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2023-01-17

Nice

Microsoft Isn't Immune to a Recession but It Should Gain Share in Key Areas

2023-01-10

Good

S&P 500 Near Flat As Investors Weigh Chances of Less Aggressive Rate Hikes

2023-01-07

Good

Is Now the Time to Go All-In on Tesla Stock?

2023-01-04

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5 Cryptocurrencies to Avoid Like the Plague in 2023

2023-01-02

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New Year's Market Closing, Jobs Data, Fed Minutes, and More for Investors to Watch This Week

2022-12-31

O ok

US STOCKS-Wall St Ends 2022 With Biggest Annual Drop Since 2008

2022-12-30

Sure

2 No-Brainer Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist for 2023

2022-12-29

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Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity

2022-12-28

God

6 Numbers that Defined 2022

2022-12-26

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Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market

2022-12-25

Nicr

Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022

2022-12-24

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Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022

2022-12-23

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7 Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy Now

2022-12-22

Okay

Apple Stock: Bull vs. Bear

2022-12-21

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US STOCKS-Wall St Closes Slightly Higher After Four-Day Sell off

2022-12-20

God

Elon Musk Is a Genius Market Timer. That’s Bad News for Tesla Stock

2022-12-19

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-12-18

Nice

Better Buy: Amazon vs. Apple

2022-12-16

Of course not

Bed Bath & Beyond Is Down 88% From Its High. Time to Buy?

