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2023-02-25

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Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Accelerates, Adding Pressure for More Rate Hikes

2022-10-24

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Peloton Stock: Exercise Your Right to Stay Away

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Stock Market Sell-Off: 2 Safe Tech Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever

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Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index also climbed 0.6%.</p><p>Personal spending, after adjusting for changes in prices, jumped 1.1%, the largest advance since March 2021 following weakness at the end of last year. The increase reflected a pickup in outlays for goods and services, including motor vehicles as well as food services and accommodation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e93bfdf544e5f48656c5477f47a3b0\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists were for a 0.5% in the PCE price index and a 0.4% gain in the core. Real personal spending was projected to rise 1.1%.</p><p>Treasury yields rose and the S&amp;P 500 index futures extended losses on the day and the dollar jumped. Swaps traders now price in that the Fed will lift its policy rate 25 basis points at its next three meetings. Expectations on the terminal fed funds rate edged higher to about 5.4% by July, from around 5.38% earlier in the day.</p><p>From a year earlier, the PCE price index was up 5.4% in January, an acceleration from December. The core metric was up 4.7%, also faster than the previous month.</p><h2>Labor Market</h2><p>The latest figures underscore the risks of persistently high inflation. Much of the easing that was celebrated at the end of last year has largely been erased after revisions and the acceleration in January. Furthermore, resilient consumer spending paired with the exceptional strength of the labor market will make it more difficult for the Fed to get inflation to its 2% goal.</p><p>With the unemployment rate at its lowest level in more than 53 years, intense competition for a limited supply of workers has kept upward pressure on pay growth. Higher wages paired with excess savings have underpinned consumers and allowed them to keep spending for a variety of goods and services despite those rapid price increases.</p><p>Fed officials, particularly Chair Jerome Powell, have emphasized the importance of price growth in so-called core services ex-housing for the inflation outlook. This category, which is thought to be largely wage dependent, includes everything from health care to haircuts.</p><p>Services inflation excluding housing and energy services increased 0.6% in January, according to Bloomberg calculations.</p><p>Together, the data suggest central bankers will have to raise rates higher than they expected even just a few weeks ago.</p><h2>Incomes Jump</h2><p>Incomes rose 0.6% at the start of the year, bolstered by an accelleration in wage growth. The annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income, which was the biggest increase in decades, offset the expiration of the extended child tax credit as well as a decline one-time payments made by states.</p><p>Inflation-adjusted disposable income surged 1.4% in January, the biggest advance since March 2021 when the government distributed another round of stimulus payments. Wages and salaries, unadjusted for prices, increased 0.9%, more than double the prior’s month gain and the most since July.</p><p>The saving rate increased to 4.7%, the highest in a year, from 4.5%.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Accelerates, Adding Pressure for More Rate Hikes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Accelerates, Adding Pressure for More Rate Hikes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-24 21:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/us-pce-inflation-accelerates-adding-pressure-for-more-fed-hikes?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges unexpectedly accelerated in January and consumer spending surged after a year-end slump, adding pressure on policymakers to keep ratcheting up interest...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/us-pce-inflation-accelerates-adding-pressure-for-more-fed-hikes?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/us-pce-inflation-accelerates-adding-pressure-for-more-fed-hikes?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119061509","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges unexpectedly accelerated in January and consumer spending surged after a year-end slump, adding pressure on policymakers to keep ratcheting up interest rates.The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.6% from a month earlier, the most since June, Commerce Department data showed Friday. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index also climbed 0.6%.Personal spending, after adjusting for changes in prices, jumped 1.1%, the largest advance since March 2021 following weakness at the end of last year. The increase reflected a pickup in outlays for goods and services, including motor vehicles as well as food services and accommodation.The median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists were for a 0.5% in the PCE price index and a 0.4% gain in the core. Real personal spending was projected to rise 1.1%.Treasury yields rose and the S&P 500 index futures extended losses on the day and the dollar jumped. Swaps traders now price in that the Fed will lift its policy rate 25 basis points at its next three meetings. Expectations on the terminal fed funds rate edged higher to about 5.4% by July, from around 5.38% earlier in the day.From a year earlier, the PCE price index was up 5.4% in January, an acceleration from December. The core metric was up 4.7%, also faster than the previous month.Labor MarketThe latest figures underscore the risks of persistently high inflation. Much of the easing that was celebrated at the end of last year has largely been erased after revisions and the acceleration in January. Furthermore, resilient consumer spending paired with the exceptional strength of the labor market will make it more difficult for the Fed to get inflation to its 2% goal.With the unemployment rate at its lowest level in more than 53 years, intense competition for a limited supply of workers has kept upward pressure on pay growth. Higher wages paired with excess savings have underpinned consumers and allowed them to keep spending for a variety of goods and services despite those rapid price increases.Fed officials, particularly Chair Jerome Powell, have emphasized the importance of price growth in so-called core services ex-housing for the inflation outlook. This category, which is thought to be largely wage dependent, includes everything from health care to haircuts.Services inflation excluding housing and energy services increased 0.6% in January, according to Bloomberg calculations.Together, the data suggest central bankers will have to raise rates higher than they expected even just a few weeks ago.Incomes JumpIncomes rose 0.6% at the start of the year, bolstered by an accelleration in wage growth. The annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income, which was the biggest increase in decades, offset the expiration of the extended child tax credit as well as a decline one-time payments made by states.Inflation-adjusted disposable income surged 1.4% in January, the biggest advance since March 2021 when the government distributed another round of stimulus payments. Wages and salaries, unadjusted for prices, increased 0.9%, more than double the prior’s month gain and the most since July.The saving rate increased to 4.7%, the highest in a year, from 4.5%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981568368,"gmtCreate":1666569924354,"gmtModify":1676537768365,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981568368","repostId":"1182705211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182705211","pubTimestamp":1666569741,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182705211?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-24 08:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Peloton Stock: Exercise Your Right to Stay Away","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182705211","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsPeloton recently struck up a deal with a well-known sporting goods store chain. That","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsPeloton recently struck up a deal with a well-known sporting goods store chain. That’s helpful, no doubt, but it probably won’t be enough to buoy Peloton after multiple quarterly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/peloton-stock-nasdaqpton-exercise-your-right-to-stay-away\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Peloton Stock: Exercise Your Right to Stay Away</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPeloton Stock: Exercise Your Right to Stay Away\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-24 08:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/peloton-stock-nasdaqpton-exercise-your-right-to-stay-away><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsPeloton recently struck up a deal with a well-known sporting goods store chain. That’s helpful, no doubt, but it probably won’t be enough to buoy Peloton after multiple quarterly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/peloton-stock-nasdaqpton-exercise-your-right-to-stay-away\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/peloton-stock-nasdaqpton-exercise-your-right-to-stay-away","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182705211","content_text":"Story HighlightsPeloton recently struck up a deal with a well-known sporting goods store chain. That’s helpful, no doubt, but it probably won’t be enough to buoy Peloton after multiple quarterly losses.Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ: PTON) was briefly a COVID-19 pandemic darling, but those days are now in the rearview mirror. What’s left is a business that’s beset with multiple problems – too many for cautious investors to handle, so I am neutral on Peloton stock.Peloton sells an array of home exercise equipment online. Mainly, the company sells exercise bikes and treadmills, as well as apps to help customers manage these machines.Peloton stock rallied fast and far in 2020 – when people focused on their health and e-commerce was booming. Those trends have eased during the past couple of years, though, and Peloton now has to demonstrate its viability as a “going concern,” as they say. The company does have a notable deal with a sporting goods retailer, but Peloton’s problems are too numerous, and investors should choose fiscal fitness over speculative fervor.It’s Just One Mishap after Another for PelotonYou’ve probably heard about Murphy’s Law: “anything that can go wrong will go wrong.” This rule certainly applies to Peloton, which has suffered from legal problems and reputational damage due to a series of mishaps.According to a Bloomberg update, reports emerged last year that adults, pets, and children had been injured after being pulled underneath Peloton’s Tread+ treadmill. Tragically, at least one child died as a result. Consequently, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission advised that Tread+ owners should stop using it immediately and should contact Peloton for a refund.The numbers are alarming: in addition to the reported death, Peloton has received 335 incident reports concerning the Tread+ treadmill. These include 87 reports of injuries to the consumers. Even beyond slowing the sales of the $4,300 treadmills, these incidents made Peloton a laughingstock among some users of financial message boards.This is no laughing matter, however. Frustratingly, Peloton still hasn’t finalized a fix for the Tread+ treadmill. As a result, the company has extended the refund window for current users of this product.There are other problems to report, as well. A number of executives have left Peloton, including Chief People Officer Shari Eaton. I already alluded to Peloton’s slowdown in sales as people returned to gyms when the COVID-19 threat receded. In case all of that isn’t enough, Peloton is now being sued over allegations that an executive made fun of a trainer’s Irish accent.Dick’s Sporting Goods Deal is Encouraging but Won’t Fix PelotonSometimes, a single positive catalyst can save a company from financial ruin. Perhaps some investors are pinning their hopes on a deal with sporting goods retail chain Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) to keep Peloton stock afloat or even spark a turnaround. However, cautious traders shouldn’t let optimism diminish their skepticism.Here’s the lowdown. Apparently, some of Peloton’s products – including the Tread, but definitely not the notorious Tread+ – will be available for sale at over 100 Dick’s U.S. retail locations and on the retailer’s e-commerce platform. Peloton Senior Vice President of Global Direct Sales, Jen Parker, assured that Dick’s is a “natural fit” for the Peloton brand.Is it, though? Consider why many people stop off at Dick’s in the first place. They don’t typically think of Dick’s as a high-end fitness equipment store. Customers are more likely to pick up a much less expensive piece of sports or workout gear or clothing there. Sure, they might see a pricey Peloton bike or treadmill, but then they could easily buy a less expensive version online from a competing seller.So, before you hastily buy Peloton stock because of the Dick’s deal, consider the bigger picture. During the three months ended June 30, 2022, Peloton’s net loss ballooned to $1.24 billion, versus a $313.2 million loss in the year-earlier quarter. Shockingly, Peloton has recorded six consecutive quarters of losses.Then, we have to consider Peloton’s job cuts. Just this year, Peloton has implemented four rounds of workforce reductions, including a recent slashing of 500 jobs. Is this what one would expect from a company in turnaround mode?Wait – I’m not even finished yet. Just to add one more problem to the list, Peloton co-founder John Foley faced “repeated margin calls on money he borrowed against his Peloton holdings” before he left the company’s board in September. That’s according to “people familiar with the situation,” cited by the Wall Street Journal, and it’s another sign of dysfunction for Peloton.Is PTON Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?Turning to Wall Street, PTON stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 12 Buys, seven Holds, and two Sell ratings. The average Peloton price target is $16.13, implying a 119.75% upside potential.Conclusion: Should You Consider Peloton Stock?For all I know, Peloton stock could turn a corner tomorrow and start climbing higher. This would require a miracle, though, and sensible investors don’t need to get involved in problem-riddled Peloton now. Sure, the arrangement with Dick’s could help Peloton a little bit. However, between the company’s financial quagmire and its reputational issues, there are just too many reasons to refrain from investing in Peloton.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915147322,"gmtCreate":1665007046866,"gmtModify":1676537540846,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915147322","repostId":"2272834099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2272834099","pubTimestamp":1664983956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272834099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272834099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There's no guarantee these Buffett stocks will take off. But the chances appear to be pretty good.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects for the stocks he buys for <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>.</p><p>That is absolutely the correct mindset to have. However, if I had to pick the stocks in Berkshire&#39;s portfolio that would probably deliver strong gains over the near term, the decision wouldn&#39;t be that difficult. Here are the three Buffett stocks I think are most likely to soar in Q4.</p><h2>1. Chevron</h2><p><b>Chevron</b> now ranks as the fourth-largest position in Buffett&#39;s portfolio. It&#39;s one of the few stocks that the Berkshire Hathaway CEO has been consistently buying for several consecutive quarters.</p><p>The oil and gas giant also stands as one of the few big winners for Buffett so far in 2022. Chevron&#39;s share price has jumped close to 30% year to date. This gain stemmed in large part from Ukraine war, a move that disrupted the global energy market.</p><p>I think that Chevron stock will probably move even higher in Q4. Any hopes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would end quickly have evaporated. European Union leaders agreed to ban 90% of most Russian oil imports by the end of this year. OPEC+ members are meeting this week to consider cutting oil production.</p><p>All of this could translate to higher oil prices, which would be bad news for the public but good news for Chevron. With shares trading at around nine times expected earnings, Chevron&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t so great that the stock wouldn&#39;t benefit from further global supply tightening.</p><h2>2. Occidental Petroleum</h2><p>Buffett has become a huge fan of <b>Occidental Petroleum</b>. After months of aggressive buying, Berkshire now owns nearly 21% of the oil and gas company.</p><p>Occidental has been the best-performing stock in Berkshire&#39;s entire portfolio so far this year. Its shares have skyrocketed by more than 120%. At one point, Oxy was up over 150% year to date.</p><p>Can Occidental keep its momentum going in Q4? I think so. Importantly, the company benefits from the same global dynamics that should help Chevron. The two stocks also share nearly identical forward earnings multiples.</p><p>But there&#39;s another factor that could boost Occidental stock even more this year. In August, Berkshire won regulatory authorization to acquire up to 50% of Occidental. If Buffett keeps buying shares, it&#39;s almost a certainty that Occidental stock will keep rising.</p><h2>3. Apple</h2><p>You could make a good case that <b>Apple</b> ranks as Buffett&#39;s favorite stock after Berkshire itself. Apple is by far the biggest holding in Berkshire&#39;s portfolio. Buffett has referred to it as one of Berkshire&#39;s &#34;four giants.&#34; The other three &#34;giants&#34; -- the insurance business, BNSF Railway, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy -- are Berkshire subsidiaries.</p><p>Unlike Chevron and Occidental, Apple has been a loser for Buffett in 2022. Shares of the tech giant have plunged around 20% year to date.</p><p>Don&#39;t think for a second that Apple can&#39;t rebound strongly in Q4, though. One key reason behind the stock&#39;s recent slide is a Bloomberg report that Apple asked certain suppliers to scale back production of the new iPhone 14. But stories based on anonymous sources don&#39;t always pan out.</p><p>At least one Wall Street analyst, Rosenblatt Securities, thinks that consumers in the U.S. and in other countries could enthusiastically buy Apple&#39;s new products. All it would take for Apple stock to soar from current levels is for the company to beat sales expectations during the holiday season.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果","CVX":"雪佛龙","OXY":"西方石油","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272834099","content_text":"Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects for the stocks he buys for Berkshire Hathaway.That is absolutely the correct mindset to have. However, if I had to pick the stocks in Berkshire's portfolio that would probably deliver strong gains over the near term, the decision wouldn't be that difficult. Here are the three Buffett stocks I think are most likely to soar in Q4.1. ChevronChevron now ranks as the fourth-largest position in Buffett's portfolio. It's one of the few stocks that the Berkshire Hathaway CEO has been consistently buying for several consecutive quarters.The oil and gas giant also stands as one of the few big winners for Buffett so far in 2022. Chevron's share price has jumped close to 30% year to date. This gain stemmed in large part from Ukraine war, a move that disrupted the global energy market.I think that Chevron stock will probably move even higher in Q4. Any hopes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would end quickly have evaporated. European Union leaders agreed to ban 90% of most Russian oil imports by the end of this year. OPEC+ members are meeting this week to consider cutting oil production.All of this could translate to higher oil prices, which would be bad news for the public but good news for Chevron. With shares trading at around nine times expected earnings, Chevron's valuation isn't so great that the stock wouldn't benefit from further global supply tightening.2. Occidental PetroleumBuffett has become a huge fan of Occidental Petroleum. After months of aggressive buying, Berkshire now owns nearly 21% of the oil and gas company.Occidental has been the best-performing stock in Berkshire's entire portfolio so far this year. Its shares have skyrocketed by more than 120%. At one point, Oxy was up over 150% year to date.Can Occidental keep its momentum going in Q4? I think so. Importantly, the company benefits from the same global dynamics that should help Chevron. The two stocks also share nearly identical forward earnings multiples.But there's another factor that could boost Occidental stock even more this year. In August, Berkshire won regulatory authorization to acquire up to 50% of Occidental. If Buffett keeps buying shares, it's almost a certainty that Occidental stock will keep rising.3. AppleYou could make a good case that Apple ranks as Buffett's favorite stock after Berkshire itself. Apple is by far the biggest holding in Berkshire's portfolio. Buffett has referred to it as one of Berkshire's \"four giants.\" The other three \"giants\" -- the insurance business, BNSF Railway, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy -- are Berkshire subsidiaries.Unlike Chevron and Occidental, Apple has been a loser for Buffett in 2022. Shares of the tech giant have plunged around 20% year to date.Don't think for a second that Apple can't rebound strongly in Q4, though. One key reason behind the stock's recent slide is a Bloomberg report that Apple asked certain suppliers to scale back production of the new iPhone 14. But stories based on anonymous sources don't always pan out.At least one Wall Street analyst, Rosenblatt Securities, thinks that consumers in the U.S. and in other countries could enthusiastically buy Apple's new products. All it would take for Apple stock to soar from current levels is for the company to beat sales expectations during the holiday season.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912759039,"gmtCreate":1664921108721,"gmtModify":1676537527021,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912759039","repostId":"2272078402","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2272078402","pubTimestamp":1664896628,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272078402?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-04 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Growth Stocks That Could Jump 64.1% to 86.1% Higher, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272078402","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Investment bank analysts think both of these stocks have what they need to deliver big gains in the foreseeable future.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Look out below. For months on end, bears have been running loose through the streets of lower Manhattan. They&#39;re swinging great big bloody paws down on the price of any stock that tries to rise, and there isn&#39;t much that anyone can do about it.</p><p>A bear market may be pushing down all your favorite stocks right now but that doesn&#39;t mean they&#39;ll never recover. In fact, analysts who follow these two stocks think their prices could soar 64.1% to 86.1% higher once the rest of the stock market considers the opportunities in front of their underlying businesses.</p><h2>1. Moderna</h2><p>Shares of <b>Moderna</b> got way ahead of themselves when the biopharmaceutical company&#39;s COVID-19 vaccine was relatively new. Unfortunately, the stock has collapsed by around 75% from the peak it reached in 2021.</p><p>Moderna briefly had one of the highest market values in the entire biopharmaceutical industry. Now that its market cap has receded to around $48 billion, Wall Street analysts think it can outperform. The average price target on this stock represents an 86.1% premium at the moment.</p><p>Sales of Spikevax, Moderna&#39;s COVID-19 vaccine slid from $5.9 billion in the first quarter of 2022 to $4.5 billion during the second. We could see coronavirus vaccine sales stabilize in the last half of the year. In August, the FDA authorized Moderna&#39;s omicron-targeting booster shot for emergency use.</p><p>In addition to COVID-vaccine revenue, Moderna has a chance to launch additional products over the next couple of years. For example, the company has a cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine in late clinical-stage testing that could be a very big deal. CMV is a widely prevalent form of herpesvirus that causes severe problems for immunocompromised people everywhere. There aren&#39;t any available vaccines to protect against CMV infections. If Moderna&#39;s becomes the first it could generate billions in annual revenue.</p><h2>2. Pubmatic</h2><p><b>Pubmatic</b> operates a sell-side platform for publishers and application developers that want to maximize the monetization of their online content. The stock soared in 2021, but it&#39;s since fallen around 58% from its all-time high.</p><p>Shares of Pubmatic have been under pressure lately because investors are worried that a global economic slowdown will limit demand for advertising across the board. Analysts on Wall Street aren&#39;t nearly as concerned. The consensus price target on Pubmatic right now suggests a 64.1% gain could be around the corner.</p><p>Analysts aren&#39;t too worried about a global economic slowdown pinching Pubmatic&#39;s ability to grow because the company&#39;s share of the digital advertising business is currently small and rising rapidly. At the end of 2021, the company thinks it had just 3% to 4% of the market for programmatic advertising.</p><p>Pubmatic owns a cloud-based platform that is built from the ground up to handle every imaginable digital ad format, including connected television (CTV). This June, the company&#39;s platform processed 409 billion ad impressions per day and video-related ads are driving growth. CVT revenue in the second quarter soared 150% year over year.</p><p>Investors worried a potential recession will lower overall demand for advertising will be glad to know that Pubmatic&#39;s clients keep coming back for more. The company posted a 130% net-dollar retention rate for the 12 months that ended June 30, 2022.</p><p>It&#39;s easy to see why Pubmatic is pulling market share away from the digital advertising industry&#39;s largest players. Google and Facebook are losing ground to companies like Pubmatic because they operate what industry experts refer to as walled gardens. Instead of partnering with either publishers or advertisers, Facebook and Google are active on both sides of the advertising equation. With a better operating model than its enormous competitors, Pubmatic&#39;s business, and its stock price could rise dramatically once the present fear of recession gives way to enthusiasm for a subsequent recovery period.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Growth Stocks That Could Jump 64.1% to 86.1% Higher, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Growth Stocks That Could Jump 64.1% to 86.1% Higher, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-04 23:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/03/2-growth-stocks-that-could-jump-641-to-861-higher/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Look out below. For months on end, bears have been running loose through the streets of lower Manhattan. They're swinging great big bloody paws down on the price of any stock that tries to rise, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/03/2-growth-stocks-that-could-jump-641-to-861-higher/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PUBM":"PubMatic, Inc.","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/03/2-growth-stocks-that-could-jump-641-to-861-higher/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272078402","content_text":"Look out below. For months on end, bears have been running loose through the streets of lower Manhattan. They're swinging great big bloody paws down on the price of any stock that tries to rise, and there isn't much that anyone can do about it.A bear market may be pushing down all your favorite stocks right now but that doesn't mean they'll never recover. In fact, analysts who follow these two stocks think their prices could soar 64.1% to 86.1% higher once the rest of the stock market considers the opportunities in front of their underlying businesses.1. ModernaShares of Moderna got way ahead of themselves when the biopharmaceutical company's COVID-19 vaccine was relatively new. Unfortunately, the stock has collapsed by around 75% from the peak it reached in 2021.Moderna briefly had one of the highest market values in the entire biopharmaceutical industry. Now that its market cap has receded to around $48 billion, Wall Street analysts think it can outperform. The average price target on this stock represents an 86.1% premium at the moment.Sales of Spikevax, Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine slid from $5.9 billion in the first quarter of 2022 to $4.5 billion during the second. We could see coronavirus vaccine sales stabilize in the last half of the year. In August, the FDA authorized Moderna's omicron-targeting booster shot for emergency use.In addition to COVID-vaccine revenue, Moderna has a chance to launch additional products over the next couple of years. For example, the company has a cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine in late clinical-stage testing that could be a very big deal. CMV is a widely prevalent form of herpesvirus that causes severe problems for immunocompromised people everywhere. There aren't any available vaccines to protect against CMV infections. If Moderna's becomes the first it could generate billions in annual revenue.2. PubmaticPubmatic operates a sell-side platform for publishers and application developers that want to maximize the monetization of their online content. The stock soared in 2021, but it's since fallen around 58% from its all-time high.Shares of Pubmatic have been under pressure lately because investors are worried that a global economic slowdown will limit demand for advertising across the board. Analysts on Wall Street aren't nearly as concerned. The consensus price target on Pubmatic right now suggests a 64.1% gain could be around the corner.Analysts aren't too worried about a global economic slowdown pinching Pubmatic's ability to grow because the company's share of the digital advertising business is currently small and rising rapidly. At the end of 2021, the company thinks it had just 3% to 4% of the market for programmatic advertising.Pubmatic owns a cloud-based platform that is built from the ground up to handle every imaginable digital ad format, including connected television (CTV). This June, the company's platform processed 409 billion ad impressions per day and video-related ads are driving growth. CVT revenue in the second quarter soared 150% year over year.Investors worried a potential recession will lower overall demand for advertising will be glad to know that Pubmatic's clients keep coming back for more. The company posted a 130% net-dollar retention rate for the 12 months that ended June 30, 2022.It's easy to see why Pubmatic is pulling market share away from the digital advertising industry's largest players. Google and Facebook are losing ground to companies like Pubmatic because they operate what industry experts refer to as walled gardens. Instead of partnering with either publishers or advertisers, Facebook and Google are active on both sides of the advertising equation. With a better operating model than its enormous competitors, Pubmatic's business, and its stock price could rise dramatically once the present fear of recession gives way to enthusiasm for a subsequent recovery period.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912629438,"gmtCreate":1664834913125,"gmtModify":1676537513913,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912629438","repostId":"1155119620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155119620","pubTimestamp":1664810520,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155119620?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Hello Recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155119620","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Hallow","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>A friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4&#39;22 earnings on 27 October 2022.</li><li>It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Halloween.</li><li>If the reports were indeed true, we might see the company report impacted earnings for H2&#39;22.</li><li>That would put more downward pressure on the stock performance of the world&#39;s largest market cap company, which has been greatly see-sawing for the past year.</li><li>Tragic indeed, since we were more hopeful.</li></ul><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) throne as the world&#39;s most valuable company seems a little shaky, with the onslaught of negative news thus far. The company had to cut itsiPhone14 production output by -6.66%, back to its original plan of 90M handsets, similar to previous releases. On one hand, we expect some of those headwinds to be well balanced by the robust demand for its premium models, compensating for the lost volume with higher margins. On the other hand, it is apparent that the rising inflation, record high oil/gas prices, China&#39;s economic slump (one of AAPL&#39;s best markets), and geopolitical issues in the EU are impacting consumers&#39; discretionary spending, with the global smartphone market expected to deflate by -6.5% in 2022 to 1.27B units instead.</p><p>It remains to be seen if the Cupertino giant will suffer financially during this economic downturn, since the previous recession in 2008 had impacted AAPL&#39;s top and bottom lines growth to a certain extent. The company reported a notable YoY growth of 14.4% in revenues and 34.69% in net incomes for FY2009, compared to 52.5% and 75.07% in FY2009. The recessionary impacts were considerably mild then, since consumer discretionary spending remained relatively robust for the company.</p><p>Nonetheless, we are already starting to see some stock weaknesses. AAPL has continuously failed to break its resistance level at the $180s and, consequently, lost -22.10% of its value from its peak levels in March and August 2022. The S&amp;P 500 Index had also plunged by -24.10% YTD, indicating peak market pessimism and fear levels. During the previous recession, both stocks had tanked, with AAPL reporting a -52.21% plunge and the S&amp;P 500 a -43.37% plunge between August and December 2008.</p><p>However, all hope is not lost, since the September CPI released in early October may provide the potential catalyst for the stock market&#39;s recovery, due to the Fed&#39;s projected terminal rate of4.6% by 2023. This potentially indicates a 75 basis point hike in November, with January 2023 moderating with a 50 basis point hike. Therefore, we may speculatively assume that most of the pessimism is already baked in, barring an earnings miss ahead. We shall see.</p><p><b>Mr. Market Is Still Hopeful About This Last Frontier</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e6e5a1cae35b8931343e48558a302b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>For FQ4&#39;22, AAPL is expected to report revenues of $88.74B and operating margins of 27.4%, representing an increase of 6.96% though a moderation of 0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, an increase of 6.45% and a decline of -1.1 percentage points YoY, respectively, with the latter attributed to the rising costs. It remains to be seen if AAPL will be able to achieve its previous guidance of accelerated sales and gross margins between 41.5% to 42.5% for FQ4&#39;22.</p><p>In contrast, consensus estimates that AAPL will report net incomes of $20.37B and net income margins of 23% for the upcoming quarter, indicating certain headwinds to its profitability, with a minimal increase of 4.78% and a decline of -0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, a notable decline of -0.87% and -1.7 percentage points YoY, respectively. With an estimated EPS of $1.27 for FQ4&#39;22, AAPL would be looking at a decent 5.83% QoQ and 2.07% YoY growth. It might just be enough to satisfy Mr. Market&#39;s highly pessimistic outlook, preserving its cult stock status ahead.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4647325ee184db498185ed216ae70003\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Nonetheless, Mr. Market is cautiously confident about AAPL&#39;s projected cash flow, with a Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation of $21.89B and an FCF margin of 24.6% in FQ4&#39;22. It indicated a decent improvement of 5.29% and -0.5 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, massive YoY growth of 28.91% and 4.2 percentage points, respectively. AAPL&#39;s chances of success would be higher as well, assuming aggressive cost cuts across the board. We shall see, given the historical trend of elevated capital expenditures thus far, especially in FQ4s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2272b2e2674db1028a34156cdb527164\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Over the next four years, AAPL is expected to report revenue and net income growth at a CAGR of 5.19% and 2.98%, respectively. For now, Mr. Market remains somewhat positive, since these long-term projections and FY2022 estimates remain in line since our previous analysis in August, though slightly discounted by -2.9% since May 2022. Its upcoming earnings call will make or break AAPL&#39;s stock performance, as the EU enters its first winter without Russian gas and the Feds continue to fight against the rising inflation through 2023.</p><p>In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on AAPL, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.</p><ul><li>Apple Vs. Meta: Battle Of The Mixed Reality</li><li>AnAppleA Day Keeps The Portfolio Healthy (And Potentially, Recession At Bay)</li><li>CanAppleBe The New Tesla - Smartphone On Wheels By 2025?</li></ul><p><b>So, Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?AAPL 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a36ca45afe53753e7a5a6854436f2769\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>AAPL is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 5.81x and NTM P/E of 22.92x, higher than its 5Y mean of 4.63x and 21.94x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $142.84, down -21.91% from its 52 weeks high of $182.94, though at a premium of 10.69% from its 52 weeks low of $129.04. With a consensus estimate price target of $188.22, it is apparent that there is still a notable 32.10% upside from current prices</p><p><b>AAPL &amp; SPY 5Y/1Y Stock Price</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1e569f2277b0630924e459640a4bc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Both stocks also have had a relatively interesting co-existing relationship in their performance thus far, naturally, since AAPL accounts for 7.1% of the S&amp;P 500 Index weighting. While APPL obviously had better returns thus far for the past 5Y at 289.6% and 10Y at 597.4%, the S&amp;P 500 has also fared comparatively decent with 57.4% and 204.2%, respectively. These numbers are impressive, given that many other stocks have been decimated thus far.</p><p>With the stocks trading below their 50 and 100-day moving averages, both look relatively attractive, considering the massive returns upon market recovery by Q1&#39;23. Naturally, the market will always be full of pitfalls for anyone who tries to pitch the perfect timing, since there may still be some downsides from current levels. As a result, investors with higher risk tolerances may consider nibbling at these levels, fully understanding the great importance of AAPL through the next decade.</p><p>Otherwise, conservative investors (like myself) will be waiting for more clarity from its upcoming earnings call, since the whole market seems to be heading for destruction one way or another. With little catalyst for short-term recovery, the AAPL stock will be testing the June lows of $130s over the next week or so. If that support level is breached, my oh my, we are in for a catastrophic rollercoaster ride indeed. Good luck all.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Hello Recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Hello Recession\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-03 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155119620","content_text":"SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Halloween.If the reports were indeed true, we might see the company report impacted earnings for H2'22.That would put more downward pressure on the stock performance of the world's largest market cap company, which has been greatly see-sawing for the past year.Tragic indeed, since we were more hopeful.Investment ThesisApple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) throne as the world's most valuable company seems a little shaky, with the onslaught of negative news thus far. The company had to cut itsiPhone14 production output by -6.66%, back to its original plan of 90M handsets, similar to previous releases. On one hand, we expect some of those headwinds to be well balanced by the robust demand for its premium models, compensating for the lost volume with higher margins. On the other hand, it is apparent that the rising inflation, record high oil/gas prices, China's economic slump (one of AAPL's best markets), and geopolitical issues in the EU are impacting consumers' discretionary spending, with the global smartphone market expected to deflate by -6.5% in 2022 to 1.27B units instead.It remains to be seen if the Cupertino giant will suffer financially during this economic downturn, since the previous recession in 2008 had impacted AAPL's top and bottom lines growth to a certain extent. The company reported a notable YoY growth of 14.4% in revenues and 34.69% in net incomes for FY2009, compared to 52.5% and 75.07% in FY2009. The recessionary impacts were considerably mild then, since consumer discretionary spending remained relatively robust for the company.Nonetheless, we are already starting to see some stock weaknesses. AAPL has continuously failed to break its resistance level at the $180s and, consequently, lost -22.10% of its value from its peak levels in March and August 2022. The S&P 500 Index had also plunged by -24.10% YTD, indicating peak market pessimism and fear levels. During the previous recession, both stocks had tanked, with AAPL reporting a -52.21% plunge and the S&P 500 a -43.37% plunge between August and December 2008.However, all hope is not lost, since the September CPI released in early October may provide the potential catalyst for the stock market's recovery, due to the Fed's projected terminal rate of4.6% by 2023. This potentially indicates a 75 basis point hike in November, with January 2023 moderating with a 50 basis point hike. Therefore, we may speculatively assume that most of the pessimism is already baked in, barring an earnings miss ahead. We shall see.Mr. Market Is Still Hopeful About This Last FrontierS&P Capital IQFor FQ4'22, AAPL is expected to report revenues of $88.74B and operating margins of 27.4%, representing an increase of 6.96% though a moderation of 0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, an increase of 6.45% and a decline of -1.1 percentage points YoY, respectively, with the latter attributed to the rising costs. It remains to be seen if AAPL will be able to achieve its previous guidance of accelerated sales and gross margins between 41.5% to 42.5% for FQ4'22.In contrast, consensus estimates that AAPL will report net incomes of $20.37B and net income margins of 23% for the upcoming quarter, indicating certain headwinds to its profitability, with a minimal increase of 4.78% and a decline of -0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, a notable decline of -0.87% and -1.7 percentage points YoY, respectively. With an estimated EPS of $1.27 for FQ4'22, AAPL would be looking at a decent 5.83% QoQ and 2.07% YoY growth. It might just be enough to satisfy Mr. Market's highly pessimistic outlook, preserving its cult stock status ahead.S&P Capital IQNonetheless, Mr. Market is cautiously confident about AAPL's projected cash flow, with a Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation of $21.89B and an FCF margin of 24.6% in FQ4'22. It indicated a decent improvement of 5.29% and -0.5 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, massive YoY growth of 28.91% and 4.2 percentage points, respectively. AAPL's chances of success would be higher as well, assuming aggressive cost cuts across the board. We shall see, given the historical trend of elevated capital expenditures thus far, especially in FQ4s.S&P Capital IQOver the next four years, AAPL is expected to report revenue and net income growth at a CAGR of 5.19% and 2.98%, respectively. For now, Mr. Market remains somewhat positive, since these long-term projections and FY2022 estimates remain in line since our previous analysis in August, though slightly discounted by -2.9% since May 2022. Its upcoming earnings call will make or break AAPL's stock performance, as the EU enters its first winter without Russian gas and the Feds continue to fight against the rising inflation through 2023.In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on AAPL, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.Apple Vs. Meta: Battle Of The Mixed RealityAnAppleA Day Keeps The Portfolio Healthy (And Potentially, Recession At Bay)CanAppleBe The New Tesla - Smartphone On Wheels By 2025?So, Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?AAPL 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQAAPL is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 5.81x and NTM P/E of 22.92x, higher than its 5Y mean of 4.63x and 21.94x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $142.84, down -21.91% from its 52 weeks high of $182.94, though at a premium of 10.69% from its 52 weeks low of $129.04. With a consensus estimate price target of $188.22, it is apparent that there is still a notable 32.10% upside from current pricesAAPL & SPY 5Y/1Y Stock PriceS&P Capital IQBoth stocks also have had a relatively interesting co-existing relationship in their performance thus far, naturally, since AAPL accounts for 7.1% of the S&P 500 Index weighting. While APPL obviously had better returns thus far for the past 5Y at 289.6% and 10Y at 597.4%, the S&P 500 has also fared comparatively decent with 57.4% and 204.2%, respectively. These numbers are impressive, given that many other stocks have been decimated thus far.With the stocks trading below their 50 and 100-day moving averages, both look relatively attractive, considering the massive returns upon market recovery by Q1'23. Naturally, the market will always be full of pitfalls for anyone who tries to pitch the perfect timing, since there may still be some downsides from current levels. As a result, investors with higher risk tolerances may consider nibbling at these levels, fully understanding the great importance of AAPL through the next decade.Otherwise, conservative investors (like myself) will be waiting for more clarity from its upcoming earnings call, since the whole market seems to be heading for destruction one way or another. With little catalyst for short-term recovery, the AAPL stock will be testing the June lows of $130s over the next week or so. If that support level is breached, my oh my, we are in for a catastrophic rollercoaster ride indeed. Good luck all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912989669,"gmtCreate":1664748066351,"gmtModify":1676537499599,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912989669","repostId":"1157459217","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157459217","pubTimestamp":1664676789,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157459217?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-02 10:13","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: Attractive Valuation Despite Mid-Term Headwinds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157459217","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Over the mid term,Alibaba’s share price has had a habit of moving in step with earnings revisions but during the past 3 months, this relationship has weakened.During the period, Alibaba’s forecast for adj EPS in FY2024 has been cut by 4%, yet the share price has dropped by 34%.Moving forward, how can this be corrected?","content":"<div>\n<p>Over the mid term, Alibaba’s (BABA)share price has had a habit of moving in step with earnings revisions but during the past 3 months, this relationship has weakened.During the period, Alibaba’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/alibaba-stock-attractive-valuation-despite-mid-term-headwinds\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: Attractive Valuation Despite Mid-Term Headwinds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: Attractive Valuation Despite Mid-Term Headwinds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-02 10:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/alibaba-stock-attractive-valuation-despite-mid-term-headwinds><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Over the mid term, Alibaba’s (BABA)share price has had a habit of moving in step with earnings revisions but during the past 3 months, this relationship has weakened.During the period, Alibaba’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/alibaba-stock-attractive-valuation-despite-mid-term-headwinds\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/alibaba-stock-attractive-valuation-despite-mid-term-headwinds","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157459217","content_text":"Over the mid term, Alibaba’s (BABA)share price has had a habit of moving in step with earnings revisions but during the past 3 months, this relationship has weakened.During the period, Alibaba’s forecast for adj EPS in FY2024 has been cut by 4%, yet the share price has dropped by 34%.Moving forward, how can this be corrected? J.P. Morgan’sAlex Yao has an idea. The analyst believes “sentiment-driven fund flow is the current key share price driver and revenue recovery is the key determinant of market sentiment.”That is a bit of problem, then. Because Yao expects weak China consumption in the September quarter (F2Q23) to impact the revenue outlook.Since late August, Covid has once again been a disruptive force in a host of cities across China, and as such, Yao expects “limited improvement” in Alibaba’s core-core CMR (customer-management revenue) compared to the June quarter.The analyst sees the September quarter’s CMR falling by 4% from the same period last year, hardly any better than the June quarter’s 5% drop. On account of “low visibility of consumer sentiment improvement” or any relaxion of the Covid policies, the decline will continue in the December quarter, albeit at a slower pace (Yao expects a 2% year-over-year decline vs. anticipation of a positive turn previously).In contrast, given Alibaba’s firm commitment to cost-cutting and efficiency-improving measures, Yao sees “potential upside to consensus bottom-line projections.”However, that might not have enough of a positive effect right now. “Alibaba’s weakening revenue outlook in the near term could continue to weigh on the share price despite an unchanged, or even potentially better, profit outlook,” the analyst said, before summing up, “Nonetheless, we believe Alibaba’s share price is attractive on a 12-month view on 1) profit growth recovery to 20%+ in FY2024, 2) current consensus FY2024 PE of only 9x.”To this end, Yao rates BABA shares an Overweight (i.e., Buy) along with a $135 price target. This figure leaves room for 12-month share appreciation of ~69%. Yao’s rating stays an Overweight (i.e., Buy).Overall, Wall Street takes a bullish stance on Alibaba shares. 17 Buys and 1 Sell issued over the previous three months, making the stock a Strong Buy. Meanwhile, the $149.06 average price target suggests ~86% upside from current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916496224,"gmtCreate":1664666174868,"gmtModify":1676537489389,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916496224","repostId":"1143382766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143382766","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664621339,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143382766?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-01 18:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Delivered 8,468 Smart EVs in September; G9 Flagship SUV Deliveries Started in September","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143382766","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"XPeng today announced its vehicle delivery results for September 2022 and the third quarter 2022.XPe","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>XPeng today announced its vehicle delivery results for September 2022 and the third quarter 2022.</p><p>XPeng recorded monthly deliveries in September of 8,468 Smart EVs, consisting of 4,643 P7s, the Company’s smart sports sedan, 2,417 P5 smart family sedans and 1,233 G3i smart compact SUVs.</p><p>September deliveries also included 184 G9 Flagship SUVs, the Company’s fourth production model launched on September 21. G9 mass deliveries are on schedule to begin in late October.</p><p>Total deliveries in the third quarter 2022 reached 29,570, representing a 15% increase year-over-year. As of September 30, 2022, year-to-date deliveries were 98,553, representing a 75% increase year-over-year and surpassing total deliveries in 2021.</p><p>In September, the Company reached a key milestone in its proprietary technology by rolling out City NGP (Navigation Guided Pilot), China’s most advanced ADAS for urban driving, in a Guangzhou-based pilot program. It also launched the first batch of 480 kW S4 supercharging stations in five Chinese cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Wuhan.XPeng is rapidly expanding its nationwide fast charging network and aims to bring over 50 S4 supercharging stations into operation by the end of this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Delivered 8,468 Smart EVs in September; G9 Flagship SUV Deliveries Started in September</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Delivered 8,468 Smart EVs in September; G9 Flagship SUV Deliveries Started in September\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-01 18:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>XPeng today announced its vehicle delivery results for September 2022 and the third quarter 2022.</p><p>XPeng recorded monthly deliveries in September of 8,468 Smart EVs, consisting of 4,643 P7s, the Company’s smart sports sedan, 2,417 P5 smart family sedans and 1,233 G3i smart compact SUVs.</p><p>September deliveries also included 184 G9 Flagship SUVs, the Company’s fourth production model launched on September 21. G9 mass deliveries are on schedule to begin in late October.</p><p>Total deliveries in the third quarter 2022 reached 29,570, representing a 15% increase year-over-year. As of September 30, 2022, year-to-date deliveries were 98,553, representing a 75% increase year-over-year and surpassing total deliveries in 2021.</p><p>In September, the Company reached a key milestone in its proprietary technology by rolling out City NGP (Navigation Guided Pilot), China’s most advanced ADAS for urban driving, in a Guangzhou-based pilot program. It also launched the first batch of 480 kW S4 supercharging stations in five Chinese cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Wuhan.XPeng is rapidly expanding its nationwide fast charging network and aims to bring over 50 S4 supercharging stations into operation by the end of this year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143382766","content_text":"XPeng today announced its vehicle delivery results for September 2022 and the third quarter 2022.XPeng recorded monthly deliveries in September of 8,468 Smart EVs, consisting of 4,643 P7s, the Company’s smart sports sedan, 2,417 P5 smart family sedans and 1,233 G3i smart compact SUVs.September deliveries also included 184 G9 Flagship SUVs, the Company’s fourth production model launched on September 21. G9 mass deliveries are on schedule to begin in late October.Total deliveries in the third quarter 2022 reached 29,570, representing a 15% increase year-over-year. As of September 30, 2022, year-to-date deliveries were 98,553, representing a 75% increase year-over-year and surpassing total deliveries in 2021.In September, the Company reached a key milestone in its proprietary technology by rolling out City NGP (Navigation Guided Pilot), China’s most advanced ADAS for urban driving, in a Guangzhou-based pilot program. It also launched the first batch of 480 kW S4 supercharging stations in five Chinese cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Wuhan.XPeng is rapidly expanding its nationwide fast charging network and aims to bring over 50 S4 supercharging stations into operation by the end of this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916081718,"gmtCreate":1664489123934,"gmtModify":1676537462483,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916081718","repostId":"1152954810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152954810","pubTimestamp":1664466614,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152954810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 23:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Officials Reinforce Rate-Hike Calls, Say Markets Got Message","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152954810","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Bullard says markets have ‘digested’ message on rate hikesMester says rates are ‘still not even in r","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Bullard says markets have ‘digested’ message on rate hikes</li><li>Mester says rates are ‘still not even in restricted territory’</li></ul><p>Federal Reserve officials reiterated Thursday that they will keep raising interest rates to restrain high inflation, and that markets are now understanding the message.</p><p>“If you look at the dots, it does look like the committee is expecting a fair amount of additional moves this year,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told a virtual emerging-market forum, referring to the bank’s so-called dot plot of projections. “I think that that was digested by markets and does seem to be the right interpretation.”</p><p>Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester repeated that officials are resolute in their quest to increase rates to a level seen as restrictive.</p><p>“Real interest rates -- judged by the expectations over the next year of inflation -- have to be in positive territory and held there for a time,” she said earlier in an interview on CNBC. “We’re still not even in restricted territory on the funds rate.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/972431d8bf1881bb5d4349f65cfcd300\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Fed officials raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Sept. 21 for the third straight meeting, bringing the target for the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25%.</p><p>Their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, or dot plot, shows a median forecast of rates reaching 4.4% by the end of this year, implying a further 1.25 percentage points of tightening over their remaining two meetings in November and December.</p><p>Mester said her forecast is probably a bit above the median path because she sees inflation being persistent, based on her conversations with businesses, community development groups and other sources.</p><p>“In my SEP I have inflation coming down, but we have to bring interest rates up to get that downward shift in inflation,” she said, adding that the US economy has so far been able to handle the higher interest rates.</p><h3>UK Turmoil</h3><p>She drew a distinction between US markets and what is happening in the UK, where the Bank of England announced Wednesday that it would launch unlimited bond buying to address market dysfunction. When the Fed announced its bond purchases in the early months of the pandemic, it did so at a time when it was also lowering rates to support the economy, she said.</p><p>The BOE faces some communication issues because it is lifting rates but needed to purchase assets, which is typically viewed as a method for easing monetary policy, in order to support financial stability, Mester said.</p><p>“It’s a challenging situation for them,” Mester said. “For financial stability reasons and for market functioning reasons they had to go in and buy bonds.”</p><p>“Market functioning is incredibly important because you won’t be able to hit any monetary policy goals if the markets aren’t functioning,” she said. “That’s different than worrying about volatility in the markets.” Mester said that so far, there had been no sign of dysfunction in US financial markets.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Officials Reinforce Rate-Hike Calls, Say Markets Got Message</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Officials Reinforce Rate-Hike Calls, Say Markets Got Message\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-29 23:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/fed-s-bullard-says-markets-have-gotten-the-message-on-rate-hikes><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bullard says markets have ‘digested’ message on rate hikesMester says rates are ‘still not even in restricted territory’Federal Reserve officials reiterated Thursday that they will keep raising ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/fed-s-bullard-says-markets-have-gotten-the-message-on-rate-hikes\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/fed-s-bullard-says-markets-have-gotten-the-message-on-rate-hikes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152954810","content_text":"Bullard says markets have ‘digested’ message on rate hikesMester says rates are ‘still not even in restricted territory’Federal Reserve officials reiterated Thursday that they will keep raising interest rates to restrain high inflation, and that markets are now understanding the message.