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2023-06-17

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Sea Limited: Finally A Buy After The Drastic Plunge

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$'","listText":"Aa $'","text":"Aa $'","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188329070121112","repostId":"2344411353","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2344411353","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1686985677,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2344411353?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-17 15:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: Finally A Buy After The Drastic Plunge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2344411353","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Yes, in our opinion, since its FQ4'22 efforts have signaled that it is possible for the management to immediately pull the necessary levers to achieve both GAAP profitability and decent top-line growth within one quarter. Most importantly, SE's revenue driver, the E-Commerce segment, continues to outperform with revenues of $2.1B  in FQ1'23, thanks to the Shopee platform expanding its local traffic share of up to 50% in Southeast Asia by May 2023. Due to this growing traffic share and cost optimizations thus far, the segment maintained its profitability with adj EBITDA of $207.7M  and margins of 9.8%  in the latest quarter. SE's balance sheet remains decent as well, with cash/ short-term investments of $6.58B  and moderating long-term debts of $3.34B  in FQ1'23. Most importantly, its Free Cash Flow generation has also improved to $504.5M , suggesting that some of the cost optimi","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>SE appears to be overly moderated after the FQ1&#39;23 earnings call since the e-commerce segment remains profitable with the investment arm finally disbanded.</p></li><li><p>While the gaming segment continues to underperform, we are not overly concerned yet due to the positive developments above.</p></li><li><p>Combined with the region&#39;s moderating inflationary pressures, we may see discretionary spending return to the previous cadence, lifting SE&#39;s top and bottom line growth ahead.</p></li><li><p>As a result, investors may consider establishing a small position here.</p></li></ul><h2>The SE Investment Thesis Is Much More Convincing Here</h2><p>By now, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea Limited</a> has already lost all of the FQ4&#39;22 gains, though successfully bounced from the mid $50s, implying the excellent support at those levels. As a result, we are not so bearish as to assume another Q4&#39;22 bottom retest at $40s. This is why.</p><p>The e-commerce company still reported a more than decent FQ1&#39;23 result, with expanding total revenues of $3.04B (-11.8% QoQ/ +4.9% YoY) and gross margins of 46.6% (-2.6 points QoQ/ +6.2 YoY). These alone suggested that demand remains robust with COGS already improving tremendously.</p><p>However, it seems that SE&#39;s aggressive cost optimizations in FQ4&#39;22 do not last, with its SG&amp;A expenses rising tremendously to $733.5M (+50.5% QoQ/ -44.4% YoY) and R&amp;D expenses of $320.5M (+31.2% QoQ/ -5.8% YoY) by the latest quarter.</p><p>These two segments alone accounted for the dramatic increase in the e-commerce company&#39;s operating expenses to $1.05B (+43.5% QoQ/ -36.7% YoY) in FQ1&#39;23, undoing much of its FQ4&#39;22 success. To further worsen the optics, it reported another -$177.4M in provision for credit losses (-65.4% QoQ/ +120.3% YoY) by the latest quarter, attributed to Sea Capital.</p><p>As a result of the reversal in its cost optimizations, SE only generated a less-than-halved operating income of $243.1M (-53.2% QoQ/ +148.8% YoY) in the latest quarter. This is on top of the -$117.9M impairment by the latest quarter, similar to the -$177.7M reported in FQ4&#39;22.</p><p>Therefore, it is unsurprising that the e-commerce company has reported an underwhelming FQ1&#39;23 EPS of $0.15 (-78.5% QoQ/ + 114.4% YoY), missing the consensus EPS estimates of $0.73 by a wide margin of -79.4%. This cadence has naturally resulted in the post-earnings call sell-off, which caused its stock prices to plunge by -32.5%.</p><p>Now that the pessimism is baked already in, fully reflected in SE&#39;s stock prices, is it a good time to add? Yes, in our opinion, since its FQ4&#39;22 efforts have signaled that it is possible for the management to immediately pull the necessary levers to achieve both GAAP profitability and decent top-line growth within one quarter.</p><p>Most importantly, SE&#39;s revenue driver, the E-Commerce segment, continues to outperform with revenues of $2.1B (inline QoQ/ +40% YoY) in FQ1&#39;23, thanks to the Shopee platform expanding its local traffic share of up to 50% in Southeast Asia by May 2023.</p><p>Due to this growing traffic share and cost optimizations thus far, the segment maintained its profitability with adj EBITDA of $207.7M (+5.9% QoQ/ +127.9% YoY) and margins of 9.8% (+0.5 points QoQ/ +59.3 YoY) in the latest quarter.</p><p>SE&#39;s balance sheet remains decent as well, with cash/ short-term investments of $6.58B (-4.4% QoQ/ -25.2% YoY) and moderating long-term debts of $3.34B (inline QoQ/ -20% YoY) in FQ1&#39;23. Most importantly, its Free Cash Flow generation has also improved to $504.5M (+183.4% QoQ), suggesting that some of the cost optimizations may further lift its liquidity ahead.