我是猪八戒 personal page - To The Moon

我是猪八戒

我是猪八戒

No personal profile

27Follow

2Followers

0Topic

0Badge

我是猪八戒

2021-06-24

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

我是猪八戒

2021-06-24

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

Tesla: A Lesson In Humility

我是猪八戒

2021-06-24

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

我是猪八戒

2021-06-23

https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N

我是猪八戒

2021-06-22

Thanks

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

我是猪八戒

2021-06-22

Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N&share=WhatsAPP

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3581576661121192,"uuid":"3581576661121192","gmtCreate":1618483643291,"gmtModify":1625886119255,"name":"我是猪八戒","pinyin":"wszbjwoshizhubajie","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":27,"tweetSize":10,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.16","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":3,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":128570215,"gmtCreate":1624525533837,"gmtModify":1703839327071,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128570215","repostId":"1169013136","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128548211,"gmtCreate":1624525287633,"gmtModify":1703839318106,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128548211","repostId":"1176854050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176854050","pubTimestamp":1624506221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176854050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A Lesson In Humility","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176854050","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.With earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.I see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.Finally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can se","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.</li>\n <li>With earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.</li>\n <li>I see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16088600ba424779ab370711976bff68\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Sometimes in investing, our thesis, no matter how much we believe in it, doesn’t work. I’ve experienced that countless times personally, and I think pretty much everyone who tries their hand at growing capital through the financial markets does as well. The important thing is not to fall in love with a stock and let it destroy your portfolio, and in the case of EV mothership<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA), I certainly had my fair share of practice at letting go of a failed thesis recently.</p>\n<p>Back inearly April, I said it was time to buy Tesla based upon its fairly reliable history of running higher into earnings announcements. The stock was at $691 at the time and did move higher in the next couple of weeks, but as we can see from the below, the move didn’t stick. That caused me to rethink my position in the short-term with Tesla, and now that we are four weeks out from the next earnings report, we have a different situation on our hands.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54fd49361e0720105b3d38a4c4c88fa1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>I’ve annotated several things on the daily chart because the situation is quite interesting for Tesla during this critical period leading up to the next earnings release. The first thing I’ll note is that the accumulation/distribution line remains very strong, having never wavered from its prior levels achieved during the massive rally that took place mostly in 2020. That’s a good sign because the bulls and bears remain roughly equally matched despite a share price that has given the bulls every reason to move on.</p>\n<p>Momentum is more of a mixed picture because the PPO and 14-day RSI are both showing some signs of positive divergence, but also signs that bullish momentum is nowhere near high enough to push the stock into another rally phase. On the divergence side, momentum is gradually moving higher while the share price bounces around, indicating that the worst of the selling is likely done, but that we’re in a digestion period. The 14-day RSI hasn’t yet crested the centerline in earnest, which again means that bullish momentum is fairly weak.</p>\n<p>Overall, I’d say momentum is showing what you might expect at this stage, which is that the selling pressure has abated, but we’re not in rally mode. Yet.</p>\n<p>Finally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can see at the current slope of the line that the triangle will likely resolve near the end of July, which just so happens to coincide with the earnings release. This is a bearish pattern so I don’t want to make everything seem like sunshine and lollipops, but the rest of the chart is mixed, so we’ll have to wait and see.</p>\n<p>The earnings report, in my view, is going to be the catalyst one way or the other for the breakout from the triangle. Which direction it will go is anyone’s guess, but I’d be ready for a wild reaction to the earnings release in July.</p>\n<p>If we look at a weekly chart, I see a much rosier picture.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4525c330221c7768acc84c336cd8ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>We can see that the stock ran up massively in 2020 and took with it the accumulation/distribution line, as well as the momentum indicators, as you’d expect. But since the selling began, we see signs that the stock has simply worked off its overbought conditions, which looks bullish to me.</p>\n<p>The 50-week moving average has served as support during this consolidation phase, and it currently stands at $575, so I’d watch that level if we see more selling. On the plus side, the accumulation/distribution line looks beautiful and again, is supportive of this selling being a digestion period rather than the end of the bull market for Tesla.</p>\n<p>Momentum would seem to support that as well, as the PPO and 14-week RSI are back at centerline support. What happens after this is critical, obviously, but the weekly chart doesn’t show Tesla as breaking down on a longer-term basis. The negative divergences we saw since 2020 began have given way to momentum resetting, which often happens before a new bull phase begins. With the earnings report looming in July, and the daily and weekly charts showing different pictures (at least to my eye), it’s going to be an interesting next four weeks for sure.</p>\n<p><b>Fundamentals still bullish</b></p>\n<p>I’d sum up the chart as having a short-term set of challenges for the bulls, but longer-term, I still see Tesla going higher. On a fundamental basis, I think the conclusion is decidedly more bullish. Let’s start with revenue revisions, which have been nothing short of terrific.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7297a6360a43284ab70d4caf12d206f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>All years are showing uptrends in revenue revisions, and in particular, the out years. Let us not forget that these positive revisions are occurring during a time when countless startups and internal combustion engine OGs like GM (GM), Ford (F) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) are investing tens of billions of dollars to take market share in EVs. None of this is new and it isn’t like the analyst community is surprised by these investments; Tesla is simply on a tremendous upward trajectory when it comes to growing revenue.</p>\n<p>Canaccordpointed out last week that the Model S Plaid Plus delay was likely due to the 4680 cell design not being ready for prime time. That very well could be the case, and it wouldn’t be the first time Tesla disappointed with a time frame it gave investors. Remember therobo-taxi claim?</p>\n<p>At any rate, the company’s lineup continues to resonate with customers and now that capacity constraints should lessen greatly over the coming years – new factories in a few parts of the world will help – the path of least resistance for Tesla is no doubt higher. This will only get better as Tesla can decrease the per-unit cost of things like the batteries so it can better compete with mainstream automakers on price, and become a mainstream automaker rather than a niche manufacturer for the well-heeled.</p>\n<p>Another thing scale is affording Tesla is monumental progress with profit margins. Below we have trailing-twelve-months gross margins, SG&amp;A costs, and EBIT margin as a percentage of revenue.