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一路向北666
2023-12-12
$迪士尼(DIS)$
一路向北666
2023-06-13
Ky jdjdbrhdudjjrksjdnj
一路向北666
2023-01-15
Interested game fun come all
一路向北666
2023-01-10
Very nice
一路向北666
2023-01-04
Ok
一路向北666
2023-01-03
The only
一路向北666
2023-01-01
Goal
一路向北666
2022-12-26
Good job
一路向北666
2022-12-23
OK
一路向北666
2022-12-12
👌
一路向北666
2022-12-11
Ky
一路向北666
2022-12-09
Zzzzz
一路向北666
2022-12-07
The
一路向北666
2022-12-05
Z
一路向北666
2022-12-02
Zz
一路向北666
2022-12-01
🀄️
一路向北666
2022-11-29
[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
一路向北666
2022-07-10
Z
@一路向北666:👌等你回來沒有的話
一路向北666
2022-05-30
Z
@经济观察报:清明上河圖是如何繪成的？（3）
一路向北666
2021-09-22
Rw
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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“支付宝崩了”？原来真的是抢红包导致的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-14 14:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>8月14日消息，支付宝官方微博宣布：<b>今天13点14分左右，由于大量用户涌入支付宝参与抢七夕红包活动，页面出现了短暂的不稳定，很快就恢复了。其他的支付宝服务也一切正常。</b></p>\n<p>今日，有许多网友反映支付宝页面进不去或者进去了没反应，随后话题“支付宝崩了”登上<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>热搜。有网友猜测，会不会是七夕红包发太多了导致的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b170cd822fbd50509a46a2a2182257\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"143\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a0b0db8875fcc1b244994517c9d7a74","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159639211","content_text":"8月14日消息，支付宝官方微博宣布：今天13点14分左右，由于大量用户涌入支付宝参与抢七夕红包活动，页面出现了短暂的不稳定，很快就恢复了。其他的支付宝服务也一切正常。\n今日，有许多网友反映支付宝页面进不去或者进去了没反应，随后话题“支付宝崩了”登上微博热搜。有网友猜测，会不会是七夕红包发太多了导致的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251303710875768,"gmtCreate":1702390800584,"gmtModify":1702390803199,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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重視教育是儒家文化源遠流長的傳統。早期的儒家先師無一不是偉大的教育家，可以說，無論是孔子、孟子，還是荀子，他們的身份首先是教師，其次纔是思想家。然而平心而論，在中國歷史上，尊師重教只能說是一種普遍的社會氛圍，真正有能力實踐它的只是少數精英。 而宋朝是一個鶴立雞羣的時代，在20世紀以前的華夏曆史上，它的教育普及程度堪稱前無古人、後無來者。 “興文教，抑武事”是貫穿整個宋代的立國之道。歷朝天子和朝廷都積極鼓勵辦學興教，這是宋代教育事業昌盛的政治前提。然而我認爲，這一根本國策能夠取得實際成效，而非流於一紙空文，歸根結底是因爲宋朝有着比其他任何朝代都更加雄厚的經濟實力。 在人類歷史的絕大多數時期，受教育一直是普通百姓可望不可即的奢侈品。昔日孟子教導君主時，將“謹庠序之教，申之以孝悌之義”這句話緊接在“五十者衣帛”、“七十者食肉”、“數口之家無飢”之後（《孟子·梁惠王上》），實際上說出了一條近乎於常識的真理：有了錢，才談得上興學。 宋代在中國歷史上頭一次建立起了完備的官辦教育體系，它由不同層次的各類學校構成—— 位於這個體系頂端的，除了專供皇族子弟就學的特殊的“宗子學”外，最高層的是國子監管轄下的各類學校，如國子學、太學、四門學、律學、武學、弘文館（廣文館學）等；次一層是朝廷各部門管理的專業類學校，如隸屬於太醫寺的醫學、隸屬於太史局的算學、隸屬於翰林院書藝局的書學、隸屬於翰林院畫圖局的畫學等。上述三種學校都屬“國家級”。 在地方這一層級上，則有官辦的府學、州學、縣學。 除此之外，還有專司“教導童稚”的官辦小學，它們多附於州學或縣學。 僅在北宋160年間，由官方推動的大規模興學熱潮就有三、四次。","text":"文/陳季冰 近來許多人喜歡說一句話：商業創造文明。 有宋一代，這句話得到了完美的證明——商業的繁榮促進了經濟增長，經濟的增長又顯著地推動了社會進步。而社會進步結出的首要碩果，便是教育的昌明。 重視教育是儒家文化源遠流長的傳統。早期的儒家先師無一不是偉大的教育家，可以說，無論是孔子、孟子，還是荀子，他們的身份首先是教師，其次纔是思想家。然而平心而論，在中國歷史上，尊師重教只能說是一種普遍的社會氛圍，真正有能力實踐它的只是少數精英。 而宋朝是一個鶴立雞羣的時代，在20世紀以前的華夏曆史上，它的教育普及程度堪稱前無古人、後無來者。 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14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"暂时停顿而已，价值股跑赢行情还未结束！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164615543","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，而非丧失了动能。苹果和特斯拉等股票近日再次领涨股市，引发了一些人对和经济形势密切相关的价值股的跑赢行情是否已经结束的质疑。不过，从市场最近的动向看，价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，","content":"<blockquote>价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，而非丧失了动能。</blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>等股票近日再次领涨股市，引发了一些人对和经济形势密切相关的价值股的跑赢行情是否已经结束的质疑。不过，从市场最近的动向看，价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，而非丧失了动能。</p><p>价值股从去年底开始上涨。有关新冠疫苗问世的消息提升了人们对全球经济强劲复苏的信心，并提振了金融、制造、能源和其他大宗商品相关公司的盈利前景。