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hunnejia
2021-05-05
Return likes pls
S&P 500 ends day 0.7% lower, Nasdaq sheds nearly 2% for worst day since March
hunnejia
2021-04-30
Swap comments anyone?
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hunnejia
2021-04-24
Yay!
Alibaba: The End Hasn't Come
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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 ends day 0.7% lower, Nasdaq sheds nearly 2% for worst day since March</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 ends day 0.7% lower, Nasdaq sheds nearly 2% for worst day since March\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-05 08:03 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/03/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-new.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 fell on Tuesday amid selling in Big Tech and other high-growth stocks, erasing the benchmark’s strong start to the month.The broad market index closed the session 0.7% lower at 4,164.66 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/03/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-new.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","CVS":"西维斯健康","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉",".DJI":"道琼斯","CLX":"高乐氏","NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所","PFE":"辉瑞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOG":"谷歌","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","GOOGL":"谷歌A",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","SH":"标普500反向ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","AAPL":"苹果","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/03/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-new.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1199199416","content_text":"The S&P 500 fell on Tuesday amid selling in Big Tech and other high-growth stocks, erasing the benchmark’s strong start to the month.The broad market index closed the session 0.7% lower at 4,164.66 after dropping 1.5% at its low. Pressure on some of the globe’s largest technology companies sent the Nasdaq Composite down 1.9% to 13,633.50 for its worst day since March.Apple, the largest publicly traded company in the U.S., fell 3.5%. Google-parent Alphabet lost 1.6%, Facebook shed 1.3% and electric car maker Tesla dropped 1.7%. Investors did not spare the market’s chipmakers, with Nvidia and Intel losing 3.3% and 0.6%, respectively.The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day in the green thanks to strong performance in Dow Inc and Caterpillar. The 30-stock benchmark closed 19.8 points, or 0.1%, higher to 34,133.03 after dropping more than 300 points at one point Tuesday.Reasons for the downward pressure varied, but strategists cited a mix of concerns about rising inflation, fears the Federal Reserve may have to taper monetary stimulus earlier than telegraphed, and the potential for tax increases in the months ahead.U.S. equities hit their lows of the day following Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’scomments that interest ratesmay have to rise somewhat to keep economy from overheating.Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere wrote that while Tuesday’s modest move in rates may not be a loud siren that investors are worried about the Fed, he nonetheless believes taper fears are playing a role.“Best we can tell supply concerns are a major issue for investors and inflation / inflation expectations are becoming a headwind,” he wrote in an email. “Although Fed futures are pricing in a much faster pace of rate hikes vs what the Fed wants...that is not the story today. The story is inflation and stronger growth numbers leading to even more inflation given supply constraints and what that means for equities.”DeBusschere’s supply-side concerns join those of a growing number of executives and investors who say rising input prices are starting to erode profit margins.Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, said during his company’s annual meeting over the weekend that he is seeing “very substantial inflation” and his companies are raising prices.Other companies, such as Clorox, have said in recent earnings reports that the prices they pay for the materials used to make their products are rising and could ultimately be passed on to customers. Commodity prices, from lumber to corn to palladium, have surged in recent months.Others have said that even blowout earnings results have been unable to quell marketplace jitters. Even accounting for Tuesday’s losses, the S&P 500 is still up more than 10% so far this year.“We have gone through a two to three week period that has seen really good news get little or no reaction in markets,” wrote Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “Investors get uneasy at new highs, and there have been 25 new highs for the S&P 500 so far this year.”“There are concerns that the roaring 20′s economic explosion will take longer than just this summer as people slowly get comfortable getting out and about,” he added. “Equities look expensive on a trailing basis, but not from a forward looking viewpoint.”With the market at all-time highs, investors are torn between playing the reopening with shares like retailers or continuing to bet on Big Tech, which just reported blockbuster earnings.The move in equities followed solid gains for the Dow on Monday as investors piled into shares that would benefit the most from an economic reopening. The 30-stock benchmark rallied more than 200 points, while the S&P 500 inched up 0.3%. Retail stocks led the market advance on Monday with Gap and Macy’s rallying more than 7%.Pfizershares rose slightly following quarterly resultsthat beat expectations and raising its 2021 guidance.CVS Healthshares jumped 4.4% after the pharmacy chain and insurance companyalso raised its guidance.United States Steelpopped 7.9% after Credit Suisseupgradedthe stock to outperform from underperform, saying that the surge in prices for steel made it clear that the industry was in a “super cycle.”“Investors could be getting increasingly disappointed that stocks are not doing well in the face of fantastic earnings news,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103047843,"gmtCreate":1619740930982,"gmtModify":1704271581484,"author":{"id":"3581636051286254","authorId":"3581636051286254","authorIdStr":"3581636051286254","name":"hunnejia","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acc3478e0e8659cb90673b155f884dc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636051286254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Swap comments anyone? ","listText":"Swap comments anyone? ","text":"Swap comments anyone?