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2022-03-17

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2021-06-29

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NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation

2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

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2021-04-29

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2021-04-23

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16:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124372919","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\". Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven,","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.</li>\n <li>However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.</li>\n <li>We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cdcfe41a4b886c29dad01d4512e84e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Lintao Zhang/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Similar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piece<i>Palantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</i>, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:</p>\n<p><b>#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future</b></p>\n<p>NIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>NIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.</p>\n<p>For example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its&nbsp;recent partnership&nbsp;with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.</p>\n<p>Given that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.</p>\n<p><b>#2. Autonomous Mobility &amp; AI Technology</b></p>\n<p>NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"</p>\n<p>Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.</p>\n<p><b>#3. Government Support</b></p>\n<p>Another big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.</p>\n<p>This principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.</p>\n<p>For example, the&nbsp;government recently gave&nbsp;NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.</p>\n<p>Additionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media&nbsp;recently successfully harmed&nbsp;the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.</p>\n<p><b>#4. Global Expansion</b></p>\n<p>NIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.</p>\n<p><b>#5. Crunching The Numbers</b></p>\n<p>Electric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00cdeb70c618caeddbbd16df936194ad\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"572\"></p>\n<p>In fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance&nbsp;expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.</p>\n<p>If NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.</p>\n<p>NIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.</p>\n<p>If the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated&nbsp;that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.</p>\n<p>Combining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p>While the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.</p>\n<p>Of course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a&nbsp;partnership&nbsp;with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.</p>\n<p>On that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)&nbsp;could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.</p>\n<p>Of course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.</p>\n<p>Last, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.</p>\n<p>While not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 16:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124372919","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.\n\nLintao Zhang/Getty Images News\nSimilar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piecePalantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:\n#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future\nNIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.\nNIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.\nFor example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its recent partnership with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.\nGiven that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.\n#2. Autonomous Mobility & AI Technology\nNIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"\nGiven that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.\n#3. Government Support\nAnother big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.\nThis principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.\nFor example, the government recently gave NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.\nAdditionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.\nPerhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media recently successfully harmed the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.\nFurthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.\n#4. Global Expansion\nNIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.\n#5. Crunching The Numbers\nElectric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.\n\nIn fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.\nIf NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.\nNIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.\nIf NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.\nIf the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.\nMeanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.\nMeanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.\nCombining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.\nRisk Analysis\nWhile the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.\nFirst and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.\nOf course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a partnership with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.\nOn that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA) could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.\nFurthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.\nOf course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.\nLast, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.\nInvestor Takeaway\nNIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.\nWhile not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161162700,"gmtCreate":1623911784700,"gmtModify":1703823329376,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lookout for coming months when they release new products . Stock price will go up","listText":"Lookout for coming months when they release new products . Stock price will go up","text":"Lookout for coming months when they release new products . Stock price will go up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161162700","repostId":"1152604932","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163751510,"gmtCreate":1623894353230,"gmtModify":1703822793037,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Correct","listText":"Correct","text":"Correct","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163751510","repostId":"1152730219","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163753711,"gmtCreate":1623894331633,"gmtModify":1703822791747,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noice","listText":"Noice","text":"Noice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163753711","repostId":"1104709957","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104709957","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623893470,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104709957?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 09:31","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"China launches first astronauts to its space station","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104709957","media":"CNBC","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nChina launched the first astronauts to its self-developed space station on Thursday.\nThe","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nChina launched the first astronauts to its self-developed space station on Thursday.\nThe three astronauts — Nie Haisheng, Liu Boming and Tang Hongbo — were taken up on a Shenzhou-12 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/china-launches-first-astronauts-to-its-self-developed-space-station.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China launches first astronauts to its space station</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina launches first astronauts to its space station\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/china-launches-first-astronauts-to-its-self-developed-space-station.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nChina launched the first astronauts to its self-developed space station on Thursday.\nThe three astronauts — Nie Haisheng, Liu Boming and Tang Hongbo — were taken up on a Shenzhou-12 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/china-launches-first-astronauts-to-its-self-developed-space-station.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/china-launches-first-astronauts-to-its-self-developed-space-station.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1104709957","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nChina launched the first astronauts to its self-developed space station on Thursday.\nThe three astronauts — Nie Haisheng, Liu Boming and Tang Hongbo — were taken up on a Shenzhou-12 spacecraft which was launched atop a Long March 2F rocket at around 9:22 a.m. China time.\nBeijing has made space exploration a top priority as China looks to challenge the U.S. in a number of areas of technology.\n\nAstronauts (L-R) Tang Hongbo, Nie Haisheng, and Liu Boming depart for the launch site of the Senzhou-12 spacecraft at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on June 17, 2021 in Jiuquan, Gansu Province, China.\nGUANGZHOU, China — China launched the first astronauts to its self-developed space station on Thursday.\nThe move marks a major step as the world’s second-largest economy looks to boost its space capabilities and challenge the U.S.\nThe three astronauts — Nie Haisheng, Liu Boming and Tang Hongbo — were taken up on a Shenzhou-12 spacecraft which was launched atop a Long March 2F rocket at around 9:22 a.m. China time. It took off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, in northwest of the country.\nIt’s the first time China has sent a manned mission to space since 2016. If successful, it will be a major point of pride as Beijing prepares for the 100 year anniversary of the founding of the Communist party.\nBeijing has made space exploration a top priority as China looks to challenge the U.S. in a number of areas of technology.\nChina expects its three-module self-developed space station to be fully operational by 2022.\nIn April, it launched one of the modules that will make up the space station called “Tianhe”, which will be the living quarters for the astronauts. And last month, China sent the Tianzhou-2 cargo spacecraft to dock with Tianhe. This spacecraft contains supplies for the astronauts such as food.\nChina will carry out 11 missions this year and next to complete the construction of the space station, including four manned missions.\nThe three astronauts sent to the space station on Thursday will spend three months there, testing the technologies required for the construction and operation of the space station such as life support mechanisms and in-orbit maintenance and also carry out space walks.\nThe space station will have separate sleeping areas as well as space-to-ground communications.\nChina is barred from sending its astronauts to the International Space Station, which is a co-operative effort between the United States, Russia, Europe, Japan, and Canada. That has fueled its ambition to make its own space station, which is expected to remain in operation for at least 10 years. The ISS, meanwhile, could be retired in 2024.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132986854,"gmtCreate":1622065767678,"gmtModify":1704178630261,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132986854","repostId":"2138511164","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138511164","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622036700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138511164?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 21:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Wait For a Market Crash: These 2 Top Stocks Are On Sale","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138511164","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"At current levels, these two excellent companies are a bargain.","content":"<p>Waiting for a stock to bottom out before picking up its shares at a discount -- a practice known as timing the market -- is almost impossible to pull off consistently. Investors would have to know precisely when shares of a company have reached rock bottom, and for anyone who can always know that in advance, a career in fortune telling might be more lucrative than investing in stocks. Another way to buy stocks at a discount is to wait for a market crash.</p><p>After all, great companies will recover from a downturn, and those smart enough to hold their shares through thick and thin can be handsomely rewarded. If you don't have time to wait for the market to plunge, look for great stocks that have been under pressure of late, but whose businesses and long-term prospects remain intact. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> such companies are <b>Vertex Pharmaceuticals</b> (NASDAQ:VRTX) and <b>Shopify</b> (NYSE:SHOP).</p><h2>1. Vertex Pharmaceuticals</h2><p>Shares of biotech giant Vertex Pharmaceuticals are down a mere 3.9% over the past three months, compared to gains of 7.3% for the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>. But that alone doesn't tell the whole story of the drugmaker's recent woes. In October 2020, Vertex's stock dropped precipitously in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> day after the company announced its decision to discontinue the development of VX-814, a potential treatment for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD).</p><p>The company's decision came after it observed elevated liver enzymes in several AATD patients in a midstage trial for VX-814. But this market reaction may have been a bit overblown. For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, Vertex is known primarily for its drugs that treat the underlying causes of cystic fibrosis (CF), a rare genetic condition that affects a patient's internal organs.</p><p>Vertex's most important CF drug, Trikafta, has a patent that will be valid until 2037. Trikafta can treat about 90% of the CF population. Even if competitors -- some of whom are looking to develop competing CF drugs -- manage to enter this market, thanks to its first-mover advantage, Vertex will likely remain the leader in this space for the foreseeable future.</p><p>Also, while VX-814 may have helped diversify its revenue stream away from Trikafta and other CF medicines, Vertex has other promising pipeline products that could do just that.&nbsp;There is VX-864, another potential drug for AATD, which, according to the company, is \"structurally different\" from VX-814. In other words, the failure of the former is not at all indicative of what may happen to the latter. Vertex said it expects to release data from a phase 2 clinical trial for VX-864 in the first half of this year.</p><p>Then there is CTX001, a potential gene editing therapy for transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT) and sickle cell disease (SCD) the company is developing in collaboration with <b>CRISPR Therapeutics</b>. CTX001 has shown success in preventing vaso-occlusive crises (a side effect of SCD that causes acute pain) in several patients, among other positive results.</p><p>Management believes regulatory submission for CTX001 could happen within the next 18 to 24 months. Further, Vertex is an ambitious company with several more pipeline candidates, including one targeted at type 1 diabetes. And if that seems like too much of a long shot, consider that the biotech generated a little more than $3 billion in free cash flow over the trailing 12-month period.</p><p>If none of its current programs pan out (which seems unlikely), expect Vertex to go out and purchase the rights to others -- or even acquire a smaller biotech with a rich and promising pipeline. The combination of all those factors makes Vertex a biotech stock still worth buying.</p><h2>2. Shopify</h2><p>In the past few months, the market hasn't been kind to high-flying growth stocks. Shares of e-commerce giant Shopify -- a market favorite and growth stock extraordinaire -- are down by 11.38% since late February. How long will the market keep Shopify down? I am not sure, but as a shareholder, I feel just fine. Shopify remains one of my highest conviction holdings for two simple reasons. First, there is the growth of the e-commerce industry.</p><p>Despite many investors and analysts preaching the death of brick and mortar businesses, these businesses are not quite dead yet. Sure, many traditional retailers are struggling, but online transactions still make up a small percentage of total transactions in the U.S. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, e-commerce sales accounted for just 13.4% of total sales during the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>Keep in mind, e-commerce penetration is even lower in many other parts of the world, particularly in less developed nations.&nbsp;In other words, this space can still grow by leaps and bounds, and Shopify and its peers can continue to profit for many years (and potentially decades) to come.</p><p>Then there is Shopify's \"sticky\" business model: that is, one which is constructed in such a way as to retain customers, thereby creating a growing source of recurring revenue. Think about the amount of work it takes to create a storefront from scratch (which is what Shopify offers merchants on its platform), particularly for those who aren't tech or internet-savvy.</p><p>But that's just the first step -- then, a business owner has to attract customers to its shiny, new online presence. Merchants on Shopify's platform also rely on the company for a plethora of other services, including billing, shipping, and more. Once an entrepreneur has gone through all this trouble, the incentive to switch to one of Shopify's competitors is pretty low.</p><p>This isn't just a matter of convenience either, although that's part of it. But the process could actually be harmful to the business. This powerful source of a competitive advantage is why I am confident Shopify will keep most of its clients while continuously adding new ones. And that can only mean great news for the company's revenue, profits, and stock market performance in the long run.</p><p>In five years or so, we may look at the recent market turmoil as a great buying opportunity for Shopify.