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2021-06-18

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2021-06-18

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More than 50% chance Federal Reserve hikes rates by end of 2023: Goldman Sachs

2021-06-16

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ContextLogic gained as much as 10% a few minutes ago

2021-06-16

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2021-06-16

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Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets

2021-06-15

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Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time

2021-06-15

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Singapore Financial Regulator Reprimands AIA, Aviva, Prudential

2021-06-15

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Why Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings

2021-06-15

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2021-06-15

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Why Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings

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20:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"More than 50% chance Federal Reserve hikes rates by end of 2023: Goldman Sachs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144493207","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Let the handicapping amongst those on Wall Street begin on when the Fed may officially kick off an i","content":"<p>Let the handicapping amongst those on Wall Street begin on when the Fed may officially kick off an interest rate hiking cycle.</p>\n<p>\"We have changed our forecast of the timing of the first hike to 2023Q3, from 2024Q1 previously,\" Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said in a research note Thursday. \"However, we see the odds of a hike by the end of 2023 as only modestly better than 50% because liftoff could easily be derailed by lower-than-expected inflation or a sharper deceleration in growth as fiscal support fades.\"</p>\n<p>Serving as the gasoline on the interest rate increase debate about to ensue is none other than the Federal Reserve.</p>\n<p>The Fed on Wednesday held interest rates at near zero. But with the economic recovery from the pandemic gaining steam, Fed officials penciled in two rate hikes by the end of 2023. What's more, Fed chief Jerome Powell told reporters after the decision the Fed began discussing the tapering of bond purchases.</p>\n<p>\"We continue to expect the first hint about tapering in August or September, followed by a formal announcement in December that would begin the tapering process at the start of next year, though the risks lean toward an earlier start,\" Hatzius said.</p>\n<p>Equities markets globally — which have been sent skyrocketing this past year amid all the cheap money sloshing around the financial system from the Fed — reacted negatively to the Fed's hawkish musings. Dow futures tanked more than 120 points Thursday morning, gold and copper prices came under pressure and high-flying tech stocks (which have benefited from low rates) such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> and Amazon continued to have a bearish bid.</p>\n<p>\"As we have described elsewhere, we don’t think that tapering the quantitive easing program will create tangible stress to the economy or markets, and in fact think that the biggest risk today would be an overheating paradigm where it’s hard to predict how high input, or wage, costs could get. Markets are likely to adjust accordingly in some areas, such as extremely distorted real rates across much of the yield curve, but we believe the markets will ultimately cheer a return to normalcy,\" explained Rick Rieder, BlackRock's<b>&nbsp;</b>chief investment officer of global fixed income.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>More than 50% chance Federal Reserve hikes rates by end of 2023: Goldman Sachs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMore than 50% chance Federal Reserve hikes rates by end of 2023: Goldman Sachs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 20:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-than-50-chance-federal-reserve-hikes-rates-by-end-of-2023-goldman-sachs-121932176.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Let the handicapping amongst those on Wall Street begin on when the Fed may officially kick off an interest rate hiking cycle.\n\"We have changed our forecast of the timing of the first hike to 2023Q3, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-than-50-chance-federal-reserve-hikes-rates-by-end-of-2023-goldman-sachs-121932176.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DOW":"陶氏化学","GS":"高盛","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-than-50-chance-federal-reserve-hikes-rates-by-end-of-2023-goldman-sachs-121932176.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2144493207","content_text":"Let the handicapping amongst those on Wall Street begin on when the Fed may officially kick off an interest rate hiking cycle.\n\"We have changed our forecast of the timing of the first hike to 2023Q3, from 2024Q1 previously,\" Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said in a research note Thursday. \"However, we see the odds of a hike by the end of 2023 as only modestly better than 50% because liftoff could easily be derailed by lower-than-expected inflation or a sharper deceleration in growth as fiscal support fades.\"\nServing as the gasoline on the interest rate increase debate about to ensue is none other than the Federal Reserve.\nThe Fed on Wednesday held interest rates at near zero. But with the economic recovery from the pandemic gaining steam, Fed officials penciled in two rate hikes by the end of 2023. What's more, Fed chief Jerome Powell told reporters after the decision the Fed began discussing the tapering of bond purchases.\n\"We continue to expect the first hint about tapering in August or September, followed by a formal announcement in December that would begin the tapering process at the start of next year, though the risks lean toward an earlier start,\" Hatzius said.\nEquities markets globally — which have been sent skyrocketing this past year amid all the cheap money sloshing around the financial system from the Fed — reacted negatively to the Fed's hawkish musings. Dow futures tanked more than 120 points Thursday morning, gold and copper prices came under pressure and high-flying tech stocks (which have benefited from low rates) such as Facebook and Amazon continued to have a bearish bid.\n\"As we have described elsewhere, we don’t think that tapering the quantitive easing program will create tangible stress to the economy or markets, and in fact think that the biggest risk today would be an overheating paradigm where it’s hard to predict how high input, or wage, costs could get. Markets are likely to adjust accordingly in some areas, such as extremely distorted real rates across much of the yield curve, but we believe the markets will ultimately cheer a return to normalcy,\" explained Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160886669,"gmtCreate":1623780113251,"gmtModify":1703819307879,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160886669","repostId":"1185254731","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185254731","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623764438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185254731?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ContextLogic gained as much as 10% a few minutes ago","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185254731","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 15) ContextLogic gained as much as 10% a few minutes ago.  ContextLogic gained nearly 6% for n","content":"<p>(June&nbsp;15)&nbsp;ContextLogic gained as much as 10%&nbsp;a few minutes ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;ContextLogic gained&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;6%&nbsp;for&nbsp;now.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f3eeb6c29b019970adceac690d15c3\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>ContextLogic&nbsp;signed a two-year partnership with an ecommerce platform,PrestaShop&nbsp;yesterday.</p>\n<p>More than 300,000 merchants and brands on the PrestaShop platform will be able to easily sell to millions of consumers on the Wish marketplace.</p>\n<p>Alan Small, Senior Business Development Manager for Wish in Europe said: “Wish serves millions of consumers around the world by providing high-quality products at affordable prices and a personalized, entertaining shopping experience. Partnering with PrestaShop will enable us to offer our consumers even more quality merchants and brands and to provide Prestashop merchants with a global platform to transact on.”</p>\n<p>Last week,the company's shares surged on attracting attention on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ContextLogic gained as much as 10% a few minutes ago</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nContextLogic gained as much as 10% a few minutes ago\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 21:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June&nbsp;15)&nbsp;ContextLogic gained as much as 10%&nbsp;a few minutes ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;ContextLogic gained&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;6%&nbsp;for&nbsp;now.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f3eeb6c29b019970adceac690d15c3\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>ContextLogic&nbsp;signed a two-year partnership with an ecommerce platform,PrestaShop&nbsp;yesterday.</p>\n<p>More than 300,000 merchants and brands on the PrestaShop platform will be able to easily sell to millions of consumers on the Wish marketplace.</p>\n<p>Alan Small, Senior Business Development Manager for Wish in Europe said: “Wish serves millions of consumers around the world by providing high-quality products at affordable prices and a personalized, entertaining shopping experience. Partnering with PrestaShop will enable us to offer our consumers even more quality merchants and brands and to provide Prestashop merchants with a global platform to transact on.”</p>\n<p>Last week,the company's shares surged on attracting attention on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185254731","content_text":"(June 15) ContextLogic gained as much as 10% a few minutes ago.  ContextLogic gained nearly 6% for now.\n\nContextLogic signed a two-year partnership with an ecommerce platform,PrestaShop yesterday.\nMore than 300,000 merchants and brands on the PrestaShop platform will be able to easily sell to millions of consumers on the Wish marketplace.\nAlan Small, Senior Business Development Manager for Wish in Europe said: “Wish serves millions of consumers around the world by providing high-quality products at affordable prices and a personalized, entertaining shopping experience. Partnering with PrestaShop will enable us to offer our consumers even more quality merchants and brands and to provide Prestashop merchants with a global platform to transact on.”\nLast week,the company's shares surged on attracting attention on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160886833,"gmtCreate":1623780102422,"gmtModify":1703819311779,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160886833","repostId":"1193362930","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160888949,"gmtCreate":1623779984981,"gmtModify":1703819306256,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160888949","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187140285,"gmtCreate":1623747720447,"gmtModify":1704210280100,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187140285","repostId":"1167720481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167720481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167720481?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167720481","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.So what does AAPL do with all of the cash","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>\n <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>\n <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>\n <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p>\n<p>The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p><b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p>\n<p>So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p>\n<p>So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p><b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p>\n<p>GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p>\n<p>When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p>\n<p><b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p>\n<p>AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p>\n<p>So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p>\n<p>I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p>\n<p>Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p>Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p>By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167720481","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.\nApple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.\nEventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIn 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.\nThe market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation & gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nApple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is\nSo what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&D]. In 2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.\nSo what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's board authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost $23 billion in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.\n(Source: Apple)\nMeme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market\nGameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME & AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nWhat's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.\nWhen investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN) has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.\n(Source:multpl.com)\nLaying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable\nAAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.\nSo the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.\nI believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In 2018 Services generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.\nServices are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nWearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nBy the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.\n(Source: Apple)\nConclusion\nThe meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187156564,"gmtCreate":1623747609458,"gmtModify":1704210275737,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187156564","repostId":"1186361842","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186361842","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623734918,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186361842?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 13:28","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Financial Regulator Reprimands AIA, Aviva, Prudential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186361842","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Singapore’s financial regulator reprimanded the local entities of AIA Group Ltd., Aviva Plc and Prud","content":"<p>Singapore’s financial regulator reprimanded the local entities of AIA Group Ltd., Aviva Plc and Prudential Plc for breaching requirements related to risk management and supervisors’ pay.</p>\n<p>The Monetary Authority of Singapore found numerous instances where supervisors at these firms were paid in contravention of requirements under the Financial Advisers Act, relating to the sale of investment products and premium life policies, it said in a statement on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>MAS also reprimanded Peter Tan Shou Yi, a consultant engaged by Aviva in Singapore, for accepting remuneration in breach of regulatory requirements, and the insurance firm’s local Chief Executive Officer Chee Boon Chai Lionel, for his failure to discharge the duties of his office.</p>\n<p>“Our requirements on remuneration practices relating to the sale of investment and life insurance products aim to promote good sales conduct in the financial advisory industry,” MAS Deputy Managing Director Ho Hern Shin said in the statement. “We have dealt firmly with these financial institutions and individuals who have breached our regulations, to send a clear message to the industry on the importance of upholding high ethical standards.”</p>\n<p>MAS ordered Aviva Financial Advisers Pte Ltd. to appoint an independent external team to conduct a holistic review of the company’s internal control processes, and to perform call-backs to all customers before any sales are completed. These measures are still in place.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Financial Regulator Reprimands AIA, Aviva, Prudential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Financial Regulator Reprimands AIA, Aviva, Prudential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 13:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/singapore-financial-regulator-reprimands-aia-aviva-prudential><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Singapore’s financial regulator reprimanded the local entities of AIA Group Ltd., Aviva Plc and Prudential Plc for breaching requirements related to risk management and supervisors’ pay.\nThe Monetary ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/singapore-financial-regulator-reprimands-aia-aviva-prudential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"K6S.SI":"英国保诚","AIVAF":"Aviva Plc","PRU":"保德信金融","01299":"友邦保险","AAIGF":"AIA Group, Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/singapore-financial-regulator-reprimands-aia-aviva-prudential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186361842","content_text":"Singapore’s financial regulator reprimanded the local entities of AIA Group Ltd., Aviva Plc and Prudential Plc for breaching requirements related to risk management and supervisors’ pay.\nThe Monetary Authority of Singapore found numerous instances where supervisors at these firms were paid in contravention of requirements under the Financial Advisers Act, relating to the sale of investment products and premium life policies, it said in a statement on Tuesday.\nMAS also reprimanded Peter Tan Shou Yi, a consultant engaged by Aviva in Singapore, for accepting remuneration in breach of regulatory requirements, and the insurance firm’s local Chief Executive Officer Chee Boon Chai Lionel, for his failure to discharge the duties of his office.\n“Our requirements on remuneration practices relating to the sale of investment and life insurance products aim to promote good sales conduct in the financial advisory industry,” MAS Deputy Managing Director Ho Hern Shin said in the statement. “We have dealt firmly with these financial institutions and individuals who have breached our regulations, to send a clear message to the industry on the importance of upholding high ethical standards.”\nMAS ordered Aviva Financial Advisers Pte Ltd. to appoint an independent external team to conduct a holistic review of the company’s internal control processes, and to perform call-backs to all customers before any sales are completed. These measures are still in place.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187156381,"gmtCreate":1623747599843,"gmtModify":1704210271842,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187156381","repostId":"1140381227","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140381227","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623736805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140381227?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 14:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140381227","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Despite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.</li>\n <li>The firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond.</li>\n <li>Adobe’s scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.</li>\n <li>Strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4641d2a64b72a5def91db89c766c634\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1023\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>I. Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Despite rallying well over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) stock.</p>\n<p>Adobe's historical success with execution of a transition to a cloud-based subscription model will continue to drive strong revenue growth.</p>\n<p>The firm is also well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond, however, many of these trends and growth opportunities are unrecognized.</p>\n<p>Adobe's scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.</p>\n<p>Lastly, strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600 in a bull scenario.</p>\n<p><b>II. Company Overview</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f64603318c032d51062fefbac14e0a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Adobe operates worldwide, offering software and services used by professionals, marketers, students, and more for creating, managing, measuring, and engaging with compelling content and experiences. As of&nbsp;Q1 FY 2021, the firm generates their revenue from three main segments: Digital Media (~73% of revenues), Digital Experience (~24%), and Publishing &amp; Advertising (~3%).</p>\n<p>The digital media segment includes their most well-known product, Creative Cloud, as well as Document Cloud. Creative Cloud is a diverse toolkit built for creating, publishing, and promoting digital content. Some of the most well-known applications include Photoshop and Illustrator. Adobe Document Cloud is gaining momentum against pure-play firms like DocuSign and is becoming a fierce competitor, especially with regard to small and medium-sized businesses.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0cc4cdfcefc85d46031470ea14b0b96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Figure 2.1: All Adobe Creative Cloud and Document Cloud tools. Source:Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p>The Digital Experience Cloud is designed to help users manage, measure, automate, and optimize customer experiences and customer engagement. Adobe has done a great job expanding into various industries through this segment, including retail, media, financial services, technology, education, and more. The segment has been slowly increasing in size and can be expected to provide long-term support to Adobe's strong revenue growth.