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9effb44d7bda8f3bdb535e80dd1ac0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>All three of these lines are moving in the right direction. Gross margins have been rising thanks to higher sales and production volumes, a trend that should continue so long as sales remain robust. In addition, Tesla is spending much less on an SG&amp;A basis than it used to, which again, is the product of higher sales volume. SG&amp;A used to be in the mid-20% range of revenue, which is unsustainable. Today, it’s only 10%, which means operating margins have gone quite positive, and with room to run in the future.</p>\n<p>Margins have always been an easy thing for the bears to point to, but that is simply no longer the case, and if you have a long holding period, the margin situation is going to work out in the bulls’ favor.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6401d5cd793a93d0ed6d36f911abdb15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>This is all pointing to ever-higher EPS estimates, as we can see above. Analysts continue to try and keep up with Tesla’s upward trajectory, and so long as sales volumes and margins continue their march higher, so will these lines. Again, this is a feather in the cap of the bulls.</p>\n<p><b>Other considerations</b></p>\n<p>Tesla is not for the faint of heart, because it is volatile and we are at a point in the history of the automobile that an EV gold rush of sorts is occurring. Everyone is investing to win once the internal combustion engine is gone, but Tesla has a massive head start on the competition.</p>\n<p>Even so, there are risks to consider. First, Tesla could lose its technology lead over time as legacy manufacturers throw tens of billions of dollars at R&amp;D on battery technology. Tesla is far and away the superior battery maker today, but that does not guarantee it stays that way. To be clear, I don’t see that as a viable outcome in the near-term, but ten years from now? Twenty? It's a risk.</p>\n<p>Another risk is that Tesla uses its stock as a piggy bank, issuing shares to fund R&amp;D, factory construction, and the like.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8f44f661051d87ad3f2906cabe5479d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>The share count has nearly doubled in the past decade, which is pretty ugly from a shareholders’ perspective, as we usually only see this kind of dilution with REITs or BDCs that issue equity capital as a normal course of business. Manufacturing stocks don’t generally do anything like this, but Tesla has made it work. Still, you have to imagine it is possible that over a decade holding period, you’ll be diluted out of half of your ownership in the company. This also creates an uphill battle for EPS as earnings are spread over more and more shares, so I want to be clear this is an unequivocal negative for shareholders. However, let me now point you to what could possibly be the saving grace for this perma-dilution; free cash flow.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0569f35589cc0f82bb006148271df19b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Tesla’s trailing-twelve-months FCF has improved immensely in recent years, as the company is producing massive amounts of operating cash flow that it never did before, which is owed once again to sales volume and margin growth. Tesla has surpassed the point where it needs to constantly issue capital just to survive because it is creating its own through its operations. This is massively important for the bull case because it means the dilution we’ve seen in recent years<i>shouldn’t</i>be necessary any longer.</p>\n<p>Indeed, if we look at net debt, we can see just how much Tesla’s balance sheet has improved, which again supports not having to dilute shareholders to stay afloat.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49fa413fc33c85d7269e987b2c11c888\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Net debt has turned into a net cash position of late, with Tesla having nearly $5 billion in cash and equivalents more than debt. Tesla’s financing situation has improved enormously, and that’s good for those of us that are bullish.</p>\n<p><b>Is it cheap?</b></p>\n<p>Not really. But then again revolutionary companies rarely are. The good news is that the price-to-sales ratio has halved since the peak earlier this year, but at 11x forward revenue, I cannot in good conscience call it cheap.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2d9f38636872d9d508e096e9ac8af8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>However, it is a lot cheaper than it was, and withrevenueslated to rise by more than half this year, and then<i>double</i>again by 2024, you don’t need the multiple to rise for a bullish outlook.</p>\n<p>I’ll reiterate that there are risks to Tesla. The daily chart is leaning slightly bearish with that descending triangle, but we’re heading into the pre-earnings run-up that Tesla<i>usually</i>shines during. The weekly chart is showing signs of digestion rather than rolling over. There are competitive risks that aren’t new and will never go way, but the company is still building great EVs that are resonating with customers. Margins and FCF are booming comparatively speaking, and the stock is at roughly half the valuation it was a few months ago.</p>\n<p>All in all, Tesla almost certainly has a rocky road in front of it, but I’m still bullish given the weight of the evidence.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A Lesson In Humility</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A Lesson In Humility\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.\nWith earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.\nI see Tesla's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1176854050","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.\nWith earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.\nI see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.\n\nAdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nSometimes in investing, our thesis, no matter how much we believe in it, doesn’t work. I’ve experienced that countless times personally, and I think pretty much everyone who tries their hand at growing capital through the financial markets does as well. The important thing is not to fall in love with a stock and let it destroy your portfolio, and in the case of EV mothershipTesla(TSLA), I certainly had my fair share of practice at letting go of a failed thesis recently.\nBack inearly April, I said it was time to buy Tesla based upon its fairly reliable history of running higher into earnings announcements. The stock was at $691 at the time and did move higher in the next couple of weeks, but as we can see from the below, the move didn’t stick. That caused me to rethink my position in the short-term with Tesla, and now that we are four weeks out from the next earnings report, we have a different situation on our hands.\nSource: StockCharts\nI’ve annotated several things on the daily chart because the situation is quite interesting for Tesla during this critical period leading up to the next earnings release. The first thing I’ll note is that the accumulation/distribution line remains very strong, having never wavered from its prior levels achieved during the massive rally that took place mostly in 2020. That’s a good sign because the bulls and bears remain roughly equally matched despite a share price that has given the bulls every reason to move on.\nMomentum is more of a mixed picture because the PPO and 14-day RSI are both showing some signs of positive divergence, but also signs that bullish momentum is nowhere near high enough to push the stock into another rally phase. On the divergence side, momentum is gradually moving higher while the share price bounces around, indicating that the worst of the selling is likely done, but that we’re in a digestion period. The 14-day RSI hasn’t yet crested the centerline in earnest, which again means that bullish momentum is fairly weak.\nOverall, I’d say momentum is showing what you might expect at this stage, which is that the selling pressure has abated, but we’re not in rally mode. Yet.\nFinally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can see at the current slope of the line that the triangle will likely resolve near the end of July, which just so happens to coincide with the earnings release. This is a bearish pattern so I don’t want to make everything seem like sunshine and lollipops, but the rest of the chart is mixed, so we’ll have to wait and see.\nThe earnings report, in my view, is going to be the catalyst one way or the other for the breakout from the triangle. Which direction it will go is anyone’s guess, but I’d be ready for a wild reaction to the earnings release in July.\nIf we look at a weekly chart, I see a much rosier picture.\nSource: StockCharts\nWe can see that the stock ran up massively in 2020 and took with it the accumulation/distribution line, as well as the momentum indicators, as you’d expect. But since the selling began, we see signs that the stock has simply worked off its overbought conditions, which looks bullish to me.