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Wait For a Market Crash: These 2 Top Stocks Are On Sale</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Wait For a Market Crash: These 2 Top Stocks Are On Sale\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-26 21:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/26/dont-wait-for-a-market-crash-these-2-top-stocks-ar/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Waiting for a stock to bottom out before picking up its shares at a discount -- a practice known as timing the market -- is almost impossible to pull off consistently. Investors would have to know ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/26/dont-wait-for-a-market-crash-these-2-top-stocks-ar/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc","VERX":"Vertex, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/26/dont-wait-for-a-market-crash-these-2-top-stocks-ar/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138511164","content_text":"Waiting for a stock to bottom out before picking up its shares at a discount -- a practice known as timing the market -- is almost impossible to pull off consistently. Investors would have to know precisely when shares of a company have reached rock bottom, and for anyone who can always know that in advance, a career in fortune telling might be more lucrative than investing in stocks. Another way to buy stocks at a discount is to wait for a market crash.After all, great companies will recover from a downturn, and those smart enough to hold their shares through thick and thin can be handsomely rewarded. If you don't have time to wait for the market to plunge, look for great stocks that have been under pressure of late, but whose businesses and long-term prospects remain intact. Two such companies are Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP).1. Vertex PharmaceuticalsShares of biotech giant Vertex Pharmaceuticals are down a mere 3.9% over the past three months, compared to gains of 7.3% for the S&P 500. But that alone doesn't tell the whole story of the drugmaker's recent woes. In October 2020, Vertex's stock dropped precipitously in one day after the company announced its decision to discontinue the development of VX-814, a potential treatment for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD).The company's decision came after it observed elevated liver enzymes in several AATD patients in a midstage trial for VX-814. But this market reaction may have been a bit overblown. For one, Vertex is known primarily for its drugs that treat the underlying causes of cystic fibrosis (CF), a rare genetic condition that affects a patient's internal organs.Vertex's most important CF drug, Trikafta, has a patent that will be valid until 2037. Trikafta can treat about 90% of the CF population. Even if competitors -- some of whom are looking to develop competing CF drugs -- manage to enter this market, thanks to its first-mover advantage, Vertex will likely remain the leader in this space for the foreseeable future.Also, while VX-814 may have helped diversify its revenue stream away from Trikafta and other CF medicines, Vertex has other promising pipeline products that could do just that. There is VX-864, another potential drug for AATD, which, according to the company, is \"structurally different\" from VX-814. In other words, the failure of the former is not at all indicative of what may happen to the latter. Vertex said it expects to release data from a phase 2 clinical trial for VX-864 in the first half of this year.Then there is CTX001, a potential gene editing therapy for transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT) and sickle cell disease (SCD) the company is developing in collaboration with CRISPR Therapeutics. CTX001 has shown success in preventing vaso-occlusive crises (a side effect of SCD that causes acute pain) in several patients, among other positive results.Management believes regulatory submission for CTX001 could happen within the next 18 to 24 months. Further, Vertex is an ambitious company with several more pipeline candidates, including one targeted at type 1 diabetes. And if that seems like too much of a long shot, consider that the biotech generated a little more than $3 billion in free cash flow over the trailing 12-month period.If none of its current programs pan out (which seems unlikely), expect Vertex to go out and purchase the rights to others -- or even acquire a smaller biotech with a rich and promising pipeline. The combination of all those factors makes Vertex a biotech stock still worth buying.2. ShopifyIn the past few months, the market hasn't been kind to high-flying growth stocks. Shares of e-commerce giant Shopify -- a market favorite and growth stock extraordinaire -- are down by 11.38% since late February. How long will the market keep Shopify down? I am not sure, but as a shareholder, I feel just fine. Shopify remains one of my highest conviction holdings for two simple reasons. First, there is the growth of the e-commerce industry.Despite many investors and analysts preaching the death of brick and mortar businesses, these businesses are not quite dead yet. Sure, many traditional retailers are struggling, but online transactions still make up a small percentage of total transactions in the U.S. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, e-commerce sales accounted for just 13.4% of total sales during the first quarter of 2021.Keep in mind, e-commerce penetration is even lower in many other parts of the world, particularly in less developed nations. In other words, this space can still grow by leaps and bounds, and Shopify and its peers can continue to profit for many years (and potentially decades) to come.Then there is Shopify's \"sticky\" business model: that is, one which is constructed in such a way as to retain customers, thereby creating a growing source of recurring revenue. Think about the amount of work it takes to create a storefront from scratch (which is what Shopify offers merchants on its platform), particularly for those who aren't tech or internet-savvy.But that's just the first step -- then, a business owner has to attract customers to its shiny, new online presence. Merchants on Shopify's platform also rely on the company for a plethora of other services, including billing, shipping, and more. Once an entrepreneur has gone through all this trouble, the incentive to switch to one of Shopify's competitors is pretty low.This isn't just a matter of convenience either, although that's part of it. But the process could actually be harmful to the business. This powerful source of a competitive advantage is why I am confident Shopify will keep most of its clients while continuously adding new ones. And that can only mean great news for the company's revenue, profits, and stock market performance in the long run.In five years or so, we may look at the recent market turmoil as a great buying opportunity for Shopify.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109588361,"gmtCreate":1619705028953,"gmtModify":1704728349409,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Beaut","listText":"Beaut","text":"Beaut","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109588361","repostId":"1161815718","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161815718","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619685728,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161815718?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 16:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"25 Undervalued Stocks with Earnings Set to Beat Pre-Covid Levels in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161815718","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"SinceBarron’slast screened for European stocks whose earnings prospects may not be fully priced in, ","content":"<p>Since<i>Barron’s</i>last screened for European stocks whose earnings prospects may not be fully priced in, the pan-EuropeanStoxx 600has climbed to record highs despite much of the continent battling a third wave of Covid-19.</p>\n<p>The index is now up more than 10% year-to-date but there are signs that more gains could be ahead, with Europe’s economic recoveryyet to really get going. Initiallyslow vaccination rolloutsin many European countries are starting to gather pace, and the U.K. notably reopened large parts of the economy earlier this month.</p>\n<p>Barclays’ European equity strategists devised a stock screen designed to find companies whose share price was lagging behind its earnings estimates. Their method screened for Stoxx 600 companies currently trading at least 5% below their levels at the end of 2019 and whose 2021 earnings per share, or EPS, estimates were above their pre-Covid 2019 EPS.</p>\n<p>“On this basis, consensus numbers suggest that the better earnings growth prospects of these stocks are not fully priced in, implying potentially attractive risk-reward ,” head of European equity strategy Emmanuel Cau said.</p>\n<p>Following a similar approach,<i>Barron’s</i>screened the Stoxx 600 for stocks trading more than 10% below their levels at the end of 2019 and filtered for companies that trade for no more than 20 times forward earnings estimates. The screen used FactSet consensus estimates instead of Barclays consensus estimates. The companies must also have a market capitalization above $10 billion.</p>\n<p>An earlier version of this screen at the end of Februarycontained 37 European companieswhose shares were more than 10% lower than their end-2019 levels.</p>\n<p>Since then, the index has jumped 6.8%, hitting record highs earlier this month. As a result the number of stocks in the screen dropped to 25 at the end of March and remains at 25 this time, with many departures down to rising share prices. However, there are still a number of stocks out there sitting below their 2019 levels but set to beat 2019 earnings this year—implying room for them to grow in the months ahead.</p>\n<p>Stocks Lagging EstimatesCompanies in the Stoxx 600 whose stock currently trade 10% or more below end-2019 levels but with 2021 earnings estimates above those of 2019, with a P/E ratio under 20.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62565546aefb0d11006e4b97a5746aea\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"736\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b281e399475bb5ee78464c4d57b43c14\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"706\"></p>\n<p>Four stocks have exited the screen: French telecoms companyOrange,insurance firmAxa,French defense groupThalesand Swiss-based Coke bottlerCoca-Cola HBC.&nbsp;Axa, Coca-Cola HBC and Thales have all seen their share prices rise in the past month, leading to their exit. Orange stock still remains 21% lower than it was at the end of 2019, but the telecoms giant’s 2021 EPS estimate has fallen in recent weeks, and is now expected to be flat compared to 2019.</p>\n<p>Four companies have entered the screen: French insurerCNP Assurances,Swedish telecoms companyTelia,Swiss bankCredit Suisseand Norwegian oil-and-gas producerAker BP.Shares in both CNP and Telia have slipped over the past month to more than 10% lower than their end-2019 levels. Credit Suisse features because analysts now forecast the bank’s 2021 EPS to beat that of 2019, while Aker BP’s market value has risen above $10 billion for its first inclusion in the screen.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>25 Undervalued Stocks with Earnings Set to Beat Pre-Covid Levels in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n25 Undervalued Stocks with Earnings Set to Beat Pre-Covid Levels in 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-29 16:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/25-undervalued-stocks-with-earnings-set-to-beat-pre-covid-levels-in-2021-51619641093?mod=mw_latestnews><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SinceBarron’slast screened for European stocks whose earnings prospects may not be fully priced in, the pan-EuropeanStoxx 600has climbed to record highs despite much of the continent battling a third ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/25-undervalued-stocks-with-earnings-set-to-beat-pre-covid-levels-in-2021-51619641093?mod=mw_latestnews\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/25-undervalued-stocks-with-earnings-set-to-beat-pre-covid-levels-in-2021-51619641093?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161815718","content_text":"SinceBarron’slast screened for European stocks whose earnings prospects may not be fully priced in, the pan-EuropeanStoxx 600has climbed to record highs despite much of the continent battling a third wave of Covid-19.\nThe index is now up more than 10% year-to-date but there are signs that more gains could be ahead, with Europe’s economic recoveryyet to really get going. Initiallyslow vaccination rolloutsin many European countries are starting to gather pace, and the U.K. notably reopened large parts of the economy earlier this month.\nBarclays’ European equity strategists devised a stock screen designed to find companies whose share price was lagging behind its earnings estimates. Their method screened for Stoxx 600 companies currently trading at least 5% below their levels at the end of 2019 and whose 2021 earnings per share, or EPS, estimates were above their pre-Covid 2019 EPS.\n“On this basis, consensus numbers suggest that the better earnings growth prospects of these stocks are not fully priced in, implying potentially attractive risk-reward ,” head of European equity strategy Emmanuel Cau said.\nFollowing a similar approach,Barron’sscreened the Stoxx 600 for stocks trading more than 10% below their levels at the end of 2019 and filtered for companies that trade for no more than 20 times forward earnings estimates. The screen used FactSet consensus estimates instead of Barclays consensus estimates. The companies must also have a market capitalization above $10 billion.\nAn earlier version of this screen at the end of Februarycontained 37 European companieswhose shares were more than 10% lower than their end-2019 levels.\nSince then, the index has jumped 6.8%, hitting record highs earlier this month. As a result the number of stocks in the screen dropped to 25 at the end of March and remains at 25 this time, with many departures down to rising share prices. However, there are still a number of stocks out there sitting below their 2019 levels but set to beat 2019 earnings this year—implying room for them to grow in the months ahead.\nStocks Lagging EstimatesCompanies in the Stoxx 600 whose stock currently trade 10% or more below end-2019 levels but with 2021 earnings estimates above those of 2019, with a P/E ratio under 20.\n\nFour stocks have exited the screen: French telecoms companyOrange,insurance firmAxa,French defense groupThalesand Swiss-based Coke bottlerCoca-Cola HBC. Axa, Coca-Cola HBC and Thales have all seen their share prices rise in the past month, leading to their exit. Orange stock still remains 21% lower than it was at the end of 2019, but the telecoms giant’s 2021 EPS estimate has fallen in recent weeks, and is now expected to be flat compared to 2019.\nFour companies have entered the screen: French insurerCNP Assurances,Swedish telecoms companyTelia,Swiss bankCredit Suisseand Norwegian oil-and-gas producerAker BP.Shares in both CNP and Telia have slipped over the past month to more than 10% lower than their end-2019 levels. Credit Suisse features because analysts now forecast the bank’s 2021 EPS to beat that of 2019, while Aker BP’s market value has risen above $10 billion for its first inclusion in the screen.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376472371,"gmtCreate":1619145561493,"gmtModify":1704720341634,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Thank you&nbsp;","text":"Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376472371","repostId":"1137961906","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9035306400,"gmtCreate":1647501015795,"gmtModify":1676534238111,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That's good","listText":"That's good","text":"That's good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035306400","repostId":"2219768133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2219768133","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647481149,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2219768133?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-17 09:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Growth Stocks You Won't Regret Buying in This Market Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219768133","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Their share prices are beaten down, but their underlying businesses are strong.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>No one likes to make a bad decision. Studies have found that the pain of losing is much more intense than the pleasure associated with winning. This aversion to risk could cause you to be afraid of buying any stocks at all during the current market downturn.</p><p>However, history shows that investing in times like these often pay off handsomely over the long run. Here are three growth stocks you won&#39;t regret buying in this market correction.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6c60ed63ce5f3575aca7b16e0af5abb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>1. Teladoc Health</h2><p><b>Teladoc Health</b> (NYSE:TDOC) began falling a lot sooner than the overall stock market did. The stock is down more than 70% from its high in early 2021. Investors have been worried that growth would slow for the virtual care provider as COVID-19 concerns wane.</p><p>However, I think the view that Teladoc&#39;s fortunes are tied to COVID-19 is one of several major misconceptions about the company. Actually, Teladoc&#39;s revenue and its revenue per member increased last year despite the reopening of the U.S. economy.</p><p>Teladoc estimates that it has a $75 billion opportunity within its existing membership base, largely through promoting the use of multiple products. Its total addressable market including reaching additional customers is much larger -- more than $260 billion in the U.S. alone.</p><p>Virtual care offers cost savings for payers and convenience for patients. Teladoc stands as the leader in the industry with its breadth of services and large customer base. With a market cap of around $8 billion, this stock appears to be dirt cheap in light of its tremendous growth opportunities.</p><h2>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a></h2><p><b>MercadoLibre</b> (NASDAQ:MELI) is another one-time high-flying stock that has had its wings clipped. Its shares have fallen more than 50% since September 2021.</p><p>Was MercadoLibre&#39;s steep decline warranted? Not really. The company continues to rack up impressive numbers. It reported a blockbuster fourth quarter with strong growth across the board.</p><p>It&#39;s easy for investors to only view MercadoLibre as a Latin American e-commerce powerhouse. The company certainly qualifies as one. And it has massive growth potential in the region, with an e-commerce penetration rate of only 9% in 2021.</p><p>However, MercadoLibre is also a fintech powerhouse in Latin America. The company&#39;s fintech revenue increased even faster in Q4 than its e-commerce revenue. Don&#39;t be surprised if MercadoLibre actually makes more money from fintech than it does from e-commerce within the next few years.</p><p>Like Teladoc, MercadoLibre&#39;s valuation looks attractive based on its growth prospects. The company&#39;s market cap is under $45 billion. I think it could easily be worth several times more by the end of the decade.</p><h2>3. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings</h2><p><b>PayPal Holdings</b> (NASDAQ:PYPL) ranks as one of the biggest fintech stocks around. However, it&#39;s a lot smaller now than it was a few months ago. PayPal&#39;s shares have plunged nearly 70% since mid-2021.</p><p>The primary concern about PayPal is that its user growth is slowing. PayPal even retracted its goal of reaching 750 million accounts. But don&#39;t think for a second that the company is a lost cause. Instead, PayPal looks like a great stock to buy right now.</p><p>Importantly, PayPal hasn&#39;t changed its overall revenue, earnings, and free cash flow growth targets. The company is simply changing its focus to increasing revenue per user rather than adding a greater number of customers who aren&#39;t as profitable.</p><p>Also, the long-term tailwinds for PayPal aren&#39;t subsiding at all. The shift from cash to digital payments for both online and in-store purchases continues full steam ahead. PayPal remains the most widely accepted digital wallet in the world by far. When the stock market rebounds -- and it will (sooner or later) -- PayPal&#39;s shares should return to their winning ways.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Growth Stocks You Won't Regret Buying in This Market Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Growth Stocks You Won't Regret Buying in This Market Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-17 09:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/16/3-growth-stocks-you-wont-regret-buying-in-this-mar/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>No one likes to make a bad decision. Studies have found that the pain of losing is much more intense than the pleasure associated with winning. This aversion to risk could cause you to be afraid of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/16/3-growth-stocks-you-wont-regret-buying-in-this-mar/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4167":"医疗保健技术","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","PYPL":"PayPal","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","BK4581":"高盛持仓","MELI":"MercadoLibre","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/16/3-growth-stocks-you-wont-regret-buying-in-this-mar/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2219768133","content_text":"No one likes to make a bad decision. Studies have found that the pain of losing is much more intense than the pleasure associated with winning. This aversion to risk could cause you to be afraid of buying any stocks at all during the current market downturn.However, history shows that investing in times like these often pay off handsomely over the long run. Here are three growth stocks you won't regret buying in this market correction.Image source: Getty Images.1. Teladoc HealthTeladoc Health (NYSE:TDOC) began falling a lot sooner than the overall stock market did. The stock is down more than 70% from its high in early 2021. Investors have been worried that growth would slow for the virtual care provider as COVID-19 concerns wane.However, I think the view that Teladoc's fortunes are tied to COVID-19 is one of several major misconceptions about the company. Actually, Teladoc's revenue and its revenue per member increased last year despite the reopening of the U.S. economy.Teladoc estimates that it has a $75 billion opportunity within its existing membership base, largely through promoting the use of multiple products. Its total addressable market including reaching additional customers is much larger -- more than $260 billion in the U.S. alone.Virtual care offers cost savings for payers and convenience for patients. Teladoc stands as the leader in the industry with its breadth of services and large customer base. With a market cap of around $8 billion, this stock appears to be dirt cheap in light of its tremendous growth opportunities.2. MercadoLibreMercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) is another one-time high-flying stock that has had its wings clipped. Its shares have fallen more than 50% since September 2021.Was MercadoLibre's steep decline warranted? Not really. The company continues to rack up impressive numbers. It reported a blockbuster fourth quarter with strong growth across the board.It's easy for investors to only view MercadoLibre as a Latin American e-commerce powerhouse. The company certainly qualifies as one. And it has massive growth potential in the region, with an e-commerce penetration rate of only 9% in 2021.However, MercadoLibre is also a fintech powerhouse in Latin America. The company's fintech revenue increased even faster in Q4 than its e-commerce revenue. Don't be surprised if MercadoLibre actually makes more money from fintech than it does from e-commerce within the next few years.Like Teladoc, MercadoLibre's valuation looks attractive based on its growth prospects. The company's market cap is under $45 billion. I think it could easily be worth several times more by the end of the decade.3. PayPal HoldingsPayPal Holdings (NASDAQ:PYPL) ranks as one of the biggest fintech stocks around. However, it's a lot smaller now than it was a few months ago. PayPal's shares have plunged nearly 70% since mid-2021.The primary concern about PayPal is that its user growth is slowing. PayPal even retracted its goal of reaching 750 million accounts. But don't think for a second that the company is a lost cause. Instead, PayPal looks like a great stock to buy right now.Importantly, PayPal hasn't changed its overall revenue, earnings, and free cash flow growth targets. The company is simply changing its focus to increasing revenue per user rather than adding a greater number of customers who aren't as profitable.Also, the long-term tailwinds for PayPal aren't subsiding at all. The shift from cash to digital payments for both online and in-store purchases continues full steam ahead. PayPal remains the most widely accepted digital wallet in the world by far. When the stock market rebounds -- and it will (sooner or later) -- PayPal's shares should return to their winning ways.