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa5720be71e09cdcb00e83d193d31439\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>不过，近期利率和通胀预期双双下降又引发了一轮市场逆转。过去一个月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>标普500价值股ETF（IVE）的涨幅为3.7%，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRW\">iShares</a>标普500成长股ETF（IVW）的涨幅却达到了7.7%。DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯（Nicholas Colas）在发给客户的报告中称，成长股近期跑赢大盘主要归功于五家公司：苹果（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>（MSFT）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>（AMZN）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet（GOOG）和特斯拉（TSLA）。</p><p>科拉斯写道，“短期而言，市场突然转向知名成长股通常不是一个好迹象。”他表示，在去年市场低迷之际，投资者纷纷买入大盘科技股。而最近资金回流大牌科技股的现象表明，在增持周期股之前，投资者对押注经济重启主题仍有所犹豫，他们可能在等待更多证据来证明经济复苏将会到来。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>财富管理分析师丽莎·沙莱特（Lisa Shalett）也对近期成长股反弹持怀疑态度，她不认为当前周期的经济反弹空间会变窄。如果经济反弹不及预期，美联储将不得不把利率维持在超低水平，这会对成长股更有利。</p><p>沙莱特在发给客户的报告中表示，她预计本轮商业周期的增长将比上一轮更为广泛和强劲，信贷增长可能会恢复。在这一轮增长中，财政政策——不管是增加政府支出还是其他刺激措施——可能推高通胀。</p><p>通货膨胀会导致利率上升，银行和大宗商品生产商将从中受益。</p><p>因此<b>，</b>她建议投资者转向<b>周期股、国际股、价值股和优质股</b>。</p><p>选择被动型基金的投资者的确更青睐价值股。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>的股票及量化策略师们表示，截至上周，价值股ETF已经连续12周录得资金净流入，相比之下，成长股ETF出现6周以来的最大资金净流出。</p><p>美国银行的策略师们因此认为，价值股上涨的空间更大。举例来说，价值股之前只比成长股高出20%，相比之下，成长股之前跑赢价值股的幅度为60%。此外，价值股跑赢成长股只出现在价值股复苏的第七个月，而此前成长股曾跑赢价值股长达33个月。价值股的利润增长也尚未见顶，基金经理对价值股的配置仍然较少，主动型基金对价值股的配置低大约30%左右。</p><p>虽然目前股市估值很高，但Centerstone Investors资深价值股基金经理和首席投资官阿布依·德什潘德（Abhay Deshpande）一直在全力投资股市。</p><p>Centerstone发现国际中小盘股正在浮现投资机会，其中包括小型新兴市场，由于投资者之前纷纷涌向大盘科技股和中国等大型新兴市场，国际中小盘股和小型新兴市场曾被投资者忽视。德什潘德认为，随着新冠疫苗的普及和全球经济的复苏，亚洲新兴市场的旅游业和博彩业将成为充满发展潜力和投资前景的领域。</p><p>GoodHaven基金经理拉里·皮考斯基（Larry Pitkowsky）同样认为当前股市估值很高，但他正在金融股中寻找自己青睐的优质价值股。皮考斯基认为，股市并没有完全反映利率上升将给金融股带来的利好，他正在增持保险公司Progressive（PGR）等股票。他说，Progressive的资本回报率高，收入持续增长，公司管理能力也很强，然而股价却比较低，市盈率仅在14倍到16倍之间。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>暂时停顿而已，价值股跑赢行情还未结束！</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n暂时停顿而已，价值股跑赢行情还未结束！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">巴伦周刊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-22 14:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，而非丧失了动能。</blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>等股票近日再次领涨股市，引发了一些人对和经济形势密切相关的价值股的跑赢行情是否已经结束的质疑。不过，从市场最近的动向看，价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，而非丧失了动能。</p><p>价值股从去年底开始上涨。有关新冠疫苗问世的消息提升了人们对全球经济强劲复苏的信心，并提振了金融、制造、能源和其他大宗商品相关公司的盈利前景。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa5720be71e09cdcb00e83d193d31439\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>不过，近期利率和通胀预期双双下降又引发了一轮市场逆转。过去一个月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>标普500价值股ETF（IVE）的涨幅为3.7%，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRW\">iShares</a>标普500成长股ETF（IVW）的涨幅却达到了7.7%。DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯（Nicholas Colas）在发给客户的报告中称，成长股近期跑赢大盘主要归功于五家公司：苹果（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>（MSFT）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>（AMZN）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet（GOOG）和特斯拉（TSLA）。</p><p>科拉斯写道，“短期而言，市场突然转向知名成长股通常不是一个好迹象。”他表示，在去年市场低迷之际，投资者纷纷买入大盘科技股。而最近资金回流大牌科技股的现象表明，在增持周期股之前，投资者对押注经济重启主题仍有所犹豫，他们可能在等待更多证据来证明经济复苏将会到来。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>财富管理分析师丽莎·沙莱特（Lisa Shalett）也对近期成长股反弹持怀疑态度，她不认为当前周期的经济反弹空间会变窄。如果经济反弹不及预期，美联储将不得不把利率维持在超低水平，这会对成长股更有利。</p><p>沙莱特在发给客户的报告中表示，她预计本轮商业周期的增长将比上一轮更为广泛和强劲，信贷增长可能会恢复。