</p>\n<p>The third segment, formerly known as Print &amp; Publishing, was renamed last quarter to \"Publishing &amp; Advertising\", as Adobe shifted the revenues from their advertising portion of Digital Experience to this new segment. With the demand of print on the decline, this reclassification allows for a more accurate balance of product divisions. With data from only one quarter of this new classification, it's hard to evaluate the performance of advertising, but there should be more clarity over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87624e36a52106e31d0d80466051fbed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"><span>(Figure 2.2: Some large organizations and industries using Experience Cloud. Source: Personal Pitch Deck;Adobe Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p><b>III. Growth Drivers1) Digital Business Transformation</b></p>\n<p>Historically, Adobe has been one of the most successful firms in migrating a user base from a traditional one-time license-based model to a cloud-based subscription revenue model. A cloud-based subscription model is extremely crucial as it allows technology firms to see more stability in future revenue streams. As of last quarter, Adobe generates approximately 83% of revenues through a recurring stream. For analysts and investors, this gives confidence and a much clearer indication as to the quality and consistency of cash flows. It also allows cloud firms to strengthen margins and benefit from scale, which we already see with Adobe. Subscription revenues are derived from the Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, and the new Publishing &amp; Advertising Segment (not accounted for below).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae29c71332820c9ea3bc7feb3e34f3f4\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>(Figure 3.1: Subscription Revenue by Segment &amp; Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model;Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)</span></p>\n<p>Annualized recurring revenue, a more software industry-specific metric, sheds light on how much revenue the firm generates over the course of a year that is guaranteed to occur again. This value doesn't just tell us how much revenue is generated from subscriptions and contracts, but also roughly the net value of expansions and churn. As ARR growth continues to be positive, we see that a) more customers are paying for services each year, and b) customers are on average spending more with Adobe. Essentially, net expansions are outweighing churn, which could mean either a) or b) above, or a mix of both. Since the quantifiable values of net expansion and churn are not readily available in public filings, it is too difficult to explore this avenue further.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c83308896f43725bd3fa575223afd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"><span>(Figure 3.2: ARR and % Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model; Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)</span></p>\n<p>Even with a plateau of subscription and ARR growth, we are seeing &gt;20% YoY revenue growth for a large-cap firm that has been a leader in the industry for well over a decade. The customer transition to the new revenue model is essentially complete and has consistently outperformed expectations, with stronger comparable margins across the board as Adobe continues to dominate in scale.</p>\n<p><b>2) Advertising, Analytics, &amp; New Tech</b></p>\n<p>Various profitable digital and marketing-related trends of 2021 and into the future include e-commerce, analytics, AI &amp; automation, augmented reality, and virtual reality. We typically see large software firms position themselves to benefit from tailwinds through R&amp;D to strengthen innovation, or M&amp;A to expand market share and product diversification.</p>\n<p>Adobe has recently completed over a dozen strategic acquisitions and investments that revolve around these key areas. The firm is taking care to ensure their most recent acquisitions will be effectively integrated into their respective platforms to set up strong market positioning. At the end of last year, we heard from management that the team was most likely not planning any large acquisitions in 2021, mainly because 1) speculative software is trading at high multiples and is overvalued, and 2) so they can focus on working with what they currently have.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d4103feae0e6b47c7e25cb538ad6a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"><span>(Figure 3.3: Acquisitions &amp; Investments, 2018-2021. Source: Bloomberg)</span></p>\n<p>Spending about 17% of revenues on R&amp;D as of last quarter, the firm has utilized their capital efficiently to foster innovation and a competitive edge. Adobe most recently has worked to expand the breadth of their Creative Cloud tools - especially ones designed for mobile devices - to increase the appeal of their products to different user groups in new or unique markets.</p>\n<p>Effective use of capital towards R&amp;D and M&amp;A initiatives led by strong margins and cash flows should allow the company to gain traction in new verticals and continue to accelerate revenue growth in the subscription segment.</p>\n<p><b>3) Market and Global Opportunity</b></p>\n<p>As the firm shed light on its Total Addressable Market [TAM] for the next few years in its financial analyst meeting of 2020, Adobe has huge plans to capture diverse user groups to an expanding TAM in Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud by 2023 - their largest areas for growth. The projected TAM in these segments from 2021 to 2023 has grown 40.4%*, 180.0%*, and 19.4%*, respectively. We see Adobe has the largest potential in its Digital Media segment through Creative Cloud and Document Cloud, although the market for its Experience Cloud has still grown modestly. In the figures below, we take a look at some of these numbers, and some of the plans outlined by Adobe.</p>\n<p><i>(* - numbers calculated from financial analyst meeting slides from2018,2019, and2020, respectively)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c05a2d3b73284773f38278b989864a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cbbdf4bdb593b40ba4be71e3483ac91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>(Figures 3.4, 3.5, &amp; 3.6: Total Addressable Market, various product lines. Source: Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p>Adobe's product depth, market share, customer loyalty, and high brand recognition for their flagship creative software over the past two decades make a strong case as to why the firm can be expected to successfully execute its intermediate-term growth strategies. Adobe is positioned well to benefit from growth in the total addressable market for all three segments and specific products.</p>\n<p>We have seen from earlier mentions of Adobe's expansion into key areas that they have already been successful in penetrating markets with web and mobile-based tools, and increased adoption of 3D development. This reinforces my view of Adobe's ability to continue to capture a larger share of the total addressable market for its Creative Cloud.</p>\n<p>The firm's deep customer loyalty and brand recognition will allow the firm to continue to grab larger shares of the CRM market with their Experience Cloud platform as the company continues to expand further into unique industries like healthcare and education.</p>\n<p>In this section, I'd also like to explore the importance of strong margins a bit further. According to Bloomberg data, Adobe's subscription revenue (which is generated from its cloud-based business) achieved a gross margin of 91% last quarter. If we look back to 2009, before Adobe began their transition to a cloud-based model, gross margin from subscription revenue was ~35%. For Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), another large-cap application software firm, gross margin last quarter from subscription was ~80%. Previously to their cloud model, in 2008, Salesforce's gross margin for the segment was ~87%.</p>\n<p>My conclusion is that a company like Salesforce has struggled to execute a long-term cloud strategy that would allow them to truly benefit from scale. With the growth in gross margin for Adobe from 35% to 91% (a 160% increase) from 2009 to 2021, this means that cost of revenue for subscription and cloud-based services has been decreasing proportionally, which makes sense for a strategy that has been executed successfully. Essentially, this gives firms like Adobe the upper hand with the ability to reinvest more capital into the business to achieve its strategic initiatives, such as those outlined in their financial analyst meeting slides above.</p>\n<p>Next is global opportunity. As consumer confidence continues to increase, Global IT Spending is already on the rebound, benefitting Adobe nicely. Results for Q1 FY2021 gave insight toward how enterprises are increasing software spending again post-pandemic, with total revenue up about 26% over the previous quarter. This, along with Adobe's solid performance during the pandemic, prove how strong the company's fundamentals really are.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, Adobe currently generates ~58% of revenues from the Americas, which means that they already have proven success in other areas globally. If Adobe can increase exposure specifically in EMEA it can be lucrative as emerging markets are expected to outperform and benefit from increased foreign investment. There is more to be explored in this area of expansion.</p>\n<p><b>IV. Major Risks</b></p>\n<p>Although subscription growth is beginning to plateau at about 20% YoY, in the next few years, it may begin to decline. This means Adobe must work harder in gaining a competitive edge, most likely through M&amp;A and R&amp;D. If Adobe does not effectively integrate its acquisitions into its platforms, it can impact margins short-term and prove to be inefficient use of capital. With a strong cash flow and relatively small debt load, even in this scenario, I don't believe it would impact Adobe's ability to generate cash flows intermediate to long term.</p>\n<p>According to an analysis of Porter's Five Forces, the application software subsector has a high degree of competition and a medium threat of substitutes. Currently, Salesforce dominates the relationship management space. Adobe is gaining traction, but due to the long enterprise sales cycle nature of the industry, there may be a lag in a shift to an environment that is more favorable for Adobe's Experience Cloud growth. Therefore, stock price may not accurately reflect the success of this segment immediately.</p>\n<p>Software products are reliant on the same enterprise IT budget of a given firm. Adobe and other large-cap application software firms may have to develop a strategy to reduce costs and pricing short-term. However, with strong roots in the industry, a successful business model, and a long sales cycle, I don't see this having a huge impact on Adobe's market share.</p>\n<p>Although consumer confidence has continued to increase post-pandemic, there are still unprecedented effects that are unexpected and cannot be measured. If Global IT Spending does not rebound as quickly as expected, Adobe may continue to see quarters of unexpectedly slow growth. This is most damaging for companies that rely on large enterprise spending. However, the technology firms that seem to be benefitting the most from the pandemic and lockdown orders are cloud-based software.</p>\n<p><b>V. Valuation</b></p>\n<p><b>1) Comparative Valuation</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb5f13cdb163707d91d814d480a77cb4\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"292\"><span>(Figure 4.1: Comparable Analysis. Source: Bloomberg)</span></p>\n<p>Starting with a quick comparative analysis, we see that Adobe is trading at a slight discount to its peers. In an industry that is highly speculative, Adobe provides an investment in a stock with less risk and solid returns.</p>\n<p>An interesting analysis I conducted was a comparison of R&amp;D expenditures to future projected revenue growth to get insight as to how efficient software firms are at utilizing their profits to focus on firm growth. In an industry where differentiation and innovation are key, I thought this concept would be interesting to observe. The graph below displays the top 25 application software firms, by market cap. Essentially, any firm above the line is currently using their capital efficiently towards greater growth, while those below the line are not using their capital efficiently. Comparing the findings of this graph with the risk vs. return of stocks above the line, we further see that Adobe is a solid long-term pick.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b2e34e56a06154b15bbe16a9936cf1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\"><span>(Figure 4.2: R&amp;D vs. Future Revenue Growth Forecast. Source: Bloomberg; Personal Pitch Deck)</span></p>\n<p><b>2) Intrinsic Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The first set of calculations was forecasting future revenue streams of the business segments. Based on my research and assumptions, I used a weighted moving average to calculate growth rates, then used a regression of historical market and industry growth expectations to adjust the top-line revenue estimates. The rest of the model was built upon a mix of more industry expectations, as well as assumptions, estimates, and long-term goals set forth by management.</p>\n<p>I calculated a discount rate of 6.87%, which was used to discount the projected cash flows until 2025. To calculate the present value of the cash flows of 2026-beyond, I used the perpetual growth rate method, and based on my concluding research, assumed a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%. This brought me to a 12-month PT of ~$590.</p>\n<p>In a bull case scenario where revenue growth exceeds 20% YoY from 2022-2025, or where the perpetual growth rate assumed in the model is changed to 4.0%, we see the price target soaring above $600.</p>\n<p>When initially developing my model and report, Adobe stock was ~$485. However, we've seen a run up of the price over the past few days, from about $515 to surpassing $550. It is typical to see a rally in tech stocks before their earnings, which deflates the potential return. This means that there may be a solid entry point immediately post-earnings, depending on if the price drops or not.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, this does not consider Adobe's share buyback plan that was authorized, which would increase the value of shares and earnings. I think that Q2 earnings should provide more clarity.</p>\n<p><b>VI. Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Adobe has seen major success in growth and scale, which will support its strategic initiatives. The firm has proven to be a leader in 2021 macroeconomic and software industry trends, which will provide tailwinds for growth of its subscription-based segments.</p>\n<p>With inflation fears, right now is the time to shift investments diversified across technology to more fundamentally stable large-cap firms, like Adobe, to combat uncertainty. I think there should be an optimal entry point immediately post-earnings, unless earnings drive the price higher after-hours. Regardless, as a growth prospect with proven cash flows and healthy margins, I see any entry in Adobe as a solid-long term pick that is less speculative of a play.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 14:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.\nThe firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140381227","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.\nThe firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond.\nAdobe’s scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.\nStrong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600.\n\nhapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI. Investment Thesis\nDespite rallying well over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) stock.\nAdobe's historical success with execution of a transition to a cloud-based subscription model will continue to drive strong revenue growth.\nThe firm is also well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond, however, many of these trends and growth opportunities are unrecognized.\nAdobe's scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.\nLastly, strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600 in a bull scenario.\nII. Company Overview\nData by YCharts\nAdobe operates worldwide, offering software and services used by professionals, marketers, students, and more for creating, managing, measuring, and engaging with compelling content and experiences. As of Q1 FY 2021, the firm generates their revenue from three main segments: Digital Media (~73% of revenues), Digital Experience (~24%), and Publishing & Advertising (~3%).\nThe digital media segment includes their most well-known product, Creative Cloud, as well as Document Cloud. Creative Cloud is a diverse toolkit built for creating, publishing, and promoting digital content. Some of the most well-known applications include Photoshop and Illustrator. Adobe Document Cloud is gaining momentum against pure-play firms like DocuSign and is becoming a fierce competitor, especially with regard to small and medium-sized businesses.\n(Figure 2.1: All Adobe Creative Cloud and Document Cloud tools. Source:Adobe Investor Relations)\nThe Digital Experience Cloud is designed to help users manage, measure, automate, and optimize customer experiences and customer engagement. Adobe has done a great job expanding into various industries through this segment, including retail, media, financial services, technology, education, and more. The segment has been slowly increasing in size and can be expected to provide long-term support to Adobe's strong revenue growth.\nThe third segment, formerly known as Print & Publishing, was renamed last quarter to \"Publishing & Advertising\", as Adobe shifted the revenues from their advertising portion of Digital Experience to this new segment. With the demand of print on the decline, this reclassification allows for a more accurate balance of product divisions. With data from only one quarter of this new classification, it's hard to evaluate the performance of advertising, but there should be more clarity over the next few quarters.\n(Figure 2.2: Some large organizations and industries using Experience Cloud. Source: Personal Pitch Deck;Adobe Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)\nIII. Growth Drivers1) Digital Business Transformation\nHistorically, Adobe has been one of the most successful firms in migrating a user base from a traditional one-time license-based model to a cloud-based subscription revenue model. A cloud-based subscription model is extremely crucial as it allows technology firms to see more stability in future revenue streams. As of last quarter, Adobe generates approximately 83% of revenues through a recurring stream. For analysts and investors, this gives confidence and a much clearer indication as to the quality and consistency of cash flows. It also allows cloud firms to strengthen margins and benefit from scale, which we already see with Adobe. Subscription revenues are derived from the Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, and the new Publishing & Advertising Segment (not accounted for below).\n(Figure 3.1: Subscription Revenue by Segment & Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model;Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)\nAnnualized recurring revenue, a more software industry-specific metric, sheds light on how much revenue the firm generates over the course of a year that is guaranteed to occur again. This value doesn't just tell us how much revenue is generated from subscriptions and contracts, but also roughly the net value of expansions and churn. As ARR growth continues to be positive, we see that a) more customers are paying for services each year, and b) customers are on average spending more with Adobe. Essentially, net expansions are outweighing churn, which could mean either a) or b) above, or a mix of both. Since the quantifiable values of net expansion and churn are not readily available in public filings, it is too difficult to explore this avenue further.\n(Figure 3.2: ARR and % Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model; Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)\nEven with a plateau of subscription and ARR growth, we are seeing >20% YoY revenue growth for a large-cap firm that has been a leader in the industry for well over a decade. The customer transition to the new revenue model is essentially complete and has consistently outperformed expectations, with stronger comparable margins across the board as Adobe continues to dominate in scale.\n2) Advertising, Analytics, & New Tech\nVarious profitable digital and marketing-related trends of 2021 and into the future include e-commerce, analytics, AI & automation, augmented reality, and virtual reality. We typically see large software firms position themselves to benefit from tailwinds through R&D to strengthen innovation, or M&A to expand market share and product diversification.\nAdobe has recently completed over a dozen strategic acquisitions and investments that revolve around these key areas. The firm is taking care to ensure their most recent acquisitions will be effectively integrated into their respective platforms to set up strong market positioning. At the end of last year, we heard from management that the team was most likely not planning any large acquisitions in 2021, mainly because 1) speculative software is trading at high multiples and is overvalued, and 2) so they can focus on working with what they currently have.\n(Figure 3.3: Acquisitions & Investments, 2018-2021. Source: Bloomberg)\nSpending about 17% of revenues on R&D as of last quarter, the firm has utilized their capital efficiently to foster innovation and a competitive edge. Adobe most recently has worked to expand the breadth of their Creative Cloud tools - especially ones designed for mobile devices - to increase the appeal of their products to different user groups in new or unique markets.\nEffective use of capital towards R&D and M&A initiatives led by strong margins and cash flows should allow the company to gain traction in new verticals and continue to accelerate revenue growth in the subscription segment.\n3) Market and Global Opportunity\nAs the firm shed light on its Total Addressable Market [TAM] for the next few years in its financial analyst meeting of 2020, Adobe has huge plans to capture diverse user groups to an expanding TAM in Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud by 2023 - their largest areas for growth. The projected TAM in these segments from 2021 to 2023 has grown 40.4%*, 180.0%*, and 19.4%*, respectively. We see Adobe has the largest potential in its Digital Media segment through Creative Cloud and Document Cloud, although the market for its Experience Cloud has still grown modestly. In the figures below, we take a look at some of these numbers, and some of the plans outlined by Adobe.\n(* - numbers calculated from financial analyst meeting slides from2018,2019, and2020, respectively)\n\n(Figures 3.4, 3.5, & 3.6: Total Addressable Market, various product lines. Source: Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)\nAdobe's product depth, market share, customer loyalty, and high brand recognition for their flagship creative software over the past two decades make a strong case as to why the firm can be expected to successfully execute its intermediate-term growth strategies. Adobe is positioned well to benefit from growth in the total addressable market for all three segments and specific products.