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150508531,"gmtCreate":1624919682523,"gmtModify":1703847719717,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buying","listText":"Buying","text":"Buying","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150508531","repostId":"1124372919","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124372919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624869783,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124372919?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 16:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124372919","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\". Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven,","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.</li>\n <li>However, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.</li>\n <li>We discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cdcfe41a4b886c29dad01d4512e84e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Lintao Zhang/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Similar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piece<i>Palantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</i>, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:</p>\n<p><b>#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future</b></p>\n<p>NIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>NIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.</p>\n<p>For example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its&nbsp;recent partnership&nbsp;with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.</p>\n<p>Given that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.</p>\n<p><b>#2. Autonomous Mobility &amp; AI Technology</b></p>\n<p>NIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"</p>\n<p>Given that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.</p>\n<p><b>#3. Government Support</b></p>\n<p>Another big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.</p>\n<p>This principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.</p>\n<p>For example, the&nbsp;government recently gave&nbsp;NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.</p>\n<p>Additionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media&nbsp;recently successfully harmed&nbsp;the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.</p>\n<p><b>#4. Global Expansion</b></p>\n<p>NIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.</p>\n<p><b>#5. Crunching The Numbers</b></p>\n<p>Electric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00cdeb70c618caeddbbd16df936194ad\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"572\"></p>\n<p>In fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance&nbsp;expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.</p>\n<p>If NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.</p>\n<p>NIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.</p>\n<p>If the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated&nbsp;that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.</p>\n<p>Combining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p>While the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.</p>\n<p>Of course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a&nbsp;partnership&nbsp;with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.</p>\n<p>On that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)&nbsp;could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.</p>\n<p>Of course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.</p>\n<p>Last, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.</p>\n<p>While not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 16:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436753-nio-the-path-to-a-1-trillion-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124372919","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is known by many as a large cap Chinese electric vehicle company.\nHowever, it is actually much more than that and possesses several key competitive advantages.\nWe discuss how these factors could combine with its focus on China to transform it into a $1 trillion mega cap.\n\nLintao Zhang/Getty Images News\nSimilar to how we analyzed Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)in our recent piecePalantir: The Path To A $1 Trillion Valuation, NIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO)is unique in that it is already a large cap stock, but has a massive growth runway that could quite conceivably make it a mega-cap stock and eventually even approach a valuation of $1 Trillion. Here are five reasons why it could successfully achieve that valuation:\n#1. \"Gas Station\" Of The Future\nNIO is a major designer and manufacturer of high-tech electric vehicles in China and as a result competes with the likes of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)in innovative technologies like connectivity, batteries, autonomous mobility, and artificial intelligence.\nNIO's status as an emerging leader in these innovative technologies is perhaps the biggest reason to believe that they could become a multi-bagger from today's already lofty valuation and become a true mega cap.\nFor example, its Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) potential is immense. The company has already begun building out the infrastructure for this business through its recent partnership with Sinopec(NYSE:SHI)through which they aspire to create a 5,000 battery swap station network by 2024. This will give NIO a decisive network advantage in this space just as it begins to really take off in the world's largest electric vehicle market, enabling it to form partnerships with other automakers in the country and drive strong revenue growth from this business alone. Essentially, this would make NIO the number one \"gas station\" company in China as the country and world enter the age of electrification.\nGiven that they possess hundreds of patents in battery swap technology, NIO seems to already have the intellectual property moat necessary to transform this potential into reality. It appears to be merely a matter of time for them to implement and scale now.\n#2. Autonomous Mobility & AI Technology\nNIO also has a strong foothold on autonomous mobility technology thanks to filing nearly 50 patents in the area and boasts AI-powered smart \"cockpits.\"\nGiven that the mobility industry is becoming increasingly software-driven, its intellectual property portfolio here is important as well. Even more important, though, is its competitive positioning to emerge as a long-term leader in the electric vehicle space in China, not only because of the vehicle sales potential it offers, but much more importantly because it is the largest source of consumer data in the world. As a result, NIO will have access to a vast amount of data with which it can improve its A.I. and build one of the best mobility software platforms in the world.\n#3. Government Support\nAnother big reason to believe in NIO's long-term potential stems from the simple fact that it is a leading local company in China in high-priority technology fields. As a result, it will likely enjoy significant support from the Chinese government so that it can serve as a vehicle whereby China can advance its goals towards becoming the pre-eminent global technological superpower.\nThis principle has already played out several times to NIO's benefit.\nFor example, the government recently gave NIO a RMB7 billion (US$1b) bailout to give it the cash it needed to sustain and scale operations.\nAdditionally, government-owned auto manufacturer - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp - has also assisted NIO by providing it with manufacturing services, enabling it to scale with minimal additional capital investment.\nPerhaps the most glaring example of this was how the Chinese state media recently successfully harmed the reputation of TSLA - NIO's top foreign rival - to the point where the Elon Musk-led company had to issue an apology.\nFurthermore, the Chinese government is making a major push to transition the automotive market towards electric vehicles in an effort to battle its huge pollution problem. It is achieving these aims by offering purchase rebates and tax exemptions for the industry, while also placing restrictions on new gasoline and diesel powered vehicle permits.\n#4. Global Expansion\nNIO is also poised to begin expanding its sales into global markets, beginning with Norway. Not only will the company be selling its cars there, but it will be building out local physical and digital infrastructure to create a high quality user-friendly ecosystem to add value to its brand and bolster its competitive positioning. Once it has built significant scale in Norway, it will then have a greater position of strength from which to infiltrate the rest of the European market. Given the geopolitical tensions with the United States at the moment as well as Tesla's dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, Europe seems like a much more logical choice to begin global expansion.\n#5. Crunching The Numbers\nElectric Vehicle sales are already growing exponentially - especially in China - and we expect that number to explode much higher in the years to come.\n\nIn fact, while just barely over 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2017,Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects that number to soar to 60 million by 2040. Not only that, but battery and battery charging infrastructure demand will soar as well.\nIf NIO can seize on its early leadership in China in both the electric vehicle and battery charging infrastructure businesses and also successfully scale its business internationally, there is certainly room for it to achieve a $1 trillion valuation by 2040. For example, its gross margin is expected to be nearly 20% in 2021 and 2022. TSLA's gross, meanwhile, is around 23% and its net margin is roughly half of that, or ~11.5%.\nNIO's BaaS business should also be higher margin given that it could be entirely automated and the actual real estate could be leased instead of owned in order to free up capital for higher return investment elsewhere. With continued scaling in both businesses and overall positive trends in the business with reduced costs across the board through automation and enhanced data analytics, we think gross margins of 25% and net margins of 15% by 2040 are entirely feasible.\nIf NIO were to grab just 7.5% of the global EV market (TSLA's is currently 11%) by 2040, it would be selling ~4.5 million cars per year. We think this share is actually very feasible when you consider that the majority of electric vehicle sales are expected to be in China and that NIO has an inside track on that market given the support it is receiving from the government.\nIf the average sale were for $40,000 per electric vehicle, its profit would be ~$6,000 per vehicle, translating to $27 billion in annual profit from auto sales alone. At a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would put the automotive business at a $810 billion valuation.\nMeanwhile, its BaaS business could likely generate $150 in profits per year per vehicle in its sphere in China. By 2030,it is estimated that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road in China and that EVs will account for 40% of total auto sales. A very conservative estimate is that the number of EVs on the road in China will double to 100 million by 2040. If NIO's BaaS business serves 20% of the electric vehicles in China by 2040, that would equate to an additional $3+ billion in annual net income. Once again applying a 30x price-to-earnings multiple, that would equate to roughly another $100 billion in market valuation.\nMeanwhile, the potential for using its data and autonomous vehicle technology as well as vast BaaS infrastructure to launch an autonomous taxi business network is also immense. While it is hard to know exactly what sort of value this would command as it is hard to project how it would be regulated by the Chinese government and how well consumers would adopt it, it is not a stretch that NIO's scale and capabilities by this point in such a potentially massive market as is offered in China would put the valuation for this business at $100 billion.\nCombining all three businesses gets us to a $1 trillion total valuation under a bullish, but not entirely implausible scenario.\nRisk Analysis\nWhile the path to $1 trillion certainly looks viable, there are numerous risks to consider along the way.\nFirst and foremost, NIO faces a lot of competition from both foreign and domestic companies. TSLA has a large presence in China and overseas and sports a premium brand to go along with an extremely driven and innovative CEO and engineering team. While the Chinese government has helped NIO some already with surviving the TSLA threat, it is unknown the depths that it will have to and be willing to go to continue giving NIO a boost to sustain its competitive standing in its domestic market.\nOf course, NIO also faces competitive pressures from fellow Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers including Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU), which already has a partnership with a government-owned automaker (BAIC Group) to put 1,000 driverless cars on the roads over the next 3 years as a prelude to establishing an autonomous taxi service in China. Facing off against fellow major domestic players who also have government backing poses another threat to NIO because it means that it cannot solely rely on government assistance to survive and thrive.\nOn that same note, it also increases the political risk for NIO. Given that it is not the only horse that China is betting on in the mobility space, if their leadership were to run afoul of the Chinese Communist Party and/or they were to simply lag behind in performance, they could quickly be \"dropped\" by the government and the business could fall into a downward spiral. If Alibaba(NYSE:BABA) could face this, NIO certainly could too. If nothing else, the Chinese government could easily seize some or all of NIO's physical or intellectual property for state use, depriving NIO shareholders of much of their equity value.\nFurthermore, expanding overseas could also be complicated by the fact that China is currently dealing with growing geopolitical tensions with other Asia-Pacific nations, Europe, and the United States. As a result, trade barriers may go up, especially in such high-priority technologies as mobility and autonomous technology. The U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and even India have well-established automobile industries and if they feel threatened by a Chinese competitor, they may well decide to throw up barriers to entry in their markets.\nOf course, as the China hustle pointed out, many Chinese companies have a troubling track record of fudging accounting numbers. As a result, investors should always view Chinese company - to include NIO's - financial numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. While it is very possible - if not likely - that NIO's numbers are completely accurate, it is still a risk that needs to be considered.\nLast, but not least, NIO is currently priced quite expensively as it is still running up massive losses and trades at 71 times expected 2021 gross income. Therefore, the range of potential future outcomes is quite wide and investors could very well be dramatically overpaying by purchasing at today's prices. It should be viewed as a highly speculative investment accordingly.\nInvestor Takeaway\nNIO is currently struggling to turn a profit and has had to be bailed out by the Chinese government. At the same time, its valuation is sky-high. While this might steer many investors away and the stock is indeed a very speculative investment, there is also a plausible path for the company to become a $1 trillion mega cap by 2040 and generate attractive long-term returns for investors as a result.\nWhile not for the faint of heart and certainly not without risks, NIO could continue on its path towards becoming one of the world's pre-eminent mobility companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161162700,"gmtCreate":1623911784700,"gmtModify":1703823329376,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lookout for coming months when they release new products . Stock price will go up","listText":"Lookout for coming months when they release new products . Stock price will go up","text":"Lookout for coming months when they release new products . Stock price will go up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161162700","repostId":"1152604932","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152604932","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623895461,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152604932?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 10:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Forecast For 2025: A Slow Start, Then Strong Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152604932","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give you nine reasons.</li>\n <li>The dangers to Apple’s long-term prospects are mostly event-based, and mostly out of their control.</li>\n <li>I lay out four scenarios and DCF models. You should treat DCF models with the skepticism they deserve.</li>\n <li>With the exception of the best case, they show the stock trading sideways or down through the end of fiscal 2022, then growing fast thereafter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06df668b5536634ebfca099d90d9852\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Long-Term Apple Thesis</b></p>\n<p>I write a lot about Apple (AAPL), 15% of&nbsp;my articles&nbsp;here at Seeking Alpha since I started in 2018. Mostly, I write about what is happening now. For example, the last one was about the&nbsp;implications for Apple&nbsp;should they be forced to back off their App Store rules, whether through courts or regulation.</p>\n<p>Almost a year ago, I began breaking my conclusions about Apple stock into two sections: one for investors who are into Apple for the long haul like I am, and a section for those whose time horizons are much shorter than “I hope to die with these shares.” This article is for the Die With These Shares Crowd.</p>\n<p>I was first an Apple shareholder in 1982, but I sold those shares when Steve Jobs sold his. Since 2005, I have been a continuous shareholder and have never sold a share. Like I said, I hope to die with them. Over the years, the reasons I remain an Apple shareholder have grown:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>They have the most complete and unique tech stack in the world.</li>\n <li>They have the best product development process.</li>\n <li>They have the best corporate organization.</li>\n <li>They are the only megacap who sees privacy and security as a differentiator and marketable feature, not as a cost-center.</li>\n <li>ESG focus years ahead of everyone else.</li>\n <li>The Apple brand</li>\n <li>While the sum of their parts is impressive, the Apple ecosystem makes it so much more.</li>\n <li>When everything is taken into account, iPhone gives a lot of value for the price.</li>\n <li>A cash pile and cash flows to back up their ambitions.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>What it adds up to is a company that is prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. Success in tech is notoriously hard to maintain. IBM (IBM) dominated computers and high end office equipment for 80 years until they didn’t. Sitting here today in 2021, I have a very high level of confidence that this will not be happening to Apple any time soon.