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2022-05-24
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$
5.14
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2021-09-23
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2021-09-22
Tkw
@Ivan_甘灿荣:一定要留意這一週:美股到了關鍵點位,推薦一個交易策略
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2021-09-22
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2021-09-15
Nice
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2021-09-13
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2021-08-31
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2021-08-18
Great
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2021-08-16
[Happy] [Happy] [Happy]
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2021-08-13
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2021-08-07
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2021-08-05
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2021-08-04
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2021-08-03
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2021-08-02
@kct360
hello
@一只踩不到热点的鲸:關於中概股的一點看法
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2021-07-31
Thabjs
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2021-07-31
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2021-07-30
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2021-07-29
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2021-07-28
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調整幅度有多大很難確定,畢竟沒有黑天鵝事件,更多的是利空事件的兌現。但最少上漲速度會大大下降,對付這種市場最好的辦法,還是對衝。 (標普近期頂部在4549,仍符合區間特點) 所以這裏還是給大家分享幾個美股的對衝策略,既有宏觀的,也有微觀的,看對大家是否合適。 一、買A股國企股價便宜的個股、空美股指 自從A股眉飛色舞以來,股市相對活躍,與去年不同的是,今年A股雖然指數漲幅不大(慢牛),但低價個股活躍度很高。而歷來如果A股有牛市,低價股通常不會缺席(漲幅要看有沒有消息配合),疊加最近大宗商品的通脹預期,資源類的低價股大家都可以關注。 而美股指進入高位區間,漲幅會受到限制,因此擔心繫統性風險的話,做空美股指會比較合適,從而形成了一個宏觀的對衝組合。 (連中石油都能大漲50%,其它個股也就不應該太悲觀了) 二、持有美股,做空美股指 對於堅定持有美股的朋友來說,美股指有風險,自然也可以用做空美股指的方式來對衝一定的風險。美股指近期已接近60日均線附近,也是近期美股很重要的多空分水嶺,若有效跌穿,可能會引起較大調整。(大夥別掉以輕心,美股指若調整10%,很多美股跌幅比這個大得多) 做空美股指的止損,可分批進入,一半以20日均線來止損,另一半可以新高作爲止損。 三、多道指/標普,空納指 納指波動性比道指強,跌下來幅度也比道指較多。當前納指道指比價仍處於歷史高位,中長期來說該價位介入仍不算吃虧,但該組合的平倉時機不容易把握,除非納指繫個股出現系統性利空,不然也只能短期投機一把,還不如策略一來的穩妥。 四、關於其它策略 雖然美股指看空,作爲對衝手段來說,是一","listText":"上週給大家講過,A股和美股進入到強弱反轉特徵,美股指弱勢,但A股個股表現強勢。其實美國有啥利空消息,已經不需要我多說了,Delta疫情的肆虐,美聯儲年底的Taper,美國債務上限,任何一個都可以是下跌的理由,畢竟漲多了出現調整是正常的。 調整幅度有多大很難確定,畢竟沒有黑天鵝事件,更多的是利空事件的兌現。但最少上漲速度會大大下降,對付這種市場最好的辦法,還是對衝。 (標普近期頂部在4549,仍符合區間特點) 所以這裏還是給大家分享幾個美股的對衝策略,既有宏觀的,也有微觀的,看對大家是否合適。 一、買A股國企股價便宜的個股、空美股指 自從A股眉飛色舞以來,股市相對活躍,與去年不同的是,今年A股雖然指數漲幅不大(慢牛),但低價個股活躍度很高。而歷來如果A股有牛市,低價股通常不會缺席(漲幅要看有沒有消息配合),疊加最近大宗商品的通脹預期,資源類的低價股大家都可以關注。 而美股指進入高位區間,漲幅會受到限制,因此擔心繫統性風險的話,做空美股指會比較合適,從而形成了一個宏觀的對衝組合。 (連中石油都能大漲50%,其它個股也就不應該太悲觀了) 二、持有美股,做空美股指 對於堅定持有美股的朋友來說,美股指有風險,自然也可以用做空美股指的方式來對衝一定的風險。