在这一轮增长中，财政政策——不管是增加政府支出还是其他刺激措施——可能推高通胀。</p><p>通货膨胀会导致利率上升，银行和大宗商品生产商将从中受益。</p><p>因此<b>，</b>她建议投资者转向<b>周期股、国际股、价值股和优质股</b>。</p><p>选择被动型基金的投资者的确更青睐价值股。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>的股票及量化策略师们表示，截至上周，价值股ETF已经连续12周录得资金净流入，相比之下，成长股ETF出现6周以来的最大资金净流出。</p><p>美国银行的策略师们因此认为，价值股上涨的空间更大。举例来说，价值股之前只比成长股高出20%，相比之下，成长股之前跑赢价值股的幅度为60%。此外，价值股跑赢成长股只出现在价值股复苏的第七个月，而此前成长股曾跑赢价值股长达33个月。价值股的利润增长也尚未见顶，基金经理对价值股的配置仍然较少，主动型基金对价值股的配置低大约30%左右。</p><p>虽然目前股市估值很高，但Centerstone Investors资深价值股基金经理和首席投资官阿布依·德什潘德（Abhay Deshpande）一直在全力投资股市。</p><p>Centerstone发现国际中小盘股正在浮现投资机会，其中包括小型新兴市场，由于投资者之前纷纷涌向大盘科技股和中国等大型新兴市场，国际中小盘股和小型新兴市场曾被投资者忽视。德什潘德认为，随着新冠疫苗的普及和全球经济的复苏，亚洲新兴市场的旅游业和博彩业将成为充满发展潜力和投资前景的领域。</p><p>GoodHaven基金经理拉里·皮考斯基（Larry Pitkowsky）同样认为当前股市估值很高，但他正在金融股中寻找自己青睐的优质价值股。皮考斯基认为，股市并没有完全反映利率上升将给金融股带来的利好，他正在增持保险公司Progressive（PGR）等股票。他说，Progressive的资本回报率高，收入持续增长，公司管理能力也很强，然而股价却比较低，市盈率仅在14倍到16倍之间。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"09086":"华夏纳指-U","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03086":"华夏纳指","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BAC":"美国银行","GOOG":"谷歌"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164615543","content_text":"价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，而非丧失了动能。苹果和特斯拉等股票近日再次领涨股市，引发了一些人对和经济形势密切相关的价值股的跑赢行情是否已经结束的质疑。不过，从市场最近的动向看，价值股的回归只是暂时停顿，而非丧失了动能。价值股从去年底开始上涨。有关新冠疫苗问世的消息提升了人们对全球经济强劲复苏的信心，并提振了金融、制造、能源和其他大宗商品相关公司的盈利前景。不过，近期利率和通胀预期双双下降又引发了一轮市场逆转。过去一个月iShares标普500价值股ETF（IVE）的涨幅为3.7%，而iShares标普500成长股ETF（IVW）的涨幅却达到了7.7%。DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯（Nicholas Colas）在发给客户的报告中称，成长股近期跑赢大盘主要归功于五家公司：苹果（AAPL）、微软（MSFT）、亚马逊（AMZN）、谷歌母公司Alphabet（GOOG）和特斯拉（TSLA）。科拉斯写道，“短期而言，市场突然转向知名成长股通常不是一个好迹象。”他表示，在去年市场低迷之际，投资者纷纷买入大盘科技股。而最近资金回流大牌科技股的现象表明，在增持周期股之前，投资者对押注经济重启主题仍有所犹豫，他们可能在等待更多证据来证明经济复苏将会到来。摩根士丹利财富管理分析师丽莎·沙莱特（Lisa Shalett）也对近期成长股反弹持怀疑态度，她不认为当前周期的经济反弹空间会变窄。如果经济反弹不及预期，美联储将不得不把利率维持在超低水平，这会对成长股更有利。沙莱特在发给客户的报告中表示，她预计本轮商业周期的增长将比上一轮更为广泛和强劲，信贷增长可能会恢复。在这一轮增长中，财政政策——不管是增加政府支出还是其他刺激措施——可能推高通胀。通货膨胀会导致利率上升，银行和大宗商品生产商将从中受益。因此，她建议投资者转向周期股、国际股、价值股和优质股。选择被动型基金的投资者的确更青睐价值股。美国银行的股票及量化策略师们表示，截至上周，价值股ETF已经连续12周录得资金净流入，相比之下，成长股ETF出现6周以来的最大资金净流出。美国银行的策略师们因此认为，价值股上涨的空间更大。举例来说，价值股之前只比成长股高出20%，相比之下，成长股之前跑赢价值股的幅度为60%。此外，价值股跑赢成长股只出现在价值股复苏的第七个月，而此前成长股曾跑赢价值股长达33个月。价值股的利润增长也尚未见顶，基金经理对价值股的配置仍然较少，主动型基金对价值股的配置低大约30%左右。虽然目前股市估值很高，但Centerstone Investors资深价值股基金经理和首席投资官阿布依·德什潘德（Abhay Deshpande）一直在全力投资股市。Centerstone发现国际中小盘股正在浮现投资机会，其中包括小型新兴市场，由于投资者之前纷纷涌向大盘科技股和中国等大型新兴市场，国际中小盘股和小型新兴市场曾被投资者忽视。德什潘德认为，随着新冠疫苗的普及和全球经济的复苏，亚洲新兴市场的旅游业和博彩业将成为充满发展潜力和投资前景的领域。GoodHaven基金经理拉里·皮考斯基（Larry Pitkowsky）同样认为当前股市估值很高，但他正在金融股中寻找自己青睐的优质价值股。皮考斯基认为，股市并没有完全反映利率上升将给金融股带来的利好，他正在增持保险公司Progressive（PGR）等股票。他说，Progressive的资本回报率高，收入持续增长，公司管理能力也很强，然而股价却比较低，市盈率仅在14倍到16倍之间。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950747929,"gmtCreate":1672845393061,"gmtModify":1676538746819,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok ","listText":"Ok ","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950747929","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920915436,"gmtCreate":1670418107125,"gmtModify":1676538363560,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The ","listText":"The ","text":"The","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920915436","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160576412,"gmtCreate":1623803252936,"gmtModify":1703819781746,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good good ","listText":"Good good ","text":"Good good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160576412","repostId":"2143757157","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143757157","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623802364,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143757157?