Kiwitry personal page - To The Moon

Kiwitry

Kiwitry

No personal profile

3Follow

0Followers

0Topic

0Badge

01-04

xiaomi ev is a joke

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-17

hehe

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-29

Join Tiger's Halloween Adventure Win prizes worth up to USD 900*. Promotion T&Cs apply.

2022-10-15

thanks

SPY: The VIX Could Reach 40 And Wreak Havoc

2022-09-16

ok

Should You Buy Stocks Now Or Wait? Here’s Warren Buffett’s Advice

2022-09-14

pls like

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-08-31

thanks

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-08-30

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-08-26

trap

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-08-25

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-08-22

ok who cares

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-08-19

ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-08-30

thanks

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-08-30

thanks for sharing

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3577333252819164","uuid":"3577333252819164","gmtCreate":1614843942159,"gmtModify":1639073027061,"name":"Kiwitry","pinyin":"kiwitry","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":3,"tweetSize":14,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.11","exceedPercentage":"93.18%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.06","exceedPercentage":"93.59%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":259249875484912,"gmtCreate":1704305903260,"gmtModify":1704318417892,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"xiaomi ev is a joke","listText":"xiaomi ev is a joke","text":"xiaomi ev is a joke","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/259249875484912","repostId":"2400877318","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943048791,"gmtCreate":1678998924214,"gmtModify":1678998929448,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hehe","listText":"hehe","text":"hehe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943048791","repostId":"1149396197","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986487810,"gmtCreate":1667004619530,"gmtModify":1676537847470,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Join Tiger's Halloween Adventure Win prizes worth up to USD 900*. Promotion T&amp;Cs apply.","listText":"Join Tiger's Halloween Adventure Win prizes worth up to USD 900*. Promotion T&amp;Cs apply.","text":"Join Tiger's Halloween Adventure Win prizes worth up to USD 900*. Promotion T&Cs apply.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986487810","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980716175,"gmtCreate":1665812313197,"gmtModify":1676537668774,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980716175","repostId":"1189401539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189401539","pubTimestamp":1665793690,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189401539?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-15 08:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: The VIX Could Reach 40 And Wreak Havoc","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189401539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryOur models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF dow","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Our models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF down into the abyss.</li><li>The Yield curve and macroeconomic factors paint a blurry picture.</li><li>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF&#39;s sector allocation likely feeds into a bear market capitulation.</li><li>Although a price action analysis suggests that a short-term reversal is possible, we remain bearish for at least another 12 weeks.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f835961d9be01243f40cc1b008032e7a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Scott Olson</span></p><p>Today we follow up on our previous SPDR S&amp;P 500 TRUST ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) sell rating. Our previous article successfully argued that the yield curve and macroeconomic factors would wreak havoc. In today&#39;s article, our argument bases itself on aVIX index (VIX) forecast and the possible implications that might arise if the VIX trends upwards.</p><p>This analysis is based on a 12-week horizon; whereafter we&#39;ll revise our stance.</p><h2>VIX - Forecast</h2><p>It&#39;s assumed among market participants that the VIX has a negative correlation to the S&amp;P 500. The reason for this is that excess market volatility results in risk aversion. Thus, a rising VIX usually drains the stock market.</p><p>Nevertheless, I wanted to confirm the theory quantitatively. Therefore, I pulled a few datasheets from Yahoo Finance and did a correlation analysis. According to our correlation matrix, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF does indeed exhibit a negative.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ecc4d7ca8ede0e5c7996688a01b2c1\" tg-width=\"252\" tg-height=\"72\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>Instead of speculating, I went ahead and used a seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the VIX&#39;s level for the next twelve trading weeks. I plugged in returns since the first trading day of 1990 and set confidence intervals of 95%.</p><p>The result shows the VIX could exceed the 40 handle within the next twelve weeks and drag down the stock market (or at least the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b72d8ee25a793e5136d48c969f5fc5c\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>Note that the seasonal ARIMA model bases its inferences on its own retrospective data distributions. Thus, the provided model needs to be assessed in tandem with other influencing variables. Nonetheless, it&#39;s a valuable indicator; see the full distribution in the diagram below.</p><p><i>Denotations:</i></p><ul><li><i>Mean = Moving average (This is the actual forecast).</i></li><li><i>UL = Upper-Level Forecast</i></li><li><i>LL = Lower-Level Forecast</i></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d9751d117448cc474621bc3e9f81f9\" tg-width=\"318\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data From Yahoo Finance</span></p><h2>The Yield Curve And Macroeconomic Outlook</h2><p>The Yield Curve&#39;s inversion is an issue as this usually implies a recession&#39;s inbound. The inversion essentially conveys that interest rates will need to be dropped in the future to stimulate a struggling economy. In our opinion, the S&amp;P 500&#39;s earnings yield will likely buckle (yield curve induced) before we reach a market bottom.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d19af0b47778d64855d2393157c9159e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Gurufocus</span></p><p>Furthermore, parsimonious macroeconomic variables remain a concern. For example, U.S. inflation remains resilient despite the broader economy entering a contraction. In addition, the Eurozone&#39;s plagued with an energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine just keeps dragging on. Thus, we believe it will be some time before the fading economic climate seeks new pastures.