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103047843","repostId":"2131534297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3565606031340333","authorId":"3565606031340333","authorIdStr":"3565606031340333","name":"YaocH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bd36b13b6f78e9fd2dc60b5637a51b9c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3565606031340333"},"content":"Pls return comment","text":"Pls return comment","html":"Pls return comment"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372496783,"gmtCreate":1619231666142,"gmtModify":1704721603073,"author":{"id":"3581636051286254","authorId":"3581636051286254","authorIdStr":"3581636051286254","name":"hunnejia","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acc3478e0e8659cb90673b155f884dc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636051286254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yay! ","listText":"Yay! ","text":"Yay!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372496783","repostId":"1170805005","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1170805005","pubTimestamp":1619181499,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170805005?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 20:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The End Hasn't Come","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170805005","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba's shares are down a lot from last year's highs, as a reaction to the market worrying about a range of issues.None of them seems to be too material, though, and the fear that has gripped the market has resulted in a quite inexpensive valuation.Alibaba is a high-growth mega-corp that trades like a low-growth company. This provides considerable upside potential in the long run.Alibabahas widely underperformed the broad market and most of its tech peers over the last six months, mainly due t","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba's shares are down a lot from last year's highs, as a reaction to the market worrying about a range of issues.</li>\n <li>None of them seems to be too material, though, and the fear that has gripped the market has resulted in a quite inexpensive valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba is a high-growth mega-corp that trades like a low-growth company. This provides considerable upside potential in the long run.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e22edb23ea75da683065efacc8a826\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)has widely underperformed the broad market and most of its tech peers over the last six months, mainly due to worries about regulatory pressures, anti-trust legalization, etc. Most of those issues have been resolved now, and it looks like Alibaba's value wasn't really damaged to a large degree. Alibaba remains a leading tech & consumer play in high-growth China that continues to trade at a clear discount compared to most US-based tech peers. There are risks, but Alibaba seems attractive at current prices.</p>\n<p><b>Hundreds Of Billions Destroyed</b></p>\n<p>Looking at Alibaba's market capitalization over the last year, there is a very clear decline in how the market values the company over time:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2945ae7abd07b0f49f495052b1d48c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>From a peak in fall 2020, Alibaba's market cap has declined by 25% or a little more than $200 billion to date. The reasoning for that is not based on any type of fundamental slow-down, revenue decline, or similar, showcased by Alibaba's excellent results during the most recent quarters:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeea73c74f3890fadff9c321d70fdd47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"960\"><span>Source: Investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>Not only has Alibaba continued to deliver revenue growth of well above 30% since then, but the company also continued to make progress in attractive high-growth spaces such as cloud computing. Alibaba's cloud unit broke even for the first time since inception as its scale is increasing, which bodes well for the future bottom-line contribution of this unit. Last but not least, Alibaba's free cash flow generation remained strong, and its margins remained attractive.</p>\n<p>Thus the big drop in the value the market ascribes to Alibaba's shares must have been caused by something else, which is market sentiment and psychology. Some negative news around Ant Financial's postponed IPO made the market fear looming regulatory pressures on Alibaba. This was exacerbated by anti-trust and anti-monopoly investigations. These were, of course, negatives, but not to the extent that the market priced them in.</p>\n<p>Looking at Alibaba's market capitalization, which declined by more than $200 billion over the last six months, one could assume that regulators would look to impose a fine of dozens or even hundreds of billions of dollars on Alibaba. That was, however, not the outcome of the investigations.</p>\n<p><b>Things Are Clearing Up For Alibaba</b></p>\n<p>Instead, Chinese regulators gave a slap on the wrist, seeking a$2.75 billion finefrom Alibaba. That sounds like a lot, but it really isn't all that much when we consider Alibaba's immense size:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9777ed30a0bc29e8fdcd0373fe98e366\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"160\"><span>Source: Alibaba filing</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba generated cash of $15.8 billion through its operations during the most recent quarter, or a little over $5 billion a month. The fine that was imposed on the company thus is equal to about two weeks' worth of cash flows. Is that a positive? No, it's a negative. Is it a large negative? In fact, it seems barely noticeable compared to Alibaba's size. We can also look at how this fine compares to Alibaba's cash holding of more than $50 billion, and, once again, we are talking about a very minor fine relative to how the company is doing. What could be a company-breaking fine for any mid-sized business will barely leave a dent in Alibaba's cash holding, and with this issue being resolved now, it is no wonder that shares have jumped following the ruling.