cjp1987 personal page - To The Moon

cjp1987

No personal profile

5Follow

0Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2021-04-22

Nice

The Trade Desk Is Accelerating Out of the Pandemic

2021-04-22

Thanks for sharing

Li Auto: A Potentially Underappreciated Winner In China's EV Adoption

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3581835894164183","uuid":"3581835894164183","gmtCreate":1618742063618,"gmtModify":1618742063618,"name":"cjp1987","pinyin":"cjp1987","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":5,"tweetSize":2,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":376124091,"gmtCreate":1619099065313,"gmtModify":1704719625574,"author":{"id":"3581835894164183","authorId":"3581835894164183","name":"cjp1987","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581835894164183","authorIdStr":"3581835894164183"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376124091","repostId":"2129381480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129381480","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619091840,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2129381480?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-22 19:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Trade Desk Is Accelerating Out of the Pandemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129381480","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"And it's doing so profitably.","content":"<p>Even though <b>The Trade Desk</b> (NASDAQ:TTD) stock is down off its high of more than 25%, investors who've held for the last year are sitting on a delicous three-bagger. What does this programmatic advertising specialist have in store for shareholders going forward? On a <i>Fool Live</i>&nbsp;episode <b>recorded on March 31</b>, Fool contributors Brian Feroldi and Toby Bordleon discuss the company's latest results and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> risk for investors to keep an eye on.</p><p><b>Brian Feroldi:</b> Let's talk about The Trade Desk. Ticker symbol there is TTD. This is a software platform that enables ad buyers to programmatically buy ads all over the internet. The Trade Desk is not a disruptor, it's an enabler. They work with some of the biggest advertising agencies in the globe. Ad spending grown to a halt in the first part of 2020, and The Trade Desk definitely felt that pain on the top line, but holy cow, have things come back to life on the other side.</p><p>I think the numbers clearly show that not only is programmatic advertising picking up share, but The Trade Desk itself, which is already the top dog, is picking up share in its market. When you combine those things together, this company reported revenue growth of 48% in the most recent quarter. That's a very fast number and was a sequential acceleration.</p><p>This company is pumping out adjusted EBITDA margins. Not a metric I like, but roughly equivalent to cash flow, of 48%, that's like <b>MasterCard</b> level awesome awesomeness. That figure was up 900 basis points over the prior year. Huge top-line growth, widening margins, earnings more than doubled in this company to $184 million. That's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> thing that I've always admired about The Trade Desk. Not only is it in hyper-growth mode, but it's doing so profitably, how weird.</p><p>The big news out of the company to me in 2020 was it they're having success with their unified ID, which is a industrywide approach to advertising tracking. We've seen Google and <b>Apple</b> announce that they're going to be pulling back on IDFA. Unified ID is the industry solution to that that still allows for privacy and industry tracking, and they've signed up <b>Magnite</b>, <b>Criteo</b>, Washington Post, <b>Nielsen</b>, etc.</p><p>The thing to watch in 2021 and beyond is, will programmatic advertising continue to grow? Will customer retention get strong, and will unified ID become the industry standard? If the answer there is yes, Trade Desk looks primed for success.</p><p><b>Toby Bordelon:</b> Yeah, on that ID stuff, Brian. There's been a lot in the news recently about tech companies. Apple, Google cracking down on how other companies, advertisers can track people. I just saw a blog post from Google recently where they suddenly maybe not suddenly warn people about using alternatives like email addresses to track, and said basically maybe that's not the way you want to go. We don't think that's good. Do you think that's concern for The Trade Desk? How do they navigate this issue?