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f855faa67ddeb5d97bbf448dd99be2c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>SPY&#39;s Sector Allocation Assessed</h2><p>At first glance, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust hosts numerous high-risk constituents. I say this because of the ETF&#39;s exposure to both the technology and financial services sectors.</p><p>Technology stocks are usually categorized by their high-growth properties; however, they&#39;re not always the most recession-proof. Furthermore, the financial sector is known for its fragility during periods where recession risk is running high. Thus, I don&#39;t feel comfortable investing in an ETF with more than 38% of its capital invested in potentially high-risk/poor-return assets.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0479a4bd348ce095f56311ab84a48f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"199\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Lastly, I would&#39;ve liked to have seen exposure to consumer defensive stocks instead of consumer cyclical stocks. Consumer cyclical stocks, as the name says, are cyclical and potentially dangerous to own in contractionary economic environments.</p><h2>An Argument For Upside</h2><p>At the end of the day, the financial markets don&#39;t always adhere to theoretical underpinnings. In addition, the zeitgeist tends to shift prematurely. I mean, the bull market during 2020&#39;s hard covid-19 lockdowns is proof.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ddd937a4d1120bf293da10bde59624\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Moreover, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust has recently surged out of a prolonged drawdown and now trades above its 10-day moving average. Additionally, the ETF&#39;s Relative-Strength-Index has broken through its oversold level and seems to be on an upward trajectory.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e82ccebf14d8ec4c9d6cfd8d05f34e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><h2>Is The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust a Buy, Hold, or Sell?</h2><p>Based on quantitative analysis, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust could head into a downward spiral as we forecast the VIX to reach the 40s, in turn dragging stocks down into the abyss. Moreover, qualitative theory backs up the quantitative research as market-based theory suggests that most of the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&#39;s constituents are prone to recession risk.</p><p>Although the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust has recently garnered momentum, we still believe the asset to be a sell, reaffirming our previous rating.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>Pearl Gray Equity and Research</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: The VIX Could Reach 40 And Wreak Havoc</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: The VIX Could Reach 40 And Wreak Havoc\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-15 08:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546682-spy-the-vix-could-reach-40-and-wreak-havoc><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryOur models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF down into the abyss.The Yield curve and macroeconomic factors paint a blurry picture.The SPDR S&P 500 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546682-spy-the-vix-could-reach-40-and-wreak-havoc\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","VIX":"标普500波动率指数"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546682-spy-the-vix-could-reach-40-and-wreak-havoc","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189401539","content_text":"SummaryOur models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF down into the abyss.The Yield curve and macroeconomic factors paint a blurry picture.The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF's sector allocation likely feeds into a bear market capitulation.Although a price action analysis suggests that a short-term reversal is possible, we remain bearish for at least another 12 weeks.Scott OlsonToday we follow up on our previous SPDR S&P 500 TRUST ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) sell rating. Our previous article successfully argued that the yield curve and macroeconomic factors would wreak havoc. In today's article, our argument bases itself on aVIX index (VIX) forecast and the possible implications that might arise if the VIX trends upwards.This analysis is based on a 12-week horizon; whereafter we'll revise our stance.VIX - ForecastIt's assumed among market participants that the VIX has a negative correlation to the S&P 500. The reason for this is that excess market volatility results in risk aversion. Thus, a rising VIX usually drains the stock market.Nevertheless, I wanted to confirm the theory quantitatively. Therefore, I pulled a few datasheets from Yahoo Finance and did a correlation analysis. According to our correlation matrix, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF does indeed exhibit a negative.Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo FinanceInstead of speculating, I went ahead and used a seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the VIX's level for the next twelve trading weeks. I plugged in returns since the first trading day of 1990 and set confidence intervals of 95%.The result shows the VIX could exceed the 40 handle within the next twelve weeks and drag down the stock market (or at least the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF).Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo FinanceNote that the seasonal ARIMA model bases its inferences on its own retrospective data distributions. Thus, the provided model needs to be assessed in tandem with other influencing variables. Nonetheless, it's a valuable indicator; see the full distribution in the diagram below.Denotations:Mean = Moving average (This is the actual forecast).UL = Upper-Level ForecastLL = Lower-Level ForecastPearl Gray Equity and Research; Data From Yahoo FinanceThe Yield Curve And Macroeconomic OutlookThe Yield Curve's inversion is an issue as this usually implies a recession's inbound. The inversion essentially conveys that interest rates will need to be dropped in the future to stimulate a struggling economy. In our opinion, the S&P 500's earnings yield will likely buckle (yield curve induced) before we reach a market bottom.GurufocusFurthermore, parsimonious macroeconomic variables remain a concern. For example, U.S. inflation remains resilient despite the broader economy entering a contraction. In addition, the Eurozone's plagued with an energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine just keeps dragging on. Thus, we believe it will be some time before the fading economic climate seeks new pastures.Data by YChartsSPY's Sector Allocation AssessedAt