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10-26

rubbish report. is this the same person who wsa previusly bullish ? suddenly become bearish now

Alibaba: Sell Before It's Too Late (Downgrade)

10-24

Put your money where your mouth is......short DJT if you think it's going to tank.

Trump Media & Technology Group: The Wrong Way To Play The 'Trump Trade'

10-11

How is Kamala even leading in the presidential race ? A trump win will send DJT to the moon .

Trump Media & Technology Shares Rise Pre-Bell as Donald Trump Edges Higher in Polls

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A few months later, the macro environment for Chinese stocks worsened, and the company canceled an IPO of its cloud division, which should’ve unlocked significant value after becoming a separate public entity. This made Alibaba’s shares underperform for over a year, and our thesis didn’t play out.</p><p>The company’s shares rallied only recently as a result of the announcement of the stimulus package by the Chinese government that’s aimed at growing the Chinese economy. Most of the Chinese stocks along with Alibaba rallied in late September and early October thanks to that announcement. However, the rally is already losing its momentum, and we believe that at the current price, it’s smart to sell Alibaba’s stock since it doesn’t have any other major growth catalysts that could help its stock continue to increase in value.</p><h2 id=\"id_732002234\">Why The Rally Is Coming To An End</h2><p>As we write his article, Alibaba’s shares are already tumbling after reaching a 52-week-high price at the beginning of October, as the rally is losing its momentum. This is happening not only to Alibaba but to other Chinese stocks as well since there’s skepticism about the announced stimulus package. The IMF recently has even lowered China’s GDP growth rate as systemic issues remain.</p><p>Alibaba’s business has been directly impacted by the weaker growth of China’s economy. Alibaba’s latest earnings report for Q1 showed that its core eCommerce business, which is reported under the <em>Total</em> <em>Taobao and Tmall Group</em> segment, has experienced a 1% Y/Y decline in revenues to $15.6 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA was also down 1% Y/Y to $6.7 billion. We might see a further underperformance of the eCommerce business since consumer confidence in China is currently close to its historically low levels and the consumer price growth in September was weaker than expected.</p><p>The cloud business, which, we hoped, would become a separate entity a year ago, is also underperforming against its international competitors. Its revenue in Q2 was up only 6% Y/Y to $3.65 billion. Its international competitors, like Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG)(GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN), are growing at a much better double-digit rate even though their initial base for comparison is much higher in comparison to Alibaba. Even some Chinese businesses are turning to Western cloud providers, which can run the code on more advanced AI chips.</p><p>One of the main reasons why Alibaba’s overall sales were up last quarter was thanks to the better growth of the international business, which is reported under the <em>Total Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group</em> segment in the earnings report. The international sales were up 32% Y/Y last quarter to $4.03 billion, which helped the company improve its overall top-line performance. But since the escalation of the Sino-American trade war is likely a matter of time, there’s no guarantee that the international business will be able to continue to grow at such a big rate in the future.</p><p>We believe that Alibaba’s reliance primarily on external developments and the exposure of its stock to developments that are outside of the business’s control is a major red flag. Unlike its Western eCommerce competitors that continue to scale their businesses aggressively, Alibaba is expected to grow its sales and earnings only at a single-digit rate. This makes it hard to call it a growth stock with significant upside potential, especially considering its recent performance and exposure to external developments. Not only did its stock increase in value aggressively in the last month mostly due to China’s actions, but it also has been depreciating in the last couple of weeks as the market questions the announced actions, while Alibaba has no internal catalysts to keep the momentum going.</p><h2 id=\"id_3506123574\">Better Future Still Possible?</h2><p>There’s still a possibility that China’s stimulus package will be beneficial to China’s economy and Alibaba in particular over the long term. The proposed reduced mortgage rates could revive the activity in the housing market, while the proposed stock buybacks could stabilize market prices for Chinese equities.</p><p>The growth of retail sales in China in September by 3.2% against the expectations of 2.5% could also lead to the improvement of consumer sentiment and boost Alibaba’s sales in Q2. The earnings report is expected to come out next month, as the potential improvement of the eCommerce business and a sales beat could reignite the investors’ confidence.</p><p>Finally, the overall improvement of the macro environment and the forecasted global growth rate of 3.2% in 2024 and 2025 could help Alibaba’s international business to perform well despite the geopolitical risks.</p><h2 id=\"id_1019124111\">The Real Value of Alibaba</h2><p>Considering all the upsides and downsides of Alibaba, we wanted to find out what is the real value of the company. Below are valuation tables with our calculations.</p><p>Our model covers the period of the next five years. In the model, we use a tax rate of 25%. In 2021, some of Alibaba’s businesses lost the preferential tax treatment and the management warned of a period of higher taxes ahead. The current standard corporate rate in China is 25%, and we could see Beijing doing a tax reform in the future. Considering this, we believe that applying a 25% tax rate when forecasting Alibaba’s performance makes sense.</p><p>We created this model when Alibaba was trading at $96.32 per share and used the cash and long-term debt data from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate in our valuation model is 3%, which is the rate that’s typically used when valuing a major public company.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 8.56%. We found it by calculating Alibaba’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. For calculating the after-tax cost of debt, we used Alibaba’s TTM data. For calculating the cost of equity, we used a risk-free rate of 4.2%, a beta of 1.51, and a market return rate of 7.69%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fadd39c424da03a0f964a00b6dd8d23\" alt=\"Alibaba’s Valuation Model\" title=\"Alibaba’s Valuation Model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>Alibaba’s Valuation Model</span></p><p></p><p>In the forecast table below, we assume a sales growth rate of 7.8% in the current fiscal year. The sales growth rate assumptions are mostly similar to the current consensus. The CapEx for the following years is increased in our model. In Q1, Alibaba’s CapEx was $1.66 billion and the management said that it’s expecting a similar level of investments in CapEx in the next few quarters. Other assumptions are similar to Alibaba’s historical performance.</p><p>After figuring out the cumulative present value of FCF based on the numbers from the forecast table, we applied the discount rate and the terminal growth rate to get the terminal value, the present value of the terminal value, and the enterprise value, which is $201.15 billion in our case. We then added the current cash reserves to the enterprise value and subtracted long-term debt to find out the equity value, which in our case is $238.42 billion. We then divided the equity value by the number of outstanding shares and found out that Alibaba’s intrinsic value is $97.34 per share, which indicates a 1% upside.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/03419399e3ed477681a2d18d5255866d\" alt=\"Alibaba’s Valuation Model\" title=\"Alibaba’s Valuation Model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\"/><span>Alibaba’s Valuation Model</span></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_467275247\">Why We Still Believe That Alibaba Is A SELL</h2><p>While our model shows that Alibaba’s stock represents a minimal upside, we believe that the company is a SELL right now. The only reason why its shares were able to rally is because there was a macro catalyst that boosted the share prices of all major Chinese companies that are trading on American exchanges. Without it, Alibaba would’ve probably traded around $70 - $80 per share today, like it was more than a month ago. This is because Alibaba, in our opinion, has no direct major catalysts that could improve the performance of its stock.</p><p>In the current environment, it seems that being fundamentally undervalued is not enough to drive the stock price higher. Alibaba has been undervalued solely on fundamentals for a long time, but that didn’t help its shares to increase in value until very recently for reasons beyond the company’s control. We also see that the rally is already losing its momentum, the shares are now relatively far away from their 52-week highs that were achieved at the beginning of October, and the price action suggests that a further pullback might be on the way.</p><p>As for the bigger picture, until the Sino-American relations improve, we’re unlikely to see a revived interest in Chinese stocks from Western investors. That is why we believe that Alibaba is not investable right now despite trading close to its intrinsic value, and give its stock a rating of SELL.</p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Sell Before It's Too Late (Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Sell Before It's Too Late (Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-26 13:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729537-alibaba-shares-sell-before-its-too-late><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba’s shares are falling after the market questions the effectiveness of China’s stimulus package.The overexposure of Alibaba and its stock to developments that are outside of the company’s...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729537-alibaba-shares-sell-before-its-too-late\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729537-alibaba-shares-sell-before-its-too-late","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1118394649","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba’s shares are falling after the market questions the effectiveness of China’s stimulus package.The overexposure of Alibaba and its stock to developments that are outside of the company’s control is a major red flag.In the current environment, Alibaba is a SELL for us.In the middle of 2023, we said that the market is underestimating the benefits of Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) spin-off that was announced earlier that year. A few months later, the macro environment for Chinese stocks worsened, and the company canceled an IPO of its cloud division, which should’ve unlocked significant value after becoming a separate public entity. This made Alibaba’s shares underperform for over a year, and our thesis didn’t play out.The company’s shares rallied only recently as a result of the announcement of the stimulus package by the Chinese government that’s aimed at growing the Chinese economy. Most of the Chinese stocks along with Alibaba rallied in late September and early October thanks to that announcement. However, the rally is already losing its momentum, and we believe that at the current price, it’s smart to sell Alibaba’s stock since it doesn’t have any other major growth catalysts that could help its stock continue to increase in value.Why The Rally Is Coming To An EndAs we write his article, Alibaba’s shares are already tumbling after reaching a 52-week-high price at the beginning of October, as the rally is losing its momentum. This is happening not only to Alibaba but to other Chinese stocks as well since there’s skepticism about the announced stimulus package. The IMF recently has even lowered China’s GDP growth rate as systemic issues remain.Alibaba’s business has been directly impacted by the weaker growth of China’s economy. Alibaba’s latest earnings report for Q1 showed that its core eCommerce business, which is reported under the Total Taobao and Tmall Group segment, has experienced a 1% Y/Y decline in revenues to $15.6 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA was also down 1% Y/Y to $6.7 billion. We might see a further underperformance of the eCommerce business since consumer confidence in China is currently close to its historically low levels and the consumer price growth in September was weaker than expected.The cloud business, which, we hoped, would become a separate entity a year ago, is also underperforming against its