</p><p><b>Feroldi:</b> Jeff Green has talked about this a lot because he has gotten a ton of investor questions about this very thing. One of the categories that they think is a huge growth driver for them in the long term is connected TV and connected audio. Those are ecosystems that Apple and Google do not dominate. Yes, they have huge control over the browser market, but I think that was like 20% of The Trade Desk's top-line spending. Jeff Green is hugely bullish on connected TV. That is a category where IDFA does not matter at all. I don't think it's something to be worried about. Advertisers are going to want to find ways to spend their money efficiently and connect. The unified ID will help them do that.</p><p>But is that a risk to watch? Absolutely.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Trade Desk Is Accelerating Out of the Pandemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Trade Desk Is Accelerating Out of the Pandemic\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-22 19:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/22/the-trade-desk-is-accelerating-out-of-the-pandemic/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Even though The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) stock is down off its high of more than 25%, investors who've held for the last year are sitting on a delicous three-bagger. What does this programmatic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/22/the-trade-desk-is-accelerating-out-of-the-pandemic/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TTD":"Trade Desk Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/22/the-trade-desk-is-accelerating-out-of-the-pandemic/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129381480","content_text":"Even though The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) stock is down off its high of more than 25%, investors who've held for the last year are sitting on a delicous three-bagger. What does this programmatic advertising specialist have in store for shareholders going forward? On a Fool Live episode recorded on March 31, Fool contributors Brian Feroldi and Toby Bordleon discuss the company's latest results and one risk for investors to keep an eye on.Brian Feroldi: Let's talk about The Trade Desk. Ticker symbol there is TTD. This is a software platform that enables ad buyers to programmatically buy ads all over the internet. The Trade Desk is not a disruptor, it's an enabler. They work with some of the biggest advertising agencies in the globe. Ad spending grown to a halt in the first part of 2020, and The Trade Desk definitely felt that pain on the top line, but holy cow, have things come back to life on the other side.I think the numbers clearly show that not only is programmatic advertising picking up share, but The Trade Desk itself, which is already the top dog, is picking up share in its market. When you combine those things together, this company reported revenue growth of 48% in the most recent quarter. That's a very fast number and was a sequential acceleration.This company is pumping out adjusted EBITDA margins. Not a metric I like, but roughly equivalent to cash flow, of 48%, that's like MasterCard level awesome awesomeness. That figure was up 900 basis points over the prior year. Huge top-line growth, widening margins, earnings more than doubled in this company to $184 million. That's one thing that I've always admired about The Trade Desk. Not only is it in hyper-growth mode, but it's doing so profitably, how weird.The big news out of the company to me in 2020 was it they're having success with their unified ID, which is a industrywide approach to advertising tracking. We've seen Google and Apple announce that they're going to be pulling back on IDFA. Unified ID is the industry solution to that that still allows for privacy and industry tracking, and they've signed up Magnite, Criteo, Washington Post, Nielsen, etc.The thing to watch in 2021 and beyond is, will programmatic advertising continue to grow? Will customer retention get strong, and will unified ID become the industry standard? If the answer there is yes, Trade Desk looks primed for success.Toby Bordelon: Yeah, on that ID stuff, Brian. There's been a lot in the news recently about tech companies. Apple, Google cracking down on how other companies, advertisers can track people. I just saw a blog post from Google recently where they suddenly maybe not suddenly warn people about using alternatives like email addresses to track, and said basically maybe that's not the way you want to go. We don't think that's good. Do you think that's concern for The Trade Desk? How do they navigate this issue?Feroldi: Jeff Green has talked about this a lot because he has gotten a ton of investor questions about this very thing. One of the categories that they think is a huge growth driver for them in the long term is connected TV and connected audio. Those are ecosystems that Apple and Google do not dominate. Yes, they have huge control over the browser market, but I think that was like 20% of The Trade Desk's top-line spending. Jeff Green is hugely bullish on connected TV. That is a category where IDFA does not matter at all. I don't think it's something to be worried about. Advertisers are going to want to find ways to spend their money efficiently and connect. The unified ID will help them do that.But is that a risk to watch? Absolutely.