first glance, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust hosts numerous high-risk constituents. I say this because of the ETF's exposure to both the technology and financial services sectors.Technology stocks are usually categorized by their high-growth properties; however, they're not always the most recession-proof. Furthermore, the financial sector is known for its fragility during periods where recession risk is running high. Thus, I don't feel comfortable investing in an ETF with more than 38% of its capital invested in potentially high-risk/poor-return assets.Seeking AlphaLastly, I would've liked to have seen exposure to consumer defensive stocks instead of consumer cyclical stocks. Consumer cyclical stocks, as the name says, are cyclical and potentially dangerous to own in contractionary economic environments.An Argument For UpsideAt the end of the day, the financial markets don't always adhere to theoretical underpinnings. In addition, the zeitgeist tends to shift prematurely. I mean, the bull market during 2020's hard covid-19 lockdowns is proof.Data by YChartsMoreover, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has recently surged out of a prolonged drawdown and now trades above its 10-day moving average. Additionally, the ETF's Relative-Strength-Index has broken through its oversold level and seems to be on an upward trajectory.Seeking AlphaIs The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust a Buy, Hold, or Sell?Based on quantitative analysis, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust could head into a downward spiral as we forecast the VIX to reach the 40s, in turn dragging stocks down into the abyss. Moreover, qualitative theory backs up the quantitative research as market-based theory suggests that most of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's constituents are prone to recession risk.Although the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has recently garnered momentum, we still believe the asset to be a sell, reaffirming our previous rating.This article is written by Pearl Gray Equity and Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934744152,"gmtCreate":1663308419476,"gmtModify":1676537249728,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934744152","repostId":"2267657881","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2267657881","pubTimestamp":1663296968,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2267657881?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Should You Buy Stocks Now Or Wait? Here’s Warren Buffett’s Advice","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2267657881","media":"MotleyFool","summary":"Stock market investors have had a tough time so far this year. Major market benchmarks are sharply l","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stock market investors have had a tough time so far this year. Major market benchmarks are sharply lower from where they started the year, and every time Wall Street seems to have regained its footing, some new concern sends stocks reeling once again.</p><p>For those with money to invest, falling markets pose a conundrum. On one hand, share prices for thousands of stocks are much more attractive than they were a year ago, so if you still believe that a company&#39;s business will succeed in the long run, getting to invest in more shares at lower prices is a bargain opportunity. On the other hand, nobody wants to buy a stock only to see it continue to lose ground.</p><p>So should you buy stocks now, or wait for some future sign? To get some insight on that question, it&#39;s helpful to turn to the words of legendary investor Warren Buffett. The <b>Berkshire Hathaway </b>(NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) CEO has been through plenty of bear markets in his long investing career, and his long-term investing approach has paid off with market-crushing returns through thick and thin. Here&#39;s what Buffett has given as advice to those trying to decide whether to invest or wait in tough times.</p><h2>Buffett&#39;s advice for active investors</h2><p>Buffett has a couple of ideas for active investors that at first seem to be in conflict. When you think about it, though, the net takeaway is to be aggressive but selective in choosing stocks to buy during difficult market conditions.</p><p>Buffett&#39;s aggressive nature shines through in several statements. In the shareholder letter that came out in 2010, the Berkshire CEO wrote: &#34;Big opportunities come infrequently. When it&#39;s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.&#34; That approach in the aftermath of the financial crisis proved to be quite timely, as the ensuing bull market lasted throughout the 2010s and was one of the most prosperous periods in stock market history. It also underscores his much more commonly cited aphorism, &#34;Be greedy when markets are fearful.&#34;</p><p>Yet Buffett&#39;s success has largely come from being selective with his investments. Fortunately, tough times offer great opportunities to see the truth about companies. As he noted in the shareholder letter that came out in 2002, &#34;You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.&#34; Even poorly run companies can do well in bull markets, but bear markets separate the wheat from the chaff.</p><p>Moreover, Buffett isn&#39;t hesitant to hold off on investments he&#39;s not completely confident about making. As he was quoted at the 1999 Berkshire shareholder meeting as saying: &#34;The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don&#39;t have to swing at everything. You can wait for your pitch.&#34;</p><h2>Buffett&#39;s advice to less-active investors</h2><p>Not everyone wants to spend a lot of time figuring out which companies are most likely to outperform their peers. For those less-active investors, Buffett also has some simple advice: Dollar-cost average using index funds.</p><p>Here&#39;s specifically what Buffett told investors at Berkshire&#39;s 2004 annual shareholders&#39; meeting: &#34;If you accumulate a low-cost index fund over 10 years with fairly regular sums, I think you will probably do better than 90% of the people around you that take up investing at a similar time.&#34;</p><p>Fortunately, there are plenty of such investing vehicles available for those who don&#39;t want to dive into individual stocks. Tracking popular indexes like the <b>S&amp;P 500 </b>or even the entire universe of stocks is possible through mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, many of which charge 0.1% or less in annual expenses to investors.</p><h2>The right answer for you</h2><p>The most important attribute successful investors share is having an investing strategy. What that strategy looks like, though, can differ among investors without sacrificing the potential for success. Buffett clearly understands this, and it&#39;s why he acknowledges that different strategies will work better for different people.