fate123 personal page - To The Moon

fate123

fate123

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06-19

Okok。。。。。。。。

05-04

Buy in may。。。。。

05-02

Buy in may!!!!!!!!!!!

03-23

Elon musk! I believe in tesla

03-03

42

02-18

123

02-15

dragon long!

01-18

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$

2023-12-09

Google may win Microsoft openai ,I believe in Google ,a good company

2023-12-09

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@MillionaireTiger:Do You Know the Feng Shui Secrets of the Stock Market?

2023-12-09

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@OptionsBB:COIN is expected to diverged, with bulls placing 150 bets and bears placing 25 bets

2021-05-01

Walau

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2021-04-30

1

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2021-04-28

1

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2021-04-27

1

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2021-04-26

1

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long!","listText":"dragon long!","text":"dragon long!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274297820938520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":264377093558528,"gmtCreate":1705564493401,"gmtModify":1705564497281,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d367e78775df90bfb9027e469d817cf2","width":"898","height":"1475"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264377093558528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":249993684389984,"gmtCreate":1702052733296,"gmtModify":1702052737349,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Google may win Microsoft openai ,I believe in Google ,a good company&nbsp;","listText":"Google may win Microsoft openai ,I believe in Google ,a good company&nbsp;","text":"Google may 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In the stock market, traders are not just crunching numbers; they're also deciphering the market trends with the help of Feng Shui. Yes, you heard it right – the ancient art of harmonizing energy is being employed to predict monthly stock market swings. Meanwhile, in China's A-share market, the colors on your dining table might be determining your financial fate. Red signals prosperity and market gains, while green is like the market's way of saying, \"See you later, alligator!\" And as known as \"cutting leeks.\" It's not about salad; it's about the stock market hustle. Buy a stock, get tangled up, trim your losses, repeat the cycle – it's like a","listText":"Welcome to Thursday Special!Ever wondered if there's a secret recipe for success in the stock market, like some mystical Feng Shui or superstitions? In the stock market, traders are not just crunching numbers; they're also deciphering the market trends with the help of Feng Shui. Yes, you heard it right – the ancient art of harmonizing energy is being employed to predict monthly stock market swings. Meanwhile, in China's A-share market, the colors on your dining table might be determining your financial fate. Red signals prosperity and market gains, while green is like the market's way of saying, \"See you later, alligator!\" And as known as \"cutting leeks.\" It's not about salad; it's about the stock market hustle. Buy a stock, get tangled up, trim your losses, repeat the cycle – it's like a","text":"Welcome to Thursday Special!Ever wondered if there's a secret recipe for success in the stock market, like some mystical Feng Shui or superstitions? In the stock market, traders are not just crunching numbers; they're also deciphering the market trends with the help of Feng Shui. Yes, you heard it right – the ancient art of harmonizing energy is being employed to predict monthly stock market swings. Meanwhile, in China's A-share market, the colors on your dining table might be determining your financial fate. Red signals prosperity and market gains, while green is like the market's way of saying, \"See you later, alligator!\" And as known as \"cutting leeks.