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2021-06-03

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拆股浪潮卷土重来，美股牛市再迎助力？

2021-05-26

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三大因素表明，科技股“水逆期”仍未结束

2021-04-12

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2021-04-11

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2021-04-09

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2021-04-07

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抄底中概股！芒格看上阿里，“女版巴菲特”加仓百度

2021-04-05

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@TigerOptions:這周重要點位

2021-04-03

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@可乐财经老林:新能源汽車暴跌能不能抄底特斯拉蔚來小鵬汽車股票深度分析特斯拉vs蔚來vs小鵬$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$ $蔚來(NIO)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 美股分析蔚來芯片短缺，停產一週，你認爲是否是一個銷售差的藉口？你會抄底嗎？歡迎大家來B站/油管Youtube關注以及訂閱我的影片 (可樂財經老林投資 CL Investments)求推廣：@孟浩 @Tony特別帥@愛發紅包的虎妞@小虎AV

2021-04-03

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2021-03-23

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08:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拆股浪潮卷土重来，美股牛市再迎助力？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184714420","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"历史数据显示，认为拆股有利于股票长期表现的说法是站不住脚的。比如，就标普500强股票的平均表现而言，在拆股发生之前的五年时间当中，拆股股票有四年的表现都是好于指数本身的，但是在拆股发生之后的五年时间当中，该股票的表现则有四年是不及基准指标的。近期以来，股票拆分再度成为了美国上市企业的一种时尚，而这种曾经被华尔街抛弃多年的实践东山再起是否合理，也成为了坊间热议的焦点。","content":"<blockquote>\n <i>历史数据显示，认为拆股有利于股票长期表现的说法是站不住脚的。比如，就标普500强股票的平均表现而言，在拆股发生之前的五年时间当中，拆股股票有四年的表现都是好于指数本身的，但是在拆股发生之后的五年时间当中，该股票的表现则有四年是不及基准指标的。</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69508d74da68bae02b72421f3109cb72\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>近期以来，股票拆分再度成为了美国上市企业的一种时尚，而这种曾经被华尔街抛弃多年的实践东山再起是否合理，也成为了坊间热议的焦点。</p>\n<p>上周，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>成为了过去一年以来第八家宣布拆股的标普500强企业，而此前这么做了的公司当中不乏大名鼎鼎的角色，比如大家耳熟能详的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>等。根据彭博的数据，这么短的时间之内，这么多的标普500成份股拆股，上次出现类似情况还要追溯到六年之前。</p>\n<p>拆股大潮再度兴起的背景是，美股在过去一年多时间当中上演了令人目眩的大涨势，罗素3000指数当中有近600只成份股的价格都超过了100美元。</p>\n<p>于是乎，投资者当中那由来已久，却至今没有结果的争论也再度升温——拆股到底是促进股价进一步上涨的引擎，还是未来可能涨势的拖累？事实上，近年以来，伴随散户投资者交易的日益增加，以及所谓零股，即零星股票持有架构的出现，这一争论已经是暗流涌动。</p>\n<p>“从纯数学角度看来，那种宣称拆股是好事的观点可以说是没有任何根据的。”JMPSecurities首席执行官莱曼（Mark Lehmann）解释道，“可是，对于处在特定价位的特定股票而言，拆股却又确实可以给人以一种视觉层面的不同感受，对于一部分投资大众而言，要改变的他们的这种想法也是很难的。”</p>\n<p>其实，企业会选择拆股，最主要的动机是非常简单的——让每一股的价格变得低廉，让投资者更方便买进。英伟达的股价目前已经达到了大约650美元，从2019年年初算起翻了两番。该公司于是发表声明称要进行一分为四的拆股，旨在“让投资者和员工更容易持有股票”。</p>\n<p>曾经，拆股被广泛视为牛市的一种典型特征，失去市场的广泛青睐其实只是不久前的事情。在2006年和2007年，即上一个美股大盘创下新高的周期，标普500强当中有47家选择了拆股，而其中三家，即英伟达、Paccar和Cummins，甚至连续拆分两次。可是到了2019年，全年也只有2家标普500强选择拆股。</p>\n<p>BTIG首席股票和衍生产品策略师伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）解释说，现在拆股的决定越来越难以做出，是因为交易平台发生了变化，简而言之就是免佣金券商兴起，以及零股机制出现。这些发展“很大程度上已经使得一只股票的价格高低变得不再相干了”。</p>\n<p>Robinhood等券商现在都允许投资者只买进一只股票的一部分，比如说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet的A类股票，价格超过2300美元，而投资者只买1美元也是可以的。</p>\n<p>历史数据显示，认为拆股有利于股票长期表现的说法是站不住脚的。比如，就标普500强股票的平均表现而言，在拆股发生之前的五年时间当中，拆股股票有四年的表现都是好于指数本身的，但是在拆股发生之后的五年时间当中，该股票的表现则有四年是不及基准指标的。</p>\n<p>新一轮拆股潮的兴起也引起了市场的广泛猜测，很多投资者都觉得其他大科技公司也可能跟进，采取类似行动，比如股价已经达到四位数的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>。在1998年至1999年间，亚马逊曾经连续三次拆股，但是在那之后，这种事情就再也没有发生过。电商巨头目前的股价已经超过3200美元，自最后一次拆股至今，历史涨幅超过了5000%。</p>\n<p>且不说历史表现记录在发出怎样的信号，过去一年以来，散户投资者全线崛起，成为市场当中高度活跃的一支力量，这或许也是许多公司开始打起拆股算盘的一个重要原因。</p>\n<p>彭博的数据显示，现在，美国散户交易者在市场上的交易总量排名，已经仅次于做市商和独立高频交易商。散户群体现在甚至已经超过了量化投资者群体、对冲基金，以及传统的多头玩家。</p>\n<p>“大量投资现在都是由心理学因素驱动的。” Jensen InvestmentManagement投资组合经理人沃尔库什（Kevin Walkush）指出，“现在，散户投资者再也不必面对是否选择零股的考虑了，他们完全可以直接买进拆分后的股票。这就意味着，市场的大门正对散户日益敞开。”</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拆股浪潮卷土重来，美股牛市再迎助力？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拆股浪潮卷土重来，美股牛市再迎助力？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-03 08:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8WAlSLJhzX4EUUfsMOKuBQ><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>历史数据显示，认为拆股有利于股票长期表现的说法是站不住脚的。比如，就标普500强股票的平均表现而言，在拆股发生之前的五年时间当中，拆股股票有四年的表现都是好于指数本身的，但是在拆股发生之后的五年时间当中，该股票的表现则有四年是不及基准指标的。\n\n\n近期以来，股票拆分再度成为了美国上市企业的一种时尚，而这种曾经被华尔街抛弃多年的实践东山再起是否合理，也成为了坊间热议的焦点。\n上周，英伟达成为了过去...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8WAlSLJhzX4EUUfsMOKuBQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8WAlSLJhzX4EUUfsMOKuBQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184714420","content_text":"历史数据显示，认为拆股有利于股票长期表现的说法是站不住脚的。比如，就标普500强股票的平均表现而言，在拆股发生之前的五年时间当中，拆股股票有四年的表现都是好于指数本身的，但是在拆股发生之后的五年时间当中，该股票的表现则有四年是不及基准指标的。\n\n\n近期以来，股票拆分再度成为了美国上市企业的一种时尚，而这种曾经被华尔街抛弃多年的实践东山再起是否合理，也成为了坊间热议的焦点。\n上周，英伟达成为了过去一年以来第八家宣布拆股的标普500强企业，而此前这么做了的公司当中不乏大名鼎鼎的角色，比如大家耳熟能详的苹果和特斯拉等。根据彭博的数据，这么短的时间之内，这么多的标普500成份股拆股，上次出现类似情况还要追溯到六年之前。\n拆股大潮再度兴起的背景是，美股在过去一年多时间当中上演了令人目眩的大涨势，罗素3000指数当中有近600只成份股的价格都超过了100美元。\n于是乎，投资者当中那由来已久，却至今没有结果的争论也再度升温——拆股到底是促进股价进一步上涨的引擎，还是未来可能涨势的拖累？事实上，近年以来，伴随散户投资者交易的日益增加，以及所谓零股，即零星股票持有架构的出现，这一争论已经是暗流涌动。\n“从纯数学角度看来，那种宣称拆股是好事的观点可以说是没有任何根据的。”JMPSecurities首席执行官莱曼（Mark Lehmann）解释道，“可是，对于处在特定价位的特定股票而言，拆股却又确实可以给人以一种视觉层面的不同感受，对于一部分投资大众而言，要改变的他们的这种想法也是很难的。”\n其实，企业会选择拆股，最主要的动机是非常简单的——让每一股的价格变得低廉，让投资者更方便买进。英伟达的股价目前已经达到了大约650美元，从2019年年初算起翻了两番。该公司于是发表声明称要进行一分为四的拆股，旨在“让投资者和员工更容易持有股票”。\n曾经，拆股被广泛视为牛市的一种典型特征，失去市场的广泛青睐其实只是不久前的事情。在2006年和2007年，即上一个美股大盘创下新高的周期，标普500强当中有47家选择了拆股，而其中三家，即英伟达、Paccar和Cummins，甚至连续拆分两次。可是到了2019年，全年也只有2家标普500强选择拆股。\nBTIG首席股票和衍生产品策略师伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）解释说，现在拆股的决定越来越难以做出，是因为交易平台发生了变化，简而言之就是免佣金券商兴起，以及零股机制出现。这些发展“很大程度上已经使得一只股票的价格高低变得不再相干了”。\nRobinhood等券商现在都允许投资者只买进一只股票的一部分，比如说谷歌母公司Alphabet的A类股票，价格超过2300美元，而投资者只买1美元也是可以的。\n历史数据显示，认为拆股有利于股票长期表现的说法是站不住脚的。比如，就标普500强股票的平均表现而言，在拆股发生之前的五年时间当中，拆股股票有四年的表现都是好于指数本身的，但是在拆股发生之后的五年时间当中，该股票的表现则有四年是不及基准指标的。\n新一轮拆股潮的兴起也引起了市场的广泛猜测，很多投资者都觉得其他大科技公司也可能跟进，采取类似行动，比如股价已经达到四位数的亚马逊。在1998年至1999年间，亚马逊曾经连续三次拆股，但是在那之后，这种事情就再也没有发生过。电商巨头目前的股价已经超过3200美元，自最后一次拆股至今，历史涨幅超过了5000%。\n且不说历史表现记录在发出怎样的信号，过去一年以来，散户投资者全线崛起，成为市场当中高度活跃的一支力量，这或许也是许多公司开始打起拆股算盘的一个重要原因。\n彭博的数据显示，现在，美国散户交易者在市场上的交易总量排名，已经仅次于做市商和独立高频交易商。散户群体现在甚至已经超过了量化投资者群体、对冲基金，以及传统的多头玩家。\n“大量投资现在都是由心理学因素驱动的。” Jensen InvestmentManagement投资组合经理人沃尔库什（Kevin Walkush）指出，“现在，散户投资者再也不必面对是否选择零股的考虑了，他们完全可以直接买进拆分后的股票。这就意味着，市场的大门正对散户日益敞开。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136741913,"gmtCreate":1622041549932,"gmtModify":1704178419116,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136741913","repostId":"2138519408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138519408","pubTimestamp":1622011111,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138519408?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"三大因素表明，科技股“水逆期”仍未结束","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138519408","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14","content":"<p>随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。</p>\n<p>4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14211点的纪录高点。自那以来，该指数回调已接近3%。尽管该指数周一超过1.5%的涨幅可能会让一些投资者放心，但过去10年引领市场的科技股的宏观驱动力仍面临挑战。</p>\n<p>RBC策略师Lori Calvasina表示：“我们认为科技领域的基本面没有任何问题，但我们认为，这是市场上被过度持有、估值过高的一部分，目前对这部分市场来说，这是一个错误的宏观背景。”</p>\n<p>当前市场的背景是，随着经济在一场疫情引发的冲击后重新开放，增长和通胀正在加速。因此，与能够在其他环境中获得增长的领域和投资风格相比，从GDP加速增长中获益更多的行业和投资风格更受青睐。</p>\n<p>以Parag Thatte为首的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>策略师上周五发布报告显示，投资者继续将资金投入被视为通胀赢家的股票和固定收益产品，如TIPS、能源、材料和金融类股。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>能源、材料和金融类股在周期性交易、价值交易和重新开放交易中也有很好的表现。大宗商品价格飙升，对基础设施的期望也在上升。更高的经济增长与更高的利率相结合，为金融体系注入了活力。</p>\n<p>进入这一领域的资金来自于减少科技交易的投资者。Calvasina称：\"我们认为通胀压力已经存在，科技行业是重返通货再膨胀的最大资金来源之一……所以我们认为现在还不是回到这个领域的最佳时机。”</p>\n<p>在上周发表的一份报告中，Calvasina和她的团队从不同的角度深入研究了投资者风格的转变，试图探索大型科技公司的回调是否已经充分。而几大原因表明，目前科技公司的回调尚未结束。</p>\n<p>Calvasina指出，相对于市场其他部分和科技股的历史估值，科技股当前的估值仍然偏高。正如我们上面提到的，资金流入情况并不令人鼓舞，今年科技ETF的资金流入持平。</p>\n<p><b>经济数据令市场失望</b></p>\n<p>4月份消费者信心指数低于预期，美国经济谘商会(Conference Board)上月的整体信心指数跌幅超过预期。美国经济谘商会指出，至少在一定程度上，短期收入前景受到通胀担忧的压力。周二上午公布的另一份报告显示，3月份房价创下15年来的最大涨幅，突显出经济中更多关键领域的供需不匹配推高了房价。</p>\n<p>不过，美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)部分成员暗示，市场人士可能不需要担心物价上涨会在短期内促成货币政策的近期变动。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德(James Bullard)周一对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">雅虎</a>财经表示，他认为通胀上升\"大多是暂时的\"，而美联储在讨论缩减资产购买规模时\"还没有达到\"。</p>\n<p>堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主席埃斯特•乔治在另一篇评论中表示，她不希望美联储\"在判断通胀前景时过度依赖历史关系和动态\"。美联储官员最近发表了一系列讲话，淡化了采取短期货币政策措施的必要性，这些措施可能会抑制市场涨势。</p>\n<p>尽管在上周的股市抛售之后，过去两天的交易给投资者提供了至少短暂的喘息机会，但鉴于对通胀的担忧仍居高不下，一些策略师仍对股市持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>TD Ameritrade高级市场策略师Shawn Cruz周一对雅虎财经表示，\"现在所有人都知道，他们应该担心通胀压力，以及这可能对货币政策或企业盈利能力造成的影响。\"“如果他们决定将不断上升的投入成本保留在资产负债表上，那很好，至少在消费者方面，我们不会看到通胀上升，但(第二季度)盈利出来时，我们可能会看到利润率上升。”</p>\n<p>其他人也指出，最新的技术引领的进步可能是短暂的。Calvasina表示：“我们仍认为通胀压力存在，人们将资金从科技股移至其他板块，如金融股、能源股和材料股。我们不认为这些通胀压力会在短期内减轻。”</p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>三大因素表明，科技股“水逆期”仍未结束</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n三大因素表明，科技股“水逆期”仍未结束\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-26 14:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html><strong>Wind资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14211点的纪录高点。自那以来，该指数回调已接近3%。尽管该指数周一超过1.5%的涨幅可能会让一些投资者放心，但过去10年引领市场的科技股的宏观驱动力仍面临挑战。\nRBC策略师Lori ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d770a193c6a88684d0203fd2ec91e4a","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138519408","content_text":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14211点的纪录高点。自那以来，该指数回调已接近3%。尽管该指数周一超过1.5%的涨幅可能会让一些投资者放心，但过去10年引领市场的科技股的宏观驱动力仍面临挑战。\nRBC策略师Lori Calvasina表示：“我们认为科技领域的基本面没有任何问题，但我们认为，这是市场上被过度持有、估值过高的一部分，目前对这部分市场来说，这是一个错误的宏观背景。”\n当前市场的背景是，随着经济在一场疫情引发的冲击后重新开放，增长和通胀正在加速。因此，与能够在其他环境中获得增长的领域和投资风格相比，从GDP加速增长中获益更多的行业和投资风格更受青睐。\n以Parag Thatte为首的德意志银行策略师上周五发布报告显示，投资者继续将资金投入被视为通胀赢家的股票和固定收益产品，如TIPS、能源、材料和金融类股。\n\n能源、材料和金融类股在周期性交易、价值交易和重新开放交易中也有很好的表现。大宗商品价格飙升，对基础设施的期望也在上升。更高的经济增长与更高的利率相结合，为金融体系注入了活力。\n进入这一领域的资金来自于减少科技交易的投资者。Calvasina称：\"我们认为通胀压力已经存在，科技行业是重返通货再膨胀的最大资金来源之一……所以我们认为现在还不是回到这个领域的最佳时机。”\n在上周发表的一份报告中，Calvasina和她的团队从不同的角度深入研究了投资者风格的转变，试图探索大型科技公司的回调是否已经充分。而几大原因表明，目前科技公司的回调尚未结束。\nCalvasina指出，相对于市场其他部分和科技股的历史估值，科技股当前的估值仍然偏高。正如我们上面提到的，资金流入情况并不令人鼓舞，今年科技ETF的资金流入持平。\n经济数据令市场失望\n4月份消费者信心指数低于预期，美国经济谘商会(Conference Board)上月的整体信心指数跌幅超过预期。美国经济谘商会指出，至少在一定程度上，短期收入前景受到通胀担忧的压力。周二上午公布的另一份报告显示，3月份房价创下15年来的最大涨幅，突显出经济中更多关键领域的供需不匹配推高了房价。\n不过，美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)部分成员暗示，市场人士可能不需要担心物价上涨会在短期内促成货币政策的近期变动。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德(James Bullard)周一对雅虎财经表示，他认为通胀上升\"大多是暂时的\"，而美联储在讨论缩减资产购买规模时\"还没有达到\"。\n堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主席埃斯特•乔治在另一篇评论中表示，她不希望美联储\"在判断通胀前景时过度依赖历史关系和动态\"。美联储官员最近发表了一系列讲话，淡化了采取短期货币政策措施的必要性，这些措施可能会抑制市场涨势。\n尽管在上周的股市抛售之后，过去两天的交易给投资者提供了至少短暂的喘息机会，但鉴于对通胀的担忧仍居高不下，一些策略师仍对股市持谨慎态度。\nTD Ameritrade高级市场策略师Shawn Cruz周一对雅虎财经表示，\"现在所有人都知道，他们应该担心通胀压力，以及这可能对货币政策或企业盈利能力造成的影响。\"“如果他们决定将不断上升的投入成本保留在资产负债表上，那很好，至少在消费者方面，我们不会看到通胀上升，但(第二季度)盈利出来时，我们可能会看到利润率上升。”\n其他人也指出，最新的技术引领的进步可能是短暂的。Calvasina表示：“我们仍认为通胀压力存在，人们将资金从科技股移至其他板块，如金融股、能源股和材料股。我们不认为这些通胀压力会在短期内减轻。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342594651,"gmtCreate":1618229660573,"gmtModify":1704707785299,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342594651","repostId":"1163218788","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346734439,"gmtCreate":1618111422321,"gmtModify":1704706704135,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346734439","repostId":"2126006034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348571920,"gmtCreate":1617946489360,"gmtModify":1704705166492,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348571920","repostId":"1160193963","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341859836,"gmtCreate":1617804172325,"gmtModify":1704703369922,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341859836","repostId":"1101500877","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101500877","pubTimestamp":1617773331,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101500877?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-07 13:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"抄底中概股！芒格看上阿里，“女版巴菲特”加仓百度","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101500877","media":"上海证券报","summary":"巴菲特老搭档查理·芒格建仓买入阿里巴巴、“女版巴菲特” 凯瑟琳·伍德加仓百度、京东……趁着中概股异常下跌，华尔街大佬们正忙着抄底中概股。\n“女版巴菲特”持续加仓百度\n被称为“女版巴菲特”的凯瑟琳·伍德","content":"<div>\n<p>巴菲特老搭档查理·芒格建仓买入阿里巴巴、“女版巴菲特” 凯瑟琳·伍德加仓百度、京东……趁着中概股异常下跌，华尔街大佬们正忙着抄底中概股。\n“女版巴菲特”持续加仓百度\n被称为“女版巴菲特”的凯瑟琳·伍德一直保持着对中概股的高度关注。近期，在部分中概股股价大幅下降之际，凯瑟琳·伍德却在悄悄加仓。