</p><p>In general, though, Buffett&#39;s a big believer in bucking market trends, taking advantage of bargain opportunities, and beating back your emotions. The times when you&#39;re likely most scared to invest have historically been the best times to get your money working the markets, and so even if you don&#39;t dive in right now, you won&#39;t want to wait too long before getting a solid investing plan in place.</p></body></html>","source":"motleyfoolau_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should You Buy Stocks Now Or Wait? Here’s Warren Buffett’s Advice</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShould You Buy Stocks Now Or Wait? Here’s Warren Buffett’s Advice\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-16 10:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/15/buy-stocks-now-or-wait-warren-buffett-advice/><strong>MotleyFool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock market investors have had a tough time so far this year. Major market benchmarks are sharply lower from where they started the year, and every time Wall Street seems to have regained its footing...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/15/buy-stocks-now-or-wait-warren-buffett-advice/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4176":"多领域控股"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/15/buy-stocks-now-or-wait-warren-buffett-advice/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2267657881","content_text":"Stock market investors have had a tough time so far this year. Major market benchmarks are sharply lower from where they started the year, and every time Wall Street seems to have regained its footing, some new concern sends stocks reeling once again.For those with money to invest, falling markets pose a conundrum. On one hand, share prices for thousands of stocks are much more attractive than they were a year ago, so if you still believe that a company's business will succeed in the long run, getting to invest in more shares at lower prices is a bargain opportunity. On the other hand, nobody wants to buy a stock only to see it continue to lose ground.So should you buy stocks now, or wait for some future sign? To get some insight on that question, it's helpful to turn to the words of legendary investor Warren Buffett. The Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) CEO has been through plenty of bear markets in his long investing career, and his long-term investing approach has paid off with market-crushing returns through thick and thin. Here's what Buffett has given as advice to those trying to decide whether to invest or wait in tough times.Buffett's advice for active investorsBuffett has a couple of ideas for active investors that at first seem to be in conflict. When you think about it, though, the net takeaway is to be aggressive but selective in choosing stocks to buy during difficult market conditions.Buffett's aggressive nature shines through in several statements. In the shareholder letter that came out in 2010, the Berkshire CEO wrote: \"Big opportunities come infrequently. When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" That approach in the aftermath of the financial crisis proved to be quite timely, as the ensuing bull market lasted throughout the 2010s and was one of the most prosperous periods in stock market history. It also underscores his much more commonly cited aphorism, \"Be greedy when markets are fearful.\"Yet Buffett's success has largely come from being selective with his investments. Fortunately, tough times offer great opportunities to see the truth about companies. As he noted in the shareholder letter that came out in 2002, \"You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.\" Even poorly run companies can do well in bull markets, but bear markets separate the wheat from the chaff.Moreover, Buffett isn't hesitant to hold off on investments he's not completely confident about making. As he was quoted at the 1999 Berkshire shareholder meeting as saying: \"The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything. You can wait for your pitch.\"Buffett's advice to less-active investorsNot everyone wants to spend a lot of time figuring out which companies are most likely to outperform their peers. For those less-active investors, Buffett also has some simple advice: Dollar-cost average using index funds.Here's specifically what Buffett told investors at Berkshire's 2004 annual shareholders' meeting: \"If you accumulate a low-cost index fund over 10 years with fairly regular sums, I think you will probably do better than 90% of the people around you that take up investing at a similar time.\"Fortunately, there are plenty of such investing vehicles available for those who don't want to dive into individual stocks. Tracking popular indexes like the S&P 500 or even the entire universe of stocks is possible through mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, many of which charge 0.1% or less in annual expenses to investors.The right answer for youThe most important attribute successful investors share is having an investing strategy. What that strategy looks like, though, can differ among investors without sacrificing the potential for success. Buffett clearly understands this, and it's why he acknowledges that different strategies will work better for different people.In general, though, Buffett's a big believer in bucking market trends, taking advantage of bargain opportunities, and beating back your emotions. The times when you're likely most scared to invest have historically been the best times to get your money working the markets, and so even if you don't dive in right now, you won't want to wait too long before getting a solid investing plan in place.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935224570,"gmtCreate":1663110675490,"gmtModify":1676537203165,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935224570","repostId":"2267503275","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930804225,"gmtCreate":1661921505470,"gmtModify":1676536604840,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930804225","repostId":"2263410145","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997716466,"gmtCreate":1661854532758,"gmtModify":1676536591114,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997716466","repostId":"2263457829","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995436469,"gmtCreate":1661493828954,"gmtModify":1676536530402,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"trap","listText":"trap","text":"trap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995436469","repostId":"1132528078","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995373372,"gmtCreate":1661418852999,"gmtModify":1676536515183,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;ok","listText":"&nbsp;ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995373372","repostId":"2262660236","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996608821,"gmtCreate":1661154465765,"gmtModify":1676536463291,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok who cares","listText":"ok who cares","text":"ok who