\" It's not about salad; it's about the stock market hustle. Buy a stock, get tangled up, trim your losses, repeat the cycle – it's like a","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a72cb9a73b3583f19ba39830ea9d696f","width":"1280","height":"720"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3cb6b8b639e5287cf4d8beb6105b9e3","width":"2126","height":"1296"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0218f551a63816ed41e4b9602567705b","width":"640","height":"375"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/249530464354424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":249994081628320,"gmtCreate":1702052662630,"gmtModify":1702052666812,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/249994081628320","repostId":"249215372095560","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":249215372095560,"gmtCreate":1701875199999,"gmtModify":1701875257189,"author":{"id":"3527667645834579","authorId":"3527667645834579","name":"OptionsBB","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d77352af64bc1f2e2b196137b6c9a363","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667645834579","authorIdStr":"3527667645834579"},"themes":[],"title":"COIN is expected to diverged, with bulls placing 150 bets and bears placing 25 bets","htmlText":"The latest jobs data bolstered expectations of a Fed rate cut as soon as March, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.2 percent and Apple's market value topped $3 trillion for the first time since early August.On the data front, the number of job openings in the United States fell to 8.733 million in October, the lowest since early 2021, far below market expectations, while the number of hiring in the United States in October fell slightly to 5.9 million, while the number of quits rose slightly to 5.6 million, highlighting that the labor market may be gradually cooling.In political and economic terms, the last interest rate decision meeting of the year will be on December 12 to 13, the Fed officials are entering the silent period, the market forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates","listText":"The latest jobs data bolstered expectations of a Fed rate cut as soon as March, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.2 percent and Apple's market value topped $3 trillion for the first time since early August.On the data front, the number of job openings in the United States fell to 8.733 million in October, the lowest since early 2021, far below market expectations, while the number of hiring in the United States in October fell slightly to 5.9 million, while the number of quits rose slightly to 5.6 million, highlighting that the labor market may be gradually cooling.In political and economic terms, the last interest rate decision meeting of the year will be on December 12 to 13, the Fed officials are entering the silent period, the market forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates","text":"The latest jobs data bolstered expectations of a Fed rate cut as soon as March, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.2 percent and Apple's market value topped $3 trillion for the first time since early August.On the data front, the number of job openings in the United States fell to 8.733 million in October, the lowest since early 2021, far below market expectations, while the number of hiring in the United States in October fell slightly to 5.9 million, while the number of quits rose slightly to 5.6 million, highlighting that the labor market may be gradually cooling.In political and economic terms, the last interest rate decision meeting of the year will be on December 12 to 13, the Fed officials are entering the silent period, the market forecasts that the Fed will cut interest 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may win Microsoft openai ,I believe in Google ,a good company&nbsp;","listText":"Google may win Microsoft openai ,I believe in Google ,a good company&nbsp;","text":"Google may win Microsoft openai ,I believe in Google ,a good company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/249993684389984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":287154949800144,"gmtCreate":1711128778866,"gmtModify":1711128782634,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Elon musk! I believe in tesla","listText":"Elon musk! I believe in tesla","text":"Elon musk! I believe in tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/287154949800144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":302035603386488,"gmtCreate":1714758581784,"gmtModify":1714758585440,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy in may。。。。。","listText":"Buy in may。。。。。","text":"Buy in may。