</p>\n<p><b>The Tech Stack</b></p>\n<p>One of my favorite factoids about Apple is that despite the fact that their intangible assets would be the most of anyone, they do not list any on their balance sheet. This is where IP and brands go. We’ll get to the brand in a moment, but the core of what makes Apple so durable is their tech stack, now higher and more complete than anyone’s.</p>\n<p>The most important things in the stack are at the base — the Apple chip design unit, which went from nothing to the best in the world in about a decade, and the operating systems, which at their root are all the same thing. They are the only company that designs products and the chips and operating systems that run them, though it looks like Microsoft (MSFT) would like to join them.</p>\n<p><b>Chip Design</b></p>\n<p>Custom chip design is becoming more and more important. Apple was one of the first to recognize the importance of this in making products that are unique in a crowded marketplace. The first iPhone came with a Samsung ARM-based system-on-a-chip (SoC). Less than a year later, Apple bought PA Semi, a low-power SoC designer, for $278 million in cash. Other than the NeXT acquisition that brought back Steve Jobs, this was the best investment Apple ever made.</p>\n<p>The first Apple-designed chip to show up in a product was the A4 in iPhone 4, only two years after the PA Semi acquisition. Quickly, the reaction went from “Apple thinks they can make a SoC?” to “Hey, these things are pretty good.” Now the A-series is widely regarded as the best smartphone SoC.</p>\n<p>The A-series is the most important, but that is only the beginning. There is also the S-series for Apple Watch, H-series for headphones, W-series for wireless connectivity, U-series, which enables AirTags features, and the new M-series for Macs. Within a couple of years, all Apple devices, from AirPods to the Mac Pro will run on Apple Silicon.</p>\n<p>The work they have done here is really showing up in the new M1 Macs, because we have something to compare to — the previous generation of the same model with Intel’s hardware.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99acb1ab262241f7195d5ef491c64ac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>Annotated Apple video screenshot.</span></p>\n<p>By switching to their own silicon, Apple was able to make the same computer, but with a tablet-sized motherboard, a larger screen, and very low power requirements, while still being much faster than the Intel alternative. Already, the next version of macOS will not support some features on Intel Macs, because they lack the machine learning cores. </p>\n<p><b>The Operating Systems</b></p>\n<p>When Apple was developing iPhone there was two ways to go for the operating system: build up from iPod, or shrink Mac OS X. There was an internal contest along parallel tracks, and the shrunken Mac won out. Because of this decision, all the operating systems are essentially the same thing.</p>\n<p>OS X came from NextStep which was the reason for the NeXT acquisition. Apple had not been able to move past what became known as Mac OS Classic with its own internal project, Copeland, and they needed help. Also, the deal came with Steve Jobs.</p>\n<p>NextStep was the first attempt to take a UNIX operating system and put a friendly graphical user interface on top of it. At the core is a UNIX microkernel. As the name implies, this is a small bit of software that manages the most basic functions of the software/hardware interface. Everything else is built in modular blocks of code layered on each other. Each device gets the blocks it needs, and excludes the ones it doesn’t.</p>\n<p>So at root, the microkernel and the core blocks of the operating systems have a ton of overlap, and are very much the same. The original iPhone OS and OS X were so similar that even before Apple released their official iPhone software development kit, or SDK, developers were already making iPhone apps using a slightly modified Mac SDK.</p>\n<p>A good example is networking. All the devices share the same basic networking software, but macOS has wired connection drivers the others don’t. iOS 14 has 5G drivers the others don’t.</p>\n<p><b>The Rest</b></p>\n<p>On top of that rock-solid foundation sits the rest of it. The list is too long to go through entirely. This is a company that&nbsp;patented a pizza box&nbsp;which is only used in Apple’s&nbsp;Caffe Macs&nbsp;employee cafeterias. But these are the parts where we see continuous development every year.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The location/orientation sensor package. Originally for iPhone, this now includes accelerometers, gyroscopes, GPS, altimeters, and the newest additions, LiDAR and the U1 chip, which makes AirTags possible, with more coming. With this combination, Apple devices know where they are in 3D space, orientation, and where they are relative to other objects, especially ones that also have the U1 chip.</li>\n <li>Voice recognition.</li>\n <li>AR.</li>\n <li>On-device machine learning. This includes continuous work on both hardware and software. The A-series and M-series SoCs come loaded with ML cores.</li>\n <li>Audio/video/photo. Again, both hardware and software.</li>\n <li>Maybe their own 5G radio chip. We’ll see.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>What This All Means For 2025</b></p>\n<p>What this means is that when Apple is setting out to build a new device, they begin halfway to the finish line. The basics are there already, and they get to spend their time and energy focusing on the parts that make each device unique. And as we’ll look at in the next section, they still spend more time sweating that last mile than anyone else.</p>\n<p>Let’s look at Apple’s current Big Idea, which is augmenting or replacing the venerable graphical user interface with a combination of AR and voice control, AKA Siri. Apple just hit a big milestone in that journey with the announcement of on-device voice recognition in iOS 15 coming this fall. This is key to their thinking in whatever they are doing with a car, and also of course in AR/VR products. According to rumors, we should see at least some aspects of both of these by the end of 2025.</p>\n<p>But beyond the AR-voice package, each device will get a chip specifically designed for that device, unlike most others who will be using chips designed for a wide range of OEMs. It will overlap a lot with other Apple SoCs, but it will contain a unique combination of units chosen just for that device. When the software team is working on the operating system and apps, most of the under-the-hood work is done. They get to focus on making the unique interface they want for that product. The sensor package will come into the design of either a car or AR glasses, as will all the rest of it.</p>\n<p><b>Product Development</b></p>\n<p>Apple approaches product development differently than every other company. In the first place, they say “no” to many things, even deep into the development process, most we never get to hear about. This allows them to focus on what they do make, and make their products unique, even when competing a crowded space.</p>\n<p>My favorite example here is a negative one, the&nbsp;ill-fated AirPower charging mat. Apple wanted to make a unique offering that was specifically designed around Apple products, but they could not pull off the dual-coil design without overheating. Instead of releasing an undifferentiated product, they killed it, even though it had been pre-announced. This sort of thing happens internally all the time. We got to see the sausage made, just this once.</p>\n<p>But it goes beyond just saying “no” a lot. Apple approaches almost everything in a very slow, deliberate manner:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Focus entirely on the customer experience.</li>\n <li>Don’t let anyone else get in between you and the customer.</li>\n <li>People often don’t know what they want until you show it to them.</li>\n <li>Don’t compete directly against successful incumbents, but figure out what Apple’s unique contribution is, focused on the entire ecosystem.</li>\n <li>Don’t release a new product or feature until you are ready to, no matter what analysts or the tech press say you should do.</li>\n <li>Find a way to dip your toe into the market first, gauge customer reaction, and slowly keep adding year after year.</li>\n <li>Have relatively few SKUs. Keep the product lines relatively simple.</li>\n <li>Don’t be afraid to ditch old but popular technologies.</li>\n <li>As much as possible, own all the key technologies in your devices.</li>\n <li>Hardware and software development are concurrent and work together.</li>\n <li>Do not worry that a new product is displacing another source of revenue.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Sometimes this can hurt an Apple product relative to competition. The HomePod is a good example here. Because of their relative lack of data collection, Siri will never be as capable as Alexa or Google Assistant. So when designing a “smart speaker,” Apple focused more on the speaker part, because they have handicapped themselves on the smart part. This led to an expensive device that didn’t have as much functionality as competing products. But it sounded great. This is a tradeoff they are willing to make, because security and privacy in the ecosystem is a higher level goal than having a smart speaker.</p>\n<p>But as careful and deliberate as Apple is, they can also act blazingly fast when they think they need to. This letter, recently served up by one of my favorite Twitter accounts,Internal Tech Emails,kind of blew my mind.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90176b70c1560583646501f52a11f06\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"683\"></p>\n<p>Bertrand Serlet was the SVP of Software Engineering (“SWE” in the email) at the time. Scott Forstall was the lead on iOS. Steve Jobs you know. What you see here is the birth of the App Store, now worth $16 billion a year in net sales to Apple, decided in an email exchange in less than an hour.</p>\n<p>The timeline here is that iPhone was released in June 2007. In September 2007, the first easily installed app store for jailbroken iPhones, Cydia, was released. It was a warning to Apple that they had to release their own App Store, along with developer tools like they had on the Mac, or risk losing control of the device. Too many people looked at this “phone” and saw a pocket computer.</p>\n<p>This email exchange happened less than a month after Cydia. Serlet laid out everything the App Store was and still is in four quick bullets, made a request for a large amount of resources to pull it off (“whoever we need in SWE”), and asked for a yes-or-no decision. Jobs replied less than an hour later with an absurd timeline (it came out in March, but was announced in January), and approved a now-$16 billion a year business in a single sentence.</p>\n<p>Most of the time they move very slowly and deliberately, making sure everything is exactly right before release. But they can also push something out quickly if it is of strategic importance like App Store. This can also fall on its face at launch, like Apple Maps, which is why Apple prefers to move slowly, all else being equal.</p>\n<p><b>Organization</b></p>\n<p>One of the key foundations of Apple’s success is their amorphous org chart which promotes collaboration and prevents turf wars. On paper, there are three key technical function-based Senior VPs below CEO Tim Cook:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>SVP of Software Engineering, Craig Federighi.</li>\n <li>SVP of Hardware Engineering. This is now John Ternus, after longtime SVP of Hardware, Dan Riccio, moved over to shepherd AR/VR devices full time, underlining their importance.</li>\n <li>SVP of Services, Eddie Cue.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is supplemented by the SVP of Worldwide Marketing position, now filled by Greg Joswiak, after Apple lifer Phil Schiller moved on to semi-retirement as an “Apple Fellow,” whatever that is. The Epic trial made clear that Schiller is very much still involved. Joswiak and Schiller are sort of Ministers-Without-Portfolio, who dip in on all strategic questions, and the guardians of the brand. VP of Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives, Lisa Jackson, has a growing voice in big decisions.</p>\n<p>But as became apparent in a lot of the Apple corporate emails that Epic presented at trial, these people and their main lieutenants are constantly up in each other’s business, and that is by design. The walls between the SVPs are very thin, and no one gets to that position unless they understand that turf wars don’t happen at Apple. But the function-based organization sort of prevents it in the first place.</p>\n<p>When Apple decided to make iPhone, iPod was 35% of Apple’s revenue. But in meetings and email exchanges, there was no SVP of iPod to object loudly that their ox was being gored. There are many companies that would have killed iPhone because of this. Hardware, Software and Services all have big roles in all Apple products, whether it’s iPod, iPhone or anything that has followed. In that email in the previous section, Bertrand Serlet asks for whomever he needs to meet a fast timeline. That means he was pulling people off the Mac OS X team to work on the iPhone SDK and App Store, of course, in concert with Services and Hardware. Phil Schiller also had a lot to say. Again, there was no SVP of Mac to loudly object.</p>\n<p>We now see this collaborative organization and culture expressed as architecture in Apple Park.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51642a2ed19cf03d32baea87ed1d839f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Apple Maps screenshot</span></p>\n<p>At a cost of $4-$5 billion, Apple built a new campus entirely designed around the idea of encouraging collaboration across groups, and random encounters between people who normally would not be interacting. The parking lots are to south out of frame of that screenshot, and everyone enters and exits on those footpaths. Along the way, they have to pass by lots of other offices and groups, or go through the center courtyard, a central place to hang out.</p>\n<p>Apple did not build this so people could&nbsp;work from home.</p>\n<p><b>The Ecosystem</b></p>\n<p>Before we talk about the sum of the parts, let’s start with the parts. These are the rankings that Apple product segments would have had in the&nbsp;2021 Fortune 500&nbsp;as stand-alones (by revenue)</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iPhone at $166 billion in TTM net sales would place at number 12, between Costco (COST) and Cigna (CI).</li>\n <li>Services at $60 billion would place 52 between Albertsons (ACI) and Valero (VLO). That’s about a third of all Google’s revenue (number 9), and about 70% of Facebook’s revenue (number 34).</li>\n <li>Wearables, Home, and Accessories at $35 billion would place at 89 between Deere (DE) and Abbott Labs (ABT). Apple is the largest maker of both watches and headphones now. For comparison, Swatch’s (OTCPK:SWGAF) TTM revenues were $6.3 billion.</li>\n <li>Mac at $34 billion would place at 90 between Abbott and Northwestern Mutual. This is about a third of Dell’s (DELL) revenue (number 28).</li>\n <li>iPad's $30 billion would be the only segment outside the Fortune 100 at number 101, between Tesla (TSLA) and Philip Morris (PM).</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Apple consolidated comes in third by revenue behind Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN), but first in profits, 30% higher than number two Microsoft.</p>\n<p>Of course the ecosystem is what feeds this sales machine. Apple Watch is so popular, in part, because of its tie-in to iPhone and the suite of services, especially now with Fitness+. Apple Music as a stand-alone may not have survived without the tie in to all the rest of Apple. I could keep going on, but the success of everything rests on top of everything else.</p>\n<p>The Walled Garden is a metaphor that people have used to describe the Apple family of products and services. Some, like Apple, put the emphasis on the garden. Others, like Epic, put the emphasis on the walls, like the ones in a prison. But whether people stay in the ecosystem because it’s hard to leave, or just because they like it there is a little immaterial until we get to antitrust, which we’ll talk about in a little bit. It’s a bit of both, of course, that make Apple products so sticky.</p>\n<p>The foundation of this is the wide-and-tall tech stack that lets Apple be the only company that makes PCs, tablets, smartphones, smartwatches and headphones, the SoCs that run them, and also every line of code these devices ship with. These devices can seamlessly work with each other in ways the Windows/Android alternative cannot. Another one of these features is coming with the fall OS updates, Universal Control.</p>\n<p>Every year at WWDC, Apple updates the software part of this, and the deep integration of services also gives Apple an advantage over competitors, which has become an antitrust focus, especially for Spotify (SPOT) in Europe.</p>\n<p>But beyond that, the Apple ecosystem is entirely unique</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft makes PC operating systems and software that sell well, and devices that sell poorly. They have some good consumer services like Xbox gaming, but not many. They are reportedly working on a chip for their Surface products.</li>\n <li>Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) makes a wide range of devices, but not operating systems (unless you count Tizen, now merging with Google's WearOS), or any notable apps or services. They design their own chips, but often use competitors’ in products.</li>\n <li>Google (GOOGL) has a very popular operating system and apps, and is the king of services, but their devices sell poorly. They make data center chips for their own use, but not for consumers.</li>\n <li>Amazon and Facebook (FB) are starting from the bottom-up. Both tried and failed with phones. Amazon has a fork of Android, and low-cost tablets that sell reasonably well. Amazon’s Echo products do well, Facebook’s hardware less so. Both do well with services and apps. The recent Amazon Sidewalk launch with Tile is Amazon trying to build up that ecosystem infrastructure. Amazon has a chip unit for AWS, but neither company has consumer chip design.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Only Apple has the complete package. But there are threats to the ecosystem, and I believe Apple is very likely to have to give up some control, especially with regard to App Store. By 2025 we should expect Apple’s App Store commission rate to drop, but the rest should remain very strong.</p>\n<p><b>Privacy, Security And ESG</b></p>\n<p>I’m lumping these together, because they add up to the same thing: Apple has been able to skate to where the puck is going on important societal issues. They see these things not as costs, but marketable features that burnish the Apple brand.</p>\n<p>I don’t think there’s any reason for me to belabor the security and privacy comparison with Windows and especially Android. Like everyone, Apple does not have a perfect record, and we’ll talk some more in a moment about that.</p>\n<p>But let’s return to that 2007 email, which is like an Apple Rosetta Stone. Serlet's first two bullets are about limits Apple is going to place on developers with the goals of “protect the user,” and “protect the networks.” Only after that does he get to what developers get access to. That’s indicative of all their thinking. Securing the user and networks is the first order priority.</p>\n<p>Here’s a quick list of the security and privacy enhancements they just announced at WWDC:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iCloud VPN at no extra cost to paid iCloud accounts.</li>\n <li>On-device speech recognition.</li>\n <li>Third party Siri devices that do not give those third parties access to your commands. Common commands will execute without leaving the house.</li>\n <li>Further support for iCloud home security video, which does image analysis on-device, and only uploads encrypted video to the cloud.</li>\n <li>House keys and state ID support in Wallet. TSA will accept digital IDs when it becomes available.</li>\n <li>A new App Privacy Report with details on what all apps are doing with their permissions. Google just announced something very similar for Android 12.</li>\n <li>After grimly reminding us that we will all die someday, iOS 15 allows adding of legacy contact who can access your account after you are gone.</li>\n <li>Securely and privately share health data with a provider.</li>\n <li>Protection from email tracking pixels.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>That was just what they announced this year.</p>\n<p>So let’s turn it around and talk about what these things cost Apple. The biggest costs are not direct ones but opportunity costs from their relative lack of data collection. Their services suffer because of this:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The iAd ad network never got off the ground because it denied advertisers the data they were getting elsewhere.