“If you look at the dots, it does look like the committee is expecting a fair amount of additional moves this year,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told a virtual emerging-market forum, referring to the bank’s so-called dot plot of projections. “I think that that was digested by markets and does seem to be the right interpretation.”Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester repeated that officials are resolute in their quest to increase rates to a level seen as restrictive.“Real interest rates -- judged by the expectations over the next year of inflation -- have to be in positive territory and held there for a time,” she said earlier in an interview on CNBC. “We’re still not even in restricted territory on the funds rate.”Fed officials raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Sept. 21 for the third straight meeting, bringing the target for the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25%.Their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, or dot plot, shows a median forecast of rates reaching 4.4% by the end of this year, implying a further 1.25 percentage points of tightening over their remaining two meetings in November and December.Mester said her forecast is probably a bit above the median path because she sees inflation being persistent, based on her conversations with businesses, community development groups and other sources.“In my SEP I have inflation coming down, but we have to bring interest rates up to get that downward shift in inflation,” she said, adding that the US economy has so far been able to handle the higher interest rates.UK TurmoilShe drew a distinction between US markets and what is happening in the UK, where the Bank of England announced Wednesday that it would launch unlimited bond buying to address market dysfunction. When the Fed announced its bond purchases in the early months of the pandemic, it did so at a time when it was also lowering rates to support the economy, she said.The BOE faces some communication issues because it is lifting rates but needed to purchase assets, which is typically viewed as a method for easing monetary policy, in order to support financial stability, Mester said.“It’s a challenging situation for them,” Mester said. “For financial stability reasons and for market functioning reasons they had to go in and buy bonds.”“Market functioning is incredibly important because you won’t be able to hit any monetary policy goals if the markets aren’t functioning,” she said. “That’s different than worrying about volatility in the markets.” Mester said that so far, there had been no sign of dysfunction in US financial markets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918672981,"gmtCreate":1664402477644,"gmtModify":1676537445612,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918672981","repostId":"1102244542","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102244542","pubTimestamp":1664378284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102244542?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-28 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: A Bearish Sign For The First Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102244542","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple has been a solid company with solid fundamentals for the better part of the past 20 yea","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Apple has been a solid company with solid fundamentals for the better part of the past 20 years, but there&#39;s a recent sign that has me worried.</li><li>With the lack of new or innovative technologies, it can become a problem for the tech behemoth in the coming years.</li><li>As a result, I shift my bullish stance to a neutral to a slightly bearish one.</li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> has been one of the best and most solid investments for the better part of the past 20 years. As it released the iPhone in 2007, it began raking in amounts of money most other companies can only dream of and now they bring in billions from things like their Services segments, which is larger than some other companies bring in altogether.</p><p>But this past year there&#39;s been a warning sign I was looking out for a long time - as they shed their cash reserves for share buybacks and other compensation, they&#39;re losing their edge in the amount of investment and interest income they generate and now, for the very first time, they are paying more in interest expense than they&#39;re bringing in.</p><p>This in and of itself isn&#39;t all that bad considering they rake in about $100 billion in net income while paying just shy of $3 billion annually in interest expense. But with the lack of new innovative products, they&#39;ve been relying more on telecom companies&#39; incentive to sell their new iPhone than organic excitement.</p><p>Let&#39;s dive into the issues I see.</p><h3>Debt Load &amp; Interest Expense</h3><p>Beginning in 2013, the company started taking on long-term and short-term debt while interest rates were near zero to finance their operations while conserving cash overseas and investing it to bring in interest, which more than covered the interest expense on the low-interest debt. Since then, the debt has ballooned from about $16 billion to just shy of $110 billion, which was down to about $95 billion as of their latest financial reporting.</p><p>But then the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates and the company began paying more in interest expense. After the repatriation holiday in 2017, Apple brought back a big amount of their overseas cash which was being invested and spent the vast majority of it for share buybacks and other shareholder-friendly activities, which lowered their interest income.</p><p>Even though, as I mentioned earlier, the company has reduced their debt from $110 billion to $95 billion, their interest expense for the same time period increased from $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion. Although these numbers pale in comparison to their income and revenue generation, it&#39;s somewhat concerning in the long run given where interest rates are headed and the lower cash reserves the company has.</p><h3>Cash, Investments and Interest Income</h3><p>The company&#39;s cash and equivalents and short-term investments have been rising for the longest time as the company accumulated cash, but over the past few years, the company announced that it intended at getting to a cash-neutral position and spending it to fund share buybacks and other shareholder-friendly activities.</p><p>Apple had more than $100 billion in cash and short-term investment in September 2017, which decreased to under $50 billion as of today.</p><p>The more interesting part of this is the company&#39;s investments have been shrinking after the repatriation holiday back in 2017 allowed companies to bring back cash at record low tax rates, which were mostly used for share buybacks.</p><p>Apple had almost $200 billion of long-term investments in September 2017, which then slowly went down and hovers around $100 billion.</p><h3>The Result: All About The Interest Rates</h3><p>This resulted in the company&#39;s interest income to fall as their interest expense is expected to continue and climb:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9209feae93f89b97d8170d6ae749a21d\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>During the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rates went back to zero due to control measures by the Federal Reserve. But now, interest rates are expected to climb to records as the Federal Reserve tries to stem inflation. This means, I believe, that as the company&#39;s debt load has been increasing, they will be paying a big chunk more in expenses this year relative to last.</p><p>In the most recent reporting quarter, the company saw an 8.12% increase in interest expense relative to the same period last year as a result of the federal funds rate increasing from 0% to 0.75% in 2 stages throughout their reporting time period.</p><p>Given the fact that the federal funds rate has increased to 3% since then, I expect the company&#39;s interest expense to be higher by about 35% relative to last year, leading them to potentially pay over $3.5 billion for fiscal 2022.</p><p>On the face of it, this isn&#39;t all that bad, considering the fact that the company made about $100 billion last year in net income. But then there&#39;s the whole sales growth thing, which has me slightly more concerned than last time.</p><h3>Sales Growth To Underperform</h3><p>There are a few factors that make it hard for me to see Apple meeting the current sales growth projections.</p><p>The first is that they&#39;re way too reliant on telecom companies. These offer a free iPhone with a trade-in and some plan commitments, which is one of the major incentives that folks use in order to upgrade since the new iPhone has little improvement over the one before it, which was little improved over the one before it and so on.</p><p>While there&#39;s little to make me believe that telecom companies will stop this incentive altogether, I do think that there&#39;s a limit to the amount of cycles they&#39;ll do this as they shift to focus on customer retention and not only customer transfers or initiation. We&#39;ve seen this with other incentives - they take place for a business cycle or two and then shift to offering other services in place. If, and it&#39;s a big if, the iPhone 15 is to the iPhone 14 as the iPhone 14 is to the iPhone 13, I don&#39;t think the reception will be as good without these incentives to give Apple millions and millions of sales.</p><p>This is somewhat confirmed by the reception the phone had in China. New iPhone sales had a lukewarm reception in the company&#39;s second-largest market, where it&#39;s relying on for future sales growth, which doesn&#39;t have as many free upgrade offers. This is a result of individuals not wanting to spend all that money to upgrade for the sake of upgrading as there&#39;s little improvement outside the camera, which is already pro-level quality.</p><p>With these 2 main factors, I just don&#39;t see the company generating any meaningful revenues for the next 2-3 years. The added fact that they&#39;re spending more and more on research &amp; development each year with little to show for it (so far) is added to this underperformance projection by me.</p><h3>By The Numbers: Sales &amp; EPS</h3><p>The aforementioned factors lead me to believe that the company will likely underperform their current sales and EPS projections, which leads to them being fairly to slightly overvalued. This on its own means that the company may constitute a poor investment choice, but especially since we may be heading into a recession - the company&#39;s shares can underperform the broader market during that time period, which can be bad for investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea69a11622481942c2d350d262e0d8ec\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>With these figures not yet accounting for the already-lackluster reception in China of the new iPhone, I believe that and the aforementioned overall future underperformance means that the company will be seeing a sub-3% average annual growth rate throughout the 2025 time period.</p><p>Given my earlier points about,</p><p>1 - Increased sales through telecom companies&#39; incentives means lower gross margins.</p><p>2 - Increased interest expense, lower interest income, SG&amp;A expenses and R&amp;D expenses means that the profit margin will be lower than in previous years.</p><p>3 - Lower than projected sales growth on the higher margin iPhones means margins will be lower.</p><p>I believe that the company&#39;s EPS growth rate will be lower than sales growth rate. Here are the current projections for reference:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68dcaf536e8ffc6aff7dc94c35e43c21\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Comparing these EPS figures to the growth in sales and slightly overall lower margins means that, I believe, the company is likely to report low single-digit EPS growth over the coming time period through 2025 and is likely to report, if all else remains the same, a negative EPS growth rate in 2025.</p><h3>Conclusion - Avoiding</h3><p>The company, based on the aforementioned EPS projections, is trading at a forward price to earnings multiple of between 21x to 25x over the time period. This is overvaluing the company if their true growth rate is around the 2% to 3% mark through 2025, in my opinion.</p><p>This means that the company is likely slightly overvalued at current levels, and we shouldn&#39;t expect them to make any material gains in share price over the next 2-3 years. Since I believe this will be the case, I am shifting my bullish long-term stance on the company to a neutral one and have been shedding shares over the past few days and will continue to do so throughout the coming weeks.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: A Bearish Sign For The First Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: A Bearish Sign For The First Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-28 23:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543468-apple-for-the-first-time-a-bearish-sign><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple has been a solid company with solid fundamentals for the better part of the past 20 years, but there's a recent sign that has me worried.With the lack of new or innovative technologies, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543468-apple-for-the-first-time-a-bearish-sign\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543468-apple-for-the-first-time-a-bearish-sign","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102244542","content_text":"SummaryApple has been a solid company with solid fundamentals for the better part of the past 20 years, but there's a recent sign that has me worried.With the lack of new or innovative technologies, it can become a problem for the tech behemoth in the coming years.As a result, I shift my bullish stance to a neutral to a slightly bearish one.Apple has been one of the best and most solid investments for the better part of the past 20 years. As it released the iPhone in 2007, it began raking in amounts of money most other companies can only dream of and now they bring in billions from things like their Services segments, which is larger than some other companies bring in altogether.But this past year there's been a warning sign I was looking out for a long time - as they shed their cash reserves for share buybacks and other compensation, they're losing their edge in the amount of investment and interest income they generate and now, for the very first time, they are paying more in interest expense than they're bringing in.This in and of itself isn't all that bad considering they rake in about $100 billion in net income while paying just shy of $3 billion annually in interest expense. But with the lack of new innovative products, they've been relying more on telecom companies' incentive to sell their new iPhone than organic excitement.Let's dive into the issues I see.Debt Load & Interest ExpenseBeginning in 2013, the company started taking on long-term and short-term debt while interest rates were near zero to finance their operations while conserving cash overseas and investing it to bring in interest, which more than covered the interest expense on the low-interest debt. Since then, the debt has ballooned from about $16 billion to just shy of $110 billion, which was down to about $95 billion as of their latest financial reporting.But then the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates and the company began paying more in interest expense. After the repatriation holiday in 2017, Apple brought back a big amount of their overseas cash which was being invested and spent the vast majority of it for share buybacks and other shareholder-friendly activities, which lowered their interest income.Even though, as I mentioned earlier, the company has reduced their debt from $110 billion to $95 billion, their interest expense for the same time period increased from $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion. Although these numbers pale in comparison to their income and revenue generation, it's somewhat concerning in the long run given where interest rates are headed and the lower cash reserves the company has.Cash, Investments and Interest IncomeThe company's cash and equivalents and short-term investments have been rising for the longest time as the company accumulated cash, but over the past few years, the company announced that it intended at getting to a cash-neutral position and spending it to fund share buybacks and other shareholder-friendly activities.Apple had more than $100 billion in cash and short-term investment in September 2017, which decreased to under $50 billion as of today.The more interesting part of this is the company's investments have been shrinking after the repatriation holiday back in 2017 allowed companies to bring back cash at record low tax rates, which were mostly used for share buybacks.Apple had almost $200 billion of long-term investments in September 2017, which then slowly went down and hovers around $100 billion.The Result: All About The Interest RatesThis resulted in the company's interest income to fall as their interest expense is expected to continue and climb:During the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rates went back to zero due to control measures by the Federal Reserve. But now, interest rates are expected to climb to records as the Federal Reserve tries to stem inflation. This means, I believe, that as the company's debt load has been increasing, they will be paying a big chunk more in expenses this year relative to last.In the most recent reporting quarter, the company saw an 8.12% increase in interest expense relative to the same period last year as a result of the federal funds rate increasing from 0% to 0.75% in 2 stages throughout their reporting time period.Given the fact that the federal funds rate has increased to 3% since then, I expect the company's interest expense to be higher by about 35% relative to last year, leading them to potentially pay over $3.5 billion for fiscal 2022.On the face of it, this isn't all that bad, considering the fact that the company made about $100 billion last year in net income. But then there's the whole sales growth thing, which has me slightly more concerned than last time.Sales Growth To UnderperformThere are a few factors that make it hard for me to see Apple meeting the current sales growth projections.The first is that they're way too reliant on telecom companies. These offer a free iPhone with a trade-in and some plan commitments, which is one of the major incentives that folks use in order to upgrade since the new iPhone has little improvement over the one before it, which was little improved over the one before it and so on.While there's little to make me believe that telecom companies will stop this incentive altogether, I do think that there's a limit to the amount of cycles they'll do this as they shift to focus on customer retention and not only customer transfers or initiation. We've seen this with other incentives - they take place for a business cycle or two and then shift to offering other services in place. If, and it's a big if, the iPhone 15 is to the iPhone 14 as the iPhone 14 is to the iPhone 13, I don't think the reception will be as good without these incentives to give Apple millions and millions of sales.This is somewhat confirmed by the reception the phone had in China. New iPhone sales had a lukewarm reception in the company's second-largest market, where it's relying on for future sales growth, which doesn't have as many free upgrade offers. This is a result of individuals not wanting to spend all that money to upgrade for the sake of upgrading as there's little improvement outside the camera, which is already pro-level quality.With these 2 main factors, I just don't see the company generating any meaningful revenues for the next 2-3 years. The added fact that they're spending more and more on research & development each year with little to show for it (so far) is added to this underperformance projection by me.By The Numbers: Sales & EPSThe aforementioned factors lead me to believe that the company will likely underperform their current sales and EPS projections, which leads to them being fairly to slightly overvalued. This on its own means that the company may constitute a poor investment choice, but especially since we may be heading into a recession - the company's shares can underperform the broader market during that time period, which can be bad for investors.With these figures not yet accounting for the already-lackluster reception in China of the new iPhone, I believe that and the aforementioned overall future underperformance means that the company will be seeing a sub-3% average annual growth rate throughout the 2025 time period.Given my earlier points about,1 - Increased sales through telecom companies' incentives means lower gross margins.2 - Increased interest expense, lower interest income, SG&A expenses and R&D expenses means that the profit margin will be lower than in previous years.3 - Lower than projected sales growth on the higher margin iPhones means margins will be lower.I believe that the company's EPS growth rate will be lower than sales growth rate. Here are the current projections for reference:Comparing these EPS figures to the growth in sales and slightly overall lower margins means that, I believe, the company is likely to report low single-digit EPS growth over the coming time period through 2025 and is likely to report, if all else remains the same, a negative EPS growth rate in 2025.Conclusion - AvoidingThe company, based on the aforementioned EPS projections, is trading at a forward price to earnings multiple of between 21x to 25x over the time period. This is overvaluing the company if their true growth rate is around the 2% to 3% mark through 2025, in my opinion.This means that the company is likely slightly overvalued at current levels, and we shouldn't expect them to make any material gains in share price over the next 2-3 years. Since I believe this will be the case, I am shifting my bullish long-term stance on the company to a neutral one and have been shedding shares over the past few days and will continue to do so throughout the coming weeks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918983197,"gmtCreate":1664316169420,"gmtModify":1676537429121,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918983197","repostId":"1123978281","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123978281","pubTimestamp":1664291602,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123978281?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-27 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Does the Street Consider Apple Stock to be a “Strong Buy”?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123978281","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsWhile Apple, like other tech stocks, is under pressure due to rising interest rates ","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsWhile Apple, like other tech stocks, is under pressure due to rising interest rates and an impending recession, Wall Street analysts continue to be bullish on the long-term prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/why-does-the-street-consider-apple-stock-nasdaqaapl-to-be-a-strong-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Does the Street Consider Apple Stock to be a “Strong Buy”?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Does the Street Consider Apple Stock to be a “Strong Buy”?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-27 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/why-does-the-street-consider-apple-stock-nasdaqaapl-to-be-a-strong-buy><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsWhile Apple, like other tech stocks, is under pressure due to rising interest rates and an impending recession, Wall Street analysts continue to be bullish on the long-term prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/why-does-the-street-consider-apple-stock-nasdaqaapl-to-be-a-strong-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/why-does-the-street-consider-apple-stock-nasdaqaapl-to-be-a-strong-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123978281","content_text":"Story HighlightsWhile Apple, like other tech stocks, is under pressure due to rising interest rates and an impending recession, Wall Street analysts continue to be bullish on the long-term prospects of the iPhone maker.Investors are bracing for more trouble as the aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to tame inflation are expected to push the U.S. economy into recession. The S&P 500  (SPX) and NASDAQ 100 (NDX) have declined 23.3% and over 31% year-to-date, respectively. While many tech stocks have been clobbered this year, Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock has shown some amount of resilience and is down 15% year-to-date. Most Wall Street analysts remain bullish about the tech giant based on its strong track record, continued innovation, and progress into new growth areas like fintech.Apple is Well-Positioned for Long-Term GrowthApple’s Q3 Fiscal 2022 (ended June 30, 2022) revenue increased 1.9% to nearly $83 billion, but earnings per share fell 8% to $1.20. That said, the company managed to top analysts’ expectations for both key metrics.While Apple cautioned investors about near-term pressures, including currency headwinds and supply chain woes, it expects revenue growth to accelerate in the September quarter compared to the June quarter.Meanwhile, Apple is diversifying its manufacturing footprint amid production disruptions in China. Apple recently announced that it would be manufacturing the iPhone 14 in India. The company has been manufacturing old models of iPhones in India but this time it is going ahead with the production of a newly launched device. The move is expected to boost Apple’s prospects in a lucrative market like India.Additionally, Apple continues to deepen customer engagement with its services business, which includes sales from Applecare, advertising, cloud, payment, and other services. Note that the company’s services business is more profitable than its products segment. The company has been advancing in the attractive financial services market through solutions like Apple Pay and Apple Wallet.Back in June, Apple announced that it will launch a buy now, pay later service called Apple Pay Later. The facility will allow customers to split their purchase into four equal payments that can be spread over six weeks. Earlier this year, Apple rolled out its Tap to Pay on iPhone feature that enables contactless payments.Is Apple a Buy or Sell Now?In a recent research note to investors, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives noted that the iPhone 14 is likely witnessing “brisk sales” as wait times are getting longer. The analyst stated, “Wait times on many iPhone Pro 14 models are now 4-6 weeks for Apple customers and lengthening into November.” Ives stated that the overall demand for Pro is 8% to 10% ahead of his expectations.The analyst also sees strong sales in China, mainly via e-commerce channels. He expects China’s business to be a vital factor in Apple’s growth story and estimates that nearly 30% of iPhone customers in China “are in the window of an upgrade opportunity.”Despite macro pressures, Ives believes that Apple’s growth story “remains a bright spot in the tech landscape with darker clouds abound in many pockets of consumer tech.” Ives reiterated a Buy rating on AAPL stock with a price target of $220.All in all, Apple scores the Street’s Strong Buy consensus rating based on 23 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell rating. The average Apple price target of $183.45 suggests nearly 22% upside potential from current levels.ConclusionDespite macro pressures, Apple seems to be an attractive pick for the long haul based on strengths like continued innovation, solid growth potential for the services business, and strong execution.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911254950,"gmtCreate":1664230481570,"gmtModify":1676537412020,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911254950","repostId":"2270287582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270287582","pubTimestamp":1664205506,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270287582?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Market Sell-Off: 2 Safe Tech Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270287582","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The tech sector's downturn offers investors an opportunity to pick up shares of Apple and Microsoft at a discount.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks, broadly speaking, have been hammered in 2022. At this point, only two <b>S&amp;P 500</b> sectors are trading in the green year to date: energy and utilities. But the big gains for many energy sector players are unlikely to persist in the long run because of the ongoing shift away from fossil fuels, and utility stocks are considered defensive -- they don&#39;t typically generate the high growth returns many investors are looking for.</p><p>Those types of gains can often be found in the technology sector, but only a handful of companies in that group can be considered safe at times like this -- among them, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>. They may not be immune to stock market turmoil, but they have time-tested business models with decades worth of success under their belts. That means when the economy bounces back, these companies will probably be among the first to recover to new highs. Not only might they help investors weather the present volatility, these two stocks also look like solid long-term bets for any portfolio.</p><h2>1. Microsoft serves both consumers and businesses</h2><p>Most people know Microsoft for its Windows operating system for computers and its Office 365 digital document suite. After all, billions of people worldwide use those products in both personal and business settings. But the company has expanded far beyond its roots and into areas its early backers probably never expected, amassing a $1.7 trillion market valuation in the process.</p><p>Having diverse revenue streams is extremely beneficial for a company during an economic downturn. At the moment, consumers are tightening their belts on discretionary spending due to high inflation and rising interest rates, so Microsoft is experiencing softer demand for hardware like its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles. But its intelligent cloud segment is picking up the slack in a big way, and it now contributes the largest share of the company&#39;s revenue.</p><p>It&#39;s driven by the Azure platform, which helps businesses operate in the cloud. It offers solutions like data storage, virtual machines, and even cybersecurity. With more of the corporate world adopting this technology, the cloud is on track to become a $1.5 trillion annual opportunity as soon as 2030, according to one estimate by Grand View Research.</p><p>In Microsoft&#39;s fiscal 2022 (which ended June 30), Azure&#39;s revenue grew by an estimated 45% (based on a calculated average of reported quarterly growth reports because Microsoft doesn&#39;t release Azure&#39;s actual revenue) while the rest of its business expanded by just 18%.</p><p>But still, even though Azure is helping Microsoft weather the current unsteady economic conditions, growth from its other segments will likely kick into gear once interest rates level off. For that reason, it&#39;s important to zoom out and focus on the big picture because, as the below chart suggests, Microsoft has been a fantastic long-term investment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b273016c9cf0c5f1607f1ce7a4af0d6d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With Microsoft stock currently down 30.6% from its all-time high, this might be a great chance to buy ahead of its next potential wave of growth.</p><h2>2. Apple continues to innovate and diversify</h2><p>Apple is the largest public company in the world with a valuation of $2.4 trillion, and it just launched its latest smartphone, the iPhone 14. As exciting as that is, it does highlight one of the company&#39;s (minor) weak spots. As a manufacturer of premium-priced consumer electronics, Apple is very exposed to the health of the economy. But it has been diversifying its revenue base over the last few years by offering a portfolio of services, and that segment of its business is carrying the company&#39;s growth at the moment.</p><p>Those services include Apple Pay, Apple TV+, Apple News, and Apple Music, to name just a few on an expanding list. The key benefit for investors is that the services segment delivers a gross profit margin of 71% compared to 52% for Apple&#39;s hardware products. Put simply, it&#39;s more profitable to deliver subscription-based services to customers than it is to sell them devices, and recurring revenue makes it easier to build scale.</p><p>In the company&#39;s fiscal 2022 third quarter (which ended June 25), its services segment accounted for 23.6% of the company&#39;s $82.9 billion in total revenue. During the prior-year period, it accounted for 21.4%, so it&#39;s gradually becoming a larger part of the overall business. In fiscal Q3, services grew by 12% compared to a 1% contraction in hardware revenue.</p><p>That said, the release of products like the iPhone 14 and the new, rugged Apple Watch Ultra will likely boost sales into the Christmas season. Both devices come with new feature sets. Of particular note, Apple did a major internal redesign on the iPhone 14 that made it easier for technicians outside the Apple ecosystem to repair them, a cost-saving option that could give the devices even greater appeal to consumers.</p><p>With Apple stock down 17.4% from its all-time high, this could be the chance some investors have been waiting for to buy shares at a discount.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Market Sell-Off: 2 Safe Tech Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Market Sell-Off: 2 Safe Tech Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-26 23:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/26/stock-market-sell-off-2-safe-stocks-buy-now-foreve/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks, broadly speaking, have been hammered in 2022. At this point, only two S&P 500 sectors are trading in the green year to date: energy and utilities. But the big gains for many energy sector ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/26/stock-market-sell-off-2-safe-stocks-buy-now-foreve/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/26/stock-market-sell-off-2-safe-stocks-buy-now-foreve/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270287582","content_text":"Stocks, broadly speaking, have been hammered in 2022. At this point, only two S&P 500 sectors are trading in the green year to date: energy and utilities. But the big gains for many energy sector players are unlikely to persist in the long run because of the ongoing shift away from fossil fuels, and utility stocks are considered defensive -- they don't typically generate the high growth returns many investors are looking for.Those types of gains can often be found in the technology sector, but only a handful of companies in that group can be considered safe at times like this -- among them, Microsoft  and Apple. They may not be immune to stock market turmoil, but they have time-tested business models with decades worth of success under their belts. That means when the economy bounces back, these companies will probably be among the first to recover to new highs. Not only might they help investors weather the present volatility, these two stocks also look like solid long-term bets for any portfolio.1. Microsoft serves both consumers and businessesMost people know Microsoft for its Windows operating system for computers and its Office 365 digital document suite. After all, billions of people worldwide use those products in both personal and business settings. But the company has expanded far beyond its roots and into areas its early backers probably never expected, amassing a $1.7 trillion market valuation in the process.Having diverse revenue streams is extremely beneficial for a company during an economic downturn. At the moment, consumers are tightening their belts on discretionary spending due to high inflation and rising interest rates, so Microsoft is experiencing softer demand for hardware like its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles. But its intelligent cloud segment is picking up the slack in a big way, and it now contributes the largest share of the company's revenue.It's driven by the Azure platform, which helps businesses operate in the cloud. It offers solutions like data storage, virtual machines, and even cybersecurity. With more of the corporate world adopting this technology, the cloud is on track to become a $1.5 trillion annual opportunity as soon as 2030, according to one estimate by Grand View Research.In Microsoft's fiscal 2022 (which ended June 30), Azure's revenue grew by an estimated 45% (based on a calculated average of reported quarterly growth reports because Microsoft doesn't release Azure's actual revenue) while the rest of its business expanded by just 18%.But still, even though Azure is helping Microsoft weather the current unsteady economic conditions, growth from its other segments will likely kick into gear once interest rates level off. For that reason, it's important to zoom out and focus on the big picture because, as the below chart suggests, Microsoft has been a fantastic long-term investment.With Microsoft stock currently down 30.6% from its all-time high, this might be a great chance to buy ahead of its next potential wave of growth.2. Apple continues to innovate and diversifyApple is the largest public company in the world with a valuation of $2.4 trillion, and it just launched its latest smartphone, the iPhone 14. As exciting as that is, it does highlight one of the company's (minor) weak spots. As a manufacturer of premium-priced consumer electronics, Apple is very exposed to the health of the economy. But it has been diversifying its revenue base over the last few years by offering a portfolio of services, and that segment of its business is carrying the company's growth at the moment.Those services include Apple Pay, Apple TV+, Apple News, and Apple Music, to name just a few on an expanding list. The key benefit for investors is that the services segment delivers a gross profit margin of 71% compared to 52% for Apple's hardware products. Put simply, it's more profitable to deliver subscription-based services to customers than it is to sell them devices, and recurring revenue makes it easier to build scale.In the company's fiscal 2022 third quarter (which ended June 25), its services segment accounted for 23.6% of the company's $82.9 billion in total revenue. During the prior-year period, it accounted for 21.4%, so it's gradually becoming a larger part of the overall business. In fiscal Q3, services grew by 12% compared to a 1% contraction in hardware revenue.That said, the release of products like the iPhone 14 and the new, rugged Apple Watch Ultra will likely boost sales into the Christmas season. Both devices come with new feature sets. Of particular note, Apple did a major internal redesign on the iPhone 14 that made it easier for technicians outside the Apple ecosystem to repair them, a cost-saving option that could give the devices even greater appeal to consumers.With Apple stock down 17.4% from its all-time high, this could be the chance some investors have been waiting for to buy shares at a discount.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911396365,"gmtCreate":1664145017957,"gmtModify":1676537394645,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911396365","repostId":"2269490734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269490734","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1664066508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269490734?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 08:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269490734","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-25 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269490734","content_text":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market's decline this past week following the Federal Reserve's most recent interest-rate hike announcement.To show why higher interest rates aren't necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model's track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market's subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University's finance professor Robert Shiller.In other words, the ability to predict the stock market's five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.Money illusionThese results are so surprising that it's important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years' corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it's only half the story.The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as \"inflation illusion\" -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.According to research conducted by Warr, inflation's impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed's latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.None of this means that the bear market shouldn't continue, or that equities aren't overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913416230,"gmtCreate":1664056864820,"gmtModify":1676537382731,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913416230","repostId":"1137021764","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137021764","pubTimestamp":1663982759,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137021764?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-24 09:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Top 5 Stocks Cathie Wood Is Buying This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137021764","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Cathie Wood has handed the reins for two of her ETFs to Ark Invest veteran Will Scherer.This week, s","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Cathie Wood has handed the reins for two of her ETFs to Ark Invest veteran Will Scherer.</li><li>This week, she purchased shares in companies like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSP\">TuSimple</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLD\">Velo3D</a>.</li><li>Shares of the ARKK Innovation ETF(ARKK) are down by over 55% year-to-date.</li></ul><p>Exchange-traded fund (ETF) manager Cathie Wood made headlines this week after she announced that she would cede control of her role as portfolio manager for the 3D Printing ETF (BATS:PRNT) and the ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF (BATS:IZRL). Both ETFs carry over $100 million in assets under management.</p><p>The Ark Invest CEO did not provide a concrete reason for her departure, although it was announced that Will Scherer would take over as PM for the two ETFs. Scherer joined the firm in 2014 and most recently served as a trading manager.</p><p>The news has investors speculating that the 66-year old Wood is preparing her succession plans. Earlier in June, she appointed Sam Korus and Nicholas Grous as associate PMs. Up until then, Wood was Ark’s only PM. Still, it appears that loyal fans aren’t ready to part ways with the outspoken investor just yet.</p><p>With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top five stocks that Wood purchased this week.</p><p>The Top 5 Stocks Cathie Wood Is Buying This Week</p><p>1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLD\">Velo3D </a></p><p>Velo3D (NYSE:VLD) has an ambitious goal of becoming the largest metal additive manufacturing company by as early as the end of this year. The 3D metals printing company announced last week that it had sold seven of its Sapphire printers to Kevton Technologies. This marked one of the largest sales to a contract manufacturer since the company’s inception. The first two printers are expected to begin work during Q1 of next year.</p><p>Velo3D has also experienced fast-paced growth, with revenue increasing by 15x in the past six quarters. In the most recent quarter, revenue tallied in at $19.6 million, up 60% year-over-year (YOY). Further dilution or equity raises in the near term seems unlikely, as the company had $142 million of cash on hand as of June 30.</p><p>Between September 19 and September 23, the ARK Space Exploration &amp; Innovation (BATS:ARKX) added 99,616 shares of VLD stock. After the purchase, ETF owns a total of 11.1 million shares.</p><p>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSP\">TuSimple </a></p><p>TuSimple (NASDAQ:TSP) seeks to develop safe and efficient autonomous driving (AD) technology for trucks. However, shares of TSP stock have been hampered by a class-action lawsuit relating to an AD driving accident earlier this year.</p><p>In April, The Wall Street Journal revealed that a truck with TSP AD technology had crashed on the highway into a cement barrier. At the time, TuSimple attributed the accident to “human error,” while the WSJ claimed that the accident was due to faulty technology. Afterwards, a class-action lawsuit was filed against the company, citing that it overstated its commitment to safety and rushed to bring its technology to the market. TSP shareholders have until Oct. 31 to join the lawsuit.</p><p>This week, the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) acquired 241,626 shares of TSP stock. In the month of September, the ETF has purchased a total of 764,934 shares.</p><p>3. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe </a></p><p>Shares of Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) have fallen by about 30% in the past month after the software company announced that it would acquire Figma for a whopping $20 billion in cash and stock. Figma is a competitor to Adobe’s XD program and is a collaborative design platform. After the announcement, shares of ADBE fell by 17%, marking the largest decline since 2010.</p><p>Figma was last valued at $10 billion in a 2021 funding round. However, shares of ADBE fell because investors believed that Adobe was paying way too much for Figma. This year, Figma is expected to generate more than $400 million in annual recurring revenue. That would mean that Adobe is paying a roughly 50x revenue multiple for the design platform. Now, Wood is stepping in and buying the dip.</p><p>On Sept. 19, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKW) purchased 22,874 shares of ADBE stock. This was the first purchase of Adobe by any ARK ETF since April 27.</p><p>4. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTLA\">Intellia Therapeutics </a></p><p>Intellia Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NTLA) is a genome editing company that uses CRISPR technology for human therapeutic use. However, shares of NTLA have been highly volatile and carry a 52-week high of $154.15 and a 52-week low of $37.08.</p><p>Last week, the company revealed interim data from the cardiomyopathy arm of its ongoing Phase 1 study in collaboration with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN). The results were promising, showing that NTLA-2001 provided mean serum transthyretin reductions between 92% and 94% with varying doses. The data supports NTLA-2001 as a one-time treatment to “permanently inactivate the TTR gene and reduce the disease-causing protein in people with ATTR-CM.”</p><p>On Sept. 19, ARKK and the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS:ARKG) scooped up a combined 70,873 shares of NTLA stock. After the purchases, Intellia is now the seventh largest holding among all ARK ETFs.</p><p>5. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VERV\">Verve Therapeutics </a></p><p>Verve Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VERV) operates as a biotechnology company that seeks to treat cardiovascular diseases with single-course gene editing medicines. On Sept. 21, it was announced that the United Kingdom Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) had approved the company’s clinical trial authorization (CTA) application. The trial will determine the effectiveness of VERVE-101 in patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH).</p><p>Chief medical and scientific officer Andrew Bellinger added:</p><p>This CTA marks the second regulatory clearance for VERVE-101 as we execute our global strategy focused on bringing a potential single-course gene editing treatment to patients with ASCVD around the world, beginning with HeFH.</p><p>Enrollments for the trial will begin “imminently,” starting with 40 adults affected by HeFH. Furthermore, VERVE-101 has already received clearance to begin heart-1 clinical trials in New Zealand. Interim data for the trial is expected to be released next year.</p><p>This week, ARKK and ARKG purchased a combined 264,606 shares of VERV stock. After the purchases, Ark Invest now owns a total of 2.59 million shares.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Top 5 Stocks Cathie Wood Is Buying This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Top 5 Stocks Cathie Wood Is Buying This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-24 09:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/09/the-top-5-stocks-cathie-wood-is-buying-this-week/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood has handed the reins for two of her ETFs to Ark Invest veteran Will Scherer.This week, she purchased shares in companies like Adobe, TuSimple and Velo3D.Shares of the ARKK Innovation ETF(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/the-top-5-stocks-cathie-wood-is-buying-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/the-top-5-stocks-cathie-wood-is-buying-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137021764","content_text":"Cathie Wood has handed the reins for two of her ETFs to Ark Invest veteran Will Scherer.This week, she purchased shares in companies like Adobe, TuSimple and Velo3D.Shares of the ARKK Innovation ETF(ARKK) are down by over 55% year-to-date.Exchange-traded fund (ETF) manager Cathie Wood made headlines this week after she announced that she would cede control of her role as portfolio manager for the 3D Printing ETF (BATS:PRNT) and the ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF (BATS:IZRL). Both ETFs carry over $100 million in assets under management.The Ark Invest CEO did not provide a concrete reason for her departure, although it was announced that Will Scherer would take over as PM for the two ETFs. Scherer joined the firm in 2014 and most recently served as a trading manager.The news has investors speculating that the 66-year old Wood is preparing her succession plans. Earlier in June, she appointed Sam Korus and Nicholas Grous as associate PMs. Up until then, Wood was Ark’s only PM. Still, it appears that loyal fans aren’t ready to part ways with the outspoken investor just yet.With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top five stocks that Wood purchased this week.The Top 5 Stocks Cathie Wood Is Buying This Week1. Velo3D Velo3D (NYSE:VLD) has an ambitious goal of becoming the largest metal additive manufacturing company by as early as the end of this year. The 3D metals printing company announced last week that it had sold seven of its Sapphire printers to Kevton Technologies. This marked one of the largest sales to a contract manufacturer since the company’s inception. The first two printers are expected to begin work during Q1 of next year.Velo3D has also experienced fast-paced growth, with revenue increasing by 15x in the past six quarters. In the most recent quarter, revenue tallied in at $19.6 million, up 60% year-over-year (YOY). Further dilution or equity raises in the near term seems unlikely, as the company had $142 million of cash on hand as of June 30.Between September 19 and September 23, the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation (BATS:ARKX) added 99,616 shares of VLD stock. After the purchase, ETF owns a total of 11.1 million shares.2. TuSimple TuSimple (NASDAQ:TSP) seeks to develop safe and efficient autonomous driving (AD) technology for trucks. However, shares of TSP stock have been hampered by a class-action lawsuit relating to an AD driving accident earlier this year.In April, The Wall Street Journal revealed that a truck with TSP AD technology had crashed on the highway into a cement barrier. At the time, TuSimple attributed the accident to “human error,” while the WSJ claimed that the accident was due to faulty technology. Afterwards, a class-action lawsuit was filed against the company, citing that it overstated its commitment to safety and rushed to bring its technology to the market. TSP shareholders have until Oct. 31 to join the lawsuit.This week, the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) acquired 241,626 shares of TSP stock. In the month of September, the ETF has purchased a total of 764,934 shares.3. Adobe Shares of Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) have fallen by about 30% in the past month after the software company announced that it would acquire Figma for a whopping $20 billion in cash and stock. Figma is a competitor to Adobe’s XD program and is a collaborative design platform. After the announcement, shares of ADBE fell by 17%, marking the largest decline since 2010.Figma was last valued at $10 billion in a 2021 funding round. However, shares of ADBE fell because investors believed that Adobe was paying way too much for Figma. This year, Figma is expected to generate more than $400 million in annual recurring revenue. That would mean that Adobe is paying a roughly 50x revenue multiple for the design platform. Now, Wood is stepping in and buying the dip.On Sept. 19, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKW) purchased 22,874 shares of ADBE stock. This was the first purchase of Adobe by any ARK ETF since April 27.4. Intellia Therapeutics Intellia Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NTLA) is a genome editing company that uses CRISPR technology for human therapeutic use. However, shares of NTLA have been highly volatile and carry a 52-week high of $154.15 and a 52-week low of $37.08.Last week, the company revealed interim data from the cardiomyopathy arm of its ongoing Phase 1 study in collaboration with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN). The results were promising, showing that NTLA-2001 provided mean serum transthyretin reductions between 92% and 94% with varying doses. The data supports NTLA-2001 as a one-time treatment to “permanently inactivate the TTR gene and reduce the disease-causing protein in people with ATTR-CM.”On Sept. 19, ARKK and the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS:ARKG) scooped up a combined 70,873 shares of NTLA stock. After the purchases, Intellia is now the seventh largest holding among all ARK ETFs.5. Verve Therapeutics Verve Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VERV) operates as a biotechnology company that seeks to treat cardiovascular diseases with single-course gene editing medicines. On Sept. 21, it was announced that the United Kingdom Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) had approved the company’s clinical trial authorization (CTA) application. The trial will determine the effectiveness of VERVE-101 in patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH).Chief medical and scientific officer Andrew Bellinger added:This CTA marks the second regulatory clearance for VERVE-101 as we execute our global strategy focused on bringing a potential single-course gene editing treatment to patients with ASCVD around the world, beginning with HeFH.Enrollments for the trial will begin “imminently,” starting with 40 adults affected by HeFH. Furthermore, VERVE-101 has already received clearance to begin heart-1 clinical trials in New Zealand. Interim data for the trial is expected to be released next year.This week, ARKK and ARKG purchased a combined 264,606 shares of VERV stock. After the purchases, Ark Invest now owns a total of 2.59 million shares.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919746753,"gmtCreate":1663883901472,"gmtModify":1676537353650,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919746753","repostId":"1152785107","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152785107","pubTimestamp":1663860360,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152785107?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The SPY Game - Or How I Stopped Worrying And Learned To Look Up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152785107","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWhile fear abounds, while the market dumps after the FOMC print and subsequent speech, while ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>While fear abounds, while the market dumps after the FOMC print and subsequent speech, while everything you know seems wrong?  The market is holding up well over the June lows.</li><li>We believe SPY remains on course to make new all-time highs in the coming year or so.</li><li>Our evidence for this?  Basic pattern recognition coupled with a high-octane dose of cynicism.</li></ul><p><i>DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer</i> <i>to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note&#39;s date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.</i></p><p>It&#39;s Not Going To Zero. Really It Isn&#39;t.</p><p>As everyone knows the whole market is going to zero, fast, or if not zero then maybe 3000 on the S&amp;P and 10000 on the Nasdaq or whatever. The just desserts of an economy over-fattened by Fed helicopter money with a workforce that would rather buy-pumpkin-spice-latte-pay-later-when-mom-lends-me-the-money than get down to a hard day&#39;s work from dawn to dusk. The decadence of the end of empire. America the Great is Finished. Finished, I tell you!</p><p>This garbage is all over FinTwit right now and in truth it&#39;s not worth reading. The market will go up or it will go down but it has nothing to do with whether Chad makes his Klarna payment or not. It has to do with the institutional dynamic of moving money around in order to generate gains whether the weather be good or whether the weather be bad. And no more so than around key dates such as quarterly options expiry and FOMC prints.</p><p><b>Let&#39;s Talk About SPY</b></p><p>OK folks, let&#39;s just take a step back and zoom out onNYSEARCA:SPY. Using absolutely standard technical analysis pattern-recognition tools (we like the Elliott Wave / Fibonacci method, but, other methods also are available) we can say that in the larger degree, SPY has been carving out a 5-wave up cycle since its 2015 lows. Like this</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca80a46b6ff8f158873974f116b4ad7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SPY Chart I(TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)</p><p>Wave 1 moves up from the 2015 lows to the 2019 high, adding around $158/share on the way up.</p><p>Wave 2 moves from the pre-Covid high to the crisis low, in a Yikes Cat type move as befits a Wave 2, troughs at the 0.786 retrace for a $122/share correction.</p><p>Then Wave 3, adding $283/share to peak a little above the 1.618 extension of Wave 1 (the share price movement in W1 multiplied by 1.618 and placed at the Wave 2 low), right at the end of 2021.</p><p>And along comes the will-it-ever-end Wave 4 selloff of 2022 which despite the apparent unrelented selling - just ask anyone on FinTwit, they&#39;ll tell you! - troughed in June at between the 0.5 and 0.618 retrace of that big Wave 3 high.</p><p>So now the standard Elliott Wave pattern tells us that SPY can make a new high in a final Wave 5 up, peaking sometime in 2023 most likely. A minimum target of $480 or better, enough to just peak above that Wave 3 high.</p><p>Yes, we&#39;re saying SPY can climb to never-before-conquered levels despite inflation and recession and 75bps and labor market and blah. Why? Because SPY has traded <i>so</i> well to this standard pattern for so long that we believe it more likely than not that it sees the pattern through to the end.</p><p>But don&#39;t take our word for it. Let&#39;s zoom in. As you know, if SPY has commenced its climb up from the June lows towards its final resting place in the sky, it ought to be showing wave progress in the smaller degree too.</p><p>And is it ever. Today&#39;s close was actually funny, so perfectly did the ETF kiss the 0.618 retraces of Wave 3 on the way up then the 0.786 retrace on the way down. But even after this dump the stock remains perfectly positioned to move up. This is the Wave 1 and Wave 2 in the smaller degree up off of the June lows. That is one picture-perfect Wave 2 low right there. We shall see what happens but to us that&#39;s thus far confirming evidence that SPY will be moving up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65bfa539e75474ecde04800d17b63585\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SPY Chart II(TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)</p><p><b>What The Fed Is Going On Then?</b></p><p>Today was a very strange day if you look closely. The index ETFs SPY and QQQ both did exactly the same thing - the two charts above are in essence carbon copies whether you look at the QQQ or the SPY. Up then down, to close down, at a level suggesting that the next big move is up. But still bright red on the day.</p><p>Whereas ostensibly more scary stocks like Cloudflare (NET), Palantir (PLTR), DataDog (DDOG) and so on - were ...<i>up</i>? Huh?