2022-12-15

Lol

Roblox Plunges 14% As Strong U.S. Dollar Hits November's Bookings

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07:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Isn't Immune to a Recession but It Should Gain Share in Key Areas","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2304532121","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Like the rest of its tech brethren, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) had a difficult 2022, as its shares fel","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like the rest of its tech brethren, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) had a difficult 2022, as its shares fell more than 25% on worries over rising interest rates, surging inflation and a slowing global economy.</p><p>While 2023 is not expected to be quite as bad as 2022, sentiments remain strong about the global economy slowing further and potential tip into a recession. However, there are some views on Wall Street that the software giant could still see business improving this year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss, who has an overweight rating on Microsoft (MSFT), noted the company is likely to benefit from continued IT spending and is thought of higher than where it&#39;s positioned in the investment firm&#39;s survey of chief information officers.</p><p>The survey, which expects software spending to grow 3.3% in 2023, pointed out that Microsoft (MSFT) is &#34;better positioned than most&#34; in a downturn, given that it is still the leader in expected IT budget gains due to the shift to the cloud. Additionally, the survey added that Microsoft (MSFT) is expected to have a net of 40% of expected share gains for IT wallet spending, well ahead of Amazon (AMZN), which is expected to capture 24% of gains.</p><p>Weiss said that Microsoft (MSFT) expanded its lead over Amazon (AMZN), with about 48% of the CIOs surveyed now expecting Microsoft &#34;to see the largest incremental IT budget share gains over the next three years,&#34; compared to 15% for Amazon.</p><p>In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) has continued to make gains in other areas such as security, cloud computing, data warehousing, business intelligence and analytics, digital transformation and artificial intelligence and machine learning.</p><p>The company may make further advances in AI if it integrates OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT into its products, including Bing and Office, something the company has reportedly discussed.</p><p>Lastly, Microsoft (MSFT) looks poised to benefit as customers slim down the number of vendors in areas such as data management and automation, according to the CIO survey.</p><p>&#34;With CIOs increasingly looking to consolidate vendors in a slowing spending environment, we see Microsoft as best positioned to benefit from consolidation given its breadth of functions and alignment to CIO priority list and defensive IT projects,&#34; Weiss added.</p><p>Despite the expected benefits this year, not everything is coming up roses for Microsoft (MSFT).</p><p>Firstly, it will have to deal with a weaker IT spending environment, though that is something that every company in the space will likely have to face.</p><p>Additionally, there is the potential that the expectations seen in the survey for Microsoft (MSFT) do not come to fruition, including potential downgrades for Microsoft 365, previously known as Office 365, due to its pricing.</p><p>According to the survey, 8% of CIOs said they would downgrade subscription tiers in the next year, while 5% said they would switch to lower-priced versions of Microsoft 365, with fewer options, which would impact Microsoft&#39;s (MSFT) revenue.</p><p>Nonetheless, the expectation is that Microsoft (MSFT) will wind up better than its peers, a thesis that has not yet shown up in its stock, as it trades at roughly 19 times estimated 2024 earnings, compared to roughly 30 times for peers.</p><p>&#34;While there are definitely some indicators Microsoft is not immune from the weaker IT spending environment, the preponderance of evidence in our survey work suggests favorable near-term consolidation trends and further improvement in the longer-term positioning against core secular growth initiatives,&#34; Weiss wrote.</p><p>On Thursday, Citi listed Microsoft (MSFT) among its favorite enterprise application software stocks for 2023.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Isn't Immune to a Recession but It Should Gain Share in Key Areas</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Isn't Immune to a Recession but It Should Gain Share in Key Areas\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-17 07:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3924552-microsoft-not-immune-recession-should-gain-share><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Like the rest of its tech brethren, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) had a difficult 2022, as its shares fell more than 25% on worries over rising interest rates, surging inflation and a slowing global ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3924552-microsoft-not-immune-recession-should-gain-share\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3924552-microsoft-not-immune-recession-should-gain-share","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2304532121","content_text":"Like the rest of its tech brethren, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) had a difficult 2022, as its shares fell more than 25% on worries over rising interest rates, surging inflation and a slowing global economy.While 2023 is not expected to be quite as bad as 2022, sentiments remain strong about the global economy slowing further and potential tip into a recession. However, there are some views on Wall Street that the software giant could still see business improving this year.Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss, who has an overweight rating on Microsoft (MSFT), noted the company is likely to benefit from continued IT spending and is thought of higher than where it's positioned in the investment firm's survey of chief information officers.The survey, which expects software spending to grow 3.3% in 2023, pointed out that Microsoft (MSFT) is \"better positioned than most\" in a downturn, given that it is still the leader in expected IT budget gains due to the shift to the cloud. Additionally, the survey added that Microsoft (MSFT) is expected to have a net of 40% of expected share gains for IT wallet spending, well ahead of Amazon (AMZN), which is expected to capture 24% of gains.Weiss said that Microsoft (MSFT) expanded its lead over Amazon (AMZN), with about 48% of the CIOs surveyed now expecting Microsoft \"to see the largest incremental IT budget share gains over the next three years,\" compared to 15% for Amazon.In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) has continued to make gains in other areas such as security, cloud computing, data warehousing, business intelligence and analytics, digital transformation and artificial intelligence and machine learning.The company may make further advances in AI if it integrates OpenAI's ChatGPT into its products, including Bing and Office, something the company has reportedly discussed.Lastly, Microsoft (MSFT) looks poised to benefit as customers slim down the number of vendors in areas such as data management and automation, according to the CIO survey.\"With CIOs increasingly looking to consolidate vendors in a slowing spending environment, we see Microsoft as best positioned to benefit from consolidation given its breadth of functions and alignment to CIO priority list and defensive IT projects,\" Weiss added.Despite the expected benefits this year, not everything is coming up roses for Microsoft (MSFT).Firstly, it will have to deal with a weaker IT spending environment, though that is something that every company in the space will likely have to face.Additionally, there is the potential that the expectations seen in the survey for Microsoft (MSFT) do not come to fruition, including potential downgrades for Microsoft 365, previously known as Office 365, due to its pricing.According to the survey, 8% of CIOs said they would downgrade subscription tiers in the next year, while 5% said they would switch to lower-priced versions of Microsoft 365, with fewer options, which would impact Microsoft's (MSFT) revenue.Nonetheless, the expectation is that Microsoft (MSFT) will wind up better than its peers, a thesis that has not yet shown up in its stock, as it trades at roughly 19 times estimated 2024 earnings, compared to roughly 30 times for peers.\"While there are definitely some indicators Microsoft is not immune from the weaker IT spending environment, the preponderance of evidence in our survey work suggests favorable near-term consolidation trends and further improvement in the longer-term positioning against core secular growth initiatives,\" Weiss wrote.On Thursday, Citi listed Microsoft (MSFT) among its favorite enterprise application software stocks for 2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953490198,"gmtCreate":1673305150214,"gmtModify":1676538814217,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953490198","repostId":"2302085105","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2302085105","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1673303531,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2302085105?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-10 06:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 Near Flat As Investors Weigh Chances of Less Aggressive Rate Hikes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2302085105","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Tech shares gain* Macy's, Lululemon drop on holiday-quarter warnings* Indexes: Dow down 0.3%, S&P ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Tech shares gain</p><p>* Macy&#39;s, Lululemon drop on holiday-quarter warnings</p><p>* Indexes: Dow down 0.3%, S&amp;P 500 down 0.1%, Nasdaq up 0.6%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afd5e3c8fc21ea4a74007bff962a46cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>NEW YORK, Jan 9 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 index erased early gains to close nearly flat on Monday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will become less aggressive with its interest rate hikes were offset by lingering worries about inflation.</p><p>The Dow ended lower, and the Nasdaq Composite ended well off the day&#39;s highs.</p><p>Investors are awaiting comments Tuesday from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who some strategists expect could say more time is needed to show inflation is under control.</p><p>Money market bets were showing 77% odds of a 25-basis point hike in the Fed&#39;s February policy meeting.</p><p>A consumer prices report due Thursday could be key for rate expectations, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist, LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. &#34;The CPI report this week is going to be essential for fine-tuning the Fed funds futures market.&#34;</p><p>Investors also may have sold some shares after recent strong market gains, said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago. &#34;You&#39;re seeing a little bit of profit-taking ahead of the CPI number due out this week.&#34;</p><p>The technology sector gained as Treasury yields fell. Consumer discretionary stocks also rose, with Amazon.com Inc up 1.5% after Jefferies said it saw cost pressures easing for the e-commerce giant in the second half of the year.</p><p>Also, S&amp;P 500 companies are about to kick off the fourth-quarter earnings period, with results from top U.S. banks expected later this week.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 112.96 points, or 0.34%, to 33,517.65, the S&amp;P 500 lost 2.99 points, or 0.08%, to 3,892.09 and the Nasdaq Composite added 66.36 points, or 0.63%, to 10,635.65.</p><p>Shares of Broadcom Inc fell in late trading to end down 2% after Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Apple Inc plans to drop a Broadcom chip in 2025 and use an in-house design instead.</p><p>Friday&#39;s jobs report, which showed a moderation in wage increases, lifted hopes that the Fed might become less aggressive in its rate-hike push to reduce inflation.</p><p>Tesla Inc shares rose 5.9% after the electric-vehicle maker indicated longer waiting times for some versions of the Model Y in China, signaling the recent price cuts could be stoking demand.</p><p>Macy&#39;s Inc fell 7.7% and Lululemon Athletica Inc dropped 9.3% after both retailers issued disappointing holiday-quarter forecasts.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.35 billion shares, compared with the 10.90 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.48-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 129 new highs and 32 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 Near Flat As Investors Weigh Chances of Less Aggressive Rate Hikes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 Near Flat As Investors Weigh Chances of Less Aggressive Rate Hikes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-10 06:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Tech shares gain</p><p>* Macy&#39;s, Lululemon drop on holiday-quarter warnings</p><p>* Indexes: Dow down 0.3%, S&amp;P 500 down 0.1%, Nasdaq up 0.6%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afd5e3c8fc21ea4a74007bff962a46cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>NEW YORK, Jan 9 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 index erased early gains to close nearly flat on Monday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will become less aggressive with its interest rate hikes were offset by lingering worries about inflation.</p><p>The Dow ended lower, and the Nasdaq Composite ended well off the day&#39;s highs.</p><p>Investors are awaiting comments Tuesday from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who some strategists expect could say more time is needed to show inflation is under control.</p><p>Money market bets were showing 77% odds of a 25-basis point hike in the Fed&#39;s February policy meeting.</p><p>A consumer prices report due Thursday could be key for rate expectations, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist, LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. &#34;The CPI report this week is going to be essential for fine-tuning the Fed funds futures market.&#34;</p><p>Investors also may have sold some shares after recent strong market gains, said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago. &#34;You&#39;re seeing a little bit of profit-taking ahead of the CPI number due out this week.&#34;</p><p>The technology sector gained as Treasury yields fell. Consumer discretionary stocks also rose, with Amazon.com Inc up 1.5% after Jefferies said it saw cost pressures easing for the e-commerce giant in the second half of the year.</p><p>Also, S&amp;P 500 companies are about to kick off the fourth-quarter earnings period, with results from top U.S. banks expected later this week.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 112.96 points, or 0.34%, to 33,517.65, the S&amp;P 500 lost 2.99 points, or 0.08%, to 3,892.09 and the Nasdaq Composite added 66.36 points, or 0.63%, to 10,635.65.</p><p>Shares of Broadcom Inc fell in late trading to end down 2% after Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Apple Inc plans to drop a Broadcom chip in 2025 and use an in-house design instead.</p><p>Friday&#39;s jobs report, which showed a moderation in wage increases, lifted hopes that the Fed might become less aggressive in its rate-hike push to reduce inflation.</p><p>Tesla Inc shares rose 5.9% after the electric-vehicle maker indicated longer waiting times for some versions of the Model Y in China, signaling the recent price cuts could be stoking demand.</p><p>Macy&#39;s Inc fell 7.7% and Lululemon Athletica Inc dropped 9.3% after both retailers issued disappointing holiday-quarter forecasts.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.35 billion shares, compared with the 10.90 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.48-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 129 new highs and 32 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","AMZN":"亚马逊","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","M":"梅西百货","AVGO":"博通","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4507":"流媒体概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4576":"AR","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC",".DJI":"道琼斯","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4103":"百货商店"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2302085105","content_text":"* Tech shares gain* Macy's, Lululemon drop on holiday-quarter warnings* Indexes: Dow down 0.3%, S&P 500 down 0.1%, Nasdaq up 0.6%NEW YORK, Jan 9 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 index erased early gains to close nearly flat on Monday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will become less aggressive with its interest rate hikes were offset by lingering worries about inflation.The Dow ended lower, and the Nasdaq Composite ended well off the day's highs.Investors are awaiting comments Tuesday from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who some strategists expect could say more time is needed to show inflation is under control.Money market bets were showing 77% odds of a 25-basis point hike in the Fed's February policy meeting.A consumer prices report due Thursday could be key for rate expectations, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist, LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. \"The CPI report this week is going to be essential for fine-tuning the Fed funds futures market.\"Investors also may have sold some shares after recent strong market gains, said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago. \"You're seeing a little bit of profit-taking ahead of the CPI number due out this week.\"The technology sector gained as Treasury yields fell. Consumer discretionary stocks also rose, with Amazon.com Inc up 1.5% after Jefferies said it saw cost pressures easing for the e-commerce giant in the second half of the year.Also, S&P 500 companies are about to kick off the fourth-quarter earnings period, with results from top U.S. banks expected later this week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 112.96 points, or 0.34%, to 33,517.65, the S&P 500 lost 2.99 points, or 0.08%, to 3,892.09 and the Nasdaq Composite added 66.36 points, or 0.63%, to 10,635.65.Shares of Broadcom Inc fell in late trading to end down 2% after Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Apple Inc plans to drop a Broadcom chip in 2025 and use an in-house design instead.Friday's jobs report, which showed a moderation in wage increases, lifted hopes that the Fed might become less aggressive in its rate-hike push to reduce inflation.Tesla Inc shares rose 5.9% after the electric-vehicle maker indicated longer waiting times for some versions of the Model Y in China, signaling the recent price cuts could be stoking demand.Macy's Inc fell 7.7% and Lululemon Athletica Inc dropped 9.3% after both retailers issued disappointing holiday-quarter forecasts.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.35 billion shares, compared with the 10.90 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.48-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 129 new highs and 32 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953013337,"gmtCreate":1673101068929,"gmtModify":1676538786717,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953013337","repostId":"2301620946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2301620946","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673051740,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2301620946?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-07 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Now the Time to Go All-In on Tesla Stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2301620946","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla stock has never been this inexpensive, but there are some good reasons for that.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>KEY POINTS</h2><ul><li>If you think Tesla is just a consumer EV play, then it&#39;s not a compelling buy.</li><li>But if you think Tesla will become a major player in the commercial trucking industry and be a leader in autonomous technology, then it&#39;s a great time to buy.</li><li>Tesla could fail to meet its lofty goals over the next couple of years.</li></ul><p><b>Tesla</b> stock had a rough first day of the 2023 trading calendar year, falling 12.2%. But shares were down as much as 15% at one point during the session.</p><p>The sell-off was largely due to Tesla&#39;s disappointing delivery numbers for Q4 2022, which were released on Monday when markets were closed. Tesla achieved record deliveries of 1.314 million vehicles in 2022, including 405,278 deliveries in Q4 alone. But many analysts, such as Wedbush Securities&#39; Dan Ives, were expecting a Q4 delivery figure in the range of 415,000 to 420,000.</p><p>Tesla produced 8.5% more vehicles than it delivered for the quarter. It remains to be seen if the gap between production and deliveries was due to decreasing demand or logistics issues. Either way, the lower-than-expected delivery number adds yet another cause for concern to a stock that is down a staggering 59% in the last three months.</p><p>With the stock hitting a two-year intraday low on Monday, is now the time to go all-in? Or could there be more pain ahead for the electric vehicle (EV) industry leader?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9647ab92415cfa85ca674b8957ba91b9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Tesla.</span></p><h2>A tale of two investment theses</h2><p><b>Daniel Foelber:</b> As tempting as it may be to buy Tesla amid the steep sell-off, I think investors should first take a step back and decide what they believe Tesla&#39;s value proposition really is.</p><p>There are many facets to Tesla&#39;s business. The core is the production and sale of electric cars to consumers, which has a lot of room for growth in its own right.</p><p>But the bigger growth story is arguably the company&#39;s penetration into the trucking industry, as well as its proprietary autonomous driving technology.</p><p>There are plenty of companies that are working on lowering emissions for Class 8 trucks by substituting diesel for compressed natural gas or using alternative fuels. But no company has achieved the milestones that Tesla has with its electric semi-truck. In November of last year, Tesla&#39;s semi-truck achieved 500 miles of range with a full load. By comparison, <b>Volvo</b>&#39;s electric FM truck has a range of over 235 miles. However, the electric semi-truck race is just as much about cost and availability as it is about specs. Even so, Tesla&#39;s progress indicates that the electric semi-truck industry could one day end up being more profitable for Tesla than its consumer cars. But that&#39;s a big &#34;if.&#34; And in the meantime, it&#39;s going to cost a lot of money to scale semi-truck production.</p><p>In addition to the semi-truck and autonomous driving markets, there&#39;s the opportunity for Tesla to expand its renewable energy generation and storage efforts, which remain a sideshow at this point.</p><p>Investors interested in the EV industry are getting a rare opportunity to buy Tesla stock at its lowest forward price to earnings ratio ever. However, the stock is still more expensive today than it was from 2016 to 2019 based on its tangible book value.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febd5852afe0bfb3481820aec769acae\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"496\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TSLA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</span></p><p>The company is likely to take market share in a slowdown because it has the balance sheet and operating margin to handle weakening demand better than its EV competitors. That advantage alone justifies opening a starter position in Tesla stock.</p><p>But if you&#39;re the kind of investor that believes Tesla has a chance to disrupt the autonomous driving industry and take market share across the transportation industry (including the trucking industry), then making Tesla a top-10 -- or even top-five -- holding makes a lot of sense, especially at this price.</p><h2>Accumulation is a safer approach</h2><p><b>Howard Smith:</b> Investors have had high expectations for Tesla over the past three years, and have assigned it a correspondingly high valuation. But for those that believe the company and EV sector will continue to grow, the 65% drop in the stock price in 2022 provides a compelling opportunity to invest in the industry leader. I do believe that, and I did recently add Tesla shares to my portfolio. That doesn&#39;t mean it&#39;s necessarily a good idea to jump in with an outsized position, however.</p><p>That&#39;s especially true with Tesla, since it is in a still-evolving sector and could disappoint investors in the near term. A case in point was its recently announced fourth-quarter vehicle delivery data. The shortfall in deliveries came as demand has been impacted by increasing competition, slowing global economies, and the effects of COVID-19 spreading in China.</p><p>Looking at the bigger picture, however, the company&#39;s growth remains strong. Its production increased 47% in 2022 versus 2021. But deliveries only increased 40%, leading investors to believe Tesla might not, in fact, meet its previous projections to average 50% growth over the next few years.</p><p>That said, now seems to be a good time to begin buying, or adding to your position. Even if Tesla grows earnings by only 30%, it recently was priced at a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of below 1.0 based on 2023 estimates. Accumulating shares makes sense now for long-term investors, but there may be better prices to add more later. That&#39;s a good reason not to jump in all at once.</p><h2>Tesla is a battleground stock for a reason</h2><p>As swift and brutal as the Tesla stock sell-off has been, there are valid reasons why Tesla stock deserved to fall. The valuation had gotten nosebleed, to put it lightly. Tesla stock rose 743% in 2020 and then <i>another</i> 50% in 2021 for a two-year gain of -- wait for it -- 1,263%.</p><p>Tesla stock could easily set new all-time highs in the future. The problem with stock prices rising so quickly is that the company has to hit lofty goals to make the valuation reasonable. And as impressive as Tesla&#39;s growth has been, a mix of macroeconomic and self-inflicted challenges are making those lofty goals increasingly unlikely. Missing delivery expectation paired with the possibility of a recession (and slowing demand for discretionary purchases like cars) adds another layer of issues impacting Tesla.</p><p>In sum, now isn&#39;t the time to go all-in on Tesla stock. But it is the perfect opportunity to reassess what your investment thesis for Tesla is, as well as if you want to open a starter position in Tesla or add to Tesla stock now that it&#39;s at a reasonable valuation.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Now the Time to Go All-In on Tesla Stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Now the Time to Go All-In on Tesla Stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-07 08:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/06/is-now-the-time-to-go-all-in-on-tesla-stock/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSIf you think Tesla is just a consumer EV play, then it's not a compelling buy.But if you think Tesla will become a major player in the commercial trucking industry and be a leader in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/06/is-now-the-time-to-go-all-in-on-tesla-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/06/is-now-the-time-to-go-all-in-on-tesla-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2301620946","content_text":"KEY POINTSIf you think Tesla is just a consumer EV play, then it's not a compelling buy.But if you think Tesla will become a major player in the commercial trucking industry and be a leader in autonomous technology, then it's a great time to buy.Tesla could fail to meet its lofty goals over the next couple of years.Tesla stock had a rough first day of the 2023 trading calendar year, falling 12.2%. But shares were down as much as 15% at one point during the session.The sell-off was largely due to Tesla's disappointing delivery numbers for Q4 2022, which were released on Monday when markets were closed. Tesla achieved record deliveries of 1.314 million vehicles in 2022, including 405,278 deliveries in Q4 alone. But many analysts, such as Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives, were expecting a Q4 delivery figure in the range of 415,000 to 420,000.Tesla produced 8.5% more vehicles than it delivered for the quarter. It remains to be seen if the gap between production and deliveries was due to decreasing demand or logistics issues. Either way, the lower-than-expected delivery number adds yet another cause for concern to a stock that is down a staggering 59% in the last three months.With the stock hitting a two-year intraday low on Monday, is now the time to go all-in? Or could there be more pain ahead for the electric vehicle (EV) industry leader?Image source: Tesla.A tale of two investment thesesDaniel Foelber: As tempting as it may be to buy Tesla amid the steep sell-off, I think investors should first take a step back and decide what they believe Tesla's value proposition really is.There are many facets to Tesla's business. The core is the production and sale of electric cars to consumers, which has a lot of room for growth in its own right.But the bigger growth story is arguably the company's penetration into the trucking industry, as well as its proprietary autonomous driving technology.There are plenty of companies that are working on lowering emissions for Class 8 trucks by substituting diesel for compressed natural gas or using alternative fuels. But no company has achieved the milestones that Tesla has with its electric semi-truck. In November of last year, Tesla's semi-truck achieved 500 miles of range with a full load. By comparison, Volvo's electric FM truck has a range of over 235 miles. However, the electric semi-truck race is just as much about cost and availability as it is about specs. Even so, Tesla's progress indicates that the electric semi-truck industry could one day end up being more profitable for Tesla than its consumer cars. But that's a big \"if.\" And in the meantime, it's going to cost a lot of money to scale semi-truck production.In addition to the semi-truck and autonomous driving markets, there's the opportunity for Tesla to expand its renewable energy generation and storage efforts, which remain a sideshow at this point.Investors interested in the EV industry are getting a rare opportunity to buy Tesla stock at its lowest forward price to earnings ratio ever. However, the stock is still more expensive today than it was from 2016 to 2019 based on its tangible book value.TSLA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YChartsThe company is likely to take market share in a slowdown because it has the balance sheet and operating margin to handle weakening demand better than its EV competitors. That advantage alone justifies opening a starter position in Tesla stock.But if you're the kind of investor that believes Tesla has a chance to disrupt the autonomous driving industry and take market share across the transportation industry (including the trucking industry), then making Tesla a top-10 -- or even top-five -- holding makes a lot of sense, especially at this price.Accumulation is a safer approachHoward Smith: Investors have had high expectations for Tesla over the past three years, and have assigned it a correspondingly high valuation. But for those that believe the company and EV sector will continue to grow, the 65% drop in the stock price in 2022 provides a compelling opportunity to invest in the industry leader. I do believe that, and I did recently add Tesla shares to my portfolio. That doesn't mean it's necessarily a good idea to jump in with an outsized position, however.That's especially true with Tesla, since it is in a still-evolving sector and could disappoint investors in the near term. A case in point was its recently announced fourth-quarter vehicle delivery data. The shortfall in deliveries came as demand has been impacted by increasing competition, slowing global economies, and the effects of COVID-19 spreading in China.Looking at the bigger picture, however, the company's growth remains strong. Its production increased 47% in 2022 versus 2021. But deliveries only increased 40%, leading investors to believe Tesla might not, in fact, meet its previous projections to average 50% growth over the next few years.That said, now seems to be a good time to begin buying, or adding to your position. Even if Tesla grows earnings by only 30%, it recently was priced at a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of below 1.0 based on 2023 estimates. Accumulating shares makes sense now for long-term investors, but there may be better prices to add more later. That's a good reason not to jump in all at once.Tesla is a battleground stock for a reasonAs swift and brutal as the Tesla stock sell-off has been, there are valid reasons why Tesla stock deserved to fall. The valuation had gotten nosebleed, to put it lightly. Tesla stock rose 743% in 2020 and then another 50% in 2021 for a two-year gain of -- wait for it -- 1,263%.Tesla stock could easily set new all-time highs in the future. The problem with stock prices rising so quickly is that the company has to hit lofty goals to make the valuation reasonable. And as impressive as Tesla's growth has been, a mix of macroeconomic and self-inflicted challenges are making those lofty goals increasingly unlikely. Missing delivery expectation paired with the possibility of a recession (and slowing demand for discretionary purchases like cars) adds another layer of issues impacting Tesla.In sum, now isn't the time to go all-in on Tesla stock. But it is the perfect opportunity to reassess what your investment thesis for Tesla is, as well as if you want to open a starter position in Tesla or add to Tesla stock now that it's at a reasonable valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950749109,"gmtCreate":1672844123401,"gmtModify":1676538746487,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950749109","repostId":"2300105437","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2300105437","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1672845792,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2300105437?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-04 23:23","market":"other","language":"en","title":"5 Cryptocurrencies to Avoid Like the Plague in 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2300105437","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Some of the most popular digital currencies on the planet could lose most of their value this year.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>What a difference a year makes. Following a scorching-hot 2021 for the cryptocurrency space, the combined value of more than 21,000 digital currencies sank by $1.4 trillion, or nearly 64%, to $795 billion in 2022. With equities plunging into a bear market and cryptocurrencies failing to decouple from the stock market, this highly volatile asset class has been clobbered.</p><p>Unfortunately, an encore performance could be in the works for the new year. While a number of crypto projects have demonstrated promise, other popular digital currencies are nothing short of investment land mines. What follows are five cryptocurrencies to avoid like the plague in 2023.</p><h2>Shiba Inu</h2><p>The first cryptocurrency to avoid at all cost in the new year is arguably the hottest digital currency of 2021: meme coin <b>Shiba Inu</b>. Between midnight on Jan. 1, 2021, and its intraday peak on Oct. 27 of the same year, SHIB tokens rallied more than 121,000,000%. Put another way, if you had invested $1 in Shiba Inu the moment 2021 began, you were a millionaire less than 10 months later. By year&#39;s end, SHIB coins had ended higher by approximately 46,000,000%.</p><p>But 2022 was a different story for this retail-investing hero. At points throughout the year, SHIB retraced more than 90% from its all-time high of $0.00008841. Chances are that 2023 will bring more of the same.</p><p>The biggest issue for Shiba Inu is that it lacks anything resembling a competitive advantage or differentiation. It&#39;s an ERC-20 coin built on the <b>Ethereum</b> blockchain, which is a fancy way of saying that it&#39;s effectively nothing more than a payment coin.</p><p>There are countless digital currencies that could, in theory, be used for payments, if merchants would allow for it. To boot, it&#39;s not even a popular payment option, with the number of merchants accepting SHIB stalling in the mid-600s throughout most of 2022, according to data from online business directory Cryptwerk.</p><p>Another issue for Shiba Inu is that its catalysts have fallen flat. The public domain test of level-2 blockchain solution Shibarium, which is designed to lower transaction fees and accelerate the development of blockchain-based gaming, failed to materialize in 2022. Further, interest in non-fungible tokens (NFTs) has fallen off a cliff. NFTs are the lifeblood of blockchain-driven gaming, which puts a damper on Shiba Inu&#39;s gaming and metaverse ambitions.</p><p>History has also been incredibly unkind to payment coins that deliver life-altering gains over a short period. It&#39;s not uncommon for payment coins to retrace in excess of 99% over a two-year stretch following a monumental gain. My suspicion is SHIB is still a long way from reaching its bottom.</p><h2>Terra Classic and TerraClassicUSD</h2><p>The second and third cryptocurrencies to avoid like the plague in 2023 are <b>Terra Classic</b>, the digital currency that was once known as Terra, and <b>TerraClassicUSD</b>, which had previously been known as TerraUSD. These two coins are being lumped together because they&#39;re linked at the hip.</p><p>Prior to May 2022, these two cryptocurrencies appeared revolutionary and surefire. TerraClassicUSD was a stablecoin offering yields of up to 20% that was pegged to the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Terra Classic, the native token for TerraClassicUSD, was being minted or burned based on an algorithm to help TerraClassicUSD maintain its peg. It all worked great -- until it didn&#39;t.</p><p>Over $2 billion in TerraClassicUSD was unstaked in early May, which caused TerraClassicUSD to unpeg and led to the minting of trillions of Terra Classic tokens. In a matter of days, more than $60 billion in market value was lost, and a seemingly surefire money machine for crypto yield farmers went up in smoke.</p><p>The TerraClassic community continues to create social media buzz based on the idea that brokerages listing LUNC will implement a burn tax that&#39;ll reduce the max supply of close to 6.9 trillion tokens. But even burning billions of coins won&#39;t have an impact with a max token supply this large.</p><p>The bigger problem is that TerraClassicUSD has de-pegged and its native coin Terra Classic no longer serves any purpose. With all blockchain work now revolving around the new <b>Terra</b>, Terra Classic and TerraClassicUSD are shell investments, with nothing to back their value.</p><h2>FTX Token</h2><p>The fourth cryptocurrency to avoid like the plague in the new year is the native token of the FTX crypto exchange, <b>FTX Token</b>.</p><p>If you follow cryptocurrency news, you&#39;re likely well aware of the collapse of FTX, the third-largest digital currency trading platform, based on volume. FTX officially filed for bankruptcy on Nov. 11, 2022.</p><p>As I&#39;ve noted, the details surrounding the collapse of FTX are still being pieced together. What we <i>do</i> know is that serious accounting errors were made, and that customer funds appear to have been used by Alameda Research, an affiliate of FTX, for aggressive investment purposes.</p><p>FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried looks to have completely failed in his fiduciary responsibilities, with his company having far too little in liquid assets to cover his company&#39;s liabilities. Bankman-Fried was arrested three weeks ago and faces a litany of charges in the U.S.</p><p>The key point I&#39;m getting at is that the FTX Token, similar to Terra Classic and TerraClassicUSD, no longer serves any purpose. With FTX bankrupt and the company expected to spend who knows how long trying to make good for its more than 1 million creditors, FTX Token has nothing tangible to support its value. While it&#39;s possible social media buzz could support minor pops here and there, I&#39;d expect FTX Token to eventually track toward $0, given that its purpose and backing are now gone.</p><h2>Dogecoin</h2><p>The fifth and final cryptocurrency to avoid like the plague in 2023 is the other ultra-popular Shiba Inu dog-themed meme coin from 2021, <b>Dogecoin</b>.</p><p>Dogecoin&#39;s popularity primarily derives from its association with <b>Tesla</b> and Twitter CEO Elon Musk. The former richest person in the world owns only three digital currencies, of which Dogecoin is one. Previously, Musk has posted tweets implying Dogecoin could go to the moon, and has noted that he&#39;d work with developers to improve the efficiency of Dogecoin&#39;s blockchain network. It is worth noting that Dogecoin&#39;s transaction fees have been significantly reduced since Musk became involved.</p><p>However, Dogecoin, like Shiba Inu, is nothing more than a payment coin. It offers nothing in the way of competitive advantages, which means it has no way to stand out when compared to countless other blockchain-driven payment projects.</p><p>To build on this point, daily transaction data from BitInfoCharts.com shows that Dogecoin&#39;s transaction fee reduction has had no impact on its utility. Approximately 20,000 transactions were completed daily on Dogecoin&#39;s blockchain during December 2022, which is roughly where things stood back in late 2014.</p><p>To put this into some context, payment kingpin <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a></b> can process up to 24,000 transactions per second using its traditional network. That means Visa is handling in one second what Dogecoin&#39;s blockchain does in a full day.</p><p>Likewise, merchant acceptance of Dogecoin on Cryptwerk has stalled over the past year. Translation: There&#39;s little or no excitement for merchants when it comes to adopting/accepting DOGE as a form of payment.</p><p>Lastly, DOGE falls into the same category as SHIB when it comes to payment coins getting drubbed following life-altering gains. Although it&#39;s down around 90% from its all-time high set in May 2021, a lack of tangible catalysts could easily send this popular cryptocurrency markedly lower in 2023.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Cryptocurrencies to Avoid Like the Plague in 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Cryptocurrencies to Avoid Like the Plague in 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-04 23:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/03/5-cryptocurrencies-to-avoid-like-the-plague-2023/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What a difference a year makes. Following a scorching-hot 2021 for the cryptocurrency space, the combined value of more than 21,000 digital currencies sank by $1.4 trillion, or nearly 64%, to $795 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/03/5-cryptocurrencies-to-avoid-like-the-plague-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/03/5-cryptocurrencies-to-avoid-like-the-plague-2023/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2300105437","content_text":"What a difference a year makes. Following a scorching-hot 2021 for the cryptocurrency space, the combined value of more than 21,000 digital currencies sank by $1.4 trillion, or nearly 64%, to $795 billion in 2022. With equities plunging into a bear market and cryptocurrencies failing to decouple from the stock market, this highly volatile asset class has been clobbered.Unfortunately, an encore performance could be in the works for the new year. While a number of crypto projects have demonstrated promise, other popular digital currencies are nothing short of investment land mines. What follows are five cryptocurrencies to avoid like the plague in 2023.Shiba InuThe first cryptocurrency to avoid at all cost in the new year is arguably the hottest digital currency of 2021: meme coin Shiba Inu. Between midnight on Jan. 1, 2021, and its intraday peak on Oct. 27 of the same year, SHIB tokens rallied more than 121,000,000%. Put another way, if you had invested $1 in Shiba Inu the moment 2021 began, you were a millionaire less than 10 months later. By year's end, SHIB coins had ended higher by approximately 46,000,000%.But 2022 was a different story for this retail-investing hero. At points throughout the year, SHIB retraced more than 90% from its all-time high of $0.00008841. Chances are that 2023 will bring more of the same.The biggest issue for Shiba Inu is that it lacks anything resembling a competitive advantage or differentiation. It's an ERC-20 coin built on the Ethereum blockchain, which is a fancy way of saying that it's effectively nothing more than a payment coin.There are countless digital currencies that could, in theory, be used for payments, if merchants would allow for it. To boot, it's not even a popular payment option, with the number of merchants accepting SHIB stalling in the mid-600s throughout most of 2022, according to data from online business directory Cryptwerk.Another issue for Shiba Inu is that its catalysts have fallen flat. The public domain test of level-2 blockchain solution Shibarium, which is designed to lower transaction fees and accelerate the development of blockchain-based gaming, failed to materialize in 2022. Further, interest in non-fungible tokens (NFTs) has fallen off a cliff. NFTs are the lifeblood of blockchain-driven gaming, which puts a damper on Shiba Inu's gaming and metaverse ambitions.History has also been incredibly unkind to payment coins that deliver life-altering gains over a short period. It's not uncommon for payment coins to retrace in excess of 99% over a two-year stretch following a monumental gain. My suspicion is SHIB is still a long way from reaching its bottom.Terra Classic and TerraClassicUSDThe second and third cryptocurrencies to avoid like the plague in 2023 are Terra Classic, the digital currency that was once known as Terra, and TerraClassicUSD, which had previously been known as TerraUSD. These two coins are being lumped together because they're linked at the hip.Prior to May 2022, these two cryptocurrencies appeared revolutionary and surefire. TerraClassicUSD was a stablecoin offering yields of up to 20% that was pegged to the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Terra Classic, the native token for TerraClassicUSD, was being minted or burned based on an algorithm to help TerraClassicUSD maintain its peg. It all worked great -- until it didn't.Over $2 billion in TerraClassicUSD was unstaked in early May, which caused TerraClassicUSD to unpeg and led to the minting of trillions of Terra Classic tokens. In a matter of days, more than $60 billion in market value was lost, and a seemingly surefire money machine for crypto yield farmers went up in smoke.The TerraClassic community continues to create social media buzz based on the idea that brokerages listing LUNC will implement a burn tax that'll reduce the max supply of close to 6.9 trillion tokens. But even burning billions of coins won't have an impact with a max token supply this large.The bigger problem is that TerraClassicUSD has de-pegged and its native coin Terra Classic no longer serves any purpose. With all blockchain work now revolving around the new Terra, Terra Classic and TerraClassicUSD are shell investments, with nothing to back their value.FTX TokenThe fourth cryptocurrency to avoid like the plague in the new year is the native token of the FTX crypto exchange, FTX Token.If you follow cryptocurrency news, you're likely well aware of the collapse of FTX, the third-largest digital currency trading platform, based on volume. FTX officially filed for bankruptcy on Nov. 11, 2022.As I've noted, the details surrounding the collapse of FTX are still being pieced together. What we do know is that serious accounting errors were made, and that customer funds appear to have been used by Alameda Research, an affiliate of FTX, for aggressive investment purposes.FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried looks to have completely failed in his fiduciary responsibilities, with his company having far too little in liquid assets to cover his company's liabilities. Bankman-Fried was arrested three weeks ago and faces a litany of charges in the U.S.The key point I'm getting at is that the FTX Token, similar to Terra Classic and TerraClassicUSD, no longer serves any purpose. With FTX bankrupt and the company expected to spend who knows how long trying to make good for its more than 1 million creditors, FTX Token has nothing tangible to support its value. While it's possible social media buzz could support minor pops here and there, I'd expect FTX Token to eventually track toward $0, given that its purpose and backing are now gone.DogecoinThe fifth and final cryptocurrency to avoid like the plague in 2023 is the other ultra-popular Shiba Inu dog-themed meme coin from 2021, Dogecoin.Dogecoin's popularity primarily derives from its association with Tesla and Twitter CEO Elon Musk. The former richest person in the world owns only three digital currencies, of which Dogecoin is one. Previously, Musk has posted tweets implying Dogecoin could go to the moon, and has noted that he'd work with developers to improve the efficiency of Dogecoin's blockchain network. It is worth noting that Dogecoin's transaction fees have been significantly reduced since Musk became involved.However, Dogecoin, like Shiba Inu, is nothing more than a payment coin. It offers nothing in the way of competitive advantages, which means it has no way to stand out when compared to countless other blockchain-driven payment projects.To build on this point, daily transaction data from BitInfoCharts.com shows that Dogecoin's transaction fee reduction has had no impact on its utility. Approximately 20,000 transactions were completed daily on Dogecoin's blockchain during December 2022, which is roughly where things stood back in late 2014.To put this into some context, payment kingpin Visa can process up to 24,000 transactions per second using its traditional network. That means Visa is handling in one second what Dogecoin's blockchain does in a full day.Likewise, merchant acceptance of Dogecoin on Cryptwerk has stalled over the past year. Translation: There's little or no excitement for merchants when it comes to adopting/accepting DOGE as a form of payment.Lastly, DOGE falls into the same category as SHIB when it comes to payment coins getting drubbed following life-altering gains. Although it's down around 90% from its all-time high set in May 2021, a lack of tangible catalysts could easily send this popular cryptocurrency markedly lower in 2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950973812,"gmtCreate":1672658191436,"gmtModify":1676538716458,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950973812","repostId":"2300611828","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2300611828","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1672619433,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2300611828?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-02 08:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"New Year's Market Closing, Jobs Data, Fed Minutes, and More for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2300611828","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n     It will be another holiday-shortened trading week, with stock and bond ","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\nBy Nicholas Jasinski \n</pre>\n<p>\n     It will be another holiday-shortened trading week, with stock and bond markets closed on Monday in observance of New Year's Day. Once Wall Street returns, there will be a handful of notable earnings releases and December jobs data to look forward to. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Earnings will be clustered on Thursday: Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> all report. Fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off with results from several big banks on Jan. 13. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The economic-data highlight of the week will be jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report a gain of 217,500 nonfarm payrolls in December, following an increase of 263,000 in November. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at a historically low 3.7%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Economists will also be watching the BLS' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday. The consensus estimate calls for 10 million job openings on the last business day of November, which would be 334,000 fewer than in October. \n</p>\n<p>\n     A looser job market is a key for the Federal Reserve. Economists will look to glean insights from the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's mid-December monetary-policy meeting, which will be released on Tuesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Also on Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management will report its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for December, followed by the Services equivalent on Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday \n</p>\n<p>\n     Markets around the globe, including in the U.S., Canada, China, Japan, and the United Kingdom, are closed in observance of New Year's Day. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 1/3 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Census Bureau reports construction spending statistics for November. The consensus estimate is for total construction spending to decline 0.4%, month over month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.79 trillion. Despite the slowdown in the housing market, construction spending remains near its record peak of $1.82 trillion, hit last July. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 1/4 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its mid-December monetary-policy meeting. The FOMC raised the federal funds rates at its last seven meetings in 2022, for a total of 4.25 percentage points, the most since 1980. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10 million job openings on the last business day of November, 334,000 fewer than in October. There are currently 1.7 job openings for every person seeking employment, something that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stressed needs to come into better balance. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for December. Expectations are for a 48 reading, one point lower than in November. The index fell below 50 in November for the first time since May of 2020, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing sector is contracting. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 1/5 \n</p>\n<p>\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for December. The economy is expected to add 145,000 private-sector jobs, after a 127,000 gain in November. Job growth has slowed from first-half 2022's rapid pace. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings, and Walgreens Boots Alliance report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Costco Wholesale reports December revenue data. On Nov. 30, the discount warehouse retailer reported slower-than-expected same-stores sales growth for the month, leading to a 6.6% decline in the stock on the following day. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 1/6 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for December. The consensus estimate is for an increase of 217,500 nonfarm payrolls, following a gain of 263,000 in November. The unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at a historically low 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 5%, year over year, after rising 5.1% in the previous month. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The ISM releases its Services PMI for December. The consensus call is for a 54.5 reading, two points lower than in November. The services sector has held up better than the manufacturing sector, as shown by the respective PMIs, as consumers reverse the pandemic stay-at-home trend of spending more on goods than on services. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  January 02, 2023 21:14 ET (02:14 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Year's Market Closing, Jobs Data, Fed Minutes, and More for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Year's Market Closing, Jobs Data, Fed Minutes, and More for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-02 08:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\nBy Nicholas Jasinski \n</pre>\n<p>\n     It will be another holiday-shortened trading week, with stock and bond markets closed on Monday in observance of New Year's Day. Once Wall Street returns, there will be a handful of notable earnings releases and December jobs data to look forward to. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Earnings will be clustered on Thursday: Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> all report. Fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off with results from several big banks on Jan. 13. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The economic-data highlight of the week will be jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report a gain of 217,500 nonfarm payrolls in December, following an increase of 263,000 in November. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at a historically low 3.7%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Economists will also be watching the BLS' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday. The consensus estimate calls for 10 million job openings on the last business day of November, which would be 334,000 fewer than in October. \n</p>\n<p>\n     A looser job market is a key for the Federal Reserve. Economists will look to glean insights from the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's mid-December monetary-policy meeting, which will be released on Tuesday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Also on Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management will report its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for December, followed by the Services equivalent on Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday \n</p>\n<p>\n     Markets around the globe, including in the U.S., Canada, China, Japan, and the United Kingdom, are closed in observance of New Year's Day. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 1/3 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Census Bureau reports construction spending statistics for November. The consensus estimate is for total construction spending to decline 0.4%, month over month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.79 trillion. Despite the slowdown in the housing market, construction spending remains near its record peak of $1.82 trillion, hit last July. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 1/4 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its mid-December monetary-policy meeting. The FOMC raised the federal funds rates at its last seven meetings in 2022, for a total of 4.25 percentage points, the most since 1980. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10 million job openings on the last business day of November, 334,000 fewer than in October. There are currently 1.7 job openings for every person seeking employment, something that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stressed needs to come into better balance. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for December. Expectations are for a 48 reading, one point lower than in November. The index fell below 50 in November for the first time since May of 2020, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing sector is contracting. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 1/5 \n</p>\n<p>\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for December. The economy is expected to add 145,000 private-sector jobs, after a 127,000 gain in November. Job growth has slowed from first-half 2022's rapid pace. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings, and Walgreens Boots Alliance report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Costco Wholesale reports December revenue data. On Nov. 30, the discount warehouse retailer reported slower-than-expected same-stores sales growth for the month, leading to a 6.6% decline in the stock on the following day. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 1/6 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for December. The consensus estimate is for an increase of 217,500 nonfarm payrolls, following a gain of 263,000 in November. The unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at a historically low 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 5%, year over year, after rising 5.1% in the previous month. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The ISM releases its Services PMI for December. The consensus call is for a 54.5 reading, two points lower than in November. The services sector has held up better than the manufacturing sector, as shown by the respective PMIs, as consumers reverse the pandemic stay-at-home trend of spending more on goods than on services. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  January 02, 2023 21:14 ET (02:14 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","BK4017":"黄金","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","BK4169":"酿酒商与葡萄酒商","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU1878469433.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) - AMERICAN SMALLER COMPANIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4212":"包装食品与肉类","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4075":"烟草","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2095319765.USD":"Natixis Thematics Subscription Economy R/A USD","BK4524":"宅经济概念","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","LU2210150020.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Subscription Economy R/A SGD","LU2210149790.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Subscription Economy R/A SGD-H",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2300611828","content_text":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n     It will be another holiday-shortened trading week, with stock and bond markets closed on Monday in observance of New Year's Day. Once Wall Street returns, there will be a handful of notable earnings releases and December jobs data to look forward to. \n\n\n     Earnings will be clustered on Thursday: Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings, and Walgreens Boots Alliance all report. Fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off with results from several big banks on Jan. 13. \n\n\n     The economic-data highlight of the week will be jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report a gain of 217,500 nonfarm payrolls in December, following an increase of 263,000 in November. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at a historically low 3.7%. \n\n\n     Economists will also be watching the BLS' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday. The consensus estimate calls for 10 million job openings on the last business day of November, which would be 334,000 fewer than in October. \n\n\n     A looser job market is a key for the Federal Reserve. Economists will look to glean insights from the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's mid-December monetary-policy meeting, which will be released on Tuesday. \n\n\n     Also on Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management will report its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for December, followed by the Services equivalent on Friday. \n\n\n     Monday \n\n\n     Markets around the globe, including in the U.S., Canada, China, Japan, and the United Kingdom, are closed in observance of New Year's Day. \n\n\n     Tuesday 1/3 \n\n\n     The Census Bureau reports construction spending statistics for November. The consensus estimate is for total construction spending to decline 0.4%, month over month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.79 trillion. Despite the slowdown in the housing market, construction spending remains near its record peak of $1.82 trillion, hit last July. \n\n\n     Wednesday 1/4 \n\n\n     The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its mid-December monetary-policy meeting. The FOMC raised the federal funds rates at its last seven meetings in 2022, for a total of 4.25 percentage points, the most since 1980. \n\n\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10 million job openings on the last business day of November, 334,000 fewer than in October. There are currently 1.7 job openings for every person seeking employment, something that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stressed needs to come into better balance. \n\n\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for December. Expectations are for a 48 reading, one point lower than in November. The index fell below 50 in November for the first time since May of 2020, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing sector is contracting. \n\n\n     Thursday 1/5 \n\n\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for December. The economy is expected to add 145,000 private-sector jobs, after a 127,000 gain in November. Job growth has slowed from first-half 2022's rapid pace. \n\n\n     Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings, and Walgreens Boots Alliance report quarterly results. \n\n\n     Costco Wholesale reports December revenue data. On Nov. 30, the discount warehouse retailer reported slower-than-expected same-stores sales growth for the month, leading to a 6.6% decline in the stock on the following day. \n\n\n     Friday 1/6 \n\n\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for December. The consensus estimate is for an increase of 217,500 nonfarm payrolls, following a gain of 263,000 in November. The unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at a historically low 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 5%, year over year, after rising 5.1% in the previous month. \n\n\n     The ISM releases its Services PMI for December. The consensus call is for a 54.5 reading, two points lower than in November. The services sector has held up better than the manufacturing sector, as shown by the respective PMIs, as consumers reverse the pandemic stay-at-home trend of spending more on goods than on services. \n\n\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  January 02, 2023 21:14 ET (02:14 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927870839,"gmtCreate":1672455704622,"gmtModify":1676538693734,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O ok","listText":"O ok","text":"O ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927870839","repostId":"2295181713","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2295181713","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1672441484,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2295181713?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-31 07:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall St Ends 2022 With Biggest Annual Drop Since 2008","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2295181713","media":"Reuters","summary":"Wall St booked biggest annual percentage drop since 2008S&P market cap declined by about $8 billion ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Wall St booked biggest annual percentage drop since 2008</li><li>S&amp;P market cap declined by about $8 billion in 2022</li><li>Indexes down: Dow 0.22%, S&amp;P 500 0.25%, Nasdaq 0.11%</li></ul><p>U.S. stocks closed out 2022 lower on Friday, capping a year of sharp losses driven by aggressive interest rate hikes to curb inflation, recession fears, the Russia-Ukraine war and rising concerns over COVID cases in China.</p><p>Wall Street&#39;s three main indexes booked their first yearly drop since 2018 as an era of loose monetary policy ended with the Federal Reserve&#39;s fastest pace of rate hikes since the 1980s.</p><p>The benchmark S&amp;P 500    has shed 19.4% this year, marking a roughly $8 trillion decline in market cap. The tech-heavy Nasdaq    is down 33.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average    has fallen 8.9%.</p><p>The annual percentage declines for all three indexes were the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis, largely driven by a rout in growth shares as concerns over Fed&#39;s rapid interest rate hikes boost U.S. Treasury yields.</p><p>&#34;The primary macro reasons ... came from a combination of events: the ongoing supply chain disruption that started in 2020, the spike in inflation, the tardiness of the Fed beginning its rate tightening program in the attempt to corral the inflation,&#34; said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.</p><p>He also cited economic indicators pointing to recession, geopolitical tensions including the Ukraine war, and China&#39;s surging COVID cases and uncertainties over Taiwan.</p><p>Growth stocks have been under pressure from rising yields for much of 2022 and have underperformed their economically linked value peers, reversing a trend that had lasted for much of the past decade.</p><p>Apple Inc, Alphabet Inc, Microsoft Corp, Nvidia Corp, Amazon.com Inc, Tesla Inc are among the worst drags on the S&amp;P 500 growth index   , down between 28% and 66% in 2022.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 growth index has fallen about 30.1% this year, while the value index    is down 7.4%, with investors preferring high dividend-yielding sectors with steady earnings such as energy.</p><p>Energy has recorded stellar annual gains of 59% as oil prices surged.</p><p>Ten of the 11 S&amp;P sector indexes dropped on Friday, led by real estate and utilities.</p><p>&#34;The housing market has really slowed down and the values of people&#39;s homes have declined off of the highs earlier this year,&#34; said J. Bryant Evans, investment advisor and portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management in Champaign, Illinois.</p><p>&#34;That affects people&#39;s mind frame and actually affects their spending a little bit.&#34;</p><p>The focus has shifted to the 2023 corporate earnings outlook, with growing concerns about the likelihood of a recession.</p><p>Still, signs of U.S. economic resilience have fueled worries that rates could remain higher, though easing inflationary pressures have raised hopes of dialed-down rate hikes.</p><p>Money market participants see 65% odds of a 25-basis-point hike in the Fed&#39;s February meeting, with rates expected to peak at 4.97% by mid-2023.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 73.55 points, or 0.22%, to 33,147.25; the S&amp;P 500    lost 9.78 points, or 0.25%, at 3,839.50; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 11.61 points, or 0.11%, to 10,466.48.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 8.50 billion shares, compared with the 10.79 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.03-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted no new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 85 new highs and 134 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall St Ends 2022 With Biggest Annual Drop Since 2008</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall St Ends 2022 With Biggest Annual Drop Since 2008\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-31 07:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Wall St booked biggest annual percentage drop since 2008</li><li>S&amp;P market cap declined by about $8 billion in 2022</li><li>Indexes down: Dow 0.22%, S&amp;P 500 0.25%, Nasdaq 0.11%</li></ul><p>U.S. stocks closed out 2022 lower on Friday, capping a year of sharp losses driven by aggressive interest rate hikes to curb inflation, recession fears, the Russia-Ukraine war and rising concerns over COVID cases in China.</p><p>Wall Street&#39;s three main indexes booked their first yearly drop since 2018 as an era of loose monetary policy ended with the Federal Reserve&#39;s fastest pace of rate hikes since the 1980s.</p><p>The benchmark S&amp;P 500    has shed 19.4% this year, marking a roughly $8 trillion decline in market cap. The tech-heavy Nasdaq    is down 33.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average    has fallen 8.9%.</p><p>The annual percentage declines for all three indexes were the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis, largely driven by a rout in growth shares as concerns over Fed&#39;s rapid interest rate hikes boost U.S. Treasury yields.</p><p>&#34;The primary macro reasons ... came from a combination of events: the ongoing supply chain disruption that started in 2020, the spike in inflation, the tardiness of the Fed beginning its rate tightening program in the attempt to corral the inflation,&#34; said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.</p><p>He also cited economic indicators pointing to recession, geopolitical tensions including the Ukraine war, and China&#39;s surging COVID cases and uncertainties over Taiwan.</p><p>Growth stocks have been under pressure from rising yields for much of 2022 and have underperformed their economically linked value peers, reversing a trend that had lasted for much of the past decade.</p><p>Apple Inc, Alphabet Inc, Microsoft Corp, Nvidia Corp, Amazon.com Inc, Tesla Inc are among the worst drags on the S&amp;P 500 growth index   , down between 28% and 66% in 2022.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 growth index has fallen about 30.1% this year, while the value index    is down 7.4%, with investors preferring high dividend-yielding sectors with steady earnings such as energy.</p><p>Energy has recorded stellar annual gains of 59% as oil prices surged.</p><p>Ten of the 11 S&amp;P sector indexes dropped on Friday, led by real estate and utilities.