</li>\n <li>Similarly, all their attempts at adding social media features have failed for the same reason.</li>\n <li>Siri lags Alexa and Google Assistant, and this also hurt them in the smart speaker space.</li>\n <li>It is harder for them to build massive centralized AI models like Google and Facebook.</li>\n <li>The engagement and targeting algorithms for App Store, News, Music, TV+, Stocks, Arcade and ads would all be better. Apple has tried to be unique here with added human curation.</li>\n <li>They don’t trade user data like other credit card companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Then there are the direct costs, which we have little insight into, but certainly stretches into the billions of dollars. Some of the key parts come under the chip design unit: the Secure Enclave and the machine learning cores. Along with the supporting software these are key units in the A and M series SoCs.</p>\n<p>They currently already do a lot of work in keeping data analysis on-device, leveraging those machine learning cores, and only uploading encrypted data to the cloud using the secure enclave. But the eventual goal I believe is to have all Siri interactions happen on-device, which minimizes what Apple collects about users. As noted, they just took a major step in that direction with on-device voice recognition. To me, that was the single biggest announcement at WWDC. I thought Apple was maybe two years from announcing that.</p>\n<p>When we talk about ESG, the direct Capex costs are growing there. Apple Park is the largest LEED Platinum office building in North America. They are currently working through $4.7 billion in green bonds, building solar, wind and battery storage. Apple currently has all of Apple worldwide corporate operations carbon neutral. But the big, costly project is getting the entire supply chain to carbon neutral. They claim they will do that by 2030.</p>\n<p>In 2021, this is a very effective marketing narrative, and it will only become more so over time. In 2025 these issues will resonate even more deeply.</p>\n<p><b>The Brand</b></p>\n<p>Security, privacy and ESG burnish the brand, but the products are the core of it. Again, Apple does not list intangibles, but&nbsp;Interbrand&nbsp;put the value of the Apple brand at $323 billion in 2020. Amazon was number two at $201 billion. Here’s how Interbrand put it.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Ultimately, Apple’s distinctiveness – or, in fact, uniqueness – isn’t a result of what the brand says, but what it does. It’s Apple’s products, technologies and stores that speak to the organisation’s philosophy of beautiful simplicity and individual empowerment – much more than any campaign could ever do. Inasmuch as many talk about the brand’s aura, Apple has consistently changed what was in people’s minds by changing what was in their hands.\n</blockquote>\n<p>It’s amazing what 25 years of making great products will do. This is important because a strong brand can buoy a company through bad weather. Apple’s brand can weather a long storm.</p>\n<p><b>The iPhone Value Proposition</b></p>\n<p>Apple products are notoriously expensive. But are they? Mac is expensive when you compare to alternatives, but iPhone turns out to be a pretty good value. To begin with, iPhone gets many years of operating system support, in contrast to Android products outside of Google’s poorly-selling Pixel. I have a friend who can afford any phone he wants, but he likes small phones, and hated Jony Ive’s rounded edges. He bought an iPhone SE in March 2016 for $399, and held on to until last December when he traded it in for an iPhone 12 mini. When he traded it in, it was running the current version, iOS 14. If he still owned it, he would be able to upgrade it to iOS 15 in the fall.</p>\n<p>I joke with him that he really extracted maximum value from that iPhone SE, but let’s look at what that looks like for someone in 2021 who is budget conscious. Forgetting about any trade-in subsidies:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>$399 iPhone SE 2nd generation base model</li>\n <li>Paid for with Apple Card. That gets a 3% discount on price, and 24 months of 0% interest.</li>\n <li>Include AppleCare+ for product life to account for an inevitable battery replacement and unforeseeables.</li>\n <li>That’s $19.91 a month for the first 24 months, and $3.29 thereafter.</li>\n <li>Discount future payments by 1.75% a year for inflation.</li>\n <li>Since the phone is already a year old, we’ll shave a year off operating system support, so that’s 6 years.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>For 6 years of worry-free ownership and operating system updates, that’s $599 in 2021 dollars. If you wanted to risk it and not get AppleCare+, it’s only $381 paid over 2 years. This is very comparable to similar offerings from&nbsp;Samsung,OnePlus, and&nbsp;Google. Only Google’s Pixel gets guaranteed OS updates beyond that first year.</p>\n<p>Turning to the flagship models:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a08bc783267a97e370e0a432f3ca6dcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"></p>\n<p>Apple has the most expensive flagship but not by much. The Google Pixel 5 seems like a great deal to me, and I remain surprised at how poorly the Pixels have sold. Also, looking at the green bars, the iPhone 12 Pro Max looks like the best deal of the bunch.</p>\n<p>Only the Pixel gets guaranteed updates beyond that first year. Apple is still supporting 5 models released in the Obama administration. But there’s a lot more that comes with iPhone that doesn’t come with any Android phone.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The best smartphone chip.</li>\n <li>Hardware and software developed together.</li>\n <li>Tight integration with PC, tablet, watch and wireless headphones.</li>\n <li>Far better malware security in App Store.</li>\n <li>Most new apps start on iOS, so Apple users get first crack.</li>\n <li>Native productivity suite.</li>\n <li>Native audio and video editing with surprising capability for phone apps.</li>\n <li>No tracking of location and other data by Google unless you use Google services.</li>\n <li>Convenient service and free classes at an Apple Store near you.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Apple users give up a little bit of freedom, mostly in App Store, for all this, but I think it’s a tradeoff everyone understands at this point. As time wears on, it has become harder and harder for other phone manufacturers to keep up with Apple on both price and features. By 2025, it will be even harder.</p>\n<p><b>Risks To The Story</b></p>\n<p>There are three big threats to the rosy picture I am painting. One is geopolitical, one is regulatory, and one is social.</p>\n<p><b>China</b></p>\n<p>US-China relations are at their lowest ebb since Mao hosted Nixon in 1972. The Biden Administration has pulled back from some of the excesses of the previous Administration, but we seem to be on a long march towards, at a minimum, a bifurcation of the technology world. I do not view this as a positive development for many reasons, but it hits Apple hard.</p>\n<p>Apple is pretty unique in the scale of their dependence on China from both the supply side and the demand side. Let’s start on the supply side.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Substantially all of the Company’s manufacturing is performed in whole or in part by outsourcing partners located primarily in Asia. A significant concentration of this manufacturing is currently performed by a small number of outsourcing partners, often in single locations.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n - Apple annual report “Risk Factors”\n</blockquote>\n<p>From the demand side, it fluctuates, but in the current 3-year iPhone supercycle period, Apple is averaging 16.8% of net sales from Greater China, which includes Taiwan and Hong Kong.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3a5e0338dac745a79fb9839439fa60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\"></p>\n<p><b>Antitrust</b></p>\n<p>I’m not going to dwell on this, since everyone is better acquainted with this threat because of the Epic trial. But there is a movement afoot to refashion antitrust law in a way that would not be favorable to Apple, with the amount of control they like to exercise over the ecosystem. This is in the US courts now, but legislative and regulatory bodies in the US and Europe are turning towards iOS, especially App Store. The threat is not open-ended like it is for Google and Facebook, as it is contained to App Store, 28% of Services net sales and 5.4% of consolidated Apple. But that second number, small as it is, has been growing quickly.</p>\n<p>In contrast to China, I view some sort of reduced take from App Store as inevitable, and the only question is the scale of the reduction. Already, according to Epic trial filings, Apple’s take is probably between 25% and 26% on App Store, not 30% as it is always reported. That is going lower.</p>\n<p>Based on the comments in my articles on the&nbsp;Epic trial, I think Apple shareholders are also underestimating the probability of this happening.</p>\n<p><b>Tall Poppy Syndrome</b></p>\n<p>This is a phrase I just learned from an Australian friend. Wikipedia&nbsp;defines&nbsp;it as</p>\n<blockquote>\n a cultural phenomenon of jealous people holding back or directly attacking those who are perceived to be better than the norm, \"cutting down the tall poppy\".\n</blockquote>\n<p>That’s roughly how my Aussie friend described it to me. People love a comeback story, and that was the Apple narrative for a long time. But Apple is now far too profitable for too long to be the Comeback Kid anymore. Now there seems to be an appetite in the media and society for cutting Apple down to size.</p>\n<p>For example, Washington Post ran an article as I was writing this section that talked about&nbsp;18 scam apps&nbsp;that were in the top 1000 grossing apps on the day Apple was testifying in front of the Senate about App Store.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c268692981ac4739fd7390468e487103\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"><span>Washington Post screenshot</span></p>\n<p>Apple needs to do better. But there is no control group. The article never asks how many scam apps they stopped that day, or how many scam apps were on the Google Play Store or other Android stores that day.Apple claims&nbsp;they stopped $1.5 billion in fraudulent transaction in 2020, 2.4% of all App Store transactions.</p>\n<p>To be clear, the Washington Post article is claiming that Apple is not really curating App Store based on their one-day survey. The total net sales to Apple for these apps was $8.3 million before Apple axed them. Apple is a company that will have around $350 billion in net sales in fiscal 2021, and had something like $16 billion from App Store in calendar 2020. They are not sandbagging their hard-earned reputation over $8.3 million.</p>\n<p>This is sometimes called the “Five Nines Problem.” Five nines is 99.999%, and is sort of the standard for “almost perfect” in a lot of tech. But tech companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, etc. operate at massive scale and they need more nines. App Store has 1.8 million apps, and five nines means 180 malicious apps get through, and maybe 10% of those wind up in the top 1000 grossers. The good news is that Apple does not need the Washington Post to tell them they need to get better at this, but it is not easy.</p>\n<p>This is a more nebulous threat than the others, but the last time I felt like this was when the narrative on Microsoft turned sharply after Windows 95. That ended up in a long battle with the Department of Justice that sucked corporate focus for years.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price Model: Four Scenarios</b></p>\n<p><i>Many of the assumptions for these models are all based off of my deep dives on Apple quarters after they report. The last of them on 2021 Q2is here.</i></p>\n<p>So let’s take all that qualitative data, and try and stuff it through a revenue and DCF model. I recommend you be very skeptical of all models of the future, and think a lot about the underlying assumptions. Models are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. You have the 6,000 words above if you would like to know mine.</p>\n<p>The recent&nbsp;Tesla model from ARK Investment&nbsp;should stand as a cautionary tale for everyone. Anyway, I have posted&nbsp;Excel worksheets&nbsp;to GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.</p>\n<p>Let’s first look at some assumptions common to all four:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.</li>\n <li>Services growth comes off to some extent in all scenarios from reduced App Store growth from legal or regulatory action in the US and Europe.</li>\n <li>Wearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, and at least one new product category, a VR headset.</li>\n <li>Mac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makes, Apple saw a&nbsp;big surge&nbsp;from work-from-home.</li>\n <li>Fiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.</li>\n <li>Other assumptions are in the Excel sheets.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Scenarios:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Large, the most optimistic.</li>\n <li>Medium, my base case.</li>\n <li>Small is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.</li>\n <li>Tiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>In Medium:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>We’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.</li>\n <li>Services growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory because of legal or regulatory action on App Store by 2 pp.</li>\n <li>The rest, as above.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Large and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Boost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.</li>\n <li>Apple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.</li>\n <li>The AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.</p>\n<p><b>Is Apple Stock A Buy Now?</b></p>\n<p><i>Just to double up on the warning: you should treat all models of the future with skepticism, including this one.</i></p>\n<p>This table summarizes the results. Please hit up those Excel sheets if you’d like to frisk the math, or play around with your own assumptions.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5cc7ac9dba0aa62b43bacac07a51c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"164\"></p>\n<p>As you can see, even Small doesn’t do so badly by 2025, and Tiny ends up almost in the green, since the bad events come towards the end. If they were to come earlier, those growth rates would be lower in Tiny.</p>\n<p>But the year-by-year results get to something I’ve been trying to tell Apple shareholders for almost a year now:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0dd5f3db1dee545821469b11fb4f01d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\"></p>\n<p>That chart will explain to you why I started breaking my Apple recommendations down between long and short term. Since the price hit $130 last summer, it was pretty clear to me that except in a best-case scenario, the gains of fiscal 2021 and 2022 were already baked in.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25ce181f892fdb01ae176c551fa19ec2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\"></p>\n<p>Even Large only shows a marginal gain by the end of the fiscal year 2021, and Medium and Small are flat or down through the end of 2022. I’ve used the phrase, “if your time horizon with Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits,” very frequently in the past 8 months. I still mean it.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Forecast For 2025</b></p>\n<p>Let’s zoom into each a bit, starting with the base case, Medium.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b54f0f55b2d743586b10fdcfb3c4bbd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>I've included actual price growth for fiscal 2020 so you can see how we got here. In this view we can think of slow fair value growth from today to the end of fiscal 2022 as averaging out fiscal 2020. If we look at 2019-2022, that’s a 27% CAGR, much more in line with the growth rates in the out years of the model. The model is simply predicting that 2021 and 2022 are baked into today’s price.</p>\n<p>But then you see that the model really picks up steam on the out-years, as Apple’s free cash flow, growing at a 15% 5-year CAGR in Medium, catches up with the price. All together, that’s a 13.8% CAGR over the four and a third years of the model, with a terminal value of $222.</p>\n<p>Of course Large is larger, with an enhanced iPhone cycle from 5G adoption and a little extra boost from the AR glasses at the end of fiscal 2025.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1cb197112556270cfdbb2d293c0082\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>To be clear, I view this scenario as plausible, but not that likely, somewhere around the 25th percentile. In this scenario, 2022 does not show the flat or negative growth rates in 2022 like the others, and this is due to the 5G adoption part of our assumptions. That’s a 20.2% CAGR, and a terminal value of $283.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25c9feb0f396334a8c46a983c8191e37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>This model starts off very slowly, with only an 11% 2019-2022 CAGR compared to 27% for Medium, and down in 2022. But even the Small scenario picks up steam beginning in 2023. That’s an 18% CAGR from 2023-2025. But over the life of the model it is less than half that, 7.9%, a $184 terminal value.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc10da2578deb47fb83ad5c2497fa16f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>Tiny is the same as Small until the events kick in beginning fiscal 2024. 2024 price growth comes way off Small, and takes a dive in 2025. Keep in mind, we are talking about the fair value a year after the event, so the price would likely go down much further first. Anyway, this one winds up roughly at the June 11 close over four years later.</p>\n<p>So there it is: the thing I’ve been telling you for a while now, except with some modeling and pretty charts:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Except in our best case, Apple is likely to trade sideways for a while as cash flows catch up with the share price.</li>\n <li>But absent some very bad events out of Apple’s control, the long term view is still very, very bright, even if they slow down.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Seven thousand words summed up in two bullets.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Forecast For 2025: A Slow Start, Then Strong Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Forecast For 2025: A Slow Start, Then Strong Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 10:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435098-apple-stock-forecast-2025><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give you nine reasons.\nThe dangers to Apple’s long-term prospects are mostly event-based, and mostly out...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435098-apple-stock-forecast-2025\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435098-apple-stock-forecast-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152604932","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give you nine reasons.\nThe dangers to Apple’s long-term prospects are mostly event-based, and mostly out of their control.\nI lay out four scenarios and DCF models. You should treat DCF models with the skepticism they deserve.\nWith the exception of the best case, they show the stock trading sideways or down through the end of fiscal 2022, then growing fast thereafter.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Long-Term Apple Thesis\nI write a lot about Apple (AAPL), 15% of my articles here at Seeking Alpha since I started in 2018. Mostly, I write about what is happening now. For example, the last one was about the implications for Apple should they be forced to back off their App Store rules, whether through courts or regulation.\nAlmost a year ago, I began breaking my conclusions about Apple stock into two sections: one for investors who are into Apple for the long haul like I am, and a section for those whose time horizons are much shorter than “I hope to die with these shares.” This article is for the Die With These Shares Crowd.\nI was first an Apple shareholder in 1982, but I sold those shares when Steve Jobs sold his. Since 2005, I have been a continuous shareholder and have never sold a share. Like I said, I hope to die with them. Over the years, the reasons I remain an Apple shareholder have grown:\n\nThey have the most complete and unique tech stack in the world.\nThey have the best product development process.\nThey have the best corporate organization.\nThey are the only megacap who sees privacy and security as a differentiator and marketable feature, not as a cost-center.\nESG focus years ahead of everyone else.\nThe Apple brand\nWhile the sum of their parts is impressive, the Apple ecosystem makes it so much more.\nWhen everything is taken into account, iPhone gives a lot of value for the price.\nA cash pile and cash flows to back up their ambitions.