</p><p>Unfortunately, there seems to be where the good news end for SE. India&#39;s ban on Free Fire and tightened discretionary spending have likely impacted Digital Entertainment&#39;s quarterly active users and paying users to 491.6M (+1.2% QoQ/ -20.1% YoY) and 37.6M (-13.7% QoQ/ -38.7% YoY) by the latest quarter, respectively.</p><p>This cadence has naturally contributed to the decline in its game bookings to $462.3M in FQ1&#39;23 (-14.9% QoQ/ -42.2% YoY). Since the segment used to be the company&#39;s bottom line driver, the cadence is worrying indeed, as reflected in the moderating adj EBITDA of $230.1M (-10.8% QoQ/ -46.6% YoY).</p><p>Then again, there is still a glimmer of hope ahead, since SE has prudently disbanded its investment arm, Sea Capital, supposedly attributed to the &#34;cooling investment environment globally as macroeconomic and market uncertainty weigh on valuations.&#34;</p><p>With the CIO of Sea Capital leaving his position to join the SE board of directors, it appears that the segment is the last piece of the company&#39;s cost optimization efforts. All for the better, in our view, since digital financial services only contributed a meager 13.7% to the company&#39;s top line and 19.4% of the bottom line in the latest quarter.</p><p>Assuming a small overhaul in the investment arm&#39;s headcount and operating expenses in FQ2&#39;23, we may see a more focused and leaner company by H2&#39;23, potentially contributing to its improved gross and operating margins as the macroeconomic outlook lifts.</p><p>For example, the regional inflation rate in South East Asia has fallen to 4.8% by March 2023, compared to the peak of 6.1% in December 2022. Singapore&#39;s CPI has also declined to 5.74% by April 2023, compared to the 6.62% reported in January 2023 and 6.12% in 2022.</p><p>Given the sustained downtrend, we may optimistically project a CPI of ~4% by the end of 2023, nearing the Monetary Authority of Singapore&#39;s projection of between 3.5% and 4.5%. This cadence may potentially ease the inflationary pressures while loosening the discretionary spending in the region.</p><h2>So, Is SE Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</h2><h4>SE 5Y EV/Revenue</h4><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c108a71c9c562a4905136c8412bbe2\" alt=\"S&amp;P Capital IQ\" title=\"S&amp;P Capital IQ\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\"/><span>S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p>And, it is for this reason that we believe the pessimism embedded in SE&#39;s NTM EV/ Revenue is unwarranted, since the stock is now overly moderated to 2.29x, compared to its 5Y mean of 7.15x and pre-pandemic mean of 4.7x.</p><p>While its top-line expansion may have decelerated, it is mostly attributed to the elevated interest rates and peak recessionary fears. These headwinds are only temporary, similarly impacting its e-commerce peers, Amazon (AMZN) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a> (MELI).</p><p>As a result of these promising developments and its depressed prices, we are finally rerating SE as a Buy due to the attractive risk-reward ratio. Then again, they must also be aware of the stock&#39;s elevated short interest of 7.27%, implying moderate volatility ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: Finally A Buy After The Drastic Plunge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: Finally A Buy After The Drastic Plunge\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-17 15:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611456-sea-limited-finally-buy-after-drastic-plunge><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySE appears to be overly moderated after the FQ1'23 earnings call since the e-commerce segment remains profitable with the investment arm finally disbanded.While the gaming segment continues to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611456-sea-limited-finally-buy-after-drastic-plunge\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611456-sea-limited-finally-buy-after-drastic-plunge","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2344411353","content_text":"SummarySE appears to be overly moderated after the FQ1'23 earnings call since the e-commerce segment remains profitable with the investment arm finally disbanded.While the gaming segment continues to underperform, we are not overly concerned yet due to the positive developments above.Combined with the region's moderating inflationary pressures, we may see discretionary spending return to the previous cadence, lifting SE's top and bottom line growth ahead.As a result, investors may consider establishing a small position here.The SE Investment Thesis Is Much More Convincing HereBy now, Sea Limited has already lost all of the FQ4'22 gains, though successfully bounced from the mid $50s, implying the excellent support at those levels. As a result, we are not so bearish as to assume another Q4'22 bottom retest at $40s. This is why.The e-commerce company still reported a more than decent FQ1'23 result, with expanding total revenues of $3.04B (-11.8% QoQ/ +4.9% YoY) and gross margins of 46.6% (-2.6 points QoQ/ +6.2 YoY). These alone suggested that demand remains robust with COGS already improving tremendously.However, it seems that SE's aggressive cost optimizations in FQ4'22 do not last, with its SG&A expenses rising tremendously to $733.5M (+50.5% QoQ/ -44.4% YoY) and R&D expenses of $320.5M (+31.2% QoQ/ -5.8% YoY) by the latest quarter.These