cares","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996608821","repostId":"1149567871","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998026042,"gmtCreate":1660903209789,"gmtModify":1676536421109,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998026042","repostId":"2260293366","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811681505,"gmtCreate":1630316769807,"gmtModify":1676530266654,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811681505","repostId":"1164294381","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811681045,"gmtCreate":1630316737587,"gmtModify":1676530266534,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks for sharing","listText":"thanks for sharing","text":"thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811681045","repostId":"1164294381","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9935224570,"gmtCreate":1663110675490,"gmtModify":1676537203165,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935224570","repostId":"2267503275","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980716175,"gmtCreate":1665812313197,"gmtModify":1676537668774,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980716175","repostId":"1189401539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189401539","pubTimestamp":1665793690,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189401539?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-15 08:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: The VIX Could Reach 40 And Wreak Havoc","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189401539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryOur models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF dow","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Our models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF down into the abyss.</li><li>The Yield curve and macroeconomic factors paint a blurry picture.</li><li>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF&#39;s sector allocation likely feeds into a bear market capitulation.</li><li>Although a price action analysis suggests that a short-term reversal is possible, we remain bearish for at least another 12 weeks.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f835961d9be01243f40cc1b008032e7a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Scott Olson</span></p><p>Today we follow up on our previous SPDR S&amp;P 500 TRUST ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) sell rating. Our previous article successfully argued that the yield curve and macroeconomic factors would wreak havoc. In today&#39;s article, our argument bases itself on aVIX index (VIX) forecast and the possible implications that might arise if the VIX trends upwards.</p><p>This analysis is based on a 12-week horizon; whereafter we&#39;ll revise our stance.</p><h2>VIX - Forecast</h2><p>It&#39;s assumed among market participants that the VIX has a negative correlation to the S&amp;P 500. The reason for this is that excess market volatility results in risk aversion. Thus, a rising VIX usually drains the stock market.</p><p>Nevertheless, I wanted to confirm the theory quantitatively. Therefore, I pulled a few datasheets from Yahoo Finance and did a correlation analysis. According to our correlation matrix, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF does indeed exhibit a negative.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ecc4d7ca8ede0e5c7996688a01b2c1\" tg-width=\"252\" tg-height=\"72\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>Instead of speculating, I went ahead and used a seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the VIX&#39;s level for the next twelve trading weeks. I plugged in returns since the first trading day of 1990 and set confidence intervals of 95%.</p><p>The result shows the VIX could exceed the 40 handle within the next twelve weeks and drag down the stock market (or at least the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b72d8ee25a793e5136d48c969f5fc5c\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>Note that the seasonal ARIMA model bases its inferences on its own retrospective data distributions. Thus, the provided model needs to be assessed in tandem with other influencing variables. Nonetheless, it&#39;s a valuable indicator; see the full distribution in the diagram below.</p><p><i>Denotations:</i></p><ul><li><i>Mean = Moving average (This is the actual forecast).</i></li><li><i>UL = Upper-Level Forecast</i></li><li><i>LL = Lower-Level Forecast</i></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d9751d117448cc474621bc3e9f81f9\" tg-width=\"318\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data From Yahoo Finance</span></p><h2>The Yield Curve And Macroeconomic Outlook</h2><p>The Yield Curve&#39;s inversion is an issue as this usually implies a recession&#39;s inbound. The inversion essentially conveys that interest rates will need to be dropped in the future to stimulate a struggling economy. In our opinion, the S&amp;P 500&#39;s earnings yield will likely buckle (yield curve induced) before we reach a market bottom.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d19af0b47778d64855d2393157c9159e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Gurufocus</span></p><p>Furthermore, parsimonious macroeconomic variables remain a concern. For example, U.S. inflation remains resilient despite the broader economy entering a contraction. In addition, the Eurozone&#39;s plagued with an energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine just keeps dragging on. Thus, we believe it will be some time before the fading economic climate seeks new pastures.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f855faa67ddeb5d97bbf448dd99be2c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>SPY&#39;s Sector Allocation Assessed</h2><p>At first glance, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust hosts numerous high-risk constituents. I say this because of the ETF&#39;s exposure to both the technology and financial services sectors.</p><p>Technology stocks are usually categorized by their high-growth properties; however, they&#39;re not always the most recession-proof. Furthermore, the financial sector is known for its fragility during periods where recession risk is running high. Thus, I don&#39;t feel comfortable investing in an ETF with more than 38% of its capital invested in potentially high-risk/poor-return assets.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0479a4bd348ce095f56311ab84a48f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"199\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Lastly, I would&#39;ve liked to have seen exposure to consumer defensive stocks instead of consumer cyclical stocks. Consumer cyclical stocks, as the name says, are cyclical and potentially dangerous to own in contractionary economic environments.</p><h2>An Argument For Upside</h2><p>At the end of the day, the financial markets don&#39;t always adhere to theoretical underpinnings. In addition, the zeitgeist tends to shift prematurely. I mean, the bull market during 2020&#39;s hard covid-19 lockdowns is proof.