</p>\n<p>The other theme that had pressured Alibaba's shares, Ant Financial's regulatory issues, has more or less been resolved as well. Ant Financial will be turned into a financial holding company, there will be some additional oversight, and there were some forced divestments. But this didn't break Ant Financial at all, and it seems questionable whether the hit to Alibaba's value was really all that material, as Alibaba is only a minority holder in Ant Financial anyways.</p>\n<p>Again, these developments that occurred over the last six months aren't positives, but they are not extremely large negatives. A $200+ billion drop in Alibaba's market capitalization seemed way overblown. The good thing about market overreactions, however, is that one can use them to get attractive entry prices (in case markets are overreacting to the downside) or attractive exit prices (in cases where markets are too exuberant).</p>\n<p>In Alibaba's case, the best time to load up on shares was when they traded for around $220 several times over the last six months. They have risen to a somewhat higher level since then, partially due to the market's realization that the $2.75 billion fine wasn't all that material, but Alibaba's shares are still looking quite inexpensive even now.</p>\n<p><b>Alibaba Is An Outstanding Value Among Tech Mega-Caps</b></p>\n<p>Looking at the largest companies in the world, by market capitalization, we see that most of them are tech companies, or at least tech-leaning, such as Tesla (TSLA). Alibaba stands out among those due to a quite low valuation:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35e905980ec6f35fdbb0069b2386e4dd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"521\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>While others trade at 30-40 times net earnings mostly, with Amazon (AMZN) and especially Tesla trading at even higher valuations, Alibaba is valued at a very inexpensive 21 times forward earnings. This also represents a discount compared to broad US equity markets, which are trading for around 25 times forward earnings right now - at least partially due to the heavy weight of companies such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon, and Tesla.</p>\n<p>One may be inclined to conclude that Alibaba is trading at the lowest valuation among those companies due to a below-average growth outlook or below-average fundamentals, but that isn't true.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059736c2aa39c317943026b469331d00\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"504\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>While the other mega-caps have grown by 5%-40% in 2020, with an average of around 20%, Alibaba has delivered revenue growth of 35%-50% in each quarter of the current fiscal year. Clearly, Alibaba is growing faster than the average mega-cap, and most analysts expect that this will not change any time soon.</p>\n<p>Thanks to exposure to the high-growth, online-focused consumer market in its home country China, combined with excellent growth in additional franchises such as its cloud computing unit, Alibaba should be able to deliver compelling growth for the foreseeable future. Alibaba is an excellent play for the ongoing expansion of the Chinese economy, which just delivered record growth on a year-over-year basis.</p>\n<p>With a clean balance sheet thanks to a $50+ billion cash position, strong free cash flows, and attractive margins, Alibaba also seems like a very appropriate choice from a quality perspective. To me, the company doesn't look inferior to the major US tech companies on that basis.</p>\n<p><b>Risks To Consider</b></p>\n<p>There are, of course, still risks that one should consider before investing. It is possible that regulators demand more change from Alibaba, or impose additional fines, although that seems relatively unlikely for now as the current anti-monopoly investigation has just been concluded. Nevertheless, Alibaba is of course dependent to some degree on the goodwill of Chinese regulators and politicians.</p>\n<p>On top of that, due to a consumer-focused business model, Alibaba would seem quite vulnerable to any external shock that hits Chinese consumers hard. Since the country has weathered the current pandemic quite well and continues to deliver above-average economic growth rates, I don't think this is a likely scenario in the foreseeable future, though.</p>\n<p>I don't see Alibaba as an especially risky investment at all, but these factors should still be considered before making an investment, as should other potential risks that could affect the company. One should mention, however, that the top US companies are also, at least to some extent, dependent on regulatory goodwill and could see an impact from an economic downturn, thus Alibaba is not necessarily a much riskier choice than Facebook, for example.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba is a high-growth player with a strong market position in a country that continues to deliver above-average economic growth. Alibaba has strong fundamentals, and yet it trades at a quite inexpensive valuation, both on an absolute basis as well as compared to how other mega-caps are valued.</p>\n<p>Alibaba isn't a risk-less stock, but the risks seem quite bearable to me. At just 17 times 2022's net earnings, Alibaba looks attractive to me. Since the Ant Financial and anti-monopoly issues have cleared up, I believe that Alibaba's shares could rise considerably from the current level, as sentiment hopefully improves. It would be great to see management encourage such an upward move by being more aggressive with share repurchases, but there is no guarantee for that.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The End Hasn't Come</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The End Hasn't Come\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-23 20:38 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420852-alibaba-the-end-hasnt-come><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba's shares are down a lot from last year's highs, as a reaction to the market worrying about a range of issues.