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 08:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"瑞幸得到中国批准转出资金，达到重组协议的融资要求","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143757157","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"原标题：瑞幸得到中国批准转出资金 达到重组协议的融资要求 来源：腾讯新闻QQ音乐证券6月15日讯，瑞幸咖啡报告称，根据与4.6亿美元0.75%可转换优先票据持有人达成的重组支持协议，该公司已经达到协议规定的融资里程碑。公司完成了中国监管审批程序，通过计划性减资将部分资金转出中国。重组支持协议要求该公司获得合理的境外资金保证，其金额足以支付向票据持有人分配的现金对价。","content":"<p>6月15日讯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">瑞幸咖啡</a>报告称，根据与4.6亿美元0.75%可转换优先票据持有人达成的重组支持协议，该公司已经达到协议规定的融资里程碑。</p>\n<p>公司完成了中国监管审批程序，通过计划性减资将部分资金转出中国。</p>\n<p>重组支持协议要求该公司获得合理的境外资金保证，其金额足以支付向票据持有人分配的现金对价。</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞幸得到中国批准转出资金，达到重组协议的融资要求</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞幸得到中国批准转出资金，达到重组协议的融资要求\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 08:12 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-06-15/doc-ikqcfnca1220355.shtml><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月15日讯，瑞幸咖啡报告称，根据与4.6亿美元0.75%可转换优先票据持有人达成的重组支持协议，该公司已经达到协议规定的融资里程碑。\n公司完成了中国监管审批程序，通过计划性减资将部分资金转出中国。\n重组支持协议要求该公司获得合理的境外资金保证，其金额足以支付向票据持有人分配的现金对价。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-06-15/doc-ikqcfnca1220355.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d12f820102df1859c1d25e4011ee104","relate_stocks":{"LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-06-15/doc-ikqcfnca1220355.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143757157","content_text":"6月15日讯，瑞幸咖啡报告称，根据与4.6亿美元0.75%可转换优先票据持有人达成的重组支持协议，该公司已经达到协议规定的融资里程碑。\n公司完成了中国监管审批程序，通过计划性减资将部分资金转出中国。\n重组支持协议要求该公司获得合理的境外资金保证，其金额足以支付向票据持有人分配的现金对价。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107463763,"gmtCreate":1620529961652,"gmtModify":1704344659576,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107463763","repostId":"1175032729","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175032729","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620520193,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175032729?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-09 08:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏，5-6月市场波动可能加剧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175032729","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。\n\n事件：美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，失业率为6.1%，劳动参与率为61.7%。\n1、 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业拖后腿?美国4","content":"<blockquote>\n 如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。\n</blockquote>\n<p>事件：美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，失业率为6.1%，劳动参与率为61.7%。</p>\n<p><b>1、 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业拖后腿?</b>美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，就业缺口超820万人。4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。商品生产部门减少1.6万人，主要受制造业拖累;运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关;专业和商业服务业(“临时支持服务”)锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制。</p>\n<p><b>2、 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌。</b>第一，4月劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%。不过，4月劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。4月ADP私人部门新增就业74.2万人，高于前值56.5万人。