</p><p>&#34;The housing market has really slowed down and the values of people&#39;s homes have declined off of the highs earlier this year,&#34; said J. Bryant Evans, investment advisor and portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management in Champaign, Illinois.</p><p>&#34;That affects people&#39;s mind frame and actually affects their spending a little bit.&#34;</p><p>The focus has shifted to the 2023 corporate earnings outlook, with growing concerns about the likelihood of a recession.</p><p>Still, signs of U.S. economic resilience have fueled worries that rates could remain higher, though easing inflationary pressures have raised hopes of dialed-down rate hikes.</p><p>Money market participants see 65% odds of a 25-basis-point hike in the Fed&#39;s February meeting, with rates expected to peak at 4.97% by mid-2023.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 73.55 points, or 0.22%, to 33,147.25; the S&amp;P 500    lost 9.78 points, or 0.25%, at 3,839.50; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 11.61 points, or 0.11%, to 10,466.48.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 8.50 billion shares, compared with the 10.79 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.03-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted no new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 85 new highs and 134 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2295181713","content_text":"Wall St booked biggest annual percentage drop since 2008S&P market cap declined by about $8 billion in 2022Indexes down: Dow 0.22%, S&P 500 0.25%, Nasdaq 0.11%U.S. stocks closed out 2022 lower on Friday, capping a year of sharp losses driven by aggressive interest rate hikes to curb inflation, recession fears, the Russia-Ukraine war and rising concerns over COVID cases in China.Wall Street's three main indexes booked their first yearly drop since 2018 as an era of loose monetary policy ended with the Federal Reserve's fastest pace of rate hikes since the 1980s.The benchmark S&P 500    has shed 19.4% this year, marking a roughly $8 trillion decline in market cap. The tech-heavy Nasdaq    is down 33.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average    has fallen 8.9%.The annual percentage declines for all three indexes were the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis, largely driven by a rout in growth shares as concerns over Fed's rapid interest rate hikes boost U.S. Treasury yields.\"The primary macro reasons ... came from a combination of events: the ongoing supply chain disruption that started in 2020, the spike in inflation, the tardiness of the Fed beginning its rate tightening program in the attempt to corral the inflation,\" said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.He also cited economic indicators pointing to recession, geopolitical tensions including the Ukraine war, and China's surging COVID cases and uncertainties over Taiwan.Growth stocks have been under pressure from rising yields for much of 2022 and have underperformed their economically linked value peers, reversing a trend that had lasted for much of the past decade.Apple Inc, Alphabet Inc, Microsoft Corp, Nvidia Corp, Amazon.com Inc, Tesla Inc are among the worst drags on the S&P 500 growth index   , down between 28% and 66% in 2022.The S&P 500 growth index has fallen about 30.1% this year, while the value index    is down 7.4%, with investors preferring high dividend-yielding sectors with steady earnings such as energy.Energy has recorded stellar annual gains of 59% as oil prices surged.Ten of the 11 S&P sector indexes dropped on Friday, led by real estate and utilities.\"The housing market has really slowed down and the values of people's homes have declined off of the highs earlier this year,\" said J. Bryant Evans, investment advisor and portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management in Champaign, Illinois.\"That affects people's mind frame and actually affects their spending a little bit.\"The focus has shifted to the 2023 corporate earnings outlook, with growing concerns about the likelihood of a recession.Still, signs of U.S. economic resilience have fueled worries that rates could remain higher, though easing inflationary pressures have raised hopes of dialed-down rate hikes.Money market participants see 65% odds of a 25-basis-point hike in the Fed's February meeting, with rates expected to peak at 4.97% by mid-2023.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 73.55 points, or 0.22%, to 33,147.25; the S&P 500    lost 9.78 points, or 0.25%, at 3,839.50; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 11.61 points, or 0.11%, to 10,466.48.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 8.50 billion shares, compared with the 10.79 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.50-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.03-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted no new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 85 new highs and 134 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927314088,"gmtCreate":1672397365044,"gmtModify":1676538684966,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sure","listText":"Sure","text":"Sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927314088","repostId":"2295113789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2295113789","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1672394307,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2295113789?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-30 17:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 No-Brainer Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist for 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2295113789","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Amazon and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing are available at attractive valuations.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve gave the stock market a shock recently as the central bank raised interest rates once again, taking its benchmark rate to its highest level in 15 years. The Fed also suggested that it would keep raising rates in 2023 to bring down inflation.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s hawkish stance sent equities tumbling, as it was expected that the central bank would dial down rate increases in 2023 thanks to signs of cooling inflation. A high-interest-rate environment has been the stock market&#39;s undoing in 2022. The Fed would need more proof that inflation is cooling in a sustained manner.</p><p>It could get that evidence in 2023, as inflation is expected to drop to 3.2% by the end of 2023, which would be a substantial decline from 7.1% in November 2022. So it won&#39;t be surprising to see the Fed adopt a dovish stance as 2023 progresses. That&#39;s why now may be a good time to buy some beaten-down stocks from Warren Buffett&#39;s portfolio.</p><p>The <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> CEO has been active in the stock market this year despite the gloom, suggesting that he&#39;s busy putting his money to work by buying solid companies for the long run. Here are two stocks from Berkshire&#39;s portfolio that investors may want to buy while they&#39;re still down, as they could turn out to be big winners in the long run.</p><h2>1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a></h2><p>E-commerce and technology giant <b>Amazon</b> has lost half of its value on the stock market this year. The company&#39;s growth has lagged thanks to a slowdown in e-commerce sales on account of surging inflation.</p><p>But with inflation expected to cool down substantially in 2023, the e-commerce business can be expected to step on the gas once again. This explains why Amazon&#39;s earnings are estimated to jump substantially next year following a sharp drop in 2022. More specifically, Amazon is expected to finish 2022 with a loss of $0.09 per share, compared with a profit of $3.24 per share in 2021, but the forecast for 2023 and 2024 shows major improvements are in the cards.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef8b659184ae00c4a96f8c33905911b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>AMZN EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</p><p>It is estimated that global e-commerce spending could rise to $6.5 trillion in 2023 from $5.7 trillion in 2022. That would be a nice improvement over this year&#39;s estimated decline of nearly 10%. On the other hand, Amazon&#39;s entry into a lucrative market such as advertising should be another key catalyst for the company in 2023.</p><p>Amazon&#39;s advertising revenue jumped 25% year over year in the third quarter of 2022 to $9.5 billion. Although that was less than 10% of the company&#39;s total revenue of $127 billion, it could move the needle in a bigger way for the company. Amazon&#39;s 2022 ad revenue is expected to land at $38 billion. By 2026, this figure is expected to jump to $64 billion. Throw in other growth drivers such as cloud computing, an area where Amazon dominates, and it is easy to see why the company is expected to clock 26% annual earnings growth for the next five years.</p><p>So this Warren Buffett stock could run higher in 2023 and beyond, which is why investors may want to buy it right now, as it&#39;s trading at just 1.7 times sales, which represents a discount to the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>&#39;s price-to-sales ratio of 2.3.</p><h2>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</a></h2><p><b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</b> -- better known as TSMC -- is one of the latest additions to Buffett&#39;s portfolio. The Oracle of Omaha revealed a $4.1 billion stake in TSMC recently, and it&#39;s not surprising to see why the foundry giant has made its way into Berkshire&#39;s portfolio.</p><p>TSMC&#39;s 43% slide in 2022 means it&#39;s available at an attractive valuation. TSMC is trading at less than 14 times trailing earnings. That&#39;s lower than the S&amp;P 500&#39;s earnings multiple of 18. Buying this semiconductor stock at this valuation looks like a no-brainer, given the terrific growth opportunity it&#39;s sitting on.</p><p>With TSMC&#39;s earnings estimated to increase at an annual pace of over 21% over the next five years, investors can consider buying it hand over fist considering the cheap valuation. After all, TSMC is the world&#39;s biggest semiconductor foundry and controls 56% share of this space, according to Counterpoint Research.</p><p>This impressive market share puts the company in a solid position to take advantage of the secular growth in semiconductors. Global semiconductor sales are estimated to exceed $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, up from $600 billion in 2021. Of course, analysts expect the industry to hit a speed bump in 2023, with industry revenue expected to decline 3.6%, but TSMC can sustain its impressive growth despite that.</p><p>TSMC&#39;s revenue has jumped nearly 45% in the first 11 months of 2022 compared with the prior-year period. That&#39;s well above the 4% growth that the global semiconductor market is expected to reach in 2022. TSMC&#39;s diversified end markets and its dominance of the foundry market have allowed it to enjoy terrific growth in 2022, and the company&#39;s investments in advanced technologies should help it sustain the same in the future thanks to its secular growth opportunity.</p><p>All this makes TSMC another top Buffett stock that investors may want to buy right now, as it may not be available for cheap once inflation cools down enough and the stock market possibly goes on a bull run in 2023.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 No-Brainer Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist for 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 No-Brainer Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist for 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-30 17:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/29/2-no-brainer-warren-buffett-stocks-to-buy-hand-ove/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve gave the stock market a shock recently as the central bank raised interest rates once again, taking its benchmark rate to its highest level in 15 years. The Fed also suggested that...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/29/2-no-brainer-warren-buffett-stocks-to-buy-hand-ove/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/29/2-no-brainer-warren-buffett-stocks-to-buy-hand-ove/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2295113789","content_text":"The Federal Reserve gave the stock market a shock recently as the central bank raised interest rates once again, taking its benchmark rate to its highest level in 15 years. The Fed also suggested that it would keep raising rates in 2023 to bring down inflation.The Fed's hawkish stance sent equities tumbling, as it was expected that the central bank would dial down rate increases in 2023 thanks to signs of cooling inflation. A high-interest-rate environment has been the stock market's undoing in 2022. The Fed would need more proof that inflation is cooling in a sustained manner.It could get that evidence in 2023, as inflation is expected to drop to 3.2% by the end of 2023, which would be a substantial decline from 7.1% in November 2022. So it won't be surprising to see the Fed adopt a dovish stance as 2023 progresses. That's why now may be a good time to buy some beaten-down stocks from Warren Buffett's portfolio.The Berkshire Hathaway CEO has been active in the stock market this year despite the gloom, suggesting that he's busy putting his money to work by buying solid companies for the long run. Here are two stocks from Berkshire's portfolio that investors may want to buy while they're still down, as they could turn out to be big winners in the long run.1. AmazonE-commerce and technology giant Amazon has lost half of its value on the stock market this year. The company's growth has lagged thanks to a slowdown in e-commerce sales on account of surging inflation.But with inflation expected to cool down substantially in 2023, the e-commerce business can be expected to step on the gas once again. This explains why Amazon's earnings are estimated to jump substantially next year following a sharp drop in 2022. More specifically, Amazon is expected to finish 2022 with a loss of $0.09 per share, compared with a profit of $3.24 per share in 2021, but the forecast for 2023 and 2024 shows major improvements are in the cards.AMZN EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YChartsIt is estimated that global e-commerce spending could rise to $6.5 trillion in 2023 from $5.7 trillion in 2022. That would be a nice improvement over this year's estimated decline of nearly 10%. On the other hand, Amazon's entry into a lucrative market such as advertising should be another key catalyst for the company in 2023.Amazon's advertising revenue jumped 25% year over year in the third quarter of 2022 to $9.5 billion. Although that was less than 10% of the company's total revenue of $127 billion, it could move the needle in a bigger way for the company. Amazon's 2022 ad revenue is expected to land at $38 billion. By 2026, this figure is expected to jump to $64 billion. Throw in other growth drivers such as cloud computing, an area where Amazon dominates, and it is easy to see why the company is expected to clock 26% annual earnings growth for the next five years.So this Warren Buffett stock could run higher in 2023 and beyond, which is why investors may want to buy it right now, as it's trading at just 1.7 times sales, which represents a discount to the S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio of 2.3.2. Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing -- better known as TSMC -- is one of the latest additions to Buffett's portfolio. The Oracle of Omaha revealed a $4.1 billion stake in TSMC recently, and it's not surprising to see why the foundry giant has made its way into Berkshire's portfolio.TSMC's 43% slide in 2022 means it's available at an attractive valuation. TSMC is trading at less than 14 times trailing earnings. That's lower than the S&P 500's earnings multiple of 18. Buying this semiconductor stock at this valuation looks like a no-brainer, given the terrific growth opportunity it's sitting on.With TSMC's earnings estimated to increase at an annual pace of over 21% over the next five years, investors can consider buying it hand over fist considering the cheap valuation. After all, TSMC is the world's biggest semiconductor foundry and controls 56% share of this space, according to Counterpoint Research.This impressive market share puts the company in a solid position to take advantage of the secular growth in semiconductors. Global semiconductor sales are estimated to exceed $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, up from $600 billion in 2021. Of course, analysts expect the industry to hit a speed bump in 2023, with industry revenue expected to decline 3.6%, but TSMC can sustain its impressive growth despite that.TSMC's revenue has jumped nearly 45% in the first 11 months of 2022 compared with the prior-year period. That's well above the 4% growth that the global semiconductor market is expected to reach in 2022. TSMC's diversified end markets and its dominance of the foundry market have allowed it to enjoy terrific growth in 2022, and the company's investments in advanced technologies should help it sustain the same in the future thanks to its secular growth opportunity.All this makes TSMC another top Buffett stock that investors may want to buy right now, as it may not be available for cheap once inflation cools down enough and the stock market possibly goes on a bull run in 2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924423753,"gmtCreate":1672314858373,"gmtModify":1676538670743,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924423753","repostId":"1137209740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137209740","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672328467,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137209740?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-29 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137209740","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Tesla is one of the world&#39;s largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.</li><li>The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top and bottom line estimates in Q3,22.</li><li>A Twitter poll requested Elon Musk step down as the CEO of Twitter, which I suspect will benefit Tesla shareholders if he follows through.</li><li>Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.</li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> is one of the world&#39;s largest EV makers and one of the most popular stocks in the world. The company was catapulted into stardom during the stimulus-fueled bull market of 2020, which sent the company fromnear bankruptcy to an S&amp;P 500, trillion-dollar titan. This tremendous bull run meant Tesla&#39;s stock price increased by over 1,300% and made many investors &#34;Teslanaires&#34;. However, since the macroeconomic environment changed in November 2021, as thehighinflation numbers were released, Tesla has become a rollercoaster for investors. The stock price has now been butchered by 73% from its all-time highs, with a 44% decline in December alone. This looks to have been driven by a series of macroeconomic factors. In addition, to a serious amount of stock selling by founder Elon Musk (which I will discuss more on in the Risks) section. There have also been somereportsof a production cut in January 2023, expected at Tesla&#39;s Shanghai factory. Although the company hasn&#39;t confirmed this yet. With all this bad news you may wonder why I am bullish on the stock? There are a few reasons for this, of course, we know about the company&#39;s leadership position and technology innovation. In addition, Tesla customers are nowpoisedto benefit from a $7,500 EV tax incentive which was offered thanks to the &#34;anti-inflation act&#34; and should boost EV demand. Its stock is also deeply undervalued intrinsically. In this post, I&#39;m going to review its financials, outline production updates, and revisit its valuation. Let&#39;s dive in.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a79a1ea5bc04bd0f7d6b837085e569e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data byYCharts</p><h3>Strong Financials</h3><p>Tesla generated strong financialresultsfor the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by a rapid 56% year over year to a record $21.45 billion, which was a strong positive. However, it did miss analyst estimates by $428.34 million. This was mainly driven by unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds, as a rising dollar impacted international revenue. Overall vehicle deliveries increased by 42% year over year to 343,830 units. The Model Y drove the majority of sales, followed by the Model S.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20b64a3820209ed9456f87830d2189af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Theaf orementioned tax credit is for EV vehicles that sell for below $55,000 and thus this includes Tesla&#39;s best-selling models 3 and Y. However, with options attached to the models, this will likely go over the tax rate availability. I did notice Tesla has relatively few low-cost (below $50,000 models) available on its website, within 200 miles of Rodeo Drive LA. I suspect the tax credit has helped to boost sales of low-value models already, which is a positive. I did notice Tesla is offering 10,000 miles of free supercharging which looks to be an incentive to boost demand further.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57567a6966f9a88dec06edea0df2921f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla vehicle stock (Tesla website, author search)</p><p>As of the third quarter of 2022, Tesla ramped up its production by 54% YoY to 365,923 vehicles. The latestdata(November 2022) shows Tesla still dominates the electric vehicle market in the U.S.A, with 65% market share. However, it should be noted that its market share has declined from the 79% in 2020. For many years, bearish analysts have said &#34;competition is coming&#34; for Tesla, but now it looks as though they are finally starting to eat market share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f129b31bd55450cd9d2b4db301535\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla market share (Electrek)</p><p>Ford is the second largest EV maker in the U.S. but still trails Tesla massively with just 7% market share. The company produces the F-150 which is the most popular vehicle sold in the U.S. Its new EV version of the F-150 isforecastto be released in 2023 and thus I believe this will be a major driver of sales. A positive for Tesla is the entire EV market is growing and thus the pie is getting bigger for all manufacturers. According to one study, the EV industry is forecast to grow at a 23.1% CAGR and be worth over $1.1 trillion by 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b8dd476696262c736d8202f0eb711b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ford 150 Electric (Ford Website, author screenshot)</p><p>A positive for Tesla is it doesn&#39;t have to convert traditional internal combustion engine facilities into EV manufacturing plants, like many traditional automakers. Tesla is vertically integrated from the ground up and has even developed unique pieces of equipment to manufacture its cars, such as the world&#39;s largest &#34;gigapress&#34;. Elon Musk has often stated in the past that producing a prototype or a low volume of vehicles is &#34;pretty easy&#34;, but manufacturing at scale is the challenging part. Tesla ramped up its Shanghai factory production in the third quarter and its Berlin factory also produced 2,000 model Y vehicles, although still in the early stages of a full ramp.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s rate of innovation is so great that when traditional auto manufacturers are thinking about breakfast, Tesla is already eating their lunch. For example, I recentlywatchedthe Tesla Semipresentationby Elon Musk, which is currently in production. The company has reinvented trucking with a smooth design which was tested in a state-of-the-art wind chamber, to maximize its range of 500 miles which was astonishing. The truck is also reportedly as &#34;easy to drive as a Model 3, with basically no training required&#34; according to Musk.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0285620745fdf8528607519819ead673\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Semi(Tesla)</p><p>Tesla has also innovated on the charging front with new &#34;Megachargers&#34; announced, that enable charging at a staggering 1 megawatt. This basically means truck batteries can be charged up to 70% in 30 minutes, which is the average amount of time a truck driver will take on a refresh break. The uniquely designed Cybertruck is alsoreportedto start production in 2023 and will benefit from the &#34;Megachargers&#34;.</p><p>Tesla increased its energy storage deployed to 2,100 MWh, which increased by a substantial 62% year over year. The company did experience some supply chain constraints as demand continued to &#34;outstrip supply&#34;.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e9768e93dfbc30a6ed7f6a616288ecd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Energy storage (Q3,22 report)</p><p>Tesla is also innovating on the artificial intelligence front as the company announced its beta Full self-driving and even humanoid robot concept called Optimus, which I have covered in greater detail in past posts. AI has recently seen a huge surge in popularity. The Open AI institute which was originally backed by Elon Musk released the popular ChatGPT, which some analysts believe could rival Google. I could envision a ChatGPT-like AI model embedded into the software of Optimus, which would make it a font of information while also assisting with tasks based upon prompts. This would truly create a &#34;superintelligence&#34; quite easily given the component pieces are all available.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7fe2dfb674cd77a5935cb3ad7b34ca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day 2022(Tesla)</p><p>Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.95, which increased by a staggering 93.57% year over year and beat analyst estimates by $0.06. The company also has a strong balance sheet with $21,107 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company does have fairly high debt of $5.87 billion, but just $979 million of this is short term debt, due within the next 2 years.</p><h3>Advanced Valuation</h3><p>I have plugged the latest financials of Tesla into my discounted cash flow valuation model. I have forecasted 30% revenue growth for next year which is fairly conservative given past growth rates of above 50%. I have given a lower estimate due to the tepid macroeconomic environment forecasted. However, in years 2 to 5, I have forecasted a recovery with a 35% revenue growth rate per year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500a6571bf014bc4f705876a2b54d81f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>To increase the accuracy of the valuation, I have capitalized R&amp;D expenses which has lifted net income. In addition, I have forecasted a pre-tax operating margin of 20% over the next 10 years, as the company scales and benefits from an increasing amount of cross-selling between its products.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b77d54dee36748f8aba2dbb017bd53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>Given these factors I get a fair value of $216 per share, the stock is trading at ~$109 per share at the time of writing and thus is ~50% undervalued.</p><p>As an extra data point, Tesla trades at a Price to Sales ratio = 4.52, which is 52% cheaper than its 5-year average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2a4393b0790f345f095c860ebcc51f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>Risks-Elon Musk Selling/Twitter</h3><p>A key red flag is the continued sale of Tesla stock by Elon Musk. A mid-December SECfilingreports Elon Musk sold 22 million shares of Tesla stock, with a staggering value of $3.6 billion. Musk is known to have slept in Tesla&#39;s factory and is very committed to the company, but when he repeatedly sells stock, it does contradict this narrative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ab90b0248581ffdd6e1053e959dabb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SEC filing(SEC/author annotation)</p><p>Musk may be selling shares to help pay down some of Twitter&#39;s debt, which he has previously made comments about. Many investors (including myself) believe Twitter is a major distraction to Elon Musk&#39;s mission at Tesla. In a recentvoteon Twitter, 57% of people asked Elon to step down as the CEO of Twitter, which he said he will abide by when he gets a replacement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642e9c75c64b767a55648c6514f3739a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CEO vote(Elon Musk Twitter)</p><p>Other risks include the forecasted recession and competition which I have previously discussed.</p><h3>Final Thoughts</h3><p>Tesla is a tremendous technology company with many competitive advantages from its manufacturing to technology and even its strong brand/community. Tesla has grown into its previously &#34;high&#34; valuation by continuing to generate strong financial results. Its stock is now deeply undervalued and thus this could be a great long-term investment. I do predict some short-term volatility over the next 12 months due to the recessionary environment, but Tesla&#39;s technology advantages should keep them ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-29 23:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1137209740","content_text":"SummaryTesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top and bottom line estimates in Q3,22.A Twitter poll requested Elon Musk step down as the CEO of Twitter, which I suspect will benefit Tesla shareholders if he follows through.Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.Tesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and one of the most popular stocks in the world. The company was catapulted into stardom during the stimulus-fueled bull market of 2020, which sent the company fromnear bankruptcy to an S&P 500, trillion-dollar titan. This tremendous bull run meant Tesla's stock price increased by over 1,300% and made many investors \"Teslanaires\". However, since the macroeconomic environment changed in November 2021, as thehighinflation numbers were released, Tesla has become a rollercoaster for investors. The stock price has now been butchered by 73% from its all-time highs, with a 44% decline in December alone. This looks to have been driven by a series of macroeconomic factors. In addition, to a serious amount of stock selling by founder Elon Musk (which I will discuss more on in the Risks) section. There have also been somereportsof a production cut in January 2023, expected at Tesla's Shanghai factory. Although the company hasn't confirmed this yet. With all this bad news you may wonder why I am bullish on the stock? There are a few reasons for this, of course, we know about the company's leadership position and technology innovation. In addition, Tesla customers are nowpoisedto benefit from a $7,500 EV tax incentive which was offered thanks to the \"anti-inflation act\" and should boost EV demand. Its stock is also deeply undervalued intrinsically. In this post, I'm going to review its financials, outline production updates, and revisit its valuation. Let's dive in.Data byYChartsStrong FinancialsTesla generated strong financialresultsfor the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by a rapid 56% year over year to a record $21.45 billion, which was a strong positive. However, it did miss analyst estimates by $428.34 million. This was mainly driven by unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds, as a rising dollar impacted international revenue. Overall vehicle deliveries increased by 42% year over year to 343,830 units. The Model Y drove the majority of sales, followed by the Model S.Data by YChartsTheaf orementioned tax credit is for EV vehicles that sell for below $55,000 and thus this includes Tesla's best-selling models 3 and Y. However, with options attached to the models, this will likely go over the tax rate availability. I did notice Tesla has relatively few low-cost (below $50,000 models) available on its website, within 200 miles of Rodeo Drive LA. I suspect the tax credit has helped to boost sales of low-value models already, which is a positive. I did notice Tesla is offering 10,000 miles of free supercharging which looks to be an incentive to boost demand further.Tesla vehicle stock (Tesla website, author search)As of the third quarter of 2022, Tesla ramped up its production by 54% YoY to 365,923 vehicles. The latestdata(November 2022) shows Tesla still dominates the electric vehicle market in the U.S.A, with 65% market share. However, it should be noted that its market share has declined from the 79% in 2020. For many years, bearish analysts have said \"competition is coming\" for Tesla, but now it looks as though they are finally starting to eat market share.Tesla market share (Electrek)Ford is the second largest EV maker in the U.S. but still trails Tesla massively with just 7% market share. The company produces the F-150 which is the most popular vehicle sold in the U.S. Its new EV version of the F-150 isforecastto be released in 2023 and thus I believe this will be a major driver of sales. A positive for Tesla is the entire EV market is growing and thus the pie is getting bigger for all manufacturers. According to one study, the EV industry is forecast to grow at a 23.1% CAGR and be worth over $1.1 trillion by 2030.Ford 150 Electric (Ford Website, author screenshot)A positive for Tesla is it doesn't have to convert traditional internal combustion engine facilities into EV manufacturing plants, like many traditional automakers. Tesla is vertically integrated from the ground up and has even developed unique pieces of equipment to manufacture its cars, such as the world's largest \"gigapress\". Elon Musk has often stated in the past that producing a prototype or a low volume of vehicles is \"pretty easy\", but manufacturing at scale is the challenging part. Tesla ramped up its Shanghai factory production in the third quarter and its Berlin factory also produced 2,000 model Y vehicles, although still in the early stages of a full ramp.Tesla's rate of innovation is so great that when traditional auto manufacturers are thinking about breakfast, Tesla is already eating their lunch. For example, I recentlywatchedthe Tesla Semipresentationby Elon Musk, which is currently in production. The company has reinvented trucking with a smooth design which was tested in a state-of-the-art wind chamber, to maximize its range of 500 miles which was astonishing. The truck is also reportedly as \"easy to drive as a Model 3, with basically no training required\" according to Musk.Tesla Semi(Tesla)Tesla has also innovated on the charging front with new \"Megachargers\" announced, that enable charging at a staggering 1 megawatt. This basically means truck batteries can be charged up to 70% in 30 minutes, which is the average amount of time a truck driver will take on a refresh break. The uniquely designed Cybertruck is alsoreportedto start production in 2023 and will benefit from the \"Megachargers\".Tesla increased its energy storage deployed to 2,100 MWh, which increased by a substantial 62% year over year. The company did experience some supply chain constraints as demand continued to \"outstrip supply\".Energy storage (Q3,22 report)Tesla is also innovating on the artificial intelligence front as the company announced its beta Full self-driving and even humanoid robot concept called Optimus, which I have covered in greater detail in past posts. AI has recently seen a huge surge in popularity. The Open AI institute which was originally backed by Elon Musk released the popular ChatGPT, which some analysts believe could rival Google. I could envision a ChatGPT-like AI model embedded into the software of Optimus, which would make it a font of information while also assisting with tasks based upon prompts. This would truly create a \"superintelligence\" quite easily given the component pieces are all available.Tesla AI Day 2022(Tesla)Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.95, which increased by a staggering 93.57% year over year and beat analyst estimates by $0.06. The company also has a strong balance sheet with $21,107 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company does have fairly high debt of $5.87 billion, but just $979 million of this is short term debt, due within the next 2 years.Advanced ValuationI have plugged the latest financials of Tesla into my discounted cash flow valuation model. I have forecasted 30% revenue growth for next year which is fairly conservative given past growth rates of above 50%. I have given a lower estimate due to the tepid macroeconomic environment forecasted. However, in years 2 to 5, I have forecasted a recovery with a 35% revenue growth rate per year.Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)To increase the accuracy of the valuation, I have capitalized R&D expenses which has lifted net income. In addition, I have forecasted a pre-tax operating margin of 20% over the next 10 years, as the company scales and benefits from an increasing amount of cross-selling between its products.Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)Given these factors I get a fair value of $216 per share, the stock is trading at ~$109 per share at the time of writing and thus is ~50% undervalued.As an extra data point, Tesla trades at a Price to Sales ratio = 4.52, which is 52% cheaper than its 5-year average.Data by YChartsRisks-Elon Musk Selling/TwitterA key red flag is the continued sale of Tesla stock by Elon Musk. A mid-December SECfilingreports Elon Musk sold 22 million shares of Tesla stock, with a staggering value of $3.6 billion. Musk is known to have slept in Tesla's factory and is very committed to the company, but when he repeatedly sells stock, it does contradict this narrative.SEC filing(SEC/author annotation)Musk may be selling shares to help pay down some of Twitter's debt, which he has previously made comments about. Many investors (including myself) believe Twitter is a major distraction to Elon Musk's mission at Tesla. In a recentvoteon Twitter, 57% of people asked Elon to step down as the CEO of Twitter, which he said he will abide by when he gets a replacement.CEO vote(Elon Musk Twitter)Other risks include the forecasted recession and competition which I have previously discussed.Final ThoughtsTesla is a tremendous technology company with many competitive advantages from its manufacturing to technology and even its strong brand/community. Tesla has grown into its previously \"high\" valuation by continuing to generate strong financial results. Its stock is now deeply undervalued and thus this could be a great long-term investment. I do predict some short-term volatility over the next 12 months due to the recessionary environment, but Tesla's technology advantages should keep them ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924146468,"gmtCreate":1672205245454,"gmtModify":1676538652435,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"God","listText":"God","text":"God","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924146468","repostId":"1147971350","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147971350","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672192174,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147971350?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-28 09:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Numbers that Defined 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147971350","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"As the curtains come down for 2022, there are six key numbers that come to mind.As the curtains come","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the curtains come down for 2022, there are six key numbers that come to mind.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/428ad7004ebd7e4c3c838c5f3f4f3675\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As the curtains come down for 2022, it’s time to reflect on the events that have defined the stock market for the year.</p><p>There has been no shortage of uncertainty, ranging from the Ukraine-Russia war to the sky-high inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes, to name a few.</p><p>Amid the multitude of challenges we face as an investor, it’s imperative to put everything into the proper context so that we may learn the right lessons from them and not the wrong ones.</p><p>Here are six numbers that come to mind.</p><p><b>January 2022: Four in 10 NASDAQ stocks halved</b></p><p>The <b>NASDAQ</b> peaked at around 16,200 points in late November 2021 before ending the year down by less than four per cent from its high.</p><p>But under the hood, the cracks had started already appearing for the tech-heavy index.</p><p>In the first week of January, data from Sundial Capital Research showed that approximately four out of every 10 companies on the index were down by over 50 per cent from their 52-week highs.</p><p>Furthermore, the majority of stocks within the NASDAQ were down by 20 per cent or more.</p><p>This level of carnage is only exceeded by major bear markets of the past such as the 2000 dot-com bubble, the 2008 great financial crisis (GFC), and the 2020 pandemic crash.</p><p>Sure enough, the NASDAQ entered a bear market in late February.</p><p>For 2022, the index is poised to close the year at 30 per cent below its peak after posting a gain of over 21 per cent in 2021.</p><p><b>March 2022: A record six months of rate hikes</b></p><p>In March 2022, the US Federal Reserve moved to raise interest rates for the first time since December 2018 to combat runaway inflation.</p><p>The initial rate hike was a relatively tepid 0.25 points.</p><p>However, what followed next was far from normal.</p><p>According to data compiled by the Visual Capitalist, the effective federal funds rate rose past the two percentage mark within six months, its fastest increase in decades.</p><p>To put this into context, the US central bank took as much as 36 months to reach the same rate level in its previous rate hike cycle between December 2015 and December 2018.</p><p>In fact, since 1988, the closest example of such an extreme pace was between February 1994 and February 1995 where it took 12 months for the US Fed to increase rates to 2.67 percentage points; that’s still twice the duration of the latest rate hikes.</p><p>In other words, the current pace of increase is abnormal in recent times.</p><p>As investors, we should be mindful of the differences between the different eras before drawing any conclusions. The best lessons, after all, are learnt over years, not months.</p><p><b>June 2022: The worst six-month stretch at halftime</b></p><p>The pace of the rate increases took a toll on financial markets.</p><p>At the halfway mark of 2022, wealth manager Ben Carlson said that the first six months of 2022 was within 3% of the worst-ever six-month stretch for the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> since 1926.</p><p>Similar to January’s date, there were few other periods where the index’s performance was worse, namely the Great Depression in the 1930s, World War II, the 1970s bear market, the dot-com bust and the 2008 GFC crash.</p><p><b>October 2022: Six per cent of foreign currency turmoil</b></p><p>Notably, the rise in US interest rates has wreaked havoc in exchange rates.</p><p>In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the US dollar is at its highest level since 2000.</p><p>The global organisation added that the dollar had appreciated 22 per cent against the Japanese Yen, 13 per cent against the Euro and on average, six per cent against emerging market currencies since the start of the year.</p><p>These sharp changes in currency rates left a mark, especially on US-based companies with international operations.</p><p>For instance, tech giant <b>Microsoft</b> (NASDAQ: MSFT) took a sizable five percentage point topline hit on its latest quarterly results, reducing its revenue growth from 16 per cent year on year (in constant currency terms) to 11 per cent.</p><p>Similarly, healthcare conglomerate <b>Johnson &amp; Johnson</b> (NYSE: JNJ) saw its international sales growth flatline after experiencing a 12.6 per cent currency headwind in its third quarter. Excluding this impact, growth would have a solid 12.3 per cent year on year.</p><p>When it comes to currency, the effect cuts across all industries.</p><p>Everyone suffers the same impact, but the best businesses will still win.</p><p><b>December 2022: Falling below 120 days</b></p><p>As the year winds down, data from financial firm Charles Schwab showed that 2022 had the fewest positive trading days since the 2008 GFC and the 2000 dot-com bust.</p><p>This year, there were less than 120 trading days where stocks from around the world recorded a daily gain.</p><p>Like it or not, as humans, the effect of seeing red ink, day after day and month after month, can have an impact on our investing psyche.</p><p>According to Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, our minds are designed to recognise danger without needing any prompts from us. And when it comes to investing, this innate ability can send the wrong signals to our brains and cause us to panic sell at the wrong time.</p><p>Given the circumstances, it is in our best interest to keep a level head to survive today’s market crash.</p><p><b>December 2022: 50% are looking for remote work</b></p><p>The final stat is symbolic rather than a defining number.</p><p>Amid this year’s doom and gloom, it’s important to remember that innovation has permanently changed the way we live and work.</p><p>Case in point: LinkedIn CEO Ryan Roslansky recently shared an interesting statistic.</p><p>Prior to the pandemic, the number of remote jobs posted on the platform was a mere 1%.</p><p>Today, this proportion has grown to a stunning 14%, suggesting that there is a massive shift in companies willing to accept remote workers. Tellingly, over half of job applicants on Linkedin are targeting remote work, suggesting that it is becoming a key preference.</p><p>This massive shift is a keen reminder that innovation is happening all the time.</p><p>Many of the common digital tools we are familiar with today gained prominence during the pandemic and are here to stay.</p><p>As investors, this is a good place to end the year on an optimistic note.</p><p>While the world is rife with uncertainty today, the investing principles that have served us well for decades will make a difference when the dark clouds clear and it comes time to grow again.</p><p><b>Note:</b> An earlier version of this article appeared in The Business Times.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1602567310727","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Numbers that Defined 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Numbers that Defined 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-28 09:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/6-numbers-that-defined-2022/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the curtains come down for 2022, there are six key numbers that come to mind.As the curtains come down for 2022, it’s time to reflect on the events that have defined the stock market for the year....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/6-numbers-that-defined-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/6-numbers-that-defined-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147971350","content_text":"As the curtains come down for 2022, there are six key numbers that come to mind.As the curtains come down for 2022, it’s time to reflect on the events that have defined the stock market for the year.There has been no shortage of uncertainty, ranging from the Ukraine-Russia war to the sky-high inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes, to name a few.Amid the multitude of challenges we face as an investor, it’s imperative to put everything into the proper context so that we may learn the right lessons from them and not the wrong ones.Here are six numbers that come to mind.January 2022: Four in 10 NASDAQ stocks halvedThe NASDAQ peaked at around 16,200 points in late November 2021 before ending the year down by less than four per cent from its high.But under the hood, the cracks had started already appearing for the tech-heavy index.In the first week of January, data from Sundial Capital Research showed that approximately four out of every 10 companies on the index were down by over 50 per cent from their 52-week highs.Furthermore, the majority of stocks within the NASDAQ were down by 20 per cent or more.This level of carnage is only exceeded by major bear markets of the past such as the 2000 dot-com bubble, the 2008 great financial crisis (GFC), and the 2020 pandemic crash.Sure enough, the NASDAQ entered a bear market in late February.For 2022, the index is poised to close the year at 30 per cent below its peak after posting a gain of over 21 per cent in 2021.March 2022: A record six months of rate hikesIn March 2022, the US Federal Reserve moved to raise interest rates for the first time since December 2018 to combat runaway inflation.The initial rate hike was a relatively tepid 0.25 points.However, what followed next was far from normal.According to data compiled by the Visual Capitalist, the effective federal funds rate rose past the two percentage mark within six months, its fastest increase in decades.To put this into context, the US central bank took as much as 36 months to reach the same rate level in its previous rate hike cycle between December 2015 and December 2018.In fact, since 1988, the closest example of such an extreme pace was between February 1994 and February 1995 where it took 12 months for the US Fed to increase rates to 2.67 percentage points; that’s still twice the duration of the latest rate hikes.In other words, the current pace of increase is abnormal in recent times.As investors, we should be mindful of the differences between the different eras before drawing any conclusions. The best lessons, after all, are learnt over years, not months.June 2022: The worst six-month stretch at halftimeThe pace of the rate increases took a toll on financial markets.At the halfway mark of 2022, wealth manager Ben Carlson said that the first six months of 2022 was within 3% of the worst-ever six-month stretch for the S&P 500 since 1926.Similar to January’s date, there were few other periods where the index’s performance was worse, namely the Great Depression in the 1930s, World War II, the 1970s bear market, the dot-com bust and the 2008 GFC crash.October 2022: Six per cent of foreign currency turmoilNotably, the rise in US interest rates has wreaked havoc in exchange rates.In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the US dollar is at its highest level since 2000.The global organisation added that the dollar had appreciated 22 per cent against the Japanese Yen, 13 per cent against the Euro and on average, six per cent against emerging market currencies since the start of the year.These sharp changes in currency rates left a mark, especially on US-based companies with international operations.For instance, tech giant Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) took a sizable five percentage point topline hit on its latest quarterly results, reducing its revenue growth from 16 per cent year on year (in constant currency terms) to 11 per cent.Similarly, healthcare conglomerate Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) saw its international sales growth flatline after experiencing a 12.6 per cent currency headwind in its third quarter. Excluding this impact, growth would have a solid 12.3 per cent year on year.When it comes to currency, the effect cuts across all industries.Everyone suffers the same impact, but the best businesses will still win.December 2022: Falling below 120 daysAs the year winds down, data from financial firm Charles Schwab showed that 2022 had the fewest positive trading days since the 2008 GFC and the 2000 dot-com bust.This year, there were less than 120 trading days where stocks from around the world recorded a daily gain.Like it or not, as humans, the effect of seeing red ink, day after day and month after month, can have an impact on our investing psyche.According to Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, our minds are designed to recognise danger without needing any prompts from us. And when it comes to investing, this innate ability can send the wrong signals to our brains and cause us to panic sell at the wrong time.Given the circumstances, it is in our best interest to keep a level head to survive today’s market crash.December 2022: 50% are looking for remote workThe final stat is symbolic rather than a defining number.Amid this year’s doom and gloom, it’s important to remember that innovation has permanently changed the way we live and work.Case in point: LinkedIn CEO Ryan Roslansky recently shared an interesting statistic.Prior to the pandemic, the number of remote jobs posted on the platform was a mere 1%.Today, this proportion has grown to a stunning 14%, suggesting that there is a massive shift in companies willing to accept remote workers. Tellingly, over half of job applicants on Linkedin are targeting remote work, suggesting that it is becoming a key preference.This massive shift is a keen reminder that innovation is happening all the time.Many of the common digital tools we are familiar with today gained prominence during the pandemic and are here to stay.As investors, this is a good place to end the year on an optimistic note.While the world is rife with uncertainty today, the investing principles that have served us well for decades will make a difference when the dark clouds clear and it comes time to grow again.Note: An earlier version of this article appeared in The Business Times.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925594771,"gmtCreate":1672059371093,"gmtModify":1676538628112,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925594771","repostId":"1152955091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152955091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672068846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152955091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152955091","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I&#39;m still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&amp;P 500. But I wouldn&#39;t be short, and I wouldn&#39;t be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.</p><p>As for Tesla, I&#39;m not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I&#39;m seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.</p><h3>Tesla&#39;s Outlook</h3><p>Legendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:</p><p>&#34;There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.&#34;</p><p>A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla&#39;s net income has soared:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba100e8982cd53633e2922445131c56\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla&#39;s stock has plummeted. So, what&#39;s going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are &#34;outlook and trend investors.&#34; What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon&#39;s diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla&#39;s market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They&#39;re coming to light.</p><p>As for the market share, Forbes said it best:</p><p>&#34;Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.&#34;</p><p>That&#39;s U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.</p><p>Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker&#39;s stocks haven&#39;t. In addition, Tesla&#39;s displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone&#39;s rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there&#39;s more competition.</p><p>Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla&#39;s customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla&#39;s brand in a brutally competitive auto market.</p><p>One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that&#39;s just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbc8c1f4dbd2317e3869d3baa82c71d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tesla&#39;s Future Growth</h3><p>The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla&#39;s revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.</p><p>The other issue I&#39;m seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla&#39;s never before been this profitable:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3b58724f2aa85e9e67975a8a420129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.</p><p>All things considered, I&#39;m projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.</p><h3>Long-term Returns</h3><p>My 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.</p><p>Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I&#39;ve applied a terminal multiple of 16x.</p><p>Does Tesla&#39;s Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?</p><p>A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e666c6a5e6b8a46f7ae6082479758c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This usually means it&#39;s time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.</p><p>I explained in my article &#34;QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming&#34; why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.</p><p>Rather than looking at stocks that have &#34;gone to the moon,&#34; I&#39;m finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b1d1bc530a801074c58a4c41b77c74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don&#39;t want to buy a company that&#39;s about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I&#39;m seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).</p><h3>In Conclusion</h3><p>I&#39;ve upgraded Tesla to a &#34;sell&#34; from a &#34;strong-sell.&#34; Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a &#34;sell&#34; and &#34;hold&#34; rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros&#39; boom-bust model, I think it&#39;s best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; Until next time, happy investing.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 23:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152955091","content_text":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&P 500. But I wouldn't be short, and I wouldn't be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.As for Tesla, I'm not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I'm seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.Tesla's OutlookLegendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:\"There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.\"A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla's net income has soared:Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla's stock has plummeted. So, what's going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are \"outlook and trend investors.\" What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon's diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla's market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They're coming to light.As for the market share, Forbes said it best:\"Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.\"That's U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker's stocks haven't. In addition, Tesla's displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone's rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there's more competition.Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla's customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla's brand in a brutally competitive auto market.One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that's just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:Tesla's Future GrowthThe number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla's revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.The other issue I'm seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla's never before been this profitable:These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.All things considered, I'm projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.Long-term ReturnsMy 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I've applied a terminal multiple of 16x.Does Tesla's Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:This usually means it's time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.I explained in my article \"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\" why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.Rather than looking at stocks that have \"gone to the moon,\" I'm finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don't want to buy a company that's about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I'm seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).In ConclusionI've upgraded Tesla to a \"sell\" from a \"strong-sell.\" Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a \"sell\" and \"hold\" rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros' boom-bust model, I think it's best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" Until next time, happy investing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925105089,"gmtCreate":1671942390041,"gmtModify":1676538613954,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nicr","listText":"Nicr","text":"Nicr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925105089","repostId":"1192326933","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192326933","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672011741,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192326933?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 07:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192326933","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. ChristmasDay hasarrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c0d643f9647f8bf16257138dcbed8a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p>The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.</p><p>The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.</p><p>The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p><p>The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-26 07:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c0d643f9647f8bf16257138dcbed8a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p>The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.</p><p>The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.</p><p>The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p><p>The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192326933","content_text":"U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925015112,"gmtCreate":1671866574836,"gmtModify":1676538605483,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925015112","repostId":"1192326933","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192326933","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672011741,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192326933?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 07:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192326933","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. ChristmasDay hasarrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c0d643f9647f8bf16257138dcbed8a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p>The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.</p><p>The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.</p><p>The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p><p>The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-26 07:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c0d643f9647f8bf16257138dcbed8a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p>The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.</p><p>The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.</p><p>The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p><p>The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192326933","content_text":"U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":40,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922202953,"gmtCreate":1671766987472,"gmtModify":1676538590217,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922202953","repostId":"1110858932","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110858932","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671757808,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110858932?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-23 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110858932","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"These undervalued blue-chip stocks are all household names and should be great buys in the year ahea","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>These undervalued blue-chip stocks are all household names and should be great buys in the year ahead.</li><li><b>Alphabet</b>(<b><u>GOOG</u></b>, <b><u>GOOGL</u></b>): The 20-for-1 stock split that occurred in July makes this tech name even more affordable.</li><li><b>Bank of America (BAC):</b>The second largest U.S. bank should benefit when loans reset at higher interest rates.</li><li><b>Microsoft</b>(<b><u>MSFT</u></b>): This blue-chip technology stock has a history of delivering value to shareholders.</li><li><b>American Express</b>(<b><u>AXP</u></b>): The credit card giant just reported record financial results despite economic challenges.</li><li><b>Amazon</b>(<b><u>AMZN</u></b>): The e-commerce company’s stock is down nearly 50% this year and trading under $100.</li><li><b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (<b><u>BRK-B</u></b>): Warren Buffett has been on a buying spree this year.</li><li><b>Target</b>(<b><u>TGT</u></b>): A low P/E ratio and a strong dividend make the shares of the department store operator attractive.</li></ul><p>Undervalued blue-chip stocks are a little easier to find in the midst of the current bear market. There are bargains to be found for investors who can stomach short-term volatility. The broad-based decline in equities this year means that some of the best-run and most dominant companies in the U.S. are undervalued and trading at a huge discount relative to their current and future earnings.</p><p>This presents huge buying opportunities for investors. And while stocks may nothave reached the bottom just yet, there are plenty of undervalued blue-chip stocks available at fire-sale prices. These stocks should pay off handsomely in the long term. Here are seven undervalued blue-chip stocks to buy now.</p><p><b>Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy: Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL)</b></p><p>The shares of technology behemoth <b>Alphabet</b> (NASDAQ: <b><u>GOOG</u></b>, NASDAQ: <b><u>GOOGL</u></b>) are not likely to be this affordable again for a very long time. Following the Google parent company’s most recent earnings report, GOOGL stock dropped 6%, pulling its share price down to its current level of $88. At one point, the stock was as low $83 a share.</p><p>To be sure, Alphabet’s latest earnings print was ugly. Owing largely to a drop off in online advertising at YouTube, Alphabet’s Q3 results missed analysts’ average expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The company announced earnings per share of $1.06 versus analysts’ average estimate of $1.25, according to <i>Refinitiv’s</i>data. Its Q3 revenue amounted to $69.09 billion, compared to the mean estimate of $70.60 billion.</p><p>YouTube’s ad revenue fell 2%year-over-year in the quarter while analysts, on average, were expecting an increase of 3%. In response to the poor Q3 showing, Alphabet announced several cost-cutting measures, including canceling the next generation of its Pixelbook laptop computer and plans to close its digital gaming service called Stadia. The company also said it plans to reduce its workforce in the coming months.</p><p>The added pressure on GOOGL stock following the Q3 earnings has dragged the shares’ value down a total of 38% on the year. (A 20-for-1 stock splitin July also lowered the share price). While discouraging, the decline makes Alphabet stock look very attractive at its current levels. The company’s price-earnings (P/E) ratio has dropped along with the share price to an attractive level of 19 times forward earnings, which is below the average among large-cap technology stocks of 25 times.</p><p>This year’s pullback is one of the steepest in the company’s history. Investors should take advantage of this rare opportunity.</p><p><b>Bank of America (BAC)</b></p><p><b>Bank of America</b> (NYSE: <b><u>BAC</u></b>) stock looks extremely undervalued at its current price. Down 29% on the year amid a broad selloff in all bank stocks, BAC is currently one of the cheapest stocks to buy and is very well-positioned to rebound.</p><p>The decline of the shares doesn’t take away from the fact that Bank of America, the second-biggest lender in the U.S., remains a very appealing long-term investment.</p><p>Bank of America should perform well going forward as the interest on its variable rate loans resets at higher levels following rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.</p><p>Additionally, Bank of America has increased its deposit base, which now sits at $1 trillion, and has invested significantly in technology to improve its online presence and electronic transactions.</p><p>Plus, Bank of America has a big wealth management arm, and its trading unit continues to make hayout of the current stock market volatility. All in all, Bank of America remains a great, undervalued,  blue-chip stocktha5t should be bought while it’s on sale.</p><p><b>Microsoft (MSFT)</b></p><p>Seattle-based <b>Microsoft</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>MSFT</u></b>) is an undervalued blue-chip technology stock. Founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen in 1975 and publicly traded since March 1986, Microsoft today is a well-diversified and battle-tested technology company that is involved in everything from computer software and video games to online search and cloud computing. The company is hugely profitable and generates positive cash flow. And its stock has been a consistent winner for shareholders over the years.</p><p>While MSFT stock is down 27% this year, it is up nearly 200% over the past five years and has gained 830% since November 2012. Today Microsoft has a market capitalization of nearly $2 trillion, a reasonable price-earnings ratio of 26, and is one of the few mega-cap tech stocks that actually pays shareholders a quarterly dividend.</p><p>While the company has not been immune to the economic headwinds afflicting the global economy this year, it remains one of the tech giants best positioned to weather the storm and come out stronger on the other side.</p><p>Currently trading at $236 a share,  MSFT stock should be bought on weakness.</p><p><b>Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy: American Express (AXP)</b></p><p>Credit card giant <b>American Express</b> (NYSE:<b>AXP</b>) just issued its third-quarter results, and they were impressive despite signs of a slowing global economy and weak consumer spending.</p><p>The credit card network reported that its Q3 revenue grew 24% from the same period a year earlier to $13.6 billion, a record high. At the same time, American Express’ profit rose to $1.8 billion, or $2.47 a share.</p><p>Both the top-and bottom-line numbers beat the mean expectations of Wall Street analysts. Their average estimate called for earnings per share of $2.40 on $13.5 billion of revenue, according to data from <b>FactSet</b>.</p><p>AmEx said that it continues to benefit from customers who are managing to shop and travel despite high inflation and other economic pressures.</p><p>While AXP stock has risen in the days since its Q3 print, the company’s share price remains down 11%in 2022. The stock currently trades at 14 times its forward earnings and offers shareholders a dividend that yields 1.36%.</p><p><b>Amazon (AMZN)</b></p><p><b>Amazon’s</b>(NASDAQ: <b><u>AMZN</u></b>) stock is now trading near $84 a share. Consider that a Christmas gift.</p><p>Following Amazon’s disappointing third-quarter earnings and lowered guidance, AMZN stock is down nearly 50% in 2022. Even a 20-for-1 stock split undertaken at the beginning of June hasn’t helped the share price any.</p><p>Having given up most of the gains it achieved during the pandemic when consumers were forced to shop online, AMZN stock seems to have been abandoned by consumers. Yet analysts say that is a mistake, and the company is poised for a rebound.</p><p>For its part, Amazon is doing what it can to try to raise its share price, as the company earlier this year announced a $10 billion stock buyback program.</p><p>Amazon also completed its second Prime sales event of the year in October, which should give its fourth-quarter earnings a boost. Further, the company has reduced its staff levels and taken other cost-cutting measures as it tries to adjust to the current economic environment.</p><p>While Amazon’s price-earnings (P/E) ratio is hefty at 80 times earnings, it is not that high when one considers the company’s nearly $1 trillion market capitalization or that it generates more than $100 billion of revenue each quarter. Take advantage of the shares’ weakness and buy AMZN stock while its on sale at bargain basement prices.</p><p><b>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)</b></p><p>Viewed by many as the ultimate blue-chip stock, <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE: <b><u>BRK.A</u></b>, NYSE: <b><u>BRK-B</u></b>), the holding company of Warren Buffett, has not been immune to the market downturn this year. In the last six months, BRK-B stock has risen a slight 2%. That’s better than the overall market, but it’s a weak performance for Buffett’s traditionally strong stock.</p><p>In many ways the performance of Berkshire’s shares is curious given Buffett’s excellent track record of finding bargains in down markets. The current bear market has been no exception, with Buffett spending more than $50 billion to take positions in stocks such as <b>Occidental Petroleum</b> (NYSE: <b><u>OXY</u></b>) and <b>Ally Financial</b>(NYSE: <b><u>ALLY</u></b>). He has also expanded his positions in key holdings such as <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>).