\nNone of them seems to be too material, though, and the fear that has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420852-alibaba-the-end-hasnt-come\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420852-alibaba-the-end-hasnt-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1170805005","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba's shares are down a lot from last year's highs, as a reaction to the market worrying about a range of issues.\nNone of them seems to be too material, though, and the fear that has gripped the market has resulted in a quite inexpensive valuation.\nAlibaba is a high-growth mega-corp that trades like a low-growth company. This provides considerable upside potential in the long run.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba(NYSE:BABA)has widely underperformed the broad market and most of its tech peers over the last six months, mainly due to worries about regulatory pressures, anti-trust legalization, etc. Most of those issues have been resolved now, and it looks like Alibaba's value wasn't really damaged to a large degree. Alibaba remains a leading tech & consumer play in high-growth China that continues to trade at a clear discount compared to most US-based tech peers. There are risks, but Alibaba seems attractive at current prices.\nHundreds Of Billions Destroyed\nLooking at Alibaba's market capitalization over the last year, there is a very clear decline in how the market values the company over time:\nData by YCharts\nFrom a peak in fall 2020, Alibaba's market cap has declined by 25% or a little more than $200 billion to date. The reasoning for that is not based on any type of fundamental slow-down, revenue decline, or similar, showcased by Alibaba's excellent results during the most recent quarters:\nSource: Investor presentation\nNot only has Alibaba continued to deliver revenue growth of well above 30% since then, but the company also continued to make progress in attractive high-growth spaces such as cloud computing. Alibaba's cloud unit broke even for the first time since inception as its scale is increasing, which bodes well for the future bottom-line contribution of this unit. Last but not least, Alibaba's free cash flow generation remained strong, and its margins remained attractive.\nThus the big drop in the value the market ascribes to Alibaba's shares must have been caused by something else, which is market sentiment and psychology. Some negative news around Ant Financial's postponed IPO made the market fear looming regulatory pressures on Alibaba. This was exacerbated by anti-trust and anti-monopoly investigations. These were, of course, negatives, but not to the extent that the market priced them in.\nLooking at Alibaba's market capitalization, which declined by more than $200 billion over the last six months, one could assume that regulators would look to impose a fine of dozens or even hundreds of billions of dollars on Alibaba. That was, however, not the outcome of the investigations.\nThings Are Clearing Up For Alibaba\nInstead, Chinese regulators gave a slap on the wrist, seeking a$2.75 billion finefrom Alibaba. That sounds like a lot, but it really isn't all that much when we consider Alibaba's immense size:\nSource: Alibaba filing\nAlibaba generated cash of $15.8 billion through its operations during the most recent quarter, or a little over $5 billion a month. The fine that was imposed on the company thus is equal to about two weeks' worth of cash flows. Is that a positive? No, it's a negative. Is it a large negative? In fact, it seems barely noticeable compared to Alibaba's size. We can also look at how this fine compares to Alibaba's cash holding of more than $50 billion, and, once again, we are talking about a very minor fine relative to how the company is doing. What could be a company-breaking fine for any mid-sized business will barely leave a dent in Alibaba's cash holding, and with this issue being resolved now, it is no wonder that shares have jumped following the ruling.\nThe other theme that had pressured Alibaba's shares, Ant Financial's regulatory issues, has more or less been resolved as well. Ant Financial will be turned into a financial holding company, there will be some additional oversight, and there were some forced divestments. But this didn't break Ant Financial at all, and it seems questionable whether the hit to Alibaba's value was really all that material, as Alibaba is only a minority holder in Ant Financial anyways.\nAgain, these developments that occurred over the last six months aren't positives, but they are not extremely large negatives. A $200+ billion drop in Alibaba's market capitalization seemed way overblown. The good thing about market overreactions, however, is that one can use them to get attractive entry prices (in case markets are overreacting to the downside) or attractive exit prices (in cases where markets are too exuberant).\nIn Alibaba's case, the best time to load up on shares was when they traded for around $220 several times over the last six months. They have risen to a somewhat higher level since then, partially due to the market's realization that the $2.75 billion fine wasn't all that material, but Alibaba's shares are still looking quite inexpensive even now.\nAlibaba Is An Outstanding Value Among Tech Mega-Caps\nLooking at the largest companies in the world, by market capitalization, we see that most of them are tech companies, or at least tech-leaning, such as Tesla (TSLA). Alibaba stands out among those due to a quite low valuation:\nData by YCharts\nWhile others trade at 30-40 times net earnings mostly, with Amazon (AMZN) and especially Tesla trading at even higher valuations, Alibaba is valued at a very inexpensive 21 times forward earnings. This also represents a discount compared to broad US equity markets, which are trading for around 25 times forward earnings right now - at least partially due to the heavy weight of companies such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon, and Tesla.\nOne may be inclined to conclude that Alibaba is trading at the lowest valuation among those companies due to a below-average growth outlook or below-average fundamentals, but that isn't true.\nData by YCharts\nWhile the other mega-caps have grown by 5%-40% in 2020, with an average of around 20%, Alibaba has delivered revenue growth of 35%-50% in each quarter of the current fiscal year. Clearly, Alibaba is growing faster than the average mega-cap, and most analysts expect that this will not change any time soon.