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376125950,"gmtCreate":1619099026270,"gmtModify":1704719624284,"author":{"id":"3581835894164183","authorId":"3581835894164183","name":"cjp1987","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581835894164183","authorIdStr":"3581835894164183"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376125950","repostId":"1162664133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162664133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619092751,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162664133?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-22 19:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Li Auto: A Potentially Underappreciated Winner In China's EV Adoption","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162664133","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAs China pushes for more EV adoption, Li looks to be an attractive long-term hold at the cu","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>As China pushes for more EV adoption, Li looks to be an attractive long-term hold at the current valuation.</li>\n <li>Profitability and positioning closest to annual profitability after posting a 2.8% net margin in Q4 '20 is a key differentiator against NIO and XPEV.</li>\n <li>Maintenance of this margin profile in the high-teens could see Li reach RMB1 billion of net income (US$150 million, $0.15 EPS) by FY23.</li>\n <li>LI trades at approximately 6.3x FY21 revenues and 3.2x FY22 revenues of US$5.25 billion on top of +99% y/y growth in deliveries for FY21.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/489c964ba7036802a04c5167a76b3850\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1065\"><span>Photo by Chesky_W/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>EV stocks continue to remain pressured recently, with the industry still facing constraints through chip shortages as well as macroeconomic and sentiment headwinds with multiple recent developments like the fatal Model S (TSLA) crash, QuantumScape's (QS) short reports, and more. The overall EV industry has yet to consolidate as significant expected growth has brought many new entrants to the market. A handful of names stand out as solid choices to capture such growth, especially in China, which has been touted as one of the largest and fastest growing markets for EV in particular. In terms of the main three startups, Li Auto's (LI) positioning closer to annual profitability with a \"cheaper\" valuation compared to NIO (NIO) and XPeng (XPEV) reaffirms a positive outlook with a valuation safety net.</p>\n<p><b>Deliveries Forecast</b></p>\n<p>Li followed in the footsteps of NIO and XPeng, bouncing back off weak&nbsp;February deliveries&nbsp;due to the New Year holiday and some outbreaks in the northern regions. Deliveries for Q1 rose to 12,579 units, as&nbsp;March deliveries&nbsp;rose to 4,900, +239% y/y. Although both the month and the quarter showed significant y/y growth, sequentially, deliveries did not fare as well. Q1's figure represented an 1,885 unit decline, -13% q/q, due to February impacts as well as below-average March sales, likely as a result of the chip shortage impacting the industry.</p>\n<p>Similar to NIO, Li could see some persistence of the chip headwind through Q2, and April's delivery numbers announced in a week and a half's time will bring light to the true scale of the impact to deliveries. With some near-term impacts ahead of strong seasonality trends in 2H, Li could see deliveries for FY21 reach 65,000 units, +99% y/y. Given China's projected units of 1.8 million in the overall EV market, Li would have about 3.6% share this year; with some of the sequential declines such as from December to January due to seasonality, Li's market share per month in NEV has taken some impacts due to quicker growth from GM (GM) and Wuling's Hongguang, BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and Tesla. In PHEV, Li remains a key player, commanding just over 13% share of deliveries.