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ddd937a4d1120bf293da10bde59624\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Moreover, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust has recently surged out of a prolonged drawdown and now trades above its 10-day moving average. Additionally, the ETF&#39;s Relative-Strength-Index has broken through its oversold level and seems to be on an upward trajectory.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e82ccebf14d8ec4c9d6cfd8d05f34e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><h2>Is The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust a Buy, Hold, or Sell?</h2><p>Based on quantitative analysis, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust could head into a downward spiral as we forecast the VIX to reach the 40s, in turn dragging stocks down into the abyss. Moreover, qualitative theory backs up the quantitative research as market-based theory suggests that most of the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&#39;s constituents are prone to recession risk.</p><p>Although the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust has recently garnered momentum, we still believe the asset to be a sell, reaffirming our previous rating.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>Pearl Gray Equity and Research</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: The VIX Could Reach 40 And Wreak Havoc</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: The VIX Could Reach 40 And Wreak Havoc\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-15 08:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546682-spy-the-vix-could-reach-40-and-wreak-havoc><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryOur models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF down into the abyss.The Yield curve and macroeconomic factors paint a blurry picture.The SPDR S&P 500 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546682-spy-the-vix-could-reach-40-and-wreak-havoc\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","VIX":"标普500波动率指数"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546682-spy-the-vix-could-reach-40-and-wreak-havoc","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189401539","content_text":"SummaryOur models tell us that the VIX could settle above 40 and drag the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF down into the abyss.The Yield curve and macroeconomic factors paint a blurry picture.The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF's sector allocation likely feeds into a bear market capitulation.Although a price action analysis suggests that a short-term reversal is possible, we remain bearish for at least another 12 weeks.Scott OlsonToday we follow up on our previous SPDR S&P 500 TRUST ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) sell rating. Our previous article successfully argued that the yield curve and macroeconomic factors would wreak havoc. In today's article, our argument bases itself on aVIX index (VIX) forecast and the possible implications that might arise if the VIX trends upwards.This analysis is based on a 12-week horizon; whereafter we'll revise our stance.VIX - ForecastIt's assumed among market participants that the VIX has a negative correlation to the S&P 500. The reason for this is that excess market volatility results in risk aversion. Thus, a rising VIX usually drains the stock market.Nevertheless, I wanted to confirm the theory quantitatively. Therefore, I pulled a few datasheets from Yahoo Finance and did a correlation analysis. According to our correlation matrix, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF does indeed exhibit a negative.Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo FinanceInstead of speculating, I went ahead and used a seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the VIX's level for the next twelve trading weeks. I plugged in returns since the first trading day of 1990 and set confidence intervals of 95%.The result shows the VIX could exceed the 40 handle within the next twelve weeks and drag down the stock market (or at least the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF).Pearl Gray Equity and Research; Data from Yahoo FinanceNote that the seasonal ARIMA model bases its inferences on its own retrospective data distributions. Thus, the provided model needs to be assessed in tandem with other influencing variables. Nonetheless, it's a valuable indicator; see the full distribution in the diagram below.Denotations:Mean = Moving average (This is the actual forecast).UL = Upper-Level ForecastLL = Lower-Level ForecastPearl Gray Equity and Research; Data From Yahoo FinanceThe Yield Curve And Macroeconomic OutlookThe Yield Curve's inversion is an issue as this usually implies a recession's inbound. The inversion essentially conveys that interest rates will need to be dropped in the future to stimulate a struggling economy. In our opinion, the S&P 500's earnings yield will likely buckle (yield curve induced) before we reach a market bottom.GurufocusFurthermore, parsimonious macroeconomic variables remain a concern. For example, U.S. inflation remains resilient despite the broader economy entering a contraction. In addition, the Eurozone's plagued with an energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine just keeps dragging on. Thus, we believe it will be some time before the fading economic climate seeks new pastures.Data by YChartsSPY's Sector Allocation AssessedAt first glance, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust hosts numerous high-risk constituents. I say this because of the ETF's exposure to both the technology and financial services sectors.Technology stocks are usually categorized by their high-growth properties; however, they're not always the most recession-proof. Furthermore, the financial sector is known for its fragility during periods where recession risk is running high. Thus, I don't feel comfortable investing in an ETF with more than 38% of its capital invested in potentially high-risk/poor-return assets.Seeking AlphaLastly, I would've liked to have seen exposure to consumer defensive stocks instead of consumer cyclical stocks. Consumer cyclical stocks, as the name says, are cyclical and potentially dangerous to own in contractionary economic environments.An Argument For UpsideAt the end of the day, the financial markets don't always adhere to theoretical underpinnings. In addition, the zeitgeist tends to shift prematurely. I mean, the bull market during 2020's hard covid-19 lockdowns is proof.Data by YChartsMoreover, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has recently surged out of a prolonged drawdown and now trades above its 10-day moving average. Additionally, the ETF's Relative-Strength-Index has broken through its oversold level and seems to be on an upward trajectory.Seeking AlphaIs The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust a Buy, Hold, or Sell?Based on quantitative analysis, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust could head into a downward spiral as we forecast the VIX to reach the 40s, in turn dragging stocks down into the abyss. Moreover, qualitative theory backs up the quantitative research as market-based theory suggests that most of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's constituents are prone to recession risk.Although the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has recently garnered momentum, we still believe the asset to be a sell, reaffirming our previous rating.This article is written by Pearl Gray Equity and Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934744152,"gmtCreate":1663308419476,"gmtModify":1676537249728,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934744152","repostId":"2267657881","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2267657881","pubTimestamp":1663296968,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2267657881?