\nThanks to exposure to the high-growth, online-focused consumer market in its home country China, combined with excellent growth in additional franchises such as its cloud computing unit, Alibaba should be able to deliver compelling growth for the foreseeable future. Alibaba is an excellent play for the ongoing expansion of the Chinese economy, which just delivered record growth on a year-over-year basis.\nWith a clean balance sheet thanks to a $50+ billion cash position, strong free cash flows, and attractive margins, Alibaba also seems like a very appropriate choice from a quality perspective. To me, the company doesn't look inferior to the major US tech companies on that basis.\nRisks To Consider\nThere are, of course, still risks that one should consider before investing. It is possible that regulators demand more change from Alibaba, or impose additional fines, although that seems relatively unlikely for now as the current anti-monopoly investigation has just been concluded. Nevertheless, Alibaba is of course dependent to some degree on the goodwill of Chinese regulators and politicians.\nOn top of that, due to a consumer-focused business model, Alibaba would seem quite vulnerable to any external shock that hits Chinese consumers hard. Since the country has weathered the current pandemic quite well and continues to deliver above-average economic growth rates, I don't think this is a likely scenario in the foreseeable future, though.\nI don't see Alibaba as an especially risky investment at all, but these factors should still be considered before making an investment, as should other potential risks that could affect the company. One should mention, however, that the top US companies are also, at least to some extent, dependent on regulatory goodwill and could see an impact from an economic downturn, thus Alibaba is not necessarily a much riskier choice than Facebook, for example.\nTakeaway\nAlibaba is a high-growth player with a strong market position in a country that continues to deliver above-average economic growth. Alibaba has strong fundamentals, and yet it trades at a quite inexpensive valuation, both on an absolute basis as well as compared to how other mega-caps are valued.\nAlibaba isn't a risk-less stock, but the risks seem quite bearable to me. At just 17 times 2022's net earnings, Alibaba looks attractive to me. Since the Ant Financial and anti-monopoly issues have cleared up, I believe that Alibaba's shares could rise considerably from the current level, as sentiment hopefully improves. It would be great to see management encourage such an upward move by being more aggressive with share repurchases, but there is no guarantee for that.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":103047843,"gmtCreate":1619740930982,"gmtModify":1704271581484,"author":{"id":"3581636051286254","authorId":"3581636051286254","authorIdStr":"3581636051286254","name":"hunnejia","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acc3478e0e8659cb90673b155f884dc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636051286254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Swap comments anyone? ","listText":"Swap comments anyone? ","text":"Swap comments anyone?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103047843","repostId":"2131534297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3565606031340333","authorId":"3565606031340333","authorIdStr":"3565606031340333","name":"YaocH","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bd36b13b6f78e9fd2dc60b5637a51b9c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3565606031340333"},"content":"Pls return comment","text":"Pls return comment","html":"Pls return comment"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102862080,"gmtCreate":1620195029440,"gmtModify":1704340048888,"author":{"id":"3581636051286254","authorId":"3581636051286254","authorIdStr":"3581636051286254","name":"hunnejia","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acc3478e0e8659cb90673b155f884dc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636051286254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Return likes pls","listText":"Return likes pls","text":"Return likes pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102862080","repostId":"1199199416","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372496783,"gmtCreate":1619231666142,"gmtModify":1704721603073,"author":{"id":"3581636051286254","authorId":"3581636051286254","authorIdStr":"3581636051286254","name":"hunnejia","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acc3478e0e8659cb90673b155f884dc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581636051286254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yay! ","listText":"Yay! ","text":"Yay!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372496783","repostId":"1170805005","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1170805005","pubTimestamp":1619181499,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170805005?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 20:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The End Hasn't Come","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170805005","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba's shares are down a lot from last year's highs, as a reaction to the market worrying about a range of issues.None of them seems to be too material, though, and the fear that has gripped the market has resulted in a quite inexpensive valuation.Alibaba is a high-growth mega-corp that trades like a low-growth company. This provides considerable upside potential in the long run.Alibabahas widely underperformed the broad market and most of its tech peers over the last six months, mainly due t","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba's shares are down a lot from last year's highs, as a reaction to the market worrying about a range of issues.</li>\n <li>None of them seems to be too material, though, and the fear that has gripped the market has resulted in a quite inexpensive valuation.</li>\n <li>Alibaba is a high-growth mega-corp that trades like a low-growth company. This provides considerable upside potential in the long run.