international competitors. Its revenue in Q2 was up only 6% Y/Y to $3.65 billion. Its international competitors, like Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG)(GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN), are growing at a much better double-digit rate even though their initial base for comparison is much higher in comparison to Alibaba. Even some Chinese businesses are turning to Western cloud providers, which can run the code on more advanced AI chips.One of the main reasons why Alibaba’s overall sales were up last quarter was thanks to the better growth of the international business, which is reported under the Total Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment in the earnings report. The international sales were up 32% Y/Y last quarter to $4.03 billion, which helped the company improve its overall top-line performance. But since the escalation of the Sino-American trade war is likely a matter of time, there’s no guarantee that the international business will be able to continue to grow at such a big rate in the future.We believe that Alibaba’s reliance primarily on external developments and the exposure of its stock to developments that are outside of the business’s control is a major red flag. Unlike its Western eCommerce competitors that continue to scale their businesses aggressively, Alibaba is expected to grow its sales and earnings only at a single-digit rate. This makes it hard to call it a growth stock with significant upside potential, especially considering its recent performance and exposure to external developments. Not only did its stock increase in value aggressively in the last month mostly due to China’s actions, but it also has been depreciating in the last couple of weeks as the market questions the announced actions, while Alibaba has no internal catalysts to keep the momentum going.Better Future Still Possible?There’s still a possibility that China’s stimulus package will be beneficial to China’s economy and Alibaba in particular over the long term. The proposed reduced mortgage rates could revive the activity in the housing market, while the proposed stock buybacks could stabilize market prices for Chinese equities.The growth of retail sales in China in September by 3.2% against the expectations of 2.5% could also lead to the improvement of consumer sentiment and boost Alibaba’s sales in Q2. The earnings report is expected to come out next month, as the potential improvement of the eCommerce business and a sales beat could reignite the investors’ confidence.Finally, the overall improvement of the macro environment and the forecasted global growth rate of 3.2% in 2024 and 2025 could help Alibaba’s international business to perform well despite the geopolitical risks.The Real Value of AlibabaConsidering all the upsides and downsides of Alibaba, we wanted to find out what is the real value of the company. Below are valuation tables with our calculations.Our model covers the period of the next five years. In the model, we use a tax rate of 25%. In 2021, some of Alibaba’s businesses lost the preferential tax treatment and the management warned of a period of higher taxes ahead. The current standard corporate rate in China is 25%, and we could see Beijing doing a tax reform in the future. Considering this, we believe that applying a 25% tax rate when forecasting Alibaba’s performance makes sense.We created this model when Alibaba was trading at $96.32 per share and used the cash and long-term debt data from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate in our valuation model is 3%, which is the rate that’s typically used when valuing a major public company.The discount rate in our valuation model is 8.56%. We found it by calculating Alibaba’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. For calculating the after-tax cost of debt, we used Alibaba’s TTM data. For calculating the cost of equity, we used a risk-free rate of 4.2%, a beta of 1.51, and a market return rate of 7.69%.Alibaba’s Valuation ModelIn the forecast table below, we assume a sales growth rate of 7.8% in the current fiscal year. The sales growth rate assumptions are mostly similar to the current consensus. The CapEx for the following years is increased in our model. In Q1, Alibaba’s CapEx was $1.66 billion and the management said that it’s expecting a similar level of investments in CapEx in the next few quarters. Other assumptions are similar to Alibaba’s historical performance.After figuring out the cumulative present value of FCF based on the numbers from the forecast table, we applied the discount rate and the terminal growth rate to get the terminal value, the present value of the terminal value, and the enterprise value, which is $201.15 billion in our case. We then added the current cash reserves to the enterprise value and subtracted long-term debt to find out the equity value, which in our case is $238.42 billion. We then divided the equity value by the number of outstanding shares and found out that Alibaba’s intrinsic value is $97.34 per share, which indicates a 1% upside.Alibaba’s Valuation ModelWhy We Still Believe That Alibaba Is A SELLWhile our model shows that Alibaba’s stock represents a minimal upside, we believe that the company is a SELL right now. The only reason why its shares were able to rally is because there was a macro catalyst that boosted the share prices of all major Chinese companies that are trading on American exchanges. Without it, Alibaba would’ve probably traded around $70 - $80 per share today, like it was more than a month ago. This is because Alibaba, in our opinion, has no direct major catalysts that could improve the performance of its stock.In the current environment, it seems that being fundamentally undervalued is not enough to drive the stock price higher. Alibaba has been undervalued solely on fundamentals for a long time, but that didn’t help its shares to increase in value until very recently for reasons beyond the company’s control. We also see that the rally is already losing its momentum, the shares are now relatively far away from their 52-week highs that were achieved at the beginning of October, and the price action suggests that a further pullback might be on the way.As for the bigger picture, until the Sino-American relations improve, we’re unlikely to see a revived interest in Chinese stocks from Western investors. That is why we believe that Alibaba is not investable right now despite trading close to its intrinsic value, and give its stock a rating of SELL.Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363387878809800,"gmtCreate":1729744286577,"gmtModify":1729747928141,"author":{"id":"3576573367842862","authorId":"3576573367842862","name":"winwinwin543","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576573367842862","authorIdStr":"3576573367842862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Put your money where your mouth is......short DJT if you think it's going to tank.","listText":"Put your money where your mouth is......short DJT if you think it's going to tank.","text":"Put your money where your mouth is......short DJT if you think it's going to tank.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363387878809800","repostId":"2477851677","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477851677","pubTimestamp":1729717649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477851677?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-24 05:07","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Trump Media & Technology Group: The Wrong Way To Play The 'Trump Trade'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477851677","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Financial markets and betting odds are increasingly pricing in a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. election, influencing stocks and cryptocurrencies.Despite the market's optimism, I argue that","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Financial markets and betting odds are increasingly pricing in a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. election, influencing stocks and cryptocurrencies.</li><li>Despite the market's optimism, I argue that Trump Media &amp; Technology Group's valuation is unsustainable and will likely fail to meet expectations even if Trump wins.</li><li>My analysis focuses on the company's non-existent revenue growth and competition from platforms like X, affecting Truth Social's demand.</li><li>DJT longs should take the money and run.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1025px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>P. Kijsanayothin</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>With just two weeks remaining until the general election in the United States (as of article submission), financial markets appear to be pricing in a Donald Trump win in November. This isn't just my own personal opinion, it's one widely shared by<span> the market if legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller has an accurate read on the environment. This is what Druckenmiller told </span>Bloomberg on October 16th<span>:</span></p> <blockquote><p>I must say, in the last twelve days the market, and the inside of the market, is very convinced that Trump is going to win. You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto, you can even see it in DJT.</p></blockquote> <p>His last part of that comment is a reference to the ticker for Trump Media &amp; Technology Group Corp. (<span>NASDAQ:DJT</span>). Another signal that Druckenmiller left out of his market tea-leaf assessment is the action that can currently be seen in the betting markets. Of which, the largest by pure betting volume is Polymarket:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"326\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/22/50832021-17296081953893116.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>US Election Market as of 10/22/24 (Polymarket)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>As of article submission, Polymarket bettors are currently pricing a Trump win at 64 cents to make a dollar - this is the highest expectation for the former President winning the office again since current President Joe Biden withdrew from re-election this past summer. After two months of a very tight race, something changed in markets in early October when Donald Trump's Polymarket shares broke out above 54 cents. And we're not just seeing that sentiment change reflected in betting markets, we're also seeing it in things like stocks and Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) as Druckenmiller mentioned:</p> <p><figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/22/saupload_8712bbeec8ab7cdb7d34d13f5eba2a1c.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since October 7, the S&amp;P is up nearly 3%, Bitcoin is up 7%, and shares of DJT are up <em>over 70%</em>. From where I sit, there is a clear 'Trump Trade' taking place as the market begins to price in a Donald Trump victory in the November election. Despite its recent surge in price, I think going long DJT shares is the wrong way to play that election result if it does indeed come to fruition.</p> <p>I want to be very clear about this; nothing in this piece is intended to make a political statement either way about former President Trump. This post is purely about whether or not the investment thesis for DJT stock improves in the event of a prospective Trump election win. Whether the former President wins next month or not, I believe Trump Media &amp; Technology Group will likely fail to live up to the company's lofty valuation.</p> <h2>Trump Media &amp; Technology Group's Business</h2> <p>The flagship product for DJT shareholders is Truth Social. Founded in late 2021, Truth Social spawned in response to former President Trump's ban from mainstream social media platforms like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms, Inc.</a>'s (META) Facebook and Twitter (will be referred to as X from here). Marketed as a 'free speech' alternative to the legacy social platforms, Truth Social is majority-owned by Trump himself and has been the primary social media platform for the former President since its launch. This seems to be the only real bull case for Truth Social because the revenue growth story simply hasn't manifested over the last two years.</p> <p><figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/22/saupload_280a12ba5215c97b856061ce9165debc.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure></p> <p>Despite the $6.1 billion market valuation presently represented by the company's stock, Trump Media &amp; Technology Group has only managed to generate $1.6 million in top line revenue year to date. Perhaps, more concerning is the year-over-year declines in quarterly revenue each of the last three quarters. Unsurprisingly as it is such a young company, Trump Media &amp; Technology Group has never operated a profitable quarter, and SG&amp;A expenses in the first half of 2024 eclipsed $80 million. I suspect the biggest issue facing Truth Social today is the market landscape has changed dramatically since Elon Musk entered the social media arena as a platform owner rather than just a platform user.