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1447e632e6936008c8a0eb18afb5a934\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Data from CAAM</span></p>\n<p>Even amid competition from BYD's Tang PHEV, Tang 600/600D, NIO's ES8, and Tesla's Model Y in the SUV/compact SUV segment, the Li ONE does have certain technological advantages (like an autonomous partnership with NVIDIA's (NVDA) Huizhou Desay) at a median price point of RMB328,000.High safety scores&nbsp;and an under-construction R&amp;D center for \"high-voltage platforms, ultra-fast charging technologies, autonomous driving technologies, next generation intelligent cockpits, operating systems and computing platforms\" could serve as differentiators and drivers for deliveries in this price segment.</p>\n<p><b>Revenues, Profitability and Valuation</b></p>\n<p>With a stronger seasonality forecast in 2H elevating sales near the projected figure of 65,000 units, Li could see revenues rise to RMB17.5-18.5 billion (US$2.7-2.85 billion). An uptick in services revenues could add an extra RMB300-700 million in revenues, a small addition but an addition nonetheless. Under these revenue projections, Li trades at approximately 6.3x FY21 revenues, and approximately 3.2x FY22 revenues of US$5.25 billion. Compared to peers, it's quite a lower valuation:XPeng&nbsp;trades at 11.9x FY21 revenues and 5.4x FY22, while&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;trades at 12.0x FY21 revenues and 6.3x FY22.</p>\n<p>NIO and XPeng trade at similar multiples, while Li trades below - this likely comes down to placement within the EV market. Li focuses on EREV, a form of PHEV, while NIO and XPeng are pure BEV. NIO earns a slight premium from being the leader in terms of deliveries and revenues of the three, while XPeng's multiples are similarly high due to technological lead and European expansion. Li is the first to reach profitability, posting a 2.8% net margin for Q4, which attests to the ability of the manufacturer to scale at cost efficiently, and consistently achieve breakeven (or minimal loss) quarters for the next twelve months.</p>\n<p>Unlike the other two, Li does not spend a ridiculous amount on R&amp;D, thus aiding a superior margin profile; total operating expenses were just 19.4% of revenues, with R&amp;D not even accounting for half of operating expenses. While Q1 and Q2 could see vehicle margin in the low 16% range, seasonality and higher volumes in 2H could push vehicle margin back up 17%, leaving FY vehicle margin at about 17%. Downside risk to margins remains elevated due to the chip shortage, impact to deliveries in Q1 and Q2, and planned build-out of sales, servicing, and R&amp;D facilities ahead of new models in 2022.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e447158b0c959311a96c7f701ed42c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\"><span>Projected calculations</span></p>\n<p>With this margin profile, Li could post approximately RMB200-300 million (US$31-46 million), or $0.03-0.05 per ADS, in net income for the FY, although operating performance during 1H will be a key factor. However, as deliveries scale higher during 2H and out through FY22 and beyond, maintenance of this margin profile in the high-teens could see Li reach RMB1 billion of net income (US$150 million, $0.15 EPS) by FY23.</p>\n<p><b>New Models</b></p>\n<p>Li touted that it would be expanding its vehicle line by one model per year from 2022 onward, with the current expected lineup sitting at four different vehicle models, with the first one a second EREV SUV with ADAS capabilities, possibly the XO1. Some of the later models could be full BEV as the company works towards transitioning to a full BEV model to comply with government regulations.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb3072b1fc2e7cbc4a0b4ef5f04c744\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"752\"><span>Graphic from CNTechPost</span></p>\n<p>While more details have yet to be announced, the leaked lineup does point to larger SUVs with the X01/X02, and smaller, cheaper SUVs, likely BEVs, with the S01/S02 targeting the Model X/Y.</p>\n<p>Li is continuing to focus on EREV with the second model in 2022 as the country's charging infrastructure is still not at the level that it should be to support an immediate transition to a full BEV environment. Li still has a solid market share in PHEV/EREV, of which it can target with the second model, given that this type of EV is still necessary in the transitory stage from ICE to BEV.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>EV manufacturers have shown that risks are quite plentiful, and Li does have risks associated with one of its key advantages - profitability - as well as other factors stemming from the industry.</p>\n<p>The crowded, ultra-competitive nature of EV, stemming from startups and legacy manufacturers all fighting for market share, elevates delivery growth risk if Li falls behind technologically ahead of a pure BEV launch some years down the road. Growth in micro EV segments has been strong and could be a continuing trend, which could keep Li's market share relative to the overall EV market at sub-3.5%.