\nThe 50-week moving average has served as support during this consolidation phase, and it currently stands at $575, so I’d watch that level if we see more selling. On the plus side, the accumulation/distribution line looks beautiful and again, is supportive of this selling being a digestion period rather than the end of the bull market for Tesla.\nMomentum would seem to support that as well, as the PPO and 14-week RSI are back at centerline support. What happens after this is critical, obviously, but the weekly chart doesn’t show Tesla as breaking down on a longer-term basis. The negative divergences we saw since 2020 began have given way to momentum resetting, which often happens before a new bull phase begins. With the earnings report looming in July, and the daily and weekly charts showing different pictures (at least to my eye), it’s going to be an interesting next four weeks for sure.\nFundamentals still bullish\nI’d sum up the chart as having a short-term set of challenges for the bulls, but longer-term, I still see Tesla going higher. On a fundamental basis, I think the conclusion is decidedly more bullish. Let’s start with revenue revisions, which have been nothing short of terrific.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAll years are showing uptrends in revenue revisions, and in particular, the out years. Let us not forget that these positive revisions are occurring during a time when countless startups and internal combustion engine OGs like GM (GM), Ford (F) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) are investing tens of billions of dollars to take market share in EVs. None of this is new and it isn’t like the analyst community is surprised by these investments; Tesla is simply on a tremendous upward trajectory when it comes to growing revenue.\nCanaccordpointed out last week that the Model S Plaid Plus delay was likely due to the 4680 cell design not being ready for prime time. That very well could be the case, and it wouldn’t be the first time Tesla disappointed with a time frame it gave investors. Remember therobo-taxi claim?\nAt any rate, the company’s lineup continues to resonate with customers and now that capacity constraints should lessen greatly over the coming years – new factories in a few parts of the world will help – the path of least resistance for Tesla is no doubt higher. This will only get better as Tesla can decrease the per-unit cost of things like the batteries so it can better compete with mainstream automakers on price, and become a mainstream automaker rather than a niche manufacturer for the well-heeled.\nAnother thing scale is affording Tesla is monumental progress with profit margins. Below we have trailing-twelve-months gross margins, SG&A costs, and EBIT margin as a percentage of revenue.\nSource: TIKR.com\nAll three of these lines are moving in the right direction. Gross margins have been rising thanks to higher sales and production volumes, a trend that should continue so long as sales remain robust. In addition, Tesla is spending much less on an SG&A basis than it used to, which again, is the product of higher sales volume. SG&A used to be in the mid-20% range of revenue, which is unsustainable. Today, it’s only 10%, which means operating margins have gone quite positive, and with room to run in the future.\nMargins have always been an easy thing for the bears to point to, but that is simply no longer the case, and if you have a long holding period, the margin situation is going to work out in the bulls’ favor.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nThis is all pointing to ever-higher EPS estimates, as we can see above. Analysts continue to try and keep up with Tesla’s upward trajectory, and so long as sales volumes and margins continue their march higher, so will these lines. Again, this is a feather in the cap of the bulls.\nOther considerations\nTesla is not for the faint of heart, because it is volatile and we are at a point in the history of the automobile that an EV gold rush of sorts is occurring. Everyone is investing to win once the internal combustion engine is gone, but Tesla has a massive head start on the competition.\nEven so, there are risks to consider. First, Tesla could lose its technology lead over time as legacy manufacturers throw tens of billions of dollars at R&D on battery technology. Tesla is far and away the superior battery maker today, but that does not guarantee it stays that way. To be clear, I don’t see that as a viable outcome in the near-term, but ten years from now? Twenty? It's a risk.\nAnother risk is that Tesla uses its stock as a piggy bank, issuing shares to fund R&D, factory construction, and the like.\nSource: TIKR.com\nThe share count has nearly doubled in the past decade, which is pretty ugly from a shareholders’ perspective, as we usually only see this kind of dilution with REITs or BDCs that issue equity capital as a normal course of business. Manufacturing stocks don’t generally do anything like this, but Tesla has made it work. Still, you have to imagine it is possible that over a decade holding period, you’ll be diluted out of half of your ownership in the company. This also creates an uphill battle for EPS as earnings are spread over more and more shares, so I want to be clear this is an unequivocal negative for shareholders. However, let me now point you to what could possibly be the saving grace for this perma-dilution; free cash flow.\nSource: TIKR.com\nTesla’s trailing-twelve-months FCF has improved immensely in recent years, as the company is producing massive amounts of operating cash flow that it never did before, which is owed once again to sales volume and margin growth. Tesla has surpassed the point where it needs to constantly issue capital just to survive because it is creating its own through its operations. This is massively important for the bull case because it means the dilution we’ve seen in recent yearsshouldn’tbe necessary any longer.\nIndeed, if we look at net debt, we can see just how much Tesla’s balance sheet has improved, which again supports not having to dilute shareholders to stay afloat.\nSource: TIKR.com\nNet debt has turned into a net cash position of late, with Tesla having nearly $5 billion in cash and equivalents more than debt. Tesla’s financing situation has improved enormously, and that’s good for those of us that are bullish.\nIs it cheap?\nNot really. But then again revolutionary companies rarely are. The good news is that the price-to-sales ratio has halved since the peak earlier this year, but at 11x forward revenue, I cannot in good conscience call it cheap.\nSource: TIKR.com\nHowever, it is a lot cheaper than it was, and withrevenueslated to rise by more than half this year, and thendoubleagain by 2024, you don’t need the multiple to rise for a bullish outlook.\nI’ll reiterate that there are risks to Tesla. The daily chart is leaning slightly bearish with that descending triangle, but we’re heading into the pre-earnings run-up that Teslausuallyshines during. The weekly chart is showing signs of digestion rather than rolling over. There are competitive risks that aren’t new and will never go way, but the company is still building great EVs that are resonating with customers. Margins and FCF are booming comparatively speaking, and the stock is at roughly half the valuation it was a few months ago.\nAll in all, Tesla almost certainly has a rocky road in front of it, but I’m still bullish given the weight of the evidence.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128549503,"gmtCreate":1624525190102,"gmtModify":1703839313866,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128549503","repostId":"2145004822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123440115,"gmtCreate":1624436274237,"gmtModify":1703836624809,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N","listText":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N","text":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123440115","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129118952,"gmtCreate":1624364720876,"gmtModify":1703834434959,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129118952","repostId":"1195130148","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195130148","pubTimestamp":1624361332,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195130148?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195130148","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Powell testifies, Russia wants to open the taps, and a Bitcoin death cross.\nTransitory\nFederal Reser","content":"<p>Powell testifies, Russia wants to open the&nbsp;taps, and a Bitcoin death cross.