\nWe have seen from earlier mentions of Adobe's expansion into key areas that they have already been successful in penetrating markets with web and mobile-based tools, and increased adoption of 3D development. This reinforces my view of Adobe's ability to continue to capture a larger share of the total addressable market for its Creative Cloud.\nThe firm's deep customer loyalty and brand recognition will allow the firm to continue to grab larger shares of the CRM market with their Experience Cloud platform as the company continues to expand further into unique industries like healthcare and education.\nIn this section, I'd also like to explore the importance of strong margins a bit further. According to Bloomberg data, Adobe's subscription revenue (which is generated from its cloud-based business) achieved a gross margin of 91% last quarter. If we look back to 2009, before Adobe began their transition to a cloud-based model, gross margin from subscription revenue was ~35%. For Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), another large-cap application software firm, gross margin last quarter from subscription was ~80%. Previously to their cloud model, in 2008, Salesforce's gross margin for the segment was ~87%.\nMy conclusion is that a company like Salesforce has struggled to execute a long-term cloud strategy that would allow them to truly benefit from scale. With the growth in gross margin for Adobe from 35% to 91% (a 160% increase) from 2009 to 2021, this means that cost of revenue for subscription and cloud-based services has been decreasing proportionally, which makes sense for a strategy that has been executed successfully. Essentially, this gives firms like Adobe the upper hand with the ability to reinvest more capital into the business to achieve its strategic initiatives, such as those outlined in their financial analyst meeting slides above.\nNext is global opportunity. As consumer confidence continues to increase, Global IT Spending is already on the rebound, benefitting Adobe nicely. Results for Q1 FY2021 gave insight toward how enterprises are increasing software spending again post-pandemic, with total revenue up about 26% over the previous quarter. This, along with Adobe's solid performance during the pandemic, prove how strong the company's fundamentals really are.\nFurthermore, Adobe currently generates ~58% of revenues from the Americas, which means that they already have proven success in other areas globally. If Adobe can increase exposure specifically in EMEA it can be lucrative as emerging markets are expected to outperform and benefit from increased foreign investment. There is more to be explored in this area of expansion.\nIV. Major Risks\nAlthough subscription growth is beginning to plateau at about 20% YoY, in the next few years, it may begin to decline. This means Adobe must work harder in gaining a competitive edge, most likely through M&A and R&D. If Adobe does not effectively integrate its acquisitions into its platforms, it can impact margins short-term and prove to be inefficient use of capital. With a strong cash flow and relatively small debt load, even in this scenario, I don't believe it would impact Adobe's ability to generate cash flows intermediate to long term.\nAccording to an analysis of Porter's Five Forces, the application software subsector has a high degree of competition and a medium threat of substitutes. Currently, Salesforce dominates the relationship management space. Adobe is gaining traction, but due to the long enterprise sales cycle nature of the industry, there may be a lag in a shift to an environment that is more favorable for Adobe's Experience Cloud growth. Therefore, stock price may not accurately reflect the success of this segment immediately.\nSoftware products are reliant on the same enterprise IT budget of a given firm. Adobe and other large-cap application software firms may have to develop a strategy to reduce costs and pricing short-term. However, with strong roots in the industry, a successful business model, and a long sales cycle, I don't see this having a huge impact on Adobe's market share.\nAlthough consumer confidence has continued to increase post-pandemic, there are still unprecedented effects that are unexpected and cannot be measured. If Global IT Spending does not rebound as quickly as expected, Adobe may continue to see quarters of unexpectedly slow growth. This is most damaging for companies that rely on large enterprise spending. However, the technology firms that seem to be benefitting the most from the pandemic and lockdown orders are cloud-based software.\nV. Valuation\n1) Comparative Valuation\n(Figure 4.1: Comparable Analysis. Source: Bloomberg)\nStarting with a quick comparative analysis, we see that Adobe is trading at a slight discount to its peers. In an industry that is highly speculative, Adobe provides an investment in a stock with less risk and solid returns.\nAn interesting analysis I conducted was a comparison of R&D expenditures to future projected revenue growth to get insight as to how efficient software firms are at utilizing their profits to focus on firm growth. In an industry where differentiation and innovation are key, I thought this concept would be interesting to observe. The graph below displays the top 25 application software firms, by market cap. Essentially, any firm above the line is currently using their capital efficiently towards greater growth, while those below the line are not using their capital efficiently. Comparing the findings of this graph with the risk vs. return of stocks above the line, we further see that Adobe is a solid long-term pick.\n(Figure 4.2: R&D vs. Future Revenue Growth Forecast. Source: Bloomberg; Personal Pitch Deck)\n2) Intrinsic Valuation\nThe first set of calculations was forecasting future revenue streams of the business segments. Based on my research and assumptions, I used a weighted moving average to calculate growth rates, then used a regression of historical market and industry growth expectations to adjust the top-line revenue estimates. The rest of the model was built upon a mix of more industry expectations, as well as assumptions, estimates, and long-term goals set forth by management.\nI calculated a discount rate of 6.87%, which was used to discount the projected cash flows until 2025. To calculate the present value of the cash flows of 2026-beyond, I used the perpetual growth rate method, and based on my concluding research, assumed a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%. This brought me to a 12-month PT of ~$590.\nIn a bull case scenario where revenue growth exceeds 20% YoY from 2022-2025, or where the perpetual growth rate assumed in the model is changed to 4.0%, we see the price target soaring above $600.\nWhen initially developing my model and report, Adobe stock was ~$485. However, we've seen a run up of the price over the past few days, from about $515 to surpassing $550. It is typical to see a rally in tech stocks before their earnings, which deflates the potential return. This means that there may be a solid entry point immediately post-earnings, depending on if the price drops or not.\nFurthermore, this does not consider Adobe's share buyback plan that was authorized, which would increase the value of shares and earnings. I think that Q2 earnings should provide more clarity.\nVI. Conclusion\nAdobe has seen major success in growth and scale, which will support its strategic initiatives. The firm has proven to be a leader in 2021 macroeconomic and software industry trends, which will provide tailwinds for growth of its subscription-based segments.\nWith inflation fears, right now is the time to shift investments diversified across technology to more fundamentally stable large-cap firms, like Adobe, to combat uncertainty. I think there should be an optimal entry point immediately post-earnings, unless earnings drive the price higher after-hours. Regardless, as a growth prospect with proven cash flows and healthy margins, I see any entry in Adobe as a solid-long term pick that is less speculative of a play.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187151599,"gmtCreate":1623747562811,"gmtModify":1704210269559,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187151599","repostId":"2143377637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187159483,"gmtCreate":1623747528142,"gmtModify":1704210267574,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187159483","repostId":"1140381227","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140381227","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623736805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140381227?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 14:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140381227","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Despite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.</li>\n <li>The firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond.</li>\n <li>Adobe’s scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.</li>\n <li>Strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4641d2a64b72a5def91db89c766c634\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1023\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>I. Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Despite rallying well over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) stock.</p>\n<p>Adobe's historical success with execution of a transition to a cloud-based subscription model will continue to drive strong revenue growth.</p>\n<p>The firm is also well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond, however, many of these trends and growth opportunities are unrecognized.</p>\n<p>Adobe's scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.</p>\n<p>Lastly, strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600 in a bull scenario.</p>\n<p><b>II. Company Overview</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f64603318c032d51062fefbac14e0a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Adobe operates worldwide, offering software and services used by professionals, marketers, students, and more for creating, managing, measuring, and engaging with compelling content and experiences. As of&nbsp;Q1 FY 2021, the firm generates their revenue from three main segments: Digital Media (~73% of revenues), Digital Experience (~24%), and Publishing &amp; Advertising (~3%).</p>\n<p>The digital media segment includes their most well-known product, Creative Cloud, as well as Document Cloud. Creative Cloud is a diverse toolkit built for creating, publishing, and promoting digital content. Some of the most well-known applications include Photoshop and Illustrator. Adobe Document Cloud is gaining momentum against pure-play firms like DocuSign and is becoming a fierce competitor, especially with regard to small and medium-sized businesses.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0cc4cdfcefc85d46031470ea14b0b96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Figure 2.1: All Adobe Creative Cloud and Document Cloud tools. Source:Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p>The Digital Experience Cloud is designed to help users manage, measure, automate, and optimize customer experiences and customer engagement. Adobe has done a great job expanding into various industries through this segment, including retail, media, financial services, technology, education, and more. The segment has been slowly increasing in size and can be expected to provide long-term support to Adobe's strong revenue growth.</p>\n<p>The third segment, formerly known as Print &amp; Publishing, was renamed last quarter to \"Publishing &amp; Advertising\", as Adobe shifted the revenues from their advertising portion of Digital Experience to this new segment. With the demand of print on the decline, this reclassification allows for a more accurate balance of product divisions. With data from only one quarter of this new classification, it's hard to evaluate the performance of advertising, but there should be more clarity over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87624e36a52106e31d0d80466051fbed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"><span>(Figure 2.2: Some large organizations and industries using Experience Cloud. Source: Personal Pitch Deck;Adobe Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p><b>III. Growth Drivers1) Digital Business Transformation</b></p>\n<p>Historically, Adobe has been one of the most successful firms in migrating a user base from a traditional one-time license-based model to a cloud-based subscription revenue model. A cloud-based subscription model is extremely crucial as it allows technology firms to see more stability in future revenue streams. As of last quarter, Adobe generates approximately 83% of revenues through a recurring stream. For analysts and investors, this gives confidence and a much clearer indication as to the quality and consistency of cash flows. It also allows cloud firms to strengthen margins and benefit from scale, which we already see with Adobe. Subscription revenues are derived from the Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, and the new Publishing &amp; Advertising Segment (not accounted for below).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae29c71332820c9ea3bc7feb3e34f3f4\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>(Figure 3.1: Subscription Revenue by Segment &amp; Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model;Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)</span></p>\n<p>Annualized recurring revenue, a more software industry-specific metric, sheds light on how much revenue the firm generates over the course of a year that is guaranteed to occur again. This value doesn't just tell us how much revenue is generated from subscriptions and contracts, but also roughly the net value of expansions and churn. As ARR growth continues to be positive, we see that a) more customers are paying for services each year, and b) customers are on average spending more with Adobe. Essentially, net expansions are outweighing churn, which could mean either a) or b) above, or a mix of both. Since the quantifiable values of net expansion and churn are not readily available in public filings, it is too difficult to explore this avenue further.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c83308896f43725bd3fa575223afd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"><span>(Figure 3.2: ARR and % Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model; Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)</span></p>\n<p>Even with a plateau of subscription and ARR growth, we are seeing &gt;20% YoY revenue growth for a large-cap firm that has been a leader in the industry for well over a decade. The customer transition to the new revenue model is essentially complete and has consistently outperformed expectations, with stronger comparable margins across the board as Adobe continues to dominate in scale.</p>\n<p><b>2) Advertising, Analytics, &amp; New Tech</b></p>\n<p>Various profitable digital and marketing-related trends of 2021 and into the future include e-commerce, analytics, AI &amp; automation, augmented reality, and virtual reality. We typically see large software firms position themselves to benefit from tailwinds through R&amp;D to strengthen innovation, or M&amp;A to expand market share and product diversification.</p>\n<p>Adobe has recently completed over a dozen strategic acquisitions and investments that revolve around these key areas. The firm is taking care to ensure their most recent acquisitions will be effectively integrated into their respective platforms to set up strong market positioning. At the end of last year, we heard from management that the team was most likely not planning any large acquisitions in 2021, mainly because 1) speculative software is trading at high multiples and is overvalued, and 2) so they can focus on working with what they currently have.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d4103feae0e6b47c7e25cb538ad6a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"><span>(Figure 3.3: Acquisitions &amp; Investments, 2018-2021. Source: Bloomberg)</span></p>\n<p>Spending about 17% of revenues on R&amp;D as of last quarter, the firm has utilized their capital efficiently to foster innovation and a competitive edge. Adobe most recently has worked to expand the breadth of their Creative Cloud tools - especially ones designed for mobile devices - to increase the appeal of their products to different user groups in new or unique markets.</p>\n<p>Effective use of capital towards R&amp;D and M&amp;A initiatives led by strong margins and cash flows should allow the company to gain traction in new verticals and continue to accelerate revenue growth in the subscription segment.</p>\n<p><b>3) Market and Global Opportunity</b></p>\n<p>As the firm shed light on its Total Addressable Market [TAM] for the next few years in its financial analyst meeting of 2020, Adobe has huge plans to capture diverse user groups to an expanding TAM in Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud by 2023 - their largest areas for growth. The projected TAM in these segments from 2021 to 2023 has grown 40.4%*, 180.0%*, and 19.4%*, respectively. We see Adobe has the largest potential in its Digital Media segment through Creative Cloud and Document Cloud, although the market for its Experience Cloud has still grown modestly. In the figures below, we take a look at some of these numbers, and some of the plans outlined by Adobe.</p>\n<p><i>(* - numbers calculated from financial analyst meeting slides from2018,2019, and2020, respectively)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c05a2d3b73284773f38278b989864a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cbbdf4bdb593b40ba4be71e3483ac91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>(Figures 3.4, 3.5, &amp; 3.6: Total Addressable Market, various product lines. Source: Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p>Adobe's product depth, market share, customer loyalty, and high brand recognition for their flagship creative software over the past two decades make a strong case as to why the firm can be expected to successfully execute its intermediate-term growth strategies. Adobe is positioned well to benefit from growth in the total addressable market for all three segments and specific products.</p>\n<p>We have seen from earlier mentions of Adobe's expansion into key areas that they have already been successful in penetrating markets with web and mobile-based tools, and increased adoption of 3D development. This reinforces my view of Adobe's ability to continue to capture a larger share of the total addressable market for its Creative Cloud.</p>\n<p>The firm's deep customer loyalty and brand recognition will allow the firm to continue to grab larger shares of the CRM market with their Experience Cloud platform as the company continues to expand further into unique industries like healthcare and education.</p>\n<p>In this section, I'd also like to explore the importance of strong margins a bit further. According to Bloomberg data, Adobe's subscription revenue (which is generated from its cloud-based business) achieved a gross margin of 91% last quarter. If we look back to 2009, before Adobe began their transition to a cloud-based model, gross margin from subscription revenue was ~35%. For Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), another large-cap application software firm, gross margin last quarter from subscription was ~80%. Previously to their cloud model, in 2008, Salesforce's gross margin for the segment was ~87%.</p>\n<p>My conclusion is that a company like Salesforce has struggled to execute a long-term cloud strategy that would allow them to truly benefit from scale. With the growth in gross margin for Adobe from 35% to 91% (a 160% increase) from 2009 to 2021, this means that cost of revenue for subscription and cloud-based services has been decreasing proportionally, which makes sense for a strategy that has been executed successfully. Essentially, this gives firms like Adobe the upper hand with the ability to reinvest more capital into the business to achieve its strategic initiatives, such as those outlined in their financial analyst meeting slides above.</p>\n<p>Next is global opportunity. As consumer confidence continues to increase, Global IT Spending is already on the rebound, benefitting Adobe nicely. Results for Q1 FY2021 gave insight toward how enterprises are increasing software spending again post-pandemic, with total revenue up about 26% over the previous quarter. This, along with Adobe's solid performance during the pandemic, prove how strong the company's fundamentals really are.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, Adobe currently generates ~58% of revenues from the Americas, which means that they already have proven success in other areas globally. If Adobe can increase exposure specifically in EMEA it can be lucrative as emerging markets are expected to outperform and benefit from increased foreign investment. There is more to be explored in this area of expansion.</p>\n<p><b>IV. Major Risks</b></p>\n<p>Although subscription growth is beginning to plateau at about 20% YoY, in the next few years, it may begin to decline. This means Adobe must work harder in gaining a competitive edge, most likely through M&amp;A and R&amp;D. If Adobe does not effectively integrate its acquisitions into its platforms, it can impact margins short-term and prove to be inefficient use of capital. With a strong cash flow and relatively small debt load, even in this scenario, I don't believe it would impact Adobe's ability to generate cash flows intermediate to long term.</p>\n<p>According to an analysis of Porter's Five Forces, the application software subsector has a high degree of competition and a medium threat of substitutes. Currently, Salesforce dominates the relationship management space. Adobe is gaining traction, but due to the long enterprise sales cycle nature of the industry, there may be a lag in a shift to an environment that is more favorable for Adobe's Experience Cloud growth. Therefore, stock price may not accurately reflect the success of this segment immediately.</p>\n<p>Software products are reliant on the same enterprise IT budget of a given firm. Adobe and other large-cap application software firms may have to develop a strategy to reduce costs and pricing short-term. However, with strong roots in the industry, a successful business model, and a long sales cycle, I don't see this having a huge impact on Adobe's market share.</p>\n<p>Although consumer confidence has continued to increase post-pandemic, there are still unprecedented effects that are unexpected and cannot be measured. If Global IT Spending does not rebound as quickly as expected, Adobe may continue to see quarters of unexpectedly slow growth. This is most damaging for companies that rely on large enterprise spending. However, the technology firms that seem to be benefitting the most from the pandemic and lockdown orders are cloud-based software.