</p><p>While Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t pay a dividend, its stock has a ridiculously low P/E ratio of 0.038 times future earnings, and Buffett is aggressive when it comes to buying back his own stock anytime he feels it is undervalued. In the last year, he has repurchased a record $27 billion of Berkshire stock.</p><p><b>Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy: Target (TGT)</b></p><p><b>Target</b> (NYSE: <b><u>TGT</u></b>) stock has dropped 38% in 2022, making it one of the most undervalued stocks in retail.</p><p>The shares of the big-box department store chain had been holding up fairly well until late spring. That’s when the company reported Q1 earnings that showed that inflation had affected its bottom line and that it had excessive inventory.</p><p>While Target has made progress in unwinding its inventories, the company continues to struggle with a host of issues. In mid-November, Target reported a third-quarter earnings miss, warned of soft holiday sales, and trimmed its fourth-quarter guidance.</p><p>As one might expect, the Q3 print didn’t go over well with analysts or investors. Target cited inflationary pressures that are forcing consumers to prioritize spending as the reason for the poor financial results and difficult outlook. Target also announced plans to cut $3 billion in costs by 2025.</p><p>While TGT stock is currently declining, investors should play the long game with this security and buy shares while they are undervalued.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-23 09:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/undervalued-blue-chip-stocks/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These undervalued blue-chip stocks are all household names and should be great buys in the year ahead.Alphabet(GOOG, GOOGL): The 20-for-1 stock split that occurred in July makes this tech name even ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/undervalued-blue-chip-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TGT":"塔吉特","GOOG":"谷歌","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AMZN":"亚马逊","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BAC":"美国银行","AXP":"美国运通","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/undervalued-blue-chip-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110858932","content_text":"These undervalued blue-chip stocks are all household names and should be great buys in the year ahead.Alphabet(GOOG, GOOGL): The 20-for-1 stock split that occurred in July makes this tech name even more affordable.Bank of America (BAC):The second largest U.S. bank should benefit when loans reset at higher interest rates.Microsoft(MSFT): This blue-chip technology stock has a history of delivering value to shareholders.American Express(AXP): The credit card giant just reported record financial results despite economic challenges.Amazon(AMZN): The e-commerce company’s stock is down nearly 50% this year and trading under $100.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B): Warren Buffett has been on a buying spree this year.Target(TGT): A low P/E ratio and a strong dividend make the shares of the department store operator attractive.Undervalued blue-chip stocks are a little easier to find in the midst of the current bear market. There are bargains to be found for investors who can stomach short-term volatility. The broad-based decline in equities this year means that some of the best-run and most dominant companies in the U.S. are undervalued and trading at a huge discount relative to their current and future earnings.This presents huge buying opportunities for investors. And while stocks may nothave reached the bottom just yet, there are plenty of undervalued blue-chip stocks available at fire-sale prices. These stocks should pay off handsomely in the long term. Here are seven undervalued blue-chip stocks to buy now.Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy: Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL)The shares of technology behemoth Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG, NASDAQ: GOOGL) are not likely to be this affordable again for a very long time. Following the Google parent company’s most recent earnings report, GOOGL stock dropped 6%, pulling its share price down to its current level of $88. At one point, the stock was as low $83 a share.To be sure, Alphabet’s latest earnings print was ugly. Owing largely to a drop off in online advertising at YouTube, Alphabet’s Q3 results missed analysts’ average expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The company announced earnings per share of $1.06 versus analysts’ average estimate of $1.25, according to Refinitiv’sdata. Its Q3 revenue amounted to $69.09 billion, compared to the mean estimate of $70.60 billion.YouTube’s ad revenue fell 2%year-over-year in the quarter while analysts, on average, were expecting an increase of 3%. In response to the poor Q3 showing, Alphabet announced several cost-cutting measures, including canceling the next generation of its Pixelbook laptop computer and plans to close its digital gaming service called Stadia. The company also said it plans to reduce its workforce in the coming months.The added pressure on GOOGL stock following the Q3 earnings has dragged the shares’ value down a total of 38% on the year. (A 20-for-1 stock splitin July also lowered the share price). While discouraging, the decline makes Alphabet stock look very attractive at its current levels. The company’s price-earnings (P/E) ratio has dropped along with the share price to an attractive level of 19 times forward earnings, which is below the average among large-cap technology stocks of 25 times.This year’s pullback is one of the steepest in the company’s history. Investors should take advantage of this rare opportunity.Bank of America (BAC)Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) stock looks extremely undervalued at its current price. Down 29% on the year amid a broad selloff in all bank stocks, BAC is currently one of the cheapest stocks to buy and is very well-positioned to rebound.The decline of the shares doesn’t take away from the fact that Bank of America, the second-biggest lender in the U.S., remains a very appealing long-term investment.Bank of America should perform well going forward as the interest on its variable rate loans resets at higher levels following rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.Additionally, Bank of America has increased its deposit base, which now sits at $1 trillion, and has invested significantly in technology to improve its online presence and electronic transactions.Plus, Bank of America has a big wealth management arm, and its trading unit continues to make hayout of the current stock market volatility. All in all, Bank of America remains a great, undervalued,  blue-chip stocktha5t should be bought while it’s on sale.Microsoft (MSFT)Seattle-based Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is an undervalued blue-chip technology stock. Founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen in 1975 and publicly traded since March 1986, Microsoft today is a well-diversified and battle-tested technology company that is involved in everything from computer software and video games to online search and cloud computing. The company is hugely profitable and generates positive cash flow. And its stock has been a consistent winner for shareholders over the years.While MSFT stock is down 27% this year, it is up nearly 200% over the past five years and has gained 830% since November 2012. Today Microsoft has a market capitalization of nearly $2 trillion, a reasonable price-earnings ratio of 26, and is one of the few mega-cap tech stocks that actually pays shareholders a quarterly dividend.While the company has not been immune to the economic headwinds afflicting the global economy this year, it remains one of the tech giants best positioned to weather the storm and come out stronger on the other side.Currently trading at $236 a share,  MSFT stock should be bought on weakness.Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy: American Express (AXP)Credit card giant American Express (NYSE:AXP) just issued its third-quarter results, and they were impressive despite signs of a slowing global economy and weak consumer spending.The credit card network reported that its Q3 revenue grew 24% from the same period a year earlier to $13.6 billion, a record high. At the same time, American Express’ profit rose to $1.8 billion, or $2.47 a share.Both the top-and bottom-line numbers beat the mean expectations of Wall Street analysts. Their average estimate called for earnings per share of $2.40 on $13.5 billion of revenue, according to data from FactSet.AmEx said that it continues to benefit from customers who are managing to shop and travel despite high inflation and other economic pressures.While AXP stock has risen in the days since its Q3 print, the company’s share price remains down 11%in 2022. The stock currently trades at 14 times its forward earnings and offers shareholders a dividend that yields 1.36%.Amazon (AMZN)Amazon’s(NASDAQ: AMZN) stock is now trading near $84 a share. Consider that a Christmas gift.Following Amazon’s disappointing third-quarter earnings and lowered guidance, AMZN stock is down nearly 50% in 2022. Even a 20-for-1 stock split undertaken at the beginning of June hasn’t helped the share price any.Having given up most of the gains it achieved during the pandemic when consumers were forced to shop online, AMZN stock seems to have been abandoned by consumers. Yet analysts say that is a mistake, and the company is poised for a rebound.For its part, Amazon is doing what it can to try to raise its share price, as the company earlier this year announced a $10 billion stock buyback program.Amazon also completed its second Prime sales event of the year in October, which should give its fourth-quarter earnings a boost. Further, the company has reduced its staff levels and taken other cost-cutting measures as it tries to adjust to the current economic environment.While Amazon’s price-earnings (P/E) ratio is hefty at 80 times earnings, it is not that high when one considers the company’s nearly $1 trillion market capitalization or that it generates more than $100 billion of revenue each quarter. Take advantage of the shares’ weakness and buy AMZN stock while its on sale at bargain basement prices.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)Viewed by many as the ultimate blue-chip stock, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A, NYSE: BRK-B), the holding company of Warren Buffett, has not been immune to the market downturn this year. In the last six months, BRK-B stock has risen a slight 2%. That’s better than the overall market, but it’s a weak performance for Buffett’s traditionally strong stock.In many ways the performance of Berkshire’s shares is curious given Buffett’s excellent track record of finding bargains in down markets. The current bear market has been no exception, with Buffett spending more than $50 billion to take positions in stocks such as Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) and Ally Financial(NYSE: ALLY). He has also expanded his positions in key holdings such as Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL).While Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t pay a dividend, its stock has a ridiculously low P/E ratio of 0.038 times future earnings, and Buffett is aggressive when it comes to buying back his own stock anytime he feels it is undervalued. In the last year, he has repurchased a record $27 billion of Berkshire stock.Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy: Target (TGT)Target (NYSE: TGT) stock has dropped 38% in 2022, making it one of the most undervalued stocks in retail.The shares of the big-box department store chain had been holding up fairly well until late spring. That’s when the company reported Q1 earnings that showed that inflation had affected its bottom line and that it had excessive inventory.While Target has made progress in unwinding its inventories, the company continues to struggle with a host of issues. In mid-November, Target reported a third-quarter earnings miss, warned of soft holiday sales, and trimmed its fourth-quarter guidance.As one might expect, the Q3 print didn’t go over well with analysts or investors. Target cited inflationary pressures that are forcing consumers to prioritize spending as the reason for the poor financial results and difficult outlook. Target also announced plans to cut $3 billion in costs by 2025.While TGT stock is currently declining, investors should play the long game with this security and buy shares while they are undervalued.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922072598,"gmtCreate":1671665538515,"gmtModify":1676538571776,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922072598","repostId":"2293314960","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2293314960","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671720814,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2293314960?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-22 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Bull vs. Bear","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2293314960","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Is the iPhone maker a winning stock going into 2023?","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>KEY POINTS</h2><ul><li>Apple has dominated consumer tech hardware for a generation.</li><li>The stock is well-priced after the recent sell-off, according to the bull case.</li><li>There&#39;s more uncertainty than investors think, according to the bear case.</li></ul><p>For much of the past two decades, <b>Apple</b> has been a star not just in the business world, but in the stock market as well.</p><p>The company dominates consumer tech hardware. It has the largest market cap of any U.S. company, and it even counts Warren Buffett as one of its biggest fans.</p><p>However, while Apple may have an admirable track record, that doesn&#39;t necessarily mean its future is equally bright. Is Apple stock a buy today? Keep reading as two Motley Fool contributors discuss the bull and bear cases for the tech giant.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc5c86bca0f523b18f31d90c264b1487\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Image source: Apple.</span></p><h2>The numbers speak for themselves</h2><p><b>Parkev Tatevosian</b> <b>(Bull case):</b> My bull case for Apple starts with its demonstrated ability to repeatedly create innovative tech hardware that consumers willingly pay premium prices to buy. The iPhone is arguably one of the most significant consumer products in the world (as measured by dollars spent). Notable products like the iPod, the iMac, and more preceded the legendary smartphone. Since the iPhone, Apple&#39;s produced sought-after devices like the iPad, Apple Watch, Airpods, and more. Most importantly, millions of people pay premium prices for each of the aforementioned, leaving excellent profit margins for Apple and its shareholders.</p><p>Between 2013 and 2022, Apple&#39;s annual sales soared from $171 billion to $394 billion. Considering the diverse and large markets in which Apple sells products, it is not likely to hit the ceiling on sales anytime soon despite its already massive scale. The pricing power that Apple earned over decades of improving the customer experience allowed it to average an operating profit margin of 28.3% in that time.</p><p>Admittedly, these are all backward-looking figures, but Apple&#39;s highly connected ecosystem makes it less likely for customers to switch to a competitor&#39;s product. In other words, many of yesterday&#39;s customers will likely stick with Apple longer-term.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4840b837074a86f7ea8f6ae8b5f1350a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>AAPL data by YCharts</span></p><p>The bear market in 2022 brought Apple&#39;s stock down meaningfully. Today&#39;s investors can buy Apple stock at a price-to-earnings and price-to-free cash flow of 21.7 and 19.4, respectively. This is a relatively fair price to pay for an excellent business. Investors will do well in building wealth if they can buy great companies at reasonable prices.</p><h2>What have you done for me lately?</h2><p><b>Jeremy Bowman (Bear case):</b> It&#39;s hard to question Apple&#39;s bona fides, as the company is one of the biggest in the world, and generates huge margins. But stocks are generally valued based on future cash flows, and Apple&#39;s may not be as strong as the market seems to think.</p><p>In Apple&#39;s most recent quarter, revenue was up 8%, and earnings per share grew just 4%. According to Wall Street, this is not the growth stock that some might like to think it is. Apple didn&#39;t give specific guidance in its most recent earnings report, but the company said it expected revenue to slow sequentially in the current quarter due to the macroeconomic environment, a 10-percentage-point headwind from currency exchange, and difficult comparisons in the Mac segment.</p><p>Wall Street, meanwhile, expects revenue growth of just 2.7% in the current fiscal year, and even slower growth in earnings per share. In fiscal 2024, it only expects top and bottom line growth to improve slightly.</p><p>Apple has built a dominant consumer franchise, but there are also real risks to the company as rivals push forward with the next computing platform. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a></b>, for example, will spend close to $20 billion next year to make its visions of the metaverse a reality, and other companies like <b>Nvidia</b> and <b>Microsoft</b> are pushing past the mobile computing era as well.</p><p>Apple still gets more than half of its revenue from the iPhone, which it first introduced 15 years ago. And while the company has had success in raising prices on its trademark smartphone, it&#39;s bound to reach a limit in what people are willing to pay, especially with a global recession potentially around the corner. The law of large numbers will eventually catch up to it, and it will run out of new customers to convert.</p><p>Finally, Apple&#39;s services segment, which is underpinned by its App Store, is facing more legal challenges as companies balk at its 30% commission fee. We could see a reckoning in the App Store model over the coming years.</p><p>Overall, Apple&#39;s strengths as a business are self-evident, but investors can find better growth at this valuation elsewhere.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Bull vs. Bear</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Bull vs. Bear\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-22 22:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/21/apple-stock-bull-vs-bear/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSApple has dominated consumer tech hardware for a generation.The stock is well-priced after the recent sell-off, according to the bull case.There's more uncertainty than investors think, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/21/apple-stock-bull-vs-bear/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4507":"流媒体概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/21/apple-stock-bull-vs-bear/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2293314960","content_text":"KEY POINTSApple has dominated consumer tech hardware for a generation.The stock is well-priced after the recent sell-off, according to the bull case.There's more uncertainty than investors think, according to the bear case.For much of the past two decades, Apple has been a star not just in the business world, but in the stock market as well.The company dominates consumer tech hardware. It has the largest market cap of any U.S. company, and it even counts Warren Buffett as one of its biggest fans.However, while Apple may have an admirable track record, that doesn't necessarily mean its future is equally bright. Is Apple stock a buy today? Keep reading as two Motley Fool contributors discuss the bull and bear cases for the tech giant.Image source: Apple.The numbers speak for themselvesParkev Tatevosian (Bull case): My bull case for Apple starts with its demonstrated ability to repeatedly create innovative tech hardware that consumers willingly pay premium prices to buy. The iPhone is arguably one of the most significant consumer products in the world (as measured by dollars spent). Notable products like the iPod, the iMac, and more preceded the legendary smartphone. Since the iPhone, Apple's produced sought-after devices like the iPad, Apple Watch, Airpods, and more. Most importantly, millions of people pay premium prices for each of the aforementioned, leaving excellent profit margins for Apple and its shareholders.Between 2013 and 2022, Apple's annual sales soared from $171 billion to $394 billion. Considering the diverse and large markets in which Apple sells products, it is not likely to hit the ceiling on sales anytime soon despite its already massive scale. The pricing power that Apple earned over decades of improving the customer experience allowed it to average an operating profit margin of 28.3% in that time.Admittedly, these are all backward-looking figures, but Apple's highly connected ecosystem makes it less likely for customers to switch to a competitor's product. In other words, many of yesterday's customers will likely stick with Apple longer-term.AAPL data by YChartsThe bear market in 2022 brought Apple's stock down meaningfully. Today's investors can buy Apple stock at a price-to-earnings and price-to-free cash flow of 21.7 and 19.4, respectively. This is a relatively fair price to pay for an excellent business. Investors will do well in building wealth if they can buy great companies at reasonable prices.What have you done for me lately?Jeremy Bowman (Bear case): It's hard to question Apple's bona fides, as the company is one of the biggest in the world, and generates huge margins. But stocks are generally valued based on future cash flows, and Apple's may not be as strong as the market seems to think.In Apple's most recent quarter, revenue was up 8%, and earnings per share grew just 4%. According to Wall Street, this is not the growth stock that some might like to think it is. Apple didn't give specific guidance in its most recent earnings report, but the company said it expected revenue to slow sequentially in the current quarter due to the macroeconomic environment, a 10-percentage-point headwind from currency exchange, and difficult comparisons in the Mac segment.Wall Street, meanwhile, expects revenue growth of just 2.7% in the current fiscal year, and even slower growth in earnings per share. In fiscal 2024, it only expects top and bottom line growth to improve slightly.Apple has built a dominant consumer franchise, but there are also real risks to the company as rivals push forward with the next computing platform. Meta Platforms, for example, will spend close to $20 billion next year to make its visions of the metaverse a reality, and other companies like Nvidia and Microsoft are pushing past the mobile computing era as well.Apple still gets more than half of its revenue from the iPhone, which it first introduced 15 years ago. And while the company has had success in raising prices on its trademark smartphone, it's bound to reach a limit in what people are willing to pay, especially with a global recession potentially around the corner. The law of large numbers will eventually catch up to it, and it will run out of new customers to convert.Finally, Apple's services segment, which is underpinned by its App Store, is facing more legal challenges as companies balk at its 30% commission fee. We could see a reckoning in the App Store model over the coming years.Overall, Apple's strengths as a business are self-evident, but investors can find better growth at this valuation elsewhere.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926506723,"gmtCreate":1671578891563,"gmtModify":1676538557868,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926506723","repostId":"2293365697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2293365697","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671577878,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2293365697?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-21 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall St Closes Slightly Higher After Four-Day Sell off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2293365697","media":"Reuters","summary":"Wall Street closed slightly higher on Tuesday after four sessions of declines, but investors fretted","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street closed slightly higher on Tuesday after four sessions of declines, but investors fretted about weak holiday shopping and rising bond yields added pressure after the Bank of Japan&#39;s (BoJ) surprise tweak of monetary policy.</p><p>Fears about the Federal Reserve&#39;s plan to keep raising U.S. interest rates have weighed heavily on equities since its policy meeting last week.</p><p>Adding pressure was an increase in U.S. Treasury yields after the BOJ made a surprise tweak to its bond yield control that allows long-term interest rates to rise more.</p><p>&#34;The Bank of Japan&#39;s news moved the bond market and continues to have an impact,&#34; said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer, Independent Advisor Alliance, Charlotte, NC.</p><p>Investors were also worrying about the current quarter earnings season and winter holiday shopping.</p><p>&#34;We came into it with some pretty reasonable expectations but retailers are having to do massive sales,&#34; said Carol Schleif, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, BMO family office in Minneapolis, Minnesota noting that consumers this year are veering toward &#34;services and events - vacation tickets and restaurant gift certificates and things like that - as opposed to another sweater or another bag.&#34;</p><p>Schleif noted that investors are wary after a volatile year in equities with the S&amp;P on track for its biggest annual decline since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>&#34;People have gotten their heads handed to them all year and they&#39;re not confident enough to want to step in,&#34; she said.</p><p>&#34;That&#39;s what leads to this push me pull you kind of market where it&#39;s up a little down a little and it&#39;s really hard for any segment of the investing public to want to get to want to spin a narrative they would put a whole bunch of money behind.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 92.2 points, or 0.28%, to 32,849.74, the S&amp;P 500 gained 3.96 points, or 0.10%, to 3,821.62 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.08 points, or 0.01%, to 10,547.11.</p><p>Among the S&amp;P 500&#39;s 11 major sectors, the energy index gained most, finishing up 1.52% as crude oil prices rose.</p><p>Of the four sectors that declined, consumer discretionary was the weakest, finishing down 1.13%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Transport average closed down 1.3% after underperforming the broader market throughout the session following JPMorgan&#39;s</p><p>bearish research on transport companies.</p><p>FedEx Corp closed down 2.6% ahead of its quarterly report. But shares in the delivery company, which spooked the entire market in September by pulling its financial forecast, were last up more than 3% in volatile after the bell trading following its fiscal second-quarter report and 2023 guidance.</p><p>In fixed income, U.S. Treasury prices fell after the BOJ&#39;s shock move, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rising to a three-week high of 3.71%.</p><p>Also on Tuesday, data showed U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled to a 2-1/2 year low in November and permits for future construction plunged as higher mortgage rates continued to depress housing market activity.</p><p>General Mills Inc shares sank 4.6% after quarterly sales at its high-margin pet business took a hit due to key retailers cutting back on inventory, overshadowing an increase in its full-year earnings and sales forecast.</p><p>Tesla Inc shares tumbled 8% after at least three brokerages cut the electric vehicle maker&#39;s target price on growing concerns of demand weakness and risk from Chief Executive Elon Musk&#39;s struggles at Twitter.</p><p>Wells Fargo &amp; Co slid 2% after U.S. regulators fined the lender $3.7 billion, citing widespread mismanagement of auto loans, mortgages and deposit accounts.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 399 new lows.</p><p>On U.S. exchanges 10.52 billion shares changed hands, compared with the 11.15 billion average for the last 20 trading days.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec7d47359d6404e27dc4ac5562e376a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall St Closes Slightly Higher After Four-Day Sell off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall St Closes Slightly Higher After Four-Day Sell off\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-21 07:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-closes-214057093.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wall Street closed slightly higher on Tuesday after four sessions of declines, but investors fretted about weak holiday shopping and rising bond yields added pressure after the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-closes-214057093.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-closes-214057093.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2293365697","content_text":"Wall Street closed slightly higher on Tuesday after four sessions of declines, but investors fretted about weak holiday shopping and rising bond yields added pressure after the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) surprise tweak of monetary policy.Fears about the Federal Reserve's plan to keep raising U.S. interest rates have weighed heavily on equities since its policy meeting last week.Adding pressure was an increase in U.S. Treasury yields after the BOJ made a surprise tweak to its bond yield control that allows long-term interest rates to rise more.\"The Bank of Japan's news moved the bond market and continues to have an impact,\" said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer, Independent Advisor Alliance, Charlotte, NC.Investors were also worrying about the current quarter earnings season and winter holiday shopping.\"We came into it with some pretty reasonable expectations but retailers are having to do massive sales,\" said Carol Schleif, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, BMO family office in Minneapolis, Minnesota noting that consumers this year are veering toward \"services and events - vacation tickets and restaurant gift certificates and things like that - as opposed to another sweater or another bag.\"Schleif noted that investors are wary after a volatile year in equities with the S&P on track for its biggest annual decline since the 2008 financial crisis.\"People have gotten their heads handed to them all year and they're not confident enough to want to step in,\" she said.\"That's what leads to this push me pull you kind of market where it's up a little down a little and it's really hard for any segment of the investing public to want to get to want to spin a narrative they would put a whole bunch of money behind.\"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 92.2 points, or 0.28%, to 32,849.74, the S&P 500 gained 3.96 points, or 0.10%, to 3,821.62 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.08 points, or 0.01%, to 10,547.11.Among the S&P 500's 11 major sectors, the energy index gained most, finishing up 1.52% as crude oil prices rose.Of the four sectors that declined, consumer discretionary was the weakest, finishing down 1.13%.The Dow Jones Transport average closed down 1.3% after underperforming the broader market throughout the session following JPMorgan'sbearish research on transport companies.FedEx Corp closed down 2.6% ahead of its quarterly report. But shares in the delivery company, which spooked the entire market in September by pulling its financial forecast, were last up more than 3% in volatile after the bell trading following its fiscal second-quarter report and 2023 guidance.In fixed income, U.S. Treasury prices fell after the BOJ's shock move, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rising to a three-week high of 3.71%.Also on Tuesday, data showed U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled to a 2-1/2 year low in November and permits for future construction plunged as higher mortgage rates continued to depress housing market activity.General Mills Inc shares sank 4.6% after quarterly sales at its high-margin pet business took a hit due to key retailers cutting back on inventory, overshadowing an increase in its full-year earnings and sales forecast.Tesla Inc shares tumbled 8% after at least three brokerages cut the electric vehicle maker's target price on growing concerns of demand weakness and risk from Chief Executive Elon Musk's struggles at Twitter.Wells Fargo & Co slid 2% after U.S. regulators fined the lender $3.7 billion, citing widespread mismanagement of auto loans, mortgages and deposit accounts.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 399 new lows.On U.S. exchanges 10.52 billion shares changed hands, compared with the 11.15 billion average for the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926817282,"gmtCreate":1671508107547,"gmtModify":1676538548024,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"God","listText":"God","text":"God","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926817282","repostId":"2292487749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2292487749","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671498036,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2292487749?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-20 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk Is a Genius Market Timer. That’s Bad News for Tesla Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2292487749","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Last Wednesday, we finally got the announcement:Elon Musk had sold another $3.6 billion of Tesla (NA","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Last Wednesday, we finally got the announcement:</p><p><i>Elon Musk had sold another $3.6 billion of </i><i><b>Tesla</b></i><i> (NASDAQ:</i><i><b>TSLA</b></i><i>) stock earlier in the week.</i> (SEC filings tend to lag several days behind transactions).</p><p>Such a sale had been months in the making. Not only did Mr. Musk likely overpay for his Twitter acquisition. A series of unforced errors has turned the social media company into a cash-burning furnace. The world’s formerly richest person has now sold $22.6 billion Tesla stock since April… And <i>still</i> has around $3.1 billion in miscellaneous liabilities, according to the <i>Bloomberg Billionaires Index</i>.</p><p><i>Let that sink in. </i></p><p>Yet, the big headlines also obscure a non-laughing matter: Mr. Musk chose to <b>sell</b> his Tesla shares outright rather than use them as loan collateral as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> allegedly floated.</p><p>And that’s a big difference.</p><p><b>If past is prologue, Elon Musk is signaling to get out of TSLA stock now</b>.</p><h2>The Genius of Market Timing</h2><p>CEOs and other executives routinely trade shares of their own companies. It’s a strategy that typically leads to a 15% outperformance and is the basis of my <b>Insider Track strategy</b>. $200,000 invested at that rate would be worth almost $15 million only 20 years later. Plenty to retire on, and enough to buy a cheap social media site of your own.</p><p>The strategy is also entirely legal for the executives <i>and</i> those who mirror their trades. As long as executives 1) avoid trading during “blackout” periods immediately preceding earnings releases and 2) report their transactions to the SEC in a timely manner, they can use their personal knowledge of the business to profit as they please. Investors like you and me can use these SEC filings to mimic these gains with surprisingly little slippage.</p><p>Some individuals take these SEC-granted freedoms to extremes. A 2021 report by the Wall Street Journal found dozens of federal judges who traded stocks of litigants during cases. One such judge bought thousands of dollars of <b>Medtronic</b> (NYSE:<b>MDT</b>) while overseeing a lawsuit involving a potentially defective Medtronic graft implanted into a 12-year-old boy. The case was dismissed, and shares of the medical device firm rose by double digits.</p><p>Others simply follow along. I’ve also used the strategy to identify big winners like <b>Longeveron</b> (NASDAQ:<b>LGVN</b>) — a company that returned almost 1,000% in three months on a “surprise” FDA authorization. Some gold miners have also done quite well after “discovering” new veins after insider purchasing.</p><p>And that brings us to Elon Musk, a genius stock market timer.</p><h2>How to Earn Millions Without Really Trying</h2><p>In 2017, Elon Musk began scooping up large chunks of Tesla’s beaten-down shares. The electric vehicle maker was on track to lose $2.2 billion that year and liquidity was becoming a concern.</p><p>Within three months of his $35 million purchase (these were the old days before he was worth hundreds of billions), Mr. Musk would announce that he had reached a blockbuster deal to refinance his firm. Tesla would raise $1.8 billion in bonds, and rising shares would award Mr. Musk a windfall profit.</p><p>Tesla’s CEO would use a similar strategy in 2018 after buying $25 million more in shares… and then announcing plans to take the company private. Another series of well-timed buys in May 2019 and February 2020 would rise between 206% and 235%. These were some of the most profitable trades tracked by TipRanks.</p><p>In late 2021, however, Mr. Musk’s tack began to change. Rather than <i>buy</i> stock, he began to sell.</p><p>And he sold a great deal.</p><p>At that point, I had already turned bearish about Tesla eleven months earlier. “It’s time to take profits on Tesla,” I wrote in January of that year. “Bullish dreamers have turned Tesla stock into an outright fantasy.”</p><p>Mr. Musk’s timing was even better than mine. Had investors waited until November to sell, they would have earned an extra 40% on the way up for their troubles. A C-suite role — it turns out — makes people excellent at trading stocks of their companies. And Elon Musk has routinely (and gleefully) profited from his position.</p><h2>Sale Vs. Loan: Musk Now a TSLA Stock Bear</h2><p>That’s why Mr. Musk’s latest share sales should concern even the most rabid Tesla fan. Sales in 2021 and 2022 typically preceded bad news about Chinese demand… or release date delays… or becoming a CEO of a giant social media firm. He hasn’t been wrong before.</p><p>In October, he warned by tweet that a recession could continue “until the spring of ’24.” Sales in China — which accounts for 50% of revenue — are noticeably slowing down. And as I wrote in my 2021 note (which is still true today), Tesla’s high valuation “means its earnings potential will take years to catch up to its share price.”</p><p>As 2023 approaches, the car firm is still worth almost $500 billion, 10 times greater than <b>Ford</b> (NYSE:<b><u>F</u></b>). And even if it <i>does </i>meet its aggressive cash flow targets for 2023, shares are still priced at over 30X that figure.</p><p>The matter is made worse because Mr. Musk had a choice <i>not</i> to sell shares. Tesla’s proxy rules allow him to pledge shares of his company as collateral for loans, allowing him to raise cash without liquidating a single shred of equity. Closed-door negotiations also suggest that Morgan Stanley offered to provide margin loans for Mr. Musk.</p><p>He decided to sell anyway.</p><p>Of course, both Mr. Musk and I could be wrong about taking profits on Tesla shares today. Demand for electric vehicles is only going up, and Tesla remains a favored brand among the high-end players. And no person — not even Mr. Musk — can beat the market every time.</p><p>But for those who like betting “odds on,” consider Mr. Musk’s massive share sales a warning that it’s time to take profits on TSLA stock.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk Is a Genius Market Timer. That’s Bad News for Tesla Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk Is a Genius Market Timer. That’s Bad News for Tesla Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-20 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/12/elon-musk-is-a-genius-market-timer-thats-bad-news-for-tesla-tsla-stock/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last Wednesday, we finally got the announcement:Elon Musk had sold another $3.6 billion of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock earlier in the week. (SEC filings tend to lag several days behind transactions)....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/12/elon-musk-is-a-genius-market-timer-thats-bad-news-for-tesla-tsla-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/12/elon-musk-is-a-genius-market-timer-thats-bad-news-for-tesla-tsla-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2292487749","content_text":"Last Wednesday, we finally got the announcement:Elon Musk had sold another $3.6 billion of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock earlier in the week. (SEC filings tend to lag several days behind transactions).Such a sale had been months in the making. Not only did Mr. Musk likely overpay for his Twitter acquisition. A series of unforced errors has turned the social media company into a cash-burning furnace. The world’s formerly richest person has now sold $22.6 billion Tesla stock since April… And still has around $3.1 billion in miscellaneous liabilities, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Let that sink in. Yet, the big headlines also obscure a non-laughing matter: Mr. Musk chose to sell his Tesla shares outright rather than use them as loan collateral as Morgan Stanley allegedly floated.And that’s a big difference.If past is prologue, Elon Musk is signaling to get out of TSLA stock now.The Genius of Market TimingCEOs and other executives routinely trade shares of their own companies. It’s a strategy that typically leads to a 15% outperformance and is the basis of my Insider Track strategy. $200,000 invested at that rate would be worth almost $15 million only 20 years later. Plenty to retire on, and enough to buy a cheap social media site of your own.The strategy is also entirely legal for the executives and those who mirror their trades. As long as executives 1) avoid trading during “blackout” periods immediately preceding earnings releases and 2) report their transactions to the SEC in a timely manner, they can use their personal knowledge of the business to profit as they please. Investors like you and me can use these SEC filings to mimic these gains with surprisingly little slippage.Some individuals take these SEC-granted freedoms to extremes. A 2021 report by the Wall Street Journal found dozens of federal judges who traded stocks of litigants during cases. One such judge bought thousands of dollars of Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) while overseeing a lawsuit involving a potentially defective Medtronic graft implanted into a 12-year-old boy. The case was dismissed, and shares of the medical device firm rose by double digits.Others simply follow along. I’ve also used the strategy to identify big winners like Longeveron (NASDAQ:LGVN) — a company that returned almost 1,000% in three months on a “surprise” FDA authorization. Some gold miners have also done quite well after “discovering” new veins after insider purchasing.And that brings us to Elon Musk, a genius stock market timer.How to Earn Millions Without Really TryingIn 2017, Elon Musk began scooping up large chunks of Tesla’s beaten-down shares. The electric vehicle maker was on track to lose $2.2 billion that year and liquidity was becoming a concern.Within three months of his $35 million purchase (these were the old days before he was worth hundreds of billions), Mr. Musk would announce that he had reached a blockbuster deal to refinance his firm. Tesla would raise $1.8 billion in bonds, and rising shares would award Mr. Musk a windfall profit.Tesla’s CEO would use a similar strategy in 2018 after buying $25 million more in shares… and then announcing plans to take the company private. Another series of well-timed buys in May 2019 and February 2020 would rise between 206% and 235%. These were some of the most profitable trades tracked by TipRanks.In late 2021, however, Mr. Musk’s tack began to change. Rather than buy stock, he began to sell.And he sold a great deal.At that point, I had already turned bearish about Tesla eleven months earlier. “It’s time to take profits on Tesla,” I wrote in January of that year. “Bullish dreamers have turned Tesla stock into an outright fantasy.”Mr. Musk’s timing was even better than mine. Had investors waited until November to sell, they would have earned an extra 40% on the way up for their troubles. A C-suite role — it turns out — makes people excellent at trading stocks of their companies. And Elon Musk has routinely (and gleefully) profited from his position.Sale Vs. Loan: Musk Now a TSLA Stock BearThat’s why Mr. Musk’s latest share sales should concern even the most rabid Tesla fan. Sales in 2021 and 2022 typically preceded bad news about Chinese demand… or release date delays… or becoming a CEO of a giant social media firm. He hasn’t been wrong before.In October, he warned by tweet that a recession could continue “until the spring of ’24.” Sales in China — which accounts for 50% of revenue — are noticeably slowing down. And as I wrote in my 2021 note (which is still true today), Tesla’s high valuation “means its earnings potential will take years to catch up to its share price.”As 2023 approaches, the car firm is still worth almost $500 billion, 10 times greater than Ford (NYSE:F). And even if it does meet its aggressive cash flow targets for 2023, shares are still priced at over 30X that figure.The matter is made worse because Mr. Musk had a choice not to sell shares. Tesla’s proxy rules allow him to pledge shares of his company as collateral for loans, allowing him to raise cash without liquidating a single shred of equity. Closed-door negotiations also suggest that Morgan Stanley offered to provide margin loans for Mr. Musk.He decided to sell anyway.Of course, both Mr. Musk and I could be wrong about taking profits on Tesla shares today. Demand for electric vehicles is only going up, and Tesla remains a favored brand among the high-end players. And no person — not even Mr. Musk — can beat the market every time.But for those who like betting “odds on,” consider Mr. Musk’s massive share sales a warning that it’s time to take profits on TSLA stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926987711,"gmtCreate":1671447760233,"gmtModify":1676538537813,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926987711","repostId":"1115578177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928495069,"gmtCreate":1671335581551,"gmtModify":1676538525901,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928495069","repostId":"2291076952","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2291076952","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671260506,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2291076952?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-17 15:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: Amazon vs. Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291076952","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Both of these stocks have excellent long-term outlooks, but one is unquestionably the better buy.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A stock market sell-off in 2022 has tanked the share prices of some of the world&#39;s most valuable companies, creating an excellent time to invest in growth stocks like <b>Amazon</b> (AMZN) and <b>Apple</b> (AAPL). These companies are known as leaders of their respective industries, yet have watched their stocks suffer double-digit declines over the past year.</p><p>Regardless, Amazon and Apple continue to have great long-term outlooks, making both of their stocks worth an investment. However, if you&#39;re only looking to add one stock to your portfolio, you might wonder which is the better buy. So, let&#39;s assess.</p><h2>1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a></h2><p>Amazon has come a long way since starting out as an online book retailer in 1994, expanding into several lucrative industries. The company&#39;s stock has plummeted 46% since January amid macroeconomic headwinds. However, its diverse business has continued to see revenue growth in 2022, a promising sign for its future.</p><p>In the third quarter of 2022, Amazon&#39;s revenue rose 14.7% year over year to $127.1 billion, with operating income coming in at $2.5 billion.</p><p>In its e-commerce business, the company&#39;s North American segment increased by 20% to $78.8 billion, and its international revenue decreased by 5% to $27.7 billion. However, its earnings abroad primarily suffered from changes in foreign exchange rates, resulting in a strong dollar. Thus, Amazon&#39;s international revenue rose 12%, excluding exchange fluctuations.</p><p>The bright spot of Amazon&#39;s year amid an economic downturn has, no doubt, been its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services (AWS). The platform&#39;s segment made up 100% of the company&#39;s operating income in Q3 2022, with revenue increasing 27% year over year to $20.5 billion.</p><p>While a potential recession in 2023 could lead to further declines in its e-commerce business, AWS&#39;s continued growth over the last year proves it will likely continue flourishing no matter the economic climate and prop the company up through a possibly challenging year.</p><p>However, according to the Federal Reserve, consumer spending has risen for the last three quarters. If this continues on its current trajectory, Amazon could see a return to operating income in its e-commerce business next year, along with continued growth in AWS.</p><h2>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></h2><p>Despite falling 21% year to date, Apple stock has risen 228% over the last five years, making it one of the best growth companies out there. By comparison, Amazon&#39;s stock has increased by 55% in five years.</p><p>In a year plagued by tech industry declines, Apple has reported strong sales for its products. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the company&#39;s iPhone revenue increased by 9.6% to $42.6 billion despite worldwide smartphone shipments decreasing by 9.7%, according to IDC.</p><p>Similarly, the company&#39;s Mac segment reported growth of 25.3% year over year, hitting $11.5 billion, while worldwide PC shipments fell 15%.</p><p>Apple has attracted investor concern over the last month because of its dependence on China for iPhone production as the smartphones made up 52% of the company&#39;s revenue in its fiscal 2022. COVID-19 restrictions in the country have strained production and motivated Apple to begin diversifying its iPhone manufacturing.</p><p>The company is now making a portion of its iPhone 14s in India, with <b>JP Morgan Chase </b>estimating that about 25% of all Apple&#39;s products will be produced there by 2025. It could take years for Apple to move out of China completely; however, that doesn&#39;t dampen its long-term prospects.</p><p>In addition to diversifying its product manufacturing, the company has a swiftly growing services business that could alleviate pressure from its iPhone segment. As Apple&#39;s second-biggest segment in its fiscal 2022, services revenue rose 14% year over year to $78.1 billion. By contrast, iPhone revenue increased by 7% during the year.</p><p>Regarding key metrics for Amazon and Apple, Amazon&#39;s price-to-earnings ratio is at 84, rising 27% in the last year. Meanwhile, Apple&#39;s is about 23 after declining 24% since last December.</p><p>In terms of free cash flow, Amazon&#39;s stood at a negative 26.3 billion as of Sept. 30, while Apple&#39;s came in at $111.44 billion.</p><p>Amazon continues to have an excellent outlook over the long term. However, Apple has fared far better in 2022, and the stock currently offers more value. Additionally, the company&#39;s ability to keep up stellar demand for its products in a poor economic climate makes its stock undoubtedly a more reliable and better buy.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: Amazon vs. Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: Amazon vs. Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-17 15:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/16/better-buy-amazon-vs-apple/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A stock market sell-off in 2022 has tanked the share prices of some of the world's most valuable companies, creating an excellent time to invest in growth stocks like Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL). ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/16/better-buy-amazon-vs-apple/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/16/better-buy-amazon-vs-apple/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291076952","content_text":"A stock market sell-off in 2022 has tanked the share prices of some of the world's most valuable companies, creating an excellent time to invest in growth stocks like Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL). These companies are known as leaders of their respective industries, yet have watched their stocks suffer double-digit declines over the past year.Regardless, Amazon and Apple continue to have great long-term outlooks, making both of their stocks worth an investment. However, if you're only looking to add one stock to your portfolio, you might wonder which is the better buy. So, let's assess.1. AmazonAmazon has come a long way since starting out as an online book retailer in 1994, expanding into several lucrative industries. The company's stock has plummeted 46% since January amid macroeconomic headwinds. However, its diverse business has continued to see revenue growth in 2022, a promising sign for its future.In the third quarter of 2022, Amazon's revenue rose 14.7% year over year to $127.1 billion, with operating income coming in at $2.5 billion.In its e-commerce business, the company's North American segment increased by 20% to $78.8 billion, and its international revenue decreased by 5% to $27.7 billion. However, its earnings abroad primarily suffered from changes in foreign exchange rates, resulting in a strong dollar. Thus, Amazon's international revenue rose 12%, excluding exchange fluctuations.The bright spot of Amazon's year amid an economic downturn has, no doubt, been its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services (AWS). The platform's segment made up 100% of the company's operating income in Q3 2022, with revenue increasing 27% year over year to $20.5 billion.While a potential recession in 2023 could lead to further declines in its e-commerce business, AWS's continued growth over the last year proves it will likely continue flourishing no matter the economic climate and prop the company up through a possibly challenging year.However, according to the Federal Reserve, consumer spending has risen for the last three quarters. If this continues on its current trajectory, Amazon could see a return to operating income in its e-commerce business next year, along with continued growth in AWS.2. AppleDespite falling 21% year to date, Apple stock has risen 228% over the last five years, making it one of the best growth companies out there. By comparison, Amazon's stock has increased by 55% in five years.In a year plagued by tech industry declines, Apple has reported strong sales for its products. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the company's iPhone revenue increased by 9.6% to $42.6 billion despite worldwide smartphone shipments decreasing by 9.7%, according to IDC.Similarly, the company's Mac segment reported growth of 25.3% year over year, hitting $11.5 billion, while worldwide PC shipments fell 15%.Apple has attracted investor concern over the last month because of its dependence on China for iPhone production as the smartphones made up 52% of the company's revenue in its fiscal 2022. COVID-19 restrictions in the country have strained production and motivated Apple to begin diversifying its iPhone manufacturing.The company is now making a portion of its iPhone 14s in India, with JP Morgan Chase estimating that about 25% of all Apple's products will be produced there by 2025. It could take years for Apple to move out of China completely; however, that doesn't dampen its long-term prospects.In addition to diversifying its product manufacturing, the company has a swiftly growing services business that could alleviate pressure from its iPhone segment. As Apple's second-biggest segment in its fiscal 2022, services revenue rose 14% year over year to $78.1 billion. By contrast, iPhone revenue increased by 7% during the year.Regarding key metrics for Amazon and Apple, Amazon's price-to-earnings ratio is at 84, rising 27% in the last year. Meanwhile, Apple's is about 23 after declining 24% since last December.In terms of free cash flow, Amazon's stood at a negative 26.3 billion as of Sept. 30, while Apple's came in at $111.44 billion.Amazon continues to have an excellent outlook over the long term. However, Apple has fared far better in 2022, and the stock currently offers more value. Additionally, the company's ability to keep up stellar demand for its products in a poor economic climate makes its stock undoubtedly a more reliable and better buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":81,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928924349,"gmtCreate":1671173880482,"gmtModify":1676538503765,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Of course not","listText":"Of course not","text":"Of course not","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928924349","repostId":"2291062160","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2291062160","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671172741,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2291062160?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-16 14:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bed Bath & Beyond Is Down 88% From Its High. Time to Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291062160","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Shares of the home goods retailer have been in a tailspin as the struggling company seeks to find equilibrium.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street, while hardly perfect, is almost always looking forward when it assigns a value to a stock. When a company like <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b> sees a material stock price decline, it is usually because investors are worried that things are bad and likely to get worse.</p><p>In that way, the market is discounting the risk by lowering the share price. And yet, after a huge drop, there&#39;s still material risk at this home goods retailer you shouldn&#39;t ignore.</p><h2>Massive pain</h2><p>Putting some numbers on just how negative investors are about Bed Bath &amp; Beyond is enlightening. Year to date in 2022, the stock is off by roughly 78%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/426b075acad0153a0897f250b0577cb2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p>That said, the retailer has managed to get caught up in the meme stock frenzy, so its shares have been pretty volatile. Tracking the decline from the highest price point of 2022 leads to a price decline of 88%. From the highest point over the past three years, meanwhile, the stock is down a whopping 94%. Those are very ugly numbers.</p><p>The unfortunate part of the story is that Bed Bath &amp; Beyond&#39;s financial results justify a deeply negative mood. Looking at the income statement, revenue has declined since fiscal 2018, two years before the coronavirus pandemic led to non-essential business shutdowns in 2020.</p><p>And while one might have expected a generous revenue bounce back after those shutdowns, that hasn&#39;t materialized. In fact, same-store sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2022 fell a massive 26% year over year.</p><p>On the bottom line, the company has been bleeding red ink (losing money) since fiscal 2019. The losses have been fairly material as well, on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, noting that the fiscal second-quarter 2022 loss was a troubling $4.59 per share. The company is clearly struggling.</p><h2>Can this be fixed?</h2><p>Any investor who buys Bed Bath &amp; Beyond today is hoping that the company can be turned around. And, to be fair, some of the bad news above is directly related to turnaround efforts. For example, management has been closing underperforming stores, which reduced revenues. However, there are still very material headwinds investors need to consider.</p><p>For example, because of write-offs and weak financial results, shareholder equity (or the accumulated profits of the company that haven&#39;t been paid out as dividends) has turned negative. That&#39;s not just a testament to the poor performance, but it also suggests that there will be nothing left over for shareholders in a bankruptcy situation. Even a low stock price doesn&#39;t solve for that risk.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b53768effaf85f048cd683c8dd89a3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>BBBY Shareholders Equity (Quarterly) data by YCharts</span></p><p>The company&#39;s leverage, meanwhile, is elevated. Although one way to view the issue would be to look at the total debt load, a more telling issue right now is that Bed Bath &amp; Beyond isn&#39;t covering its trailing-12-month interest expenses. Companies that can&#39;t support their debts often end up seeking out bankruptcy court protections.</p><p>Management is aware of the problem, noting that it recently sold stock at the current, deeply depressed stock price, so it could retire some debt and reduce leverage. That&#39;s something that a company only does when things are terrible, because share issuances like this are massively dilutive to current shareholders. And, in the end, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond is really just buying itself more time to deal with the rest of the more than $1 billion in debt on its balance sheet.</p><p>In other words, the leverage problem hasn&#39;t been solved. It&#39;s just been kicked down the road a little.</p><p>Then there are the operational issues. The company has seen management turnover in its top ranks. It has been having a hard time getting products in its stores thanks to supply chain disruptions. It hasn&#39;t made good merchandising decisions, filling the store with products consumers didn&#39;t want. And it is dealing with dissident investors who want it to spin off or sell its best assets (the Buy Buy Baby nameplate) in order to save itself.</p><p>None of these issues are good, and all suggest that there is a lot more work to be done.</p><h2>Too much risk</h2><p>Sometimes, Wall Street pessimism gets the story wrong, but the dour mood today around Bed Bath &amp; Beyond seems totally justified. And, worse, despite a massive stock price decline, there doesn&#39;t yet seem to be any silver lining in the well-formed clouds here. This is a high-risk turnaround play that only the most aggressive investors should be looking at (accepting that the end result could be a total loss of the cash invested).</p><p>That&#39;s not meant to suggest that management can&#39;t fix the company, but that likelihood seems very slim right now given all the problems and headwinds here.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bed Bath & Beyond Is Down 88% From Its High. Time to Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBed Bath & Beyond Is Down 88% From Its High. Time to Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-16 14:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/15/bed-bath-beyond-is-down-88-from-high-time-to-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wall Street, while hardly perfect, is almost always looking forward when it assigns a value to a stock. When a company like Bed Bath & Beyond sees a material stock price decline, it is usually because...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/15/bed-bath-beyond-is-down-88-from-high-time-to-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"3B家居","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4178":"家庭装饰零售"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/15/bed-bath-beyond-is-down-88-from-high-time-to-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291062160","content_text":"Wall Street, while hardly perfect, is almost always looking forward when it assigns a value to a stock. When a company like Bed Bath & Beyond sees a material stock price decline, it is usually because investors are worried that things are bad and likely to get worse.In that way, the market is discounting the risk by lowering the share price. And yet, after a huge drop, there's still material risk at this home goods retailer you shouldn't ignore.Massive painPutting some numbers on just how negative investors are about Bed Bath & Beyond is enlightening. Year to date in 2022, the stock is off by roughly 78%.Image source: Getty Images.That said, the retailer has managed to get caught up in the meme stock frenzy, so its shares have been pretty volatile. Tracking the decline from the highest price point of 2022 leads to a price decline of 88%. From the highest point over the past three years, meanwhile, the stock is down a whopping 94%. Those are very ugly numbers.The unfortunate part of the story is that Bed Bath & Beyond's financial results justify a deeply negative mood. Looking at the income statement, revenue has declined since fiscal 2018, two years before the coronavirus pandemic led to non-essential business shutdowns in 2020.And while one might have expected a generous revenue bounce back after those shutdowns, that hasn't materialized. In fact, same-store sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2022 fell a massive 26% year over year.On the bottom line, the company has been bleeding red ink (losing money) since fiscal 2019. The losses have been fairly material as well, on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, noting that the fiscal second-quarter 2022 loss was a troubling $4.59 per share. The company is clearly struggling.Can this be fixed?Any investor who buys Bed Bath & Beyond today is hoping that the company can be turned around. And, to be fair, some of the bad news above is directly related to turnaround efforts. For example, management has been closing underperforming stores, which reduced revenues. However, there are still very material headwinds investors need to consider.For example, because of write-offs and weak financial results, shareholder equity (or the accumulated profits of the company that haven't been paid out as dividends) has turned negative. That's not just a testament to the poor performance, but it also suggests that there will be nothing left over for shareholders in a bankruptcy situation. Even a low stock price doesn't solve for that risk.BBBY Shareholders Equity (Quarterly) data by YChartsThe company's leverage, meanwhile, is elevated. Although one way to view the issue would be to look at the total debt load, a more telling issue right now is that Bed Bath & Beyond isn't covering its trailing-12-month interest expenses. Companies that can't support their debts often end up seeking out bankruptcy court protections.Management is aware of the problem, noting that it recently sold stock at the current, deeply depressed stock price, so it could retire some debt and reduce leverage. That's something that a company only does when things are terrible, because share issuances like this are massively dilutive to current shareholders. And, in the end, Bed Bath & Beyond is really just buying itself more time to deal with the rest of the more than $1 billion in debt on its balance sheet.In other words, the leverage problem hasn't been solved. It's just been kicked down the road a little.Then there are the operational issues. The company has seen management turnover in its top ranks. It has been having a hard time getting products in its stores thanks to supply chain disruptions. It hasn't made good merchandising decisions, filling the store with products consumers didn't want. And it is dealing with dissident investors who want it to spin off or sell its best assets (the Buy Buy Baby nameplate) in order to save itself.None of these issues are good, and all suggest that there is a lot more work to be done.Too much riskSometimes, Wall Street pessimism gets the story wrong, but the dour mood today around Bed Bath & Beyond seems totally justified. And, worse, despite a massive stock price decline, there doesn't yet seem to be any silver lining in the well-formed clouds here. This is a high-risk turnaround play that only the most aggressive investors should be looking at (accepting that the end result could be a total loss of the cash invested).That's not meant to suggest that management can't fix the company, but that likelihood seems very slim right now given all the problems and headwinds here.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921455587,"gmtCreate":1671117496249,"gmtModify":1676538493480,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921455587","repostId":"1146324193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146324193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671116487,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146324193?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-15 23:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roblox Plunges 14% As Strong U.S. Dollar Hits November's Bookings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146324193","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) shares dropped by more than 14% in morning trading Thursday as investors reacted ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56599f2b3fb43bf34e2bfbdb1da46445\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) shares dropped by more than 14% in morning trading Thursday as investors reacted to the gaming platform company&#39;s November business update, which showed a negative impact from the effects of a strong U.S. dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9dffb1f8681d6959b813faf6cadb00\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"833\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Roblox (RBLX) said estimated that bookings, a key measure of the company&#39;s health, finished in a range of $222M to $225M, which was up between 5% and 7% from November 2021. The company said that the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies such as the British pound and the euro &#34;had an adverse impact on bookings&#34; and cut bookings growth between 4% and 5% from a year ago.</p><p>While bookings on the whole did rise on a year-over-year basis, Roblox (RBLX) said it average bookings per daily user were between $3.92 and $3.97, which was down 7% to 9% from a year ago. At the same time, daily active users rose 15% from November 2021, to 56.7M users.</p><p>Total revenue rose between 1% and 3% from a year ago, to a range of $190M to $193M.</p><p>Roblox&#39;s (RBLX) November update came after recent reports said the company poached longtime Apple (AAPL) executive John Stauffer to be the company&#39;snew vice president of engineering.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox Plunges 14% As Strong U.S. Dollar Hits November's Bookings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox Plunges 14% As Strong U.S. Dollar Hits November's Bookings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-15 23:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3917580-roblox-plunges-10-as-strong-us-dollar-hits-novembers-bookings><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) shares dropped by more than 14% in morning trading Thursday as investors reacted to the gaming platform company's November business update, which showed a negative impact from the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3917580-roblox-plunges-10-as-strong-us-dollar-hits-novembers-bookings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3917580-roblox-plunges-10-as-strong-us-dollar-hits-novembers-bookings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146324193","content_text":"Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) shares dropped by more than 14% in morning trading Thursday as investors reacted to the gaming platform company's November business update, which showed a negative impact from the effects of a strong U.S. dollar.Roblox (RBLX) said estimated that bookings, a key measure of the company's health, finished in a range of $222M to $225M, which was up between 5% and 7% from November 2021. The company said that the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies such as the British pound and the euro \"had an adverse impact on bookings\" and cut bookings growth between 4% and 5% from a year ago.While bookings on the whole did rise on a year-over-year basis, Roblox (RBLX) said it average bookings per daily user were between $3.92 and $3.97, which was down 7% to 9% from a year ago. At the same time, daily active users rose 15% from November 2021, to 56.7M users.Total revenue rose between 1% and 3% from a year ago, to a range of $190M to $193M.Roblox's (RBLX) November update came after recent reports said the company poached longtime Apple (AAPL) executive John Stauffer to be the company'snew vice president of engineering.