美股指近期已接近60日均線附近,也是近期美股很重要的多空分水嶺,若有效跌穿,可能會引起較大調整。(大夥別掉以輕心,美股指若調整10%,很多美股跌幅比這個大得多) 做空美股指的止損,可分批進入,一半以20日均線來止損,另一半可以新高作爲止損。 三、多道指/標普,空納指 納指波動性比道指強,跌下來幅度也比道指較多。當前納指道指比價仍處於歷史高位,中長期來說該價位介入仍不算吃虧,但該組合的平倉時機不容易把握,除非納指繫個股出現系統性利空,不然也只能短期投機一把,還不如策略一來的穩妥。 四、關於其它策略 雖然美股指看空,作爲對衝手段來說,是一","text":"上週給大家講過,A股和美股進入到強弱反轉特徵,美股指弱勢,但A股個股表現強勢。其實美國有啥利空消息,已經不需要我多說了,Delta疫情的肆虐,美聯儲年底的Taper,美國債務上限,任何一個都可以是下跌的理由,畢竟漲多了出現調整是正常的。 調整幅度有多大很難確定,畢竟沒有黑天鵝事件,更多的是利空事件的兌現。但最少上漲速度會大大下降,對付這種市場最好的辦法,還是對衝。 (標普近期頂部在4549,仍符合區間特點) 所以這裏還是給大家分享幾個美股的對衝策略,既有宏觀的,也有微觀的,看對大家是否合適。 一、買A股國企股價便宜的個股、空美股指 自從A股眉飛色舞以來,股市相對活躍,與去年不同的是,今年A股雖然指數漲幅不大(慢牛),但低價個股活躍度很高。而歷來如果A股有牛市,低價股通常不會缺席(漲幅要看有沒有消息配合),疊加最近大宗商品的通脹預期,資源類的低價股大家都可以關注。 而美股指進入高位區間,漲幅會受到限制,因此擔心繫統性風險的話,做空美股指會比較合適,從而形成了一個宏觀的對衝組合。 (連中石油都能大漲50%,其它個股也就不應該太悲觀了) 二、持有美股,做空美股指 對於堅定持有美股的朋友來說,美股指有風險,自然也可以用做空美股指的方式來對衝一定的風險。美股指近期已接近60日均線附近,也是近期美股很重要的多空分水嶺,若有效跌穿,可能會引起較大調整。(大夥別掉以輕心,美股指若調整10%,很多美股跌幅比這個大得多) 做空美股指的止損,可分批進入,一半以20日均線來止損,另一半可以新高作爲止損。 三、多道指/標普,空納指 納指波動性比道指強,跌下來幅度也比道指較多。當前納指道指比價仍處於歷史高位,中長期來說該價位介入仍不算吃虧,但該組合的平倉時機不容易把握,除非納指繫個股出現系統性利空,不然也只能短期投機一把,還不如策略一來的穩妥。 四、關於其它策略 雖然美股指看空,作爲對衝手段來說,是一","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4dd5fb4c3f70e3bd157854908bf108","width":"2716","height":"1504"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9df33c106866980d98a0440a013536f","width":"2218","height":"1504"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f81d25f74edb1039d27c96ee560f5b4","width":"2226","height":"1506"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/869611528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869678806,"gmtCreate":1632286250005,"gmtModify":1676530743528,"author":{"id":"3577430258312718","authorId":"3577430258312718","name":"SC_121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d54bef157d3cd0a2558f018a2efce1d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577430258312718","authorIdStr":"3577430258312718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tks","listText":"Tks","text":"Tks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/869678806","repostId":"2169639321","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882886704,"gmtCreate":1631674279908,"gmtModify":1676530605921,"author":{"id":"3577430258312718","authorId":"3577430258312718","name":"SC_121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d54bef157d3cd0a2558f018a2efce1d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577430258312718","authorIdStr":"3577430258312718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/882886704","repostId":"1147706594","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886394618,"gmtCreate":1631548790434,"gmtModify":1676530573997,"author":{"id":"3577430258312718","authorId":"3577430258312718","name":"SC_121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d54bef157d3cd0a2558