</p>\n<p><b>V. Valuation</b></p>\n<p><b>1) Comparative Valuation</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb5f13cdb163707d91d814d480a77cb4\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"292\"><span>(Figure 4.1: Comparable Analysis. Source: Bloomberg)</span></p>\n<p>Starting with a quick comparative analysis, we see that Adobe is trading at a slight discount to its peers. In an industry that is highly speculative, Adobe provides an investment in a stock with less risk and solid returns.</p>\n<p>An interesting analysis I conducted was a comparison of R&amp;D expenditures to future projected revenue growth to get insight as to how efficient software firms are at utilizing their profits to focus on firm growth. In an industry where differentiation and innovation are key, I thought this concept would be interesting to observe. The graph below displays the top 25 application software firms, by market cap. Essentially, any firm above the line is currently using their capital efficiently towards greater growth, while those below the line are not using their capital efficiently. Comparing the findings of this graph with the risk vs. return of stocks above the line, we further see that Adobe is a solid long-term pick.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b2e34e56a06154b15bbe16a9936cf1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\"><span>(Figure 4.2: R&amp;D vs. Future Revenue Growth Forecast. Source: Bloomberg; Personal Pitch Deck)</span></p>\n<p><b>2) Intrinsic Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The first set of calculations was forecasting future revenue streams of the business segments. Based on my research and assumptions, I used a weighted moving average to calculate growth rates, then used a regression of historical market and industry growth expectations to adjust the top-line revenue estimates. The rest of the model was built upon a mix of more industry expectations, as well as assumptions, estimates, and long-term goals set forth by management.</p>\n<p>I calculated a discount rate of 6.87%, which was used to discount the projected cash flows until 2025. To calculate the present value of the cash flows of 2026-beyond, I used the perpetual growth rate method, and based on my concluding research, assumed a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%. This brought me to a 12-month PT of ~$590.</p>\n<p>In a bull case scenario where revenue growth exceeds 20% YoY from 2022-2025, or where the perpetual growth rate assumed in the model is changed to 4.0%, we see the price target soaring above $600.</p>\n<p>When initially developing my model and report, Adobe stock was ~$485. However, we've seen a run up of the price over the past few days, from about $515 to surpassing $550. It is typical to see a rally in tech stocks before their earnings, which deflates the potential return. This means that there may be a solid entry point immediately post-earnings, depending on if the price drops or not.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, this does not consider Adobe's share buyback plan that was authorized, which would increase the value of shares and earnings. I think that Q2 earnings should provide more clarity.</p>\n<p><b>VI. Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Adobe has seen major success in growth and scale, which will support its strategic initiatives. The firm has proven to be a leader in 2021 macroeconomic and software industry trends, which will provide tailwinds for growth of its subscription-based segments.</p>\n<p>With inflation fears, right now is the time to shift investments diversified across technology to more fundamentally stable large-cap firms, like Adobe, to combat uncertainty. I think there should be an optimal entry point immediately post-earnings, unless earnings drive the price higher after-hours. Regardless, as a growth prospect with proven cash flows and healthy margins, I see any entry in Adobe as a solid-long term pick that is less speculative of a play.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 14:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.\nThe firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140381227","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.\nThe firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond.\nAdobe’s scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.\nStrong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600.\n\nhapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI. Investment Thesis\nDespite rallying well over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) stock.\nAdobe's historical success with execution of a transition to a cloud-based subscription model will continue to drive strong revenue growth.\nThe firm is also well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond, however, many of these trends and growth opportunities are unrecognized.\nAdobe's scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.\nLastly, strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600 in a bull scenario.\nII. Company Overview\nData by YCharts\nAdobe operates worldwide, offering software and services used by professionals, marketers, students, and more for creating, managing, measuring, and engaging with compelling content and experiences. As of Q1 FY 2021, the firm generates their revenue from three main segments: Digital Media (~73% of revenues), Digital Experience (~24%), and Publishing & Advertising (~3%).\nThe digital media segment includes their most well-known product, Creative Cloud, as well as Document Cloud. Creative Cloud is a diverse toolkit built for creating, publishing, and promoting digital content. Some of the most well-known applications include Photoshop and Illustrator. Adobe Document Cloud is gaining momentum against pure-play firms like DocuSign and is becoming a fierce competitor, especially with regard to small and medium-sized businesses.\n(Figure 2.1: All Adobe Creative Cloud and Document Cloud tools. Source:Adobe Investor Relations)\nThe Digital Experience Cloud is designed to help users manage, measure, automate, and optimize customer experiences and customer engagement. Adobe has done a great job expanding into various industries through this segment, including retail, media, financial services, technology, education, and more. The segment has been slowly increasing in size and can be expected to provide long-term support to Adobe's strong revenue growth.\nThe third segment, formerly known as Print & Publishing, was renamed last quarter to \"Publishing & Advertising\", as Adobe shifted the revenues from their advertising portion of Digital Experience to this new segment. With the demand of print on the decline, this reclassification allows for a more accurate balance of product divisions. With data from only one quarter of this new classification, it's hard to evaluate the performance of advertising, but there should be more clarity over the next few quarters.\n(Figure 2.2: Some large organizations and industries using Experience Cloud. Source: Personal Pitch Deck;Adobe Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)\nIII. Growth Drivers1) Digital Business Transformation\nHistorically, Adobe has been one of the most successful firms in migrating a user base from a traditional one-time license-based model to a cloud-based subscription revenue model. A cloud-based subscription model is extremely crucial as it allows technology firms to see more stability in future revenue streams. As of last quarter, Adobe generates approximately 83% of revenues through a recurring stream. For analysts and investors, this gives confidence and a much clearer indication as to the quality and consistency of cash flows. It also allows cloud firms to strengthen margins and benefit from scale, which we already see with Adobe. Subscription revenues are derived from the Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, and the new Publishing & Advertising Segment (not accounted for below).\n(Figure 3.1: Subscription Revenue by Segment & Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model;Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)\nAnnualized recurring revenue, a more software industry-specific metric, sheds light on how much revenue the firm generates over the course of a year that is guaranteed to occur again. This value doesn't just tell us how much revenue is generated from subscriptions and contracts, but also roughly the net value of expansions and churn. As ARR growth continues to be positive, we see that a) more customers are paying for services each year, and b) customers are on average spending more with Adobe. Essentially, net expansions are outweighing churn, which could mean either a) or b) above, or a mix of both. Since the quantifiable values of net expansion and churn are not readily available in public filings, it is too difficult to explore this avenue further.\n(Figure 3.2: ARR and % Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model; Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)\nEven with a plateau of subscription and ARR growth, we are seeing >20% YoY revenue growth for a large-cap firm that has been a leader in the industry for well over a decade. The customer transition to the new revenue model is essentially complete and has consistently outperformed expectations, with stronger comparable margins across the board as Adobe continues to dominate in scale.\n2) Advertising, Analytics, & New Tech\nVarious profitable digital and marketing-related trends of 2021 and into the future include e-commerce, analytics, AI & automation, augmented reality, and virtual reality. We typically see large software firms position themselves to benefit from tailwinds through R&D to strengthen innovation, or M&A to expand market share and product diversification.\nAdobe has recently completed over a dozen strategic acquisitions and investments that revolve around these key areas. The firm is taking care to ensure their most recent acquisitions will be effectively integrated into their respective platforms to set up strong market positioning. At the end of last year, we heard from management that the team was most likely not planning any large acquisitions in 2021, mainly because 1) speculative software is trading at high multiples and is overvalued, and 2) so they can focus on working with what they currently have.\n(Figure 3.3: Acquisitions & Investments, 2018-2021. Source: Bloomberg)\nSpending about 17% of revenues on R&D as of last quarter, the firm has utilized their capital efficiently to foster innovation and a competitive edge. Adobe most recently has worked to expand the breadth of their Creative Cloud tools - especially ones designed for mobile devices - to increase the appeal of their products to different user groups in new or unique markets.\nEffective use of capital towards R&D and M&A initiatives led by strong margins and cash flows should allow the company to gain traction in new verticals and continue to accelerate revenue growth in the subscription segment.\n3) Market and Global Opportunity\nAs the firm shed light on its Total Addressable Market [TAM] for the next few years in its financial analyst meeting of 2020, Adobe has huge plans to capture diverse user groups to an expanding TAM in Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud by 2023 - their largest areas for growth. The projected TAM in these segments from 2021 to 2023 has grown 40.4%*, 180.0%*, and 19.4%*, respectively. We see Adobe has the largest potential in its Digital Media segment through Creative Cloud and Document Cloud, although the market for its Experience Cloud has still grown modestly. In the figures below, we take a look at some of these numbers, and some of the plans outlined by Adobe.\n(* - numbers calculated from financial analyst meeting slides from2018,2019, and2020, respectively)\n\n(Figures 3.4, 3.5, & 3.6: Total Addressable Market, various product lines. Source: Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)\nAdobe's product depth, market share, customer loyalty, and high brand recognition for their flagship creative software over the past two decades make a strong case as to why the firm can be expected to successfully execute its intermediate-term growth strategies. Adobe is positioned well to benefit from growth in the total addressable market for all three segments and specific products.\nWe have seen from earlier mentions of Adobe's expansion into key areas that they have already been successful in penetrating markets with web and mobile-based tools, and increased adoption of 3D development. This reinforces my view of Adobe's ability to continue to capture a larger share of the total addressable market for its Creative Cloud.\nThe firm's deep customer loyalty and brand recognition will allow the firm to continue to grab larger shares of the CRM market with their Experience Cloud platform as the company continues to expand further into unique industries like healthcare and education.\nIn this section, I'd also like to explore the importance of strong margins a bit further. According to Bloomberg data, Adobe's subscription revenue (which is generated from its cloud-based business) achieved a gross margin of 91% last quarter. If we look back to 2009, before Adobe began their transition to a cloud-based model, gross margin from subscription revenue was ~35%. For Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), another large-cap application software firm, gross margin last quarter from subscription was ~80%. Previously to their cloud model, in 2008, Salesforce's gross margin for the segment was ~87%.\nMy conclusion is that a company like Salesforce has struggled to execute a long-term cloud strategy that would allow them to truly benefit from scale. With the growth in gross margin for Adobe from 35% to 91% (a 160% increase) from 2009 to 2021, this means that cost of revenue for subscription and cloud-based services has been decreasing proportionally, which makes sense for a strategy that has been executed successfully. Essentially, this gives firms like Adobe the upper hand with the ability to reinvest more capital into the business to achieve its strategic initiatives, such as those outlined in their financial analyst meeting slides above.\nNext is global opportunity. As consumer confidence continues to increase, Global IT Spending is already on the rebound, benefitting Adobe nicely. Results for Q1 FY2021 gave insight toward how enterprises are increasing software spending again post-pandemic, with total revenue up about 26% over the previous quarter. This, along with Adobe's solid performance during the pandemic, prove how strong the company's fundamentals really are.\nFurthermore, Adobe currently generates ~58% of revenues from the Americas, which means that they already have proven success in other areas globally. If Adobe can increase exposure specifically in EMEA it can be lucrative as emerging markets are expected to outperform and benefit from increased foreign investment. There is more to be explored in this area of expansion.\nIV. Major Risks\nAlthough subscription growth is beginning to plateau at about 20% YoY, in the next few years, it may begin to decline. This means Adobe must work harder in gaining a competitive edge, most likely through M&A and R&D. If Adobe does not effectively integrate its acquisitions into its platforms, it can impact margins short-term and prove to be inefficient use of capital. With a strong cash flow and relatively small debt load, even in this scenario, I don't believe it would impact Adobe's ability to generate cash flows intermediate to long term.\nAccording to an analysis of Porter's Five Forces, the application software subsector has a high degree of competition and a medium threat of substitutes. Currently, Salesforce dominates the relationship management space. Adobe is gaining traction, but due to the long enterprise sales cycle nature of the industry, there may be a lag in a shift to an environment that is more favorable for Adobe's Experience Cloud growth. Therefore, stock price may not accurately reflect the success of this segment immediately.\nSoftware products are reliant on the same enterprise IT budget of a given firm. Adobe and other large-cap application software firms may have to develop a strategy to reduce costs and pricing short-term. However, with strong roots in the industry, a successful business model, and a long sales cycle, I don't see this having a huge impact on Adobe's market share.\nAlthough consumer confidence has continued to increase post-pandemic, there are still unprecedented effects that are unexpected and cannot be measured. If Global IT Spending does not rebound as quickly as expected, Adobe may continue to see quarters of unexpectedly slow growth. This is most damaging for companies that rely on large enterprise spending. However, the technology firms that seem to be benefitting the most from the pandemic and lockdown orders are cloud-based software.\nV. Valuation\n1) Comparative Valuation\n(Figure 4.1: Comparable Analysis. Source: Bloomberg)\nStarting with a quick comparative analysis, we see that Adobe is trading at a slight discount to its peers. In an industry that is highly speculative, Adobe provides an investment in a stock with less risk and solid returns.\nAn interesting analysis I conducted was a comparison of R&D expenditures to future projected revenue growth to get insight as to how efficient software firms are at utilizing their profits to focus on firm growth. In an industry where differentiation and innovation are key, I thought this concept would be interesting to observe. The graph below displays the top 25 application software firms, by market cap. Essentially, any firm above the line is currently using their capital efficiently towards greater growth, while those below the line are not using their capital efficiently. Comparing the findings of this graph with the risk vs. return of stocks above the line, we further see that Adobe is a solid long-term pick.\n(Figure 4.2: R&D vs. Future Revenue Growth Forecast. Source: Bloomberg; Personal Pitch Deck)\n2) Intrinsic Valuation\nThe first set of calculations was forecasting future revenue streams of the business segments. Based on my research and assumptions, I used a weighted moving average to calculate growth rates, then used a regression of historical market and industry growth expectations to adjust the top-line revenue estimates. The rest of the model was built upon a mix of more industry expectations, as well as assumptions, estimates, and long-term goals set forth by management.\nI calculated a discount rate of 6.87%, which was used to discount the projected cash flows until 2025. To calculate the present value of the cash flows of 2026-beyond, I used the perpetual growth rate method, and based on my concluding research, assumed a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%. This brought me to a 12-month PT of ~$590.\nIn a bull case scenario where revenue growth exceeds 20% YoY from 2022-2025, or where the perpetual growth rate assumed in the model is changed to 4.0%, we see the price target soaring above $600.\nWhen initially developing my model and report, Adobe stock was ~$485. However, we've seen a run up of the price over the past few days, from about $515 to surpassing $550. It is typical to see a rally in tech stocks before their earnings, which deflates the potential return. This means that there may be a solid entry point immediately post-earnings, depending on if the price drops or not.\nFurthermore, this does not consider Adobe's share buyback plan that was authorized, which would increase the value of shares and earnings. I think that Q2 earnings should provide more clarity.\nVI. Conclusion\nAdobe has seen major success in growth and scale, which will support its strategic initiatives. The firm has proven to be a leader in 2021 macroeconomic and software industry trends, which will provide tailwinds for growth of its subscription-based segments.\nWith inflation fears, right now is the time to shift investments diversified across technology to more fundamentally stable large-cap firms, like Adobe, to combat uncertainty. I think there should be an optimal entry point immediately post-earnings, unless earnings drive the price higher after-hours. Regardless, as a growth prospect with proven cash flows and healthy margins, I see any entry in Adobe as a solid-long term pick that is less speculative of a play.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":168915922,"gmtCreate":1623946593366,"gmtModify":1703824416224,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168915922","repostId":"1178576120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178576120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623933604,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178576120?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jobless claims show surprise increase to highest level in a month","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178576120","media":"cnbc","summary":"Initial jobless unexpectedly rose last week despite an ongoing recovery in the U.S. employment marke","content":"<div>\n<p>Initial jobless unexpectedly rose last week despite an ongoing recovery in the U.S. employment market, the Labor Department reported Thursday.\nFirst-time filings for unemployment insurance for the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobless claims show surprise increase to highest level in a month</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobless claims show surprise increase to highest level in a month\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 20:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Initial jobless unexpectedly rose last week despite an ongoing recovery in the U.S. employment market, the Labor Department reported Thursday.\nFirst-time filings for unemployment insurance for the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1178576120","content_text":"Initial jobless unexpectedly rose last week despite an ongoing recovery in the U.S. employment market, the Labor Department reported Thursday.\nFirst-time filings for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 12 totaled 412,000, an improvement from the previous week's 375,000. That was the highest number since May 15.\nEconomists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting 360,000.\nThe surprise increase in claims comes following a series of incremental steps toward normalcy in the payrolls picture. A year ago at this time, the nation was seeing close to 1.5 million new claims a week amid continued government-imposed business shutdowns aimed at containing the Covid-19 pandemic.\nAs vaccinations have progressed and cases, hospitalizations and deaths have fallen dramatically, employment had been continuing to improve.\nContinuing claims, which run a week behind the headline number, were little changed at 3.52 million. A year ago, the number was close to 18 million.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168912273,"gmtCreate":1623946582292,"gmtModify":1703824415563,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168912273","repostId":"2144493207","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160886669,"gmtCreate":1623780113251,"gmtModify":1703819307879,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160886669","repostId":"1185254731","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185254731","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623764438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185254731?