</p>\n<p><b>Transitory</b></p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’swritten remarks prepared for today’s appearancebefore the&nbsp;House Select Subcommittee on the coronavirus crisis show him sticking to the position that the pickup in inflation is transitory.Investors will be watching&nbsp;from 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time as Powell’s answers to questions from lawmakers may shed more light on his view on thepace of the economic rebound. The appearance comes after regional Fed presidents yesterday expressed&nbsp;mixed views on when the central bank should start talking abouttapering asset purchases.</p>\n<p><b>Pump</b></p>\n<p>Brent crude, the international oil benchmark,traded above $75 a barrelfor the first time in two years this morning. The rise in prices is due to trader expectations of further supply tightness in the coming quarters. In the U.S., the spread between the third and fourth month West Texas Intermediate futures contracts,&nbsp;hit the widest in seven years. Russia, however, is considering proposing that OPEC and&nbsp;allies will&nbsp;increase outputat the next meeting on July 1 with the global oil market currently estimated to be have a3 million barrels per daydeficit. That news was enough to cap today’s rally, with Brent slipping to $74.40 and WTI dropping to $73.08 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Technical signal</b></p>\n<p>The average price of Bitcoin over the past 50 days has fallen below its&nbsp;average price over the past 200 days —&nbsp;a move called a “death cross” by chartists and analysts. While the original cryptocurrency has formed the pattern before and recovered strongly, there is concern about the coindropping below $30,000, with such a move expected to trigger further selling. Bitcoin fell as much as 4.3% overnight and was trading at $31,550 by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time.</p>\n<p><b>Markets mixed</b></p>\n<p>Global equities are mostly&nbsp;quiet ahead of Powell’s testimony. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8% while Japan’s Topix index closed 3.2% higher with the gauge posting its biggest rise in a year after Monday’s selloff. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2% lower at 5:50 a.m. S&amp;P 500 futures were pointing to asmall move into the redat the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.478% andgold slipped.</p>\n<p><b>Coming up...</b></p>\n<p>U.S. existing home sales data for May and June Richmond Fed Manufacturing are at 10:00 a.m. New York City holdsmayoral primary elections.&nbsp;Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and&nbsp;San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak at separate events before Powell’s testimony to Congress begins at 2:00 p.m. Plug Power Inc. reports earnings.</p>\n<p><b>What we've been reading</b></p>\n<p><i>Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The world’s financial centersstruggle back to the office.</li>\n <li>Delta variant gains steam inunder-vaccinated U.S. counties.</li>\n <li>Supreme Court allowsmore compensation for student-athletes.</li>\n <li>Kim’s sister says U.S. has “wrong” views on talks with Pyongyang.</li>\n <li>Tesla unveils supercharging route alongChina’s Silk Road.</li>\n <li>U.K.&nbsp;stilldeeply split on Brexitfive years after referendum.</li>\n <li>Thelithium mine versus the wildflower.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in&nbsp;this morning</b></p>\n<p>The rise of crypto has brought new awareness to fiat currency. It makes sense. The first time in a fish's life where it ever thinks about water is when it's flapping around on a boat deck gasping for oxygen. It's only through the introduction of some seemingly oppositional force that we become aware of the world we're immersed in.</p>\n<p>And this isn't just conjecture. You can see it in the data. AGoogle Trendschart for Bitcoin looks almost exactly like the chart for Fiat Currency.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a21c0bc64fadb423d71e7abd80f10295\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"298\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/471986c0226279332829bd5fb79d9dd7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"303\">We've been swimming all this time in the world of dollars and yen and francs and pounds, and so we haven't had the chance to really think about fiat currencies. And it shows.</p>\n<p>So many people's mental models of money are rooted in gold-standard thinking. People talk all the time, for example, about how we're going to \"debase\" the currency. But that word makes no sense in the fiat realm, as it logically relates to the concept of making a gold coin less pure bydegrading or adulterating its substance, as if the dollar were&nbsp;old Roman coins thathad less and less silver contentover time.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f84a6f21a18c65383599405a3ca9f1c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"440\">Numerous conversations about \"money printing\" or \"how are we going to pay for it?\" have an implied basis in gold standard thinking. Like somehow we're going to run out or be forced to go cap in hand around the world looking for generous donors.</p>\n<p>With any luck the surge in interest in fiat currency -- which again, we have to thank crypto for -- gets us to think more deeply about it and how currencies whose&nbsp;value is rooted in law and public convention have&nbsp;different characteristics than what came before, and what's come after.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFive Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 19:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-06-22/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Powell testifies, Russia wants to open the taps, and a Bitcoin death cross.\nTransitory\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’swritten remarks prepared for today’s appearancebefore the House Select ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-06-22/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-06-22/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195130148","content_text":"Powell testifies, Russia wants to open the taps, and a Bitcoin death cross.\nTransitory\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’swritten remarks prepared for today’s appearancebefore the House Select Subcommittee on the coronavirus crisis show him sticking to the position that the pickup in inflation is transitory.Investors will be watching from 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time as Powell’s answers to questions from lawmakers may shed more light on his view on thepace of the economic rebound. The appearance comes after regional Fed presidents yesterday expressed mixed views on when the central bank should start talking abouttapering asset purchases.\nPump\nBrent crude, the international oil benchmark,traded above $75 a barrelfor the first time in two years this morning. The rise in prices is due to trader expectations of further supply tightness in the coming quarters. In the U.S., the spread between the third and fourth month West Texas Intermediate futures contracts, hit the widest in seven years. Russia, however, is considering proposing that OPEC and allies will increase outputat the next meeting on July 1 with the global oil market currently estimated to be have a3 million barrels per daydeficit. That news was enough to cap today’s rally, with Brent slipping to $74.40 and WTI dropping to $73.08 a barrel.\nTechnical signal\nThe average price of Bitcoin over the past 50 days has fallen below its average price over the past 200 days — a move called a “death cross” by chartists and analysts. While the original cryptocurrency has formed the pattern before and recovered strongly, there is concern about the coindropping below $30,000, with such a move expected to trigger further selling. Bitcoin fell as much as 4.3% overnight and was trading at $31,550 by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time.\nMarkets mixed\nGlobal equities are mostly quiet ahead of Powell’s testimony. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8% while Japan’s Topix index closed 3.2% higher with the gauge posting its biggest rise in a year after Monday’s selloff. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2% lower at 5:50 a.m. S&P 500 futures were pointing to asmall move into the redat the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.478% andgold slipped.\nComing up...\nU.S. existing home sales data for May and June Richmond Fed Manufacturing are at 10:00 a.m. New York City holdsmayoral primary elections. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak at separate events before Powell’s testimony to Congress begins at 2:00 p.m. Plug Power Inc. reports earnings.\nWhat we've been reading\nHere's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.\n\nThe world’s financial centersstruggle back to the office.\nDelta variant gains steam inunder-vaccinated U.S. counties.