\n与巴菲特不同，凯瑟琳·伍德专注于前沿科技领域。目前，凯瑟琳·伍德一手掌管的ARK产品中有五个主动基金：...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r3RK3nJ8gyNVxr_mQLwQBQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>抄底中概股！芒格看上阿里，“女版巴菲特”加仓百度</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n抄底中概股！芒格看上阿里，“女版巴菲特”加仓百度\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-07 13:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r3RK3nJ8gyNVxr_mQLwQBQ><strong>上海证券报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>巴菲特老搭档查理·芒格建仓买入阿里巴巴、“女版巴菲特” 凯瑟琳·伍德加仓百度、京东……趁着中概股异常下跌，华尔街大佬们正忙着抄底中概股。\n“女版巴菲特”持续加仓百度\n被称为“女版巴菲特”的凯瑟琳·伍德一直保持着对中概股的高度关注。近期，在部分中概股股价大幅下降之际，凯瑟琳·伍德却在悄悄加仓。\n与巴菲特不同，凯瑟琳·伍德专注于前沿科技领域。目前，凯瑟琳·伍德一手掌管的ARK产品中有五个主动基金：...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r3RK3nJ8gyNVxr_mQLwQBQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BIDU":"百度","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r3RK3nJ8gyNVxr_mQLwQBQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101500877","content_text":"巴菲特老搭档查理·芒格建仓买入阿里巴巴、“女版巴菲特” 凯瑟琳·伍德加仓百度、京东……趁着中概股异常下跌，华尔街大佬们正忙着抄底中概股。\n“女版巴菲特”持续加仓百度\n被称为“女版巴菲特”的凯瑟琳·伍德一直保持着对中概股的高度关注。近期，在部分中概股股价大幅下降之际，凯瑟琳·伍德却在悄悄加仓。\n与巴菲特不同，凯瑟琳·伍德专注于前沿科技领域。目前，凯瑟琳·伍德一手掌管的ARK产品中有五个主动基金：ARKK（创新ETF）、ARKQ（自主技术和机器人ETF）、ARKW（下一代互联网ETF）、ARKG（基因革命ETF）、ARKF（金融科技创新ETF）。\n百度似乎是凯瑟琳·伍德眼中另一个特斯拉。去年12月，ARKK首次建仓百度，之后连续分批加仓。到了4月6日，ARKK的百度持仓量飙升到了351.5万股。与此同时，ARK的另外一支基金ARKW也开始购入百度股票。此后，旗下三大基金ARKK、ARKQ及ARKW均拥有百度仓位。\n截至当地时间4月6日，ARK旗下3只基金共持有约484.5万股百度，总市值近10.77亿美元。\n凯瑟琳·伍德看中的是百度在自动驾驶方面的潜力和入局造车后的巨大想象空间。今年1月，百度宣布正式组建一家智能汽车公司，以整车制造商的身份进军汽车行业，新组建的百度汽车公司将面向乘用车市场，着眼于智能汽车的设计研发、生产制造、销售服务全产业链。\n在百度入局造车后，公司股价一路攀升，最高涨至339.91美元的高位。但在刚刚过去的3月，受美国监管层宣布通过《外国公司问责法案》最终修正案以及Archegos基金爆仓事件等利空消息影响，百度股价大幅缩水，最低跌至204.7美元，月度累计跌幅逾23%，市值缩水数百亿美元。\n在百度股价下挫之际，ARK旗下3只基金仍在持续买入。此前，ARK产品中有4只基金均持有腾讯ADR、京东ADR、3只基金持有贝壳。在电动车概念方面，ARK还持有比亚迪ADR、小牛电动。电商方面，持有电商巨头京东、阿里巴巴等。\n芒格抄底阿里巴巴\n中概股遭遇“水逆”之际，巴菲特的老搭档芒格也在悄悄抄底。\n根据Daily Journal于4月5日提交给美国证监会的13F文件，该公司在2021年第一季度新建仓中概股阿里巴巴，在3月底的持股数为165320股，以当时的股价计算持仓市值约3750万美元。截至2021年第一季度，Daily Journal持有5只股票，总价值1.97亿美元。除阿里巴巴外，该公司还持有富国银行、美国银行、浦项制铁和美国合众银行的股份，这些持仓自2020年底以来一直没有变化。\n去年年底以来，阿里巴巴股价持续大跌。外界认为，查理·芒格建仓的时机大概率是在阿里巴巴大跌之后，抄底意图较为明显。\n安山资本有限公司（Amber Hill Capital Ltd.）资产管理总监杰克逊·黄（Jackson Wong）认为，目前阿里巴巴和腾讯仍是中国的重量级科技股，暂时还看不到有哪个公司可以撼动它们的地位。\n此前，芒格在Daily Journal的年度股东大会上表示看好中国。芒格认为，中国脱贫速度让他震惊。此外，中国的工厂自动化普及率高，中国已经迈入现代化国家行列。\n业内：中概股正在去泡沫\n今年，部分机构仓位调整引发的剧烈动荡使得中概股成为关注焦点。\n财经评论员郭施亮认为，经过了这一轮的快速下跌走势，部分中概股的估值泡沫发生了快速挤压的迹象，这或许只是市场去泡沫的一个演绎过程。\n2020年以来，中概股所面临的外部环境不确定有所增加，中概股回港股上市热度不减。中金公司认为，从长远发展角度考虑，外部压力不断增加会促使更多中概股选择回归以备不时之需，特别是考虑到较低的回归成本。\n“对于符合条件的中概股公司而言，二次上市对企业没有太多新增成本，同股同权、香港联系汇率制度也使得二次上市对美国上市主体的扰动最大限度降到最低，因此选择回归都不啻为一个‘百利而无一害’的后备方案。”中金称。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349843564,"gmtCreate":1617592901158,"gmtModify":1704700649081,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349843564","repostId":"349072987","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":349072987,"gmtCreate":1617511405149,"gmtModify":1704700142217,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","authorIdStr":"3572212908677301","name":"TigerOptions","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20925853481806adc78dcdfe25f2fe89","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572212908677301"},"themes":[],"title":"這周重要點位","htmlText":"這是之前分享<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a> 的走勢[驚訝] ：上週股市繼續上升，已經快到了13600的壓力位，讓我們繼續觀察接下來的走勢。[吃瓜] 接下來想說這周有可能發生的走勢和個人看法[思考] ： 高開突破13600，在上面震盪[白眼] 震盪慢慢往13600上升[賤笑] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌[驚嚇] 高開突破13600，在上面震盪 這走勢讓人最興奮，但不是健康的走法。[汗顏] 之前直接高開突破13270的壓力位後連續幾天下跌，所以如果是高開突破壓力位的走勢需謹慎。[警告] 去追高會有大風險。[暈] 震盪慢慢往13600上升 我個人認爲這是最健康的走勢。繼續靠近壓力位震盪，一旦突破這壓力位會形成強大的支撐點。[正經] 之後繼續向上的走勢。[想吃] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌 這走勢讓人最不安。[可憐]有人歡喜有人愁。[丟臉] 尤其是小資金或是滿倉被套牢的朋友，好不容易向上走了又下跌，心裏會很難受。[黑眼圈] 不過空倉或是喜歡做波段的朋友這走勢或許能找到機遇。[真香] 今天就說到這，資金被套住的讓我們繼續保持樂觀的心情！[安慰] 不知大家有何感想或是有什麼不同意見？[疑問] 希望大家能整理好心情，做好準備面對這周的股市！[勝利] 聲明:以上文章的言論純屬個人觀點，如果有不同意見可在以下留言討論。[暗中觀察] <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a> &lt;","listText":"這是之前分享<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a> 的走勢[驚訝] ：上週股市繼續上升，已經快到了13600的壓力位，讓我們繼續觀察接下來的走勢。[吃瓜] 接下來想說這周有可能發生的走勢和個人看法[思考] ： 高開突破13600，在上面震盪[白眼] 震盪慢慢往13600上升[賤笑] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌[驚嚇] 高開突破13600，在上面震盪 這走勢讓人最興奮，但不是健康的走法。[汗顏] 之前直接高開突破13270的壓力位後連續幾天下跌，所以如果是高開突破壓力位的走勢需謹慎。[警告] 去追高會有大風險。[暈] 震盪慢慢往13600上升 我個人認爲這是最健康的走勢。繼續靠近壓力位震盪，一旦突破這壓力位會形成強大的支撐點。[正經] 之後繼續向上的走勢。[想吃] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌 這走勢讓人最不安。[可憐]有人歡喜有人愁。[丟臉] 尤其是小資金或是滿倉被套牢的朋友，好不容易向上走了又下跌，心裏會很難受。[黑眼圈] 不過空倉或是喜歡做波段的朋友這走勢或許能找到機遇。[真香] 今天就說到這，資金被套住的讓我們繼續保持樂觀的心情！[安慰] 不知大家有何感想或是有什麼不同意見？[疑問] 希望大家能整理好心情，做好準備面對這周的股市！[勝利] 聲明:以上文章的言論純屬個人觀點，如果有不同意見可在以下留言討論。[暗中觀察] <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a> &lt;","text":"這是之前分享$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ 的走勢[驚訝] ：上週股市繼續上升，已經快到了13600的壓力位，讓我們繼續觀察接下來的走勢。[吃瓜] 接下來想說這周有可能發生的走勢和個人看法[思考] ： 高開突破13600，在上面震盪[白眼] 震盪慢慢往13600上升[賤笑] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌[驚嚇] 高開突破13600，在上面震盪 這走勢讓人最興奮，但不是健康的走法。[汗顏] 之前直接高開突破13270的壓力位後連續幾天下跌，所以如果是高開突破壓力位的走勢需謹慎。[警告] 去追高會有大風險。[暈] 震盪慢慢往13600上升 我個人認爲這是最健康的走勢。繼續靠近壓力位震盪，一旦突破這壓力位會形成強大的支撐點。[正經] 之後繼續向上的走勢。[想吃] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌 這走勢讓人最不安。[可憐]有人歡喜有人愁。[丟臉] 尤其是小資金或是滿倉被套牢的朋友，好不容易向上走了又下跌，心裏會很難受。[黑眼圈] 不過空倉或是喜歡做波段的朋友這走勢或許能找到機遇。[真香] 今天就說到這，資金被套住的讓我們繼續保持樂觀的心情！[安慰] 不知大家有何感想或是有什麼不同意見？[疑問] 希望大家能整理好心情，做好準備面對這周的股市！[勝利] 聲明:以上文章的言論純屬個人觀點，如果有不同意見可在以下留言討論。[暗中觀察] $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ <","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e84db1787d6b70c780d17b9b5c6d5e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d7f7f14a49595516c2461124cd884ff"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f495efd8ae58e5db098fa791b7efdfa5"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349072987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340217224,"gmtCreate":1617416855168,"gmtModify":1704699528772,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340217224","repostId":"340696315","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":340696315,"gmtCreate":1617392199037,"gmtModify":1704699363307,"author":{"id":"3568205323495181","authorId":"3568205323495181","authorIdStr":"3568205323495181","name":"可乐财经老林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d7ec3add0e08961ab9da67b8467ec3d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568205323495181"},"themes":[],"title":"蔚來汽車股票深度分析 利率提高 新能源汽車再次暴跌 能不能抄底 特斯拉vs蔚來vs小鵬 NIO XPEV TSLA 美股分析","htmlText":"\n \n \n  新能源汽車暴跌 能不能抄底 特斯拉 蔚來 小鵬汽車股票深度分析 特斯拉vs蔚來vs小鵬<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚來(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;美股分析蔚來芯片短缺，停產一週，你認爲是否是一個銷售差的藉口？你會抄底嗎？歡迎大家來B站/油管Youtube關注以及訂閱我的影片 (可樂財經 老林投資 CL Investments)求推廣：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20727972514030\"></a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/58341441844653\">@孟浩</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20727972514030\">@Tony特別帥</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@愛發紅包的虎妞</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3514329116425907\">@小虎AV</a>\n \n","listText":"新能源汽車暴跌 能不能抄底 特斯拉 蔚來 小鵬汽車股票深度分析 特斯拉vs蔚來vs小鵬<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚來(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;美股分析蔚來芯片短缺，停產一週，你認爲是否是一個銷售差的藉口？你會抄底嗎？歡迎大家來B站/油管Youtube關注以及訂閱我的影片 (可樂財經 老林投資 CL Investments)求推廣：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20727972514030\"></a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/58341441844653\">@孟浩</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20727972514030\">@Tony特別帥</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@愛發紅包的虎妞</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3514329116425907\">@小虎AV</a>","text":"新能源汽車暴跌 能不能抄底 特斯拉 蔚來 小鵬汽車股票深度分析 特斯拉vs蔚來vs小鵬$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$ $蔚來(NIO)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 美股分析蔚來芯片短缺，停產一週，你認爲是否是一個銷售差的藉口？你會抄底嗎？歡迎大家來B站/油管Youtube關注以及訂閱我的影片 (可樂財經 老林投資 CL Investments)求推廣：@孟浩 @Tony特別帥@愛發紅包的虎妞@小虎AV","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340696315","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"10b3c3b97a97473cb2aa68b60c5cff88","tweetId":"340696315","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/7a7d16d1vodger1254107296/0516bc175285890815792803990/AvQXAA8gCTUA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736eaf8822d00e6eb48f6c8b2b21e31b"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340872936,"gmtCreate":1617380189725,"gmtModify":1704699338175,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crm","listText":"Crm","text":"Crm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340872936","repostId":"340851184","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353222590,"gmtCreate":1616503301810,"gmtModify":1704794937223,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353222590","repostId":"1163218484","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":136741913,"gmtCreate":1622041549932,"gmtModify":1704178419116,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136741913","repostId":"2138519408","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346734439,"gmtCreate":1618111422321,"gmtModify":1704706704135,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346734439","repostId":"2126006034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349843564,"gmtCreate":1617592901158,"gmtModify":1704700649081,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349843564","repostId":"349072987","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":349072987,"gmtCreate":1617511405149,"gmtModify":1704700142217,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","authorIdStr":"3572212908677301","name":"TigerOptions","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20925853481806adc78dcdfe25f2fe89","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572212908677301"},"themes":[],"title":"這周重要點位","htmlText":"這是之前分享<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a> 的走勢[驚訝] ：上週股市繼續上升，已經快到了13600的壓力位，讓我們繼續觀察接下來的走勢。[吃瓜] 接下來想說這周有可能發生的走勢和個人看法[思考] ： 高開突破13600，在上面震盪[白眼] 震盪慢慢往13600上升[賤笑] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌[驚嚇] 高開突破13600，在上面震盪 這走勢讓人最興奮，但不是健康的走法。[汗顏] 之前直接高開突破13270的壓力位後連續幾天下跌，所以如果是高開突破壓力位的走勢需謹慎。[警告] 去追高會有大風險。[暈] 震盪慢慢往13600上升 我個人認爲這是最健康的走勢。繼續靠近壓力位震盪，一旦突破這壓力位會形成強大的支撐點。[正經] 之後繼續向上的走勢。[想吃] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌 這走勢讓人最不安。[可憐]有人歡喜有人愁。[丟臉] 尤其是小資金或是滿倉被套牢的朋友，好不容易向上走了又下跌，心裏會很難受。[黑眼圈] 不過空倉或是喜歡做波段的朋友這走勢或許能找到機遇。[真香] 今天就說到這，資金被套住的讓我們繼續保持樂觀的心情！[安慰] 不知大家有何感想或是有什麼不同意見？[疑問] 希望大家能整理好心情，做好準備面對這周的股市！[勝利] 聲明:以上文章的言論純屬個人觀點，如果有不同意見可在以下留言討論。[暗中觀察] <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a> &lt;","listText":"這是之前分享<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a> 的走勢[驚訝] ：上週股市繼續上升，已經快到了13600的壓力位，讓我們繼續觀察接下來的走勢。[吃瓜] 接下來想說這周有可能發生的走勢和個人看法[思考] ： 高開突破13600，在上面震盪[白眼] 震盪慢慢往13600上升[賤笑] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌[驚嚇] 高開突破13600，在上面震盪 這走勢讓人最興奮，但不是健康的走法。[汗顏] 之前直接高開突破13270的壓力位後連續幾天下跌，所以如果是高開突破壓力位的走勢需謹慎。[警告] 去追高會有大風險。[暈] 震盪慢慢往13600上升 我個人認爲這是最健康的走勢。繼續靠近壓力位震盪，一旦突破這壓力位會形成強大的支撐點。[正經] 之後繼續向上的走勢。[想吃] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌 這走勢讓人最不安。[可憐]有人歡喜有人愁。[丟臉] 尤其是小資金或是滿倉被套牢的朋友，好不容易向上走了又下跌，心裏會很難受。[黑眼圈] 不過空倉或是喜歡做波段的朋友這走勢或許能找到機遇。[真香] 今天就說到這，資金被套住的讓我們繼續保持樂觀的心情！[安慰] 不知大家有何感想或是有什麼不同意見？[疑問] 希望大家能整理好心情，做好準備面對這周的股市！[勝利] 聲明:以上文章的言論純屬個人觀點，如果有不同意見可在以下留言討論。[暗中觀察] <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a> &lt;","text":"這是之前分享$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ 的走勢[驚訝] ：上週股市繼續上升，已經快到了13600的壓力位，讓我們繼續觀察接下來的走勢。[吃瓜] 接下來想說這周有可能發生的走勢和個人看法[思考] ： 高開突破13600，在上面震盪[白眼] 震盪慢慢往13600上升[賤笑] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌[驚嚇] 高開突破13600，在上面震盪 這走勢讓人最興奮，但不是健康的走法。[汗顏] 之前直接高開突破13270的壓力位後連續幾天下跌，所以如果是高開突破壓力位的走勢需謹慎。[警告] 去追高會有大風險。[暈] 震盪慢慢往13600上升 我個人認爲這是最健康的走勢。繼續靠近壓力位震盪，一旦突破這壓力位會形成強大的支撐點。[正經] 之後繼續向上的走勢。[想吃] 不觸碰13600直接往12800-12900下跌 這走勢讓人最不安。[可憐]有人歡喜有人愁。[丟臉] 尤其是小資金或是滿倉被套牢的朋友，好不容易向上走了又下跌，心裏會很難受。[黑眼圈] 不過空倉或是喜歡做波段的朋友這走勢或許能找到機遇。[真香] 今天就說到這，資金被套住的讓我們繼續保持樂觀的心情！[安慰] 不知大家有何感想或是有什麼不同意見？[疑問] 希望大家能整理好心情，做好準備面對這周的股市！[勝利] 聲明:以上文章的言論純屬個人觀點，如果有不同意見可在以下留言討論。