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ContextLogic gained as much as 10% a few minutes ago","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185254731","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 15) ContextLogic gained as much as 10% a few minutes ago.  ContextLogic gained nearly 6% for n","content":"<p>(June&nbsp;15)&nbsp;ContextLogic gained as much as 10%&nbsp;a few minutes ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;ContextLogic gained&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;6%&nbsp;for&nbsp;now.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f3eeb6c29b019970adceac690d15c3\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>ContextLogic&nbsp;signed a two-year partnership with an ecommerce platform,PrestaShop&nbsp;yesterday.</p>\n<p>More than 300,000 merchants and brands on the PrestaShop platform will be able to easily sell to millions of consumers on the Wish marketplace.</p>\n<p>Alan Small, Senior Business Development Manager for Wish in Europe said: “Wish serves millions of consumers around the world by providing high-quality products at affordable prices and a personalized, entertaining shopping experience. Partnering with PrestaShop will enable us to offer our consumers even more quality merchants and brands and to provide Prestashop merchants with a global platform to transact on.”</p>\n<p>Last week,the company's shares surged on attracting attention on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ContextLogic gained as much as 10% a few minutes ago</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nContextLogic gained as much as 10% a few minutes ago\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 21:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June&nbsp;15)&nbsp;ContextLogic gained as much as 10%&nbsp;a few minutes ago.&nbsp;&nbsp;ContextLogic gained&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;6%&nbsp;for&nbsp;now.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f3eeb6c29b019970adceac690d15c3\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>ContextLogic&nbsp;signed a two-year partnership with an ecommerce platform,PrestaShop&nbsp;yesterday.</p>\n<p>More than 300,000 merchants and brands on the PrestaShop platform will be able to easily sell to millions of consumers on the Wish marketplace.</p>\n<p>Alan Small, Senior Business Development Manager for Wish in Europe said: “Wish serves millions of consumers around the world by providing high-quality products at affordable prices and a personalized, entertaining shopping experience. Partnering with PrestaShop will enable us to offer our consumers even more quality merchants and brands and to provide Prestashop merchants with a global platform to transact on.”</p>\n<p>Last week,the company's shares surged on attracting attention on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185254731","content_text":"(June 15) ContextLogic gained as much as 10% a few minutes ago.  ContextLogic gained nearly 6% for now.\n\nContextLogic signed a two-year partnership with an ecommerce platform,PrestaShop yesterday.\nMore than 300,000 merchants and brands on the PrestaShop platform will be able to easily sell to millions of consumers on the Wish marketplace.\nAlan Small, Senior Business Development Manager for Wish in Europe said: “Wish serves millions of consumers around the world by providing high-quality products at affordable prices and a personalized, entertaining shopping experience. Partnering with PrestaShop will enable us to offer our consumers even more quality merchants and brands and to provide Prestashop merchants with a global platform to transact on.”\nLast week,the company's shares surged on attracting attention on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160886833,"gmtCreate":1623780102422,"gmtModify":1703819311779,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160886833","repostId":"1193362930","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193362930","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623766416,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193362930?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Drop From Records; Oil Highest Since 2018: Markets Wrap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193362930","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Dollars gains versus most major peers; bond yields are steady.\nMarket on high alert to hints on tape","content":"<ul>\n <li>Dollars gains versus most major peers; bond yields are steady.</li>\n <li>Market on high alert to hints on taper timetable from Fed.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>U.S. stocks declined from all-time highs as data suggested consumers are starting to shift more of their spending to services ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting. Crude oil traded at the highest level since 2018.</p>\n<p>Real estate, materials and health care sectors pushed the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index lower, while energy shares were in the green. The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed after Commerce Department figures showed retail sales declined in May.</p>\n<p>“There’s a lot of moving pieces with the deluge of data out this morning,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial. “Keep in mind there are unique circumstances related to our economic comeback that are putting pressure on these numbers.”</p>\n<p>The prevailing mood was calm the day before the Fed’s next policy decision -- and possible hints about when the central bank will slow the pace of emergency asset purchases. The statement is set to include updated forecasts, and expectations are that officials would broadcast any taper plans well in advance.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7993923f657da9c15cc512ae46328697\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>“We think that market could remain relatively complacent in a low conviction environment ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow,” according to Xavier Chapard, global macro strategist at Credit Agricole SA. “We continue to think that starting tomorrow the Fed could be slightly less ultra-dovish than it has been. While it will try not to trigger a significant market reaction, the question is whether it will succeed.”</p>\n<p>Economists expect the so-called dot plot to point to aninterest-rate increasein 2023, while the bank is unlikely to signal a scaling back of bond purchases until later this year.</p>\n<p>Elsewhere, European equities were led higher by chemical firms, while Asian stocks were mixed. West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $71 a barrel as investors weighed the outlook for rising demand against extended anti-virus curbs in some economies.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin continued to gyrate amid a barrage of comments, brieflyclimbingabove $41,000 only to pull back. The digital currency got a boost after veteran hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones re-endorsed the coin in a television interview.</p>\n<p>For more market commentary, follow the MLIV blog.</p>\n<p>Here are some key events to watch this week:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Federal Open Market Committee rate decision comes on Wednesday, with a news conference from Jerome Powell after</li>\n <li>U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin meet Wednesday in Geneva</li>\n <li>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies before a House panel Thursday on the federal budget</li>\n <li>Rate decisions come from Switzerland and Norway on Thursday</li>\n <li>The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision is on Friday</li>\n</ul>\n<p>These are some of the main moves in markets:</p>\n<p>Stocks</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.2%, more than any closing loss since June 3 as of 10:12 a.m. New York time</li>\n <li>The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%, more than any closing loss since June 3</li>\n <li>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%, more than any closing loss since June 9</li>\n <li>The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% to a record high</li>\n <li>The MSCI World index fell 0.1%, more than any closing loss since June 9</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Currencies</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%, climbing for the third straight day, the longest winning streak since March 25</li>\n <li>The euro was little changed at $1.2127</li>\n <li>The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.4080</li>\n <li>The Japanese yen was little changed at 110.13 per dollar</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Bonds</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one&nbsp;</li>\n <li>basis point to 1.50%</li>\n <li>Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to -0.23%</li>\n <li>Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 0.75%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Commodities</p>\n<ul>\n <li>West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $71.78 a barrel</li>\n <li>Gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,863.40 an ounce</li>\n</ul>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Drop From Records; Oil Highest Since 2018: Markets Wrap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Drop From Records; Oil Highest Since 2018: Markets Wrap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 22:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Dollars gains versus most major peers; bond yields are steady.\nMarket on high alert to hints on taper timetable from Fed.\n\nU.S. stocks declined from all-time highs as data suggested consumers are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193362930","content_text":"Dollars gains versus most major peers; bond yields are steady.\nMarket on high alert to hints on taper timetable from Fed.\n\nU.S. stocks declined from all-time highs as data suggested consumers are starting to shift more of their spending to services ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting. Crude oil traded at the highest level since 2018.\nReal estate, materials and health care sectors pushed the benchmark S&P 500 index lower, while energy shares were in the green. The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed after Commerce Department figures showed retail sales declined in May.\n“There’s a lot of moving pieces with the deluge of data out this morning,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial. “Keep in mind there are unique circumstances related to our economic comeback that are putting pressure on these numbers.”\nThe prevailing mood was calm the day before the Fed’s next policy decision -- and possible hints about when the central bank will slow the pace of emergency asset purchases. The statement is set to include updated forecasts, and expectations are that officials would broadcast any taper plans well in advance.\n\n“We think that market could remain relatively complacent in a low conviction environment ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow,” according to Xavier Chapard, global macro strategist at Credit Agricole SA. “We continue to think that starting tomorrow the Fed could be slightly less ultra-dovish than it has been. While it will try not to trigger a significant market reaction, the question is whether it will succeed.”\nEconomists expect the so-called dot plot to point to aninterest-rate increasein 2023, while the bank is unlikely to signal a scaling back of bond purchases until later this year.\nElsewhere, European equities were led higher by chemical firms, while Asian stocks were mixed. West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $71 a barrel as investors weighed the outlook for rising demand against extended anti-virus curbs in some economies.\nBitcoin continued to gyrate amid a barrage of comments, brieflyclimbingabove $41,000 only to pull back. The digital currency got a boost after veteran hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones re-endorsed the coin in a television interview.\nFor more market commentary, follow the MLIV blog.\nHere are some key events to watch this week:\n\nThe Federal Open Market Committee rate decision comes on Wednesday, with a news conference from Jerome Powell after\nU.S. President Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin meet Wednesday in Geneva\nU.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies before a House panel Thursday on the federal budget\nRate decisions come from Switzerland and Norway on Thursday\nThe Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision is on Friday\n\nThese are some of the main moves in markets:\nStocks\n\nThe S&P 500 fell 0.2%, more than any closing loss since June 3 as of 10:12 a.m. New York time\nThe Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%, more than any closing loss since June 3\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%, more than any closing loss since June 9\nThe Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% to a record high\nThe MSCI World index fell 0.1%, more than any closing loss since June 9\n\nCurrencies\n\nThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%, climbing for the third straight day, the longest winning streak since March 25\nThe euro was little changed at $1.2127\nThe British pound fell 0.2% to $1.4080\nThe Japanese yen was little changed at 110.13 per dollar\n\nBonds\n\nThe yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one \nbasis point to 1.50%\nGermany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to -0.23%\nBritain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 0.75%\n\nCommodities\n\nWest Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $71.78 a barrel\nGold futures fell 0.1% to $1,863.40 an ounce","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160888949,"gmtCreate":1623779984981,"gmtModify":1703819306256,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160888949","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187140285,"gmtCreate":1623747720447,"gmtModify":1704210280100,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187140285","repostId":"1167720481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167720481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623723356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167720481?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167720481","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.So what does AAPL do with all of the cash","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>\n <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>\n <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>\n <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p>\n<p>The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p><b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p>\n<p>So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p>\n<p>So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p><b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p>\n<p>GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p>\n<p>When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p>\n<p><b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p>\n<p>AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p>\n<p>So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p>\n<p>I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p>\n<p>Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p>Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p>By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167720481","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.\nApple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.\nEventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIn 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.\nThe market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation & gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nApple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is\nSo what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&D]. In 2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.\nSo what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's board authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost $23 billion in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.\n(Source: Apple)\nMeme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market\nGameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME & AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nWhat's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.\nWhen investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN) has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.\n(Source:multpl.com)\nLaying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable\nAAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.\nSo the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.\nI believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In 2018 Services generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.\nServices are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nWearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nBy the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.\n(Source: Apple)\nConclusion\nThe meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187156564,"gmtCreate":1623747609458,"gmtModify":1704210275737,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187156564","repostId":"1186361842","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187156381,"gmtCreate":1623747599843,"gmtModify":1704210271842,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187156381","repostId":"1140381227","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140381227","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623736805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140381227?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 14:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140381227","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Despite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.</li>\n <li>The firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond.</li>\n <li>Adobe’s scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.</li>\n <li>Strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4641d2a64b72a5def91db89c766c634\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1023\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>I. Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Despite rallying well over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) stock.</p>\n<p>Adobe's historical success with execution of a transition to a cloud-based subscription model will continue to drive strong revenue growth.</p>\n<p>The firm is also well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond, however, many of these trends and growth opportunities are unrecognized.</p>\n<p>Adobe's scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.</p>\n<p>Lastly, strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600 in a bull scenario.</p>\n<p><b>II. Company Overview</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f64603318c032d51062fefbac14e0a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Adobe operates worldwide, offering software and services used by professionals, marketers, students, and more for creating, managing, measuring, and engaging with compelling content and experiences. As of&nbsp;Q1 FY 2021, the firm generates their revenue from three main segments: Digital Media (~73% of revenues), Digital Experience (~24%), and Publishing &amp; Advertising (~3%).</p>\n<p>The digital media segment includes their most well-known product, Creative Cloud, as well as Document Cloud. Creative Cloud is a diverse toolkit built for creating, publishing, and promoting digital content. Some of the most well-known applications include Photoshop and Illustrator. Adobe Document Cloud is gaining momentum against pure-play firms like DocuSign and is becoming a fierce competitor, especially with regard to small and medium-sized businesses.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0cc4cdfcefc85d46031470ea14b0b96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Figure 2.1: All Adobe Creative Cloud and Document Cloud tools. Source:Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p>The Digital Experience Cloud is designed to help users manage, measure, automate, and optimize customer experiences and customer engagement. Adobe has done a great job expanding into various industries through this segment, including retail, media, financial services, technology, education, and more. The segment has been slowly increasing in size and can be expected to provide long-term support to Adobe's strong revenue growth.</p>\n<p>The third segment, formerly known as Print &amp; Publishing, was renamed last quarter to \"Publishing &amp; Advertising\", as Adobe shifted the revenues from their advertising portion of Digital Experience to this new segment. With the demand of print on the decline, this reclassification allows for a more accurate balance of product divisions. With data from only one quarter of this new classification, it's hard to evaluate the performance of advertising, but there should be more clarity over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87624e36a52106e31d0d80466051fbed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"><span>(Figure 2.2: Some large organizations and industries using Experience Cloud. Source: Personal Pitch Deck;Adobe Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p><b>III. Growth Drivers1) Digital Business Transformation</b></p>\n<p>Historically, Adobe has been one of the most successful firms in migrating a user base from a traditional one-time license-based model to a cloud-based subscription revenue model. A cloud-based subscription model is extremely crucial as it allows technology firms to see more stability in future revenue streams. As of last quarter, Adobe generates approximately 83% of revenues through a recurring stream. For analysts and investors, this gives confidence and a much clearer indication as to the quality and consistency of cash flows. It also allows cloud firms to strengthen margins and benefit from scale, which we already see with Adobe. Subscription revenues are derived from the Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, and the new Publishing &amp; Advertising Segment (not accounted for below).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae29c71332820c9ea3bc7feb3e34f3f4\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>(Figure 3.1: Subscription Revenue by Segment &amp; Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model;Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)</span></p>\n<p>Annualized recurring revenue, a more software industry-specific metric, sheds light on how much revenue the firm generates over the course of a year that is guaranteed to occur again. This value doesn't just tell us how much revenue is generated from subscriptions and contracts, but also roughly the net value of expansions and churn. As ARR growth continues to be positive, we see that a) more customers are paying for services each year, and b) customers are on average spending more with Adobe. Essentially, net expansions are outweighing churn, which could mean either a) or b) above, or a mix of both. Since the quantifiable values of net expansion and churn are not readily available in public filings, it is too difficult to explore this avenue further.