</p><p>We may be able to shed some light on this. Now, we hate to come over all FinTwit once more and be shouting about <i>manipulation</i> and so forth. Because that&#39;s just naive. In the Great Online Game of traded securities, the game is in fact that all the other players are trying to take all your money off of you. That is Rule 1. The basic rule. The constitution upon which all other rules are founded. And further, while we don&#39;t doubt that there are some bad apples in the virtual Big Apple that&#39;s rather quaintly still referred to as The Street, most times Big Money is just doing its job which is, being good at taking money off of Chad and not letting Chad take money off of it, or at least not for very long.</p><p>You see in the index ETFs there&#39;s a hugely powerful force at work - not Jerome Powell, not Redditors, but the options market. The capital sloshing around in options way exceeds the capital in equities, and as a result it&#39;s to some degree true that options are the primary security class, equities the derivatives. As a simple illustration, here you can see how the major reversal points in SPY in recent years have coincided with major options expiry dates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1de0c0082c1ca0ce7a2e248d7d64ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Chart III(TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)</p><p>Options markets love FOMC days because the emotion - the volatility - is running high. And you have a wall of capital in SPY and QQQ puts and calls sat driving the ETF stocks around all day. It&#39;s no surprise on that basis that the closing price - the place where the option probability surface collapses to a singularity - hit a key technical level in both the SPY and the QQQ with such precision. Now, if you want to go deeper into the options-are-primary, stocks-are-derivatives rabbit hole - and it&#39;s a doozy - we suggest you take a look at our friends over at SpotGamma who are expert on the topic. For us, we&#39;ll just observe that the wall of option money pushing the ETFs around is not in place at scary high-beta names such as NET or PLTR and so on. So the market reaction today may look like genuine fear, but it isn&#39;t. Because if it was widespread genuine fear, all these high beta names would be getting dumped. And they&#39;re not.</p><p>So we say: SPY is setting up in a smaller degree 1,2 for a smaller degree 3 which will represent a material push up toward that new all time high. We think the next big move for SPY is, up, and we think the June low was the low for the Wave 4 just passed. You&#39;ll know soon enough if we&#39;re right or wrong. If right, SPY won&#39;t spend long at the $377 zip code but will instead move up and out; if wrong, SPY will plunge down through that $377 level to continue the larger-degree Wave 4 down. This will happen soon, either way.</p><p>For now we remain bullish on SPY and assign an Accumulate rating to the name.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The SPY Game - Or How I Stopped Worrying And Learned To Look Up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe SPY Game - Or How I Stopped Worrying And Learned To Look Up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-22 23:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542378-spy-stop-worrying-learn-to-look-up><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWhile fear abounds, while the market dumps after the FOMC print and subsequent speech, while everything you know seems wrong?  The market is holding up well over the June lows.We believe SPY ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542378-spy-stop-worrying-learn-to-look-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542378-spy-stop-worrying-learn-to-look-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152785107","content_text":"SummaryWhile fear abounds, while the market dumps after the FOMC print and subsequent speech, while everything you know seems wrong?  The market is holding up well over the June lows.We believe SPY remains on course to make new all-time highs in the coming year or so.Our evidence for this?  Basic pattern recognition coupled with a high-octane dose of cynicism.DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.It's Not Going To Zero. Really It Isn't.As everyone knows the whole market is going to zero, fast, or if not zero then maybe 3000 on the S&P and 10000 on the Nasdaq or whatever. The just desserts of an economy over-fattened by Fed helicopter money with a workforce that would rather buy-pumpkin-spice-latte-pay-later-when-mom-lends-me-the-money than get down to a hard day's work from dawn to dusk. The decadence of the end of empire. America the Great is Finished. Finished, I tell you!This garbage is all over FinTwit right now and in truth it's not worth reading. The market will go up or it will go down but it has nothing to do with whether Chad makes his Klarna payment or not. It has to do with the institutional dynamic of moving money around in order to generate gains whether the weather be good or whether the weather be bad. And no more so than around key dates such as quarterly options expiry and FOMC prints.Let's Talk About SPYOK folks, let's just take a step back and zoom out onNYSEARCA:SPY. Using absolutely standard technical analysis pattern-recognition tools (we like the Elliott Wave / Fibonacci method, but, other methods also are available) we can say that in the larger degree, SPY has been carving out a 5-wave up cycle since its 2015 lows. Like thisSPY Chart I(TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)Wave 1 moves up from the 2015 lows to the 2019 high, adding around $158/share on the way up.Wave 2 moves from the pre-Covid high to the crisis low, in a Yikes Cat type move as befits a Wave 2, troughs at the 0.786 retrace for a $122/share correction.Then Wave 3, adding $283/share to peak a little above the 1.618 extension of Wave 1 (the share price movement in W1 multiplied by 1.618 and placed at the Wave 2 low), right at the end of 2021.And along comes the will-it-ever-end Wave 4 selloff of 2022 which despite the apparent unrelented selling - just ask anyone on FinTwit, they'll tell you! - troughed in June at between the 0.5 and 0.618 retrace of that big Wave 3 high.So now the standard Elliott Wave pattern tells us that SPY can make a new high in a final Wave 5 up, peaking sometime in 2023 most likely. A minimum target of $480 or better, enough to just peak above that Wave 3 high.Yes, we're saying SPY can climb to never-before-conquered levels despite inflation and recession and 75bps and labor market and blah. Why? Because SPY has traded so well to this standard pattern for so long that we believe it more likely than not that it sees the pattern through to the end.But don't take our word for it. Let's zoom in. As you know, if SPY has commenced its climb up from the June lows towards its final resting place in the sky, it ought to be showing wave progress in the smaller degree too.And is it ever. Today's close was actually funny, so perfectly did the ETF kiss the 0.618 retraces of Wave 3 on the way up then the 0.786 retrace on the way down. But even after this dump the stock remains perfectly positioned to move up. This is the Wave 1 and Wave 2 in the smaller degree up off of the June lows. That is one picture-perfect Wave 2 low right there. We shall see what happens but to us that's thus far confirming evidence that SPY will be moving up.SPY Chart II(TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)What The Fed Is Going On Then?Today was a very strange day if you look closely. The index ETFs SPY and QQQ both did exactly the same thing - the two charts above are in essence carbon copies whether you look at the QQQ or the SPY. Up then down, to close down, at a level suggesting that the next big move is up. But still bright red on the day.Whereas ostensibly more scary stocks like Cloudflare (NET), Palantir (PLTR), DataDog (DDOG) and so on - were ...up? Huh?We may be able to shed some light on this. Now, we hate to come over all FinTwit once more and be shouting about manipulation and so forth. Because that's just naive. In the Great Online Game of traded securities, the game is in fact that all the other players are trying to take all your money off of you. That is Rule 1. The basic rule. The constitution upon which all other rules are founded. And further, while we don't doubt that there are some bad apples in the virtual Big Apple that's rather quaintly still referred to as The Street, most times Big Money is just doing its job which is, being good at taking money off of Chad and not letting Chad take money off of it, or at least not for very long.You see in the index ETFs there's a hugely powerful force at work - not Jerome Powell, not Redditors, but the options market. The capital sloshing around in options way exceeds the capital in equities, and as a result it's to some degree true that options are the primary security class, equities the derivatives. As a simple illustration, here you can see how the major reversal points in SPY in recent years have coincided with major options expiry dates.S&P Chart III(TrendSpider, Cestrian Analysis)Options markets love FOMC days because the emotion - the volatility - is running high. And you have a wall of capital in SPY and QQQ puts and calls sat driving the ETF stocks around all day. It's no surprise on that basis that the closing price - the place where the option probability surface collapses to a singularity - hit a key technical level in both the SPY and the QQQ with such precision. Now, if you want to go deeper into the options-are-primary, stocks-are-derivatives rabbit hole - and it's a doozy - we suggest you take a look at our friends over at SpotGamma who are expert on the topic. For us, we'll just observe that the wall of option money pushing the ETFs around is not in place at scary high-beta names such as NET or PLTR and so on. So the market reaction today may look like genuine fear, but it isn't. Because if it was widespread genuine fear, all these high beta names would be getting dumped. And they're not.So we say: SPY is setting up in a smaller degree 1,2 for a smaller degree 3 which will represent a material push up toward that new all time high. We think the next big move for SPY is, up, and we think the June low was the low for the Wave 4 just passed. You'll know soon enough if we're right or wrong. If right, SPY won't spend long at the $377 zip code but will instead move up and out; if wrong, SPY will plunge down through that $377 level to continue the larger-degree Wave 4 down. This will happen soon, either way.For now we remain bullish on SPY and assign an Accumulate rating to the name.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919691901,"gmtCreate":1663797983304,"gmtModify":1676537335894,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919691901","repostId":"1109921858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109921858","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663785473,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109921858?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 02:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Is Purposefully Hiking Rates in Commitment to Tame Inflation: Powell's Press Conference","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109921858","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The Federal Reserve is raising rates \"purposefully\" to reach levels to bring down inflation, Federal","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>The Federal Reserve is raising rates &#34;purposefully&#34; to reach levels to bring down inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference after the central bank raised its key rate by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting.</li><li>The Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s median expectation for GDP growth was trimmed to 0.2% this year and to 1.2% for next year, he said.</li><li>Labor markets are still extremely tight and job gains are robust, Powell said. &#34;The labor market continues to be out of balance,&#34; he added.</li><li>&#34;Price pressures remain evident&#34; across a broad range of goods and services, though energy prices have declined.</li><li>&#34;At some point&#34; a slower pace of rate increases will be appropriate, and the FOMC will make their rate decision on meeting-by-meeting basis, Powell added.</li></ul><ul><li>In Powell&#39;s estimation, the Fed has just moved its rate to the &#34;very lowest&#34; level of restrictive. Commodity prices look like they may have peaked, but factors such as the war in Ukraine still cloud the outlook.</li><li>&#34;My main message has not changed at all since Jackson Hole,&#34; he said.</li><li>&#34;There&#39;s only modest evidence that the labor market has cooled. In light of the high inflation that we&#39;re seeing, we think that we&#39;ll need to bring the federal funds rate to a restrictive level and keep it there for some time.&#34; The central bankers will need to see &#34;clear evidence&#34; that inflation is moving toward its 2% objective before slowing the rate hike pace.</li><li>The expectation that rates will need to stay restrictive for longer will hurt the chances for a soft landing, he said.</li><li>He would not predict the size of the rate increase at the next meeting. &#34;The median for year-end suggests another 125 basis points,&#34; but another group of policymakers saw 100 bp of increases by year-end, Powell said. &#34;We&#39;re committed to a restrictive level and getting there pretty quickly.&#34;</li><li>As for its balance sheet shrinking plan, the Fed isn&#39;t considering a decision on selling mortgage-backed securities &#34;anytime soon,&#34; the Fed chair said.</li><li>The rate hikes are having an effect on interest-sensitive spending (such as housing). However, consumers still have some savings and the states &#34;are flush with cash,&#34; he said. &#34;There&#39;s good reason to think it will be a reasonably strong economy,&#34; Powell said.</li><li>A &#34;difficult correction&#34; in the housing market should result in a more normal price growth path, compared with the red-hot housing market earlier this year.</li><li>The CME FedWatchtool now puts a 69.1% probability of a 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in November, and then a 65.7% chance for a 50 bps increase in December.</li><li>Powell ends the press conference, saying the path the Fed takes &#34;will be enough&#34; to bring inflation down.</li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Is Purposefully Hiking Rates in Commitment to Tame Inflation: Powell's Press Conference</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Is Purposefully Hiking Rates in Commitment to Tame Inflation: Powell's Press Conference\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-22 02:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>The Federal Reserve is raising rates &#34;purposefully&#34; to reach levels to bring down inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference after the central bank raised its key rate by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting.</li><li>The Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s median expectation for GDP growth was trimmed to 0.2% this year and to 1.2% for next year, he said.</li><li>Labor markets are still extremely tight and job gains are robust, Powell said. &#34;The labor market continues to be out of balance,&#34; he added.</li><li>&#34;Price pressures remain evident&#34; across a broad range of goods and services, though energy prices have declined.</li><li>&#34;At some point&#34; a slower pace of rate increases will be appropriate, and the FOMC will make their rate decision on meeting-by-meeting basis, Powell added.</li></ul><ul><li>In Powell&#39;s estimation, the Fed has just moved its rate to the &#34;very lowest&#34; level of restrictive. Commodity prices look like they may have peaked, but factors such as the war in Ukraine still cloud the outlook.</li><li>&#34;My main message has not changed at all since Jackson Hole,&#34; he said.</li><li>&#34;There&#39;s only modest evidence that the labor market has cooled. In light of the high inflation that we&#39;re seeing, we think that we&#39;ll need to bring the federal funds rate to a restrictive level and keep it there for some time.&#34; The central bankers will need to see &#34;clear evidence&#34; that inflation is moving toward its 2% objective before slowing the rate hike pace.</li><li>The expectation that rates will need to stay restrictive for longer will hurt the chances for a soft landing, he said.</li><li>He would not predict the size of the rate increase at the next meeting. &#34;The median for year-end suggests another 125 basis points,&#34; but another group of policymakers saw 100 bp of increases by year-end, Powell said. &#34;We&#39;re committed to a restrictive level and getting there pretty quickly.&#34;</li><li>As for its balance sheet shrinking plan, the Fed isn&#39;t considering a decision on selling mortgage-backed securities &#34;anytime soon,&#34; the Fed chair said.</li><li>The rate hikes are having an effect on interest-sensitive spending (such as housing). However, consumers still have some savings and the states &#34;are flush with cash,&#34; he said. &#34;There&#39;s good reason to think it will be a reasonably strong economy,&#34; Powell said.</li><li>A &#34;difficult correction&#34; in the housing market should result in a more normal price growth path, compared with the red-hot housing market earlier this year.</li><li>The CME FedWatchtool now puts a 69.1% probability of a 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in November, and then a 65.7% chance for a 50 bps increase in December.</li><li>Powell ends the press conference, saying the path the Fed takes &#34;will be enough&#34; to bring inflation down.</li></ul></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109921858","content_text":"The Federal Reserve is raising rates \"purposefully\" to reach levels to bring down inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference after the central bank raised its key rate by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting.The Federal Open Market Committee's median expectation for GDP growth was trimmed to 0.2% this year and to 1.2% for next year, he said.Labor markets are still extremely tight and job gains are robust, Powell said. \"The labor market continues to be out of balance,\" he added.\"Price pressures remain evident\" across a broad range of goods and services, though energy prices have declined.\"At some point\" a slower pace of rate increases will be appropriate, and the FOMC will make their rate decision on meeting-by-meeting basis, Powell added.In Powell's estimation, the Fed has just moved its rate to the \"very lowest\" level of restrictive. Commodity prices look like they may have peaked, but factors such as the war in Ukraine still cloud the outlook.\"My main message has not changed at all since Jackson Hole,\" he said.\"There's only modest evidence that the labor market has cooled. In light of the high inflation that we're seeing, we think that we'll need to bring the federal funds rate to a restrictive level and keep it there for some time.\" The central bankers will need to see \"clear evidence\" that inflation is moving toward its 2% objective before slowing the rate hike pace.The expectation that rates will need to stay restrictive for longer will hurt the chances for a soft landing, he said.He would not predict the size of the rate increase at the next meeting. \"The median for year-end suggests another 125 basis points,\" but another group of policymakers saw 100 bp of increases by year-end, Powell said. \"We're committed to a restrictive level and getting there pretty quickly.\"As for its balance sheet shrinking plan, the Fed isn't considering a decision on selling mortgage-backed securities \"anytime soon,\" the Fed chair said.The rate hikes are having an effect on interest-sensitive spending (such as housing). However, consumers still have some savings and the states \"are flush with cash,\" he said. \"There's good reason to think it will be a reasonably strong economy,\" Powell said.A \"difficult correction\" in the housing market should result in a more normal price growth path, compared with the red-hot housing market earlier this year.The CME FedWatchtool now puts a 69.1% probability of a 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in November, and then a 65.7% chance for a 50 bps increase in December.Powell ends the press conference, saying the path the Fed takes \"will be enough\" to bring inflation down.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919019480,"gmtCreate":1663712395140,"gmtModify":1676537318392,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919019480","repostId":"2268391042","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268391042","pubTimestamp":1663663883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268391042?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 16:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"VOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268391042","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtr","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.</li><li>The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening monetary policies.</li><li>Investor sentiment and valuations would be impacted by a large percentage of downside earnings revisions.</li><li>The historical data also suggests that going long ahead of a recession is not a prudent strategy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5056e902bdaef835ab02d4d345d0153e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>ronniechua</span></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is on the edge of a bear market once again as the recovery from mid-June to mid-August proved to be no more than a bear market rally, in my opinion. In the last thirty days, the indexplunged around 9% and is currently only a few percentage points higher than its mid-June lows. I believe the broader market index, as well as related ETFs such as the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO), are likely to hit new lows in the coming months, and the bear trend might last longer than the recent routes. What’s more concerning is that global GDP growth and corporate earnings are projected to fall further in the next year. In addition, historical trends suggest that the market has a lot more room to fall. Therefore, buying the latest dip doesn’t look like a prudent strategy to me.</p><h2>Demand Destruction Pushing Economies into Recession</h2><h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc3c3e1aa15446ec437054d90c22084f\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"689\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>True_insights (Bloomberg)</span></p></h2><p>Economic and monetary policy directly affect stock market performance. Historically, the US stock market has faced challenges when economic numbers drop, but bull markets usually occur when monetary conditions are easy and economic growth is stable. There have been 10 official U.S. recessions since 1957 and the stock market has lost 29% on average after each recession. In economics, high prices or limited supply guides demand destruction. A number of factors are contributing to demand destruction at the moment, including high inflation, tightening monetary policies, the Russian war, and the Chinese economic slowdown.</p><p>Rating agencies and the World Bank are cutting their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the negative impact of demand destruction on business activities. Fitch, for instance, slashed its 2022 global growth forecast for the third time in nine months to 2.4%, down by 0.5% from its June forecast. For 2023, it expects the global GDP to grow by only 1.7%. It also projects the eurozone and UK will enter recession in the December quarter of 2022, and that the recession will last longer. Fitch also predicts a mild recession in the United States in mid-2023.</p><h2>Earnings Revisions</h2><p>As it appears that economies will fall into recession from the December quarter, analysts and companies are cutting earnings expectations faster. For example, FedEx (FDX), one of the world&#39;s largest air freight and logistics companies, missed earnings expectations for the first quarter by a greater margin. Additionally, the company expects the situation to worsen in the next quarter.</p><blockquote>Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, Q1 results are below our expectations, CEO Raj Subramaniam said.</blockquote><p>It&#39;s evident from FedEx&#39;s earnings miss that the market environment is worse than many had predicted. In the quarters ahead, industrial, materials, and real estate sectors could face massive earnings reductions as a slower economic activity directly impacts their revenue generation capacities. This trend is also reflected in Seeking Alpha&#39;s poor quant grades for a large number of key industrial stocks. In contrast, mega-cap tech stocks including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) have seen an average earningsestimatedrop of 21.4% over the last 90 days, while projections for 2023 have declined 11.3%. In the case of VOO, the majority of its top 10 stock holdings, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have seen a large number of downside earnings revisions for 2022 and 2023.</p><h2>Valuations</h2><p>The S&amp;P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio eased to around 16.9 at present, down from 1.84% in the previous quarter and 8.76% in the year-ago period. When stocks hit their 2022 low in mid-June, the forward PE was around 16.</p><p>S&amp;P 500&#39;s forward PE ratio could fall below its June lows if the bear trend intensifies in the coming months. Historically, PE ratios have fallen between 13 and 14 during recessions since 1990, with the exception of 2008 when the PE fell below 10. Further, a significant amount of earnings revisions in the coming quarters would put additional pressure on valuations. Any rally in stocks without earnings growth would make them expensive, and it appears that investors might not be willing to pay premiums ahead of a recession and tough monetary conditions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e6a297993692762ac59f1dc1b1ea631\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>yardeni.com (8 tech mega-caps forward PE)</span></p><p>There is also a big difference between the forward earnings ratio of the S&amp;P 500 and that of mega-cap tech stocks. Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia account for almost a quarter of the overall weight of the S&amp;P 500 index and almost half of the S&amp;P 500 growth index. These mega-cap tech stocks have on average a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of around 25. These stocks received either a D or F Seeking Alpha quant grade on valuations. S&amp;P 500 might face steep losses in the days ahead if sentiments turn against paying a premium for big tech stocks due to recession and earnings revisions.</p><h2>Capitulation Phase</h2><p>After hot CPI data and increasing prospects for recession, it appears that investors are selling stakes in fear of more losses, a situation known as a capitulation phase. In general, capitulation occurs during bear markets.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7939879a7b810f27e55c49b90c33d95b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Coatue Management (Investor Presentation)</span></p><p>Coatue Management&#39;s investor presentation also hinted that the markets are in a capitulation phase where the entire stock market will fall before reaching its bottom. Philippe Laffont&#39;s investment firm held 80 percent of its portfolio in cash as of June 2022 following a large number of sales in the first half. Like the dot-com bear market, the firm says non-profitable tech stocks fell in the first phase of 2021. In the second phase, both non-profitable and profitable tech stocks plunged in the first half of 2022. In the third phase, which is called the capitulation phase, the firm predicts the entire public sector is likely to face a downtrend and this phase is likely to last longer than the first two.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>It is not the right time to buy ETFs such as VOO that track the performance of the S&amp;P 500 index in my opinion. As several indicators are sending bear market warnings, the ETF is likely to suffer more losses in the months ahead. FedEx&#39;s poor results and lower outlook have raised concerns over significant earnings revisions for the full year and 2023. Sentiment would also be impacted by the worsening economic situation, as major economic regions are likely to enter recession in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, lofty valuations and historical trends indicate downside movement.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>VOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-20 16:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268391042","content_text":"SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening monetary policies.Investor sentiment and valuations would be impacted by a large percentage of downside earnings revisions.The historical data also suggests that going long ahead of a recession is not a prudent strategy.ronniechuaThe S&P 500 is on the edge of a bear market once again as the recovery from mid-June to mid-August proved to be no more than a bear market rally, in my opinion. In the last thirty days, the indexplunged around 9% and is currently only a few percentage points higher than its mid-June lows. I believe the broader market index, as well as related ETFs such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO), are likely to hit new lows in the coming months, and the bear trend might last longer than the recent routes. What’s more concerning is that global GDP growth and corporate earnings are projected to fall further in the next year. In addition, historical trends suggest that the market has a lot more room to fall. Therefore, buying the latest dip doesn’t look like a prudent strategy to me.Demand Destruction Pushing Economies into RecessionTrue_insights (Bloomberg)Economic and monetary policy directly affect stock market performance. Historically, the US stock market has faced challenges when economic numbers drop, but bull markets usually occur when monetary conditions are easy and economic growth is stable. There have been 10 official U.S. recessions since 1957 and the stock market has lost 29% on average after each recession. In economics, high prices or limited supply guides demand destruction. A number of factors are contributing to demand destruction at the moment, including high inflation, tightening monetary policies, the Russian war, and the Chinese economic slowdown.Rating agencies and the World Bank are cutting their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the negative impact of demand destruction on business activities. Fitch, for instance, slashed its 2022 global growth forecast for the third time in nine months to 2.4%, down by 0.5% from its June forecast. For 2023, it expects the global GDP to grow by only 1.7%. It also projects the eurozone and UK will enter recession in the December quarter of 2022, and that the recession will last longer. Fitch also predicts a mild recession in the United States in mid-2023.Earnings RevisionsAs it appears that economies will fall into recession from the December quarter, analysts and companies are cutting earnings expectations faster. For example, FedEx (FDX), one of the world's largest air freight and logistics companies, missed earnings expectations for the first quarter by a greater margin. Additionally, the company expects the situation to worsen in the next quarter.Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, Q1 results are below our expectations, CEO Raj Subramaniam said.It's evident from FedEx's earnings miss that the market environment is worse than many had predicted. In the quarters ahead, industrial, materials, and real estate sectors could face massive earnings reductions as a slower economic activity directly impacts their revenue generation capacities. This trend is also reflected in Seeking Alpha's poor quant grades for a large number of key industrial stocks. In contrast, mega-cap tech stocks including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) have seen an average earningsestimatedrop of 21.4% over the last 90 days, while projections for 2023 have declined 11.3%. In the case of VOO, the majority of its top 10 stock holdings, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have seen a large number of downside earnings revisions for 2022 and 2023.ValuationsThe S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio eased to around 16.9 at present, down from 1.84% in the previous quarter and 8.76% in the year-ago period. When stocks hit their 2022 low in mid-June, the forward PE was around 16.S&P 500's forward PE ratio could fall below its June lows if the bear trend intensifies in the coming months. Historically, PE ratios have fallen between 13 and 14 during recessions since 1990, with the exception of 2008 when the PE fell below 10. Further, a significant amount of earnings revisions in the coming quarters would put additional pressure on valuations. Any rally in stocks without earnings growth would make them expensive, and it appears that investors might not be willing to pay premiums ahead of a recession and tough monetary conditions.yardeni.com (8 tech mega-caps forward PE)There is also a big difference between the forward earnings ratio of the S&P 500 and that of mega-cap tech stocks. Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia account for almost a quarter of the overall weight of the S&P 500 index and almost half of the S&P 500 growth index. These mega-cap tech stocks have on average a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of around 25. These stocks received either a D or F Seeking Alpha quant grade on valuations. S&P 500 might face steep losses in the days ahead if sentiments turn against paying a premium for big tech stocks due to recession and earnings revisions.Capitulation PhaseAfter hot CPI data and increasing prospects for recession, it appears that investors are selling stakes in fear of more losses, a situation known as a capitulation phase. In general, capitulation occurs during bear markets.Coatue Management (Investor Presentation)Coatue Management's investor presentation also hinted that the markets are in a capitulation phase where the entire stock market will fall before reaching its bottom. Philippe Laffont's investment firm held 80 percent of its portfolio in cash as of June 2022 following a large number of sales in the first half. Like the dot-com bear market, the firm says non-profitable tech stocks fell in the first phase of 2021. In the second phase, both non-profitable and profitable tech stocks plunged in the first half of 2022. In the third phase, which is called the capitulation phase, the firm predicts the entire public sector is likely to face a downtrend and this phase is likely to last longer than the first two.ConclusionIt is not the right time to buy ETFs such as VOO that track the performance of the S&P 500 index in my opinion. As several indicators are sending bear market warnings, the ETF is likely to suffer more losses in the months ahead. FedEx's poor results and lower outlook have raised concerns over significant earnings revisions for the full year and 2023. Sentiment would also be impacted by the worsening economic situation, as major economic regions are likely to enter recession in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, lofty valuations and historical trends indicate downside movement.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910613493,"gmtCreate":1663624749913,"gmtModify":1676537300937,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910613493","repostId":"1158905038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158905038","pubTimestamp":1663591588,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158905038?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 20:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158905038","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factor","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>In this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco&#39;s QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.</li><li>Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest of June lows is looking nailed on to materialize.</li><li>I rate QQQ &#39;Neutral&#39; at $290.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53444cd062deb64dcc2310c4eee26ce0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Dilok Klaisataporn</span></p><p>Introduction: Where Do We Stand?</p><p>Invesco&#39;s QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. After a scintillating summer rally off of June lows, tech stocks and equity markets, in general, have resumed their downtrend. The lasttime I wrote on QQQ was back in early June, and here&#39;s what I said at the time:</p><blockquote>In the near term, I see QQQ running up to the $320-330 range, but over the medium term, we are likely to decline to $250-260. These targets are based on fundamental, quantitative, and technical analysis shared in today&#39;s note. With a near-term upside of 3-8% and a medium-term downside of ~20-25%, I&#39;m not too fond of QQQ&#39;s risk/reward here. Therefore, I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Source:Is QQQ A Buy Or Sell During The Dip? It&#39;s Complicated</i></blockquote><p>After initially dipping to ~$270 by mid-June, the QQQ went on a smashing rally to reach the $335 level by mid-August. On 15th August 2022, I wrote the following in my newsletter:</p><blockquote>A series of higher highs and higher lows seem to reflect a strong bullish reversal; however, below-average trading volumes are unnerving. We are close to a resistance zone in the $335-345 range, and on the weekly chart, QQQ is testing the top end of the falling wedge pattern we have traded in for the last nine months. A rejection from this zone could quite easily trigger a retest of June lows.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Source:TQI Weekly - Issue #5: A New Bull Market Or Just Another Bear Market Rally</i></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159a6c2ed14077cf70319e8af4b8ccfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>QQQ&#39;s chart as of mid-August (WeBull Desktop)</span></p><p>Now, I am not sharing this history to showcase some extraordinary ability to predict the stock market. Instead, I strongly believe that nobody knows where the market is going in the near term. All we can do is analyze the fundamental, quantitative, and technical data to get a better understanding of what could happen in the market. And then orient our investing operations to benefit from this probabilistic understanding of the market environment.</p><p>Sticky inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish monetary policy, and slowing economic activity do not portend strong equity market returns for the foreseeable future. On Tuesday, the CPI inflation print came in hotter-than-expected at 8.3%, surprising market participants betting on a drop off in inflation. However, on the ground, inflation is slowing down [e.g., prices at the gas station are down significantly in recent weeks, home prices are declining, used auto prices are way off their peak, and there are many other instances]. Now, the lagging rents data (~30-40% of CPI) is set to make the headline inflation numbers look bad for some time to come.</p><p>While renowned investors like Ray Dalio and Jeff Gundlach called out the rising probability of a recession during this week (and predicted another 20-25% decline in S&amp;P500), the Fed seems to be focusing on countering inflation - moving full steam ahead with its quantitative tightening program. The expectations for the Fed&#39;s September meeting (on 21st and 22nd) are now pointing toward a 75-100 bps hike in the federal funds rate, and the bond market seems to be pricing in more hawkishness from Fed chair Jay Powell, as treasury rates continue to shift up rapidly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d4fb12a3da252cd53a6b5e96f4a380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p>Legendary investor Warren Buffett&#39;s quote comes to mind:</p><blockquote>Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices. The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates.</blockquote><p>As interest rates have shot up in 2022, equities have been getting re-rated lower, and after a 28% YTD decline, the P/E ratio for Invesco&#39;s QQQ ETF (QQQ) [an ETF tracking Nasdaq-100 index] has come down to ~22-23x. Looking at historical data from the past ten years, the QQQ seems like a no-brainer buy at around 20x earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a4da36ad357f2be93d1e18fbcb5edbc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>GuruFocus</span></p><p>However, persistently-high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing economic activity (amidst waning consumer confidence) are significant threats to corporate earnings and the valuation multiples attached to these earnings. Honestly, earnings may be the next shoe to drop in this market cycle, and Q3 &amp; Q4 could bring a lot more volatility to the equity markets.</p><p>A Look At Some Recent Market Action</p><p>Broad market indices [S&amp;P500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)] got off to a strong start in September; however, volatility returned to Wall Street last week. On Tuesday, stocks took a tumble (SPY down ~4%, QQQ down ~5%) as inflation data came in hotter-than-expected - raising expectations of a 75-100 bps rate hike by the Fed at its September meeting and even more hawkishness from the Fed. After a couple of benign days on Wednesday and Thursday, the sell-off resumed on Friday, with all major indices closing in the red. With the Fed tightening into a slowing economy, the fears of an economic recession are growing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0576618c7710bd346a4a0f9d24e86a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p>At my recently launched marketplace service, The Quantamental Investor, we saw our GARP &amp; Buyback-Dividend portfolios experience a negative ROIC of -1.42% and -1.54% over the last two weeks, with a big chunk of weakness coming from a sell-off in large to mega-cap tech stocks. Interestingly, the performance of small to mid-cap (higher growth) companies was superior to that of their larger counterparts. As of the close on Friday, TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth portfolio had an ROIC of +3.76%, which was better than iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF&#39;s (IWF) return of -1.86%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8806662e5af57a7b54a1a3e62a249693\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At TQI, our playbook for this bear market is -</p><blockquote>Build long positions slowly and manage risk proactively.</blockquote><p>If equity prices continue to fall over the coming weeks and months, then our dollar cost averaging plan will prove to be an effective risk management strategy. At TQI, we started our core portfolios with a 50% cash position, which we intend to deploy in a staggered way over the next ten months.</p><p>Where Is The Market Headed Next?</p><p>I don&#39;t know where the market will be a week, a month, or a quarter from now. However, considering valuations and technical charts, I think a retest of QQQ&#39;s June lows of ~$270 is very likely in the near term.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a46914a4f61975720b899626da4c4047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>WeBull Desktop</span></p><p>If we fail to hold these levels, QQQ may be in for a decline to the $215-235 range. And I say this because the tech generals (largest components) in QQQ - Apple and Microsoft - have a potential downside of ~30-40% each. Read my latest articles on this subject to understand my reasoning for this call:</p><ul><li>Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More [September 15th, 2022]</li><li>Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens Round-2 [August 25th, 2022]</li><li>Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens [April 20th, 2022]</li></ul><p>We are getting closer to the Q3 (fall) earnings season, and that&#39;s when we could see a resolution on either side of the ~$270 level. With rising interest rates, the P/E trading multiples on QQQ are unlikely to expand in the foreseeable future (unless the earnings drop off, in which case the price will likely follow). Overall, I am not too fond of QQQ&#39;s medium-term risk-reward from current levels.</p><p>Final Thoughts</p><p>The Fed is hawkish as ever, and its balance sheet roll-off has just started. At some point, the Fed will break something in the economy, and then we will see yet another pivot. However, investors may have to undergo a lot more pain in equity markets before this happens. As the old adage goes -</p><blockquote><b>Don&#39;t Fight The Fed.</b></blockquote><p>And we are abiding by this rule in all of TQI&#39;s core portfolios by running our investing operations with ~50% in cash and deploying this cash slowly in a staggered fashion over a long period of time.</p><p>Over the near term, the QQQ is likely headed to June lows of ~$270, which is a downside of -7%. With the near and medium-term risk/reward being unattractive, I continue to rate QQQ &#39;Neutral&#39; at ~$290.</p><p>While broad market [QQQ] is not enticing, there are loads of individual stocks offering asymmetric risk/reward opportunities. Being selective, contrarian, and right could yield spectacular returns for investors buying during periods of heightened volatility like the one we are experiencing today. I&#39;ll leave you with this thought - &#34;Invest actively and manage risk proactively.&#34;</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.</p><p>Thank you for reading, and happy investing. Please feel free to share any questions, thoughts, or concerns in the comments section below.</p><p><i>This article was written by Ahan Vashi, </i><i>for reference only.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-19 20:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158905038","content_text":"SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest of June lows is looking nailed on to materialize.I rate QQQ 'Neutral' at $290.Dilok KlaisatapornIntroduction: Where Do We Stand?Invesco's QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. After a scintillating summer rally off of June lows, tech stocks and equity markets, in general, have resumed their downtrend. The lasttime I wrote on QQQ was back in early June, and here's what I said at the time:In the near term, I see QQQ running up to the $320-330 range, but over the medium term, we are likely to decline to $250-260. These targets are based on fundamental, quantitative, and technical analysis shared in today's note. With a near-term upside of 3-8% and a medium-term downside of ~20-25%, I'm not too fond of QQQ's risk/reward here. Therefore, I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.Source:Is QQQ A Buy Or Sell During The Dip? It's ComplicatedAfter initially dipping to ~$270 by mid-June, the QQQ went on a smashing rally to reach the $335 level by mid-August. On 15th August 2022, I wrote the following in my newsletter:A series of higher highs and higher lows seem to reflect a strong bullish reversal; however, below-average trading volumes are unnerving. We are close to a resistance zone in the $335-345 range, and on the weekly chart, QQQ is testing the top end of the falling wedge pattern we have traded in for the last nine months. A rejection from this zone could quite easily trigger a retest of June lows.Source:TQI Weekly - Issue #5: A New Bull Market Or Just Another Bear Market RallyQQQ's chart as of mid-August (WeBull Desktop)Now, I am not sharing this history to showcase some extraordinary ability to predict the stock market. Instead, I strongly believe that nobody knows where the market is going in the near term. All we can do is analyze the fundamental, quantitative, and technical data to get a better understanding of what could happen in the market. And then orient our investing operations to benefit from this probabilistic understanding of the market environment.Sticky inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish monetary policy, and slowing economic activity do not portend strong equity market returns for the foreseeable future. On Tuesday, the CPI inflation print came in hotter-than-expected at 8.3%, surprising market participants betting on a drop off in inflation. However, on the ground, inflation is slowing down [e.g., prices at the gas station are down significantly in recent weeks, home prices are declining, used auto prices are way off their peak, and there are many other instances]. Now, the lagging rents data (~30-40% of CPI) is set to make the headline inflation numbers look bad for some time to come.While renowned investors like Ray Dalio and Jeff Gundlach called out the rising probability of a recession during this week (and predicted another 20-25% decline in S&P500), the Fed seems to be focusing on countering inflation - moving full steam ahead with its quantitative tightening program. The expectations for the Fed's September meeting (on 21st and 22nd) are now pointing toward a 75-100 bps hike in the federal funds rate, and the bond market seems to be pricing in more hawkishness from Fed chair Jay Powell, as treasury rates continue to shift up rapidly.YChartsLegendary investor Warren Buffett's quote comes to mind:Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices. The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates.As interest rates have shot up in 2022, equities have been getting re-rated lower, and after a 28% YTD decline, the P/E ratio for Invesco's QQQ ETF (QQQ) [an ETF tracking Nasdaq-100 index] has come down to ~22-23x. Looking at historical data from the past ten years, the QQQ seems like a no-brainer buy at around 20x earnings.GuruFocusHowever, persistently-high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing economic activity (amidst waning consumer confidence) are significant threats to corporate earnings and the valuation multiples attached to these earnings. Honestly, earnings may be the next shoe to drop in this market cycle, and Q3 & Q4 could bring a lot more volatility to the equity markets.A Look At Some Recent Market ActionBroad market indices [S&P500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)] got off to a strong start in September; however, volatility returned to Wall Street last week. On Tuesday, stocks took a tumble (SPY down ~4%, QQQ down ~5%) as inflation data came in hotter-than-expected - raising expectations of a 75-100 bps rate hike by the Fed at its September meeting and even more hawkishness from the Fed. After a couple of benign days on Wednesday and Thursday, the sell-off resumed on Friday, with all major indices closing in the red. With the Fed tightening into a slowing economy, the fears of an economic recession are growing.YChartsAt my recently launched marketplace service, The Quantamental Investor, we saw our GARP & Buyback-Dividend portfolios experience a negative ROIC of -1.42% and -1.54% over the last two weeks, with a big chunk of weakness coming from a sell-off in large to mega-cap tech stocks. Interestingly, the performance of small to mid-cap (higher growth) companies was superior to that of their larger counterparts. As of the close on Friday, TQI's Moonshot Growth portfolio had an ROIC of +3.76%, which was better than iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF's (IWF) return of -1.86%.At TQI, our playbook for this bear market is -Build long positions slowly and manage risk proactively.If equity prices continue to fall over the coming weeks and months, then our dollar cost averaging plan will prove to be an effective risk management strategy. At TQI, we started our core portfolios with a 50% cash position, which we intend to deploy in a staggered way over the next ten months.Where Is The Market Headed Next?I don't know where the market will be a week, a month, or a quarter from now. However, considering valuations and technical charts, I think a retest of QQQ's June lows of ~$270 is very likely in the near term.WeBull DesktopIf we fail to hold these levels, QQQ may be in for a decline to the $215-235 range. And I say this because the tech generals (largest components) in QQQ - Apple and Microsoft - have a potential downside of ~30-40% each. Read my latest articles on this subject to understand my reasoning for this call:Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More [September 15th, 2022]Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens Round-2 [August 25th, 2022]Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens [April 20th, 2022]We are getting closer to the Q3 (fall) earnings season, and that's when we could see a resolution on either side of the ~$270 level. With rising interest rates, the P/E trading multiples on QQQ are unlikely to expand in the foreseeable future (unless the earnings drop off, in which case the price will likely follow). Overall, I am not too fond of QQQ's medium-term risk-reward from current levels.Final ThoughtsThe Fed is hawkish as ever, and its balance sheet roll-off has just started. At some point, the Fed will break something in the economy, and then we will see yet another pivot. However, investors may have to undergo a lot more pain in equity markets before this happens. As the old adage goes -Don't Fight The Fed.And we are abiding by this rule in all of TQI's core portfolios by running our investing operations with ~50% in cash and deploying this cash slowly in a staggered fashion over a long period of time.Over the near term, the QQQ is likely headed to June lows of ~$270, which is a downside of -7%. With the near and medium-term risk/reward being unattractive, I continue to rate QQQ 'Neutral' at ~$290.While broad market [QQQ] is not enticing, there are loads of individual stocks offering asymmetric risk/reward opportunities. Being selective, contrarian, and right could yield spectacular returns for investors buying during periods of heightened volatility like the one we are experiencing today. I'll leave you with this thought - \"Invest actively and manage risk proactively.\"Key Takeaway: I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.Thank you for reading, and happy investing. Please feel free to share any questions, thoughts, or concerns in the comments section below.This article was written by Ahan Vashi, for reference only.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910035871,"gmtCreate":1663538981193,"gmtModify":1676537283139,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910035871","repostId":"2268672370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268672370","pubTimestamp":1663460267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268672370?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 08:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268672370","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hike</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4166c0ac7b0bdf7caa1837ef618a67\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.</span></p><p>The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.</p><p>“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.</p><p>U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.</p><p>A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.</p><p>Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.</p><p>Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.</p><p>The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.</p><p>Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.</p><p>William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”</p><p>Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.</p><p>“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.</p><p>The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.</p><p>The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&amp;P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.</p><p>“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.</p><p>“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 08:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268672370","content_text":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937522847,"gmtCreate":1663469645189,"gmtModify":1676537275074,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937522847","repostId":"2268672370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268672370","pubTimestamp":1663460267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268672370?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 08:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268672370","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hike</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4166c0ac7b0bdf7caa1837ef618a67\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.</span></p><p>The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.</p><p>“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.</p><p>U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.</p><p>A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.</p><p>Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.</p><p>Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.</p><p>The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.</p><p>Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.</p><p>William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”</p><p>Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.</p><p>“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.</p><p>The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.</p><p>The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&amp;P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.</p><p>“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.</p><p>“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 08:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268672370","content_text":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934500471,"gmtCreate":1663279593493,"gmtModify":1676537240156,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578911332049824","idStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934500471","repostId":"1105919895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105919895","pubTimestamp":1663255268,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105919895?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105919895","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"$Nio(NIO)$ stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk i","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a> stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.</li><li>Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.</li><li>Given the downside risk if Nio fails to deliver, you may not want to chase this recent rally.</li></ul><p>Despite mixed quarterly results, Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock has been on the rise following its Sept. 7 earnings release. The main factor behind this has been a spate of analyst upgrades for shares in the China-based electric vehicle (EV) maker.</p><p>Confidence is rising again that the company’s production ramp-up will result in a big jump in sales for the rest of 2022, and going into 2023. Yet before you decide to jump in, and chase its recent rally, it’s hardly a lock that results in the coming quarter will live up to today’s elevated hopes.</p><p>The ramp-up may still fail to produce results in line with expectations. This may cause the stock to give back recent gains. In the long term, Nio’s global expansion could also fall short of expectations. With high growth heavily priced in, it may not take much for today’s renewed bullishness to reverse.</p><h3>Why NIO Stock Has Surged Post-Earnings</h3><p>Nio may have beat on revenue for the second quarter, but the results were hardly much to get excited about. As expected, China’s pandemic shutdowns continued to decelerate growth, on a year-over-year basis, and especially on a sequential basis.</p><p>Even worse, the EV maker reported a higher-than-expected net loss. Compared to the prior year’s quarter, net losses per share were up 316.4%. Still, instead of reacting negatively to Q2 results, the market focused instead on the company’s outlook for Q3, which calls for a speeding back up of growth.</p><p>This resulted in a slight uptick for NIO stock right after earnings but analyst upgrades sent shares soaring. As InvestorPlace’s Eddie Pan reported Sep 12, two analysts (Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu, and BofA’s Ming-Hsun Lee) have reiterated their “buy” ratings, and have upped their price targets.</p><p>Both analysts are bullish deliveries will re-accelerate considerably during Q4. This is due to a combination of the production ramp-up, plus Nio’s launch of new vehicle models. Yet while the situation may be improving, it may not be to the extent implied by the stock’s latest spike.</p><h3>How Its Latest Uptick Could Reverse</h3><p>As buzz returns to NIO stock, it may seem that now’s the time to buy, ahead of a continued comeback. Unfortunately, there’s a lot to suggest that its latest surge may be short-lived in nature. With its move back above $20 per share, the market has now priced in a possible growth re-acceleration as a near-certainty.</p><p>For the stock to keep moving higher, or at the very least avoid moving lower, Nio needs to both hit its own Q3 deliveries projection, plus hit Q4 numbers in line with the sell side’s expectations. Hitting its Q3 target may be attainable. Its monthly delivery numbers since June have come in above 10,000. Q4, though, may be a taller order.</p><p>In order to meet Edison Yu’s 2022 estimate, Nio needs to deliver 57,000 vehicles between October and December. That’s nearly double projected Q3 deliveries.</p><p>With increased production, new models, and Chinese government incentives, this may seem like a cinch. However, other factors, like China’s economic slowdown, could somewhat counter these positives.</p><p>In turn, causing delivery numbers for the months ahead to fall short of expectations. Even if it’s a near miss, it may cause the stock to give back its recent gains.</p><h3>The Verdict on NIO Stock</h3><p>Nio stock earns a D rating in my Portfolio Grader. Beyond pulling back in the short term, shares could also keep performing poorly in the coming years. Long-term bulls believe high growth will continue. Even as growth in its home market returns, they are confident international expansion will keep it in high-growth mode.