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9045270363,"gmtCreate":1656632527952,"gmtModify":1676535865904,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YYY.SI\">$Lion-OSPL China L S$(YYY.SI)$</a>nnice","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YYY.SI\">$Lion-OSPL China L S$(YYY.SI)$</a>nnice","text":"$Lion-OSPL China L S$(YYY.SI)$nnice","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/72492a32b0fbcebc065d5a6003bf6063","width":"1080","height":"3188"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045270363","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073252670,"gmtCreate":1657357545091,"gmtModify":1676535997299,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YYY.SI\">$Lion-OSPL China L S$(YYY.SI)$</a>lol","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YYY.SI\">$Lion-OSPL China L S$(YYY.SI)$</a>lol","text":"$Lion-OSPL China L S$(YYY.SI)$lol","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d1ee1b8d3d019750b5a3d6b704998265","width":"1080","height":"3188"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073252670","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029659717,"gmtCreate":1652774517039,"gmtModify":1676535159128,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YYY.SI\">$Lion-OSPL China L S$(YYY.SI)$</a>ttime to go back up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YYY.SI\">$Lion-OSPL China L S$(YYY.SI)$</a>ttime to go back up","text":"$Lion-OSPL China L S$(YYY.SI)$ttime to go back up","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9da991d03faf6bb9ddb8ea0ca5ec4e95","width":"1080","height":"3188"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029659717","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923043969,"gmtCreate":1670765145052,"gmtModify":1676538429683,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CSPX.UK\">$ISHRS CORE S&amp;P 500 UCITS ETF USD (ACC)(CSPX.UK)$ &nbsp;</a>","listText":"Good&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CSPX.UK\">$ISHRS CORE S&amp;P 500 UCITS ETF USD (ACC)(CSPX.UK)$ &nbsp;</a>","text":"Good $ISHRS CORE S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (ACC)(CSPX.UK)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923043969","repostId":"2290213223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2290213223","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670723606,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2290213223?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-11 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a \"Santa Claus\" Rally This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290213223","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economistU.S. stocks tend to rally in the final ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economist</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a959345916d49ecfb90abc84cc5b97\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>U.S. stocks tend to rally in the final week of December, and carry the upswing into early January. But a holiday bounce this year likely hinges on next week’s Federal Reserve rate decision and fresh inflation data.</span></p><p>Investors, like kids on Christmas Eve, have come to expect Santa Claus will get down the chimney, march over to Wall Street and deliver the rewarding gift of a stock-market rally.</p><p>This year, however, investors might be better off betting on a lump of coal, rather than waiting for tangible stock-market gains to emerge in this holiday season, market analysts said.</p><p>“The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year as the equity market navigates higher yields and contracting earnings,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. “Seasonal tailwinds that have traditionally driven Santa Claus rallies pale in comparison to the plethora of headwinds the equity market currently faces.”</p><p>U.S. stock indexes tumbled this week, with the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both booking their sharpest weekly declines in nearly three months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The drop occurred as stronger-than-expected economic data added to concerns that the Federal Reserve might need to be more aggressive in its inflation battle than earlier anticipated, even with alarms flashing about a potential economic recession.</p><p>Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street almost every year, bringing a short rally in the last five trading days of December, and the first two days of January. Since 1969, the Santa Rally has boosted the S&amp;P 500 by an average of 1.3%, according to data from Stock Trader’s Almanac.</p><p>“December is the seasonally strongest month of the year, particularly in a midterm election year. So, December has been positive most of the time,” said David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. “It would actually be very unusual for stocks to sell off dramatically in December.”</p><p><b>Will Wall Street get a Santa Claus Rally?</b></p><p>A rotten year for financial assets has begun drawing to a close under a cloud of uncertainty. Given the Federal Reserve’s tough stance on bringing inflation down to its 2% target and already volatile financial markets, many analysts think investors shouldn’t focus too much on whether Santa Claus ends up being naughty or nice.</p><p>“Next week is going to be a huge week for the markets as they attempt to find some footing heading into year end,” said Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth, in emailed comments Friday.</p><p>That makes the Fed’s rate decisions next week and fresh inflation data even more crucial to equity markets. Friday’s wholesale prices rose more than expected in November, dampening hopes that inflation might be cooling off. The core producer-price index, which excludes volatile food, energy and trade prices, also rose 0.3% in November, up from a 0.2% gain in the prior month, the Labor Department said.</p><p>The corresponding November consumer-price index report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, will further show if inflation is subsiding.The CPI increased 0.4% in October and 7.7% from a year ago. The core reading increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis.</p><p>“If the CPI print comes in at 5% on core, then you’d get a real selloff in bonds and in equities. If inflation is still running hotter and you have a recession, can the Fed cut rates? Maybe not. Then you start getting into the stagflation scenarios,” said Ron Temple, head of U.S. equities at Lazard Asset Management.</p><p>Traders are pricing in a 77% probability that the Fed will raise its policy interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% next Wednesday, the last day of its Dec. 13-14 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.That would be a slower pace than its four consecutive 0.75 point rate hikes since June.</p><p>John Porter, chief investment officer and head of equity at Newton Investment Management, expects no surprises next week in terms of how much the Fed will raise interest rates. He does, however, anticipate stock-market investors will closely watch Fed Chair Powell’s press conference for insights into the decision and “hang on every single word.”</p><p>“Investors are contorting themselves almost into a pretzel and trying to over-interpret the language,” Porter told MarketWatch via phone. “Listen to what they say, not listen to what you want them to say. They [Fed officials] are going to continue to be vigilant, and they have to watch inflation.”</p><p><b>Does the ‘Santa’ rally really exist?</b></p><p>For years, market analysts have examined potential reasons for the typical seasonal Santa Claus pattern. But with this year still awash in red, some think a rally in late December could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, simply because investors might search for any reason to be slightly merry.</p><p>“If everyone’s focused on the positive seasonals, it could become more of this narrative that drives things rather than anything more fundamental,” David Lefkowitz, head of equities Americas of UBS Global Wealth Management, told MarketWatch via phone.</p><p>“Markets tend to like the holly-jolly spending season so much, so there’s a name for the rally that tends to happen at the end of the year,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “For what it’s worth, I think ‘Santa Claus Rally’ holds as much predictive power as ‘Sell in May and Walk Away,’ which is minimal and coincidental at best.”</p><p><b>Relief rally’s big tests</b></p><p>While the three main U.S. stock indexes booked sharply weekly losses, equities have rallied off the October lows. The S&amp;P 500 has rallied 9.9% from its October low through Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.90%gained 16.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 6.6%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>However, many top Wall Street analysts also see reasons for alarm, specifically that the stock market’s bounce off the recent lows is likely running out of room.</p><p>So, are investors ignoring warnings? Despite talk of the seeming inevitability of a year-end rally, several recent rally attempts failed, while Wall Street’s CBOE Volatility Index, or “fear gauge,” was at 22.86 at Friday’s close. A drop below 20 on the VIX can signify that investor fears about potential market ructions are easing.</p><p>U.S. stock indexes closed down on Friday with the S&amp;P 500 losing 0.7%. The Dow dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq shed 0.7%. Three major indexes booked a week of sizable losses with the S&amp;P 500 posting a weekly decline of 3.4%. The Dow declined by 2.8% and the Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 4% this week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>Next week, not long after the CPI and the Fed decision, investors will also receive November retail sales data and industrial production index on Thursday, followed by the S&amp;P Global’s flash PMI readings on Friday.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a \"Santa Claus\" Rally This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a \"Santa Claus\" Rally This Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-11 09:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-shouldnt-count-on-a-santa-claus-rally-this-year-11670628375?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economistU.S. stocks tend to rally in the final week of December, and carry the upswing into early January. But a holiday bounce this year likely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-shouldnt-count-on-a-santa-claus-rally-this-year-11670628375?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-shouldnt-count-on-a-santa-claus-rally-this-year-11670628375?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290213223","content_text":"‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economistU.S. stocks tend to rally in the final week of December, and carry the upswing into early January. But a holiday bounce this year likely hinges on next week’s Federal Reserve rate decision and fresh inflation data.Investors, like kids on Christmas Eve, have come to expect Santa Claus will get down the chimney, march over to Wall Street and deliver the rewarding gift of a stock-market rally.This year, however, investors might be better off betting on a lump of coal, rather than waiting for tangible stock-market gains to emerge in this holiday season, market analysts said.“The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year as the equity market navigates higher yields and contracting earnings,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. “Seasonal tailwinds that have traditionally driven Santa Claus rallies pale in comparison to the plethora of headwinds the equity market currently faces.”U.S. stock indexes tumbled this week, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both booking their sharpest weekly declines in nearly three months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The drop occurred as stronger-than-expected economic data added to concerns that the Federal Reserve might need to be more aggressive in its inflation battle than earlier anticipated, even with alarms flashing about a potential economic recession.Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street almost every year, bringing a short rally in the last five trading days of December, and the first two days of January. Since 1969, the Santa Rally has boosted the S&P 500 by an average of 1.3%, according to data from Stock Trader’s Almanac.“December is the seasonally strongest month of the year, particularly in a midterm election year. So, December has been positive most of the time,” said David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. “It would actually be very unusual for stocks to sell off dramatically in December.”Will Wall Street get a Santa Claus Rally?A rotten year for financial assets has begun drawing to a close under a cloud of uncertainty. Given the Federal Reserve’s tough stance on bringing inflation down to its 2% target and already volatile financial markets, many analysts think investors shouldn’t focus too much on whether Santa Claus ends up being naughty or nice.“Next week is going to be a huge week for the markets as they attempt to find some footing heading into year end,” said Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth, in emailed comments Friday.That makes the Fed’s rate decisions next week and fresh inflation data even more crucial to equity markets. Friday’s wholesale prices rose more than expected in November, dampening hopes that inflation might be cooling off. The core producer-price index, which excludes volatile food, energy and trade prices, also rose 0.3% in November, up from a 0.2% gain in the prior month, the Labor Department said.The corresponding November consumer-price index report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, will further show if inflation is subsiding.The CPI increased 0.4% in October and 7.7% from a year ago. The core reading increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis.“If the CPI print comes in at 5% on core, then you’d get a real selloff in bonds and in equities. If inflation is still running hotter and you have a recession, can the Fed cut rates? Maybe not. Then you start getting into the stagflation scenarios,” said Ron Temple, head of U.S. equities at Lazard Asset Management.Traders are pricing in a 77% probability that the Fed will raise its policy interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% next Wednesday, the last day of its Dec. 13-14 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.That would be a slower pace than its four consecutive 0.75 point rate hikes since June.John Porter, chief investment officer and head of equity at Newton Investment Management, expects no surprises next week in terms of how much the Fed will raise interest rates. He does, however, anticipate stock-market investors will closely watch Fed Chair Powell’s press conference for insights into the decision and “hang on every single word.”“Investors are contorting themselves almost into a pretzel and trying to over-interpret the language,” Porter told MarketWatch via phone. “Listen to what they say, not listen to what you want them to say. They [Fed officials] are going to continue to be vigilant, and they have to watch inflation.”Does the ‘Santa’ rally really exist?For years, market analysts have examined potential reasons for the typical seasonal Santa Claus pattern. But with this year still awash in red, some think a rally in late December could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, simply because investors might search for any reason to be slightly merry.“If everyone’s focused on the positive seasonals, it could become more of this narrative that drives things rather than anything more fundamental,” David Lefkowitz, head of equities Americas of UBS Global Wealth Management, told MarketWatch via phone.“Markets tend to like the holly-jolly spending season so much, so there’s a name for the rally that tends to happen at the end of the year,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “For what it’s worth, I think ‘Santa Claus Rally’ holds as much predictive power as ‘Sell in May and Walk Away,’ which is minimal and coincidental at best.”Relief rally’s big testsWhile the three main U.S. stock indexes booked sharply weekly losses, equities have rallied off the October lows. The S&P 500 has rallied 9.9% from its October low through Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.90%gained 16.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 6.6%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.However, many top Wall Street analysts also see reasons for alarm, specifically that the stock market’s bounce off the recent lows is likely running out of room.So, are investors ignoring warnings? Despite talk of the seeming inevitability of a year-end rally, several recent rally attempts failed, while Wall Street’s CBOE Volatility Index, or “fear gauge,” was at 22.86 at Friday’s close. A drop below 20 on the VIX can signify that investor fears about potential market ructions are easing.U.S. stock indexes closed down on Friday with the S&P 500 losing 0.7%. The Dow dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq shed 0.7%. Three major indexes booked a week of sizable losses with the S&P 500 posting a weekly decline of 3.4%. The Dow declined by 2.8% and the Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 4% this week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Next week, not long after the CPI and the Fed decision, investors will also receive November retail sales data and industrial production index on Thursday, followed by the S&P Global’s flash PMI readings on Friday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040953120,"gmtCreate":1655603993260,"gmtModify":1676535669153,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>uups","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>uups","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$uups","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2089e8d1edc1a343074f511f1a6592d3","width":"1080","height":"3279"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9040953120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953013337,"gmtCreate":1673101068929,"gmtModify":1676538786717,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953013337","repostId":"2301620946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2301620946","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673051740,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2301620946?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-07 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Now the Time to Go All-In on Tesla Stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2301620946","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla stock has never been this inexpensive, but there are some good reasons for that.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>KEY POINTS</h2><ul><li>If you think Tesla is just a consumer EV play, then it&#39;s not a compelling buy.</li><li>But if you think Tesla will become a major player in the commercial trucking industry and be a leader in autonomous technology, then it&#39;s a great time to buy.</li><li>Tesla could fail to meet its lofty goals over the next couple of years.</li></ul><p><b>Tesla</b> stock had a rough first day of the 2023 trading calendar year, falling 12.2%. But shares were down as much as 15% at one point during the session.</p><p>The sell-off was largely due to Tesla&#39;s disappointing delivery numbers for Q4 2022, which were released on Monday when markets were closed. Tesla achieved record deliveries of 1.314 million vehicles in 2022, including 405,278 deliveries in Q4 alone. But many analysts, such as Wedbush Securities&#39; Dan Ives, were expecting a Q4 delivery figure in the range of 415,000 to 420,000.</p><p>Tesla produced 8.5% more vehicles than it delivered for the quarter. It remains to be seen if the gap between production and deliveries was due to decreasing demand or logistics issues. Either way, the lower-than-expected delivery number adds yet another cause for concern to a stock that is down a staggering 59% in the last three months.</p><p>With the stock hitting a two-year intraday low on Monday, is now the time to go all-in? Or could there be more pain ahead for the electric vehicle (EV) industry leader?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9647ab92415cfa85ca674b8957ba91b9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Tesla.</span></p><h2>A tale of two investment theses</h2><p><b>Daniel Foelber:</b> As tempting as it may be to buy Tesla amid the steep sell-off, I think investors should first take a step back and decide what they believe Tesla&#39;s value proposition really is.</p><p>There are many facets to Tesla&#39;s business. The core is the production and sale of electric cars to consumers, which has a lot of room for growth in its own right.</p><p>But the bigger growth story is arguably the company&#39;s penetration into the trucking industry, as well as its proprietary autonomous driving technology.</p><p>There are plenty of companies that are working on lowering emissions for Class 8 trucks by substituting diesel for compressed natural gas or using alternative fuels. But no company has achieved the milestones that Tesla has with its electric semi-truck. In November of last year, Tesla&#39;s semi-truck achieved 500 miles of range with a full load. By comparison, <b>Volvo</b>&#39;s electric FM truck has a range of over 235 miles. However, the electric semi-truck race is just as much about cost and availability as it is about specs. Even so, Tesla&#39;s progress indicates that the electric semi-truck industry could one day end up being more profitable for Tesla than its consumer cars. But that&#39;s a big &#34;if.&#34; And in the meantime, it&#39;s going to cost a lot of money to scale semi-truck production.</p><p>In addition to the semi-truck and autonomous driving markets, there&#39;s the opportunity for Tesla to expand its renewable energy generation and storage efforts, which remain a sideshow at this point.</p><p>Investors interested in the EV industry are getting a rare opportunity to buy Tesla stock at its lowest forward price to earnings ratio ever. However, the stock is still more expensive today than it was from 2016 to 2019 based on its tangible book value.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febd5852afe0bfb3481820aec769acae\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"496\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TSLA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</span></p><p>The company is likely to take market share in a slowdown because it has the balance sheet and operating margin to handle weakening demand better than its EV competitors. That advantage alone justifies opening a starter position in Tesla stock.</p><p>But if you&#39;re the kind of investor that believes Tesla has a chance to disrupt the autonomous driving industry and take market share across the transportation industry (including the trucking industry), then making Tesla a top-10 -- or even top-five -- holding makes a lot of sense, especially at this price.</p><h2>Accumulation is a safer approach</h2><p><b>Howard Smith:</b> Investors have had high expectations for Tesla over the past three years, and have assigned it a correspondingly high valuation. But for those that believe the company and EV sector will continue to grow, the 65% drop in the stock price in 2022 provides a compelling opportunity to invest in the industry leader. I do believe that, and I did recently add Tesla shares to my portfolio. That doesn&#39;t mean it&#39;s necessarily a good idea to jump in with an outsized position, however.</p><p>That&#39;s especially true with Tesla, since it is in a still-evolving sector and could disappoint investors in the near term. A case in point was its recently announced fourth-quarter vehicle delivery data. The shortfall in deliveries came as demand has been impacted by increasing competition, slowing global economies, and the effects of COVID-19 spreading in China.</p><p>Looking at the bigger picture, however, the company&#39;s growth remains strong. Its production increased 47% in 2022 versus 2021. But deliveries only increased 40%, leading investors to believe Tesla might not, in fact, meet its previous projections to average 50% growth over the next few years.</p><p>That said, now seems to be a good time to begin buying, or adding to your position. Even if Tesla grows earnings by only 30%, it recently was priced at a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of below 1.0 based on 2023 estimates. Accumulating shares makes sense now for long-term investors, but there may be better prices to add more later. That&#39;s a good reason not to jump in all at once.</p><h2>Tesla is a battleground stock for a reason</h2><p>As swift and brutal as the Tesla stock sell-off has been, there are valid reasons why Tesla stock deserved to fall. The valuation had gotten nosebleed, to put it lightly. Tesla stock rose 743% in 2020 and then <i>another</i> 50% in 2021 for a two-year gain of -- wait for it -- 1,263%.</p><p>Tesla stock could easily set new all-time highs in the future. The problem with stock prices rising so quickly is that the company has to hit lofty goals to make the valuation reasonable. And as impressive as Tesla&#39;s growth has been, a mix of macroeconomic and self-inflicted challenges are making those lofty goals increasingly unlikely. Missing delivery expectation paired with the possibility of a recession (and slowing demand for discretionary purchases like cars) adds another layer of issues impacting Tesla.</p><p>In sum, now isn&#39;t the time to go all-in on Tesla stock. But it is the perfect opportunity to reassess what your investment thesis for Tesla is, as well as if you want to open a starter position in Tesla or add to Tesla stock now that it&#39;s at a reasonable valuation.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Now the Time to Go All-In on Tesla Stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Now the Time to Go All-In on Tesla Stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-07 08:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/06/is-now-the-time-to-go-all-in-on-tesla-stock/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSIf you think Tesla is just a consumer EV play, then it's not a compelling buy.But if you think Tesla will become a major player in the commercial trucking industry and be a leader in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/06/is-now-the-time-to-go-all-in-on-tesla-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/06/is-now-the-time-to-go-all-in-on-tesla-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2301620946","content_text":"KEY POINTSIf you think Tesla is just a consumer EV play, then it's not a compelling buy.But if you think Tesla will become a major player in the commercial trucking industry and be a leader in autonomous technology, then it's a great time to buy.Tesla could fail to meet its lofty goals over the next couple of years.Tesla stock had a rough first day of the 2023 trading calendar year, falling 12.2%. But shares were down as much as 15% at one point during the session.The sell-off was largely due to Tesla's disappointing delivery numbers for Q4 2022, which were released on Monday when markets were closed. Tesla achieved record deliveries of 1.314 million vehicles in 2022, including 405,278 deliveries in Q4 alone. But many analysts, such as Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives, were expecting a Q4 delivery figure in the range of 415,000 to 420,000.Tesla produced 8.5% more vehicles than it delivered for the quarter. It remains to be seen if the gap between production and deliveries was due to decreasing demand or logistics issues. Either way, the lower-than-expected delivery number adds yet another cause for concern to a stock that is down a staggering 59% in the last three months.With the stock hitting a two-year intraday low on Monday, is now the time to go all-in? Or could there be more pain ahead for the electric vehicle (EV) industry leader?Image source: Tesla.A tale of two investment thesesDaniel Foelber: As tempting as it may be to buy Tesla amid the steep sell-off, I think investors should first take a step back and decide what they believe Tesla's value proposition really is.There are many facets to Tesla's business. The core is the production and sale of electric cars to consumers, which has a lot of room for growth in its own right.But the bigger growth story is arguably the company's penetration into the trucking industry, as well as its proprietary autonomous driving technology.There are plenty of companies that are working on lowering emissions for Class 8 trucks by substituting diesel for compressed natural gas or using alternative fuels. But no company has achieved the milestones that Tesla has with its electric semi-truck. In November of last year, Tesla's semi-truck achieved 500 miles of range with a full load. By comparison, Volvo's electric FM truck has a range of over 235 miles. However, the electric semi-truck race is just as much about cost and availability as it is about specs. Even so, Tesla's progress indicates that the electric semi-truck industry could one day end up being more profitable for Tesla than its consumer cars. But that's a big \"if.\" And in the meantime, it's going to cost a lot of money to scale semi-truck production.In addition to the semi-truck and autonomous driving markets, there's the opportunity for Tesla to expand its renewable energy generation and storage efforts, which remain a sideshow at this point.Investors interested in the EV industry are getting a rare opportunity to buy Tesla stock at its lowest forward price to earnings ratio ever. However, the stock is still more expensive today than it was from 2016 to 2019 based on its tangible book value.TSLA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YChartsThe company is likely to take market share in a slowdown because it has the balance sheet and operating margin to handle weakening demand better than its EV competitors. That advantage alone justifies opening a starter position in Tesla stock.But if you're the kind of investor that believes Tesla has a chance to disrupt the autonomous driving industry and take market share across the transportation industry (including the trucking industry), then making Tesla a top-10 -- or even top-five -- holding makes a lot of sense, especially at this price.Accumulation is a safer approachHoward Smith: Investors have had high expectations for Tesla over the past three years, and have assigned it a correspondingly high valuation. But for those that believe the company and EV sector will continue to grow, the 65% drop in the stock price in 2022 provides a compelling opportunity to invest in the industry leader. I do believe that, and I did recently add Tesla shares to my portfolio. That doesn't mean it's necessarily a good idea to jump in with an outsized position, however.That's especially true with Tesla, since it is in a still-evolving sector and could disappoint investors in the near term. A case in point was its recently announced fourth-quarter vehicle delivery data. The shortfall in deliveries came as demand has been impacted by increasing competition, slowing global economies, and the effects of COVID-19 spreading in China.Looking at the bigger picture, however, the company's growth remains strong. Its production increased 47% in 2022 versus 2021. But deliveries only increased 40%, leading investors to believe Tesla might not, in fact, meet its previous projections to average 50% growth over the next few years.That said, now seems to be a good time to begin buying, or adding to your position. Even if Tesla grows earnings by only 30%, it recently was priced at a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of below 1.0 based on 2023 estimates. Accumulating shares makes sense now for long-term investors, but there may be better prices to add more later. That's a good reason not to jump in all at once.Tesla is a battleground stock for a reasonAs swift and brutal as the Tesla stock sell-off has been, there are valid reasons why Tesla stock deserved to fall. The valuation had gotten nosebleed, to put it lightly. Tesla stock rose 743% in 2020 and then another 50% in 2021 for a two-year gain of -- wait for it -- 1,263%.Tesla stock could easily set new all-time highs in the future. The problem with stock prices rising so quickly is that the company has to hit lofty goals to make the valuation reasonable. And as impressive as Tesla's growth has been, a mix of macroeconomic and self-inflicted challenges are making those lofty goals increasingly unlikely. Missing delivery expectation paired with the possibility of a recession (and slowing demand for discretionary purchases like cars) adds another layer of issues impacting Tesla.In sum, now isn't the time to go all-in on Tesla stock. But it is the perfect opportunity to reassess what your investment thesis for Tesla is, as well as if you want to open a starter position in Tesla or add to Tesla stock now that it's at a reasonable valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961808969,"gmtCreate":1668905274552,"gmtModify":1676538125713,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961808969","repostId":"2284038371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284038371","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1668918242,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284038371?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-20 12:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Qualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284038371","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement stand","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn&#39;t?!</p><p>Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market&#39;s crazy gyrations? I know I do.</p><p>Does the idea of being able to count on steadily growing income in all market, economic, inflation, and interest rate conditions, sound appealing? It does to me.</p><p>Well then blue-chip dividend investing might be just what you&#39;re looking for.</p><p>When you hear &#34;dividend investing&#34; you probably think of boring, mature, and stable businesses like Altria (MO), Verizon (VZ) or Pepsi (PEP).</p><p>And while those are indeed wonderful ways to earn generous, very safe, and steadily growing income today, if you want to maximize long-term retirement income there is no better way than combining high-yield and fast-growth.</p><p>Why? Let&#39;s consider the examples of two fast-growing dividend chip stocks, QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).</p><p>Let&#39;s see what happens when we combine high-yield with fast-growth.</p><h4>Historical Total Returns Since 2011</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5abab739c65390aec9ecc4d8eb0e567b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Combining the world&#39;s best high-yield and growth exchange-traded funds (&#34;ETFs&#34;) with the growth and ultra-yield blue-chips created a far better performing portfolio over the last 11 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2027ec3b24edf389edb7de640c5e8ef0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>But more importantly for income investors, it also delivered superior income over time.</p><h4>Income Growth Rich Retirement Dreams Are Made Of</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68784dfa5159ea8211a71a811b27e419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><h4>Cumulative Dividends Since 2012: Per $1,000 Initial Investment</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>S&amp;P 500</b></td><td><b>SCHD</b></td><td><b>SCHD, QQQ, ENB, MO, NVDA, QCOM</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$471</td><td>$785</td><td>$1,177</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$359.54</b></td><td><b>$599.24</b></td><td><b>$898.47</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Income Growth Rate</b></td><td><b>9.0%</b></td><td><b>15.3%</b></td><td><b>27.9%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>0.47</td><td>0.79</td><td>1.18</td></tr><tr><td><b>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</b></td><td><b>0.36</b></td><td><b>0.60</b></td><td><b>0.90</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than S&amp;P</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>1.67</b></td><td><b>2.50</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Starting Yield</b></td><td><b>2.5%</b></td><td><b>3.2%</b></td><td><b>2.7%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>5.9%</td><td>13.3%</td><td>31.7%</td></tr><tr><td><b>2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></td><td><b>4.5%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>24.2%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</i></p><p>By combining yield and growth over the last 10 year income investors have enjoyed 28% annual income growth, 2X better than Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), and 3X better than the S&amp;P 500 (SP500).</p><p>They&#39;ve gotten back 90% of their initial investment in inflation-adjusted dividends, and enjoyed 2.5X more income than the S&amp;P 500 and 50% more income than SCHD alone.</p><p>And for every $1 invested in 2011 they are now getting $.24 in annual inflation-adjusted dividends, and that&#39;s growing exponentially each year.</p><ul><li>SCHD investors are getting $0.1 in annual income per $1 investment</li><li>S&amp;P 500 investors $0.05.</li></ul><p>Ok, so that&#39;s fine for those with 10+ years to invest, but surely retirees should stick to high-yield only right? WRONG!</p><p>Unless you expect to drop dead in 10 years let&#39;s not forget that retirements last a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872a8106a46bdef537bd2736d27566c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hamilton Project</p><p>22% of U.S. men can expect to live to 90 and 34% of woman.</p><p>In other words, even if you&#39;re already retired chances are very good that you have a 10+ year, or even 30 to 40 year time horizon.</p><p>And that&#39;s where the power of fast dividend compounding really shines.</p><p>How powerful is hyper-dividend compounding over 35 years?</p><p><b>MO + LOW Cumulative Dividends Since 1985 Per $1,000 Initial Investment </b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Altria</b></td><td><b>Lowe&#39;s</b></td><td><b>Altria + Lowe&#39;s</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$282,584</td><td>$37,611</td><td>$286,519</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$100,563.70</b></td><td><b>$13,384.70</b></td><td><b>$101,964.06</b></td></tr><tr><td>Annualized Income Growth Rate</td><td>18.8%</td><td>18.2%</td><td>21.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>282.58</td><td>37.61</td><td>286.52</td></tr><tr><td>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>100.56</td><td>13.38</td><td>101.96</td></tr><tr><td>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than Altria</td><td>NA</td><td>0.13</td><td>1.01</td></tr><tr><td>Starting Yield</td><td>4.8%</td><td>1.4%</td><td>3.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>2774.0%</td><td>682.5%</td><td>4350.4%</td></tr><tr><td><i><b>Today&#39;s Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></i></td><td><i><b>987.2%</b></i></td><td><i><b>242.9%</b></i></td><td><i><b>1548.2%</b></i></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</i></p><p>You can enjoy 100X your initial investment in inflation-adjusted income and achieve truly mind boggling income by combining ultra-yield with hyper-dividend growth.</p><p>And guess what? Combining yield + hyper-growth, even without dividends can be even more powerful.</p><p><b>MO + AMZN Cumulative Dividends Since 1998 Per $1,000 Initial Investment </b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Altria</b></td><td><b>Altria + Amazon</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$3,034.00</td><td>$101,408.00</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$1,657.92</b></td><td><b>$55,414.21</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Income Growth Rate</b></td><td><b>3.31%</b></td><td><b>27.96%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>3.034</td><td>101.408</td></tr><tr><td>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>1.657923497</td><td>55.41420765</td></tr><tr><td><b>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than Altria</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>33.4</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Starting Yield</b></td><td><b>3.80%</b></td><td><b>4.10%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>8.30%</td><td>1523.50%</td></tr><tr><td><b>2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></td><td><b>4.54%</b></td><td><b>832.51%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium) MO&#39;s dividend growth is low because of the 2007 and 2008 spin-offs. </i></p><p>Had you bought both AMZN and MO back in 1997, reinvested dividends, and rebalanced annually, today you&#39;ve received 33X more inflation-adjusted income over the last 24 years.</p><p>28% annual income growth means a 208X higher inflation-adjusted yield on cost.</p><p>Income growth over time tends to track total returns, so you want to make sure that you&#39;re dividend portfolio is likely to generate strong returns. Not just to keep up with inflation (2.3% long-term according to the bond market).</p><p>You want your standard of living to keep rising in retirement, no matter how long you live.</p><p>And that&#39;s where growth stocks like QCOM and NVDA can help.</p><p>Several members have asked for an update on those chip titans and after carefully examining both companies most recent fundamentals I have come to a surprising conclusion.</p><p>At the moment, Nvidia is the far better chip dividend stock to buy, for anyone looking to maximize long-term income. Let me show you why.</p><h2>Qualcomm: A Wonderful World-Beater Facing A Slower Growth Future</h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67fe0662e4bfe81da07f04ec434355c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>Chip makers are up 26% in the last month, though that&#39;s only after getting crushed in a ferocious bear market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d69773b50a5e03a69596f13a83839f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Nvidia fell as much as 63% in this bear market (so far). That&#39;s its 3rd worst bear market in history.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d99f60aeb036e67477e9669c4db6f92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>QCOM has fallen as much as 37% in this bear market, also it&#39;s 3rd worst bear market.</p><blockquote>Smartphone Weakness Finally Catches Up to Qualcomm As Inventories Build</blockquote><blockquote>Qualcomm’s guidance includes an estimated negative impact of about $2 billion in revenue due to weaker demand, foreign exchange headwinds, and excess inventories.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>One year ago, chip makers were the darlings of Wall Street. The Pandemic supply chain disruptions caused a chip shortage, while record $30 trillion in global stimulus caused a boom in demand for physical goods. Many of which require computer chips.</p><p>Some in the industry were even talking about a permanent industry shift, from cyclical boom and bust cycles, to a world in which chip makers could deliver steady, tech utility like secular growth.</p><p>Well, scratch that idea. It turns out chips are still a cyclical industry and smartphone demand is falling rapidly as the global economy weakens.</p><ul><li><h3>Samsung’s profit drops by more than 30% on weakening memory chip demand</h3></li></ul><blockquote>Qualcomm said it expects its mobile-phone handset business to fall In &#34;a low double-digit percentage range&#34; this year from last year. The company had earlier forecast a &#34;mid-single-digit percentage decline&#34; from 2021.&#34; - Seeking Alpha</blockquote><p>As early as Q2 QCOM&#39;s sales were soaring 36% on the back of strong smartphone demand.</p><p>Now they are expected to decline and so are earnings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce66de408aab5b717a5b2bb68b0810e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>After exploding higher during the pandemic, QCOM&#39;s earnings are expected to:</p><ul><li>fall 8% in 2023</li><li>grow 11% in 2024</li><li>2% EPS growth from 2022 to 2024.</li></ul><p>QCOM&#39;s licensing business, which generates incredible 73% operating margins, isn&#39;t expected to grow in the future, though its 263,708 patents are still expected to mint free cash flow for years to come.</p><p>At least in the short-term analysts growth outlooks have dimmed for QCOM which is now expected to grow around 8% over the long-term, after we get past the 2023 recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac98516ffd9c404ce1f26b009c14b7be\" tg-width=\"165\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bfc4e00ba39fff6f4d44310dcc87e53\" tg-width=\"161\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53aa912a1d243b464b584069d100822f\" tg-width=\"154\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5085ebb2648b58f1f0759749655f78d\" tg-width=\"151\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Is QCOM likely to actually grow at 8% over time? Which would make the total return outlook rather uninspiring?</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.8%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>12.6%</td><td>8.8%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>11.0</td><td>1.88</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</a></td><td>3.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>8.4%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.81</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.4%</td><td>13.2</td><td>1.70</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.8</td><td>1.61</td></tr><tr><td><b>Qualcomm</b></td><td><b>2.4%</b></td><td><b>7.8%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>7.1%</b></td><td><b>4.8%</b></td><td><b>15.0</b></td><td><b>1.60</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>If analysts are right, then QCOM might merely match the market going forward.</p><p>But I don&#39;t actually expect QCOM to grow at just 8% in the future, and here are two reasons why.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30bdacaec1f98fc2eb5d92a3eb153e11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investor presentation</p><p>QCOM&#39;s addressable market is expected to grow from $100 billion per year (43% market share) to $700 billion in the next decade. QCOM is diversifying into cloud computing, driverless cars, and the internet of things or IOT.</p><p>This makes me think that the recent decline in growth outlook is due to the recent cyclical downturn, which often happens with chip makers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9747d6d688ce9297cc0103ae347c27e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>However, in the short-term QCOM investors are going to have to be patient, because the recent face-ripping rally has reduced the total return potential for the next few years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befa76d7c9d62162913273291a116352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>QCOM has rallied 21% off its November 3rd lows, and combined with a weak global growth outlook for 2023, means that short-term growth prospects are rather weak.</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean that QCOM isn&#39;t a potentially attractive buy.</p><ul><li>fair value: $163.92</li><li>current price: $126.02</li><li><b>discount to fair value: 23%</b></li><li><b>DK rating: potentially strong buy.</b></li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d424fe27b124f6e474c19d42ac832ae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>QCOM is trading at 11.4X consensus trough earnings, and just 9.3X cash-adjusted trough earnings.</p><p>That means it&#39;s pricing in approximately 1.6% CAGR long-term growth, far below the 7.8% analysts currently expect.</p><h4><b>Qualcomm 2024 Consensus Return Potential </b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9077fd745b5fe7442c68b30862a3eaa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Which means that if QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical market-determined fair value it could deliver Buffett-like 19% annual returns over the next three years.</p><ul><li>about 2X the S&amp;P consensus</li></ul><h4><b>Qualcomm 2028 Consensus Return Potential</b></h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0558e4ce2c146ab3b7ce7239e041cd2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Even with just 3.5% annual EPS growth expected through 2028, QCOM could more than double your money, delivering 14% annual returns, about 2X the S&amp;P consensus.</p><p>Or to put another way, if you buy QCOM today, you get an Ultra-SWAN quality dividend growth powerhouse, that could more than double your money as we wait to see if QCOM&#39;s growth outlook improves in the future.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3196bed203f1ac1f0e409a8c19f29a3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"94\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FActSet</p><p>QCOM has been paying a dividend for 19 consecutive years, and raised it every year. The dividend growth rate has been a stellar 20% annually and its delivered close to 14% annual returns.</p><ul><li>the current five year consensus return forecast.</li></ul><p>I think long-term QCOM should be able to continue delivering 13% to 14% long-term returns, which makes it worth buying today, or at least holding it if you already own it.</p><ul><li>13% to 14% long-term returns is better than SCHD, the S&amp;P, dividend aristocrats, and the Nasdaq.</li></ul><h4>Qualcomm Investment Decision Score</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>DK<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37f29c106559f4ad320cb69a3c28da63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p>QCOM might not be a table-pounding buy compared to the S&amp;P 500, but it&#39;s still a satisfactory one that&#39;s offering:</p><ul><li>superior and safer yield</li><li>a faster-growing dividend</li><li>better medium-term total returns</li><li>66% better risk-adjusted expected returns</li><li>30% higher income potential over the next five years than the S&amp;P</li></ul><h2>NVIDIA: A Chip Specialist Facing A Cyclical Downturn But Whose Hyper-Growth Outlook Remains Intact</h2><p>NVDA fell off a cliff when the Biden Administration announced export controls on chips to China.</p><p>Fortunately the company adapted quickly and has already announced new export control compliant chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9acc1f5a652b10b06cb686a4f3128c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>News like that, along with the overall &#34;risk on&#34; sentiment in stocks, has helped drive NVDA up 44% in recent weeks.</p><p>This isn&#39;t surprising given that NVDA is a very volatile stock, historically 2.2X more volatile than the S&amp;P 500.</p><h4>Nvidia Rolling Returns Since Feb 1999 IPO</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3defbbc0997112ddbde7a6f2bca1a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"150\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Gut churning volatility cuts both ways, with 90% crashes followed by 751% one year rallies.</p><p>From bear market lows NVDA is capable of:</p><ul><li>140% annual returns for 3 years = 13.8X in 3 years</li><li>89% annual returns for five years = 24.1X in five years</li><li>81% annual returns for seven years = 64.9X in seven years</li><li>47% annual returns for 10 years = 92.4X in 10 years</li><li>34% annual returns for 15 years = 77.1X in 15 years.</li></ul><p>The question investors need answered today, is what does NVDA&#39;s long-term outlook like now that the U.S. and China are in an economic cold war?</p><blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s Data Center Business Drives the Firm&#39;s Wide Moat Rating</blockquote><blockquote>Nvidia is the top designer of discrete graphics processing units that enhance the visual experience on computing platforms. The firm&#39;s chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming and data centers.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>NVDA might have started out focused on gaming PCs, but it&#39;s now at the forefront of some of the world&#39;s best secular growth trends.</p><ul><li>cloud computing</li><li>AI</li><li>driverless cars</li><li>automation.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6801dafd36eaa41110bce2bee51efb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>Management estimates NVDA&#39;s total addressable market is $1 trillion per year (2.7% market share) and those markets are the backbone of the entire $100 trillion global economy.</p><blockquote>The acquisition of Mellanox has helped diversify Nvidia’s end-market exposure, and we suspect the firm will derive over half of revenue from the data center segment going forward, which should help mitigate some of the volatility Nvidia has faced in its gaming and cryptocurrency mining-related sales over the past few years.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>NVDA has been diversifying away from gaming for years, and Morningstar thinks they could soon get over 50% of sales from datacenters, a far more stable business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d8a7f017af371ef6cc2091c3cce253\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>Analysts are even more bullish on the datacenter business, expecting it to triple in the next five years.</p><ul><li>25% annual growth rate.</li></ul><p>By 2027 analysts think 73% of NVDA&#39;s sales will be coming from datacenters.</p><p>Why? Because datacenters are enterprise and big businesses don&#39;t mind spending millions on the best hardware if it saves them money in the long-term.</p><p>What kind of businesses are NVDA&#39;s datacenter customers?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19525a0bcbf34d91c2eab5c4b5987e45\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>NVDA&#39;s datacenter customers have deep pockets and are expected to help drive incredible long-term growth. How incredible?</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117a0f71158d9a01f27455ae2f8895f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>How about tripling earnings in five years, and 18% long-term earnings growth?</p><ul><li>20% to 78% CAGR growth over the last 20 years.</li></ul><p>Given NVDA&#39;s massive $1 trillion addressable market, and dominance in advanced GPUs (the &#34;super chips&#34; that drive the future) I consider 18% long-term growth a reasonable estimate from all 46 analysts who cover it.</p><p>What does that potentially mean for investors?</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Nvidia</b></td><td><b>0.1%</b></td><td><b>17.7%</b></td><td><b>17.8%</b></td><td><b>12.5%</b></td><td><b>10.1%</b></td><td><b>7.1</b></td><td><b>2.62</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.8%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>12.6%</td><td>8.8%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>11.0</td><td>1.88</td></tr><tr><td>Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</td><td>3.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>8.4%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.81</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.4%</td><td>13.2</td><td>1.70</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.8</td><td>1.61</td></tr><tr><td><b>Qualcomm</b></td><td><b>2.4%</b></td><td><b>7.8%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>7.1%</b></td><td><b>4.8%</b></td><td><b>15.0</b></td><td><b>1.60</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)</i></p><p>Analysts expect Buffett-like 18% long-term returns from NVDA, not much bellow its 22% CAGR rolling 15-year returns since 1999.</p><p>In other words:</p><ul><li>QCOM is struggling with several slow years of growth due to cyclical headwinds</li><li>NVDA&#39;s growth engine is firing on all cylinders thanks to its dominance of super chip GPUs driving the future of the world economy</li></ul><p>OK, so NVDA is the best chip stock right? And clearly better than QCOM? Not necessarily.</p><h2>The Biggest Problem Income Investors Will Have With Nvidia</h2><p>What is there to not love about NVDA? Is it the balance sheet?</p><ul><li>A stable credit rating from S&amp;P = 0.66% 30-year bankruptcy risk</li><li>$11 billion in net cash on the balance sheet</li><li>$6.6 billion in annual free cash flow.</li></ul><p>No, NVDA&#39;s balanced sheet is a fortress and it&#39;s a free cash flow minting machine.</p><p>No, the biggest issue about NVDA is how stingy management is with the dividend.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaab450b786d3fc8033addc276f49980\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>NVDA&#39;s overall dividend growth rate is expectational, 27% CAGR since it began paying on in 2013. And its 52% CAGR annual total returns over that time period put even Amazon (AMZN) to shame.</p><p>But note how the dividend growth rate began slowing in 2018 and it hasn&#39;t raised its dividend for two years. The free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) payout ratio has fallen to 5%, 1/10th the credit rating safety guideline for this industry.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s dividend yield is 0.1% and even if management were to take the payout ratio to the 50% safety guideline it would be just 1%, far below other world-beater blue-chip dividend chip stocks.</p><ul><li>Broadcom (AVGO): 3.2%</li><li>Texas Instruments (TXN): 2.8%</li><li>Qualcomm: 2.4%.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed8059fb756ebb0208f4a9255da8fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>Value investors might also be uncomfortable with a company trading at 38X forward earnings.</p><ul><li>cash-adjusted P/E is 29X</li></ul><p>What is NVDA&#39;s fair value?</p><ul><li>NVDA fair value: $136.39</li><li>current price: $160.55</li><li>discount to fair value: -18%</li><li>DK rating: hold.</li></ul><p>NVDA&#39;s 45% rally in recent weeks meant the margin of safety went from 21% to -18%.</p><p>Today NVDA is at a premium price that means a lot of downside risk for one of the most volatile world-beater tech blue-chips in the world.</p><p>If the 2023 recession causes earnings estimates to come down in the coming quarters? Then NVDA could suffer a sharp decline like these.</p><h4>Nvidia In The 2022 Bear Market</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb0d9fdc2e84efd099a075dc786d759\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p></p><p>In the past year alone NVDA has suffered double-digit monthly declines no less than six times, including 32% crash in April.</p><h4>Nvidia In The Pandemic</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5e4c84cd9a33c4eb1344645e4d9e02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Nvidia held up well in the Pandemic, as did most tech stocks.</p><ul><li>The Nasdaq 100 fell just 12% while the S&amp;P fell 34%.</li></ul><p>But NVDA&#39;s crashes are the stuff of legend, and anyone owning it should be prepared for truly gut-wrenching volatility in the future. What kind of volatility?</p><h4>Nvidia In The 2018 Bear Market</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a727821abe6d4024c68205c4a25cc4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Imagine a stock you own falls 25% in a month, then 22% the next month, and then another 18% the following month.</p><p>That&#39;s what happened in the 2018 bear market.</p><ul><li>53% decline in 3 months</li><li>S&amp;P fell 21%.</li></ul><p>And that was just the 4th largest bear market in NVDA&#39;s history.</p><ul><li>it&#39;s suffered six 40+% crashes in the last 23 years</li><li>averaging once every four years.</li></ul><h4>Nvidia In The 2011 Bear Market</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2451a52de33e3efbd62756ec8aae19d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Compared to some its crashes, the 2011 bear market decline of 38% was relatively tame.</p><h4>Nvidia In The Great Recession</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be365a32a8f24d156b47fe1ce741ea2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>NVDA dell 80% during the Great Recession, including falling almost 40% in July 2008. It fell 54% from June to July of 2008, a level of volatility that only those who owned it in a diversified portfolio could stomach.</p><h4>Nvidia Pre-Tech Crash</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b85abd332be6f5f0eee3a6ed3ed98348\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Even before the tech crash of 2000 to 2002, NVDA was capable of falling 32% in a single month.</p><h4>Nvidia During The Tech Crash</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f482c390124c7ab2212d687c4ad53ccf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34faa537584a4beab097d4a2e14c2f34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p></p><p>If you think a 45% one month rally means NVDA is out of the woods, you&#39;re wrong.</p><p>During the Tech Crash NVDA had nine 20+% single month rallies.</p><p>That includes nearly tripling from October 2001 to December 2001.</p><p>NVDA then proceeded to fall nine straight months, a total of 87%, including getting cut in half in June 2002.</p><ul><li>after already falling 50% in the previous five months</li><li>and then it fell another 50% before bottoming in September of 2022.</li></ul><p>So what if you buy NVDA today? At a 17% historical premium? Will you regret it? That depends on your time horizon. Over the next few months? Probably you&#39;re in for a wild wide...to the downside.</p><ul><li>2023 recession is expected to cause the market to bottom at 3,000 to 3,400 between Q1 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024.</li></ul><p>But in the medium-term and long-term?</p><h4>Nvidia 2025 Consensus Total Return Potential</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1c252be18bc5c5c6ab04785c41297a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>NVDA&#39;s P/E peaked in the Pandemic bubble at 82X, compared to a historical market-determined fair value of 32.</p><p>It&#39;s 60% collapse brought it back to historical fair value and then it rallied 45% and became 18% overvalued. Despite strong growth in 2024 and 2025, it&#39;s consensus return potential is effectively zero.</p><h4>NVIDIA 2028 Consensus Total Return Potential</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33eed1944ddaef0cf8144129739a81a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>NVDA&#39;s growth rate is so strong that it might almost double even from today&#39;s 18% historical premium.</p><ul><li>approximately 2X the S&amp;P consensus.</li></ul><p>But if those estimates come down then NVDA investors could be in for a rough and highly volatile few years.</p><h4>Nvidia Investment Decision Score</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>DK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50cbbe0e07e810009a9c363f88f22c6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p>NVDA today, even at an 18% premium, is a superior choice compared to the S&amp;P 500.</p><ul><li>higher risk-adjusted expected return than the S&amp;P over the next five years</li><li>80% higher long-term annual return potential</li></ul><h2>Bottom Line: Nvidia Is The Far Better Growth Stock But Qualcomm Is The Far Better Buy Today</h2><p>When it comes to maximizing safe long-term income, combining hyper-growth with high-yield is the single best strategy.</p><p>And that&#39;s why blue-chip income investors love companies like QCOM and NVDA, which can turbocharge their long-term income growth rates.</p><ul><li>SCHD delivered 15% annual income growth over the last decade</li><li>SCHD, QQQ, MO, ENB, QCOM, and NVDA delivered 28% CAGR</li><li>and 50% more overall inflation-adjusted income.</li></ul><p>And when it comes to the issue of which chip titan is the better growth stock, it looks like NVDA is the hands down winner.</p><ul><li>a 10X bigger addressable market today (though QCOM is planning to catch up 70% of the way within a decade)</li><li>2x the median growth consensus</li><li>historically 7% higher annual returns.</li></ul><p>So you might think that NVDA is the hands down winner here. But remember that valuation matters, and it matters a lot.</p><ul><li>QCOM is 20% historically undervalued</li><li>NVDA is almost 20% historically overvalued.</li></ul><p>Given that NVDA is one of the most volatile companies on earth, capable of rising or falling 60% in a single month, knowingly overpaying for it is just asking for extreme portfolio short-term pain.</p><p>If you own NVDA today, as I do? I don&#39;t recommend selling it. Not when you&#39;ve potentially locked in Buffett-like 18% CAGR long-term returns and its growth engines are firing on all cylinders.</p><p>But for new money today? QCOM is the far better option, and could more than double in the next five years.</p><p>Even if QCOM&#39;s growth outlook never recovers from its current 8%, paying 9.4X cash-adjusted earnings gives you a very nice margin of safety.</p><p>One that means anyone buying QCOM today is likely to be pleased in 5+ years, and possibly feel like a stock market genius in 10+ years.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-20 12:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market's crazy gyrations? I know I do.Does the idea of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284038371","content_text":"Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market's crazy gyrations? I know I do.Does the idea of being able to count on steadily growing income in all market, economic, inflation, and interest rate conditions, sound appealing? It does to me.Well then blue-chip dividend investing might be just what you're looking for.When you hear \"dividend investing\" you probably think of boring, mature, and stable businesses like Altria (MO), Verizon (VZ) or Pepsi (PEP).And while those are indeed wonderful ways to earn generous, very safe, and steadily growing income today, if you want to maximize long-term retirement income there is no better way than combining high-yield and fast-growth.Why? Let's consider the examples of two fast-growing dividend chip stocks, QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).Let's see what happens when we combine high-yield with fast-growth.Historical Total Returns Since 2011Portfolio Visualizer PremiumCombining the world's best high-yield and growth exchange-traded funds (\"ETFs\") with the growth and ultra-yield blue-chips created a far better performing portfolio over the last 11 years.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumBut more importantly for income investors, it also delivered superior income over time.Income Growth Rich Retirement Dreams Are Made OfPortfolio Visualizer PremiumCumulative Dividends Since 2012: Per $1,000 Initial InvestmentMetricS&P 500SCHDSCHD, QQQ, ENB, MO, NVDA, QCOMTotal Dividends$471$785$1,177Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$359.54$599.24$898.47Annualized Income Growth Rate9.0%15.3%27.9%Total Income/Initial Investment %0.470.791.18Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %0.360.600.90More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than S&PNA1.672.50Starting Yield2.5%3.2%2.7%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)5.9%13.3%31.7%2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)4.5%10.2%24.2%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)By combining yield and growth over the last 10 year income investors have enjoyed 28% annual income growth, 2X better than Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), and 3X better than the S&P 500 (SP500).They've gotten back 90% of their initial investment in inflation-adjusted dividends, and enjoyed 2.5X more income than the S&P 500 and 50% more income than SCHD alone.And for every $1 invested in 2011 they are now getting $.24 in annual inflation-adjusted dividends, and that's growing exponentially each year.SCHD investors are getting $0.1 in annual income per $1 investmentS&P 500 investors $0.05.Ok, so that's fine for those with 10+ years to invest, but surely retirees should stick to high-yield only right? WRONG!Unless you expect to drop dead in 10 years let's not forget that retirements last a long time.Hamilton Project22% of U.S. men can expect to live to 90 and 34% of woman.In other words, even if you're already retired chances are very good that you have a 10+ year, or even 30 to 40 year time horizon.And that's where the power of fast dividend compounding really shines.How powerful is hyper-dividend compounding over 35 years?MO + LOW Cumulative Dividends Since 1985 Per $1,000 Initial Investment MetricAltriaLowe'sAltria + Lowe'sTotal Dividends$282,584$37,611$286,519Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$100,563.70$13,384.70$101,964.06Annualized Income Growth Rate18.8%18.2%21.7%Total Income/Initial Investment %282.5837.61286.52Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %100.5613.38101.96More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than AltriaNA0.131.01Starting Yield4.8%1.4%3.0%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)2774.0%682.5%4350.4%Today's Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)987.2%242.9%1548.2%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)You can enjoy 100X your initial investment in inflation-adjusted income and achieve truly mind boggling income by combining ultra-yield with hyper-dividend growth.And guess what? Combining yield + hyper-growth, even without dividends can be even more powerful.MO + AMZN Cumulative Dividends Since 1998 Per $1,000 Initial Investment MetricAltriaAltria + AmazonTotal Dividends$3,034.00$101,408.00Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$1,657.92$55,414.21Annualized Income Growth Rate3.31%27.96%Total Income/Initial Investment %3.034101.408Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %1.65792349755.41420765More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than AltriaNA33.4Starting Yield3.80%4.10%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)8.30%1523.50%2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)4.54%832.51%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium) MO's dividend growth is low because of the 2007 and 2008 spin-offs. Had you bought both AMZN and MO back in 1997, reinvested dividends, and rebalanced annually, today you've received 33X more inflation-adjusted income over the last 24 years.28% annual income growth means a 208X higher inflation-adjusted yield on cost.Income growth over time tends to track total returns, so you want to make sure that you're dividend portfolio is likely to generate strong returns. Not just to keep up with inflation (2.3% long-term according to the bond market).You want your standard of living to keep rising in retirement, no matter how long you live.And that's where growth stocks like QCOM and NVDA can help.Several members have asked for an update on those chip titans and after carefully examining both companies most recent fundamentals I have come to a surprising conclusion.At the moment, Nvidia is the far better chip dividend stock to buy, for anyone looking to maximize long-term income. Let me show you why.Qualcomm: A Wonderful World-Beater Facing A Slower Growth FutureYchartsChip makers are up 26% in the last month, though that's only after getting crushed in a ferocious bear market.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumNvidia fell as much as 63% in this bear market (so far). That's its 3rd worst bear market in history.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumQCOM has fallen as much as 37% in this bear market, also it's 3rd worst bear market.Smartphone Weakness Finally Catches Up to Qualcomm As Inventories BuildQualcomm’s guidance includes an estimated negative impact of about $2 billion in revenue due to weaker demand, foreign exchange headwinds, and excess inventories.\" - MorningstarOne year ago, chip makers were the darlings of Wall Street. The Pandemic supply chain disruptions caused a chip shortage, while record $30 trillion in global stimulus caused a boom in demand for physical goods. Many of which require computer chips.Some in the industry were even talking about a permanent industry shift, from cyclical boom and bust cycles, to a world in which chip makers could deliver steady, tech utility like secular growth.Well, scratch that idea. It turns out chips are still a cyclical industry and smartphone demand is falling rapidly as the global economy weakens.Samsung’s profit drops by more than 30% on weakening memory chip demandQualcomm said it expects its mobile-phone handset business to fall In \"a low double-digit percentage range\" this year from last year. The company had earlier forecast a \"mid-single-digit percentage decline\" from 2021.\" - Seeking AlphaAs early as Q2 QCOM's sales were soaring 36% on the back of strong smartphone demand.Now they are expected to decline and so are earnings.FactSet Research TerminalAfter exploding higher during the pandemic, QCOM's earnings are expected to:fall 8% in 2023grow 11% in 20242% EPS growth from 2022 to 2024.QCOM's licensing business, which generates incredible 73% operating margins, isn't expected to grow in the future, though its 263,708 patents are still expected to mint free cash flow for years to come.At least in the short-term analysts growth outlooks have dimmed for QCOM which is now expected to grow around 8% over the long-term, after we get past the 2023 recession.FAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetIs QCOM likely to actually grow at 8% over time? Which would make the total return outlook rather uninspiring?Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnNasdaq0.8%11.8%12.6%8.8%6.5%11.01.88Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF3.6%8.5%12.1%8.4%6.1%11.81.81Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.5%11.1%7.8%5.4%13.21.70S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.81.61Qualcomm2.4%7.8%10.2%7.1%4.8%15.01.60(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)If analysts are right, then QCOM might merely match the market going forward.But I don't actually expect QCOM to grow at just 8% in the future, and here are two reasons why.Investor presentationQCOM's addressable market is expected to grow from $100 billion per year (43% market share) to $700 billion in the next decade. QCOM is diversifying into cloud computing, driverless cars, and the internet of things or IOT.This makes me think that the recent decline in growth outlook is due to the recent cyclical downturn, which often happens with chip makers.YchartsHowever, in the short-term QCOM investors are going to have to be patient, because the recent face-ripping rally has reduced the total return potential for the next few years.YchartsQCOM has rallied 21% off its November 3rd lows, and combined with a weak global growth outlook for 2023, means that short-term growth prospects are rather weak.But that doesn't mean that QCOM isn't a potentially attractive buy.fair value: $163.92current price: $126.02discount to fair value: 23%DK rating: potentially strong buy.FactSet Research TerminalQCOM is trading at 11.4X consensus trough earnings, and just 9.3X cash-adjusted trough earnings.That means it's pricing in approximately 1.6% CAGR long-term growth, far below the 7.8% analysts currently expect.Qualcomm 2024 Consensus Return Potential FAST Graphs, FactSetWhich means that if QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical market-determined fair value it could deliver Buffett-like 19% annual returns over the next three years.about 2X the S&P consensusQualcomm 2028 Consensus Return PotentialFAST Graphs, FactSetEven with just 3.5% annual EPS growth expected through 2028, QCOM could more than double your money, delivering 14% annual returns, about 2X the S&P consensus.Or to put another way, if you buy QCOM today, you get an Ultra-SWAN quality dividend growth powerhouse, that could more than double your money as we wait to see if QCOM's growth outlook improves in the future.FAST Graphs, FActSetQCOM has been paying a dividend for 19 consecutive years, and raised it every year. The dividend growth rate has been a stellar 20% annually and its delivered close to 14% annual returns.the current five year consensus return forecast.I think long-term QCOM should be able to continue delivering 13% to 14% long-term returns, which makes it worth buying today, or at least holding it if you already own it.13% to 14% long-term returns is better than SCHD, the S&P, dividend aristocrats, and the Nasdaq.Qualcomm Investment Decision ScoreDKDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolQCOM might not be a table-pounding buy compared to the S&P 500, but it's still a satisfactory one that's offering:superior and safer yielda faster-growing dividendbetter medium-term total returns66% better risk-adjusted expected returns30% higher income potential over the next five years than the S&PNVIDIA: A Chip Specialist Facing A Cyclical Downturn But Whose Hyper-Growth Outlook Remains IntactNVDA fell off a cliff when the Biden Administration announced export controls on chips to China.Fortunately the company adapted quickly and has already announced new export control compliant chips.YchartsNews like that, along with the overall \"risk on\" sentiment in stocks, has helped drive NVDA up 44% in recent weeks.This isn't surprising given that NVDA is a very volatile stock, historically 2.2X more volatile than the S&P 500.Nvidia Rolling Returns Since Feb 1999 IPOPortfolio Visualizer PremiumGut churning volatility cuts both ways, with 90% crashes followed by 751% one year rallies.From bear market lows NVDA is capable of:140% annual returns for 3 years = 13.8X in 3 years89% annual returns for five years = 24.1X in five years81% annual returns for seven years = 64.9X in seven years47% annual returns for 10 years = 92.4X in 10 years34% annual returns for 15 years = 77.1X in 15 years.The question investors need answered today, is what does NVDA's long-term outlook like now that the U.S. and China are in an economic cold war?Nvidia's Data Center Business Drives the Firm's Wide Moat RatingNvidia is the top designer of discrete graphics processing units that enhance the visual experience on computing platforms. The firm's chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming and data centers.\" - MorningstarNVDA might have started out focused on gaming PCs, but it's now at the forefront of some of the world's best secular growth trends.cloud computingAIdriverless carsautomation.investor presentationManagement estimates NVDA's total addressable market is $1 trillion per year (2.7% market share) and those markets are the backbone of the entire $100 trillion global economy.The acquisition of Mellanox has helped diversify Nvidia’s end-market exposure, and we suspect the firm will derive over half of revenue from the data center segment going forward, which should help mitigate some of the volatility Nvidia has faced in its gaming and cryptocurrency mining-related sales over the past few years.\" - MorningstarNVDA has been diversifying away from gaming for years, and Morningstar thinks they could soon get over 50% of sales from datacenters, a far more stable business.FactSet Research TerminalAnalysts are even more bullish on the datacenter business, expecting it to triple in the next five years.25% annual growth rate.By 2027 analysts think 73% of NVDA's sales will be coming from datacenters.Why? Because datacenters are enterprise and big businesses don't mind spending millions on the best hardware if it saves them money in the long-term.What kind of businesses are NVDA's datacenter customers?investor presentationNVDA's datacenter customers have deep pockets and are expected to help drive incredible long-term growth. How incredible?FactSet Research TerminalHow about tripling earnings in five years, and 18% long-term earnings growth?20% to 78% CAGR growth over the last 20 years.Given NVDA's massive $1 trillion addressable market, and dominance in advanced GPUs (the \"super chips\" that drive the future) I consider 18% long-term growth a reasonable estimate from all 46 analysts who cover it.What does that potentially mean for investors?Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnNvidia0.1%17.7%17.8%12.5%10.1%7.12.62Nasdaq0.8%11.8%12.6%8.8%6.5%11.01.88Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF3.6%8.5%12.1%8.4%6.1%11.81.81Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.5%11.1%7.8%5.4%13.21.70S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.81.61Qualcomm2.4%7.8%10.2%7.1%4.8%15.01.60(Sources: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)Analysts expect Buffett-like 18% long-term returns from NVDA, not much bellow its 22% CAGR rolling 15-year returns since 1999.In other words:QCOM is struggling with several slow years of growth due to cyclical headwindsNVDA's growth engine is firing on all cylinders thanks to its dominance of super chip GPUs driving the future of the world economyOK, so NVDA is the best chip stock right? And clearly better than QCOM? Not necessarily.The Biggest Problem Income Investors Will Have With NvidiaWhat is there to not love about NVDA? Is it the balance sheet?A stable credit rating from S&P = 0.66% 30-year bankruptcy risk$11 billion in net cash on the balance sheet$6.6 billion in annual free cash flow.No, NVDA's balanced sheet is a fortress and it's a free cash flow minting machine.No, the biggest issue about NVDA is how stingy management is with the dividend.FAST Graphs, FactSetNVDA's overall dividend growth rate is expectational, 27% CAGR since it began paying on in 2013. And its 52% CAGR annual total returns over that time period put even Amazon (AMZN) to shame.But note how the dividend growth rate began slowing in 2018 and it hasn't raised its dividend for two years. The free cash flow (\"FCF\") payout ratio has fallen to 5%, 1/10th the credit rating safety guideline for this industry.NVDA's dividend yield is 0.1% and even if management were to take the payout ratio to the 50% safety guideline it would be just 1%, far below other world-beater blue-chip dividend chip stocks.Broadcom (AVGO): 3.2%Texas Instruments (TXN): 2.8%Qualcomm: 2.4%.FactSet Research TerminalValue investors might also be uncomfortable with a company trading at 38X forward earnings.cash-adjusted P/E is 29XWhat is NVDA's fair value?NVDA fair value: $136.39current price: $160.55discount to fair value: -18%DK rating: hold.NVDA's 45% rally in recent weeks meant the margin of safety went from 21% to -18%.Today NVDA is at a premium price that means a lot of downside risk for one of the most volatile world-beater tech blue-chips in the world.If the 2023 recession causes earnings estimates to come down in the coming quarters? Then NVDA could suffer a sharp decline like these.Nvidia In The 2022 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumIn the past year alone NVDA has suffered double-digit monthly declines no less than six times, including 32% crash in April.Nvidia In The PandemicPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNvidia held up well in the Pandemic, as did most tech stocks.The Nasdaq 100 fell just 12% while the S&P fell 34%.But NVDA's crashes are the stuff of legend, and anyone owning it should be prepared for truly gut-wrenching volatility in the future. What kind of volatility?Nvidia In The 2018 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumImagine a stock you own falls 25% in a month, then 22% the next month, and then another 18% the following month.That's what happened in the 2018 bear market.53% decline in 3 monthsS&P fell 21%.And that was just the 4th largest bear market in NVDA's history.it's suffered six 40+% crashes in the last 23 yearsaveraging once every four years.Nvidia In The 2011 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumCompared to some its crashes, the 2011 bear market decline of 38% was relatively tame.Nvidia In The Great RecessionPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNVDA dell 80% during the Great Recession, including falling almost 40% in July 2008. It fell 54% from June to July of 2008, a level of volatility that only those who owned it in a diversified portfolio could stomach.Nvidia Pre-Tech CrashPortfolio Visualizer PremiumEven before the tech crash of 2000 to 2002, NVDA was capable of falling 32% in a single month.Nvidia During The Tech CrashPortfolio Visualizer PremiumPortfolio Visualizer PremiumIf you think a 45% one month rally means NVDA is out of the woods, you're wrong.During the Tech Crash NVDA had nine 20+% single month rallies.That includes nearly tripling from October 2001 to December 2001.NVDA then proceeded to fall nine straight months, a total of 87%, including getting cut in half in June 2002.after already falling 50% in the previous five monthsand then it fell another 50% before bottoming in September of 2022.So what if you buy NVDA today? At a 17% historical premium? Will you regret it? That depends on your time horizon. Over the next few months? Probably you're in for a wild wide...to the downside.2023 recession is expected to cause the market to bottom at 3,000 to 3,400 between Q1 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024.But in the medium-term and long-term?Nvidia 2025 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)NVDA's P/E peaked in the Pandemic bubble at 82X, compared to a historical market-determined fair value of 32.It's 60% collapse brought it back to historical fair value and then it rallied 45% and became 18% overvalued. Despite strong growth in 2024 and 2025, it's consensus return potential is effectively zero.NVIDIA 2028 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)NVDA's growth rate is so strong that it might almost double even from today's 18% historical premium.approximately 2X the S&P consensus.But if those estimates come down then NVDA investors could be in for a rough and highly volatile few years.Nvidia Investment Decision ScoreDKDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolNVDA today, even at an 18% premium, is a superior choice compared to the S&P 500.higher risk-adjusted expected return than the S&P over the next five years80% higher long-term annual return potentialBottom Line: Nvidia Is The Far Better Growth Stock But Qualcomm Is The Far Better Buy TodayWhen it comes to maximizing safe long-term income, combining hyper-growth with high-yield is the single best strategy.And that's why blue-chip income investors love companies like QCOM and NVDA, which can turbocharge their long-term income growth rates.SCHD delivered 15% annual income growth over the last decadeSCHD, QQQ, MO, ENB, QCOM, and NVDA delivered 28% CAGRand 50% more overall inflation-adjusted income.And when it comes to the issue of which chip titan is the better growth stock, it looks like NVDA is the hands down winner.a 10X bigger addressable market today (though QCOM is planning to catch up 70% of the way within a decade)2x the median growth consensushistorically 7% higher annual returns.So you might think that NVDA is the hands down winner here. But remember that valuation matters, and it matters a lot.QCOM is 20% historically undervaluedNVDA is almost 20% historically overvalued.Given that NVDA is one of the most volatile companies on earth, capable of rising or falling 60% in a single month, knowingly overpaying for it is just asking for extreme portfolio short-term pain.If you own NVDA today, as I do? I don't recommend selling it. Not when you've potentially locked in Buffett-like 18% CAGR long-term returns and its growth engines are firing on all cylinders.But for new money today? QCOM is the far better option, and could more than double in the next five years.Even if QCOM's growth outlook never recovers from its current 8%, paying 9.4X cash-adjusted earnings gives you a very nice margin of safety.One that means anyone buying QCOM today is likely to be pleased in 5+ years, and possibly feel like a stock market genius in 10+ years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925594771,"gmtCreate":1672059371093,"gmtModify":1676538628112,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925594771","repostId":"1152955091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152955091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672068846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152955091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152955091","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I&#39;m still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&amp;P 500. But I wouldn&#39;t be short, and I wouldn&#39;t be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.</p><p>As for Tesla, I&#39;m not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I&#39;m seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.</p><h3>Tesla&#39;s Outlook</h3><p>Legendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:</p><p>&#34;There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.&#34;</p><p>A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla&#39;s net income has soared:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba100e8982cd53633e2922445131c56\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla&#39;s stock has plummeted. So, what&#39;s going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are &#34;outlook and trend investors.&#34; What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon&#39;s diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla&#39;s market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They&#39;re coming to light.</p><p>As for the market share, Forbes said it best:</p><p>&#34;Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.&#34;</p><p>That&#39;s U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.</p><p>Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker&#39;s stocks haven&#39;t. In addition, Tesla&#39;s displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone&#39;s rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there&#39;s more competition.</p><p>Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla&#39;s customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla&#39;s brand in a brutally competitive auto market.</p><p>One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that&#39;s just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbc8c1f4dbd2317e3869d3baa82c71d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tesla&#39;s Future Growth</h3><p>The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla&#39;s revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.</p><p>The other issue I&#39;m seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla&#39;s never before been this profitable:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3b58724f2aa85e9e67975a8a420129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.</p><p>All things considered, I&#39;m projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.</p><h3>Long-term Returns</h3><p>My 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.</p><p>Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I&#39;ve applied a terminal multiple of 16x.</p><p>Does Tesla&#39;s Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?</p><p>A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e666c6a5e6b8a46f7ae6082479758c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This usually means it&#39;s time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.</p><p>I explained in my article &#34;QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming&#34; why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.</p><p>Rather than looking at stocks that have &#34;gone to the moon,&#34; I&#39;m finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b1d1bc530a801074c58a4c41b77c74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don&#39;t want to buy a company that&#39;s about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I&#39;m seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).</p><h3>In Conclusion</h3><p>I&#39;ve upgraded Tesla to a &#34;sell&#34; from a &#34;strong-sell.&#34; Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a &#34;sell&#34; and &#34;hold&#34; rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros&#39; boom-bust model, I think it&#39;s best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; Until next time, happy investing.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 23:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152955091","content_text":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&P 500. But I wouldn't be short, and I wouldn't be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.As for Tesla, I'm not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I'm seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.Tesla's OutlookLegendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:\"There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.\"A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla's net income has soared:Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla's stock has plummeted. So, what's going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are \"outlook and trend investors.\" What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon's diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla's market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They're coming to light.As for the market share, Forbes said it best:\"Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.\"That's U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker's stocks haven't. In addition, Tesla's displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone's rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there's more competition.Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla's customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla's brand in a brutally competitive auto market.One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that's just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:Tesla's Future GrowthThe number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla's revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.The other issue I'm seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla's never before been this profitable:These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.All things considered, I'm projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.Long-term ReturnsMy 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I've applied a terminal multiple of 16x.Does Tesla's Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:This usually means it's time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.I explained in my article \"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\" why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.Rather than looking at stocks that have \"gone to the moon,\" I'm finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don't want to buy a company that's about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I'm seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).In ConclusionI've upgraded Tesla to a \"sell\" from a \"strong-sell.\" Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a \"sell\" and \"hold\" rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros' boom-bust model, I think it's best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" Until next time, happy investing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920826879,"gmtCreate":1670466499192,"gmtModify":1676538374226,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920826879","repostId":"2289975465","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2289975465","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1670449426,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2289975465?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-08 05:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-S&P, Nasdaq Extend Losing Streaks Amid Rising Recession Worries","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289975465","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down on Wednesday after a choppy session on Wall Street, a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq closed down on Wednesday after a choppy session on Wall Street, as investors struggled to grasp a clear direction as they weighed how the Federal Reserve&#39;s monetary policy tightening might feed through into corporate America.</p><p>For the benchmark S&amp;P 500, it was the fifth straight session that it has declined, while the Nasdaq finished down for the fourth time in a row. The Dow snapped a two-session losing streak, as it ended unchanged from the previous day.</p><p>The Nasdaq was dragged down by a 1.4% drop in Apple Inc on Morgan Stanley&#39;s iPhone shipment target cut and a 3.2% fall in Tesla Inc over production loss worries.</p><p>Markets have also been rattled by downbeat comments from top executives at Goldman Sachs Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co and Bank of America Corp on Tuesday that a mild to more pronounced recession was likely ahead.</p><p>Fears that the U.S. central bank might stick to a longer rate-hike cycle have intensified recently in the wake of strong jobs and service-sector reports.</p><p>More economic data, including weekly jobless claims, producer price index and the University of Michigan&#39;s consumer sentiment survey this week, will be on the watch list for clues on what to expect from the Fed on Dec. 14.</p><p>&#34;It feels like we&#39;re in this very uncertain period where investors are trying to ascertain what&#39;s more important, as policymakers are slowing down on rates but the data is not playing ball,&#34; said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.</p><p>&#34;The market is trying to balance the headwinds and the tailwinds and this is causing some confusion.&#34;</p><p>The CBOE volatility index, also known as Wall Street&#39;s fear gauge, closed at 22.68, its highest finish since Nov. 18.</p><p>Money market participants see a 91% chance that the Fed will increase its key benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December to 4.25%-4.50%, with rates peaking in May 2023 at 4.93%.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 lost 7.34 points, or 0.19%, to close at 3,933.92 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 56.34 points, or 0.51%, to finish at 10,958.55. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat, ending on 33,597.92.</p><p>Concerns about a steep rise in borrowing costs have boosted the dollar, but dented demand for risk assets such as equities this year. The S&amp;P 500 is on track to snap a three-year winning streak.</p><p>Three of the 11 major S&amp;P sector indexes were higher, with healthcare one of them. Technology and communication services, down 0.5 and 0.9% respectively, were the worst performers.</p><p>Energy fell for its fifth straight session. The sector&#39;s performance was weighed by U.S. crude prices falling again, settling at the lowest level in 2022, as concerns over the outlook for global growth wiped out all of the gains since Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the worst global energy supply crisis in decades.</p><p>Carvana Co had its worst day as a public company, losing nearly half its stock value, after Wedbush downgraded the used-car retailer&#39;s stock to &#34;underperform&#34; from &#34;neutral&#34; and slashed its price target to $1.</p><p>Meanwhile, United Airlines traded 4.1% lower. Unions representing various workers at the airline said they would join forces on contract negotiations.</p><p>Travel-related stocks were generally down. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines Group were 4.4% and 5.4% lower respectively, with cruise line operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and accommodation-linked Airbnb Inc and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> all falling between 1.7% and 4.4%.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.29 billion shares, compared with the 10.98 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted seven new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 307 new lows. (Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas, Johann M Cherian and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-S&P, Nasdaq Extend Losing Streaks Amid Rising Recession Worries</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-S&P, Nasdaq Extend Losing Streaks Amid Rising Recession Worries\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-08 05:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq closed down on Wednesday after a choppy session on Wall Street, as investors struggled to grasp a clear direction as they weighed how the Federal Reserve&#39;s monetary policy tightening might feed through into corporate America.</p><p>For the benchmark S&amp;P 500, it was the fifth straight session that it has declined, while the Nasdaq finished down for the fourth time in a row. The Dow snapped a two-session losing streak, as it ended unchanged from the previous day.</p><p>The Nasdaq was dragged down by a 1.4% drop in Apple Inc on Morgan Stanley&#39;s iPhone shipment target cut and a 3.2% fall in Tesla Inc over production loss worries.</p><p>Markets have also been rattled by downbeat comments from top executives at Goldman Sachs Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co and Bank of America Corp on Tuesday that a mild to more pronounced recession was likely ahead.</p><p>Fears that the U.S. central bank might stick to a longer rate-hike cycle have intensified recently in the wake of strong jobs and service-sector reports.</p><p>More economic data, including weekly jobless claims, producer price index and the University of Michigan&#39;s consumer sentiment survey this week, will be on the watch list for clues on what to expect from the Fed on Dec. 14.</p><p>&#34;It feels like we&#39;re in this very uncertain period where investors are trying to ascertain what&#39;s more important, as policymakers are slowing down on rates but the data is not playing ball,&#34; said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.</p><p>&#34;The market is trying to balance the headwinds and the tailwinds and this is causing some confusion.&#34;</p><p>The CBOE volatility index, also known as Wall Street&#39;s fear gauge, closed at 22.68, its highest finish since Nov. 18.</p><p>Money market participants see a 91% chance that the Fed will increase its key benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December to 4.25%-4.50%, with rates peaking in May 2023 at 4.93%.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 lost 7.34 points, or 0.19%, to close at 3,933.92 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 56.34 points, or 0.51%, to finish at 10,958.55. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat, ending on 33,597.92.</p><p>Concerns about a steep rise in borrowing costs have boosted the dollar, but dented demand for risk assets such as equities this year. The S&amp;P 500 is on track to snap a three-year winning streak.</p><p>Three of the 11 major S&amp;P sector indexes were higher, with healthcare one of them. Technology and communication services, down 0.5 and 0.9% respectively, were the worst performers.</p><p>Energy fell for its fifth straight session. The sector&#39;s performance was weighed by U.S. crude prices falling again, settling at the lowest level in 2022, as concerns over the outlook for global growth wiped out all of the gains since Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the worst global energy supply crisis in decades.</p><p>Carvana Co had its worst day as a public company, losing nearly half its stock value, after Wedbush downgraded the used-car retailer&#39;s stock to &#34;underperform&#34; from &#34;neutral&#34; and slashed its price target to $1.</p><p>Meanwhile, United Airlines traded 4.1% lower. Unions representing various workers at the airline said they would join forces on contract negotiations.</p><p>Travel-related stocks were generally down. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines Group were 4.4% and 5.4% lower respectively, with cruise line operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and accommodation-linked Airbnb Inc and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> all falling between 1.7% and 4.4%.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.29 billion shares, compared with the 10.98 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted seven new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 307 new lows. (Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas, Johann M Cherian and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2289975465","content_text":"(Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down on Wednesday after a choppy session on Wall Street, as investors struggled to grasp a clear direction as they weighed how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening might feed through into corporate America.For the benchmark S&P 500, it was the fifth straight session that it has declined, while the Nasdaq finished down for the fourth time in a row. The Dow snapped a two-session losing streak, as it ended unchanged from the previous day.The Nasdaq was dragged down by a 1.4% drop in Apple Inc on Morgan Stanley's iPhone shipment target cut and a 3.2% fall in Tesla Inc over production loss worries.Markets have also been rattled by downbeat comments from top executives at Goldman Sachs Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Bank of America Corp on Tuesday that a mild to more pronounced recession was likely ahead.Fears that the U.S. central bank might stick to a longer rate-hike cycle have intensified recently in the wake of strong jobs and service-sector reports.More economic data, including weekly jobless claims, producer price index and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey this week, will be on the watch list for clues on what to expect from the Fed on Dec. 14.\"It feels like we're in this very uncertain period where investors are trying to ascertain what's more important, as policymakers are slowing down on rates but the data is not playing ball,\" said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.\"The market is trying to balance the headwinds and the tailwinds and this is causing some confusion.\"The CBOE volatility index, also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, closed at 22.68, its highest finish since Nov. 18.Money market participants see a 91% chance that the Fed will increase its key benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December to 4.25%-4.50%, with rates peaking in May 2023 at 4.93%.The S&P 500 lost 7.34 points, or 0.19%, to close at 3,933.92 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 56.34 points, or 0.51%, to finish at 10,958.55. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat, ending on 33,597.92.Concerns about a steep rise in borrowing costs have boosted the dollar, but dented demand for risk assets such as equities this year. The S&P 500 is on track to snap a three-year winning streak.Three of the 11 major S&P sector indexes were higher, with healthcare one of them. Technology and communication services, down 0.5 and 0.9% respectively, were the worst performers.Energy fell for its fifth straight session. The sector's performance was weighed by U.S. crude prices falling again, settling at the lowest level in 2022, as concerns over the outlook for global growth wiped out all of the gains since Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the worst global energy supply crisis in decades.Carvana Co had its worst day as a public company, losing nearly half its stock value, after Wedbush downgraded the used-car retailer's stock to \"underperform\" from \"neutral\" and slashed its price target to $1.Meanwhile, United Airlines traded 4.1% lower. Unions representing various workers at the airline said they would join forces on contract negotiations.Travel-related stocks were generally down. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines Group were 4.4% and 5.4% lower respectively, with cruise line operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and accommodation-linked Airbnb Inc and Booking Holdings all falling between 1.7% and 4.4%.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.29 billion shares, compared with the 10.98 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.The S&P 500 posted seven new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 307 new lows. (Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas, Johann M Cherian and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":32,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581563418944392","authorId":"3581563418944392","name":"Andrewinho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3127e2bc40ab23064a5187a00a63e19b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581563418944392","authorIdStr":"3581563418944392"},"content":"Opportunity!! 🤭🤭🤭","text":"Opportunity!! 🤭🤭🤭","html":"Opportunity!! 🤭🤭🤭"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963614950,"gmtCreate":1668660488771,"gmtModify":1676538092917,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963614950","repostId":"2284813867","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284813867","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1668651244,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284813867?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-17 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple Is The Only FAANG Stock Worth Buying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284813867","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple is down 16%, yet it's the best FAANG(+) stock on the market, protecting investors against mayhem experienced in other growth stocks.Thanks to its advanced supply chains, successful produc","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Apple is down 16%, yet it&#39;s the best FAANG(+) stock on the market, protecting investors against mayhem experienced in other growth stocks.</li><li>Thanks to its advanced supply chains, successful products, and healthy balance sheet, Apple has pricing power, high and steady margins, and the ability to buy back shares.</li><li>While challenges persist, I am convinced that Apple remains the best tech stock to buy on any weakness. I believe that the downside is somewhat limited, with a strong upside.</li></ul><h2>Introduction</h2><p>Technically speaking, <b>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)</b> is the only company in my portfolio that is a member of the technology sector. While I tend to disagree with the definition of technology, I thought long and hard before buying technology in 2021. I wanted a company that brings both growth and value to the table. A company that offers a growing dividend and buybacks without giving up on its ability to outperform - after all, I&#39;m not looking to go overweight in high-yield investments. Apple offers all of this. While Apple is struggling this year, it is outperforming every other FAANG stock by a wide margin. This happens despite significant consumer weakness, lower business investments, and the fact that Apple&#39;s products are in the highest price range. In this article, I&#39;m going to dive into all of this and explain why I believe that Apple is a go-to stock for investors looking to buy high-quality growth exposure. This includes my strategy going forward, as we need to incorporate way more than Apple&#39;s ability to invent great products.</p><p>So, let&#39;s get to it!</p><h2>It&#39;s A Scary Business Environment</h2><p>The little brown area in the chart below displays my technology exposure. While I would make the case that several defense companies (industrials) in my portfolio are way more high-tech than most stocks in the technology sector, it is important to own stocks that perform better in a falling-rate environment. In other words, buying Apple was mainly based on diversification.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f9d99495363bbc24d79e1156a9f750\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><p>That said, I could have gone with a lot of technology stocks, yet I went with Apple. Going back twelve months, Apple is currently the only stock in positive territory. Note that I included Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), and Amazon (AMZN) as well. After all, FAANG has evolved a bit over the years.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07f8247f254110297bc0bfac6717d880\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Essentially, I liked the concept behind FAANG (or FAANG+, or FAANGMAN, or whatever you want to use) because it perfectly captured the bull market between the Great Financial Recession and the surge in inflation in 2021.</p><p>Federal Reserve interest rates were low, inflation was low, global QE programs fueled liquidity, and technological developments were fast. As the chart (from September 2022) below shows, interest rates were highly accommodative between 2009 and 2022. The only exception was the surge in rates after 2016, which allowed value stocks to briefly outperform growth stocks.<img src=\"https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/insights/images/2022/a-perspective-on-interest-rate-neutrality-fig03.jpg\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>CME Group</p><p>Essentially, accommodative rates mean that Fed policy rates are below long-term inflation expectations. What made the situation in the past decade so attractive is that long-term inflation rates were low - yet Fed rates were even lower.</p><p>Using the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation chart, which estimates the average inflation rate of the five years starting in five years, we see that estimates were close to 2.4% in the years after the Great Financial Crisis. After 2013, these rates moved lower, with consistent readings below 2%.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1237255f9b5395d3108c0bb1a248d09d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis</p><p>This makes growth stocks so attractive because discounting future growth is way more attractive when inflation expectations are low. After all, if you assume that inflation will accelerate, you probably prefer stocks that already generate high profits.</p><p>On top of that, central banks provided liquidity, which was more or less forced into FAANG stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6beb2ec686a4d7016eabca0c1eb5a6a5\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Yahoo Finance</p><p>In 2021, I bought Apple. Not because I expected this to continue, as I already had shifted to the thesis that value would outperform. I bought Apple for diversification and because I believed that Apple would outperform other growth stocks.</p><p>My thesis turned out to be correct. Inflation accelerated as a result of supply chain issues, commodity shortages, labor inflation, and fiscal and monetary stimulus of 2020 and 2021. Now, we&#39;re in a situation where inflation is still high, causing central banks to reverse everything they did before the crisis. Interest rates are surging, economic growth is suffering, and inflation is still high.</p><p>While I&#39;m writing this, the market expects the Fed to hike by 50 basis points in December, followed by two 25 basis points hikes in early 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3fcded5ac463d291451c666e5b7b6aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>CME Group</p><p>The risk is that inflation isn&#39;t coming down as fast as the market may expect, causing us to get a scenario comparable to the 1970s and 1980s, where supply-side-driven inflation caused the Fed to initiate a few aggressive hiking cycles. It caused economic growth to fluctuate.</p><p>Until inflation eased in the early 1980s, stocks went sideways for more than 20 years. I am not saying that this will happen again, however, I believe the risks of a prolonged sideways trend are very high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cd26580babd7b3bda3d1b3d4bb68190\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TradingView (S&amp;P 500)</p><p>Essentially, this would mean that we need to pour all of our money into (high) dividend-paying stocks. However, I&#39;m only changing my strategy a bit as I will continue to buy growth.</p><p>I won&#39;t buy money-losing growth stocks. I will use the next few years to buy more Apple shares at any opportunity I get, as I want to make this a large position in my portfolio.</p><p>After all, Apple combines the best of growth and value, causing it to remain the last FAANG standing - by a significant margin.</p><h2>Apple - Resilience When It Matters Most</h2><p>Let&#39;s continue with some more bad news. Apple isn&#39;t just a tech stock, it is also highly dependent on the health of the consumer. After all, 52% of its $394 billion net sales in FY2022 came from its iPhone (other products also depend on the consumer). Hence, one of the reasons why so many investors have not invested in Apple is the fact that the consumer is in a terrible spot. Using the University of Michigan numbers, the current financial situation of consumers in the United States hasn&#39;t been this low since 2010.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568283294349a80eb431b0cd4cd26fed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>University of Michigan</p><p>In Europe, the situation is even worse due to the energy crisis. In China, we&#39;re dealing with ongoing lockdowns (Zero COVID) that keep people from spending as much as they would under normal circumstances. On a side note, despite lockdowns, Apple grew sales by 9% in Greater China in FY2022. That beats European sales by 200 basis points! I expect these sales to rebound when China ends its Zero COVID policy in early 2023 (according to my sources).</p><p>Hence, now bad headlines are emerging. For example, Apple is now offering rare MacBook deals to accelerate its sales.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3c5dac3d8f0ae070f1e07e7fe3746df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"161\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>As reported by Bloomberg, the company is offering discounts of as much as 10%. Yet, it only impacts its M1-chip MacBooks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7efad2196ec5f443f7f7cc031f1e38\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>This is a measure aimed to boost sales and get rid of excess inventory ahead of MacBook upgrades in the first few months of 2023.</p><p>That&#39;s not everything. Weakness is also hitting the iPhone (as most already expected, given macroeconomic conditions). J.P. Morgan just came out, making the case that sales in the December quarter will decline year-on-year.</p><p>As reported by Seeking Alpha:</p><blockquote>Analyst Samik Chatterjee lowered his iPhone 14 estimates by 5M and other iPhone estimates by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMM\">3M</a> and now forecasts iPhone and total revenues to decline year-over-year during the period.</blockquote><blockquote>&#34;In relation to impact to [fiscal year 2023] estimates overall, the reduction to estimates are more modest as we expect part of the shipment shortfall in the December quarter to be made up in the March quarter, which typically being a lower production quarter will give Apple ample opportunities to recover the shortfall, and on the demand side based on historical precedent we expect limited to modest impact to consumer demand from delays and extended delivery times,&#34; Chatterjee wrote.</blockquote><p>I have to say that this news sounds worse than it is. For example, the iPhone has been strong until the December quarter. In its fourth quarter, the company grew iPhone sales by 10%. While this includes pricing, it&#39;s on top of 39% revenue growth in the prior-year quarter. That&#39;s better news than most give Apple credit for.</p><p>However, Apple was very reluctant when it comes to predicting what demand may look like - especially with regard to pricing issues and lower-cost competitors.</p><p>Tim Cook mentioned supply chain issues that kept the company from selling as many iPhones as it would have liked. Moreover, iPhone 14 demand is hard to estimate as Apple has introduced a number of new models (Max, Pro, you name it).</p><p>However, one of the reasons why I&#39;m not worried about competition is the fact that quality differences are a huge issue when looking for better prices. I&#39;ve spent the past four weeks figuring out what my new phone is going to be. I can go for a cheap option from a competitor. However, reviews are just terrible. When looking for a quality phone, there really isn&#39;t a cheap alternative to the iPhone anymore. Hence, people stay in the Apple ecosystem. Or, even better, people join the ecosystem. I&#39;ve had more friends and colleagues switch to Apple in the past 12 months than people leaving Apple - including a lot of penny pinchers.</p><p>Hence, I wasn&#39;t surprised that Tim Cook mentioned great results for the iPhone in all key regions:</p><blockquote>We were really pleased with the broadness of the iPhone strength last quarter. We had three of the top four smartphones in the U.S. and the UK, the top three in Urban China, the top six in Australia, four out of the top five in Germany and the top two in Japan. And customer satisfaction for the iPhone remains very, very strong at 98%.</blockquote><p>Moreover, in light of high inflation, Apple has maintained strong margins. Apple&#39;s operating margin has been consistently above 30.0% in the 2022 calendar year. Microsoft is strong as well. Companies like Netflix (NFLX), Meta (META), and Amazon have a much harder time dealing with inflation. Moreover, in most cases, demand weakness makes this even harder.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bab72c94b1eb7593597c5b76b716145\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>The key here is Apple&#39;s supply chain resilience. Like all companies, Apple did feel headwinds from the severe supply shortages (i.e., semiconductors) that started after the 2020 lockdowns. However, Apple is superior when it comes to supply chains.</p><p>Even way before the pandemic, Apple was known for its seamless supply chain operations. In 2019, I did my master&#39;s degree focused on supply chains. Tim Cook was a frequent topic of discussion.</p><p>As reported by Supply Chain Digital, it is no surprise that Steve Jobs made Tim Cook his successor. He&#39;s a supply chain guy, responsible for a big part of Apple&#39;s success.</p><blockquote>[...] it was Cook who had ensured Apple’s phenomenal growth by never allowing the supply of its products to be outstripped by demand, even when demand was stratospheric.</blockquote><blockquote>[...] Yet less than a year after Cook joined, Apple was reporting profits. As the visionary Jobs came up with one era-defining product after another, Cook made sure they were always available, and in huge numbers.</blockquote><blockquote>An early Cook ploy was to buy US$100mn of holiday season air freight, months in advance. This cut out competitors, and left them scrambling to ship products during the holiday season.</blockquote><blockquote>But he realised very early in his Apple career that the company’s supply chain was unwieldy, over-complex and unresponsive, and so he moved Apple to a just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing model - a process he had overseen in his time at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>.</blockquote><p>It&#39;s good to know there&#39;s an expert in charge (obviously) as Apple is now reconfiguring its supply chain. Apple will reduce its reliance on Asian markets as geopolitical and economic risks have caused an acceleration in supply changes after the pandemic.</p><p>Apple is now looking to source chips in the United States and Europe. As reported by Bloomberg:</p><blockquote>“We’ve already made a decision to be buying out of a plant in Arizona, and this plant in Arizona starts up in ’24, so we’ve got about two years ahead of us on that one, maybe a little less,” Cook told the employees. “And in Europe, I’m sure that we will also source from Europe as those plans become more apparent,” he said at the meeting, which included Apple services chief Eddy Cue and Deirdre O’Brien, its head of retail and human resources.</blockquote><p>In Arizona, Apple will have access to supply from the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), starting in 2024. Moreover, Intel (INTC) is building plants in Arizona, with a similar timeline. Yet, Apple won&#39;t likely become a customer as it has produced its own chips - as everyone is aware of by now.</p><h2>More Reasons Why Apple Isn&#39;t Selling Off</h2><p>So far, we have a few reasons. Despite imploding consumer sentiment, supply chain issues, and ongoing geopolitical issues (including Zero-COVID), Apple is standing strong. Its margins in FY2022 reached one of the highest levels ever, its iPhone continues to withstand fierce competition, and Apple further improved sales on top of tough comparisons in FY2021. All of this was provided by stellar supply chains.</p><p>When looking at the bigger picture, we see that margins are expected to come down a bit. However, both EBITDA and free cash flow are expected to remain in an uptrend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b4eab909778547491aa3fdd03828ff6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TIKR.com</p><p>In the current fiscal year (2023), the company is expected to generate $105 billion in free cash flow. This implies a 4.4% free cash flow yield, using its $2,400 billion market cap.</p><p>That&#39;s good news for investors as Apple is on a mission to get rid of its cash load.</p><p>In the September quarter, the company returned $29 billion to shareholders. $3.7 billion was distributed through dividends (sustaining its 0.6% yield). The remaining $25.2 billion was (indirectly) distributed through open market purchases of 160 million AAPL shares. Total distributions were roughly 1.2% of its market cap. On an annualized basis, that&#39;s 4.8%, allowing the company to distribute all of its incoming free cash flow and portions of its existing cash holdings.</p><p>The company ended the quarter with $169 billion in cash and marketable securities. The company repaid $2.8 billion in cash, decreased commercial paper by $1 billion, and issued $5.5 billion in new debt. Gross debt was $120 billion, indicating $49 billion in net cash (negative net debt).</p><p>Apple is looking to become net cash neutral over time, meaning the company will accelerate distributions not just in line with FCF growth, but a bit faster to distribute $49 billion in current net cash.</p><p>As a result, Apple is the only FAANG+ with substantial net share buybacks. None of the others bought back more than 10% of their shares outstanding.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb56d538436fae8a9b46ba8dcea409c5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>That is a huge deal as it artificially boosts earnings per share.</p><p>So, what about the valuation?</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Let&#39;s start with the worst news. The implied free cash flow yield isn&#39;t very high. Using LTM FCF, it&#39;s roughly at 5%. While it&#39;s off the lows, it is far below anything the market witnessed prior to global central banks turning accommodative in 2015. As I showed you at the start of this article, inflation expectations came down hard around 2015. It caused investors to apply a different valuation to Apple. Suddenly, a 10% FCF yield was way too high. Now, a 5% FCF yield may be too low, if we assume that inflation is here to stay...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f58624ab1429d3a7bba3937e94452ba\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Moreover, Apple is trading at 18.0x NTM EBITDA. That&#39;s based on its $2.4 trillion market cap and FY2023E net cash of $61 billion.</p><p>This valuation is well below its peak, yet not at extremely attractive levels. I believe that a valuation of 15-16x EBITDA is a good place to start buying more shares - or to initiate a position.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2073abe0c515422a8149c4fb7bdb21c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>So, let&#39;s summarize this article.</p><h2>Takeaway</h2><p>I went with a somewhat confrontational title. However, I think it&#39;s true. While Apple is down 16% year-to-date, the company has protected its investors against weakness that occurred in other tech stocks. Not only that, but by doing so, investors are still sitting on tremendous gains over the past few years as AAPL did not underperform during the last bull market.</p><p>I also went with this title because I believe that Apple is the best FAANG+ stock going forward. I do not expect the market environment to suddenly turn accommodative of growth stocks. While supply chain issues are easing, above-average inflation is likely to persist. Central banks will continue to be forced to solve this, which could lead to multiple hiking cycles down the road.</p><p>My strategy is to continue buying Apple on any major weakness. While the company may refrain from rallying as it did prior to 2022, we&#39;re dealing with - what I believe - is the best FAANG stock on the market. The company has exceptional supply chain management, products able to withstand tough competition, and allowing the company to use pricing to offset inflationary headwinds.</p><p>On top of that, it has an AA+ balance sheet, allowing management to aggressively buy back shares, boosting EPS at a time when it matters most.</p><p>In summary, AAPL is a tech stock that lets me sleep well at night, knowing I own the best mix between growth and value.</p><p>So, if you&#39;re looking for tech exposure, I believe that AAPL is the way to go. Especially in light of ongoing and expected macroeconomic developments.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple Is The Only FAANG Stock Worth Buying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple Is The Only FAANG Stock Worth Buying\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-17 10:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558460-why-apple-is-the-only-faang-stock-worth-buying><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple is down 16%, yet it's the best FAANG(+) stock on the market, protecting investors against mayhem experienced in other growth stocks.Thanks to its advanced supply chains, successful ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558460-why-apple-is-the-only-faang-stock-worth-buying\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558460-why-apple-is-the-only-faang-stock-worth-buying","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284813867","content_text":"SummaryApple is down 16%, yet it's the best FAANG(+) stock on the market, protecting investors against mayhem experienced in other growth stocks.Thanks to its advanced supply chains, successful products, and healthy balance sheet, Apple has pricing power, high and steady margins, and the ability to buy back shares.While challenges persist, I am convinced that Apple remains the best tech stock to buy on any weakness. I believe that the downside is somewhat limited, with a strong upside.IntroductionTechnically speaking, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is the only company in my portfolio that is a member of the technology sector. While I tend to disagree with the definition of technology, I thought long and hard before buying technology in 2021. I wanted a company that brings both growth and value to the table. A company that offers a growing dividend and buybacks without giving up on its ability to outperform - after all, I'm not looking to go overweight in high-yield investments. Apple offers all of this. While Apple is struggling this year, it is outperforming every other FAANG stock by a wide margin. This happens despite significant consumer weakness, lower business investments, and the fact that Apple's products are in the highest price range. In this article, I'm going to dive into all of this and explain why I believe that Apple is a go-to stock for investors looking to buy high-quality growth exposure. This includes my strategy going forward, as we need to incorporate way more than Apple's ability to invent great products.So, let's get to it!It's A Scary Business EnvironmentThe little brown area in the chart below displays my technology exposure. While I would make the case that several defense companies (industrials) in my portfolio are way more high-tech than most stocks in the technology sector, it is important to own stocks that perform better in a falling-rate environment. In other words, buying Apple was mainly based on diversification.AuthorThat said, I could have gone with a lot of technology stocks, yet I went with Apple. Going back twelve months, Apple is currently the only stock in positive territory. Note that I included Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), and Amazon (AMZN) as well. After all, FAANG has evolved a bit over the years.Data by YChartsEssentially, I liked the concept behind FAANG (or FAANG+, or FAANGMAN, or whatever you want to use) because it perfectly captured the bull market between the Great Financial Recession and the surge in inflation in 2021.Federal Reserve interest rates were low, inflation was low, global QE programs fueled liquidity, and technological developments were fast. As the chart (from September 2022) below shows, interest rates were highly accommodative between 2009 and 2022. The only exception was the surge in rates after 2016, which allowed value stocks to briefly outperform growth stocks.CME GroupEssentially, accommodative rates mean that Fed policy rates are below long-term inflation expectations. What made the situation in the past decade so attractive is that long-term inflation rates were low - yet Fed rates were even lower.Using the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation chart, which estimates the average inflation rate of the five years starting in five years, we see that estimates were close to 2.4% in the years after the Great Financial Crisis. After 2013, these rates moved lower, with consistent readings below 2%.Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThis makes growth stocks so attractive because discounting future growth is way more attractive when inflation expectations are low. After all, if you assume that inflation will accelerate, you probably prefer stocks that already generate high profits.On top of that, central banks provided liquidity, which was more or less forced into FAANG stocks.Yahoo FinanceIn 2021, I bought Apple. Not because I expected this to continue, as I already had shifted to the thesis that value would outperform. I bought Apple for diversification and because I believed that Apple would outperform other growth stocks.My thesis turned out to be correct. Inflation accelerated as a result of supply chain issues, commodity shortages, labor inflation, and fiscal and monetary stimulus of 2020 and 2021. Now, we're in a situation where inflation is still high, causing central banks to reverse everything they did before the crisis. Interest rates are surging, economic growth is suffering, and inflation is still high.While I'm writing this, the market expects the Fed to hike by 50 basis points in December, followed by two 25 basis points hikes in early 2023.CME GroupThe risk is that inflation isn't coming down as fast as the market may expect, causing us to get a scenario comparable to the 1970s and 1980s, where supply-side-driven inflation caused the Fed to initiate a few aggressive hiking cycles. It caused economic growth to fluctuate.Until inflation eased in the early 1980s, stocks went sideways for more than 20 years. I am not saying that this will happen again, however, I believe the risks of a prolonged sideways trend are very high.TradingView (S&P 500)Essentially, this would mean that we need to pour all of our money into (high) dividend-paying stocks. However, I'm only changing my strategy a bit as I will continue to buy growth.I won't buy money-losing growth stocks. I will use the next few years to buy more Apple shares at any opportunity I get, as I want to make this a large position in my portfolio.After all, Apple combines the best of growth and value, causing it to remain the last FAANG standing - by a significant margin.Apple - Resilience When It Matters MostLet's continue with some more bad news. Apple isn't just a tech stock, it is also highly dependent on the health of the consumer. After all, 52% of its $394 billion net sales in FY2022 came from its iPhone (other products also depend on the consumer). Hence, one of the reasons why so many investors have not invested in Apple is the fact that the consumer is in a terrible spot. Using the University of Michigan numbers, the current financial situation of consumers in the United States hasn't been this low since 2010.University of MichiganIn Europe, the situation is even worse due to the energy crisis. In China, we're dealing with ongoing lockdowns (Zero COVID) that keep people from spending as much as they would under normal circumstances. On a side note, despite lockdowns, Apple grew sales by 9% in Greater China in FY2022. That beats European sales by 200 basis points! I expect these sales to rebound when China ends its Zero COVID policy in early 2023 (according to my sources).Hence, now bad headlines are emerging. For example, Apple is now offering rare MacBook deals to accelerate its sales.BloombergAs reported by Bloomberg, the company is offering discounts of as much as 10%. Yet, it only impacts its M1-chip MacBooks.BloombergThis is a measure aimed to boost sales and get rid of excess inventory ahead of MacBook upgrades in the first few months of 2023.That's not everything. Weakness is also hitting the iPhone (as most already expected, given macroeconomic conditions). J.P. Morgan just came out, making the case that sales in the December quarter will decline year-on-year.As reported by Seeking Alpha:Analyst Samik Chatterjee lowered his iPhone 14 estimates by 5M and other iPhone estimates by 3M and now forecasts iPhone and total revenues to decline year-over-year during the period.\"In relation to impact to [fiscal year 2023] estimates overall, the reduction to estimates are more modest as we expect part of the shipment shortfall in the December quarter to be made up in the March quarter, which typically being a lower production quarter will give Apple ample opportunities to recover the shortfall, and on the demand side based on historical precedent we expect limited to modest impact to consumer demand from delays and extended delivery times,\" Chatterjee wrote.I have to say that this news sounds worse than it is. For example, the iPhone has been strong until the December quarter. In its fourth quarter, the company grew iPhone sales by 10%. While this includes pricing, it's on top of 39% revenue growth in the prior-year quarter. That's better news than most give Apple credit for.However, Apple was very reluctant when it comes to predicting what demand may look like - especially with regard to pricing issues and lower-cost competitors.Tim Cook mentioned supply chain issues that kept the company from selling as many iPhones as it would have liked. Moreover, iPhone 14 demand is hard to estimate as Apple has introduced a number of new models (Max, Pro, you name it).However, one of the reasons why I'm not worried about competition is the fact that quality differences are a huge issue when looking for better prices. I've spent the past four weeks figuring out what my new phone is going to be. I can go for a cheap option from a competitor. However, reviews are just terrible. When looking for a quality phone, there really isn't a cheap alternative to the iPhone anymore. Hence, people stay in the Apple ecosystem. Or, even better, people join the ecosystem. I've had more friends and colleagues switch to Apple in the past 12 months than people leaving Apple - including a lot of penny pinchers.Hence, I wasn't surprised that Tim Cook mentioned great results for the iPhone in all key regions:We were really pleased with the broadness of the iPhone strength last quarter. We had three of the top four smartphones in the U.S. and the UK, the top three in Urban China, the top six in Australia, four out of the top five in Germany and the top two in Japan. And customer satisfaction for the iPhone remains very, very strong at 98%.Moreover, in light of high inflation, Apple has maintained strong margins. Apple's operating margin has been consistently above 30.0% in the 2022 calendar year. Microsoft is strong as well. Companies like Netflix (NFLX), Meta (META), and Amazon have a much harder time dealing with inflation. Moreover, in most cases, demand weakness makes this even harder.Data by YChartsThe key here is Apple's supply chain resilience. Like all companies, Apple did feel headwinds from the severe supply shortages (i.e., semiconductors) that started after the 2020 lockdowns. However, Apple is superior when it comes to supply chains.Even way before the pandemic, Apple was known for its seamless supply chain operations. In 2019, I did my master's degree focused on supply chains. Tim Cook was a frequent topic of discussion.As reported by Supply Chain Digital, it is no surprise that Steve Jobs made Tim Cook his successor. He's a supply chain guy, responsible for a big part of Apple's success.[...] it was Cook who had ensured Apple’s phenomenal growth by never allowing the supply of its products to be outstripped by demand, even when demand was stratospheric.[...] Yet less than a year after Cook joined, Apple was reporting profits. As the visionary Jobs came up with one era-defining product after another, Cook made sure they were always available, and in huge numbers.An early Cook ploy was to buy US$100mn of holiday season air freight, months in advance. This cut out competitors, and left them scrambling to ship products during the holiday season.But he realised very early in his Apple career that the company’s supply chain was unwieldy, over-complex and unresponsive, and so he moved Apple to a just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing model - a process he had overseen in his time at IBM.It's good to know there's an expert in charge (obviously) as Apple is now reconfiguring its supply chain. Apple will reduce its reliance on Asian markets as geopolitical and economic risks have caused an acceleration in supply changes after the pandemic.Apple is now looking to source chips in the United States and Europe. As reported by Bloomberg:“We’ve already made a decision to be buying out of a plant in Arizona, and this plant in Arizona starts up in ’24, so we’ve got about two years ahead of us on that one, maybe a little less,” Cook told the employees. “And in Europe, I’m sure that we will also source from Europe as those plans become more apparent,” he said at the meeting, which included Apple services chief Eddy Cue and Deirdre O’Brien, its head of retail and human resources.In Arizona, Apple will have access to supply from the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), starting in 2024. Moreover, Intel (INTC) is building plants in Arizona, with a similar timeline. Yet, Apple won't likely become a customer as it has produced its own chips - as everyone is aware of by now.More Reasons Why Apple Isn't Selling OffSo far, we have a few reasons. Despite imploding consumer sentiment, supply chain issues, and ongoing geopolitical issues (including Zero-COVID), Apple is standing strong. Its margins in FY2022 reached one of the highest levels ever, its iPhone continues to withstand fierce competition, and Apple further improved sales on top of tough comparisons in FY2021. All of this was provided by stellar supply chains.When looking at the bigger picture, we see that margins are expected to come down a bit. However, both EBITDA and free cash flow are expected to remain in an uptrend.TIKR.comIn the current fiscal year (2023), the company is expected to generate $105 billion in free cash flow. This implies a 4.4% free cash flow yield, using its $2,400 billion market cap.That's good news for investors as Apple is on a mission to get rid of its cash load.In the September quarter, the company returned $29 billion to shareholders. $3.7 billion was distributed through dividends (sustaining its 0.6% yield). The remaining $25.2 billion was (indirectly) distributed through open market purchases of 160 million AAPL shares. Total distributions were roughly 1.2% of its market cap. On an annualized basis, that's 4.8%, allowing the company to distribute all of its incoming free cash flow and portions of its existing cash holdings.The company ended the quarter with $169 billion in cash and marketable securities. The company repaid $2.8 billion in cash, decreased commercial paper by $1 billion, and issued $5.5 billion in new debt. Gross debt was $120 billion, indicating $49 billion in net cash (negative net debt).Apple is looking to become net cash neutral over time, meaning the company will accelerate distributions not just in line with FCF growth, but a bit faster to distribute $49 billion in current net cash.As a result, Apple is the only FAANG+ with substantial net share buybacks. None of the others bought back more than 10% of their shares outstanding.Data by YChartsThat is a huge deal as it artificially boosts earnings per share.So, what about the valuation?ValuationLet's start with the worst news. The implied free cash flow yield isn't very high. Using LTM FCF, it's roughly at 5%. While it's off the lows, it is far below anything the market witnessed prior to global central banks turning accommodative in 2015. As I showed you at the start of this article, inflation expectations came down hard around 2015. It caused investors to apply a different valuation to Apple. Suddenly, a 10% FCF yield was way too high. Now, a 5% FCF yield may be too low, if we assume that inflation is here to stay...Data by YChartsMoreover, Apple is trading at 18.0x NTM EBITDA. That's based on its $2.4 trillion market cap and FY2023E net cash of $61 billion.This valuation is well below its peak, yet not at extremely attractive levels. I believe that a valuation of 15-16x EBITDA is a good place to start buying more shares - or to initiate a position.Data by YChartsSo, let's summarize this article.TakeawayI went with a somewhat confrontational title. However, I think it's true. While Apple is down 16% year-to-date, the company has protected its investors against weakness that occurred in other tech stocks. Not only that, but by doing so, investors are still sitting on tremendous gains over the past few years as AAPL did not underperform during the last bull market.I also went with this title because I believe that Apple is the best FAANG+ stock going forward. I do not expect the market environment to suddenly turn accommodative of growth stocks. While supply chain issues are easing, above-average inflation is likely to persist. Central banks will continue to be forced to solve this, which could lead to multiple hiking cycles down the road.My strategy is to continue buying Apple on any major weakness. While the company may refrain from rallying as it did prior to 2022, we're dealing with - what I believe - is the best FAANG stock on the market. The company has exceptional supply chain management, products able to withstand tough competition, and allowing the company to use pricing to offset inflationary headwinds.On top of that, it has an AA+ balance sheet, allowing management to aggressively buy back shares, boosting EPS at a time when it matters most.In summary, AAPL is a tech stock that lets me sleep well at night, knowing I own the best mix between growth and value.So, if you're looking for tech exposure, I believe that AAPL is the way to go. Especially in light of ongoing and expected macroeconomic developments.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963046658,"gmtCreate":1668558548874,"gmtModify":1676538075173,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963046658","repostId":"1160332041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160332041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668576951,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160332041?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-16 13:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What If the Fed’s Own Forecasts Are Wrong?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160332041","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s summary of Economic Projections in September doesn’t anticipate a recession in","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve’s summary of Economic Projections in September doesn’t anticipate a recession in the next three years. And Chair Jerome Powell still seems to think that a soft landing for the economy is possible. In my view, however, a US recession is highly likely in the next 12 to 18 months. Why don’t I share the Fed’s optimism?</p><p>The projections by the Fed governors will always paint a rosy picture. They’re instructed to condition their view on an optimal monetary policy, which obviously makes better outcomes achievable. In the real world, as has been demonstrated over the past year, policy is often far from that ideal, so actual results will usually be worse than implied by the projections.</p><p>In the same vein, the Fed model that underpins its staff forecast contains assumptions that contribute to more pleasant forecasts. They include that the Fed will pursue the optimal monetary policy path in the future (regardless of past errors) and that households and businesses know this.</p><p>These assumptions rule out persistent monetary policy errors or the loss of confidence by households and businesses in the Fed’s commitment and ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives.</p><p>The Fed also operates in a world where there’s an important political economy constraint. Admitting that a recession would be required to get inflation in check might undercut public support for a tighter monetary policy. It also could subject the Fed to criticism that might ultimately undermine its independence or cause Congress to limit its authority in the future. Sugarcoating the cost of what the Fed needs to do may be viewed as a necessary evil so it can carry out its mission successfully. But it also runs the risk of undercutting the Fed’s credibility.