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点歌的人是我
2021-05-31
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@独立分析师:“五窮”沒有出現，“六絕”仍需謹慎
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近期一些專家總是宣揚“如期變盤”，滿屏的看多看好，我擔心未來會給他們當頭一棒。在金融市場，“謹慎”永遠不會錯，但“冒進”容易被打臉。消息面一直會被市場解讀並反應，解讀消息面本身就存在不確定性，所以，只有市場的技術面纔是最高效最真實的。 美國的政策面消息面，很難出現新的“利好”，近期所謂的“利好”，大多都是在抗通脹和救市而已。美股未來上漲的基本動力不會來自政策面和消息面。只能靠企業和行業的基本面和指數的技術面。參考下圖，納指和納指期貨，本輪反彈的綠框區域，其力度明顯弱於四月初至四月中旬的紅框區域。表明做多資金追漲力度明顯不足，與政策面刺激預期減弱，消息面數據無明顯超預期改善和企業行業基本面無超預期利好有很大關係。納指技術面對比圖納指期貨技術面對比圖 長期看，未來半年以上至一年，仍然預期納指會衝擊15500（之前的分析文章已經詳解），未來一兩個月內，對於14000點的歷史高點，恐怕仍然會經歷幾次“衝擊-壓制-回撤-再衝擊-突破-回踩-再突破”的複雜過程。所以，“謹慎”一直沒錯，“冒進”容易被打臉。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$納斯達克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指數主連(NQmain)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道瓊斯指數主連(YMmain)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\">$恆生指數主連(HSImain)$ </a>","listText":" 近期一些專家總是宣揚“如期變盤”，滿屏的看多看好，我擔心未來會給他們當頭一棒。在金融市場，“謹慎”永遠不會錯，但“冒進”容易被打臉。消息面一直會被市場解讀並反應，解讀消息面本身就存在不確定性，所以，只有市場的技術面纔是最高效最真實的。 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