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Should You Buy Stocks Now Or Wait? Here’s Warren Buffett’s Advice","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2267657881","media":"MotleyFool","summary":"Stock market investors have had a tough time so far this year. Major market benchmarks are sharply l","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stock market investors have had a tough time so far this year. Major market benchmarks are sharply lower from where they started the year, and every time Wall Street seems to have regained its footing, some new concern sends stocks reeling once again.</p><p>For those with money to invest, falling markets pose a conundrum. On one hand, share prices for thousands of stocks are much more attractive than they were a year ago, so if you still believe that a company&#39;s business will succeed in the long run, getting to invest in more shares at lower prices is a bargain opportunity. On the other hand, nobody wants to buy a stock only to see it continue to lose ground.</p><p>So should you buy stocks now, or wait for some future sign? To get some insight on that question, it&#39;s helpful to turn to the words of legendary investor Warren Buffett. The <b>Berkshire Hathaway </b>(NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) CEO has been through plenty of bear markets in his long investing career, and his long-term investing approach has paid off with market-crushing returns through thick and thin. Here&#39;s what Buffett has given as advice to those trying to decide whether to invest or wait in tough times.</p><h2>Buffett&#39;s advice for active investors</h2><p>Buffett has a couple of ideas for active investors that at first seem to be in conflict. When you think about it, though, the net takeaway is to be aggressive but selective in choosing stocks to buy during difficult market conditions.</p><p>Buffett&#39;s aggressive nature shines through in several statements. In the shareholder letter that came out in 2010, the Berkshire CEO wrote: &#34;Big opportunities come infrequently. When it&#39;s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.&#34; That approach in the aftermath of the financial crisis proved to be quite timely, as the ensuing bull market lasted throughout the 2010s and was one of the most prosperous periods in stock market history. It also underscores his much more commonly cited aphorism, &#34;Be greedy when markets are fearful.&#34;</p><p>Yet Buffett&#39;s success has largely come from being selective with his investments. Fortunately, tough times offer great opportunities to see the truth about companies. As he noted in the shareholder letter that came out in 2002, &#34;You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.&#34; Even poorly run companies can do well in bull markets, but bear markets separate the wheat from the chaff.</p><p>Moreover, Buffett isn&#39;t hesitant to hold off on investments he&#39;s not completely confident about making. As he was quoted at the 1999 Berkshire shareholder meeting as saying: &#34;The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don&#39;t have to swing at everything. You can wait for your pitch.&#34;</p><h2>Buffett&#39;s advice to less-active investors</h2><p>Not everyone wants to spend a lot of time figuring out which companies are most likely to outperform their peers. For those less-active investors, Buffett also has some simple advice: Dollar-cost average using index funds.</p><p>Here&#39;s specifically what Buffett told investors at Berkshire&#39;s 2004 annual shareholders&#39; meeting: &#34;If you accumulate a low-cost index fund over 10 years with fairly regular sums, I think you will probably do better than 90% of the people around you that take up investing at a similar time.&#34;</p><p>Fortunately, there are plenty of such investing vehicles available for those who don&#39;t want to dive into individual stocks. Tracking popular indexes like the <b>S&amp;P 500 </b>or even the entire universe of stocks is possible through mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, many of which charge 0.1% or less in annual expenses to investors.</p><h2>The right answer for you</h2><p>The most important attribute successful investors share is having an investing strategy. What that strategy looks like, though, can differ among investors without sacrificing the potential for success. Buffett clearly understands this, and it&#39;s why he acknowledges that different strategies will work better for different people.</p><p>In general, though, Buffett&#39;s a big believer in bucking market trends, taking advantage of bargain opportunities, and beating back your emotions. The times when you&#39;re likely most scared to invest have historically been the best times to get your money working the markets, and so even if you don&#39;t dive in right now, you won&#39;t want to wait too long before getting a solid investing plan in place.</p></body></html>","source":"motleyfoolau_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should You Buy Stocks Now Or Wait? Here’s Warren Buffett’s Advice</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShould You Buy Stocks Now Or Wait? Here’s Warren Buffett’s Advice\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-16 10:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/15/buy-stocks-now-or-wait-warren-buffett-advice/><strong>MotleyFool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock market investors have had a tough time so far this year. Major market benchmarks are sharply lower from where they started the year, and every time Wall Street seems to have regained its footing...