[暗中觀察] $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ <","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e84db1787d6b70c780d17b9b5c6d5e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d7f7f14a49595516c2461124cd884ff"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f495efd8ae58e5db098fa791b7efdfa5"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349072987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340217224,"gmtCreate":1617416855168,"gmtModify":1704699528772,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340217224","repostId":"340696315","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":340696315,"gmtCreate":1617392199037,"gmtModify":1704699363307,"author":{"id":"3568205323495181","authorId":"3568205323495181","authorIdStr":"3568205323495181","name":"可乐财经老林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d7ec3add0e08961ab9da67b8467ec3d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568205323495181"},"themes":[],"title":"蔚來汽車股票深度分析 利率提高 新能源汽車再次暴跌 能不能抄底 特斯拉vs蔚來vs小鵬 NIO XPEV TSLA 美股分析","htmlText":"\n \n \n  新能源汽車暴跌 能不能抄底 特斯拉 蔚來 小鵬汽車股票深度分析 特斯拉vs蔚來vs小鵬<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚來(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;美股分析蔚來芯片短缺，停產一週，你認爲是否是一個銷售差的藉口？你會抄底嗎？歡迎大家來B站/油管Youtube關注以及訂閱我的影片 (可樂財經 老林投資 CL Investments)求推廣：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20727972514030\"></a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/58341441844653\">@孟浩</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20727972514030\">@Tony特別帥</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@愛發紅包的虎妞</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3514329116425907\">@小虎AV</a>\n \n","listText":"新能源汽車暴跌 能不能抄底 特斯拉 蔚來 小鵬汽車股票深度分析 特斯拉vs蔚來vs小鵬<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚來(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;美股分析蔚來芯片短缺，停產一週，你認爲是否是一個銷售差的藉口？你會抄底嗎？歡迎大家來B站/油管Youtube關注以及訂閱我的影片 (可樂財經 老林投資 CL Investments)求推廣：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20727972514030\"></a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/58341441844653\">@孟浩</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20727972514030\">@Tony特別帥</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@愛發紅包的虎妞</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3514329116425907\">@小虎AV</a>","text":"新能源汽車暴跌 能不能抄底 特斯拉 蔚來 小鵬汽車股票深度分析 特斯拉vs蔚來vs小鵬$小鵬汽車(XPEV)$ $蔚來(NIO)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 美股分析蔚來芯片短缺，停產一週，你認爲是否是一個銷售差的藉口？你會抄底嗎？歡迎大家來B站/油管Youtube關注以及訂閱我的影片 (可樂財經 老林投資 CL Investments)求推廣：@孟浩 @Tony特別帥@愛發紅包的虎妞@小虎AV","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340696315","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"10b3c3b97a97473cb2aa68b60c5cff88","tweetId":"340696315","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/7a7d16d1vodger1254107296/0516bc175285890815792803990/AvQXAA8gCTUA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736eaf8822d00e6eb48f6c8b2b21e31b"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353222590,"gmtCreate":1616503301810,"gmtModify":1704794937223,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353222590","repostId":"1163218484","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163218484","pubTimestamp":1616403428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 16:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218484","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.Earlier ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>At current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.</li>\n <li>This article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6823bb4926a0de6a0dba52057262b1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"508\"><span>Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Value Meets Growth</b></p>\n<p>Earlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.</p>\n<p>In this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!</p>\n<p><b>A Quick Recap</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media &amp; Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb440f06e8958f52eb589475fc82cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\"><span>Source: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation</span></p>\n<p>Notable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Increasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020</li>\n <li>Taking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020</li>\n <li>Shutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021</li>\n</ul>\n<p>While Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.</p>\n<p>Sustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China&nbsp;<b>Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.</p>\n<p>In 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756074b4a628637b6f63ca0f24a2657b\" tg-width=\"471\" tg-height=\"473\"><span>Source: eMarketer.com</span></p>\n<p>While this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.</p>\n<p><b>Growth In Chinese Consumer Spending</b></p>\n<p>One major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.</p>\n<p>According to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.</p>\n<p>This trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.</p>\n<p><b>Live Streaming As A Sales Medium</b></p>\n<p>In recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to&nbsp;Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11036cc14b9aacf03ae2f6a71af8b9b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"610\"><span>Source: WalkTheChat</span></p>\n<p>Live streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.</p>\n<p>Live-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.</p>\n<p>On Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.</p>\n<p>The growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.</p>\n<p>E-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)</p>\n<p>As the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>A Familiar Retail Situation</b></p>\n<p>The current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.</p>\n<p>This makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.</p>\n<p>Live streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.</p>\n<p>Live-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.</p>\n<p>On Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.</p>\n<p>The growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.</p>\n<p>E-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)</p>\n<p>As the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>A Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago</li>\n <li>Favourable Industry Trends</li>\n <li>Strong Market Position</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>A Familiar Retail Situation</b></p>\n<p>The current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.</p>\n<p>This makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d6fb227b8c656b6877c05cda10bc05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation</span></p>\n<p><b>Favourable Industry Trends</b></p>\n<p>Apart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.</p>\n<p>1. A Rapidly Expanding Market</p>\n<p>According to&nbsp;Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.</p>\n<p>2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship</p>\n<p>According to report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!</p>\n<p>In the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/908582f41e5c35b3d4ea07100fbe40fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report</span></p>\n<p>3. Increasing Consumer Spending</p>\n<p>SEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of &gt;15% in online spending.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f4d6765dd4d059ba13ba9d859c6b48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Techpinas.com</span></p>\n<p>This growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain &amp; Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ad0cc4c3fb4bc0fe134e91d7822a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\"><span>Source: Facebook and Bain &amp; Company Report</span></p>\n<p>4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth</p>\n<p>Over the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Population Increase</li>\n <li>Rising Disposable Income</li>\n <li>Greater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices</li>\n <li>Faster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Currently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!</p>\n<p><b>A Strong Market Position</b></p>\n<p>Currently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.</p>\n<p>As shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c2674331dd7f0c33ce2cc9ae89b8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: Nativex</span></p>\n<p>While Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.</p>\n<p>In conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.</p>\n<p><b>Strong Growth Expected In Local Services</b></p>\n<p>An often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.</p>\n<p>Over the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5831a87f6cc2e73eab37213f859760\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>As of December 2020, China had&nbsp;986 million&nbsp;mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.</p>\n<p>Between 2021-2026,EMR&nbsp;expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The convenience of online food delivery</li>\n <li>Online delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay</li>\n <li>More young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook</li>\n <li>An already large internet mobile population</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.</p>\n<p><b>Innovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth</b></p>\n<p>Another lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous&nbsp;article&nbsp;to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.</p>\n<p>New Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253d16bea23dcb43969c282ffeba9710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\"><span>Source: Author's Illustrations</span></p>\n<p>According to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.</p>\n<p>Capturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth</p>\n<p>Apart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.</p>\n<p>The cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.</p>\n<p>Cloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.</p>\n<p>For Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.</p>\n<blockquote>\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a&nbsp;CNBC Interview\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Rapid Industry Growth</b></p>\n<p>In the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.</p>\n<p>According&nbsp;to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.</p>\n<p>Long term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total&nbsp;cloud spending&nbsp;was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5eaee88c10086939b21d938301d044\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\"><span>Source: Geekwire</span></p>\n<p>Internationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.</p>\n<p><b>Catalyst For Cloud Development</b></p>\n<p>Other catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>China has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to&nbsp;SCMP</li>\n <li>5G Mobile Networks</li>\n <li>“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing</li>\n <li>COVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>A High Margin &amp; Profitable Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Apart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.</p>\n<p>For example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.</p>\n<p>In the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e974af686cc46beba5dfc1c011db901\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\"><span>Source: Geekwire</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.</p>\n<p><b>Alibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth</b></p>\n<p>While industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>It has a first mover advantage</li>\n <li>It is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin</li>\n <li>There are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)</li>\n <li>China has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Elaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's&nbsp;market share&nbsp;at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.</p>\n<p><b>Cloud Is Becoming Profitable</b></p>\n<p>Since entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.</p>\n<p>After many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.