</p>\n<p>Another sector risk stems from the chip shortages, since China presents a different chip dynamic. China \"imports&nbsp;the vast majority of the chips used in car production, [and] until Chinese companies build up their own manufacturing capabilities... and speed up development of chips and operating systems,\" it could see risks for multiple years. Manufacturing chips in-house, similar to what XPeng is aiming to do, could significantly increase costs.</p>\n<p>Since Li lags NIO on deliveries and could start to lag XPeng soon due to both having similar full year delivery predictions, its push towards new models will come at a higher cost, one that could impact profitability. Li most likely will be increasing R&amp;D over the coming years to develop the four new models, with R&amp;D spend alone potentially reaching RMB500 million per quarter this year and nearly RMB1 billion per quarter by 2023/24. This could keep operating expense growth on a similar pace as revenue growth, thus limiting EPS growth or a sustained shift to profitability if operating expenses remain 20-25% of revenues.</p>\n<p>To raise cash for new model production, higher R&amp;D spend for BEV development and other corporate purposes, Li raised&nbsp;US$862.5 million&nbsp;from the fully exercised offering of its 0.25% 2028 convertible notes. NIO and XPeng have shown a tendency to tap into the debt markets before through convertibles, so Li could potentially add more debt to its relatively light balance sheet without harming its financial safety, but such potential additive dilution could have adverse impacts on shares.</p>\n<p><b>Overall</b></p>\n<p>Of the three major Chinese startups, Li has the most attractive, \"cheaper\" valuation, but its focus on EREV within the Li ONE and second model in 2022 could force the manufacturer to increase expenses at a cost to its superior margin profile to catch up in the BEV space in 2023 and beyond. Profitability and positioning closest to annual profitability after posting a 2.8% net margin in Q4 '20 is one key differentiator against NIO and XPeng, as the two spend significantly on R&amp;D to fuel expansion and technological innovation. Li could see some near-term headwinds to deliveries and market share from the chip shortage and fast growth from BYD's, Wuling's and Tesla's models, but margin expansion should be possible with strong seasonality in 2H. With deliveries expected to grow significantly this year and continue to rise as China pushes for more EV adoption, Li looks to be an attractive long-term hold at the current valuation.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto: A Potentially Underappreciated Winner In China's EV Adoption</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto: A Potentially Underappreciated Winner In China's EV Adoption\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-22 19:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420477-li-auto-potentially-underappreciated-winner-china-ev-adoption><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAs China pushes for more EV adoption, Li looks to be an attractive long-term hold at the current valuation.\nProfitability and positioning closest to annual profitability after posting a 2.8% ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420477-li-auto-potentially-underappreciated-winner-china-ev-adoption\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420477-li-auto-potentially-underappreciated-winner-china-ev-adoption","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1162664133","content_text":"Summary\n\nAs China pushes for more EV adoption, Li looks to be an attractive long-term hold at the current valuation.\nProfitability and positioning closest to annual profitability after posting a 2.8% net margin in Q4 '20 is a key differentiator against NIO and XPEV.\nMaintenance of this margin profile in the high-teens could see Li reach RMB1 billion of net income (US$150 million, $0.15 EPS) by FY23.\nLI trades at approximately 6.3x FY21 revenues and 3.2x FY22 revenues of US$5.25 billion on top of +99% y/y growth in deliveries for FY21.\n\nPhoto by Chesky_W/iStock via Getty Images\nEV stocks continue to remain pressured recently, with the industry still facing constraints through chip shortages as well as macroeconomic and sentiment headwinds with multiple recent developments like the fatal Model S (TSLA) crash, QuantumScape's (QS) short reports, and more. The overall EV industry has yet to consolidate as significant expected growth has brought many new entrants to the market. A handful of names stand out as solid choices to capture such growth, especially in China, which has been touted as one of the largest and fastest growing markets for EV in particular. In terms of the main three startups, Li Auto's (LI) positioning closer to annual profitability with a \"cheaper\" valuation compared to NIO (NIO) and XPeng (XPEV) reaffirms a positive outlook with a valuation safety net.