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2021-03-25

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GameStop: The Only Thing That Can Stop Another Crash

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For an example as to why I say this, we need only look at what has been happening with<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME). The company has experienced extreme volatility recently, caused by speculators punishing short sellers. As I stated in a&nbsp;prior article, there was really only one way that the current valuation of the retailer could be justified: if management ultimately issued a significant amount of shares at these lofty prices. Otherwise, the company is destined to see its share price retreat materially. After the publication of that article, shares of the firm did indeed plummet, but recently, they have soared again.</p>\n<p>Some of this increase might be legitimate as the firm is showing promise in converting a sizable portion of its sales to online sales, but by and large, recent performance cannot explain the spike. Now, management is finally pointing to signs that they may issue shares in order to raise a significant amount of cash and use it to transform the company. While nothing is set in stone, this could help to justify the company’s high share price, essentially serving as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Absent this, though, investors should still be very cautious about the firm and in all likelihood should brace for shares to fall again.</p>\n<p><b>Some good news, some bad news</b></p>\n<p>And it’s fourth-quarter earnings release for its&nbsp;2020 fiscal year, GameStop reported some rather mixed results. First, let’s start with the&nbsp;headline news. As has been reported elsewhere, the company did mess expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Non-GAAP EPS came in $0.08 below estimates and GAAP EPS came in $0.29 below estimates. Revenue, meanwhile, missed by $110 million. In response to these headlines, shares of the company plummeted March 24th, closing down nearly 34%.</p>\n<p>At first glance, these results compared to expectations look bad. In some ways, when you dig in deeper, the picture worsens. As an example, while net income of $80.5 million with nearly 4 times higher than the $21 million in the same time a year earlier, when you look at earnings from continuing operations, dropped from $68.7 million to $10.6 million. Operating cash flow also suffered, declining from $240.3 million to $164.8 million. In all fairness, for the entire year, operating cash flow did come in stronger. For 2020, the figure was $123.7 million. This compares to a net outflow in 2019 at $414.5 million. However, when you adjust for changes to working capital, operating cash flow actually worsened. In 2019, it totaled $96.3 million. For 2020, we saw a net outflow of $57.3 million. EBITDA, meanwhile, dropped in the fourth quarter from $136.2 million to $50.3 million, and for the year declined from $166.8 million to -$149.4 million.</p>\n<p>Pain was not just on the bottom line though for the company. In fact, a large part of it was caused by March and contraction as revenue plummeted. Caused in part by the COVID-19 pandemic, and also caused by the closure, on the net basis, of 693 stores, revenue dropped from $6.47 billion in 2019 to $5.09 billion in 2020. Management points out that comparable store sales grew 6.5% in the fourth quarter, which beats out the 4.7% analysts anticipated. But if you look at the year as a whole, comparable store sales dropped by 13.9%. One bright spot here is that as the COVID-19 pandemic eventually winds down, investors should expect comparable store sales to see at least a one-time bump higher. One example of this can be seen in the companies February 2021 comparable sales. According to management, this figure came in 23% higher than it was the same time last year.</p>\n<p>One other bright spot that some investors might point to are the sales generated by the company in the fourth quarter. Despite the store account at the company plummeting, revenue dropped by only 3.3%. However, this was masked in a sense by strong hardware sales and accessories sales as console demand for 9th generation devices produced by&nbsp;<b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) and&nbsp;<b>Sony</b>(SNE) came in strong. This is part of the cycle that occurs every few years when new consoles come out and old ones are parted with or set aside. It should not be viewed as a permanent push higher.</p>\n<p>By most measures, the picture facing GameStop is bad. Especially seeing negative EBITDA. When EBITDA, a figure that management can have great leeway with when calculating, is negative, you know the company in question has problems. That is not to say though that the retailer had nothing but bad news. Truly, there was some great news. First and foremost, we have rising e-commerce revenue. According to management, this figure surged 175% compared to what it was the same time last year. For the fourth quarter of 2020, it was 34% of net sales. This compares to 12% the same time one year earlier. For the year as a whole, sales surged 191%, and in 2020 accounted for 30% of the company’s net revenue. Based on my estimates, this would mean that revenue associated with online sales grew from $799 million in 2019 to $1.53 billion in 2020.</p>\n<p>Another really great thing about the company is that it actually has negative net debt. As of now, the firm has around $635 million in cash. This compares to $362.7 million in debt. So long as cash flows can remain neutral or positive, this implies no real chance of bankruptcy for the firm. Of course, this might be a tall order for a firm that continues to close the number of locations that has in operation. Back in 2016, for instance, the company had 6,132 stores operating. Today, that figure is around 4,816. And of the 693 closed in 2020, 450 are located in the US. Management was basically forced to do this, but even with that happening, net income has been negative in three of the past five years, while comparable store sales have been down and four of the last five years. In fact, aggregate comparable store sales declines over the past five years came out to 31.5%.