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/302035603386488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103871140,"gmtCreate":1619771736180,"gmtModify":1704272139794,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103871140","repostId":"1196589457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196589457","pubTimestamp":1619770710,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196589457?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-30 16:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"为什么我会说Amazon是最值得长期持有的股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196589457","media":"一亩三分地海外...","summary":"Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员，这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票，6年来从未抛售过","content":"<p>Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员，这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。</p><p>我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票，<b>6年来从未抛售过</b>，到今天来看ROI还不错，Amazon作为四个万亿俱乐部的成员之一，<b>在此次疫情中的表现也要好于其他三家</b>。</p><p>需要声明的是我本人并不在Amazon工作，恰恰相反的是我在Amazon最直接的竞争对手阿里巴巴工作超过四年，<b>在retail和cloud方面有一些浅见可以分享</b>，在此抛砖引玉，请各位大佬斧正 ：）</p><p><b>一、商业模式</b></p><p>对比Google超过90%的收入来自广告，Amazon的商业模式要<b>健康的多，也更多元化</b>。</p><p>除了最基本的营业收入，还包括Marketplace的commission，Amazon的ads业务也试水了一段时间了，我认为这是对Google最大的打击，因为越来越多的人选择直接在Amazon.com上搜索商品，而不是通过Google。</p><p>去年Pichai在国会反垄断质询时，就举了此例将祸水引向Amazon，除此之外还有Amazon最核心和最赚钱的<b>AWS业务</b>，AWS的revenue仅仅只占Amazon总体revenue的10%，<b>却贡献了Amazon总利润的60%+</b>，足可见cash cow的地位。</p><p>而AWS在云计算处于绝对垄断的地位，为什么Azure和GCP包括Alibaba Cloud不会对AWS构成威胁，我后面会详细展开。</p><p>创新业务方面，Amazon的Kindle、Alexa、Go Store都是同行业最大，做的最好的，收入的多元化，让Amazon有着更健康的商业模式。</p><p>值得一提的是，<b>Alibaba选择了一条跟Amazon完全不同的商业模式</b>，Alibaba是C2C，也就是第三方卖家主导，这是中国国情决定的，也是<b>Amazon败走中国的关键因素</b>。</p><p>Alibaba超过90%的收入也是来自广告，在cainiao网络成立之前，阿里是不碰物流的，全部外包给第三方物流公司。</p><p>随着时间的推移，我们发现对物流缺乏管控会大大损伤消费者的体验，所以这些年像天猫超市、天猫国际等等业务，<b>都是自采自销，由cn在各地的仓储统一发货</b>，其实淘宝天猫头部商家也会根据阿里提供的销售预测提前备货到cn本地仓，加快物流的履约。</p><p>这一套体系<b>基本是照搬Amazon Fullfillment</b>，因为Amazon在物流方面已经深耕多年，这个世界上不可能有第二个公司能比Amazon做的更好了</p><p><b>二、商业护城河</b></p><p>如果今天美团给你一张大额优惠券，你可能就不会用doordash了，但是如果有另一家小的电商网站比Amazon便宜10%，<b>你或许还是会用Amazon</b>，因为你不确定小的网站物流是否高效，商品质量是否有保证，售后服务是否有Amazon这么好，其中还包括对消费者隐私的保护，这就是商业的护城河。</p><p>在我看来，Amazon的北美地区具有极高的商业护城河，让其他的公司根本没办法参与竞争。</p><p>首先是对比实体商店Amazon拥有<b>更低廉的价格</b>，通过prime会员提供次日达、影视、音乐等服务，同时<b>售后退款政策好到令人发指</b>。</p><p>如果你去看Jeff Bezos 1999年的访谈，他就提到Amazon从来不会care竞争对手在做什么，而且一如既往的为客户提供最好的体验，并且Jeff多次提到不会care短期的利益，<b>而且专注长期的利益</b>，Amazon在上市的前八年从来没有盈利过，通过压低价格让竞争对手破产、或者无法进入这个领域。</p><p>同样的套路还适用于AWS的发展，在Google靠着点击广告的印钞机赚的盆满钵满之时，看着AWS微薄的利润，根本提不起兴趣，其实这都是Jeff的障眼法，<b>Amazon凭借优质的用户体验和多年不赚钱的代价构建起了极其宽广的护城河</b>。</p><p>过去的几年你经常看到Facebook因为Snap的大火而股价大跌，因为TikTok忧心忡忡，但是你基本看不到有什么公司来挑战Amazon，这就是行业的门槛。</p><p>在今天的北美电商市场，<b>已经不可能有公司能挑战Amazon了</b>，甚至都不可能有公司有兴趣进入这个行业，因为根本没什么机会，就单单这套Fullfillment的体系，没有200亿美金的投入就别想弄起来。</p><p><b>三、云计算</b></p><p>AWS的故事可以说是科技行业这十五年来最精彩和最富有传奇色彩的故事。</p><p>为了解决大促后服务器资源剩余的问题，Amazon的几个天才工程师提出了云计算这个概念，并且深深的影响了这个时代。</p><p>现在绝大部分创业公司，包括明星创业公司例如Airbnb、Uber等等都是run on AWS，<b>AWS可能会深刻变革程序员这个行业</b>，未来不再需要很多的程序员，对于中小型公司可能只需要1-2个精通AWS配置的程序员就足够了。</p><p>十几年前一位来自南非的天才工程师，希望能回家工作，因此向公司提出辞呈，<b>Amazon为了挽留这位工程师，决定在南非首都开普敦开设第一间位于非洲的研发中心</b>，最初的员工只有他一个人，就是在这个远离西雅图的office，开发出了AWS最核心的EC2产品，今天的AWS市场份额是剩余第二名到第十名加起来的总和还要多。</p><p>阿里云在中国处于绝对垄断地位，即使是这样，全球的份额却不到AWS的10%，营收和利润就差的更远，并且因为仅仅是local的业务，而AWS面向全球，未来的增长潜力也差出去很多。</p><p>为什么Azure和GCP都不是AWS的竞争对手呢？如果你参看微软的财报，微软是通过把office365的收入并表，借此来造成跟AWS差距在减少的假象，其实这是左手倒右手的把戏，并没有什么核心竞争力。</p><p>云计算最核心的是看Iaas层(Infrastructure as a service)的竞争，GCP和Azure根本上不了台面，Google效仿Azure将Google Suite的收入并表，带来股价的大涨，实际上后劲完全不足。</p><p>我记得我在阿里的时候，一位阿里云的高管就跟我说过，\"<b>在云计算这个行业，没有严格意义上的第二名，AWS代表整个行业</b>\"，事实上也确实如此。每次AWS reinvent上发布的新产品，总会在1-2年后出现在Azure和阿里云的产品库中。</p><p>就目前来看，微软、谷歌、阿里云在云计算方面并没有让我眼前一亮的产品，<b>谷歌其实是很有希望的</b>，在AWS Lambda横空出世之前Google的App Engine其实就是serverless的典型代表，可惜执行力差出去太多。</p><p>我曾经对GCP抱有希望，因为Google拥有深厚的技术功底，但是之前因为公司价值观退出国防部百亿美金大单的竞标，和一系列完全不成熟的行为，让我对GCP彻底丧失希望，云计算这块，谷歌不会做很久，不信我们拭目以待。</p><p>因为时间匆忙，就写这么多，其实Amazon还有很多很精彩的业务布局和技术探索值得讨论。</p><p>比如被Jeff认为和AWS同样重要的Prime业务，比如Amazon的无人机送货业务，比如AWS 的marketplace业务，云产品不同于实体商品，这个marketplace很retail marketplace完全不一样。