two segments alone accounted for the dramatic increase in the e-commerce company's operating expenses to $1.05B (+43.5% QoQ/ -36.7% YoY) in FQ1'23, undoing much of its FQ4'22 success. To further worsen the optics, it reported another -$177.4M in provision for credit losses (-65.4% QoQ/ +120.3% YoY) by the latest quarter, attributed to Sea Capital.As a result of the reversal in its cost optimizations, SE only generated a less-than-halved operating income of $243.1M (-53.2% QoQ/ +148.8% YoY) in the latest quarter. This is on top of the -$117.9M impairment by the latest quarter, similar to the -$177.7M reported in FQ4'22.Therefore, it is unsurprising that the e-commerce company has reported an underwhelming FQ1'23 EPS of $0.15 (-78.5% QoQ/ + 114.4% YoY), missing the consensus EPS estimates of $0.73 by a wide margin of -79.4%. This cadence has naturally resulted in the post-earnings call sell-off, which caused its stock prices to plunge by -32.5%.Now that the pessimism is baked already in, fully reflected in SE's stock prices, is it a good time to add? Yes, in our opinion, since its FQ4'22 efforts have signaled that it is possible for the management to immediately pull the necessary levers to achieve both GAAP profitability and decent top-line growth within one quarter.Most importantly, SE's revenue driver, the E-Commerce segment, continues to outperform with revenues of $2.1B (inline QoQ/ +40% YoY) in FQ1'23, thanks to the Shopee platform expanding its local traffic share of up to 50% in Southeast Asia by May 2023.Due to this growing traffic share and cost optimizations thus far, the segment maintained its profitability with adj EBITDA of $207.7M (+5.9% QoQ/ +127.9% YoY) and margins of 9.8% (+0.5 points QoQ/ +59.3 YoY) in the latest quarter.SE's balance sheet remains decent as well, with cash/ short-term investments of $6.58B (-4.4% QoQ/ -25.2% YoY) and moderating long-term debts of $3.34B (inline QoQ/ -20% YoY) in FQ1'23. Most importantly, its Free Cash Flow generation has also improved to $504.5M (+183.4% QoQ), suggesting that some of the cost optimizations may further lift its liquidity ahead.Unfortunately, there seems to be where the good news end for SE. India's ban on Free Fire and tightened discretionary spending have likely impacted Digital Entertainment's quarterly active users and paying users to 491.6M (+1.2% QoQ/ -20.1% YoY) and 37.6M (-13.7% QoQ/ -38.7% YoY) by the latest quarter, respectively.This cadence has naturally contributed to the decline in its game bookings to $462.3M in FQ1'23 (-14.9% QoQ/ -42.2% YoY). Since the segment used to be the company's bottom line driver, the cadence is worrying indeed, as reflected in the moderating adj EBITDA of $230.1M (-10.8% QoQ/ -46.6% YoY).Then again, there is still a glimmer of hope ahead, since SE has prudently disbanded its investment arm, Sea Capital, supposedly attributed to the \"cooling investment environment globally as macroeconomic and market uncertainty weigh on valuations.\"With the CIO of Sea Capital leaving his position to join the SE board of directors, it appears that the segment is the last piece of the company's cost optimization efforts. All for the better, in our view, since digital financial services only contributed a meager 13.7% to the company's top line and 19.4% of the bottom line in the latest quarter.Assuming a small overhaul in the investment arm's headcount and operating expenses in FQ2'23, we may see a more focused and leaner company by H2'23, potentially contributing to its improved gross and operating margins as the macroeconomic outlook lifts.For example, the regional inflation rate in South East Asia has fallen to 4.8% by March 2023, compared to the peak of 6.1% in December 2022. Singapore's CPI has also declined to 5.74% by April 2023, compared to the 6.62% reported in January 2023 and 6.12% in 2022.Given the sustained downtrend, we may optimistically project a CPI of ~4% by the end of 2023, nearing the Monetary Authority of Singapore's projection of between 3.5% and 4.5%. This cadence may potentially ease the inflationary pressures while loosening the discretionary spending in the region.So, Is SE Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?SE 5Y EV/RevenueS&P Capital IQAnd, it is for this reason that we believe the pessimism embedded in SE's NTM EV/ Revenue is unwarranted, since the stock is now overly moderated to 2.29x, compared to its 5Y mean of 7.15x and pre-pandemic mean of 4.7x.While its top-line expansion may have decelerated, it is mostly attributed to the elevated interest rates and peak recessionary fears. These headwinds are only temporary, similarly impacting its e-commerce peers, Amazon (AMZN) and MercadoLibre (MELI).As a result of these promising developments and its depressed prices, we are finally rerating SE as a Buy due to the attractive risk-reward ratio. Then again, they must also be aware of the stock's elevated short interest of 7.27%, implying moderate volatility ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":188329070121112,"gmtCreate":1687004300529,"gmtModify":1687009889713,"author":{"id":"3578570601233366","authorId":"3578570601233366","name":"foolishbdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578570601233366","authorIdStr":"3578570601233366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aa $'","listText":"Aa $'","text":"Aa $'","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188329070121112","repostId":"2344411353","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}