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2021-08-25

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Meme Stocks Post Best Day Since June as GameStop, AMC Surge

2021-06-01

buy at 90 and hog it until price reaches 130 in the future

Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear

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GameStop and AMC, two of the most closely-followed meme stocks, surged 28% and 20% respectively.</p>\n<p>The afternoon rally caught most analysts by surprise as investors await insights from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s address from Jackson Hole later this week.</p>\n<p>“I was expecting some calm as we await Jackson Hole, but it looks like ‘Meme Stock Mania’ sees an opportunity here,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. “It seems this is retail jumping back in on their favorite trades after last Friday’s&nbsp;options expiration.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/610cd1c14de3d8ba3eeaf32750084199\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Trading volume also jumped, with AMC surpassing 200 million shares traded for the first time since mid-June. With GameStop, roughly 14 million shares had changed hands, more than ten-times the amount typically traded over the past five sessions.</p>\n<p>The dizzying rally marked the latest turn for a group of shares that have captivated investors throughout 2021. While the basket of meme stocks has surged more than 75% so far this year, the gains pale in comparison to the group’s top performing AMC and GameStop, which have piled up gains of roughly 2,000% and 1,000% respectively.</p>\n<p>Retail traders have sent shares of once-abandoned stocks like AMC soaring since January when fee-free trading apps like those offered from Robinhood Markets Inc. became household names. The gains made AMC and GameStop the largest companies in the Russell 2000 earlier in the year before GameStop graduated to the Russell 1000 Index.</p>\n<p>The strength spread to other retail favorites like&nbsp;Naked Brand GroupandClover Health Investments Corp., which at one point soared more than 10% each. Robinhood Markets, which itself has become a meme stock, rallied 9% Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Options trading for both AMC and GameStop stood out compared to recent trends. AMC call options with a $40 and $50 strike price were among Tuesday’s most active for equity-linked derivatives, Bloomberg data show.</p>\n<p>“Short interest seems to be a non-factor for both AMC and GameStop, so this move is just retail jumping back into call options,” Moya said.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stocks Post Best Day Since June as GameStop, AMC Surge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stocks Post Best Day Since June as GameStop, AMC Surge\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-25 09:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-24/meme-stocks-eye-best-day-since-june-as-gamestop-amc-surge><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A basket of so-called meme stocks is surging, fueled by afternoon rallies for GameStop Corp.and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.\nThe group of 37 retail-trader favorites tracked by Bloomberg soared 10% ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-24/meme-stocks-eye-best-day-since-june-as-gamestop-amc-surge\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-24/meme-stocks-eye-best-day-since-june-as-gamestop-amc-surge","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128025331","content_text":"A basket of so-called meme stocks is surging, fueled by afternoon rallies for GameStop Corp.and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.\nThe group of 37 retail-trader favorites tracked by Bloomberg soared 10% Tuesday, the most since early June, as trading volumes accelerated. GameStop and AMC, two of the most closely-followed meme stocks, surged 28% and 20% respectively.\nThe afternoon rally caught most analysts by surprise as investors await insights from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s address from Jackson Hole later this week.\n“I was expecting some calm as we await Jackson Hole, but it looks like ‘Meme Stock Mania’ sees an opportunity here,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. “It seems this is retail jumping back in on their favorite trades after last Friday’s options expiration.”\n\nTrading volume also jumped, with AMC surpassing 200 million shares traded for the first time since mid-June. With GameStop, roughly 14 million shares had changed hands, more than ten-times the amount typically traded over the past five sessions.\nThe dizzying rally marked the latest turn for a group of shares that have captivated investors throughout 2021. While the basket of meme stocks has surged more than 75% so far this year, the gains pale in comparison to the group’s top performing AMC and GameStop, which have piled up gains of roughly 2,000% and 1,000% respectively.\nRetail traders have sent shares of once-abandoned stocks like AMC soaring since January when fee-free trading apps like those offered from Robinhood Markets Inc. became household names. The gains made AMC and GameStop the largest companies in the Russell 2000 earlier in the year before GameStop graduated to the Russell 1000 Index.\nThe strength spread to other retail favorites like Naked Brand GroupandClover Health Investments Corp., which at one point soared more than 10% each. Robinhood Markets, which itself has become a meme stock, rallied 9% Tuesday.\nOptions trading for both AMC and GameStop stood out compared to recent trends. AMC call options with a $40 and $50 strike price were among Tuesday’s most active for equity-linked derivatives, Bloomberg data show.\n“Short interest seems to be a non-factor for both AMC and GameStop, so this move is just retail jumping back into call options,” Moya said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119439716,"gmtCreate":1622557867135,"gmtModify":1704186327486,"author":{"id":"3576537651590308","authorId":"3576537651590308","name":"Shixuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"buy at 90 and hog it until price reaches 130 in the future&nbsp;","listText":"buy at 90 and hog it until price reaches 130 in the future&nbsp;","text":"buy at 90 and hog it until price reaches 130 in the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119439716","repostId":"1107522849","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?</p>\n<p>Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.</p>\n<p>The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\"><span>Figure 1: Wall Street bear.</span></p>\n<p><b>“12S cycle” coming up?</b></p>\n<p>New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.</p>\n<p>Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.</p>\n<p>In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Plugging some numbers</b></p>\n<p>New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.</p>\n<p>If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.</p>\n<p>Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Maven’s opinion</b></p>\n<p>One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\"><span>Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.</span></p>\n<p>But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.</p>\n<p>Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li>\n <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-01 19:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":119439716,"gmtCreate":1622557867135,"gmtModify":1704186327486,"author":{"id":"3576537651590308","authorId":"3576537651590308","name":"Shixuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"buy at 90 and hog it until price reaches 130 in the future&nbsp;","listText":"buy at 90 and hog it until price reaches 130 in the future&nbsp;","text":"buy at 90 and hog it until price reaches 130 in the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119439716","repostId":"1107522849","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?</p>\n<p>Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.</p>\n<p>The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\"><span>Figure 1: Wall Street bear.</span></p>\n<p><b>“12S cycle” coming up?</b></p>\n<p>New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.</p>\n<p>Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.</p>\n<p>In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Plugging some numbers</b></p>\n<p>New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.</p>\n<p>If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.</p>\n<p>Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Maven’s opinion</b></p>\n<p>One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\"><span>Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.</span></p>\n<p>But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.</p>\n<p>Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li>\n <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-01 19:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837845240,"gmtCreate":1629878601180,"gmtModify":1676530159896,"author":{"id":"3576537651590308","authorId":"3576537651590308","name":"Shixuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837845240","repostId":"1128025331","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}