<p>“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.</p>\n<p>He thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.</p>\n<p>As we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&amp;P 500 SPX,+0.19%,&nbsp;the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04%&nbsp;and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.</p>\n<p><b>How to prepare</b></p>\n<p>When considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.</p>\n<p>The consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.</p>\n<p>Yes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.</p>\n<p>“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”</p>\n<p>Looking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&amp;P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&amp;P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.</p>\n<p><b>Your five-point game plan</b></p>\n<p><b>1. Do not go to “defensives”</b></p>\n<p>When people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.</p>\n<p>“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”</p>\n<p><b>2. Go with companies that benefit from growth</b></p>\n<p>Since rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.</p>\n<p>I first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17%&nbsp;and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54%&nbsp;and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&amp;P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. Do not get out of stocks</b></p>\n<p>If you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.</p>\n<p>“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”</p>\n<p>Market timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.</p>\n<p><b>4. Do not own bonds</b></p>\n<p>Bond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.</p>\n<p><b>5. Go with financials</b></p>\n<p>Strong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.</p>\n<p>The strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07%&nbsp;and Bank of America BAC,+0.41%&nbsp;are up over twice as much as the S&amp;P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon’t be fooled — inflation is a big risk for stock market investors. Here’s how to prepare \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 11:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-inflation-is-a-big-risk-for-stock-market-investors-heres-how-to-prepare-11623421036?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118102755","content_text":"Michael Brush advises on how you can avoid making mistakes as bond yields rise and the central bank reduces its stimulus.\n\nDon’t be fooled by the placid response to the highest inflation rate in over a decade. Inflation will remain elevated enough to shake up the stock market, possibly causing a selloff as much as 15%. You need to prepare now.\nThe reason: Persistently high inflation will move the 10-year Treasury yield to 2% and get the Federal Reserve to start tapering its stimulus by the end of the year. Both will rattle the stock market.\nThe government said June 10 that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%.\nWhat should you do? Probably the opposite of what you are thinking. Before we get to that, here is a look at the two key events for stocks — in the bond market and at the Fed — between today and the end of the year.\nRising yields\nRemember how the stock market freaked out earlier this year when the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y,1.452% moved up to around 1.7%? Well, expect a repeat. Only worse.\n“We suspect that inflation in the U.S. will prove more persistent than investors currently appear to anticipate,” says Capital Economics economist Franziska Palmas, citing the tight labor market and wage growth. Her research group puts the 10-year yield at 2.25% by the end of this year, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.\nThat’ll be a big move from the current level of 1.5%. Stock investors tend to panic when interest rates rise a lot.\nFed tapering\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has downplayed the need for tapering the central bank’s bond purchases to keep yields low. But half of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have recently said they’re ready to start talking about tapering. The FOMC is the Fed branch that sets monetary policy.\n“It will be increasingly hard for Powell to claim the economy needs to make ‘substantial further progress’ toward achieving maximum employment before the Fed starts talking about talking about tapering,” says Ed Yardeni, author of Predicting the Markets and head of Yardeni Research. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed is awaiting “substantial further progress” in the economy before terminating its stimulus.\n“Given the performance of the economy, it is reasonable to expect they will start to taper before end of year, and a few months later they will start to raise the federal funds rate,” predicts Yardeni.\nHe thinks the Fed will announce a decision to start tapering in its July meeting. Tapering refers to a reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. This tightens the money supply to put the brakes on growth. Once purchases go to zero, the Fed moves on to cutting rates.\nAs we know, tapering causes a “taper tantrum” in the stock market, meaning a sharp selloff in indices like the S&P 500 SPX,+0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,+0.04% and Nasdaq COMP,+0.35%.\nHow to prepare\nWhen considering how to position for the probable selloff caused by rising bond yields and Fed tightening, the key things to remember is why these things are happening in the first place, and what history tells us about how stocks behave.\nThe consensus view is that tapering and rising bond yields kill off economic growth and the bull market in stocks. But this isn’t actually true.\nYes, initially, tightening can make stocks fall — or churn sideways, at best. But then stocks shake it off and move higher as the bull market continues. This makes sense, because the tightening is happening for good reasons that help companies — strong economic growth. This pushes earnings a lot higher, which resets valuations lower — back down to levels investors feel comfortable with.\n“Tapering is part and parcel of a recovery,” says Leuthold market strategist Jim Paulsen. “It is a response to successful policy and a rebound in the economy. It is a natural part of the bull market that allows the market to go higher. It’s a healthy development.”