\nSupreme Court allowsmore compensation for student-athletes.\nKim’s sister says U.S. has “wrong” views on talks with Pyongyang.\nTesla unveils supercharging route alongChina’s Silk Road.\nU.K. stilldeeply split on Brexitfive years after referendum.\nThelithium mine versus the wildflower.\n\nAnd finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning\nThe rise of crypto has brought new awareness to fiat currency. It makes sense. The first time in a fish's life where it ever thinks about water is when it's flapping around on a boat deck gasping for oxygen. It's only through the introduction of some seemingly oppositional force that we become aware of the world we're immersed in.\nAnd this isn't just conjecture. You can see it in the data. AGoogle Trendschart for Bitcoin looks almost exactly like the chart for Fiat Currency.\nWe've been swimming all this time in the world of dollars and yen and francs and pounds, and so we haven't had the chance to really think about fiat currencies. And it shows.\nSo many people's mental models of money are rooted in gold-standard thinking. People talk all the time, for example, about how we're going to \"debase\" the currency. But that word makes no sense in the fiat realm, as it logically relates to the concept of making a gold coin less pure bydegrading or adulterating its substance, as if the dollar were old Roman coins thathad less and less silver contentover time.\nNumerous conversations about \"money printing\" or \"how are we going to pay for it?\" have an implied basis in gold standard thinking. Like somehow we're going to run out or be forced to go cap in hand around the world looking for generous donors.\nWith any luck the surge in interest in fiat currency -- which again, we have to thank crypto for -- gets us to think more deeply about it and how currencies whose value is rooted in law and public convention have different characteristics than what came before, and what's come after.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120744353,"gmtCreate":1624339991972,"gmtModify":1703833942329,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N&amp;share=WhatsAPP","listText":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N&amp;share=WhatsAPP","text":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N&share=WhatsAPP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120744353","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":123440115,"gmtCreate":1624436274237,"gmtModify":1703836624809,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N","listText":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N","text":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123440115","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120744353,"gmtCreate":1624339991972,"gmtModify":1703833942329,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N&amp;share=WhatsAPP","listText":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N&amp;share=WhatsAPP","text":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N&share=WhatsAPP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120744353","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128570215,"gmtCreate":1624525533837,"gmtModify":1703839327071,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128570215","repostId":"1169013136","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128548211,"gmtCreate":1624525287633,"gmtModify":1703839318106,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128548211","repostId":"1176854050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176854050","pubTimestamp":1624506221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176854050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A Lesson In Humility","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176854050","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.With earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.I see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.Finally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can se","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.</li>\n <li>With earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.</li>\n <li>I see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16088600ba424779ab370711976bff68\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Sometimes in investing, our thesis, no matter how much we believe in it, doesn’t work. I’ve experienced that countless times personally, and I think pretty much everyone who tries their hand at growing capital through the financial markets does as well. The important thing is not to fall in love with a stock and let it destroy your portfolio, and in the case of EV mothership<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA), I certainly had my fair share of practice at letting go of a failed thesis recently.</p>\n<p>Back inearly April, I said it was time to buy Tesla based upon its fairly reliable history of running higher into earnings announcements. The stock was at $691 at the time and did move higher in the next couple of weeks, but as we can see from the below, the move didn’t stick. That caused me to rethink my position in the short-term with Tesla, and now that we are four weeks out from the next earnings report, we have a different situation on our hands.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54fd49361e0720105b3d38a4c4c88fa1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>I’ve annotated several things on the daily chart because the situation is quite interesting for Tesla during this critical period leading up to the next earnings release. The first thing I’ll note is that the accumulation/distribution line remains very strong, having never wavered from its prior levels achieved during the massive rally that took place mostly in 2020. That’s a good sign because the bulls and bears remain roughly equally matched despite a share price that has given the bulls every reason to move on.</p>\n<p>Momentum is more of a mixed picture because the PPO and 14-day RSI are both showing some signs of positive divergence, but also signs that bullish momentum is nowhere near high enough to push the stock into another rally phase. On the divergence side, momentum is gradually moving higher while the share price bounces around, indicating that the worst of the selling is likely done, but that we’re in a digestion period. The 14-day RSI hasn’t yet crested the centerline in earnest, which again means that bullish momentum is fairly weak.</p>\n<p>Overall, I’d say momentum is showing what you might expect at this stage, which is that the selling pressure has abated, but we’re not in rally mode. Yet.</p>\n<p>Finally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can see at the current slope of the line that the triangle will likely resolve near the end of July, which just so happens to coincide with the earnings release. This is a bearish pattern so I don’t want to make everything seem like sunshine and lollipops, but the rest of the chart is mixed, so we’ll have to wait and see.</p>\n<p>The earnings report, in my view, is going to be the catalyst one way or the other for the breakout from the triangle. Which direction it will go is anyone’s guess, but I’d be ready for a wild reaction to the earnings release in July.</p>\n<p>If we look at a weekly chart, I see a much rosier picture.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4525c330221c7768acc84c336cd8ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>We can see that the stock ran up massively in 2020 and took with it the accumulation/distribution line, as well as the momentum indicators, as you’d expect. But since the selling began, we see signs that the stock has simply worked off its overbought conditions, which looks bullish to me.</p>\n<p>The 50-week moving average has served as support during this consolidation phase, and it currently stands at $575, so I’d watch that level if we see more selling. On the plus side, the accumulation/distribution line looks beautiful and again, is supportive of this selling being a digestion period rather than the end of the bull market for Tesla.</p>\n<p>Momentum would seem to support that as well, as the PPO and 14-week RSI are back at centerline support. What happens after this is critical, obviously, but the weekly chart doesn’t show Tesla as breaking down on a longer-term basis. The negative divergences we saw since 2020 began have given way to momentum resetting, which often happens before a new bull phase begins. With the earnings report looming in July, and the daily and weekly charts showing different pictures (at least to my eye), it’s going to be an interesting next four weeks for sure.</p>\n<p><b>Fundamentals still bullish</b></p>\n<p>I’d sum up the chart as having a short-term set of challenges for the bulls, but longer-term, I still see Tesla going higher. On a fundamental basis, I think the conclusion is decidedly more bullish. Let’s start with revenue revisions, which have been nothing short of terrific.