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Gold Price Outlook: XAU Stumbles on Fed-Induced US Dollar Strength, NFPs Eyed

2021-08-04

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Why Clean Energy Fuels Has Plenty of Work To Do

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The Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman, Richard Clarida, caused Fed rate hike bets to strengthen on Wednesday. Mr. Clarida’s commentary suggested that economic conditions are on track to strengthen considerably, so much so that a possible taper timeline announcement is likely warranted later this year. The seasoned economist did acknowledge the growing threat posed by the highly transmissible Delta variant.</p>\n<p>Still, market participants pushed the US Dollar higher as already hawkish Fed bets intensified. The Greenback’s strength dragged gold prices lower. The yellow metal typically weakens when the Greenback strengthens due to higher holding costs for foreign investors. Gold is also seen as an inflation hedge to some, although that function is still up for debate in many circles. Consider that true, however, and the accelerated view of Fed tightening likely works to the detriment of gold prices. That is because higher interest rates typically tame rising prices.</p>\n<p>The current focus for gold likely isn’t on inflation, though. Besides, the market has largely capitulated to the Fed’s transitory view on rising prices. The big driver on the horizon for gold prices, and markets overall, is this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report (NFPs). Analysts are expecting a print of 870k jobs for July. Given the Fed’s focus on the labor market, the data print relative to the consensus view will likely be vital to monetary policy bets. With this in mind, a better-than-expected NFP print is likely to weigh on gold prices by driving USD strength. Alternatively, a miss may benefit the yellow metal.</p>\n<h3><b>GOLD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK</b></h3>\n<p>XAU prices were looking higher earlier this week but failed to sustain above the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). The falling 50-day SMA has capped the upside over the past couple of weeks, and now a Death Cross appears to be on the horizon. That would likely put bearish technical pressure on gold and possibly drag it back below the psychologically imposing 1800 level.</p>\n<p><b>GOLD DAILY CHART</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d9506a0f4126957d013a1f5804f3c69\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart created with TradingView</p>","source":"lsy1568971417606","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold Price Outlook: XAU Stumbles on Fed-Induced US Dollar Strength, NFPs Eyed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold Price Outlook: XAU Stumbles on Fed-Induced US Dollar Strength, NFPs Eyed\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 11:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/08/05/Gold-Price-Outlook-XAU-Stumbles-on-Fed-Induced-US-Dollar-Strength-NFPs-Eyed.html><strong>DailyFX</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GOLD, US DOLLAR, XAU/USD, FED BETS, DEATH CROSS – TALKING POINTS\n\nGold price stook hit after Fed’s Clarida fueled tightening bets\nFriday’s non-farm payrolls report likely vital to gold’s direction\nXAU...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/08/05/Gold-Price-Outlook-XAU-Stumbles-on-Fed-Induced-US-Dollar-Strength-NFPs-Eyed.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/08/05/Gold-Price-Outlook-XAU-Stumbles-on-Fed-Induced-US-Dollar-Strength-NFPs-Eyed.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179538570","content_text":"GOLD, US DOLLAR, XAU/USD, FED BETS, DEATH CROSS – TALKING POINTS\n\nGold price stook hit after Fed’s Clarida fueled tightening bets\nFriday’s non-farm payrolls report likely vital to gold’s direction\nXAU/USDsees a possible Death Cross formation on the horizon\n\nGold was on the run this week until it stumbled on a surge in the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman, Richard Clarida, caused Fed rate hike bets to strengthen on Wednesday. Mr. Clarida’s commentary suggested that economic conditions are on track to strengthen considerably, so much so that a possible taper timeline announcement is likely warranted later this year. The seasoned economist did acknowledge the growing threat posed by the highly transmissible Delta variant.\nStill, market participants pushed the US Dollar higher as already hawkish Fed bets intensified. The Greenback’s strength dragged gold prices lower. The yellow metal typically weakens when the Greenback strengthens due to higher holding costs for foreign investors. Gold is also seen as an inflation hedge to some, although that function is still up for debate in many circles. Consider that true, however, and the accelerated view of Fed tightening likely works to the detriment of gold prices. That is because higher interest rates typically tame rising prices.\nThe current focus for gold likely isn’t on inflation, though. Besides, the market has largely capitulated to the Fed’s transitory view on rising prices. The big driver on the horizon for gold prices, and markets overall, is this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report (NFPs). Analysts are expecting a print of 870k jobs for July. Given the Fed’s focus on the labor market, the data print relative to the consensus view will likely be vital to monetary policy bets. With this in mind, a better-than-expected NFP print is likely to weigh on gold prices by driving USD strength. Alternatively, a miss may benefit the yellow metal.