</p>\n<p>Other Avenues Of Growth</p>\n<p>Apart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.</p>\n<p><b>Making Strategic Investments</b></p>\n<p>Apart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.</p>\n<p>By making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2116a75cbfc02917c115917ab6a2a\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: Advangent.com</span></p>\n<p>On the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!</p>\n<p>Considering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"</p>\n<p><b>Divesting Non-Core Businesses</b></p>\n<p>While Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.</p>\n<p>And this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media &amp; entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.</p>\n<p>With no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.</p>\n<p>Therefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.</p>\n<p><b>Ant Financial</b></p>\n<p>For many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.</p>\n<p>However, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28f81a44ee1faefde4ca73952472151\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Source: Daxue Consulting</span></p>\n<p>Apart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.</p>\n<p><b>Evaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects</b></p>\n<p>After analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..</p>\n<p>Alibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.</p>\n<p>At this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.</p>\n<p><b>Current Valuation Of Alibaba</b></p>\n<p>In my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60970c1f02270ea3d812e0603b44a197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author's calculations</span></p>\n<p><b>Assumptions &amp; Estimates Used</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>All figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated</li>\n <li>USD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7</li>\n <li>Earnings &amp; revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21</li>\n <li>Y-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media &amp; entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures</li>\n <li>Conservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by&nbsp;Bloomberg</li>\n <li>The value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation</li>\n <li>Balance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Price Multiples Used</b></p>\n<p>For Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267ced3b0a87b74cb78f90024fba03dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\"><span>Source:Analyst Prep</span></p>\n<p>With reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.</p>\n<p>Taking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail &amp; commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.</p>\n<p>For the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.</p>\n<p>The digital media &amp; entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives &amp; others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>At a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.</p>\n<p>Finally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.</p>\n<p>I will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Value And Growth Stock At Current Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415263-alibaba-value-and-growth-stock-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1163218484","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt current prices, Alibaba is now both a growth and value stock.\nThis article will assess Alibaba's attractive growth prospects and the company's valuation.\nAlibaba will be able to enjoy stable growth from their commerce business in the next decade.\nThe company's expansion into cloud computing will provide explosive growth opportunities considering the industry's growth rate and high margins.\nAlibaba will also be able to enjoy growth from its strategic investments and stake in Ant Financial.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nValue Meets Growth\nEarlier in January, I conducted a fundamental analysis on Alibaba (BABA), and explained how it the company was undervalued as a result of an overreaction due to regulatory fears.Two months on, the stock had seen a spectacular rise back to the ~$270 levels and came tumbling back to the ~$230 levels as a result of the tech sell-off. This presents another golden opportunity for investors to pick up a great business at a fantastic price.\nIn this article, I will analyse the growth opportunities of Alibaba and explain why I believe that the company will be able to sustain high growth rates of ~20%-30% over the next decade. As a result, buying Alibaba today gives investors a rare opportunity of buying both a value and growth stock!\nA Quick Recap\nAlibaba has four main business segments, namely: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media & Entertainment and Innovation Initiatives. The company also has a 33% equity stake in Ant Financial as well as a diverse portfolio of investments. The following figure shows a detailed breakdown of Alibaba's business segments and brands.\nSource: Author's Compilation From Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nNotable changes from 2019's Investor Day include:\n\nIncreasing its stake in EV maker Xpeng(NYSE:XPEV)from 3.2% to 19% in end 2020\nTaking a controlling stake of 72% in Sun Art(OTCPK:SURRY), a leading hypermarket and supermarket operator in China in October 2020\nShutting down of Xiami music streaming platform in February 2021\n\nWhile Alibaba is actively developing each of these segments, my following growth analysis will be more focused on the Core Commerce and Cloud Computing segments as they are the key revenue contributors to Alibaba (86% and 8% of FY20 revenue respectively) and experience the best growth tailwinds.\nSustainable Growth In Core CommerceE-Commerce In China Continual Growth In China's E-Commerce Industry\nAlibaba's legacy business, its Chinese e-commerce platforms will continue to benefit from the growth in consumer spending and e-commerce penetration in China. Although this segment will no longer see explosive growth, retail e-commerce sales in China is still expected to grow at a steady pace.\nIn 2021, e-commerce is forecasted to account for more than 50% of total retail sales in the country and this percentage will increase about ~2% per year thereafter. Growth in retail e-commerce sales will slowly taper down, but annual growth will remain in the 10% range after 2021.\nSource: eMarketer.com\nWhile this is not an astonishing growth rate, a ~10% yearly growth for a maturing business segment is certainly positive for the company. This also helps Alibaba generate an increasing amount of cash flow which can be deployed to develop other business segments and create new sources of income.\nGrowth In Chinese Consumer Spending\nOne major factor that can significantly affect the trajectory of the e-commerce industry is the consumer spending of Chinese citizens.\nAccording to a report by Morgan Stanley in January 2021, “Chinese consumer spending is set to more than double in ten years.” China’s private consumption was $5.6 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $12.7 trillion by 2030, the same amount which American’s currently spend. By 2030, disposable income per capita is also expected to rise proportionally, from $6,000 a year to $12,000, representing a CAGR of 7% over the next decade.\nThis trend is mainly driven by an ageing population as the age groups with the highest purchasing power retire or have families, resulting in an increase in spending. Therefore, should Alibaba be able to tap onto this emerging market by focusing on family and elderly related products such as healthcare items, it would help the company sustain high growth rates in its local e-commerce business for the next decade.\nLive Streaming As A Sales Medium\nIn recent years, live streaming as a sales medium has gained huge popularity in China. According to Coresight, life streaming sessions are real time \"broadcasting of video content by presenters such as social media influencers that model or try out products.\" Users will then be able to purchase the product by clicking an embedded link. Products advertised during live streaming are usually sold at a discounted price and there are limited quantities for sale, which explains why so many consumers tune in to hunt for bargains. The figure below shows how a typical live streaming session looks like.\nSource: WalkTheChat\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nLive streaming has brought in extraordinary results for e-commerce companies. On Singles Day 2019, top live streamer, Viya's (left) eight-hour session engaged 43.15 million buyers while Li Jiaqi's (right) six-hour live stream drew over 36.8 million viewers. In total, over 100,000 brands utilised Taobao's live streaming function during Singles’ Day 2019, generating a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of ¥20 billion ($2.85 billion), which represents 7.5% of total sales on Singles Day.\nLive-streamers are quickly growing in popularity in China. Top live-streamers like Viya and Li Jiaqi are often invited to take part and feature in reality shows as well as concerts. This helps to further expand their already wide group of audiences, which in turn can fuel more growth in the life streaming segment, and an increase in GMV.\nOn Chinese social media platform Weibo(NASDAQ:WB), Li Jiaqi and Viya have amassed 29 and 17 million followers, respectively, a figure which even exceeds that of many celebrities. This reflects the ever-growing popularity of live streamers and the potential reach they have.\nThe growth in this segment will benefit Alibaba the greatest as the two most popular live streamers mentioned above live stream on Taobao. If live streaming continues to rapidly gain popularity and relevance, it could help to accelerate consumer spending which will benefit Alibaba's e-commerce business.\nE-Commerce Expansion Into South East Asia (SEA)\nAs the growth in the Chinese e-commerce market will eventually plateau out, Alibaba has stepped up its expansion into the next potential e-commerce hotbed, the SEA market. Alibaba's operations in the region are mainly through Lazada (acquired in 2016), Tokopedia (equity investment in 2017) and AliExpress. To Alibaba, SEA is an extremely attractive and viable market due to the following:\n\nA Retail Situation That Is Similar To That Of China 10 Years Ago\nFavourable Industry Trends\nStrong Market Position\n\nA Familiar Retail Situation\nThe current retail landscape in SEA is very similar to that of China which allowed Alibaba to thrive. The region has a huge population (~600m) which is very young, high mobile usage, a relatively undeveloped e-commerce industry, low income levels and a similar culture and background to China.\nThis makes it easier for Alibaba adopt and innovate from their successful Chinese business model and implement it in SEA.\nSource: Alibaba 2020 Investor Day Presentation\nFavourable Industry Trends\nApart from the SEA market resembling China ten years ago, the region is also experiencing very positive trends regarding income growth, consumer spending growth and e-commerce penetration, all of which will accelerate Alibaba’s developments in the region.\n1. A Rapidly Expanding Market\nAccording to Mashable, Southeast Asia’s internet economy hit the US$100 billion mark at the end of 2019, and e-commerce was the largest sector contributing to this figure. Out of $100 billion, e-commerce platforms made US$38 billion!\nLooking ahead, the region’s online market value is expected to rise to US$300 billion by 2025, and e-commerce will be one of the greatest benefactors of this growth.\n2. COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce User-ship\nAccording to report by Facebook and Bain & Company in August 2020, the number of digital consumers in SEA will reach 310 million by the end of 2020. This figure was originally expected to be hit in 2025 according to their 2019 study. It is likely that the emergence of COVID-19 had accelerated e-commerce adaptation in the region, condensing five years worth of growth into one!\nIn the following years, the report predicts that the number of digital consumers will continue growing at a fast pace, with a revised figure of 340 million by 2025. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this figure was also exceeded in the next year or two considering the rapid advancements in technology in the region.\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n3. Increasing Consumer Spending\nSEA countries have recorded one of the highest growths in online spending in the past years. From the chart below, we can see that SEA nations (highlighted in yellow) have been experiencing high yearly growth rates of >15% in online spending.\nSource: Techpinas.com\nThis growth is expected to remain high in the coming years with the same report by Facebook and Bain & Company predicting a 3.5x increase in online spending over 2018 amounts by 2025. (This figure was previously 3.2x in 2019). As of 2020, the average gross merchandise value (GMV) in the region is an estimated US$172 per person. This pales in comparison with China’s ~US$1400 GMV per person as calculated using figures from Alibaba’s 2020 annual report (RMB 6,589,000m GMV/ 726m Annual Active Consumers *0.15 Exchange Rate), indicating a huge runway for growth. Just by simply catching up to the average spend per consumer in China, SEA’s e-commerce GMV would increase 8x!\nSource: Facebook and Bain & Company Report\n4. Numerous Catalyst For Growth\nOver the next decade, apart from the trends mentioned, there are also numerous favourable factors which will drive this growth or provide an added boost to this developing industry. The catalysts for growth include:\n\nPopulation Increase\nRising Disposable Income\nGreater Mobile Phone Ownership — Driven by falling phone prices\nFaster Internet Speed — Improves efficiency and convenience\n\nCurrently, all of these factors are trending upwards, which is very positive news for the SEA e-commerce industry!\nA Strong Market Position\nCurrently, the two main e-commerce players in SEA are Alibaba (through Lazada and Tokopedia) as well as Sea (through Shopee). Alibaba and Sea operate in a “duopoly” in the SEA e-commerce space. Hence, Alibaba is well positioned to capture much of the growth from the booming e-commerce industry in SEA.\nAs shown in the figure below, Alibaba-owned Lazada is currently the top e-commerce application in all SEA countries except Singapore. However, Carousell is not direct competition to Lazada as the former is more of a C2C marketplace to sell secondhand items. Additionally, Lazada also gained market share in Vietnam as it was ranked 2nd behind Shopee in 2019.\nSource: Nativex\nWhile Alibaba's current market position remains superior, Sea-owned Shopee is providing Alibaba with extremely strong competition in the region and Lazada will need to actively improve its services and offerings to maintain its market position.\nIn conclusion, SEA is a huge growth opportunity for Alibaba’s e-commerce business due to a familiar retail situation, rapidly increasing income levels, rising consumer spending and a more widespread adoption of e-commerce. Being a market leader will also allow Alibaba to benefit the most from the growth of this market.\nStrong Growth Expected In Local Services\nAn often overlooked part of Alibaba's core commerce business are its local services which mainly consists of Alibaba's online-to-offline (O2O) food delivery service. This is another industry in China which is experiencing a secular increase in penetration and adoption rate.\nOver the past five years, the number of online food delivery users have quadrupled, although it saw a slight drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike most countries whereby lockdowns in 2020 caused a spike in food delivery users, strict pandemic prevention rules in China resulted in a temporary drop in food delivery users as delivery drivers were unable to enter certain residential areas. Following the peak of the pandemic, food delivery usage quickly rose back to 2019 levels. With low rates of infection within the country, it is likely that food delivery services will continue to gain steam and increase in usage in the following years.\nSource: Statista\nAs of December 2020, China had 986 million mobile internet users. This means that the O2O food delivery penetration rate is still below 50%, implying a large runway for growth in this industry.\nBetween 2021-2026,EMR expects the Chinese online food delivery market to grow at an astonishing CAGR of 112%. There are many tailwinds that will fuel this growth, namely:\n\nThe convenience of online food delivery\nOnline delivery is already integrated into everyday apps like WeChat and Alipay\nMore young people do not have the time and/or ability to cook\nAn already large internet mobile population\n\nIf the online food delivery industry can achieve anything near of the predicted growth rate, Alibaba’s local delivery service will deeply benefit and become an important driver of revenue growth. Furthermore, the company also aims to widen the delivery services it provides to beyond food, which would provide more growth opportunities.\nInnovations In New Retail Could Spur Growth\nAnother lesser-known part of Alibaba's commerce business is New Retail, where the company aims to combine the online and offline shopping experience. Alibaba's expansion into new retail includes departmental store chain Intime and supermarket Hema. You can refer to my previous article to learn more about Alibaba's new retail.\nNew Retail is currently Alibaba's fastest growing commerce segment, contributing approximately 20% of commerce revenue. As Alibaba expands its new retail segment to include more brick and mortar businesses (e.g., acquiring a controlling stake in hypermarket Sun Art in 2020 where it plans to push more new retail strategies), this segment will continue to be a strong revenue driver for the company.\nSource: Author's Illustrations\nAccording to Jack Ma, the transition to new retail will take a total of 12 years. As of today, we are only five years in. Given the positive results showed in the early stages, I believe that new retail will be able to establish Alibaba's presence and leadership in both online and offline retail, effectively increasing its total addressable market and future revenues.\nCapturing The Cloud Industry's Rapid Growth\nApart from the numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the commerce sector, Alibaba's cloud computing business will likely be the segment that poses huge growth figures.\nThe cloud computing market is a rising industry in China as cloud services is part of the nation's drive to upgrade its economy by incorporating a range of new technologies such as big data and AI. This is reflective in the “Made In China 2025” Plan which places a key emphasis on IT development and independence.\nCloud Services in China are considered “a few years” behind the US in adaptation and development, with China cloud market share being13.7%of global cloud demand, less than would be expected for a market of its size.\nFor Alibaba, cloud computing is now their main business focus after commerce as they believe in the prospects and profitability of the industry.\n\n I think cloud will be the main business of Alibaba in the future”, reflecting the direction that Alibaba is pivoting its business to. \n\n\n -- Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a CNBC Interview\n\nRapid Industry Growth\nIn the past five years, Alibaba’s cloud segment revenue has grown at an astonishing CAGR of 99%. As China’s cloud industry is still at a developing phase, we can continue to expect strong growth from both the company and industry.\nAccording to a white paper by the Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, it predicts that China’s domestic cloud industry will exceed 300 billion yuan by 2023 (up from 96 billion in 2018) and over “60% of the country’s businesses and government agencies will rely on cloud computing as an integral part of their daily operations”.\nLong term wise, China’s cloud industry still has a very long runway to develop. In 2019, China’s total cloud spending was only 8.4% of the US, but its GDP was 67% of the US and growing at a quicker pace. As China catches up with the US in cloud development and usage rates, they will likely experience strong, secular growth in its cloud industry minimally over the next decade.\nSource: Geekwire\nInternationally, Alibaba Cloud is also slowly gaining market share and an expansion into overseas markets especially South East Asia could be very beneficial for the company’s cloud growth.\nCatalyst For Cloud Development\nOther catalysts for the growth of cloud computing in China include:\n\nChina has the largest internet population in the world — \"generating a huge amount of data that needs to be stored securely and analysed for insights in a cost-effective manner\", according to SCMP\n5G Mobile Networks\n“Internet Plus” Strategy introduced in 2015 which seeks to integrate the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and IoT applications to modernise industries and manufacturing\nCOVID-19 has accelerated the move towards cloud adaptation\n\nA High Margin & Profitable Business Model\nApart from high growth rates, success in the cloud business can profoundly enhance Alibaba's bottom line due to its high margins.\nFor example, cloud accounts for only 1/9th of Amazon's revenue, yet it contributes 60% of operating profits, reflecting the profitability in this business.\nIn the past years, operating margins for the cloud segment of market leaders such as AWS has hovered around the high twenties. As of 4Q20, AWS' operating margin improved to ~30% and it is expected to continue rising to 35% within the next two years.\nSource: Geekwire\nTherefore, development of cloud services can both provide strong revenue growth as well as a reversal of Alibaba's falling operating margins. Revenue growth and margin expansion is an extremely ideal situation for shareholders since this will result in a greater rise in net income.\nAlibaba Is Well Positioned To Capture This Growth\nWhile industry growth is positive news, a high growth industry will inevitably attract multiple players, resulting in stiff competition. However, I believe that Alibaba will be able to stand out from the competition as:\n\nIt has a first mover advantage\nIt is the current cloud market leader in China by a huge margin\nThere are only two main competitors — Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)\nChina has a more developed IT Infrastructure than the US, hence less money is required to redevelop decade old infrastructure and replace it with the networks required for cloud computing\n\nElaborating on points 2 and 3, as of 2Q20, Alibaba Cloud has the bulk of China's market share at 40%, while its closest rivals Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud have about 15% each. Even as competitors develop aggressively, Alibaba still remains the market leader by a huge margin, reflecting its superiority over competitors.\nCloud Is Becoming Profitable\nSince entering the cloud industry in 2009, Alibaba's cloud business has always been unprofitable as the company splashed the cash to develop high quality infrastructure and attract customers. Similarly for Amazon, AWS took over 10 years to become profitable.\nAfter many years of draining the company's operating cash flows, Alibaba's cloud segment is finally showing signs of profitability as the company reported its first positive EBITA in 4Q20. Alibaba believes that full year profitability will be possible within the next fiscal year or two.\nOther Avenues Of Growth\nApart from strong growth in commerce and cloud, the following avenues will also help the company to increase income in the long run.\nMaking Strategic Investments\nApart from its core businesses, Alibaba has a portfolio of equity stakes in multiple companies. I will categorise these investments into two broad groups: Investments into \"complementary\" businesses and investments into unrelated growth sectors.\nBy making investments in related businesses, Alibaba can reduce competition and broaden its reach, thereby benefiting its current core businesses. For example, Alibaba acquired Kaola, a cross-border e-commerce platform in September 2019 and integrated it into Tmall, effectively consolidating the industry. In 2019, Alibaba's Tmall had 25% of the cross border e-commerce market while Kaola had 27.5% of the market. With the acquisition, Alibaba will now be the outright market leader in this e-commerce segment.