</p><p>But only time will tell whether its first big expansion overseas (in Europe) proves successful. It may face greater competition in the China market. In Europe, it faces not just market leader Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), but competition from incumbent European luxury brands as well.</p><p>Failure in Europe may result in it scrapping its North American expansion plans. Without global expansion, it will be difficult for Nio to sustain, much less grow, its current valuation.</p><p>Given the downside risk of it failing to deliver in the coming quarter, you may not want to chase the recent NIO stock rally.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105919895","content_text":"Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio fails to deliver, you may not want to chase this recent rally.Despite mixed quarterly results, Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock has been on the rise following its Sept. 7 earnings release. The main factor behind this has been a spate of analyst upgrades for shares in the China-based electric vehicle (EV) maker.Confidence is rising again that the company’s production ramp-up will result in a big jump in sales for the rest of 2022, and going into 2023. Yet before you decide to jump in, and chase its recent rally, it’s hardly a lock that results in the coming quarter will live up to today’s elevated hopes.The ramp-up may still fail to produce results in line with expectations. This may cause the stock to give back recent gains. In the long term, Nio’s global expansion could also fall short of expectations. With high growth heavily priced in, it may not take much for today’s renewed bullishness to reverse.Why NIO Stock Has Surged Post-EarningsNio may have beat on revenue for the second quarter, but the results were hardly much to get excited about. As expected, China’s pandemic shutdowns continued to decelerate growth, on a year-over-year basis, and especially on a sequential basis.Even worse, the EV maker reported a higher-than-expected net loss. Compared to the prior year’s quarter, net losses per share were up 316.4%. Still, instead of reacting negatively to Q2 results, the market focused instead on the company’s outlook for Q3, which calls for a speeding back up of growth.This resulted in a slight uptick for NIO stock right after earnings but analyst upgrades sent shares soaring. As InvestorPlace’s Eddie Pan reported Sep 12, two analysts (Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu, and BofA’s Ming-Hsun Lee) have reiterated their “buy” ratings, and have upped their price targets.Both analysts are bullish deliveries will re-accelerate considerably during Q4. This is due to a combination of the production ramp-up, plus Nio’s launch of new vehicle models. Yet while the situation may be improving, it may not be to the extent implied by the stock’s latest spike.How Its Latest Uptick Could ReverseAs buzz returns to NIO stock, it may seem that now’s the time to buy, ahead of a continued comeback. Unfortunately, there’s a lot to suggest that its latest surge may be short-lived in nature. With its move back above $20 per share, the market has now priced in a possible growth re-acceleration as a near-certainty.For the stock to keep moving higher, or at the very least avoid moving lower, Nio needs to both hit its own Q3 deliveries projection, plus hit Q4 numbers in line with the sell side’s expectations. Hitting its Q3 target may be attainable. Its monthly delivery numbers since June have come in above 10,000. Q4, though, may be a taller order.In order to meet Edison Yu’s 2022 estimate, Nio needs to deliver 57,000 vehicles between October and December. That’s nearly double projected Q3 deliveries.With increased production, new models, and Chinese government incentives, this may seem like a cinch. However, other factors, like China’s economic slowdown, could somewhat counter these positives.In turn, causing delivery numbers for the months ahead to fall short of expectations. Even if it’s a near miss, it may cause the stock to give back its recent gains.The Verdict on NIO StockNio stock earns a D rating in my Portfolio Grader. Beyond pulling back in the short term, shares could also keep performing poorly in the coming years. Long-term bulls believe high growth will continue. Even as growth in its home market returns, they are confident international expansion will keep it in high-growth mode.But only time will tell whether its first big expansion overseas (in Europe) proves successful. It may face greater competition in the China market. In Europe, it faces not just market leader Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), but competition from incumbent European luxury brands as well.Failure in Europe may result in it scrapping its North American expansion plans. Without global expansion, it will be difficult for Nio to sustain, much less grow, its current valuation.Given the downside risk of it failing to deliver in the coming quarter, you may not want to chase the recent NIO stock rally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9034091867,"gmtCreate":1647728532994,"gmtModify":1676534260260,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034091867","repostId":"2220777059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220777059","pubTimestamp":1647653153,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220777059?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-19 09:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: The Three-Headed Monster","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220777059","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryGarena, Sea’s only profitable segment, serves as a lifeline for its other two segments, but B","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Garena, Sea’s only profitable segment, serves as a lifeline for its other two segments, but Bookings are expected to fall sharply in FY2022.</li><li>In addition, Shopee&#39;s losses are widening. However, the e-commerce segment is expected to be self-funded by 2025. This is achievable as take rates are trending in the right direction.</li><li>SeaMoney is also gaining traction at an unprecedented pace, a monster lurking in the shadows. Investors should pay attention as this segment could serve as Sea&#39;s second cash cow.</li><li>With a net cash position of $5.9 billion and $(3.6) billion of estimated AEBITDA in FY2022, it won&#39;t be long before Sea requires another cash infusion.</li><li>Despite unprofitability risks, Sea has a strong brand, network effects, and barriers to entry moats. The stock is trading at the lowest multiple ever - it is worth a nibble at these prices.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b3290f2015840c5d8f754c01de8a85\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>undefined undefined/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I&#39;ve been following Sea Limited ADR (NYSE:SE) for quite some time now and the stock got me interested again given the recent 75% selloff. Today, I&#39;m doing a deep dive on the three-headed monster (and each of its heads) to see if the company is a good investment opportunity at these levels. Let&#39;s get started!</p><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>Sea is at the forefront of the internet revolution in developing regions. This had many investors buying into the growth story of the company, sending shares soaring high into the sun for the better part of 2020 and 2021. However, the stock has cratered back to sea amid concerns about the company&#39;s slowing growth, especially for its only cash cow, Garena. To make matters worse, Shopee&#39;s losses are also getting worse.</p><p>The Group&#39;s cash burn rate is still high, estimated to be $(3.6) billion in FY2022. With a net cash position of $5.9 billion, future capital raises are very likely.</p><p>On the bright side, Sea still has a long growth runway ahead, solidified by its leadership positions in Southeast Asia and Latin America. SeaMoney, although still unprofitable, could also emerge as Sea&#39;s second cash cow.</p><p>Despite unprofitability and competitive risks, Sea has strong competitive moats and it is trading at the cheapest valuation multiples since its IPO.</p><p>The three-headed monster is a Buy at these levels.</p><p><b>Value Proposition</b></p><p>Founded in Singapore in 2009, Sea has grown to become the leading consumer internet company in the world, with a substantial presence in the Southeast Asian region.</p><blockquote><b>Mission</b>: To better the lives of consumers and small businesses with technology.</blockquote><p>Sea is a holding company for three core businesses: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMoney. Sea&#39;s main value proposition is providing a vertically-integrated experience through its different core businesses.</p><p><b>Garena</b></p><p>Its digital entertainment division, Garena, was Sea&#39;s first business venture. In fact, Sea was originally named Garena Interactive Holding Limited before changing its name to Sea Limited in 2017.</p><p>Garena is one of the largest online games developers and publishers, releasing some of the most successful mobile and PC games over the last decade. For example, Garena&#39;s Free Fire, its self-developed mobile battle royale game, topped the global download charts for the last three years. According to data.ai, Free Fire also ranked second globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in 2021. In Southeast Asia and Latin America, Free Fire was the highest-grossing mobile game for ten consecutive quarters, and in the US for four consecutive quarters. Based on Sensor <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>&#39;s findings, Free Fire still holds the most downloads globally as of January 2022.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa392753c19f14d60ee0d992e58c3d2f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: SensorTower</span></p><p>Garena also exclusively licenses and publishes games from global partners and third-party developers. Some of these partners include Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), Activision (ATVI), and Arumgames. Games like Speed Drifters, Arena of Valor, and Fantasy Town fall into this category as they are co-developed with partners or licensed from partners.</p><p>In addition, Garena organizes some of the largest e-sports events from local tournaments to professional competitions at a global level. Moreover, Garena offers other entertainment content such as live-streaming, user chat, and online forums.</p><p><b>Shopee</b></p><p>Perhaps the most exciting business segment is Sea&#39;s mobile-centric e-commerce platform, Shopee. Launched in 2015, Shopee is now one of the fastest-growing e-commerce marketplaces with a strong presence in Southeast Asia, as well as growing recognition in Latin America and some European countries.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6649de846b2942b928a3f3e5d4035003\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Shopee</span></p><p>Through the Shopee platform, buyers can purchase items from sellers which are primarily small and medium businesses (or mom-and-pop stores). At the same time, larger, more established retailers like Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF), Microsoft (MSFT), or Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) can leverage Shopee&#39;s two premium shopping platforms, Shopee Mall and Shopee Premium.</p><p>Along with Shopee&#39;s e-commerce marketplace, Shopee also offers adjacent products and services for both buyers and sellers:</p><ul><li><b>Service by Shopee</b> - Value-added services for sellers such as integrated payment, logistics, fulfillment, seller support, inventory management, and online store operations.</li><li><b>BuyerProtection</b> - Consumer protection policies and procedures including seller verification, product listing screening, and dispute resolution. In addition, Shopee Guarantee reduces settlement risks by holding customers&#39; funds in a separate account until delivery is complete, where funds will be released to buyers.</li><li><b>Integrated Logistics Services</b>- Shopee partners with various local and regional third-party logistics service providers to provide a seamless last-mile delivery experience for both buyers and sellers. Shopee also has its own delivery service called Shopee Xpress.</li><li><b>Social Features</b> - Shopee also offers other social and gamification features, including Shopee Coins (virtual currency), Shopee Live (livestream), Shopee Games (in-app games), and Shopee Feed (similar to Instagram).</li><li><b>On-demand Services</b>- Shopee also recently launched on-demand services such as ShopeeFood, instant delivery, and groceries, competing directly with Grab (GRAB), Gojek, and Uber (UBER).</li></ul><p>Shopee&#39;s scale is unmatched and it is still growing at an unprecedented pace. According to data.ai, Shopee in Southeast Asia and Taiwan ranked first in average monthly active users and total time spent in the app in 2021. Shopee Indonesia, arguably Shopee&#39;s most important market, ranked first in the Shopping category. Shopee Brazil, which launched in October 2019, was also ranked first in the Shopping category. And globally, Shopee ranked first in the Shopping category, and is the #13 most downloaded app regardless of category, logging in 200+ million downloads in 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9c550b140720336e00cc78e954d184\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: SensorTower</span></p><p><b>SeaMoney</b></p><p>SeaMoney was launched in 2014 and is now one of the leading digital financial services providers in Sea&#39;s operating countries. SeaMoney offers mobile wallet services, payment processing, credit, and other digital financial services. These services are offered under SeaMoney&#39;s various brands including AirPay, ShopeePay, SPayLater, and other local brands depending on the country. SeaMoney was initially launched in Vietnam and Thailand but has since expanded to other regions.</p><p>Through SeaMoney&#39;s mobile wallet offerings, consumers and merchants have added flexibility in terms of payment options, whether through online or offline means. The launch of SPayLater, which is basically a &#34;buy now pay later&#34; payment option, enables consumers to purchase items without accessing credit. For those who are interested, I&#39;ve written a deep dive on Affirm (AFRM) where I discuss the main value propositions that BNPL provides.</p><p>SeaMoney has obtained bank licenses and government approvals to provide financial services in various countries. For example, Sea acquired Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi in Indonesia back in early 2021 as a push towards offering a digital banking solution. The company is now rebranded to SeaBank, which currently offers a high-yield savings account and virtual account.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c85c862195f86fe9d4f0f8c8beced6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: SeaBank Website</span></p><p>SeaMoney&#39;s main value proposition lies in offering a mobile wallet and payment solutions that are integrated with Sea&#39;s other businesses, namely Garena and Shopee, enabling consumers and merchants to transact seamlessly in one vertically-integrated platform.</p><p><b>Market Opportunity</b></p><p>Sea&#39;s market opportunity is predicated around the industry outlook of each of its business segments: mobile gaming, e-commerce, and fintech. Let&#39;s take a look at each industry that Sea operates in.</p><p>First, we have the mobile gaming industry. According to data.ai, Mobile Game Consumer Spend grew from $74 billion in 2018 to $116 billion in 2021, while Mobile Game Downloads grew from 63 billion in 2018 to 83 billion in 2021. Among the Top Genres by Downloads were Hypercasual games such as Hair Challenge and Water Sort Puzzle. However, the Top Genres by Consumer Spend belong to the Strategy, RPG, and Shooting categories where Garena specializes in. For example, Free Fire was the top Shooting game by revenue in Thailand, Brazil, Mexico, and the US, in 2021. Globally, however, it is still behind PUBG Mobile, which generates the bulk of its revenue from China.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72bda6df6bc2b7bdf8756d218f53185\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: SensorTower</span></p><p>According to Adjust, the mobile gaming industry is expected to reach $272 billion by 2030, which is about 1.5x of 2021&#39;s total figure. Given Garena&#39;s successes in monetizing its games, Garena should continue to enjoy gaming tailwinds in the foreseeable future, provided that its games remain in trend. This is also supported by Unity&#39;s findings that the APAC region is the fastest-growing regional market, a market that Garena dominates in.</p><p>Moving on to e-commerce, we all know that e-commerce is growing rapidly and that its market share as a whole will continue to trend up from here. This is especially true for the Southeast Asian region where internet and smartphone adoption continues to increase by the day. Based on the e-Conomy SEA report, Southeast Asia now has 440 million internet users, up from 360 million in 2019. Its total population is about 589 million.</p><p>Internet Gross Merchandise Value, or GMV, for the region was $170 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach $360 billion by 2025 with e-commerce leading the charge. The shift to e-commerce is not only happening on the consumer side but also on the merchant side. Digital marketing tools, analytical tools, and digital payment solutions have accelerated business for merchants. Shopee&#39;s vertically-integrated platform also makes it easy for merchants in these developing countries to set up shop, distribute goods, and accept payments in a single platform.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fcb903aed7c0ec901fc83c4f25f18b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: e-Conomy SEA 2021</span></p><p>Furthermore, Sea has recently expanded its e-commerce operations to other regions such as Latin America and Europe, which further expands its market opportunity.</p><p>Lastly, we have the fintech industry pertaining to SeaMoney. In my <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> (PYPL) deep dive, I discussed the growth of mobile wallets as a payment method in both online and offline transactions. The shift to a cashless and cardless society is inevitable and that is also true for Sea&#39;s markets.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47ec896a6208b6023ae89f654704bbc7\" tg-width=\"1261\" tg-height=\"706\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Ark Invest Big Ideas 2022</span></p><p>As you can see below, mobile wallets continue to gain traction in Southeast Asia. In addition, 92% of digital merchants intend to maintain usage or increase usage of digital payments in the next 1 to 2 years. ShopeePay and SeaMoney&#39;s other brands will benefit from this trend. Also of important note, SeaMoney&#39;s expansion to buy now pay later with SPayLater will be a key GMV and revenue driver for the segment. These are the reasons why some investors are so bullish on SeaMoney and why SeaMoney is a monster lurking in the shadows.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb814b800c3121e3fb8cd0913f239d5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: e-Conomy SEA 2021</span></p><p>As you can see, Sea is at the forefront of three megatrends which should propel the business forward from here. Also, combining the different verticals in the same platform would present a significant synergistic opportunity as Sea establishes itself as a SuperApp in the making.</p><p><b>Revenue Model</b></p><p>As mentioned previously, Sea operates three main business segments.</p><p><b>Digital Entertainment</b></p><p>Garena operates a freemium model whereby users can download and play games for free. The company generates revenue by selling in-game virtual items such as clothing, weaponry, or equipment.</p><p>Investors should take note of how revenue is recognized for this segment. According to Sea&#39;s 10-K:</p><blockquote>Proceeds from these sales are initially recognized as “Advances from customers” and subsequently reclassified to “Deferred revenue” when the users make in-game purchases of the virtual currencies or virtual items within the games operated by the Company and the in-game purchases are no longer refundable.</blockquote><p>Garena also licenses games from other game developers. Revenue is generated based on revenue-sharing/royalty agreements with these developers. Revenue is recognized over the performance obligation period.</p><blockquote>Such delivery obligation period is determined in accordance with the estimated average lifespan of the virtual goods sold or estimated average lifespan of the paying users of the said games or similar games.</blockquote><p><b>E-commerce</b></p><p>Shopee generates revenue through a marketplace model. Sellers on the platform pay Shopee based on paid advertisement services, transaction-based fees, logistics services, and other value-added services.</p><p>Shopee also generates revenue from goods sold directly by Shopee, which the company purchases in bulk from manufacturers or third-party suppliers.</p><p><b>Digital Financial Services</b></p><p>SeaMoney revenue consists of:</p><ul><li>Interest and fees from loans granted to commercial customers</li><li>Interest and fees from Sea&#39;s consumer credit business such as SPayLater</li><li>Commissions charged to merchants when a customer pays using SeaMoney&#39;s mobile wallet</li></ul><p><b>Income Statement</b></p><p>Let&#39;s analyze each of the business segments and then look at the entire Group as a whole.</p><p><b>Digital Entertainment</b></p><p>Garena Revenue saw a 104% increase YoY in Q4. For the full year, Garena Revenue was up 114% YoY.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/998dfbcf3f3dba11b8f8722710c36ba4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The rapid increase in Revenue was primarily due to recognition of accumulated deferred revenue from previous quarters. Bookings—which is essentially GAAP Revenue plus the change in digital entertainment deferred revenue —actually dropped for the first time QoQ and it is now lower than Revenue. This means that gamers are spending less on in-virtual items which will lead to lower Revenue recognized in subsequent quarters. As you can see, Bookings is in a massive deceleration.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06de5e6066b66cd5596a445cd912c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The drop in Bookings was due to fewer gamers in the platform as the economy reopens and people spend more time outdoors, at school, or in the office. Quarterly Active Users, or QAUs, grew only 7% in Q4 to 652 million, compared to Q3&#39;s QAUs of 729 million.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5bdd570a9eb859a9fef8569c9fad10a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>As a result, Quarterly Paying Users, or QPUs, decelerated as well, which led to lower Bookings. Q4 QPUs was 77 million compared to Q3&#39;s 93 million.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/092c4a2f47b9336f2753b4548707b39f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The markets reacted negatively to this slowdown in Garena growth as the gaming business acts as the lifeline for Sea&#39;s two other segments. As you can see, Garena is a high-margin business, producing Adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 billion in FY2021. Operating Margin is very high at 61% in Q4. AEBITDA margin, on the other hand, is trending downwards as QoQ adds in Bookings wither.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f28c9f35ee55afb5c7d170a80d26ebf2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>As such, the slowdown in growth for Garena is scaring investors away as it may not provide sufficient cash flow to fund the continued growth of Shopee and SeaMoney.</p><p><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p>Shopee GMV continues its upward march as e-commerce continues to gain traction in Shopee&#39;s existing and newer markets. However, we&#39;re also seeing a deceleration in growth due to tough YoY comps. GMV in FY2021 was $62.5 billion, an increase of 77%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f657f7cacc9e00bc57df0e913fdb9ae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>GMV growth was also due to an increase in Orders in the Shopee platform, which totaled 6.1 billion in FY2021, an increase of 117%. Average Order Value, or AOV, however, is trending downwards. This may be perceived negatively as processing more lower-AOV orders meant higher logistical expenses and thus lower margins per order.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fbc7f044de03ec379f262a5bfcdf331\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The increase in GMV translated to higher Shopee Revenue, which grew faster than GMV. Shopee Revenue grew 136% to $5.1 billion in FY2021, as compared to GMV growth of 77%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27710dc2140a6d139900819f51bd688a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The faster growth in Revenue was due to Shopee&#39;s increasing take rate, which displays Shopee&#39;s ability to monetize its marketplace platform. This is one of the only few positive developments coming out of the most recent earnings update.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4267bc5d33a2153e8624f73ed71540\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Despite the improving Revenue and take rate, Shopee is still suffering huge losses and it is mounting with each subsequent quarter, primarily due to the company expanding into new markets. FY2021 Shopee AEBITDA was $(2.6) billion at a -50% margin. Recall that Garena AEBITDA was $2.7 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9d27cef61bc9a9058233f7eccc5eaa1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>AEBITDA per Order has been improving, although it flat-lined in the last few quarters. Again, this is due to the company aggressively expanding into new markets. For example, in Q4, Shopee Brazil recorded 140+ million gross orders with a $70+ million Revenue, up 400% and 326%, respectively. However, AEBITDA per Order in Brazil is still negative at $(2) per Order, despite being a 40% improvement from last year. As such, it is still a far cry from the overall AEBITDA per Order of $(0.45).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c0d6aa930a81ea4fc153b7134dbf9d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>On the bright side, in Southeast Asia and Taiwan, Q4 AEBITDA per Order before &#34;allocation of the headquarters’ common expenses&#34; was $(0.15), an improvement from last year&#39;s $(0.21). This shows that there is certainly hope for Shopee to be AEBITDA positive soon, which management has pointed out during the Q4 earnings call:</p><blockquote>We currently expect Shopee to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA before HQ cost allocation in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by this year. We also expect SeaMoney to achieve positive cash flow by next year. As a result, we currently expect that by 2025 cash generated by Shopee and SeaMoney proactively will enable these two businesses to substantially self-fund their own long-term growth.</blockquote><p><b>Digital Financial Services</b></p><p>SeaMoney&#39;s Mobile Wallet Total Payment Volume grew 120% YoY to $17.2 billion in FY2021 due to the increasing adoption of mobile wallets in the region.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fa5ef6efa513d9040963fda42b4b9f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The growth in TPV was largely driven by the growth in QAUs. As shown below, the total ending QAUs in Q4 grew 90% YoY to 45.8 million users.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9397aec066366f40ec92c24187347a44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The real exciting part is that Revenue grew much faster than TPV and QAUs. SeaMoney Revenue is growing at a blistering pace, locking in high triple-digit growth rates over the last few years. FY2021 SeaMoney Revenue was $470 million, which is an increase of 673% from the previous year. This is due to take rates increasing from less than 1% in FY2020 to almost 4% by the end of the latest quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcaf6046cf3c27e00b233a8428eb2d75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Furthermore, in Indonesia, over 20% of the QAUs have used more than one SeaMoney product or service, which includes credit services, digital banking, and insurance. As SeaMoney introduces more offerings, revenue should accelerate meaningfully as average revenue per user increases when people use additional products.</p><p>As SeaMoney continues to gain scale, the segment will enjoy better unit economics. As shown below, while SeaMoney&#39;s AEBITDA is still in deeply negative territories, AEBITDA Margins has continued to trend towards profitability. Management also expects SeaMoney to be cash flow positive by next year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f0d5a1800fef748694417e8cb8fc9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>This is the segment that investors should pay special attention to, given that it has the potential to be Sea&#39;s second cash cow. For example, PayPal has Operating Margins of 20%+, which could be SeaMoney&#39;s long-term margin profile.</p><p><b>Group</b></p><p>With that said, let&#39;s take a look at how the business is doing as a whole.</p><p>FY2021 Revenue was $10.0 billion, an increase of 128% YoY. Due to the law of large numbers and tough YoY comps, Revenue growth should decelerate from here.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38de60bd773f3ef7afc4b2e28aa1c08f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Here, we can see how Revenue is distributed across the different segments.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a86e59478db8a3a4fdc85897f24410e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>What&#39;s encouraging is that Gross Profit Margins continue to trend upwards as the company gains economies of scale, even accounting for Shopee&#39;s aggressive expansion into new markets. FY2021 Gross Profit was $3.9 billion, up 189% YoY.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd978ba4047cc6e20ac6086ba8420a8f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Operating Expenses, however, remain elevated as management forgoes short-term profitability for long-term market dominance. FY2021 Total Operating Expenses were $5.5 billion. Below shows the different components of Operating Expenses as a percentage of Revenue.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbdbde2c2ae744f36f8168ed32f94d62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Most of the Operating Expenses were used for Sales &amp; Marketing purposes. Unsurprisingly, Shopee had the highest S&amp;M burn rate. Discounts, cashback, celebrity promotions... they&#39;re everywhere.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5253f186120da17c4cd901e5c442bd1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>As a result, Operating Profit Margins is still negative, although it is trending in the right direction.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a27b7833551107397c44acefc5ad2475\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>AEBITDA, on the other hand, is plunging. This is due to Garena&#39;s falling Bookings and Shoppe&#39;s widening losses. AEBITDA for FY2021 was $(594) million, compared to FY2020 positive AEBITDA of $107 million. This is probably the most concerning figure for investors as such a high cash burn rate is unsustainable, which may also lead to additional capital raises that are dilutive to shareholders.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89fb95f74e23e85f8932870c0190bee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>The guidance did not help either. Garena Bookings is expected to fall to just $3 billion, which is $1.3 billion lower than FY2021&#39;s number. Management blamed the reopening of the economy as well as the ban of Free Fire in India for the expected drop in Bookings. Assuming a modest 50% AEBITDA margin, Garena would bring in just $1.5 billion of AEBITDA for Sea in FY2022.</p><p>On the other side, the other two segments are expected to continue with their immense pace of growth — Shopee and SeaMoney are expected to grow by 76% and 155%, respectively. If we assume a (50)% AEBITDA margin for both segments, Shopee and SeaMoney is expected to burn a total of about $(5.1) billion of AEBITDA. Adding Garena&#39;s estimated AEBITDA of $1.5 billion, Sea, as a Group, is expected to burn $(3.6) billion in FY2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae5e9399a838e5f841dcccaffbe673d8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited FY2021 Q4 Investor Presentation</span></p><p>Because Garena is such an important piece of Shopee&#39;s and SeaMoney&#39;s growth story, a deceleration in Garena&#39;s business had investors reacting so negatively to Sea&#39;s latest earnings release, as now, the gaming business is incapable of covering the massive losses incurred by the other two business segments.</p><p><b>Balance Sheet</b></p><p>Sea&#39;s balance sheet position as of year-end FY2021 is at about $10.2 billion of Cash and Short Term Investments. While this may show that Sea has a substantial cushion against its short-term cash burn rate, its net cash position paints a different picture.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc30ee494abc2eda3b75434b96e4a66b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited FY2021 Q4 Investor Presentation</span></p><p>Adjusting for Sea&#39;s debt, Sea ended the year with a net cash position of around $5.9 billion. A substantial amount of its total debt comes from its recent issuance of 0.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026. The notes were issued when the stock was trading at $318 per share back in September and the initial conversion price is set at $477 per share. So, yes... conversion in the next 2 to 3 years is very unlikely.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d3d0030e6518cc4198245f624cc75e1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>With net cash of $5.9 billion and $(3.6) billion of estimated AEBITDA in FY2022, it won&#39;t be long before Sea requires another cash infusion. Therefore, if the high cash burn rate persists for the next 2 to 3 years, investors face a major risk of increasing financial leverage and/or dilution in the form of equity raises.</p><p><b>Cash Flow Statement</b></p><p>Here is what cash flow looks like over the last few quarters. Notice how Operating Cash Flow turned negative in the last quarter. Most of the cash also comes from Financing activities.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0aba061277a1410bb9f3dc176ea0115\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>Unlike other high-flying growth companies, Sea&#39;s Share-Based Compensation expenses are relatively low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81fa229682c8880d6edd35535ef6a747\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p><b>Competitive Moats</b></p><p>Based on my research and analysis, I identified three key competitive moats for Sea: brand, network effects, and barriers to entry. I used to think that Sea has cost advantages but as Garena becomes a smaller part of the overall business, and as losses continue to worsen, I have reason to believe that Sea no longer holds that moat.</p><p><b>Brand</b></p><p>As discussed in previous sections, Garena&#39;s games, particularly Free Fire, have consistently ranked as the most downloaded mobile game in the world. Additionally, the Shopee app has gained cross-border stardom and is now regarded as the most downloaded or fastest-trending shopping App in the countries it operates in. Lastly, SeaMoney is also gaining traction with banking licenses granted in various countries that should increase brand value and trust.</p><p><b>Network Effects</b></p><p>The sheer amount of app downloads leads to powerful network effects. Garena has 652 million QAUs, which is about 8% of the world&#39;s population. Shopee recorded 200+ million app downloads in FY2021 alone. SeaMoney QAUs topped 45.8 million in Q4 and it is still in the early stages of adoption.</p><p>With all these users in the Sea platform, cross-selling new products or services should be easier as Sea continues to scale. One such example is Shopee Brazil and Free Fire where each platform is encouraging consumers to use the other. As Sea continues to innovate and offer better experiences for its customers, the ecosystem gets bigger and tighter, leading to powerful network effects.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c641ac08707cc868b9e6004e2deaf950\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Shopee Brazil</span></p><p><b>Barriers To Entry</b></p><p>I believe each of Sea&#39;s core businesses is operating in a winner-takes-most environment with high barriers to entry.</p><p>The mobile gaming environment requires the most talented developers to launch blockbuster games. Garena&#39;s Free Fire is certainly a blockbuster game and time in Free Fire&#39;s game means time away from other mobile games.</p><p>Just like how Amazon (AMZN) dominates in the US, the e-commerce landscape in Southeast Asia and Latin America is dominated by a few players, such as Shopee, Tokopedia, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a> (MELI). The scale and unit economics that these players have achieved makes it unsustainable for new entrants to compete with them.</p><p>Banking and fintech is also a highly-regulated environment. Furthermore, consumers prefer to have just one mobile wallet, such as ShopeePay, as opposed to owning several different fintech applications.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Based on my sum-of-the-parts and comparable company valuation analysis, Sea looks to be slightly undervalued with 19% upside potential. Of course, comparables are not perfect but based on this, we can gauge where Sea stands among peers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2400cd917e5f6ce8c47ef74a8062093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author&#39;s Analysis</span></p><p>On the flip side, Sea looks extremely cheap on a historical basis. In terms of EV/Sales, Sea is trading at the lowest valuation since its IPO, trading at just 4.2x forward sales.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bed1fd805a89523bbb8fa982bee40079\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p>In terms of EV/Gross Profit, Sea is trading even cheaper than its March 2020 lows.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf589a808c84131e9c36aa7b65a5129\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p>The valuation compression is warranted given that the company flew too close to the sun and now it is cratering back to the sea — not just for Sea, but almost all growth stocks took a beating. Growth is also slowing down and the macroeconomic environment looks gloomier than ever. However, this is not the end of the world; I think the markets are overreacting. Diversion from the mean goes both ways — perhaps, current prices present a good margin of safety for long-term investors.</p><p><b>Catalysts</b></p><ul><li><b>Successful International Expansion</b> — Shopee has been successful in replicating its playbook from Southeast Asia to Brazil. Recently, Shopee launched operations in India, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Poland, and Spain. If Shopee can take substantial market share in these new regions, Shopee&#39;s growth could turn exponential.</li><li><b>The Metaverse</b> — Sea&#39;s withering gaming division needs to be revitalized. New games and features could definitely provide the boost that it needs. For example, the metaverse is an exciting opportunity and Garena could introduce this concept to its 600+ million QAUs. Sea AI Lab (SAIL) and Sea Capital are two ventures that could accelerate the company into emerging industries, including the metaverse.</li></ul><blockquote>We will continue to encourage user-generated content by enhancing greater features and accessibility. We believe that a strong user reception to Craftland is a positive indicator of the initial success to encourage user participation in content creation and to build Free Fire into an increasingly open platform and is well aligned with major emerging industry trends such as metaverse.</blockquote><ul><li><b>Regional SuperApp</b> — Although this concept has yet to be discussed by management, launching a regional SuperApp could enhance user engagement to new levels. For example, imagine Shopee users being able to play games, shop, order food delivery, pay for services, transfer money, invest, all under one app. Imagine users being able to convert their deposited funds in ShopeePay, into ShopeeCoins, and use it to perform cross-border transactions.</li><li><b>Continued Growth In SeaMoney</b> — SeaMoney is still in its early stages and continued adoption of Sea&#39;s digital financial services offerings will be a strong addition to Sea&#39;s bull thesis. SPayLater has real potential to disrupt the consumer credit industry. SeaBank and ShopeePay have the opportunity to capture digital wallet, digital banking, and cashless society trends.</li><li><b>Free Fire India Ban Lift</b>— Garena&#39;s weak guidance factored in the headwinds coming from the ban in India. If the ban is lifted, the stock may react positively as much of Sea&#39;s cash burn problems may be eliminated.</li></ul><p><b>Risks</b></p><ul><li><b>The Pressure to Launch Blockbuster Games</b>— There will come a time when Free Fire will be dethroned as the most-played and most-downloaded game. That is just how the gaming business works. This puts a substantial risk on the cash flow generation potential of Garena. Launching blockbuster games is never easy and it requires many trials and errors along the way. For me, I would like to see Garena shift to a gaming franchise model where the company launches an updated version of an existing game every year or two, which presents a more stable and recurring revenue stream for the company. An example would be FIFA or Call of Duty.</li><li><b>Shopee India Ban</b> — With Free Fire banned in India, there&#39;s also the potential for Shoppe to be banned as well.</li><li><b>Failure to Gain Traction in International Markets</b>— Shopee pulled out of France in early March, an indication that Shoppe&#39;s business model is not replicable in other countries, especially in more developed regions. Shopee Poland and Spain may be next on the exit list as they hold a close resemblance to France.</li><li><b>Geopolitical Risks</b>— Tencent, a Chinese company, has an 18.7% equity stake in Sea. Sanctions, bans, and other restrictions on Chinese companies, given the current geopolitical environment, could spell trouble for Sea. Tencent may have to cut exposure on Sea or even dissolve its developing-publishing partnership with Garena.</li><li><b>Local Competition</b>— Local champions operating in their respective markets cannot be ignored. These include GoTo in Indonesia, MercadoLibre in Latin America, and Flipkart in India.</li></ul><p>In addition, there&#39;s a certain level of pride for consumers to see their native-born companies succeed. I&#39;m Indonesian, and it makes me really happy to see GoTo grow and grow.</p><p>GoTo, the holding company of both Indonesian tech darlings Gojek and Tokopedia, recently announced its plan to IPO in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Here&#39;s a glance of GoTo&#39;s stats for the 12-months ended 30 September 2021:</p><ul><li>Valuation: $26.2 billion to $28.8 billion</li><li>GMV: $28.8 billion</li><li>Revenue: $1 billion</li><li>Gross Orders: 2 billion</li><li>Annual Transacting Users: 55 million</li><li>Driver Partners: 2.5 million</li><li>Merchants: 14 million</li></ul><p>The point is that there are big-time local players operating in Sea&#39;s markets that investors should never ignore. Here&#39;s a little snippet from my previous Shopee article:</p><blockquote>But with the GoTo merger, Indonesia could potentially extinguish the orange flame that charred its forest for many years. Now, GoTo could finally reclaim a good chunk of its territory that was lost to waves of competition, especially from Shopee. GoTo could finally gain more ground as the roots grew even stronger with the merger, fertilized with the synergies of value propositions, logistics, payments, and banking solutions.</blockquote><blockquote>Meanwhile, Sea Limited&#39;s stock continues to soar, ignoring the titan of an elephant in the room. And because of GoTo&#39;s integration, Shopee&#39;s vertically-integrated business model doesn&#39;t look like a strong competitive advantage anymore.</blockquote><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Each of Sea&#39;s core businesses is in hypergrowth mode, propelled by megatrends in the mobile gaming, e-commerce, and fintech industry. Management understands these opportunities and therefore, is sacrificing short-term profitability for long-term market dominance. Despite being a larger business, Sea still has a massive growth runway ahead.</p><p>That is not to say that unprofitability and competition risks can and should be ignored. The biggest concern for investors is the company&#39;s unsustainable cash burn rate, which will likely lead to further capital raises in the near future.</p><p>Nonetheless, the long-term growth thesis for the three-headed monster remains intact. Strong brand, network effects, and barriers to entry moats should support the business going forward. In addition, shares of Sea are trading at the lowest valuation multiples ever, which presents a good margin of safety for an entry at these prices.</p><p>Thank you for reading my Sea Limited deep dive. If you enjoyed the article, please let me know in the comment section down below. If you have any suggestions or feedback, don&#39;t hesitate to share your thoughts as well.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: The Three-Headed Monster</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: The Three-Headed Monster\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-19 09:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496480-sea-limited-the-three-headed-monster><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryGarena, Sea’s only profitable segment, serves as a lifeline for its other two segments, but Bookings are expected to fall sharply in FY2022.In addition, Shopee's losses are widening. However, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496480-sea-limited-the-three-headed-monster\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496480-sea-limited-the-three-headed-monster","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2220777059","content_text":"SummaryGarena, Sea’s only profitable segment, serves as a lifeline for its other two segments, but Bookings are expected to fall sharply in FY2022.In addition, Shopee's losses are widening. However, the e-commerce segment is expected to be self-funded by 2025. This is achievable as take rates are trending in the right direction.SeaMoney is also gaining traction at an unprecedented pace, a monster lurking in the shadows. Investors should pay attention as this segment could serve as Sea's second cash cow.With a net cash position of $5.9 billion and $(3.6) billion of estimated AEBITDA in FY2022, it won't be long before Sea requires another cash infusion.Despite unprofitability risks, Sea has a strong brand, network effects, and barriers to entry moats. The stock is trading at the lowest multiple ever - it is worth a nibble at these prices.undefined undefined/iStock via Getty ImagesI've been following Sea Limited ADR (NYSE:SE) for quite some time now and the stock got me interested again given the recent 75% selloff. Today, I'm doing a deep dive on the three-headed monster (and each of its heads) to see if the company is a good investment opportunity at these levels. Let's get started!Investment ThesisSea is at the forefront of the internet revolution in developing regions. This had many investors buying into the growth story of the company, sending shares soaring high into the sun for the better part of 2020 and 2021. However, the stock has cratered back to sea amid concerns about the company's slowing growth, especially for its only cash cow, Garena. To make matters worse, Shopee's losses are also getting worse.The Group's cash burn rate is still high, estimated to be $(3.6) billion in FY2022. With a net cash position of $5.9 billion, future capital raises are very likely.On the bright side, Sea still has a long growth runway ahead, solidified by its leadership positions in Southeast Asia and Latin America. SeaMoney, although still unprofitable, could also emerge as Sea's second cash cow.Despite unprofitability and competitive risks, Sea has strong competitive moats and it is trading at the cheapest valuation multiples since its IPO.The three-headed monster is a Buy at these levels.Value PropositionFounded in Singapore in 2009, Sea has grown to become the leading consumer internet company in the world, with a substantial presence in the Southeast Asian region.Mission: To better the lives of consumers and small businesses with technology.Sea is a holding company for three core businesses: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMoney. Sea's main value proposition is providing a vertically-integrated experience through its different core businesses.GarenaIts digital entertainment division, Garena, was Sea's first business venture. In fact, Sea was originally named Garena Interactive Holding Limited before changing its name to Sea Limited in 2017.Garena is one of the largest online games developers and publishers, releasing some of the most successful mobile and PC games over the last decade. For example, Garena's Free Fire, its self-developed mobile battle royale game, topped the global download charts for the last three years. According to data.ai, Free Fire also ranked second globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in 2021. In Southeast Asia and Latin America, Free Fire was the highest-grossing mobile game for ten consecutive quarters, and in the US for four consecutive quarters. Based on Sensor Tower's findings, Free Fire still holds the most downloads globally as of January 2022.Source: SensorTowerGarena also exclusively licenses and publishes games from global partners and third-party developers. Some of these partners include Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), Activision (ATVI), and Arumgames. Games like Speed Drifters, Arena of Valor, and Fantasy Town fall into this category as they are co-developed with partners or licensed from partners.In addition, Garena organizes some of the largest e-sports events from local tournaments to professional competitions at a global level. Moreover, Garena offers other entertainment content such as live-streaming, user chat, and online forums.ShopeePerhaps the most exciting business segment is Sea's mobile-centric e-commerce platform, Shopee. Launched in 2015, Shopee is now one of the fastest-growing e-commerce marketplaces with a strong presence in Southeast Asia, as well as growing recognition in Latin America and some European countries.Source: ShopeeThrough the Shopee platform, buyers can purchase items from sellers which are primarily small and medium businesses (or mom-and-pop stores). At the same time, larger, more established retailers like Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF), Microsoft (MSFT), or Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) can leverage Shopee's two premium shopping platforms, Shopee Mall and Shopee Premium.Along with Shopee's e-commerce marketplace, Shopee also offers adjacent products and services for both buyers and sellers:Service by Shopee - Value-added services for sellers such as integrated payment, logistics, fulfillment, seller support, inventory management, and online store operations.BuyerProtection - Consumer protection policies and procedures including seller verification, product listing screening, and dispute resolution. In addition, Shopee Guarantee reduces settlement risks by holding customers' funds in a separate account until delivery is complete, where funds will be released to buyers.Integrated Logistics Services- Shopee partners with various local and regional third-party logistics service providers to provide a seamless last-mile delivery experience for both buyers and sellers. Shopee also has its own delivery service called Shopee Xpress.Social Features - Shopee also offers other social and gamification features, including Shopee Coins (virtual currency), Shopee Live (livestream), Shopee Games (in-app games), and Shopee Feed (similar to Instagram).On-demand Services- Shopee also recently launched on-demand services such as ShopeeFood, instant delivery, and groceries, competing directly with Grab (GRAB), Gojek, and Uber (UBER).Shopee's scale is unmatched and it is still growing at an unprecedented pace. According to data.ai, Shopee in Southeast Asia and Taiwan ranked first in average monthly active users and total time spent in the app in 2021. Shopee Indonesia, arguably Shopee's most important market, ranked first in the Shopping category. Shopee Brazil, which launched in October 2019, was also ranked first in the Shopping category. And globally, Shopee ranked first in the Shopping category, and is the #13 most downloaded app regardless of category, logging in 200+ million downloads in 2021.Source: SensorTowerSeaMoneySeaMoney was launched in 2014 and is now one of the leading digital financial services providers in Sea's operating countries. SeaMoney offers mobile wallet services, payment processing, credit, and other digital financial services. These services are offered under SeaMoney's various brands including AirPay, ShopeePay, SPayLater, and other local brands depending on the country. SeaMoney was initially launched in Vietnam and Thailand but has since expanded to other regions.Through SeaMoney's mobile wallet offerings, consumers and merchants have added flexibility in terms of payment options, whether through online or offline means. The launch of SPayLater, which is basically a \"buy now pay later\" payment option, enables consumers to purchase items without accessing credit. For those who are interested, I've written a deep dive on Affirm (AFRM) where I discuss the main value propositions that BNPL provides.SeaMoney has obtained bank licenses and government approvals to provide financial services in various countries. For example, Sea acquired Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi in Indonesia back in early 2021 as a push towards offering a digital banking solution. The company is now rebranded to SeaBank, which currently offers a high-yield savings account and virtual account.Source: SeaBank WebsiteSeaMoney's main value proposition lies in offering a mobile wallet and payment solutions that are integrated with Sea's other businesses, namely Garena and Shopee, enabling consumers and merchants to transact seamlessly in one vertically-integrated platform.Market OpportunitySea's market opportunity is predicated around the industry outlook of each of its business segments: mobile gaming, e-commerce, and fintech. Let's take a look at each industry that Sea operates in.First, we have the mobile gaming industry. According to data.ai, Mobile Game Consumer Spend grew from $74 billion in 2018 to $116 billion in 2021, while Mobile Game Downloads grew from 63 billion in 2018 to 83 billion in 2021. Among the Top Genres by Downloads were Hypercasual games such as Hair Challenge and Water Sort Puzzle. However, the Top Genres by Consumer Spend belong to the Strategy, RPG, and Shooting categories where Garena specializes in. For example, Free Fire was the top Shooting game by revenue in Thailand, Brazil, Mexico, and the US, in 2021. Globally, however, it is still behind PUBG Mobile, which generates the bulk of its revenue from China.Source: SensorTowerAccording to Adjust, the mobile gaming industry is expected to reach $272 billion by 2030, which is about 1.5x of 2021's total figure. Given Garena's successes in monetizing its games, Garena should continue to enjoy gaming tailwinds in the foreseeable future, provided that its games remain in trend. This is also supported by Unity's findings that the APAC region is the fastest-growing regional market, a market that Garena dominates in.Moving on to e-commerce, we all know that e-commerce is growing rapidly and that its market share as a whole will continue to trend up from here. This is especially true for the Southeast Asian region where internet and smartphone adoption continues to increase by the day. Based on the e-Conomy SEA report, Southeast Asia now has 440 million internet users, up from 360 million in 2019. Its total population is about 589 million.Internet Gross Merchandise Value, or GMV, for the region was $170 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach $360 billion by 2025 with e-commerce leading the charge. The shift to e-commerce is not only happening on the consumer side but also on the merchant side. Digital marketing tools, analytical tools, and digital payment solutions have accelerated business for merchants. Shopee's vertically-integrated platform also makes it easy for merchants in these developing countries to set up shop, distribute goods, and accept payments in a single platform.Source: e-Conomy SEA 2021Furthermore, Sea has recently expanded its e-commerce operations to other regions such as Latin America and Europe, which further expands its market opportunity.Lastly, we have the fintech industry pertaining to SeaMoney. In my PayPal (PYPL) deep dive, I discussed the growth of mobile wallets as a payment method in both online and offline transactions. The shift to a cashless and cardless society is inevitable and that is also true for Sea's markets.Source: Ark Invest Big Ideas 2022As you can see below, mobile wallets continue to gain traction in Southeast Asia. In addition, 92% of digital merchants intend to maintain usage or increase usage of digital payments in the next 1 to 2 years. ShopeePay and SeaMoney's other brands will benefit from this trend. Also of important note, SeaMoney's expansion to buy now pay later with SPayLater will be a key GMV and revenue driver for the segment. These are the reasons why some investors are so bullish on SeaMoney and why SeaMoney is a monster lurking in the shadows.Source: e-Conomy SEA 2021As you can see, Sea is at the forefront of three megatrends which should propel the business forward from here. Also, combining the different verticals in the same platform would present a significant synergistic opportunity as Sea establishes itself as a SuperApp in the making.Revenue ModelAs mentioned previously, Sea operates three main business segments.Digital EntertainmentGarena operates a freemium model whereby users can download and play games for free. The company generates revenue by selling in-game virtual items such as clothing, weaponry, or equipment.Investors should take note of how revenue is recognized for this segment. According to Sea's 10-K:Proceeds from these sales are initially recognized as “Advances from customers” and subsequently reclassified to “Deferred revenue” when the users make in-game purchases of the virtual currencies or virtual items within the games operated by the Company and the in-game purchases are no longer refundable.Garena also licenses games from other game developers. Revenue is generated based on revenue-sharing/royalty agreements with these developers. Revenue is recognized over the performance obligation period.Such delivery obligation period is determined in accordance with the estimated average lifespan of the virtual goods sold or estimated average lifespan of the paying users of the said games or similar games.E-commerceShopee generates revenue through a marketplace model. Sellers on the platform pay Shopee based on paid advertisement services, transaction-based fees, logistics services, and other value-added services.Shopee also generates revenue from goods sold directly by Shopee, which the company purchases in bulk from manufacturers or third-party suppliers.Digital Financial ServicesSeaMoney revenue consists of:Interest and fees from loans granted to commercial customersInterest and fees from Sea's consumer credit business such as SPayLaterCommissions charged to merchants when a customer pays using SeaMoney's mobile walletIncome StatementLet's analyze each of the business segments and then look at the entire Group as a whole.Digital EntertainmentGarena Revenue saw a 104% increase YoY in Q4. For the full year, Garena Revenue was up 114% YoY.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe rapid increase in Revenue was primarily due to recognition of accumulated deferred revenue from previous quarters. Bookings—which is essentially GAAP Revenue plus the change in digital entertainment deferred revenue —actually dropped for the first time QoQ and it is now lower than Revenue. This means that gamers are spending less on in-virtual items which will lead to lower Revenue recognized in subsequent quarters. As you can see, Bookings is in a massive deceleration.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe drop in Bookings was due to fewer gamers in the platform as the economy reopens and people spend more time outdoors, at school, or in the office. Quarterly Active Users, or QAUs, grew only 7% in Q4 to 652 million, compared to Q3's QAUs of 729 million.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisAs a result, Quarterly Paying Users, or QPUs, decelerated as well, which led to lower Bookings. Q4 QPUs was 77 million compared to Q3's 93 million.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe markets reacted negatively to this slowdown in Garena growth as the gaming business acts as the lifeline for Sea's two other segments. As you can see, Garena is a high-margin business, producing Adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 billion in FY2021. Operating Margin is very high at 61% in Q4. AEBITDA margin, on the other hand, is trending downwards as QoQ adds in Bookings wither.