</p> <h2>X Has Killed Demand For Alternatives</h2> <p>You are not going to get any argument from me that there was a very clear market need for viable alternatives to social media platforms like X, Meta Platforms, Inc.'s (META) Facebook, and Alphabet Inc.'s (GOOG) (GOOGL) YouTube during the COVID era. I've shared a similar sentiment in recent work covering <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUM\">Rumble Inc.</a> (RUM) for Seeking Alpha. But one of the biggest reasons why I'm not long Rumble as a future growth speculation is the same reason I don't think investments in Trump Media &amp; Technology will bear much fruit; Elon Musk has turned X into a platform that is friendlier to viewpoints that would be seen as opposition to what might be considered 'politically appropriate.' Donald Trump's account on X has even been reinstated under Musk's ownership and Trump has indeed been using the platform again:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"395\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/22/50832021-17296136980352368.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>@RealDonaldTrump Usage Metrics (Social Blade)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>As I see it, Truth Social is likely already a dead platform due to the switching cost that comes with starting over as a social media user. Since most of these platforms are walled gardens, a user can't take their followers with them from platform to platform. One has to rely on followers switching platforms together to maintain the same community, and this generally never happens. Even when people do switch together, posting and engagement on the insurgent platform generally underwhelm fairly quickly because the reach is so much smaller.</p> <p>Consider the difference in monthly traffic between X and a few insurgent 'free speech' alternative platforms:</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <th>Monthly Visits (millions)</th> <th>June</th> <th>July</th> <th>August</th> </tr> <tr> <td>X</td> <td>4,420</td> <td>4,350</td> <td>4,070</td> </tr> <tr> <td><em>Truth Social</em></td> <td><em>16.1</em></td> <td><em>17.1</em></td> <td><em>13.4</em></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gab</td> <td>13.8</td> <td>12.9</td> <td>12.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gettr</td> <td>1.4</td> <td>1.4</td> <td>1.1</td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>Source: Semrush</p> <p>In the table above, we're looking at monthly traffic data for notable alternative social media platforms that were positioned as 'free speech' alternatives to X before Elon Musk bought the company. It's a bit unfair to even compare these platforms with X today because even if we rolled all of their traffic together it still makes up less than 1% of the total traffic that X gets in a typical month. When we strip out X and focus on Truth Social against just Gab and Gettr, Truth Social is indeed getting more traffic. But it also exhibited a declining share of even just those three fledgling alternative platforms in August:</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <th>Monthly Visits (millions)</th> <th>June</th> <th>July</th> <th>August</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Truth Social</td> <td>16.07</td> <td>17.05</td> <td>13.42</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gab</td> <td>13.8</td> <td>12.88</td> <td>12.26</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gettr</td> <td>1.39</td> <td>1.36</td> <td>1.14</td> </tr> <tr> <td><em>Truth Share</em></td> <td><em>51.41%</em></td> <td><em>54.49%</em></td> <td><em>50.04%</em></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>Source: Semrush</p> <p>Again, these are small traffic numbers compared to X. But I think it hammers home the point that users of legacy platforms rarely leave. Truth Social is further handicapped here because half the social-media-using US population is unlikely to ever consider joining Truth Social due to its ties to Donald Trump. The other half already have a friendlier platform in X with hundreds of millions more users. This is not a favorable setup for Truth Social.</p> <h2>Company Valuation</h2> <p>From a valuation standpoint, the only number that really matters is the price-to-tangible book, in my opinion. The company owns a social platform that isn't growing and may not really need to exist. There is no meaningful revenue to speak of, and it's challenging to even claim this is a \"growth stock\" with declining sales for three straight quarters. Today, the company is trading at over 1,100x sales. This is obviously a preposterous number and not the right way to value equity. The good thing for DJT shareholders is there is no real debt to speak of and $344 million in cash and equivalents. At 194.7 million shares outstanding, that gives DJT shares a tangible book value of about $1.78 per share. That's about what I'd pay for it, personally.</p> <h2>Upside Risks</h2> <p>Primary risks to the bear thesis for DJT would be if Truth Social or Truth+ become the primary methods of content distribution for Donald Trump if he were to once again be POTUS. In this scenario, I do think it would be logical to see a spike in users, engagement, and revenue derived from Trump Media-owned properties. However, this is not a likely outcome in my assessment because of both the obvious conflict of interest and the likelihood that these platforms would still only generate a fraction of the reach X - which, again, is now a platform that is far friendlier to Trump under Elon Musk's ownership.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"355\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/23/50832021-17296845842336671.png\" width=\"640\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>DJT Daily Chart (TrendSpider)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The more pressing concern for any prospective short position would be the meme-like nature of DJT stock. It's an equity that is starting to generate more sustained interest from retail traders. A traditional investor might scoff at the $6 billion valuation on a couple of million dollars in annual revenue. The perpetual fiat currency debasement scheme that we're currently in has led to a financially nihilistic environment that has produced <em>two</em> dog-themed cryptocurrencies with fully diluted valuations north of $10 billion. This is largely why I would not advise shorting DJT even though the valuation may be rich.</p> <h2>Investor Takeaways</h2> <p>There has been plenty already said about the DJT share lock-up and the possibility that Donald Trump could begin selling out of his majority position in the company. To this point, that has not yet manifested, and lock-up expiration has actually been a 'sell the rumor, buy the news' event. Regardless of whether we see DJT insider sales begin to happen either this quarter or later, it is my personal view that DJT shareholders are going to get wrecked from here purely because of the valuation being assigned to the shares. Equity holders have a claim on a little under $2 per share in tangible value via DJT.</p> <div></div> <p>As I see it, the business is not growing and is unlikely to do so in large part because the demand for an alternative platform isn't nearly as robust as it was three years ago, before Elon Musk bought X. Perhaps, there will again be a time when alternative platforms are viewed as necessary, but in the event that happens, Truth Social will suffer the same issues that have plagued other alternatives in the past; fragmentation, user switching cost, and lack of advertisers. Rumble is experiencing these same problems. Thus, I see no real boost from Truth+ as a long-term revenue driver here either. At $34 per share for DJT, longs should take the money and run.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trump Media & Technology Group: The Wrong Way To Play The 'Trump Trade'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrump Media & Technology Group: The Wrong Way To Play The 'Trump Trade'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-24 05:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4728783-trump-media-and-technology-group-the-wrong-way-to-play-the-trump-trade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Financial markets and betting odds are increasingly pricing in a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. election, influencing stocks and cryptocurrencies.Despite the market's optimism, I argue that...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4728783-trump-media-and-technology-group-the-wrong-way-to-play-the-trump-trade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","DJT":"特朗普媒体科技集团","BK4516":"特朗普概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4728783-trump-media-and-technology-group-the-wrong-way-to-play-the-trump-trade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2477851677","content_text":"Financial markets and betting odds are increasingly pricing in a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. election, influencing stocks and cryptocurrencies.Despite the market's optimism, I argue that Trump Media & Technology Group's valuation is unsustainable and will likely fail to meet expectations even if Trump wins.My analysis focuses on the company's non-existent revenue growth and competition from platforms like X, affecting Truth Social's demand.DJT longs should take the money and run.P. Kijsanayothin With just two weeks remaining until the general election in the United States (as of article submission), financial markets appear to be pricing in a Donald Trump win in November. This isn't just my own personal opinion, it's one widely shared by the market if legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller has an accurate read on the environment. This is what Druckenmiller told Bloomberg on October 16th: I must say, in the last twelve days the market, and the inside of the market, is very convinced that Trump is going to win. You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto, you can even see it in DJT. His last part of that comment is a reference to the ticker for Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ:DJT). Another signal that Druckenmiller left out of his market tea-leaf assessment is the action that can currently be seen in the betting markets. Of which, the largest by pure betting volume is Polymarket: US Election Market as of 10/22/24 (Polymarket) As of article submission, Polymarket bettors are currently pricing a Trump win at 64 cents to make a dollar - this is the highest expectation for the former President winning the office again since current President Joe Biden withdrew from re-election this past summer. After two months of a very tight race, something changed in markets in early October when Donald Trump's Polymarket shares broke out above 54 cents. And we're not just seeing that sentiment change reflected in betting markets, we're also seeing it in things like stocks and Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) as Druckenmiller mentioned: Data by YCharts Since October 7, the S&P is up nearly 3%, Bitcoin is up 7%, and shares of DJT are up over 70%. From where I sit, there is a clear 'Trump Trade' taking place as the market begins to price in a Donald Trump victory in the November election. Despite its recent surge in price, I think going long DJT shares is the wrong way to play that election result if it does indeed come to fruition. I want to be very clear about this; nothing in this piece is intended to make a political statement either way about former President Trump. This post is purely about whether or not the investment thesis for DJT stock improves in the event of a prospective Trump election win. Whether the former President wins next month or not, I believe Trump Media & Technology Group will likely fail to live up to the company's lofty valuation. Trump Media & Technology Group's Business The flagship product for DJT shareholders is Truth Social. Founded in late 2021, Truth Social spawned in response to former President Trump's ban from mainstream social media platforms like Meta Platforms, Inc.'s (META) Facebook and Twitter (will be referred to as X from here). Marketed as a 'free speech' alternative to the legacy social platforms, Truth Social is majority-owned by Trump himself and has been the primary social media platform for the former President since its launch. This seems to be the only real bull case for Truth Social because the revenue growth story simply hasn't manifested over the last two years. Data by YCharts Despite the $6.1 billion market valuation presently represented by the company's stock, Trump Media & Technology Group has only managed to generate $1.6 million in top line revenue year to date. Perhaps, more concerning is the year-over-year declines in quarterly revenue each of the last three quarters. Unsurprisingly as it is such a young company, Trump Media & Technology Group has never operated a profitable quarter, and