</p><p>商业世界其实很精彩～</p>","source":"lsy1619143762088","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为什么我会说Amazon是最值得长期持有的股票</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为什么我会说Amazon是最值得长期持有的股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 16:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NuSd_KE4RUP_GOAf4IAzSQ><strong>一亩三分地海外...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员，这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票，6年来从未抛售过，到今天来看ROI还不错，Amazon作为四个万亿俱乐部的成员之一，在此次疫情中的表现也要好于其他三家。需要声明的是我本人并不在Amazon工作，恰恰相反的是我在Amazon最直接的竞争对手阿里巴巴...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NuSd_KE4RUP_GOAf4IAzSQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33a7c3b01fe631a9615e5ce7fd89ba66","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NuSd_KE4RUP_GOAf4IAzSQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196589457","content_text":"Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员，这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票，6年来从未抛售过，到今天来看ROI还不错，Amazon作为四个万亿俱乐部的成员之一，在此次疫情中的表现也要好于其他三家。需要声明的是我本人并不在Amazon工作，恰恰相反的是我在Amazon最直接的竞争对手阿里巴巴工作超过四年，在retail和cloud方面有一些浅见可以分享，在此抛砖引玉，请各位大佬斧正 ：）一、商业模式对比Google超过90%的收入来自广告，Amazon的商业模式要健康的多，也更多元化。除了最基本的营业收入，还包括Marketplace的commission，Amazon的ads业务也试水了一段时间了，我认为这是对Google最大的打击，因为越来越多的人选择直接在Amazon.com上搜索商品，而不是通过Google。去年Pichai在国会反垄断质询时，就举了此例将祸水引向Amazon，除此之外还有Amazon最核心和最赚钱的AWS业务，AWS的revenue仅仅只占Amazon总体revenue的10%，却贡献了Amazon总利润的60%+，足可见cash cow的地位。而AWS在云计算处于绝对垄断的地位，为什么Azure和GCP包括Alibaba Cloud不会对AWS构成威胁，我后面会详细展开。创新业务方面，Amazon的Kindle、Alexa、Go Store都是同行业最大，做的最好的，收入的多元化，让Amazon有着更健康的商业模式。值得一提的是，Alibaba选择了一条跟Amazon完全不同的商业模式，Alibaba是C2C，也就是第三方卖家主导，这是中国国情决定的，也是Amazon败走中国的关键因素。Alibaba超过90%的收入也是来自广告，在cainiao网络成立之前，阿里是不碰物流的，全部外包给第三方物流公司。随着时间的推移，我们发现对物流缺乏管控会大大损伤消费者的体验，所以这些年像天猫超市、天猫国际等等业务，都是自采自销，由cn在各地的仓储统一发货，其实淘宝天猫头部商家也会根据阿里提供的销售预测提前备货到cn本地仓，加快物流的履约。这一套体系基本是照搬Amazon Fullfillment，因为Amazon在物流方面已经深耕多年，这个世界上不可能有第二个公司能比Amazon做的更好了二、商业护城河如果今天美团给你一张大额优惠券，你可能就不会用doordash了，但是如果有另一家小的电商网站比Amazon便宜10%，你或许还是会用Amazon，因为你不确定小的网站物流是否高效，商品质量是否有保证，售后服务是否有Amazon这么好，其中还包括对消费者隐私的保护，这就是商业的护城河。在我看来，Amazon的北美地区具有极高的商业护城河，让其他的公司根本没办法参与竞争。首先是对比实体商店Amazon拥有更低廉的价格，通过prime会员提供次日达、影视、音乐等服务，同时售后退款政策好到令人发指。如果你去看Jeff Bezos 1999年的访谈，他就提到Amazon从来不会care竞争对手在做什么，而且一如既往的为客户提供最好的体验，并且Jeff多次提到不会care短期的利益，而且专注长期的利益，Amazon在上市的前八年从来没有盈利过，通过压低价格让竞争对手破产、或者无法进入这个领域。同样的套路还适用于AWS的发展，在Google靠着点击广告的印钞机赚的盆满钵满之时，看着AWS微薄的利润，根本提不起兴趣，其实这都是Jeff的障眼法，Amazon凭借优质的用户体验和多年不赚钱的代价构建起了极其宽广的护城河。过去的几年你经常看到Facebook因为Snap的大火而股价大跌，因为TikTok忧心忡忡，但是你基本看不到有什么公司来挑战Amazon，这就是行业的门槛。在今天的北美电商市场，已经不可能有公司能挑战Amazon了，甚至都不可能有公司有兴趣进入这个行业，因为根本没什么机会，就单单这套Fullfillment的体系，没有200亿美金的投入就别想弄起来。三、云计算AWS的故事可以说是科技行业这十五年来最精彩和最富有传奇色彩的故事。为了解决大促后服务器资源剩余的问题，Amazon的几个天才工程师提出了云计算这个概念，并且深深的影响了这个时代。现在绝大部分创业公司，包括明星创业公司例如Airbnb、Uber等等都是run on AWS，AWS可能会深刻变革程序员这个行业，未来不再需要很多的程序员，对于中小型公司可能只需要1-2个精通AWS配置的程序员就足够了。十几年前一位来自南非的天才工程师，希望能回家工作，因此向公司提出辞呈，Amazon为了挽留这位工程师，决定在南非首都开普敦开设第一间位于非洲的研发中心，最初的员工只有他一个人，就是在这个远离西雅图的office，开发出了AWS最核心的EC2产品，今天的AWS市场份额是剩余第二名到第十名加起来的总和还要多。阿里云在中国处于绝对垄断地位，即使是这样，全球的份额却不到AWS的10%，营收和利润就差的更远，并且因为仅仅是local的业务，而AWS面向全球，未来的增长潜力也差出去很多。为什么Azure和GCP都不是AWS的竞争对手呢？如果你参看微软的财报，微软是通过把office365的收入并表，借此来造成跟AWS差距在减少的假象，其实这是左手倒右手的把戏，并没有什么核心竞争力。云计算最核心的是看Iaas层(Infrastructure as a service)的竞争，GCP和Azure根本上不了台面，Google效仿Azure将Google Suite的收入并表，带来股价的大涨，实际上后劲完全不足。我记得我在阿里的时候，一位阿里云的高管就跟我说过，\"在云计算这个行业，没有严格意义上的第二名，AWS代表整个行业\"，事实上也确实如此。每次AWS reinvent上发布的新产品，总会在1-2年后出现在Azure和阿里云的产品库中。就目前来看，微软、谷歌、阿里云在云计算方面并没有让我眼前一亮的产品，谷歌其实是很有希望的，在AWS Lambda横空出世之前Google的App Engine其实就是serverless的典型代表，可惜执行力差出去太多。我曾经对GCP抱有希望，因为Google拥有深厚的技术功底，但是之前因为公司价值观退出国防部百亿美金大单的竞标，和一系列完全不成熟的行为，让我对GCP彻底丧失希望，云计算这块，谷歌不会做很久，不信我们拭目以待。因为时间匆忙，就写这么多，其实Amazon还有很多很精彩的业务布局和技术探索值得讨论。比如被Jeff认为和AWS同样重要的Prime业务，比如Amazon的无人机送货业务，比如AWS 的marketplace业务，云产品不同于实体商品，这个marketplace很retail marketplace完全不一样。商业世界其实很精彩～","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377058905,"gmtCreate":1619485823007,"gmtModify":1704724695886,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377058905","repostId":"2130934684","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101329745,"gmtCreate":1619848011187,"gmtModify":1704335732579,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Walau&nbsp;","listText":"Walau&nbsp;","text":"Walau","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101329745","repostId":"2131556829","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100875331,"gmtCreate":1619604498423,"gmtModify":1704726655172,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100875331","repostId":"1185431591","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185431591","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619604426,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185431591?