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e22edb23ea75da683065efacc8a826\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)has widely underperformed the broad market and most of its tech peers over the last six months, mainly due to worries about regulatory pressures, anti-trust legalization, etc. Most of those issues have been resolved now, and it looks like Alibaba's value wasn't really damaged to a large degree. Alibaba remains a leading tech & consumer play in high-growth China that continues to trade at a clear discount compared to most US-based tech peers. There are risks, but Alibaba seems attractive at current prices.</p>\n<p><b>Hundreds Of Billions Destroyed</b></p>\n<p>Looking at Alibaba's market capitalization over the last year, there is a very clear decline in how the market values the company over time:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2945ae7abd07b0f49f495052b1d48c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>From a peak in fall 2020, Alibaba's market cap has declined by 25% or a little more than $200 billion to date. The reasoning for that is not based on any type of fundamental slow-down, revenue decline, or similar, showcased by Alibaba's excellent results during the most recent quarters:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeea73c74f3890fadff9c321d70fdd47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"960\"><span>Source: Investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>Not only has Alibaba continued to deliver revenue growth of well above 30% since then, but the company also continued to make progress in attractive high-growth spaces such as cloud computing. Alibaba's cloud unit broke even for the first time since inception as its scale is increasing, which bodes well for the future bottom-line contribution of this unit. Last but not least, Alibaba's free cash flow generation remained strong, and its margins remained attractive.</p>\n<p>Thus the big drop in the value the market ascribes to Alibaba's shares must have been caused by something else, which is market sentiment and psychology. Some negative news around Ant Financial's postponed IPO made the market fear looming regulatory pressures on Alibaba. This was exacerbated by anti-trust and anti-monopoly investigations. These were, of course, negatives, but not to the extent that the market priced them in.</p>\n<p>Looking at Alibaba's market capitalization, which declined by more than $200 billion over the last six months, one could assume that regulators would look to impose a fine of dozens or even hundreds of billions of dollars on Alibaba. That was, however, not the outcome of the investigations.</p>\n<p><b>Things Are Clearing Up For Alibaba</b></p>\n<p>Instead, Chinese regulators gave a slap on the wrist, seeking a$2.75 billion finefrom Alibaba. That sounds like a lot, but it really isn't all that much when we consider Alibaba's immense size:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9777ed30a0bc29e8fdcd0373fe98e366\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"160\"><span>Source: Alibaba filing</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba generated cash of $15.8 billion through its operations during the most recent quarter, or a little over $5 billion a month. The fine that was imposed on the company thus is equal to about two weeks' worth of cash flows. Is that a positive? No, it's a negative. Is it a large negative? In fact, it seems barely noticeable compared to Alibaba's size. We can also look at how this fine compares to Alibaba's cash holding of more than $50 billion, and, once again, we are talking about a very minor fine relative to how the company is doing. What could be a company-breaking fine for any mid-sized business will barely leave a dent in Alibaba's cash holding, and with this issue being resolved now, it is no wonder that shares have jumped following the ruling.</p>\n<p>The other theme that had pressured Alibaba's shares, Ant Financial's regulatory issues, has more or less been resolved as well. Ant Financial will be turned into a financial holding company, there will be some additional oversight, and there were some forced divestments. But this didn't break Ant Financial at all, and it seems questionable whether the hit to Alibaba's value was really all that material, as Alibaba is only a minority holder in Ant Financial anyways.</p>\n<p>Again, these developments that occurred over the last six months aren't positives, but they are not extremely large negatives. A $200+ billion drop in Alibaba's market capitalization seemed way overblown. The good thing about market overreactions, however, is that one can use them to get attractive entry prices (in case markets are overreacting to the downside) or attractive exit prices (in cases where markets are too exuberant).</p>\n<p>In Alibaba's case, the best time to load up on shares was when they traded for around $220 several times over the last six months. They have risen to a somewhat higher level since then, partially due to the market's realization that the $2.75 billion fine wasn't all that material, but Alibaba's shares are still looking quite inexpensive even now.</p>\n<p><b>Alibaba Is An Outstanding Value Among Tech Mega-Caps</b></p>\n<p>Looking at the largest companies in the world, by market capitalization, we see that most of them are tech companies, or at least tech-leaning, such as Tesla (TSLA). Alibaba stands out among those due to a quite low valuation:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35e905980ec6f35fdbb0069b2386e4dd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"521\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>While others trade at 30-40 times net earnings mostly, with Amazon (AMZN) and especially Tesla trading at even higher valuations, Alibaba is valued at a very inexpensive 21 times forward earnings. This also represents a discount compared to broad US equity markets, which are trading for around 25 times forward earnings right now - at least partially due to the heavy weight of companies such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon, and Tesla.</p>\n<p>One may be inclined to conclude that Alibaba is trading at the lowest valuation among those companies due to a below-average growth outlook or below-average fundamentals, but that isn't true.