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c83308896f43725bd3fa575223afd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"><span>(Figure 3.2: ARR and % Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model; Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)</span></p>\n<p>Even with a plateau of subscription and ARR growth, we are seeing &gt;20% YoY revenue growth for a large-cap firm that has been a leader in the industry for well over a decade. The customer transition to the new revenue model is essentially complete and has consistently outperformed expectations, with stronger comparable margins across the board as Adobe continues to dominate in scale.</p>\n<p><b>2) Advertising, Analytics, &amp; New Tech</b></p>\n<p>Various profitable digital and marketing-related trends of 2021 and into the future include e-commerce, analytics, AI &amp; automation, augmented reality, and virtual reality. We typically see large software firms position themselves to benefit from tailwinds through R&amp;D to strengthen innovation, or M&amp;A to expand market share and product diversification.</p>\n<p>Adobe has recently completed over a dozen strategic acquisitions and investments that revolve around these key areas. The firm is taking care to ensure their most recent acquisitions will be effectively integrated into their respective platforms to set up strong market positioning. At the end of last year, we heard from management that the team was most likely not planning any large acquisitions in 2021, mainly because 1) speculative software is trading at high multiples and is overvalued, and 2) so they can focus on working with what they currently have.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d4103feae0e6b47c7e25cb538ad6a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"><span>(Figure 3.3: Acquisitions &amp; Investments, 2018-2021. Source: Bloomberg)</span></p>\n<p>Spending about 17% of revenues on R&amp;D as of last quarter, the firm has utilized their capital efficiently to foster innovation and a competitive edge. Adobe most recently has worked to expand the breadth of their Creative Cloud tools - especially ones designed for mobile devices - to increase the appeal of their products to different user groups in new or unique markets.</p>\n<p>Effective use of capital towards R&amp;D and M&amp;A initiatives led by strong margins and cash flows should allow the company to gain traction in new verticals and continue to accelerate revenue growth in the subscription segment.</p>\n<p><b>3) Market and Global Opportunity</b></p>\n<p>As the firm shed light on its Total Addressable Market [TAM] for the next few years in its financial analyst meeting of 2020, Adobe has huge plans to capture diverse user groups to an expanding TAM in Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud by 2023 - their largest areas for growth. The projected TAM in these segments from 2021 to 2023 has grown 40.4%*, 180.0%*, and 19.4%*, respectively. We see Adobe has the largest potential in its Digital Media segment through Creative Cloud and Document Cloud, although the market for its Experience Cloud has still grown modestly. In the figures below, we take a look at some of these numbers, and some of the plans outlined by Adobe.</p>\n<p><i>(* - numbers calculated from financial analyst meeting slides from2018,2019, and2020, respectively)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c05a2d3b73284773f38278b989864a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cbbdf4bdb593b40ba4be71e3483ac91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>(Figures 3.4, 3.5, &amp; 3.6: Total Addressable Market, various product lines. Source: Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p>Adobe's product depth, market share, customer loyalty, and high brand recognition for their flagship creative software over the past two decades make a strong case as to why the firm can be expected to successfully execute its intermediate-term growth strategies. Adobe is positioned well to benefit from growth in the total addressable market for all three segments and specific products.</p>\n<p>We have seen from earlier mentions of Adobe's expansion into key areas that they have already been successful in penetrating markets with web and mobile-based tools, and increased adoption of 3D development. This reinforces my view of Adobe's ability to continue to capture a larger share of the total addressable market for its Creative Cloud.</p>\n<p>The firm's deep customer loyalty and brand recognition will allow the firm to continue to grab larger shares of the CRM market with their Experience Cloud platform as the company continues to expand further into unique industries like healthcare and education.</p>\n<p>In this section, I'd also like to explore the importance of strong margins a bit further. According to Bloomberg data, Adobe's subscription revenue (which is generated from its cloud-based business) achieved a gross margin of 91% last quarter. If we look back to 2009, before Adobe began their transition to a cloud-based model, gross margin from subscription revenue was ~35%. For Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), another large-cap application software firm, gross margin last quarter from subscription was ~80%. Previously to their cloud model, in 2008, Salesforce's gross margin for the segment was ~87%.</p>\n<p>My conclusion is that a company like Salesforce has struggled to execute a long-term cloud strategy that would allow them to truly benefit from scale. With the growth in gross margin for Adobe from 35% to 91% (a 160% increase) from 2009 to 2021, this means that cost of revenue for subscription and cloud-based services has been decreasing proportionally, which makes sense for a strategy that has been executed successfully. Essentially, this gives firms like Adobe the upper hand with the ability to reinvest more capital into the business to achieve its strategic initiatives, such as those outlined in their financial analyst meeting slides above.</p>\n<p>Next is global opportunity. As consumer confidence continues to increase, Global IT Spending is already on the rebound, benefitting Adobe nicely. Results for Q1 FY2021 gave insight toward how enterprises are increasing software spending again post-pandemic, with total revenue up about 26% over the previous quarter. This, along with Adobe's solid performance during the pandemic, prove how strong the company's fundamentals really are.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, Adobe currently generates ~58% of revenues from the Americas, which means that they already have proven success in other areas globally. If Adobe can increase exposure specifically in EMEA it can be lucrative as emerging markets are expected to outperform and benefit from increased foreign investment. There is more to be explored in this area of expansion.</p>\n<p><b>IV. Major Risks</b></p>\n<p>Although subscription growth is beginning to plateau at about 20% YoY, in the next few years, it may begin to decline. This means Adobe must work harder in gaining a competitive edge, most likely through M&amp;A and R&amp;D. If Adobe does not effectively integrate its acquisitions into its platforms, it can impact margins short-term and prove to be inefficient use of capital. With a strong cash flow and relatively small debt load, even in this scenario, I don't believe it would impact Adobe's ability to generate cash flows intermediate to long term.</p>\n<p>According to an analysis of Porter's Five Forces, the application software subsector has a high degree of competition and a medium threat of substitutes. Currently, Salesforce dominates the relationship management space. Adobe is gaining traction, but due to the long enterprise sales cycle nature of the industry, there may be a lag in a shift to an environment that is more favorable for Adobe's Experience Cloud growth. Therefore, stock price may not accurately reflect the success of this segment immediately.</p>\n<p>Software products are reliant on the same enterprise IT budget of a given firm. Adobe and other large-cap application software firms may have to develop a strategy to reduce costs and pricing short-term. However, with strong roots in the industry, a successful business model, and a long sales cycle, I don't see this having a huge impact on Adobe's market share.</p>\n<p>Although consumer confidence has continued to increase post-pandemic, there are still unprecedented effects that are unexpected and cannot be measured. If Global IT Spending does not rebound as quickly as expected, Adobe may continue to see quarters of unexpectedly slow growth. This is most damaging for companies that rely on large enterprise spending. However, the technology firms that seem to be benefitting the most from the pandemic and lockdown orders are cloud-based software.</p>\n<p><b>V. Valuation</b></p>\n<p><b>1) Comparative Valuation</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb5f13cdb163707d91d814d480a77cb4\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"292\"><span>(Figure 4.1: Comparable Analysis. Source: Bloomberg)</span></p>\n<p>Starting with a quick comparative analysis, we see that Adobe is trading at a slight discount to its peers. In an industry that is highly speculative, Adobe provides an investment in a stock with less risk and solid returns.</p>\n<p>An interesting analysis I conducted was a comparison of R&amp;D expenditures to future projected revenue growth to get insight as to how efficient software firms are at utilizing their profits to focus on firm growth. In an industry where differentiation and innovation are key, I thought this concept would be interesting to observe. The graph below displays the top 25 application software firms, by market cap. Essentially, any firm above the line is currently using their capital efficiently towards greater growth, while those below the line are not using their capital efficiently. Comparing the findings of this graph with the risk vs. return of stocks above the line, we further see that Adobe is a solid long-term pick.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b2e34e56a06154b15bbe16a9936cf1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\"><span>(Figure 4.2: R&amp;D vs. Future Revenue Growth Forecast. Source: Bloomberg; Personal Pitch Deck)</span></p>\n<p><b>2) Intrinsic Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The first set of calculations was forecasting future revenue streams of the business segments. Based on my research and assumptions, I used a weighted moving average to calculate growth rates, then used a regression of historical market and industry growth expectations to adjust the top-line revenue estimates. The rest of the model was built upon a mix of more industry expectations, as well as assumptions, estimates, and long-term goals set forth by management.</p>\n<p>I calculated a discount rate of 6.87%, which was used to discount the projected cash flows until 2025. To calculate the present value of the cash flows of 2026-beyond, I used the perpetual growth rate method, and based on my concluding research, assumed a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%. This brought me to a 12-month PT of ~$590.</p>\n<p>In a bull case scenario where revenue growth exceeds 20% YoY from 2022-2025, or where the perpetual growth rate assumed in the model is changed to 4.0%, we see the price target soaring above $600.</p>\n<p>When initially developing my model and report, Adobe stock was ~$485. However, we've seen a run up of the price over the past few days, from about $515 to surpassing $550. It is typical to see a rally in tech stocks before their earnings, which deflates the potential return. This means that there may be a solid entry point immediately post-earnings, depending on if the price drops or not.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, this does not consider Adobe's share buyback plan that was authorized, which would increase the value of shares and earnings. I think that Q2 earnings should provide more clarity.</p>\n<p><b>VI. Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Adobe has seen major success in growth and scale, which will support its strategic initiatives. The firm has proven to be a leader in 2021 macroeconomic and software industry trends, which will provide tailwinds for growth of its subscription-based segments.</p>\n<p>With inflation fears, right now is the time to shift investments diversified across technology to more fundamentally stable large-cap firms, like Adobe, to combat uncertainty. I think there should be an optimal entry point immediately post-earnings, unless earnings drive the price higher after-hours. Regardless, as a growth prospect with proven cash flows and healthy margins, I see any entry in Adobe as a solid-long term pick that is less speculative of a play.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 14:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.\nThe firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140381227","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.\nThe firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond.\nAdobe’s scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.\nStrong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600.\n\nhapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI. Investment Thesis\nDespite rallying well over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) stock.\nAdobe's historical success with execution of a transition to a cloud-based subscription model will continue to drive strong revenue growth.\nThe firm is also well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond, however, many of these trends and growth opportunities are unrecognized.\nAdobe's scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.\nLastly, strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600 in a bull scenario.\nII. Company Overview\nData by YCharts\nAdobe operates worldwide, offering software and services used by professionals, marketers, students, and more for creating, managing, measuring, and engaging with compelling content and experiences. As of Q1 FY 2021, the firm generates their revenue from three main segments: Digital Media (~73% of revenues), Digital Experience (~24%), and Publishing & Advertising (~3%).\nThe digital media segment includes their most well-known product, Creative Cloud, as well as Document Cloud. Creative Cloud is a diverse toolkit built for creating, publishing, and promoting digital content. Some of the most well-known applications include Photoshop and Illustrator. Adobe Document Cloud is gaining momentum against pure-play firms like DocuSign and is becoming a fierce competitor, especially with regard to small and medium-sized businesses.\n(Figure 2.1: All Adobe Creative Cloud and Document Cloud tools. Source:Adobe Investor Relations)\nThe Digital Experience Cloud is designed to help users manage, measure, automate, and optimize customer experiences and customer engagement. Adobe has done a great job expanding into various industries through this segment, including retail, media, financial services, technology, education, and more. The segment has been slowly increasing in size and can be expected to provide long-term support to Adobe's strong revenue growth.\nThe third segment, formerly known as Print & Publishing, was renamed last quarter to \"Publishing & Advertising\", as Adobe shifted the revenues from their advertising portion of Digital Experience to this new segment. With the demand of print on the decline, this reclassification allows for a more accurate balance of product divisions. With data from only one quarter of this new classification, it's hard to evaluate the performance of advertising, but there should be more clarity over the next few quarters.\n(Figure 2.2: Some large organizations and industries using Experience Cloud. Source: Personal Pitch Deck;Adobe Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)\nIII. Growth Drivers1) Digital Business Transformation\nHistorically, Adobe has been one of the most successful firms in migrating a user base from a traditional one-time license-based model to a cloud-based subscription revenue model. A cloud-based subscription model is extremely crucial as it allows technology firms to see more stability in future revenue streams. As of last quarter, Adobe generates approximately 83% of revenues through a recurring stream. For analysts and investors, this gives confidence and a much clearer indication as to the quality and consistency of cash flows. It also allows cloud firms to strengthen margins and benefit from scale, which we already see with Adobe. Subscription revenues are derived from the Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, and the new Publishing & Advertising Segment (not accounted for below).\n(Figure 3.1: Subscription Revenue by Segment & Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model;Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)\nAnnualized recurring revenue, a more software industry-specific metric, sheds light on how much revenue the firm generates over the course of a year that is guaranteed to occur again. This value doesn't just tell us how much revenue is generated from subscriptions and contracts, but also roughly the net value of expansions and churn. As ARR growth continues to be positive, we see that a) more customers are paying for services each year, and b) customers are on average spending more with Adobe. Essentially, net expansions are outweighing churn, which could mean either a) or b) above, or a mix of both. Since the quantifiable values of net expansion and churn are not readily available in public filings, it is too difficult to explore this avenue further.\n(Figure 3.2: ARR and % Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model; Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)\nEven with a plateau of subscription and ARR growth, we are seeing >20% YoY revenue growth for a large-cap firm that has been a leader in the industry for well over a decade. The customer transition to the new revenue model is essentially complete and has consistently outperformed expectations, with stronger comparable margins across the board as Adobe continues to dominate in scale.\n2) Advertising, Analytics, & New Tech\nVarious profitable digital and marketing-related trends of 2021 and into the future include e-commerce, analytics, AI & automation, augmented reality, and virtual reality. We typically see large software firms position themselves to benefit from tailwinds through R&D to strengthen innovation, or M&A to expand market share and product diversification.\nAdobe has recently completed over a dozen strategic acquisitions and investments that revolve around these key areas. The firm is taking care to ensure their most recent acquisitions will be effectively integrated into their respective platforms to set up strong market positioning. At the end of last year, we heard from management that the team was most likely not planning any large acquisitions in 2021, mainly because 1) speculative software is trading at high multiples and is overvalued, and 2) so they can focus on working with what they currently have.\n(Figure 3.3: Acquisitions & Investments, 2018-2021. Source: Bloomberg)\nSpending about 17% of revenues on R&D as of last quarter, the firm has utilized their capital efficiently to foster innovation and a competitive edge. Adobe most recently has worked to expand the breadth of their Creative Cloud tools - especially ones designed for mobile devices - to increase the appeal of their products to different user groups in new or unique markets.\nEffective use of capital towards R&D and M&A initiatives led by strong margins and cash flows should allow the company to gain traction in new verticals and continue to accelerate revenue growth in the subscription segment.\n3) Market and Global Opportunity\nAs the firm shed light on its Total Addressable Market [TAM] for the next few years in its financial analyst meeting of 2020, Adobe has huge plans to capture diverse user groups to an expanding TAM in Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud by 2023 - their largest areas for growth. The projected TAM in these segments from 2021 to 2023 has grown 40.4%*, 180.0%*, and 19.4%*, respectively. We see Adobe has the largest potential in its Digital Media segment through Creative Cloud and Document Cloud, although the market for its Experience Cloud has still grown modestly. In the figures below, we take a look at some of these numbers, and some of the plans outlined by Adobe.\n(* - numbers calculated from financial analyst meeting slides from2018,2019, and2020, respectively)\n\n(Figures 3.4, 3.5, & 3.6: Total Addressable Market, various product lines. Source: Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)\nAdobe's product depth, market share, customer loyalty, and high brand recognition for their flagship creative software over the past two decades make a strong case as to why the firm can be expected to successfully execute its intermediate-term growth strategies. Adobe is positioned well to benefit from growth in the total addressable market for all three segments and specific products.\nWe have seen from earlier mentions of Adobe's expansion into key areas that they have already been successful in penetrating markets with web and mobile-based tools, and increased adoption of 3D development. This reinforces my view of Adobe's ability to continue to capture a larger share of the total addressable market for its Creative Cloud.\nThe firm's deep customer loyalty and brand recognition will allow the firm to continue to grab larger shares of the CRM market with their Experience Cloud platform as the company continues to expand further into unique industries like healthcare and education.\nIn this section, I'd also like to explore the importance of strong margins a bit further. According to Bloomberg data, Adobe's subscription revenue (which is generated from its cloud-based business) achieved a gross margin of 91% last quarter. If we look back to 2009, before Adobe began their transition to a cloud-based model, gross margin from subscription revenue was ~35%. For Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), another large-cap application software firm, gross margin last quarter from subscription was ~80%. Previously to their cloud model, in 2008, Salesforce's gross margin for the segment was ~87%.\nMy conclusion is that a company like Salesforce has struggled to execute a long-term cloud strategy that would allow them to truly benefit from scale. With the growth in gross margin for Adobe from 35% to 91% (a 160% increase) from 2009 to 2021, this means that cost of revenue for subscription and cloud-based services has been decreasing proportionally, which makes sense for a strategy that has been executed successfully. Essentially, this gives firms like Adobe the upper hand with the ability to reinvest more capital into the business to achieve its strategic initiatives, such as those outlined in their financial analyst meeting slides above.