SG&A expenses in the first half of 2024 eclipsed $80 million. I suspect the biggest issue facing Truth Social today is the market landscape has changed dramatically since Elon Musk entered the social media arena as a platform owner rather than just a platform user. X Has Killed Demand For Alternatives You are not going to get any argument from me that there was a very clear market need for viable alternatives to social media platforms like X, Meta Platforms, Inc.'s (META) Facebook, and Alphabet Inc.'s (GOOG) (GOOGL) YouTube during the COVID era. I've shared a similar sentiment in recent work covering Rumble Inc. (RUM) for Seeking Alpha. But one of the biggest reasons why I'm not long Rumble as a future growth speculation is the same reason I don't think investments in Trump Media & Technology will bear much fruit; Elon Musk has turned X into a platform that is friendlier to viewpoints that would be seen as opposition to what might be considered 'politically appropriate.' Donald Trump's account on X has even been reinstated under Musk's ownership and Trump has indeed been using the platform again: @RealDonaldTrump Usage Metrics (Social Blade) As I see it, Truth Social is likely already a dead platform due to the switching cost that comes with starting over as a social media user. Since most of these platforms are walled gardens, a user can't take their followers with them from platform to platform. One has to rely on followers switching platforms together to maintain the same community, and this generally never happens. Even when people do switch together, posting and engagement on the insurgent platform generally underwhelm fairly quickly because the reach is so much smaller. Consider the difference in monthly traffic between X and a few insurgent 'free speech' alternative platforms:         Monthly Visits (millions) June July August   X 4,420 4,350 4,070   Truth Social 16.1 17.1 13.4   Gab 13.8 12.9 12.3   Gettr 1.4 1.4 1.1   Click to enlarge Source: Semrush In the table above, we're looking at monthly traffic data for notable alternative social media platforms that were positioned as 'free speech' alternatives to X before Elon Musk bought the company. It's a bit unfair to even compare these platforms with X today because even if we rolled all of their traffic together it still makes up less than 1% of the total traffic that X gets in a typical month. When we strip out X and focus on Truth Social against just Gab and Gettr, Truth Social is indeed getting more traffic. But it also exhibited a declining share of even just those three fledgling alternative platforms in August:         Monthly Visits (millions) June July August   Truth Social 16.07 17.05 13.42   Gab 13.8 12.88 12.26   Gettr 1.39 1.36 1.14   Truth Share 51.41% 54.49% 50.04%   Click to enlarge Source: Semrush Again, these are small traffic numbers compared to X. But I think it hammers home the point that users of legacy platforms rarely leave. Truth Social is further handicapped here because half the social-media-using US population is unlikely to ever consider joining Truth Social due to its ties to Donald Trump. The other half already have a friendlier platform in X with hundreds of millions more users. This is not a favorable setup for Truth Social. Company Valuation From a valuation standpoint, the only number that really matters is the price-to-tangible book, in my opinion. The company owns a social platform that isn't growing and may not really need to exist. There is no meaningful revenue to speak of, and it's challenging to even claim this is a \"growth stock\" with declining sales for three straight quarters. Today, the company is trading at over 1,100x sales. This is obviously a preposterous number and not the right way to value equity. The good thing for DJT shareholders is there is no real debt to speak of and $344 million in cash and equivalents. At 194.7 million shares outstanding, that gives DJT shares a tangible book value of about $1.78 per share. That's about what I'd pay for it, personally. Upside Risks Primary risks to the bear thesis for DJT would be if Truth Social or Truth+ become the primary methods of content distribution for Donald Trump if he were to once again be POTUS. In this scenario, I do think it would be logical to see a spike in users, engagement, and revenue derived from Trump Media-owned properties. However, this is not a likely outcome in my assessment because of both the obvious conflict of interest and the likelihood that these platforms would still only generate a fraction of the reach X - which, again, is now a platform that is far friendlier to Trump under Elon Musk's ownership. DJT Daily Chart (TrendSpider) The more pressing concern for any prospective short position would be the meme-like nature of DJT stock. It's an equity that is starting to generate more sustained interest from retail traders. A traditional investor might scoff at the $6 billion valuation on a couple of million dollars in annual revenue. The perpetual fiat currency debasement scheme that we're currently in has led to a financially nihilistic environment that has produced two dog-themed cryptocurrencies with fully diluted valuations north of $10 billion. This is largely why I would not advise shorting DJT even though the valuation may be rich. Investor Takeaways There has been plenty already said about the DJT share lock-up and the possibility that Donald Trump could begin selling out of his majority position in the company. To this point, that has not yet manifested, and lock-up expiration has actually been a 'sell the rumor, buy the news' event. Regardless of whether we see DJT insider sales begin to happen either this quarter or later, it is my personal view that DJT shareholders are going to get wrecked from here purely because of the valuation being assigned to the shares. Equity holders have a claim on a little under $2 per share in tangible value via DJT.  As I see it, the business is not growing and is unlikely to do so in large part because the demand for an alternative platform isn't nearly as robust as it was three years ago, before Elon Musk bought X. Perhaps, there will again be a time when alternative platforms are viewed as necessary, but in the event that happens, Truth Social will suffer the same issues that have plagued other alternatives in the past; fragmentation, user switching cost, and lack of advertisers. Rumble is experiencing these same problems. Thus, I see no real boost from Truth+ as a long-term revenue driver here either. At $34 per share for DJT, longs should take the money and run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358977895616712,"gmtCreate":1728648992073,"gmtModify":1728651878467,"author":{"id":"3576573367842862","authorId":"3576573367842862","name":"winwinwin543","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576573367842862","authorIdStr":"3576573367842862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How is Kamala even leading in the presidential race ? A trump win will send DJT to the moon .","listText":"How is Kamala even leading in the presidential race ? A trump win will send DJT to the moon .","text":"How is Kamala even leading in the presidential race ? A trump win will send DJT to the moon .","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358977895616712","repostId":"2474098955","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2474098955","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The most recognized names in North America, Europe and Asia rely on MT Newswires to power their applications. Better news, better service, better price.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"MT Newswires Live","id":"1092851196","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e"},"pubTimestamp":1728648106,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2474098955?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-11 20:01","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Trump Media & Technology Shares Rise Pre-Bell as Donald Trump Edges Higher in Polls","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2474098955","media":"MT Newswires Live","summary":"Trump Media & Technology Group  shares went up more than 13% in recent Friday premarket activity, after closing at least 17% higher to $24.12 on Thursday.Shares of the company, which is majority-owned by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, have gone up 49% in the past week.A Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this week showed that Trump has narrowed the gap between him and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris, who is shown to be leading by three percentage points at 46% against Trump's 43%.Trump's odds in the upcoming elections have also increased on PredictIt, an online prediction marketplace, to 52 cents from 49 cents last week, according to Reuters. Harris' odds are down to 52 cents from 55 cents a week ago, the report said.Price: 27.32, Change: +3.20, Percent Change: +13.27","content":"<html><body><p> Trump Media &amp; Technology Group (DJT) shares went up more than 13% in recent Friday premarket activity, after closing at least 17% higher to $24.12 on Thursday.</p><p>Shares of the company, which is majority-owned by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, have gone up 49% in the past week.</p><p>A Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this week showed that Trump has narrowed the gap between him and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris, who is shown to be leading by three percentage points at 46% against Trump's 43%.</p><p>Trump's odds in the upcoming elections have also increased on PredictIt, an online prediction marketplace, to 52 cents from 49 cents last week, according to Reuters. Harris' odds are down to 52 cents from 55 cents a week ago, the report said.</p><p>Price: 27.32, Change: +3.20, Percent Change: +13.27</p></body></html>","source":"mtnewswires_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trump Media & Technology Shares Rise Pre-Bell as Donald Trump Edges Higher in Polls</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrump Media & Technology Shares Rise Pre-Bell as Donald Trump Edges Higher in Polls\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092851196\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">MT Newswires Live </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-11 20:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p> Trump Media &amp; Technology Group (DJT) shares went up more than 13% in recent Friday premarket activity, after closing at least 17% higher to $24.12 on Thursday.</p><p>Shares of the company, which is majority-owned by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, have gone up 49% in the past week.</p><p>A Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this week showed that Trump has narrowed the gap between him and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris, who is shown to be leading by three percentage points at 46% against Trump's 43%.</p><p>Trump's odds in the upcoming elections have also increased on PredictIt, an online prediction marketplace, to 52 cents from 49 cents last week, according to Reuters. Harris' odds are down to 52 cents from 55 cents a week ago, the report said.</p><p>Price: 27.32, Change: +3.20, Percent Change: +13.27</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","DJT":"特朗普媒体科技集团"},"source_url":"https://www.mtnewswires.com/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2474098955","content_text":"Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) shares went up more than 13% in recent Friday premarket activity, after closing at least 17% higher to $24.12 on Thursday.Shares of the company, which is majority-owned by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, have gone up 49% in the past week.A Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this week showed that Trump has narrowed the gap between him and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris, who is shown to be leading by three percentage points at 46% against Trump's 43%.Trump's odds in the upcoming elections have also increased on PredictIt, an online prediction marketplace, to 52 cents from 49 cents last week, according to Reuters. Harris' odds are down to 52 cents from 55 cents a week ago, the report said.Price: 27.32, Change: +3.20, Percent Change: +13.27","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":364257022799968,"gmtCreate":1729940261464,"gmtModify":1729942276251,"author":{"id":"3576573367842862","authorId":"3576573367842862","name":"winwinwin543","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576573367842862","authorIdStr":"3576573367842862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"rubbish report. is this the same person who wsa previusly bullish ? suddenly become bearish now","listText":"rubbish report. is this the same person who wsa previusly bullish ? suddenly become bearish now","text":"rubbish report. is this the same person who wsa previusly bullish ? suddenly become bearish now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364257022799968","repostId":"1118394649","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1118394649","pubTimestamp":1729919329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118394649?