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisAs such, the slowdown in growth for Garena is scaring investors away as it may not provide sufficient cash flow to fund the continued growth of Shopee and SeaMoney.E-CommerceShopee GMV continues its upward march as e-commerce continues to gain traction in Shopee's existing and newer markets. However, we're also seeing a deceleration in growth due to tough YoY comps. GMV in FY2021 was $62.5 billion, an increase of 77%.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisGMV growth was also due to an increase in Orders in the Shopee platform, which totaled 6.1 billion in FY2021, an increase of 117%. Average Order Value, or AOV, however, is trending downwards. This may be perceived negatively as processing more lower-AOV orders meant higher logistical expenses and thus lower margins per order.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe increase in GMV translated to higher Shopee Revenue, which grew faster than GMV. Shopee Revenue grew 136% to $5.1 billion in FY2021, as compared to GMV growth of 77%.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe faster growth in Revenue was due to Shopee's increasing take rate, which displays Shopee's ability to monetize its marketplace platform. This is one of the only few positive developments coming out of the most recent earnings update.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisDespite the improving Revenue and take rate, Shopee is still suffering huge losses and it is mounting with each subsequent quarter, primarily due to the company expanding into new markets. FY2021 Shopee AEBITDA was $(2.6) billion at a -50% margin. Recall that Garena AEBITDA was $2.7 billion.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisAEBITDA per Order has been improving, although it flat-lined in the last few quarters. Again, this is due to the company aggressively expanding into new markets. For example, in Q4, Shopee Brazil recorded 140+ million gross orders with a $70+ million Revenue, up 400% and 326%, respectively. However, AEBITDA per Order in Brazil is still negative at $(2) per Order, despite being a 40% improvement from last year. As such, it is still a far cry from the overall AEBITDA per Order of $(0.45).Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisOn the bright side, in Southeast Asia and Taiwan, Q4 AEBITDA per Order before \"allocation of the headquarters’ common expenses\" was $(0.15), an improvement from last year's $(0.21). This shows that there is certainly hope for Shopee to be AEBITDA positive soon, which management has pointed out during the Q4 earnings call:We currently expect Shopee to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA before HQ cost allocation in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by this year. We also expect SeaMoney to achieve positive cash flow by next year. As a result, we currently expect that by 2025 cash generated by Shopee and SeaMoney proactively will enable these two businesses to substantially self-fund their own long-term growth.Digital Financial ServicesSeaMoney's Mobile Wallet Total Payment Volume grew 120% YoY to $17.2 billion in FY2021 due to the increasing adoption of mobile wallets in the region.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe growth in TPV was largely driven by the growth in QAUs. As shown below, the total ending QAUs in Q4 grew 90% YoY to 45.8 million users.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe real exciting part is that Revenue grew much faster than TPV and QAUs. SeaMoney Revenue is growing at a blistering pace, locking in high triple-digit growth rates over the last few years. FY2021 SeaMoney Revenue was $470 million, which is an increase of 673% from the previous year. This is due to take rates increasing from less than 1% in FY2020 to almost 4% by the end of the latest quarter.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisFurthermore, in Indonesia, over 20% of the QAUs have used more than one SeaMoney product or service, which includes credit services, digital banking, and insurance. As SeaMoney introduces more offerings, revenue should accelerate meaningfully as average revenue per user increases when people use additional products.As SeaMoney continues to gain scale, the segment will enjoy better unit economics. As shown below, while SeaMoney's AEBITDA is still in deeply negative territories, AEBITDA Margins has continued to trend towards profitability. Management also expects SeaMoney to be cash flow positive by next year.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThis is the segment that investors should pay special attention to, given that it has the potential to be Sea's second cash cow. For example, PayPal has Operating Margins of 20%+, which could be SeaMoney's long-term margin profile.GroupWith that said, let's take a look at how the business is doing as a whole.FY2021 Revenue was $10.0 billion, an increase of 128% YoY. Due to the law of large numbers and tough YoY comps, Revenue growth should decelerate from here.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisHere, we can see how Revenue is distributed across the different segments.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisWhat's encouraging is that Gross Profit Margins continue to trend upwards as the company gains economies of scale, even accounting for Shopee's aggressive expansion into new markets. FY2021 Gross Profit was $3.9 billion, up 189% YoY.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisOperating Expenses, however, remain elevated as management forgoes short-term profitability for long-term market dominance. FY2021 Total Operating Expenses were $5.5 billion. Below shows the different components of Operating Expenses as a percentage of Revenue.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisMost of the Operating Expenses were used for Sales & Marketing purposes. Unsurprisingly, Shopee had the highest S&M burn rate. Discounts, cashback, celebrity promotions... they're everywhere.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisAs a result, Operating Profit Margins is still negative, although it is trending in the right direction.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisAEBITDA, on the other hand, is plunging. This is due to Garena's falling Bookings and Shoppe's widening losses. AEBITDA for FY2021 was $(594) million, compared to FY2020 positive AEBITDA of $107 million. This is probably the most concerning figure for investors as such a high cash burn rate is unsustainable, which may also lead to additional capital raises that are dilutive to shareholders.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisThe guidance did not help either. Garena Bookings is expected to fall to just $3 billion, which is $1.3 billion lower than FY2021's number. Management blamed the reopening of the economy as well as the ban of Free Fire in India for the expected drop in Bookings. Assuming a modest 50% AEBITDA margin, Garena would bring in just $1.5 billion of AEBITDA for Sea in FY2022.On the other side, the other two segments are expected to continue with their immense pace of growth — Shopee and SeaMoney are expected to grow by 76% and 155%, respectively. If we assume a (50)% AEBITDA margin for both segments, Shopee and SeaMoney is expected to burn a total of about $(5.1) billion of AEBITDA. Adding Garena's estimated AEBITDA of $1.5 billion, Sea, as a Group, is expected to burn $(3.6) billion in FY2021.Source: Sea Limited FY2021 Q4 Investor PresentationBecause Garena is such an important piece of Shopee's and SeaMoney's growth story, a deceleration in Garena's business had investors reacting so negatively to Sea's latest earnings release, as now, the gaming business is incapable of covering the massive losses incurred by the other two business segments.Balance SheetSea's balance sheet position as of year-end FY2021 is at about $10.2 billion of Cash and Short Term Investments. While this may show that Sea has a substantial cushion against its short-term cash burn rate, its net cash position paints a different picture.Source: Sea Limited FY2021 Q4 Investor PresentationAdjusting for Sea's debt, Sea ended the year with a net cash position of around $5.9 billion. A substantial amount of its total debt comes from its recent issuance of 0.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026. The notes were issued when the stock was trading at $318 per share back in September and the initial conversion price is set at $477 per share. So, yes... conversion in the next 2 to 3 years is very unlikely.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisWith net cash of $5.9 billion and $(3.6) billion of estimated AEBITDA in FY2022, it won't be long before Sea requires another cash infusion. Therefore, if the high cash burn rate persists for the next 2 to 3 years, investors face a major risk of increasing financial leverage and/or dilution in the form of equity raises.Cash Flow StatementHere is what cash flow looks like over the last few quarters. Notice how Operating Cash Flow turned negative in the last quarter. Most of the cash also comes from Financing activities.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisUnlike other high-flying growth companies, Sea's Share-Based Compensation expenses are relatively low.Source: Sea Limited Investor Relations and Author's AnalysisCompetitive MoatsBased on my research and analysis, I identified three key competitive moats for Sea: brand, network effects, and barriers to entry. I used to think that Sea has cost advantages but as Garena becomes a smaller part of the overall business, and as losses continue to worsen, I have reason to believe that Sea no longer holds that moat.BrandAs discussed in previous sections, Garena's games, particularly Free Fire, have consistently ranked as the most downloaded mobile game in the world. Additionally, the Shopee app has gained cross-border stardom and is now regarded as the most downloaded or fastest-trending shopping App in the countries it operates in. Lastly, SeaMoney is also gaining traction with banking licenses granted in various countries that should increase brand value and trust.Network EffectsThe sheer amount of app downloads leads to powerful network effects. Garena has 652 million QAUs, which is about 8% of the world's population. Shopee recorded 200+ million app downloads in FY2021 alone. SeaMoney QAUs topped 45.8 million in Q4 and it is still in the early stages of adoption.With all these users in the Sea platform, cross-selling new products or services should be easier as Sea continues to scale. One such example is Shopee Brazil and Free Fire where each platform is encouraging consumers to use the other. As Sea continues to innovate and offer better experiences for its customers, the ecosystem gets bigger and tighter, leading to powerful network effects.Source: Shopee BrazilBarriers To EntryI believe each of Sea's core businesses is operating in a winner-takes-most environment with high barriers to entry.The mobile gaming environment requires the most talented developers to launch blockbuster games. Garena's Free Fire is certainly a blockbuster game and time in Free Fire's game means time away from other mobile games.Just like how Amazon (AMZN) dominates in the US, the e-commerce landscape in Southeast Asia and Latin America is dominated by a few players, such as Shopee, Tokopedia, and MercadoLibre (MELI). The scale and unit economics that these players have achieved makes it unsustainable for new entrants to compete with them.Banking and fintech is also a highly-regulated environment. Furthermore, consumers prefer to have just one mobile wallet, such as ShopeePay, as opposed to owning several different fintech applications.ValuationBased on my sum-of-the-parts and comparable company valuation analysis, Sea looks to be slightly undervalued with 19% upside potential. Of course, comparables are not perfect but based on this, we can gauge where Sea stands among peers.Source: Author's AnalysisOn the flip side, Sea looks extremely cheap on a historical basis. In terms of EV/Sales, Sea is trading at the lowest valuation since its IPO, trading at just 4.2x forward sales.Source: KoyfinIn terms of EV/Gross Profit, Sea is trading even cheaper than its March 2020 lows.Source: KoyfinThe valuation compression is warranted given that the company flew too close to the sun and now it is cratering back to the sea — not just for Sea, but almost all growth stocks took a beating. Growth is also slowing down and the macroeconomic environment looks gloomier than ever. However, this is not the end of the world; I think the markets are overreacting. Diversion from the mean goes both ways — perhaps, current prices present a good margin of safety for long-term investors.CatalystsSuccessful International Expansion — Shopee has been successful in replicating its playbook from Southeast Asia to Brazil. Recently, Shopee launched operations in India, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Poland, and Spain. If Shopee can take substantial market share in these new regions, Shopee's growth could turn exponential.The Metaverse — Sea's withering gaming division needs to be revitalized. New games and features could definitely provide the boost that it needs. For example, the metaverse is an exciting opportunity and Garena could introduce this concept to its 600+ million QAUs. Sea AI Lab (SAIL) and Sea Capital are two ventures that could accelerate the company into emerging industries, including the metaverse.We will continue to encourage user-generated content by enhancing greater features and accessibility. We believe that a strong user reception to Craftland is a positive indicator of the initial success to encourage user participation in content creation and to build Free Fire into an increasingly open platform and is well aligned with major emerging industry trends such as metaverse.Regional SuperApp — Although this concept has yet to be discussed by management, launching a regional SuperApp could enhance user engagement to new levels. For example, imagine Shopee users being able to play games, shop, order food delivery, pay for services, transfer money, invest, all under one app. Imagine users being able to convert their deposited funds in ShopeePay, into ShopeeCoins, and use it to perform cross-border transactions.Continued Growth In SeaMoney — SeaMoney is still in its early stages and continued adoption of Sea's digital financial services offerings will be a strong addition to Sea's bull thesis. SPayLater has real potential to disrupt the consumer credit industry. SeaBank and ShopeePay have the opportunity to capture digital wallet, digital banking, and cashless society trends.Free Fire India Ban Lift— Garena's weak guidance factored in the headwinds coming from the ban in India. If the ban is lifted, the stock may react positively as much of Sea's cash burn problems may be eliminated.RisksThe Pressure to Launch Blockbuster Games— There will come a time when Free Fire will be dethroned as the most-played and most-downloaded game. That is just how the gaming business works. This puts a substantial risk on the cash flow generation potential of Garena. Launching blockbuster games is never easy and it requires many trials and errors along the way. For me, I would like to see Garena shift to a gaming franchise model where the company launches an updated version of an existing game every year or two, which presents a more stable and recurring revenue stream for the company. An example would be FIFA or Call of Duty.Shopee India Ban — With Free Fire banned in India, there's also the potential for Shoppe to be banned as well.Failure to Gain Traction in International Markets— Shopee pulled out of France in early March, an indication that Shoppe's business model is not replicable in other countries, especially in more developed regions. Shopee Poland and Spain may be next on the exit list as they hold a close resemblance to France.Geopolitical Risks— Tencent, a Chinese company, has an 18.7% equity stake in Sea. Sanctions, bans, and other restrictions on Chinese companies, given the current geopolitical environment, could spell trouble for Sea. Tencent may have to cut exposure on Sea or even dissolve its developing-publishing partnership with Garena.Local Competition— Local champions operating in their respective markets cannot be ignored. These include GoTo in Indonesia, MercadoLibre in Latin America, and Flipkart in India.In addition, there's a certain level of pride for consumers to see their native-born companies succeed. I'm Indonesian, and it makes me really happy to see GoTo grow and grow.GoTo, the holding company of both Indonesian tech darlings Gojek and Tokopedia, recently announced its plan to IPO in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Here's a glance of GoTo's stats for the 12-months ended 30 September 2021:Valuation: $26.2 billion to $28.8 billionGMV: $28.8 billionRevenue: $1 billionGross Orders: 2 billionAnnual Transacting Users: 55 millionDriver Partners: 2.5 millionMerchants: 14 millionThe point is that there are big-time local players operating in Sea's markets that investors should never ignore. Here's a little snippet from my previous Shopee article:But with the GoTo merger, Indonesia could potentially extinguish the orange flame that charred its forest for many years. Now, GoTo could finally reclaim a good chunk of its territory that was lost to waves of competition, especially from Shopee. GoTo could finally gain more ground as the roots grew even stronger with the merger, fertilized with the synergies of value propositions, logistics, payments, and banking solutions.Meanwhile, Sea Limited's stock continues to soar, ignoring the titan of an elephant in the room. And because of GoTo's integration, Shopee's vertically-integrated business model doesn't look like a strong competitive advantage anymore.ConclusionEach of Sea's core businesses is in hypergrowth mode, propelled by megatrends in the mobile gaming, e-commerce, and fintech industry. Management understands these opportunities and therefore, is sacrificing short-term profitability for long-term market dominance. Despite being a larger business, Sea still has a massive growth runway ahead.That is not to say that unprofitability and competition risks can and should be ignored. The biggest concern for investors is the company's unsustainable cash burn rate, which will likely lead to further capital raises in the near future.Nonetheless, the long-term growth thesis for the three-headed monster remains intact. Strong brand, network effects, and barriers to entry moats should support the business going forward. In addition, shares of Sea are trading at the lowest valuation multiples ever, which presents a good margin of safety for an entry at these prices.Thank you for reading my Sea Limited deep dive. If you enjoyed the article, please let me know in the comment section down below. If you have any suggestions or feedback, don't hesitate to share your thoughts as well.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038242763,"gmtCreate":1646862417175,"gmtModify":1676534169698,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038242763","repostId":"1157057946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157057946","pubTimestamp":1646837534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157057946?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-09 22:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla May Be Reaching Critical Point","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157057946","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade U","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Berlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.</li><li>Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.</li><li>Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.</li></ul><p>With Russia deciding to invade Ukraine recently, electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) has received a lot of attention. With the prices of oil and gasoline soaring, consumers and global governments are looking toward a future of renewable energy and less ICE vehicles. While the overall craziness around Tesla from years back seemed to have settled down, the future of the company could actually be reaching a critical point rather soon.</p><p>Part of the bull case for last year was the opening of two new factories that would help with the company&#39;s next leg of growth. As we&#39;ve seen with a number of past Tesla items, delays ensued, but things are finally progressing. The first deliveries from these factories should start in the coming months, although they aren&#39;t likely to make any meaningful contributions until much later this year. In terms of pure volume growth, the Berlin and Austin facilities are more important items for next year&#39;s delivery surge.</p><p>Now that these factories are starting to produce vehicles, I&#39;m curious to see how street analysts react. As I&#39;ve detailed in previous articles, the street has been extremely conservative with regard to Tesla in recent quarters. As the table below shows, one analyst even sees Q4 revenues this year coming in below last year&#39;s Q4 total sales figure. Most Tesla bulls see at least an extra 125,000 deliveries in this year&#39;s Q4, so how is it possible that the company report lower revenue? These extremely low estimates continue to drag overall averages down, which helps Tesla report delivery, revenue, and earnings beats that don&#39;t truly reflect the reality here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a3c38eb92e463dd471485692153ab34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"111\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha Estimates Page)</p><p>As for the current quarter, total revenues are expected to be down a little sequentially, implying flat to slightly higher deliveries. That implies around 310,000 deliveries for Q1, a bit below my current expectation for 324,000. We got decent numbers out of China for January, and we&#39;re expected to get February numbers rather soon. Perhaps good data on that front will get the street average up a bit to a more realistic expectation.</p><p>With gasoline prices soaring in recent weeks, the spotlight on electric vehicles has certainly increased. However, Tesla also faces a hit from the Russia situation as the country is a key nickel producer, and other commodity prices have also soared. Cobalt, copper, and lithium carbonate prices are on the rise as well, which could dent Tesla&#39;s margins in the coming quarters unless the company raises prices again. The consumers being hurt the most by rising energy prices can&#39;t just go out and buy EVs that start at $60,000, which will impact the ongoing shift to electric vehicles.</p><p>Since Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, for instance, prices of copper have nearly doubled, while cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices have more than doubled. That&#39;s going to make it hard for Tesla to achieve that sub $40,000 price point, unless it wants to lose a bit of money. For those arguing about massive battery savings coming up, just remember that the Model 3 starts at nearly $45,000 currently, and that&#39;s a much smaller vehicle and one that has been in mass production for years. Tesla is currently estimated to have well over a million reservations for the Cybertruck, so it will be interesting to see how many orders are canceled if prices jump 10%, 25%, or more once the vehicle actually comes to market.</p><p>Perhaps the biggest risk for Tesla currently doesn&#39;t actually involve everyday operations, as there are a number of ongoing high profile lawsuits involving the company and or Elon Musk. As the company&#39;s10-K filing details, a decision on the lawsuit against the SolarCity acquisition is due in the coming months. A trial related to the 2018 CEO award is scheduled for April, while another case involving the $420 going private transaction is scheduled for trial in May. At the same time, the SECis reportedly looking into Elon and Kimbal Musk for alleged insider trading charges. These legal actions could have widespread ramifications for Tesla, its executives, and board members, but to what degree is uncertain at this point.</p><p>As for Tesla shares, they remain in a very interesting place currently. Despite all the positive potential news for EV and solar lately, the stock has been hit with the overall market. Monday&#39;s close below $805 puts the stock well below the average street price target of $958. As the chart below shows, shares have recently lost the 200-day moving average (orange line). Without a rebound in the near term, that sets up the possibility of the dreaded death cross over the next few months, as the 50-day moving average (purple line) could cross below its longer term counterpart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b83ea0334f84eaaad7b891873d79b292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Chart With Moving Averages(Yahoo Finance)</p><p>In the end, Tesla may be approaching a key point in its history over the next couple of months. The Berlin and Austin factories are set to start contributing to the growth story, coming at a time where consumers are feeling the pain of higher gas prices thanks to the Russian war in Ukraine. Unfortunately for the company, the shift to EVs may face a stiff headwind if commodity prices continue to soar and make these vehicles much more expensive. While many eyes remain on the business itself, I will really be watching the courtroom as Tesla and Elon Musk face a number of major lawsuits. Investors are hoping the growth story can push this stock to new highs moving forward, but the overall market weakness is limiting upside currently.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla May Be Reaching Critical Point</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla May Be Reaching Critical Point\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-09 22:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157057946","content_text":"SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade Ukraine recently, electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) has received a lot of attention. With the prices of oil and gasoline soaring, consumers and global governments are looking toward a future of renewable energy and less ICE vehicles. While the overall craziness around Tesla from years back seemed to have settled down, the future of the company could actually be reaching a critical point rather soon.Part of the bull case for last year was the opening of two new factories that would help with the company's next leg of growth. As we've seen with a number of past Tesla items, delays ensued, but things are finally progressing. The first deliveries from these factories should start in the coming months, although they aren't likely to make any meaningful contributions until much later this year. In terms of pure volume growth, the Berlin and Austin facilities are more important items for next year's delivery surge.Now that these factories are starting to produce vehicles, I'm curious to see how street analysts react. As I've detailed in previous articles, the street has been extremely conservative with regard to Tesla in recent quarters. As the table below shows, one analyst even sees Q4 revenues this year coming in below last year's Q4 total sales figure. Most Tesla bulls see at least an extra 125,000 deliveries in this year's Q4, so how is it possible that the company report lower revenue? These extremely low estimates continue to drag overall averages down, which helps Tesla report delivery, revenue, and earnings beats that don't truly reflect the reality here.Tesla Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha Estimates Page)As for the current quarter, total revenues are expected to be down a little sequentially, implying flat to slightly higher deliveries. That implies around 310,000 deliveries for Q1, a bit below my current expectation for 324,000. We got decent numbers out of China for January, and we're expected to get February numbers rather soon. Perhaps good data on that front will get the street average up a bit to a more realistic expectation.With gasoline prices soaring in recent weeks, the spotlight on electric vehicles has certainly increased. However, Tesla also faces a hit from the Russia situation as the country is a key nickel producer, and other commodity prices have also soared. Cobalt, copper, and lithium carbonate prices are on the rise as well, which could dent Tesla's margins in the coming quarters unless the company raises prices again. The consumers being hurt the most by rising energy prices can't just go out and buy EVs that start at $60,000, which will impact the ongoing shift to electric vehicles.Since Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, for instance, prices of copper have nearly doubled, while cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices have more than doubled. That's going to make it hard for Tesla to achieve that sub $40,000 price point, unless it wants to lose a bit of money. For those arguing about massive battery savings coming up, just remember that the Model 3 starts at nearly $45,000 currently, and that's a much smaller vehicle and one that has been in mass production for years. Tesla is currently estimated to have well over a million reservations for the Cybertruck, so it will be interesting to see how many orders are canceled if prices jump 10%, 25%, or more once the vehicle actually comes to market.Perhaps the biggest risk for Tesla currently doesn't actually involve everyday operations, as there are a number of ongoing high profile lawsuits involving the company and or Elon Musk. As the company's10-K filing details, a decision on the lawsuit against the SolarCity acquisition is due in the coming months. A trial related to the 2018 CEO award is scheduled for April, while another case involving the $420 going private transaction is scheduled for trial in May. At the same time, the SECis reportedly looking into Elon and Kimbal Musk for alleged insider trading charges. These legal actions could have widespread ramifications for Tesla, its executives, and board members, but to what degree is uncertain at this point.As for Tesla shares, they remain in a very interesting place currently. Despite all the positive potential news for EV and solar lately, the stock has been hit with the overall market. Monday's close below $805 puts the stock well below the average street price target of $958. As the chart below shows, shares have recently lost the 200-day moving average (orange line). Without a rebound in the near term, that sets up the possibility of the dreaded death cross over the next few months, as the 50-day moving average (purple line) could cross below its longer term counterpart.Tesla Chart With Moving Averages(Yahoo Finance)In the end, Tesla may be approaching a key point in its history over the next couple of months. The Berlin and Austin factories are set to start contributing to the growth story, coming at a time where consumers are feeling the pain of higher gas prices thanks to the Russian war in Ukraine. Unfortunately for the company, the shift to EVs may face a stiff headwind if commodity prices continue to soar and make these vehicles much more expensive. While many eyes remain on the business itself, I will really be watching the courtroom as Tesla and Elon Musk face a number of major lawsuits. Investors are hoping the growth story can push this stock to new highs moving forward, but the overall market weakness is limiting upside currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031318988,"gmtCreate":1646442344256,"gmtModify":1676534129761,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031318988","repostId":"2217746440","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2217746440","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1646435363,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2217746440?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-05 07:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends down as Ukraine Fears Eclipse Solid Jobs Data","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2217746440","media":"Reuters","summary":"Wall Street ended lower on Friday as the war in Ukraine overshadowed an acceleration in U.S. jobs growth last month that pointed to strength in the economy.Most of the 11 major S&P sector indexes decl","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street ended lower on Friday as the war in Ukraine overshadowed an acceleration in U.S. jobs growth last month that pointed to strength in the economy.</p><p>Most of the 11 major S&amp;P sector indexes declined, with financials leading the way with a 2% drop as investors worried about how the West&#39;s sanctions against Moscow may affect the international financial system.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 banks index fell 3.35%, bringing its loss for the week to nearly 9%, its worst weekly decline since June 2020.</p><p>Equities globally were weaker, with safe-haven assets in demand after Russian forces seized Europe&#39;s biggest nuclear power plant in what Washington called a reckless assault that risked catastrophe.</p><p>The Labor Department&#39;s closely watched employment report showed jobs grew by a more than expected 678,000 last month and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, the lowest since February 2020.</p><p>&#34;Three or four weeks ago, we would have thought that this is an incredibly important number. But given the backdrop and the overall events that are happening in Europe, it&#39;s just not,&#34; said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte.</p><p>&#34;The potential for escalation in the hot war, the potential for a growth impact in Europe and more broadly, and knock-on effects on the commodity channel and inflation are taking up all of investors&#39; time and energy,&#34; Hill said.</p><p>Amazon.com Inc , Apple Inc, Google owner-Alphabet Inc and Microsoft Corp all lost more than 1%.</p><p>The crisis in Ukraine boosted energy stocks as crude prices and other commodities rallied on the back of sanctions against Russia, a major oil producer. The S&amp;P 500 energy sector jumped 2.85% and gained about 9% for the week.</p><p>Richly valued growth stocks have faced the brunt of the recent selloff, with the S&amp;P 500 growth index    down 1.3% on Friday. The value index    declined 0.3%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.53% to end at 33,614.8 points, while the S&amp;P 500    lost 0.79% to 4,328.87.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.66% to 13,313.44.</p><p>For the week, the S&amp;P 500 and Dow both fell 1.3%, while the Nasdaq gave up 2.8%.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said this week he would support a 25-basis-point interest rate increase at the central bank&#39;s March 15-16 policy meeting and would be &#34;prepared to move more aggressively&#34; later if inflation does not abate as fast as expected.</p><p>Soaring commodity prices have raised fears of even greater inflation, which could prompt the Fed to hike interest rates more aggressively.</p><p>Shares of WW International, formerly Weight Watchers, dropped over 8% after the Federal Trade Commission said the company &#34;illegally&#34; collected personal information from children without parental permission.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.70-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and 27 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 406 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.9 billion shares, compared to a 20-day average of 12.6 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends down as Ukraine Fears Eclipse Solid Jobs Data</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Ends down as Ukraine Fears Eclipse Solid Jobs Data\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-05 07:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street ended lower on Friday as the war in Ukraine overshadowed an acceleration in U.S. jobs growth last month that pointed to strength in the economy.</p><p>Most of the 11 major S&amp;P sector indexes declined, with financials leading the way with a 2% drop as investors worried about how the West&#39;s sanctions against Moscow may affect the international financial system.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 banks index fell 3.35%, bringing its loss for the week to nearly 9%, its worst weekly decline since June 2020.</p><p>Equities globally were weaker, with safe-haven assets in demand after Russian forces seized Europe&#39;s biggest nuclear power plant in what Washington called a reckless assault that risked catastrophe.</p><p>The Labor Department&#39;s closely watched employment report showed jobs grew by a more than expected 678,000 last month and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, the lowest since February 2020.</p><p>&#34;Three or four weeks ago, we would have thought that this is an incredibly important number. But given the backdrop and the overall events that are happening in Europe, it&#39;s just not,&#34; said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte.</p><p>&#34;The potential for escalation in the hot war, the potential for a growth impact in Europe and more broadly, and knock-on effects on the commodity channel and inflation are taking up all of investors&#39; time and energy,&#34; Hill said.</p><p>Amazon.com Inc , Apple Inc, Google owner-Alphabet Inc and Microsoft Corp all lost more than 1%.</p><p>The crisis in Ukraine boosted energy stocks as crude prices and other commodities rallied on the back of sanctions against Russia, a major oil producer. The S&amp;P 500 energy sector jumped 2.85% and gained about 9% for the week.</p><p>Richly valued growth stocks have faced the brunt of the recent selloff, with the S&amp;P 500 growth index    down 1.3% on Friday. The value index    declined 0.3%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.53% to end at 33,614.8 points, while the S&amp;P 500    lost 0.79% to 4,328.87.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.66% to 13,313.44.</p><p>For the week, the S&amp;P 500 and Dow both fell 1.3%, while the Nasdaq gave up 2.8%.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said this week he would support a 25-basis-point interest rate increase at the central bank&#39;s March 15-16 policy meeting and would be &#34;prepared to move more aggressively&#34; later if inflation does not abate as fast as expected.</p><p>Soaring commodity prices have raised fears of even greater inflation, which could prompt the Fed to hike interest rates more aggressively.</p><p>Shares of WW International, formerly Weight Watchers, dropped over 8% after the Federal Trade Commission said the company &#34;illegally&#34; collected personal information from children without parental permission.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.70-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and 27 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 406 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.9 billion shares, compared to a 20-day average of 12.6 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4514":"搜索引擎","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc.","CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4139":"生物科技","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4576":"AR","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4007":"制药","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4196":"保健护理服务","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BK4082":"医疗保健设备","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4579":"人工智能"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2217746440","content_text":"Wall Street ended lower on Friday as the war in Ukraine overshadowed an acceleration in U.S. jobs growth last month that pointed to strength in the economy.Most of the 11 major S&P sector indexes declined, with financials leading the way with a 2% drop as investors worried about how the West's sanctions against Moscow may affect the international financial system.The S&P 500 banks index fell 3.35%, bringing its loss for the week to nearly 9%, its worst weekly decline since June 2020.Equities globally were weaker, with safe-haven assets in demand after Russian forces seized Europe's biggest nuclear power plant in what Washington called a reckless assault that risked catastrophe.The Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed jobs grew by a more than expected 678,000 last month and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, the lowest since February 2020.\"Three or four weeks ago, we would have thought that this is an incredibly important number. But given the backdrop and the overall events that are happening in Europe, it's just not,\" said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte.\"The potential for escalation in the hot war, the potential for a growth impact in Europe and more broadly, and knock-on effects on the commodity channel and inflation are taking up all of investors' time and energy,\" Hill said.Amazon.com Inc , Apple Inc, Google owner-Alphabet Inc and Microsoft Corp all lost more than 1%.The crisis in Ukraine boosted energy stocks as crude prices and other commodities rallied on the back of sanctions against Russia, a major oil producer. The S&P 500 energy sector jumped 2.85% and gained about 9% for the week.Richly valued growth stocks have faced the brunt of the recent selloff, with the S&P 500 growth index    down 1.3% on Friday. The value index    declined 0.3%.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.53% to end at 33,614.8 points, while the S&P 500    lost 0.79% to 4,328.87.The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.66% to 13,313.44.For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow both fell 1.3%, while the Nasdaq gave up 2.8%.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said this week he would support a 25-basis-point interest rate increase at the central bank's March 15-16 policy meeting and would be \"prepared to move more aggressively\" later if inflation does not abate as fast as expected.Soaring commodity prices have raised fears of even greater inflation, which could prompt the Fed to hike interest rates more aggressively.Shares of WW International, formerly Weight Watchers, dropped over 8% after the Federal Trade Commission said the company \"illegally\" collected personal information from children without parental permission.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.70-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and 27 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 406 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.9 billion shares, compared to a 20-day average of 12.6 billion, according to Refinitiv data.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915147322,"gmtCreate":1665007046866,"gmtModify":1676537540846,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915147322","repostId":"2272834099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2272834099","pubTimestamp":1664983956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272834099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272834099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There's no guarantee these Buffett stocks will take off. But the chances appear to be pretty good.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects for the stocks he buys for <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>.</p><p>That is absolutely the correct mindset to have. However, if I had to pick the stocks in Berkshire&#39;s portfolio that would probably deliver strong gains over the near term, the decision wouldn&#39;t be that difficult. Here are the three Buffett stocks I think are most likely to soar in Q4.</p><h2>1. Chevron</h2><p><b>Chevron</b> now ranks as the fourth-largest position in Buffett&#39;s portfolio. It&#39;s one of the few stocks that the Berkshire Hathaway CEO has been consistently buying for several consecutive quarters.</p><p>The oil and gas giant also stands as one of the few big winners for Buffett so far in 2022. Chevron&#39;s share price has jumped close to 30% year to date. This gain stemmed in large part from Ukraine war, a move that disrupted the global energy market.</p><p>I think that Chevron stock will probably move even higher in Q4. Any hopes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would end quickly have evaporated. European Union leaders agreed to ban 90% of most Russian oil imports by the end of this year. OPEC+ members are meeting this week to consider cutting oil production.</p><p>All of this could translate to higher oil prices, which would be bad news for the public but good news for Chevron. With shares trading at around nine times expected earnings, Chevron&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t so great that the stock wouldn&#39;t benefit from further global supply tightening.</p><h2>2. Occidental Petroleum</h2><p>Buffett has become a huge fan of <b>Occidental Petroleum</b>. After months of aggressive buying, Berkshire now owns nearly 21% of the oil and gas company.</p><p>Occidental has been the best-performing stock in Berkshire&#39;s entire portfolio so far this year. Its shares have skyrocketed by more than 120%. At one point, Oxy was up over 150% year to date.</p><p>Can Occidental keep its momentum going in Q4? I think so. Importantly, the company benefits from the same global dynamics that should help Chevron. The two stocks also share nearly identical forward earnings multiples.</p><p>But there&#39;s another factor that could boost Occidental stock even more this year. In August, Berkshire won regulatory authorization to acquire up to 50% of Occidental. If Buffett keeps buying shares, it&#39;s almost a certainty that Occidental stock will keep rising.</p><h2>3. Apple</h2><p>You could make a good case that <b>Apple</b> ranks as Buffett&#39;s favorite stock after Berkshire itself. Apple is by far the biggest holding in Berkshire&#39;s portfolio. Buffett has referred to it as one of Berkshire&#39;s &#34;four giants.&#34; The other three &#34;giants&#34; -- the insurance business, BNSF Railway, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy -- are Berkshire subsidiaries.</p><p>Unlike Chevron and Occidental, Apple has been a loser for Buffett in 2022. Shares of the tech giant have plunged around 20% year to date.</p><p>Don&#39;t think for a second that Apple can&#39;t rebound strongly in Q4, though. One key reason behind the stock&#39;s recent slide is a Bloomberg report that Apple asked certain suppliers to scale back production of the new iPhone 14. But stories based on anonymous sources don&#39;t always pan out.</p><p>At least one Wall Street analyst, Rosenblatt Securities, thinks that consumers in the U.S. and in other countries could enthusiastically buy Apple&#39;s new products. All it would take for Apple stock to soar from current levels is for the company to beat sales expectations during the holiday season.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果","CVX":"雪佛龙","OXY":"西方石油","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272834099","content_text":"Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects for the stocks he buys for Berkshire Hathaway.That is absolutely the correct mindset to have. However, if I had to pick the stocks in Berkshire's portfolio that would probably deliver strong gains over the near term, the decision wouldn't be that difficult. Here are the three Buffett stocks I think are most likely to soar in Q4.1. ChevronChevron now ranks as the fourth-largest position in Buffett's portfolio. It's one of the few stocks that the Berkshire Hathaway CEO has been consistently buying for several consecutive quarters.The oil and gas giant also stands as one of the few big winners for Buffett so far in 2022. Chevron's share price has jumped close to 30% year to date. This gain stemmed in large part from Ukraine war, a move that disrupted the global energy market.I think that Chevron stock will probably move even higher in Q4. Any hopes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would end quickly have evaporated. European Union leaders agreed to ban 90% of most Russian oil imports by the end of this year. OPEC+ members are meeting this week to consider cutting oil production.All of this could translate to higher oil prices, which would be bad news for the public but good news for Chevron. With shares trading at around nine times expected earnings, Chevron's valuation isn't so great that the stock wouldn't benefit from further global supply tightening.2. Occidental PetroleumBuffett has become a huge fan of Occidental Petroleum. After months of aggressive buying, Berkshire now owns nearly 21% of the oil and gas company.Occidental has been the best-performing stock in Berkshire's entire portfolio so far this year. Its shares have skyrocketed by more than 120%. At one point, Oxy was up over 150% year to date.Can Occidental keep its momentum going in Q4? I think so. Importantly, the company benefits from the same global dynamics that should help Chevron. The two stocks also share nearly identical forward earnings multiples.But there's another factor that could boost Occidental stock even more this year. In August, Berkshire won regulatory authorization to acquire up to 50% of Occidental. If Buffett keeps buying shares, it's almost a certainty that Occidental stock will keep rising.3. AppleYou could make a good case that Apple ranks as Buffett's favorite stock after Berkshire itself. Apple is by far the biggest holding in Berkshire's portfolio. Buffett has referred to it as one of Berkshire's \"four giants.\" The other three \"giants\" -- the insurance business, BNSF Railway, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy -- are Berkshire subsidiaries.Unlike Chevron and Occidental, Apple has been a loser for Buffett in 2022. Shares of the tech giant have plunged around 20% year to date.Don't think for a second that Apple can't rebound strongly in Q4, though. One key reason behind the stock's recent slide is a Bloomberg report that Apple asked certain suppliers to scale back production of the new iPhone 14. But stories based on anonymous sources don't always pan out.At least one Wall Street analyst, Rosenblatt Securities, thinks that consumers in the U.S. and in other countries could enthusiastically buy Apple's new products. All it would take for Apple stock to soar from current levels is for the company to beat sales expectations during the holiday season.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994041849,"gmtCreate":1661552367684,"gmtModify":1676536537790,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994041849","repostId":"1131787080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131787080","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661526671,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131787080?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 23:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Full Speech By Federal Reserve Chair Powell on Monetary Policy and Price Stability","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131787080","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Monetary Policy and Price StabilityChair Jerome H. PowellAt “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy,” an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jack","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b><i>Monetary Policy and Price Stability</i></b></p><p>Chair Jerome H. Powell</p><p>At “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy,” an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming</p><p>Thank you for the opportunity to speak here today.</p><p>At past Jackson Hole conferences, I have discussed broad topics such as the ever-changing structure of the economy and the challenges of conducting monetary policy under high uncertainty. Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct.</p><p>The Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them.</p><p>Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.</p><p>The U.S. economy is clearly slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. While the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view our economy continues to show strong underlying momentum. The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. Inflation is running well above 2 percent, and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy. While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month&#39;s improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.</p><p>We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. At our most recent meeting in July, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25 to 2.5 percent, which is in the Summary of Economic Projection&#39;s (SEP) range of estimates of where the federal funds rate is projected to settle in the longer run. In current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2 percent and the labor market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a place to stop or pause.</p><p>July&#39;s increase in the target range was the second 75 basis point increase in as many meetings, and I said then that another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting. We are now about halfway through the intermeeting period. Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook. At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases.</p><p>Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. Committee participants&#39; most recent individual projections from the June SEP showed the median federal funds rate running slightly below 4 percent through the end of 2023. Participants will update their projections at the September meeting.</p><p>Our monetary policy deliberations and decisions build on what we have learned about inflation dynamics both from the high and volatile inflation of the 1970s and 1980s, and from the low and stable inflation of the past quarter-century. In particular, we are drawing on three important lessons.</p><p>The first lesson is that central banks<i>can</i>and<i>should</i>take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation. It may seem strange now that central bankers and others once needed convincing on these two fronts, but as former Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown, both propositions were widely questioned during the Great Inflation period.1Today, we regard these questions as settled. Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional. It is true that the current high inflation is a global phenomenon, and that many economies around the world face inflation as high or higher than seen here in the United States. It is also true, in my view, that the current high inflation in the United States is the product of strong demand and constrained supply, and that the Fed&#39;s tools work principally on aggregate demand. None of this diminishes the Federal Reserve&#39;s responsibility to carry out our assigned task of achieving price stability. There is clearly a job to do in moderating demand to better align with supply. We are committed to doing that job.</p><p>The second lesson is that the public&#39;s expectations about future inflation can play an important role in setting the path of inflation over time. Today, by many measures, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored. That is broadly true of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, and of market-based measures as well. But that is not grounds for complacency, with inflation having run well above our goal for some time.</p><p>If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will. Unfortunately, the same is true of expectations of high and volatile inflation. During the 1970s, as inflation climbed, the anticipation of high inflation became entrenched in the economic decisionmaking of households and businesses. The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions. As former Chairman Paul Volcker put it at the height of the Great Inflation in 1979, &#34;Inflation feeds in part on itself, so part of the job of returning to a more stable and more productive economy must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations.&#34;2</p><p>One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of &#34;rational inattention.&#34;3When inflation is persistently high, households and businesses must pay close attention and incorporate inflation into their economic decisions. When inflation is low and stable, they are freer to focus their attention elsewhere. Former Chairman Alan Greenspan put it this way: &#34;For all practical purposes, price stability means that expected changes in the average price level are small enough and gradual enough that they do not materially enter business and household financial decisions.&#34;4</p><p>Of course, inflation has just about everyone&#39;s attention right now, which highlights a particular risk today: The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.</p><p>That brings me to the third lesson, which is that we must keep at it until the job is done. History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.</p><p>These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.</p><p></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Full Speech By Federal Reserve Chair Powell on Monetary Policy and Price Stability</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFull Speech By Federal Reserve Chair Powell on Monetary Policy and Price Stability\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-26 23:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b><i>Monetary Policy and Price Stability</i></b></p><p>Chair Jerome H. Powell</p><p>At “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy,” an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming</p><p>Thank you for the opportunity to speak here today.</p><p>At past Jackson Hole conferences, I have discussed broad topics such as the ever-changing structure of the economy and the challenges of conducting monetary policy under high uncertainty. Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct.</p><p>The Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them.</p><p>Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.</p><p>The U.S. economy is clearly slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. While the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view our economy continues to show strong underlying momentum. The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. Inflation is running well above 2 percent, and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy. While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month&#39;s improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.</p><p>We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. At our most recent meeting in July, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25 to 2.5 percent, which is in the Summary of Economic Projection&#39;s (SEP) range of estimates of where the federal funds rate is projected to settle in the longer run. In current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2 percent and the labor market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a place to stop or pause.</p><p>July&#39;s increase in the target range was the second 75 basis point increase in as many meetings, and I said then that another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting. We are now about halfway through the intermeeting period. Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook. At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases.</p><p>Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. Committee participants&#39; most recent individual projections from the June SEP showed the median federal funds rate running slightly below 4 percent through the end of 2023. Participants will update their projections at the September meeting.</p><p>Our monetary policy deliberations and decisions build on what we have learned about inflation dynamics both from the high and volatile inflation of the 1970s and 1980s, and from the low and stable inflation of the past quarter-century. In particular, we are drawing on three important lessons.</p><p>The first lesson is that central banks<i>can</i>and<i>should</i>take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation. It may seem strange now that central bankers and others once needed convincing on these two fronts, but as former Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown, both propositions were widely questioned during the Great Inflation period.1Today, we regard these questions as settled. Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional. It is true that the current high inflation is a global phenomenon, and that many economies around the world face inflation as high or higher than seen here in the United States. It is also true, in my view, that the current high inflation in the United States is the product of strong demand and constrained supply, and that the Fed&#39;s tools work principally on aggregate demand. None of this diminishes the Federal Reserve&#39;s responsibility to carry out our assigned task of achieving price stability. There is clearly a job to do in moderating demand to better align with supply. We are committed to doing that job.</p><p>The second lesson is that the public&#39;s expectations about future inflation can play an important role in setting the path of inflation over time. Today, by many measures, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored. That is broadly true of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, and of market-based measures as well. But that is not grounds for complacency, with inflation having run well above our goal for some time.</p><p>If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will. Unfortunately, the same is true of expectations of high and volatile inflation. During the 1970s, as inflation climbed, the anticipation of high inflation became entrenched in the economic decisionmaking of households and businesses. The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions. As former Chairman Paul Volcker put it at the height of the Great Inflation in 1979, &#34;Inflation feeds in part on itself, so part of the job of returning to a more stable and more productive economy must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations.&#34;2</p><p>One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of &#34;rational inattention.&#34;3When inflation is persistently high, households and businesses must pay close attention and incorporate inflation into their economic decisions. When inflation is low and stable, they are freer to focus their attention elsewhere. Former Chairman Alan Greenspan put it this way: &#34;For all practical purposes, price stability means that expected changes in the average price level are small enough and gradual enough that they do not materially enter business and household financial decisions.