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-28 18:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Spotify盘前跌超9%，月活数未及预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185431591","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三盘前，Spotify发布2021年第一季度财报：第一季度营收21.47亿欧元，同比增长16%。预期全年营收91.1亿-95.1亿欧元。第一季度净利润2300万欧元，去年净亏损1.25亿欧元。第一季","content":"<p>周三盘前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify</a>发布2021年第一季度财报：</p><ul><li>第一季度营收21.47亿欧元，同比增长16%。预期全年营收91.1亿-95.1亿欧元。</li><li>第一季度净利润2300万欧元，去年净亏损1.25亿欧元。</li><li>第一季度月活数3.56亿，市场预期3.62亿。预计全年平均月活为4.02亿-4.22亿，此前预期为4.63亿-4.77亿。</li></ul><p>Spotify维持全年总订阅用户数预期。</p><p>展望未来，公司预计2021年第二季度总MAU将在3.66-3.73亿之间，付费用户总数在1.62-1.66亿之间；预计总营收在21.6-23.6亿欧元之间，运营录得亏损在5400万-1.34亿欧元之间。</p><p>此外，公司小幅调低了全年MAU预期，预计2021年总MAU在4.02-4.22亿之间，付费用户总数在1.72-1.84亿之间；预计全年营收在9.11-9.51亿欧元之间，营运录得亏损在1.5-2.5亿欧元之间。</p><p>财报发布后，Spotify盘前跌超9%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/993d283be5a8acf2e1174a631833dd47\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"654\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpotify盘前跌超9%，月活数未及预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-28 18:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周三盘前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify</a>发布2021年第一季度财报：</p><ul><li>第一季度营收21.47亿欧元，同比增长16%。预期全年营收91.1亿-95.1亿欧元。</li><li>第一季度净利润2300万欧元，去年净亏损1.25亿欧元。</li><li>第一季度月活数3.56亿，市场预期3.62亿。预计全年平均月活为4.02亿-4.22亿，此前预期为4.63亿-4.77亿。</li></ul><p>Spotify维持全年总订阅用户数预期。</p><p>展望未来，公司预计2021年第二季度总MAU将在3.66-3.73亿之间，付费用户总数在1.62-1.66亿之间；预计总营收在21.6-23.6亿欧元之间，运营录得亏损在5400万-1.34亿欧元之间。</p><p>此外，公司小幅调低了全年MAU预期，预计2021年总MAU在4.02-4.22亿之间，付费用户总数在1.72-1.84亿之间；预计全年营收在9.11-9.51亿欧元之间，营运录得亏损在1.5-2.5亿欧元之间。</p><p>财报发布后，Spotify盘前跌超9%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/993d283be5a8acf2e1174a631833dd47\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"654\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c745ef400d724dab48d23dd56d9cede","relate_stocks":{"SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185431591","content_text":"周三盘前，Spotify发布2021年第一季度财报：第一季度营收21.47亿欧元，同比增长16%。预期全年营收91.1亿-95.1亿欧元。第一季度净利润2300万欧元，去年净亏损1.25亿欧元。第一季度月活数3.56亿，市场预期3.62亿。预计全年平均月活为4.02亿-4.22亿，此前预期为4.63亿-4.77亿。Spotify维持全年总订阅用户数预期。展望未来，公司预计2021年第二季度总MAU将在3.66-3.73亿之间，付费用户总数在1.62-1.66亿之间；预计总营收在21.6-23.6亿欧元之间，运营录得亏损在5400万-1.34亿欧元之间。此外，公司小幅调低了全年MAU预期，预计2021年总MAU在4.02-4.22亿之间，付费用户总数在1.72-1.84亿之间；预计全年营收在9.11-9.51亿欧元之间，营运录得亏损在1.5-2.5亿欧元之间。财报发布后，Spotify盘前跌超9%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374360683,"gmtCreate":1619419968142,"gmtModify":1704723555811,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374360683","repostId":"2130392457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2130392457","pubTimestamp":1619419383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2130392457?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储的下一步：“按兵不动”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2130392457","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"美国时间4月28日(北京时间4月29日凌晨)，美联储4月FOMC议息会议将至。在这之前，不妨对现阶段美国与国际经济环境、以及美联储正在承受的“压力”，做一些思考。虽然距离3月议息会议仅过去一个多月，但","content":"<p>美国时间4月28日(北京时间4月29日凌晨)，美联储4月FOMC议息会议将至。在这之前，不妨对现阶段美国与国际经济环境、以及美联储正在承受的“压力”，做一些思考。虽然距离3月议息会议仅过去一个多月，但期间美国与全球经济环境又生变化。具体有四方面变化，可能使维持宽松的美联储承受更大压力。</p>\n<p><b>一是，3月经济数据显著好于2月，美国或位于经济复苏的“转折点”。</b>截至目前，美国3月重点经济数据(如非农就业、PMI、零售销售、CPI/PPI等)均已公布，环比和同比均显著增长。美国2月和3月的经济数据差距明显，2月受极寒天气扰动、经济数据再度低迷，而3月数据普遍乐观，表现美国经济复苏之路重回正轨。而在低基数的“衬托”下，还难免让市场产生对美国经济恢复“过快”的怀疑。4月11日鲍威尔在CBS采访中表示，美国经济正处于一个“拐点”(inflection point)，“我们感觉我们正处在一个经济增长速度将大大加快、就业机会将大大增加的阶段。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3409f4db5d718187c19b464958503b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二是，3月以来国际大宗商品价格走强，再度加剧通胀压力。</b>近期大宗商品价格继续走高，例如3月以来伦铜和伦铝的价格比2月上了一个“台阶”，而4月以来食品、木材等基础商品涨价更明显，它们与大众消费品价格有较为直接的关联。微观层面，近一周媒体报道了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">宝洁</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>等零售商巨头正在酝酿涨价，原料价格向终端消费品价格的传导得以印证。</p>\n<p>在此背景下，大众对美国通胀的判断容易陷入分歧：是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者(由于“价格粘性”)物价上涨可能具有长期性。