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059736c2aa39c317943026b469331d00\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"504\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>While the other mega-caps have grown by 5%-40% in 2020, with an average of around 20%, Alibaba has delivered revenue growth of 35%-50% in each quarter of the current fiscal year. Clearly, Alibaba is growing faster than the average mega-cap, and most analysts expect that this will not change any time soon.</p>\n<p>Thanks to exposure to the high-growth, online-focused consumer market in its home country China, combined with excellent growth in additional franchises such as its cloud computing unit, Alibaba should be able to deliver compelling growth for the foreseeable future. Alibaba is an excellent play for the ongoing expansion of the Chinese economy, which just delivered record growth on a year-over-year basis.</p>\n<p>With a clean balance sheet thanks to a $50+ billion cash position, strong free cash flows, and attractive margins, Alibaba also seems like a very appropriate choice from a quality perspective. To me, the company doesn't look inferior to the major US tech companies on that basis.</p>\n<p><b>Risks To Consider</b></p>\n<p>There are, of course, still risks that one should consider before investing. It is possible that regulators demand more change from Alibaba, or impose additional fines, although that seems relatively unlikely for now as the current anti-monopoly investigation has just been concluded. Nevertheless, Alibaba is of course dependent to some degree on the goodwill of Chinese regulators and politicians.</p>\n<p>On top of that, due to a consumer-focused business model, Alibaba would seem quite vulnerable to any external shock that hits Chinese consumers hard. Since the country has weathered the current pandemic quite well and continues to deliver above-average economic growth rates, I don't think this is a likely scenario in the foreseeable future, though.</p>\n<p>I don't see Alibaba as an especially risky investment at all, but these factors should still be considered before making an investment, as should other potential risks that could affect the company. One should mention, however, that the top US companies are also, at least to some extent, dependent on regulatory goodwill and could see an impact from an economic downturn, thus Alibaba is not necessarily a much riskier choice than Facebook, for example.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba is a high-growth player with a strong market position in a country that continues to deliver above-average economic growth. Alibaba has strong fundamentals, and yet it trades at a quite inexpensive valuation, both on an absolute basis as well as compared to how other mega-caps are valued.</p>\n<p>Alibaba isn't a risk-less stock, but the risks seem quite bearable to me. At just 17 times 2022's net earnings, Alibaba looks attractive to me. Since the Ant Financial and anti-monopoly issues have cleared up, I believe that Alibaba's shares could rise considerably from the current level, as sentiment hopefully improves. It would be great to see management encourage such an upward move by being more aggressive with share repurchases, but there is no guarantee for that.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The End Hasn't Come</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The End Hasn't Come\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-23 20:38 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420852-alibaba-the-end-hasnt-come><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba's shares are down a lot from last year's highs, as a reaction to the market worrying about a range of issues.\nNone of them seems to be too material, though, and the fear that has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420852-alibaba-the-end-hasnt-come\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420852-alibaba-the-end-hasnt-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1170805005","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba's shares are down a lot from last year's highs, as a reaction to the market worrying about a range of issues.\nNone of them seems to be too material, though, and the fear that has gripped the market has resulted in a quite inexpensive valuation.\nAlibaba is a high-growth mega-corp that trades like a low-growth company. This provides considerable upside potential in the long run.\n\nPhoto by Andrew Burton/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba(NYSE:BABA)has widely underperformed the broad market and most of its tech peers over the last six months, mainly due to worries about regulatory pressures, anti-trust legalization, etc. Most of those issues have been resolved now, and it looks like Alibaba's value wasn't really damaged to a large degree. Alibaba remains a leading tech & consumer play in high-growth China that continues to trade at a clear discount compared to most US-based tech peers. There are risks, but Alibaba seems attractive at current prices.\nHundreds Of Billions Destroyed\nLooking at Alibaba's market capitalization over the last year, there is a very clear decline in how the market values the company over time:\nData by YCharts\nFrom a peak in fall 2020, Alibaba's market cap has declined by 25% or a little more than $200 billion to date. The reasoning for that is not based on any type of fundamental slow-down, revenue decline, or similar, showcased by Alibaba's excellent results during the most recent quarters:\nSource: Investor presentation\nNot only has Alibaba continued to deliver revenue growth of well above 30% since then, but the company also continued to make progress in attractive high-growth spaces such as cloud computing. Alibaba's cloud unit broke even for the first time since inception as its scale is increasing, which bodes well for the future bottom-line contribution of this unit. Last but not least, Alibaba's free cash flow generation remained strong, and its margins remained attractive.\nThus the big drop in the value the market ascribes to Alibaba's shares must have been caused by something else, which is market sentiment and psychology. Some negative news around Ant Financial's postponed IPO made the market fear looming regulatory pressures on Alibaba. This was exacerbated by anti-trust and anti-monopoly investigations. These were, of course, negatives, but not to the extent that the market priced them in.\nLooking at Alibaba's market capitalization, which declined by more than $200 billion over the last six months, one could assume that regulators would look to impose a fine of dozens or even hundreds of billions of dollars on Alibaba. That was, however, not the outcome of the investigations.