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7297a6360a43284ab70d4caf12d206f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>All years are showing uptrends in revenue revisions, and in particular, the out years. Let us not forget that these positive revisions are occurring during a time when countless startups and internal combustion engine OGs like GM (GM), Ford (F) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) are investing tens of billions of dollars to take market share in EVs. None of this is new and it isn’t like the analyst community is surprised by these investments; Tesla is simply on a tremendous upward trajectory when it comes to growing revenue.</p>\n<p>Canaccordpointed out last week that the Model S Plaid Plus delay was likely due to the 4680 cell design not being ready for prime time. That very well could be the case, and it wouldn’t be the first time Tesla disappointed with a time frame it gave investors. Remember therobo-taxi claim?</p>\n<p>At any rate, the company’s lineup continues to resonate with customers and now that capacity constraints should lessen greatly over the coming years – new factories in a few parts of the world will help – the path of least resistance for Tesla is no doubt higher. This will only get better as Tesla can decrease the per-unit cost of things like the batteries so it can better compete with mainstream automakers on price, and become a mainstream automaker rather than a niche manufacturer for the well-heeled.</p>\n<p>Another thing scale is affording Tesla is monumental progress with profit margins. Below we have trailing-twelve-months gross margins, SG&amp;A costs, and EBIT margin as a percentage of revenue.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9effb44d7bda8f3bdb535e80dd1ac0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>All three of these lines are moving in the right direction. Gross margins have been rising thanks to higher sales and production volumes, a trend that should continue so long as sales remain robust. In addition, Tesla is spending much less on an SG&amp;A basis than it used to, which again, is the product of higher sales volume. SG&amp;A used to be in the mid-20% range of revenue, which is unsustainable. Today, it’s only 10%, which means operating margins have gone quite positive, and with room to run in the future.</p>\n<p>Margins have always been an easy thing for the bears to point to, but that is simply no longer the case, and if you have a long holding period, the margin situation is going to work out in the bulls’ favor.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6401d5cd793a93d0ed6d36f911abdb15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>This is all pointing to ever-higher EPS estimates, as we can see above. Analysts continue to try and keep up with Tesla’s upward trajectory, and so long as sales volumes and margins continue their march higher, so will these lines. Again, this is a feather in the cap of the bulls.</p>\n<p><b>Other considerations</b></p>\n<p>Tesla is not for the faint of heart, because it is volatile and we are at a point in the history of the automobile that an EV gold rush of sorts is occurring. Everyone is investing to win once the internal combustion engine is gone, but Tesla has a massive head start on the competition.</p>\n<p>Even so, there are risks to consider. First, Tesla could lose its technology lead over time as legacy manufacturers throw tens of billions of dollars at R&amp;D on battery technology. Tesla is far and away the superior battery maker today, but that does not guarantee it stays that way. To be clear, I don’t see that as a viable outcome in the near-term, but ten years from now? Twenty? It's a risk.</p>\n<p>Another risk is that Tesla uses its stock as a piggy bank, issuing shares to fund R&amp;D, factory construction, and the like.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8f44f661051d87ad3f2906cabe5479d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>The share count has nearly doubled in the past decade, which is pretty ugly from a shareholders’ perspective, as we usually only see this kind of dilution with REITs or BDCs that issue equity capital as a normal course of business. Manufacturing stocks don’t generally do anything like this, but Tesla has made it work. Still, you have to imagine it is possible that over a decade holding period, you’ll be diluted out of half of your ownership in the company. This also creates an uphill battle for EPS as earnings are spread over more and more shares, so I want to be clear this is an unequivocal negative for shareholders. However, let me now point you to what could possibly be the saving grace for this perma-dilution; free cash flow.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0569f35589cc0f82bb006148271df19b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Tesla’s trailing-twelve-months FCF has improved immensely in recent years, as the company is producing massive amounts of operating cash flow that it never did before, which is owed once again to sales volume and margin growth. Tesla has surpassed the point where it needs to constantly issue capital just to survive because it is creating its own through its operations. This is massively important for the bull case because it means the dilution we’ve seen in recent years<i>shouldn’t</i>be necessary any longer.</p>\n<p>Indeed, if we look at net debt, we can see just how much Tesla’s balance sheet has improved, which again supports not having to dilute shareholders to stay afloat.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49fa413fc33c85d7269e987b2c11c888\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Net debt has turned into a net cash position of late, with Tesla having nearly $5 billion in cash and equivalents more than debt. Tesla’s financing situation has improved enormously, and that’s good for those of us that are bullish.</p>\n<p><b>Is it cheap?</b></p>\n<p>Not really. But then again revolutionary companies rarely are. The good news is that the price-to-sales ratio has halved since the peak earlier this year, but at 11x forward revenue, I cannot in good conscience call it cheap.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2d9f38636872d9d508e096e9ac8af8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>However, it is a lot cheaper than it was, and withrevenueslated to rise by more than half this year, and then<i>double</i>again by 2024, you don’t need the multiple to rise for a bullish outlook.</p>\n<p>I’ll reiterate that there are risks to Tesla. The daily chart is leaning slightly bearish with that descending triangle, but we’re heading into the pre-earnings run-up that Tesla<i>usually</i>shines during. The weekly chart is showing signs of digestion rather than rolling over. There are competitive risks that aren’t new and will never go way, but the company is still building great EVs that are resonating with customers. Margins and FCF are booming comparatively speaking, and the stock is at roughly half the valuation it was a few months ago.</p>\n<p>All in all, Tesla almost certainly has a rocky road in front of it, but I’m still bullish given the weight of the evidence.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A Lesson In Humility</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A Lesson In Humility\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.\nWith earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.\nI see Tesla's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1176854050","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.\nWith earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.\nI see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.\n\nAdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nSometimes in investing, our thesis, no matter how much we believe in it, doesn’t work. I’ve experienced that countless times personally, and I think pretty much everyone who tries their hand at growing capital through the financial markets does as well. The important thing is not to fall in love with a stock and let it destroy your portfolio, and in the case of EV mothershipTesla(TSLA), I certainly had my fair share of practice at letting go of a failed thesis recently.\nBack inearly April, I said it was time to buy Tesla based upon its fairly reliable history of running higher into earnings announcements. The stock was at $691 at the time and did move higher in the next couple of weeks, but as we can see from the below, the move didn’t stick. That caused me to rethink my position in the short-term with Tesla, and now that we are four weeks out from the next earnings report, we have a different situation on our hands.