近一周媒体公布了鲍威尔在4月8日致参议员的信件，信中表示，不会允许通胀大幅超过2%，也不会允许通胀长时间超过2%，其言论似乎对通胀多了几分谨慎、少了几分此前的“淡定”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763590e0d0b48e730b789da1ca2653a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>三是，近期美债利率和美元指数下行，为政策转向创造了更大空间。</b>3月议息会议前，10年美债利率骤然攀升并引发股市震荡调整，当时市场还在期待美联储通过扭曲操作(OT)来救市，或至少宣布SLR延期。但4月以来，美债利率和美元指数均呈现下行走势，股市表现强劲。反而微观层面上，近期加密货币“大行其道”、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>受对冲基金爆仓拖累等事件，或反映出金融风险可能正在升温。无论如何，现阶段美联储政策转向所受束缚，至少比上月要小。</p>\n<p><b>四是，他国央行近期在政策转向上更积极，可能制造一些“同辈压力”。</b>3月17-19日巴西、土耳其和俄罗斯央行已为全球加息“打前站”。4月21日加拿大央行宣布开始缩减资产购买规模，且对加息时点的预期从2023年提前到2022年下半年。</p>\n<p>4月23日俄罗斯央行继续加息50bp至5%，加息幅度超预期的25bp。欧洲央行政策转向的路线图比美联储更清晰，其明确表示紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)或持续至2022年3月底。事实上，美国疫苗推广领跑全球，经济复苏的势头不比其他经济体弱，美联储比“同行”们更加温和，或容易引起质疑。</p>\n<p>不过综合考虑，我们认为，美联储4月议息会议大概率仍会选择“按兵不动”(不讨论削减QE)。</p>\n<p><b>首先，3月经济数据发展势头不错、但绝对值或仍不足以支撑政策转向。</b>就业方面，3月失业率(6%)与疫情前(3.5%)仍有较大差距;非农就业总人数(约14400万人)与疫情前(约15200万人)相比，仍有800万人的缺口;3月“小非农”(ADP就业)缺口约为900万人;近一周初请失业金人数和续请人数，分别仍为疫情前水平的2.5倍和2倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af569b7f374b046e9e45f10c58290353\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>其次，近期全球疫情反扑，或为美国经济复苏再添变数。</b>3月下旬欧洲疫情抬头，多国在封锁中度过复活节;4月以来、尤其近两周，亚洲地区疫情反扑，印度、日本等大型经济体受到更明显的冲击，全球经济复苏进程可能又被拖缓，美国或难独善其身。</p>\n<p><b>同时，美联储近期也表达出对疫情风险的关注。</b>鲍威尔在4月8日的IMF春季会议上表达对全球疫苗接种不同步的担忧;其在4月11日的采访中表示疫情重现是经济复苏前景面临的主要风险。在全球疫情反复的背景下，经济复苏势头的可持续性仍存变数，美联储的信心可能受限。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3158e71af7cd373cc5402a8aaa1849fa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>最后，从美联储近期释放的信号看，讨论缩减QE时点未至。</b>吸取了2013年伯南克的经验，鲍威尔多次表示削减QE前将释放大量信号，但近期的信号十分有限(仅达拉斯联储卡普兰在4月8日发表了“鹰派”言论)。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。</p>\n<p>根据我们的测算，美国实现75%人群接种需要到7月以后。此外，值得注意的是，未来一段时间美联储议息会议的频率较高，4月、6月和7月分别有三次会议。因此，美联储在6月或7月议息会议开始讨论缩减QE，或是更合理的选择。</p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储的下一步：“按兵不动”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储的下一步：“按兵不动”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-26 14:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/457533.html><strong>钟正生经济分析</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国时间4月28日(北京时间4月29日凌晨)，美联储4月FOMC议息会议将至。在这之前，不妨对现阶段美国与国际经济环境、以及美联储正在承受的“压力”，做一些思考。虽然距离3月议息会议仅过去一个多月，但期间美国与全球经济环境又生变化。具体有四方面变化，可能使维持宽松的美联储承受更大压力。\n一是，3月经济数据显著好于2月，美国或位于经济复苏的“转折点”。截至目前，美国3月重点经济数据(如非农就业、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/457533.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693d25b42fff03130f622d16b946b810","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/457533.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2130392457","content_text":"美国时间4月28日(北京时间4月29日凌晨)，美联储4月FOMC议息会议将至。在这之前，不妨对现阶段美国与国际经济环境、以及美联储正在承受的“压力”，做一些思考。虽然距离3月议息会议仅过去一个多月，但期间美国与全球经济环境又生变化。具体有四方面变化，可能使维持宽松的美联储承受更大压力。\n一是，3月经济数据显著好于2月，美国或位于经济复苏的“转折点”。截至目前，美国3月重点经济数据(如非农就业、PMI、零售销售、CPI/PPI等)均已公布，环比和同比均显著增长。美国2月和3月的经济数据差距明显，2月受极寒天气扰动、经济数据再度低迷，而3月数据普遍乐观，表现美国经济复苏之路重回正轨。而在低基数的“衬托”下，还难免让市场产生对美国经济恢复“过快”的怀疑。4月11日鲍威尔在CBS采访中表示，美国经济正处于一个“拐点”(inflection point)，“我们感觉我们正处在一个经济增长速度将大大加快、就业机会将大大增加的阶段。”\n\n二是，3月以来国际大宗商品价格走强，再度加剧通胀压力。近期大宗商品价格继续走高，例如3月以来伦铜和伦铝的价格比2月上了一个“台阶”，而4月以来食品、木材等基础商品涨价更明显，它们与大众消费品价格有较为直接的关联。微观层面，近一周媒体报道了宝洁、可口可乐等零售商巨头正在酝酿涨价，原料价格向终端消费品价格的传导得以印证。\n在此背景下，大众对美国通胀的判断容易陷入分歧：是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者(由于“价格粘性”)物价上涨可能具有长期性。近一周媒体公布了鲍威尔在4月8日致参议员的信件，信中表示，不会允许通胀大幅超过2%，也不会允许通胀长时间超过2%，其言论似乎对通胀多了几分谨慎、少了几分此前的“淡定”。\n\n三是，近期美债利率和美元指数下行，为政策转向创造了更大空间。3月议息会议前，10年美债利率骤然攀升并引发股市震荡调整，当时市场还在期待美联储通过扭曲操作(OT)来救市，或至少宣布SLR延期。但4月以来，美债利率和美元指数均呈现下行走势，股市表现强劲。反而微观层面上，近期加密货币“大行其道”、瑞银受对冲基金爆仓拖累等事件，或反映出金融风险可能正在升温。无论如何，现阶段美联储政策转向所受束缚，至少比上月要小。\n四是，他国央行近期在政策转向上更积极，可能制造一些“同辈压力”。3月17-19日巴西、土耳其和俄罗斯央行已为全球加息“打前站”。4月21日加拿大央行宣布开始缩减资产购买规模，且对加息时点的预期从2023年提前到2022年下半年。\n4月23日俄罗斯央行继续加息50bp至5%，加息幅度超预期的25bp。欧洲央行政策转向的路线图比美联储更清晰，其明确表示紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)或持续至2022年3月底。事实上，美国疫苗推广领跑全球，经济复苏的势头不比其他经济体弱，美联储比“同行”们更加温和，或容易引起质疑。\n不过综合考虑，我们认为，美联储4月议息会议大概率仍会选择“按兵不动”(不讨论削减QE)。\n首先，3月经济数据发展势头不错、但绝对值或仍不足以支撑政策转向。就业方面，3月失业率(6%)与疫情前(3.5%)仍有较大差距;非农就业总人数(约14400万人)与疫情前(约15200万人)相比，仍有800万人的缺口;3月“小非农”(ADP就业)缺口约为900万人;近一周初请失业金人数和续请人数，分别仍为疫情前水平的2.5倍和2倍。\n\n其次，近期全球疫情反扑，或为美国经济复苏再添变数。3月下旬欧洲疫情抬头，多国在封锁中度过复活节;4月以来、尤其近两周，亚洲地区疫情反扑，印度、日本等大型经济体受到更明显的冲击，全球经济复苏进程可能又被拖缓，美国或难独善其身。\n同时，美联储近期也表达出对疫情风险的关注。