最新初请失业金人数降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低。第三，非农数据初值的准确性有限。非农就业报告会按月被修正。对于4月数据，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时性，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不宜将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。</p>\n<p><b>3、 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注。</b>4月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增速大幅降落至1.15%，很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。美国财政部3月以来支出加速，3月TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减约3000亿美元。而政府支出可能对就业市场产生“反作用”，2020年4月以来政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢，劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口。</p>\n<p><b>4、 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极。</b>市场乐见就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，标普500指数再创新高;债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水;黄金期货价格明显受到提振;美元指数跳水。</p>\n<p><b>5、 警惕美国就业“非线性”复苏及相关风险，5-6月市场波动可能加剧。</b>考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，4月就业数据弱于3月有些出乎意料，意味着美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于线性外推思维，容易造成误判。市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。一个可能的情形是，5月就业数据可能大幅高于预期，届时市场对于货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点、引发市场波动。二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月美国PCE同比增速或达到3%。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动。</p>\n<p>1 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业在拖后腿?</p>\n<p>美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，目前就业缺口超820万人。美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。4月非农就业总人数为144.31万人，较前值144万人仅增加约3千人。目前，美国非农就业总人数比新冠疫情前(2020年2月)低821.5万人(图表1)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31d9d1bc09767085bc713950ea8463a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。4月新增的26.6万人中，有23.4万人来自服务业、比3月减少一半以上，4.8万人来自政府部门、比3月减少约1/4，而商品生产部门减少1.6万人、3月为增加16.6万人。4月商品生产部门就业主要受制造业(尤其耐用品制造)拖累(图表2);运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关，此前美联储亦曾提及供应链“瓶颈”;专业和商业服务业锐减7.9万人，其中“临时支持服务”锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。据美国劳工部(BLS)报告，“因经济原因从事非全日制工作”人数减少58万，原因是全职职位增加。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制(图表3)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7391ef70d5d9ffd318384b216952f3be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌</p>\n<p>4月非农初值可能并非美国就业市场恢复节奏的全貌，仍有一系列信号指向美国就业市场正在边际改善。</p>\n<p>第一，4月美国劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月美国失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%和市场预期的5.8%(图表4)。不过，4月美国劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人，虽然目前劳动力总人口仍比疫情前(2020年2月)低346万人(图表5)。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。此外，4月U6失业率(考虑更广义的失业人群)下降了0.3个百分点至10.4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9ad824a347d2937fd825a24c739c26f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。在非农数据前一天公布的“小非农”(ADP私人部门就业)数据显示，4月美国新增就业74.2万人，高于前值的56.5万人(图表6)。截至5月1日的一周，美国初请失业金人数继续下降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低，虽然该数字仍为疫情前水平的2.1倍。截至4月24日的一周，美国续请失业金人数为369万人，略高于前值的365万人，为疫情前水平的2.4倍(图表7)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8a3a0e2f0ec7f2c7c4b238cea62a11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>第三，需注意非农数据初值的准确性有限。5月7日美国财长耶伦讲话称，非农就业报告会按月被修正，不建议将某个月的数据视作潜在趋势。结合非农数据初值的结构性特点，我们认为，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不应将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。</p>\n<p>3 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注</p>\n<p>4月平均时薪同比增速大幅回落，主要是基数原因，实际薪资环比仍较快增长。