f018a2efce1d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577430258312718","authorIdStr":"3577430258312718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tks","listText":"Tks","text":"Tks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886394618","repostId":"2167630550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818675721,"gmtCreate":1630408638563,"gmtModify":1676530294943,"author":{"id":"3577430258312718","authorId":"3577430258312718","name":"SC_121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d54bef157d3cd0a2558f018a2efce1d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577430258312718","authorIdStr":"3577430258312718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like 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在一個長期投資組合中,持有8-10只股票,平均每隻倉位在10%左右是我個人認爲最舒適的配置。特別看好的標的,倉位也最好不要超過20%。這樣的話,即使一隻股票發生腰斬,總資金的損失也只在5%-10%之間。整體影響不會很大。 數據表明,如果賬戶回撤超過20%,挽回損失會開始變得困難。賬戶回撤超過40%,就很難做到長期穩定了。而長期穩定是一個投資者能夠在股市中生存下去的基礎。 我曾經講過財富增長曲線。 正向的財富增長曲線應該是長時間微小震盪,幾乎沒什麼變化。最終偶爾一兩次的劇烈增長使財富得到突破。 而不應該是長期增長最後直線墜落,也不應該是像心電圖一樣大起大落。 正向的財富增長曲線: 錯誤的財富增長曲線: 一些人覺得看準了就是應該滿倉幹。但問題是你如何來定義這個“看準”?是不是買了賺了就叫做看準,虧了就叫做沒看準?並且以自己的認知和專業程度,這個“看準”又有多少水分呢?這可能是一個值得思考的問題。 除了倉位管理,我們還要注意投資組合的單一性風險。 即不要全買同一板塊,或同一類型的股票。比如全買中概股,或全買科技股。因爲這樣即","listText":"今天主要針對最近暴跌的中概股分享一些看法和思考。 第一,關於這次事件我也研究了很多,其中我很認同的一種看法是此次事件是針對“第一次分配”的改革。這個話題不好展開說,不懂的可以搜一下“三次分配理論”。 中國歷史上很多朝代走到終點都是因爲貧富差距過大,不同階層的人口比例失衡。所以現在提早做這樣的事情也不難理解。 但這樣的改革必然會影響公司未來的利潤率,並且這個影響的時間還沒有定數。因此最近情緒雖然有所平復,但長期預期肯定是不如以往。我認爲至少未來半年到一年內會是這樣,所以倉位上還是應該謹慎。 第二,左側逆勢加倉一定一定要重視資金管理,不要加倉加到最後爆倉了。 最近我瞭解到很多人都爆倉了。先是重倉在線教育的,再是重倉中概股的。在我看來,他們的倉位管理本身是致命的。 在一個長期投資組合中,持有8-10只股票,平均每隻倉位在10%左右是我個人認爲最舒適的配置。特別看好的標的,倉位也最好不要超過20%。這樣的話,即使一隻股票發生腰斬,總資金的損失也只在5%-10%之間。整體影響不會很大。 數據表明,如果賬戶回撤超過20%,挽回損失會開始變得困難。賬戶回撤超過40%,就很難做到長期穩定了。而長期穩定是一個投資者能夠在股市中生存下去的基礎。 我曾經講過財富增長曲線。 正向的財富增長曲線應該是長時間微小震盪,幾乎沒什麼變化。最終偶爾一兩次的劇烈增長使財富得到突破。 而不應該是長期增長最後直線墜落,也不應該是像心電圖一樣大起大落。 正向的財富增長曲線: 錯誤的財富增長曲線: 一些人覺得看準了就是應該滿倉幹。但問題是你如何來定義這個“看準”?是不是買了賺了就叫做看準,虧了就叫做沒看準?並且以自己的認知和專業程度,這個“看準”又有多少水分呢?這可能是一個值得思考的問題。 除了倉位管理,我們還要注意投資組合的單一性風險。 即不要全買同一板塊,或同一類型的股票。比如全買中概股,或全買科技股。因爲這樣即","text":"今天主要針對最近暴跌的中概股分享一些看法和思考。 第一,關於這次事件我也研究了很多,其中我很認同的一種看法是此次事件是針對“第一次分配”的改革。這個話題不好展開說,不懂的可以搜一下“三次分配理論”。 中國歷史上很多朝代走到終點都是因爲貧富差距過大,不同階層的人口比例失衡。所以現在提早做這樣的事情也不難理解。 但這樣的改革必然會影響公司未來的利潤率,並且這個影響的時間還沒有定數。因此最近情緒雖然有所平復,但長期預期肯定是不如以往。我認爲至少未來半年到一年內會是這樣,所以倉位上還是應該謹慎。 第二,左側逆勢加倉一定一定要重視資金管理,不要加倉加到最後爆倉了。 最近我瞭解到很多人都爆倉了。先是重倉在線教育的,再是重倉中概股的。在我看來,他們的倉位管理本身是致命的。 在一個長期投資組合中,持有8-10只股票,平均每隻倉位在10%左右是我個人認爲最舒適的配置。特別看好的標的,倉位也最好不要超過20%。這樣的話,即使一隻股票發生腰斬,總資金的損失也只在5%-10%之間。整體影響不會很大。 數據表明,如果賬戶回撤超過20%,挽回損失會開始變得困難。賬戶回撤超過40%,就很難做到長期穩定了。而長期穩定是一個投資者能夠在股市中生存下去的基礎。 我曾經講過財富增長曲線。 正向的財富增長曲線應該是長時間微小震盪,幾乎沒什麼變化。最終偶爾一兩次的劇烈增長使財富得到突破。 而不應該是長期增長最後直線墜落,也不應該是像心電圖一樣大起大落。 正向的財富增長曲線: 錯誤的財富增長曲線: 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