鲍威尔在4月8日的IMF春季会议上表达对全球疫苗接种不同步的担忧;其在4月11日的采访中表示疫情重现是经济复苏前景面临的主要风险。在全球疫情反复的背景下，经济复苏势头的可持续性仍存变数，美联储的信心可能受限。\n\n最后，从美联储近期释放的信号看，讨论缩减QE时点未至。吸取了2013年伯南克的经验，鲍威尔多次表示削减QE前将释放大量信号，但近期的信号十分有限(仅达拉斯联储卡普兰在4月8日发表了“鹰派”言论)。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。\n根据我们的测算，美国实现75%人群接种需要到7月以后。此外，值得注意的是，未来一段时间美联储议息会议的频率较高，4月、6月和7月分别有三次会议。因此，美联储在6月或7月议息会议开始讨论缩减QE，或是更合理的选择。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318300585361496,"gmtCreate":1718737955829,"gmtModify":1718737959676,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok。。。。。。。。","listText":"Okok。。。。。。。。","text":"Okok。。。。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/318300585361496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":301499266084904,"gmtCreate":1714627733739,"gmtModify":1714627737371,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy 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long!","listText":"dragon long!","text":"dragon long!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274297820938520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":264377093558528,"gmtCreate":1705564493401,"gmtModify":1705564497281,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d367e78775df90bfb9027e469d817cf2","width":"898","height":"1475"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264377093558528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":249993526865968,"gmtCreate":1702052670116,"gmtModify":1702052673039,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/249993526865968","repostId":"249530464354424","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":249530464354424,"gmtCreate":1701952035845,"gmtModify":1701952055947,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618821228","authorIdStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"Do You Know the Feng Shui Secrets of the Stock Market?","htmlText":"Welcome to Thursday Special!Ever wondered if there's a secret recipe for success in the stock market, like some mystical Feng Shui or superstitions? In the stock market, traders are not just crunching numbers; they're also deciphering the market trends with the help of Feng Shui. Yes, you heard it right – the ancient art of harmonizing energy is being employed to predict monthly stock market swings. Meanwhile, in China's A-share market, the colors on your dining table might be determining your financial fate. Red signals prosperity and market gains, while green is like the market's way of saying, \"See you later, alligator!\" And as known as \"cutting leeks.\" It's not about salad; it's about the stock market hustle. Buy a stock, get tangled up, trim your losses, repeat the cycle – it's like a","listText":"Welcome to Thursday Special!Ever wondered if there's a secret recipe for success in the stock market, like some mystical Feng Shui or superstitions? In the stock market, traders are not just crunching numbers; they're also deciphering the market trends with the help of Feng Shui. Yes, you heard it right – the ancient art of harmonizing energy is being employed to predict monthly stock market swings. Meanwhile, in China's A-share market, the colors on your dining table might be determining your financial fate. Red signals prosperity and market gains, while green is like the market's way of saying, \"See you later, alligator!\" And as known as \"cutting leeks.\" It's not about salad; it's about the stock market hustle. Buy a stock, get tangled up, trim your losses, repeat the cycle – it's like a","text":"Welcome to Thursday Special!Ever wondered if there's a secret recipe for success in the stock market, like some mystical Feng Shui or superstitions? In the stock market, traders are not just crunching numbers; they're also deciphering the market trends with the help of Feng Shui. Yes, you heard it right – the ancient art of harmonizing energy is being employed to predict monthly stock market swings. Meanwhile, in China's A-share market, the colors on your dining table might be determining your financial fate. Red signals prosperity and market gains, while green is like the market's way of saying, \"See you later, alligator!\" And as known as \"cutting leeks.