\nSource: StockCharts\nI’ve annotated several things on the daily chart because the situation is quite interesting for Tesla during this critical period leading up to the next earnings release. The first thing I’ll note is that the accumulation/distribution line remains very strong, having never wavered from its prior levels achieved during the massive rally that took place mostly in 2020. That’s a good sign because the bulls and bears remain roughly equally matched despite a share price that has given the bulls every reason to move on.\nMomentum is more of a mixed picture because the PPO and 14-day RSI are both showing some signs of positive divergence, but also signs that bullish momentum is nowhere near high enough to push the stock into another rally phase. On the divergence side, momentum is gradually moving higher while the share price bounces around, indicating that the worst of the selling is likely done, but that we’re in a digestion period. The 14-day RSI hasn’t yet crested the centerline in earnest, which again means that bullish momentum is fairly weak.\nOverall, I’d say momentum is showing what you might expect at this stage, which is that the selling pressure has abated, but we’re not in rally mode. Yet.\nFinally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can see at the current slope of the line that the triangle will likely resolve near the end of July, which just so happens to coincide with the earnings release. This is a bearish pattern so I don’t want to make everything seem like sunshine and lollipops, but the rest of the chart is mixed, so we’ll have to wait and see.\nThe earnings report, in my view, is going to be the catalyst one way or the other for the breakout from the triangle. Which direction it will go is anyone’s guess, but I’d be ready for a wild reaction to the earnings release in July.\nIf we look at a weekly chart, I see a much rosier picture.\nSource: StockCharts\nWe can see that the stock ran up massively in 2020 and took with it the accumulation/distribution line, as well as the momentum indicators, as you’d expect. But since the selling began, we see signs that the stock has simply worked off its overbought conditions, which looks bullish to me.\nThe 50-week moving average has served as support during this consolidation phase, and it currently stands at $575, so I’d watch that level if we see more selling. On the plus side, the accumulation/distribution line looks beautiful and again, is supportive of this selling being a digestion period rather than the end of the bull market for Tesla.\nMomentum would seem to support that as well, as the PPO and 14-week RSI are back at centerline support. What happens after this is critical, obviously, but the weekly chart doesn’t show Tesla as breaking down on a longer-term basis. The negative divergences we saw since 2020 began have given way to momentum resetting, which often happens before a new bull phase begins. With the earnings report looming in July, and the daily and weekly charts showing different pictures (at least to my eye), it’s going to be an interesting next four weeks for sure.\nFundamentals still bullish\nI’d sum up the chart as having a short-term set of challenges for the bulls, but longer-term, I still see Tesla going higher. On a fundamental basis, I think the conclusion is decidedly more bullish. Let’s start with revenue revisions, which have been nothing short of terrific.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAll years are showing uptrends in revenue revisions, and in particular, the out years. Let us not forget that these positive revisions are occurring during a time when countless startups and internal combustion engine OGs like GM (GM), Ford (F) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) are investing tens of billions of dollars to take market share in EVs. None of this is new and it isn’t like the analyst community is surprised by these investments; Tesla is simply on a tremendous upward trajectory when it comes to growing revenue.\nCanaccordpointed out last week that the Model S Plaid Plus delay was likely due to the 4680 cell design not being ready for prime time. That very well could be the case, and it wouldn’t be the first time Tesla disappointed with a time frame it gave investors. Remember therobo-taxi claim?\nAt any rate, the company’s lineup continues to resonate with customers and now that capacity constraints should lessen greatly over the coming years – new factories in a few parts of the world will help – the path of least resistance for Tesla is no doubt higher. This will only get better as Tesla can decrease the per-unit cost of things like the batteries so it can better compete with mainstream automakers on price, and become a mainstream automaker rather than a niche manufacturer for the well-heeled.\nAnother thing scale is affording Tesla is monumental progress with profit margins. Below we have trailing-twelve-months gross margins, SG&A costs, and EBIT margin as a percentage of revenue.\nSource: TIKR.com\nAll three of these lines are moving in the right direction. Gross margins have been rising thanks to higher sales and production volumes, a trend that should continue so long as sales remain robust. In addition, Tesla is spending much less on an SG&A basis than it used to, which again, is the product of higher sales volume. SG&A used to be in the mid-20% range of revenue, which is unsustainable. Today, it’s only 10%, which means operating margins have gone quite positive, and with room to run in the future.\nMargins have always been an easy thing for the bears to point to, but that is simply no longer the case, and if you have a long holding period, the margin situation is going to work out in the bulls’ favor.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nThis is all pointing to ever-higher EPS estimates, as we can see above. Analysts continue to try and keep up with Tesla’s upward trajectory, and so long as sales volumes and margins continue their march higher, so will these lines. Again, this is a feather in the cap of the bulls.\nOther considerations\nTesla is not for the faint of heart, because it is volatile and we are at a point in the history of the automobile that an EV gold rush of sorts is occurring. Everyone is investing to win once the internal combustion engine is gone, but Tesla has a massive head start on the competition.\nEven so, there are risks to consider. First, Tesla could lose its technology lead over time as legacy manufacturers throw tens of billions of dollars at R&D on battery technology. Tesla is far and away the superior battery maker today, but that does not guarantee it stays that way. To be clear, I don’t see that as a viable outcome in the near-term, but ten years from now? Twenty? It's a risk.\nAnother risk is that Tesla uses its stock as a piggy bank, issuing shares to fund R&D, factory construction, and the like.\nSource: TIKR.com\nThe share count has nearly doubled in the past decade, which is pretty ugly from a shareholders’ perspective, as we usually only see this kind of dilution with REITs or BDCs that issue equity capital as a normal course of business. Manufacturing stocks don’t generally do anything like this, but Tesla has made it work. Still, you have to imagine it is possible that over a decade holding period, you’ll be diluted out of half of your ownership in the company. This also creates an uphill battle for EPS as earnings are spread over more and more shares, so I want to be clear this is an unequivocal negative for shareholders. However, let me now point you to what could possibly be the saving grace for this perma-dilution; free cash flow.\nSource: TIKR.com\nTesla’s trailing-twelve-months FCF has improved immensely in recent years, as the company is producing massive amounts of operating cash flow that it never did before, which is owed once again to sales volume and margin growth. Tesla has surpassed the point where it needs to constantly issue capital just to survive because it is creating its own through its operations. This is massively important for the bull case because it means the dilution we’ve seen in recent yearsshouldn’tbe necessary any longer.\nIndeed, if we look at net debt, we can see just how much Tesla’s balance sheet has improved, which again supports not having to dilute shareholders to stay afloat.\nSource: TIKR.com\nNet debt has turned into a net cash position of late, with Tesla having nearly $5 billion in cash and equivalents more than debt. Tesla’s financing situation has improved enormously, and that’s good for those of us that are bullish.\nIs it cheap?\nNot really. But then again revolutionary companies rarely are. The good news is that the price-to-sales ratio has halved since the peak earlier this year, but at 11x forward revenue, I cannot in good conscience call it cheap.\nSource: TIKR.com\nHowever, it is a lot cheaper than it was, and withrevenueslated to rise by more than half this year, and thendoubleagain by 2024, you don’t need the multiple to rise for a bullish outlook.