\nSource: Advangent.com\nOn the other hand, Alibaba's equity stake in rather \"unrelated\" businesses in a large prospective market allows the company to tap on the large growth potential of a new industry which it may not necessarily have the expertise to directly compete in. For example, Alibaba entered the lucrative EV market with a 14% equity stake in Xpeng. Assuming Xpeng can thrive in this industry and emerge as a top producer within the next decade, the company could be worth ~US$150 billion, which is the current market capitalisation of the world's largest automaker Volkswagen. If this theoretical valuation is achieved, Alibaba's stake would be worth US$20 billion!\nConsidering that Alibaba is a cash rich company, small investments in attractive growth companies will not put a huge dent in the company's financials. On the flip side, if the investment plays out well, Alibaba could see huge returns on their investments. As Mohnish Pabrai always says, \"Heads I Win, Tails I Don't Lose Much!\"\nDivesting Non-Core Businesses\nWhile Alibaba continually expands its network of businesses and investments, is important to understand that not all ventures will succeed. For those that still remain in a poor position after many years of capital injection and developments, sometimes the best solution is to cut it off.\nAnd this is what Alibaba does. Take Xiami as an example. Xiami was acquired in 2013 under Alibaba's digital media & entertainment business to compete in the lucrative music streaming industry which was then dominated by Tencent. Despite its efforts of aggressively developing and promoting Xiami, Xiami was unable to substantially grow its user-base and has always been a loss-making business. As of January 2021, Xiami only commanded \"2 per cent of China's music streaming market, behind KuGou Music, QQ Music, KuWo, and NetEase Cloud Music\" asreportedby TalkingData. As a result, Alibaba announced that it would shut down its music streaming platform within the next month.\nWith no viable route to profitability and a poor market position in a very competitive industry, I believe that this was a smart business decision as it allows the company to cut losses, minimise operating expenses and focus on other more successful ventures.\nTherefore, Alibaba has shown that it is not only capable at making shrewd investments, it also knows when to cut its losses and move on when necessary.\nAnt Financial\nFor many investors, Alibaba's foray into the fin-tech industry via Ant Financial would be a major catalyst for growth for the company. However, I am not going to include this as a main growth driver as Ant's restructuring is still incomplete and we do not know the full impact that regulations will have on Ant. Therefore, until we have a clearer picture on Ant's updated structure, business model and strategy, I will not be able to provide a concise growth forecast for this segment.\nHowever, as Ant's Alipay is the leading mobile payment platform in China along with WeChat pay, Ant will certainly benefit from the rise in Chinese consumer spending over the next decade as well as the increasing adaptation of mobile payment methods in more rural parts of the country.\nSource: Daxue Consulting\nApart from payments, Ant Financial also provides services which covers every aspect of a consumer's financial journey, from insurance to loans to investments. These services will also benefit from the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class. If the all-in-one Alipay app is able to induce consumer stickiness to its products, or further \"trap\" consumers within Alibaba's wide range of services, Ant could further improve Alibaba's already strong network effect and help the company increase revenue by up-selling or cross-selling consumers.\nEvaluation Of Alibaba's Growth Prospects\nAfter analysing Alibaba's growth prospects in its various segments, I believe that the cloud computing business will be Alibaba's main driver of growth for the next decade. This segment should be able to increase earnings at a 30-40% growth rate for the next five years considering that it will turn profitable soon and can help in expanding the company's margins..\nAlibaba's legacy Chinese e-commerce business will likely see declining growth rates as the industry is maturing, but its expansion into SEA, local services and new retail will provide a boost to this business segment. These three businesses are all still in their infancy and in an industry, which is yearning to take off. Strong market positions in these industries will ensure that Alibaba can capture a large proportion of this growth. As a result, I believe that Alibaba's core commerce segment as a whole can easily achieve growth rates of 15%-25% in the next five years.\nAt this point, the success of Alibaba's strategic investments and equity stake in Ant Financial is still difficult to quantify. However, they are currently heading in the right direction and the management has demonstrated its ability to extract a lot of value from their investments, be it by complementing current businesses or through an increase in valuation. Therefore, I am optimistic that Alibaba's portfolio of investments (including Ant) will provide tailwinds for the company's growth.\nCurrent Valuation Of Alibaba\nIn my previousarticle, I did a Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach for Alibaba. For this valuation, I will also be using a SOTP valuation, but adopting an even more conservative approach to protect myself from what seems to be an inevitable market downturn.\nSource: Author's calculations\nAssumptions & Estimates Used\n\nAll figures are in RMB unless otherwise stated\nUSD to RMB exchange rate used is 1:7\nEarnings & revenue estimates are for Fiscal Year 2021 which ends on 31/3/21\nY-o-y growth estimates are 20% for core commerce, 50% for cloud computing, 3% for digital media & entertainment and 0% for innovation initiatives. These estimates are slightly lower than the released 9M21 vs 9M20 figures\nConservatively, Ant Financial is now valued at US$108 billion, according to the latest valuation by Bloomberg\nThe value of \"Other Strategic Investments\" is adapted from Alibaba's 2020 Investor Day presentation\nBalance sheet information is from the company's latest 10-Q\n\nPrice Multiples Used\nFor Alibaba's core commerce business, the two multiples used are very conservative as Alibaba's historical average P/E is around 39. The reason for using a more conservative P/E is very simple. Alibaba's core commerce business will no longer experience exponential growth in the years ahead, therefore a few years from now, the core commerce business will unlikely command such a high multiple.\nSource:Analyst Prep\nWith reference to an industry life cycle model, I will estimate Alibaba's core commerce business to be somewhere between the \"growth\" and \"shake-out\" stage now.\nTaking the 10-year P/E average of other e-commerce companies (JD(NASDAQ:JD), eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)and Rakuten(OTCPK:RKUNY)), I arrive to a multiple of 25. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has been excluded as I personally think that it's extremely high P/E is unsustainable in the long run. A P/E of 25 is realistic as large commerce chains which are currently in a mature industry (Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Target(NYSE:TGT), Costco(NASDAQ:COST)) trade at a 10-year average P/E of ~20. Once e-commerce reaches \"mature\" stage, it should trade on a similar multiple to its retail & commerce peers. However, due to its much higher margins, I believe that Alibaba will trade at a slight premium, therefore a base case multiple of 25 is appropriate.\nFor the cloud computing industry, cloud businesses are currently trading at Price to Revenue multiples between 10x to 15x. In 2019, AWS traded at a multiple of ~12 hence this will be my base case estimate.\nThe digital media & entertainment business's multiple is derived from the 10-year average of Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and iQiyi(NASDAQ:IQ)while innovation initiatives & others takes the multiple of the US IT sector.\nConclusion\nAt a price below $239, Alibaba is trading at a valuation even lower than its bear case, and this valuation model by itself is already extremely conservative. Therefore, investing in Alibaba today not only comes with spectacular growth opportunities, but also an equally amazing margin of safety. Should prices continue to fall from here, I will not hesitate to continue adding to my Alibaba positions.\nFinally, as I was writing this article, there were rumours that the Chinese government had asked Alibaba to dispose their media assets as they were concerned about Alibaba's ability to sway public sentiment. In the meantime, the key assets in concern are the South China Morning Post and several other news and media outlets. This may not necessarily be bad for the company as divestment of these assets would allow them to shore up cash to meet the regulatory requirements for Ant Financial. Such a move could also elevate the company's favourability with the government. Overall, insiders have stated that it is unlikely that Alibaba will need to divest its entertainment business, hence this regulatory concern seems to be more focused on Alibaba's media assets and will not affect the company's commerce, cloud or entertainment business, which are much more important to the company.\nI will not go on with all the risks associated with this investment as I have already assessed them in my previous article. As an ending remark, I will note that investing in Alibaba is indeed riskier due to the regulatory concerns both in US and China. However, if you are able to stomach the added risk and volatility, Alibaba currently gives you a very good opportunity to capitalise on the growth of China and comes at a price with a huge margin of safety baked in to protect investors from the potential downside risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111471022,"gmtCreate":1622695961666,"gmtModify":1704189127759,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/111471022","repostId":"1184714420","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342594651,"gmtCreate":1618229660573,"gmtModify":1704707785299,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342594651","repostId":"1163218788","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163218788","pubTimestamp":1618211801,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163218788?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-12 15:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"182亿罚款背后的沉默和喧嚣、爱护和警醒","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163218788","media":"IT时报","summary":"从今以后，互联网巨头得三思而后行，而且还必须“讲武德”。","content":"<p>文/郝俊慧 王昕 孙妍</p><p><b>30秒快读</b></p><p>182.28亿元，我国历史上金额最高的反垄断罚单。但对阿里来说，也许算不上意外。同样，资本市场似乎也没有感到意外，4月12日港股开盘，阿里开盘大涨5%。</p><p>正当所有人将目光都集中在电商平台时，直播带货中出现的“脱钩式二选一”非常值得关注的“第二落点”。</p><p>你永远不会知道明天和意外哪个会先来。</p><p>2015年云栖大会上，马云曾表示，BAT不是垄断，是暂时领先。</p><p>2021年4月10日，阿里收到我国历史上金额最高的反垄断罚单——182.28亿元。罚单由国家市场监管总局开出，但对阿里来说，也许算不上意外。</p><p>4个月之前，2020年12月14日，阿里收到过一张50万元的反垄断罚单，做出处罚决定的依然是国家市场监管总局，事由是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>投资有限公司收购银泰商业(集团)有限公司股权。</p><p>1907年，当时任美国总统西奥多·罗斯福为洛克菲勒财团开出全球经济史上最著名的2924万美元（购买力比约30:1）反垄断罚款时，洛克菲勒并不服气。</p><p>100多年后，阿里的态度很谦卑，发布《致客户和公众的一封信》，表示“诚恳接受，坚决服从”，并称“将以此为新的起点，直面问题，锐意革新。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54be1562cd672f5ace86559f605d5cc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"2144\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a></p><p>对于这张罚单，外界评价最多的是，阿里收获了“确定性”，靴子落地，终于可以重装上阵了。那么其他人呢？</p><p>那些曾经承受“二选一”之苦的对手和商家如释重负了吗？那些曾经对消费者和对手举起“垄断之刀”的超级平台，会明白任何滥用数据、技术和资本优势的行为，都将不再是法外之地吗？</p><p>“该案是我国平台经济领域第一起重大典型的垄断案件，标志着平台经济领域反垄断执法进入了新阶段，释放了清晰的政策信号，即国家在鼓励和促进平台经济发展的同时，强化反垄断监管，有效预防和制止平台企业损害竞争、创新和消费者利益的行为，规范和引导平台经济持续健康创新发展。”中国政法大学教授时建中对此评论称。</p><p><b>01</b>&nbsp;<b>爱护</b></p><p>2020年12月18日，阿里在一封严正声明中表示，“有关外媒报道中央联合调查组进驻阿里巴巴一事，纯属谣言，我们将追究造谣者的责任。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341e776cdca6ced59fc22a61e3ac5b5\" tg-width=\"442\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：微博</p><p>一周后，12月24日，国家市场监管总局公告称，已根据举报依法对阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司实施“二选一”等涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。