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2021-05-13
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金融危机以来最高的美国通胀率，意味着什么？
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23:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"金融危机以来最高的美国通胀率，意味着什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178001165","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场认为，美联储明年加息概率达到100%。","content":"<p>根据美国劳工部周三发布的数据，4月，美国CPI同比大增4.2%，超出3.6%的市场预期水平，增速创2008年9月以来新高；环比增长0.8%，亦创2008年6月以来最高。</p><p>而剔除波动性较大的食品和能源，美国4月核心CPI同比大增3%，高于市场预期的2.3%；环比增长0.92％，创1981年以来的最大增幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0549a0460fe15bf4c9848faa513e1d77\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>对金融市场而言，蔓延的高通胀担忧已让投资者宛如惊弓之鸟。</p><p>近日，5y/5y通胀互换利率攀升至2.5%，创下2018年1月以来最高，表明通胀已经不是“暂时上涨”那么简单。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15059718649befc21aa82606d1b7e99e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>根据纽约联储对消费者的调查，普通美国人对1年期和3年期通胀中值预期分别跃升至3.4%和3.1%，创下2013年9月以来的最高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/993a93784ae9213ce64769c225093fac\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>具体来看，消费者预期未来一年里汽油价格将跳涨9.18%，食品价格上涨5.79%，医疗费用飙升9.13%，大学教育价格攀升5.93%，房租价格上涨9.49%！</p><p>而刚刚发布的美国CPI数据似乎也在佐证市场担忧。芝商所FedWatch联邦基金利率期货指标显示，2022年12月，美联储加息25个基点的概率已经从数据公布前的88%升至100%，表明金融市场认为美联储100%可能在明年年底前加息。</p><p>不过，美联储对于通胀似乎并不担忧，联储主席鲍威尔坚信，任何通胀都只是暂时的。他表示，美国经济复苏正在取得切实的进展，但复苏势头并不均衡，低收入群体和少数族裔复苏速度相对更慢。</p><p>事实上，在美联储引入“平均通胀目标”后，收紧货币政策的门槛已经有所提升。从产出缺口、工资收入等自上而下决定通胀中枢的因素看，通胀尚且不足以引发美联储缩减QE。</p><p>在CPI数据公布后，美联储副主席克拉里达（Richard Clarida）发表讲话，也淡化了通货膨胀率上升的重要性，称这在很大程度上是由暂时性的力量造成的。他在周三将向美国国家商业经济学协会发表演讲的讲话稿中说：“近来通货膨胀率同比读数有所上升，并可能在今年晚些时候回落之前进一步走高。我预计通货膨胀率将在2022年和2023年恢复到我们2%的长期目标或者略微高一些。”</p><p>穆迪首席经济学家Mark Zandi表示，市场可能出现本能反应，但是美联储会从容对待CPI数据。</p><p>考虑到去年疫情爆发和经济封锁带来的基数效应，经济学家早已预计4月通胀数据会同比大幅增长。</p><p>在美国财长耶伦上周闹出暗示联储会加息但又紧急澄清的“乌龙” 后，一些美联储高官继续释信号，称近期加息和缩减QE可能性很低。</p><p>美联储理事、任内拥有联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议永久投票权的布雷纳德当地时间本周二在线上活动中认为，美联储必须展示持续的耐心，因为后新冠疫情时期的经济繁荣存在扭曲，实际上经济还远未达到联储的目标水平。</p><p>今年拥有FOMC投票权的亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克也称，美国仍然处于复苏路径上，但完成复苏还有很长的路要走。劳动力市场较新冠肺炎疫情爆发之前存在800万就业缺口。