\nI’ll reiterate that there are risks to Tesla. The daily chart is leaning slightly bearish with that descending triangle, but we’re heading into the pre-earnings run-up that Teslausuallyshines during. The weekly chart is showing signs of digestion rather than rolling over. There are competitive risks that aren’t new and will never go way, but the company is still building great EVs that are resonating with customers. Margins and FCF are booming comparatively speaking, and the stock is at roughly half the valuation it was a few months ago.\nAll in all, Tesla almost certainly has a rocky road in front of it, but I’m still bullish given the weight of the evidence.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128549503,"gmtCreate":1624525190102,"gmtModify":1703839313866,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128549503","repostId":"2145004822","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145004822","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1624524007,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145004822?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 16:40","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong stocks end higher as energy, IT shares gain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145004822","media":"Reuters","summary":"HK->Shanghai Connect daily quota used 7.3%, Shanghai->HK daily quota used 2.3%\nHSI +0.2%, HSCE +0.0%","content":"<ul>\n <li>HK-&gt;Shanghai Connect daily quota used 7.3%, Shanghai-&gt;HK daily quota used 2.3%</li>\n <li>HSI +0.2%, HSCE +0.0%, CSI300 +0.2%</li>\n <li>FTSE China A50 +0.5%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>SHANGHAI, June 24 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks eked out gains on Thursday, helped by energy and IT firms, with investors reassessing U.S. Federal Reserve statements on inflation and looking to upcoming data for direction.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng index ended 65.39 points or 0.23% higher at 28,882.46. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index&nbsp;rose 0.03% to 10,677.31.</p>\n<p>The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares&nbsp;rose 0.8%, the IT sector added 0.5%, the financial sector ended 0.01% higher and the property sector dipped 0.19%.</p>\n<p>The top gainer on the Hang Seng was Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd , which gained 3.35%, while the biggest loser was Techtronic Industries Co Ltd , which fell 2%.</p>\n<p>Europe released strong manufacturing activity data on Wednesday, while figures on ISM manufacturing and U.S. non-farm payrolls are due next week.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, two Fed officials said a period of high inflation in the United States could last longer than anticipated, just a day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell played down rising price pressures.</p>\n<p>Shares of China's property developer Evergrande Group&nbsp;closed up 4.2%, after the company said it had arranged its own funds of HK$13.6 billion ($1.75 billion) to repay bonds due on Monday.</p>\n<p>GCL New Energy Holdings Ltd lost 1.9%, after the U.S. banned imports of solar panel material from Chinese company.</p>\n<p>Around the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index&nbsp;was firmer by 0.15%, while Japan's Nikkei index&nbsp;closed unchanged for the day.</p>\n<p>The yuan was quoted at 6.4738 per U.S. dollar at 0813 GMT, 0.02% firmer than the previous close of 6.4748.</p>\n<p>At close, China's A-shares were trading at a premium of 37.80% over Hong Kong-listed H-shares.</p>\n<p>($1 = 7.7645 Hong Kong dollars)</p>\n<p>(Reporting by the Shanghai Newsroom; editing by Uttaresh.V)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks end higher as energy, IT shares gain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks end higher as energy, IT shares gain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-24 16:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>HK-&gt;Shanghai Connect daily quota used 7.3%, Shanghai-&gt;HK daily quota used 2.3%</li>\n <li>HSI +0.2%, HSCE +0.0%, CSI300 +0.2%</li>\n <li>FTSE China A50 +0.5%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>SHANGHAI, June 24 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks eked out gains on Thursday, helped by energy and IT firms, with investors reassessing U.S. Federal Reserve statements on inflation and looking to upcoming data for direction.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng index ended 65.39 points or 0.23% higher at 28,882.46. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index&nbsp;rose 0.03% to 10,677.31.</p>\n<p>The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares&nbsp;rose 0.8%, the IT sector added 0.5%, the financial sector ended 0.01% higher and the property sector dipped 0.19%.</p>\n<p>The top gainer on the Hang Seng was Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd , which gained 3.35%, while the biggest loser was Techtronic Industries Co Ltd , which fell 2%.</p>\n<p>Europe released strong manufacturing activity data on Wednesday, while figures on ISM manufacturing and U.S. non-farm payrolls are due next week.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, two Fed officials said a period of high inflation in the United States could last longer than anticipated, just a day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell played down rising price pressures.</p>\n<p>Shares of China's property developer Evergrande Group&nbsp;closed up 4.2%, after the company said it had arranged its own funds of HK$13.6 billion ($1.75 billion) to repay bonds due on Monday.</p>\n<p>GCL New Energy Holdings Ltd lost 1.9%, after the U.S. banned imports of solar panel material from Chinese company.</p>\n<p>Around the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index&nbsp;was firmer by 0.15%, while Japan's Nikkei index&nbsp;closed unchanged for the day.</p>\n<p>The yuan was quoted at 6.4738 per U.S. dollar at 0813 GMT, 0.02% firmer than the previous close of 6.4748.</p>\n<p>At close, China's A-shares were trading at a premium of 37.80% over Hong Kong-listed H-shares.</p>\n<p>($1 = 7.7645 Hong Kong dollars)</p>\n<p>(Reporting by the Shanghai Newsroom; editing by Uttaresh.V)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"06666":"恒大物业","06186":"中国飞鹤","00384":"中国燃气","03333":"中国恒大","01024":"快手-W","00968":"信义光能","00669":"创科实业","06618":"京东健康"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145004822","content_text":"HK->Shanghai Connect daily quota used 7.3%, Shanghai->HK daily quota used 2.3%\nHSI +0.2%, HSCE +0.0%, CSI300 +0.2%\nFTSE China A50 +0.5%\n\nSHANGHAI, June 24 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks eked out gains on Thursday, helped by energy and IT firms, with investors reassessing U.S. Federal Reserve statements on inflation and looking to upcoming data for direction.\nThe Hang Seng index ended 65.39 points or 0.23% higher at 28,882.46. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index rose 0.03% to 10,677.31.\nThe sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares rose 0.8%, the IT sector added 0.5%, the financial sector ended 0.01% higher and the property sector dipped 0.19%.\nThe top gainer on the Hang Seng was Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd , which gained 3.35%, while the biggest loser was Techtronic Industries Co Ltd , which fell 2%.\nEurope released strong manufacturing activity data on Wednesday, while figures on ISM manufacturing and U.S. non-farm payrolls are due next week.\nOn Wednesday, two Fed officials said a period of high inflation in the United States could last longer than anticipated, just a day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell played down rising price pressures.\nShares of China's property developer Evergrande Group closed up 4.2%, after the company said it had arranged its own funds of HK$13.6 billion ($1.75 billion) to repay bonds due on Monday.\nGCL New Energy Holdings Ltd lost 1.9%, after the U.S. banned imports of solar panel material from Chinese company.\nAround the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index was firmer by 0.15%, while Japan's Nikkei index closed unchanged for the day.\nThe yuan was quoted at 6.4738 per U.S. dollar at 0813 GMT, 0.02% firmer than the previous close of 6.4748.\nAt close, China's A-shares were trading at a premium of 37.80% over Hong Kong-listed H-shares.\n($1 = 7.7645 Hong Kong dollars)\n(Reporting by the Shanghai Newsroom; editing by Uttaresh.V)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129118952,"gmtCreate":1624364720876,"gmtModify":1703834434959,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129118952","repostId":"1195130148","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}