\nDeliveries Forecast\nLi followed in the footsteps of NIO and XPeng, bouncing back off weak February deliveries due to the New Year holiday and some outbreaks in the northern regions. Deliveries for Q1 rose to 12,579 units, as March deliveries rose to 4,900, +239% y/y. Although both the month and the quarter showed significant y/y growth, sequentially, deliveries did not fare as well. Q1's figure represented an 1,885 unit decline, -13% q/q, due to February impacts as well as below-average March sales, likely as a result of the chip shortage impacting the industry.\nSimilar to NIO, Li could see some persistence of the chip headwind through Q2, and April's delivery numbers announced in a week and a half's time will bring light to the true scale of the impact to deliveries. With some near-term impacts ahead of strong seasonality trends in 2H, Li could see deliveries for FY21 reach 65,000 units, +99% y/y. Given China's projected units of 1.8 million in the overall EV market, Li would have about 3.6% share this year; with some of the sequential declines such as from December to January due to seasonality, Li's market share per month in NEV has taken some impacts due to quicker growth from GM (GM) and Wuling's Hongguang, BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and Tesla. In PHEV, Li remains a key player, commanding just over 13% share of deliveries.\nData from CAAM\nEven amid competition from BYD's Tang PHEV, Tang 600/600D, NIO's ES8, and Tesla's Model Y in the SUV/compact SUV segment, the Li ONE does have certain technological advantages (like an autonomous partnership with NVIDIA's (NVDA) Huizhou Desay) at a median price point of RMB328,000.High safety scores and an under-construction R&D center for \"high-voltage platforms, ultra-fast charging technologies, autonomous driving technologies, next generation intelligent cockpits, operating systems and computing platforms\" could serve as differentiators and drivers for deliveries in this price segment.\nRevenues, Profitability and Valuation\nWith a stronger seasonality forecast in 2H elevating sales near the projected figure of 65,000 units, Li could see revenues rise to RMB17.5-18.5 billion (US$2.7-2.85 billion). An uptick in services revenues could add an extra RMB300-700 million in revenues, a small addition but an addition nonetheless. Under these revenue projections, Li trades at approximately 6.3x FY21 revenues, and approximately 3.2x FY22 revenues of US$5.25 billion. Compared to peers, it's quite a lower valuation:XPeng trades at 11.9x FY21 revenues and 5.4x FY22, while NIO trades at 12.0x FY21 revenues and 6.3x FY22.\nNIO and XPeng trade at similar multiples, while Li trades below - this likely comes down to placement within the EV market. Li focuses on EREV, a form of PHEV, while NIO and XPeng are pure BEV. NIO earns a slight premium from being the leader in terms of deliveries and revenues of the three, while XPeng's multiples are similarly high due to technological lead and European expansion. Li is the first to reach profitability, posting a 2.8% net margin for Q4, which attests to the ability of the manufacturer to scale at cost efficiently, and consistently achieve breakeven (or minimal loss) quarters for the next twelve months.\nUnlike the other two, Li does not spend a ridiculous amount on R&D, thus aiding a superior margin profile; total operating expenses were just 19.4% of revenues, with R&D not even accounting for half of operating expenses. While Q1 and Q2 could see vehicle margin in the low 16% range, seasonality and higher volumes in 2H could push vehicle margin back up 17%, leaving FY vehicle margin at about 17%. Downside risk to margins remains elevated due to the chip shortage, impact to deliveries in Q1 and Q2, and planned build-out of sales, servicing, and R&D facilities ahead of new models in 2022.\nProjected calculations\nWith this margin profile, Li could post approximately RMB200-300 million (US$31-46 million), or $0.03-0.05 per ADS, in net income for the FY, although operating performance during 1H will be a key factor. However, as deliveries scale higher during 2H and out through FY22 and beyond, maintenance of this margin profile in the high-teens could see Li reach RMB1 billion of net income (US$150 million, $0.15 EPS) by FY23.