\n\nWhat it adds up to is a company that is prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. Success in tech is notoriously hard to maintain. IBM (IBM) dominated computers and high end office equipment for 80 years until they didn’t. Sitting here today in 2021, I have a very high level of confidence that this will not be happening to Apple any time soon.\nThe Tech Stack\nOne of my favorite factoids about Apple is that despite the fact that their intangible assets would be the most of anyone, they do not list any on their balance sheet. This is where IP and brands go. We’ll get to the brand in a moment, but the core of what makes Apple so durable is their tech stack, now higher and more complete than anyone’s.\nThe most important things in the stack are at the base — the Apple chip design unit, which went from nothing to the best in the world in about a decade, and the operating systems, which at their root are all the same thing. They are the only company that designs products and the chips and operating systems that run them, though it looks like Microsoft (MSFT) would like to join them.\nChip Design\nCustom chip design is becoming more and more important. Apple was one of the first to recognize the importance of this in making products that are unique in a crowded marketplace. The first iPhone came with a Samsung ARM-based system-on-a-chip (SoC). Less than a year later, Apple bought PA Semi, a low-power SoC designer, for $278 million in cash. Other than the NeXT acquisition that brought back Steve Jobs, this was the best investment Apple ever made.\nThe first Apple-designed chip to show up in a product was the A4 in iPhone 4, only two years after the PA Semi acquisition. Quickly, the reaction went from “Apple thinks they can make a SoC?” to “Hey, these things are pretty good.” Now the A-series is widely regarded as the best smartphone SoC.\nThe A-series is the most important, but that is only the beginning. There is also the S-series for Apple Watch, H-series for headphones, W-series for wireless connectivity, U-series, which enables AirTags features, and the new M-series for Macs. Within a couple of years, all Apple devices, from AirPods to the Mac Pro will run on Apple Silicon.\nThe work they have done here is really showing up in the new M1 Macs, because we have something to compare to — the previous generation of the same model with Intel’s hardware.\nAnnotated Apple video screenshot.\nBy switching to their own silicon, Apple was able to make the same computer, but with a tablet-sized motherboard, a larger screen, and very low power requirements, while still being much faster than the Intel alternative. Already, the next version of macOS will not support some features on Intel Macs, because they lack the machine learning cores. \nThe Operating Systems\nWhen Apple was developing iPhone there was two ways to go for the operating system: build up from iPod, or shrink Mac OS X. There was an internal contest along parallel tracks, and the shrunken Mac won out. Because of this decision, all the operating systems are essentially the same thing.\nOS X came from NextStep which was the reason for the NeXT acquisition. Apple had not been able to move past what became known as Mac OS Classic with its own internal project, Copeland, and they needed help. Also, the deal came with Steve Jobs.\nNextStep was the first attempt to take a UNIX operating system and put a friendly graphical user interface on top of it. At the core is a UNIX microkernel. As the name implies, this is a small bit of software that manages the most basic functions of the software/hardware interface. Everything else is built in modular blocks of code layered on each other. Each device gets the blocks it needs, and excludes the ones it doesn’t.\nSo at root, the microkernel and the core blocks of the operating systems have a ton of overlap, and are very much the same. The original iPhone OS and OS X were so similar that even before Apple released their official iPhone software development kit, or SDK, developers were already making iPhone apps using a slightly modified Mac SDK.\nA good example is networking. All the devices share the same basic networking software, but macOS has wired connection drivers the others don’t. iOS 14 has 5G drivers the others don’t.\nThe Rest\nOn top of that rock-solid foundation sits the rest of it. The list is too long to go through entirely. This is a company that patented a pizza box which is only used in Apple’s Caffe Macs employee cafeterias. But these are the parts where we see continuous development every year.\n\nThe location/orientation sensor package. Originally for iPhone, this now includes accelerometers, gyroscopes, GPS, altimeters, and the newest additions, LiDAR and the U1 chip, which makes AirTags possible, with more coming. With this combination, Apple devices know where they are in 3D space, orientation, and where they are relative to other objects, especially ones that also have the U1 chip.\nVoice recognition.\nAR.\nOn-device machine learning. This includes continuous work on both hardware and software. The A-series and M-series SoCs come loaded with ML cores.\nAudio/video/photo. Again, both hardware and software.\nMaybe their own 5G radio chip. We’ll see.\n\nWhat This All Means For 2025\nWhat this means is that when Apple is setting out to build a new device, they begin halfway to the finish line. The basics are there already, and they get to spend their time and energy focusing on the parts that make each device unique. And as we’ll look at in the next section, they still spend more time sweating that last mile than anyone else.\nLet’s look at Apple’s current Big Idea, which is augmenting or replacing the venerable graphical user interface with a combination of AR and voice control, AKA Siri. Apple just hit a big milestone in that journey with the announcement of on-device voice recognition in iOS 15 coming this fall. This is key to their thinking in whatever they are doing with a car, and also of course in AR/VR products. According to rumors, we should see at least some aspects of both of these by the end of 2025.\nBut beyond the AR-voice package, each device will get a chip specifically designed for that device, unlike most others who will be using chips designed for a wide range of OEMs. It will overlap a lot with other Apple SoCs, but it will contain a unique combination of units chosen just for that device. When the software team is working on the operating system and apps, most of the under-the-hood work is done. They get to focus on making the unique interface they want for that product. The sensor package will come into the design of either a car or AR glasses, as will all the rest of it.\nProduct Development\nApple approaches product development differently than every other company. In the first place, they say “no” to many things, even deep into the development process, most we never get to hear about. This allows them to focus on what they do make, and make their products unique, even when competing a crowded space.\nMy favorite example here is a negative one, the ill-fated AirPower charging mat. Apple wanted to make a unique offering that was specifically designed around Apple products, but they could not pull off the dual-coil design without overheating. Instead of releasing an undifferentiated product, they killed it, even though it had been pre-announced. This sort of thing happens internally all the time. We got to see the sausage made, just this once.\nBut it goes beyond just saying “no” a lot. Apple approaches almost everything in a very slow, deliberate manner:\n\nFocus entirely on the customer experience.\nDon’t let anyone else get in between you and the customer.\nPeople often don’t know what they want until you show it to them.\nDon’t compete directly against successful incumbents, but figure out what Apple’s unique contribution is, focused on the entire ecosystem.\nDon’t release a new product or feature until you are ready to, no matter what analysts or the tech press say you should do.\nFind a way to dip your toe into the market first, gauge customer reaction, and slowly keep adding year after year.\nHave relatively few SKUs. Keep the product lines relatively simple.\nDon’t be afraid to ditch old but popular technologies.\nAs much as possible, own all the key technologies in your devices.\nHardware and software development are concurrent and work together.\nDo not worry that a new product is displacing another source of revenue.\n\nSometimes this can hurt an Apple product relative to competition. The HomePod is a good example here. Because of their relative lack of data collection, Siri will never be as capable as Alexa or Google Assistant. So when designing a “smart speaker,” Apple focused more on the speaker part, because they have handicapped themselves on the smart part. This led to an expensive device that didn’t have as much functionality as competing products. But it sounded great. This is a tradeoff they are willing to make, because security and privacy in the ecosystem is a higher level goal than having a smart speaker.\nBut as careful and deliberate as Apple is, they can also act blazingly fast when they think they need to. This letter, recently served up by one of my favorite Twitter accounts,Internal Tech Emails,kind of blew my mind.\n\nBertrand Serlet was the SVP of Software Engineering (“SWE” in the email) at the time. Scott Forstall was the lead on iOS. Steve Jobs you know. What you see here is the birth of the App Store, now worth $16 billion a year in net sales to Apple, decided in an email exchange in less than an hour.\nThe timeline here is that iPhone was released in June 2007. In September 2007, the first easily installed app store for jailbroken iPhones, Cydia, was released. It was a warning to Apple that they had to release their own App Store, along with developer tools like they had on the Mac, or risk losing control of the device. Too many people looked at this “phone” and saw a pocket computer.\nThis email exchange happened less than a month after Cydia. Serlet laid out everything the App Store was and still is in four quick bullets, made a request for a large amount of resources to pull it off (“whoever we need in SWE”), and asked for a yes-or-no decision. Jobs replied less than an hour later with an absurd timeline (it came out in March, but was announced in January), and approved a now-$16 billion a year business in a single sentence.\nMost of the time they move very slowly and deliberately, making sure everything is exactly right before release. But they can also push something out quickly if it is of strategic importance like App Store. This can also fall on its face at launch, like Apple Maps, which is why Apple prefers to move slowly, all else being equal.\nOrganization\nOne of the key foundations of Apple’s success is their amorphous org chart which promotes collaboration and prevents turf wars. On paper, there are three key technical function-based Senior VPs below CEO Tim Cook:\n\nSVP of Software Engineering, Craig Federighi.\nSVP of Hardware Engineering. This is now John Ternus, after longtime SVP of Hardware, Dan Riccio, moved over to shepherd AR/VR devices full time, underlining their importance.\nSVP of Services, Eddie Cue.\n\nThis is supplemented by the SVP of Worldwide Marketing position, now filled by Greg Joswiak, after Apple lifer Phil Schiller moved on to semi-retirement as an “Apple Fellow,” whatever that is. The Epic trial made clear that Schiller is very much still involved. Joswiak and Schiller are sort of Ministers-Without-Portfolio, who dip in on all strategic questions, and the guardians of the brand. VP of Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives, Lisa Jackson, has a growing voice in big decisions.\nBut as became apparent in a lot of the Apple corporate emails that Epic presented at trial, these people and their main lieutenants are constantly up in each other’s business, and that is by design. The walls between the SVPs are very thin, and no one gets to that position unless they understand that turf wars don’t happen at Apple. But the function-based organization sort of prevents it in the first place.\nWhen Apple decided to make iPhone, iPod was 35% of Apple’s revenue. But in meetings and email exchanges, there was no SVP of iPod to object loudly that their ox was being gored. There are many companies that would have killed iPhone because of this. Hardware, Software and Services all have big roles in all Apple products, whether it’s iPod, iPhone or anything that has followed. In that email in the previous section, Bertrand Serlet asks for whomever he needs to meet a fast timeline. That means he was pulling people off the Mac OS X team to work on the iPhone SDK and App Store, of course, in concert with Services and Hardware. Phil Schiller also had a lot to say. Again, there was no SVP of Mac to loudly object.\nWe now see this collaborative organization and culture expressed as architecture in Apple Park.\nApple Maps screenshot\nAt a cost of $4-$5 billion, Apple built a new campus entirely designed around the idea of encouraging collaboration across groups, and random encounters between people who normally would not be interacting. The parking lots are to south out of frame of that screenshot, and everyone enters and exits on those footpaths. Along the way, they have to pass by lots of other offices and groups, or go through the center courtyard, a central place to hang out.\nApple did not build this so people could work from home.\nThe Ecosystem\nBefore we talk about the sum of the parts, let’s start with the parts. These are the rankings that Apple product segments would have had in the 2021 Fortune 500 as stand-alones (by revenue)\n\niPhone at $166 billion in TTM net sales would place at number 12, between Costco (COST) and Cigna (CI).\nServices at $60 billion would place 52 between Albertsons (ACI) and Valero (VLO). That’s about a third of all Google’s revenue (number 9), and about 70% of Facebook’s revenue (number 34).\nWearables, Home, and Accessories at $35 billion would place at 89 between Deere (DE) and Abbott Labs (ABT). Apple is the largest maker of both watches and headphones now. For comparison, Swatch’s (OTCPK:SWGAF) TTM revenues were $6.3 billion.\nMac at $34 billion would place at 90 between Abbott and Northwestern Mutual. This is about a third of Dell’s (DELL) revenue (number 28).\niPad's $30 billion would be the only segment outside the Fortune 100 at number 101, between Tesla (TSLA) and Philip Morris (PM).\n\nApple consolidated comes in third by revenue behind Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN), but first in profits, 30% higher than number two Microsoft.\nOf course the ecosystem is what feeds this sales machine. Apple Watch is so popular, in part, because of its tie-in to iPhone and the suite of services, especially now with Fitness+. Apple Music as a stand-alone may not have survived without the tie in to all the rest of Apple. I could keep going on, but the success of everything rests on top of everything else.\nThe Walled Garden is a metaphor that people have used to describe the Apple family of products and services. Some, like Apple, put the emphasis on the garden. Others, like Epic, put the emphasis on the walls, like the ones in a prison. But whether people stay in the ecosystem because it’s hard to leave, or just because they like it there is a little immaterial until we get to antitrust, which we’ll talk about in a little bit. It’s a bit of both, of course, that make Apple products so sticky.\nThe foundation of this is the wide-and-tall tech stack that lets Apple be the only company that makes PCs, tablets, smartphones, smartwatches and headphones, the SoCs that run them, and also every line of code these devices ship with. These devices can seamlessly work with each other in ways the Windows/Android alternative cannot. Another one of these features is coming with the fall OS updates, Universal Control.\nEvery year at WWDC, Apple updates the software part of this, and the deep integration of services also gives Apple an advantage over competitors, which has become an antitrust focus, especially for Spotify (SPOT) in Europe.\nBut beyond that, the Apple ecosystem is entirely unique\n\nMicrosoft makes PC operating systems and software that sell well, and devices that sell poorly. They have some good consumer services like Xbox gaming, but not many. They are reportedly working on a chip for their Surface products.\nSamsung (OTC:SSNLF) makes a wide range of devices, but not operating systems (unless you count Tizen, now merging with Google's WearOS), or any notable apps or services. They design their own chips, but often use competitors’ in products.\nGoogle (GOOGL) has a very popular operating system and apps, and is the king of services, but their devices sell poorly. They make data center chips for their own use, but not for consumers.\nAmazon and Facebook (FB) are starting from the bottom-up. Both tried and failed with phones. Amazon has a fork of Android, and low-cost tablets that sell reasonably well. Amazon’s Echo products do well, Facebook’s hardware less so. Both do well with services and apps. The recent Amazon Sidewalk launch with Tile is Amazon trying to build up that ecosystem infrastructure. Amazon has a chip unit for AWS, but neither company has consumer chip design.\n\nOnly Apple has the complete package. But there are threats to the ecosystem, and I believe Apple is very likely to have to give up some control, especially with regard to App Store. By 2025 we should expect Apple’s App Store commission rate to drop, but the rest should remain very strong.\nPrivacy, Security And ESG\nI’m lumping these together, because they add up to the same thing: Apple has been able to skate to where the puck is going on important societal issues. They see these things not as costs, but marketable features that burnish the Apple brand.\nI don’t think there’s any reason for me to belabor the security and privacy comparison with Windows and especially Android. Like everyone, Apple does not have a perfect record, and we’ll talk some more in a moment about that.\nBut let’s return to that 2007 email, which is like an Apple Rosetta Stone. Serlet's first two bullets are about limits Apple is going to place on developers with the goals of “protect the user,” and “protect the networks.” Only after that does he get to what developers get access to. That’s indicative of all their thinking. Securing the user and networks is the first order priority.\nHere’s a quick list of the security and privacy enhancements they just announced at WWDC:\n\niCloud VPN at no extra cost to paid iCloud accounts.\nOn-device speech recognition.\nThird party Siri devices that do not give those third parties access to your commands. Common commands will execute without leaving the house.\nFurther support for iCloud home security video, which does image analysis on-device, and only uploads encrypted video to the cloud.\nHouse keys and state ID support in Wallet. TSA will accept digital IDs when it becomes available.\nA new App Privacy Report with details on what all apps are doing with their permissions. Google just announced something very similar for Android 12.\nAfter grimly reminding us that we will all die someday, iOS 15 allows adding of legacy contact who can access your account after you are gone.\nSecurely and privately share health data with a provider.\nProtection from email tracking pixels.\n\nThat was just what they announced this year.\nSo let’s turn it around and talk about what these things cost Apple. The biggest costs are not direct ones but opportunity costs from their relative lack of data collection. Their services suffer because of this:\n\nThe iAd ad network never got off the ground because it denied advertisers the data they were getting elsewhere.\nSimilarly, all their attempts at adding social media features have failed for the same reason.\nSiri lags Alexa and Google Assistant, and this also hurt them in the smart speaker space.\nIt is harder for them to build massive centralized AI models like Google and Facebook.\nThe engagement and targeting algorithms for App Store, News, Music, TV+, Stocks, Arcade and ads would all be better. Apple has tried to be unique here with added human curation.\nThey don’t trade user data like other credit card companies.\n\nThen there are the direct costs, which we have little insight into, but certainly stretches into the billions of dollars. Some of the key parts come under the chip design unit: the Secure Enclave and the machine learning cores. Along with the supporting software these are key units in the A and M series SoCs.\nThey currently already do a lot of work in keeping data analysis on-device, leveraging those machine learning cores, and only uploading encrypted data to the cloud using the secure enclave. But the eventual goal I believe is to have all Siri interactions happen on-device, which minimizes what Apple collects about users. As noted, they just took a major step in that direction with on-device voice recognition. To me, that was the single biggest announcement at WWDC. I thought Apple was maybe two years from announcing that.\nWhen we talk about ESG, the direct Capex costs are growing there. Apple Park is the largest LEED Platinum office building in North America. They are currently working through $4.7 billion in green bonds, building solar, wind and battery storage. Apple currently has all of Apple worldwide corporate operations carbon neutral. But the big, costly project is getting the entire supply chain to carbon neutral. They claim they will do that by 2030.