\nLooking through all the market fireworks that may lie ahead, Paulsen thinks underlying economic growth will push S&P 500 earnings up to $220 by the end of the year. Assuming the S&P 500 is at current levels or a little bit lower, that would bring the index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio down to 18-19 — which is near or below the average since 1990. “That sets up the next leg of the bull market,” he says.\nYour five-point game plan\n1. Do not go to “defensives”\nWhen people see stock market turbulence, the knee-jerk reaction is to go for the “stability” of defensive names like utilities and consumer staples. But that would be a mistake. You want to go to defensives when the economy is slowing or contracting, not when it is strong. Another problem is that defensive names pay yield. So, like bonds, they get hit by rising interest rates, which devalue dividends — and dividend-paying stocks and bonds.\n“The best way to protect yourself is to tie your portfolio to the overheated economy. That is where the best profit growth and profit leverage is,” says Paulsen. “You do not get that with defensives.”\n2. Go with companies that benefit from growth\nSince rapid economic growth is causing the tapering — and the growth is usually not killed off by tightening — stocks linked to growth typically are the best place to be. This means cyclicals like industrials, basic materials consumer names, small-caps and international stocks. “Slower growth consumer staples and utilities won’t keep up with growth areas of the market,” says Paulsen.\nI first suggested Lindblad Expeditions LIND,+0.17% and Cardlytics CDLX,+4.54% and in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks (the link to my site is in the bio, below) in September 2020 and November 2019. I still like and own both even though they are up 48% and 157% — or two to four times the S&P 500. Recent insider buying confirms they are buys and holds around current levels. Plus, both are cyclical names. Cardlytics helps credit card companies understand customer buying patterns for marketing purposes. Lindblad offers specialized cruise adventures to exotic locales. Both benefit from economic growth that powers more consumer spending.\n3. Do not get out of stocks\nIf you think a selloff is coming, it might be tempting to try to get out of stocks right before that, to buy back after the weakness happens. But this is a lot harder than you think. In fact, it is almost impossible to get the timing right, say market veterans.\n“You have to make two smart decisions,” says Yardeni. “You have to get out just before the correction and then you have to decide when to get back in. I don’t know of too many people that can do that consistently.”\nMarket timers often get out and don’t get back in, and they miss the next leg up. “You can get yourself into trouble trying to avoid the correction,” says Paulsen.\n4. Do not own bonds\nBond yields will be 2% or higher by the end of year. So don’t own bonds, whose prices fall when yields rise — unless you simply plan to hold to maturity to collect the income.\n5. Go with financials\nStrong economies typically make the yield curve more upward sloping, meaning that long-term interest rates on 10-year Treasuries rise a lot faster than short-term interest rates. Since banks borrow at the short end and lend at the long end, steepening yield curves help them.\nThe strong economy will also help banks release reserves and lower provisions for loan losses, both of which can boost earnings, points out Yardeni. Both JPMorgan Chase JPM,-0.07% and Bank of America BAC,+0.41% are up over twice as much as the S&P 500 since I suggested them in my stock letter last August. But they still look attractive. Recent pattern buying by smart insiders among smaller banks confirms the sector is still one to own, despite the strength over the past few quarters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361985921,"gmtCreate":1614185724563,"gmtModify":1704889347672,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meh","listText":"Meh","text":"Meh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/361985921","repostId":"1129467108","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129467108","pubTimestamp":1614164417,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129467108?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129467108","media":"Barrons","summary":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullie","content":"<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.</p><p>Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.</p><p>TheS&amp;P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p>Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”</p><p>As President Joe Biden’s administration&nbsp;champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move&nbsp;that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.</p><p>Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.</p><p>To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls&nbsp;with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.</p><p>The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.</p><p>Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.</p><p>Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.</p><p>For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.</p><p>Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&amp;P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-24 19:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129467108","content_text":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.TheS&P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”As President Joe Biden’s administration champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369819689,"gmtCreate":1614016821141,"gmtModify":1704887025670,"author":{"id":"3576113821359372","authorId":"3576113821359372","name":"Dw90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QBAN\">$Telco Cuba, Inc.(QBAN)$</a>gogogo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QBAN\">$Telco Cuba, Inc.(QBAN)$</a>gogogo","text":"$Telco Cuba, Inc.(QBAN)$gogogo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ee8f39ddba9fdff9a93118c0642ad","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369819689","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}