\nGOLD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK\nXAU prices were looking higher earlier this week but failed to sustain above the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). The falling 50-day SMA has capped the upside over the past couple of weeks, and now a Death Cross appears to be on the horizon. That would likely put bearish technical pressure on gold and possibly drag it back below the psychologically imposing 1800 level.\nGOLD DAILY CHARTChart created with TradingView","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807734662,"gmtCreate":1628056727956,"gmtModify":1703500412431,"author":{"id":"3581931931647775","authorId":"3581931931647775","authorIdStr":"3581931931647775","name":"MSL2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f330f3c04f42cdfc6775b65093572b20","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581931931647775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807734662","repostId":"1177585640","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177585640","pubTimestamp":1628056440,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177585640?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 13:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Clean Energy Fuels Has Plenty of Work To Do","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177585640","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Clean Energy Fuels history of low to zero margins will keep the stock down unless they turn things a","content":"<p>Clean Energy Fuels history of low to zero margins will keep the stock down unless they turn things around</p>\n<p>Yes, it’s possible to invest in cow poo — or at least the product that is derived from it. Renewable natural gas (RNG) is a transportation fuel made from organic waste, primarily from cattle. Once it’s purified, this biomethane is chemically identical to the main ingredient in the fossil-based natural gas that comes out of a stove or heats residential water. The use of RNGs drastically reduces carbon emissions, and unlike conventional natural gas, RNG is not a fossil fuel and does not involve drilling. That said, the leader in this sector is&nbsp;<b>Clean Energy Fuels</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>CLNE</u></b>) — but CLNE stock may lose its one-year gains of the firm doesn’t figure things out.</p>\n<p>Overall, Clean Energy Fuels provides natural gas as an alternative fuel for vehicle fleets and related fueling solutions, primarily in the United States and Canada. It supplies RNG, compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles. Additionally, the company offers operation and maintenance services for public and private vehicle fleet customer stations.</p>\n<p>Moreover, the company also designs, builds, operates and maintains fueling stations. It also sells and services compressors and other equipment that are used in fueling stations, and provides assessment, design and modification solutions to offer operators with code-compliant service and maintenance facilities for natural gas vehicle fleets.</p>\n<p>Collectively, Clean Energy Fuels serves heavy-duty trucking, airports, refuse, public transit, industrial, and institutional energy users, as well as government fleets. As of December 31, 2020, it served approximately&nbsp;1,000 fleet customers&nbsp;operating approximately 48,000 vehicles. And it also owned, operated, or supplied approximately 565 fueling stations in 39 states in the United States and five provinces in Canada.</p>\n<p>The Opportunity and Benefit of Clean Energy</p>\n<p>According to the company, livestock manure and landfills account for 27% of methane emissions in the U.S. That said, this is the original source of where Clean Energy Fuels gets its RNG.</p>\n<p>When organic matter decays, it naturally produces methane — one of the greenhouse gases most detrimental to the environment. So, by capturing the methane, the company prevents it from entering and damaging the atmosphere. Then, they can then turn it into clean fuel for the transportation industry. That said, the transportation industry — as a whole — was responsible for&nbsp;29% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S.&nbsp;in 2019.</p>\n<p>This all sounds great, so there must be a catch. Well, the catch is that Clean Energy Fuels has been around a very long time, but still cant generate consistent high margin profits. That said, here is a very-detailed explanation of why the company is struggling in that department:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “…The only logical explanation is that Clean Energy&nbsp;owns a very small percentage&nbsp;of the 540 fueling stations spread across the USA. It operates, maintains and supplies the fueling station with natural gases at commodity prices plus charges for transportation, compression, storage and maintenance. While Clean Energy has adopted an excellent business model, unfortunately, it operates in an area of the value chain with minimal operating margins.”\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n “Over the past five years, Clean Energy Fuels has consistently failed to produce positive operating margins. While SG&amp;A (selling, general and administrative) expenses have fallen by roughly $5 million each of the previous three years, it hasn’t resulted in sustained positive margins. To help hide the negative operating and profit margins, management tends to focus on adjusted EBITDA. This is simply an alternate accounting method, which hides real world expenses and shouldn’t be considered a route to profitability.