</p><p>Why do I believe a recession is unavoidable? To start, the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% annual rate target. Powell made it clear in his remarks at the Jackson Hole conference in August that this goal was “unconditional” and reiterated his commitment at his September news conference. Failure is an unattractive option because inflation expectations would rise, necessitating a harsher monetary policy and worse outcomes later.</p><p>To bring inflation to 2%, the Federal Open Market Committee will have to push up the unemployment rate substantially. The labor market is much too tight to be consistent with a stable or declining underlying inflation rate.</p><p>Judging from the relationship between unfilled job openings and the number of people who are unemployed, known as the Beveridge curve, the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation has risen considerably and could be as high as 5%, well above the current rate of 3.7%. Even if the Beveridge curve were to shift back down because labor market frictions abated, the unemployment rate would still need to rise to at least 4.5%.</p><p>During the postwar period, every time the unemployment rate has risen by 0.5 percentage point or more, the US economy has fallen into recession. This empirical regularity is memorialized as the Sahm rule. The difficulty of engineering a soft landing is underscored by the fact that there are no examples of an unemployment rate rising between 0.5 and 2 percentage points from trough to peak at all. Once the unemployment rate has moved up modestly, it’s hard to stop. Thus, the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections in September in which unemployment rises to 4.4% from its recent trough of 3.5% would be unprecedented.</p><p>The episodes Powell has cited of successful soft landings—in 1965-66, 1984-85, and 1993-95—don’t apply to the current set of circumstances. In those cases, the Fed tightened and that slowed the pace of economic growth and the decline in the unemployment rate, but in none of those episodes did the Fed tighten sufficiently to push the unemployment rate up. In Fed parlance, these soft landings were achieved from above, by slowing the economy to a sustainable growth rate, rather than from below, by slowing the economy sufficiently to push the unemployment rate up.</p><p>Fed risk management will also increase the likelihood of recession. Powell has made it clear that the consequences of failing to bring inflation back down to 2% on a sustainable basis are unacceptable. The lesson of the 1970s is that failure would lead to unanchored inflation expectations, making the job of restoring price stability that much more difficult.</p><p>In addition, the Fed’s task will be made difficult by uncertainty about whether it has done enough. How high do short-term interest rates need to go to push the unemployment rate above the rate consistent with stable inflation? How long does such an unemployment rate need to be elevated to bring inflation back down to 2%? Because, at the margin, the negative consequences of doing too little exceed the negative consequences of doing too much, this means that monetary policy will likely ultimately be kept too tight for too long. The long and variable lags between changes in the stance of monetary policy and its effect on economic activity reinforce this.</p><p>Some argue—including Fed officials—that a soft landing is still possible:</p><p>• As supply chain disruptions dissipate and the allocation of demand between goods and services normalizes, headline inflation will fall sharply.</p><p>• Labor supply will increase as labor force participation rises.</p><p>• Fed tightening can reduce the excess demand for labor without generating a large rise in unemployment.</p><p>Although one can’t dismiss these points out of hand, I’m afraid they’re likely to prove insufficient to avoid a hard landing.</p><p>First, even if declining goods prices cause headline inflation to fall sharply in the year ahead, that doesn’t deal with the fact that the inflation problem has broadened out, into services prices and wages.</p><p>The breadth of inflationary pressures is visible in the median consumer price index calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the trimmed mean personal consumption expenditures deflator—an alternative inflation measure calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas—with increases of 7% and 4.7%, respectively, over the past year. Those numbers capture what’s happening for those goods and services in the middle of the inflation distribution.</p><p>Similarly, the trend of wage inflation is well above a rate consistent with 2% inflation. For example, the employment cost index for the wages and salaries of private industry workers has gone up 5.2% over the past year, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s wage tracker index is rising at a 6.4% annual rate. Given the trend of labor productivity, wage inflation needs to be in a 3%-to-4% range to be consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation objective.</p><p>Second, on the labor supply front, the Fed is unlikely to be bailed out by a large increase in labor force participation. As labor economist Stephanie Aaronson noted in her remarks at this year’s Fed Jackson Hole conference: “The unemployment rate is the best gauge of the state of the business cycle.” Although a tight labor market can be expected to provoke a rise in labor force participation, she said, the process is a slow-moving one, playing out over several years, too slow a process to rescue the Fed.</p><p>Third, the notion that the Fed’s monetary policy stringency can be oriented toward reducing the excess demand for labor without driving up unemployment materially is wishful thinking. Monetary policy can’t be targeted in such a way to reduce the demand for labor in industries where demand is excessive relative to industries where labor supply and demand is in better balance. It’s a blunt tool that affects the economy broadly through its impact on financial conditions.</p><p>Although a soft landing would obviously be preferable, that ship has sailed. Today, a recession is virtually inevitable.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What If the Fed’s Own Forecasts Are Wrong?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat If the Fed’s Own Forecasts Are Wrong?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-16 13:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-s-own-forecasts-are-wrong?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s summary of Economic Projections in September doesn’t anticipate a recession in the next three years. And Chair Jerome Powell still seems to think that a soft landing for the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-s-own-forecasts-are-wrong?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-s-own-forecasts-are-wrong?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160332041","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s summary of Economic Projections in September doesn’t anticipate a recession in the next three years. And Chair Jerome Powell still seems to think that a soft landing for the economy is possible. In my view, however, a US recession is highly likely in the next 12 to 18 months. Why don’t I share the Fed’s optimism?The projections by the Fed governors will always paint a rosy picture. They’re instructed to condition their view on an optimal monetary policy, which obviously makes better outcomes achievable. In the real world, as has been demonstrated over the past year, policy is often far from that ideal, so actual results will usually be worse than implied by the projections.In the same vein, the Fed model that underpins its staff forecast contains assumptions that contribute to more pleasant forecasts. They include that the Fed will pursue the optimal monetary policy path in the future (regardless of past errors) and that households and businesses know this.These assumptions rule out persistent monetary policy errors or the loss of confidence by households and businesses in the Fed’s commitment and ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives.The Fed also operates in a world where there’s an important political economy constraint. Admitting that a recession would be required to get inflation in check might undercut public support for a tighter monetary policy. It also could subject the Fed to criticism that might ultimately undermine its independence or cause Congress to limit its authority in the future. Sugarcoating the cost of what the Fed needs to do may be viewed as a necessary evil so it can carry out its mission successfully. But it also runs the risk of undercutting the Fed’s credibility.Why do I believe a recession is unavoidable? To start, the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% annual rate target. Powell made it clear in his remarks at the Jackson Hole conference in August that this goal was “unconditional” and reiterated his commitment at his September news conference. Failure is an unattractive option because inflation expectations would rise, necessitating a harsher monetary policy and worse outcomes later.To bring inflation to 2%, the Federal Open Market Committee will have to push up the unemployment rate substantially. The labor market is much too tight to be consistent with a stable or declining underlying inflation rate.Judging from the relationship between unfilled job openings and the number of people who are unemployed, known as the Beveridge curve, the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation has risen considerably and could be as high as 5%, well above the current rate of 3.7%. Even if the Beveridge curve were to shift back down because labor market frictions abated, the unemployment rate would still need to rise to at least 4.5%.During the postwar period, every time the unemployment rate has risen by 0.5 percentage point or more, the US economy has fallen into recession. This empirical regularity is memorialized as the Sahm rule. The difficulty of engineering a soft landing is underscored by the fact that there are no examples of an unemployment rate rising between 0.5 and 2 percentage points from trough to peak at all. Once the unemployment rate has moved up modestly, it’s hard to stop. Thus, the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections in September in which unemployment rises to 4.4% from its recent trough of 3.5% would be unprecedented.The episodes Powell has cited of successful soft landings—in 1965-66, 1984-85, and 1993-95—don’t apply to the current set of circumstances. In those cases, the Fed tightened and that slowed the pace of economic growth and the decline in the unemployment rate, but in none of those episodes did the Fed tighten sufficiently to push the unemployment rate up. In Fed parlance, these soft landings were achieved from above, by slowing the economy to a sustainable growth rate, rather than from below, by slowing the economy sufficiently to push the unemployment rate up.Fed risk management will also increase the likelihood of recession. Powell has made it clear that the consequences of failing to bring inflation back down to 2% on a sustainable basis are unacceptable. The lesson of the 1970s is that failure would lead to unanchored inflation expectations, making the job of restoring price stability that much more difficult.In addition, the Fed’s task will be made difficult by uncertainty about whether it has done enough. How high do short-term interest rates need to go to push the unemployment rate above the rate consistent with stable inflation? How long does such an unemployment rate need to be elevated to bring inflation back down to 2%? Because, at the margin, the negative consequences of doing too little exceed the negative consequences of doing too much, this means that monetary policy will likely ultimately be kept too tight for too long. The long and variable lags between changes in the stance of monetary policy and its effect on economic activity reinforce this.Some argue—including Fed officials—that a soft landing is still possible:• As supply chain disruptions dissipate and the allocation of demand between goods and services normalizes, headline inflation will fall sharply.• Labor supply will increase as labor force participation rises.• Fed tightening can reduce the excess demand for labor without generating a large rise in unemployment.Although one can’t dismiss these points out of hand, I’m afraid they’re likely to prove insufficient to avoid a hard landing.First, even if declining goods prices cause headline inflation to fall sharply in the year ahead, that doesn’t deal with the fact that the inflation problem has broadened out, into services prices and wages.The breadth of inflationary pressures is visible in the median consumer price index calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the trimmed mean personal consumption expenditures deflator—an alternative inflation measure calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas—with increases of 7% and 4.7%, respectively, over the past year. Those numbers capture what’s happening for those goods and services in the middle of the inflation distribution.Similarly, the trend of wage inflation is well above a rate consistent with 2% inflation. For example, the employment cost index for the wages and salaries of private industry workers has gone up 5.2% over the past year, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s wage tracker index is rising at a 6.4% annual rate. Given the trend of labor productivity, wage inflation needs to be in a 3%-to-4% range to be consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation objective.Second, on the labor supply front, the Fed is unlikely to be bailed out by a large increase in labor force participation. As labor economist Stephanie Aaronson noted in her remarks at this year’s Fed Jackson Hole conference: “The unemployment rate is the best gauge of the state of the business cycle.” Although a tight labor market can be expected to provoke a rise in labor force participation, she said, the process is a slow-moving one, playing out over several years, too slow a process to rescue the Fed.Third, the notion that the Fed’s monetary policy stringency can be oriented toward reducing the excess demand for labor without driving up unemployment materially is wishful thinking. Monetary policy can’t be targeted in such a way to reduce the demand for labor in industries where demand is excessive relative to industries where labor supply and demand is in better balance. It’s a blunt tool that affects the economy broadly through its impact on financial conditions.Although a soft landing would obviously be preferable, that ship has sailed. Today, a recession is virtually inevitable.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910896282,"gmtCreate":1663590992446,"gmtModify":1676537296854,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910896282","repostId":"2267651314","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2267651314","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663581480,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2267651314?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 17:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to Expect From the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2267651314","media":"NerdWallet","summary":"The Fed's next rate decision is due by Sept. 21. Here’s what financial experts say it could mean for","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Fed&#39;s next rate decision is due by Sept. 21. Here’s what financial experts say it could mean for markets and investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d599bbb5d3059e0a59aa316765eaad6f\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Federal Reserve’s job hasn’t been easy amid this year’s economic volatility.</p><p>The Consumer Price Index, a key inflation gauge, rose 8.3% year over year in August — well over the Fed’s 2% target. The stock market hasn’t been well-behaved either: The S&amp;P 500 index is down by more than 10% so far this year.</p><p>The Federal Open Market Committee is due to meet Sept. 20-21, when it will decide whether to raise interest rates for the fifth time this year — and by how much.</p><p>Here’s what economists and a financial planner have to say about what’s going into the decision, how the stock market might react, and what it means for long-term investors.</p><h2>Why is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates?</h2><p>In short, the Fed is considering raising interest rates again to reduce inflation. But it’s trying to do so in a way that doesn’t burden consumers and businesses.</p><p>According to Terrance Grieb, a professor of finance at the University of Idaho, the Federal Reserve’s operations follow a dual mandate. Its two responsibilities are “to provide price stability within the economy, and also to provide a healthy job market.”</p><p>“What they’re trying to do is set interest rates — which are a key component of monetary policy — in order to balance those two things against each other,” he says.</p><p>The federal funds rate, which is guided by the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, is the interest rate at which banks can borrow money from each other.</p><p>Banks earn profits by borrowing money at a low interest rate and then lending it out to customers at a higher rate. Changes to the federal funds rate trickle down through the banking system, influencing interest rates on a variety of things, including mortgages and bonds.</p><p>Higher interest rates decrease spending by making it more expensive to borrow money. That decreases demand for goods and services throughout the economy, then slows down the price increases that we call inflation.</p><p>But when the Fed raises interest rates, it also runs the risk of hurting the economy — and the stock market in particular — by slowing down spending too much.</p><p>“Corporations borrow a lot of money every day to run their businesses, and when it costs them more money to borrow, it means their profits go down. And if their profits go down, then their stock is not as attractive,” says Delia Fernandez, a Los Alamitos, California-based certified financial planner with Fernandez Financial Advisory.</p><h2>What are markets expecting from the next meeting?</h2><p>“The markets are clearly expecting a 0.75% increase in [the Fed’s] target for the federal funds rate,” says Grieb. He explains that stock market valuations can act as a predictor of future rates and that the current level of the S&amp;P 500 and similar indexes points toward a 0.75% increase.</p><p>“If we saw a 1% rise or 1.25%, I think the markets would react very badly to that. We would see stock prices decrease. And vice versa — if it were only 0.5%, the markets would react very strongly,” he says.</p><p>Grieb says that any decision other than a 0.75% rate increase would be a surprise — but that a higher increase might be slightly less of a shock than a lower one.</p><p>“Chairman [Jerome] Powell has been pretty clear that they feel the need to be aggressive about this,” Grieb says of the Federal Reserve chair.</p><p>Keith Jakob, a professor of finance at the University of Montana, says that if rates go up by the expected 0.75%, the market reaction may be driven by what the Fed says about expectations for the next FOMC meeting in early November.</p><p>If the Fed hints that more increases are ahead, that could push markets down. But if it doesn&#39;t, markets could rise.</p><p>“If they say, ‘Yeah, we’re doing 0.75% but we think that’s enough,’ that maybe would lead to the market saying, ‘OK, let’s have a relief rally because we think they’re finished raising rates,’” Jakob says.</p><h2>How do the August inflation numbers affect the decision?</h2><p>On Sept. 13, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation numbers for the month of August that were higher than economists’ expectations. In response, the S&amp;P 500 and other major stock indexes fell by several percentage points.</p><p>“There was a grain of hope in the markets that inflation was going to start cooling more quickly,” Grieb says. That might have given the Fed the opportunity to be more gentle with its interest rate increases.</p><p>But Grieb says that the higher-than-anticipated inflation numbers show that “the Fed will have to stick to its guns,” with an aggressive course of interest rate increases in the near future — hence the negative stock market reaction.</p><p>“The markets are realizing that the aggressive path the Fed has laid out — they don’t have much room to adjust that,” he says.</p><h2>Should long-term investors pay attention to Fed interest rate policy?</h2><p>Fernandez says no.</p><p>“They should ignore the news, they should ignore the ups and downs, they should know that they’re in it for the long term,” she says.</p><p>Ideally, Fernandez says, investors should be making small, but frequent contributions to their investment accounts over time (for example, a set amount from each paycheck).</p><p>This approach, which is called dollar-cost averaging, can help them buy into investments at lower prices during periods of turmoil.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1663581368258","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to Expect From the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to Expect From the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-19 17:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/what-to-expect-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision><strong>NerdWallet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Fed's next rate decision is due by Sept. 21. Here’s what financial experts say it could mean for markets and investors.The Federal Reserve’s job hasn’t been easy amid this year’s economic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/what-to-expect-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/what-to-expect-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2267651314","content_text":"The Fed's next rate decision is due by Sept. 21. Here’s what financial experts say it could mean for markets and investors.The Federal Reserve’s job hasn’t been easy amid this year’s economic volatility.The Consumer Price Index, a key inflation gauge, rose 8.3% year over year in August — well over the Fed’s 2% target. The stock market hasn’t been well-behaved either: The S&P 500 index is down by more than 10% so far this year.The Federal Open Market Committee is due to meet Sept. 20-21, when it will decide whether to raise interest rates for the fifth time this year — and by how much.Here’s what economists and a financial planner have to say about what’s going into the decision, how the stock market might react, and what it means for long-term investors.Why is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates?In short, the Fed is considering raising interest rates again to reduce inflation. But it’s trying to do so in a way that doesn’t burden consumers and businesses.According to Terrance Grieb, a professor of finance at the University of Idaho, the Federal Reserve’s operations follow a dual mandate. Its two responsibilities are “to provide price stability within the economy, and also to provide a healthy job market.”“What they’re trying to do is set interest rates — which are a key component of monetary policy — in order to balance those two things against each other,” he says.The federal funds rate, which is guided by the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, is the interest rate at which banks can borrow money from each other.Banks earn profits by borrowing money at a low interest rate and then lending it out to customers at a higher rate. Changes to the federal funds rate trickle down through the banking system, influencing interest rates on a variety of things, including mortgages and bonds.Higher interest rates decrease spending by making it more expensive to borrow money. That decreases demand for goods and services throughout the economy, then slows down the price increases that we call inflation.But when the Fed raises interest rates, it also runs the risk of hurting the economy — and the stock market in particular — by slowing down spending too much.“Corporations borrow a lot of money every day to run their businesses, and when it costs them more money to borrow, it means their profits go down. And if their profits go down, then their stock is not as attractive,” says Delia Fernandez, a Los Alamitos, California-based certified financial planner with Fernandez Financial Advisory.What are markets expecting from the next meeting?“The markets are clearly expecting a 0.75% increase in [the Fed’s] target for the federal funds rate,” says Grieb. He explains that stock market valuations can act as a predictor of future rates and that the current level of the S&P 500 and similar indexes points toward a 0.75% increase.“If we saw a 1% rise or 1.25%, I think the markets would react very badly to that. We would see stock prices decrease. And vice versa — if it were only 0.5%, the markets would react very strongly,” he says.Grieb says that any decision other than a 0.75% rate increase would be a surprise — but that a higher increase might be slightly less of a shock than a lower one.“Chairman [Jerome] Powell has been pretty clear that they feel the need to be aggressive about this,” Grieb says of the Federal Reserve chair.Keith Jakob, a professor of finance at the University of Montana, says that if rates go up by the expected 0.75%, the market reaction may be driven by what the Fed says about expectations for the next FOMC meeting in early November.If the Fed hints that more increases are ahead, that could push markets down. But if it doesn't, markets could rise.“If they say, ‘Yeah, we’re doing 0.75% but we think that’s enough,’ that maybe would lead to the market saying, ‘OK, let’s have a relief rally because we think they’re finished raising rates,’” Jakob says.How do the August inflation numbers affect the decision?On Sept. 13, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation numbers for the month of August that were higher than economists’ expectations. In response, the S&P 500 and other major stock indexes fell by several percentage points.“There was a grain of hope in the markets that inflation was going to start cooling more quickly,” Grieb says. That might have given the Fed the opportunity to be more gentle with its interest rate increases.But Grieb says that the higher-than-anticipated inflation numbers show that “the Fed will have to stick to its guns,” with an aggressive course of interest rate increases in the near future — hence the negative stock market reaction.“The markets are realizing that the aggressive path the Fed has laid out — they don’t have much room to adjust that,” he says.Should long-term investors pay attention to Fed interest rate policy?Fernandez says no.“They should ignore the news, they should ignore the ups and downs, they should know that they’re in it for the long term,” she says.Ideally, Fernandez says, investors should be making small, but frequent contributions to their investment accounts over time (for example, a set amount from each paycheck).This approach, which is called dollar-cost averaging, can help them buy into investments at lower prices during periods of turmoil.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924146468,"gmtCreate":1672205245454,"gmtModify":1676538652435,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"God","listText":"God","text":"God","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924146468","repostId":"1147971350","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923600679,"gmtCreate":1670839267092,"gmtModify":1676538443593,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923600679","repostId":"1105319057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105319057","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670837607,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105319057?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-12 17:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Take A Closer Look At Berkshire If You Want To Be Long Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105319057","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple is the king of the hill when it comes to big tech companies, but shares are expensive t","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple is the king of the hill when it comes to big tech companies, but shares are expensive today at 23.1x earnings.</li><li>The company has maintained its impressive margins and balance sheet.</li><li>Supply chain issues in China and issues with passive fund flows could spell trouble for Apple&#39;s stock in 2023.</li><li>The company bought back $90B in 2022, but the dividend yield of 0.65% isn&#39;t much to get excited about despite consistent dividend growth and the low payout ratio.</li><li>Investors who want to be long Apple should consider buying Berkshire Hathaway.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0ecbe7717eaf228b60ac688d7f8936\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>It’s been a while since my last update on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), but I figured now was a decent time for an article as Christmas approaches. I haven’t owned the stock since late last year, but it’s a high-qualitybusiness that produces innovative high-quality products. Inmy January article, I focused in on why I would choose to get exposure to Apple through Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B) instead. That would have turned out to be a pretty good trade, as shares of Apple are down over 20% YTD while Berkshire is basically flat.</p><h2>Investment Thesis</h2><p>Apple is business that has built a cult like following in the last decade with its products like the iPhone and MacBook. Apple stock has developed a cult like following as well as the company has grown to be the largest in the world with a market cap of $2.3T, providing massive returns for investors. It’s a high margin business with a rock-solid balance sheet, but there are a couple problems for the stock that I will be highlighting today.</p><p>The first is the supply chain issues with China, which is the company’s core manufacturing base. There have been issues with protests and the company is looking at options outside of China, but it has created uncertainty around the company’s supply chain in the near term. The other thing that could be a drag on Apple stock is the potential for ETF and fund outflows, many of which hold Apple as a core position.</p><p>Shares aren’t cheap today either at 23.1x earnings. That is well above its average multiple for the last decade, and growth isn’t projected to be very impressive over the next couple years. They have continued their massive buyback program, with another $90B in 2022. I’m curious to see if the 1% buyback tax that will go into effect in 2023 will have any impact on the program. The yield is small today at 0.65%, so it won’t draw many investors looking for current income, but they have a low payout ratio and have had consistent dividend growth for years. For me, Apple remains a watchlist stock for now, but I will be keeping an eye on the stock in 2023 to see if we get a better buying opportunity. Like I said in January, the best way to be long Apple right now is through Berkshire Hathaway.</p><h2>A Quick Peek At The 10-K</h2><p>Sales increased by 8% overall when compared to fiscal 2021, with the Mac and Services segments leading the way with 14% growth. Gross margin was up 1% for products to 36.3% and 2% for services to 71.7%, for an overall bump of 1.5% (to 43.3%). Net margins were down slightly (from 25.9% to 25.3%) on increased operating expenses and taxes. While that decrease isn’t ideal, Apple remains a high margin business, and the growth of the higher margin service segment to make up a larger portion of the business means they should be able to keep overall margins high.</p><p>Apple still maintains a rock-solid balance sheet and has an AA+ credit rating. Debt has come down a bit from last year, and they still have plenty of cash and securities on the asset side of the balance sheet. The debt is effectively all fixed rate and carries a low interest rate overall, ranging from 0.03% to 4.78%. The longest maturity is forty years out in 2062, which shows the bond market’s confidence in the company. I wouldn’t be interested in loaning money for that period of time due to inflation and other risks, but the so-called smart money is confident in Apple’s long-term future. Their balance sheet means they will be able to weather any storm in the near term, but one of the things that could impact Apple is problems with China and their supply chain.</p><h2>Problems In China</h2><p>I highlighted the supply chain issues in China in myMay article on Apple, and I think it is one of the main risks with the stock today. They have been working to diversify their supply chain, but China is still going to be the foundation of their manufacturing capacity for the foreseeable future. A quick search brings up numerous articles on Apple’s supply chain and the potential issues facing the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4108ac6c842489731b359147b8b7e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While large publications point out potential problems with Apple’s supply chain, another valuable resource are the recent Apple articles on Seeking Alpha highlighting the issue. I would recommend readingCavenagh Research&#39;s recent articleas well as thearticle by Stone Fox Capital. Both articles touch on different valuable points related to the supply chain, and these articles happen to be the most recent bearish articles on the stock. Another potential speed bump for Apple’s stock is what happens in the future with passive fund flows.</p><h2>A Potential Passive Flows Problem</h2><p>One of the problems I see with Apple stock is what could happen with passive fund flows in ETFs and mutual funds over the next couple years. Some of the largest equity ETFs are the S&amp;P 500 ETFs managed by the asset management giants like State Street (STT), BlackRock (BLK), and Vanguard. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (IVV), and the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO) hold nearly $1.5T in assets. These funds receive significant and consistent inflows from automatic retirement fund purchases as well as institutional and individual investors.</p><p>Big tech companies have been a huge beneficiary of these fund flows, with nearly a quarter of the index comprised of companies like Apple, Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA). While the percentage of the index in big tech has likely come down over the course of 2022, it still makes up a significant chunk of the index today. I mentioned this in my January article covering Berkshire and Apple explaining why I thought it was a decent trade to sell Apple but maintain the exposure to the company through Berkshire.</p><blockquote>Right now, $26.58 of every $100 purchased of an S&amp;P 500 index goes straight into big tech. These index funds are technically diversified, but with over a quarter of the value in the top 8 eight tech companies, the index doesn’t get this concentrated very often. The last time it was this concentrated was in the 2000 tech bubble. Apple, as the largest piece of the index, sees nearly 7% of new money flows. This brings me to why I decided to sell my shares of Apple to buy Berkshire Hathaway.</blockquote><blockquote>- Quote from my January Article</blockquote><p>While the inflows have been on autopilot over the last decade, one of the things that could spell trouble for Apple shares is what could happen if that reverses, and we start seeing outflows. The same cycle that saw Apple stock receiving a lion’s share of inflows would mean that the stock will see the most selling pressure from outflows. The indexes currently hold approximately 6.5% of their considerable assets in Apple stock. All these funds, as well as smaller S&amp;P 500 ETFs and many other ETFs often hold Apple as the largest position in the ETF. One of the other main problems I see with Apple is the rich valuation.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Many investors argue that Apple has earned its premium valuation, and I can understand why. It is a high margin business with a sticky product ecosystem, but I wouldn’t be buying today at the current $2.3T market cap. If we look at the last decade when Apple first started paying a dividend, shares are currently well above the average multiple of 17.6x. Shares have spent most of the last couple years well above the average multiple blue line, but I don’t see much in the way of margin of safety today at 23.1x earnings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c081501f6b43e1b9696242d7e79eb6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Price/Earnings(fastgraphs.com)</p><p>Could Apple surprise on the upside with earnings over the next couple years? Sure, but I think the supply chain problems and slowing economy could spell trouble for Apple’s earnings growth over the next couple years. After a closer look at Apple’s year end results, combined with the elevated valuation, I keep coming to the same conclusion that I did in January. If you want to own a piece of Apple, why not just own it through shares of Berkshire?</p><h2>The Advantages Of Berkshire</h2><p>I recentlycovered Berkshire in late November, including articles on the conglomerate&#39;s three new equity stakes in Jefferies Financial (JEF), Louisiana Pacific (LPX), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). I explained why Berkshire is a sleep well at night stock, and why I think the market cap will eventually be over $1T. I would recommend reading that article for an update on the equity portfolio and other factors with Berkshire.</p><p>One of the reasons I think the risk/reward is better for shareholders of Berkshire is the defensive nature of their business and subsidiaries. Apart from the large Apple holding, Berkshire has large positions in energy companies like Chevron (CVX) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY), as well as financials like Bank of America (BAC) and American Express (AXP), which should perform well in the next year or two in my opinion. On top of that, they also have the Energy subsidiary which should also do fine no matter what happens with the economy.</p><p>They also have large insurance operations and the BNSF railroad to anchor many other subsidiaries which contribute to the defensive and diversified nature of the company. You also get a company with billions in cash to put to work (or hold in bonds with rising interest rates), so I think they will have the ability to deal with an economic slowdown and they aren&#39;t as exposed to supply chain issues or passive fund flows. By buying Berkshire instead of Apple, you get a more defensive and diversified holding than Apple at a better valuation.</p><h2>Dividends &amp; Buybacks</h2><p>Apple has been the poster child for buybacks over the last decade, and it has managed to sustain solid dividend growth at the same time. In 2022, the company bought back 569M shares for $90B, an impressive feat, even for a company of Apple’s size. They have $60.7B remaining on the current authorization, and if recent history is any indication, the buybacks will continue at a rapid pace. I’m not a huge fan of the buybacks at this valuation and I would personally rather see larger dividend increases.</p><p>The yield isn’t much for investors looking for current income at 0.65%. They have consistently grown the dividend in the last decade, and they have plenty of room future raises with the low payout ratio (~15%) and cash on the balance sheet. I’m nitpicking here, but I think a better way to return capital to investors today is a larger dividend instead of buybacks. I’m fine with both, and I think that calculation would change if shares were at 15-18x earnings for example. They will also see a 1% tax on buybacks in the coming year due to the Inflation Reduction Act (a horribly named bill, by the way), so I’m curious if that starts to factor into the equation in 2023.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Apple is the king of the hill today when it comes to large cap tech stocks with its 2.3T market cap. It is a high margin cash cow with an impressive balance sheet, and the company has continued its massive buyback program. The 0.65% yield isn’t much, but it has consistently grown for years. These are all reasons to be bullish on the stock. However, I think these are outweighed by reasons to cautious today.</p><p>China has plenty of problems today, and with Apple’s supply chain operations in China, it could have a significant impact on the company in the next couple years. The other thing that could create selling pressure on Apple stock in the next couple years is the large funds and ETFs that hold Apple. The stock benefited over the past decade from massive and consistent inflows, but it will hurt the stock if this trend reverses and these funds are forced to sell shares. The last (and potentially most important) factor is the rich valuation at 23.1x earnings. With growth expected to slow, this is too expensive for me, and I don’t think there is a margin of safety today.</p><p>If you have owned shares for a long time, I don’t think it’s time to sell either. If shares run to $160 to above, I would start trimming, and if they head above $180, I would sell even more. One of the things that investors can do to offset the valuation risk but still get exposure to Apple is to buy shares of Berkshire Hathaway. The conglomerate owns a large Apple position along with many other stocks and subsidiaries. In my January article I argued that investors should consider selling Apple to buy Berkshire, and I think the same trade could make sense today. Even if you don’t want to sell Apple shares, investors putting new cash to work today should strongly consider buying Berkshire instead of Apple.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Take A Closer Look At Berkshire If You Want To Be Long Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTake A Closer Look At Berkshire If You Want To Be Long Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-12 17:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563756-look-at-berkshire-stock-if-you-want-to-be-long-apple><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple is the king of the hill when it comes to big tech companies, but shares are expensive today at 23.1x earnings.The company has maintained its impressive margins and balance sheet.Supply ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563756-look-at-berkshire-stock-if-you-want-to-be-long-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563756-look-at-berkshire-stock-if-you-want-to-be-long-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105319057","content_text":"SummaryApple is the king of the hill when it comes to big tech companies, but shares are expensive today at 23.1x earnings.The company has maintained its impressive margins and balance sheet.Supply chain issues in China and issues with passive fund flows could spell trouble for Apple's stock in 2023.The company bought back $90B in 2022, but the dividend yield of 0.65% isn't much to get excited about despite consistent dividend growth and the low payout ratio.Investors who want to be long Apple should consider buying Berkshire Hathaway.It’s been a while since my last update on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), but I figured now was a decent time for an article as Christmas approaches. I haven’t owned the stock since late last year, but it’s a high-qualitybusiness that produces innovative high-quality products. Inmy January article, I focused in on why I would choose to get exposure to Apple through Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B) instead. That would have turned out to be a pretty good trade, as shares of Apple are down over 20% YTD while Berkshire is basically flat.Investment ThesisApple is business that has built a cult like following in the last decade with its products like the iPhone and MacBook. Apple stock has developed a cult like following as well as the company has grown to be the largest in the world with a market cap of $2.3T, providing massive returns for investors. It’s a high margin business with a rock-solid balance sheet, but there are a couple problems for the stock that I will be highlighting today.The first is the supply chain issues with China, which is the company’s core manufacturing base. There have been issues with protests and the company is looking at options outside of China, but it has created uncertainty around the company’s supply chain in the near term. The other thing that could be a drag on Apple stock is the potential for ETF and fund outflows, many of which hold Apple as a core position.Shares aren’t cheap today either at 23.1x earnings. That is well above its average multiple for the last decade, and growth isn’t projected to be very impressive over the next couple years. They have continued their massive buyback program, with another $90B in 2022. I’m curious to see if the 1% buyback tax that will go into effect in 2023 will have any impact on the program. The yield is small today at 0.65%, so it won’t draw many investors looking for current income, but they have a low payout ratio and have had consistent dividend growth for years. For me, Apple remains a watchlist stock for now, but I will be keeping an eye on the stock in 2023 to see if we get a better buying opportunity. Like I said in January, the best way to be long Apple right now is through Berkshire Hathaway.A Quick Peek At The 10-KSales increased by 8% overall when compared to fiscal 2021, with the Mac and Services segments leading the way with 14% growth. Gross margin was up 1% for products to 36.3% and 2% for services to 71.7%, for an overall bump of 1.5% (to 43.3%). Net margins were down slightly (from 25.9% to 25.3%) on increased operating expenses and taxes. While that decrease isn’t ideal, Apple remains a high margin business, and the growth of the higher margin service segment to make up a larger portion of the business means they should be able to keep overall margins high.Apple still maintains a rock-solid balance sheet and has an AA+ credit rating. Debt has come down a bit from last year, and they still have plenty of cash and securities on the asset side of the balance sheet. The debt is effectively all fixed rate and carries a low interest rate overall, ranging from 0.03% to 4.78%. The longest maturity is forty years out in 2062, which shows the bond market’s confidence in the company. I wouldn’t be interested in loaning money for that period of time due to inflation and other risks, but the so-called smart money is confident in Apple’s long-term future. Their balance sheet means they will be able to weather any storm in the near term, but one of the things that could impact Apple is problems with China and their supply chain.Problems In ChinaI highlighted the supply chain issues in China in myMay article on Apple, and I think it is one of the main risks with the stock today. They have been working to diversify their supply chain, but China is still going to be the foundation of their manufacturing capacity for the foreseeable future. A quick search brings up numerous articles on Apple’s supply chain and the potential issues facing the company.While large publications point out potential problems with Apple’s supply chain, another valuable resource are the recent Apple articles on Seeking Alpha highlighting the issue. I would recommend readingCavenagh Research's recent articleas well as thearticle by Stone Fox Capital. Both articles touch on different valuable points related to the supply chain, and these articles happen to be the most recent bearish articles on the stock. Another potential speed bump for Apple’s stock is what happens in the future with passive fund flows.A Potential Passive Flows ProblemOne of the problems I see with Apple stock is what could happen with passive fund flows in ETFs and mutual funds over the next couple years. Some of the largest equity ETFs are the S&P 500 ETFs managed by the asset management giants like State Street (STT), BlackRock (BLK), and Vanguard. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) hold nearly $1.5T in assets. These funds receive significant and consistent inflows from automatic retirement fund purchases as well as institutional and individual investors.Big tech companies have been a huge beneficiary of these fund flows, with nearly a quarter of the index comprised of companies like Apple, Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA). While the percentage of the index in big tech has likely come down over the course of 2022, it still makes up a significant chunk of the index today. I mentioned this in my January article covering Berkshire and Apple explaining why I thought it was a decent trade to sell Apple but maintain the exposure to the company through Berkshire.Right now, $26.58 of every $100 purchased of an S&P 500 index goes straight into big tech. These index funds are technically diversified, but with over a quarter of the value in the top 8 eight tech companies, the index doesn’t get this concentrated very often. The last time it was this concentrated was in the 2000 tech bubble. Apple, as the largest piece of the index, sees nearly 7% of new money flows. This brings me to why I decided to sell my shares of Apple to buy Berkshire Hathaway.- Quote from my January ArticleWhile the inflows have been on autopilot over the last decade, one of the things that could spell trouble for Apple shares is what could happen if that reverses, and we start seeing outflows. The same cycle that saw Apple stock receiving a lion’s share of inflows would mean that the stock will see the most selling pressure from outflows. The indexes currently hold approximately 6.5% of their considerable assets in Apple stock. All these funds, as well as smaller S&P 500 ETFs and many other ETFs often hold Apple as the largest position in the ETF. One of the other main problems I see with Apple is the rich valuation.ValuationMany investors argue that Apple has earned its premium valuation, and I can understand why. It is a high margin business with a sticky product ecosystem, but I wouldn’t be buying today at the current $2.3T market cap. If we look at the last decade when Apple first started paying a dividend, shares are currently well above the average multiple of 17.6x. Shares have spent most of the last couple years well above the average multiple blue line, but I don’t see much in the way of margin of safety today at 23.1x earnings.Price/Earnings(fastgraphs.com)Could Apple surprise on the upside with earnings over the next couple years? Sure, but I think the supply chain problems and slowing economy could spell trouble for Apple’s earnings growth over the next couple years. After a closer look at Apple’s year end results, combined with the elevated valuation, I keep coming to the same conclusion that I did in January. If you want to own a piece of Apple, why not just own it through shares of Berkshire?The Advantages Of BerkshireI recentlycovered Berkshire in late November, including articles on the conglomerate's three new equity stakes in Jefferies Financial (JEF), Louisiana Pacific (LPX), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). I explained why Berkshire is a sleep well at night stock, and why I think the market cap will eventually be over $1T. I would recommend reading that article for an update on the equity portfolio and other factors with Berkshire.One of the reasons I think the risk/reward is better for shareholders of Berkshire is the defensive nature of their business and subsidiaries. Apart from the large Apple holding, Berkshire has large positions in energy companies like Chevron (CVX) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY), as well as financials like Bank of America (BAC) and American Express (AXP), which should perform well in the next year or two in my opinion. On top of that, they also have the Energy subsidiary which should also do fine no matter what happens with the economy.They also have large insurance operations and the BNSF railroad to anchor many other subsidiaries which contribute to the defensive and diversified nature of the company. You also get a company with billions in cash to put to work (or hold in bonds with rising interest rates), so I think they will have the ability to deal with an economic slowdown and they aren't as exposed to supply chain issues or passive fund flows. By buying Berkshire instead of Apple, you get a more defensive and diversified holding than Apple at a better valuation.Dividends & BuybacksApple has been the poster child for buybacks over the last decade, and it has managed to sustain solid dividend growth at the same time. In 2022, the company bought back 569M shares for $90B, an impressive feat, even for a company of Apple’s size. They have $60.7B remaining on the current authorization, and if recent history is any indication, the buybacks will continue at a rapid pace. I’m not a huge fan of the buybacks at this valuation and I would personally rather see larger dividend increases.The yield isn’t much for investors looking for current income at 0.65%. They have consistently grown the dividend in the last decade, and they have plenty of room future raises with the low payout ratio (~15%) and cash on the balance sheet. I’m nitpicking here, but I think a better way to return capital to investors today is a larger dividend instead of buybacks. I’m fine with both, and I think that calculation would change if shares were at 15-18x earnings for example. They will also see a 1% tax on buybacks in the coming year due to the Inflation Reduction Act (a horribly named bill, by the way), so I’m curious if that starts to factor into the equation in 2023.ConclusionApple is the king of the hill today when it comes to large cap tech stocks with its 2.3T market cap. It is a high margin cash cow with an impressive balance sheet, and the company has continued its massive buyback program. The 0.65% yield isn’t much, but it has consistently grown for years. These are all reasons to be bullish on the stock. However, I think these are outweighed by reasons to cautious today.China has plenty of problems today, and with Apple’s supply chain operations in China, it could have a significant impact on the company in the next couple years. The other thing that could create selling pressure on Apple stock in the next couple years is the large funds and ETFs that hold Apple. The stock benefited over the past decade from massive and consistent inflows, but it will hurt the stock if this trend reverses and these funds are forced to sell shares. The last (and potentially most important) factor is the rich valuation at 23.1x earnings. With growth expected to slow, this is too expensive for me, and I don’t think there is a margin of safety today.If you have owned shares for a long time, I don’t think it’s time to sell either. If shares run to $160 to above, I would start trimming, and if they head above $180, I would sell even more. One of the things that investors can do to offset the valuation risk but still get exposure to Apple is to buy shares of Berkshire Hathaway. The conglomerate owns a large Apple position along with many other stocks and subsidiaries. In my January article I argued that investors should consider selling Apple to buy Berkshire, and I think the same trade could make sense today. Even if you don’t want to sell Apple shares, investors putting new cash to work today should strongly consider buying Berkshire instead of Apple.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":59,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969927983,"gmtCreate":1668325249842,"gmtModify":1676538041678,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969927983","repostId":"1190456060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190456060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668302284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190456060?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-13 09:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190456060","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20: daily returns for S&P500The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF  that tracks the S&P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday  - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean?","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Large 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.</li><li>Major bottoms require a policy change.</li><li>The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d234d2c3a6fdd66410e8c4fdc86a25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>gonin/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2>The top 20: daily returns for S&amp;P500</h2><p>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) that tracks the S&amp;P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday (11/10/2022) - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&amp;P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean? Is this just a bear market rally, or a signal of the major bottom. Let&#39;s first evaluate the top 20 list of the daily rates of return for the S&amp;P500:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a00554a6ad210b0ab26216de0667def\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"1314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As you can see from the list above,</p><ul><li>12 out 20 top daily returns were the bear market rallies, and 8 out of these 12 were during the 1929-1932 bear market and the Great Depression.</li><li>8 out of 20 were the near-bottoms, bottoms, or after-bottoms, and 6 of these 8 were during the bottom associated with the 1932 Great Depression bottom.</li><li>2 out of 8 bottoms were associated with the bottoms of the sharp corrections, the 1987 and the 2020 bottom. The 1987 correction was not associated with a recession, and it is generally considered as a technical in nature. The 2020 bottom was associated with the extraordinary events related to covid19 and the monetary and fiscal covid stimuli.</li></ul><p>Based on the historical evidence, the 5.6% daily spike in S&amp;P500 (SPX) is either a signal of a major bottom or just another bear market rally.</p><h2>The major bottom thesis</h2><p>The major bottom thesis requires an actual bear market capitulation, such as the 1932 bottom, the 2003 bottom or 2009 bottom. In each of these cases, there was a clear policy response to stimulate the economy, both monetary and fiscal.</p><p>The 11/10/22 daily spike was in response to the positive surprise in the CPI inflation, which raised the hope of the Fed pivot - or a less aggressive monetary policy tightening.</p><p>As I previously explained, the full bear market has3 stages:1) the liquidity selloff in response to the Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening, 2) the recessionary selloff caused by the Fed&#39;s tightening, and 3) the credit crunch (or a financial crisis) triggered by the deep recession.</p><p>The bullish case assumes that the current bear market ended with the Phase 1 - or with the peak Fed hawkishness. It&#39;s true, we are likely past the peak inflation, and thus the peak hawkishness.</p><p>However, the question is whether there is a Phase 2 coming - or a recessionary selloff, and whether &#34;something will break&#34; during the process and cause the Phase 3 and the credit crunch.</p><h2>The recessionary selloff</h2><p>The S&amp;P500 PE ratio after the 11/10 spike is 20.58. The market is still overvalued and not priced for a recession.</p><p>Is the recession coming? The spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond yield and the 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the most reliable and the Fed-favored recession indicator, and once it inverts, the recession becomes almost a certainty.</p><p>Currently, the 10y-3mo spread is deeply inverted at -0.46%. Here is the chart:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ef81e28bf62d769ca5f75f29feb339\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FRED</span></p><p>Based on yield curve spread indicator, the recession is coming, and the market is not priced for it - based on the PE ratio of over 20. Thus, the current bear market has not bottomed yet, and the next Phase of the bear market is coming.</p><h2>Why is the 10Y-3mo curve inverted? Why is this signaling a recession?</h2><p>The 10Y-3mo spread is inverted because the Fed is hiking the short-term interest rates above the long-term interest rates. Why? To cause a recession to bring the inflation down.</p><p>The market hopes that the Fed will slow down with the interest rates hikes, because the inflation has peaked. Too late. The damage has been done. The Fed could even stop after the December 50bpt hike, the 10y-3mo spread has already inverted.</p><p>But don&#39;t count on the Fed to pause yet. If the core CPI printed today 4.3% (instead of actual 6.3%), and that was expected to persist, the Fed would still have to further hike. The target is 2% inflation.</p><p>But don&#39;t expect inflation to sharply fall either - without a deep recession. The economic war with China is still active, and it&#39;s more likely to escalate. This is inflationary. The war in Ukraine is still active and it&#39;s more likely to escalate. This is also inflationary. The unemployment rate in the US is still near record lows, and this is inflationary. The only thing the Fed can influence is the US unemployment rate - by inducing a recession.</p><h2>It&#39;s a bear market rally</h2><p>We are not at a major bottom; we are possibly in-between the Phase 1 selloff and a Phase 2 recessionary selloff. There are already signs of &#34;things breaking&#34; like the cryptocurrencies, which could lead to the Phase 3 selloff.</p><p>Bear market rallies happen during the &#34;in-between periods&#34;, so this bear market rally could continue. The bottom will be in-place when the Fed wants to the bottom to be in place - this will be the pivot the bulls are waiting: the Fed slashing interest rates and resuming QE. I don&#39;t think anybody expects this over the near term. Don&#39;t fight the Fed. The bear market rally is the opportunity to sell or re-short.</p><h2>SPY sector analysis</h2><p>AllSPYsectors were up significantly on 11/10/2022, led by the beaten down technology sector (XLK), the interest rate sensitive real estate sector (XLRE) and the cyclical discretionary sector (XLY). These sectors should not lead pre-recession, while the Fed is trying to cool off economy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d11bae7fc6e9bba3dee9e588bd902bb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SelectSectorSPDR</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-13 09:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190456060","content_text":"SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20: daily returns for S&P500The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) that tracks the S&P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday (11/10/2022) - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean? Is this just a bear market rally, or a signal of the major bottom. Let's first evaluate the top 20 list of the daily rates of return for the S&P500:As you can see from the list above,12 out 20 top daily returns were the bear market rallies, and 8 out of these 12 were during the 1929-1932 bear market and the Great Depression.8 out of 20 were the near-bottoms, bottoms, or after-bottoms, and 6 of these 8 were during the bottom associated with the 1932 Great Depression bottom.2 out of 8 bottoms were associated with the bottoms of the sharp corrections, the 1987 and the 2020 bottom. The 1987 correction was not associated with a recession, and it is generally considered as a technical in nature. The 2020 bottom was associated with the extraordinary events related to covid19 and the monetary and fiscal covid stimuli.Based on the historical evidence, the 5.6% daily spike in S&P500 (SPX) is either a signal of a major bottom or just another bear market rally.The major bottom thesisThe major bottom thesis requires an actual bear market capitulation, such as the 1932 bottom, the 2003 bottom or 2009 bottom. In each of these cases, there was a clear policy response to stimulate the economy, both monetary and fiscal.The 11/10/22 daily spike was in response to the positive surprise in the CPI inflation, which raised the hope of the Fed pivot - or a less aggressive monetary policy tightening.As I previously explained, the full bear market has3 stages:1) the liquidity selloff in response to the Fed's monetary policy tightening, 2) the recessionary selloff caused by the Fed's tightening, and 3) the credit crunch (or a financial crisis) triggered by the deep recession.The bullish case assumes that the current bear market ended with the Phase 1 - or with the peak Fed hawkishness. It's true, we are likely past the peak inflation, and thus the peak hawkishness.However, the question is whether there is a Phase 2 coming - or a recessionary selloff, and whether \"something will break\" during the process and cause the Phase 3 and the credit crunch.The recessionary selloffThe S&P500 PE ratio after the 11/10 spike is 20.58. The market is still overvalued and not priced for a recession.Is the recession coming? The spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond yield and the 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the most reliable and the Fed-favored recession indicator, and once it inverts, the recession becomes almost a certainty.Currently, the 10y-3mo spread is deeply inverted at -0.46%. Here is the chart:FREDBased on yield curve spread indicator, the recession is coming, and the market is not priced for it - based on the PE ratio of over 20. Thus, the current bear market has not bottomed yet, and the next Phase of the bear market is coming.Why is the 10Y-3mo curve inverted? Why is this signaling a recession?The 10Y-3mo spread is inverted because the Fed is hiking the short-term interest rates above the long-term interest rates. Why? To cause a recession to bring the inflation down.The market hopes that the Fed will slow down with the interest rates hikes, because the inflation has peaked. Too late. The damage has been done. The Fed could even stop after the December 50bpt hike, the 10y-3mo spread has already inverted.But don't count on the Fed to pause yet. If the core CPI printed today 4.3% (instead of actual 6.3%), and that was expected to persist, the Fed would still have to further hike. The target is 2% inflation.But don't expect inflation to sharply fall either - without a deep recession. The economic war with China is still active, and it's more likely to escalate. This is inflationary. The war in Ukraine is still active and it's more likely to escalate. This is also inflationary. The unemployment rate in the US is still near record lows, and this is inflationary. The only thing the Fed can influence is the US unemployment rate - by inducing a recession.It's a bear market rallyWe are not at a major bottom; we are possibly in-between the Phase 1 selloff and a Phase 2 recessionary selloff. There are already signs of \"things breaking\" like the cryptocurrencies, which could lead to the Phase 3 selloff.Bear market rallies happen during the \"in-between periods\", so this bear market rally could continue. The bottom will be in-place when the Fed wants to the bottom to be in place - this will be the pivot the bulls are waiting: the Fed slashing interest rates and resuming QE. I don't think anybody expects this over the near term. Don't fight the Fed. The bear market rally is the opportunity to sell or re-short.SPY sector analysisAllSPYsectors were up significantly on 11/10/2022, led by the beaten down technology sector (XLK), the interest rate sensitive real estate sector (XLRE) and the cyclical discretionary sector (XLY). These sectors should not lead pre-recession, while the Fed is trying to cool off economy.SelectSectorSPDR","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569374298664989","authorId":"3569374298664989","name":"stardice","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569374298664989","authorIdStr":"3569374298664989"},"content":"Liked and commented","text":"Liked and commented","html":"Liked and commented"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082350089,"gmtCreate":1650527563523,"gmtModify":1676534745069,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>sigh","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>sigh","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$sigh","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8eab79d4cfb10a531f3f59a6a0d74879","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082350089","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035023562,"gmtCreate":1647475542593,"gmtModify":1676534234250,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035023562","repostId":"2220169793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220169793","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1647471128,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220169793?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-17 06:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Pares Gains after Fed Hikes Rates, Signals More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220169793","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Fed ups rates by 25 basis points, signals 7 hikes for 2022* S&P banks close up 3.7%, financials add 2.9%* Indexes up: Dow 1.55%, S&P 500 2.24%, Nasdaq 3.77%March 16 (Reuters) - The S&P 500closed up ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Fed ups rates by 25 basis points, signals 7 hikes for 2022</p><p>* S&amp;P banks close up 3.7%, financials add 2.9%</p><p>* Indexes up: Dow 1.55%, S&amp;P 500 2.24%, Nasdaq 3.77%</p><p>March 16 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 closed up more than 2% while the Nasdaq rallied almost 4% on Wednesday as investors shrugged off initial jitters following the U.S. Federal Reserve&#39;s interest rate increase and its signal that more hikes would be needed to fight inflation, ending the pandemic-era&#39;s easy monetary policy.</p><p>The central bank announced a quarter-percentage-point increase in its benchmark overnight rate as was widely expected but the projection that its rate would hit between 1.75% and 2% by year&#39;s end was more hawkish than some investors said they had expected.</p><p>While the Fed flagged the massive uncertainty the economy faces from the war between Russia and Ukraine and the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, it said &#34;ongoing increases&#34; in the target federal funds rate &#34;will be appropriate&#34; to curb the highest inflation the country has witnessed in 40 years.</p><p>While the major indexes pared earlier gains sharply and the S&amp;P and the Dow both dipped into the red briefly after the Fed statement, the indexes steadied as Fed chair Jerome Powell spoke at a press conference.</p><p>Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group in Minneapolis said investors may be relieved the Fed is taking action against surging inflation.</p><p>&#34;Hearing the Fed finally &#39;say and act&#39; to tackle inflation is somewhat calming for the investment community, and for Main Street struggling with higher inflation,&#34; he said.</p><p>But other market analysts were concerned the aggressive rate hike projected could cause the economy to skid.</p><p>&#34;This looks like a Fed that is intending on causing recession in order to stamp out the inflation problem and that is as short sighted as calling inflation transitory a year ago,” Scott Ladner, chief investment officer, Horizon Investments, Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p>Joseph LaVorgna, Americas chief economist at Natixis in New York was also skeptical.</p><p>“They’re going to try to be aggressive here in raising rates. I wish Jay Powell and company all the best of luck because they&#39;re not going to get anywhere near as they think, unless they’re willing to throw a lot of people out of jobs, because that&#39;s what&#39;s going to happen.  Because we&#39;re going to have a recession. This is a recession forecast,&#34; he said.</p><p>&#34;I just don&#39;t see the Fed being able to engineer this kind of tightening for what right now is inflationary demand destruction.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 518.76 points, or 1.55%, to 34,063.1, the S&amp;P 500 gained 95.41 points, or 2.24%, to 4,357.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 487.93 points, or 3.77%, to 13,436.55.</p><p>Of the S&amp;P 500&#39;s 11 major industry sectors, the biggest gainers were sectors that had fallen sharply in a recent sell off with consumer discretionary and technology</p><p>both finishing up more than 3% while communications services and financials added almost 3%.</p><p>Only two of the sectors ended the day in the red with energy falling 0.4% and utilities losing 0.2%.</p><p>Historical data suggests tighter monetary policy has often been accompanied by solid gains in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 has returned an average 7.7% in the first year the Fed raises rates, according to a Deutsche Bank study of 13 hiking cycles since 1955.</p><p>Ahead of the Fed statement stocks had been rallying as talk of compromise from both Moscow and Kyiv on a status for Ukraine outside of NATO lifted hope on Wednesday for a potential breakthrough after three weeks of war.</p><p>The global mood had also been lifted earlier by China&#39;s promise to roll out more stimulus for the economy and keep markets stable.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.78-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 29 new highs and 93 new lows.</p><p>On U.S. exchanges 15.82 billion shares changed hands compared with the 14.04 billion 20-day moving average.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Pares Gains after Fed Hikes Rates, Signals More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Pares Gains after Fed Hikes Rates, Signals More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-17 06:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Fed ups rates by 25 basis points, signals 7 hikes for 2022</p><p>* S&amp;P banks close up 3.7%, financials add 2.9%</p><p>* Indexes up: Dow 1.55%, S&amp;P 500 2.24%, Nasdaq 3.77%</p><p>March 16 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 closed up more than 2% while the Nasdaq rallied almost 4% on Wednesday as investors shrugged off initial jitters following the U.S. Federal Reserve&#39;s interest rate increase and its signal that more hikes would be needed to fight inflation, ending the pandemic-era&#39;s easy monetary policy.