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-26 13:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Sell Before It's Too Late (Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118394649","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba’s shares are falling after the market questions the effectiveness of China’s stimulus package.The overexposure of Alibaba and its stock to developments that are outside of the company’s","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1624008359\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Alibaba’s shares are falling after the market questions the effectiveness of China’s stimulus package.</p></li><li><p>The overexposure of Alibaba and its stock to developments that are outside of the company’s control is a major red flag.</p></li><li><p>In the current environment, Alibaba is a SELL for us.</p></li></ul><p>In the middle of 2023, we said that the market is underestimating the benefits of Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) spin-off that was announced earlier that year. A few months later, the macro environment for Chinese stocks worsened, and the company canceled an IPO of its cloud division, which should’ve unlocked significant value after becoming a separate public entity. This made Alibaba’s shares underperform for over a year, and our thesis didn’t play out.</p><p>The company’s shares rallied only recently as a result of the announcement of the stimulus package by the Chinese government that’s aimed at growing the Chinese economy. Most of the Chinese stocks along with Alibaba rallied in late September and early October thanks to that announcement. However, the rally is already losing its momentum, and we believe that at the current price, it’s smart to sell Alibaba’s stock since it doesn’t have any other major growth catalysts that could help its stock continue to increase in value.</p><h2 id=\"id_732002234\">Why The Rally Is Coming To An End</h2><p>As we write his article, Alibaba’s shares are already tumbling after reaching a 52-week-high price at the beginning of October, as the rally is losing its momentum. This is happening not only to Alibaba but to other Chinese stocks as well since there’s skepticism about the announced stimulus package. The IMF recently has even lowered China’s GDP growth rate as systemic issues remain.</p><p>Alibaba’s business has been directly impacted by the weaker growth of China’s economy. Alibaba’s latest earnings report for Q1 showed that its core eCommerce business, which is reported under the <em>Total</em> <em>Taobao and Tmall Group</em> segment, has experienced a 1% Y/Y decline in revenues to $15.6 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA was also down 1% Y/Y to $6.7 billion. We might see a further underperformance of the eCommerce business since consumer confidence in China is currently close to its historically low levels and the consumer price growth in September was weaker than expected.</p><p>The cloud business, which, we hoped, would become a separate entity a year ago, is also underperforming against its international competitors. Its revenue in Q2 was up only 6% Y/Y to $3.65 billion. Its international competitors, like Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG)(GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN), are growing at a much better double-digit rate even though their initial base for comparison is much higher in comparison to Alibaba. Even some Chinese businesses are turning to Western cloud providers, which can run the code on more advanced AI chips.</p><p>One of the main reasons why Alibaba’s overall sales were up last quarter was thanks to the better growth of the international business, which is reported under the <em>Total Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group</em> segment in the earnings report. The international sales were up 32% Y/Y last quarter to $4.03 billion, which helped the company improve its overall top-line performance. But since the escalation of the Sino-American trade war is likely a matter of time, there’s no guarantee that the international business will be able to continue to grow at such a big rate in the future.</p><p>We believe that Alibaba’s reliance primarily on external developments and the exposure of its stock to developments that are outside of the business’s control is a major red flag. Unlike its Western eCommerce competitors that continue to scale their businesses aggressively, Alibaba is expected to grow its sales and earnings only at a single-digit rate. This makes it hard to call it a growth stock with significant upside potential, especially considering its recent performance and exposure to external developments. Not only did its stock increase in value aggressively in the last month mostly due to China’s actions, but it also has been depreciating in the last couple of weeks as the market questions the announced actions, while Alibaba has no internal catalysts to keep the momentum going.</p><h2 id=\"id_3506123574\">Better Future Still Possible?</h2><p>There’s still a possibility that China’s stimulus package will be beneficial to China’s economy and Alibaba in particular over the long term. The proposed reduced mortgage rates could revive the activity in the housing market, while the proposed stock buybacks could stabilize market prices for Chinese equities.</p><p>The growth of retail sales in China in September by 3.2% against the expectations of 2.5% could also lead to the improvement of consumer sentiment and boost Alibaba’s sales in Q2. The earnings report is expected to come out next month, as the potential improvement of the eCommerce business and a sales beat could reignite the investors’ confidence.</p><p>Finally, the overall improvement of the macro environment and the forecasted global growth rate of 3.2% in 2024 and 2025 could help Alibaba’s international business to perform well despite the geopolitical risks.</p><h2 id=\"id_1019124111\">The Real Value of Alibaba</h2><p>Considering all the upsides and downsides of Alibaba, we wanted to find out what is the real value of the company. Below are valuation tables with our calculations.</p><p>Our model covers the period of the next five years. In the model, we use a tax rate of 25%. In 2021, some of Alibaba’s businesses lost the preferential tax treatment and the management warned of a period of higher taxes ahead. The current standard corporate rate in China is 25%, and we could see Beijing doing a tax reform in the future. Considering this, we believe that applying a 25% tax rate when forecasting Alibaba’s performance makes sense.</p><p>We created this model when Alibaba was trading at $96.32 per share and used the cash and long-term debt data from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate in our valuation model is 3%, which is the rate that’s typically used when valuing a major public company.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 8.56%. We found it by calculating Alibaba’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. For calculating the after-tax cost of debt, we used Alibaba’s TTM data. For calculating the cost of equity, we used a risk-free rate of 4.2%, a beta of 1.51, and a market return rate of 7.69%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fadd39c424da03a0f964a00b6dd8d23\" alt=\"Alibaba’s Valuation Model\" title=\"Alibaba’s Valuation Model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>Alibaba’s Valuation Model</span></p><p></p><p>In the forecast table below, we assume a sales growth rate of 7.8% in the current fiscal year. The sales growth rate assumptions are mostly similar to the current consensus. The CapEx for the following years is increased in our model. In Q1, Alibaba’s CapEx was $1.66 billion and the management said that it’s expecting a similar level of investments in CapEx in the next few quarters. Other assumptions are similar to Alibaba’s historical performance.</p><p>After figuring out the cumulative present value of FCF based on the numbers from the forecast table, we applied the discount rate and the terminal growth rate to get the terminal value, the present value of the terminal value, and the enterprise value, which is $201.15 billion in our case. We then added the current cash reserves to the enterprise value and subtracted long-term debt to find out the equity value, which in our case is $238.42 billion. We then divided the equity value by the number of outstanding shares and found out that Alibaba’s intrinsic value is $97.34 per share, which indicates a 1% upside.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/03419399e3ed477681a2d18d5255866d\" alt=\"Alibaba’s Valuation Model\" title=\"Alibaba’s Valuation Model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\"/><span>Alibaba’s Valuation Model</span></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_467275247\">Why We Still Believe That Alibaba Is A SELL</h2><p>While our model shows that Alibaba’s stock represents a minimal upside, we believe that the company is a SELL right now. The only reason why its shares were able to rally is because there was a macro catalyst that boosted the share prices of all major Chinese companies that are trading on American exchanges. Without it, Alibaba would’ve probably traded around $70 - $80 per share today, like it was more than a month ago. This is because Alibaba, in our opinion, has no direct major catalysts that could improve the performance of its stock.</p><p>In the current environment, it seems that being fundamentally undervalued is not enough to drive the stock price higher. Alibaba has been undervalued solely on fundamentals for a long time, but that didn’t help its shares to increase in value until very recently for reasons beyond the company’s control. We also see that the rally is already losing its momentum, the shares are now relatively far away from their 52-week highs that were achieved at the beginning of October, and the price action suggests that a further pullback might be on the way.</p><p>As for the bigger picture, until the Sino-American relations improve, we’re unlikely to see a revived interest in Chinese stocks from Western investors. That is why we believe that Alibaba is not investable right now despite trading close to its intrinsic value, and give its stock a rating of SELL.</p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Sell Before It's Too Late (Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Sell Before It's Too Late (Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-26 13:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729537-alibaba-shares-sell-before-its-too-late><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba’s shares are falling after the market questions the effectiveness of China’s stimulus package.The overexposure of Alibaba and its stock to developments that are outside of the company’s...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729537-alibaba-shares-sell-before-its-too-late\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729537-alibaba-shares-sell-before-its-too-late","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1118394649","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba’s shares are falling after the market questions the effectiveness of China’s stimulus package.The overexposure of Alibaba and its stock to developments that are outside of the company’s control is a major red flag.In the current environment, Alibaba is a SELL for us.In the middle of 2023, we said that the market is underestimating the benefits of Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) spin-off that was announced earlier that year. A few months later, the macro environment for Chinese stocks worsened, and the company canceled an IPO of its cloud division, which should’ve unlocked significant value after becoming a separate public entity. This made Alibaba’s shares underperform for over a year, and our thesis didn’t play out.The company’s shares rallied only recently as a result of the announcement of the stimulus package by the Chinese government that’s aimed at growing the Chinese economy. Most of the Chinese stocks along with Alibaba rallied in late September and early October thanks to that announcement. However, the rally is already losing its momentum, and we believe that at the current price, it’s smart to sell Alibaba’s stock since it doesn’t have any other major growth catalysts that could help its stock continue to increase in value.Why The Rally Is Coming To An EndAs we write his article, Alibaba’s shares are already tumbling after reaching a 52-week-high price at the beginning of October, as the rally is losing its momentum. This is happening not only to Alibaba but to other Chinese stocks as well since there’s skepticism about the announced stimulus package. The IMF recently has even lowered China’s GDP growth rate as systemic issues remain.Alibaba’s business has been directly impacted by the weaker growth of China’s economy. Alibaba’s