于是，阿里的回应变成了，“将积极配合监管部门调查。目前公司业务一切正常。”</p><p>2021年4月10日，尘埃落定。国家市场监管总局根据《反垄断法》第四十七条、第四十九条规定，综合考虑阿里巴巴集团违法行为的性质、程度和持续时间等因素，市场监管总局对阿里罚款182.28亿元。</p><p>这张罚单到底有多严厉？</p><p>参照2015年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>被国家发改委处罚60.88亿元，依据是其2013年在华收入的8%。</p><p>根据反垄断法第四十七条，经营者违反本法规定，滥用市场支配地位的，由反垄断执法机构责令停止违法行为，没收违法所得，并处上一年度销售额1%以上10%以下的罚款。</p><p>这次阿里被处以2019年中国境内营收4557.12亿元的4%，为182.28亿元。</p><p>高通8%，阿里4%。有分析人士认为，这恰恰说明虽然乍一看182.28亿是个天文数字，但监管部门实际上却在依法裁量的基础上体现出了审慎和克制。</p><p>人民日报称：“回顾整个案件，无论是违法行为的认定，还是罚款金额的确定，都体现了依法治国的基本要求，于法有据、于理应当。”</p><p>4月10日正值周六，负面消息对资本市场的影响也得到消减。</p><p>子弹可以在空中飞一会儿。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8db61c6ba55e960ced8eaf5cc7ac66f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：《让子弹飞》</p><p>事实上，阿里巴巴最近在港股和美股的表现均还算稳定。早在去年年底，阿里股价就已对国家市场监管总局的调查作出了回应，相较2020年最高收盘价309.4港元，阿里港股股价在年末下跌了25%。2021年，阿里港股经历了一波涨势后又回到了220港元左右的低点。</p><p>阿里巴巴美股走势与港股类似，目前市值6000亿美元左右，与去年下半年股价最高点相比下跌也超过20%。</p><p>利空也确实出尽。</p><p>“发达国家对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等平台经济巨头的反垄断监管，并没有让这些企业失去核心竞争力，反而促使其积极做强核心业务，实现长远健康发展。”人民日报发表评论称，规范是为了更好发展，“扯袖子”也是一种爱护。</p><p>4月12日港股开盘，阿里开盘大涨5%。</p><p>目前，阿里巴巴美股市值排在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>之后，但仍稳居全球市值前十大的公司。</p><p><b>02</b>&nbsp;<b>沉默</b></p><p>有趣的是，处罚消息一出，最沉默的恰恰是曾经与阿里杠得最凶的。</p><p>2015年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>起诉阿里“二选一”，要求阿里停止“二选一”，并向其索赔10亿，官司持续了数年，后来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>也递交申请，请求以第三人身份加入诉讼。大有“三英战吕布”之势。</p><p>2019年，弱势的商家也揭竿而起，向平台发起挑战。在本报的《格兰仕炮轰天猫“四大错”，店大欺客20万备货化为泡影》报提到，“2019年初，天猫要求格兰仕‘二选一’，格兰仕拒绝下架其他网络零售平台后，格兰仕在天猫平台的六大核心门店遭遇重创，造成超20万产品库存积压，单店销售额同比最高下滑89%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，格兰仕在京东旗舰店销量整体上涨超过30%，6·18当天销售额超过100%。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6730972676f8afe389488c653cf3f06\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：格兰仕</p><p>4月11日，《IT时报》记者采访了多家互联网公司，所有公司均三缄其口，选择沉默，即便是此前曾经强烈抨击过对手“二选一”的公司。</p><p>一位多年参与双11的品牌商家表示，从去年开始，“二选一”的要求就没那么严格了，各平台似乎都放松了要求。</p><p>与此相对应，对平台经济的“反垄断”监管风暴在2020年末逐渐升级。</p><p>2020年12月11日，中央政治局会议首提要“强化反垄断和防止资本无序扩张”，并在之后的中央经济会议以及全国人民代表大会政府工作报告中一再重申。</p><p>有时候，浅水是喧哗的，深水才是沉默的。</p><p><b>03</b>&nbsp;<b>喧嚣</b></p><p>除了电商，互联网不同领域的领头羊也都或多或少被诟病涉嫌“垄断”。</p><p>此次阿里巴巴因“二选一”被处罚涉及“限定交易”，根据《国务院反垄断委员会关于相关市场界定的指南》（以下简称《指南》），垄断行为包括：不公平价格交易、低于成本销售、拒绝交易、限定交易、搭售或附加不合理交易条件、差别待遇，外卖平台、搜索引擎、在线旅游等领域出现的“大数据杀熟”“搭售”“高额抽佣”“补贴后提价”等常见现象，都被消费者质疑是否属于“垄断范畴”。</p><p>于是，尖利的声音出现在电商领域之外。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WUBA\">58同城</a>网CEO姚劲波成为阿里巴巴被处罚消息传出后，第一个向对手开炮的互联网大佬。</p><p>姚劲波微博发文称，房产交易领域有更明目张胆的二选一包装成自愿，强烈呼吁国家反垄断罚款40亿（4%标准），矛头直指<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>。其晒出两张图片，一张应该是贝壳上太原房源信息，标注有“独家”，另一张则是合同，要求乙方“自愿选择仅为贝壳提供新房渠道销售服务”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c8a8c874bba186205e0be262eed3f3e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：微博</p><p>这条微博发出之后，下面的评论两极分化，叫好者有之，但也有人提出，58在收购安居客和赶集以来，房产经纪人的端口费从300元涨到了一个季度3000元，同样涉嫌“垄断”。</p><p>一位上海房地产中介透露，现在赶集网端口费一季度3000元，该价格大概维持两年了，“不过现在端口流量明显不如过去了，以前每天接咨询电话接到不想接，现在有时候一周都接不到一个电话，我们中介经理们都怀疑流量去哪儿了，但也没有确凿证据。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8921d8d4ecaa6091fedb24c5e3b37a3c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：微博</p><p>无论如何，姚劲波的发声都不应被看成一件坏事，市场竞争环境的清澈，需要各种各样的声音。</p><p>经过十余年发展，中国的互联网经济逐渐形成资本—市场—算法的成功逻辑，“赢家通吃”“马太效应”扼杀了中小企业的创新之路，也让成功者和模仿者忍不住想要“复制再复制”。</p><p>无论如何，姚劲波应该不会是4月10日之后唯一一个叫板的人。</p><p>此次监管出手，是一个明确的信号，人民日报表示，“加强反垄断执法，正是以法治手段规制平台经济领域的垄断行为，给众多小公司、小网站带来良性竞争、茁壮成长的机会，使整个行业能持续创新、活力常在。”</p><p>或许，经此一役，会有更多中小企业在遭遇“不公正竞争”时，有了发声的勇气。</p><p><b>04</b>&nbsp;<b>警醒</b></p><p>网经社电子商务研究中心特约研究员、浙江传媒学院互联网与社会研究院院长方兴东说：“国家市监总局对阿里巴巴集团《处罚决定书》中有着不少细节，尤其对相关市场的界定，简单有力，代表着中国互联网反垄断执法实质性的进步，值得一读。”</p><p>4月10日，国家市场监督管理总局在发布行政处罚决定的同时，公布了《国家市场监督管理总局行政处罚决定书》（国市监处〔2021〕28号，以下简称《处罚决定书》）和《行政指导书》（国市监行指反垄〔2021〕1号），对此次处罚的调查过程、判定依据做了详细解读。</p><p>直播、短视频都是电商</p><p>相关市场界定，是垄断行为是否成立需确定的第一步。《反垄断法》第19条规定，判断经营者是否具有“支配地位”的前提条件是，在“相关市场”市场份额达到二分之一。</p><p>《处罚决定书》开篇便明确，本案相关市场是“中国境内网络零售服务市场”，并从不同类别经营者、不同商品销售方式、不同商品品类等三个方面详细分析，“网络零售平台服务构成单独的相关商品市场”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/970065a89931cbd6cf922974b2d47381\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：《处罚决定书》</p><p>比如，针对B2C网络零售和C2C网络零售两种不同模式，平台都是提供网络经营场所、交易撮合、信息发布等服务，帮助平台内经营者与消费者达成交易，并无本质区别，因此属于同一类相关商品市场。</p><p>比如，无论是传统展示型的网络零售模式，还是新兴的直播、短视频等网络零售模式，平台对平台内经营者提供的均为网络经营场所、交易撮合、信息发布等服务，均可以满足消费者网络购物需求。因此也属于同一相关商品市场。</p><p>比如，网络零售商品可分为服装、电子数码、家用电器、食品、化妆品、家居用品、家装建材等细分品类，但对平台内经营者和消费者而言，网络零售平台服务内容并无本质区别。</p><p>一个细节是，《处罚决定书》提出，“当事人提出，本案相关商品市场应界定为B2C网络零售平台服务市场”，似乎侧面印证，本案源起与B2C市场有关。2015年11月，京东向国家工商行政管理总局举报阿里巴巴，指责阿里巴巴要求商家“二选一”，从此拉开双方在此话题上的拉锯战。另一个细节是，本案提及数据均起于2015年，止于2019年。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eefb0c7572fa67ae2bac50d8efd7130f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：《处罚决定书》</p><p>从以上三点分析可以看出，国家市场监督管理总局驳回了阿里巴巴将此案限定于“B2C市场”的提议，而是将淘宝直播、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>、快手等新型直播电商，天猫、京东自营等B2C模式都纳入界定范畴。</p><p>不过，《国务院反垄断委员会关于平台经济领域的反垄断指南》中对于相关市场界定的原则是“坚持个案分析”，这意味着，并非所有电商领域的反垄断案件都会参照同样的相关市场界定。</p><p><b>确定“分母”大小</b></p><p>同时，《处罚决定书》做了一个关键判定：网络零售平台服务与线下零售商业服务不属于同一相关商品市场。线下零售商业服务为经营者和消费者进行商品交易提供实体经营场所、商品陈列及相关配套等服务，与网络零售平台服务在功能上具有一定相似性，但二者不具有紧密替代关系。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb7ee4d9edd1dd10cf9f5fce7bbe4362\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：《处罚决定书》</p><p>这个判定意义在于，阿里巴巴是否在相关市场具有“市场支配地位”，计算的基数是网络零售平台市场，而不是整个社会消费品零售总额。</p><p>二者相差甚大。根据国家统计局数据，2020年全国网上零售额达11.76万亿元，同比增长10.9%，实物商品网上零售额达9.76万亿元，同比增长14.8%。但占社会消费品零售总额的比重不到1/4。</p><p>阿里巴巴最新的2021财年数据还未公布，上一年2020财年财报显示，截至2020年3月31日止的12个月里，阿里巴巴数字经济体的消费型商业业务GMV达人民币7.053万亿元，突破1万亿美元。简单计算，约占全国网上零售额的60%左右，但这个数字可能包括了阿里巴巴的海外市场收入。</p><p>根据《处罚决定书》，监管部门最终确认阿里巴巴网络零售平台商品交易额在中国境内网络零售商品交易总额近5年市场份额是：76.21%、69.96%、63.58%、61.70%、61.83%。均超过50%。</p><p><b>1/2，具有市场支配地位</b></p><p>是否具有市场支配地位，是判断垄断的第二个前提。</p><p>《处罚决定书》中的描述是，当事人（指阿里巴巴）长期占有较高市场份额，且具有很高的市场认可度和消费者黏性，平台内经营者迁移成本较高，根据《反垄断法》第十八条、第十九条的规定，本机关认定，当事人在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场具有支配地位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fdef75b4a5287920148c4347e13e3b8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：《反垄断法》</p><p>《处罚决定书》从七个方面综合判断阿里具有市场支配地位，包括市场份额超过50%、相关市场高度集中、具有雄厚的财力和先进的技术条件、其他经营者在交易上高度依赖当事人、相关市场进入难度大、在关联市场具有显著优势。</p><p>其中有几处提及的数据，对其他领域同类问题认定，有一定借鉴意义。</p><p>第一、《处罚决定书》从平台服务收入和平台商品交易额两方面统计数据入手，说明市场份额超过50%。2015-2019年，以中国境内10家主要网络零售平台合计服务收入为基数，阿里平台服务收入占比分别为86.07%、75.77%、78.51%、75.44%、71.17%。</p><p>阿里2020财年年报显示，截至2020年3月31日，阿里巴巴集团当年收入为人民币5097.11亿元。可比数据是，2019年，“老二”京东净服务收入为662亿元，包括平台及广告收入、物流和其他服务收入。“老三”拼多多2019年的营收为301.4亿元。</p><p>此外，前文提到，阿里巴巴网络零售平台商品交易额在中国境内网络零售商品交易总额中的占比，连续五年超过了50%。</p><p>第二，《处罚决定书》里从HHI指数（赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数）和CR4指数（市场集中度指数）入手，判断相关市场已经高度集中。</p><p>两个指数的具体计算公式比较复杂，但有可参考的标准，比如美国反垄断执法的重要文件《司法部和联邦贸易委员会横向合并指南》中认为，企业并购后HHI指数超过1800时，属于高度集中市场。CR4是行业前四名份额集中度指标，当它超过75%时，这个市场被认为是极高寡占型。</p><p>《处罚决定书》显示，2015—2019年，中国境内网络零售平台服务市场的HHI指数（赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数）分别为7408、6008、6375、5925、5350，CR4指数（市场集中度指数）分别为99.68、99.46、98.92、98.66、98.45。</p><p>也就是说，中国境内的网络零售平台服务市场属于集中度很高的市场，且监管方认为，阿里巴巴在其中市场份额较为稳定，长期保持较强竞争优势，其他竞争性平台对当事人的竞争约束有限。</p><p><b>“二选一”底朝天</b></p><p>通过正当市场竞争获得市场支配地位并非企业“原罪”，但如果当年的屠龙少年成了巨龙，利用垄断地位打压其他竞争对手，那么，《反垄断法》存在的意义也在于此。</p><p>此次国家市场监管总局出手，直接将业内公开秘密“二选一”调查了个底朝天。</p><p>首先，禁止核心商家在其他竞争性平台开店。调查显示，阿里巴巴根据销售增长、商品能力、用户运营、品牌力、服务能力、合规经营等因素将平台内经营者由高到低划分为SSKA、SKA、KA、核腰、腰部、长尾、底部等七个层次。其中KA及以上经营者（以下统称为核心商家）通过签订独家框架协议或者被口头要求只能“二选一”，不得开店，或者只能开非旗舰店、控制其他竞争性平台专卖专营店数量、下架全部商品、不予发货、限制库存等。</p><p>一位在天猫、京东、拼多多都有店铺的商家告诉《IT时报》记者，作为品牌的一级经销商，他们被明确要求，不得在拼多多上开“旗舰店”，而只能叫“**品牌店”，而且价格不得低于其他两个电商平台，“所以你看，很多大品牌在拼多多上都没有旗舰店。”而且，这些要求都是口头通知，没有写在合同里。</p><p>当年拼多多攻势最猛的时候，他们为了在拼多多上开店，另行注册了一个公司，并且挑选了一些差异化的商品，在拼多多上做底价销售，但这些商品在其他平台上都不能销售。</p><p>其次，禁止商家参加其他平台的促销活动。一是在协议中直接规定不得参加其他竞争性平台促销活动；二是当事人均通过口头明确要求、发送核心商家在其他竞争性平台促销页面截屏等明示或暗示方式，要求核心商家不得参加其他竞争性平台的促销活动。</p><p>早在2013年，《IT时报》便接到供应商爆料，已经接到天猫口头电话通知，警告他们若参加京东618促销，以后将不能参加淘宝双十一的活动。此后，随着双11和618的规模越来越大，二选一的话题每年至少出现两次。</p><p>第三，用奖惩措施保障“二选一”要求实施。当事人一方面通过流量支持等激励性措施促使平台内经营者执行“二选一”要求，另一方面对不执行相关要求的平台内经营者实施处罚，包括减少促销活动资源支持、取消参加促销活动资格、搜索降权、取消在平台上的其他重大权益等。</p><p>调查透露，阿里巴巴有个“灰名单”，如果经营者未执行“二选一”要求，就会被列入“灰名单”，进而遭到处罚，只有“服软”并重新审核通过后，方能恢复参加“聚划算”“天天特卖”等日常促销活动的报名资格。</p><p>2019年618前夕，格兰仕发布了一份“关于格兰仕在天猫平台出现搜索异常的声明”，称拜访拼多多后，格兰仕在天猫平台的搜索端陆续出现异常，因为格兰仕不愿“退出拼多多”，被屏蔽了格兰仕在淘宝、聚划算、淘抢购上的资源，天猫上六家核心店铺销售较去年同期均大幅下滑。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da7e020c9b994f70dcfbf484265dc138\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：格兰仕</p><p>2019年10月28日，格兰仕向广州知识产权法院就天猫涉嫌滥用市场支配地位等相关事宜提起诉讼，并于11月4日得到受理。而天猫于2019年10月25日将猫宁店铺的格兰仕产品全部下架。</p><p>阿里集团市场公关委员会主席王帅曾回应“二选一”现象，表示这本来就是正常的市场行为，也是最朴素的商业规则，不愿配合某些企业进行炒作。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e42496c0158c50566b4cacceeb8738f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：网络</p><p>然而，没有永远的对手，只有永远的利益。曾经要对簿公堂的格兰仕和阿里巴巴选择重归于好。2020年6月29日，双方签订合作协议，将在产品创新、新品研发、IoT（物联网）技术应用等领域开展全方位数字化合作。</p><p>但此案也作为《电子商务法》颁布实施以来，第一个公开站出来声明遭遇电商行业“2选1”现象的案例，在电商发展史上留下重要一笔。</p><p><b>“脱钩式二选一”</b></p><p>阿里之后，下一个是谁？有媒体押在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>上，并引用知情人士信源称，马化腾在3月拜访了市场监管总局，讨论公司合规事宜。此外，美团、滴滴、京东、拼多多、字节跳动等巨头的名字都频繁被提及。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39fa2d64408a96242be66519dc2b8867\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">图源：网络</p><p>《IT时报》认为，“脱钩式二选一”也值得警惕。</p><p>近年来，互联网“脱钩”成为常态。</p><p>抖音、淘宝链接至今不能在微信分享，而《IT时报》记者此前调查发现，只要在抖音多闪里发送微信链接，就会被抖音禁止发言。支付平台彼此之间也屏蔽，美团一度不能使用支付宝，淘宝不能使用微信支付。</p><p>在上述品牌商家看来，平台利用已有优势限制商家已成为常态，尽管直播电商这两年很火，但他们迟迟没有进入，“要重新在抖音小店里上架商品，我们已有优势没办法复用。”</p><p>2020年10月9日起，抖音规定，第三方来源的商品将不再支持进入直播间购物车，抖音小店平台来源商品不受影响。也就是说，直播时正在卖的商品只能在抖音小店上架。尽管非直播时段的商品橱窗可以跳至外链，但这种传统电商展示的方式在短视频平台上，并非主流。</p><p>此前，《IT时报》也曾报道，在淘宝系之外的平台带货的网红，只要货品链接跳转到淘宝的商品交易，都会被淘宝收取额外一笔6%的“专项服务费”。</p><p>在商家看来，这也是变相的“二选一”。</p><p>这些与“二选一”类似的商业壁垒，不但有碍市场竞争的嫌疑，而且也切实地影响到消费者的惯常使用习惯和体验。</p><p>方兴东认为，4%的处罚开创了历史，可以让“滥用垄断”的巨头感受到真正肉痛，对其他互联网巨头们无疑是有警示作用的。</p><p>网经社电子商务研究中心特约研究员、浙江垦丁律师事务所褚霞律师则提醒，在处罚决定书发布同时，国家市场监督管理总局还发布了《国家市场监督管理总局行政指导书》（国市监行指反垄〔2021〕1号），值得其他可能在相关市场具有市场支配地位的互联网企业引起重视。</p><p>这意味着，在各自领域内占据领头羊地位的互联网平台，都必须将“反垄断合规”作为今后重要的绩效指挥棒。</p><p>总之，从今以后，互联网巨头得三思而后行，而且还必须“讲武德”。</p>","source":"lsy1568283298901","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>182亿罚款背后的沉默和喧嚣、爱护和警醒</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n182亿罚款背后的沉默和喧嚣、爱护和警醒\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 15:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.it-times.com.cn/a/hulianwang/2021/0412/33903.html><strong>IT时报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文/郝俊慧 王昕 孙妍30秒快读182.28亿元，我国历史上金额最高的反垄断罚单。但对阿里来说，也许算不上意外。同样，资本市场似乎也没有感到意外，4月12日港股开盘，阿里开盘大涨5%。正当所有人将目光都集中在电商平台时，直播带货中出现的“脱钩式二选一”非常值得关注的“第二落点”。你永远不会知道明天和意外哪个会先来。2015年云栖大会上，马云曾表示，BAT不是垄断，是暂时领先。2021年4月10日，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.it-times.com.cn/a/hulianwang/2021/0412/33903.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b6f94dccb98a12151a85402ac9dd4e","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"http://www.it-times.com.cn/a/hulianwang/2021/0412/33903.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163218788","content_text":"文/郝俊慧 王昕 孙妍30秒快读182.28亿元，我国历史上金额最高的反垄断罚单。但对阿里来说，也许算不上意外。同样，资本市场似乎也没有感到意外，4月12日港股开盘，阿里开盘大涨5%。正当所有人将目光都集中在电商平台时，直播带货中出现的“脱钩式二选一”非常值得关注的“第二落点”。你永远不会知道明天和意外哪个会先来。2015年云栖大会上，马云曾表示，BAT不是垄断，是暂时领先。2021年4月10日，阿里收到我国历史上金额最高的反垄断罚单——182.28亿元。罚单由国家市场监管总局开出，但对阿里来说，也许算不上意外。4个月之前，2020年12月14日，阿里收到过一张50万元的反垄断罚单，做出处罚决定的依然是国家市场监管总局，事由是阿里巴巴投资有限公司收购银泰商业(集团)有限公司股权。1907年，当时任美国总统西奥多·罗斯福为洛克菲勒财团开出全球经济史上最著名的2924万美元（购买力比约30:1）反垄断罚款时，洛克菲勒并不服气。100多年后，阿里的态度很谦卑，发布《致客户和公众的一封信》，表示“诚恳接受，坚决服从”，并称“将以此为新的起点，直面问题，锐意革新。”图源：微博对于这张罚单，外界评价最多的是，阿里收获了“确定性”，靴子落地，终于可以重装上阵了。那么其他人呢？那些曾经承受“二选一”之苦的对手和商家如释重负了吗？那些曾经对消费者和对手举起“垄断之刀”的超级平台，会明白任何滥用数据、技术和资本优势的行为，都将不再是法外之地吗？“该案是我国平台经济领域第一起重大典型的垄断案件，标志着平台经济领域反垄断执法进入了新阶段，释放了清晰的政策信号，即国家在鼓励和促进平台经济发展的同时，强化反垄断监管，有效预防和制止平台企业损害竞争、创新和消费者利益的行为，规范和引导平台经济持续健康创新发展。”中国政法大学教授时建中对此评论称。01 爱护2020年12月18日，阿里在一封严正声明中表示，“有关外媒报道中央联合调查组进驻阿里巴巴一事，纯属谣言，我们将追究造谣者的责任。”图源：微博一周后，12月24日，国家市场监管总局公告称，已根据举报依法对阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司实施“二选一”等涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。于是，阿里的回应变成了，“将积极配合监管部门调查。目前公司业务一切正常。”2021年4月10日，尘埃落定。国家市场监管总局根据《反垄断法》第四十七条、第四十九条规定，综合考虑阿里巴巴集团违法行为的性质、程度和持续时间等因素，市场监管总局对阿里罚款182.28亿元。这张罚单到底有多严厉？参照2015年高通被国家发改委处罚60.88亿元，依据是其2013年在华收入的8%。根据反垄断法第四十七条，经营者违反本法规定，滥用市场支配地位的，由反垄断执法机构责令停止违法行为，没收违法所得，并处上一年度销售额1%以上10%以下的罚款。这次阿里被处以2019年中国境内营收4557.12亿元的4%，为182.28亿元。高通8%，阿里4%。有分析人士认为，这恰恰说明虽然乍一看182.28亿是个天文数字，但监管部门实际上却在依法裁量的基础上体现出了审慎和克制。人民日报称：“回顾整个案件，无论是违法行为的认定，还是罚款金额的确定，都体现了依法治国的基本要求，于法有据、于理应当。”4月10日正值周六，负面消息对资本市场的影响也得到消减。