\nThings Are Clearing Up For Alibaba\nInstead, Chinese regulators gave a slap on the wrist, seeking a$2.75 billion finefrom Alibaba. That sounds like a lot, but it really isn't all that much when we consider Alibaba's immense size:\nSource: Alibaba filing\nAlibaba generated cash of $15.8 billion through its operations during the most recent quarter, or a little over $5 billion a month. The fine that was imposed on the company thus is equal to about two weeks' worth of cash flows. Is that a positive? No, it's a negative. Is it a large negative? In fact, it seems barely noticeable compared to Alibaba's size. We can also look at how this fine compares to Alibaba's cash holding of more than $50 billion, and, once again, we are talking about a very minor fine relative to how the company is doing. What could be a company-breaking fine for any mid-sized business will barely leave a dent in Alibaba's cash holding, and with this issue being resolved now, it is no wonder that shares have jumped following the ruling.\nThe other theme that had pressured Alibaba's shares, Ant Financial's regulatory issues, has more or less been resolved as well. Ant Financial will be turned into a financial holding company, there will be some additional oversight, and there were some forced divestments. But this didn't break Ant Financial at all, and it seems questionable whether the hit to Alibaba's value was really all that material, as Alibaba is only a minority holder in Ant Financial anyways.\nAgain, these developments that occurred over the last six months aren't positives, but they are not extremely large negatives. A $200+ billion drop in Alibaba's market capitalization seemed way overblown. The good thing about market overreactions, however, is that one can use them to get attractive entry prices (in case markets are overreacting to the downside) or attractive exit prices (in cases where markets are too exuberant).\nIn Alibaba's case, the best time to load up on shares was when they traded for around $220 several times over the last six months. They have risen to a somewhat higher level since then, partially due to the market's realization that the $2.75 billion fine wasn't all that material, but Alibaba's shares are still looking quite inexpensive even now.\nAlibaba Is An Outstanding Value Among Tech Mega-Caps\nLooking at the largest companies in the world, by market capitalization, we see that most of them are tech companies, or at least tech-leaning, such as Tesla (TSLA). Alibaba stands out among those due to a quite low valuation:\nData by YCharts\nWhile others trade at 30-40 times net earnings mostly, with Amazon (AMZN) and especially Tesla trading at even higher valuations, Alibaba is valued at a very inexpensive 21 times forward earnings. This also represents a discount compared to broad US equity markets, which are trading for around 25 times forward earnings right now - at least partially due to the heavy weight of companies such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon, and Tesla.\nOne may be inclined to conclude that Alibaba is trading at the lowest valuation among those companies due to a below-average growth outlook or below-average fundamentals, but that isn't true.\nData by YCharts\nWhile the other mega-caps have grown by 5%-40% in 2020, with an average of around 20%, Alibaba has delivered revenue growth of 35%-50% in each quarter of the current fiscal year. Clearly, Alibaba is growing faster than the average mega-cap, and most analysts expect that this will not change any time soon.\nThanks to exposure to the high-growth, online-focused consumer market in its home country China, combined with excellent growth in additional franchises such as its cloud computing unit, Alibaba should be able to deliver compelling growth for the foreseeable future. Alibaba is an excellent play for the ongoing expansion of the Chinese economy, which just delivered record growth on a year-over-year basis.\nWith a clean balance sheet thanks to a $50+ billion cash position, strong free cash flows, and attractive margins, Alibaba also seems like a very appropriate choice from a quality perspective. To me, the company doesn't look inferior to the major US tech companies on that basis.\nRisks To Consider\nThere are, of course, still risks that one should consider before investing. It is possible that regulators demand more change from Alibaba, or impose additional fines, although that seems relatively unlikely for now as the current anti-monopoly investigation has just been concluded. Nevertheless, Alibaba is of course dependent to some degree on the goodwill of Chinese regulators and politicians.\nOn top of that, due to a consumer-focused business model, Alibaba would seem quite vulnerable to any external shock that hits Chinese consumers hard. Since the country has weathered the current pandemic quite well and continues to deliver above-average economic growth rates, I don't think this is a likely scenario in the foreseeable future, though.\nI don't see Alibaba as an especially risky investment at all, but these factors should still be considered before making an investment, as should other potential risks that could affect the company. One should mention, however, that the top US companies are also, at least to some extent, dependent on regulatory goodwill and could see an impact from an economic downturn, thus Alibaba is not necessarily a much riskier choice than Facebook, for example.\nTakeaway\nAlibaba is a high-growth player with a strong market position in a country that continues to deliver above-average economic growth. Alibaba has strong fundamentals, and yet it trades at a quite inexpensive valuation, both on an absolute basis as well as compared to how other mega-caps are valued.\nAlibaba isn't a risk-less stock, but the risks seem quite bearable to me. At just 17 times 2022's net earnings, Alibaba looks attractive to me. Since the Ant Financial and anti-monopoly issues have cleared up, I believe that Alibaba's shares could rise considerably from the current level, as sentiment hopefully improves. It would be great to see management encourage such an upward move by being more aggressive with share repurchases, but there is no guarantee for that.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