latest earnings report for Q1 showed that its core eCommerce business, which is reported under the Total Taobao and Tmall Group segment, has experienced a 1% Y/Y decline in revenues to $15.6 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA was also down 1% Y/Y to $6.7 billion. We might see a further underperformance of the eCommerce business since consumer confidence in China is currently close to its historically low levels and the consumer price growth in September was weaker than expected.The cloud business, which, we hoped, would become a separate entity a year ago, is also underperforming against its international competitors. Its revenue in Q2 was up only 6% Y/Y to $3.65 billion. Its international competitors, like Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG)(GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN), are growing at a much better double-digit rate even though their initial base for comparison is much higher in comparison to Alibaba. Even some Chinese businesses are turning to Western cloud providers, which can run the code on more advanced AI chips.One of the main reasons why Alibaba’s overall sales were up last quarter was thanks to the better growth of the international business, which is reported under the Total Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment in the earnings report. The international sales were up 32% Y/Y last quarter to $4.03 billion, which helped the company improve its overall top-line performance. But since the escalation of the Sino-American trade war is likely a matter of time, there’s no guarantee that the international business will be able to continue to grow at such a big rate in the future.We believe that Alibaba’s reliance primarily on external developments and the exposure of its stock to developments that are outside of the business’s control is a major red flag. Unlike its Western eCommerce competitors that continue to scale their businesses aggressively, Alibaba is expected to grow its sales and earnings only at a single-digit rate. This makes it hard to call it a growth stock with significant upside potential, especially considering its recent performance and exposure to external developments. Not only did its stock increase in value aggressively in the last month mostly due to China’s actions, but it also has been depreciating in the last couple of weeks as the market questions the announced actions, while Alibaba has no internal catalysts to keep the momentum going.Better Future Still Possible?There’s still a possibility that China’s stimulus package will be beneficial to China’s economy and Alibaba in particular over the long term. The proposed reduced mortgage rates could revive the activity in the housing market, while the proposed stock buybacks could stabilize market prices for Chinese equities.The growth of retail sales in China in September by 3.2% against the expectations of 2.5% could also lead to the improvement of consumer sentiment and boost Alibaba’s sales in Q2. The earnings report is expected to come out next month, as the potential improvement of the eCommerce business and a sales beat could reignite the investors’ confidence.Finally, the overall improvement of the macro environment and the forecasted global growth rate of 3.2% in 2024 and 2025 could help Alibaba’s international business to perform well despite the geopolitical risks.The Real Value of AlibabaConsidering all the upsides and downsides of Alibaba, we wanted to find out what is the real value of the company. Below are valuation tables with our calculations.Our model covers the period of the next five years. In the model, we use a tax rate of 25%. In 2021, some of Alibaba’s businesses lost the preferential tax treatment and the management warned of a period of higher taxes ahead. The current standard corporate rate in China is 25%, and we could see Beijing doing a tax reform in the future. Considering this, we believe that applying a 25% tax rate when forecasting Alibaba’s performance makes sense.We created this model when Alibaba was trading at $96.32 per share and used the cash and long-term debt data from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate in our valuation model is 3%, which is the rate that’s typically used when valuing a major public company.The discount rate in our valuation model is 8.56%. We found it by calculating Alibaba’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. For calculating the after-tax cost of debt, we used Alibaba’s TTM data. For calculating the cost of equity, we used a risk-free rate of 4.2%, a beta of 1.51, and a market return rate of 7.69%.Alibaba’s Valuation ModelIn the forecast table below, we assume a sales growth rate of 7.8% in the current fiscal year. The sales growth rate assumptions are mostly similar to the current consensus. The CapEx for the following years is increased in our model. In Q1, Alibaba’s CapEx was $1.66 billion and the management said that it’s expecting a similar level of investments in CapEx in the next few quarters. Other assumptions are similar to Alibaba’s historical performance.After figuring out the cumulative present value of FCF based on the numbers from the forecast table, we applied the discount rate and the terminal growth rate to get the terminal value, the present value of the terminal value, and the enterprise value, which is $201.15 billion in our case. We then added the current cash reserves to the enterprise value and subtracted long-term debt to find out the equity value, which in our case is $238.42 billion. We then divided the equity value by the number of outstanding shares and found out that Alibaba’s intrinsic value is $97.34 per share, which indicates a 1% upside.Alibaba’s Valuation ModelWhy We Still Believe That Alibaba Is A SELLWhile our model shows that Alibaba’s stock represents a minimal upside, we believe that the company is a SELL right now. The only reason why its shares were able to rally is because there was a macro catalyst that boosted the share prices of all major Chinese companies that are trading on American exchanges. Without it, Alibaba would’ve probably traded around $70 - $80 per share today, like it was more than a month ago. This is because Alibaba, in our opinion, has no direct major catalysts that could improve the performance of its stock.In the current environment, it seems that being fundamentally undervalued is not enough to drive the stock price higher. Alibaba has been undervalued solely on fundamentals for a long time, but that didn’t help its shares to increase in value until very recently for reasons beyond the company’s control. We also see that the rally is already losing its momentum, the shares are now relatively far away from their 52-week highs that were achieved at the beginning of October, and the price action suggests that a further pullback might be on the way.As for the bigger picture, until the Sino-American relations improve, we’re unlikely to see a revived interest in Chinese stocks from Western investors. That is why we believe that Alibaba is not investable right now despite trading close to its intrinsic value, and give its stock a rating of SELL.Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363387878809800,"gmtCreate":1729744286577,"gmtModify":1729747928141,"author":{"id":"3576573367842862","authorId":"3576573367842862","name":"winwinwin543","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576573367842862","authorIdStr":"3576573367842862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Put your money where your mouth is......short DJT if you think it's going to tank.","listText":"Put your money where your mouth is......short DJT if you think it's going to tank.","text":"Put your money where your mouth is......short DJT if you think it's going to tank.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363387878809800","repostId":"2477851677","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477851677","pubTimestamp":1729717649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477851677?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-24 05:07","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Trump Media & Technology Group: The Wrong Way To Play The 'Trump Trade'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477851677","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Financial markets and betting odds are increasingly pricing in a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. election, influencing stocks and cryptocurrencies.Despite the market's optimism, I argue that","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Financial markets and betting odds are increasingly pricing in a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. election, influencing stocks and cryptocurrencies.</li><li>Despite the market's optimism, I argue that Trump Media &amp; Technology Group's valuation is unsustainable and will likely fail to meet expectations even if Trump wins.</li><li>My analysis focuses on the company's non-existent revenue growth and competition from platforms like X, affecting Truth Social's demand.</li><li>DJT longs should take the money and run.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1025px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>P. Kijsanayothin</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>With just two weeks remaining until the general election in the United States (as of article submission), financial markets appear to be pricing in a Donald Trump win in November. This isn't just my own personal opinion, it's one widely shared by<span> the market if legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller has an accurate read on the environment. This is what Druckenmiller told </span>Bloomberg on October 16th<span>:</span></p> <blockquote><p>I must say, in the last twelve days the market, and the inside of the market, is very convinced that Trump is going to win. You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto, you can even see it in DJT.</p></blockquote> <p>His last part of that comment is a reference to the ticker for Trump Media &amp; Technology Group Corp. (<span>NASDAQ:DJT</span>). Another signal that Druckenmiller left out of his market tea-leaf assessment is the action that can currently be seen in the betting markets. Of which, the largest by pure betting volume is Polymarket:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"326\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/22/50832021-17296081953893116.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>US Election Market as of 10/22/24 (Polymarket)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>As of article submission, Polymarket bettors are currently pricing a Trump win at 64 cents to make a dollar - this is the highest expectation for the former President winning the office again since current President Joe Biden withdrew from re-election this past summer. After two months of a very tight race, something changed in markets in early October when Donald Trump's Polymarket shares broke out above 54 cents. And we're not just seeing that sentiment change reflected in betting markets, we're also seeing it in things like stocks and Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) as Druckenmiller mentioned:</p> <p><figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/22/saupload_8712bbeec8ab7cdb7d34d13f5eba2a1c.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since October 7, the S&amp;P is up nearly 3%, Bitcoin is up 7%, and shares of DJT are up <em>over 70%</em>. From where I sit, there is a clear 'Trump Trade' taking place as the market begins to price in a Donald Trump victory in the November election. Despite its recent surge in price, I think going long DJT shares is the wrong way to play that election result if it does indeed come to fruition.</p> <p>I want to be very clear about this; nothing in this piece is intended to make a political statement either way about former President Trump. This post is purely about whether or not the investment thesis for DJT stock improves in the event of a prospective Trump election win. Whether the former President wins next month or not, I believe Trump Media &amp; Technology Group will likely fail to live up to the company's lofty valuation.</p> <h2>Trump Media &amp; Technology Group's Business</h2> <p>The flagship product for DJT shareholders is Truth Social. Founded in late 2021, Truth Social spawned in response to former President Trump's ban from mainstream social media platforms like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms, Inc.</a>'s (META) Facebook and Twitter (will be referred to as X from here). Marketed as a 'free speech' alternative to the legacy social platforms, Truth Social is majority-owned by Trump himself and has been the primary social media platform for the former President since its launch. This seems to be the only real bull case for Truth Social because the revenue growth story simply hasn't manifested over the last two years.</p> <p><figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/22/saupload_280a12ba5215c97b856061ce9165debc.