</p><p>The central bank announced a quarter-percentage-point increase in its benchmark overnight rate as was widely expected but the projection that its rate would hit between 1.75% and 2% by year&#39;s end was more hawkish than some investors said they had expected.</p><p>While the Fed flagged the massive uncertainty the economy faces from the war between Russia and Ukraine and the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, it said &#34;ongoing increases&#34; in the target federal funds rate &#34;will be appropriate&#34; to curb the highest inflation the country has witnessed in 40 years.</p><p>While the major indexes pared earlier gains sharply and the S&amp;P and the Dow both dipped into the red briefly after the Fed statement, the indexes steadied as Fed chair Jerome Powell spoke at a press conference.</p><p>Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group in Minneapolis said investors may be relieved the Fed is taking action against surging inflation.</p><p>&#34;Hearing the Fed finally &#39;say and act&#39; to tackle inflation is somewhat calming for the investment community, and for Main Street struggling with higher inflation,&#34; he said.</p><p>But other market analysts were concerned the aggressive rate hike projected could cause the economy to skid.</p><p>&#34;This looks like a Fed that is intending on causing recession in order to stamp out the inflation problem and that is as short sighted as calling inflation transitory a year ago,” Scott Ladner, chief investment officer, Horizon Investments, Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p>Joseph LaVorgna, Americas chief economist at Natixis in New York was also skeptical.</p><p>“They’re going to try to be aggressive here in raising rates. I wish Jay Powell and company all the best of luck because they&#39;re not going to get anywhere near as they think, unless they’re willing to throw a lot of people out of jobs, because that&#39;s what&#39;s going to happen.  Because we&#39;re going to have a recession. This is a recession forecast,&#34; he said.</p><p>&#34;I just don&#39;t see the Fed being able to engineer this kind of tightening for what right now is inflationary demand destruction.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 518.76 points, or 1.55%, to 34,063.1, the S&amp;P 500 gained 95.41 points, or 2.24%, to 4,357.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 487.93 points, or 3.77%, to 13,436.55.</p><p>Of the S&amp;P 500&#39;s 11 major industry sectors, the biggest gainers were sectors that had fallen sharply in a recent sell off with consumer discretionary and technology</p><p>both finishing up more than 3% while communications services and financials added almost 3%.</p><p>Only two of the sectors ended the day in the red with energy falling 0.4% and utilities losing 0.2%.</p><p>Historical data suggests tighter monetary policy has often been accompanied by solid gains in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 has returned an average 7.7% in the first year the Fed raises rates, according to a Deutsche Bank study of 13 hiking cycles since 1955.</p><p>Ahead of the Fed statement stocks had been rallying as talk of compromise from both Moscow and Kyiv on a status for Ukraine outside of NATO lifted hope on Wednesday for a potential breakthrough after three weeks of war.</p><p>The global mood had also been lifted earlier by China&#39;s promise to roll out more stimulus for the economy and keep markets stable.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.78-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 29 new highs and 93 new lows.</p><p>On U.S. exchanges 15.82 billion shares changed hands compared with the 14.04 billion 20-day moving average.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2220169793","content_text":"* Fed ups rates by 25 basis points, signals 7 hikes for 2022* S&P banks close up 3.7%, financials add 2.9%* Indexes up: Dow 1.55%, S&P 500 2.24%, Nasdaq 3.77%March 16 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed up more than 2% while the Nasdaq rallied almost 4% on Wednesday as investors shrugged off initial jitters following the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate increase and its signal that more hikes would be needed to fight inflation, ending the pandemic-era's easy monetary policy.The central bank announced a quarter-percentage-point increase in its benchmark overnight rate as was widely expected but the projection that its rate would hit between 1.75% and 2% by year's end was more hawkish than some investors said they had expected.While the Fed flagged the massive uncertainty the economy faces from the war between Russia and Ukraine and the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, it said \"ongoing increases\" in the target federal funds rate \"will be appropriate\" to curb the highest inflation the country has witnessed in 40 years.While the major indexes pared earlier gains sharply and the S&P and the Dow both dipped into the red briefly after the Fed statement, the indexes steadied as Fed chair Jerome Powell spoke at a press conference.Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group in Minneapolis said investors may be relieved the Fed is taking action against surging inflation.\"Hearing the Fed finally 'say and act' to tackle inflation is somewhat calming for the investment community, and for Main Street struggling with higher inflation,\" he said.But other market analysts were concerned the aggressive rate hike projected could cause the economy to skid.\"This looks like a Fed that is intending on causing recession in order to stamp out the inflation problem and that is as short sighted as calling inflation transitory a year ago,” Scott Ladner, chief investment officer, Horizon Investments, Charlotte, North Carolina.Joseph LaVorgna, Americas chief economist at Natixis in New York was also skeptical.“They’re going to try to be aggressive here in raising rates. I wish Jay Powell and company all the best of luck because they're not going to get anywhere near as they think, unless they’re willing to throw a lot of people out of jobs, because that's what's going to happen.  Because we're going to have a recession. This is a recession forecast,\" he said.\"I just don't see the Fed being able to engineer this kind of tightening for what right now is inflationary demand destruction.\"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 518.76 points, or 1.55%, to 34,063.1, the S&P 500 gained 95.41 points, or 2.24%, to 4,357.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 487.93 points, or 3.77%, to 13,436.55.Of the S&P 500's 11 major industry sectors, the biggest gainers were sectors that had fallen sharply in a recent sell off with consumer discretionary and technologyboth finishing up more than 3% while communications services and financials added almost 3%.Only two of the sectors ended the day in the red with energy falling 0.4% and utilities losing 0.2%.Historical data suggests tighter monetary policy has often been accompanied by solid gains in stocks. The S&P 500 has returned an average 7.7% in the first year the Fed raises rates, according to a Deutsche Bank study of 13 hiking cycles since 1955.Ahead of the Fed statement stocks had been rallying as talk of compromise from both Moscow and Kyiv on a status for Ukraine outside of NATO lifted hope on Wednesday for a potential breakthrough after three weeks of war.The global mood had also been lifted earlier by China's promise to roll out more stimulus for the economy and keep markets stable.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 3.78-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.79-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 29 new highs and 93 new lows.On U.S. exchanges 15.82 billion shares changed hands compared with the 14.04 billion 20-day moving average.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926506723,"gmtCreate":1671578891563,"gmtModify":1676538557868,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926506723","repostId":"2293365697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2293365697","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671577878,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2293365697?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-21 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall St Closes Slightly Higher After Four-Day Sell off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2293365697","media":"Reuters","summary":"Wall Street closed slightly higher on Tuesday after four sessions of declines, but investors fretted","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street closed slightly higher on Tuesday after four sessions of declines, but investors fretted about weak holiday shopping and rising bond yields added pressure after the Bank of Japan&#39;s (BoJ) surprise tweak of monetary policy.</p><p>Fears about the Federal Reserve&#39;s plan to keep raising U.S. interest rates have weighed heavily on equities since its policy meeting last week.</p><p>Adding pressure was an increase in U.S. Treasury yields after the BOJ made a surprise tweak to its bond yield control that allows long-term interest rates to rise more.</p><p>&#34;The Bank of Japan&#39;s news moved the bond market and continues to have an impact,&#34; said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer, Independent Advisor Alliance, Charlotte, NC.</p><p>Investors were also worrying about the current quarter earnings season and winter holiday shopping.</p><p>&#34;We came into it with some pretty reasonable expectations but retailers are having to do massive sales,&#34; said Carol Schleif, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, BMO family office in Minneapolis, Minnesota noting that consumers this year are veering toward &#34;services and events - vacation tickets and restaurant gift certificates and things like that - as opposed to another sweater or another bag.&#34;</p><p>Schleif noted that investors are wary after a volatile year in equities with the S&amp;P on track for its biggest annual decline since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>&#34;People have gotten their heads handed to them all year and they&#39;re not confident enough to want to step in,&#34; she said.</p><p>&#34;That&#39;s what leads to this push me pull you kind of market where it&#39;s up a little down a little and it&#39;s really hard for any segment of the investing public to want to get to want to spin a narrative they would put a whole bunch of money behind.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 92.2 points, or 0.28%, to 32,849.74, the S&amp;P 500 gained 3.96 points, or 0.10%, to 3,821.62 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.08 points, or 0.01%, to 10,547.11.</p><p>Among the S&amp;P 500&#39;s 11 major sectors, the energy index gained most, finishing up 1.52% as crude oil prices rose.</p><p>Of the four sectors that declined, consumer discretionary was the weakest, finishing down 1.13%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Transport average closed down 1.3% after underperforming the broader market throughout the session following JPMorgan&#39;s</p><p>bearish research on transport companies.</p><p>FedEx Corp closed down 2.6% ahead of its quarterly report. But shares in the delivery company, which spooked the entire market in September by pulling its financial forecast, were last up more than 3% in volatile after the bell trading following its fiscal second-quarter report and 2023 guidance.</p><p>In fixed income, U.S. Treasury prices fell after the BOJ&#39;s shock move, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rising to a three-week high of 3.71%.</p><p>Also on Tuesday, data showed U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled to a 2-1/2 year low in November and permits for future construction plunged as higher mortgage rates continued to depress housing market activity.</p><p>General Mills Inc shares sank 4.6% after quarterly sales at its high-margin pet business took a hit due to key retailers cutting back on inventory, overshadowing an increase in its full-year earnings and sales forecast.</p><p>Tesla Inc shares tumbled 8% after at least three brokerages cut the electric vehicle maker&#39;s target price on growing concerns of demand weakness and risk from Chief Executive Elon Musk&#39;s struggles at Twitter.</p><p>Wells Fargo &amp; Co slid 2% after U.S. regulators fined the lender $3.7 billion, citing widespread mismanagement of auto loans, mortgages and deposit accounts.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 399 new lows.</p><p>On U.S. exchanges 10.52 billion shares changed hands, compared with the 11.15 billion average for the last 20 trading days.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec7d47359d6404e27dc4ac5562e376a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall St Closes Slightly Higher After Four-Day Sell off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall St Closes Slightly Higher After Four-Day Sell off\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-21 07:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-closes-214057093.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wall Street closed slightly higher on Tuesday after four sessions of declines, but investors fretted about weak holiday shopping and rising bond yields added pressure after the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-closes-214057093.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-closes-214057093.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2293365697","content_text":"Wall Street closed slightly higher on Tuesday after four sessions of declines, but investors fretted about weak holiday shopping and rising bond yields added pressure after the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) surprise tweak of monetary policy.Fears about the Federal Reserve's plan to keep raising U.S. interest rates have weighed heavily on equities since its policy meeting last week.Adding pressure was an increase in U.S. Treasury yields after the BOJ made a surprise tweak to its bond yield control that allows long-term interest rates to rise more.\"The Bank of Japan's news moved the bond market and continues to have an impact,\" said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer, Independent Advisor Alliance, Charlotte, NC.Investors were also worrying about the current quarter earnings season and winter holiday shopping.\"We came into it with some pretty reasonable expectations but retailers are having to do massive sales,\" said Carol Schleif, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, BMO family office in Minneapolis, Minnesota noting that consumers this year are veering toward \"services and events - vacation tickets and restaurant gift certificates and things like that - as opposed to another sweater or another bag.\"Schleif noted that investors are wary after a volatile year in equities with the S&P on track for its biggest annual decline since the 2008 financial crisis.\"People have gotten their heads handed to them all year and they're not confident enough to want to step in,\" she said.\"That's what leads to this push me pull you kind of market where it's up a little down a little and it's really hard for any segment of the investing public to want to get to want to spin a narrative they would put a whole bunch of money behind.\"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 92.2 points, or 0.28%, to 32,849.74, the S&P 500 gained 3.96 points, or 0.10%, to 3,821.62 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.08 points, or 0.01%, to 10,547.11.Among the S&P 500's 11 major sectors, the energy index gained most, finishing up 1.52% as crude oil prices rose.Of the four sectors that declined, consumer discretionary was the weakest, finishing down 1.13%.The Dow Jones Transport average closed down 1.3% after underperforming the broader market throughout the session following JPMorgan'sbearish research on transport companies.FedEx Corp closed down 2.6% ahead of its quarterly report. But shares in the delivery company, which spooked the entire market in September by pulling its financial forecast, were last up more than 3% in volatile after the bell trading following its fiscal second-quarter report and 2023 guidance.In fixed income, U.S. Treasury prices fell after the BOJ's shock move, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rising to a three-week high of 3.71%.Also on Tuesday, data showed U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled to a 2-1/2 year low in November and permits for future construction plunged as higher mortgage rates continued to depress housing market activity.General Mills Inc shares sank 4.6% after quarterly sales at its high-margin pet business took a hit due to key retailers cutting back on inventory, overshadowing an increase in its full-year earnings and sales forecast.Tesla Inc shares tumbled 8% after at least three brokerages cut the electric vehicle maker's target price on growing concerns of demand weakness and risk from Chief Executive Elon Musk's struggles at Twitter.Wells Fargo & Co slid 2% after U.S. regulators fined the lender $3.7 billion, citing widespread mismanagement of auto loans, mortgages and deposit accounts.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 399 new lows.On U.S. exchanges 10.52 billion shares changed hands, compared with the 11.15 billion average for the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967343422,"gmtCreate":1670279976966,"gmtModify":1676538333702,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967343422","repostId":"2288034469","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.</p><p>This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.</p><p>It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.</p><p>The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>What is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.</p><p>Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.</p><p>The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.</p><p>Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Cutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.</p><p>The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>But the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Quant-Insight</p><p>Should the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964903581,"gmtCreate":1670042975244,"gmtModify":1676538294745,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964903581","repostId":"1152464265","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152464265","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670022054,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152464265?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 07:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152464265","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Ha","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb8b5a354d9d687bd95cdff74dddc508\" tg-width=\"1214\" tg-height=\"811\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Halloween party are still hanging from a doorway. Two boxes of Legos sit on the floor of one bedroom. And then there are the shoes—dozens of sneakers and heels piled in the foyer, left behind by employees who fled the island of New Providence last month when his cryptocurrency exchangeFTX imploded.</p><p>“It’s been an interesting few weeks,” Bankman-Fried says in a chipper tone as he greets me. It’s a muggy Saturday afternoon, eight days after FTX filed for bankruptcy. He’s shoeless, in white gym socks, a red T-shirt and wrinkled khaki shorts. His standard uniform.</p><p>This isn’t part of the typical tour Bankman-Fried gave to the many reporters who came to tell the tale of the boy-genius-crypto-billionaire who slept on a beanbag chair next to his desk and only got rich so he could give it all away, and it’s easy to see why. The apartment is at the top of one of the luxury condo buildings that border a marina in a gated community called Albany. Outside, deckhands buff the stanchions of a 200-foot yacht owned by a fracking billionaire. A bronze replica of Wall Street’s<i>Charging Bull</i>statue stands on the lawn, which is as manicured as the residents. I feel like I’ve crash-landed on an alien planet populated solely by the very rich and the people who work for them.</p><p>Bankman-Fried leads me down a marble-floored hallway to a small bedroom, where he perches on a plush brown couch. Always known for being jittery, he taps his foot so hard it rattles a coffee table, smacks gum and rubs his index finger with his thumb like he’s twirling an invisible fidget spinner. But he seems almost cheerful as he explains why he’s invited me into his 12,000-square-foot bolthole, against the advice of his lawyers, even as investigators from theUS Department of Justice probewhether he used customers’ funds to prop up his hedge fund, a crime that could send him to prison for years. (Spoiler alert: It sure looks like he did.)</p><p>“What I’m focusing on is what I can do, right now, to try and make things as right as possible,” Bankman-Fried says. “I can’t do that if I’m just focused on covering my ass.”</p><p>But he seems to be doing just that, with me here and all along the apology tour he’ll later embark on, which will include a video appearance at a<i>New York Times</i>conference and an interview on<i>Good Morning America</i>. He’s been trying to blame his firm’s failure on a hazy combination of comically poor bookkeeping, wildly misjudged risks and complete ignorance of what his hedge fund was doing. In other words, an alumnus of both MIT and the elite Wall Street trading firmJane Streetis arguing that he was just dumb with the numbers—not pulling a conscious fraud. Talking in detail to journalists about what’s certain to be the subject of extensive litigation seems like an unusual strategy, but it makes sense: The press helped him create his only-honest-man-in-crypto image, so why not use them to talk his way out of trouble?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b2ba9ef6da8454146f200cdc460f6e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Bankman-Fried after an interview on<i>Bloomberg Wealth With David Rubenstein</i>on Aug. 17, 2022.Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg</p><p>He doesn’t say so, but one reason he might be willing to speak with me is that I’m one of the reporters who helped build him up. After spending two days at FTX’s offices in February, I flew past the brightred flagsat his company—its lack of corporate governance, the ties to his Alameda Research hedge fund, its profligate spending on marketing, the fact that it operated largely outside US jurisdiction. Iwrote a storyfocused on whether Bankman-Fried would follow through on his plans to donate huge sums to charity and his connections to an unusual philanthropic movement calledeffective altruism.</p><p>It wasn’t the most embarrassingly puffy of the many puff pieces that came out about him. (“After my interview with SBF, I was convinced: I was talking to a future trillionaire,” one writer said in an article commissioned by a venture capital firm.) But my tone wasn’t entirely dissimilar. “Bankman-Fried is a thought experiment from a college philosophy seminar come to life,” I wrote. “Should someone who wants to save the world first amass as much money and power as possible, or will the pursuit corrupt him along the way?” Now it seems pretty clear that a better question would’ve been whether the business was ascam from the start.</p><p>I tell Bankman-Fried I want to talk about the decisions that led to FTX’s collapse, and why he took them. Earlier in the week, inlate-night DM exchangeswith a<i>Vox</i>reporter and on a phone call with a YouTuber, he made comments that many interpreted as an admission that everything he said was a lie. (“So the ethics stuff, mostly a front?” the<i>Vox</i>reporter asked. “Yeah,” Bankman-Fried replied.) He’d spoken so cynically about his motivations that to many it seemed like a comic book character was pulling off his mask to reveal the villain who’d been hiding there all along.</p><p>I set out on this visit with a different working theory. Maybe I was feeling the tug of my past reporting, but I still didn’t think the talk about charity was all made up. Since he was a teenager, Bankman-Fried has described himself as utilitarian—following the philosophy that the correct action is the one likely to result in the greatest good for the greatest number of people. He said his endgame was making and donating enough money to prevent pandemics and stop runaway artificial intelligence from destroying humanity. Faced with a crisis, and believing he was the hero of his own sci-fi movie, he might’ve thought it was right to make a crazy, even illegal, gamble to save his company.</p><p>To be clear, if that’s what happened, it’s the logic of a megalomaniac, not a martyr. The money wasn’t his to gamble with, and “the ends justify the means” is a cliché of bad ethics. But if it’s what he believed, he might still think he’d made the right decision, even if it didn’t work out. It seemed to me that’s what he meant when he messaged<i>Vox</i>, “The worst quadrant is sketchy + lose. The best is win + ???” I want to probe that, in part because it might get him to talk more candidly about what had happened to his customers’ money.</p><p>I decide to approach the topic gingerly, on terms I think he’ll relate to, as it seems he’s in less of a crime-confess-y mood. He’s said he likes to evaluate decisions in terms of expected value—the odds of success times the likely payoff—so I begin by asking: “Should I judge you by your impact, or by the expected value of your decision?”</p><p>“When all is said and done, what matters is your actual realized impact. Like, that’s what actually matters to the world,” he says. “But, obviously, there’s luck.”</p><p>That’s the in I’m looking for. For the next 11 hours—with breaks for fundraising calls and a very awkward dinner—I try to get him to tell me exactly what he meant. He denies that he’s committed fraud or lied to anyone and blames FTX’s failure on his sloppiness and inattention. But at points it seems like he’s saying he got<i>un</i>lucky, or miscalculated the odds.</p><p>Bankman-Fried tells me he’s still got a chance to raise $8 billion to save his company. He seems delusional, or committed to pretending this is still an error he can fix, and either way, the few supporters remaining at his penthouse seem unlikely to set him straight. The grim scene reminds me a bit of the end of<i>Scarface</i>, with Tony Montana holed up in his mansion, semi-incoherent, his unknown enemies sneaking closer. But instead of mountains of cocaine, Bankman-Fried is clinging to spreadsheet tabs filled with wildly optimistic cryptocurrency valuations.</p><p>Think of FTX like an offshore casino. Customers sent in money, then gambled on the price of hundreds ofcryptocurrencies—not just Bitcoin or Ether, but more obscure coins. In crypto slang, the latter are called shitcoins, because almost no one knows what they’re for. But in the past few years, otherwise respectable people, from retired dentists to heads of state, convinced themselves that these coins werethe future of finance. Or at least that enough other people might think so to make the price go up. Bankman-Fried’s casino was growing so fast that earlier this year some of Silicon Valley’s top venture capitalists invested in it at a $32 billion valuation.</p><p>The problem surfaced last month. After a rival crypto-casino kingpin raised concerns about FTX on Twitter, customers rushed to cash in their chips. But when Bankman-Fried’s casino opened the vault, their money wasn’t there. According to multiple news reports citing people familiar with the matter, it had been secretly lent to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, which had lost it in some mix of bad bets, insane spending and perhaps something even sketchier. John Ray III, the lawyer who’s now chief executive officer of the bankrupt exchange, has alleged in court that FTX covered up the loans using secret software.</p><p>Bankman-Fried denies this again to me. Returning to the framework of expected value, I ask him if the decisions he made were correct.</p><p>“I think that I’ve made a lot of plus-EV decisions and a few very large boneheaded decisions,” he says. “Certainly in retrospect, those very large decisions were very bad, and may end up overwhelming everything else.”</p><p>The chain of events, in his telling, started about four years ago. Bankman-Fried was in Hong Kong, where he’d moved from Berkeley, California, with a small group of friends from the effective-altruism community. Together they ran a successful startup crypto hedge fund,Alameda Research. (The name itself was an early example of his casual attitude toward rules—it was chosen to avoid scrutiny from banks, which frequently closed its accounts. “If we named our company like, Shitcoin Daytraders Inc., they’d probably just reject us,” Bankman-Fried told a podcaster in 2021. “But, I mean, no one doesn’t like research.”)</p><p>The fund had made millions of dollars exploiting inefficiencies across cryptocurrency exchanges. (Ex-employees, even those otherwise critical of Bankman-Fried, have said this is true, though some have said Alameda then lost some of that money because of bad trades and mismanagement.) Bankman-Fried and his friends began considering starting their own exchange—what would become FTX.</p><p>The way Bankman-Fried later described this decision reveals his attitude toward risk. He estimated there was an 80% chance the exchange would fail to attract enough customers. But he’s said one should always take a bet, even a long-shot one, if the expected value is positive, calling this stance “risk neutral.” But it actually meant he would take risks that to a normal person sound insane. “As an individual, to make a bet where it’s like, ‘I’m going to gamble my $10 billion and either get $20 billion or $0, with equal probability,’ would be madness,” Rob Wiblin, host of an effective-altruism podcast, said to Bankman-Fried in April. “But from an altruistic point of view, it’s not so crazy.”</p><p>“Completely agree,” Bankman-Fried replied. He told another interviewer that he’d make a bet described as a chance of “51% you double the earth out somewhere else, 49% it all disappears.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried and his friends jump-started FTX by having Alameda provide liquidity. It was a huge conflict of interest. Imagine if the top executives at an online poker site also entered its high-stakes tournaments—the temptation to cheat by peeking at other players’ cards would be huge. But Bankman-Fried assured customers that Alameda would play by the same rules as everyone else, and enough people came to trade that FTX took off. “Having Alameda provide liquidity on FTX early on was the right decision, because I think that helped make FTX a great product for users, even though it obviously ended up backfiring,” Bankman-Fried tells me.</p><p>Part of FTX’s appeal was that it was mostly a derivatives exchange, which allowed customers to trade “on margin,” meaning with borrowed money. That’s a key to his defense. Bankman-Fried argues no one should be surprised that big traders on FTX, including Alameda, were borrowing from the exchange, and that his fund’s position just somehow got out of hand. “Everyone was borrowing and lending,” he says. “That’s been its calling card.” But FTX’s normal margin system, crypto traders tell me, would never have permitted anyone to accumulate a debt that looked like Alameda’s. When I ask if Alameda had to follow the same margin rules as other traders, he admits the fund did not. “There was more leeway,” he says.</p><p>That wouldn’t have been so important had Alameda stuck to its original trading strategy of relatively low-risk arbitrage trades. But in 2020 and 2021, as Bankman-Fried became the face of FTX, amajor political donorand a favorite of Silicon Valley, Alameda faced more competition in that market-making business. It shifted its strategy to, essentially, gambling on shitcoins.</p><p>As Caroline Ellison, then Alameda’s co-CEO, explained in aMarch 2021 post on Twitter: “The way to really make money is figure out when the market is going to go up and get balls long before that,” she wrote, adding that she’d learned the strategy from the classic market-manipulation memoir,<i>Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.</i>Her co-CEO said in another tweet that a profitable strategy was buying Dogecoin becauseElon Musktweeted about it.</p><p>The reason they were bragging about what sounded like a high schooler’s tactics was that it was working better than anyone knew. When we spoke in February 2022, Bankman-Fried told me that Alameda had made $1 billion the previous year. He now says that was Alameda’s arbitrage profits. On top of that, its shitcoins gained tens of billions of dollars of value, at least on paper. “If you mark everything to market, I do believe at one point my net worth got to $100 billion,” Bankman-Fried says.</p><p>Any trader would know this wasn’t nearly as good as it sounded. The large pile of tokens couldn’t be turned into cash without crashing the market. Much of it was even made of tokens that Bankman-Fried and his friends had spun up themselves, such as FTT, Serum or Maps—the official currency of a nonsensical crypto-meets-mapping app—or were closely affiliated with, like Solana. While Bankman-Fried acknowledges the pile was worth something less than $100 billion—maybe he’d mark it down a third, he says—he maintains that he could have extracted quite a lot of real money from his holdings.</p><p>But he didn’t. Instead, Alameda borrowed billions of dollars from other crypto lenders—not FTX—and sunk them into more crypto bets. Publicly, Bankman-Fried presented himself as an ethical operator andcalled for regulationto rein in crypto’s worst excesses. But through his hedge fund, he’d actually become the market’s most degenerate gambler. I ask him why, if he really thought he could sell the tokens, he didn’t. “Why not, like, take some risk off?”</p><p>“OK. In retrospect, absolutely. That would’ve been the right, like, unambiguously the right thing to do,” he says. “But also it was just, like, hilariously well-capitalized.”</p><p>Near the peak of the great shitcoin boom, in April 2022, FTX hosted a lavish conference at a resort and casino in Nassau. It was Bankman-Fried’s coming out party. He got to share the stage with quarterback Tom Brady. Also there: former Prime Minister Tony Blair and ex-President Bill Clinton, who extended a fatherly hand when the young crypto executive seemed nervous. The author Michael Lewis, who’s working on a book about Bankman-Fried, praised him in a fawning interview onstage. “You’re breaking land speed records. And I don’t think people are really noticing what’s happened, just how dramatic the revolution has become,” Lewis said, asking when crypto would take over Wall Street.</p><p>The next month, thecrypto crash began. It started when a popular set of coins called Terra and Luna collapsed, wiping out $60 billion. Terra and Luna were almost openly a Ponzi scheme, but some of the biggest crypto funds had invested in them with borrowed money and went bankrupt. This made the lenders who’d lent billions of dollars to Alameda nervous. They asked Alameda to repay the loans, with real money. It needed billions of dollars, fast, or it would go bust.</p><p>There are two different versions of what happened next. Two people with knowledge of the matter told me that Ellison, by then the sole head of Alameda, had told her side of the story to her staff amid the crisis. Ellison said that she, Bankman-Fried and his two top lieutenants—Gary Wang and Nishad Singh—had discussed the shortfall. Instead of admitting Alameda’s failure, they decided to use FTX customer funds to cover it, according to the people. If that’s true, all four executives would’ve knowingly committed fraud. (Ellison, Wang and Singh didn’t respond to messages seeking comment.)</p><p>When I put this to Bankman-Fried, he screws up his eyes, furrows his eyebrows, puts his hands in his hair and thinks for a few seconds.</p><p>“So, it’s not how I remember what happened,” Bankman-Fried says. But he surprises me by acknowledging that there had been a meeting, post-Luna crash, where they debated what to do about Alameda’s debts. The way he tells it, he was packing for a trip to DC and “only kibitzing on parts of the discussion.” It didn’t seem like a crisis, he says. It was a matter of extending a bit more credit to a fund that already traded on margin and still had a pile of collateral worth way more than enough to cover the loan. (Although the pile of collateral was largely shitcoins.)</p><p>“That was the point at which Alameda’s margin position on FTX got, well, it got more leveraged substantially,” he says. “Obviously, in retrospect, we should’ve just said no. I sort of didn’t realize then how large the position had gotten.”</p><p>“You were all aware there was a chance this would not work,” I say.</p><p>“That’s right,” he says. “But I thought that the risk was substantially smaller.”</p><p>I try to imagine what he could’ve been thinking. If FTX had liquidated Alameda’s position, the fund would’ve gone bankrupt, and even if the exchange didn’t take direct losses, customers would’ve lost confidence in it. Bankman-Fried points out that the companies that lent money to Alameda might have failed, too, causing a hard-to-predict cascade of events.</p><p>“Now let’s say you don’t margin call Alameda,” I posit. “Maybe you think there’s like a 70% chance everything will be OK, it’ll all work out?”</p><p>“Yes, but also in the cases where it didn’t work out, I thought the downside was not nearly as high as it was,” he says. “I thought that there was the risk of a much smaller hole. I thought it was going to be manageable.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried pulls out his laptop (an Acer Predator) and opens a spreadsheet to show what he meant. It’s similar to thebalance sheethe reportedly showed investors when he was seeking a last-minute bailout, which he says consolidated FTX and Alameda’s positions because by then the fund had defaulted on its debt. On one line—labeled “What I *thought*”—he lists $8.9 billion in debts and way more than enough money to pay them: $9 billion in liquid assets, $15.4 billion in “less liquid” assets and $3.2 billion in “illiquid” ones. He tells me this was more or less the position he was considering when he had the meeting with the other executives.</p><p>“It looks naively to me like, you know, there’s still some significant liabilities out there, but, like, we should be able to cover it,” he says.</p><p>“So what’s the problem, then?”</p><p>Bankman-Fried points to another place on the spreadsheet, which he says shows the actual truth of the situation at the time of the meeting. This one shows similar numbers, but with $8 billion less liquid assets.</p><p>“What’s the difference between these two rows here?” he asks.</p><p>“You didn’t have $8 billion in cash that you thought you had,” I say.</p><p>“That’s correct. Yes.”</p><p>“You misplaced $8 billion?” I ask.</p><p>“Misaccounted,” Bankman-Fried says, sounding almost proud of his explanation. Sometimes, he says, customers would wire money to Alameda Research instead of sending it directly to FTX. (Some banks were more willing to work with the hedge fund than the exchange, for some reason.) He claims that somehow, FTX’s internal accounting system double-counted this money, essentially crediting it to both the exchange and the fund.</p><p>That still doesn’t explain why the money was gone. “Where did the $8 billion go?” I ask.</p><p>To answer, Bankman-Fried creates a new tab on the spreadsheet and starts typing. He lists Alameda and FTX’s biggest cash flows. One of the biggest expenses is paying a net $2.5 billion toBinance, a rival, to buy out its investment in FTX. He also lists $250 million for real estate, $1.5 billion for expenses, $4 billion for venture capital investments, $1.5 billion for acquisitions and $1 billion labeled “fuckups.” Even accounting for both firms’ profits, and all the venture capital money raised by FTX, it tallies to negative $6.5 billion.</p><p>Bankman-Fried is telling me that the billions of dollars customers wired to Alameda is gone simply because the companies spent way more than they made. He claims he paid so little attention to his expenses that he didn’t realize he was spending more than he was taking in. “I was real lazy about this mental math,” the former physics major says. He creates another column in his spreadsheet and types in much lower numbers to show what he thought he was spending at the time.</p><p>It seems to me like he is, without saying it exactly, blaming his underlings for FTX’s failure, especially Ellison, the head of Alameda. The two had dated and lived together at times. She was part of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund, which was supposed to distribute FTX and Alameda’s earnings to effective-altruist-approved causes. It seems unlikely she would’ve blown billions of dollars without asking. “People might take, like, the TLDR as, like, it was my ex-girlfriend’s fault,” I tell him. “That is sort of what you’re saying.”</p><p>“I think the biggest failure was that it wasn’t entirely clear whose fault it was,” he says.</p><p>Bankman-Fried tells me he has to make a call. After a while, the sun goes down and I’m hungry. I’m allowed to join a group of Bankman-Fried’s supporters for dinner, as long as I don’t mention their names.</p><p>With the curtains drawn, the living room looks considerably less grand than it does in pictures. I’ve been told that FTX employees gathered here amid the crisis, while Bankman-Fried worked in another apartment. Addled by stress and sleep deprivation, they wept and hugged one another. Most didn’t say goodbye as they left the island, one by one. Many flew back to their childhood homes to be with their parents.</p><p>The supporters at the dinner tell me they feel like the press has been unfair. They say that Bankman-Fried and his friends weren’t the polyamorous partiers the tabloids have portrayed and that they did little besides work. Earlier in the week, a Bahamian man who’d served as FTX’s round-the-clock chauffeur and gofer also told me the reports weren’t true. “People make it seem like this big<i>Wolf of Wall Street</i>thing,” he said. “Bro, it was a bunch of nerds.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87535c118f069e782e80762398d0a9c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1000\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Illustration: Maxime Mouysset for Bloomberg Businessweek</p><p>By the time I finish my plate of off-the-record rice and beans, Bankman-Fried is free again. We return to the study. He’s barefoot now, having balled up his gym socks and stuffed them behind a couch cushion. He lies on the couch, his computer on his lap. The light from the screen casts shadows of his curls on his forehead.</p><p>I notice a skin-colored patch on his arm. He tells me it’s a transdermal antidepressant, selegiline. I ask if he’s using it as a performance enhancer or to treat depression. “Nothing’s binary,” he says. “But I’ve been borderline depressed for my whole life.” He adds that he also sometimes takes Adderall—“10 milligrams at a time, a few times a day”—as did some of his colleagues, but that talk of drug use is overblown. “I don’t think that was the problem,” he says.</p><p>I tell Bankman-Fried my theory about his motivation, sidestepping the question of whether he misappropriated customer funds. Bankman-Fried denies that his world-saving goals made him willing to take giant gambles. As we talk more, it seems like he’s saying he made some kind of bet but hadn’t calculated the expected value properly.</p><p>“I was comfortable taking the risk that, like, I may end up kind of falling flat,” he says, staring at his computer screen, where he had pulled up a game and was leading an army of cartoon knights and fairies into battle. “But what actually happened was disastrously bad and, like, no significant chance of that happening would’ve made sense to risk, and that was a fuckup. Like, that was a mass miscalculation in downside.”</p><p>I read Bankman-Fried a post by Will MacAskill, one of the founders of the effective-altruism movement. He recruited Bankman-Fried into it when he was a junior at MIT and this year had joined the board of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund. On Nov. 11,MacAskill wrote on Twitterthat Bankman-Fried had betrayed him. “For years, the EA community has emphasized the importance of integrity, honesty and the respect of common-sense moral constraints,” MacAskill wrote. “If customer funds were misused, then Sam did not listen; he must have thought he was above such considerations.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried closes his eyes and pushes his toes against one arm of the couch, clenching the other arm with his hands. “That’s not how I view what happened,” he says. “But I did fuck up. I think really what I want to say is, like, I’m really fucking sorry. By far the worst thing about this is that it will tarnish the reputation of people who are dedicated to doing nothing but what they thought was best for the world.” Bankman-Fried trails off. On his computer screen, his army casts spells and swings swords unattended.</p><p>I ask what he’d say to people who are comparing him to the most famous Ponzi schemer of recent times. “Bernie Madoff also said he had good intentions and gave a lot to charity,” I say.</p><p>“FTX was a legitimate, profitable, thriving business. And I fucked up by, like, allowing a margin position to get too big on it. One that endangered the platform. It was a completely unnecessary and unforced error, which like maybe I got super unlucky on, but, like, that was my bad.”</p><p>“It fucking sucks,” he adds. “But it wasn’t inherent to what the business was. It was just a fuckup. A huge fuckup.”</p><p>To me, it doesn’t really seem like a fuckup. Even if I believe that he misplaced and accidentally spent $8 billion, he’s already told me that Alameda had been allowed to violate FTX’s margin rules. This wasn’t some little technical thing. He was so proud of FTX’s margining system that he’d been lobbying regulators for it to be used on US exchanges instead of traditional safeguards. In May, Bankman-Fried himself said on Twitter that exchanges should never extend credit to a fund and put other customers’ assets at risk. He wrote that the idea an exchange would even have that discretion was “scary.” I read him the tweets and ask: “Isn’t that, like, exactly what you did, right around that time?”</p><p>“Yeah, I guess that’s kind of fair,” he says. Then he seems to claim that this was evidence the rules he was lobbying for were a good idea. “I think this is one of the things that would have stopped.”</p><p>“You had a rule on your platform. You didn’t follow it,” I say.</p><p>By now it’s past midnight, and—operating without the benefit of any prescription stimulants—I’m worn out. I ask Bankman-Fried if I can see the apartment’s deck before I leave. Outside, crickets chirp as we stand by the pool. The marina is dark, lit only by the spotlights of yachts. As I say goodbye, Bankman-Fried bites into a burger bun and starts talking about potential bailouts with one of his supporters.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-03 07:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152464265","content_text":"Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Halloween party are still hanging from a doorway. Two boxes of Legos sit on the floor of one bedroom. And then there are the shoes—dozens of sneakers and heels piled in the foyer, left behind by employees who fled the island of New Providence last month when his cryptocurrency exchangeFTX imploded.“It’s been an interesting few weeks,” Bankman-Fried says in a chipper tone as he greets me. It’s a muggy Saturday afternoon, eight days after FTX filed for bankruptcy. He’s shoeless, in white gym socks, a red T-shirt and wrinkled khaki shorts. His standard uniform.This isn’t part of the typical tour Bankman-Fried gave to the many reporters who came to tell the tale of the boy-genius-crypto-billionaire who slept on a beanbag chair next to his desk and only got rich so he could give it all away, and it’s easy to see why. The apartment is at the top of one of the luxury condo buildings that border a marina in a gated community called Albany. Outside, deckhands buff the stanchions of a 200-foot yacht owned by a fracking billionaire. A bronze replica of Wall Street’sCharging Bullstatue stands on the lawn, which is as manicured as the residents. I feel like I’ve crash-landed on an alien planet populated solely by the very rich and the people who work for them.Bankman-Fried leads me down a marble-floored hallway to a small bedroom, where he perches on a plush brown couch. Always known for being jittery, he taps his foot so hard it rattles a coffee table, smacks gum and rubs his index finger with his thumb like he’s twirling an invisible fidget spinner. But he seems almost cheerful as he explains why he’s invited me into his 12,000-square-foot bolthole, against the advice of his lawyers, even as investigators from theUS Department of Justice probewhether he used customers’ funds to prop up his hedge fund, a crime that could send him to prison for years. (Spoiler alert: It sure looks like he did.)“What I’m focusing on is what I can do, right now, to try and make things as right as possible,” Bankman-Fried says. “I can’t do that if I’m just focused on covering my ass.”But he seems to be doing just that, with me here and all along the apology tour he’ll later embark on, which will include a video appearance at aNew York Timesconference and an interview onGood Morning America. He’s been trying to blame his firm’s failure on a hazy combination of comically poor bookkeeping, wildly misjudged risks and complete ignorance of what his hedge fund was doing. In other words, an alumnus of both MIT and the elite Wall Street trading firmJane Streetis arguing that he was just dumb with the numbers—not pulling a conscious fraud. Talking in detail to journalists about what’s certain to be the subject of extensive litigation seems like an unusual strategy, but it makes sense: The press helped him create his only-honest-man-in-crypto image, so why not use them to talk his way out of trouble?Bankman-Fried after an interview onBloomberg Wealth With David Rubensteinon Aug. 17, 2022.Photographer: Jeenah Moon/BloombergHe doesn’t say so, but one reason he might be willing to speak with me is that I’m one of the reporters who helped build him up. After spending two days at FTX’s offices in February, I flew past the brightred flagsat his company—its lack of corporate governance, the ties to his Alameda Research hedge fund, its profligate spending on marketing, the fact that it operated largely outside US jurisdiction. Iwrote a storyfocused on whether Bankman-Fried would follow through on his plans to donate huge sums to charity and his connections to an unusual philanthropic movement calledeffective altruism.It wasn’t the most embarrassingly puffy of the many puff pieces that came out about him. (“After my interview with SBF, I was convinced: I was talking to a future trillionaire,” one writer said in an article commissioned by a venture capital firm.) But my tone wasn’t entirely dissimilar. “Bankman-Fried is a thought experiment from a college philosophy seminar come to life,” I wrote. “Should someone who wants to save the world first amass as much money and power as possible, or will the pursuit corrupt him along the way?” Now it seems pretty clear that a better question would’ve been whether the business was ascam from the start.I tell Bankman-Fried I want to talk about the decisions that led to FTX’s collapse, and why he took them. Earlier in the week, inlate-night DM exchangeswith aVoxreporter and on a phone call with a YouTuber, he made comments that many interpreted as an admission that everything he said was a lie. (“So the ethics stuff, mostly a front?” theVoxreporter asked. “Yeah,” Bankman-Fried replied.) He’d spoken so cynically about his motivations that to many it seemed like a comic book character was pulling off his mask to reveal the villain who’d been hiding there all along.I set out on this visit with a different working theory. Maybe I was feeling the tug of my past reporting, but I still didn’t think the talk about charity was all made up. Since he was a teenager, Bankman-Fried has described himself as utilitarian—following the philosophy that the correct action is the one likely to result in the greatest good for the greatest number of people. He said his endgame was making and donating enough money to prevent pandemics and stop runaway artificial intelligence from destroying humanity. Faced with a crisis, and believing he was the hero of his own sci-fi movie, he might’ve thought it was right to make a crazy, even illegal, gamble to save his company.To be clear, if that’s what happened, it’s the logic of a megalomaniac, not a martyr. The money wasn’t his to gamble with, and “the ends justify the means” is a cliché of bad ethics. But if it’s what he believed, he might still think he’d made the right decision, even if it didn’t work out. It seemed to me that’s what he meant when he messagedVox, “The worst quadrant is sketchy + lose. The best is win + ???” I want to probe that, in part because it might get him to talk more candidly about what had happened to his customers’ money.I decide to approach the topic gingerly, on terms I think he’ll relate to, as it seems he’s in less of a crime-confess-y mood. He’s said he likes to evaluate decisions in terms of expected value—the odds of success times the likely payoff—so I begin by asking: “Should I judge you by your impact, or by the expected value of your decision?”“When all is said and done, what matters is your actual realized impact. Like, that’s what actually matters to the world,” he says. “But, obviously, there’s luck.”That’s the in I’m looking for. For the next 11 hours—with breaks for fundraising calls and a very awkward dinner—I try to get him to tell me exactly what he meant. He denies that he’s committed fraud or lied to anyone and blames FTX’s failure on his sloppiness and inattention. But at points it seems like he’s saying he gotunlucky, or miscalculated the odds.Bankman-Fried tells me he’s still got a chance to raise $8 billion to save his company. He seems delusional, or committed to pretending this is still an error he can fix, and either way, the few supporters remaining at his penthouse seem unlikely to set him straight. The grim scene reminds me a bit of the end ofScarface, with Tony Montana holed up in his mansion, semi-incoherent, his unknown enemies sneaking closer. But instead of mountains of cocaine, Bankman-Fried is clinging to spreadsheet tabs filled with wildly optimistic cryptocurrency valuations.Think of FTX like an offshore casino. Customers sent in money, then gambled on the price of hundreds ofcryptocurrencies—not just Bitcoin or Ether, but more obscure coins. In crypto slang, the latter are called shitcoins, because almost no one knows what they’re for. But in the past few years, otherwise respectable people, from retired dentists to heads of state, convinced themselves that these coins werethe future of finance. Or at least that enough other people might think so to make the price go up. Bankman-Fried’s casino was growing so fast that earlier this year some of Silicon Valley’s top venture capitalists invested in it at a $32 billion valuation.The problem surfaced last month. After a rival crypto-casino kingpin raised concerns about FTX on Twitter, customers rushed to cash in their chips. But when Bankman-Fried’s casino opened the vault, their money wasn’t there. According to multiple news reports citing people familiar with the matter, it had been secretly lent to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, which had lost it in some mix of bad bets, insane spending and perhaps something even sketchier. John Ray III, the lawyer who’s now chief executive officer of the bankrupt exchange, has alleged in court that FTX covered up the loans using secret software.Bankman-Fried denies this again to me. Returning to the framework of expected value, I ask him if the decisions he made were correct.“I think that I’ve made a lot of plus-EV decisions and a few very large boneheaded decisions,” he says. “Certainly in retrospect, those very large decisions were very bad, and may end up overwhelming everything else.”The chain of events, in his telling, started about four years ago. Bankman-Fried was in Hong Kong, where he’d moved from Berkeley, California, with a small group of friends from the effective-altruism community. Together they ran a successful startup crypto hedge fund,Alameda Research. (The name itself was an early example of his casual attitude toward rules—it was chosen to avoid scrutiny from banks, which frequently closed its accounts. “If we named our company like, Shitcoin Daytraders Inc., they’d probably just reject us,” Bankman-Fried told a podcaster in 2021. “But, I mean, no one doesn’t like research.”)The fund had made millions of dollars exploiting inefficiencies across cryptocurrency exchanges. (Ex-employees, even those otherwise critical of Bankman-Fried, have said this is true, though some have said Alameda then lost some of that money because of bad trades and mismanagement.) Bankman-Fried and his friends began considering starting their own exchange—what would become FTX.The way Bankman-Fried later described this decision reveals his attitude toward risk. He estimated there was an 80% chance the exchange would fail to attract enough customers. But he’s said one should always take a bet, even a long-shot one, if the expected value is positive, calling this stance “risk neutral.” But it actually meant he would take risks that to a normal person sound insane. “As an individual, to make a bet where it’s like, ‘I’m going to gamble my $10 billion and either get $20 billion or $0, with equal probability,’ would be madness,” Rob Wiblin, host of an effective-altruism podcast, said to Bankman-Fried in April. “But from an altruistic point of view, it’s not so crazy.”“Completely agree,” Bankman-Fried replied. He told another interviewer that he’d make a bet described as a chance of “51% you double the earth out somewhere else, 49% it all disappears.”Bankman-Fried and his friends jump-started FTX by having Alameda provide liquidity. It was a huge conflict of interest. Imagine if the top executives at an online poker site also entered its high-stakes tournaments—the temptation to cheat by peeking at other players’ cards would be huge. But Bankman-Fried assured customers that Alameda would play by the same rules as everyone else, and enough people came to trade that FTX took off. “Having Alameda provide liquidity on FTX early on was the right decision, because I think that helped make FTX a great product for users, even though it obviously ended up backfiring,” Bankman-Fried tells me.Part of FTX’s appeal was that it was mostly a derivatives exchange, which allowed customers to trade “on margin,” meaning with borrowed money. That’s a key to his defense. Bankman-Fried argues no one should be surprised that big traders on FTX, including Alameda, were borrowing from the exchange, and that his fund’s position just somehow got out of hand. “Everyone was borrowing and lending,” he says. “That’s been its calling card.” But FTX’s normal margin system, crypto traders tell me, would never have permitted anyone to accumulate a debt that looked like Alameda’s. When I ask if Alameda had to follow the same margin rules as other traders, he admits the fund did not. “There was more leeway,” he says.That wouldn’t have been so important had Alameda stuck to its original trading strategy of relatively low-risk arbitrage trades. But in 2020 and 2021, as Bankman-Fried became the face of FTX, amajor political donorand a favorite of Silicon Valley, Alameda faced more competition in that market-making business. It shifted its strategy to, essentially, gambling on shitcoins.As Caroline Ellison, then Alameda’s co-CEO, explained in aMarch 2021 post on Twitter: “The way to really make money is figure out when the market is going to go up and get balls long before that,” she wrote, adding that she’d learned the strategy from the classic market-manipulation memoir,Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.Her co-CEO said in another tweet that a profitable strategy was buying Dogecoin becauseElon Musktweeted about it.The reason they were bragging about what sounded like a high schooler’s tactics was that it was working better than anyone knew. When we spoke in February 2022, Bankman-Fried told me that Alameda had made $1 billion the previous year. He now says that was Alameda’s arbitrage profits. On top of that, its shitcoins gained tens of billions of dollars of value, at least on paper. “If you mark everything to market, I do believe at one point my net worth got to $100 billion,” Bankman-Fried says.Any trader would know this wasn’t nearly as good as it sounded. The large pile of tokens couldn’t be turned into cash without crashing the market. Much of it was even made of tokens that Bankman-Fried and his friends had spun up themselves, such as FTT, Serum or Maps—the official currency of a nonsensical crypto-meets-mapping app—or were closely affiliated with, like Solana. While Bankman-Fried acknowledges the pile was worth something less than $100 billion—maybe he’d mark it down a third, he says—he maintains that he could have extracted quite a lot of real money from his holdings.But he didn’t. Instead, Alameda borrowed billions of dollars from other crypto lenders—not FTX—and sunk them into more crypto bets. Publicly, Bankman-Fried presented himself as an ethical operator andcalled for regulationto rein in crypto’s worst excesses. But through his hedge fund, he’d actually become the market’s most degenerate gambler. I ask him why, if he really thought he could sell the tokens, he didn’t. “Why not, like, take some risk off?”“OK. In retrospect, absolutely. That would’ve been the right, like, unambiguously the right thing to do,” he says. “But also it was just, like, hilariously well-capitalized.”Near the peak of the great shitcoin boom, in April 2022, FTX hosted a lavish conference at a resort and casino in Nassau. It was Bankman-Fried’s coming out party. He got to share the stage with quarterback Tom Brady. Also there: former Prime Minister Tony Blair and ex-President Bill Clinton, who extended a fatherly hand when the young crypto executive seemed nervous. The author Michael Lewis, who’s working on a book about Bankman-Fried, praised him in a fawning interview onstage. “You’re breaking land speed records. And I don’t think people are really noticing what’s happened, just how dramatic the revolution has become,” Lewis said, asking when crypto would take over Wall Street.The next month, thecrypto crash began. It started when a popular set of coins called Terra and Luna collapsed, wiping out $60 billion. Terra and Luna were almost openly a Ponzi scheme, but some of the biggest crypto funds had invested in them with borrowed money and went bankrupt. This made the lenders who’d lent billions of dollars to Alameda nervous. They asked Alameda to repay the loans, with real money. It needed billions of dollars, fast, or it would go bust.There are two different versions of what happened next. Two people with knowledge of the matter told me that Ellison, by then the sole head of Alameda, had told her side of the story to her staff amid the crisis. Ellison said that she, Bankman-Fried and his two top lieutenants—Gary Wang and Nishad Singh—had discussed the shortfall. Instead of admitting Alameda’s failure, they decided to use FTX customer funds to cover it, according to the people. If that’s true, all four executives would’ve knowingly committed fraud. (Ellison, Wang and Singh didn’t respond to messages seeking comment.)When I put this to Bankman-Fried, he screws up his eyes, furrows his eyebrows, puts his hands in his hair and thinks for a few seconds.“So, it’s not how I remember what happened,” Bankman-Fried says. But he surprises me by acknowledging that there had been a meeting, post-Luna crash, where they debated what to do about Alameda’s debts. The way he tells it, he was packing for a trip to DC and “only kibitzing on parts of the discussion.” It didn’t seem like a crisis, he says. It was a matter of extending a bit more credit to a fund that already traded on margin and still had a pile of collateral worth way more than enough to cover the loan. (Although the pile of collateral was largely shitcoins.)“That was the point at which Alameda’s margin position on FTX got, well, it got more leveraged substantially,” he says. “Obviously, in retrospect, we should’ve just said no. I sort of didn’t realize then how large the position had gotten.”“You were all aware there was a chance this would not work,” I say.“That’s right,” he says. “But I thought that the risk was substantially smaller.”I try to imagine what he could’ve been thinking. If FTX had liquidated Alameda’s position, the fund would’ve gone bankrupt, and even if the exchange didn’t take direct losses, customers would’ve lost confidence in it. Bankman-Fried points out that the companies that lent money to Alameda might have failed, too, causing a hard-to-predict cascade of events.“Now let’s say you don’t margin call Alameda,” I posit. “Maybe you think there’s like a 70% chance everything will be OK, it’ll all work out?”“Yes, but also in the cases where it didn’t work out, I thought the downside was not nearly as high as it was,” he says. “I thought that there was the risk of a much smaller hole. I thought it was going to be manageable.”Bankman-Fried pulls out his laptop (an Acer Predator) and opens a spreadsheet to show what he meant. It’s similar to thebalance sheethe reportedly showed investors when he was seeking a last-minute bailout, which he says consolidated FTX and Alameda’s positions because by then the fund had defaulted on its debt. On one line—labeled “What I *thought*”—he lists $8.9 billion in debts and way more than enough money to pay them: $9 billion in liquid assets, $15.4 billion in “less liquid” assets and $3.2 billion in “illiquid” ones. He tells me this was more or less the position he was considering when he had the meeting with the other executives.“It looks naively to me like, you know, there’s still some significant liabilities out there, but, like, we should be able to cover it,” he says.“So what’s the problem, then?”Bankman-Fried points to another place on the spreadsheet, which he says shows the actual truth of the situation at the time of the meeting. This one shows similar numbers, but with $8 billion less liquid assets.“What’s the difference between these two rows here?” he asks.“You didn’t have $8 billion in cash that you thought you had,” I say.“That’s correct. Yes.”“You misplaced $8 billion?” I ask.“Misaccounted,” Bankman-Fried says, sounding almost proud of his explanation. Sometimes, he says, customers would wire money to Alameda Research instead of sending it directly to FTX. (Some banks were more willing to work with the hedge fund than the exchange, for some reason.) He claims that somehow, FTX’s internal accounting system double-counted this money, essentially crediting it to both the exchange and the fund.That still doesn’t explain why the money was gone. “Where did the $8 billion go?” I ask.To answer, Bankman-Fried creates a new tab on the spreadsheet and starts typing. He lists Alameda and FTX’s biggest cash flows. One of the biggest expenses is paying a net $2.5 billion toBinance, a rival, to buy out its investment in FTX. He also lists $250 million for real estate, $1.5 billion for expenses, $4 billion for venture capital investments, $1.5 billion for acquisitions and $1 billion labeled “fuckups.” Even accounting for both firms’ profits, and all the venture capital money raised by FTX, it tallies to negative $6.5 billion.Bankman-Fried is telling me that the billions of dollars customers wired to Alameda is gone simply because the companies spent way more than they made. He claims he paid so little attention to his expenses that he didn’t realize he was spending more than he was taking in. “I was real lazy about this mental math,” the former physics major says. He creates another column in his spreadsheet and types in much lower numbers to show what he thought he was spending at the time.It seems to me like he is, without saying it exactly, blaming his underlings for FTX’s failure, especially Ellison, the head of Alameda. The two had dated and lived together at times. She was part of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund, which was supposed to distribute FTX and Alameda’s earnings to effective-altruist-approved causes. It seems unlikely she would’ve blown billions of dollars without asking. “People might take, like, the TLDR as, like, it was my ex-girlfriend’s fault,” I tell him. “That is sort of what you’re saying.”“I think the biggest failure was that it wasn’t entirely clear whose fault it was,” he says.Bankman-Fried tells me he has to make a call. After a while, the sun goes down and I’m hungry. I’m allowed to join a group of Bankman-Fried’s supporters for dinner, as long as I don’t mention their names.With the curtains drawn, the living room looks considerably less grand than it does in pictures. I’ve been told that FTX employees gathered here amid the crisis, while Bankman-Fried worked in another apartment. Addled by stress and sleep deprivation, they wept and hugged one another. Most didn’t say goodbye as they left the island, one by one. Many flew back to their childhood homes to be with their parents.The supporters at the dinner tell me they feel like the press has been unfair. They say that Bankman-Fried and his friends weren’t the polyamorous partiers the tabloids have portrayed and that they did little besides work. Earlier in the week, a Bahamian man who’d served as FTX’s round-the-clock chauffeur and gofer also told me the reports weren’t true. “People make it seem like this bigWolf of Wall Streetthing,” he said. “Bro, it was a bunch of nerds.”Illustration: Maxime Mouysset for Bloomberg BusinessweekBy the time I finish my plate of off-the-record rice and beans, Bankman-Fried is free again. We return to the study. He’s barefoot now, having balled up his gym socks and stuffed them behind a couch cushion. He lies on the couch, his computer on his lap. The light from the screen casts shadows of his curls on his forehead.I notice a skin-colored patch on his arm. He tells me it’s a transdermal antidepressant, selegiline. I ask if he’s using it as a performance enhancer or to treat depression. “Nothing’s binary,” he says. “But I’ve been borderline depressed for my whole life.” He adds that he also sometimes takes Adderall—“10 milligrams at a time, a few times a day”—as did some of his colleagues, but that talk of drug use is overblown. “I don’t think that was the problem,” he says.I tell Bankman-Fried my theory about his motivation, sidestepping the question of whether he misappropriated customer funds. Bankman-Fried denies that his world-saving goals made him willing to take giant gambles. As we talk more, it seems like he’s saying he made some kind of bet but hadn’t calculated the expected value properly.“I was comfortable taking the risk that, like, I may end up kind of falling flat,” he says, staring at his computer screen, where he had pulled up a game and was leading an army of cartoon knights and fairies into battle. “But what actually happened was disastrously bad and, like, no significant chance of that happening would’ve made sense to risk, and that was a fuckup. Like, that was a mass miscalculation in downside.”I read Bankman-Fried a post by Will MacAskill, one of the founders of the effective-altruism movement. He recruited Bankman-Fried into it when he was a junior at MIT and this year had joined the board of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund. On Nov. 11,MacAskill wrote on Twitterthat Bankman-Fried had betrayed him. “For years, the EA community has emphasized the importance of integrity, honesty and the respect of common-sense moral constraints,” MacAskill wrote. “If customer funds were misused, then Sam did not listen; he must have thought he was above such considerations.”Bankman-Fried closes his eyes and pushes his toes against one arm of the couch, clenching the other arm with his hands. “That’s not how I view what happened,” he says. “But I did fuck up. I think really what I want to say is, like, I’m really fucking sorry. By far the worst thing about this is that it will tarnish the reputation of people who are dedicated to doing nothing but what they thought was best for the world.” Bankman-Fried trails off. On his computer screen, his army casts spells and swings swords unattended.I ask what he’d say to people who are comparing him to the most famous Ponzi schemer of recent times. “Bernie Madoff also said he had good intentions and gave a lot to charity,” I say.“FTX was a legitimate, profitable, thriving business. And I fucked up by, like, allowing a margin position to get too big on it. One that endangered the platform. It was a completely unnecessary and unforced error, which like maybe I got super unlucky on, but, like, that was my bad.”“It fucking sucks,” he adds. “But it wasn’t inherent to what the business was. It was just a fuckup. A huge fuckup.”To me, it doesn’t really seem like a fuckup. Even if I believe that he misplaced and accidentally spent $8 billion, he’s already told me that Alameda had been allowed to violate FTX’s margin rules. This wasn’t some little technical thing. He was so proud of FTX’s margining system that he’d been lobbying regulators for it to be used on US exchanges instead of traditional safeguards. In May, Bankman-Fried himself said on Twitter that exchanges should never extend credit to a fund and put other customers’ assets at risk. He wrote that the idea an exchange would even have that discretion was “scary.” I read him the tweets and ask: “Isn’t that, like, exactly what you did, right around that time?”“Yeah, I guess that’s kind of fair,” he says. Then he seems to claim that this was evidence the rules he was lobbying for were a good idea. “I think this is one of the things that would have stopped.”“You had a rule on your platform. You didn’t follow it,” I say.By now it’s past midnight, and—operating without the benefit of any prescription stimulants—I’m worn out. I ask Bankman-Fried if I can see the apartment’s deck before I leave. Outside, crickets chirp as we stand by the pool. The marina is dark, lit only by the spotlights of yachts. As I say goodbye, Bankman-Fried bites into a burger bun and starts talking about potential bailouts with one of his supporters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}