\nNext is global opportunity. As consumer confidence continues to increase, Global IT Spending is already on the rebound, benefitting Adobe nicely. Results for Q1 FY2021 gave insight toward how enterprises are increasing software spending again post-pandemic, with total revenue up about 26% over the previous quarter. This, along with Adobe's solid performance during the pandemic, prove how strong the company's fundamentals really are.\nFurthermore, Adobe currently generates ~58% of revenues from the Americas, which means that they already have proven success in other areas globally. If Adobe can increase exposure specifically in EMEA it can be lucrative as emerging markets are expected to outperform and benefit from increased foreign investment. There is more to be explored in this area of expansion.\nIV. Major Risks\nAlthough subscription growth is beginning to plateau at about 20% YoY, in the next few years, it may begin to decline. This means Adobe must work harder in gaining a competitive edge, most likely through M&A and R&D. If Adobe does not effectively integrate its acquisitions into its platforms, it can impact margins short-term and prove to be inefficient use of capital. With a strong cash flow and relatively small debt load, even in this scenario, I don't believe it would impact Adobe's ability to generate cash flows intermediate to long term.\nAccording to an analysis of Porter's Five Forces, the application software subsector has a high degree of competition and a medium threat of substitutes. Currently, Salesforce dominates the relationship management space. Adobe is gaining traction, but due to the long enterprise sales cycle nature of the industry, there may be a lag in a shift to an environment that is more favorable for Adobe's Experience Cloud growth. Therefore, stock price may not accurately reflect the success of this segment immediately.\nSoftware products are reliant on the same enterprise IT budget of a given firm. Adobe and other large-cap application software firms may have to develop a strategy to reduce costs and pricing short-term. However, with strong roots in the industry, a successful business model, and a long sales cycle, I don't see this having a huge impact on Adobe's market share.\nAlthough consumer confidence has continued to increase post-pandemic, there are still unprecedented effects that are unexpected and cannot be measured. If Global IT Spending does not rebound as quickly as expected, Adobe may continue to see quarters of unexpectedly slow growth. This is most damaging for companies that rely on large enterprise spending. However, the technology firms that seem to be benefitting the most from the pandemic and lockdown orders are cloud-based software.\nV. Valuation\n1) Comparative Valuation\n(Figure 4.1: Comparable Analysis. Source: Bloomberg)\nStarting with a quick comparative analysis, we see that Adobe is trading at a slight discount to its peers. In an industry that is highly speculative, Adobe provides an investment in a stock with less risk and solid returns.\nAn interesting analysis I conducted was a comparison of R&D expenditures to future projected revenue growth to get insight as to how efficient software firms are at utilizing their profits to focus on firm growth. In an industry where differentiation and innovation are key, I thought this concept would be interesting to observe. The graph below displays the top 25 application software firms, by market cap. Essentially, any firm above the line is currently using their capital efficiently towards greater growth, while those below the line are not using their capital efficiently. Comparing the findings of this graph with the risk vs. return of stocks above the line, we further see that Adobe is a solid long-term pick.\n(Figure 4.2: R&D vs. Future Revenue Growth Forecast. Source: Bloomberg; Personal Pitch Deck)\n2) Intrinsic Valuation\nThe first set of calculations was forecasting future revenue streams of the business segments. Based on my research and assumptions, I used a weighted moving average to calculate growth rates, then used a regression of historical market and industry growth expectations to adjust the top-line revenue estimates. The rest of the model was built upon a mix of more industry expectations, as well as assumptions, estimates, and long-term goals set forth by management.\nI calculated a discount rate of 6.87%, which was used to discount the projected cash flows until 2025. To calculate the present value of the cash flows of 2026-beyond, I used the perpetual growth rate method, and based on my concluding research, assumed a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%. This brought me to a 12-month PT of ~$590.\nIn a bull case scenario where revenue growth exceeds 20% YoY from 2022-2025, or where the perpetual growth rate assumed in the model is changed to 4.0%, we see the price target soaring above $600.\nWhen initially developing my model and report, Adobe stock was ~$485. However, we've seen a run up of the price over the past few days, from about $515 to surpassing $550. It is typical to see a rally in tech stocks before their earnings, which deflates the potential return. This means that there may be a solid entry point immediately post-earnings, depending on if the price drops or not.\nFurthermore, this does not consider Adobe's share buyback plan that was authorized, which would increase the value of shares and earnings. I think that Q2 earnings should provide more clarity.\nVI. Conclusion\nAdobe has seen major success in growth and scale, which will support its strategic initiatives. The firm has proven to be a leader in 2021 macroeconomic and software industry trends, which will provide tailwinds for growth of its subscription-based segments.\nWith inflation fears, right now is the time to shift investments diversified across technology to more fundamentally stable large-cap firms, like Adobe, to combat uncertainty. I think there should be an optimal entry point immediately post-earnings, unless earnings drive the price higher after-hours. Regardless, as a growth prospect with proven cash flows and healthy margins, I see any entry in Adobe as a solid-long term pick that is less speculative of a play.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187151599,"gmtCreate":1623747562811,"gmtModify":1704210269559,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187151599","repostId":"2143377637","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143377637","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623739560,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143377637?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 14:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Emirates got $3.1 billion from Dubai govt as pandemic drove losses","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143377637","media":"Reuters","summary":"DUBAI (Reuters) - State-owned Emirates said on Tuesday Dubai was committed to supporting it through ","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19445bb279ee35fb6a6b7e5b06d3e297\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"133\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DUBAI (Reuters) - State-owned Emirates said on Tuesday Dubai was committed to supporting it through the coronavirus crisis after the airline's holding company plunged to its first annual loss in over three decades.</p>\n<p>The Dubai government has injected $3.1 billion into Emirates since the onset of the pandemic, the airline group said in its annual report. It disclosed a $2 billion equity injection last year.</p>\n<p>Emirates airline made a 20.28 billion dirham ($5.52 billion) loss for the year, while the group recorded an annual loss of 22.1 billion dirhams, its first in 33 years.</p>\n<p>The airline, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the world's largest prior to the pandemic, saw revenue plunge 66.4% to 30.9 billion dirham as passenger traffic plummeted 88.3% to just 6.5 million</p>\n<p>\"\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> knows when the pandemic will be over, but we know recovery will be patchy,\" Emirates Chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum said in a statement.</p>\n<p>(Writing by Alexander Cornwell; Editing by Jason Neely and Muralikumar Anantharaman)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Emirates got $3.1 billion from Dubai govt as pandemic drove losses</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEmirates got $3.1 billion from Dubai govt as pandemic drove losses\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 14:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19445bb279ee35fb6a6b7e5b06d3e297\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"133\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DUBAI (Reuters) - State-owned Emirates said on Tuesday Dubai was committed to supporting it through the coronavirus crisis after the airline's holding company plunged to its first annual loss in over three decades.</p>\n<p>The Dubai government has injected $3.1 billion into Emirates since the onset of the pandemic, the airline group said in its annual report. It disclosed a $2 billion equity injection last year.</p>\n<p>Emirates airline made a 20.28 billion dirham ($5.52 billion) loss for the year, while the group recorded an annual loss of 22.1 billion dirhams, its first in 33 years.</p>\n<p>The airline, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the world's largest prior to the pandemic, saw revenue plunge 66.4% to 30.9 billion dirham as passenger traffic plummeted 88.3% to just 6.5 million</p>\n<p>\"\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> knows when the pandemic will be over, but we know recovery will be patchy,\" Emirates Chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum said in a statement.</p>\n<p>(Writing by Alexander Cornwell; Editing by Jason Neely and Muralikumar Anantharaman)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143377637","content_text":"DUBAI (Reuters) - State-owned Emirates said on Tuesday Dubai was committed to supporting it through the coronavirus crisis after the airline's holding company plunged to its first annual loss in over three decades.\nThe Dubai government has injected $3.1 billion into Emirates since the onset of the pandemic, the airline group said in its annual report. It disclosed a $2 billion equity injection last year.\nEmirates airline made a 20.28 billion dirham ($5.52 billion) loss for the year, while the group recorded an annual loss of 22.1 billion dirhams, its first in 33 years.\nThe airline, one of the world's largest prior to the pandemic, saw revenue plunge 66.4% to 30.9 billion dirham as passenger traffic plummeted 88.3% to just 6.5 million\n\"\"No one knows when the pandemic will be over, but we know recovery will be patchy,\" Emirates Chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum said in a statement.\n(Writing by Alexander Cornwell; Editing by Jason Neely and Muralikumar Anantharaman)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187159483,"gmtCreate":1623747528142,"gmtModify":1704210267574,"author":{"id":"3578182178836822","authorId":"3578182178836822","name":"Bruhman24","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578182178836822","authorIdStr":"3578182178836822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187159483","repostId":"1140381227","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140381227","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623736805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140381227?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 14:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140381227","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Despite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.</li>\n <li>The firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond.</li>\n <li>Adobe’s scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.</li>\n <li>Strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4641d2a64b72a5def91db89c766c634\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1023\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>I. Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Despite rallying well over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) stock.</p>\n<p>Adobe's historical success with execution of a transition to a cloud-based subscription model will continue to drive strong revenue growth.</p>\n<p>The firm is also well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond, however, many of these trends and growth opportunities are unrecognized.</p>\n<p>Adobe's scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.</p>\n<p>Lastly, strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600 in a bull scenario.</p>\n<p><b>II. Company Overview</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f64603318c032d51062fefbac14e0a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Adobe operates worldwide, offering software and services used by professionals, marketers, students, and more for creating, managing, measuring, and engaging with compelling content and experiences. As of&nbsp;Q1 FY 2021, the firm generates their revenue from three main segments: Digital Media (~73% of revenues), Digital Experience (~24%), and Publishing &amp; Advertising (~3%).</p>\n<p>The digital media segment includes their most well-known product, Creative Cloud, as well as Document Cloud. Creative Cloud is a diverse toolkit built for creating, publishing, and promoting digital content. Some of the most well-known applications include Photoshop and Illustrator. Adobe Document Cloud is gaining momentum against pure-play firms like DocuSign and is becoming a fierce competitor, especially with regard to small and medium-sized businesses.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0cc4cdfcefc85d46031470ea14b0b96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Figure 2.1: All Adobe Creative Cloud and Document Cloud tools. Source:Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p>The Digital Experience Cloud is designed to help users manage, measure, automate, and optimize customer experiences and customer engagement. Adobe has done a great job expanding into various industries through this segment, including retail, media, financial services, technology, education, and more. The segment has been slowly increasing in size and can be expected to provide long-term support to Adobe's strong revenue growth.</p>\n<p>The third segment, formerly known as Print &amp; Publishing, was renamed last quarter to \"Publishing &amp; Advertising\", as Adobe shifted the revenues from their advertising portion of Digital Experience to this new segment. With the demand of print on the decline, this reclassification allows for a more accurate balance of product divisions. With data from only one quarter of this new classification, it's hard to evaluate the performance of advertising, but there should be more clarity over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87624e36a52106e31d0d80466051fbed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"><span>(Figure 2.2: Some large organizations and industries using Experience Cloud. Source: Personal Pitch Deck;Adobe Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p><b>III. Growth Drivers1) Digital Business Transformation</b></p>\n<p>Historically, Adobe has been one of the most successful firms in migrating a user base from a traditional one-time license-based model to a cloud-based subscription revenue model. A cloud-based subscription model is extremely crucial as it allows technology firms to see more stability in future revenue streams. As of last quarter, Adobe generates approximately 83% of revenues through a recurring stream. For analysts and investors, this gives confidence and a much clearer indication as to the quality and consistency of cash flows. It also allows cloud firms to strengthen margins and benefit from scale, which we already see with Adobe. Subscription revenues are derived from the Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, and the new Publishing &amp; Advertising Segment (not accounted for below).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae29c71332820c9ea3bc7feb3e34f3f4\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>(Figure 3.1: Subscription Revenue by Segment &amp; Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model;Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)</span></p>\n<p>Annualized recurring revenue, a more software industry-specific metric, sheds light on how much revenue the firm generates over the course of a year that is guaranteed to occur again. This value doesn't just tell us how much revenue is generated from subscriptions and contracts, but also roughly the net value of expansions and churn. As ARR growth continues to be positive, we see that a) more customers are paying for services each year, and b) customers are on average spending more with Adobe. Essentially, net expansions are outweighing churn, which could mean either a) or b) above, or a mix of both. Since the quantifiable values of net expansion and churn are not readily available in public filings, it is too difficult to explore this avenue further.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c83308896f43725bd3fa575223afd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"><span>(Figure 3.2: ARR and % Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model; Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)</span></p>\n<p>Even with a plateau of subscription and ARR growth, we are seeing &gt;20% YoY revenue growth for a large-cap firm that has been a leader in the industry for well over a decade. The customer transition to the new revenue model is essentially complete and has consistently outperformed expectations, with stronger comparable margins across the board as Adobe continues to dominate in scale.</p>\n<p><b>2) Advertising, Analytics, &amp; New Tech</b></p>\n<p>Various profitable digital and marketing-related trends of 2021 and into the future include e-commerce, analytics, AI &amp; automation, augmented reality, and virtual reality. We typically see large software firms position themselves to benefit from tailwinds through R&amp;D to strengthen innovation, or M&amp;A to expand market share and product diversification.</p>\n<p>Adobe has recently completed over a dozen strategic acquisitions and investments that revolve around these key areas. The firm is taking care to ensure their most recent acquisitions will be effectively integrated into their respective platforms to set up strong market positioning. At the end of last year, we heard from management that the team was most likely not planning any large acquisitions in 2021, mainly because 1) speculative software is trading at high multiples and is overvalued, and 2) so they can focus on working with what they currently have.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d4103feae0e6b47c7e25cb538ad6a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\"><span>(Figure 3.3: Acquisitions &amp; Investments, 2018-2021. Source: Bloomberg)</span></p>\n<p>Spending about 17% of revenues on R&amp;D as of last quarter, the firm has utilized their capital efficiently to foster innovation and a competitive edge. Adobe most recently has worked to expand the breadth of their Creative Cloud tools - especially ones designed for mobile devices - to increase the appeal of their products to different user groups in new or unique markets.</p>\n<p>Effective use of capital towards R&amp;D and M&amp;A initiatives led by strong margins and cash flows should allow the company to gain traction in new verticals and continue to accelerate revenue growth in the subscription segment.</p>\n<p><b>3) Market and Global Opportunity</b></p>\n<p>As the firm shed light on its Total Addressable Market [TAM] for the next few years in its financial analyst meeting of 2020, Adobe has huge plans to capture diverse user groups to an expanding TAM in Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud by 2023 - their largest areas for growth. The projected TAM in these segments from 2021 to 2023 has grown 40.4%*, 180.0%*, and 19.4%*, respectively. We see Adobe has the largest potential in its Digital Media segment through Creative Cloud and Document Cloud, although the market for its Experience Cloud has still grown modestly. In the figures below, we take a look at some of these numbers, and some of the plans outlined by Adobe.</p>\n<p><i>(* - numbers calculated from financial analyst meeting slides from2018,2019, and2020, respectively)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c05a2d3b73284773f38278b989864a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cbbdf4bdb593b40ba4be71e3483ac91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>(Figures 3.4, 3.5, &amp; 3.6: Total Addressable Market, various product lines. Source: Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)</span></p>\n<p>Adobe's product depth, market share, customer loyalty, and high brand recognition for their flagship creative software over the past two decades make a strong case as to why the firm can be expected to successfully execute its intermediate-term growth strategies. Adobe is positioned well to benefit from growth in the total addressable market for all three segments and specific products.</p>\n<p>We have seen from earlier mentions of Adobe's expansion into key areas that they have already been successful in penetrating markets with web and mobile-based tools, and increased adoption of 3D development. This reinforces my view of Adobe's ability to continue to capture a larger share of the total addressable market for its Creative Cloud.</p>\n<p>The firm's deep customer loyalty and brand recognition will allow the firm to continue to grab larger shares of the CRM market with their Experience Cloud platform as the company continues to expand further into unique industries like healthcare and education.</p>\n<p>In this section, I'd also like to explore the importance of strong margins a bit further. According to Bloomberg data, Adobe's subscription revenue (which is generated from its cloud-based business) achieved a gross margin of 91% last quarter. If we look back to 2009, before Adobe began their transition to a cloud-based model, gross margin from subscription revenue was ~35%. For Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), another large-cap application software firm, gross margin last quarter from subscription was ~80%. Previously to their cloud model, in 2008, Salesforce's gross margin for the segment was ~87%.</p>\n<p>My conclusion is that a company like Salesforce has struggled to execute a long-term cloud strategy that would allow them to truly benefit from scale. With the growth in gross margin for Adobe from 35% to 91% (a 160% increase) from 2009 to 2021, this means that cost of revenue for subscription and cloud-based services has been decreasing proportionally, which makes sense for a strategy that has been executed successfully. Essentially, this gives firms like Adobe the upper hand with the ability to reinvest more capital into the business to achieve its strategic initiatives, such as those outlined in their financial analyst meeting slides above.</p>\n<p>Next is global opportunity. As consumer confidence continues to increase, Global IT Spending is already on the rebound, benefitting Adobe nicely. Results for Q1 FY2021 gave insight toward how enterprises are increasing software spending again post-pandemic, with total revenue up about 26% over the previous quarter. This, along with Adobe's solid performance during the pandemic, prove how strong the company's fundamentals really are.