疫情后劳动力市场供不应求，使美国非农员工平均时薪同比增速显著高于往年，3月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增长4.55%。4月这一增速大幅降落至1.15%(图表8)，但很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅(图表9)。4月每周工时与3月持平，但仍低于疫情前水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499046534ca554e77c8cb117cb01083f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美国财政部3月以来支出加速，可能对就业市场产生“反作用”。注意到，2021年3月以来美国财政部开始执行TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减计划，仅3月就支出了约3000亿美元(图表10)。我们在之前报告《美国的“慢就业”与“快通胀”》中指出，美国就业市场恢复整体偏慢，与其他经济指标所显示的“快复苏”背离，这一定程度上与美国大力度的财政刺激有关。2020年4月以来，政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢、劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口(图表11)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa89b00b22d2bd7e8def30542644a0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极</p>\n<p>市场显然乐见美国就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，三大股指齐涨，纳指、标普500和道指分别收涨0.88%、0.74%和0.66%(图表12);债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水、之后回升，最终收涨2bp，其中10年TIPS利率降2bp(图表13);黄金期货价格明显受到提振(图表14);美元指数跳水、收于90.24，为2月25日以来新低(图表15)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa756fa809932a70084916cd316142c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"941\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>5 警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏</p>\n<p>我们认为，未来1-2个月(5-6月)应警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏，及其可能带来的风险。</p>\n<p>4月美国非农就业数据明显弱于3月，考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，这一现象似乎有些始料未及。我们观察外媒报道，美国居民对新冠疫情的担忧依然是阻碍就业恢复的重要原因。此外，美国就业市场可能受到突发事件扰动(今年2月受恶劣天气影响、4月受供应链受阻影响等)。这些均意味着，美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。</p>\n<p>美国经济“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于“线性外推”思维，容易造成误判。例如，市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。市场基于3月91.6万的非农就业数据，预测4月非农新增100万，就是一个例子。<b>一个可能的情形是，市场对5月就业数据的预期降低，但实际数据可能大幅高于预期。</b>届时，市场对于美联储货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点，导致资产抛售与市场震荡。</p>\n<p><b>二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。</b>如果新冠疫情是阻碍美国就业恢复的主因，那么可以预计等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右，参考报告《美国离“群体免疫”还有多远?》)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。</p>\n<p><b>三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。</b>基于最新公布的3月PCE数据，以及美联储对于2021年PCE同比增速的预判(预测中值为2.4%)，我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月PCE同比增速或达到3%(图表16)。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动，值得警惕。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49dd065681f1d0a63d4960e36c6e256b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏，5-6月市场波动可能加剧</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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class=\"title\">\n警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏，5-6月市场波动可能加剧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-09 08:29 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html><strong>钟正生经济分析</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。\n\n事件：美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，失业率为6.1%，劳动参与率为61.7%。\n1、 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业拖后腿?美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，就业缺口超820万人。4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175032729","content_text":"如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。\n\n事件：美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，失业率为6.1%，劳动参与率为61.7%。\n1、 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业拖后腿?