\nNew Models\nLi touted that it would be expanding its vehicle line by one model per year from 2022 onward, with the current expected lineup sitting at four different vehicle models, with the first one a second EREV SUV with ADAS capabilities, possibly the XO1. Some of the later models could be full BEV as the company works towards transitioning to a full BEV model to comply with government regulations.\nGraphic from CNTechPost\nWhile more details have yet to be announced, the leaked lineup does point to larger SUVs with the X01/X02, and smaller, cheaper SUVs, likely BEVs, with the S01/S02 targeting the Model X/Y.\nLi is continuing to focus on EREV with the second model in 2022 as the country's charging infrastructure is still not at the level that it should be to support an immediate transition to a full BEV environment. Li still has a solid market share in PHEV/EREV, of which it can target with the second model, given that this type of EV is still necessary in the transitory stage from ICE to BEV.\nRisks\nEV manufacturers have shown that risks are quite plentiful, and Li does have risks associated with one of its key advantages - profitability - as well as other factors stemming from the industry.\nThe crowded, ultra-competitive nature of EV, stemming from startups and legacy manufacturers all fighting for market share, elevates delivery growth risk if Li falls behind technologically ahead of a pure BEV launch some years down the road. Growth in micro EV segments has been strong and could be a continuing trend, which could keep Li's market share relative to the overall EV market at sub-3.5%.\nAnother sector risk stems from the chip shortages, since China presents a different chip dynamic. China \"imports the vast majority of the chips used in car production, [and] until Chinese companies build up their own manufacturing capabilities... and speed up development of chips and operating systems,\" it could see risks for multiple years. Manufacturing chips in-house, similar to what XPeng is aiming to do, could significantly increase costs.\nSince Li lags NIO on deliveries and could start to lag XPeng soon due to both having similar full year delivery predictions, its push towards new models will come at a higher cost, one that could impact profitability. Li most likely will be increasing R&D over the coming years to develop the four new models, with R&D spend alone potentially reaching RMB500 million per quarter this year and nearly RMB1 billion per quarter by 2023/24. This could keep operating expense growth on a similar pace as revenue growth, thus limiting EPS growth or a sustained shift to profitability if operating expenses remain 20-25% of revenues.\nTo raise cash for new model production, higher R&D spend for BEV development and other corporate purposes, Li raised US$862.5 million from the fully exercised offering of its 0.25% 2028 convertible notes. NIO and XPeng have shown a tendency to tap into the debt markets before through convertibles, so Li could potentially add more debt to its relatively light balance sheet without harming its financial safety, but such potential additive dilution could have adverse impacts on shares.\nOverall\nOf the three major Chinese startups, Li has the most attractive, \"cheaper\" valuation, but its focus on EREV within the Li ONE and second model in 2022 could force the manufacturer to increase expenses at a cost to its superior margin profile to catch up in the BEV space in 2023 and beyond. Profitability and positioning closest to annual profitability after posting a 2.8% net margin in Q4 '20 is one key differentiator against NIO and XPeng, as the two spend significantly on R&D to fuel expansion and technological innovation. Li could see some near-term headwinds to deliveries and market share from the chip shortage and fast growth from BYD's, Wuling's and Tesla's models, but margin expansion should be possible with strong seasonality in 2H. With deliveries expected to grow significantly this year and continue to rise as China pushes for more EV adoption, Li looks to be an attractive long-term hold at the current valuation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":376125950,"gmtCreate":1619099026270,"gmtModify":1704719624284,"author":{"id":"3581835894164183","authorId":"3581835894164183","name":"cjp1987","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581835894164183","authorIdStr":"3581835894164183"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376125950","repostId":"1162664133","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376124091,"gmtCreate":1619099065313,"gmtModify":1704719625574,"author":{"id":"3581835894164183","authorId":"3581835894164183","name":"cjp1987","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581835894164183","authorIdStr":"3581835894164183"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376124091","repostId":"2129381480","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}