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Furthermore, analyst earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2021 and 2022 are only 3 cents and 4 cents, respectively, despite revenue estimates of about $323 and $364 million for the same period. So, although transportation issues were and are abundant during the novel coronavirus pandemic, the profitability issues don’t seem to be subsiding for Clean Energy Fuels.</p>\n<p><b>Bottom Line on CLNE Stock</b></p>\n<p>As a whole, Clean Energy stock was a Reddit meme driven favorite earlier in the year. In fact, shares are up more than 200% over the past year after hitting a high of $19.79 per share in February.</p>\n<p>However, CLNE stock has really taken a tumble in the months since — losing nearly 60% of its value. And unless the company offers a clear path to much higher margins, the stock will likely return to its long-term trading range of $2 to $3.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Clean Energy Fuels Has Plenty of Work To Do</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Clean Energy Fuels Has Plenty of Work To Do\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-04 13:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/08/clean-energy-fuels-clne-stock-continues-to-hunt-for-higher-margins/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Clean Energy Fuels history of low to zero margins will keep the stock down unless they turn things around\nYes, it’s possible to invest in cow poo — or at least the product that is derived from it. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/08/clean-energy-fuels-clne-stock-continues-to-hunt-for-higher-margins/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLNE":"Clean Energy Fuels Corp"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/08/clean-energy-fuels-clne-stock-continues-to-hunt-for-higher-margins/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177585640","content_text":"Clean Energy Fuels history of low to zero margins will keep the stock down unless they turn things around\nYes, it’s possible to invest in cow poo — or at least the product that is derived from it. Renewable natural gas (RNG) is a transportation fuel made from organic waste, primarily from cattle. Once it’s purified, this biomethane is chemically identical to the main ingredient in the fossil-based natural gas that comes out of a stove or heats residential water. The use of RNGs drastically reduces carbon emissions, and unlike conventional natural gas, RNG is not a fossil fuel and does not involve drilling. That said, the leader in this sector is Clean Energy Fuels(NASDAQ:CLNE) — but CLNE stock may lose its one-year gains of the firm doesn’t figure things out.\nOverall, Clean Energy Fuels provides natural gas as an alternative fuel for vehicle fleets and related fueling solutions, primarily in the United States and Canada. It supplies RNG, compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles. Additionally, the company offers operation and maintenance services for public and private vehicle fleet customer stations.\nMoreover, the company also designs, builds, operates and maintains fueling stations. It also sells and services compressors and other equipment that are used in fueling stations, and provides assessment, design and modification solutions to offer operators with code-compliant service and maintenance facilities for natural gas vehicle fleets.\nCollectively, Clean Energy Fuels serves heavy-duty trucking, airports, refuse, public transit, industrial, and institutional energy users, as well as government fleets. As of December 31, 2020, it served approximately 1,000 fleet customers operating approximately 48,000 vehicles. And it also owned, operated, or supplied approximately 565 fueling stations in 39 states in the United States and five provinces in Canada.\nThe Opportunity and Benefit of Clean Energy\nAccording to the company, livestock manure and landfills account for 27% of methane emissions in the U.S. That said, this is the original source of where Clean Energy Fuels gets its RNG.\nWhen organic matter decays, it naturally produces methane — one of the greenhouse gases most detrimental to the environment. So, by capturing the methane, the company prevents it from entering and damaging the atmosphere. Then, they can then turn it into clean fuel for the transportation industry. That said, the transportation industry — as a whole — was responsible for 29% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. in 2019.\nThis all sounds great, so there must be a catch. Well, the catch is that Clean Energy Fuels has been around a very long time, but still cant generate consistent high margin profits. That said, here is a very-detailed explanation of why the company is struggling in that department:\n\n “…The only logical explanation is that Clean Energy owns a very small percentage of the 540 fueling stations spread across the USA. It operates, maintains and supplies the fueling station with natural gases at commodity prices plus charges for transportation, compression, storage and maintenance. While Clean Energy has adopted an excellent business model, unfortunately, it operates in an area of the value chain with minimal operating margins.”