美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，就业缺口超820万人。4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。商品生产部门减少1.6万人，主要受制造业拖累;运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关;专业和商业服务业(“临时支持服务”)锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制。\n2、 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌。第一，4月劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%。不过，4月劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。4月ADP私人部门新增就业74.2万人，高于前值56.5万人。最新初请失业金人数降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低。第三，非农数据初值的准确性有限。非农就业报告会按月被修正。对于4月数据，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时性，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不宜将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3、 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注。4月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增速大幅降落至1.15%，很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。美国财政部3月以来支出加速，3月TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减约3000亿美元。而政府支出可能对就业市场产生“反作用”，2020年4月以来政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢，劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口。\n4、 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极。市场乐见就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，标普500指数再创新高;债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水;黄金期货价格明显受到提振;美元指数跳水。\n5、 警惕美国就业“非线性”复苏及相关风险，5-6月市场波动可能加剧。考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，4月就业数据弱于3月有些出乎意料，意味着美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于线性外推思维，容易造成误判。市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。一个可能的情形是，5月就业数据可能大幅高于预期，届时市场对于货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点、引发市场波动。二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月美国PCE同比增速或达到3%。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动。\n1 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业在拖后腿?\n美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，目前就业缺口超820万人。美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。4月非农就业总人数为144.31万人，较前值144万人仅增加约3千人。目前，美国非农就业总人数比新冠疫情前(2020年2月)低821.5万人(图表1)。\n\n制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。4月新增的26.6万人中，有23.4万人来自服务业、比3月减少一半以上，4.8万人来自政府部门、比3月减少约1/4，而商品生产部门减少1.6万人、3月为增加16.6万人。4月商品生产部门就业主要受制造业(尤其耐用品制造)拖累(图表2);运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关，此前美联储亦曾提及供应链“瓶颈”;专业和商业服务业锐减7.9万人，其中“临时支持服务”锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。据美国劳工部(BLS)报告，“因经济原因从事非全日制工作”人数减少58万，原因是全职职位增加。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制(图表3)。\n\n2 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌\n4月非农初值可能并非美国就业市场恢复节奏的全貌，仍有一系列信号指向美国就业市场正在边际改善。\n第一，4月美国劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月美国失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%和市场预期的5.8%(图表4)。不过，4月美国劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人，虽然目前劳动力总人口仍比疫情前(2020年2月)低346万人(图表5)。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。此外，4月U6失业率(考虑更广义的失业人群)下降了0.3个百分点至10.4%。\n\n第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。在非农数据前一天公布的“小非农”(ADP私人部门就业)数据显示，4月美国新增就业74.2万人，高于前值的56.5万人(图表6)。截至5月1日的一周，美国初请失业金人数继续下降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低，虽然该数字仍为疫情前水平的2.1倍。截至4月24日的一周，美国续请失业金人数为369万人，略高于前值的365万人，为疫情前水平的2.4倍(图表7)。\n\n第三，需注意非农数据初值的准确性有限。5月7日美国财长耶伦讲话称，非农就业报告会按月被修正，不建议将某个月的数据视作潜在趋势。结合非农数据初值的结构性特点，我们认为，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不应将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注\n4月平均时薪同比增速大幅回落，主要是基数原因，实际薪资环比仍较快增长。