\" It's not about salad; it's about the stock market hustle. Buy a stock, get tangled up, trim your losses, repeat the cycle – it's like a","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a72cb9a73b3583f19ba39830ea9d696f","width":"1280","height":"720"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3cb6b8b639e5287cf4d8beb6105b9e3","width":"2126","height":"1296"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0218f551a63816ed41e4b9602567705b","width":"640","height":"375"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/249530464354424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":249994081628320,"gmtCreate":1702052662630,"gmtModify":1702052666812,"author":{"id":"3581846048311533","authorId":"3581846048311533","name":"fate123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f6a4e7d021acf4da56c8358322dc28","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581846048311533","authorIdStr":"3581846048311533"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/249994081628320","repostId":"249215372095560","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":249215372095560,"gmtCreate":1701875199999,"gmtModify":1701875257189,"author":{"id":"3527667645834579","authorId":"3527667645834579","name":"OptionsBB","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d77352af64bc1f2e2b196137b6c9a363","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667645834579","authorIdStr":"3527667645834579"},"themes":[],"title":"COIN is expected to diverged, with bulls placing 150 bets and bears placing 25 bets","htmlText":"The latest jobs data bolstered expectations of a Fed rate cut as soon as March, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.2 percent and Apple's market value topped $3 trillion for the first time since early August.On the data front, the number of job openings in the United States fell to 8.733 million in October, the lowest since early 2021, far below market expectations, while the number of hiring in the United States in October fell slightly to 5.9 million, while the number of quits rose slightly to 5.6 million, highlighting that the labor market may be gradually cooling.In political and economic terms, the last interest rate decision meeting of the year will be on December 12 to 13, the Fed officials are entering the silent period, the market forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates","listText":"The latest jobs data bolstered expectations of a Fed rate cut as soon as March, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.2 percent and Apple's market value topped $3 trillion for the first time since early August.On the data front, the number of job openings in the United States fell to 8.733 million in October, the lowest since early 2021, far below market expectations, while the number of hiring in the United States in October fell slightly to 5.9 million, while the number of quits rose slightly to 5.6 million, highlighting that the labor market may be gradually cooling.In political and economic terms, the last interest rate decision meeting of the year will be on December 12 to 13, the Fed officials are entering the silent period, the market forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates","text":"The latest jobs data bolstered expectations of a Fed rate cut as soon as March, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.2 percent and Apple's market value topped $3 trillion for the first time since early August.On the data front, the number of job openings in the United States fell to 8.733 million in October, the lowest since early 2021, far below market expectations, while the number of hiring in the United States in October fell slightly to 5.9 million, while the number of quits rose slightly to 5.6 million, highlighting that the labor market may be gradually cooling.In political and economic terms, the last interest rate decision meeting of the year will be on December 12 to 13, the Fed officials are entering the silent period, the market forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa8045809adc539ba8f9d077357c8d8","width":"2308","height":"324"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d61ea9b175bed10ed12c77249a4c2f","width":"2302","height":"252"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70082237f7f9a25e56e852ad21aff5bb","width":"2296","height":"1340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/249215372095560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}