&#34;4</p><p>Of course, inflation has just about everyone&#39;s attention right now, which highlights a particular risk today: The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.</p><p>That brings me to the third lesson, which is that we must keep at it until the job is done. History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.</p><p>These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.</p><p></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131787080","content_text":"Monetary Policy and Price StabilityChair Jerome H. PowellAt “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy,” an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, WyomingThank you for the opportunity to speak here today.At past Jackson Hole conferences, I have discussed broad topics such as the ever-changing structure of the economy and the challenges of conducting monetary policy under high uncertainty. Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct.The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them.Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.The U.S. economy is clearly slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. While the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view our economy continues to show strong underlying momentum. The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. Inflation is running well above 2 percent, and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy. While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. At our most recent meeting in July, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25 to 2.5 percent, which is in the Summary of Economic Projection's (SEP) range of estimates of where the federal funds rate is projected to settle in the longer run. In current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2 percent and the labor market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a place to stop or pause.July's increase in the target range was the second 75 basis point increase in as many meetings, and I said then that another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting. We are now about halfway through the intermeeting period. Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook. At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases.Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. Committee participants' most recent individual projections from the June SEP showed the median federal funds rate running slightly below 4 percent through the end of 2023. Participants will update their projections at the September meeting.Our monetary policy deliberations and decisions build on what we have learned about inflation dynamics both from the high and volatile inflation of the 1970s and 1980s, and from the low and stable inflation of the past quarter-century. In particular, we are drawing on three important lessons.The first lesson is that central bankscanandshouldtake responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation. It may seem strange now that central bankers and others once needed convincing on these two fronts, but as former Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown, both propositions were widely questioned during the Great Inflation period.1Today, we regard these questions as settled. Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional. It is true that the current high inflation is a global phenomenon, and that many economies around the world face inflation as high or higher than seen here in the United States. It is also true, in my view, that the current high inflation in the United States is the product of strong demand and constrained supply, and that the Fed's tools work principally on aggregate demand. None of this diminishes the Federal Reserve's responsibility to carry out our assigned task of achieving price stability. There is clearly a job to do in moderating demand to better align with supply. We are committed to doing that job.The second lesson is that the public's expectations about future inflation can play an important role in setting the path of inflation over time. Today, by many measures, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored. That is broadly true of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, and of market-based measures as well. But that is not grounds for complacency, with inflation having run well above our goal for some time.If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will. Unfortunately, the same is true of expectations of high and volatile inflation. During the 1970s, as inflation climbed, the anticipation of high inflation became entrenched in the economic decisionmaking of households and businesses. The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions. As former Chairman Paul Volcker put it at the height of the Great Inflation in 1979, \"Inflation feeds in part on itself, so part of the job of returning to a more stable and more productive economy must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations.\"2One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of \"rational inattention.\"3When inflation is persistently high, households and businesses must pay close attention and incorporate inflation into their economic decisions. When inflation is low and stable, they are freer to focus their attention elsewhere. Former Chairman Alan Greenspan put it this way: \"For all practical purposes, price stability means that expected changes in the average price level are small enough and gradual enough that they do not materially enter business and household financial decisions.\"4Of course, inflation has just about everyone's attention right now, which highlights a particular risk today: The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.That brings me to the third lesson, which is that we must keep at it until the job is done. History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072619481,"gmtCreate":1658024284543,"gmtModify":1676536094918,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072619481","repostId":"2249540083","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2249540083","pubTimestamp":1658021139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2249540083?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-17 09:25","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Tycoon Whose Bet Broke the Nickel Market Walks Away a Billionaire","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249540083","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) --By 2.08pm Shanghai time on March 8, it was clear that Xiang Guangda's giant ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) --By 2.08pm Shanghai time on March 8, it was clear that Xiang Guangda&#39;s giant bet on a fall in nickel prices was going spectacularly wrong.</p><p>Futures had just skyrocketed above US$100,000 a ton and his trade was more than US$10 billion underwater. It was threatening not only to bankrupt Mr Xiang&#39;s company, but to trigger a Lehman Brothers-like shock through the entire metals industry and possibly topple the London Metal Exchange (LME) itself.</p><p>But Mr Xiang was calm. Within hours, more than 50 bankers had arrived at his office wanting to hear how he planned to respond to the crisis. He told them simply: &#34;I&#39;m confident that we will overcome this.&#34;</p><p>And he did.</p><p>Four months on, the nickel price is falling, as Mr Xiang had predicted. The coterie of banks led by JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co that were baying for his blood has been repaid. He has closed out nearly all his short position in nickel, making a loss on the trade of about US$1 billion - a manageable sum given the profits being generated elsewhere in his business empire, say people who know him.</p><p>Crucially: the man nicknamed &#39;Big Shot&#39; in Chinese commodities circles is poised to walk away from the fiasco with his multibillion-dollar mining and steelmaking company, Tsingshan Holding Group, intact and even expanding.</p><p>But while Mr Xiang moves on, others are left dealing with the destruction wrought by the crisis. His miraculous escape was thanks in no small part to the actions of the LME, which controversially intervened to prevent prices from rising and then suspended trading until Mr Xiang had struck a deal with his banks.</p><p>Those on the other side of the trade, who lost billions, were furious. Months later, the LME is dealing with a raft of investigations and lawsuits, and the nickel market is still reeling.</p><p>&#34;Nice to see that @jpmorgan and The Big Shot got out of this whole thing with only scratches,&#34; Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital Management, said last week in a tweet thick with sarcasm. &#34;It&#39;s just heart warming.&#34;</p><p>This account of how Mr Xiang extricated himself from a short squeeze that rocked the global metals markets is based on numerous interviews with people who were involved, all of whom requested anonymity. Multiple attempts to seek comment from Tsingshan were unsuccessful.</p><h2>Massive short squeeze</h2><p>Mr Xiang had built up his massive short position in late 2021 and early 2022 partly as a hedge, partly as a bet that a planned jump in Tsingshan&#39;s production this year would drag down prices. But when Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine jolted global markets, nickel started climbing - gradually at first, before rocketing 250 per cent in an epic squeeze.</p><p>On the evening of March 8, senior bankers crowded into a room at Tsingshan&#39;s headquarters demanding answers. Others dialed in for video calls from London or Singapore. Of those present, some didn&#39;t leave until early the next morning.</p><p>More On This TopicXiang Guangda, the metals &#39;visionary&#39; who brought nickel market to a standstillNickel trading halted after unprecedented 250% spike amid Russia supply fears</p><p>The crowd that night was so large because Mr Xiang&#39;s position was spread across about 10 banks and brokers - he had been a good client for many of them, including JPMorgan, for years. But after nickel started spiking on March 7, Tsingshan struggled to meet its margin calls. Now he owed each of them hundreds of millions of dollars.</p><p>The LME had eventually intervened to halt trading a couple of hours after nickel hit US$100,000. It also canceled billions of dollars of transactions, bringing the price back to US$48,078, where it closed the previous day, in what amounted to a lifeline for Mr Xiang and Tsingshan.</p><p>To reopen the market, the LME proposed a solution: Mr Xiang should strike a deal with holders of long positions to close out his trade. But a price of around US$50,000 would be more than twice the level at which he had entered his short position, and would mean accepting billions of dollars in losses.</p><p>Mr Xiang, who is in his early 60s, stood firm. From a start making frames for car doors and windows in Wenzhou, eastern China, he&#39;d built Tsingshan into the world&#39;s largest nickel and stainless steel producer, with an empire stretching from mines in remote Indonesian islands to steel mills on China&#39;s east coast. Along the way, he&#39;d acquired a reputation for visionary thinking and a taste for betting big.</p><p>The spike in prices and the trading freeze caused havoc for companies that use nickel, like stainless steel mills and makers of batteries for electric vehicles. Some simply stopped taking new orders. On the LME, dealers were left frantically trying to recoup missed margin calls from clients who couldn&#39;t pay, and at least one had to seek financial support from its parent company.</p><p>Yet with unprecedented chaos rippling through the industry, Mr Xiang - still facing his bankers in the early hours of March 9 - had a key advantage. They were more terrified than he was.</p><p>If he refused to pay, they would have to chase him in courts in Indonesia and China. What&#39;s more, he had executed his nickel trade through a variety of corporate entities - such as the Hong Kong branch of battery unit Ruipu Energy - and it wasn&#39;t clear the banks would even have the right to seize Tsingshan&#39;s most valuable assets.</p><p>JPMorgan, which had the biggest exposure, took the lead. The group included some international players like Standard Chartered Bank and BNP Paribas, but many were Chinese and Singaporean banks that had little experience handling a situation like this.</p><h2>Personal guarantee</h2><p>Mr Xiang told the assembled bankers he had no intention of closing the position anywhere near US$50,000. A few hours later he was delivering the same message to Matthew Chamberlain, chief executive of the LME. Tsingshan was a strong company, he said, and it had the support of the Chinese government. There would be no backing down.</p><p>Instead, he wrote a list of the assets he was willing to put up as collateral: a string of ferronickel plants in Indonesia. But for some of the bankers, that wasn&#39;t enough. They wouldn&#39;t be able to do any due diligence on the Indonesian assets for weeks or months, and even those who worked closely with Tsingshan hadn&#39;t seen the facilities for years because of the pandemic.</p><p>So Mr Xiang made a further concession that was both valuable and, in Chinese business culture, humbling: a personal guarantee. If Tsingshan didn&#39;t pay its debts, the bankers could turf him out of his home. That was what he was willing to offer. Take it or leave it.</p><p>More On This TopicMetal traders reel as nickel chaos recalls market&#39;s darkest daysLondon Metal Exchange CEO calls for more powers to intervene as nickel trading halt continues</p><p>It wasn&#39;t much of a choice. On March 14, a week after the chaos that engulfed the nickel market, Tsingshan announced a deal with its banks under which they agreed not to pursue the company for the billions it owed for a period of time. In exchange, Mr Xiang agreed a series of price levels at which he would reduce his nickel position once prices dropped below about US$30,000.</p><p>When the market reopened two days later, prices moved lower, easing the strain on Mr Xiang and the banks. A brief dip below US$30,000 allowed Tsingshan to cover about 20 per cent of its short position.</p><p>The pressure on the LME was only intensifying, however. The exchange&#39;s regulators launched reviews of its governance and oversight and many hedge funds were still furious at the LME&#39;s decision to cancel trades.Open interest across the exchange&#39;s six main metals slid to the lowest in more than a decade as traders headed for the exit.</p><p>Each month, Tsingshan and its banks reviewed their standstill agreement. After the initial dip, nickel spent long stretches in limbo with prices hovering around US$33,000.</p><p>It was a nervous time. Tsingshan still had a vast short position, meaning it and its banks could still be exposed to large losses if prices started rising again - for example, if sanctions against Russia led to an actual disruption in nickel supplies, which so far they hadn&#39;t.</p><p>Finally, in May, prices tumbled decisively below the key US$30,000 level after China&#39;s lockdowns dented metals market sentiment. Over the following weeks, Tsingshan reduced its position - which in early March had been over 150,000 tons - to just 60,000 tons.</p><p>By this point, prices were below the level at which Tsingshan had stopped being able to pay its margin calls in early March, which meant Mr Xiang no longer owed the banks any money.</p><p>By the end of June Mr Xiang had exited his position entirely with JPMorgan and several other banks, leaving him with a remaining short of less than 20,000 tons.</p><p>People familiar with the matter estimate Tsingshan&#39;s losses on the trade at around US$1 billion. Mr Xiang isn&#39;t concerned. The loss has been roughly offset by the profits of his nickel operations over the same period. The standstill agreement, which Mr Xiang extended from the initial three months, is set to expire in mid-July.</p><p>Now &#39;Big Shot&#39; is moving on with his life, focusing on plans for the future at Tsingshan, which had revenues of US$56 billion last year. His ability to trade on the LME may be reduced, for now at least, but he is still able to trade on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has ambitions to expand, not only in Asia, but also to Africa. And Tsingshan is as powerful as ever in the nickel market: a massive increase in production from his plants in Indonesia is one of the key factors driving prices lower, much as Mr Xiang predicted.</p><p>But while Mr Xiang may be moving on, the LME is still dealing with the fallout. Regulators have pointed to the chaos in nickel as a sign of the risks lurking in commodity markets, and called for greater oversight of the entire sector. Hedge fund Elliot Investment Management and trading firm Jane Street have launched legal action against the LME, seeking nearly US$500 million.</p><p>And the nickel market is still broken, say people involved in it, with both open interest and trading volumes stuck at sharply lower levels as traders step away from using LME prices in their contracts. Jim Lennon, a veteran nickel market-watcher and managing director of Red Door Research, estimates that less than 25 per cent of global nickel output is now being sold on the basis of LME prices, down from 50 per cent before the crisis in March.</p><p>&#34;A lot of the industry now has temporarily disengaged from the LME,&#34; he says. &#34;The market is still functioning, but it&#39;s struggling.&#34;</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tycoon Whose Bet Broke the Nickel Market Walks Away a Billionaire</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTycoon Whose Bet Broke the Nickel Market Walks Away a Billionaire\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-17 09:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/tycoon-whose-bet-broke-the-nickel-market-walks-away-a-billionaire><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) --By 2.08pm Shanghai time on March 8, it was clear that Xiang Guangda's giant bet on a fall in nickel prices was going spectacularly wrong.Futures had just skyrocketed above US$...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/tycoon-whose-bet-broke-the-nickel-market-walks-away-a-billionaire\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIC.AU":"Nickel Industries Ltd","NICK.UK":"镍ETF","JJN":"镍ETN-iPath"},"source_url":"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/tycoon-whose-bet-broke-the-nickel-market-walks-away-a-billionaire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249540083","content_text":"SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) --By 2.08pm Shanghai time on March 8, it was clear that Xiang Guangda's giant bet on a fall in nickel prices was going spectacularly wrong.Futures had just skyrocketed above US$100,000 a ton and his trade was more than US$10 billion underwater. It was threatening not only to bankrupt Mr Xiang's company, but to trigger a Lehman Brothers-like shock through the entire metals industry and possibly topple the London Metal Exchange (LME) itself.But Mr Xiang was calm. Within hours, more than 50 bankers had arrived at his office wanting to hear how he planned to respond to the crisis. He told them simply: \"I'm confident that we will overcome this.\"And he did.Four months on, the nickel price is falling, as Mr Xiang had predicted. The coterie of banks led by JPMorgan Chase & Co that were baying for his blood has been repaid. He has closed out nearly all his short position in nickel, making a loss on the trade of about US$1 billion - a manageable sum given the profits being generated elsewhere in his business empire, say people who know him.Crucially: the man nicknamed 'Big Shot' in Chinese commodities circles is poised to walk away from the fiasco with his multibillion-dollar mining and steelmaking company, Tsingshan Holding Group, intact and even expanding.But while Mr Xiang moves on, others are left dealing with the destruction wrought by the crisis. His miraculous escape was thanks in no small part to the actions of the LME, which controversially intervened to prevent prices from rising and then suspended trading until Mr Xiang had struck a deal with his banks.Those on the other side of the trade, who lost billions, were furious. Months later, the LME is dealing with a raft of investigations and lawsuits, and the nickel market is still reeling.\"Nice to see that @jpmorgan and The Big Shot got out of this whole thing with only scratches,\" Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital Management, said last week in a tweet thick with sarcasm. \"It's just heart warming.\"This account of how Mr Xiang extricated himself from a short squeeze that rocked the global metals markets is based on numerous interviews with people who were involved, all of whom requested anonymity. Multiple attempts to seek comment from Tsingshan were unsuccessful.Massive short squeezeMr Xiang had built up his massive short position in late 2021 and early 2022 partly as a hedge, partly as a bet that a planned jump in Tsingshan's production this year would drag down prices. But when Russia's invasion of Ukraine jolted global markets, nickel started climbing - gradually at first, before rocketing 250 per cent in an epic squeeze.On the evening of March 8, senior bankers crowded into a room at Tsingshan's headquarters demanding answers. Others dialed in for video calls from London or Singapore. Of those present, some didn't leave until early the next morning.More On This TopicXiang Guangda, the metals 'visionary' who brought nickel market to a standstillNickel trading halted after unprecedented 250% spike amid Russia supply fearsThe crowd that night was so large because Mr Xiang's position was spread across about 10 banks and brokers - he had been a good client for many of them, including JPMorgan, for years. But after nickel started spiking on March 7, Tsingshan struggled to meet its margin calls. Now he owed each of them hundreds of millions of dollars.The LME had eventually intervened to halt trading a couple of hours after nickel hit US$100,000. It also canceled billions of dollars of transactions, bringing the price back to US$48,078, where it closed the previous day, in what amounted to a lifeline for Mr Xiang and Tsingshan.To reopen the market, the LME proposed a solution: Mr Xiang should strike a deal with holders of long positions to close out his trade. But a price of around US$50,000 would be more than twice the level at which he had entered his short position, and would mean accepting billions of dollars in losses.Mr Xiang, who is in his early 60s, stood firm. From a start making frames for car doors and windows in Wenzhou, eastern China, he'd built Tsingshan into the world's largest nickel and stainless steel producer, with an empire stretching from mines in remote Indonesian islands to steel mills on China's east coast. Along the way, he'd acquired a reputation for visionary thinking and a taste for betting big.The spike in prices and the trading freeze caused havoc for companies that use nickel, like stainless steel mills and makers of batteries for electric vehicles. Some simply stopped taking new orders. On the LME, dealers were left frantically trying to recoup missed margin calls from clients who couldn't pay, and at least one had to seek financial support from its parent company.Yet with unprecedented chaos rippling through the industry, Mr Xiang - still facing his bankers in the early hours of March 9 - had a key advantage. They were more terrified than he was.If he refused to pay, they would have to chase him in courts in Indonesia and China. What's more, he had executed his nickel trade through a variety of corporate entities - such as the Hong Kong branch of battery unit Ruipu Energy - and it wasn't clear the banks would even have the right to seize Tsingshan's most valuable assets.JPMorgan, which had the biggest exposure, took the lead. The group included some international players like Standard Chartered Bank and BNP Paribas, but many were Chinese and Singaporean banks that had little experience handling a situation like this.Personal guaranteeMr Xiang told the assembled bankers he had no intention of closing the position anywhere near US$50,000. A few hours later he was delivering the same message to Matthew Chamberlain, chief executive of the LME. Tsingshan was a strong company, he said, and it had the support of the Chinese government. There would be no backing down.Instead, he wrote a list of the assets he was willing to put up as collateral: a string of ferronickel plants in Indonesia. But for some of the bankers, that wasn't enough. They wouldn't be able to do any due diligence on the Indonesian assets for weeks or months, and even those who worked closely with Tsingshan hadn't seen the facilities for years because of the pandemic.So Mr Xiang made a further concession that was both valuable and, in Chinese business culture, humbling: a personal guarantee. If Tsingshan didn't pay its debts, the bankers could turf him out of his home. That was what he was willing to offer. Take it or leave it.More On This TopicMetal traders reel as nickel chaos recalls market's darkest daysLondon Metal Exchange CEO calls for more powers to intervene as nickel trading halt continuesIt wasn't much of a choice. On March 14, a week after the chaos that engulfed the nickel market, Tsingshan announced a deal with its banks under which they agreed not to pursue the company for the billions it owed for a period of time. In exchange, Mr Xiang agreed a series of price levels at which he would reduce his nickel position once prices dropped below about US$30,000.When the market reopened two days later, prices moved lower, easing the strain on Mr Xiang and the banks. A brief dip below US$30,000 allowed Tsingshan to cover about 20 per cent of its short position.The pressure on the LME was only intensifying, however. The exchange's regulators launched reviews of its governance and oversight and many hedge funds were still furious at the LME's decision to cancel trades.Open interest across the exchange's six main metals slid to the lowest in more than a decade as traders headed for the exit.Each month, Tsingshan and its banks reviewed their standstill agreement. After the initial dip, nickel spent long stretches in limbo with prices hovering around US$33,000.It was a nervous time. Tsingshan still had a vast short position, meaning it and its banks could still be exposed to large losses if prices started rising again - for example, if sanctions against Russia led to an actual disruption in nickel supplies, which so far they hadn't.Finally, in May, prices tumbled decisively below the key US$30,000 level after China's lockdowns dented metals market sentiment. Over the following weeks, Tsingshan reduced its position - which in early March had been over 150,000 tons - to just 60,000 tons.By this point, prices were below the level at which Tsingshan had stopped being able to pay its margin calls in early March, which meant Mr Xiang no longer owed the banks any money.By the end of June Mr Xiang had exited his position entirely with JPMorgan and several other banks, leaving him with a remaining short of less than 20,000 tons.People familiar with the matter estimate Tsingshan's losses on the trade at around US$1 billion. Mr Xiang isn't concerned. The loss has been roughly offset by the profits of his nickel operations over the same period. The standstill agreement, which Mr Xiang extended from the initial three months, is set to expire in mid-July.Now 'Big Shot' is moving on with his life, focusing on plans for the future at Tsingshan, which had revenues of US$56 billion last year. His ability to trade on the LME may be reduced, for now at least, but he is still able to trade on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has ambitions to expand, not only in Asia, but also to Africa. And Tsingshan is as powerful as ever in the nickel market: a massive increase in production from his plants in Indonesia is one of the key factors driving prices lower, much as Mr Xiang predicted.But while Mr Xiang may be moving on, the LME is still dealing with the fallout. Regulators have pointed to the chaos in nickel as a sign of the risks lurking in commodity markets, and called for greater oversight of the entire sector. Hedge fund Elliot Investment Management and trading firm Jane Street have launched legal action against the LME, seeking nearly US$500 million.And the nickel market is still broken, say people involved in it, with both open interest and trading volumes stuck at sharply lower levels as traders step away from using LME prices in their contracts. Jim Lennon, a veteran nickel market-watcher and managing director of Red Door Research, estimates that less than 25 per cent of global nickel output is now being sold on the basis of LME prices, down from 50 per cent before the crisis in March.\"A lot of the industry now has temporarily disengaged from the LME,\" he says. \"The market is still functioning, but it's struggling.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9068288017,"gmtCreate":1651787158739,"gmtModify":1676534967268,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068288017","repostId":"1161742465","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161742465","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651763586,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161742465?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-05 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow Tumbles 1,000 Points, Nasdaq Drops More Than 4% as Wall Street Sell-Off Intensifies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161742465","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stocks fell sharply on Thursday, erasing the gains seen in the previous session after the Federal Re","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks fell sharply on Thursday, erasing the gains seen in the previous session after the Federal Reserve raised rates by half a point.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 890 points, or 2.6%. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 3.1% and 4.2%, respectively.</p><p>The moves come after a major rally for stocks on Wednesday. The Dow surged 932 points, or 2.81%, and the S&amp;P 500 gained 2.99% for their biggest gains since 2020. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.19%.</p><p>The Fed increased its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, as expected, and said it would begin reducing its balance sheet in June. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during his news conference that the central bank is “not actively considering” a larger 75 basis point rate hike, which appeared to spark a rally.</p><p>Still, the Fed remains open to the prospect of taking rates above neutral to rein in inflation, Zachary Hill, head of portfolio strategy at Horizon Investments, noted.</p><p>“Despite the tightening that we have seen in financial conditions over the last few months, it is clear that the Fed would like to see them tighten further,” he said. “Higher equity valuations are incompatible with that desire, so unless supply chains heal rapidly or workers flood back into the labor force, any equity rallies are likely on borrowed time as Fed messaging becomes more hawkish once again.”</p><p>Large tech stocks were under pressure, with Facebook-parent Meta Platforms and Amazon falling 5.8% and 7.1%, respectively. Microsoft dropped 4.7%. Salesforce tumbled 6.3%.</p><p>E-commerce stocks were a key source of weakness on Thursday following some disappointing quarterly reports.</p><p>Etsy and eBay dropped 15% and 8%, respectively, after issuing weaker-than-expected revenue guidance. Shopify fell more than 17% after missing estimates on the top and bottom lines.</p><p>The Treasury market also saw a dramatic reversal of Wednesday’s rally. The 10-year Treasury yield, which moves opposite of price, surged back above 3% on Thursday morning and hit its highest level since 2018. Rising rates can put pressure on growth-oriented tech stocks, as they make far-off earnings less attractive to investors.</p><p>Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein said investors need to get “back to reality” about the headwinds for markets and the economy, including the war in Russia and high inflation.</p><p>“We’re also looking at 50-basis-point increases the next two FOMC meetings. So we are going to be tightening a bit. I don’t think that is going to be tightening so much so that we’re going slow down the economy. ... but we still have to recognize that we have some real economic challenges in the United States,” Rubenstein said Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”</p><p>Some Wall Street strategists had suggested markets could see a relief rally after the rate increase. After Powell’s comments, investors seemed at ease about the central bank’s ability to slow inflation without triggering a recession. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched their lowest levels of the year earlier this week after a rough April for stocks, possibly making some areas of the market oversold and primed for a short-term bounce.</p><p>In economic data, weekly jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected and labor productivity dropped 7.5% in the first quarter for its fastest decline since 1947.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow Tumbles 1,000 Points, Nasdaq Drops More Than 4% as Wall Street Sell-Off Intensifies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow Tumbles 1,000 Points, Nasdaq Drops More Than 4% as Wall Street Sell-Off Intensifies\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-05 23:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks fell sharply on Thursday, erasing the gains seen in the previous session after the Federal Reserve raised rates by half a point.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 890 points, or 2.6%. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 3.1% and 4.2%, respectively.</p><p>The moves come after a major rally for stocks on Wednesday. The Dow surged 932 points, or 2.81%, and the S&amp;P 500 gained 2.99% for their biggest gains since 2020. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.19%.</p><p>The Fed increased its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, as expected, and said it would begin reducing its balance sheet in June. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during his news conference that the central bank is “not actively considering” a larger 75 basis point rate hike, which appeared to spark a rally.</p><p>Still, the Fed remains open to the prospect of taking rates above neutral to rein in inflation, Zachary Hill, head of portfolio strategy at Horizon Investments, noted.</p><p>“Despite the tightening that we have seen in financial conditions over the last few months, it is clear that the Fed would like to see them tighten further,” he said. “Higher equity valuations are incompatible with that desire, so unless supply chains heal rapidly or workers flood back into the labor force, any equity rallies are likely on borrowed time as Fed messaging becomes more hawkish once again.”</p><p>Large tech stocks were under pressure, with Facebook-parent Meta Platforms and Amazon falling 5.8% and 7.1%, respectively. Microsoft dropped 4.7%. Salesforce tumbled 6.3%.</p><p>E-commerce stocks were a key source of weakness on Thursday following some disappointing quarterly reports.</p><p>Etsy and eBay dropped 15% and 8%, respectively, after issuing weaker-than-expected revenue guidance. Shopify fell more than 17% after missing estimates on the top and bottom lines.</p><p>The Treasury market also saw a dramatic reversal of Wednesday’s rally. The 10-year Treasury yield, which moves opposite of price, surged back above 3% on Thursday morning and hit its highest level since 2018. Rising rates can put pressure on growth-oriented tech stocks, as they make far-off earnings less attractive to investors.</p><p>Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein said investors need to get “back to reality” about the headwinds for markets and the economy, including the war in Russia and high inflation.</p><p>“We’re also looking at 50-basis-point increases the next two FOMC meetings. So we are going to be tightening a bit. I don’t think that is going to be tightening so much so that we’re going slow down the economy. ... but we still have to recognize that we have some real economic challenges in the United States,” Rubenstein said Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”</p><p>Some Wall Street strategists had suggested markets could see a relief rally after the rate increase. After Powell’s comments, investors seemed at ease about the central bank’s ability to slow inflation without triggering a recession. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched their lowest levels of the year earlier this week after a rough April for stocks, possibly making some areas of the market oversold and primed for a short-term bounce.</p><p>In economic data, weekly jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected and labor productivity dropped 7.5% in the first quarter for its fastest decline since 1947.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161742465","content_text":"Stocks fell sharply on Thursday, erasing the gains seen in the previous session after the Federal Reserve raised rates by half a point.The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 890 points, or 2.6%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 3.1% and 4.2%, respectively.The moves come after a major rally for stocks on Wednesday. The Dow surged 932 points, or 2.81%, and the S&P 500 gained 2.99% for their biggest gains since 2020. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.19%.The Fed increased its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, as expected, and said it would begin reducing its balance sheet in June. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during his news conference that the central bank is “not actively considering” a larger 75 basis point rate hike, which appeared to spark a rally.Still, the Fed remains open to the prospect of taking rates above neutral to rein in inflation, Zachary Hill, head of portfolio strategy at Horizon Investments, noted.“Despite the tightening that we have seen in financial conditions over the last few months, it is clear that the Fed would like to see them tighten further,” he said. “Higher equity valuations are incompatible with that desire, so unless supply chains heal rapidly or workers flood back into the labor force, any equity rallies are likely on borrowed time as Fed messaging becomes more hawkish once again.”Large tech stocks were under pressure, with Facebook-parent Meta Platforms and Amazon falling 5.8% and 7.1%, respectively. Microsoft dropped 4.7%. Salesforce tumbled 6.3%.E-commerce stocks were a key source of weakness on Thursday following some disappointing quarterly reports.Etsy and eBay dropped 15% and 8%, respectively, after issuing weaker-than-expected revenue guidance. Shopify fell more than 17% after missing estimates on the top and bottom lines.The Treasury market also saw a dramatic reversal of Wednesday’s rally. The 10-year Treasury yield, which moves opposite of price, surged back above 3% on Thursday morning and hit its highest level since 2018. Rising rates can put pressure on growth-oriented tech stocks, as they make far-off earnings less attractive to investors.Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein said investors need to get “back to reality” about the headwinds for markets and the economy, including the war in Russia and high inflation.“We’re also looking at 50-basis-point increases the next two FOMC meetings. So we are going to be tightening a bit. I don’t think that is going to be tightening so much so that we’re going slow down the economy. ... but we still have to recognize that we have some real economic challenges in the United States,” Rubenstein said Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”Some Wall Street strategists had suggested markets could see a relief rally after the rate increase. After Powell’s comments, investors seemed at ease about the central bank’s ability to slow inflation without triggering a recession. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched their lowest levels of the year earlier this week after a rough April for stocks, possibly making some areas of the market oversold and primed for a short-term bounce.In economic data, weekly jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected and labor productivity dropped 7.5% in the first quarter for its fastest decline since 1947.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086026345,"gmtCreate":1650407149360,"gmtModify":1676534713645,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086026345","repostId":"1134362695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134362695","pubTimestamp":1650382064,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134362695?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-19 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134362695","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can&#39;t imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder&#39;s high growth expectations.</li><li>Charlie Munger sold half of his BABA shares, sensing the rough patch ahead.</li><li>BABA&#39;s volatility will sure test the loyalty of Softbank, BABA&#39;s largest shareholder.</li></ul><p>Executive Summary</p><p>This year, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) faces multiple revenue headwinds hampering its growth prospects. Management&#39;s growth initiatives have long-run potential but are too small to make a meaningful difference in the short and medium run. Alibaba&#39;s growth-oriented shareholder base will exacerbate a volatile market reaction over what we see as a disappointing earnings release in May.</p><p>Investment Thesis</p><p>News of Charlie Mungersellingsignificant portions of his Alibaba position doesn&#39;t come as a surprise. My last two articles offered a rebuttal of The Daily Journal (DJCO) mogul&#39;s investment thesis touting Alibaba&#39;s shares on news media, citing competitive advantage, growth, and &#34;value for the dollar invested.&#34; Hearing him, I realized that his investment thesis needed updating and, more importantly, how oblivious Alibaba&#39;s investors are to its new realities.</p><p>Until recently, Alibaba abused its market position to force merchants to sign exclusivity agreements, prohibiting them from marketing products on other platforms. What Charlie Munger thought was &#34;competitive advantage&#34; is, to a large extent, a monopoly that has come to an end after a brutal corruption and regulatory crackdown.</p><p>Munger also mentions a &#34;higher value of a dollar invested&#34; in Alibaba than its US and European counterparts. This hypothesis was true six months ago, but today, there are many western tech companies trading at discounts after the growth-to-value rotation.</p><p>Finally, the growth argument is also no longer helpful because of a maturing core segment and the low revenue base of growth drivers such as Cloud and the international market. The Q3 (December quarter) mediocre revenue growth mirrors these dynamics.</p><p>Revenue Trends</p><p>Alibaba investors should prepare for volatile quarterly results this May. Realizing the rough patch ahead, Munger shrank his position, and you should consider doing the same. As always, be careful using leverage. Contrary to popular opinion, Alibaba is not necessarily at the bottom.</p><p>Last month, growth-hungry shareholders weren&#39;t kind to the ticker after disappointing topline results, pushing shares to multi-year lows. Regardless of how much data and price multiples support your hypothesis, nothing can prevent shares from dipping again. Market prices are determined by supply and demand, and I believe there is a discrepancy between what Alibaba can deliver and what its shareholders expect in terms of growth.</p><p>The company faces three main headwinds:</p><ol><li>Macro-economic challenges</li><li>Maturing Chinese Market</li><li>Rising Competition</li></ol><p>The zero-COVID policy is squeezing China consumers, dragging down consumer confidence. Google &#34;China Lockdown,&#34; and you&#39;ll find chilling videos of desperate Chinese citizens struggling with lockdowns. In this video, Shanghai residents are heard screaming from their balconies in protest of the lockdowns, and they don&#39;t seem in the mood for shopping on Alibaba. Instead, they appear more concerned about increasing prices, lack of income, depleting savings, food shortages, and inadequate food rations. The economic environment is not accommodative for Alibaba to meet Wall Street&#39;s 33% 2022 revenue growth expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59845a06664129959a3d7afc696f959b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha)</p><p>Alibaba&#39;s macroeconomic challenges are the least of its troubles. One might argue that business cycles are temporary, similar to COVID policies, despite their short-term impact on this year&#39;s revenue. This would make a solid contrarian strategy, especially for those with a stomach to sit on losses for long periods of time, if it wasn&#39;t for the fundamental, long-term revenue disruption impacting Alibaba.</p><p>The China e-commerce &#34;CEC&#34; segment constitutes 70% of Alibaba&#39;s revenue. Annual active users now stand at 937 million against a total population of 1.4 billion, with 260 million below the age of 15, pointing to a saturated market. Last quarter, CEC grew 7%, a disappointing figure given it includes inorganic growth from the Sun Art acquisition, mirroring demographic challenges facing its core segment.</p><p>Management is trying to find growth in rural China. However, sales data from its competitor, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), which focuses on this market and posts 900 million annual active users, points to a weak purchasing power that is not enough to create meaningful growth.</p><p>The same goes for cloud computing and international markets, which, together with rural China expansion, represent the company&#39;s official growth strategy. The Cloud and International Segment represent 8% and 7% of total revenue. For these segments to compensate for a 10% decrease in core operations, both need to grow by 50% just for revenue to remain constant, still a hard-to-swallow proposition for a growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p>I don&#39;t believe that those buying the dip had enough time to analyze and study the company&#39;s revenue trends and drivers. Alibaba&#39;s fall was abrupt, accelerated by a brutal anti-monopoly crackdown that permanently changed the IT competitive landscape in favor of smaller peers. While new investors are showing courage in buying the dip, management is terrified, as reflected in merchant subsidies, which dragged net income 74% last quarter in an unsustainable attempt to maintain revenue and users.</p><p>Cash Flow And Share Buybacks</p><p>Fundamentally, Alibaba&#39;s business model is sound, generating lucrative, scalable operating cash flows that encouraged the e-commerce giant to extend a share buyback program last month. Alibaba&#39;s challenges stem from its inability to manage investors&#39; expectations. Historically, Alibaba attracted a growth-oriented shareholder base, and now that its core operations are maturing, management is finding it hard to communicate its transitionary state to shareholders. Investor presentations still market Alibaba as a growth company.</p><p>The problem is that many are falling for it. A few weeks ago, Kevin O&#39;Leary was touting his new Alibaba position, citing the growth potential of Chinese tech. Munger and O&#39;Leary are representative of this growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p>How Loyal Is Softbank</p><p>SoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY) owns about a third of Alibaba&#39;s share, rendering the Japanese financial giant its largest shareholder. Softbank is known for its risk-taking and support for emerging tech companies. However, its participation in early capital-raising cycles means the dollar-average price of its position is far less than ordinary investors. For example, in FQ4 2021, Softbank reported a $558 million gain on selling some Alibaba shares, despite the ticker&#39;s selloff.</p><p>Softbank is facing renewed capitalization issues. The Japanese lender might be forced to sell Alibaba stock, especially if shares tumble further after a potentially disappointing earnings release. One thing is for sure, and the current situation is testing Softbank&#39;s loyalty to Alibaba.</p><p>Summary</p><p>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can&#39;t imagine a scenario where Alibaba delivers on its shareholder&#39;s high growth expectations. The Chinese economy, where Alibaba generates most of its income, struggles with rising COVID cases and rigid lockdown rules. The timing couldn&#39;t be worse for Alibaba, currently toiling with new regulations that stripped it from its &#34;competitive advantage.&#34; The core segment, i.e., China e-commerce, has reached maturity with 973 million users.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-19 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134362695","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold half of his BABA shares, sensing the rough patch ahead.BABA's volatility will sure test the loyalty of Softbank, BABA's largest shareholder.Executive SummaryThis year, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) faces multiple revenue headwinds hampering its growth prospects. Management's growth initiatives have long-run potential but are too small to make a meaningful difference in the short and medium run. Alibaba's growth-oriented shareholder base will exacerbate a volatile market reaction over what we see as a disappointing earnings release in May.Investment ThesisNews of Charlie Mungersellingsignificant portions of his Alibaba position doesn't come as a surprise. My last two articles offered a rebuttal of The Daily Journal (DJCO) mogul's investment thesis touting Alibaba's shares on news media, citing competitive advantage, growth, and \"value for the dollar invested.\" Hearing him, I realized that his investment thesis needed updating and, more importantly, how oblivious Alibaba's investors are to its new realities.Until recently, Alibaba abused its market position to force merchants to sign exclusivity agreements, prohibiting them from marketing products on other platforms. What Charlie Munger thought was \"competitive advantage\" is, to a large extent, a monopoly that has come to an end after a brutal corruption and regulatory crackdown.Munger also mentions a \"higher value of a dollar invested\" in Alibaba than its US and European counterparts. This hypothesis was true six months ago, but today, there are many western tech companies trading at discounts after the growth-to-value rotation.Finally, the growth argument is also no longer helpful because of a maturing core segment and the low revenue base of growth drivers such as Cloud and the international market. The Q3 (December quarter) mediocre revenue growth mirrors these dynamics.Revenue TrendsAlibaba investors should prepare for volatile quarterly results this May. Realizing the rough patch ahead, Munger shrank his position, and you should consider doing the same. As always, be careful using leverage. Contrary to popular opinion, Alibaba is not necessarily at the bottom.Last month, growth-hungry shareholders weren't kind to the ticker after disappointing topline results, pushing shares to multi-year lows. Regardless of how much data and price multiples support your hypothesis, nothing can prevent shares from dipping again. Market prices are determined by supply and demand, and I believe there is a discrepancy between what Alibaba can deliver and what its shareholders expect in terms of growth.The company faces three main headwinds:Macro-economic challengesMaturing Chinese MarketRising CompetitionThe zero-COVID policy is squeezing China consumers, dragging down consumer confidence. Google \"China Lockdown,\" and you'll find chilling videos of desperate Chinese citizens struggling with lockdowns. In this video, Shanghai residents are heard screaming from their balconies in protest of the lockdowns, and they don't seem in the mood for shopping on Alibaba. Instead, they appear more concerned about increasing prices, lack of income, depleting savings, food shortages, and inadequate food rations. The economic environment is not accommodative for Alibaba to meet Wall Street's 33% 2022 revenue growth expectations.Alibaba Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha)Alibaba's macroeconomic challenges are the least of its troubles. One might argue that business cycles are temporary, similar to COVID policies, despite their short-term impact on this year's revenue. This would make a solid contrarian strategy, especially for those with a stomach to sit on losses for long periods of time, if it wasn't for the fundamental, long-term revenue disruption impacting Alibaba.The China e-commerce \"CEC\" segment constitutes 70% of Alibaba's revenue. Annual active users now stand at 937 million against a total population of 1.4 billion, with 260 million below the age of 15, pointing to a saturated market. Last quarter, CEC grew 7%, a disappointing figure given it includes inorganic growth from the Sun Art acquisition, mirroring demographic challenges facing its core segment.Management is trying to find growth in rural China. However, sales data from its competitor, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), which focuses on this market and posts 900 million annual active users, points to a weak purchasing power that is not enough to create meaningful growth.The same goes for cloud computing and international markets, which, together with rural China expansion, represent the company's official growth strategy. The Cloud and International Segment represent 8% and 7% of total revenue. For these segments to compensate for a 10% decrease in core operations, both need to grow by 50% just for revenue to remain constant, still a hard-to-swallow proposition for a growth-hungry shareholder base.I don't believe that those buying the dip had enough time to analyze and study the company's revenue trends and drivers. Alibaba's fall was abrupt, accelerated by a brutal anti-monopoly crackdown that permanently changed the IT competitive landscape in favor of smaller peers. While new investors are showing courage in buying the dip, management is terrified, as reflected in merchant subsidies, which dragged net income 74% last quarter in an unsustainable attempt to maintain revenue and users.Cash Flow And Share BuybacksFundamentally, Alibaba's business model is sound, generating lucrative, scalable operating cash flows that encouraged the e-commerce giant to extend a share buyback program last month. Alibaba's challenges stem from its inability to manage investors' expectations. Historically, Alibaba attracted a growth-oriented shareholder base, and now that its core operations are maturing, management is finding it hard to communicate its transitionary state to shareholders. Investor presentations still market Alibaba as a growth company.The problem is that many are falling for it. A few weeks ago, Kevin O'Leary was touting his new Alibaba position, citing the growth potential of Chinese tech. Munger and O'Leary are representative of this growth-hungry shareholder base.How Loyal Is SoftbankSoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY) owns about a third of Alibaba's share, rendering the Japanese financial giant its largest shareholder. Softbank is known for its risk-taking and support for emerging tech companies. However, its participation in early capital-raising cycles means the dollar-average price of its position is far less than ordinary investors. For example, in FQ4 2021, Softbank reported a $558 million gain on selling some Alibaba shares, despite the ticker's selloff.Softbank is facing renewed capitalization issues. The Japanese lender might be forced to sell Alibaba stock, especially if shares tumble further after a potentially disappointing earnings release. One thing is for sure, and the current situation is testing Softbank's loyalty to Alibaba.SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where Alibaba delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations. The Chinese economy, where Alibaba generates most of its income, struggles with rising COVID cases and rigid lockdown rules. The timing couldn't be worse for Alibaba, currently toiling with new regulations that stripped it from its \"competitive advantage.\" The core segment, i.e., China e-commerce, has reached maturity with 973 million users.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011774091,"gmtCreate":1648945368512,"gmtModify":1676534424517,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011774091","repostId":"1164394533","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164394533","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648917046,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164394533?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-03 00:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Delivers 310,048 Electric Vehicles in the First Quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164394533","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"$Tesla$ just reported first-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2022.Here’s how they did.Electric vehicle deliveries : 310,048Electric vehicle production : 305,407Over the same period last year, Tesla delivered 184,800 electric vehicles and produced 180,338 cars.Tesla said it sold a total of 295,324 Model 3 sedans and Model Y sport utility vehicles, while it delivered 14,724 Model S luxury sedans and Model X premium SUVs.The company recently opened a new factory in Brandenburg, G","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> just reported first-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2022.</p><p>Here’s how they did.</p><p><b>Electric vehicle deliveries (total): 310,048</b></p><p><b>Electric vehicle production (total): 305,407</b></p><p>Over the same period last year, Tesla delivered 184,800 electric vehicles and produced 180,338 cars.</p><p>Tesla said it sold a total of 295,324 Model 3 sedans and Model Y sport utility vehicles, while it delivered 14,724 Model S luxury sedans and Model X premium SUVs.</p><p>The company recently opened a new factory in Brandenburg, Germany, and had a ribbon-cutting ceremony on March 22. Tesla also plans to host a grand opening and “cyber rodeo” event on April 7, at another new vehicle assembly plant it’s building in Austin, Texas.</p><p>Tesla moved its headquarters to Austin officially as of Dec. 1, but still operates its first electric car factory in Fremont, California.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Delivers 310,048 Electric Vehicles in the First Quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Delivers 310,048 Electric Vehicles in the First Quarter\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-03 00:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> just reported first-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2022.</p><p>Here’s how they did.</p><p><b>Electric vehicle deliveries (total): 310,048</b></p><p><b>Electric vehicle production (total): 305,407</b></p><p>Over the same period last year, Tesla delivered 184,800 electric vehicles and produced 180,338 cars.</p><p>Tesla said it sold a total of 295,324 Model 3 sedans and Model Y sport utility vehicles, while it delivered 14,724 Model S luxury sedans and Model X premium SUVs.</p><p>The company recently opened a new factory in Brandenburg, Germany, and had a ribbon-cutting ceremony on March 22. Tesla also plans to host a grand opening and “cyber rodeo” event on April 7, at another new vehicle assembly plant it’s building in Austin, Texas.</p><p>Tesla moved its headquarters to Austin officially as of Dec. 1, but still operates its first electric car factory in Fremont, California.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164394533","content_text":"Tesla just reported first-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2022.Here’s how they did.Electric vehicle deliveries (total): 310,048Electric vehicle production (total): 305,407Over the same period last year, Tesla delivered 184,800 electric vehicles and produced 180,338 cars.Tesla said it sold a total of 295,324 Model 3 sedans and Model Y sport utility vehicles, while it delivered 14,724 Model S luxury sedans and Model X premium SUVs.The company recently opened a new factory in Brandenburg, Germany, and had a ribbon-cutting ceremony on March 22. Tesla also plans to host a grand opening and “cyber rodeo” event on April 7, at another new vehicle assembly plant it’s building in Austin, Texas.Tesla moved its headquarters to Austin officially as of Dec. 1, but still operates its first electric car factory in Fremont, California.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916081718,"gmtCreate":1664489123934,"gmtModify":1676537462483,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916081718","repostId":"1152954810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152954810","pubTimestamp":1664466614,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152954810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 23:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Officials Reinforce Rate-Hike Calls, Say Markets Got Message","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152954810","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Bullard says markets have ‘digested’ message on rate hikesMester says rates are ‘still not even in r","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Bullard says markets have ‘digested’ message on rate hikes</li><li>Mester says rates are ‘still not even in restricted territory’</li></ul><p>Federal Reserve officials reiterated Thursday that they will keep raising interest rates to restrain high inflation, and that markets are now understanding the message.</p><p>“If you look at the dots, it does look like the committee is expecting a fair amount of additional moves this year,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told a virtual emerging-market forum, referring to the bank’s so-called dot plot of projections. “I think that that was digested by markets and does seem to be the right interpretation.”