疫情后劳动力市场供不应求，使美国非农员工平均时薪同比增速显著高于往年，3月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增长4.55%。4月这一增速大幅降落至1.15%(图表8)，但很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅(图表9)。4月每周工时与3月持平，但仍低于疫情前水平。\n\n美国财政部3月以来支出加速，可能对就业市场产生“反作用”。注意到，2021年3月以来美国财政部开始执行TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减计划，仅3月就支出了约3000亿美元(图表10)。我们在之前报告《美国的“慢就业”与“快通胀”》中指出，美国就业市场恢复整体偏慢，与其他经济指标所显示的“快复苏”背离，这一定程度上与美国大力度的财政刺激有关。2020年4月以来，政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢、劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口(图表11)。\n\n4 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极\n市场显然乐见美国就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，三大股指齐涨，纳指、标普500和道指分别收涨0.88%、0.74%和0.66%(图表12);债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水、之后回升，最终收涨2bp，其中10年TIPS利率降2bp(图表13);黄金期货价格明显受到提振(图表14);美元指数跳水、收于90.24，为2月25日以来新低(图表15)。\n\n5 警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏\n我们认为，未来1-2个月(5-6月)应警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏，及其可能带来的风险。\n4月美国非农就业数据明显弱于3月，考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，这一现象似乎有些始料未及。我们观察外媒报道，美国居民对新冠疫情的担忧依然是阻碍就业恢复的重要原因。此外，美国就业市场可能受到突发事件扰动(今年2月受恶劣天气影响、4月受供应链受阻影响等)。这些均意味着，美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。\n美国经济“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于“线性外推”思维，容易造成误判。例如，市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。市场基于3月91.6万的非农就业数据，预测4月非农新增100万，就是一个例子。一个可能的情形是，市场对5月就业数据的预期降低，但实际数据可能大幅高于预期。届时，市场对于美联储货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点，导致资产抛售与市场震荡。\n二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。如果新冠疫情是阻碍美国就业恢复的主因，那么可以预计等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右，参考报告《美国离“群体免疫”还有多远?》)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。\n三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。基于最新公布的3月PCE数据，以及美联储对于2021年PCE同比增速的预判(预测中值为2.4%)，我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月PCE同比增速或达到3%(图表16)。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动，值得警惕。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376839677,"gmtCreate":1619101734399,"gmtModify":1704719698049,"author":{"id":"3581848121308128","authorId":"3581848121308128","name":"一路向北666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8e4f3400b2762d08a2a2e114cdcc8b9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581848121308128","authorIdStr":"3581848121308128"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tw","listText":"Tw","text":"Tw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376839677","repostId":"1194478269","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194478269","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619101374,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194478269?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-22 22:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"【异动】部分芯片股走低，美光科技跌超4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194478269","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月22日，部分芯片股盘中走低，美光科技、西部数据跌超4%，AMD、英特尔跌超1%。","content":"<p>4月22日，部分芯片股盘中走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>跌超1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1241a8d113977ddbf3ab43a3e3c30e06\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【异动】部分芯片股走低，美光科技跌超4%</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>跌超1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1241a8d113977ddbf3ab43a3e3c30e06\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" 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