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure></p> <p>Despite the $6.1 billion market valuation presently represented by the company's stock, Trump Media &amp; Technology Group has only managed to generate $1.6 million in top line revenue year to date. Perhaps, more concerning is the year-over-year declines in quarterly revenue each of the last three quarters. Unsurprisingly as it is such a young company, Trump Media &amp; Technology Group has never operated a profitable quarter, and SG&amp;A expenses in the first half of 2024 eclipsed $80 million. I suspect the biggest issue facing Truth Social today is the market landscape has changed dramatically since Elon Musk entered the social media arena as a platform owner rather than just a platform user.</p> <h2>X Has Killed Demand For Alternatives</h2> <p>You are not going to get any argument from me that there was a very clear market need for viable alternatives to social media platforms like X, Meta Platforms, Inc.'s (META) Facebook, and Alphabet Inc.'s (GOOG) (GOOGL) YouTube during the COVID era. I've shared a similar sentiment in recent work covering <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUM\">Rumble Inc.</a> (RUM) for Seeking Alpha. But one of the biggest reasons why I'm not long Rumble as a future growth speculation is the same reason I don't think investments in Trump Media &amp; Technology will bear much fruit; Elon Musk has turned X into a platform that is friendlier to viewpoints that would be seen as opposition to what might be considered 'politically appropriate.' Donald Trump's account on X has even been reinstated under Musk's ownership and Trump has indeed been using the platform again:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"395\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/22/50832021-17296136980352368.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>@RealDonaldTrump Usage Metrics (Social Blade)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>As I see it, Truth Social is likely already a dead platform due to the switching cost that comes with starting over as a social media user. Since most of these platforms are walled gardens, a user can't take their followers with them from platform to platform. One has to rely on followers switching platforms together to maintain the same community, and this generally never happens. Even when people do switch together, posting and engagement on the insurgent platform generally underwhelm fairly quickly because the reach is so much smaller.</p> <p>Consider the difference in monthly traffic between X and a few insurgent 'free speech' alternative platforms:</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <th>Monthly Visits (millions)</th> <th>June</th> <th>July</th> <th>August</th> </tr> <tr> <td>X</td> <td>4,420</td> <td>4,350</td> <td>4,070</td> </tr> <tr> <td><em>Truth Social</em></td> <td><em>16.1</em></td> <td><em>17.1</em></td> <td><em>13.4</em></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gab</td> <td>13.8</td> <td>12.9</td> <td>12.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gettr</td> <td>1.4</td> <td>1.4</td> <td>1.1</td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>Source: Semrush</p> <p>In the table above, we're looking at monthly traffic data for notable alternative social media platforms that were positioned as 'free speech' alternatives to X before Elon Musk bought the company. It's a bit unfair to even compare these platforms with X today because even if we rolled all of their traffic together it still makes up less than 1% of the total traffic that X gets in a typical month. When we strip out X and focus on Truth Social against just Gab and Gettr, Truth Social is indeed getting more traffic. But it also exhibited a declining share of even just those three fledgling alternative platforms in August:</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <th>Monthly Visits (millions)</th> <th>June</th> <th>July</th> <th>August</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Truth Social</td> <td>16.07</td> <td>17.05</td> <td>13.42</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gab</td> <td>13.8</td> <td>12.88</td> <td>12.26</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gettr</td> <td>1.39</td> <td>1.36</td> <td>1.14</td> </tr> <tr> <td><em>Truth Share</em></td> <td><em>51.41%</em></td> <td><em>54.49%</em></td> <td><em>50.04%</em></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>Source: Semrush</p> <p>Again, these are small traffic numbers compared to X. But I think it hammers home the point that users of legacy platforms rarely leave. Truth Social is further handicapped here because half the social-media-using US population is unlikely to ever consider joining Truth Social due to its ties to Donald Trump. The other half already have a friendlier platform in X with hundreds of millions more users. This is not a favorable setup for Truth Social.</p> <h2>Company Valuation</h2> <p>From a valuation standpoint, the only number that really matters is the price-to-tangible book, in my opinion. The company owns a social platform that isn't growing and may not really need to exist. There is no meaningful revenue to speak of, and it's challenging to even claim this is a \"growth stock\" with declining sales for three straight quarters. Today, the company is trading at over 1,100x sales. This is obviously a preposterous number and not the right way to value equity. The good thing for DJT shareholders is there is no real debt to speak of and $344 million in cash and equivalents. At 194.7 million shares outstanding, that gives DJT shares a tangible book value of about $1.78 per share. That's about what I'd pay for it, personally.</p> <h2>Upside Risks</h2> <p>Primary risks to the bear thesis for DJT would be if Truth Social or Truth+ become the primary methods of content distribution for Donald Trump if he were to once again be POTUS. In this scenario, I do think it would be logical to see a spike in users, engagement, and revenue derived from Trump Media-owned properties. However, this is not a likely outcome in my assessment because of both the obvious conflict of interest and the likelihood that these platforms would still only generate a fraction of the reach X - which, again, is now a platform that is far friendlier to Trump under Elon Musk's ownership.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"355\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/23/50832021-17296845842336671.png\" width=\"640\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>DJT Daily Chart (TrendSpider)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The more pressing concern for any prospective short position would be the meme-like nature of DJT stock. It's an equity that is starting to generate more sustained interest from retail traders. A traditional investor might scoff at the $6 billion valuation on a couple of million dollars in annual revenue. The perpetual fiat currency debasement scheme that we're currently in has led to a financially nihilistic environment that has produced <em>two</em> dog-themed cryptocurrencies with fully diluted valuations north of $10 billion. This is largely why I would not advise shorting DJT even though the valuation may be rich.</p> <h2>Investor Takeaways</h2> <p>There has been plenty already said about the DJT share lock-up and the possibility that Donald Trump could begin selling out of his majority position in the company. To this point, that has not yet manifested, and lock-up expiration has actually been a 'sell the rumor, buy the news' event. Regardless of whether we see DJT insider sales begin to happen either this quarter or later, it is my personal view that DJT shareholders are going to get wrecked from here purely because of the valuation being assigned to the shares. Equity holders have a claim on a little under $2 per share in tangible value via DJT.</p> <div></div> <p>As I see it, the business is not growing and is unlikely to do so in large part because the demand for an alternative platform isn't nearly as robust as it was three years ago, before Elon Musk bought X. Perhaps, there will again be a time when alternative platforms are viewed as necessary, but in the event that happens, Truth Social will suffer the same issues that have plagued other alternatives in the past; fragmentation, user switching cost, and lack of advertisers. Rumble is experiencing these same problems. Thus, I see no real boost from Truth+ as a long-term revenue driver here either. At $34 per share for DJT, longs should take the money and run.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trump Media & Technology Group: The Wrong Way To Play The 'Trump Trade'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrump Media & Technology Group: The Wrong Way To Play The 'Trump Trade'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-24 05:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4728783-trump-media-and-technology-group-the-wrong-way-to-play-the-trump-trade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Financial markets and betting odds are increasingly pricing in a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. election, influencing stocks and cryptocurrencies.Despite the market's optimism, I argue that...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4728783-trump-media-and-technology-group-the-wrong-way-to-play-the-trump-trade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1371763060/image_1371763060.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","DJT":"特朗普媒体科技集团","BK4516":"特朗普概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4728783-trump-media-and-technology-group-the-wrong-way-to-play-the-trump-trade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2477851677","content_text":"Financial markets and betting odds are increasingly pricing in a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. election, influencing stocks and cryptocurrencies.Despite the market's optimism, I argue that Trump Media & Technology Group's valuation is unsustainable and will likely fail to meet expectations even if Trump wins.My analysis focuses on the company's non-existent revenue growth and competition from platforms like X, affecting Truth Social's demand.DJT longs should take the money and run.P. Kijsanayothin With just two weeks remaining until the general election in the United States (as of article submission), financial markets appear to be pricing in a Donald Trump win in November. This isn't just my own personal opinion, it's one widely shared by the market if legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller has an accurate read on the environment. This is what Druckenmiller told Bloomberg on October 16th: I must say, in the last twelve days the market, and the inside of the market, is very convinced that Trump is going to win. You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto, you can even see it in DJT. His last part of that comment is a reference to the ticker for Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ:DJT). Another signal that Druckenmiller left out of his market tea-leaf assessment is the action that can currently be seen in the betting markets. Of which, the largest by pure betting volume is Polymarket: US Election Market as of 10/22/24 (Polymarket) As of article submission, Polymarket bettors are currently pricing a Trump win at 64 cents to make a dollar - this is the highest expectation for the former President winning the office again since current President Joe Biden withdrew from re-election this past summer. After two months of a very tight race, something changed in markets in early October when Donald Trump's Polymarket shares broke out above 54 cents. And we're not just seeing that sentiment change reflected in betting markets, we're also seeing it in things like stocks and Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) as Druckenmiller mentioned: Data by YCharts Since October 7, the S&P is up nearly 3%, Bitcoin is up 7%, and shares of DJT are up over 70%. From where I sit, there is a clear 'Trump Trade' taking place as the market begins to price in a Donald Trump victory in the November election. Despite its recent surge in price, I think going long DJT shares is the wrong way to play that election result if it does indeed come to fruition. I want to be very clear about this; nothing in this piece is intended to make a political statement either way about former President Trump. This post is purely about whether or not the investment thesis for DJT stock improves in the event of a prospective Trump election win. Whether the former President wins next month or not, I believe Trump Media & Technology Group will likely fail to live up to the company's lofty valuation. Trump Media & Technology Group's Business The flagship product for DJT shareholders is Truth Social. Founded in late 2021, Truth Social spawned in response to former President Trump's ban from mainstream social media platforms like Meta Platforms, Inc.'s (META) Facebook and Twitter (will be referred to as X from here). Marketed as a 'free speech' alternative to the legacy social platforms, Truth Social is