</p><p>Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester repeated that officials are resolute in their quest to increase rates to a level seen as restrictive.</p><p>“Real interest rates -- judged by the expectations over the next year of inflation -- have to be in positive territory and held there for a time,” she said earlier in an interview on CNBC. “We’re still not even in restricted territory on the funds rate.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/972431d8bf1881bb5d4349f65cfcd300\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Fed officials raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Sept. 21 for the third straight meeting, bringing the target for the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25%.</p><p>Their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, or dot plot, shows a median forecast of rates reaching 4.4% by the end of this year, implying a further 1.25 percentage points of tightening over their remaining two meetings in November and December.</p><p>Mester said her forecast is probably a bit above the median path because she sees inflation being persistent, based on her conversations with businesses, community development groups and other sources.</p><p>“In my SEP I have inflation coming down, but we have to bring interest rates up to get that downward shift in inflation,” she said, adding that the US economy has so far been able to handle the higher interest rates.</p><h3>UK Turmoil</h3><p>She drew a distinction between US markets and what is happening in the UK, where the Bank of England announced Wednesday that it would launch unlimited bond buying to address market dysfunction. When the Fed announced its bond purchases in the early months of the pandemic, it did so at a time when it was also lowering rates to support the economy, she said.</p><p>The BOE faces some communication issues because it is lifting rates but needed to purchase assets, which is typically viewed as a method for easing monetary policy, in order to support financial stability, Mester said.</p><p>“It’s a challenging situation for them,” Mester said. “For financial stability reasons and for market functioning reasons they had to go in and buy bonds.”</p><p>“Market functioning is incredibly important because you won’t be able to hit any monetary policy goals if the markets aren’t functioning,” she said. “That’s different than worrying about volatility in the markets.” Mester said that so far, there had been no sign of dysfunction in US financial markets.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Officials Reinforce Rate-Hike Calls, Say Markets Got Message</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Officials Reinforce Rate-Hike Calls, Say Markets Got Message\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-29 23:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/fed-s-bullard-says-markets-have-gotten-the-message-on-rate-hikes><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bullard says markets have ‘digested’ message on rate hikesMester says rates are ‘still not even in restricted territory’Federal Reserve officials reiterated Thursday that they will keep raising ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/fed-s-bullard-says-markets-have-gotten-the-message-on-rate-hikes\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/fed-s-bullard-says-markets-have-gotten-the-message-on-rate-hikes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152954810","content_text":"Bullard says markets have ‘digested’ message on rate hikesMester says rates are ‘still not even in restricted territory’Federal Reserve officials reiterated Thursday that they will keep raising interest rates to restrain high inflation, and that markets are now understanding the message.“If you look at the dots, it does look like the committee is expecting a fair amount of additional moves this year,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told a virtual emerging-market forum, referring to the bank’s so-called dot plot of projections. “I think that that was digested by markets and does seem to be the right interpretation.”Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester repeated that officials are resolute in their quest to increase rates to a level seen as restrictive.“Real interest rates -- judged by the expectations over the next year of inflation -- have to be in positive territory and held there for a time,” she said earlier in an interview on CNBC. “We’re still not even in restricted territory on the funds rate.”Fed officials raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Sept. 21 for the third straight meeting, bringing the target for the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25%.Their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, or dot plot, shows a median forecast of rates reaching 4.4% by the end of this year, implying a further 1.25 percentage points of tightening over their remaining two meetings in November and December.Mester said her forecast is probably a bit above the median path because she sees inflation being persistent, based on her conversations with businesses, community development groups and other sources.“In my SEP I have inflation coming down, but we have to bring interest rates up to get that downward shift in inflation,” she said, adding that the US economy has so far been able to handle the higher interest rates.UK TurmoilShe drew a distinction between US markets and what is happening in the UK, where the Bank of England announced Wednesday that it would launch unlimited bond buying to address market dysfunction. When the Fed announced its bond purchases in the early months of the pandemic, it did so at a time when it was also lowering rates to support the economy, she said.The BOE faces some communication issues because it is lifting rates but needed to purchase assets, which is typically viewed as a method for easing monetary policy, in order to support financial stability, Mester said.“It’s a challenging situation for them,” Mester said. “For financial stability reasons and for market functioning reasons they had to go in and buy bonds.”“Market functioning is incredibly important because you won’t be able to hit any monetary policy goals if the markets aren’t functioning,” she said. “That’s different than worrying about volatility in the markets.” Mester said that so far, there had been no sign of dysfunction in US financial markets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934500471,"gmtCreate":1663279593493,"gmtModify":1676537240156,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934500471","repostId":"1105919895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105919895","pubTimestamp":1663255268,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105919895?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105919895","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"$Nio(NIO)$ stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk i","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a> stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.</li><li>Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.</li><li>Given the downside risk if Nio fails to deliver, you may not want to chase this recent rally.</li></ul><p>Despite mixed quarterly results, Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock has been on the rise following its Sept. 7 earnings release. The main factor behind this has been a spate of analyst upgrades for shares in the China-based electric vehicle (EV) maker.</p><p>Confidence is rising again that the company’s production ramp-up will result in a big jump in sales for the rest of 2022, and going into 2023. Yet before you decide to jump in, and chase its recent rally, it’s hardly a lock that results in the coming quarter will live up to today’s elevated hopes.</p><p>The ramp-up may still fail to produce results in line with expectations. This may cause the stock to give back recent gains. In the long term, Nio’s global expansion could also fall short of expectations. With high growth heavily priced in, it may not take much for today’s renewed bullishness to reverse.</p><h3>Why NIO Stock Has Surged Post-Earnings</h3><p>Nio may have beat on revenue for the second quarter, but the results were hardly much to get excited about. As expected, China’s pandemic shutdowns continued to decelerate growth, on a year-over-year basis, and especially on a sequential basis.</p><p>Even worse, the EV maker reported a higher-than-expected net loss. Compared to the prior year’s quarter, net losses per share were up 316.4%. Still, instead of reacting negatively to Q2 results, the market focused instead on the company’s outlook for Q3, which calls for a speeding back up of growth.</p><p>This resulted in a slight uptick for NIO stock right after earnings but analyst upgrades sent shares soaring. As InvestorPlace’s Eddie Pan reported Sep 12, two analysts (Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu, and BofA’s Ming-Hsun Lee) have reiterated their “buy” ratings, and have upped their price targets.</p><p>Both analysts are bullish deliveries will re-accelerate considerably during Q4. This is due to a combination of the production ramp-up, plus Nio’s launch of new vehicle models. Yet while the situation may be improving, it may not be to the extent implied by the stock’s latest spike.</p><h3>How Its Latest Uptick Could Reverse</h3><p>As buzz returns to NIO stock, it may seem that now’s the time to buy, ahead of a continued comeback. Unfortunately, there’s a lot to suggest that its latest surge may be short-lived in nature. With its move back above $20 per share, the market has now priced in a possible growth re-acceleration as a near-certainty.</p><p>For the stock to keep moving higher, or at the very least avoid moving lower, Nio needs to both hit its own Q3 deliveries projection, plus hit Q4 numbers in line with the sell side’s expectations. Hitting its Q3 target may be attainable. Its monthly delivery numbers since June have come in above 10,000. Q4, though, may be a taller order.</p><p>In order to meet Edison Yu’s 2022 estimate, Nio needs to deliver 57,000 vehicles between October and December. That’s nearly double projected Q3 deliveries.</p><p>With increased production, new models, and Chinese government incentives, this may seem like a cinch. However, other factors, like China’s economic slowdown, could somewhat counter these positives.</p><p>In turn, causing delivery numbers for the months ahead to fall short of expectations. Even if it’s a near miss, it may cause the stock to give back its recent gains.</p><h3>The Verdict on NIO Stock</h3><p>Nio stock earns a D rating in my Portfolio Grader. Beyond pulling back in the short term, shares could also keep performing poorly in the coming years. Long-term bulls believe high growth will continue. Even as growth in its home market returns, they are confident international expansion will keep it in high-growth mode.</p><p>But only time will tell whether its first big expansion overseas (in Europe) proves successful. It may face greater competition in the China market. In Europe, it faces not just market leader Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), but competition from incumbent European luxury brands as well.</p><p>Failure in Europe may result in it scrapping its North American expansion plans. Without global expansion, it will be difficult for Nio to sustain, much less grow, its current valuation.</p><p>Given the downside risk of it failing to deliver in the coming quarter, you may not want to chase the recent NIO stock rally.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105919895","content_text":"Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio fails to deliver, you may not want to chase this recent rally.Despite mixed quarterly results, Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock has been on the rise following its Sept. 7 earnings release. The main factor behind this has been a spate of analyst upgrades for shares in the China-based electric vehicle (EV) maker.Confidence is rising again that the company’s production ramp-up will result in a big jump in sales for the rest of 2022, and going into 2023. Yet before you decide to jump in, and chase its recent rally, it’s hardly a lock that results in the coming quarter will live up to today’s elevated hopes.The ramp-up may still fail to produce results in line with expectations. This may cause the stock to give back recent gains. In the long term, Nio’s global expansion could also fall short of expectations. With high growth heavily priced in, it may not take much for today’s renewed bullishness to reverse.Why NIO Stock Has Surged Post-EarningsNio may have beat on revenue for the second quarter, but the results were hardly much to get excited about. As expected, China’s pandemic shutdowns continued to decelerate growth, on a year-over-year basis, and especially on a sequential basis.Even worse, the EV maker reported a higher-than-expected net loss. Compared to the prior year’s quarter, net losses per share were up 316.4%. Still, instead of reacting negatively to Q2 results, the market focused instead on the company’s outlook for Q3, which calls for a speeding back up of growth.This resulted in a slight uptick for NIO stock right after earnings but analyst upgrades sent shares soaring. As InvestorPlace’s Eddie Pan reported Sep 12, two analysts (Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu, and BofA’s Ming-Hsun Lee) have reiterated their “buy” ratings, and have upped their price targets.Both analysts are bullish deliveries will re-accelerate considerably during Q4. This is due to a combination of the production ramp-up, plus Nio’s launch of new vehicle models. Yet while the situation may be improving, it may not be to the extent implied by the stock’s latest spike.How Its Latest Uptick Could ReverseAs buzz returns to NIO stock, it may seem that now’s the time to buy, ahead of a continued comeback. Unfortunately, there’s a lot to suggest that its latest surge may be short-lived in nature. With its move back above $20 per share, the market has now priced in a possible growth re-acceleration as a near-certainty.For the stock to keep moving higher, or at the very least avoid moving lower, Nio needs to both hit its own Q3 deliveries projection, plus hit Q4 numbers in line with the sell side’s expectations. Hitting its Q3 target may be attainable. Its monthly delivery numbers since June have come in above 10,000. Q4, though, may be a taller order.In order to meet Edison Yu’s 2022 estimate, Nio needs to deliver 57,000 vehicles between October and December. That’s nearly double projected Q3 deliveries.With increased production, new models, and Chinese government incentives, this may seem like a cinch. However, other factors, like China’s economic slowdown, could somewhat counter these positives.In turn, causing delivery numbers for the months ahead to fall short of expectations. Even if it’s a near miss, it may cause the stock to give back its recent gains.The Verdict on NIO StockNio stock earns a D rating in my Portfolio Grader. Beyond pulling back in the short term, shares could also keep performing poorly in the coming years. Long-term bulls believe high growth will continue. Even as growth in its home market returns, they are confident international expansion will keep it in high-growth mode.But only time will tell whether its first big expansion overseas (in Europe) proves successful. It may face greater competition in the China market. In Europe, it faces not just market leader Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), but competition from incumbent European luxury brands as well.Failure in Europe may result in it scrapping its North American expansion plans. Without global expansion, it will be difficult for Nio to sustain, much less grow, its current valuation.Given the downside risk of it failing to deliver in the coming quarter, you may not want to chase the recent NIO stock rally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904947269,"gmtCreate":1659997324853,"gmtModify":1703476621020,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904947269","repostId":"1111364601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111364601","pubTimestamp":1659972720,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111364601?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-08 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 May Be Near The Most Dangerous Phase Of The Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111364601","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe bear market of 2022 has eerily similar characteristics of bear markets of the past.The 20","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The bear market of 2022 has eerily similar characteristics of bear markets of the past.</li><li>The 2022 bear market looks very similar to those in 1937, 2000, and 2008.</li><li>If the bear markets are similar, the 2022 version is nearing its most dangerous phase.</li></ul><p>History can act as a guide, not because it can predict the future, but because sometimes it can prepare us for what may happen next. Investing is very much about understanding the fundamentals and the technical trends. But the element that is lost most times is emotion, and it is the emotion of how people respond to news or events that seem to endure, shaping history.</p><p>Similarities in today&#39;s stock market and S&amp;P 500 (SP500) echo the great bear markets of the past. The 2022 S&amp;P 500 path has followed the paths of 1936, 2000, and 2008 cycles. It isn&#39;t to say that future is on a predetermined course; it is not. But it can give us a glimpse into what may happen next based on how bear markets and emotions have steered past performance.</p><p><b>1937</b></p><p>After rallying from March 1935 to March 1937, the S&amp;P 500 dropped sharply until the summer of 1937, by nearly 19%. That was when the index saw a solid summer rally, which lifted the S&amp;P 500 more than 14% off its lows, peaking around August 20, 1937. Following that summer rally, the market fell sharply, nearly 70% between September 1937 and April 1938.</p><p>Using a 31,065-day offset to overlay the S&amp;P 500 of today versus that bear market, we can see the S&amp;P 500 of today has plotted a very similar course to that of 1937. It would suggest that the S&amp;P 500 of today is likely to be hitting an inflection point in the next couple of weeks. It could result in the recent 2022 rally continuing, the comparison with 1937 no longer working, or the S&amp;P 500 of 2022 turning sharply lower as the market did in 1937.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf9e75e86ede6d5127a530f868dcedf3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>2000</b></p><p>The bear market that started in the year 2000 also shares many of the same properties as the S&amp;P 500 of today. In this case, using a 7874-day offset, the two charts will line up. Following the 1998 sell-off, the S&amp;P 500 rallied sharply until 2000. The S&amp;P 500 of 2000 was more resilient at first, retesting its March 2000 highs again in September 2000. After that, the index saw a pronounced sell-off, followed by a January 2001 rally. That January 2001 rally marked the final rebound, followed by a nearly 20% decline into April 2001.</p><p>Again, the market of today is at the same point in time. Therefore, if the S&amp;P 500 is going to turn lower and follow the path of 2000, that sharp decline could happen over the next couple of weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c67e3a7716980557c4c7d467f03d1b40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>2008</b></p><p>Finally, the bear market of 2008 seems to match the S&amp;P 500 of 2022 the most closely. A 5,218-day offset lines the double bottom in the fall of 2020 up with the double bottom in the spring of 2006. Like the two previous bear market examples, after peaking in October 2007, the S&amp;P 500 went lower on a slow and steady decline of nearly 19%. That was followed by a rally in the spring of 2008, which led to a gain of almost 12%. Of course, after that rally, the S&amp;P 500 again found itself turning lower, erasing the spring gains.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d85ceaf1cd7900663bbf9dbbe300dee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>Similarities</b></p><p>The declines may differ in each of these cases, but it isn&#39;t the reason that matters. It is the patterns the market followed that matter. When overlaying 1937, 2000, and 2008 all together on one chart, they show that the bull rally phases had nearly the same duration, with all peaking within a 6-month time frame, followed by a sharp decline, a very sharp countertrend rally followed by a significantly steeper decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c254a06087baa45767c1b5a5d0c6aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Does this mean the market of 2022 has to follow the same path? No, of course, it does not. But if this is a bear market we are in, and the pattern continues, the market may be entering the most dangerous part of the bear market. The part where a powerful rally catches everyone off guard and is followed by a sharp and sudden decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34566ce27f9a5b7d5ac6c173ee363be9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>What happens next for stocks is anyone&#39;s guess, and these charts do not tell us what that outcome will be. But the power of history and human emotion tells us what <i>may</i> happen next, and in this case, the answer may be staring us right in the face for all to see.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 May Be Near The Most Dangerous Phase Of The Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 May Be Near The Most Dangerous Phase Of The Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-08 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531046-sp-500-near-most-dangerous-phase-of-bear-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe bear market of 2022 has eerily similar characteristics of bear markets of the past.The 2022 bear market looks very similar to those in 1937, 2000, and 2008.If the bear markets are similar, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531046-sp-500-near-most-dangerous-phase-of-bear-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531046-sp-500-near-most-dangerous-phase-of-bear-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111364601","content_text":"SummaryThe bear market of 2022 has eerily similar characteristics of bear markets of the past.The 2022 bear market looks very similar to those in 1937, 2000, and 2008.If the bear markets are similar, the 2022 version is nearing its most dangerous phase.History can act as a guide, not because it can predict the future, but because sometimes it can prepare us for what may happen next. Investing is very much about understanding the fundamentals and the technical trends. But the element that is lost most times is emotion, and it is the emotion of how people respond to news or events that seem to endure, shaping history.Similarities in today's stock market and S&P 500 (SP500) echo the great bear markets of the past. The 2022 S&P 500 path has followed the paths of 1936, 2000, and 2008 cycles. It isn't to say that future is on a predetermined course; it is not. But it can give us a glimpse into what may happen next based on how bear markets and emotions have steered past performance.1937After rallying from March 1935 to March 1937, the S&P 500 dropped sharply until the summer of 1937, by nearly 19%. That was when the index saw a solid summer rally, which lifted the S&P 500 more than 14% off its lows, peaking around August 20, 1937. Following that summer rally, the market fell sharply, nearly 70% between September 1937 and April 1938.Using a 31,065-day offset to overlay the S&P 500 of today versus that bear market, we can see the S&P 500 of today has plotted a very similar course to that of 1937. It would suggest that the S&P 500 of today is likely to be hitting an inflection point in the next couple of weeks. It could result in the recent 2022 rally continuing, the comparison with 1937 no longer working, or the S&P 500 of 2022 turning sharply lower as the market did in 1937.Bloomberg2000The bear market that started in the year 2000 also shares many of the same properties as the S&P 500 of today. In this case, using a 7874-day offset, the two charts will line up. Following the 1998 sell-off, the S&P 500 rallied sharply until 2000. The S&P 500 of 2000 was more resilient at first, retesting its March 2000 highs again in September 2000. After that, the index saw a pronounced sell-off, followed by a January 2001 rally. That January 2001 rally marked the final rebound, followed by a nearly 20% decline into April 2001.Again, the market of today is at the same point in time. Therefore, if the S&P 500 is going to turn lower and follow the path of 2000, that sharp decline could happen over the next couple of weeks.Bloomberg2008Finally, the bear market of 2008 seems to match the S&P 500 of 2022 the most closely. A 5,218-day offset lines the double bottom in the fall of 2020 up with the double bottom in the spring of 2006. Like the two previous bear market examples, after peaking in October 2007, the S&P 500 went lower on a slow and steady decline of nearly 19%. That was followed by a rally in the spring of 2008, which led to a gain of almost 12%. Of course, after that rally, the S&P 500 again found itself turning lower, erasing the spring gains.BloombergSimilaritiesThe declines may differ in each of these cases, but it isn't the reason that matters. It is the patterns the market followed that matter. When overlaying 1937, 2000, and 2008 all together on one chart, they show that the bull rally phases had nearly the same duration, with all peaking within a 6-month time frame, followed by a sharp decline, a very sharp countertrend rally followed by a significantly steeper decline.BloombergDoes this mean the market of 2022 has to follow the same path? No, of course, it does not. But if this is a bear market we are in, and the pattern continues, the market may be entering the most dangerous part of the bear market. The part where a powerful rally catches everyone off guard and is followed by a sharp and sudden decline.BloombergWhat happens next for stocks is anyone's guess, and these charts do not tell us what that outcome will be. But the power of history and human emotion tells us what may happen next, and in this case, the answer may be staring us right in the face for all to see.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025624342,"gmtCreate":1653690178086,"gmtModify":1676535325698,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025624342","repostId":"2238387186","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238387186","pubTimestamp":1653660205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2238387186?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 22:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Earnings: Back Up The Truck","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238387186","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba just released its Q4 earnings, which beat on both revenue and adjusted EPS.Expectatio","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Alibaba just released its Q4 earnings, which beat on both revenue and adjusted EPS.</li><li>Expectations were low heading into the release.</li><li>At this point, BABA has gotten beaten down to the point of absurdity.</li><li>In this article I dissect Alibaba&#39;s Q4 earnings release and explain why I&#39;m still long despite all the challenges.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb3d9594de3e32459d994aa3977dc753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Michael Loccisano/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><b>Alibaba Group Holding Limited</b> (NYSE:BABA) just released its fourth quarter earnings. The release beat expectations on revenue as well as on EPS. The $3 billion year-over-year increase in revenue showed that BABA was able to crankout strong sales growth even amid China’s lockdowns and other macroeconomic headwinds.</p><p>Alibaba had a lot of things working in its favor going into its Q2 release. The company had negative earnings in the prior year quarter, which meant that the comparisons were soft this time around. The company was caught off guard by some lockdowns in major Chinese cities, but it wasn’t until Q2 (Alibaba’s fiscal Q1) that they became truly widespread. Additionally, BABA enjoyed a significant increase in web traffic in Q4 across virtually all of its online channels. Despite these two factors working in BABA’s favor, analysts still cut estimates repeatedly throughout the quarter, leading to weak expectations.</p><p>So, Alibaba had many advantages heading into this release. Which is why it was not surprising that earnings beat expectations. In Q4, Alibaba put most of its 2021 tech crackdown damage behind it. We’re beginning to see the effects of that today.</p><p>With a solid fourth quarter under its belt, Alibaba has a good foundation to build from. While the upcoming quarterly release is likely to be weak due to China’s heavy Q2 lockdowns, BABA will once again have soft comparisons in the September quarter. This lends credence to the idea that 2022 will be the year when Alibaba recovers–although the process may take longer than we initially thought.</p><p><b>Earnings Recap</b></p><p>For the fourth quarter, Alibaba delivered strong earnings, beating on both the top and bottom lines. Some highlights include:</p><ul><li><p>Revenue: $32.1 billion, up 9% (beat by $3 billion);</p></li><li><p>Operating income: $2.6 billion;</p></li><li><p>GAAP earnings: $-2.5 billion;</p></li><li><p>Adjusted earnings: $3.1 billion;</p></li><li><p>Diluted EPS: $1.25, down 23% (beat by $0.16);</p></li><li><p>Operating cash flow: $-1.1 billion.</p></li></ul><p>Pretty strong results, all things considered. Even with lockdowns taking place in the fourth quarter, Alibaba managed to grow its revenue by billions of dollars.</p><p>A few metrics in the release were particularly surprising, such as the 8% growth in core commerce. Going into the release, many investors expected the core eCommerce segment to weigh on results, as China was going through lockdowns in Q4. In past quarters, that segment underperformed relative to the cloud segment. This time around, that trend reversed. In Q4, Alibaba Cloud lost its biggest customer, which resulted in the segment growing by only 21%. Alibaba Cloud has long been considered a major potential growth driver for BABA, so its comparative under-performance in Q4 was a disappointment.</p><p>The cloud segment is worth exploring in detail. In the earnings release, BABA said that “a top customer” cut out its use of Alibaba cloud due to slowing demand in China. It did not specify the identity of the customer. The customer also apparently ceased using Alibaba Cloud in its international business, though it declined to say why. According to Alibaba, cloud growth would have been 29% had this customer not stopped using the service.</p><p>So, although Alibaba Cloud growth decelerated significantly in Q4, there is reason to think that it will pick up again. The 29% growth that Alibaba Cloud would have delivered had this customer still been in the picture would have been commensurate with past quarters, meaning that BABA would not have experienced deceleration. If Alibaba can get that customer back, then its growth could accelerate in the near future.</p><p><b>Competitors’ Results</b></p><p>To truly understand Alibaba’s Q4 results, we need to check in on how the company’s competitors have been doing. It’s well known that China’s government wants to increase competition in the tech sector, and this has been cited as a headwind for Alibaba. Given this, it makes sense to look at some of BABA’s competitors’ recent releases. Armed with this information, we can gauge how much of an advantage or disadvantage BABA has going forward.</p><p>First, let’s look at <b>JD.com, Inc.</b> (JD). JD’s earnings release was mixed. Revenue beat expectations, growing 18%, as did adjusted earnings. GAAP earnings, on the other hand, missed by a pretty wide margin, coming in at $-0.29, compared to $-0.02 expected. It wasn’t a great release, but the growth in revenue shows that one of BABA’s competitors is increasing its presence in the market. That could be thought of as a negative for BABA.</p><p>Next up we have <b>Pinduoduo Inc.</b> (PDD). PDD’s most recent release showed its slowest revenue growth in years. Coming in at 3%, the company’s revenue decelerated dramatically. That was definitely a positive for Alibaba. Pinduoduo’s popular group purchase model in agricultural goods could have made it a real competitor to BABA had it branched out into more product categories. Now that PDD’s growth is slowing down, it looks like the possible competitive threat has eased off. (<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1123192288\" target=\"_blank\">Pinduoduo has announced its quarterly results</a>)</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Alibaba’s Q4 results are particularly encouraging when we consider them along with the company’s valuation. Alibaba’s recent earnings beat expectations, yet the company’s stock is still very cheap, boasting valuation multiples like:</p><ul><li><p>Adjusted P/E: 9.5;</p></li><li><p>GAAP P/E: 21.9;</p></li><li><p>Price/sales: 1.69;</p></li><li><p>Price/book: 1.44;</p></li><li><p>Price/operating cash flow: 8.</p></li></ul><p>The above metrics strongly hint at a company that may be undervalued. BABA is, quite frankly, priced like it’s going out of business. Its price/book multiple is approaching a level where the company would be trading below the value of assets, net of debt, if its stock went much lower. In fact, Alibaba could reach the point where it’s trading below book value this quarter if its stock portfolio increases in value.</p><p>Alibaba is known to hold a lot of stocks and other marketable securities on its balance sheet. In recent quarters, this factor has been reducing the company’s GAAP earnings, as GAAP accounting rules state that you have to subtract mark-to-market losses on securities from net income, even if the losses weren’t realized. It’s a peculiar accounting rule that Warren Buffett has criticized due to it producing “earnings” that don’t reflect operating performance. It is true that mark-to-market accounting produces earnings that have nothing to do with business performance. However, this exact same factor could push BABA’s assets and earnings higher in the future, leading to an even lower price/book multiple and even greater perceived undervaluation.</p><p><b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p>As we’ve seen, Alibaba is a strong player in China’s eCommerce industry that just put out a better-than-expected earnings release. Its stock is also very cheap. Taking all of this together, one gets the sense of a great value.</p><p>However, there are several risks and challenges to keep in mind, including:</p><ul><li><p><b>June quarter earnings.</b>It’s quite likely that Alibaba’s June quarter earnings will be weak. There were at least two full months of severe lockdowns in several Chinese cities in Q1. At the peak, more than 400 million Chinese citizens were locked down. There were some lockdowns in the just-reported quarter, but they weren’t as strict, and they didn’t affect as many people. There are already early signs that the Q2 lockdowns hit BABA pretty hard. BABA’s web traffic severely declined in April after rising in March. This suggests that, possibly, Chinese citizens were spending less money due to lockdown-induced supply constraints, or income loss.</p></li><li><p><b>Lockdowns.</b>Related to the June quarter earnings release is the prospect of Chinese lockdowns in general. China still officially maintains a “Zero COVID policy” which means that it is willing to use lockdowns to combat even small numbers of cases. This can lead to less retail spending when it occurs, which is a bad thing for online retail platforms like the ones BABA operates.</p></li><li><p><b>A renewed tech regulation.</b>China’s tech regulation was the biggest single factor behind Alibaba’s crash in 2021. The regulation resulted in BABA taking a $2.8 billion fine, a tax hike, and a host of other challenges. At the start of this year, it was looking like the regulation was still ongoing. The government was just about to launch a new inquiry into Ant Group when the COVID outbreak hit and the anti-trust inquiries were put on hold. Since then, China’s policy has been to support the markets rather than pressure them. However, there is always the possibility that the regulation will flare up again. If it does, it could cost BABA some money.</p></li><li><p><b>The macro climate.</b>China’s macroeconomic environment could be considered a short term risk factor for Alibaba. China’s retail spending growth was -11% in April. It could continue to be negative if China continues to pursue its aggressive stance on COVID. Additionally, China will face softer export growth should the U.S. enter the recession that many expect, and is still dealing with the economic fallout from the collapse of Evergrande. Taking all of these factors together, we get a picture of a decidedly challenging macroeconomic environment.</p></li></ul><p>If you’re considering taking a position in Alibaba, you’ll want to give the risk factors above a good hard mulling over. To my mind, BABA stock is a good value, because the stock is cheap and the company has a good competitive position. But a stock facing this many risk factors isn’t for everyone. It has been a volatile ride so far, and probably will be for the foreseeable future.</p><p>As for me, I plan to continue holding BABA. For an investor with a long time horizon, there are few better deals in the market today. A lot of people in this market speak of <b>Meta Platforms, Inc.</b> (FB) as a value stock, yet its multiples areall higher than BABA’sdespite it having slower revenue growth. Alibaba is the kind of rock bottom bargain you rarely see anywhere other than China, which is why I remain long this stock despite all of the risk factors it faces.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Earnings: Back Up The Truck</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Earnings: Back Up The Truck\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-27 22:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514639-alibaba-earnings-back-up-the-truck><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba just released its Q4 earnings, which beat on both revenue and adjusted EPS.Expectations were low heading into the release.At this point, BABA has gotten beaten down to the point of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514639-alibaba-earnings-back-up-the-truck\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514639-alibaba-earnings-back-up-the-truck","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2238387186","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba just released its Q4 earnings, which beat on both revenue and adjusted EPS.Expectations were low heading into the release.At this point, BABA has gotten beaten down to the point of absurdity.In this article I dissect Alibaba's Q4 earnings release and explain why I'm still long despite all the challenges.Michael Loccisano/Getty Images EntertainmentAlibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) just released its fourth quarter earnings. The release beat expectations on revenue as well as on EPS. The $3 billion year-over-year increase in revenue showed that BABA was able to crankout strong sales growth even amid China’s lockdowns and other macroeconomic headwinds.Alibaba had a lot of things working in its favor going into its Q2 release. The company had negative earnings in the prior year quarter, which meant that the comparisons were soft this time around. The company was caught off guard by some lockdowns in major Chinese cities, but it wasn’t until Q2 (Alibaba’s fiscal Q1) that they became truly widespread. Additionally, BABA enjoyed a significant increase in web traffic in Q4 across virtually all of its online channels. Despite these two factors working in BABA’s favor, analysts still cut estimates repeatedly throughout the quarter, leading to weak expectations.So, Alibaba had many advantages heading into this release. Which is why it was not surprising that earnings beat expectations. In Q4, Alibaba put most of its 2021 tech crackdown damage behind it. We’re beginning to see the effects of that today.With a solid fourth quarter under its belt, Alibaba has a good foundation to build from. While the upcoming quarterly release is likely to be weak due to China’s heavy Q2 lockdowns, BABA will once again have soft comparisons in the September quarter. This lends credence to the idea that 2022 will be the year when Alibaba recovers–although the process may take longer than we initially thought.Earnings RecapFor the fourth quarter, Alibaba delivered strong earnings, beating on both the top and bottom lines. Some highlights include:Revenue: $32.1 billion, up 9% (beat by $3 billion);Operating income: $2.6 billion;GAAP earnings: $-2.5 billion;Adjusted earnings: $3.1 billion;Diluted EPS: $1.25, down 23% (beat by $0.16);Operating cash flow: $-1.1 billion.Pretty strong results, all things considered. Even with lockdowns taking place in the fourth quarter, Alibaba managed to grow its revenue by billions of dollars.A few metrics in the release were particularly surprising, such as the 8% growth in core commerce. Going into the release, many investors expected the core eCommerce segment to weigh on results, as China was going through lockdowns in Q4. In past quarters, that segment underperformed relative to the cloud segment. This time around, that trend reversed. In Q4, Alibaba Cloud lost its biggest customer, which resulted in the segment growing by only 21%. Alibaba Cloud has long been considered a major potential growth driver for BABA, so its comparative under-performance in Q4 was a disappointment.The cloud segment is worth exploring in detail. In the earnings release, BABA said that “a top customer” cut out its use of Alibaba cloud due to slowing demand in China. It did not specify the identity of the customer. The customer also apparently ceased using Alibaba Cloud in its international business, though it declined to say why. According to Alibaba, cloud growth would have been 29% had this customer not stopped using the service.So, although Alibaba Cloud growth decelerated significantly in Q4, there is reason to think that it will pick up again. The 29% growth that Alibaba Cloud would have delivered had this customer still been in the picture would have been commensurate with past quarters, meaning that BABA would not have experienced deceleration. If Alibaba can get that customer back, then its growth could accelerate in the near future.Competitors’ ResultsTo truly understand Alibaba’s Q4 results, we need to check in on how the company’s competitors have been doing. It’s well known that China’s government wants to increase competition in the tech sector, and this has been cited as a headwind for Alibaba. Given this, it makes sense to look at some of BABA’s competitors’ recent releases. Armed with this information, we can gauge how much of an advantage or disadvantage BABA has going forward.First, let’s look at JD.com, Inc. (JD). JD’s earnings release was mixed. Revenue beat expectations, growing 18%, as did adjusted earnings. GAAP earnings, on the other hand, missed by a pretty wide margin, coming in at $-0.29, compared to $-0.02 expected. It wasn’t a great release, but the growth in revenue shows that one of BABA’s competitors is increasing its presence in the market. That could be thought of as a negative for BABA.Next up we have Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD). PDD’s most recent release showed its slowest revenue growth in years. Coming in at 3%, the company’s revenue decelerated dramatically. That was definitely a positive for Alibaba. Pinduoduo’s popular group purchase model in agricultural goods could have made it a real competitor to BABA had it branched out into more product categories. Now that PDD’s growth is slowing down, it looks like the possible competitive threat has eased off. (Pinduoduo has announced its quarterly results)ValuationAlibaba’s Q4 results are particularly encouraging when we consider them along with the company’s valuation. Alibaba’s recent earnings beat expectations, yet the company’s stock is still very cheap, boasting valuation multiples like:Adjusted P/E: 9.5;GAAP P/E: 21.9;Price/sales: 1.69;Price/book: 1.44;Price/operating cash flow: 8.The above metrics strongly hint at a company that may be undervalued. BABA is, quite frankly, priced like it’s going out of business. Its price/book multiple is approaching a level where the company would be trading below the value of assets, net of debt, if its stock went much lower. In fact, Alibaba could reach the point where it’s trading below book value this quarter if its stock portfolio increases in value.Alibaba is known to hold a lot of stocks and other marketable securities on its balance sheet. In recent quarters, this factor has been reducing the company’s GAAP earnings, as GAAP accounting rules state that you have to subtract mark-to-market losses on securities from net income, even if the losses weren’t realized. It’s a peculiar accounting rule that Warren Buffett has criticized due to it producing “earnings” that don’t reflect operating performance. It is true that mark-to-market accounting produces earnings that have nothing to do with business performance. However, this exact same factor could push BABA’s assets and earnings higher in the future, leading to an even lower price/book multiple and even greater perceived undervaluation.Risks and ChallengesAs we’ve seen, Alibaba is a strong player in China’s eCommerce industry that just put out a better-than-expected earnings release. Its stock is also very cheap. Taking all of this together, one gets the sense of a great value.However, there are several risks and challenges to keep in mind, including:June quarter earnings.It’s quite likely that Alibaba’s June quarter earnings will be weak. There were at least two full months of severe lockdowns in several Chinese cities in Q1. At the peak, more than 400 million Chinese citizens were locked down. There were some lockdowns in the just-reported quarter, but they weren’t as strict, and they didn’t affect as many people. There are already early signs that the Q2 lockdowns hit BABA pretty hard. BABA’s web traffic severely declined in April after rising in March. This suggests that, possibly, Chinese citizens were spending less money due to lockdown-induced supply constraints, or income loss.Lockdowns.Related to the June quarter earnings release is the prospect of Chinese lockdowns in general. China still officially maintains a “Zero COVID policy” which means that it is willing to use lockdowns to combat even small numbers of cases. This can lead to less retail spending when it occurs, which is a bad thing for online retail platforms like the ones BABA operates.A renewed tech regulation.China’s tech regulation was the biggest single factor behind Alibaba’s crash in 2021. The regulation resulted in BABA taking a $2.8 billion fine, a tax hike, and a host of other challenges. At the start of this year, it was looking like the regulation was still ongoing. The government was just about to launch a new inquiry into Ant Group when the COVID outbreak hit and the anti-trust inquiries were put on hold. Since then, China’s policy has been to support the markets rather than pressure them. However, there is always the possibility that the regulation will flare up again. If it does, it could cost BABA some money.The macro climate.China’s macroeconomic environment could be considered a short term risk factor for Alibaba. China’s retail spending growth was -11% in April. It could continue to be negative if China continues to pursue its aggressive stance on COVID. Additionally, China will face softer export growth should the U.S. enter the recession that many expect, and is still dealing with the economic fallout from the collapse of Evergrande. Taking all of these factors together, we get a picture of a decidedly challenging macroeconomic environment.If you’re considering taking a position in Alibaba, you’ll want to give the risk factors above a good hard mulling over. To my mind, BABA stock is a good value, because the stock is cheap and the company has a good competitive position. But a stock facing this many risk factors isn’t for everyone. It has been a volatile ride so far, and probably will be for the foreseeable future.As for me, I plan to continue holding BABA. For an investor with a long time horizon, there are few better deals in the market today. A lot of people in this market speak of Meta Platforms, Inc. (FB) as a value stock, yet its multiples areall higher than BABA’sdespite it having slower revenue growth. Alibaba is the kind of rock bottom bargain you rarely see anywhere other than China, which is why I remain long this stock despite all of the risk factors it faces.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018666903,"gmtCreate":1649033521623,"gmtModify":1676534438911,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018666903","repostId":"1151950069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151950069","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649033424,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151950069?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-04 08:50","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stocks to watch: CapitaLand Investment, SPH, SPH Reit, ALog Trust, Keppel Reit","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151950069","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Monday (Apr 4):CAPITALAND Development (CLD), the development arm of CapitaLand Group, has won the bids for 2","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Monday (Apr 4):</p><p>CAPITALAND Development (CLD), the development arm of CapitaLand Group, has won the bids for 2 prime residential sites in China for a total price of 3.5 billion yuan (S$748 million).</p><p>AS retail sentiments improve, SPH Real Estate Investment Trust (Reit) on Friday (Apr 1) posted a distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.44 Singapore cents for the fiscal second quarter ended Feb 28, 2022, bringing total distributions for the first half of the year to 2.68 cents.</p><p>CUSCADEN Peak&#39;s bid to acquire Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) via a scheme of arrangement was sanctioned in court on Friday (Apr 1).The last day of trading for SPH will be Apr 7, before the group&#39;s shares are suspended from 9 am the following day and subsequently delisted on May 13.</p><p>THE trustee and the property manager of Ara Logos Logistics Trust (ALog Trust)ARA LOGOS Log have received a writ of summons for a claim amounting to about S$8 million, plus interest and costs.</p><p>SINGAPORE&#39;S Central Business District (CBD) saw Grade A office rents record the fastest quarterly growth since rents turned around in Q2 2021, according to JLL Singapore in a recent report.Listed on SGX are 5 S-Reits with Singapore office properties in their portfolios. They are, Keppel Reit which is a pure-play office S-Reit, and diversified S-Reits CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT),CapLand IntCom,Suntec Reit, Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT), Mapletree Com and OUE Commercial Reit (OUE C-Reit).OUE Com  Keppel Reit in FY21 had a tenant retention rate of 62 percent and noted that a majority of new and expansion leases were in Singapore.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Stocks to watch: CapitaLand Investment, SPH, SPH Reit, ALog Trust, Keppel Reit</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Stocks to watch: CapitaLand Investment, SPH, SPH Reit, ALog Trust, Keppel Reit\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-04 08:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Monday (Apr 4):</p><p>CAPITALAND Development (CLD), the development arm of CapitaLand Group, has won the bids for 2 prime residential sites in China for a total price of 3.5 billion yuan (S$748 million).</p><p>AS retail sentiments improve, SPH Real Estate Investment Trust (Reit) on Friday (Apr 1) posted a distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.44 Singapore cents for the fiscal second quarter ended Feb 28, 2022, bringing total distributions for the first half of the year to 2.68 cents.</p><p>CUSCADEN Peak&#39;s bid to acquire Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) via a scheme of arrangement was sanctioned in court on Friday (Apr 1).The last day of trading for SPH will be Apr 7, before the group&#39;s shares are suspended from 9 am the following day and subsequently delisted on May 13.</p><p>THE trustee and the property manager of Ara Logos Logistics Trust (ALog Trust)ARA LOGOS Log have received a writ of summons for a claim amounting to about S$8 million, plus interest and costs.</p><p>SINGAPORE&#39;S Central Business District (CBD) saw Grade A office rents record the fastest quarterly growth since rents turned around in Q2 2021, according to JLL Singapore in a recent report.Listed on SGX are 5 S-Reits with Singapore office properties in their portfolios. They are, Keppel Reit which is a pure-play office S-Reit, and diversified S-Reits CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT),CapLand IntCom,Suntec Reit, Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT), Mapletree Com and OUE Commercial Reit (OUE C-Reit).OUE Com  Keppel Reit in FY21 had a tenant retention rate of 62 percent and noted that a majority of new and expansion leases were in Singapore.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数","SK6U.SI":"百利宫房地产投资信托","5F7.SI":"维利顿资源","K71U.SI":"吉宝房地产信托","CLILF":"Capitaland Investment Ltd.","SPH":"Suburban Propane Partners L.P."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151950069","content_text":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Monday (Apr 4):CAPITALAND Development (CLD), the development arm of CapitaLand Group, has won the bids for 2 prime residential sites in China for a total price of 3.5 billion yuan (S$748 million).AS retail sentiments improve, SPH Real Estate Investment Trust (Reit) on Friday (Apr 1) posted a distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.44 Singapore cents for the fiscal second quarter ended Feb 28, 2022, bringing total distributions for the first half of the year to 2.68 cents.CUSCADEN Peak's bid to acquire Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) via a scheme of arrangement was sanctioned in court on Friday (Apr 1).The last day of trading for SPH will be Apr 7, before the group's shares are suspended from 9 am the following day and subsequently delisted on May 13.THE trustee and the property manager of Ara Logos Logistics Trust (ALog Trust)ARA LOGOS Log have received a writ of summons for a claim amounting to about S$8 million, plus interest and costs.SINGAPORE'S Central Business District (CBD) saw Grade A office rents record the fastest quarterly growth since rents turned around in Q2 2021, according to JLL Singapore in a recent report.Listed on SGX are 5 S-Reits with Singapore office properties in their portfolios. They are, Keppel Reit which is a pure-play office S-Reit, and diversified S-Reits CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT),CapLand IntCom,Suntec Reit, Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT), Mapletree Com and OUE Commercial Reit (OUE C-Reit).OUE Com  Keppel Reit in FY21 had a tenant retention rate of 62 percent and noted that a majority of new and expansion leases were in Singapore.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038183733,"gmtCreate":1646776468615,"gmtModify":1676534159732,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038183733","repostId":"2217100884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2217100884","pubTimestamp":1646752884,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2217100884?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-08 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Sea Limited Stock a Buy Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2217100884","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The company's key business segment could be losing steam.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Digital conglomerate <b>Sea Limited</b> (NYSE:SE) was one of the hottest stocks of 2020 and 2021, soaring from less than $40 per share before the pandemic to more than $350 at its peak in late 2021. It&#39;s collapsed more than 70% from its highs to under $100 per share in just a few months, showing how the market can both giveth, and taketh away.</p><p>However, the market&#39;s cold reception toward Sea Limited may not be without merit. There was a significant area of concern with the company&#39;s fourth-quarter 2021 earnings results. I&#39;ll break down what could have the market spooked about Sea Limited and why the recent dip could be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors.</p><p>Sea Limited offers digital products and services in gaming, e-commerce, and fintech. According to App Annie, its gaming segment Garena created <i>Free Fire</i>, the world&#39;s most downloaded mobile game from 2019 to 2021. Shopee is Sea Limited&#39;s e-commerce marketplace, and Sea Money, its digital payments platform, integrates across the business.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78610350c01555d7fe292e0139b441f3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Image Source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>A dark spot in an otherwise bright quarter</h2><p>Gaming, e-commerce, and fintech are all fast-growing industries, which has enabled Sea Limited to thrive. The company grew its revenue 106% year over year in Q4 2021 and 128% for the entire year. Sea Limited has averaged 119% annual revenue growth over the past three years, so it&#39;s continued its rapid growth.</p><p>However, management guided Garena for $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion in bookings for 2022. Bookings are essentially funds that have been purchased but not spent on the game platform, so they indicate the momentum of the gaming business. Garena&#39;s total 2021 bookings were $4.6 billion, so this is a massive decline that suggests the gaming business could be about to slow down dramatically.</p><p>Garena is Sea&#39;s &#34;money maker.&#34; It contributes all of its profits. Its total 2021 non-GAAP EBITDA from Garena was $2.77 billion, while the rest of the company posted losses, bringing companywide 2021 EBITDA to minus $593 million. Garena&#39;s profits enable the company to invest in growth, like expanding into new markets. It&#39;s reasonable that a weakness in the gaming business could threaten Sea&#39;s path to bottom-line profitability (positive net income), as well as its ability to fund growth.</p><h2>The stock has become attractive</h2><p>It&#39;s not that investors should dismiss these risks; they need to be monitored by shareholders over the coming quarters. However, some context could be important.</p><p>Management attributes the anticipated slowdown to be caused by reopening, where gamers don&#39;t have as much time to spend playing Freefire now that work, school, and social gatherings are slowly going back to normal. Freefire is also currently banned in India due to <b>Tencent</b>&#39;s stake in Sea Limited. It makes sense that these things might impact Garena, and active users still grew 7% year-over-year in Q4. It&#39;s something to watch for sure, but I&#39;m not sure it&#39;s an automatic reason to avoid the stock.</p><p>Meanwhile, Sea&#39;s stock is about as cheap from a price-to-sales ratio standpoint as at any point in its history as a public company. You can see below how the P/S ratio threatens to go below pre-COVID levels.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c4f53e10ddf322d0a2f2864ddec46ee\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SE PS Ratio data by YCharts</span></p><p>Is the company dealing with some bumps in the road? Of course, however, I would argue that the valuation compensates investors for it, versus when the stock traded at a P/S ratio of more than 24 just a few months ago.</p><h2>Flexibility and growth to drive long-term returns</h2><p>If you look beyond Garena&#39;s potential slowdown, the company is still performing at a high level. Sea&#39;s fintech business guided 155% revenue growth in 2022, while Shopee expects 75% growth.</p><p>Southeast Asia is a hotbed for digital growth; <b>Alphabet</b> estimated that the digital economy in the region could double in value to $335 billion by 2025 and potentially reach $1 trillion by the end of the decade.</p><p>Sea&#39;s growth outlook for Shopee and Sea Money shows how rapidly the business is growing; management recently launched new divisions such as Sea AI Lab for artificial intelligence applications and Sea Capital, a segment for strategic investments.</p><p>The company seems to have the ingredients to continue growing for years to come, even if the short-term include some hiccups along the way. Investors may need to have some patience, but the stock&#39;s increasingly attractive valuation could make it worth the wait.