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>金融危机以来最高的美国通胀率，意味着什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n金融危机以来最高的美国通胀率，意味着什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-05-12 23:42 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>根据美国劳工部周三发布的数据，4月，美国CPI同比大增4.2%，超出3.6%的市场预期水平，增速创2008年9月以来新高；环比增长0.8%，亦创2008年6月以来最高。而剔除波动性较大的食品和能源，美国4月核心CPI同比大增3%，高于市场预期的2.3%；环比增长0.92％，创1981年以来的最大增幅。对金融市场而言，蔓延的高通胀担忧已让投资者宛如惊弓之鸟。近日，5y/5y通胀互换利率攀升至2.5%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a431f2440e202bc06b4275d2fed450d1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178001165","content_text":"根据美国劳工部周三发布的数据，4月，美国CPI同比大增4.2%，超出3.6%的市场预期水平，增速创2008年9月以来新高；环比增长0.8%，亦创2008年6月以来最高。而剔除波动性较大的食品和能源，美国4月核心CPI同比大增3%，高于市场预期的2.3%；环比增长0.92％，创1981年以来的最大增幅。对金融市场而言，蔓延的高通胀担忧已让投资者宛如惊弓之鸟。近日，5y/5y通胀互换利率攀升至2.5%，创下2018年1月以来最高，表明通胀已经不是“暂时上涨”那么简单。根据纽约联储对消费者的调查，普通美国人对1年期和3年期通胀中值预期分别跃升至3.4%和3.1%，创下2013年9月以来的最高。具体来看，消费者预期未来一年里汽油价格将跳涨9.18%，食品价格上涨5.79%，医疗费用飙升9.13%，大学教育价格攀升5.93%，房租价格上涨9.49%！而刚刚发布的美国CPI数据似乎也在佐证市场担忧。芝商所FedWatch联邦基金利率期货指标显示，2022年12月，美联储加息25个基点的概率已经从数据公布前的88%升至100%，表明金融市场认为美联储100%可能在明年年底前加息。不过，美联储对于通胀似乎并不担忧，联储主席鲍威尔坚信，任何通胀都只是暂时的。他表示，美国经济复苏正在取得切实的进展，但复苏势头并不均衡，低收入群体和少数族裔复苏速度相对更慢。事实上，在美联储引入“平均通胀目标”后，收紧货币政策的门槛已经有所提升。从产出缺口、工资收入等自上而下决定通胀中枢的因素看，通胀尚且不足以引发美联储缩减QE。在CPI数据公布后，美联储副主席克拉里达（Richard Clarida）发表讲话，也淡化了通货膨胀率上升的重要性，称这在很大程度上是由暂时性的力量造成的。他在周三将向美国国家商业经济学协会发表演讲的讲话稿中说：“近来通货膨胀率同比读数有所上升，并可能在今年晚些时候回落之前进一步走高。我预计通货膨胀率将在2022年和2023年恢复到我们2%的长期目标或者略微高一些。”穆迪首席经济学家Mark Zandi表示，市场可能出现本能反应，但是美联储会从容对待CPI数据。考虑到去年疫情爆发和经济封锁带来的基数效应，经济学家早已预计4月通胀数据会同比大幅增长。在美国财长耶伦上周闹出暗示联储会加息但又紧急澄清的“乌龙” 后，一些美联储高官继续释信号，称近期加息和缩减QE可能性很低。美联储理事、任内拥有联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议永久投票权的布雷纳德当地时间本周二在线上活动中认为，美联储必须展示持续的耐心，因为后新冠疫情时期的经济繁荣存在扭曲，实际上经济还远未达到联储的目标水平。今年拥有FOMC投票权的亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克也称，美国仍然处于复苏路径上，但完成复苏还有很长的路要走。劳动力市场较新冠肺炎疫情爆发之前存在800万就业缺口。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":176146074,"gmtCreate":1626874350498,"gmtModify":1703479675727,"author":{"id":"3576272754444417","authorId":"3576272754444417","name":"股市图书馆","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c35ecb61e2fd3160126ad66553a6c7b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576272754444417","authorIdStr":"3576272754444417"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All in","listText":"All in","text":"All 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