majority-owned by Trump himself and has been the primary social media platform for the former President since its launch. This seems to be the only real bull case for Truth Social because the revenue growth story simply hasn't manifested over the last two years. Data by YCharts Despite the $6.1 billion market valuation presently represented by the company's stock, Trump Media & Technology Group has only managed to generate $1.6 million in top line revenue year to date. Perhaps, more concerning is the year-over-year declines in quarterly revenue each of the last three quarters. Unsurprisingly as it is such a young company, Trump Media & Technology Group has never operated a profitable quarter, and SG&A expenses in the first half of 2024 eclipsed $80 million. I suspect the biggest issue facing Truth Social today is the market landscape has changed dramatically since Elon Musk entered the social media arena as a platform owner rather than just a platform user. X Has Killed Demand For Alternatives You are not going to get any argument from me that there was a very clear market need for viable alternatives to social media platforms like X, Meta Platforms, Inc.'s (META) Facebook, and Alphabet Inc.'s (GOOG) (GOOGL) YouTube during the COVID era. I've shared a similar sentiment in recent work covering Rumble Inc. (RUM) for Seeking Alpha. But one of the biggest reasons why I'm not long Rumble as a future growth speculation is the same reason I don't think investments in Trump Media & Technology will bear much fruit; Elon Musk has turned X into a platform that is friendlier to viewpoints that would be seen as opposition to what might be considered 'politically appropriate.' Donald Trump's account on X has even been reinstated under Musk's ownership and Trump has indeed been using the platform again: @RealDonaldTrump Usage Metrics (Social Blade) As I see it, Truth Social is likely already a dead platform due to the switching cost that comes with starting over as a social media user. Since most of these platforms are walled gardens, a user can't take their followers with them from platform to platform. One has to rely on followers switching platforms together to maintain the same community, and this generally never happens. Even when people do switch together, posting and engagement on the insurgent platform generally underwhelm fairly quickly because the reach is so much smaller. Consider the difference in monthly traffic between X and a few insurgent 'free speech' alternative platforms:         Monthly Visits (millions) June July August   X 4,420 4,350 4,070   Truth Social 16.1 17.1 13.4   Gab 13.8 12.9 12.3   Gettr 1.4 1.4 1.1   Click to enlarge Source: Semrush In the table above, we're looking at monthly traffic data for notable alternative social media platforms that were positioned as 'free speech' alternatives to X before Elon Musk bought the company. It's a bit unfair to even compare these platforms with X today because even if we rolled all of their traffic together it still makes up less than 1% of the total traffic that X gets in a typical month. When we strip out X and focus on Truth Social against just Gab and Gettr, Truth Social is indeed getting more traffic. But it also exhibited a declining share of even just those three fledgling alternative platforms in August:         Monthly Visits (millions) June July August   Truth Social 16.07 17.05 13.42   Gab 13.8 12.88 12.26   Gettr 1.39 1.36 1.14   Truth Share 51.41% 54.49% 50.04%   Click to enlarge Source: Semrush Again, these are small traffic numbers compared to X. But I think it hammers home the point that users of legacy platforms rarely leave. Truth Social is further handicapped here because half the social-media-using US population is unlikely to ever consider joining Truth Social due to its ties to Donald Trump. The other half already have a friendlier platform in X with hundreds of millions more users. This is not a favorable setup for Truth Social. Company Valuation From a valuation standpoint, the only number that really matters is the price-to-tangible book, in my opinion. The company owns a social platform that isn't growing and may not really need to exist. There is no meaningful revenue to speak of, and it's challenging to even claim this is a \"growth stock\" with declining sales for three straight quarters. Today, the company is trading at over 1,100x sales. This is obviously a preposterous number and not the right way to value equity. The good thing for DJT shareholders is there is no real debt to speak of and $344 million in cash and equivalents. At 194.7 million shares outstanding, that gives DJT shares a tangible book value of about $1.78 per share. That's about what I'd pay for it, personally. Upside Risks Primary risks to the bear thesis for DJT would be if Truth Social or Truth+ become the primary methods of content distribution for Donald Trump if he were to once again be POTUS. In this scenario, I do think it would be logical to see a spike in users, engagement, and revenue derived from Trump Media-owned properties. However, this is not a likely outcome in my assessment because of both the obvious conflict of interest and the likelihood that these platforms would still only generate a fraction of the reach X - which, again, is now a platform that is far friendlier to Trump under Elon Musk's ownership. DJT Daily Chart (TrendSpider) The more pressing concern for any prospective short position would be the meme-like nature of DJT stock. It's an equity that is starting to generate more sustained interest from retail traders. A traditional investor might scoff at the $6 billion valuation on a couple of million dollars in annual revenue. The perpetual fiat currency debasement scheme that we're currently in has led to a financially nihilistic environment that has produced two dog-themed cryptocurrencies with fully diluted valuations north of $10 billion. This is largely why I would not advise shorting DJT even though the valuation may be rich. Investor Takeaways There has been plenty already said about the DJT share lock-up and the possibility that Donald Trump could begin selling out of his majority position in the company. To this point, that has not yet manifested, and lock-up expiration has actually been a 'sell the rumor, buy the news' event. Regardless of whether we see DJT insider sales begin to happen either this quarter or later, it is my personal view that DJT shareholders are going to get wrecked from here purely because of the valuation being assigned to the shares. Equity holders have a claim on a little under $2 per share in tangible value via DJT.  As I see it, the business is not growing and is unlikely to do so in large part because the demand for an alternative platform isn't nearly as robust as it was three years ago, before Elon Musk bought X. Perhaps, there will again be a time when alternative platforms are viewed as necessary, but in the event that happens, Truth Social will suffer the same issues that have plagued other alternatives in the past; fragmentation, user switching cost, and lack of advertisers. Rumble is experiencing these same problems. Thus, I see no real boost from Truth+ as a long-term revenue driver here either. At $34 per share for DJT, longs should take the money and run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358977895616712,"gmtCreate":1728648992073,"gmtModify":1728651878467,"author":{"id":"3576573367842862","authorId":"3576573367842862","name":"winwinwin543","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576573367842862","authorIdStr":"3576573367842862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How is Kamala even leading in the presidential race ? A trump win will send DJT to the moon .","listText":"How is Kamala even leading in the presidential race ? A trump win will send DJT to the moon .","text":"How is Kamala even leading in the presidential race ? A trump win will send DJT to the moon .","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358977895616712","repostId":"2474098955","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2474098955","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The most recognized names in North America, Europe and Asia rely on MT Newswires to power their applications. Better news, better service, better price.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"MT Newswires Live","id":"1092851196","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e"},"pubTimestamp":1728648106,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2474098955?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-11 20:01","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Trump Media & Technology Shares Rise Pre-Bell as Donald Trump Edges Higher in Polls","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2474098955","media":"MT Newswires Live","summary":"Trump Media & Technology Group  shares went up more than 13% in recent Friday premarket activity, after closing at least 17% higher to $24.12 on Thursday.Shares of the company, which is majority-owned by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, have gone up 49% in the past week.A Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this week showed that Trump has narrowed the gap between him and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris, who is shown to be leading by three percentage points at 46% against Trump's 43%.Trump's odds in the upcoming elections have also increased on PredictIt, an online prediction marketplace, to 52 cents from 49 cents last week, according to Reuters. Harris' odds are down to 52 cents from 55 cents a week ago, the report said.Price: 27.32, Change: +3.20, Percent Change: +13.27","content":"<html><body><p> Trump Media &amp; Technology Group (DJT) shares went up more than 13% in recent Friday premarket activity, after closing at least 17% higher to $24.12 on Thursday.</p><p>Shares of the company, which is majority-owned by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, have gone up 49% in the past week.</p><p>A Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this week showed that Trump has narrowed the gap between him and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris, who is shown to be leading by three percentage points at 46% against Trump's 43%.</p><p>Trump's odds in the upcoming elections have also increased on PredictIt, an online prediction marketplace, to 52 cents from 49 cents last week, according to Reuters. Harris' odds are down to 52 cents from 55 cents a week ago, the report said.</p><p>Price: 27.32, Change: +3.20, Percent Change: +13.27</p></body></html>","source":"mtnewswires_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trump Media & Technology Shares Rise Pre-Bell as Donald Trump Edges Higher in Polls</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrump Media & Technology Shares Rise Pre-Bell as Donald Trump Edges Higher in Polls\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092851196\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">MT Newswires Live </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-11 20:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p> Trump Media &amp; Technology Group (DJT) shares went up more than 13% in recent Friday premarket activity, after closing at least 17% higher to $24.12 on Thursday.</p><p>Shares of the company, which is majority-owned by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, have gone up 49% in the past week.</p><p>A Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this week showed that Trump has narrowed the gap between him and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris, who is shown to be leading by three percentage points at 46% against Trump's 43%.</p><p>Trump's odds in the upcoming elections have also increased on PredictIt, an online prediction marketplace, to 52 cents from 49 cents last week, according to Reuters. Harris' odds are down to 52 cents from 55 cents a week ago, the report said.</p><p>Price: 27.32, Change: +3.20, Percent Change: +13.27</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","DJT":"特朗普媒体科技集团"},"source_url":"https://www.mtnewswires.com/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2474098955","content_text":"Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) shares went up more than 13% in recent Friday premarket activity, after closing at least 17% higher to $24.12 on Thursday.Shares of the company, which is majority-owned by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, have gone up 49% in the past week.A Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this week showed that Trump has narrowed the gap between him and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris, who is shown to be leading by three percentage points at 46% against Trump's 43%.Trump's odds in the upcoming elections have also increased on PredictIt, an online prediction marketplace, to 52 cents from 49 cents last week, according to Reuters. Harris' odds are down to 52 cents from 55 cents a week ago, the report said.Price: 27.32, Change: +3.20, Percent Change: +13.27","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}