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, Adobe currently generates ~58% of revenues from the Americas, which means that they already have proven success in other areas globally. If Adobe can increase exposure specifically in EMEA it can be lucrative as emerging markets are expected to outperform and benefit from increased foreign investment. There is more to be explored in this area of expansion.</p>\n<p><b>IV. Major Risks</b></p>\n<p>Although subscription growth is beginning to plateau at about 20% YoY, in the next few years, it may begin to decline. This means Adobe must work harder in gaining a competitive edge, most likely through M&amp;A and R&amp;D. If Adobe does not effectively integrate its acquisitions into its platforms, it can impact margins short-term and prove to be inefficient use of capital. With a strong cash flow and relatively small debt load, even in this scenario, I don't believe it would impact Adobe's ability to generate cash flows intermediate to long term.</p>\n<p>According to an analysis of Porter's Five Forces, the application software subsector has a high degree of competition and a medium threat of substitutes. Currently, Salesforce dominates the relationship management space. Adobe is gaining traction, but due to the long enterprise sales cycle nature of the industry, there may be a lag in a shift to an environment that is more favorable for Adobe's Experience Cloud growth. Therefore, stock price may not accurately reflect the success of this segment immediately.</p>\n<p>Software products are reliant on the same enterprise IT budget of a given firm. Adobe and other large-cap application software firms may have to develop a strategy to reduce costs and pricing short-term. However, with strong roots in the industry, a successful business model, and a long sales cycle, I don't see this having a huge impact on Adobe's market share.</p>\n<p>Although consumer confidence has continued to increase post-pandemic, there are still unprecedented effects that are unexpected and cannot be measured. If Global IT Spending does not rebound as quickly as expected, Adobe may continue to see quarters of unexpectedly slow growth. This is most damaging for companies that rely on large enterprise spending. However, the technology firms that seem to be benefitting the most from the pandemic and lockdown orders are cloud-based software.</p>\n<p><b>V. Valuation</b></p>\n<p><b>1) Comparative Valuation</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb5f13cdb163707d91d814d480a77cb4\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"292\"><span>(Figure 4.1: Comparable Analysis. Source: Bloomberg)</span></p>\n<p>Starting with a quick comparative analysis, we see that Adobe is trading at a slight discount to its peers. In an industry that is highly speculative, Adobe provides an investment in a stock with less risk and solid returns.</p>\n<p>An interesting analysis I conducted was a comparison of R&amp;D expenditures to future projected revenue growth to get insight as to how efficient software firms are at utilizing their profits to focus on firm growth. In an industry where differentiation and innovation are key, I thought this concept would be interesting to observe. The graph below displays the top 25 application software firms, by market cap. Essentially, any firm above the line is currently using their capital efficiently towards greater growth, while those below the line are not using their capital efficiently. Comparing the findings of this graph with the risk vs. return of stocks above the line, we further see that Adobe is a solid long-term pick.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b2e34e56a06154b15bbe16a9936cf1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\"><span>(Figure 4.2: R&amp;D vs. Future Revenue Growth Forecast. Source: Bloomberg; Personal Pitch Deck)</span></p>\n<p><b>2) Intrinsic Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The first set of calculations was forecasting future revenue streams of the business segments. Based on my research and assumptions, I used a weighted moving average to calculate growth rates, then used a regression of historical market and industry growth expectations to adjust the top-line revenue estimates. The rest of the model was built upon a mix of more industry expectations, as well as assumptions, estimates, and long-term goals set forth by management.</p>\n<p>I calculated a discount rate of 6.87%, which was used to discount the projected cash flows until 2025. To calculate the present value of the cash flows of 2026-beyond, I used the perpetual growth rate method, and based on my concluding research, assumed a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%. This brought me to a 12-month PT of ~$590.</p>\n<p>In a bull case scenario where revenue growth exceeds 20% YoY from 2022-2025, or where the perpetual growth rate assumed in the model is changed to 4.0%, we see the price target soaring above $600.</p>\n<p>When initially developing my model and report, Adobe stock was ~$485. However, we've seen a run up of the price over the past few days, from about $515 to surpassing $550. It is typical to see a rally in tech stocks before their earnings, which deflates the potential return. This means that there may be a solid entry point immediately post-earnings, depending on if the price drops or not.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, this does not consider Adobe's share buyback plan that was authorized, which would increase the value of shares and earnings. I think that Q2 earnings should provide more clarity.</p>\n<p><b>VI. Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Adobe has seen major success in growth and scale, which will support its strategic initiatives. The firm has proven to be a leader in 2021 macroeconomic and software industry trends, which will provide tailwinds for growth of its subscription-based segments.</p>\n<p>With inflation fears, right now is the time to shift investments diversified across technology to more fundamentally stable large-cap firms, like Adobe, to combat uncertainty. I think there should be an optimal entry point immediately post-earnings, unless earnings drive the price higher after-hours. Regardless, as a growth prospect with proven cash flows and healthy margins, I see any entry in Adobe as a solid-long term pick that is less speculative of a play.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Adobe Could Be Worth $590: A Promising Look Ahead Of Q2 Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 14:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.\nThe firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434786-why-adobe-stock-could-be-worth-590-dollars","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140381227","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite rising over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe stock.\nThe firm is well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond.\nAdobe’s scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.\nStrong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600.\n\nhapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI. Investment Thesis\nDespite rallying well over 8% in the past week ahead of earnings, there is still room for upside in Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) stock.\nAdobe's historical success with execution of a transition to a cloud-based subscription model will continue to drive strong revenue growth.\nThe firm is also well-positioned to benefit from trends in the immediate future and beyond, however, many of these trends and growth opportunities are unrecognized.\nAdobe's scale and dominance will allow it to continue to thrive and benefit from rapid growth in its total addressable market across its diverse products.\nLastly, strong Q2 earnings could be the catalyst to push the stock over $600 in a bull scenario.\nII. Company Overview\nData by YCharts\nAdobe operates worldwide, offering software and services used by professionals, marketers, students, and more for creating, managing, measuring, and engaging with compelling content and experiences. As of Q1 FY 2021, the firm generates their revenue from three main segments: Digital Media (~73% of revenues), Digital Experience (~24%), and Publishing & Advertising (~3%).\nThe digital media segment includes their most well-known product, Creative Cloud, as well as Document Cloud. Creative Cloud is a diverse toolkit built for creating, publishing, and promoting digital content. Some of the most well-known applications include Photoshop and Illustrator. Adobe Document Cloud is gaining momentum against pure-play firms like DocuSign and is becoming a fierce competitor, especially with regard to small and medium-sized businesses.\n(Figure 2.1: All Adobe Creative Cloud and Document Cloud tools. Source:Adobe Investor Relations)\nThe Digital Experience Cloud is designed to help users manage, measure, automate, and optimize customer experiences and customer engagement. Adobe has done a great job expanding into various industries through this segment, including retail, media, financial services, technology, education, and more. The segment has been slowly increasing in size and can be expected to provide long-term support to Adobe's strong revenue growth.\nThe third segment, formerly known as Print & Publishing, was renamed last quarter to \"Publishing & Advertising\", as Adobe shifted the revenues from their advertising portion of Digital Experience to this new segment. With the demand of print on the decline, this reclassification allows for a more accurate balance of product divisions. With data from only one quarter of this new classification, it's hard to evaluate the performance of advertising, but there should be more clarity over the next few quarters.\n(Figure 2.2: Some large organizations and industries using Experience Cloud. Source: Personal Pitch Deck;Adobe Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)\nIII. Growth Drivers1) Digital Business Transformation\nHistorically, Adobe has been one of the most successful firms in migrating a user base from a traditional one-time license-based model to a cloud-based subscription revenue model. A cloud-based subscription model is extremely crucial as it allows technology firms to see more stability in future revenue streams. As of last quarter, Adobe generates approximately 83% of revenues through a recurring stream. For analysts and investors, this gives confidence and a much clearer indication as to the quality and consistency of cash flows. It also allows cloud firms to strengthen margins and benefit from scale, which we already see with Adobe. Subscription revenues are derived from the Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, and the new Publishing & Advertising Segment (not accounted for below).\n(Figure 3.1: Subscription Revenue by Segment & Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model;Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)\nAnnualized recurring revenue, a more software industry-specific metric, sheds light on how much revenue the firm generates over the course of a year that is guaranteed to occur again. This value doesn't just tell us how much revenue is generated from subscriptions and contracts, but also roughly the net value of expansions and churn. As ARR growth continues to be positive, we see that a) more customers are paying for services each year, and b) customers are on average spending more with Adobe. Essentially, net expansions are outweighing churn, which could mean either a) or b) above, or a mix of both. Since the quantifiable values of net expansion and churn are not readily available in public filings, it is too difficult to explore this avenue further.\n(Figure 3.2: ARR and % Growth. Source: Personal Financial Model; Adobe 10-Qs and 10-Ks 2017-2021)\nEven with a plateau of subscription and ARR growth, we are seeing >20% YoY revenue growth for a large-cap firm that has been a leader in the industry for well over a decade. The customer transition to the new revenue model is essentially complete and has consistently outperformed expectations, with stronger comparable margins across the board as Adobe continues to dominate in scale.\n2) Advertising, Analytics, & New Tech\nVarious profitable digital and marketing-related trends of 2021 and into the future include e-commerce, analytics, AI & automation, augmented reality, and virtual reality. We typically see large software firms position themselves to benefit from tailwinds through R&D to strengthen innovation, or M&A to expand market share and product diversification.\nAdobe has recently completed over a dozen strategic acquisitions and investments that revolve around these key areas. The firm is taking care to ensure their most recent acquisitions will be effectively integrated into their respective platforms to set up strong market positioning. At the end of last year, we heard from management that the team was most likely not planning any large acquisitions in 2021, mainly because 1) speculative software is trading at high multiples and is overvalued, and 2) so they can focus on working with what they currently have.\n(Figure 3.3: Acquisitions & Investments, 2018-2021. Source: Bloomberg)\nSpending about 17% of revenues on R&D as of last quarter, the firm has utilized their capital efficiently to foster innovation and a competitive edge. Adobe most recently has worked to expand the breadth of their Creative Cloud tools - especially ones designed for mobile devices - to increase the appeal of their products to different user groups in new or unique markets.\nEffective use of capital towards R&D and M&A initiatives led by strong margins and cash flows should allow the company to gain traction in new verticals and continue to accelerate revenue growth in the subscription segment.\n3) Market and Global Opportunity\nAs the firm shed light on its Total Addressable Market [TAM] for the next few years in its financial analyst meeting of 2020, Adobe has huge plans to capture diverse user groups to an expanding TAM in Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud by 2023 - their largest areas for growth. The projected TAM in these segments from 2021 to 2023 has grown 40.4%*, 180.0%*, and 19.4%*, respectively. We see Adobe has the largest potential in its Digital Media segment through Creative Cloud and Document Cloud, although the market for its Experience Cloud has still grown modestly. In the figures below, we take a look at some of these numbers, and some of the plans outlined by Adobe.\n(* - numbers calculated from financial analyst meeting slides from2018,2019, and2020, respectively)\n\n(Figures 3.4, 3.5, & 3.6: Total Addressable Market, various product lines. Source: Financial Analyst Meeting 2020 Slides, Adobe Investor Relations)\nAdobe's product depth, market share, customer loyalty, and high brand recognition for their flagship creative software over the past two decades make a strong case as to why the firm can be expected to successfully execute its intermediate-term growth strategies. Adobe is positioned well to benefit from growth in the total addressable market for all three segments and specific products.\nWe have seen from earlier mentions of Adobe's expansion into key areas that they have already been successful in penetrating markets with web and mobile-based tools, and increased adoption of 3D development. This reinforces my view of Adobe's ability to continue to capture a larger share of the total addressable market for its Creative Cloud.\nThe firm's deep customer loyalty and brand recognition will allow the firm to continue to grab larger shares of the CRM market with their Experience Cloud platform as the company continues to expand further into unique industries like healthcare and education.\nIn this section, I'd also like to explore the importance of strong margins a bit further. According to Bloomberg data, Adobe's subscription revenue (which is generated from its cloud-based business) achieved a gross margin of 91% last quarter. If we look back to 2009, before Adobe began their transition to a cloud-based model, gross margin from subscription revenue was ~35%. For Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), another large-cap application software firm, gross margin last quarter from subscription was ~80%. Previously to their cloud model, in 2008, Salesforce's gross margin for the segment was ~87%.\nMy conclusion is that a company like Salesforce has struggled to execute a long-term cloud strategy that would allow them to truly benefit from scale. With the growth in gross margin for Adobe from 35% to 91% (a 160% increase) from 2009 to 2021, this means that cost of revenue for subscription and cloud-based services has been decreasing proportionally, which makes sense for a strategy that has been executed successfully. Essentially, this gives firms like Adobe the upper hand with the ability to reinvest more capital into the business to achieve its strategic initiatives, such as those outlined in their financial analyst meeting slides above.\nNext is global opportunity. As consumer confidence continues to increase, Global IT Spending is already on the rebound, benefitting Adobe nicely. Results for Q1 FY2021 gave insight toward how enterprises are increasing software spending again post-pandemic, with total revenue up about 26% over the previous quarter. This, along with Adobe's solid performance during the pandemic, prove how strong the company's fundamentals really are.\nFurthermore, Adobe currently generates ~58% of revenues from the Americas, which means that they already have proven success in other areas globally. If Adobe can increase exposure specifically in EMEA it can be lucrative as emerging markets are expected to outperform and benefit from increased foreign investment. There is more to be explored in this area of expansion.\nIV. Major Risks\nAlthough subscription growth is beginning to plateau at about 20% YoY, in the next few years, it may begin to decline. This means Adobe must work harder in gaining a competitive edge, most likely through M&A and R&D. If Adobe does not effectively integrate its acquisitions into its platforms, it can impact margins short-term and prove to be inefficient use of capital. With a strong cash flow and relatively small debt load, even in this scenario, I don't believe it would impact Adobe's ability to generate cash flows intermediate to long term.\nAccording to an analysis of Porter's Five Forces, the application software subsector has a high degree of competition and a medium threat of substitutes. Currently, Salesforce dominates the relationship management space. Adobe is gaining traction, but due to the long enterprise sales cycle nature of the industry, there may be a lag in a shift to an environment that is more favorable for Adobe's Experience Cloud growth. Therefore, stock price may not accurately reflect the success of this segment immediately.\nSoftware products are reliant on the same enterprise IT budget of a given firm. Adobe and other large-cap application software firms may have to develop a strategy to reduce costs and pricing short-term. However, with strong roots in the industry, a successful business model, and a long sales cycle, I don't see this having a huge impact on Adobe's market share.\nAlthough consumer confidence has continued to increase post-pandemic, there are still unprecedented effects that are unexpected and cannot be measured. If Global IT Spending does not rebound as quickly as expected, Adobe may continue to see quarters of unexpectedly slow growth. This is most damaging for companies that rely on large enterprise spending. However, the technology firms that seem to be benefitting the most from the pandemic and lockdown orders are cloud-based software.\nV. Valuation\n1) Comparative Valuation\n(Figure 4.1: Comparable Analysis. Source: Bloomberg)\nStarting with a quick comparative analysis, we see that Adobe is trading at a slight discount to its peers. In an industry that is highly speculative, Adobe provides an investment in a stock with less risk and solid returns.\nAn interesting analysis I conducted was a comparison of R&D expenditures to future projected revenue growth to get insight as to how efficient software firms are at utilizing their profits to focus on firm growth. In an industry where differentiation and innovation are key, I thought this concept would be interesting to observe. The graph below displays the top 25 application software firms, by market cap. Essentially, any firm above the line is currently using their capital efficiently towards greater growth, while those below the line are not using their capital efficiently. Comparing the findings of this graph with the risk vs. return of stocks above the line, we further see that Adobe is a solid long-term pick.\n(Figure 4.2: R&D vs. Future Revenue Growth Forecast. Source: Bloomberg; Personal Pitch Deck)\n2) Intrinsic Valuation\nThe first set of calculations was forecasting future revenue streams of the business segments. Based on my research and assumptions, I used a weighted moving average to calculate growth rates, then used a regression of historical market and industry growth expectations to adjust the top-line revenue estimates. The rest of the model was built upon a mix of more industry expectations, as well as assumptions, estimates, and long-term goals set forth by management.\nI calculated a discount rate of 6.87%, which was used to discount the projected cash flows until 2025. To calculate the present value of the cash flows of 2026-beyond, I used the perpetual growth rate method, and based on my concluding research, assumed a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%. This brought me to a 12-month PT of ~$590.\nIn a bull case scenario where revenue growth exceeds 20% YoY from 2022-2025, or where the perpetual growth rate assumed in the model is changed to 4.0%, we see the price target soaring above $600.\nWhen initially developing my model and report, Adobe stock was ~$485. However, we've seen a run up of the price over the past few days, from about $515 to surpassing $550. It is typical to see a rally in tech stocks before their earnings, which deflates the potential return. This means that there may be a solid entry point immediately post-earnings, depending on if the price drops or not.\nFurthermore, this does not consider Adobe's share buyback plan that was authorized, which would increase the value of shares and earnings. I think that Q2 earnings should provide more clarity.\nVI. Conclusion\nAdobe has seen major success in growth and scale, which will support its strategic initiatives. The firm has proven to be a leader in 2021 macroeconomic and software industry trends, which will provide tailwinds for growth of its subscription-based segments.\nWith inflation fears, right now is the time to shift investments diversified across technology to more fundamentally stable large-cap firms, like Adobe, to combat uncertainty. I think there should be an optimal entry point immediately post-earnings, unless earnings drive the price higher after-hours. Regardless, as a growth prospect with proven cash flows and healthy margins, I see any entry in Adobe as a solid-long term pick that is less speculative of a play.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}