\nIn 2021, this is a very effective marketing narrative, and it will only become more so over time. In 2025 these issues will resonate even more deeply.\nThe Brand\nSecurity, privacy and ESG burnish the brand, but the products are the core of it. Again, Apple does not list intangibles, but Interbrand put the value of the Apple brand at $323 billion in 2020. Amazon was number two at $201 billion. Here’s how Interbrand put it.\n\n Ultimately, Apple’s distinctiveness – or, in fact, uniqueness – isn’t a result of what the brand says, but what it does. It’s Apple’s products, technologies and stores that speak to the organisation’s philosophy of beautiful simplicity and individual empowerment – much more than any campaign could ever do. Inasmuch as many talk about the brand’s aura, Apple has consistently changed what was in people’s minds by changing what was in their hands.\n\nIt’s amazing what 25 years of making great products will do. This is important because a strong brand can buoy a company through bad weather. Apple’s brand can weather a long storm.\nThe iPhone Value Proposition\nApple products are notoriously expensive. But are they? Mac is expensive when you compare to alternatives, but iPhone turns out to be a pretty good value. To begin with, iPhone gets many years of operating system support, in contrast to Android products outside of Google’s poorly-selling Pixel. I have a friend who can afford any phone he wants, but he likes small phones, and hated Jony Ive’s rounded edges. He bought an iPhone SE in March 2016 for $399, and held on to until last December when he traded it in for an iPhone 12 mini. When he traded it in, it was running the current version, iOS 14. If he still owned it, he would be able to upgrade it to iOS 15 in the fall.\nI joke with him that he really extracted maximum value from that iPhone SE, but let’s look at what that looks like for someone in 2021 who is budget conscious. Forgetting about any trade-in subsidies:\n\n$399 iPhone SE 2nd generation base model\nPaid for with Apple Card. That gets a 3% discount on price, and 24 months of 0% interest.\nInclude AppleCare+ for product life to account for an inevitable battery replacement and unforeseeables.\nThat’s $19.91 a month for the first 24 months, and $3.29 thereafter.\nDiscount future payments by 1.75% a year for inflation.\nSince the phone is already a year old, we’ll shave a year off operating system support, so that’s 6 years.\n\nFor 6 years of worry-free ownership and operating system updates, that’s $599 in 2021 dollars. If you wanted to risk it and not get AppleCare+, it’s only $381 paid over 2 years. This is very comparable to similar offerings from Samsung,OnePlus, and Google. Only Google’s Pixel gets guaranteed OS updates beyond that first year.\nTurning to the flagship models:\n\nApple has the most expensive flagship but not by much. The Google Pixel 5 seems like a great deal to me, and I remain surprised at how poorly the Pixels have sold. Also, looking at the green bars, the iPhone 12 Pro Max looks like the best deal of the bunch.\nOnly the Pixel gets guaranteed updates beyond that first year. Apple is still supporting 5 models released in the Obama administration. But there’s a lot more that comes with iPhone that doesn’t come with any Android phone.\n\nThe best smartphone chip.\nHardware and software developed together.\nTight integration with PC, tablet, watch and wireless headphones.\nFar better malware security in App Store.\nMost new apps start on iOS, so Apple users get first crack.\nNative productivity suite.\nNative audio and video editing with surprising capability for phone apps.\nNo tracking of location and other data by Google unless you use Google services.\nConvenient service and free classes at an Apple Store near you.\n\nApple users give up a little bit of freedom, mostly in App Store, for all this, but I think it’s a tradeoff everyone understands at this point. As time wears on, it has become harder and harder for other phone manufacturers to keep up with Apple on both price and features. By 2025, it will be even harder.\nRisks To The Story\nThere are three big threats to the rosy picture I am painting. One is geopolitical, one is regulatory, and one is social.\nChina\nUS-China relations are at their lowest ebb since Mao hosted Nixon in 1972. The Biden Administration has pulled back from some of the excesses of the previous Administration, but we seem to be on a long march towards, at a minimum, a bifurcation of the technology world. I do not view this as a positive development for many reasons, but it hits Apple hard.\nApple is pretty unique in the scale of their dependence on China from both the supply side and the demand side. Let’s start on the supply side.\n\n Substantially all of the Company’s manufacturing is performed in whole or in part by outsourcing partners located primarily in Asia. A significant concentration of this manufacturing is currently performed by a small number of outsourcing partners, often in single locations.\n\n\n - Apple annual report “Risk Factors”\n\nFrom the demand side, it fluctuates, but in the current 3-year iPhone supercycle period, Apple is averaging 16.8% of net sales from Greater China, which includes Taiwan and Hong Kong.\n\nAntitrust\nI’m not going to dwell on this, since everyone is better acquainted with this threat because of the Epic trial. But there is a movement afoot to refashion antitrust law in a way that would not be favorable to Apple, with the amount of control they like to exercise over the ecosystem. This is in the US courts now, but legislative and regulatory bodies in the US and Europe are turning towards iOS, especially App Store. The threat is not open-ended like it is for Google and Facebook, as it is contained to App Store, 28% of Services net sales and 5.4% of consolidated Apple. But that second number, small as it is, has been growing quickly.\nIn contrast to China, I view some sort of reduced take from App Store as inevitable, and the only question is the scale of the reduction. Already, according to Epic trial filings, Apple’s take is probably between 25% and 26% on App Store, not 30% as it is always reported. That is going lower.\nBased on the comments in my articles on the Epic trial, I think Apple shareholders are also underestimating the probability of this happening.\nTall Poppy Syndrome\nThis is a phrase I just learned from an Australian friend. Wikipedia defines it as\n\n a cultural phenomenon of jealous people holding back or directly attacking those who are perceived to be better than the norm, \"cutting down the tall poppy\".\n\nThat’s roughly how my Aussie friend described it to me. People love a comeback story, and that was the Apple narrative for a long time. But Apple is now far too profitable for too long to be the Comeback Kid anymore. Now there seems to be an appetite in the media and society for cutting Apple down to size.\nFor example, Washington Post ran an article as I was writing this section that talked about 18 scam apps that were in the top 1000 grossing apps on the day Apple was testifying in front of the Senate about App Store.\nWashington Post screenshot\nApple needs to do better. But there is no control group. The article never asks how many scam apps they stopped that day, or how many scam apps were on the Google Play Store or other Android stores that day.Apple claims they stopped $1.5 billion in fraudulent transaction in 2020, 2.4% of all App Store transactions.\nTo be clear, the Washington Post article is claiming that Apple is not really curating App Store based on their one-day survey. The total net sales to Apple for these apps was $8.3 million before Apple axed them. Apple is a company that will have around $350 billion in net sales in fiscal 2021, and had something like $16 billion from App Store in calendar 2020. They are not sandbagging their hard-earned reputation over $8.3 million.\nThis is sometimes called the “Five Nines Problem.” Five nines is 99.999%, and is sort of the standard for “almost perfect” in a lot of tech. But tech companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, etc. operate at massive scale and they need more nines. App Store has 1.8 million apps, and five nines means 180 malicious apps get through, and maybe 10% of those wind up in the top 1000 grossers. The good news is that Apple does not need the Washington Post to tell them they need to get better at this, but it is not easy.\nThis is a more nebulous threat than the others, but the last time I felt like this was when the narrative on Microsoft turned sharply after Windows 95. That ended up in a long battle with the Department of Justice that sucked corporate focus for years.\nApple Stock Price Model: Four Scenarios\nMany of the assumptions for these models are all based off of my deep dives on Apple quarters after they report. The last of them on 2021 Q2is here.\nSo let’s take all that qualitative data, and try and stuff it through a revenue and DCF model. I recommend you be very skeptical of all models of the future, and think a lot about the underlying assumptions. Models are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. You have the 6,000 words above if you would like to know mine.\nThe recent Tesla model from ARK Investment should stand as a cautionary tale for everyone. Anyway, I have posted Excel worksheets to GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.\nLet’s first look at some assumptions common to all four:\n\niPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.\nServices growth comes off to some extent in all scenarios from reduced App Store growth from legal or regulatory action in the US and Europe.\nWearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, and at least one new product category, a VR headset.\nMac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makes, Apple saw a big surge from work-from-home.\nFiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.\nOther assumptions are in the Excel sheets.\n\nScenarios:\n\nLarge, the most optimistic.\nMedium, my base case.\nSmall is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.\nTiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.\n\nIn Medium:\n\nWe’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.\nServices growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory because of legal or regulatory action on App Store by 2 pp.\nThe rest, as above.\n\nLarge and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:\n\nBoost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.\nApple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.\nThe AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.\n\nTiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Now?\nJust to double up on the warning: you should treat all models of the future with skepticism, including this one.\nThis table summarizes the results. Please hit up those Excel sheets if you’d like to frisk the math, or play around with your own assumptions.\n\nAs you can see, even Small doesn’t do so badly by 2025, and Tiny ends up almost in the green, since the bad events come towards the end. If they were to come earlier, those growth rates would be lower in Tiny.\nBut the year-by-year results get to something I’ve been trying to tell Apple shareholders for almost a year now:\n\nThat chart will explain to you why I started breaking my Apple recommendations down between long and short term. Since the price hit $130 last summer, it was pretty clear to me that except in a best-case scenario, the gains of fiscal 2021 and 2022 were already baked in.\n\nEven Large only shows a marginal gain by the end of the fiscal year 2021, and Medium and Small are flat or down through the end of 2022. I’ve used the phrase, “if your time horizon with Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits,” very frequently in the past 8 months. I still mean it.\nApple Stock Forecast For 2025\nLet’s zoom into each a bit, starting with the base case, Medium.\n\nI've included actual price growth for fiscal 2020 so you can see how we got here. In this view we can think of slow fair value growth from today to the end of fiscal 2022 as averaging out fiscal 2020. If we look at 2019-2022, that’s a 27% CAGR, much more in line with the growth rates in the out years of the model. The model is simply predicting that 2021 and 2022 are baked into today’s price.\nBut then you see that the model really picks up steam on the out-years, as Apple’s free cash flow, growing at a 15% 5-year CAGR in Medium, catches up with the price. All together, that’s a 13.8% CAGR over the four and a third years of the model, with a terminal value of $222.\nOf course Large is larger, with an enhanced iPhone cycle from 5G adoption and a little extra boost from the AR glasses at the end of fiscal 2025.\n\nTo be clear, I view this scenario as plausible, but not that likely, somewhere around the 25th percentile. In this scenario, 2022 does not show the flat or negative growth rates in 2022 like the others, and this is due to the 5G adoption part of our assumptions. That’s a 20.2% CAGR, and a terminal value of $283.\n\nThis model starts off very slowly, with only an 11% 2019-2022 CAGR compared to 27% for Medium, and down in 2022. But even the Small scenario picks up steam beginning in 2023. That’s an 18% CAGR from 2023-2025. But over the life of the model it is less than half that, 7.9%, a $184 terminal value.\n\nTiny is the same as Small until the events kick in beginning fiscal 2024. 2024 price growth comes way off Small, and takes a dive in 2025. Keep in mind, we are talking about the fair value a year after the event, so the price would likely go down much further first. Anyway, this one winds up roughly at the June 11 close over four years later.\nSo there it is: the thing I’ve been telling you for a while now, except with some modeling and pretty charts:\n\nExcept in our best case, Apple is likely to trade sideways for a while as cash flows catch up with the share price.\nBut absent some very bad events out of Apple’s control, the long term view is still very, very bright, even if they slow down.\n\nSeven thousand words summed up in two bullets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109588361,"gmtCreate":1619705028953,"gmtModify":1704728349409,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Beaut","listText":"Beaut","text":"Beaut","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109588361","repostId":"1161815718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376472371,"gmtCreate":1619145561493,"gmtModify":1704720341634,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Thank you&nbsp;","text":"Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376472371","repostId":"1137961906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137961906","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1619145390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137961906?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Ocugen Shares Skyrocketed Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137961906","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Ocugen Inc OCGN 42.92% shares soared 42.9% in the regular session and another 11% in the after-hours","content":"<p><b>Ocugen Inc</b>&nbsp;OCGN 42.92%&nbsp;shares soared 42.9% in the regular session and another 11% in the after-hours session on Thursday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5596cd8cf4db1a7bb5b759d4f269eeb\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"459\"></p><p><b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;The shares surged following positive clinical data announced by a partner of Ocugen and a bullish stance taken by Roth Capital analyst Zegbeh Jallah who has a Buy rating on the stock and a 12-month price target of $10.</p><p>Earlier, on Wednesday, Ocugen’s co-development partner Bharat Biotech said that the second interim analysis of Phase 3 of Covaxin, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate, shows itdemonstrated 78% efficiencyin mild, moderate, and severe disease.</p><p>The vaccine is reportedly 100% effective against severe forms of viral illness.</p><p>In a note, Jallah said that Ocugen has sufficient information to support the filing of an Emergency Use Authorization application in the United States.</p><p>“If granted, this could lead to a significant revenue generating opportunity for Ocugen,” wrote the analyst.</p><p>Jallah said that management has confirmed plans to make Covaxin available in the U.S.</p><p>The vaccine’s initial batches will undergo test and release at a U.S. facility approved by the Food and Drug Administration, as per Jallah.</p><p>Meanwhile, Bharat Biotech isramping up manufacturingto produce 700 million COVID-19 vaccine doses annually.</p><p>Earlier in the month, it was reported that Ocugen plans to sell100 million Covaxin dosesin the U.S.</p><p><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;Ocugen shares closed 42.92% higher at $9.29 on Thursday and rose another almost 11% to $10.31 in the after-hours trading.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Ocugen Shares Skyrocketed Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Ocugen Shares Skyrocketed Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-23 10:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Ocugen Inc</b>&nbsp;OCGN 42.92%&nbsp;shares soared 42.9% in the regular session and another 11% in the after-hours session on Thursday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5596cd8cf4db1a7bb5b759d4f269eeb\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"459\"></p><p><b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;The shares surged following positive clinical data announced by a partner of Ocugen and a bullish stance taken by Roth Capital analyst Zegbeh Jallah who has a Buy rating on the stock and a 12-month price target of $10.</p><p>Earlier, on Wednesday, Ocugen’s co-development partner Bharat Biotech said that the second interim analysis of Phase 3 of Covaxin, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate, shows itdemonstrated 78% efficiencyin mild, moderate, and severe disease.</p><p>The vaccine is reportedly 100% effective against severe forms of viral illness.</p><p>In a note, Jallah said that Ocugen has sufficient information to support the filing of an Emergency Use Authorization application in the United States.</p><p>“If granted, this could lead to a significant revenue generating opportunity for Ocugen,” wrote the analyst.</p><p>Jallah said that management has confirmed plans to make Covaxin available in the U.S.</p><p>The vaccine’s initial batches will undergo test and release at a U.S. facility approved by the Food and Drug Administration, as per Jallah.</p><p>Meanwhile, Bharat Biotech isramping up manufacturingto produce 700 million COVID-19 vaccine doses annually.</p><p>Earlier in the month, it was reported that Ocugen plans to sell100 million Covaxin dosesin the U.S.</p><p><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;Ocugen shares closed 42.92% higher at $9.29 on Thursday and rose another almost 11% to $10.31 in the after-hours trading.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137961906","content_text":"Ocugen Inc OCGN 42.92% shares soared 42.9% in the regular session and another 11% in the after-hours session on Thursday.What Happened: The shares surged following positive clinical data announced by a partner of Ocugen and a bullish stance taken by Roth Capital analyst Zegbeh Jallah who has a Buy rating on the stock and a 12-month price target of $10.Earlier, on Wednesday, Ocugen’s co-development partner Bharat Biotech said that the second interim analysis of Phase 3 of Covaxin, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate, shows itdemonstrated 78% efficiencyin mild, moderate, and severe disease.The vaccine is reportedly 100% effective against severe forms of viral illness.In a note, Jallah said that Ocugen has sufficient information to support the filing of an Emergency Use Authorization application in the United States.“If granted, this could lead to a significant revenue generating opportunity for Ocugen,” wrote the analyst.Jallah said that management has confirmed plans to make Covaxin available in the U.S.The vaccine’s initial batches will undergo test and release at a U.S. facility approved by the Food and Drug Administration, as per Jallah.Meanwhile, Bharat Biotech isramping up manufacturingto produce 700 million COVID-19 vaccine doses annually.Earlier in the month, it was reported that Ocugen plans to sell100 million Covaxin dosesin the U.S.Price Action: Ocugen shares closed 42.92% higher at $9.29 on Thursday and rose another almost 11% to $10.31 in the after-hours trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163751510,"gmtCreate":1623894353230,"gmtModify":1703822793037,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Correct","listText":"Correct","text":"Correct","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163751510","repostId":"1152730219","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152730219","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623893214,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152730219?