\n\n\n “Over the past five years, Clean Energy Fuels has consistently failed to produce positive operating margins. While SG&A (selling, general and administrative) expenses have fallen by roughly $5 million each of the previous three years, it hasn’t resulted in sustained positive margins. To help hide the negative operating and profit margins, management tends to focus on adjusted EBITDA. This is simply an alternate accounting method, which hides real world expenses and shouldn’t be considered a route to profitability.”\n\nFurthermore, analyst earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2021 and 2022 are only 3 cents and 4 cents, respectively, despite revenue estimates of about $323 and $364 million for the same period. So, although transportation issues were and are abundant during the novel coronavirus pandemic, the profitability issues don’t seem to be subsiding for Clean Energy Fuels.\nBottom Line on CLNE Stock\nAs a whole, Clean Energy stock was a Reddit meme driven favorite earlier in the year. In fact, shares are up more than 200% over the past year after hitting a high of $19.79 per share in February.\nHowever, CLNE stock has really taken a tumble in the months since — losing nearly 60% of its value. And unless the company offers a clear path to much higher margins, the stock will likely return to its long-term trading range of $2 to $3.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805049107,"gmtCreate":1627828027009,"gmtModify":1703496343281,"author":{"id":"3581931931647775","authorId":"3581931931647775","authorIdStr":"3581931931647775","name":"MSL2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f330f3c04f42cdfc6775b65093572b20","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581931931647775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805049107","repostId":"1142925544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142925544?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p>\n<p>But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p>\n<p>August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p>\n<p>This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p>\n<p>August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p>\n<p>Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p>\n<p>The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p>\n<p>Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p>\n<p>To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p>\n<p>But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p>\n<p>How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p>\n<p>Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p>\n<p>Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-01 11:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802315276,"gmtCreate":1627718179795,"gmtModify":1703495176277,"author":{"id":"3581931931647775","authorId":"3581931931647775","authorIdStr":"3581931931647775","name":"MSL2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f330f3c04f42cdfc6775b65093572b20","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581931931647775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802315276","repostId":"1172839147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":807734662,"gmtCreate":1628056727956,"gmtModify":1703500412431,"author":{"id":"3581931931647775","authorId":"3581931931647775","authorIdStr":"3581931931647775","name":"MSL2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f330f3c04f42cdfc6775b65093572b20","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581931931647775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807734662","repostId":"1177585640","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812233741,"gmtCreate":1630589699483,"gmtModify":1676530348732,"author":{"id":"3581931931647775","authorId":"3581931931647775","authorIdStr":"3581931931647775","name":"MSL2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f330f3c04f42cdfc6775b65093572b20","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581931931647775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/812233741","repostId":"1108690074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899095570,"gmtCreate":1628140335790,"gmtModify":1703501980415,"author":{"id":"3581931931647775","authorId":"3581931931647775","authorIdStr":"3581931931647775","name":"MSL2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f330f3c04f42cdfc6775b65093572b20","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581931931647775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899095570","repostId":"1179538570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805049107,"gmtCreate":1627828027009,"gmtModify":1703496343281,"author":{"id":"3581931931647775","authorId":"3581931931647775","authorIdStr":"3581931931647775","name":"MSL2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f330f3c04f42cdfc6775b65093572b20","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581931931647775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805049107","repostId":"1142925544","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802315276,"gmtCreate":1627718179795,"gmtModify":1703495176277,"author":{"id":"3581931931647775","authorId":"3581931931647775","authorIdStr":"3581931931647775","name":"MSL2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f330f3c04f42cdfc6775b65093572b20","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581931931647775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802315276","repostId":"1172839147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}