</p>\n<p>Surely, the shift toward online sales is great for the company in a number of ways. However, that alone will not save the business. Consider console sales over the&nbsp;past several years. And in its lifetime, the PlayStation 2 saw 53.65 million units sold. PlayStation 4 sales, meanwhile, have totaled just 37.36 million. In all, the Xbox One has sold 31.39 million units compared to the 49.11 million units of the Xbox 360 sold. The latest model of Xbox, the Series X, has seen sales so far&nbsp;hit&nbsp;just 2.8 million units, down from the 2.9 million seen the same time period that the Xbox One was out. And despite being an excellent product, the 4.5 million units of the PlayStation 5&nbsp;sold&nbsp;just match the number of PlayStation 4 units sold in their respective first quarters. All of this is occurring despite the fact that video game sales are soaring through the roof. Most of that growth is happening in mobile, and what isn’t occurring there seems to be on the PC and software side. And that is not a category the GameStop thrives in. Even in the fourth quarter of last year, software sales for the company came in 25.7% lower than they were a year earlier.</p>\n<p>One thing that could work out well for the company, if it takes place, would be a significant selling of shares on the market. In releasing its fourth quarter results, the company announced that they might do something with a share issuance, but details have not been provided. In fact, the company has largely been silent on the matter otherwise. With the top and bottom lines of the firm struggling, and a drastic change in business needed, I feel the only way for the company to justify evaluation anywhere near the $8.42 billion that the market has assigned it is to dilute shareholders significantly and to allocate that capital toward new and bold initiatives.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Right now, there are some positive things regarding GameStop. However, the data is mostly negative. While online sales have been a bright spot for the company, it is highly unlikely that they will fully support the firm in the long run. What the company really needs to do a shift toward a software focus where it can specialize in its own content creation, but all the firm has talked about, for the most part when it comes to transforming, involves improving customer service, investing in technology, and other generic things of that nature. With a market capitalization right now of $8.42 billion, management could perhaps make a radical jump toward restructuring the company and justifying its current value if it were to issue a sizable amount of common stock. But, absent that, I still believe shares will move back down to around $20 apiece in the long run.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop: The Only Thing That Can Stop Another Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop: The Only Thing That Can Stop Another Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-25 22:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415977-gamestop-only-thing-can-stop-another-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGameStop reported a rather mixed, but mostly bearish, quarter to end out 2020.\nWhile there was some good news, the bad news was significant in nature.\nThe company is worth far less than it’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415977-gamestop-only-thing-can-stop-another-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415977-gamestop-only-thing-can-stop-another-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1143042915","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop reported a rather mixed, but mostly bearish, quarter to end out 2020.\nWhile there was some good news, the bad news was significant in nature.\nThe company is worth far less than it’s trading for, but one thing management revealed could save it from an eventual crash.\n\nPhoto by Spencer Platt/Getty Images News via Getty Images\n2021 is already proving to be a rather interesting year for investors and speculators alike. For an example as to why I say this, we need only look at what has been happening withGameStop(NYSE:GME). The company has experienced extreme volatility recently, caused by speculators punishing short sellers. As I stated in a prior article, there was really only one way that the current valuation of the retailer could be justified: if management ultimately issued a significant amount of shares at these lofty prices. Otherwise, the company is destined to see its share price retreat materially. After the publication of that article, shares of the firm did indeed plummet, but recently, they have soared again.\nSome of this increase might be legitimate as the firm is showing promise in converting a sizable portion of its sales to online sales, but by and large, recent performance cannot explain the spike. Now, management is finally pointing to signs that they may issue shares in order to raise a significant amount of cash and use it to transform the company. While nothing is set in stone, this could help to justify the company’s high share price, essentially serving as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Absent this, though, investors should still be very cautious about the firm and in all likelihood should brace for shares to fall again.\nSome good news, some bad news\nAnd it’s fourth-quarter earnings release for its 2020 fiscal year, GameStop reported some rather mixed results. First, let’s start with the headline news. As has been reported elsewhere, the company did mess expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Non-GAAP EPS came in $0.08 below estimates and GAAP EPS came in $0.29 below estimates. Revenue, meanwhile, missed by $110 million. In response to these headlines, shares of the company plummeted March 24th, closing down nearly 34%.\nAt first glance, these results compared to expectations look bad. In some ways, when you dig in deeper, the picture worsens. As an example, while net income of $80.5 million with nearly 4 times higher than the $21 million in the same time a year earlier, when you look at earnings from continuing operations, dropped from $68.7 million to $10.6 million. Operating cash flow also suffered, declining from $240.3 million to $164.8 million. In all fairness, for the entire year, operating cash flow did come in stronger. For 2020, the figure was $123.7 million. This compares to a net outflow in 2019 at $414.5 million. However, when you adjust for changes to working capital, operating cash flow actually worsened. In 2019, it totaled $96.3 million. For 2020, we saw a net outflow of $57.3 million. EBITDA, meanwhile, dropped in the fourth quarter from $136.2 million to $50.3 million, and for the year declined from $166.8 million to -$149.4 million.