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 09:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ethereum is outperforming bitcoin. Morgan Stanley thinks it knows why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152730219","media":"CNBC","summary":"Cryptocurrency ethereum has outperformed bitcoin so far this year, and Morgan Stanley has given a nu","content":"<div>\n<p>Cryptocurrency ethereum has outperformed bitcoin so far this year, and Morgan Stanley has given a number of reasons why.\nThe “alternative” crypto coin is up around 240% this year, while the world’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/ethereum-is-outperforming-bitcoin-morgan-stanley-thinks-it-knows-why.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ethereum is outperforming bitcoin. Morgan Stanley thinks it knows why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEthereum is outperforming bitcoin. Morgan Stanley thinks it knows why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 09:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/ethereum-is-outperforming-bitcoin-morgan-stanley-thinks-it-knows-why.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cryptocurrency ethereum has outperformed bitcoin so far this year, and Morgan Stanley has given a number of reasons why.\nThe “alternative” crypto coin is up around 240% this year, while the world’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/ethereum-is-outperforming-bitcoin-morgan-stanley-thinks-it-knows-why.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/17/ethereum-is-outperforming-bitcoin-morgan-stanley-thinks-it-knows-why.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1152730219","content_text":"Cryptocurrency ethereum has outperformed bitcoin so far this year, and Morgan Stanley has given a number of reasons why.\nThe “alternative” crypto coin is up around 240% this year, while the world’s best-known cryptocurrency is up less than 38%.\nIt’s been a volatile few months in the crypto world,with bitcoin’s value peaking in April at around $65,000 before falling back to around $30,000, while ether peaked in May at around $4,000 and is now trading around $2,500.\nther is viewed as an alternative to bitcoin. Fans like it for a number of reasons including the fact it underpins many other cryptocurrencies, but it’s yet to be adopted by private institutions in the way that bitcoin has been.\nIt’s important to note that ether’s market cap is less than half that of bitcoin’s, but trading volumes for the smaller coin surged to $600 billion in May — 60% higher than bitcoin volumes, according to Morgan Stanley.\nThere are some key reasons for the outperformance of ether, according to the investment bank, which updated its views on crypto in a note last week.\nEnergy usage\nOne key factor to consider when looking at why ether is currently outperforming bitcoin is energy usage.\n“ETH is considered more ‘green’ than bitcoin,” Morgan Stanley strategist Sheena Shah and equity analysts James Faucette and Betsy Graseck wrote in the note.\nCrypto miners use purpose-built computers to solve complex mathematical equations that effectively enable a coin transaction to go through. The miners are rewarded for their efforts in whatever the coin is that they’re mining. However, the entire process, known as proof of work, is energy intensive because of the amount of power used by the computers.\nTo slash ether’s electricity usage, the Ethereum Foundation is transitioning its process for approving transactions to proof of stake instead of proof of work.\nIn theory, this means all someone will need to become a validator on the network is proof that they hold some ether, or a “stake.” Ultimately, it should remove the need for vast amounts of computing power needed to validate transactions and the Ethereum Foundation claims it will use more than 99.9% less energy than before.\n“Increasing worries about bitcoin’s energy usage made ether relatively more attractive as PoW doesn’t use as much energy to run, at the expense of the security of the transaction,” the Morgan Stanley experts wrote.\nIt’s worth noting there are other coins that already run on proof of stake networks, such as Cardano and Algorand.\nCoins could be destroyed\nEther also has a new “money supply plan” coming in July that will change the way miners are paid, and make ether scarcer.\n“An upgrade to the protocol is expected (called EIP-1559) where the fees that miners are currently paid (in ETH) will be ‘burned’ instead of being given to miners,” wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts. “ETH money supply will be destroyed, increasing its scarcity.”\nDecentralized finance\nOther cryptocurrencies beyond ether also rely on ethereum’s blockchain, which is a growing list of records, called blocks, that are linked together using cryptography.\nIndeed, the vast majority of so-called decentralized finance still runs on the ethereum blockchain, the Morgan Stanley analysts noted.\nBut new competitors are launching, and ethereum is no longer the go-to blockchain for cryptocurrency creators. “Most new coins opted to use an existing blockchain, which until a year ago was mostly ethereum,” said the analysts.\n“Ethereum transaction fees were rising quickly this year as more and more digital assets used the blockchain, hitting the limits of the way ethereum is currently set up to handle transactions,” they added.\nBinance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, built the Binance Smart Chain and made it relatively easy for creators of existing ethereum-based coins to port their coin to the BSC.\nBitcoin’s carbon footprint\nBitcoin has come under significant pressure in recent months amid a growing awareness of its energy usable.\nIt has a carbon footprint comparable to that of New Zealand, producing 36.95 megatons of CO2 annually, according to Digiconomist. This is a major cause for concern in countries around the world which are currently trying to cut their carbon emissions and mitigate climate change.\nTesla CEO Elon Musk said last month that his electric car company will stop accepting bitcoin as a form of payment because of environmental concerns, causing the price of bitcoin to drop 5% in a matter of minutes.Although, he said this week Tesla will start accepting bitcoin again as long as miners use more clean energy.\nMeanwhile China, which has some of the cheapest electricity in the world, is imposing strict new regulations on bitcoin mining. When the Chinese Communist Party said it would “crack down on bitcoin mining and trading behavior” in May the price of bitcoin fell 25% in a few days.\n“China’s crackdown seems tied to China’s newly stated efforts to reduce carbon emissions, with approximately two-thirds to three-quarters of bitcoin mining thought to be done in China, a substantial portion of which uses electricity from coal powered plants,” the analysts wrote.\nThey noted that bitcoin miners in the country are now in the process of moving elsewhere (to use other energy sources) or cashing out, which has not helped prices.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163753711,"gmtCreate":1623894331633,"gmtModify":1703822791747,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noice","listText":"Noice","text":"Noice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163753711","repostId":"1104709957","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132986854,"gmtCreate":1622065767678,"gmtModify":1704178630261,"author":{"id":"3579486738960672","authorId":"3579486738960672","name":"Diggydev","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06f5986ff1dbc96ab8c8fccfad66cb9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579486738960672","authorIdStr":"3579486738960672"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132986854","repostId":"2138511164","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138511164","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622036700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138511164?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 21:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Wait For a Market Crash: These 2 Top Stocks Are On Sale","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138511164","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"At current levels, these two excellent companies are a bargain.","content":"<p>Waiting for a stock to bottom out before picking up its shares at a discount -- a practice known as timing the market -- is almost impossible to pull off consistently. Investors would have to know precisely when shares of a company have reached rock bottom, and for anyone who can always know that in advance, a career in fortune telling might be more lucrative than investing in stocks. Another way to buy stocks at a discount is to wait for a market crash.</p><p>After all, great companies will recover from a downturn, and those smart enough to hold their shares through thick and thin can be handsomely rewarded. If you don't have time to wait for the market to plunge, look for great stocks that have been under pressure of late, but whose businesses and long-term prospects remain intact. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> such companies are <b>Vertex Pharmaceuticals</b> (NASDAQ:VRTX) and <b>Shopify</b> (NYSE:SHOP).</p><h2>1. Vertex Pharmaceuticals</h2><p>Shares of biotech giant Vertex Pharmaceuticals are down a mere 3.9% over the past three months, compared to gains of 7.3% for the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>. But that alone doesn't tell the whole story of the drugmaker's recent woes. In October 2020, Vertex's stock dropped precipitously in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> day after the company announced its decision to discontinue the development of VX-814, a potential treatment for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD).</p><p>The company's decision came after it observed elevated liver enzymes in several AATD patients in a midstage trial for VX-814. But this market reaction may have been a bit overblown. For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, Vertex is known primarily for its drugs that treat the underlying causes of cystic fibrosis (CF), a rare genetic condition that affects a patient's internal organs.</p><p>Vertex's most important CF drug, Trikafta, has a patent that will be valid until 2037. Trikafta can treat about 90% of the CF population. Even if competitors -- some of whom are looking to develop competing CF drugs -- manage to enter this market, thanks to its first-mover advantage, Vertex will likely remain the leader in this space for the foreseeable future.</p><p>Also, while VX-814 may have helped diversify its revenue stream away from Trikafta and other CF medicines, Vertex has other promising pipeline products that could do just that.&nbsp;There is VX-864, another potential drug for AATD, which, according to the company, is \"structurally different\" from VX-814. In other words, the failure of the former is not at all indicative of what may happen to the latter. Vertex said it expects to release data from a phase 2 clinical trial for VX-864 in the first half of this year.</p><p>Then there is CTX001, a potential gene editing therapy for transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT) and sickle cell disease (SCD) the company is developing in collaboration with <b>CRISPR Therapeutics</b>. CTX001 has shown success in preventing vaso-occlusive crises (a side effect of SCD that causes acute pain) in several patients, among other positive results.</p><p>Management believes regulatory submission for CTX001 could happen within the next 18 to 24 months. Further, Vertex is an ambitious company with several more pipeline candidates, including one targeted at type 1 diabetes. And if that seems like too much of a long shot, consider that the biotech generated a little more than $3 billion in free cash flow over the trailing 12-month period.</p><p>If none of its current programs pan out (which seems unlikely), expect Vertex to go out and purchase the rights to others -- or even acquire a smaller biotech with a rich and promising pipeline. The combination of all those factors makes Vertex a biotech stock still worth buying.</p><h2>2. Shopify</h2><p>In the past few months, the market hasn't been kind to high-flying growth stocks. Shares of e-commerce giant Shopify -- a market favorite and growth stock extraordinaire -- are down by 11.38% since late February. How long will the market keep Shopify down? I am not sure, but as a shareholder, I feel just fine. Shopify remains one of my highest conviction holdings for two simple reasons. First, there is the growth of the e-commerce industry.</p><p>Despite many investors and analysts preaching the death of brick and mortar businesses, these businesses are not quite dead yet. Sure, many traditional retailers are struggling, but online transactions still make up a small percentage of total transactions in the U.S. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, e-commerce sales accounted for just 13.4% of total sales during the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>Keep in mind, e-commerce penetration is even lower in many other parts of the world, particularly in less developed nations.&nbsp;In other words, this space can still grow by leaps and bounds, and Shopify and its peers can continue to profit for many years (and potentially decades) to come.</p><p>Then there is Shopify's \"sticky\" business model: that is, one which is constructed in such a way as to retain customers, thereby creating a growing source of recurring revenue. Think about the amount of work it takes to create a storefront from scratch (which is what Shopify offers merchants on its platform), particularly for those who aren't tech or internet-savvy.</p><p>But that's just the first step -- then, a business owner has to attract customers to its shiny, new online presence. Merchants on Shopify's platform also rely on the company for a plethora of other services, including billing, shipping, and more. Once an entrepreneur has gone through all this trouble, the incentive to switch to one of Shopify's competitors is pretty low.</p><p>This isn't just a matter of convenience either, although that's part of it. But the process could actually be harmful to the business. This powerful source of a competitive advantage is why I am confident Shopify will keep most of its clients while continuously adding new ones. And that can only mean great news for the company's revenue, profits, and stock market performance in the long run.</p><p>In five years or so, we may look at the recent market turmoil as a great buying opportunity for Shopify.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Wait For a Market Crash: These 2 Top Stocks Are On Sale</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Wait For a Market Crash: These 2 Top Stocks Are On Sale\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-26 21:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/26/dont-wait-for-a-market-crash-these-2-top-stocks-ar/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Waiting for a stock to bottom out before picking up its shares at a discount -- a practice known as timing the market -- is almost impossible to pull off consistently. Investors would have to know ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/26/dont-wait-for-a-market-crash-these-2-top-stocks-ar/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc","VERX":"Vertex, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/26/dont-wait-for-a-market-crash-these-2-top-stocks-ar/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138511164","content_text":"Waiting for a stock to bottom out before picking up its shares at a discount -- a practice known as timing the market -- is almost impossible to pull off consistently. Investors would have to know precisely when shares of a company have reached rock bottom, and for anyone who can always know that in advance, a career in fortune telling might be more lucrative than investing in stocks. Another way to buy stocks at a discount is to wait for a market crash.After all, great companies will recover from a downturn, and those smart enough to hold their shares through thick and thin can be handsomely rewarded. If you don't have time to wait for the market to plunge, look for great stocks that have been under pressure of late, but whose businesses and long-term prospects remain intact. Two such companies are Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP).1. Vertex PharmaceuticalsShares of biotech giant Vertex Pharmaceuticals are down a mere 3.9% over the past three months, compared to gains of 7.3% for the S&P 500. But that alone doesn't tell the whole story of the drugmaker's recent woes. In October 2020, Vertex's stock dropped precipitously in one day after the company announced its decision to discontinue the development of VX-814, a potential treatment for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD).The company's decision came after it observed elevated liver enzymes in several AATD patients in a midstage trial for VX-814. But this market reaction may have been a bit overblown. For one, Vertex is known primarily for its drugs that treat the underlying causes of cystic fibrosis (CF), a rare genetic condition that affects a patient's internal organs.Vertex's most important CF drug, Trikafta, has a patent that will be valid until 2037. Trikafta can treat about 90% of the CF population. Even if competitors -- some of whom are looking to develop competing CF drugs -- manage to enter this market, thanks to its first-mover advantage, Vertex will likely remain the leader in this space for the foreseeable future.Also, while VX-814 may have helped diversify its revenue stream away from Trikafta and other CF medicines, Vertex has other promising pipeline products that could do just that. There is VX-864, another potential drug for AATD, which, according to the company, is \"structurally different\" from VX-814. In other words, the failure of the former is not at all indicative of what may happen to the latter. Vertex said it expects to release data from a phase 2 clinical trial for VX-864 in the first half of this year.Then there is CTX001, a potential gene editing therapy for transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT) and sickle cell disease (SCD) the company is developing in collaboration with CRISPR Therapeutics. CTX001 has shown success in preventing vaso-occlusive crises (a side effect of SCD that causes acute pain) in several patients, among other positive results.Management believes regulatory submission for CTX001 could happen within the next 18 to 24 months. Further, Vertex is an ambitious company with several more pipeline candidates, including one targeted at type 1 diabetes. And if that seems like too much of a long shot, consider that the biotech generated a little more than $3 billion in free cash flow over the trailing 12-month period.If none of its current programs pan out (which seems unlikely), expect Vertex to go out and purchase the rights to others -- or even acquire a smaller biotech with a rich and promising pipeline. The combination of all those factors makes Vertex a biotech stock still worth buying.2. ShopifyIn the past few months, the market hasn't been kind to high-flying growth stocks. Shares of e-commerce giant Shopify -- a market favorite and growth stock extraordinaire -- are down by 11.38% since late February. How long will the market keep Shopify down? I am not sure, but as a shareholder, I feel just fine. Shopify remains one of my highest conviction holdings for two simple reasons. First, there is the growth of the e-commerce industry.Despite many investors and analysts preaching the death of brick and mortar businesses, these businesses are not quite dead yet. Sure, many traditional retailers are struggling, but online transactions still make up a small percentage of total transactions in the U.S. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, e-commerce sales accounted for just 13.4% of total sales during the first quarter of 2021.Keep in mind, e-commerce penetration is even lower in many other parts of the world, particularly in less developed nations. In other words, this space can still grow by leaps and bounds, and Shopify and its peers can continue to profit for many years (and potentially decades) to come.Then there is Shopify's \"sticky\" business model: that is, one which is constructed in such a way as to retain customers, thereby creating a growing source of recurring revenue. Think about the amount of work it takes to create a storefront from scratch (which is what Shopify offers merchants on its platform), particularly for those who aren't tech or internet-savvy.But that's just the first step -- then, a business owner has to attract customers to its shiny, new online presence. Merchants on Shopify's platform also rely on the company for a plethora of other services, including billing, shipping, and more. Once an entrepreneur has gone through all this trouble, the incentive to switch to one of Shopify's competitors is pretty low.This isn't just a matter of convenience either, although that's part of it. But the process could actually be harmful to the business. This powerful source of a competitive advantage is why I am confident Shopify will keep most of its clients while continuously adding new ones. And that can only mean great news for the company's revenue, profits, and stock market performance in the long run.In five years or so, we may look at the recent market turmoil as a great buying opportunity for Shopify.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}