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/15/buy-stocks-now-or-wait-warren-buffett-advice/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4176":"多领域控股"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/15/buy-stocks-now-or-wait-warren-buffett-advice/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2267657881","content_text":"Stock market investors have had a tough time so far this year. Major market benchmarks are sharply lower from where they started the year, and every time Wall Street seems to have regained its footing, some new concern sends stocks reeling once again.For those with money to invest, falling markets pose a conundrum. On one hand, share prices for thousands of stocks are much more attractive than they were a year ago, so if you still believe that a company's business will succeed in the long run, getting to invest in more shares at lower prices is a bargain opportunity. On the other hand, nobody wants to buy a stock only to see it continue to lose ground.So should you buy stocks now, or wait for some future sign? To get some insight on that question, it's helpful to turn to the words of legendary investor Warren Buffett. The Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) CEO has been through plenty of bear markets in his long investing career, and his long-term investing approach has paid off with market-crushing returns through thick and thin. Here's what Buffett has given as advice to those trying to decide whether to invest or wait in tough times.Buffett's advice for active investorsBuffett has a couple of ideas for active investors that at first seem to be in conflict. When you think about it, though, the net takeaway is to be aggressive but selective in choosing stocks to buy during difficult market conditions.Buffett's aggressive nature shines through in several statements. In the shareholder letter that came out in 2010, the Berkshire CEO wrote: \"Big opportunities come infrequently. When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.\" That approach in the aftermath of the financial crisis proved to be quite timely, as the ensuing bull market lasted throughout the 2010s and was one of the most prosperous periods in stock market history. It also underscores his much more commonly cited aphorism, \"Be greedy when markets are fearful.\"Yet Buffett's success has largely come from being selective with his investments. Fortunately, tough times offer great opportunities to see the truth about companies. As he noted in the shareholder letter that came out in 2002, \"You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.\" Even poorly run companies can do well in bull markets, but bear markets separate the wheat from the chaff.Moreover, Buffett isn't hesitant to hold off on investments he's not completely confident about making. As he was quoted at the 1999 Berkshire shareholder meeting as saying: \"The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything. You can wait for your pitch.\"Buffett's advice to less-active investorsNot everyone wants to spend a lot of time figuring out which companies are most likely to outperform their peers. For those less-active investors, Buffett also has some simple advice: Dollar-cost average using index funds.Here's specifically what Buffett told investors at Berkshire's 2004 annual shareholders' meeting: \"If you accumulate a low-cost index fund over 10 years with fairly regular sums, I think you will probably do better than 90% of the people around you that take up investing at a similar time.\"Fortunately, there are plenty of such investing vehicles available for those who don't want to dive into individual stocks. Tracking popular indexes like the S&P 500 or even the entire universe of stocks is possible through mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, many of which charge 0.1% or less in annual expenses to investors.The right answer for youThe most important attribute successful investors share is having an investing strategy. What that strategy looks like, though, can differ among investors without sacrificing the potential for success. Buffett clearly understands this, and it's why he acknowledges that different strategies will work better for different people.In general, though, Buffett's a big believer in bucking market trends, taking advantage of bargain opportunities, and beating back your emotions. The times when you're likely most scared to invest have historically been the best times to get your money working the markets, and so even if you don't dive in right now, you won't want to wait too long before getting a solid investing plan in place.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995373372,"gmtCreate":1661418852999,"gmtModify":1676536515183,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;ok","listText":"&nbsp;ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995373372","repostId":"2262660236","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930804225,"gmtCreate":1661921505470,"gmtModify":1676536604840,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930804225","repostId":"2263410145","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997716466,"gmtCreate":1661854532758,"gmtModify":1676536591114,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997716466","repostId":"2263457829","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995436469,"gmtCreate":1661493828954,"gmtModify":1676536530402,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"trap","listText":"trap","text":"trap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995436469","repostId":"1132528078","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996608821,"gmtCreate":1661154465765,"gmtModify":1676536463291,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok who cares","listText":"ok who cares","text":"ok who cares","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996608821","repostId":"1149567871","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998026042,"gmtCreate":1660903209789,"gmtModify":1676536421109,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998026042","repostId":"2260293366","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811681505,"gmtCreate":1630316769807,"gmtModify":1676530266654,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811681505","repostId":"1164294381","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":259249875484912,"gmtCreate":1704305903260,"gmtModify":1704318417892,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"xiaomi ev is a joke","listText":"xiaomi ev is a joke","text":"xiaomi ev is a joke","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/259249875484912","repostId":"2400877318","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986487810,"gmtCreate":1667004619530,"gmtModify":1676537847470,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Join Tiger's Halloween Adventure Win prizes worth up to USD 900*. Promotion T&amp;Cs apply.","listText":"Join Tiger's Halloween Adventure Win prizes worth up to USD 900*. Promotion T&amp;Cs apply.","text":"Join Tiger's Halloween Adventure Win prizes worth up to USD 900*. Promotion T&Cs apply.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986487810","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811681045,"gmtCreate":1630316737587,"gmtModify":1676530266534,"author":{"id":"3577333252819164","authorId":"3577333252819164","name":"Kiwitry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65900f6f17289e6a185c9b494eec06a9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577333252819164","authorIdStr":"3577333252819164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks for sharing","listText":"thanks for sharing","text":"thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811681045","repostId":"1164294381","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}