\nPain was not just on the bottom line though for the company. In fact, a large part of it was caused by March and contraction as revenue plummeted. Caused in part by the COVID-19 pandemic, and also caused by the closure, on the net basis, of 693 stores, revenue dropped from $6.47 billion in 2019 to $5.09 billion in 2020. Management points out that comparable store sales grew 6.5% in the fourth quarter, which beats out the 4.7% analysts anticipated. But if you look at the year as a whole, comparable store sales dropped by 13.9%. One bright spot here is that as the COVID-19 pandemic eventually winds down, investors should expect comparable store sales to see at least a one-time bump higher. One example of this can be seen in the companies February 2021 comparable sales. According to management, this figure came in 23% higher than it was the same time last year.\nOne other bright spot that some investors might point to are the sales generated by the company in the fourth quarter. Despite the store account at the company plummeting, revenue dropped by only 3.3%. However, this was masked in a sense by strong hardware sales and accessories sales as console demand for 9th generation devices produced by Microsoft(MSFT) and Sony(SNE) came in strong. This is part of the cycle that occurs every few years when new consoles come out and old ones are parted with or set aside. It should not be viewed as a permanent push higher.\nBy most measures, the picture facing GameStop is bad. Especially seeing negative EBITDA. When EBITDA, a figure that management can have great leeway with when calculating, is negative, you know the company in question has problems. That is not to say though that the retailer had nothing but bad news. Truly, there was some great news. First and foremost, we have rising e-commerce revenue. According to management, this figure surged 175% compared to what it was the same time last year. For the fourth quarter of 2020, it was 34% of net sales. This compares to 12% the same time one year earlier. For the year as a whole, sales surged 191%, and in 2020 accounted for 30% of the company’s net revenue. Based on my estimates, this would mean that revenue associated with online sales grew from $799 million in 2019 to $1.53 billion in 2020.\nAnother really great thing about the company is that it actually has negative net debt. As of now, the firm has around $635 million in cash. This compares to $362.7 million in debt. So long as cash flows can remain neutral or positive, this implies no real chance of bankruptcy for the firm. Of course, this might be a tall order for a firm that continues to close the number of locations that has in operation. Back in 2016, for instance, the company had 6,132 stores operating. Today, that figure is around 4,816. And of the 693 closed in 2020, 450 are located in the US. Management was basically forced to do this, but even with that happening, net income has been negative in three of the past five years, while comparable store sales have been down and four of the last five years. In fact, aggregate comparable store sales declines over the past five years came out to 31.5%.\nSurely, the shift toward online sales is great for the company in a number of ways. However, that alone will not save the business. Consider console sales over the past several years. And in its lifetime, the PlayStation 2 saw 53.65 million units sold. PlayStation 4 sales, meanwhile, have totaled just 37.36 million. In all, the Xbox One has sold 31.39 million units compared to the 49.11 million units of the Xbox 360 sold. The latest model of Xbox, the Series X, has seen sales so far hit just 2.8 million units, down from the 2.9 million seen the same time period that the Xbox One was out. And despite being an excellent product, the 4.5 million units of the PlayStation 5 sold just match the number of PlayStation 4 units sold in their respective first quarters. All of this is occurring despite the fact that video game sales are soaring through the roof. Most of that growth is happening in mobile, and what isn’t occurring there seems to be on the PC and software side. And that is not a category the GameStop thrives in. Even in the fourth quarter of last year, software sales for the company came in 25.7% lower than they were a year earlier.\nOne thing that could work out well for the company, if it takes place, would be a significant selling of shares on the market. In releasing its fourth quarter results, the company announced that they might do something with a share issuance, but details have not been provided. In fact, the company has largely been silent on the matter otherwise. With the top and bottom lines of the firm struggling, and a drastic change in business needed, I feel the only way for the company to justify evaluation anywhere near the $8.42 billion that the market has assigned it is to dilute shareholders significantly and to allocate that capital toward new and bold initiatives.\nTakeaway\nRight now, there are some positive things regarding GameStop. However, the data is mostly negative. While online sales have been a bright spot for the company, it is highly unlikely that they will fully support the firm in the long run. What the company really needs to do a shift toward a software focus where it can specialize in its own content creation, but all the firm has talked about, for the most part when it comes to transforming, involves improving customer service, investing in technology, and other generic things of that nature. With a market capitalization right now of $8.42 billion, management could perhaps make a radical jump toward restructuring the company and justifying its current value if it were to issue a sizable amount of common stock. But, absent that, I still believe shares will move back down to around $20 apiece in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":358685050,"gmtCreate":1616685193270,"gmtModify":1704797477555,"author":{"id":"3579172970429593","authorId":"3579172970429593","authorIdStr":"3579172970429593","name":"Carbon_","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579172970429593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358685050","repostId":"1143042915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}