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Sea Limited Stock a Buy Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Sea Limited Stock a Buy Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-08 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/07/is-sea-limited-stock-a-buy-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Digital conglomerate Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) was one of the hottest stocks of 2020 and 2021, soaring from less than $40 per share before the pandemic to more than $350 at its peak in late 2021. It's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/07/is-sea-limited-stock-a-buy-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4139":"生物科技","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","SE":"Sea Ltd","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/07/is-sea-limited-stock-a-buy-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2217100884","content_text":"Digital conglomerate Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) was one of the hottest stocks of 2020 and 2021, soaring from less than $40 per share before the pandemic to more than $350 at its peak in late 2021. It's collapsed more than 70% from its highs to under $100 per share in just a few months, showing how the market can both giveth, and taketh away.However, the market's cold reception toward Sea Limited may not be without merit. There was a significant area of concern with the company's fourth-quarter 2021 earnings results. I'll break down what could have the market spooked about Sea Limited and why the recent dip could be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors.Sea Limited offers digital products and services in gaming, e-commerce, and fintech. According to App Annie, its gaming segment Garena created Free Fire, the world's most downloaded mobile game from 2019 to 2021. Shopee is Sea Limited's e-commerce marketplace, and Sea Money, its digital payments platform, integrates across the business.Image Source: Getty Images.A dark spot in an otherwise bright quarterGaming, e-commerce, and fintech are all fast-growing industries, which has enabled Sea Limited to thrive. The company grew its revenue 106% year over year in Q4 2021 and 128% for the entire year. Sea Limited has averaged 119% annual revenue growth over the past three years, so it's continued its rapid growth.However, management guided Garena for $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion in bookings for 2022. Bookings are essentially funds that have been purchased but not spent on the game platform, so they indicate the momentum of the gaming business. Garena's total 2021 bookings were $4.6 billion, so this is a massive decline that suggests the gaming business could be about to slow down dramatically.Garena is Sea's \"money maker.\" It contributes all of its profits. Its total 2021 non-GAAP EBITDA from Garena was $2.77 billion, while the rest of the company posted losses, bringing companywide 2021 EBITDA to minus $593 million. Garena's profits enable the company to invest in growth, like expanding into new markets. It's reasonable that a weakness in the gaming business could threaten Sea's path to bottom-line profitability (positive net income), as well as its ability to fund growth.The stock has become attractiveIt's not that investors should dismiss these risks; they need to be monitored by shareholders over the coming quarters. However, some context could be important.Management attributes the anticipated slowdown to be caused by reopening, where gamers don't have as much time to spend playing Freefire now that work, school, and social gatherings are slowly going back to normal. Freefire is also currently banned in India due to Tencent's stake in Sea Limited. It makes sense that these things might impact Garena, and active users still grew 7% year-over-year in Q4. It's something to watch for sure, but I'm not sure it's an automatic reason to avoid the stock.Meanwhile, Sea's stock is about as cheap from a price-to-sales ratio standpoint as at any point in its history as a public company. You can see below how the P/S ratio threatens to go below pre-COVID levels.SE PS Ratio data by YChartsIs the company dealing with some bumps in the road? Of course, however, I would argue that the valuation compensates investors for it, versus when the stock traded at a P/S ratio of more than 24 just a few months ago.Flexibility and growth to drive long-term returnsIf you look beyond Garena's potential slowdown, the company is still performing at a high level. Sea's fintech business guided 155% revenue growth in 2022, while Shopee expects 75% growth.Southeast Asia is a hotbed for digital growth; Alphabet estimated that the digital economy in the region could double in value to $335 billion by 2025 and potentially reach $1 trillion by the end of the decade.Sea's growth outlook for Shopee and Sea Money shows how rapidly the business is growing; management recently launched new divisions such as Sea AI Lab for artificial intelligence applications and Sea Capital, a segment for strategic investments.The company seems to have the ingredients to continue growing for years to come, even if the short-term include some hiccups along the way. Investors may need to have some patience, but the stock's increasingly attractive valuation could make it worth the wait.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038998313,"gmtCreate":1646706851852,"gmtModify":1676534153352,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038998313","repostId":"1197753178","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197753178","pubTimestamp":1646706435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197753178?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-08 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel Mobileye IPO: 10 Things to Know as the Self-Driving Unit Files to Come Public","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197753178","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Mobileye is expected to IPO during the second half of this year","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Shares of <b>Intel</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>INTC</u></b>) are basically flat on the day despite a <b>Mobileye</b> initial public offering (IPO) update. The chipmaker announced today that its Mobileye unit has filed paperwork to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an IPO. However, the filing is not yet available to the public because Intel utilized the confidential filing provision.</p><p>Mobileye is an Israeli-based self-driving technology company that was acquired by Intel in 2017 for $15.3 billion. Last year, the company reported revenue of $1.4 billion, up about 40% year-over-year. According to people familiar with the matter, Mobileye is likely to IPO at a valuation near $50 billion.</p><p>In the past, Mobileye has collaborated with companies such as <b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>),<b>General Motors</b> (NYSE:<b><u>GM</u></b>) and <b>BMW</b>(OTCMKTS:<b><u>BMWYY</u></b>). The company ended its partnership with Tesla in 2016 due to “disagreements about how the technology was deployed.”</p><p>In addition, Intel expects the IPO to occur sometime during the second half of this year. The company announced last December that it had plans to take the self-driving company public.</p><p>So, what else should investors know about the Mobileye IPO? Let’s jump right in.</p><p><b>INTC Stock: What to Know About the Mobileye IPO</b></p><ol><li>Mobileye’s philosophy is that “if a human can drive a car based on vision alone — so can a computer.”</li><li>Intel has not yet disclosed the price range for the IPO or the number of shares it plans to offer.</li><li>Mobileye was previously listed on the <b>New York Stock Exchange</b> before Intel’s acquisition took it private.</li><li>After the IPO, Intel expects to retain a majority stake in Mobileye.</li><li>Mobileye’s team of 1,700 employees develops advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) for other automakers or original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).</li><li>The company also produces cameras, software and computer chips for OEMs. However, Mobileye’s core business focuses on creating camera-based systems to assist in self-driving and safety precautions.</li><li>More than 100 million vehicles worldwide are “equipped with Mobileye technology.” In addition, more than 300 car models utilize the company’s technology.</li><li>Furthermore, more than 25 global automakers collaborate with Mobileye to aid self-driving safety.</li><li>Last year, the company tested self-driving car prototypes in several major cities, which included Shanghai, Paris and Detroit.</li><li>Looking ahead, Mobileye plans on building its own light detection and ranging (LiDAR) system. The Israeli-based company currently uses LiDAR technology from <b>Luminar Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>LAZR</u></b>).</li></ol></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel Mobileye IPO: 10 Things to Know as the Self-Driving Unit Files to Come Public</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel Mobileye IPO: 10 Things to Know as the Self-Driving Unit Files to Come Public\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-08 10:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/03/intel-mobileye-ipo-10-things-to-know-as-the-self-driving-unit-files-to-come-public/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shares of Intel(NASDAQ:INTC) are basically flat on the day despite a Mobileye initial public offering (IPO) update. The chipmaker announced today that its Mobileye unit has filed paperwork to the U.S....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/intel-mobileye-ipo-10-things-to-know-as-the-self-driving-unit-files-to-come-public/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/intel-mobileye-ipo-10-things-to-know-as-the-self-driving-unit-files-to-come-public/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197753178","content_text":"Shares of Intel(NASDAQ:INTC) are basically flat on the day despite a Mobileye initial public offering (IPO) update. The chipmaker announced today that its Mobileye unit has filed paperwork to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an IPO. However, the filing is not yet available to the public because Intel utilized the confidential filing provision.Mobileye is an Israeli-based self-driving technology company that was acquired by Intel in 2017 for $15.3 billion. Last year, the company reported revenue of $1.4 billion, up about 40% year-over-year. According to people familiar with the matter, Mobileye is likely to IPO at a valuation near $50 billion.In the past, Mobileye has collaborated with companies such as Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA),General Motors (NYSE:GM) and BMW(OTCMKTS:BMWYY). The company ended its partnership with Tesla in 2016 due to “disagreements about how the technology was deployed.”In addition, Intel expects the IPO to occur sometime during the second half of this year. The company announced last December that it had plans to take the self-driving company public.So, what else should investors know about the Mobileye IPO? Let’s jump right in.INTC Stock: What to Know About the Mobileye IPOMobileye’s philosophy is that “if a human can drive a car based on vision alone — so can a computer.”Intel has not yet disclosed the price range for the IPO or the number of shares it plans to offer.Mobileye was previously listed on the New York Stock Exchange before Intel’s acquisition took it private.After the IPO, Intel expects to retain a majority stake in Mobileye.Mobileye’s team of 1,700 employees develops advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) for other automakers or original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).The company also produces cameras, software and computer chips for OEMs. However, Mobileye’s core business focuses on creating camera-based systems to assist in self-driving and safety precautions.More than 100 million vehicles worldwide are “equipped with Mobileye technology.” In addition, more than 300 car models utilize the company’s technology.Furthermore, more than 25 global automakers collaborate with Mobileye to aid self-driving safety.Last year, the company tested self-driving car prototypes in several major cities, which included Shanghai, Paris and Detroit.Looking ahead, Mobileye plans on building its own light detection and ranging (LiDAR) system. The Israeli-based company currently uses LiDAR technology from Luminar Technologies(NASDAQ:LAZR).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919019480,"gmtCreate":1663712395140,"gmtModify":1676537318392,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919019480","repostId":"2268391042","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268391042","pubTimestamp":1663663883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268391042?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 16:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"VOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268391042","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtr","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.</li><li>The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening monetary policies.</li><li>Investor sentiment and valuations would be impacted by a large percentage of downside earnings revisions.</li><li>The historical data also suggests that going long ahead of a recession is not a prudent strategy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5056e902bdaef835ab02d4d345d0153e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>ronniechua</span></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is on the edge of a bear market once again as the recovery from mid-June to mid-August proved to be no more than a bear market rally, in my opinion. In the last thirty days, the indexplunged around 9% and is currently only a few percentage points higher than its mid-June lows. I believe the broader market index, as well as related ETFs such as the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO), are likely to hit new lows in the coming months, and the bear trend might last longer than the recent routes. What’s more concerning is that global GDP growth and corporate earnings are projected to fall further in the next year. In addition, historical trends suggest that the market has a lot more room to fall. Therefore, buying the latest dip doesn’t look like a prudent strategy to me.</p><h2>Demand Destruction Pushing Economies into Recession</h2><h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc3c3e1aa15446ec437054d90c22084f\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"689\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>True_insights (Bloomberg)</span></p></h2><p>Economic and monetary policy directly affect stock market performance. Historically, the US stock market has faced challenges when economic numbers drop, but bull markets usually occur when monetary conditions are easy and economic growth is stable. There have been 10 official U.S. recessions since 1957 and the stock market has lost 29% on average after each recession. In economics, high prices or limited supply guides demand destruction. A number of factors are contributing to demand destruction at the moment, including high inflation, tightening monetary policies, the Russian war, and the Chinese economic slowdown.</p><p>Rating agencies and the World Bank are cutting their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the negative impact of demand destruction on business activities. Fitch, for instance, slashed its 2022 global growth forecast for the third time in nine months to 2.4%, down by 0.5% from its June forecast. For 2023, it expects the global GDP to grow by only 1.7%. It also projects the eurozone and UK will enter recession in the December quarter of 2022, and that the recession will last longer. Fitch also predicts a mild recession in the United States in mid-2023.</p><h2>Earnings Revisions</h2><p>As it appears that economies will fall into recession from the December quarter, analysts and companies are cutting earnings expectations faster. For example, FedEx (FDX), one of the world&#39;s largest air freight and logistics companies, missed earnings expectations for the first quarter by a greater margin. Additionally, the company expects the situation to worsen in the next quarter.</p><blockquote>Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, Q1 results are below our expectations, CEO Raj Subramaniam said.</blockquote><p>It&#39;s evident from FedEx&#39;s earnings miss that the market environment is worse than many had predicted. In the quarters ahead, industrial, materials, and real estate sectors could face massive earnings reductions as a slower economic activity directly impacts their revenue generation capacities. This trend is also reflected in Seeking Alpha&#39;s poor quant grades for a large number of key industrial stocks. In contrast, mega-cap tech stocks including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) have seen an average earningsestimatedrop of 21.4% over the last 90 days, while projections for 2023 have declined 11.3%. In the case of VOO, the majority of its top 10 stock holdings, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have seen a large number of downside earnings revisions for 2022 and 2023.</p><h2>Valuations</h2><p>The S&amp;P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio eased to around 16.9 at present, down from 1.84% in the previous quarter and 8.76% in the year-ago period. When stocks hit their 2022 low in mid-June, the forward PE was around 16.</p><p>S&amp;P 500&#39;s forward PE ratio could fall below its June lows if the bear trend intensifies in the coming months. Historically, PE ratios have fallen between 13 and 14 during recessions since 1990, with the exception of 2008 when the PE fell below 10. Further, a significant amount of earnings revisions in the coming quarters would put additional pressure on valuations. Any rally in stocks without earnings growth would make them expensive, and it appears that investors might not be willing to pay premiums ahead of a recession and tough monetary conditions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e6a297993692762ac59f1dc1b1ea631\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>yardeni.com (8 tech mega-caps forward PE)</span></p><p>There is also a big difference between the forward earnings ratio of the S&amp;P 500 and that of mega-cap tech stocks. Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia account for almost a quarter of the overall weight of the S&amp;P 500 index and almost half of the S&amp;P 500 growth index. These mega-cap tech stocks have on average a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of around 25. These stocks received either a D or F Seeking Alpha quant grade on valuations. S&amp;P 500 might face steep losses in the days ahead if sentiments turn against paying a premium for big tech stocks due to recession and earnings revisions.</p><h2>Capitulation Phase</h2><p>After hot CPI data and increasing prospects for recession, it appears that investors are selling stakes in fear of more losses, a situation known as a capitulation phase. In general, capitulation occurs during bear markets.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7939879a7b810f27e55c49b90c33d95b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Coatue Management (Investor Presentation)</span></p><p>Coatue Management&#39;s investor presentation also hinted that the markets are in a capitulation phase where the entire stock market will fall before reaching its bottom. Philippe Laffont&#39;s investment firm held 80 percent of its portfolio in cash as of June 2022 following a large number of sales in the first half. Like the dot-com bear market, the firm says non-profitable tech stocks fell in the first phase of 2021. In the second phase, both non-profitable and profitable tech stocks plunged in the first half of 2022. In the third phase, which is called the capitulation phase, the firm predicts the entire public sector is likely to face a downtrend and this phase is likely to last longer than the first two.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>It is not the right time to buy ETFs such as VOO that track the performance of the S&amp;P 500 index in my opinion. As several indicators are sending bear market warnings, the ETF is likely to suffer more losses in the months ahead. FedEx&#39;s poor results and lower outlook have raised concerns over significant earnings revisions for the full year and 2023. Sentiment would also be impacted by the worsening economic situation, as major economic regions are likely to enter recession in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, lofty valuations and historical trends indicate downside movement.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>VOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-20 16:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268391042","content_text":"SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening monetary policies.Investor sentiment and valuations would be impacted by a large percentage of downside earnings revisions.The historical data also suggests that going long ahead of a recession is not a prudent strategy.ronniechuaThe S&P 500 is on the edge of a bear market once again as the recovery from mid-June to mid-August proved to be no more than a bear market rally, in my opinion. In the last thirty days, the indexplunged around 9% and is currently only a few percentage points higher than its mid-June lows. I believe the broader market index, as well as related ETFs such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO), are likely to hit new lows in the coming months, and the bear trend might last longer than the recent routes. What’s more concerning is that global GDP growth and corporate earnings are projected to fall further in the next year. In addition, historical trends suggest that the market has a lot more room to fall. Therefore, buying the latest dip doesn’t look like a prudent strategy to me.Demand Destruction Pushing Economies into RecessionTrue_insights (Bloomberg)Economic and monetary policy directly affect stock market performance. Historically, the US stock market has faced challenges when economic numbers drop, but bull markets usually occur when monetary conditions are easy and economic growth is stable. There have been 10 official U.S. recessions since 1957 and the stock market has lost 29% on average after each recession. In economics, high prices or limited supply guides demand destruction. A number of factors are contributing to demand destruction at the moment, including high inflation, tightening monetary policies, the Russian war, and the Chinese economic slowdown.Rating agencies and the World Bank are cutting their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the negative impact of demand destruction on business activities. Fitch, for instance, slashed its 2022 global growth forecast for the third time in nine months to 2.4%, down by 0.5% from its June forecast. For 2023, it expects the global GDP to grow by only 1.7%. It also projects the eurozone and UK will enter recession in the December quarter of 2022, and that the recession will last longer. Fitch also predicts a mild recession in the United States in mid-2023.Earnings RevisionsAs it appears that economies will fall into recession from the December quarter, analysts and companies are cutting earnings expectations faster. For example, FedEx (FDX), one of the world's largest air freight and logistics companies, missed earnings expectations for the first quarter by a greater margin. Additionally, the company expects the situation to worsen in the next quarter.Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, Q1 results are below our expectations, CEO Raj Subramaniam said.It's evident from FedEx's earnings miss that the market environment is worse than many had predicted. In the quarters ahead, industrial, materials, and real estate sectors could face massive earnings reductions as a slower economic activity directly impacts their revenue generation capacities. This trend is also reflected in Seeking Alpha's poor quant grades for a large number of key industrial stocks. In contrast, mega-cap tech stocks including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) have seen an average earningsestimatedrop of 21.4% over the last 90 days, while projections for 2023 have declined 11.3%. In the case of VOO, the majority of its top 10 stock holdings, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have seen a large number of downside earnings revisions for 2022 and 2023.ValuationsThe S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio eased to around 16.9 at present, down from 1.84% in the previous quarter and 8.76% in the year-ago period. When stocks hit their 2022 low in mid-June, the forward PE was around 16.S&P 500's forward PE ratio could fall below its June lows if the bear trend intensifies in the coming months. Historically, PE ratios have fallen between 13 and 14 during recessions since 1990, with the exception of 2008 when the PE fell below 10. Further, a significant amount of earnings revisions in the coming quarters would put additional pressure on valuations. Any rally in stocks without earnings growth would make them expensive, and it appears that investors might not be willing to pay premiums ahead of a recession and tough monetary conditions.yardeni.com (8 tech mega-caps forward PE)There is also a big difference between the forward earnings ratio of the S&P 500 and that of mega-cap tech stocks. Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia account for almost a quarter of the overall weight of the S&P 500 index and almost half of the S&P 500 growth index. These mega-cap tech stocks have on average a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of around 25. These stocks received either a D or F Seeking Alpha quant grade on valuations. S&P 500 might face steep losses in the days ahead if sentiments turn against paying a premium for big tech stocks due to recession and earnings revisions.Capitulation PhaseAfter hot CPI data and increasing prospects for recession, it appears that investors are selling stakes in fear of more losses, a situation known as a capitulation phase. In general, capitulation occurs during bear markets.Coatue Management (Investor Presentation)Coatue Management's investor presentation also hinted that the markets are in a capitulation phase where the entire stock market will fall before reaching its bottom. Philippe Laffont's investment firm held 80 percent of its portfolio in cash as of June 2022 following a large number of sales in the first half. Like the dot-com bear market, the firm says non-profitable tech stocks fell in the first phase of 2021. In the second phase, both non-profitable and profitable tech stocks plunged in the first half of 2022. In the third phase, which is called the capitulation phase, the firm predicts the entire public sector is likely to face a downtrend and this phase is likely to last longer than the first two.ConclusionIt is not the right time to buy ETFs such as VOO that track the performance of the S&P 500 index in my opinion. As several indicators are sending bear market warnings, the ETF is likely to suffer more losses in the months ahead. FedEx's poor results and lower outlook have raised concerns over significant earnings revisions for the full year and 2023. Sentiment would also be impacted by the worsening economic situation, as major economic regions are likely to enter recession in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, lofty valuations and historical trends indicate downside movement.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931439781,"gmtCreate":1662504848043,"gmtModify":1676537072657,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931439781","repostId":"2265953702","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998343021,"gmtCreate":1660951634064,"gmtModify":1676536427283,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998343021","repostId":"2260373492","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2260373492","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1660953025,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260373492?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 07:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Down As Yields Rise; Indexes Post Weekly Losses","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260373492","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%* Indexes: ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week</p><p>* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%</p><p>* Indexes: Dow down 0.9%, S&amp;P 500 down 1.3%, Nasdaq down 2%</p><p>NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday in a broad selloff led by megacaps as U.S. bond yields rose, with the S&amp;P 500 posting losses for the week after four straight weeks of gains.</p><p>Amazon.com, Apple and Microsoft all fell and were the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq. Higher rates tend to be a negative for tech and growth stocks, whose valuations rely more heavily on future cash flows.</p><p>U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note nearly hitting 3%, after Germany reported record-high increases in monthly producer prices.</p><p>Investors have been weighing how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to be as it raises interest rates to battle inflation.</p><p>Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that U.S. central bank officials have &#34;a lot of time still&#34; before they need to decide how large an interest rate increase to approve at their Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.</p><p>&#34;The rise in rates around the globe and tough talk from central bankers are being used as an excuse to push stocks lower in very light volume on an August Friday session,&#34; said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.3 points, or 0.86%, to 33,706.74, the S&amp;P 500 lost 55.26 points, or 1.29%, to 4,228.48 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 260.13 points, or 2.01%, to 12,705.22.</p><p>All three major indexes registered losses for the week. The S&amp;P 500 fell about 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 2.6% in their first weekly declines after four weeks of gains. The Dow lost about 0.2% for the week.</p><p>After notching its worst first half since 1970, the S&amp;P 500 has bounced some 16% from its mid-June low, fueled by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and hopes the economy can avoid a recession even as the Fed hikes rates.</p><p>Friday&#39;s monthly options expiration should also make way for greater near-term stock market moves as options positions expire, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options-focused financial insights company SpotGamma.</p><p>The U.S. central bank needs to keep raising borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation, a string of U.S. central bank officials said on Thursday, even as they debated how fast and how high to lift them.</p><p>The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points since March to fight inflation at a four decade-high.</p><p>Focus next week may be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s speech on the economic outlook at the annual global central bankers&#39; conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.</p><p>Meme stock Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc plunged 40.5% as billionaire investor Ryan Cohen exited the struggling home goods retailer by selling his stake.</p><p>The S&amp;P banking index fell 2.1% after recent gains.</p><p>Shares of Deere &amp; Co ended slightly higher, even after it lowered its full-year profit outlook and said it has sold out of large tractors as it grapples with parts shortages and high costs.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was last at 10.01 billion shares in one of the lowest volume days of the year.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 43 new highs and 93 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Down As Yields Rise; Indexes Post Weekly Losses</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Down As Yields Rise; Indexes Post Weekly Losses\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-20 07:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week</p><p>* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%</p><p>* Indexes: Dow down 0.9%, S&amp;P 500 down 1.3%, Nasdaq down 2%</p><p>NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday in a broad selloff led by megacaps as U.S. bond yields rose, with the S&amp;P 500 posting losses for the week after four straight weeks of gains.</p><p>Amazon.com, Apple and Microsoft all fell and were the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq. Higher rates tend to be a negative for tech and growth stocks, whose valuations rely more heavily on future cash flows.</p><p>U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note nearly hitting 3%, after Germany reported record-high increases in monthly producer prices.</p><p>Investors have been weighing how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to be as it raises interest rates to battle inflation.</p><p>Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that U.S. central bank officials have &#34;a lot of time still&#34; before they need to decide how large an interest rate increase to approve at their Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.</p><p>&#34;The rise in rates around the globe and tough talk from central bankers are being used as an excuse to push stocks lower in very light volume on an August Friday session,&#34; said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.3 points, or 0.86%, to 33,706.74, the S&amp;P 500 lost 55.26 points, or 1.29%, to 4,228.48 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 260.13 points, or 2.01%, to 12,705.22.</p><p>All three major indexes registered losses for the week. The S&amp;P 500 fell about 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 2.6% in their first weekly declines after four weeks of gains. The Dow lost about 0.2% for the week.</p><p>After notching its worst first half since 1970, the S&amp;P 500 has bounced some 16% from its mid-June low, fueled by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and hopes the economy can avoid a recession even as the Fed hikes rates.</p><p>Friday&#39;s monthly options expiration should also make way for greater near-term stock market moves as options positions expire, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options-focused financial insights company SpotGamma.</p><p>The U.S. central bank needs to keep raising borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation, a string of U.S. central bank officials said on Thursday, even as they debated how fast and how high to lift them.</p><p>The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points since March to fight inflation at a four decade-high.</p><p>Focus next week may be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s speech on the economic outlook at the annual global central bankers&#39; conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.</p><p>Meme stock Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc plunged 40.5% as billionaire investor Ryan Cohen exited the struggling home goods retailer by selling his stake.</p><p>The S&amp;P banking index fell 2.1% after recent gains.</p><p>Shares of Deere &amp; Co ended slightly higher, even after it lowered its full-year profit outlook and said it has sold out of large tractors as it grapples with parts shortages and high costs.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was last at 10.01 billion shares in one of the lowest volume days of the year.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 43 new highs and 93 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COMP":"Compass, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DE":"迪尔股份有限公司","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BK4539":"次新股","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BBBY":"3B家居","AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2260373492","content_text":"* Investors await Jackson Hole conference next week* 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 3%* Indexes: Dow down 0.9%, S&P 500 down 1.3%, Nasdaq down 2%NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday in a broad selloff led by megacaps as U.S. bond yields rose, with the S&P 500 posting losses for the week after four straight weeks of gains.Amazon.com, Apple and Microsoft all fell and were the biggest drags on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Higher rates tend to be a negative for tech and growth stocks, whose valuations rely more heavily on future cash flows.U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note nearly hitting 3%, after Germany reported record-high increases in monthly producer prices.Investors have been weighing how aggressive the Federal Reserve may need to be as it raises interest rates to battle inflation.Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that U.S. central bank officials have \"a lot of time still\" before they need to decide how large an interest rate increase to approve at their Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.\"The rise in rates around the globe and tough talk from central bankers are being used as an excuse to push stocks lower in very light volume on an August Friday session,\" said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.3 points, or 0.86%, to 33,706.74, the S&P 500 lost 55.26 points, or 1.29%, to 4,228.48 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 260.13 points, or 2.01%, to 12,705.22.All three major indexes registered losses for the week. The S&P 500 fell about 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 2.6% in their first weekly declines after four weeks of gains. The Dow lost about 0.2% for the week.After notching its worst first half since 1970, the S&P 500 has bounced some 16% from its mid-June low, fueled by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and hopes the economy can avoid a recession even as the Fed hikes rates.Friday's monthly options expiration should also make way for greater near-term stock market moves as options positions expire, said Brent Kochuba, founder of options-focused financial insights company SpotGamma.The U.S. central bank needs to keep raising borrowing costs to tame decades-high inflation, a string of U.S. central bank officials said on Thursday, even as they debated how fast and how high to lift them.The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 225 basis points since March to fight inflation at a four decade-high.Focus next week may be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on the economic outlook at the annual global central bankers' conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.Meme stock Bed Bath & Beyond Inc plunged 40.5% as billionaire investor Ryan Cohen exited the struggling home goods retailer by selling his stake.The S&P banking index fell 2.1% after recent gains.Shares of Deere & Co ended slightly higher, even after it lowered its full-year profit outlook and said it has sold out of large tractors as it grapples with parts shortages and high costs.Volume on U.S. exchanges was last at 10.01 billion shares in one of the lowest volume days of the year.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 6.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 43 new highs and 93 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074874656,"gmtCreate":1658354935075,"gmtModify":1676536143502,"author":{"id":"3578911332049824","authorId":"3578911332049824","name":"FongLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450c295f4ac0d8b1cf86a75c3a5bf721","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578911332049824","authorIdStr":"3578911332049824"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074874656","repostId":"1110784633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110784633","pubTimestamp":1658330115,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110784633?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-20 23:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110784633","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA has crashed in recent months. Investors panic about rising rates and a potential reces","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>NVIDIA has crashed in recent months. Investors panic about rising rates and a potential recession.</li><li>NVIDIA&#39;s long-term growth outlook is compelling, however. Its buybacks will also be even more impactful following the share price drop.</li><li>Even under conservative assumptions, the current share price crash makes for a solid entry point for long-term-oriented investors.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6517c41157501f110716abd605cebeeb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>martin-dm</span></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has seen its shares pull back massively in recent months. Shares are now trading at a discount compared to where they traded historically, for the first time in many years. Fear about its future has grippedthe market, but NVIDIA&#39;s long-term outlook is compelling since the long-term growth drivers remain in place. NVIDIA faces some short-term headwinds such as the crypto winter but should be a profitable investment at the current valuation for those that have a multi-year investment horizon.</p><p><b>NVIDIA&#39;s Long-Term Growth Will Likely Continue</b></p><p>NVIDIA has experienced massive business growth in the last couple of years, and that should be the case in the future, too. Growth will likely slow down on a relative basis, but that is to be expected from every company, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining extraordinary relative growth rates becomes impossible at some point. But revenue growth of 30%, 50%, or even more per year is not needed for NVIDIA to be a good long-term investment. In fact, I do believe that even a 10% or 15% annual revenue growth rate could lead to compelling total returns for NVIDIA&#39;s shareholders when they hold for a long-enough time frame.</p><p>Where will that growth come from? NVIDIA benefits from several macro trends that continue to grow its addressable market. The first one is data centers. Here, NVIDIA competes with AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) primarily. According to GMI Research, the global data center market will grow by12%a year through 2028, which allows for solid baseline growth in a scenario where NVIDIA does not take any market share from its competitors. That&#39;s not my assumption, however. Instead, I do believe that NVIDIA will continue to grow its data center business at an above-market growth rate thanks to its attractive offerings in this space. NVIDIA&#39;s HGX-1 hyperscale GPU accelerator, powered by eight NVIDIA Tesla GPUs, is the world&#39;s fastest product in its class. Its industry-leading performance makes it attractive for hyperscale data centers that can rely on its computing power, while cost advantages also make it attractive for buyers:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf736a70ce0a53051ca6ec29feb9ada\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"149\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVIDIA website</span></p><p>HGX-1&#39;s performance especially shines in deep learning and other AI-related tasks, where it outperforms traditional CPUs <i>by up to 10,000%</i>. With inflation hurting the margins of many companies, and with a potential recession eating into their growth outlook, many companies have become more focused on bringing down expenses and becoming more efficient (such as Meta Platforms (META) and Alphabet (GOOG)). With these major cloud computing players focusing more on efficiency and profitability, NVIDIA&#39;s massive cost advantages in machine learning and other AI-related tasks should be a huge selling point for its HGX-1 and similar products. In a recession, when cost controls are highly important, the most cost-efficient product should be especially attractive, which should help NVIDIA grow its market share.</p><p>NVIDIA&#39;s management also is positive when it comes to the company&#39;s growth outlook in the data center space. In the most recent earnings call, NVIDIA&#39;s EVP and CFO Colette Kress stated that &#34;Data Center has become [NVIDIA&#39;s] largest market platform, and we see <i>continued strong momentum</i> going forward&#34; [emphasis by author].</p><p>During the most recent quarter, data center revenue totaled $3.8 billion, or around $15 billion annualized. That was up 15% on a sequential basis, and up more than 80% year over year. Growth will not always be this high, of course, but with NVIDIA&#39;s strong product lineup and the strong momentum its CFO has hinted at, investors can probably expect that the data center business will remain a major growth driver going forward.</p><p>Data centers are not the only attractive market for NVIDIA. The company is also well-positioned to benefit from a massive increase in high-end chip demand from the automobile industry. Automobiles have been using chips for many years, but the number of chips per vehicle and the power (and cost) of those chips are not static. While traditional cars didn&#39;t use a lot of chips in the past, and while those chips generally weren&#39;t very capable and thus pretty cheap, things are changing due to two megatrends.</p><p>First, electric vehicles use more chips than ICE-powered vehicles, due to additional tasks such as battery management. Even more importantly, the young but accelerating trend of autonomous vehicles increases the number of chips per car and requires much more powerful chips. More powerful chips naturally cost more and do thereby create a way larger revenue opportunity for suppliers to the automobile industry. Autonomous vehicles, or semi-autonomous vehicles, need to gather gigantic amounts of data via cameras, LiDAR, and so on. That data has to be processed very quickly, as (semi-) autonomous vehicles need to make decisions in split seconds.</p><p>NVIDIA is one of the suppliers of high-powered chips that can do this task, via its lineup of autonomous-focused products. The DRIVE Orin SoC is one such product that has gone into production earlier this year. The SoC has gotten a lot of attention from potential customers, and more than 35 customer wins have been announced to date. This includes major wins such as from Buffett-backed BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), which is China&#39;s biggest EV player and a major competitor to Tesla (TSLA). Lucid (LCID), which isn&#39;t very large yet but has received a lot of praise for its exceptional tech, has also agreed to use DRIVE Orin in its vehicles. CFO Colette Kress explains that NVIDIA&#39;s &#34;automotive design win pipeline now exceeds $11 billion over the next six years, up from $8 billion just a year ago&#34; (see link above). Year-over-year growth of close to 40% is great, and over time, that business should become way more impactful for NVIDIA&#39;s top and bottom line. So far, one can argue that revenue contribution isn&#39;t very large - $11 billion over six years is around $2 billion a year. But if growth remains sky-high, the autonomous business will likely become highly important in a couple of years. Due to the massive market growth for autonomous driving chips and due to NVIDIA ramping up its product line in this space and seemingly adding new customers every week, I do believe that there is a high likelihood of growth in this space to remain very strong for years to come.</p><p>Analysts believe that NVIDIA&#39;s revenue growth could look like this in the coming years:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/153c5bbed3d3f2ab39650f5ccde57b85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>25% growth this year would still be very strong, while growth in the following years will slow down to a 10%-15% range - if Wall Street is correct. The forecast for 2026 (ending January 2027) sees an acceleration towards the mid-20s again, but there are fewer analysts with estimates for that year, so this estimate likely is more uncertain compared to the next couple of years.</p><p>Even revenue growth of 15% or so would be sufficient to generate compelling longer-term returns, however. NVIDIA should, like most other companies, benefit from some margin expansion when it continues to grow its revenue. Operating leverage dictates that operating expenses, such as those for administration, should decline as a percentage of revenue and gross profit as a company grows over time. Net profit can thus be expected to grow somewhat faster than NVIDIA&#39;s revenues. On top of that, since NVIDIA has a clean balance sheet and a low dividend payout ratio, the company has ample surplus cash that can be used for other purposes, such as buybacks. NVIDIA has a $15 billion buyback program in place, which is enough to repurchase 4% of the company at current prices. Over time, these buybacks will add meaningfully to NVIDIA&#39;s earnings per share growth and its total return potential.</p><p><b>A Look At NVIDIA&#39;s Valuation And Risks</b></p><p>NVIDIA traded for as much as $350 over the last year, which was not justified. But since then, shares dropped by more than half. Today, NVIDIA trades well below the historic valuation norm:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b6a2084206ce7c222e2a70653bb2901\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>At 29x net profit, NVIDIA is valued at 25% less than the 10-year median earnings multiple. The discounts to the 5-year and 3-year earnings multiples are even larger, at around 50% and 60%, respectively. The market has cooled on NVIDIA, and it&#39;s likely that greed is no longer the driving force for NVIDIA&#39;s share price. Instead, some investors seem to be fearful, which is why NVIDIA has seen its share price drop so much in the last couple of months.</p><p>Panic selling by some investors can provide attractive entry points for other investors, and I do believe that such a buying opportunity is emerging. With NVIDIA trading for 29x forward earnings, while still growing at a compelling rate, the total return outlook is pretty solid. If NVIDIA hits the $5.40 EPS estimate this year and grows its earnings per share by 17% a year over the following three years, before EPS growth slows down to 14% for 2026-2030, then EPS could total $16.70 in 2030. Put a 20x earnings multiple on that and you get a share price of $340 - which equates to an upside potential of more than 100% over the next eight years, even under rather conservative assumptions. EPS growth could be higher, especially when we factor in buybacks, and the valuation in 2030 could also be higher. I do thus believe that the current sell-off in NVIDIA provides a nice entry point for long-term investors.</p><p>Risks shouldn&#39;t be neglected, however. The current crypto winter is a potential near-term headwind, as it may result in lower GPU sales in the coming quarters. In the long run, that should be more than balanced out by data center and autonomous growth, however.</p><p>NVIDIA&#39;s reliance on foundries is another risk. Especially the exposure to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM).</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>NVIDIA&#39;s shares have crashed, dropping by more than 50% from the 52-week high. This panic selling has made NVIDIA&#39;s valuation drop to a below-average level, as shares are now trading at a clear discount compared to how the company was valued in the past. At the same time, its growth outlook is still very compelling and its buybacks will be more effective with shares trading at a lower valuation.</p><p>For long-term-oriented investors, the selloff, which was driven by panic around rising rates, a potential recession, etc., makes for a nice entry point. Shares should be able to double through 2030, and returns could be significantly higher as that estimate already accounts for further multiple compression.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-20 23:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524190-nvidia-be-greedy-when-others-are-fearful?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNVIDIA has crashed in recent months. Investors panic about rising rates and a potential recession.NVIDIA's long-term growth outlook is compelling, however. Its buybacks will also be even more ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524190-nvidia-be-greedy-when-others-are-fearful?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524190-nvidia-be-greedy-when-others-are-fearful?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1110784633","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA has crashed in recent months. Investors panic about rising rates and a potential recession.NVIDIA's long-term growth outlook is compelling, however. Its buybacks will also be even more impactful following the share price drop.Even under conservative assumptions, the current share price crash makes for a solid entry point for long-term-oriented investors.martin-dmArticle ThesisNVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has seen its shares pull back massively in recent months. Shares are now trading at a discount compared to where they traded historically, for the first time in many years. Fear about its future has grippedthe market, but NVIDIA's long-term outlook is compelling since the long-term growth drivers remain in place. NVIDIA faces some short-term headwinds such as the crypto winter but should be a profitable investment at the current valuation for those that have a multi-year investment horizon.NVIDIA's Long-Term Growth Will Likely ContinueNVIDIA has experienced massive business growth in the last couple of years, and that should be the case in the future, too. Growth will likely slow down on a relative basis, but that is to be expected from every company, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining extraordinary relative growth rates becomes impossible at some point. But revenue growth of 30%, 50%, or even more per year is not needed for NVIDIA to be a good long-term investment. In fact, I do believe that even a 10% or 15% annual revenue growth rate could lead to compelling total returns for NVIDIA's shareholders when they hold for a long-enough time frame.Where will that growth come from? NVIDIA benefits from several macro trends that continue to grow its addressable market. The first one is data centers. Here, NVIDIA competes with AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) primarily. According to GMI Research, the global data center market will grow by12%a year through 2028, which allows for solid baseline growth in a scenario where NVIDIA does not take any market share from its competitors. That's not my assumption, however. Instead, I do believe that NVIDIA will continue to grow its data center business at an above-market growth rate thanks to its attractive offerings in this space. NVIDIA's HGX-1 hyperscale GPU accelerator, powered by eight NVIDIA Tesla GPUs, is the world's fastest product in its class. Its industry-leading performance makes it attractive for hyperscale data centers that can rely on its computing power, while cost advantages also make it attractive for buyers:NVIDIA websiteHGX-1's performance especially shines in deep learning and other AI-related tasks, where it outperforms traditional CPUs by up to 10,000%. With inflation hurting the margins of many companies, and with a potential recession eating into their growth outlook, many companies have become more focused on bringing down expenses and becoming more efficient (such as Meta Platforms (META) and Alphabet (GOOG)). With these major cloud computing players focusing more on efficiency and profitability, NVIDIA's massive cost advantages in machine learning and other AI-related tasks should be a huge selling point for its HGX-1 and similar products. In a recession, when cost controls are highly important, the most cost-efficient product should be especially attractive, which should help NVIDIA grow its market share.NVIDIA's management also is positive when it comes to the company's growth outlook in the data center space. In the most recent earnings call, NVIDIA's EVP and CFO Colette Kress stated that \"Data Center has become [NVIDIA's] largest market platform, and we see continued strong momentum going forward\" [emphasis by author].During the most recent quarter, data center revenue totaled $3.8 billion, or around $15 billion annualized. That was up 15% on a sequential basis, and up more than 80% year over year. Growth will not always be this high, of course, but with NVIDIA's strong product lineup and the strong momentum its CFO has hinted at, investors can probably expect that the data center business will remain a major growth driver going forward.Data centers are not the only attractive market for NVIDIA. The company is also well-positioned to benefit from a massive increase in high-end chip demand from the automobile industry. Automobiles have been using chips for many years, but the number of chips per vehicle and the power (and cost) of those chips are not static. While traditional cars didn't use a lot of chips in the past, and while those chips generally weren't very capable and thus pretty cheap, things are changing due to two megatrends.First, electric vehicles use more chips than ICE-powered vehicles, due to additional tasks such as battery management. Even more importantly, the young but accelerating trend of autonomous vehicles increases the number of chips per car and requires much more powerful chips. More powerful chips naturally cost more and do thereby create a way larger revenue opportunity for suppliers to the automobile industry. Autonomous vehicles, or semi-autonomous vehicles, need to gather gigantic amounts of data via cameras, LiDAR, and so on. That data has to be processed very quickly, as (semi-) autonomous vehicles need to make decisions in split seconds.NVIDIA is one of the suppliers of high-powered chips that can do this task, via its lineup of autonomous-focused products. The DRIVE Orin SoC is one such product that has gone into production earlier this year. The SoC has gotten a lot of attention from potential customers, and more than 35 customer wins have been announced to date. This includes major wins such as from Buffett-backed BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), which is China's biggest EV player and a major competitor to Tesla (TSLA). Lucid (LCID), which isn't very large yet but has received a lot of praise for its exceptional tech, has also agreed to use DRIVE Orin in its vehicles. CFO Colette Kress explains that NVIDIA's \"automotive design win pipeline now exceeds $11 billion over the next six years, up from $8 billion just a year ago\" (see link above). Year-over-year growth of close to 40% is great, and over time, that business should become way more impactful for NVIDIA's top and bottom line. So far, one can argue that revenue contribution isn't very large - $11 billion over six years is around $2 billion a year. But if growth remains sky-high, the autonomous business will likely become highly important in a couple of years. Due to the massive market growth for autonomous driving chips and due to NVIDIA ramping up its product line in this space and seemingly adding new customers every week, I do believe that there is a high likelihood of growth in this space to remain very strong for years to come.Analysts believe that NVIDIA's revenue growth could look like this in the coming years:Seeking Alpha25% growth this year would still be very strong, while growth in the following years will slow down to a 10%-15% range - if Wall Street is correct. The forecast for 2026 (ending January 2027) sees an acceleration towards the mid-20s again, but there are fewer analysts with estimates for that year, so this estimate likely is more uncertain compared to the next couple of years.Even revenue growth of 15% or so would be sufficient to generate compelling longer-term returns, however. NVIDIA should, like most other companies, benefit from some margin expansion when it continues to grow its revenue. Operating leverage dictates that operating expenses, such as those for administration, should decline as a percentage of revenue and gross profit as a company grows over time. Net profit can thus be expected to grow somewhat faster than NVIDIA's revenues. On top of that, since NVIDIA has a clean balance sheet and a low dividend payout ratio, the company has ample surplus cash that can be used for other purposes, such as buybacks. NVIDIA has a $15 billion buyback program in place, which is enough to repurchase 4% of the company at current prices. Over time, these buybacks will add meaningfully to NVIDIA's earnings per share growth and its total return potential.A Look At NVIDIA's Valuation And RisksNVIDIA traded for as much as $350 over the last year, which was not justified. But since then, shares dropped by more than half. Today, NVIDIA trades well below the historic valuation norm:Data by YChartsAt 29x net profit, NVIDIA is valued at 25% less than the 10-year median earnings multiple. The discounts to the 5-year and 3-year earnings multiples are even larger, at around 50% and 60%, respectively. The market has cooled on NVIDIA, and it's likely that greed is no longer the driving force for NVIDIA's share price. Instead, some investors seem to be fearful, which is why NVIDIA has seen its share price drop so much in the last couple of months.Panic selling by some investors can provide attractive entry points for other investors, and I do believe that such a buying opportunity is emerging. With NVIDIA trading for 29x forward earnings, while still growing at a compelling rate, the total return outlook is pretty solid. If NVIDIA hits the $5.40 EPS estimate this year and grows its earnings per share by 17% a year over the following three years, before EPS growth slows down to 14% for 2026-2030, then EPS could total $16.70 in 2030. Put a 20x earnings multiple on that and you get a share price of $340 - which equates to an upside potential of more than 100% over the next eight years, even under rather conservative assumptions. EPS growth could be higher, especially when we factor in buybacks, and the valuation in 2030 could also be higher. I do thus believe that the current sell-off in NVIDIA provides a nice entry point for long-term investors.Risks shouldn't be neglected, however. The current crypto winter is a potential near-term headwind, as it may result in lower GPU sales in the coming quarters. In the long run, that should be more than balanced out by data center and autonomous growth, however.NVIDIA's reliance on foundries is another risk. Especially the exposure to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM).TakeawayNVIDIA's shares have crashed, dropping by more than 50% from the 52-week high. This panic selling has made NVIDIA's valuation drop to a below-average level, as shares are now trading at a clear discount compared to how the company was valued in the past. At the same time, its growth outlook is still very compelling and its buybacks will be more effective with shares trading at a lower valuation.For long-term-oriented investors, the selloff, which was driven by panic around rising rates, a potential recession, etc., makes for a nice entry point. Shares should be able to double through 2030, and returns could be significantly higher as that estimate already accounts for further multiple compression.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}