子弹可以在空中飞一会儿。图源：《让子弹飞》事实上，阿里巴巴最近在港股和美股的表现均还算稳定。早在去年年底，阿里股价就已对国家市场监管总局的调查作出了回应，相较2020年最高收盘价309.4港元，阿里港股股价在年末下跌了25%。2021年，阿里港股经历了一波涨势后又回到了220港元左右的低点。阿里巴巴美股走势与港股类似，目前市值6000亿美元左右，与去年下半年股价最高点相比下跌也超过20%。利空也确实出尽。“发达国家对苹果、亚马逊等平台经济巨头的反垄断监管，并没有让这些企业失去核心竞争力，反而促使其积极做强核心业务，实现长远健康发展。”人民日报发表评论称，规范是为了更好发展，“扯袖子”也是一种爱护。4月12日港股开盘，阿里开盘大涨5%。目前，阿里巴巴美股市值排在特斯拉、台积电之后，但仍稳居全球市值前十大的公司。02 沉默有趣的是，处罚消息一出，最沉默的恰恰是曾经与阿里杠得最凶的。2015年，京东起诉阿里“二选一”，要求阿里停止“二选一”，并向其索赔10亿，官司持续了数年，后来，唯品会和拼多多也递交申请，请求以第三人身份加入诉讼。大有“三英战吕布”之势。2019年，弱势的商家也揭竿而起，向平台发起挑战。在本报的《格兰仕炮轰天猫“四大错”，店大欺客20万备货化为泡影》报提到，“2019年初，天猫要求格兰仕‘二选一’，格兰仕拒绝下架其他网络零售平台后，格兰仕在天猫平台的六大核心门店遭遇重创，造成超20万产品库存积压，单店销售额同比最高下滑89%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，格兰仕在京东旗舰店销量整体上涨超过30%，6·18当天销售额超过100%。”图源：格兰仕4月11日，《IT时报》记者采访了多家互联网公司，所有公司均三缄其口，选择沉默，即便是此前曾经强烈抨击过对手“二选一”的公司。一位多年参与双11的品牌商家表示，从去年开始，“二选一”的要求就没那么严格了，各平台似乎都放松了要求。与此相对应，对平台经济的“反垄断”监管风暴在2020年末逐渐升级。2020年12月11日，中央政治局会议首提要“强化反垄断和防止资本无序扩张”，并在之后的中央经济会议以及全国人民代表大会政府工作报告中一再重申。有时候，浅水是喧哗的，深水才是沉默的。03 喧嚣除了电商，互联网不同领域的领头羊也都或多或少被诟病涉嫌“垄断”。此次阿里巴巴因“二选一”被处罚涉及“限定交易”，根据《国务院反垄断委员会关于相关市场界定的指南》（以下简称《指南》），垄断行为包括：不公平价格交易、低于成本销售、拒绝交易、限定交易、搭售或附加不合理交易条件、差别待遇，外卖平台、搜索引擎、在线旅游等领域出现的“大数据杀熟”“搭售”“高额抽佣”“补贴后提价”等常见现象，都被消费者质疑是否属于“垄断范畴”。于是，尖利的声音出现在电商领域之外。58同城网CEO姚劲波成为阿里巴巴被处罚消息传出后，第一个向对手开炮的互联网大佬。姚劲波微博发文称，房产交易领域有更明目张胆的二选一包装成自愿，强烈呼吁国家反垄断罚款40亿（4%标准），矛头直指贝壳。其晒出两张图片，一张应该是贝壳上太原房源信息，标注有“独家”，另一张则是合同，要求乙方“自愿选择仅为贝壳提供新房渠道销售服务”。图源：微博这条微博发出之后，下面的评论两极分化，叫好者有之，但也有人提出，58在收购安居客和赶集以来，房产经纪人的端口费从300元涨到了一个季度3000元，同样涉嫌“垄断”。一位上海房地产中介透露，现在赶集网端口费一季度3000元，该价格大概维持两年了，“不过现在端口流量明显不如过去了，以前每天接咨询电话接到不想接，现在有时候一周都接不到一个电话，我们中介经理们都怀疑流量去哪儿了，但也没有确凿证据。”图源：微博无论如何，姚劲波的发声都不应被看成一件坏事，市场竞争环境的清澈，需要各种各样的声音。经过十余年发展，中国的互联网经济逐渐形成资本—市场—算法的成功逻辑，“赢家通吃”“马太效应”扼杀了中小企业的创新之路，也让成功者和模仿者忍不住想要“复制再复制”。无论如何，姚劲波应该不会是4月10日之后唯一一个叫板的人。此次监管出手，是一个明确的信号，人民日报表示，“加强反垄断执法，正是以法治手段规制平台经济领域的垄断行为，给众多小公司、小网站带来良性竞争、茁壮成长的机会，使整个行业能持续创新、活力常在。”或许，经此一役，会有更多中小企业在遭遇“不公正竞争”时，有了发声的勇气。04 警醒网经社电子商务研究中心特约研究员、浙江传媒学院互联网与社会研究院院长方兴东说：“国家市监总局对阿里巴巴集团《处罚决定书》中有着不少细节，尤其对相关市场的界定，简单有力，代表着中国互联网反垄断执法实质性的进步，值得一读。”4月10日，国家市场监督管理总局在发布行政处罚决定的同时，公布了《国家市场监督管理总局行政处罚决定书》（国市监处〔2021〕28号，以下简称《处罚决定书》）和《行政指导书》（国市监行指反垄〔2021〕1号），对此次处罚的调查过程、判定依据做了详细解读。直播、短视频都是电商相关市场界定，是垄断行为是否成立需确定的第一步。《反垄断法》第19条规定，判断经营者是否具有“支配地位”的前提条件是，在“相关市场”市场份额达到二分之一。《处罚决定书》开篇便明确，本案相关市场是“中国境内网络零售服务市场”，并从不同类别经营者、不同商品销售方式、不同商品品类等三个方面详细分析，“网络零售平台服务构成单独的相关商品市场”。图源：《处罚决定书》比如，针对B2C网络零售和C2C网络零售两种不同模式，平台都是提供网络经营场所、交易撮合、信息发布等服务，帮助平台内经营者与消费者达成交易，并无本质区别，因此属于同一类相关商品市场。比如，无论是传统展示型的网络零售模式，还是新兴的直播、短视频等网络零售模式，平台对平台内经营者提供的均为网络经营场所、交易撮合、信息发布等服务，均可以满足消费者网络购物需求。因此也属于同一相关商品市场。比如，网络零售商品可分为服装、电子数码、家用电器、食品、化妆品、家居用品、家装建材等细分品类，但对平台内经营者和消费者而言，网络零售平台服务内容并无本质区别。一个细节是，《处罚决定书》提出，“当事人提出，本案相关商品市场应界定为B2C网络零售平台服务市场”，似乎侧面印证，本案源起与B2C市场有关。2015年11月，京东向国家工商行政管理总局举报阿里巴巴，指责阿里巴巴要求商家“二选一”，从此拉开双方在此话题上的拉锯战。另一个细节是，本案提及数据均起于2015年，止于2019年。图源：《处罚决定书》从以上三点分析可以看出，国家市场监督管理总局驳回了阿里巴巴将此案限定于“B2C市场”的提议，而是将淘宝直播、抖音、快手等新型直播电商，天猫、京东自营等B2C模式都纳入界定范畴。不过，《国务院反垄断委员会关于平台经济领域的反垄断指南》中对于相关市场界定的原则是“坚持个案分析”，这意味着，并非所有电商领域的反垄断案件都会参照同样的相关市场界定。确定“分母”大小同时，《处罚决定书》做了一个关键判定：网络零售平台服务与线下零售商业服务不属于同一相关商品市场。线下零售商业服务为经营者和消费者进行商品交易提供实体经营场所、商品陈列及相关配套等服务，与网络零售平台服务在功能上具有一定相似性，但二者不具有紧密替代关系。图源：《处罚决定书》这个判定意义在于，阿里巴巴是否在相关市场具有“市场支配地位”，计算的基数是网络零售平台市场，而不是整个社会消费品零售总额。二者相差甚大。根据国家统计局数据，2020年全国网上零售额达11.76万亿元，同比增长10.9%，实物商品网上零售额达9.76万亿元，同比增长14.8%。但占社会消费品零售总额的比重不到1/4。阿里巴巴最新的2021财年数据还未公布，上一年2020财年财报显示，截至2020年3月31日止的12个月里，阿里巴巴数字经济体的消费型商业业务GMV达人民币7.053万亿元，突破1万亿美元。简单计算，约占全国网上零售额的60%左右，但这个数字可能包括了阿里巴巴的海外市场收入。根据《处罚决定书》，监管部门最终确认阿里巴巴网络零售平台商品交易额在中国境内网络零售商品交易总额近5年市场份额是：76.21%、69.96%、63.58%、61.70%、61.83%。均超过50%。1/2，具有市场支配地位是否具有市场支配地位，是判断垄断的第二个前提。《处罚决定书》中的描述是，当事人（指阿里巴巴）长期占有较高市场份额，且具有很高的市场认可度和消费者黏性，平台内经营者迁移成本较高，根据《反垄断法》第十八条、第十九条的规定，本机关认定，当事人在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场具有支配地位。图源：《反垄断法》《处罚决定书》从七个方面综合判断阿里具有市场支配地位，包括市场份额超过50%、相关市场高度集中、具有雄厚的财力和先进的技术条件、其他经营者在交易上高度依赖当事人、相关市场进入难度大、在关联市场具有显著优势。其中有几处提及的数据，对其他领域同类问题认定，有一定借鉴意义。第一、《处罚决定书》从平台服务收入和平台商品交易额两方面统计数据入手，说明市场份额超过50%。2015-2019年，以中国境内10家主要网络零售平台合计服务收入为基数，阿里平台服务收入占比分别为86.07%、75.77%、78.51%、75.44%、71.17%。阿里2020财年年报显示，截至2020年3月31日，阿里巴巴集团当年收入为人民币5097.11亿元。可比数据是，2019年，“老二”京东净服务收入为662亿元，包括平台及广告收入、物流和其他服务收入。“老三”拼多多2019年的营收为301.4亿元。此外，前文提到，阿里巴巴网络零售平台商品交易额在中国境内网络零售商品交易总额中的占比，连续五年超过了50%。第二，《处罚决定书》里从HHI指数（赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数）和CR4指数（市场集中度指数）入手，判断相关市场已经高度集中。两个指数的具体计算公式比较复杂，但有可参考的标准，比如美国反垄断执法的重要文件《司法部和联邦贸易委员会横向合并指南》中认为，企业并购后HHI指数超过1800时，属于高度集中市场。CR4是行业前四名份额集中度指标，当它超过75%时，这个市场被认为是极高寡占型。《处罚决定书》显示，2015—2019年，中国境内网络零售平台服务市场的HHI指数（赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数）分别为7408、6008、6375、5925、5350，CR4指数（市场集中度指数）分别为99.68、99.46、98.92、98.66、98.45。也就是说，中国境内的网络零售平台服务市场属于集中度很高的市场，且监管方认为，阿里巴巴在其中市场份额较为稳定，长期保持较强竞争优势，其他竞争性平台对当事人的竞争约束有限。“二选一”底朝天通过正当市场竞争获得市场支配地位并非企业“原罪”，但如果当年的屠龙少年成了巨龙，利用垄断地位打压其他竞争对手，那么，《反垄断法》存在的意义也在于此。此次国家市场监管总局出手，直接将业内公开秘密“二选一”调查了个底朝天。首先，禁止核心商家在其他竞争性平台开店。调查显示，阿里巴巴根据销售增长、商品能力、用户运营、品牌力、服务能力、合规经营等因素将平台内经营者由高到低划分为SSKA、SKA、KA、核腰、腰部、长尾、底部等七个层次。其中KA及以上经营者（以下统称为核心商家）通过签订独家框架协议或者被口头要求只能“二选一”，不得开店，或者只能开非旗舰店、控制其他竞争性平台专卖专营店数量、下架全部商品、不予发货、限制库存等。一位在天猫、京东、拼多多都有店铺的商家告诉《IT时报》记者，作为品牌的一级经销商，他们被明确要求，不得在拼多多上开“旗舰店”，而只能叫“**品牌店”，而且价格不得低于其他两个电商平台，“所以你看，很多大品牌在拼多多上都没有旗舰店。”而且，这些要求都是口头通知，没有写在合同里。当年拼多多攻势最猛的时候，他们为了在拼多多上开店，另行注册了一个公司，并且挑选了一些差异化的商品，在拼多多上做底价销售，但这些商品在其他平台上都不能销售。其次，禁止商家参加其他平台的促销活动。一是在协议中直接规定不得参加其他竞争性平台促销活动；二是当事人均通过口头明确要求、发送核心商家在其他竞争性平台促销页面截屏等明示或暗示方式，要求核心商家不得参加其他竞争性平台的促销活动。早在2013年，《IT时报》便接到供应商爆料，已经接到天猫口头电话通知，警告他们若参加京东618促销，以后将不能参加淘宝双十一的活动。此后，随着双11和618的规模越来越大，二选一的话题每年至少出现两次。第三，用奖惩措施保障“二选一”要求实施。当事人一方面通过流量支持等激励性措施促使平台内经营者执行“二选一”要求，另一方面对不执行相关要求的平台内经营者实施处罚，包括减少促销活动资源支持、取消参加促销活动资格、搜索降权、取消在平台上的其他重大权益等。调查透露，阿里巴巴有个“灰名单”，如果经营者未执行“二选一”要求，就会被列入“灰名单”，进而遭到处罚，只有“服软”并重新审核通过后，方能恢复参加“聚划算”“天天特卖”等日常促销活动的报名资格。2019年618前夕，格兰仕发布了一份“关于格兰仕在天猫平台出现搜索异常的声明”，称拜访拼多多后，格兰仕在天猫平台的搜索端陆续出现异常，因为格兰仕不愿“退出拼多多”，被屏蔽了格兰仕在淘宝、聚划算、淘抢购上的资源，天猫上六家核心店铺销售较去年同期均大幅下滑。图源：格兰仕2019年10月28日，格兰仕向广州知识产权法院就天猫涉嫌滥用市场支配地位等相关事宜提起诉讼，并于11月4日得到受理。而天猫于2019年10月25日将猫宁店铺的格兰仕产品全部下架。阿里集团市场公关委员会主席王帅曾回应“二选一”现象，表示这本来就是正常的市场行为，也是最朴素的商业规则，不愿配合某些企业进行炒作。图源：网络然而，没有永远的对手，只有永远的利益。曾经要对簿公堂的格兰仕和阿里巴巴选择重归于好。2020年6月29日，双方签订合作协议，将在产品创新、新品研发、IoT（物联网）技术应用等领域开展全方位数字化合作。但此案也作为《电子商务法》颁布实施以来，第一个公开站出来声明遭遇电商行业“2选1”现象的案例，在电商发展史上留下重要一笔。“脱钩式二选一”阿里之后，下一个是谁？有媒体押在腾讯上，并引用知情人士信源称，马化腾在3月拜访了市场监管总局，讨论公司合规事宜。此外，美团、滴滴、京东、拼多多、字节跳动等巨头的名字都频繁被提及。图源：网络《IT时报》认为，“脱钩式二选一”也值得警惕。近年来，互联网“脱钩”成为常态。抖音、淘宝链接至今不能在微信分享，而《IT时报》记者此前调查发现，只要在抖音多闪里发送微信链接，就会被抖音禁止发言。支付平台彼此之间也屏蔽，美团一度不能使用支付宝，淘宝不能使用微信支付。在上述品牌商家看来，平台利用已有优势限制商家已成为常态，尽管直播电商这两年很火，但他们迟迟没有进入，“要重新在抖音小店里上架商品，我们已有优势没办法复用。”2020年10月9日起，抖音规定，第三方来源的商品将不再支持进入直播间购物车，抖音小店平台来源商品不受影响。也就是说，直播时正在卖的商品只能在抖音小店上架。尽管非直播时段的商品橱窗可以跳至外链，但这种传统电商展示的方式在短视频平台上，并非主流。此前，《IT时报》也曾报道，在淘宝系之外的平台带货的网红，只要货品链接跳转到淘宝的商品交易，都会被淘宝收取额外一笔6%的“专项服务费”。在商家看来，这也是变相的“二选一”。这些与“二选一”类似的商业壁垒，不但有碍市场竞争的嫌疑，而且也切实地影响到消费者的惯常使用习惯和体验。方兴东认为，4%的处罚开创了历史，可以让“滥用垄断”的巨头感受到真正肉痛，对其他互联网巨头们无疑是有警示作用的。网经社电子商务研究中心特约研究员、浙江垦丁律师事务所褚霞律师则提醒，在处罚决定书发布同时，国家市场监督管理总局还发布了《国家市场监督管理总局行政指导书》（国市监行指反垄〔2021〕1号），值得其他可能在相关市场具有市场支配地位的互联网企业引起重视。这意味着，在各自领域内占据领头羊地位的互联网平台，都必须将“反垄断合规”作为今后重要的绩效指挥棒。总之，从今以后，互联网巨头得三思而后行，而且还必须“讲武德”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348571920,"gmtCreate":1617946489360,"gmtModify":1704705166492,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348571920","repostId":"1160193963","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160193963","pubTimestamp":1617944845,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160193963?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-09 13:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"小米生态链公司石头科技下场造车，天使轮估值2.4亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160193963","media":"36氪","summary":"小米、百度之后，科技公司造车潮还在延续。36氪从多位行业知情人士处获悉，小米生态链公司石头科技已经下场造车，石头科技创始人兼CEO昌敬亲自操盘，成立独立的汽车公司，石头科技同时也向石头汽车公司出资。与","content":"<p>小米、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>之后，科技公司造车潮还在延续。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>从多位行业知情人士处获悉，小米生态链公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688169\">石头科技</a>已经下场造车，石头科技创始人兼CEO昌敬亲自操盘，成立独立的汽车公司，石头科技同时也向石头汽车公司出资。与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>一样，石头汽车首款车选择了增程技术路线，初步的产品定位是类似奔驰G系列的硬派越野车型。</p><p>消息人士向36氪透露，石头科技的造车项目在2020年底已经启动，天使轮估值达到2.4亿美元，石头科技的老股东高榕资本、北极光创投等机构已投资该项目。前威马汽车CTO闫枫也已经加入石头科技的造车项目。</p><p>就上述信息，36氪向石头科技求证，截至发稿，未获回应。</p><p>“认购很火爆，（石头汽车）后续两轮的融资也都基本敲定了。”接触到石头科技汽车项目的行业人士透露。</p><p>石头科技是小米生态链上的明星公司，主营业务为扫地<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>清洁硬件，其主要产品为小米定制品牌米家智能扫地机器人、米家手持无线吸尘器，以及自有品牌石头智能扫地机器人和小瓦智能扫地机器人。2020年2月，石头科技登陆科创板，目前市值已经达到770亿人民币。</p><p>不到10天前的3月底，小米集团宣布造车，成立小米汽车公司，雷军担任汽车公司CEO，初步投入100亿元。消息人士告诉36氪，就当下的信息看，小米与石头科技的汽车项目是相互独立的，没有关联，双方也没有在资本层面合作。</p><p>“小米汽车的出发点，是小米或者雷军要赌下一个大的增长赛道，石头科技的汽车项目更多是石头科技CEO昌敬的个人情节。”有知情人士告诉36氪，昌敬典型的汽车发烧友，尤其钟爱越野车，“他家里有10几台丰田普拉多，对汽车研究很深。”第一款车，昌敬也果断选择了对标奔驰G系列的越野车型，希望借助增程技术，单次续航突破1000公里。</p><p>从公开信息看，昌敬毕业于华南理工大学计算机专业，软件工程师出身，2011年，任<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>高级产品经理，此后，创立美图工具北京魔图精灵。2014年，昌敬创立石头科技，他为这家公司选择的路径是应用创新技术快速推出领先产品。</p><p>例如，石头科技一开始就确立了以基于激光测距模组（LDS）的为技术基础的智能扫地机器人产。在2014年9月中旬，创始团队向投资人演示了同步定位与地图构建（SLAM）的原型，并因此获取小米投资，并委托公司开发米家智能扫地机器人。而扫地机器人应用的激光雷达、视觉SLAM定位技术正与无人驾驶技术相通。</p><p>接受媒体采访时，昌敬也谈到，“一方面，扫地机器人上的激光雷达，是和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>无人车的激光雷达逻辑一样，我们相当于把无人车技术运用到了扫地机器人领域；另一方面，我们把相关路径规划和定位技术搬到了室内，运用在扫地机器人上。”</p><p>如今，造车热潮高涨，除了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、理想汽车和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>等头部公司，百度、小米、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、华为都在智能汽车赛道上下场投入，石头科技这样的新入场者是否还有机会？</p><p>有参与造车行业多年的资本人士向36氪评论称，虽然玩家众多，但仍然有很多细分市场没有被覆盖到，比如新造车头部公司普遍聚焦在20-50万元的中高端左右市场，20万以下的大众市场，仍然没有一款稳定的智能电动车品牌，以及在越野、工具车等领域，同样还有创新机会。</p><p>“实际上，真正的新造车浪潮才刚开始。”上述资本人士说。</p>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米生态链公司石头科技下场造车，天使轮估值2.4亿美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米生态链公司石头科技下场造车，天使轮估值2.4亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 13:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/1174231882547458><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>小米、百度之后，科技公司造车潮还在延续。36氪从多位行业知情人士处获悉，小米生态链公司石头科技已经下场造车，石头科技创始人兼CEO昌敬亲自操盘，成立独立的汽车公司，石头科技同时也向石头汽车公司出资。与理想汽车一样，石头汽车首款车选择了增程技术路线，初步的产品定位是类似奔驰G系列的硬派越野车型。消息人士向36氪透露，石头科技的造车项目在2020年底已经启动，天使轮估值达到2.4亿美元，石头科技的老...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1174231882547458\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9020cc3ba86a02ac5649f251c5ad5f5","relate_stocks":{"688169":"石头科技"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1174231882547458","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160193963","content_text":"小米、百度之后，科技公司造车潮还在延续。36氪从多位行业知情人士处获悉，小米生态链公司石头科技已经下场造车，石头科技创始人兼CEO昌敬亲自操盘，成立独立的汽车公司，石头科技同时也向石头汽车公司出资。与理想汽车一样，石头汽车首款车选择了增程技术路线，初步的产品定位是类似奔驰G系列的硬派越野车型。消息人士向36氪透露，石头科技的造车项目在2020年底已经启动，天使轮估值达到2.4亿美元，石头科技的老股东高榕资本、北极光创投等机构已投资该项目。前威马汽车CTO闫枫也已经加入石头科技的造车项目。就上述信息，36氪向石头科技求证，截至发稿，未获回应。“认购很火爆，（石头汽车）后续两轮的融资也都基本敲定了。”接触到石头科技汽车项目的行业人士透露。石头科技是小米生态链上的明星公司，主营业务为扫地机器人等智能清洁硬件，其主要产品为小米定制品牌米家智能扫地机器人、米家手持无线吸尘器，以及自有品牌石头智能扫地机器人和小瓦智能扫地机器人。2020年2月，石头科技登陆科创板，目前市值已经达到770亿人民币。不到10天前的3月底，小米集团宣布造车，成立小米汽车公司，雷军担任汽车公司CEO，初步投入100亿元。消息人士告诉36氪，就当下的信息看，小米与石头科技的汽车项目是相互独立的，没有关联，双方也没有在资本层面合作。“小米汽车的出发点，是小米或者雷军要赌下一个大的增长赛道，石头科技的汽车项目更多是石头科技CEO昌敬的个人情节。”有知情人士告诉36氪，昌敬典型的汽车发烧友，尤其钟爱越野车，“他家里有10几台丰田普拉多，对汽车研究很深。”第一款车，昌敬也果断选择了对标奔驰G系列的越野车型，希望借助增程技术，单次续航突破1000公里。从公开信息看，昌敬毕业于华南理工大学计算机专业，软件工程师出身，2011年，任腾讯高级产品经理，此后，创立美图工具北京魔图精灵。2014年，昌敬创立石头科技，他为这家公司选择的路径是应用创新技术快速推出领先产品。例如，石头科技一开始就确立了以基于激光测距模组（LDS）的为技术基础的智能扫地机器人产。在2014年9月中旬，创始团队向投资人演示了同步定位与地图构建（SLAM）的原型，并因此获取小米投资，并委托公司开发米家智能扫地机器人。而扫地机器人应用的激光雷达、视觉SLAM定位技术正与无人驾驶技术相通。接受媒体采访时，昌敬也谈到，“一方面，扫地机器人上的激光雷达，是和谷歌无人车的激光雷达逻辑一样，我们相当于把无人车技术运用到了扫地机器人领域；另一方面，我们把相关路径规划和定位技术搬到了室内，运用在扫地机器人上。”如今，造车热潮高涨，除了蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏汽车等头部公司，百度、小米、苹果、华为都在智能汽车赛道上下场投入，石头科技这样的新入场者是否还有机会？有参与造车行业多年的资本人士向36氪评论称，虽然玩家众多，但仍然有很多细分市场没有被覆盖到，比如新造车头部公司普遍聚焦在20-50万元的中高端左右市场，20万以下的大众市场，仍然没有一款稳定的智能电动车品牌，以及在越野、工具车等领域，同样还有创新机会。“实际上，真正的新造车浪潮才刚开始。”上述资本人士说。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341859836,"gmtCreate":1617804172325,"gmtModify":1704703369922,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341859836","repostId":"1101500877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340872936,"gmtCreate":1617380189725,"gmtModify":1704699338175,"author":{"id":"3579339677923534","authorId":"3579339677923534","authorIdStr":"3579339677923534","name":"LMF83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56dc434dc3f7260a3a261a177ae17b1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579339677923534"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crm","listText":"Crm","text":"Crm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340872936","repostId":"340851184","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}